Search results for: index structural equation model

Authors: Nurudeen Oluwasola Lasisi

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Newcastle disease is a highly contagious disease of birds caused by a para-myxo virus. In this paper, we presented Novel quarantine-adjusted incident and linear incident of Newcastle disease model equations. We considered the dynamics of transmission and control of Newcastle disease. The existence and uniqueness of the solutions were obtained. The existence of disease-free points was shown, and the model threshold parameter was examined using the next-generation operator method. The sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to identify the most sensitive parameters of the disease transmission. This revealed that as parameters β,ω, and ᴧ increase while keeping other parameters constant, the effective reproduction number R_ev increases. This implies that the parameters increase the endemicity of the infection of individuals. More so, when the parameters μ,ε,γ,δ_1, and α increase, while keeping other parameters constant, the effective reproduction number R_ev decreases. This implies the parameters decrease the endemicity of the infection as they have negative indices. Analytical results were numerically verified by the Differential Transformation Method (DTM) and quantitative views of the model equations were showcased. We established that as contact rate (β) increases, the effective reproduction number R_ev increases, as the effectiveness of drug usage increases, the R_ev decreases and as the quarantined individual decreases, the R_ev decreases. The results of the simulations showed that the infected individual increases when the susceptible person approaches zero, also the vaccination individual increases when the infected individual decreases and simultaneously increases the recovery individual.

Keywords: disease-free equilibrium, effective reproduction number, endemicity, Newcastle disease model, numerical, Sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Mohamed Abdelmounim Bakkali, Mustapha El Mataouy, Abellatif Aaliti, Mouhamed Khaddor

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In the paper, we study the effects of introducing hafnium oxide on Raman spectra of silica glass planar waveguide activated by 0.3 mol% Er3+ ions. This work compares Raman spectra measured for three thin films deposited on silicon substrate. The films were prepared with different molar ratio of Si/Hf using sol-gel method and deposited by dip coating technique. The effect of hafnium oxide incorporation on the waveguides shows the evolution of the structure of this material. This structural information is useful to understand the luminescence intensity by means of ion–ion interaction mechanisms.

Keywords: optical amplifiers, non-bridging oxygen, erbium, sol-gel, waveguide, silica-hafnia

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Authors: Carine Muster, Prina Howald Erika

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Today's ice rinks are important energy consumers for the production and maintenance of ice. At the same time, users demand that the other rooms should be tempered or heated. The building complex must equally provide cooled and heated zones, which does not translate as carbon-zero ice rinks. The study provides an analysis of how the civil engineering sector can significantly impact minimizing greenhouse gas emissions and optimizing synergies across an entire ice rink complex. The analysis focused on three distinct aspects: the layout, including the volumetric layout of the premises present in an ice rink; the materials chosen that can potentially use the most ecological structural approach; and the construction methods based on innovative solutions to reduce carbon footprint. The first aspect shows that the organization of the interior volumes and defining the shape of the rink play a significant role. Its layout makes the use and operation of the premises as efficient as possible, thanks to the differentiation between heated and cooled volumes while optimising heat loss between the different rooms. The sprayed concrete method, which is still little known, proves that it is possible to achieve the strength of traditional concrete for the structural aspect of the load-bearing and non-load-bearing walls of the ice rink by using materials excavated from the construction site and providing a more ecological and sustainable solution. The installation of an empty sanitary space underneath the ice floor, making it independent of the rest of the structure, provides a natural insulating layer, preventing the transfer of cold to the rest of the structure and reducing energy losses. The addition of active pipes as part of the foundation of the ice floor, coupled with a suitable system, gives warmth in the winter and storage in the summer; this is all possible thanks to the natural heat in the ground. In conclusion, this study provides construction recommendations for future ice rinks with a significantly reduced energy demand, using some simple preliminary design concepts. By optimizing the layout, materials, and construction methods of ice rinks, the civil engineering sector can play a key role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainability.

Keywords: climate change, energy optimization, green building, sustainability

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Authors: Hateem Zafar Kayani, Nageen Hussain

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The main aim is to analyze the mutations of DNASE I gene in diabetic patients. A total of 120 diabetes patients and 120 controls were sampled. The total number of male diabetic patients included in the study was 79 (66%) while female patients were 41 (34%) in number. Exon 8 of the DNASE I gene was amplified by using thermo cycler. The possible band of interest was located at 165 base pairs. Two samples showed similar missense mutations at 127th position of exon 8 which replaced amino acid Arginine (Arg) to Glutamine (Gln). All controls showed no mutations. The association of diabetes with different levels of blood pressure and body mass index (BMI) were found to be significant.

