Search results for: Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI)
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 9230

Search results for: Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI)

1430 Fijian Women’s Role in Disaster Risk Management: Climate Change

Authors: Priyatma Singh, Manpreet Kaur

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Climate change is progressively being identified as a global crisis and this has immediate repercussions for Fiji Islands due to its geographical location being prone to natural disasters. In the Pacific, it is common to find significant differences between men and women, in terms of their roles and responsibilities. In the pursuit of prudent preparedness before disasters, Fijian women’s engagement is constrained due to socially constructed roles and expectation of women here in Fiji. This vulnerability is aggravated by viewing women as victims, rather than as key people who have vital information of their society, economy, and environment, as well as useful skills, which, when recognized and used, can be effective in disaster risk reduction. The focus of this study on disaster management is to outline ways in which Fijian women can be actively engaged in disaster risk management, articulating in decision-making, negating the perceived ideology of women’s constricted roles in Fiji and unveiling social constraints that limit women’s access to practical disaster management strategic plan. This paper outlines the importance of gender mainstreaming in disaster risk reduction and the ways of mainstreaming gender based on a literature review. It analyses theoretical study of academic literature as well as papers and reports produced by various national and international institutions and explores ways to better inform and engage women for climate change per ser disaster management in Fiji. The empowerment of women is believed to be a critical element in constructing disaster resilience as women are often considered to be the designers of community resilience at the local level. Gender mainstreaming as a way of bringing a gender perspective into climate related disasters can be applied to distinguish the varying needs and capacities of women, and integrate them into climate change adaptation strategies. This study will advocate women articulation in disaster risk management, thus giving equal standing to females in Fiji and also identify the gaps and inform national and local Disaster Risk Management authorities to implement processes that enhance gender equality and women’s empowerment towards a more equitable and effective disaster practice.

Keywords: disaster risk management, climate change, gender mainstreaming, women empowerment

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1429 Frequency Response of Complex Systems with Localized Nonlinearities

Authors: E. Menga, S. Hernandez

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Finite Element Models (FEMs) are widely used in order to study and predict the dynamic properties of structures and usually, the prediction can be obtained with much more accuracy in the case of a single component than in the case of assemblies. Especially for structural dynamics studies, in the low and middle frequency range, most complex FEMs can be seen as assemblies made by linear components joined together at interfaces. From a modelling and computational point of view, these types of joints can be seen as localized sources of stiffness and damping and can be modelled as lumped spring/damper elements, most of time, characterized by nonlinear constitutive laws. On the other side, most of FE programs are able to run nonlinear analysis in time-domain. They treat the whole structure as nonlinear, even if there is one nonlinear degree of freedom (DOF) out of thousands of linear ones, making the analysis unnecessarily expensive from a computational point of view. In this work, a methodology in order to obtain the nonlinear frequency response of structures, whose nonlinearities can be considered as localized sources, is presented. The work extends the well-known Structural Dynamic Modification Method (SDMM) to a nonlinear set of modifications, and allows getting the Nonlinear Frequency Response Functions (NLFRFs), through an ‘updating’ process of the Linear Frequency Response Functions (LFRFs). A brief summary of the analytical concepts is given, starting from the linear formulation and understanding what the implications of the nonlinear one, are. The response of the system is formulated in both: time and frequency domain. First the Modal Database is extracted and the linear response is calculated. Secondly the nonlinear response is obtained thru the NL SDMM, by updating the underlying linear behavior of the system. The methodology, implemented in MATLAB, has been successfully applied to estimate the nonlinear frequency response of two systems. The first one is a two DOFs spring-mass-damper system, and the second example takes into account a full aircraft FE Model. In spite of the different levels of complexity, both examples show the reliability and effectiveness of the method. The results highlight a feasible and robust procedure, which allows a quick estimation of the effect of localized nonlinearities on the dynamic behavior. The method is particularly powerful when most of the FE Model can be considered as acting linearly and the nonlinear behavior is restricted to few degrees of freedom. The procedure is very attractive from a computational point of view because the FEM needs to be run just once, which allows faster nonlinear sensitivity analysis and easier implementation of optimization procedures for the calibration of nonlinear models.

Keywords: frequency response, nonlinear dynamics, structural dynamic modification, softening effect, rubber

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1428 Functional Characterization of Rv1019, a Putative TetR Family Transcriptional Regulator of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis H37Rv

Authors: Akhil Raj Pushparajan, Ranjit Ramachandran, Jijimole Gopi Reji, Ajay Kumar Ramakrishnan

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Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), is one of the leading causes of death by an infectious disease. In spite of the availability of effective drugs and a vaccine, TB is a major health concern and was declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO). The success of intracellular pathogens like Mtb depends on its ability to overcome the challenging environment in the host. Gene regulation controlled by transcriptional regulators (TRs) plays a crucial role for the bacteria to adapt to the host environment. In vitro studies on gene regulatory mechanisms during dormancy and reactivation have provided insights into the adaptations employed by Mtb to survive in the host. Here we present our efforts to functionally characterize Rv1019, a putative TR of Mtb H37Rv which was found to be present at significantly varying levels during dormancy and reactivation in vitro. The expression of this protein in the dormancy-reactivation model was validated by qRT-PCR and western blot. By DNA- protein interaction studies and reporter assays we found that under normal laboratory conditions of growth this protein behaves as an auto-repressor and tetracycline was found to abrogate this repression by interfering with its ability to bind DNA. Further, by cDNA analysis, we found that this TR is co-transcribed with its downstream genes Rv1020 (mfd) and Rv1021 (mazG) which are involved in DNA damage response in Mtb. Constitutive expression of this regulator in the surrogate host M. smegmatis showed downregulation of the orthologues of downstream genes suggested that Rv1019 could negatively regulate these genes. Our finds also show that M. smegmatis expressing Rv1019 is sensitive to DNA damage suggests the role of this protein in regulating DNA damage response induced by oxidative stress. Because of its role in regulating DNA damage response which may help in the persistence of Mtb, Rv1019 could be used as a prospective target for therapeutic intervention to fight TB.

Keywords: auto-repressor, DNA repair, mycobacterium smegmatis, mycobacterium tuberculosis, tuberculosis

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1427 Impact of Environmental Rule of Law towards Positive Environmental Outcomes in Nigeria

Authors: Kate N. Okeke

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The ever-growing needs of man requiring satisfaction have pushed him strongly towards industrialization which has and is still leaving environmental degradation and its attendant negative impacts in its wake. It is, therefore, not surprising that the enjoyment of fundamental rights like food supply, security of lives and property, freedom of worship, health and education have been drastically affected by such degradation. In recognition of the imperative need to protect the environment and human rights, many global instruments and constitutions have recognized the right to a healthy and sustainable environment. Some environmental advocates and quite a number of literatures on the subject matter call for the recognition of environmental rights via rule of law as a vital means of achieving positive outcomes on the subject matter. However, although there are numerous countries with constitutional environmental provisions, most of them such as Nigeria, have shown poor environmental performance. A notable problem is the fact that the constitution which recognizes environmental rights appears in its other provisions to contradict its provisions by making enforceability of the environmental rights unattainable. While adopting a descriptive, analytical, comparative and explanatory study design in reviewing a successful positive environmental outcome via the rule of law, this article argues that rule of law on a balance of scale, weighs more than just environmental rights recognition and therefore should receive more attention by environmental lawyers and advocates. This is because with rule of law, members of a society are sure of getting the most out of the environmental rights existing in their legal system. Members of Niger-Delta communities of Nigeria will benefit from the environmental rights existing in Nigeria. They are exposed to environmental degradation and pollution with effects such as acidic rainfall, pollution of farmlands and clean water sources. These and many more are consequences of oil and gas exploration. It will also pave way for solving the violence between cattle herdsmen and farmers in the Middle Belt and other regions of Nigeria. Their clashes are over natural resource control. Having seen that environmental rule of law is vital to sustainable development, this paper aims to contribute to discussions on how best the vehicle of rule law can be driven towards achieving positive environmental outcomes. This will be in reliance on other enforceable provisions in the Nigerian Constitution. Other domesticated international instruments will also be considered to attain sustainable environment and development.

