Search results for: peak demand

Authors: S. Hamid Mirmohammadi, Shahrazad Tamjidzad

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This paper is concerned with the single-item continuous review inventory system in which demand is stochastic and discrete. The budget consumed for purchasing the ordered items is not restricted but it incurs extra cost when exceeding specific value. The unit purchasing price depends on the quantity ordered under the all-units discounts cost structure. In many actual systems, the budget as a resource which is occupied by the purchased items is limited and the system is able to confront the resource shortage by charging more costs. Thus, considering the resource shortage costs as a part of system costs, especially when the amount of resource occupied by the purchased item is influenced by quantity discounts, is well motivated by practical concerns. In this paper, an optimization problem is formulated for finding the optimal (R, Q) policy, when the system is influenced by the budget limitation and a discount pricing simultaneously. Properties of the cost function are investigated and then an algorithm based on a one-dimensional search procedure is proposed for finding an optimal (R, Q) policy which minimizes the expected system costs .

Keywords: (R, Q) policy, stochastic demand, backorders, limited resource, quantity discounts

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Authors: Thi Thanh Nga Pham, Damien Philippon, Alexis Drogoul, Thi Thu Thuy Nguyen, Tien Cong Nguyen

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Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam is recognized as one of the most vulnerable to climate change due to flooding and seawater rise and therefore an increased burden of climate change-related diseases. Changes in temperature and precipitation are likely to alter the incidence and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever. In this region, the peak of the dengue epidemic period is around July to September during the rainy season. It is believed that climate is an important factor for dengue transmission. This study aims to enhance the capacity of dengue prediction by the relationship of dengue incidences with climate and environmental variables for Mekong River Delta of Vietnam during 2005-2015. Mathematical models for vector-host infectious disease, including larva, mosquito, and human being were used to calculate the impacts of climate to the dengue transmission with incorporating geospatial data for model input. Monthly dengue incidence data were collected at provincial level. Precipitation data were extracted from satellite observations of GSMaP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation), land surface temperature and land cover data were from MODIS. The value of seasonal reproduction number was estimated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection, while the final infected number was derived to check the outbreak of dengue. The result shows that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of climate variables with the peak during the rainy season and predicted dengue incidence follows well with this dynamic for the whole studied region. However, the highest outbreak of 2007 dengue was not captured by the model reflecting nonlinear dependences of transmission on climate. Other possible effects will be discussed to address the limitation of the model. This suggested the need of considering of both climate variables and another variability across temporal and spatial scales.

Keywords: infectious disease, dengue, geospatial data, climate

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Authors: Gabriela Tutuanu

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The economic, social and environmental undesirable impact of the existing development pattern pushes to the adoption and use of a new development paradigm that of sustainable development. This paper intends to substantiate how the marketing can help the sustainable development. It begins with the subjects of sustainable development and sustainable marketing as they are discussed in literature. The sustainable development is a three dimensional concept which embeds the economic dimension, the social dimension and the environmental dimension that ask to have in view the simultaneous pursuit of economic prosperity, social equity and environmental quality. A major challenge to achieve these goals at business level and to integrate all three dimensions of sustainability is the sustainable marketing. The sustainable marketing is a relationship marketing that aims at building lasting relationships with the social and natural environment on a long-term thinking and futurity and this philosophy allows helping all three dimensions of sustainability. As marketing solutions that could contribute to the sustainable development. We advance the stimulation of sustainable demand, the constant innovation and improvement of sustainable products, the design and use of customized communication, a multichannel distribution network and the sale of sustainable products and services at fair prices. Their implementation will increase the economic, social and environmental sustainability at a large extent in the future if they are supported by political, governmental and legal authorities.

Keywords: sustainable development, sustainable marketing, sustainable demand, sustainable product, credible communication, multi-channel distribution network, fair price

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Authors: Katharina Eberhardt, Florian Klaus Kaiser, Frank Schultmann

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Last-mile distribution is one of the most critical parts of a disaster relief operation. Various uncertainties, such as infrastructure conditions, resource availability, and fluctuating beneficiary demand, render last-mile distribution challenging in disaster relief operations. The need to balance critical performance criteria like response time, meeting demand and cost-effectiveness further complicates the task. The occurrence of disasters cannot be controlled, and the magnitude is often challenging to assess. In summary, these uncertainties create a need for additional flexibility, agility, and preparedness in logistics operations. As a result, strategic planning and efficient network design are critical for an effective and efficient response. Furthermore, the increasing frequency of disasters and the rising cost of logistical operations amplify the need to provide robust and resilient solutions in this area. Therefore, we formulate a scenario-based bi-objective optimization model that integrates pre-positioning, allocation, and distribution of relief supplies extending the general form of a covering location problem. The proposed model aims to minimize underlying logistics costs while maximizing demand coverage. Using a set of disruption scenarios, the model allows decision-makers to identify optimal network solutions to address the risk of disruptions. We provide an empirical case study of the public authorities’ emergency food storage strategy in Germany to illustrate the potential applicability of the model and provide implications for decision-makers in a real-world setting. Also, we conduct a sensitivity analysis focusing on the impact of varying stockpile capacities, single-site outages, and limited transportation capacities on the objective value. The results show that the stockpiling strategy needs to be consistent with the optimal number of depots and inventory based on minimizing costs and maximizing demand satisfaction. The strategy has the potential for optimization, as network coverage is insufficient and relies on very high transportation and personnel capacity levels. As such, the model provides decision support for public authorities to determine an efficient stockpiling strategy and distribution network and provides recommendations for increased resilience. However, certain factors have yet to be considered in this study and should be addressed in future works, such as additional network constraints and heuristic algorithms.