Keywords: deoxyribonuclease I, polymerase chain reaction, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Najla Kamergi

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In a world context of increasing interest in environmental issues, this paper investigates the effect of agri-environmental regulations heterogeneity on the volume of crop commodities’ exports using a theoretically justified gravity model of Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) for the 2003–2013 period. Our findings show that the difference in exporter and importer environmental regulations is more relevant to agricultural trade than trade agreements. In fact, the environmental gap between the two partners is decreasing slightly but significantly crop commodities’ exports according to our results. We also note that the sector of fruit and vegetables is more sensitive to this determinant, unlike cereals that remain relatively less affected. Furthermore, high-income countries have more tendency to trade with countries characterized by similar environmental stringency. Further results show that the BRICS are clearly importing from developed countries where the environmental difference is relatively important. It is likely that emerging countries are witnessing a growing demand for high-quality and “green” crop commodities captured by high-income exporters. Surprisingly, our results suggest that low and middle-income countries with the same level of environmental stringency are more likely to trade crop commodities.

Keywords: agricultural trade, environment, gravity model, food crops, agri-environmental efficiency, DEA

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Authors: Vilma Deltuvaitė

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Comparisons of financial development across countries are central to answering many of the questions on factors leading to economic development. For this reason this study analyzes the implications of financial system’s development on country’s economic development. The aim of the article: to analyze the impact of financial system’s development on economic development. The following research methods were used: systemic, logical and comparative analysis of scientific literature, analysis of statistical data, time series model (Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model). The empirical results suggest about positive short and long term effect of stock market development on GDP per capita.

Keywords: banking sector, economic development, financial system’s development, stock market, private bond market

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Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak, Eric P. Salathé Jr, Jiemjai Kreasuwan

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Dynamical downscaling of the ECHAM5 global climate model is applied at 20-km horizontal resolution using the WRF regional climate model (WRF-ECHAM5), to project changes from 1990–2009 to 2045–2064 of temperature and precipitation over the Upper Ping River Basin. The analysis found that monthly changes in daily temperature and precipitation over the basin for the 2045-2064 compared to the 1990-2009 are revealed over the basin all months, with the largest warmer in December and the smallest warmer in February. The future simulated precipitation is smaller than that of the baseline value in May, July and August, while increasing of precipitation is revealed during pre-monsoon (April) and late monsoon (September and October). This means that the rainy season likely becomes longer and less intensified during the rainy season. During the cool-dry season and hot-dry season, precipitation is substantial increasing over the basin. For the annual cycle of changes in daily temperature and precipitation over the upper Ping River basin, the largest warmer in the mean temperature over the basin is 1.93 °C in December and the smallest is 0.77 °C in February. Increase in nighttime temperature (minimum temperature) is larger than that of daytime temperature (maximum temperature) during the dry season, especially in wintertime (November to February), resulted in decreasing the diurnal temperature range. The annual and seasonal changes in daily temperature and precipitation averaged over the basin. The annual mean rising are 1.43, 1.54 and 1.30 °C for mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, respectively. The increasing of maximum temperature is larger than that of minimum temperature in all months during the dry season (November to April).

Keywords: climate change, regional climate model, upper Ping River basin, WRF

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Authors: Fatemeh Nemati, Lucinda Leonard, Gwyn Lintern, Richard Thomson

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In this study, we will use modern numerical modeling approaches to estimate tsunami risks to the southern coast of British Columbia from landslides. Wave generation is to be simulated using the NHWAVE model, which solves the Navier-Stokes equations due to the more complex behavior of flow near the landslide source; far-field wave propagation will be simulated using the simpler model FUNWAVE_TVD with high-order Boussinesq-type wave equations, with a focus on the accurate simulation of wave propagation and regional- or coastal-scale inundation predictions.

Keywords: FUNWAVE-TVD, landslide-generated tsunami, NHWAVE, tsunami risk

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Authors: Ramon Santana

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The use of biometric identifiers in the field of information security, access control to resources, authentication in ATMs and banking among others, are of great concern because of the safety of biometric data. In the general architecture of a biometric system have been detected eight vulnerabilities, six of them allow obtaining minutiae template in plain text. The main consequence of obtaining minutia templates is the loss of biometric identifier for life. To mitigate these vulnerabilities several models to protect minutiae templates have been proposed. Several vulnerabilities in the cryptographic security of these models allow to obtain biometric data in plain text. In order to increase the cryptographic security and ease of reversibility, a minutiae templates protection model is proposed. The model aims to make the cryptographic protection and facilitate the reversibility of data using two levels of security. The first level of security is the data transformation level. In this level generates invariant data to rotation and translation, further transformation is irreversible. The second level of security is the evaluation level, where the encryption key is generated and data is evaluated using a defined evaluation function. The model is aimed at mitigating known vulnerabilities of the proposed models, basing its security on the impossibility of the polynomial reconstruction.