Keywords: environment, rule of law, constitution, sustainability

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1426 Towards Intercultural Competence in EFL Textbook: the Case of ‘New Prospects’

Authors: Kamilia Mebarki

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The promotion of intercultural competence plays an important role in foreign language education. The outcome of intercultural educationalists‟ studies was the adoption of intercultural language learning and a modified version of the Communicative Competence that encompasses an intercultural component enabling language learners to communicate successfully interculturally. Intercultural Competencehas an even more central role in teaching English as a foreign language (EFL) since efforts are critical to preparing learners for intercultural communisation in our global world. In these efforts, EFL learning materials are a crucial stimulus for developing learners’ intercultural competence. There has been a continuous interest in the analysis of EFL textbooks by researcher all over the world. One specific area that has received prominent attention in recent years is a focus on how the cultural content of EFL materials promote intercultural competence. In the Algerian context, research on the locally produced EFL textbooks tend to focus on investigating the linguistic and communicative competence. The cultural content of the materials has not yet been systematically researched. Therefore, this study contributes to filling this gap by evaluating the locally published EFL textbook ‘New Prospects’ used at the high school level as well as investigating teachers’ views and attitudes on the cultural content of ‘New Prospects’ alongside two others locally produced EFL textbooks ‘Getting Through’ and ‘At the Crossroad’ used at high school level. To estimate the textbook’s potential of developing intercultural competence, mixed methods, a combination of quantitative and qualitative data collection, was used in the material evaluation analysed via content analysis and in the survey questionnaire and interview with teachers.Data collection and analysis were supported by the frameworks developed by the researcher for analysing the textbook, questionnaire, and interview. Indeed, based on the literature, three frameworks/ models are developed in this study to analyse, on one hand, the cultural contexts and themes discussed in the material that play an important role in fostering learners’ intercultural awareness. On the other hand, to evaluate the promotion of developing intercultural competence.

Keywords: intercultural communication, intercultural communicative competence, intercultural competence, EFL materials

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1425 Examining French Teachers’ Teaching and Learning Approaches in Some Selected Junior High Schools in Ghana

Authors: Paul Koffitse Agobia

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In 2020 the Ministry of Education in Ghana and the National Council for Curriculum and Assessment (NaCCA) rolled out a new curriculum, Common Core Programme (CCP) for Basic 7 to 10, that lays emphasis on character building and values which are important to the Ghanaian society by providing education that will produce character–minded learners, with problem solving skills, who can play active roles in dealing with the increasing challenges facing Ghana and the global society. Therefore, learning and teaching approaches that prioritise the use of digital learning resources and active learning are recommended. The new challenge facing Ghanaian teachers is the ability to use new technologies together with the appropriate content pedagogical knowledge to help learners develop, aside the communication skills in French, the essential 21st century skills as recommended in the new curriculum. This article focusses on the pedagogical approaches that are recommended by NaCCA. The study seeks to examine French language teachers’ understanding of the recommended pedagogical approaches and how they use digital learning resources in class to foster the development of these essential skills and values. 54 respondents, comprised 30 teachers and 24 head teachers, were selected in 6 Junior High schools in rural districts (both private and public) and 6 from Junior High schools in an urban setting. The schools were selected in three regions: Volta, Central and Western regions. A class observation checklist and an interview guide were used to collect data for the study. The study reveals that some teachers adopt teaching techniques that do not promote active learning. They demonstrate little understanding of the core competences and values, therefore, fail to integrate them in their lessons. However, some other teachers, despite their lack of understanding of learning and teaching philosophies, adopted techniques that can help learners develop some of the core competences and values. In most schools, digital learning resources are not utilized, though teachers have smartphones or laptops.

Keywords: active learning, core competences, digital learning resources, pedagogical approach, values.

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1424 Media, Politics and Power in the Representation of the Refugee and Migration Crisis in Europe

Authors: Evangelia-Matroni Tomara

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This thesis answers the question whether the media representations and reporting in 2015-2016 - especially, after the image of the drowned three-year-old Syrian boy in the Mediterranean Sea which made global headlines in the beginning of September 2015 -, the European Commission regulatory sources material and related reporting, have the power to challenge the conceptualization of humanitarianism or even redefine it. The theoretical foundations of the thesis are based on humanitarianism and its core definitions, the power of media representations and the relative portrayal of migrants, refugees and/or asylum seekers, as well as the dominant migration discourse and EU migration governance. Using content analysis for the media portrayal of migrants (436 newspaper articles) and qualitative content analysis for the European Commission Communication documents from May 2015 until June 2016 that required various depths of interpretation, this thesis allowed us to revise the concept of humanitarianism, realizing that the current crisis may seem to be a turning point for Europe but is not enough to overcome the past hostile media discourses and suppress the historical perspective of security and control-oriented EU migration policies. In particular, the crisis helped to shift the intensity of hostility and the persistence in the state-centric, border-oriented securitization in Europe into a narration of victimization rather than threat where mercy and charity dynamics are dominated and into operational mechanisms, noting the emergency of immediate management of the massive migrations flows, respectively. Although, the understanding of a rights-based response to the ongoing migration crisis, is being followed discursively in both political and media stage, the nexus described, points out that the binary between ‘us’ and ‘them’ still exists, with only difference that the ‘invaders’ are now ‘pathetic’ but still ‘invaders’. In this context, the migration crisis challenges the concept of humanitarianism because rights dignify migrants as individuals only in a discursive or secondary level while the humanitarian work is mostly related with the geopolitical and economic interests of the ‘savior’ states.