Keywords: humanitarian logistics, bi-objective optimization, pre-positioning, last mile distribution, decision support, disaster relief networks

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Authors: Dae-Hee Son, Soon-Ryul Nam

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The power system frequency falls when disturbance such as rapid increase of system load or loss of a generating unit occurs in power systems. Especially, increase in the number of renewable generating units has a bad influence on the power system because of loss of generating unit depending on the circumstance. Conventional technologies use frequency droop control battery output for the frequency regulation and balance between supply and demand. If power is supplied using the fast output characteristic of the battery, power system stability can be further more improved. To improve the power system stability, we propose battery output control using ROCOF (Rate of Change of Frequency) in this paper. The bigger the power difference between the supply and the demand, the bigger the ROCOF drops. Battery output is controlled proportionally to the magnitude of the ROCOF, allowing for faster response to power imbalances. To simulate the control method of battery output system, we develop the user defined model using PSS/E and confirm that power system stability is improved by comparing with frequency droop control.

Keywords: PSS/E user defined model, power deviation, frequency droop control, ROCOF (rate of change of frequency)

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Authors: Rishi Sharma, S. N. Maiti

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The non-isothermal crystallization kinetics of PP/SEBS-g-MA blends up to 0-50% concentration of copolymer was studied by differential scanning calorimetry at four different cooling rates. Crystallization parameters were analyzed by Avrami and Jeziorny models. Primary and secondary crystallization processes were described by Avrami equation. Avrami model showed that all types of shapes grow from small dimensions during primary crystallization. However, three-dimensional crystal growth was observed during the secondary crystallization process. The crystallization peak and onset temperature decrease, however

Keywords: crystallization kinetics, non-isothermal, polypropylene, SEBS-g-MA

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Authors: Bharati Mehta, Manish Parakh, Bharti Bhandari, Sneha Ambwani

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Speech and language delay (SLD) is seen commonly as a co-morbidity in children having severe resistant focal and generalized, syndromic and symptomatic epilepsies. It is however not clear whether epilepsy contributes to or is a mere association in the pathogenesis of SLD. Also, it is acknowledged that Auditory Brainstem Evoked Responses (ABER), besides used for evaluating hearing threshold, also aid in prognostication of neurological disorders and abnormalities in the hearing pathway in the brainstem. There is no circumscribed or surrogate neurophysiologic laboratory marker to adjudge the extent of SLD. The current study was designed to evaluate the abnormalities in Electroencephalography (EEG) and ABER in children with SLD who do not have an overt hearing deficit or autism. 94 children of age group 2-8 years with predominant SLD and without any gross motor developmental delay, head injury, gross hearing disorder, cleft lip/palate and autism were selected. Standard video Electroencephalography using the 10:20 international system and ABER after click stimulus with intensities 110 db until 40 db was performed in all children. EEG was abnormal in 47.9% (n= 45; 36 boys and 9 girls) children. In the children with abnormal EEG, 64.5% (n=29) had an abnormal background, 57.8% (n=27) had presence of generalized interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs), 20% (n=9) had focal epileptiform discharges exclusively from left side and 33.3% (n=15) had multifocal IEDs occurring both in isolation or associated with generalised abnormalities. In ABER, surprisingly, the peak latencies for waves I, III & V, inter-peak latencies I-III & I-V, III-V and wave amplitude ratio V/I, were found within normal limits in both ears of all the children. Thus in the current study it is certain that presence of generalized IEDs in EEG are seen in higher frequency with SLD and focal IEDs are seen exclusively in left hemisphere in these children. It may be possible that even with generalized EEG abnormalities present in these children, left hemispheric abnormalities as a part of this generalized dysfunction may be responsible for the speech and language dysfunction. The current study also emphasizes that ABER may not be routinely recommended as diagnostic or prognostic tool in children with SLD without frank hearing deficit or autism, thus reducing the burden on electro physiologists, laboratories and saving time and financial resources.

Keywords: ABER, EEG, speech, language delay

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Authors: Kushal Kumar Chode

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Increase in demand for fuel saving and demand for faster vehicles with decent fuel economy, researchers around the world started investigating in various passive flow control devices to improve the fuel efficiency of vehicles. In this paper, A roof fairing was investigated for reducing the aerodynamic drag of a bluff body. The bluff body considered for this work is Ahmed model with a rake angle of 25deg was and subjected to flow with a velocity of 40m/s having Reynolds number of 2.68million was analysed using a commercial Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) code Star CCM+. It was evident that pressure drag is the main source of drag on an Ahmed body from the initial study. Adding a roof fairing has delayed the flow separation and resulted in delaying wake formation, thus improving the pressure in near weak and reducing the wake region. Adding a roof fairing of height and length equal to 1/7H and 1/3L respectively has shown a drag reduction by 9%. However, an optimised fairing, which was obtained by changing height, length and width by 5% increase, recorded a drag reduction close 12%.