Keywords: fingerprint, template protection, bio-cryptography, minutiae protection

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Authors: Latif Adnane, C. E. Ait Zaouiat, M. Eddabbah

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In Wireless Body Area Networks, the issue of systems lifetime is a big challenge to complete. In this paper, we have tackled this subject to suggest some solutions. For this aim, we have studied some batteries characteristics related to human body temperature. Moreover, we have analyzed a mathematical model which defines sensors lifetime (battery lifetime). Based on this model, we note that the random access increases the energy consumption, because nodes are waking up during the whole superframe period. Results show that using scheduled mode access of IEEE 802.15.6 maximizes the lifetime function, by setting nodes in the sleep mode in the inactive period of transmission.

Keywords: battery, energy consumption, IEEE 802.15.6, lifetime, polling

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Authors: Marco Frieslaar, Bing Chu, Eric Rogers

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Stroke is a devastating illness that is the second biggest cause of death in the world (after heart disease). Where it does not kill, it leaves survivors with debilitating sensory and physical impairments that not only seriously harm their quality of life, but also cause a high incidence of severe depression. It is widely accepted that early intervention is essential for recovery, but current rehabilitation techniques largely favor hospital-based therapies which have restricted access, expensive and specialist equipment and tend to side-step the emotional challenges. In addition, there is insufficient funding available to provide the long-term assistance that is required. As a consequence, recovery rates are poor. The relatively unexplored solution is to develop therapies that can be harnessed in the home and are formulated from technologies that already exist in everyday life. This would empower individuals to take control of their own improvement and provide choice in terms of when and where they feel best able to undertake their own healing. This research seeks to identify how effective post-stroke, rehabilitation therapy can be applied to upper limb mobility, within the physical context of a home rather than a hospital. This is being achieved through the design and construction of an automation scheme, based on iterative learning control and the Riener muscle model, that has the ability to adapt to the user and react to their level of fatigue and provide tangible physical recovery. It utilizes a SMART Phone and laptop to construct an iterative learning control (ILC) system, that monitors upper arm movement in three dimensions, as a series of exercises are undertaken. The equipment generates functional electrical stimulation to assist in muscle activation and thus improve directional accuracy. In addition, it monitors speed, accuracy, areas of motion weakness and similar parameters to create a performance index that can be compared over time and extrapolated to establish an independent and objective assessment scheme, plus an approximate estimation of predicted final outcome. To further extend its assessment capabilities, nerve conduction velocity readings are taken by the software, between the shoulder and hand muscles. This is utilized to measure the speed of response of neuron signal transfer along the arm and over time, an online indication of regeneration levels can be obtained. This will prove whether or not sufficient training intensity is being achieved even before perceivable movement dexterity is observed. The device also provides the option to connect to other users, via the internet, so that the patient can avoid feelings of isolation and can undertake movement exercises together with others in a similar position. This should create benefits not only for the encouragement of rehabilitation participation, but also an emotional support network potential. It is intended that this approach will extend the availability of stroke recovery options, enable ease of access at a low cost, reduce susceptibility to depression and through these endeavors, enhance the overall recovery success rate.

Keywords: home-based therapy, iterative learning control, Riener muscle model, SMART phone, stroke rehabilitation

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Authors: Nebojša Janićijević

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At the end of 1970s, Dutch researcher Geert Hofstede, had conducted an enormous empirical research on the differences between national cultures. In his huge research, he had identified four dimensions of national culture according to which national cultures differ and determined the index for every dimension of national culture for each country that took part in his research. The index showed a country’s position on the continuum between the two extreme poles of the cultural dimensions. Since more than 40 years have passed since Hofstede's research, there is a doubt that, due to the changes in national cultures during that period, they are no longer a good basis for research. The aim of this research is to check the validity of Hofstee's indices of national culture The empirical study conducted in the branches of a multinational company in Serbia, France, the Netherlands and Denmark aimed to determine whether Hofstede’s measures of national culture dimensions are still valid. The sample consisted of 155 employees of one multinational company, where 40 employees came from three countries and 35 employees were from Serbia. The questionnaire that analyzed the positions of national cultures according to the Hofstede’s four dimensions was formulated on the basis of the initial Hofstede’s questionnaire, but it was much shorter and significantly simplified comparing to the original questionnaire. Such instrument had already been used in earlier researches. A statistical analysis of the obtained questionnaire results was done by a simple calculation of the frequency of the provided answers. Due to the limitations in methodology, sample size, instrument, and applied statistical methods, the aim of the study was not to explicitly test the accuracy Hofstede’s indexes but to enlighten the general position of the four observed countries in national culture dimensions and their mutual relations. The study results have indicated that the position of the four observed national cultures (Serbia, France, the Netherlands and Denmark) is precisely the same in three out of four dimensions as Hofstede had described in his research. Furthermore, the differences between national cultures and the relative relations between their positions in three dimensions of national culture correspond to Hofstede’s results. The only deviation from Hofstede’s results is concentrated around the masculinity–femininity dimension. In addition, the study revealed that the degree of power distance is a determinant when choosing leadership style. It has been found that national cultures with high power distance, like Serbia and France, favor one of the two authoritative leadership styles. On the other hand, countries with low power distance, such as the Netherlands and Denmark, prefer one of the forms of democratic leadership styles. This confirms Hofstede’s premises about the impact of power distance on leadership style. The key contribution of the study is that Hofstede’s national culture indexes are still a reliable tool for measuring the positions of countries in national culture dimensions, and they can be applied in the cross-cultural research in management. That was at least the case with four observed countries: Serbia, France, the Netherlands, and Denmark.