Keywords: European Union politics, humanitarianism, immigration, media representation, policy-making, refugees, security studies

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1423 When Creativity Is the Solution: How to Transform Makkah into a Creative City

Authors: Saeed Al Amoudy

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During the last decade, the rapidly growing prestige of so-called Creative Cities has inspired many other cities seeking to enhance their attractiveness, creativity, and success. However, the concept of a creative city seems to be an elusive one because it reflects a set of distinct ideologies which apply distinct ideas of creativity to physical and economic urban development. The main aim of this study is to investigate the ways in which the theoretical concept of the creative city can be usefully and practically employed to develop the urban services and global identity of Makkah, Saudi Arabia. This is a challenging prospect since no research on creative cities in the Middle East has previously been conducted. The city of Makkah and its holy sites is known as the focus of religious devotion for one and half billion Muslims around the globe, with millions travelling there on annual pilgrimage. The ideas of three of the key authors who have addressed relevant aspects of the concept of the creative city, Landry, Howkins and Florida, were explored in depth for the purpose of identifying the model which would be best suited to Makkah’s identity as a sacred city. Of these, it was the approach of Landry and others whose work was originally focused on finding creative solutions to the problems faced by cities which proved most suitable for the context of Makkah. The development strategies of five case studies of Creative Cities situated in different parts of the world, namely Vancouver, Yokohama, Glasgow, Barcelona, and Sydney, were also examined. Inspired by their diverse experiences, a model, referred to by the acronym CREATIVE, was developed by bringing together the key elements which seemed to ,account for the success of these five creative cities: Concept, Resources, Events, Attractiveness, Technology, Involvement, Vision and Enthusiasm. Expert opinion was sought on the model by presenting this for discussion at five international conferences. This model was used to guide both the process of data collection via interviews, documentation and field notes, and for analysing this, revealing that Makkah has great potential to become a Creative City. The results suggested that implementation of the CREATIVE model in Makkah would help produce creative solutions to address the problems that the city currently faces due to the growing number of pilgrims every year.

Keywords: creative city, city imaging, Makkah, sacred city

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1422 Prevalence of Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei in Shrimp Cultured in Inland Saline Water

Authors: Naveen Kumar B. T., Anuj Tyagi, Prabjeet Singh, Shanthanagouda A. H., Sumeet Rai

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Inland saline water resources are gaining the importance in expanding the aquaculture activities to mitigate the nutritional and food security issues of the world. For profitable and sustainable aquaculture practices, scientific farming, biosecurity measure, and best fish health management should be the integral part of developmental activities. Keeping in line with global awareness and trends, the Indian government has taken an innovative step to conduct disease surveillance and awareness programme for aquatic disease through network project. This ‘National Surveillance Programme for Aquatic Animal Diseases (NSPAAD)’ is being implemented in collaboration of national institutes and state agriculture universities with funding support from National Fisheries Development Board (NFDB), Govt. of India. Guru Angad Dev Veterinary and Animal Sciences University (GADVASU), Ludhiana, an NSPAAD collaborator, has been actively engaged in disease surveillance in the Indian state of Punjab. Shrimp farming in inland saline areas of Punjab is expanding at a tremendous pace under the guidance of GADVASU along with the support of State Fisheries Department. Under this national disease surveillance programme, we reported Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei (EHP) infection in the Litopenaeus vannamei cultured in the inland saline waters. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) based diagnosis was carried out using the OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) protocol. It was observed that out of 20 shrimp farms, two farms were 1st step PCR positive and two more farms were nested PCR positive. All the EHP positive ponds had shown the white faeces along with mortalities at very low rate. Therefore, implementation of biosecurity and continuous surveillance and monitoring program for finfish and shellfish aquaculture are in need of the hour to prevent and control the large-scale disease outbreaks and subsequent economic losses.

Keywords: disease, EHP, inland saline water, shrimp culture

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1421 High Culture or Low Culture: The Propagation and Popularization of the Classic of Poetry in Modern China

Authors: Fang Tang

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A major Confucian masterpiece and the earliest-known poetry anthology (composed approximately 1046-771 BCE), The Classic of Poetry, reflects different cultures in ancient China. It is regarded as a Chinese classic and one of the world’s most significant written works, an essential part of our global cultural heritage. This paper explores how the ancient Chinese classic became transformed into part of popular culture, found in folk songs circulated in Fangxian county, a mountainous location in Hubei province in central mainland China. It is the hometown of one of the most well-known authors of The Classic of Poetry, whose name is Yin Jifu. Local villagers process, refine, and recreate these poems into popular folk songs, which have been handed down from generation to generation. The folk songs based on The Classic of Poetry vividly reflect local customs, life styles, and various cultural activities. After thousands of years of singing these traditional songs, the region has become an important area to maintain part of Chinese cultural heritages; here, the original high culture is converted into a popular culture that is absorbed into people’s daily life. Based on a year’s field research and many interviews with local singers, this paper explores the ways in which locals have transformed the contents of The Classic of Poetry. It examines how today these popular folk songs become part of much-treasured culture heritage, illustrating the transformation of traditional high culture into popular culture. The paper argues that the modern adaptations of the traditional poems of The Classic of Poetry combine both oral and written cultural heritage and reflects the interaction between ancient Chinese official literature and folk literature. The paper also explores the reasons why the folk songs of The Classic of Poetry are so popular in the area, including the influences of its author Yin Jifu, the impact of ancient diasporic culture from the political centre to remote rural areas, and the interactions of local cultures (famous as Chu culture) and Chinese mainstream cultural policies.

Keywords: high/low culture, The Classic of Poetry, the functions of media, cultural policy

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1420 Formation Flying Design Applied for an Aurora Borealis Monitoring Mission

Authors: Thais Cardoso Franco, Caio Nahuel Sousa Fagonde, Willer Gomes dos Santos

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Aurora Borealis is an optical phenomenon composed of luminous events observed in the night skies in the polar regions resulting from disturbances in the magnetosphere due to the impact of solar wind particles with the Earth's upper atmosphere, channeled by the Earth's magnetic field, which causes atmospheric molecules to become excited and emit electromagnetic spectrum, leading to the display of lights in the sky. However, there are still different implications of this phenomenon under study: high intensity auroras are often accompanied by geomagnetic storms that cause blackouts on Earth and impair the transmission of signals from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Auroras are also known to occur on other planets and exoplanets, so the activity is an indication of active space weather conditions that can aid in learning about the planetary environment. In order to improve understanding of the phenomenon, this research aims to design a satellite formation flying solution for collecting and transmitting data for monitoring aurora borealis in northern hemisphere, an approach that allows studying the event with multipoint data collection in a reduced time interval, in order to allow analysis from the beginning of the phenomenon until its decline. To this end, the ideal number of satellites, the spacing between them, as well as the ideal topology to be used will be analyzed. From an orbital study, approaches from different altitudes, eccentricities and inclinations will also be considered. Given that at large relative distances between satellites in formation, controllers tend to fail, a study on the efficiency of nonlinear adaptive control methods from the point of view of position maintenance and propellant consumption will be carried out. The main orbital perturbations considered in the simulation: non-homogeneity terrestrial, atmospheric drag, gravitational action of the Sun and the Moon, accelerations due to solar radiation pressure and relativistic effects.