Keywords: Ahmed model, aerodynamic drag, passive flow control, roof fairing, wake formation

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Authors: G. Alston Rush, Gus A. Rush III, M. F. Horstemeyer

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This study compares the shell-facemask responses of four commonly used American football helmets, under the National Operating Committee on Standards for Athletic Equipment (NOCSAE) drop impact test method, to show that the test standard would more accurately simulate in-use conditions by modification to include the facemask. In our study, the need for a more vigorous systematic approach to football helmet testing procedures is emphasized by comparing the Head Injury Criterion (HIC), the Gadd Severity Index (SI), and peak acceleration values for different helmets at different locations on the helmet under modified NOCSAE standard drop tower tests. Drop tests were performed on the Rawlings Quantum Plus, Riddell 360, Schutt Ion 4D, and Xenith X2 helmets at eight impact locations, impact velocities of 5.46 and 4.88 meters per second, and helmet configurations with and without facemasks. Analysis of NOCSAE drop test results reveal significant differences (p < 0.05) for when the facemasks were attached to helmets, as compared to the NOCSAE Standard, without facemask configuration. The boundary conditions of the facemask attachment can have up to a 50% decrease (p < 0.001) in helmet performance with respect to peak acceleration. While generally, all helmets with the facemasks gave greater HIC, SI, and acceleration values than helmets without the facemasks, significant helmet dependent variations were observed across impact locations and impact velocities. The variations between helmet responses could be attributed to the unique design features of each helmet tested, which include different liners, chin strap attachments, and faceguard attachment systems. In summary, these comparative drop test results revealed that the current NOCSAE standard test methods need improvement by attaching the facemasks to helmets during testing. The modified NOCSAE football helmet standard test gives a more accurate representation of a helmet’s performance and its ability to mitigate the on-field impact.

Keywords: football helmet testing, gadd severity index, head injury criterion, mild traumatic brain injury

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Authors: Dimeji Abe, Nonso Okoye, Gideon Ikpimi, Prince Idemudia

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Multi-reservoir optimization operation has been a critical issue for river basin management. Water, as a scarce resource, is in high demand and the problems associated with the reservoir as its storage facility are enormous. The complexity in balancing the supply and demand of this prime resource has created the need to examine the best way to solve the problem using optimization techniques. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the multi-objective meta-heuristic algorithm for the operation of Gariep Dam for satisfying ecological flow requirements. This study uses an evolutionary algorithm called backtrack search algorithm (BSA) to determine the best way to optimise the dam operations of hydropower production, flood control, and water supply without affecting the environmental flow requirement for the survival of aquatic bodies and sustain life downstream of the dam. To achieve this objective, the operations of the dam that corresponds to different tradeoffs between the objectives are optimized. The results indicate the best model from the algorithm that satisfies all the objectives without any constraint violation. It is expected that hydropower generation will be improved and more water will be available for ecological flow requirements with the use of the algorithm. This algorithm also provides farmers with more irrigation water as well to improve their business.

Keywords: BSA evolutionary algorithm, metaheuristics, optimization, river basin management

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Authors: Tippawan Nasawan

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The objective of this study is to find the replenishment policy in Assembly-to-Order manufacturing (ATO) which some of the major components have lead-time longer than customer lead-time. The variety of products, independent component demand, and long component lead-time are the difficulty that has resulted in the overstock problem. In addition, the ordering cost is trivial when compared to the cost of material of the major component. A conceptual design of the Decision Supporting System (DSS) has introduced to assist the replenishment policy. Component replenishment by using the variable which calls Available to Promise (ATP) for making the decision is one of the keys. The Poisson distribution is adopted to realize demand patterns in order to calculate Safety Stock (SS) at the specified Customer Service Level (CSL). When distribution cannot identify, nonparametric will be applied instead. The test result after comparing the ending inventory between the new policy and the old policy, the overstock has significantly reduced by 46.9 percent or about 469,891.51 US-Dollars for the cost of the major component (material cost only). Besides, the number of the major component inventory is also reduced by about 41 percent which helps to mitigate the chance of damage and keeping stock.

Keywords: Assembly-to-Order, Decision Supporting System, Component replenishment , Poisson distribution

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Authors: Raweyah Al-Sedairawi

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While high-rise housing detained massive negative connotations on several societies and well-being, this typology did deliver housing demand efficiently. Despite its adverse reference due to declining precedents, high-rise housing is still in global demand. Yet the suitability of this typology is still questioned. In this research, the suitability of high-rise housing as a socio-culturally sustainable solution to meet housing demands will be examined. By questioning what is the potential of high-rise housing as a socio-culturally sustainable solution for housing demands, the research will examine some high-rise housing practices. Through reviewing the literature on the origins of high-rise housing, how and why they were developed, some unsuccessful cases, and some successful cases, with the identification of factors for successful high-rise living. Thus, the research groundings will materialize from existing patterns of housing demands. Whilst most of the literature covers the housing market from an economic, real estate, and political perspective, there is less amount that discloses occupants’ reactions towards this typology and its appropriateness for the reason that income controls individuals’ choices. To bridge the gap, the prospect of implementing the study would be effective. This will be applied through a mixture of a qualitative and a quantitative methodology by conducting questionnaires and focus groups on existing cases of high-net-worth residential towers.