Keywords: national culture, leadership styles, power distance, collectivism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance

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Authors: Abduladim Maitieg, Kevin Lynch, Mark Johnson

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The goal of the Libyan Environmental General Authority (EGA) and National Oil Corporation (Department of Health, Safety & Environment) during the last 5 years has been to adopt a common approach to coastal and marine spatial planning. Protection and planning of the coastal zone is a significant for Libya, due to the length of coast and, the high rate of oil export, and spills’ potential negative impacts on coastal and marine habitats. Coastal resource scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term and short-term consequences of oil spill impact and available response options that would provide an integrated perspective on mitigation. To investigate that, this paper reviews the Misratah coastal parameters to present the physical and human controls and attributes of coastal habitats as the first step in understanding how they may be damaged by an oil spill. This paper also investigates costal resources, providing a better understanding of the resources and factors that impact the integrity of the ecosystem. Therefore, the study described the potential spatial distribution of oil spill risk and the coastal resources value, and also created spatial maps of coastal resources and their vulnerability to oil spills along the coast. This study proposes an analysis of coastal resources condition at a local level in the Misratah region of the Mediterranean Sea, considering the implementation of coastal and marine spatial planning over time as an indication of the will to manage urban development. Oil spill contamination analysis and their impact on the coastal resources depend on (1) oil spill sequence, (2) oil spill location, (3) oil spill movement near the coastal area. The resulting maps show natural, socio-economic activity, environmental resources along of the coast, and oil spill location. Moreover, the study provides significant geodatabase information which is required for coastal sensitivity index mapping and coastal management studies. The outcome of study provides the information necessary to set an Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the Misratah shoreline, which can be used for management of coastal resources and setting boundaries for each coastal sensitivity sectors, as well as to help planners measure the impact of oil spills on coastal resources. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were used in order to store and illustrate the spatial convergence of existing socio-economic activities such as fishing, tourism, and the salt industry, and ecosystem components such as sea turtle nesting area, Sabkha habitats, and migratory birds feeding sites. These geodatabases help planners investigate the vulnerability of coastal resources to an oil spill.

Keywords: coastal and marine spatial planning advancement training, GIS mapping, human uses, ecosystem components, Misratah coast, Libyan, oil spill

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Authors: Ishmael Obaeko Iwara

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The Point of Sale (POS) cash and cashless semi-formal business has emerged as a significant driver of employment in countries like Nigeria and Kenya, similar to other micro and small-scale enterprises. This business model enables individuals to establish cash in/out outlets, offering entrepreneurs and small business owners a lucrative opportunity to generate additional income. However, the benefits extend beyond employment, as the POS model has become an integral part of the payment system in these countries. It facilitates convenient fund transfers, cash deposits, and withdrawals for individuals residing in both urban and rural areas. Given South Africa's high youth unemployment rate and limited banking services in rural households, coupled with a vibrant informal business economy akin to Nigeria and Kenya, the POS model potentially presents a business opportunity for the unemployed and serves as a banking solution for remote communities. Nonetheless, its implementation within South Africa's entrepreneurial landscape remains a subject of contention. Through qualitative research employing a participatory community-led action research approach, this study analyzes feedback, critiques, and potential interventions from various stakeholders, including business actors, grassroots communities, financial institutions, and policymakers. The findings offer crucial insights into the challenges associated with the adoption of the POS model and suggest mitigating factors to facilitate its successful implementation.

Keywords: grassroots entrepreneurs, rural households, POS banking, youth employment

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Authors: Gizem Kayar, Ramazan Bakir, M. Ilkay Koşar, Ceren U. Gencer, Alperen Ayyildiz