Keywords: formation flying, nonlinear adaptive control method, aurora borealis, adaptive SDRE method

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1419 Risk Assessment of Lead Element in Red Peppers Collected from Marketplaces in Antalya, Southern Turkey

Authors: Serpil Kilic, Ihsan Burak Cam, Murat Kilic, Timur Tongur

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Interest in the lead (Pb) has considerably increased due to knowledge about the potential toxic effects of this element, recently. Exposure to heavy metals above the acceptable limit affects human health. Indeed, Pb is accumulated through food chains up to toxic concentrations; therefore, it can pose an adverse potential threat to human health. A sensitive and reliable method for determination of Pb element in red pepper were improved in the present study. Samples (33 red pepper products having different brands) were purchased from different markets in Turkey. The selected method validation criteria (linearity, Limit of Detection, Limit of Quantification, recovery, and trueness) demonstrated. Recovery values close to 100% showed adequate precision and accuracy for analysis. According to the results of red pepper analysis, all of the tested lead element in the samples was determined at various concentrations. A Perkin- Elmer ELAN DRC-e model ICP-MS system was used for detection of Pb. Organic red pepper was used to obtain a matrix for all method validation studies. The certified reference material, Fapas chili powder, was digested and analyzed, together with the different sample batches. Three replicates from each sample were digested and analyzed. The results of the exposure levels of the elements were discussed considering the scientific opinions of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), which is the European Union’s (EU) risk assessment source associated with food safety. The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) was described by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for the calculation of potential health risks associated with long-term exposure to chemical pollutants. THQ value contains intake of elements, exposure frequency and duration, body weight and the oral reference dose (RfD). If the THQ value is lower than one, it means that the exposed population is assumed to be safe and 1 < THQ < 5 means that the exposed population is in a level of concern interval. In this study, the THQ of Pb was obtained as < 1. The results of THQ calculations showed that the values were below one for all the tested, meaning the samples did not pose a health risk to the local population. This work was supported by The Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit of Akdeniz University. Project Number: FBA-2017-2494.

Keywords: lead analyses, red pepper, risk assessment, daily exposure

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1418 A Parallel Computation Based on GPU Programming for a 3D Compressible Fluid Flow Simulation

Authors: Sugeng Rianto, P.W. Arinto Yudi, Soemarno Muhammad Nurhuda

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A computation of a 3D compressible fluid flow for virtual environment with haptic interaction can be a non-trivial issue. This is especially how to reach good performances and balancing between visualization, tactile feedback interaction, and computations. In this paper, we describe our approach of computation methods based on parallel programming on a GPU. The 3D fluid flow solvers have been developed for smoke dispersion simulation by using combinations of the cubic interpolated propagation (CIP) based fluid flow solvers and the advantages of the parallelism and programmability of the GPU. The fluid flow solver is generated in the GPU-CPU message passing scheme to get rapid development of haptic feedback modes for fluid dynamic data. A rapid solution in fluid flow solvers is developed by applying cubic interpolated propagation (CIP) fluid flow solvers. From this scheme, multiphase fluid flow equations can be solved simultaneously. To get more acceleration in the computation, the Navier-Stoke Equations (NSEs) is packed into channels of texel, where computation models are performed on pixels that can be considered to be a grid of cells. Therefore, despite of the complexity of the obstacle geometry, processing on multiple vertices and pixels can be done simultaneously in parallel. The data are also shared in global memory for CPU to control the haptic in providing kinaesthetic interaction and felling. The results show that GPU based parallel computation approaches provide effective simulation of compressible fluid flow model for real-time interaction in 3D computer graphic for PC platform. This report has shown the feasibility of a new approach of solving the compressible fluid flow equations on the GPU. The experimental tests proved that the compressible fluid flowing on various obstacles with haptic interactions on the few model obstacles can be effectively and efficiently simulated on the reasonable frame rate with a realistic visualization. These results confirm that good performances and balancing between visualization, tactile feedback interaction, and computations can be applied successfully.

Keywords: CIP, compressible fluid, GPU programming, parallel computation, real-time visualisation

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1417 Joint Probability Distribution of Extreme Water Level with Rainfall and Temperature: Trend Analysis of Potential Impacts of Climate Change

Authors: Ali Razmi, Saeed Golian

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Climate change is known to have the potential to impact adversely hydrologic patterns for variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and sea level rise. Long-term average of these climate variables could possibly change over time due to climate change impacts. In this study, trend analysis was performed on rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and water level data of a coastal area in Manhattan, New York City, Central Park and Battery Park stations to investigate if there is a significant change in the data mean. Partial Man-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Frequency analysis was then performed on data using common probability distribution functions such as Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), normal, log-normal and log-Pearson. Goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to determine the most appropriate distributions. In flood frequency analysis, rainfall and water level data are often separately investigated. However, in determining flood zones, simultaneous consideration of rainfall and water level in frequency analysis could have considerable effect on floodplain delineation (flood extent and depth). The present study aims to perform flood frequency analysis considering joint probability distribution for rainfall and storm surge. First, correlation between the considered variables was investigated. Joint probability distribution of extreme water level and temperature was also investigated to examine how global warming could affect sea level flooding impacts. Copula functions were fitted to data and joint probability of water level with rainfall and temperature for different recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 600 and 1000 was determined and compared with the severity of individual events. Results for trend analysis showed increase in long-term average of data that could be attributed to climate change impacts. GEV distribution was found as the most appropriate function to be fitted to the extreme climate variables. The results for joint probability distribution analysis confirmed the necessity for incorporation of both rainfall and water level data in flood frequency analysis.

Keywords: climate change, climate variables, copula, joint probability

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1416 PhenoScreen: Development of a Systems Biology Tool for Decision Making in Recurrent Urinary Tract Infections

Authors: Jonathan Josephs-Spaulding, Hannah Rettig, Simon Graspeunter, Jan Rupp, Christoph Kaleta

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Background: Recurrent urinary tract infections (rUTIs) are a global cause of emergency room visits and represent a significant burden for public health systems. Therefore, metatranscriptomic approaches to investigate metabolic exchange and crosstalk between uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC), which is responsible for 90% of UTIs, and collaborating pathogens of the urogenital microbiome is necessary to better understand the pathogenetic processes underlying rUTIs. Objectives: This study aims to determine the level in which uropathogens optimize the host urinary metabolic environment to succeed during invasion. By developing patient-specific metabolic models of infection, these observations can be taken advantage of for the precision treatment of human disease. Methods: To date, we have set up an rUTI patient cohort and observed various urine-associated pathogens. From this cohort, we developed patient-specific metabolic models to predict bladder microbiome metabolism during rUTIs. This was done by creating an in silico metabolomic urine environment, which is representative of human urine. Metabolic models of uptake and cross-feeding of rUTI pathogens were created from genomes in relation to the artificial urine environment. Finally, microbial interactions were constrained by metatranscriptomics to indicate patient-specific metabolic requirements of pathogenic communities. Results: Metabolite uptake and cross-feeding are essential for strain growth; therefore, we plan to design patient-specific treatments by adjusting urinary metabolites through nutritional regimens to counteract uropathogens by depleting essential growth metabolites. These methods will provide mechanistic insights into the metabolic components of rUTI pathogenesis to provide an evidence-based tool for infection treatment.