Keywords: architecture, behaviors, high-rise, socio-cultural, sustainability

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Authors: James Patrick A. Diaz, Raul E. Ramboyong

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Background: Hypertensive response during maximal exercise test provides important information on the level of blood pressure control and evaluation of treatment. Method: A single center retrospective descriptive study was conducted among 117 young (aged 20 to 40) and middle age (aged 40 to 65) hypertensive patients, who underwent treadmill stress test. Currently on maintenance frontline medication either monotherapy (Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/Angiotensin receptor blocker [ACEi/ARB], Calcium channel blocker [CCB], Diuretic - Hydrochlorthiazide [HCTZ]) or combination therapy (ARB+CCB, ARB+HCTZ), who attained a maximal exercise on treadmill stress test (TMST) with hypertensive response (systolic blood pressure: male >210 mm Hg, female >190 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure >100 mmHg, or increase of >10 mm Hg at any time during the test), on Bruce and Modified Bruce protocol. Exaggerated blood pressure response during exercise (systolic [SBP] and diastolic [DBP]), peak exercise blood pressure (SBP and DBP), recovery period (SBP and DBP) and test for ischemia and their antihypertensive medication/s were investigated. Analysis of variance and chi-square test were used for statistical analysis. Results: Hypertensive responses on maximal exercise test were seen mostly among female population (P < 0.000) and middle age (P < 0.000) patients. Exaggerated diastolic blood pressure responses were significantly lower in patients who were taking CCB (P < 0.004). A longer recovery period that showed a delayed decline in SBP was observed in patients taking ARB+HCTZ (P < 0.036). There were no significant differences in the level of exaggerated systolic blood pressure response and during peak exercise (both systolic and diastolic) in patients using either monotherapy or combination antihypertensives. Conclusion: Calcium channel blockers provided lower exaggerated diastolic BP response during maximal exercise test in hypertensive middle age patients. Patients on combination therapy using ARB+HCTZ exhibited a longer recovery period of systolic blood pressure.

Keywords: antihypertensive, exercise test, hypertension, hyperytensive response

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Authors: May Khei Hu, Kevin Leong, Fu Siong Ng, Nicholas Peter

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Introduction: Sympathetic stimulation has been recognised as a potent stimulus of arrhythmogenesis in various cardiac pathologies, possibly by augmenting dispersion of repolarisation. The effects of sympathetic stimulation in healthy subjects however remain unclear. It is, therefore, crucial to first establish the effects of physiological stress on dispersion of repolarisation in healthy subjects before understanding these effects in pathological cardiac conditions. We hypothesised that activation-recovery interval (ARI; which is a surrogate of action potential duration) and dispersion of repolarisation decrease on sympathetic stimulation. Methods: Eight patients aged 18-55 years with structurally normal hearts underwent head-up tilt test (HUTT) and exercise tolerance test (ETT) while wearing the electrocardiographic imaging (ECGi) vest. Patients later underwent CT scan and the epicardial potentials are reconstructed using the ECGi software. Activation and recovery times were determined from the acquired electrograms. ARI was calculated and later corrected using Bazett’s formula. Global and regional dispersion of repolarisation were determined from standard deviation of the corrected ARI (ARIc). One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Wilcoxon test were used to evaluate statistical significance. Results: Global ARIc increased significantly [p<0.01] when patients were tilted upwards but decreased significantly after five minutes [p<0.01]. A subsequent post- hoc analysis revealed that the decrease in R-R was more substantial compared to the change in ARI, resulting in the observed increase in ARIc. Global ARIc decreased on peak exercise [p<0.01] but increased on recovery [p<0.01]. Global dispersion increased significantly on peak exercise [p<0.05] although there were no significant changes in regional dispersion. There were no significant changes in both global and regional dispersion during tilt. Conclusion: ARIc decreases upon sympathetic stimulation in healthy subjects. Global dispersion of repolarisation increases upon exercise although there were no changes in global or regional dispersion during orthostatic stress.

Keywords: dispersion of repolarisation, sympathetic stimulation, Head-up tilt test (HUTT), Exercise tolerance test (ETT), Electrocardiographic imaging (ECGi)

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Authors: L. Guevara, Glória L. S., Corea E. E, A. Ramírez-Zamora M., Salinas-Martinez J. A., Angeles-Hernandez J. C.

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Mathematical models are useful for identifying the characteristics of sheep lactation curves to develop and implement improved strategies. However, the accuracy of these models is influenced by factors such as the recording regime, mainly the intervals between test day records (TDR). The current study aimed to evaluate the effect of different TDR intervals on the goodness of fit of the Wood model (WM) applied to dairy sheep lactations. A total of 4,494 weekly TDRs from 156 lactations of dairy crossbred sheep were analyzed. Three new databases were generated from the original weekly TDR data (7D), comprising intervals of 14(14D), 21(21D), and 28(28D) days. The parameters of WM were estimated using the “minpack.lm” package in the R software. The shape of the lactation curve (typical and atypical) was defined based on the WM parameters. The goodness of fit was evaluated using the mean square of prediction error (MSPE), Root of MSPE (RMSPE), Akaike´s Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian´s Information Criterion (BIC), and the coefficient of correlation (r) between the actual and estimated total milk yield (TMY). WM showed an adequate estimate of TMY regardless of the TDR interval (P=0.21) and shape of the lactation curve (P=0.42). However, we found higher values of r for typical curves compared to atypical curves (0.9vs.0.74), with the highest values for the 28D interval (r=0.95). In the same way, we observed an overestimated peak yield (0.92vs.6.6 l) and underestimated time of peak yield (21.5vs.1.46) in atypical curves. The best values of RMSPE were observed for the 28D interval in both lactation curve shapes. The significant lowest values of AIC (P=0.001) and BIC (P=0.001) were shown by the 7D interval for typical and atypical curves. These results represent the first approach to define the adequate interval to record the regime of dairy sheep in Latin America and showed a better fitting for the Wood model using a 7D interval. However, it is possible to obtain good estimates of TMY using a 28D interval, which reduces the sampling frequency and would save additional costs to dairy sheep producers.