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Anatomy classes are crucial for general education of medical students, whereas learning anatomy is quite challenging and requires memorization of thousands of structures. In traditional teaching methods, learning materials are still based on books, anatomy mannequins, or videos. This results in forgetting many important structures after several years. However, more interactive teaching methods like virtual reality, augmented reality, gamification, and motion sensors are becoming more popular since such methods ease the way we learn and keep the data in mind for longer terms. During our study, we designed a virtual reality based digital head anatomy platform to investigate whether a fully interactive anatomy platform is effective to learn anatomy and to understand the level of teaching and learning optimization. The Head is one of the most complicated human anatomy structures, with thousands of tiny, unique structures. This makes the head anatomy one of the most difficult parts to understand during class sessions. Therefore, we developed a fully interactive digital tool with 3D model marking, quiz structures, 2D/3D puzzle structures, and VR support so as to integrate the power of VR and gamification. The project has been developed in Unity game engine with HTC Vive Cosmos VR headset. The head anatomy 3D model has been selected with full skeletal, muscular, integumentary, head, teeth, lymph, and vein system. The biggest issue during the development was the complexity of our model and the marking of it in the 3D world system. 3D model marking requires to access to each unique structure in the counted subsystems which means hundreds of marking needs to be done. Some parts of our 3D head model were monolithic. This is why we worked on dividing such parts to subparts which is very time-consuming. In order to subdivide monolithic parts, one must use an external modeling tool. However, such tools generally come with high learning curves, and seamless division is not ensured. Second option was to integrate tiny colliders to all unique items for mouse interaction. However, outside colliders which cover inner trigger colliders cause overlapping, and these colliders repel each other. Third option is using raycasting. However, due to its own view-based nature, raycasting has some inherent problems. As the model rotate, view direction changes very frequently, and directional computations become even harder. This is why, finally, we studied on the local coordinate system. By taking the pivot point of the model into consideration (back of the nose), each sub-structure is marked with its own local coordinate with respect to the pivot. After converting the mouse position to the world position and checking its relation with the corresponding structure’s local coordinate, we were able to mark all points correctly. The advantage of this method is its applicability and accuracy for all types of monolithic anatomical structures.

Keywords: anatomy, e-learning, virtual reality, 3D model marking

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Authors: Shahid Nishat, Keith Thomas

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E-government initiatives attract substantial public investments around the world. These investments are based on the premise of digital transformation of the public services, improved efficiency and transparency, and citizen participation in the social democratic processes. However, many e-Government projects, especially in developing countries, fail to achieve their intended outcomes, and a strong disparity exists between the investments made and outcomes achieved, often referred to as e-Government paradox. Further, there is lack of research on evaluating the impacts of e-Government in terms of public value it creates, which ultimately drives usage. This study aims to address these gaps by identifying key enablers of e-Government success and by proposing a public value based framework to examine impact of e-Government services. The study will extend Delone and McLean Information System (IS) Success model by integrating Technology Readiness (TR) characteristics to develop an integrated success model. Level of analysis will be mobile government applications, and the framework will be empirically tested using quantitative methods. The research will add to the literature on e-Government success and will be beneficial for governments, especially in developing countries aspiring to improve public services through the use of Information Communication Technologies (ICT).

Keywords: e-Government, IS success model, public value, technology adoption, technology readiness

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Authors: Qamar J. A. Khan, Fatma Ahmed Al Kharousi

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A prey-predator eco-epidemiological model is studied where transmission of the disease between infected and uninfected prey is nonlinear. The interaction of the predator with infected and uninfected prey species depend on their numerical superiority. Harvesting of both uninfected and infected prey is considered. Stability analysis is carried out for equilibrium values. Using the parameter µ, the death rate of infected prey as a bifurcation parameter it is shown that Hopf bifurcation could occur. The theoretical results are compared with numerical results for different set of parameters.

Keywords: bifurcation, optimal harvesting, predator, prey, stability

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Authors: Bambang Piscesa, Mario M. Attard, Dwi Presetya, Ali K. Samani

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A numerical strategy formulated using a plasticity approach is presented to model spalling of the concrete cover in reinforced concrete columns. The stage at which the concrete cover within reinforced concrete column spalls has a direct bearing on the load capacity. The concrete cover can prematurely spall before the full cross-section can be utilized if the concrete is very brittle under compression such as for very high strength concretes. If the confinement to the core is high enough, the column can achieve a higher peak load by utilizing the core. A numerical strategy is presented to model spalling of the concrete cover. Various numerical strategies are employed to model the behavior of reinforced concrete columns which include: (1) adjusting the material properties to incorporate restrained shrinkage; (2) modifying the plastic dilation rate in the presence of the tensile pressure; (3) adding a tension cut-off failure surface and (4) giving the concrete cover region and the column core different material properties. Numerical comparisons against experimental results are carried out that shown excellent agreement with the experimental results and justify the use of the proposed strategies to predict the axial load capacity of reinforce concrete columns.