Keywords: recurrent urinary tract infections, human microbiome, uropathogenic Escherichia coli, UPEC, microbial ecology

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1415 Evaluating the Impact of a Child Sponsorship Program on Paediatric Health and Development in Calauan, Philippines: A Retrospective Audit

Authors: Daniel Faraj, Arabella Raupach, Charlotte Hespe, Helen Wilcox, Kristie-Lee Anning

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Aim: International child sponsorship programs comprise a considerable proportion of global aid accessible to the general population. Team Philippines (TP), a healthcare and welfare initiative run in association with the University of Notre Dame Sydney since 2013, leads a holistic sponsorship program for thirty children from Calauan, Philippines. To date, empirical research has not been performed on the overall success and impact of the TP child sponsorship program. As such, this study aims to evaluate its effectiveness in improving pediatric outcomes. Methods: Study cohorts comprised thirty sponsored and twenty-nine age- and gender-matched non-sponsored children. Data were extracted from the TP Medical Director database and lifestyle questionnaires for July-November 2019. Outcome measures included anthropometry, markers of medical health, dental health, exercise, and diet. Statistical analyses were performed in SPSS. Results: Sponsorship resulted in fewer medical diagnoses and prescription medications, superior dental health, and improved diet. Further, sponsored children may show a clinically significant trend toward improved physical health. Sponsorship did not affect growth and development metrics or levels of physical activity. Conclusions: The TP child sponsorship program significantly impacts positive pediatric health outcomes in the Calauan community. The strength of the program lies in its holistic, sustainable, and community-based model, which is enabled by effective international child sponsorship. This study further supports the relationship between supporting early livelihood and improved health in the pediatric population.

Keywords: child health, public health, health status disparities, healthcare disparities, social determinants of health, morbidity, community health services, culturally competent care, medically underserved areas, population health management, Philippines

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1414 The Influencing Factors of Export Performance Amongst Halal Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) in Malaysia

Authors: Shanorfizah Mohd Safar, Shaizatulaqma Kamalul Ariffin

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Internationalization of halal small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is necessary for SMEs to become more involved in regional trade and business cooperation. By internationalization, SMEs' profit can increase, and market expansion of SMEs is basic for rising economies of countries to contend all around in the halal industry globally. There are several modes of internationalization; exporting is one of the first steps for internationalization with less capital needed. The study examines the influential factors of export performance amongst halal SMEs in Malaysia. Specifically, this study examines the positive and significant relationships amongst human capital, managerial capability, Halal Assurance Management System (HAMS), digital transformation, government support, and networking capability on halal SMEs' export performance toward SMEs' competitive advantage. In addition, this study will examine innovation capabilities as a moderator in the relationship between independence variables and competitive advantage. Competitive advantage is the most compelling perspective that drives the export performance of halal SMEs in Malaysia. A quantitative method will be used: an online questionnaire survey distributed through emails and face-to-face toward selected halal-certificated SMEs registered in JAKIM, MATRADE website and SME Corp Malaysia website. Nevertheless, whether the halal SMEs practice global business, they will still be the potential respondents. The data were examined and obtained using the statistical software Smart PLS. The analysis used is reliability, correlation, and regression analysis to meet the research objectives. This study contributes significantly to the theory by integrating Resource Based View (RBV) theory, Technology–Organization–Environment (TOE) framework and Networking theory. In addition, this research extends the RBV by extending a variable, the Halal Assurance Management System. This study also examines a moderating role of innovation capabilities in the framework and competitive advantage as a mediator. This research aims to analyze the factors that will impact the internationalization of halal SMEs.

Keywords: internationalization, halal SMEs, competitive advantage, export performance

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1413 Slöjd International: Translating and Tracking Nordic Curricula for Holistic Health, 1890s-1920s

Authors: Sasha Mullally

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This paper investigates the transnational circulation of European Nordic ideas about and programs for manual education and training over the decades spanning the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Based on the unexamined but voluminous correspondence (English-language) of Otto Salomon, an internationally famous education reformer who popularized a form of manual training called "slöjd" (anglicized as "sloyd"), this paper examines it's circulation and translation across global cultures. Salomon, a multilingual promoter of new standardized program for manual training, based his curricula on traditional handcrqafts, particularly Swedish woodworking. He and his followers claimed that the integration of manual training and craft work provided primary and secondary educators with an opportunity to cultivate the mental, but also the physical, and tangentially, the spiritual, health of children. While historians have examined the networks who came together in person to train at his slöjd school for educators in western Sweden, no one has mapped the international community he cultivated over decades of letter writing. Additionally, while the circulation of his ideas in Britain and Germany, as well as the northeastern United States has been placed in a broader narrative of "western" education reform in the Progressive or late Victorian era, no one has examined the correspondence for evidence of the program's wider international appeal beyond Europe and North America. This paper fills this gap by examining the breadth of his reach through active correspondence with educators in Asia (Japan), South America (Brazil), and Africa (South Africa and Zimbabwe). As such, this research presents an opportunity to map the international communities of education reformers active at the turn of the last century, compare and contrast their understandings of and interpretations of "holistic" education, and reveal the ways manual formation was understood to be foundational to the healthy development of children.

Keywords: history of education, history of medicine and psychiatry, child health, child formation, internationalism

Procedia PDF Downloads 87
1412 Women Entrepreneurship in Poland and Its Impact on the Country’s Economic Development

Authors: Sabina Klimek

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In general, entrepreneurs are viewed as agents of change whose goal is to ensure that resources are efficiently utilized. They are very important in the global economy; they create wealth and provide jobs. At the same time, many policymakers say that women entrepreneurs are a ‘special group’ worthy of their own research and policies. The status of Polish women has been changing as well, even though, to a large extent, it is still defined by the double role that women are expected to fill according to the dominant stereotypical model of family life. However, in the past decade, Polish women’s economic activities have experienced rapid growth and today are at a high level. In the article, the author presents the results of a survey conducted among women entrepreneurs in Poland concerning the functioning of their enterprises, motivation in setting up a company, and barriers that hinder them in business. The questionnaire (300 questionnaires were provided) and case studies carried out by the author have proven that female entrepreneurs in Poland are characterized by commonalities. Mostly they run small or micro-enterprises, operate in larger cities, are well-educated, and run service companies. Their main motivation to run their own business is mostly indicated by their need for independence. However, one of their biggest barriers and hesitations is the apprehension of non-payment. Entrepreneurs want to develop their companies, go to foreign markets and implement new solutions. They are not afraid of the future; they are only trying to create it. Detailed hypothesis, which reads as follows. The author additionally conducted a macroeconomic analysis calculating what part of GDP in Poland is produced by female entrepreneurs. The results of the study presented in this article prove that female entrepreneurship in Poland has a stable impact on the economy of the country, and women entrepreneurs produce over 13% of the national GDP. After years of growth in the number of female entrepreneurs in Poland, there has been a period of stabilization. However, there has also been a reduction in the number of self-employed people as well as the number of women in total employment. In the article, the author analyses the reasons for decreasing number of self-employed women and the total employment of women in Poland and provides suggestions for steps and incentives that should be made in order to encourage female entrepreneurship to grow in the country.