Keywords: gamma incomplete, ewes, shape curves, modeling

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Authors: Saba Arif, Anam Nadeem, Roman Kalvin, Muzaffar Ali, Burhan Ali, Juntakan Taweekun

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Globally transportation sector accounts for around 25% of energy demand and nearly 62% of oil consumed. Therefore, new energy sources are required to introduce for this huge demand replenishment of depleting conventional energy sources. Currently, biofuels such as Jatropha trees as an energy carrier for transportation sector are being utilized effectively round the globe. However, climate conditions at low altitudes with an average annual temperature above 20 degrees Celsius and rainfall of 300-1000mm are considered the most suitable environment for the efficient growth of Jatropha trees. The current study is providing a theoretical survey-based analysis to investigate the effect of rate of cultivation of jatropha trees on the reduction of fuel prices and its environmental benefits. The resulted study shows that jatropha tree’s 100 kg seeds give 80kg oil and the conversion process cost is very small as 890 PKR. Moreover, the extraction of oil from Jatropha tree is tax-free compared to other fuels. The analysis proved very essential for potential assessment of Jatropha regarding future energy fuel for transportation sector at global level. Additionally, it can be very beneficial for increment in the total amount of transportation fuel in Pakistan.

Keywords: jatropha tree, environmental impact, energy contents, theoretical survey

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Authors: Jefferson Hernandez, Juan Padilla

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Estimation of price elasticity of demand is a valuable tool for the task of price settling. Given its relevance, it is an active field for microeconomic and statistical research. Price elasticity in the industry of oil and gas, in particular for fuels sold in gas stations, has shown to be a challenging topic given the market and state restrictions, and underlying correlations structures between the types of fuels sold by the same gas station. This paper explores the Lotka-Volterra model for the problem for price elasticity estimation in the context of fuels; in addition, it is introduced multivariate random effects with the purpose of dealing with errors, e.g., measurement or missing data errors. In order to model the underlying correlation structures, the Inverse-Wishart, Hierarchical Half-t and LKJ distributions are studied. Here, the Bayesian paradigm through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for model estimation is considered. Simulation studies covering a wide range of situations were performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed models and algorithms. Results revealed that the proposed algorithms recovered quite well all model parameters. Also, a real data set analysis was performed in order to illustrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: price elasticity, volume, correlation structures, Bayesian models

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Authors: José M Martín-Moreno, Rafaela Pérez, Jesús Ruiz

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In this paper we use a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) for the Spanish economy to search for a deeper characterization of the determinants of Spain’s macroeconomic fluctuations throughout the period 1970-2008. In order to do this, we distinguish between tradable and non-tradable goods to take into account the fact that the presence of non-tradable goods in this economy is one of the largest in the world. We estimate a DSGE model with supply and demand shocks (sectorial productivity, public spending, international real interest rate and preferences) using Kalman Filter techniques. We find the following results. First of all, our variance decomposition analysis suggests that 1) the preference shock basically accounts for private consumption volatility, 2) the idiosyncratic productivity shock accounts for non-tradable output volatility, and 3) the sectorial productivity shock along with the international interest rate both greatly account for tradable output. Secondly, the model closely replicates the time path observed in the data for the Spanish economy and finally, the model captures the main cyclical qualitative features of this economy reasonably well.

Keywords: business cycle, DSGE models, Kalman filter estimation, small open economy

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Authors: Héctor Rivera-Gómez, Eva Selene Hernández-Gress, Oscar Montaño-Arango, Jose Ramon Corona-Armenta

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This research studies the joint production, maintenance and subcontracting control policy for an unreliable deteriorating manufacturing system. Production activities are controlled by a derivation of the Hedging Point Policy, and given that the system is subject to deterioration, it reduces progressively its capacity to satisfy product demand. Multiple deterioration effects are considered, reflected mainly in the quality of the parts produced and the reliability of the machine. Subcontracting is available as support to satisfy product demand; also overhaul maintenance can be conducted to reduce the effects of deterioration. The main objective of the research is to determine simultaneously the production, maintenance and subcontracting rate which minimize the total incurred cost. A stochastic dynamic programming model is developed and solved through a simulation-based approach composed of statistical analysis and optimization with the response surface methodology. The obtained results highlight the strong interactions between production, deterioration and quality which justify the development of an integrated model. A numerical example and a sensitivity analysis are presented to validate our results.