Keywords: spalling, concrete, plastic dilation, reinforced concrete columns

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Authors: Xiaowei Zhang, Min Xu, Saeid Habibi, Fengjun Yan, Ryan Ahmed

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Recently, Electric Vehicles (EVs) have received extensive consideration since they offer a more sustainable and greener transportation alternative compared to fossil-fuel propelled vehicles. Lithium-Ion (Li-ion) batteries are increasingly being deployed in EVs because of their high energy density, high cell-level voltage, and low rate of self-discharge. Since Li-ion batteries represent the most expensive component in the EV powertrain, accurate monitoring and control strategies must be executed to ensure their prolonged lifespan. The Battery Management System (BMS) has to accurately estimate parameters such as the battery State-of-Charge (SOC), State-of-Health (SOH), and Remaining Useful Life (RUL). In order for the BMS to estimate these parameters, an accurate and control-oriented battery model has to work collaboratively with a robust state and parameter estimation strategy. Since battery physical parameters, such as the internal resistance and diffusion coefficient change depending on the battery state-of-life (SOL), the BMS has to be adaptive to accommodate for this change. In this paper, an extensive battery aging study has been conducted over 12-months period on 5.4 Ah, 3.7 V Lithium polymer cells. Instead of using fixed charging/discharging aging cycles at fixed C-rate, a set of real-world driving scenarios have been used to age the cells. The test has been interrupted every 5% capacity degradation by a set of reference performance tests to assess the battery degradation and track model parameters. As battery ages, the combined model parameters are optimized and tracked in an offline mode over the entire batteries lifespan. Based on the optimized model, a state and parameter estimation strategy based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the relatively new Smooth Variable Structure Filter (SVSF) have been applied to estimate the SOC at various states of life.

Keywords: lithium-ion batteries, genetic algorithm optimization, battery aging test, parameter identification

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Authors: Yating Yang, Xue Zhang, Chengli Zhao

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Technology capability refers to the comprehensive ability that influences all factors of technological development. Among them, researchers’ resources serve as the foundation and driving force for technology capability, representing a significant manifestation of a country/region's technological capability. Therefore, the cross-border transfer behavior of researchers to some extent reflects changes in technological capability between countries/regions, providing a unique research perspective for technological capability assessment. This paper proposes a technological capability assessment model based on personnel transfer networks, which consists of a researchers' transfer network model and a country/region role evolution model. It evaluates the changes in a country/region's technological capability roles from the perspective of researcher transfers and conducts an analysis using artificial intelligence as a case study based on literature data. The study reveals that the United States, China, and the European Union are core nodes, and identifies the role evolution characteristics of several major countries/regions.

Keywords: transfer network, technological capability assessment, central-peripheral structure, role evolution

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Authors: S. Sushma, S. Balasubramanian, K. C. Latha, R. Sridhar

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Structural texture measures are used to address the aspect of breast cancer risk assessment in screening mammograms. The current study investigates whether texture properties characterized by local Fractal Dimension (FD) and lacunarity contribute to assess breast cancer risk. Fractal Dimension represents the complexity while the lacunarity characterize the gap of a fractal dimension. In this paper, we present our result confirming that the lacunarity value resulted in algorithm using mammogram images states that level of lacunarity will be low when the Fractal Dimension value will be high.

Keywords: breast cancer, fractal dimension, image analysis, lacunarity, mammogram

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Authors: Prashant Verma

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Commercial banks are facing immense pressure, including financial disintermediation, interest rate volatility and digital ways of finance. Retaining an existing customer is 5 to 25 less expensive than acquiring a new one. This paper explores customer churn prediction, based on various statistical & machine learning models and uses under-sampling, to improve the predictive power of these models. The results show that out of the various machine learning models, Random Forest which predicts the churn with 78% accuracy, has been found to be the most powerful model for the scenario. Customer vintage, customer’s age, average balance, occupation code, population code, average withdrawal amount, and an average number of transactions were found to be the variables with high predictive power for the churn prediction model. The model can be deployed by the commercial banks in order to avoid the customer churn so that they may retain the funds, which are kept by savings bank (SB) customers. The article suggests a customized campaign to be initiated by commercial banks to avoid SB customer churn. Hence, by giving better customer satisfaction and experience, the commercial banks can limit the customer churn and maintain their deposits.

Keywords: savings bank, customer churn, customer retention, random forests, machine learning, under-sampling

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Authors: Dinesh Gundavaram

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This paper presents an investigation on bridge damage detection based on the dynamic responses estimated from a passing vehicle. A numerical simulation of steel truss bridge for railway was used in this investigation. The bridge response at different locations is measured using CSI-Bridge software. Several damage scenarios are considered including different locations and severities. The possibilities of dynamic properties of global modes in the identification of structural changes in truss bridges were discussed based on the results of measurement.