Keywords: women entrepreneurship, women in business, women entrepreneurship in Poland, Poland, GDP of Poland

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1411 The Impact of AI on Consumers’ Morality: An Empirical Evidence

Authors: Mingxia Zhu, Matthew Tingchi Liu

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AI grows gradually in the market with its efficiency and accuracy, influencing people’s perceptions, attitude, and even consequential behaviors. Current study extends prior research by focusing on AI’s impact on consumers’ morality. First, study 1 tested individuals’ believes about AI and human’s moral perceptions and people’s attribution of moral worth to AI and human. Moral perception refers to a computational system an entity maintains to detect and identify moral violations, while moral worth here denotes whether individual regard an entity as worthy of moral treatment. To identify the effect of AI on consumers’ morality, two studies were employed. Study 1 is a within-subjects survey, while study 2 is an experimental study. In the study 1, one hundred and forty participants were recruited through online survey company in China (M_age = 27.31 years, SD = 7.12 years; 65% female). The participants were asked to assign moral perception and moral worth to AI and human. A paired samples t-test reveals that people generally regard that human has higher moral perception (M_Human = 6.03, SD = .86) than AI (M_AI = 2.79, SD = 1.19; t(139) = 27.07, p < .001; Cohen’s d = 1.41). In addition, another paired samples t-test results showed that people attributed higher moral worth to the human personnel (M_Human = 6.39, SD = .56) compared with AIs (M_AI = 5.43, SD = .85; t(139) = 12.96, p < .001; d = .88). In the next study, two hundred valid samples were recruited from survey company in China (M_age = 27.87 years, SD = 6.68 years; 55% female) and the participants were randomly assigned to two conditions (AI vs. human). After viewing the stimuli of human versus AI, participants are informed that one insurance company would determine the price purely based on their declaration. Therefore, their open-ended answers were coded into ethical, honest behavior and unethical, dishonest behavior according to the design of prior literature. A Chi-square analysis revealed that 64% of the participants would immorally lie towards AI insurance inspector while 42% of participants reported deliberately lower mileage facing with human inspector (χ^2 (1) = 9.71, p = .002). Similarly, the logistic regression results suggested that people would significantly more likely to report fraudulent answer when facing with AI (β = .89, odds ratio = 2.45, Wald = 9.56, p = .002). It is demonstrated that people would be more likely to behave unethically in front of non-human agents, such as AI agent, rather than human. The research findings shed light on new practical ethical issues in human-AI interaction and address the important role of human employees during the process of service delivery in the new era of AI.

Keywords: AI agent, consumer morality, ethical behavior, human-AI interaction

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1410 Identifying the Factors that Influence Water-Use Efficiency in Agriculture: Case Study in a Spanish Semi-Arid Region

Authors: Laura Piedra-Muñoz, Ángeles Godoy-Durán, Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, Juan C. Pérez-Mesa

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The current agricultural system in some arid and semi-arid areas is not sustainable in the long term. In southeast Spain, groundwater is the main water source and is overexploited, while alternatives like desalination are still limited. The Water Plan for the Mediterranean Basins 2015-2020 indicates a global deficit of 73.42 hm3 and an overexploitation of the aquifers of 205.58hm3. In order to solve this serious problem, two major actions can be taken: increasing available water, and/or improving the efficiency of its use. This study focuses on the latter. The main aim of this study is to present the major factors related to water usage efficiency in farming. It focuses on Almería province, southeast Spain, one of the most arid areas of the country, and in particular on family farms as the main direct managers of water use in this zone. Many of these farms are among the most water efficient in Spanish agriculture, but this efficiency is not generalized throughout the sector. This work conducts a comprehensive assessment of water performance in this area, using on-farm water-use, structural, socio-economic and environmental information. Two statistical techniques are used: descriptive analysis and cluster analysis. Thus, two groups are identified: the least and the most efficient farms regarding water usage. By analyzing both the common characteristics within each group and the differences between the groups with a one-way ANOVA analysis, several conclusions can be reached. The main differences between the two clusters center on the extent to which innovation and new technologies are used in irrigation. The most water efficient farms are characterized by more educated farmers, a greater degree of innovation, new irrigation technology, specialized production and awareness of water issues and environmental sustainability. The research shows that better practices and policies can have a substantial impact on achieving a more sustainable and efficient use of water. The findings of this study can be extended to farms in similar arid and semi-arid areas and contribute to foster appropriate policies to improve the efficiency of water usage in the agricultural sector.

Keywords: cluster analysis, family farms, Spain, water-use efficiency

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1409 Relationships of Functional Status and Subjective Health Status among Stable Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients Residing in the Community

Authors: Hee-Young Song

Abstract:

Background and objectives: In 2011, the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) recommendations proposed a multidimensional assessment of patients’ conditions that included both functional parameters and patient-reported outcomes, with the aim to provide a comprehensive assessment of the disease, thus meeting both the needs of the patient and the role of the physician. However, few studies have evaluated patient-reported outcomes as well as objective functional assessments among individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in clinical practice in Korea. This study was undertaken to explore the relationship between functional status assessed by the 6-minute walking distance (MWD) test and subjective health status reported by stable patients with COPD residing in community. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted with 118 stable COPD patients aged 69.4 years old and selected by a convenient sampling from an outpatient department of pulmonology in a tertiaryhospitals. The 6-MWD test was conducted according to standardized instructions. Participants also completed a constructed questionnaire including general characteristics, smoking history, dyspnea by modified medical research council (mMRC) scale, and health status by COPD assessment test (CAT). Anthropometric measurements were performed for body mass index (BMI). Medical records were reviewed to obtain disease-related characteristics including duration of the disease and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1). Data were analyzed using PASW statistics 20.0. Results: Mean FEV1% of participants was 63.51% and mean 6-MWD and CAT scores were 297.54m and 17.7, respectively. The 6-MWD and CAT showed significant negative correlations (r= -.280, p=.002); FEV1 and CAT did as well correlations (r= -.347, p < .001). Conclusions: Findings suggest that the better functional status an individual with COPD has, the better subjective health status is, and provide the support for using patient-reported outcomes along with functional parameters to facilitate comprehensive assessment of COPD patients in real clinical practices.

Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD assessment test, functional status, patient-reported outcomes

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1408 Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Plants: The Current Position and Requirements

Authors: A. Stifi, S. Gentes

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Undoubtedly from construction's perspective, the use of explosives will remove a large facility such as a 40-storey building , that took almost 3 to 4 years for construction, in few minutes. Usually, the reconstruction or decommissioning, the last phase of life cycle of any facility, is considered to be the shortest. However, this is proved to be wrong in the case of nuclear power plant. Statistics says that in the last 30 years, the construction of a nuclear power plant took an average time of 6 years whereas it is estimated that decommissioning of such plants may take even a decade or more. This paper is all about the decommissioning phase of a nuclear power plant which needs to be given more attention and encouragement from the research institutes as well as the nuclear industry. Currently, there are 437 nuclear power reactors in operation and 70 reactors in construction. With around 139 nuclear facilities already been shut down and are in different decommissioning stages and approximately 347 nuclear reactors will be in decommissioning phase in the next 20 years (assuming the operation time of a reactor as 40 years), This fact raises the following two questions (1) How far is the nuclear and construction Industry ready to face the challenges of decommissioning project? (2) What is required for a safety and reliable decommissioning project delivery? The decommissioning of nuclear facilities across the global have severe time and budget overruns. Largely the decommissioning processes are being executed by the force of manual labour where the change in regulations is respectively observed. In term of research and development, some research projects and activities are being carried out in this area, but the requirement seems to be much more. The near future of decommissioning shall be better through a sustainable development strategy where all stakeholders agree to implement innovative technologies especially for dismantling and decontamination processes and to deliever a reliable and safety decommissioning. The scope of technology transfer from other industries shall be explored. For example, remotery operated robotic technologies used in automobile and production industry to reduce time and improve effecincy and saftey shall be tried here. However, the innovative technologies are highly requested but they are alone not enough, the implementation of creative and innovative management methodologies should be also investigated and applied. Lean Management with it main concept "elimination of waste within process", is a suitable example here. Thus, the cooperation between international organisations and related industries and the knowledge-sharing may serve as a key factor for the successful decommissioning projects.