Keywords: subcontracting, optimal control, deterioration, simulation, production planning

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Authors: Armando Cartenì, Ilaria Henke

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Recently, the Italian government has approved a new law for public contracts and has been laying the groundwork for restarting a planning phase. The government has adopted the indications given by the European Commission regarding the estimation of the external costs within the Cost-Benefit Analysis, and has been approved the ‘Guidelines for assessment of Investment Projects’. In compliance with the new Italian law, the aim of this research was to perform a feasibility study applying quantitative methods regarding the revamping of an Italian tourist railway line. A Cost-Benefit Analysis was performed starting from the quantification of the passengers’ demand potentially interested in using the revamped rail services. The benefits due to the external costs reduction were also estimated (quantified) in terms of variations (with respect to the not project scenario): climate change, air pollution, noises, congestion, and accidents. Estimations results have been proposed in terms of the Measure of Effectiveness underlying a positive Net Present Value equal to about 27 million of Euros, an Internal Rate of Return much greater the discount rate, a benefit/cost ratio equal to 2 and a PayBack Period of 15 years.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, evaluation analysis, demand management, external cost, transport planning, quality

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Authors: Margarita Gáfaro, Karelys Guzmán, Paola Poveda

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This paper establishes the theoretical aspects that explain the barriers to accessing credit for small agricultural producers in developing countries and identifies successful policy experiences to mitigate them. We will test two hypotheses. The first one is that information asymmetries, high transaction costs and high-risk exposure limit the supply of credit to small agricultural producers in developing countries. The second hypothesis is that low levels of financial education and productivity and high uncertainty about the returns of agricultural activity limit the demand for credit. To test these hypotheses, a review of the theoretical and empirical literature on access to rural credit in developing countries will be carried out. The first part of this review focuses on theoretical models that incorporate information asymmetries in the credit market and analyzes the interaction between these asymmetries and the characteristics of the agricultural sector in developing countries. Some of the characteristics we will focus on are the absence of collateral, the underdevelopment of the judicial systems and insurance markets, and the high dependence on climatic factors of production technologies. The second part of this review focuses on the determinants of credit demand by small agricultural producers, including the profitability of productive projects, security conditions, risk aversion or loss, financial education, and cognitive biases, among others. There are policies that focus on resolving these supply and demand constraints and managing to improve credit access. Therefore, another objective of this paper is to present a review of effective policies that have promoted access to credit for smallholders in the world. For this, information available in policy documents will be collected. This information will be complemented by interviews with officials in charge of the design and execution of these policies in a subset of selected countries. The information collected will be analyzed in light of the conceptual framework proposed in the first two parts of this section. The barriers to access to credit that each policy attempts to resolve and the factors that could explain its effectiveness will be identified.

Keywords: agricultural economics, credit access, smallholder, developing countries

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Authors: J. Das, T. S. Mahule, V. V. Srinivasu

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Electron spin resonance (ESR) study at 9.45 GHz and a field modulation frequency of 100Hz was performed on bulk polycrystalline samples of Mn:TM (Fe/Ni) and Mn:RE (Gd/Sm) co doped ZnO samples with composition Zn1-xMn:TM/RE)xO synthesised by solid state reaction route and sintered at 500 0C temperature. The room temperature microwave absorption data collected by sweeping the DC magnetic field from -500 to 9500 G for the Mn:Fe and Mn:Ni co doped ZnO samples exhibit a rarely reported non resonant low field absorption (NRLFA) in addition to a strong absorption at around 3350G, usually associated with ferromagnetic resonance (FMR) satisfying Larmor’s relation due to absorption in the full saturation state. Observed low field absorption is distinct to ferromagnetic resonance even at low temperature and shows hysteresis. Interestingly, it shows a phase opposite with respect to the main ESR signal of the samples, which indicates that the low field absorption has a minimum value at zero magnetic field whereas the ESR signal has a maximum value. The major resonance peak as well as the peak corresponding to low field absorption exhibit asymmetric nature indicating magnetic anisotropy in the sample normally associated with intrinsic ferromagnetism. Anisotropy parameter for Mn:Ni codoped ZnO sample is noticed to be quite higher. The g values also support the presence of oxygen vacancies and clusters in the samples. These samples have shown room temperature ferromagnetism in the SQUID measurement. However, in rare earth (RE) co doped samples (Zn1-x (Mn: Gd/Sm)xO), which show paramagnetic behavior at room temperature, the low field microwave signals are not observed. As microwave currents due to itinerary electrons can lead to ohmic losses inside the sample, we speculate that more delocalized 3d electrons contributed from the TM dopants facilitate such microwave currents leading to the loss and hence absorption at the low field which is also supported by the increase in current with increased micro wave power. Besides, since Fe and Ni has intrinsic spin polarization with polarisability of around 45%, doping of Fe and Ni is expected to enhance the spin polarization related effect in ZnO. We emphasize that in this case Fe and Ni doping contribute to polarized current which interacts with the magnetization (spin) vector and get scattered giving rise to the absorption loss.

Keywords: co-doping, electron spin resonance, hysteresis, non-resonant microwave absorption

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Authors: Mohammed Elsayed Lotfy Elsayed Abouzeid, Tomonobu Senjyu

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A novel multi-objective park and ride control approach is presented in this research. Park and ride will encourage the owners of the vehicles to leave their cars in the nearest points (on the edges of the crowded cities) and use public transportation facilities (train, bus, metro, or mon-rail) to reach their work inside the crowded city. The proposed control scheme is used to design electric vehicle charging stations (EVCS) to charge 1000 electric vehicles (EV) during their owners' work time. Cairo, Egypt is used as a case study. Photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (BESS) are used to meet the EVCS demand. Two multi-objective optimization techniques (MOGA and epsilon-MOGA) are utilized to get the optimal sizes of PV and BESS so as to meet the load demand and minimize the total life cycle cost. Detailed analysis and comparison are held to investigate the performance of the proposed control scheme using MATLAB.