Keywords: bridge, damage, dynamic responses, detection

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Authors: Fitim Sadiku, Mjellma Rexhepi, Kreshnik Grezda, Jonijana Sadiku Tigani, Merita Qorolli, Blerta Rexhepi-Kelmendi, Zelie Sadiku, Laura Cakolli

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Background: According to the European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR), biologics should be considered alongside traditional treatments in Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) patients with persistently high disease activity that directly affects functional capacity. Unfortunately, Kosovo’s health system only offers continuous treatment with etanercept (ETN), and most of the patients with AS are referred to be treated with this biological substance. Objectives: This study aims to explore the relationship between comorbidity, disease activity, and functional capacity in AS patients undergoing ETN treatment in Kosovo. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we included patients diagnosed with AS who were being treated with ETN 50mg per week for at least 6 months at the Rheumatology Clinic of the University Clinical Center of Kosovo. Patients under 18, pregnant women, and patients with spinal fractures were excluded. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medicine, University of Prishtina and a consent form was signed by patients for participating in the study. We collected data (September-December 2023) about socio-demographics and disease history. Moreover, the presence of comorbidities was measured by the Comorbidity Charlson Index; the disease activity was measured by the Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS), and the functional capacity was measured by the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI). Results: A total of 31 out of the 39 patients with AS receiving etanercept were included aged 18 to above 65 years (M= 40 years, SD= 14.39), and 87% were male. Diagnose delay was, on average, 7 years from the first symptoms (min-max= 0-24), while the disease duration on average was 7.5 years (min-max= 1- 50). Treatment duration with etanercept was from 0.5 to 6 years. The results indicate a significant positive correlation between comorbidity and BASFI (r= .615, p= .01) and disease activity. Additionally, a significant positive correlation exists between disease activity and BASFI (r= .507, p= .004). Regression analysis highlights the significance of both comorbidity and disease activity as predictors of patients’ functional capacity F (1, 29) = 10.047, p= .05 and F(1, 29) = 17.678, p= .01. No notable gender differences were observed. The study found no significant variations in comorbidity, disease activity, and functional capacity concerning the duration of ETN treatment. Conclusion: We found that in Kosovo, it takes at least 7 years for individuals to be diagnosed with AS from the first-time symptoms are experienced. This study showed that there is a positive correlation between comorbidity and functional capacity, disease activity and functional capacity in patients with AS undergoing etanercept treatment. Furthermore, results showed that comorbidity and disease activity are predictors of the functional status of the patients with AS receiving ETN. Gender and treatment duration with etanercept did not show any significant variations in these patients.

Keywords: ankylosing spondilitis, etanercept, physical wellbeing, comorbidities

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Jephte Sompud, Emily A. Gilbert, Andy Russel Mojiol, Cynthia B. Sompud, Alim Biun

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Naturally regenerated acacia forest and secondary indigenous forest forms some of the urban forests in Sabah. Naturally regenerated acacia trees are usually seen along the road that exists as forest islands. Acacia tree is not an indigenous tree species in Sabah that was introduced in the 1960’s as fire breakers that eventually became one of the preferred trees for forest plantation for paper and pulp production. Due to its adaptability to survive even in impoverished soils and poor-irrigated land, this species has rapidly spread throughout Sabah through natural regeneration. Currently, there is a lack of study to investigate the bird population in the naturally regenerated acacia forest. This study is important because it shed some light on the role of naturally regenerated acacia forest on bird’s population, as bird is known to be a good bioindicator forest health. The aim of this study was to document the bird’s population in naturally regenerated acacia forest with that adjacent secondary indigenous forest. The study site for this study was at Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) Campus. Two forest types in the campus were chosen as a study site, of which were naturally regenerated Acacia Forest and adjacent secondary indigenous forest, located at the UMS Hill. A total of 21 sampling days were conducted in each of the forest types. The method used during this study was solely mist nets with three pockets. Whenever a bird is caught, it is extracted from the net to be identified and measurements were recorded in a standard data sheet. Mist netting was conducted from 6 morning until 5 evening. This study was conducted between February to August 2014. Birds that were caught were ring banded to initiate a long-term study on the understory bird’s population in the Campus The data was analyzed using descriptive analysis, diversity indices, and t-test. The bird population diversity at naturally regenerated Acacia forest with those at the secondary indigenous forest was calculated using two common indices, of which were Shannon-Wiener and Simpson diversity index. There were 18 families with 33 species that were recorded from both sites. The number of species recorded at the naturally regenerated acacia forest was 26 species while at the secondary indigenous forest were 19 species. The Shannon diversity index for Naturally Regenerated Acacia Forest and secondary indigenous forests were 2.87 and 2.46. The results show that there was very significantly higher species diversity at the Naturally Regenerated Acacia Forest as opposed to the secondary indigenous forest (p<0.001). This suggests that Naturally Regenerated Acacia forest plays an important role in urban bird conservation. It is recommended that Naturally Regenerated Acacia Forests should be considered as an established urban forest conservation area as they do play a role in biodiversity conservation. More future studies in Naturally Regenerated Acacia Forest should be encouraged to determine the status and value of biodiversity conservation of this ecosystem.