Keywords: decommissioning of nuclear facilities, innovative technology, innovative management, sustainable development

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1407 Towards the Need of Resilient Design and Its Assessment in South China

Authors: Alan Lai, Wilson Yik

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With rapid urbanization, there has been a dramatic increase in global urban population in Asia and over half of population in Asia will live in urban regions in the near future. Facing with increasing exposure to climate-related stresses and shocks, most of the Asian cities will very likely to experience more frequent heat waves and flooding with rising sea levels, particularly the coastal cities will grapple for intense typhoons and storm surges. These climate changes have severe impacts in urban areas at the costs of infrastructure and population, for example, human health, wellbeing and high risks of dengue fever, malaria and diarrheal disease. With the increasing prominence of adaptation to climate changes, there have been changes in corresponding policies. Smaller cities have greater potentials for integrating the concept of resilience into their infrastructure as well as keeping pace with their rapid growths in population. It is therefore important to explore the potentials of Asian cities adapting to climate change and the opportunities of building climate resilience in urban planning and building design. Furthermore, previous studies have mainly attempted at exploiting the potential of resilience on a macro-level within urban planning rather than that on micro-level within the context of individual building. The resilience of individual building as a research field has not yet been much explored. Nonetheless, recent studies define that the resilience of an individual building is the one which is able to respond to physical damage and recover from such damage in a quickly and cost-effectively manner, while maintain its primary functions. There is also a need to develop an assessment tool to evaluate the resilience on building scale which is still largely uninvestigated as it should be regarded as a basic function of a building. Due to the lack of literature reporting metric for assessing building resilience with sustainability, the research will be designed as a case study to provide insight into the issue. The aim of this research project is to encourage and assist in developing neighborhood climate resilience design strategies for Hong Kong so as to bridge the gap between difference scales and that between theory and practice.

Keywords: resilience cities, building resilience, resilient buildings and infrastructure, climate resilience, hot and humid southeast area, high-density cities

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1406 Algae for Wastewater Treatment and CO₂ Sequestration along with Recovery of Bio-Oil and Value Added Products

Authors: P. Kiran Kumar, S. Vijaya Krishna, Kavita Verma1, V. Himabindu

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Concern about global warming and energy security has led to increased biomass utilization as an alternative feedstock to fossil fuels. Biomass is a promising feedstock since it is abundant and cheap and can be transformed into fuels and chemical products. Microalgae biofuels are likely to have a much lower impact on the environment. Microalgae cultivation using sewage with industrial flue gases is a promising concept for integrated biodiesel production, CO₂ sequestration, and nutrients recovery. Autotrophic, Mixotrophic, and Heterotrophic are the three modes of cultivation for microalgae biomass. Several mechanical and chemical processes are available for the extraction of lipids/oily components from microalgae biomass. In organic solvent extraction methods, a prior drying of biomass and recovery of the solvent is required, which are energy-intensive. Thus, the hydrothermal process overcomes the drawbacks of conventional solvent extraction methods. In the hydrothermal process, the biomass is converted into oily components by processing in a hot, pressurized water environment. In this process, in addition to the lipid fraction of microalgae, other value-added products such as proteins, carbohydrates, and nutrients can also be recovered. In the present study was (Scenedesmus quadricauda) was isolated and cultivated in autotrophic, heterotrophic, and mixotrophically using sewage wastewater and industrial flue gas in batch and continuous mode. The harvested algae biomass from S. quadricauda was used for the recovery of lipids and bio-oil. The lipids were extracted from the algal biomass using sonication as a cell disruption method followed by solvent (Hexane) extraction, and the lipid yield obtained was 8.3 wt% with Palmitic acid, Oleic acid, and Octadeonoic acid as fatty acids. The hydrothermal process was also carried out for extraction of bio-oil, and the yield obtained was 18wt%. The bio-oil compounds such as nitrogenous compounds, organic acids, and esters, phenolics, hydrocarbons, and alkanes were obtained by the hydrothermal process of algal biomass. Nutrients such as NO₃⁻ (68%) and PO₄⁻ (15%) were also recovered along with bio-oil in the hydrothermal process.

Keywords: flue gas, hydrothermal process, microalgae, sewage wastewater, sonication

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1405 Spontaneous Eruption of Impacted Teeth While Awaiting Surgical Intervention

Authors: Alison Ryan, Himani Chhabra, Mohammed Dungarwalla, Judith Jones

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Background: Impacted and ectopic teeth present in 1-2% of orthodontic patients and often require joint surgical and orthodontic management. The authors present two patients undergoing orthodontic treatment, where the impacted teeth, in a hopeless position, spontaneously erupted during the period of cessation of general anaesthetic lists during the COVID-19 pandemic. Patient information: A healthy 11-year-old boy was referred to the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery for the management of a mesioangular impacted LR7. The patient was seen by the joint oral surgery/orthodontic team, who planned for the removal of the LR7 under general anaesthetic. A healthy 13-year-old boy was referred to the same Department and team for surgical extraction of unerupted and buccally impacted UL3 and UR3 under general anaesthetic. Management and outcome: The majority of elective dental-alveolar work ceased as a result of the global pandemic. On resumption of activity, the first patient was reviewed in July 2021. The LR7 had spontaneously erupted in a favourable position, and following MDT review, a decision was made to forgo any further surgical intervention. The second patient was reviewed in July 2021. The UL3 had clinically erupted, and there was radiographic evidence of favourable movement of UR3. Due to the nature of the patient’s malocclusion, the decision was made to proceed with the extractions as previously planned. Key Learning Points: Severely impacted teeth do have a prospect of spontaneous eruption or alignment without clinical intervention, and current literature states the initial location, axial inclination, degree of root formation, and relation of the impacted tooth to adjacent teeth roots may influence spontaneous eruption. There is potential to introduce a period of observation to account for this possibility in the developing dentition, with the aim of reducing the unnecessary need for surgical intervention. This could help prevent episodes of general anaesthetic and allocate theatre space more appropriately.

Keywords: spontaneous eruption, impaction, observation, hopeless position, surgical, orthodontic, change in treatment plan

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1404 Development of Structural Deterioration Models for Flexible Pavement Using Traffic Speed Deflectometer Data

Authors: Sittampalam Manoharan, Gary Chai, Sanaul Chowdhury, Andrew Golding

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The primary objective of this paper is to present a simplified approach to develop the structural deterioration model using traffic speed deflectometer data for flexible pavements. Maintaining assets to meet functional performance is not economical or sustainable in the long terms, and it would end up needing much more investments for road agencies and extra costs for road users. Performance models have to be included for structural and functional predicting capabilities, in order to assess the needs, and the time frame of those needs. As such structural modelling plays a vital role in the prediction of pavement performance. A structural condition is important for the prediction of remaining life and overall health of a road network and also major influence on the valuation of road pavement. Therefore, the structural deterioration model is a critical input into pavement management system for predicting pavement rehabilitation needs accurately. The Traffic Speed Deflectometer (TSD) is a vehicle-mounted Doppler laser system that is capable of continuously measuring the structural bearing capacity of a pavement whilst moving at traffic speeds. The device’s high accuracy, high speed, and continuous deflection profiles are useful for network-level applications such as predicting road rehabilitations needs and remaining structural service life. The methodology adopted in this model by utilizing time series TSD maximum deflection (D0) data in conjunction with rutting, rutting progression, pavement age, subgrade strength and equivalent standard axle (ESA) data. Then, regression analyses were undertaken to establish a correlation equation of structural deterioration as a function of rutting, pavement age, seal age and equivalent standard axle (ESA). This study developed a simple structural deterioration model which will enable to incorporate available TSD structural data in pavement management system for developing network-level pavement investment strategies. Therefore, the available funding can be used effectively to minimize the whole –of- life cost of the road asset and also improve pavement performance. This study will contribute to narrowing the knowledge gap in structural data usage in network level investment analysis and provide a simple methodology to use structural data effectively in investment decision-making process for road agencies to manage aging road assets.