Keywords: Battery Energy Storage System, Electric Vehicle, Park and Ride, Photovoltaic, Multi-objective

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Authors: Marvin Ricardo Awarab

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There has never been a greater need for telecom services. The Internet of Things (IoT), 5G networking, and edge computing are the driving forces behind this increased demand. The fierce demand offers communications service providers significant income opportunities. The telecom sector is centered on automation, and realizing a digital operation that functions as a real-time business will be crucial for the industry as a whole. Automation in telecom refers to the application of technology to create a more effective, quick, and scalable alternative to the conventional method of operating the telecom industry. With the promotion of 5G and the Internet of Things (IoT), telecom companies will continue to invest extensively in telecom automation technology. Automation offers benefits in the telecom industry; developing countries such as Namibia may not fully tap into such benefits because of the lack of funds and infrastructural resources to invest in automation. This paper fully investigates the benefits of automation in the telecom industry. Furthermore, the paper identifies hiccups that developing countries such as Namibia face in their quest to fully introduce automation in the telecom industry. Additionally, the paper proposes possible avenues that Namibia, as a developing country, adopt investing in automation infrastructural resources with the aim of reaping the full benefits of automation in the telecom industry.

Keywords: automation, development, internet, internet of things, network, telecom, telecommunications policy, 5G

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Authors: Pello Alfonso-Muniozguren, Madeleine Bussemaker, Devendra Saroj, Judy Lee

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Wastewater treatment is becoming a worldwide concern due to new and tighter environmental regulations, and the increasing need for fresh water for the exponentially growing population. The meat industry has one of the highest consumption of water producing up to 10 times more polluted (BOD) wastewaters in comparison to domestic sewage. Therefore, suitable wastewater treatment methods are required to ensure the wastewater quality meet regulations before discharge. In the present study, a combined lab scale activated sludge-sonication system was used to treat pre-treated abattoir wastewater. A hydraulic retention time of 24 hours and a solid retention time of 13 days were used for the activated sludge process and using ultrasound as tertiary treatment. Different ultrasonic frequencies, powers and sonication times were applied to the samples and results were analysed for chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand (BOD), total suspended solids, pH, total coliforms and total viable counts. Additionally, both mechanical and chemical effects of ultrasound were quantified for organic matter removal (COD and BOD) and disinfection (microorganism inactivation) using different techniques such as aluminum foil pitting, flow cytometry, and KI dosimetry.

Keywords: abattoir wastewater, ultrasound, wastewater treatment, water disinfection

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Authors: Taufik Rizkiandi, Teuku Yuri M. Zagloel, Andri Dwi Setiawan

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Distribution and growth in the transportation and warehousing business sector decreased by 15,04%. There was a decrease in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution level from rank 7 of 4,41% in 2019 to 3,81% in rank 8 in 2020. A decline in the transportation and warehousing business sector contributes to GDP, resulting in oil and gas companies implementing an efficient supply chain strategy to ensure the availability of goods, especially lubricants. Fluctuating demand for lubricants and warehouse service time limits are essential things that are taken into account in determining an efficient route. Add depots points as a solution so that demand for lubricants is fulfilled (not stock out). However, adding a depot will increase operating costs and storage costs. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the addition of depots using the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (CVRPTW). This research case study was conducted at an oil and gas company that produces lubricants from 2019 to 2021. The study results obtained the optimal route and the addition of a depot with a minimum additional cost. The total cost remains efficient with the addition of a depot when compared to one depot from Jakarta.

Keywords: CVRPTW, optimal route, depot, tabu search algorithm

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Authors: Reina Kawase

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Japan set the goal of 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. To consider countermeasures for reducing GHG emission, the production estimation of energy intensive materials, such as steel, is essential. About 50% of steel production is exported in Japan, so it is necessary to consider steel production including export. Steel productions from 2005-2050 in Japan were estimated under various global assumptions based on combination of scenarios such as goods trade scenarios and steel making process selection scenarios. Process selection scenarios decide volume of steel production by process (basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnace) with considering steel consumption projection, supply-demand balance of steel, and scrap surplus. The range of steel production by process was analyzed. Maximum steel production was estimated under the scenario which consumes scrap in domestic steel production at maximum level. In 2035, steel production reaches 149 million ton because of increase in electric arc furnace steel. However, it decreases towards 2050 and amounts to 120 million ton, which is almost same as a current level. Minimum steel production is under the scenario which assumes technology progress in steel making and supply-demand balance consideration in each region. Steel production decreases from base year and is 44 million ton in 2050.