Keywords: naturally regenerated acacia forest, bird population diversity, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, biodiversity conservation

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Authors: Hakimeh Sharififard, Mansooreh Soleimani

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In this work, the magnetic activated carbon nanocomposite (Fe-CAC) has been synthesized by anchorage iron hydr(oxide) nanoparticles onto commercial activated carbon (CAC) surface and characterized using BET, XRF, SEM techniques. The influence of various removal parameters such as pH, contact time and initial concentration of vanadium on vanadium removal was evaluated using CAC and Fe-CAC in batch method. The sorption isotherms were studied using Langmuir, Freundlich and Dubinin–Radushkevich (D–R) isotherm models. These equilibrium data were well described by the Freundlich model. Results showed that CAC had the vanadium adsorption capacity of 37.87 mg/g, while the Fe-AC was able to adsorb 119.01 mg/g of vanadium. Kinetic data was found to confirm pseudo-second-order kinetic model for both adsorbents.

Keywords: magnetic activated carbon, remove, vanadium, nanocomposite, freundlich

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Authors: Cem Isik Dogru, Salih Tekin, Kursad Derinkuyu

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Electric vehicle (EV) carsharing is an alternative method to tackle urban transportation problems. This method can be applied by several options. One of the options is the one-way carsharing, which allow an EV to be taken at a designated location and leaving it on another specified location customer desires. Although it may increase users’ satisfaction, the issues, namely, demand dissatisfaction, relocation of EVs and charging schedules, must be dealt with. Also, excessive electricity has to be stored in batteries of EVs. To cope with aforementioned issues, two-step mixed integer programming (MIP) model is proposed. In first step, the integer programming model is used to determine amount of electricity to be sold to the grid in terms of time periods for extra profit. Determined amounts are provided from the batteries of EVs. Also, this step works in day-ahead electricity markets with forecast of periodical electricity prices. In second step, other MIP model optimizes daily operations of one-way carsharing: charging-discharging schedules, relocation of EVs to serve more demand and renting to maximize the profit of EV fleet owner. Due to complexity of the models, heuristic methods are introduced to attain a feasible solution and different price information scenarios are compared.

Keywords: electric vehicles, forecasting, mixed integer programming, one-way carsharing

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Authors: Ruchi Pathania, Ahmad Ahmad, Shireesh Srivastava

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Cyanobacteria is a promising microbe that can capture and convert atmospheric CO₂ and light into valuable industrial bio-products like biofuels, biodegradable plastics, etc. Among their most attractive traits are faster autotrophic growth, whole year cultivation using non-arable land, high photosynthetic activity, much greater biomass and productivity and easy for genetic manipulations. Cyanobacteria store carbon in the form of glycogen which can be hydrolyzed to release glucose and fermented to form bioethanol or other valuable products. Marine cyanobacterial species are especially attractive for countries with scarcity of freshwater. We recently identified a marine native cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. BDU 130192 which has good growth rate and high level of polyglucans accumulation compared to Synechococcus PCC 7002. In this study, firstly we sequenced the whole genome and the sequences were annotated using the RAST server. Genome scale metabolic model (GSMM) was reconstructed through COBRA toolbox. GSMM is a computational representation of the metabolic reactions and metabolites of the target strain. GSMMs construction through the application of Flux Balance Analysis (FBA), which uses external nutrient uptake rates and estimate steady state intracellular and extracellular reaction fluxes, including maximization of cell growth. The model, which we have named isyn942, includes 942 reactions and 913 metabolites having 831 metabolic, 78 transport and 33 exchange reactions. The phylogenetic tree obtained by BLAST search revealed that the strain was a close relative of Synechococcus PCC 7002. The flux balance analysis (FBA) was applied on the model iSyn942 to predict the theoretical yields (mol product produced/mol CO₂ consumed) for native and non-native products like acetone, butanol, etc. under phototrophic condition by applying metabolic engineering strategies. The reported strain can be a viable strain for biotechnological applications, and the model will be helpful to researchers interested in understanding the metabolism as well as to design metabolic engineering strategies for enhanced production of various bioproducts.

Keywords: cyanobacteria, flux balance analysis, genome scale metabolic model, metabolic engineering

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Authors: Lei Ren, Michael Hartnett, Stephen Nash

Abstract:

The abundant measured surface current from HF radar system in coastal area is assimilated into model to improve the modeling forecasting ability. A simple sequential data assimilation scheme, Direct Insertion (DI), is applied to update model forecast states. The influence of Direct Insertion data assimilation over time is analyzed at one reference point. Vector maps of surface current from models are compared with HF radar measurements. Root-Mean-Squared-Error (RMSE) between modeling results and HF radar measurements is calculated during the last four days with no data assimilation.

Keywords: data assimilation, CODAR, HF radar, surface current, direct insertion

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