Keywords: adjusted structural number (SNP), maximum deflection (D0), equant standard axle (ESA), traffic speed deflectometer (TSD)

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1403 Supporting International Student’s Acculturation Through Chatbot Technology: A Proposed Study

Authors: Sylvie Studente

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Despite the increase in international students migrating to the UK, the transition from home environment to a host institution abroad can be overwhelming for many students due to acculturative stressors. These stressors are reported to peak within the first six months of transitioning into study abroad which has determinantal impacts for Higher Education Institutions. These impacts include; increased drop-out rates and overall decreases in academic performance. Research suggests that belongingness can negate acculturative stressors through providing opportunities for students to form necessary social connections. In response to this universities have focussed on utilising technology to create learning communities with the most commonly deployed being social media, blogs, and discussion forums. Despite these attempts, the application of technology in supporting international students is still ambiguous. With the reported growing popularity of mobile devices among students and accelerations in learning technology owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, the potential is recognised to address this challenge via the use of chatbot technology. Whilst traditionally, chatbots were deployed as conversational agents in business domains, they have since been applied to the field of education. Within this emerging area of research, a gap exists in addressing the educational value of chatbots over and above the traditional service orientation categorisation. The proposed study seeks to extend upon current understandings by investigating the challenges faced by international students in studying abroad and exploring the potential of chatbots as a solution to assist students’ acculturation. There has been growing interest in the application of chatbot technology to education accelerated by the shift to online learning during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although interest in educational chatbots has surged, there is a lack of consistency in the research area in terms of guidance on the design to support international students in HE. This gap is widened when considering the additional challenge of supporting multicultural international students with diverse. Diversification in education is rising due to increases in migration trends for international study. As global opportunities for education increase, so does the need for multiculturally inclusive learning support.

Keywords: chatbots, education, international students, acculturation

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1402 Spatial Distribution, Characteristics, and Pollution Risk Assessment of Microplastics in Sediments from Karnaphuli River Estuary, Bangladesh

Authors: Md. Refat Jahan Rakiba, M. Belal Hossaina, Rakesh Kumarc, Md. Akram Ullaha, Sultan Al Nahiand, Nazmun Naher Rimaa, Tasrina Rabia Choudhury, Samia Islam Libaf, Jimmy Yub, Mayeen Uddin Khandakerg, Abdelmoneim Suliemanh, Mohamed Mahmoud Sayedi

Abstract:

Microplastics (MPs) have become an emerging global pollutant due to their wide spread and dispersion and potential threats to marine ecosystems. However, studies on MPs of estuarine and coastal ecosystems of Bangladesh are very limited or not available. In this study, we conducted the first study on the abundance, distribution, characteristics and potential risk assessment of microplastics in the sediment of Karnaphuli River estuary, Bangladesh. Microplastic particles were extracted from sediments of 30 stations along the estuary by density separation, and then enumerated and characterize by using steromicroscope and Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. In the collected sediment, the number of MPs varied from 22.29 - 59.5 items kg−1 of dry weight (DW) with an average of 1177 particles kg−1 DW. The mean abundance was higher in the downstream and left bank of estuary where the predominant shape, colour, and size of MPs were films (35%), white (19%), and >5000 μm (19%), respectively. The main polymer types were polyethylene terephthalate, polystyrene, polyethylene, cellulose, and nylon. MPs were found to pose risks (low to high) in the sediment of the estuary, with the highest risk occuring at one station near a sewage outlet, according to the results of risk analyses using the pollution risk index (PRI), polymer risk index (H), contamination factors (CFs), and pollution load index (PLI). The single value index, PLI clearly demonastated that all sampling sites were considerably polluted (as PLI >1) with microplastics. H values showed toxic polymers even in lower proportions possess higher polymeric hazard scores and vice versa. This investigation uncovered new insights on the status of MPs in the sediments of Karnaphuli River estuary, laying the groundwork for future research and control of microplastic pollution and management.

Keywords: microplastics, polymers, pollution risk assessment, Karnaphuli esttuary

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1401 Hybrid Model: An Integration of Machine Learning with Traditional Scorecards

Authors: Golnush Masghati-Amoli, Paul Chin

Abstract:

Over the past recent years, with the rapid increases in data availability and computing power, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been called on in a range of different industries for their strong predictive capability. However, the use of Machine Learning in commercial banking has been limited due to a special challenge imposed by numerous regulations that require lenders to be able to explain their analytic models, not only to regulators but often to consumers. In other words, although Machine Leaning techniques enable better prediction with a higher level of accuracy, in comparison with other industries, they are adopted less frequently in commercial banking especially for scoring purposes. This is due to the fact that Machine Learning techniques are often considered as a black box and fail to provide information on why a certain risk score is given to a customer. In order to bridge this gap between the explain-ability and performance of Machine Learning techniques, a Hybrid Model is developed at Dun and Bradstreet that is focused on blending Machine Learning algorithms with traditional approaches such as scorecards. The Hybrid Model maximizes efficiency of traditional scorecards by merging its practical benefits, such as explain-ability and the ability to input domain knowledge, with the deep insights of Machine Learning techniques which can uncover patterns scorecard approaches cannot. First, through development of Machine Learning models, engineered features and latent variables and feature interactions that demonstrate high information value in the prediction of customer risk are identified. Then, these features are employed to introduce observed non-linear relationships between the explanatory and dependent variables into traditional scorecards. Moreover, instead of directly computing the Weight of Evidence (WoE) from good and bad data points, the Hybrid Model tries to match the score distribution generated by a Machine Learning algorithm, which ends up providing an estimate of the WoE for each bin. This capability helps to build powerful scorecards with sparse cases that cannot be achieved with traditional approaches. The proposed Hybrid Model is tested on different portfolios where a significant gap is observed between the performance of traditional scorecards and Machine Learning models. The result of analysis shows that Hybrid Model can improve the performance of traditional scorecards by introducing non-linear relationships between explanatory and target variables from Machine Learning models into traditional scorecards. Also, it is observed that in some scenarios the Hybrid Model can be almost as predictive as the Machine Learning techniques while being as transparent as traditional scorecards. Therefore, it is concluded that, with the use of Hybrid Model, Machine Learning algorithms can be used in the commercial banking industry without being concerned with difficulties in explaining the models for regulatory purposes.

Keywords: machine learning algorithms, scorecard, commercial banking, consumer risk, feature engineering

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