Keywords: goods trade scenario, steel making process selection scenario, steel production, global warming

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Authors: Jesika A. Walker, Mohammed Aswad, Guy Lacroix, Denis Cousineau

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There is a fundamental disconnect between the experience of time passing and the chronometric units by which time is quantified. Specifically, there appears to be no relationship between the passage of time judgments (PoTJs) and verbal duration estimates at short durations (e.g., < 2000 milliseconds). When a duration is longer than several minutes, however, evidence suggests that a slower feeling of time passing is predictive of overestimation. Might the length of a task moderate the relation between PoTJs and duration estimates? Similarly, the estimation paradigm (prospective vs. retrospective) and the mental effort demanded of a task (task demand) have both been found to influence duration estimates. However, only a handful of experiments have investigated these effects for tasks of long durations, and the results have been mixed. Thus, might the length of a task also moderate the effects of the estimation paradigm and task demand on duration estimates? To investigate these questions, 273 participants performed either an easy or difficult visual and memory search task for either eight or 58 minutes, under prospective or retrospective instructions. Afterward, participants provided a duration estimate in minutes, followed by a PoTJ on a Likert scale (1 = very slow, 7 = very fast). A 2 (prospective vs. retrospective) × 2 (eight minutes vs. 58 minutes) × 2 (high vs. low difficulty) between-subjects ANOVA revealed a two-way interaction between task demand and task duration on PoTJs, p = .02. Specifically, time felt faster in the more challenging task, but only in the eight-minute condition, p < .01. Duration estimates were transformed into RATIOs (estimate/actual duration) to standardize estimates across durations. An ANOVA revealed a two-way interaction between estimation paradigm and task duration, p = .03. Specifically, participants overestimated the task more if they were given prospective instructions, but only in the eight-minute task. Surprisingly, there was no effect of task difficulty on duration estimates. Thus, the demands of a task may influence ‘feeling of time’ and ‘estimation time’ differently, contributing to the existing theory that these two forms of time judgement rely on separate underlying cognitive mechanisms. Finally, a significant main effect of task duration was found for both PoTJs and duration estimates (ps < .001). Participants underestimated the 58-minute task (m = 42.5 minutes) and overestimated the eight-minute task (m = 10.7 minutes). Yet, they reported the 58-minute task as passing significantly slower on a Likert scale (m = 2.5) compared to the eight-minute task (m = 4.1). In fact, a significant correlation was found between PoTJ and duration estimation (r = .27, p <.001). This experiment thus provides evidence for a compensatory effect at longer durations, in which people underestimate a ‘slow feeling condition and overestimate a ‘fast feeling condition. The results are discussed in relation to heuristics that might alter the relationship between these two variables when conditions range from several minutes up to almost an hour.

Keywords: duration estimates, long durations, passage of time judgements, task demands

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Authors: Palash Bandyopadhyay

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Background and significance of the study: Crude oil and natural gas is of crucial importance due to its increasing demand in India. The demand has been increased because of change of lifestyle overtime. Since India has poor utilization of oil production capacity, constantly the import of it has been increased progressively day by day. This ultimately hit the foreign exchange reserves of India, however it negatively affect the Indian economy as well. The financial performance of crude oil and natural gas companies in India has been trimmed down year after year because of underutilization of production capacity, enhancement of demand, change in life style, and change in import bill and outflows of foreign currencies. In this background, the current study seeks to measure the financial performance of crude oil and natural gas companies of India in the post liberalization period. Keeping in view of this, this study assesses the financial performance in terms of liquidity management, solvency, efficiency, financial stability, and profitability of the companies under study. Methodology: This research work is encircled on yearly ratio data collected from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Prowess database for the periods between 1993-94 and 2012-13 with 20 observations using liquidity, solvency and efficiency indicators, profitability indicators and financial stability indicators of all the major crude oil and natural gas companies in India. In the course of analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation statistics, and linear regression test have been utilized. Major findings: Descriptive statistics indicate that liquidity position is satisfactory in case of three crude oil and natural gas companies (Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited, Oil India Limited and Selan exploration and transportation Limited) out of selected companies under study but solvency position is satisfactory only for one company (Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited). However, efficiency analysis points out that Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited performs effectively the management of inventory, receivables, and payables, but the overall liquidity management is not well. Profitability position is very much satisfactory in case of all the companies except Tata Petrodyne Limited, but profitability management is not satisfactory for all the companies under study. Financial stability analysis shows that all the companies are more dependent on debt capital, which bears a financial risk. Correlation and regression test results illustrates that profitability is positively and negatively associated with liquidity, solvency, efficiency, and financial stability indicators. Concluding statement: Management of liquidity and profitability of crude oil and natural gas companies in India should have been improved through controlling unnecessary imports in spite of the heavy demand of crude oil and natural gas in India and proper utilization of domestic oil reserves. At the same time, Indian government has to concern about rupee depreciation and interest rates.

Keywords: financial performance, crude oil and natural gas companies, India, linear regression

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Authors: Vladimir Korovkin, Albert Park, Evgeny Kaganer

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The paper studies the second-level digital divide (the one defined by the way how digital technology is used in everyday life) between regions of the Russian Federation. The paper offers a systemic review of literature on the measurement of the digital divide; based upon this it suggests a composite Digital Life Index, that captures the complex multi-dimensional character of the phenomenon. The model of the index studies separately the digital supply and demand across seven independent dimensions providing for 14 subindices. The Index is based on Internet-borne data, a distinction from traditional research approaches that rely on official statistics or surveys. Regression analysis is used to determine the relative importance of factors like income, human capital, and policy in determining the digital divide. The result of the analysis suggests that the digital divide is driven more by the differences in demand (defined by consumer competencies) than in supply; the role of income is insignificant, and the quality of human capital is the key determinant of the divide. The paper advances the existing methodological literature on the issue and can also inform practical decision-making regarding the strategies of national and regional digital development.

Keywords: digital transformation, second-level digital divide, composite index, digital policy, regional development, Russia

Procedia PDF Downloads 183