Search results for: multi-hazard risk mapping

Authors: N. G. Obaje, S. I. Ibrahim, N. Dadi-Mamud, M. K. Musa, I. Yusuf

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An integrated study combining geological prospectivity mapping and geophysical aeromagnetic interpretation was carried out to determine hydrocarbon new business opportunities that may exist in the Bida Basin of Central Nigeria. Geological mapping was used to delineate the geological boundaries between the formations which is a significant initial criterion in evaluating hydrocarbon prospectivity. Processed and interpreted geophysical aeromagnetic data over the basin juxtaposed against the geological map has led to ranking of the prospectivity as less prospective, prospective and more prospective. The prospective and more prospective areas constitute new hydrocarbon business opportunities in the basin. The more prospective areas are at Pattishabakolo near Bida and at Kandi near Gulu. Prospective areas cover Badegi, Lemu, Duba, Kutigi, Auna, Mashegu and Mokwa. Geochemical data show that hydrocarbon source rocks exist within the Enagi and Patti formations in the northern and southern sections respectively. The geophysical aeromagnetic data indicates depths of more than 2,000m (> 2 Km) within the identified prospective areas. New business opportunities as used here refer to open acreages in Nigeria’s sedimentary basins that have not been licensed out by the government (Department of Petroleum Resources) to any operator but with significant potentials for commercial hydrocarbon accumulation.

Keywords: hydrocarbon, aeromagnetic, business opportunity, Bida Basin

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Authors: Sintayehu W. Dejene, Ignas M. A. Heitkönig, Herbert H. T. Prins, Zewdu K. Tessema, Willem F. de Boer

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Current theories on diversity-disease relationships describe host species diversity and species identity as important factors influencing disease risk, either diluting or amplifying disease prevalence in a community. Whereas the simple term ‘diversity’ embodies a set of animal community characteristics, it is not clear how different measures of species diversity are correlated with disease risk. We, therefore, tested the effects of species richness, Pielou’s evenness and Shannon’s diversity on bTB risk in cattle in the Afar Region and Awash National Park between November 2013 and April 2015. We also analysed the identity effect of a particular species and the effect of host habitat use overlap on bTB risk. We used the comparative intradermal tuberculin test to assess the number of bTB infected cattle. Our results suggested a dilution effect through species evenness. We found that the identity effect of greater kudu - a maintenance host – confounded the dilution effect of species diversity on bTB risk. bTB infection was positively correlated with habitat use overlap between greater kudu and cattle. Different diversity indices have to be considered together for assessing diversity-disease relationships, for understanding the underlying causal mechanisms. We posit that unpacking diversity metrics is also relevant for formulating control strategies to manage cattle in ecosystems characterized by seasonally limited resources and intense wildlife-livestock interactions.

Keywords: evenness, diversity, greater kudu, identity effect, maintenance hosts, multi-host disease ecology, habitat use overlap

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Authors: Marc Toutain, Pascale Leconte, Antoine Gauthier

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Introduction: Eating Disorders (ED), such as anorexia, bulimia, and binge eating, are psychiatric illnesses that mostly affect young people. The main symptoms concern eating (restriction, excessive food intake) and weight control behaviors (laxatives, vomiting). Psychological comorbidities (depression, executive function disorders, etc.) and problematic behaviors toward physical activity (PA) are commonly associated with ED. Acquaintances on ED risk factors are still lacking, and more community sample studies are needed to improve prevention and early detection. To our knowledge, studies are needed to specifically investigate the link between ED risk level, PA, and psychological risk factors in a community sample of adolescents. The aim of this study is to assess the relation between ED risk level, exercise (type, frequency, and motivations for engaging in exercise), and psychological factors based on the Jacobi risk factors model. We suppose that a high risk of ED will be associated with the practice of high caloric cost PA, motivations oriented to weight and shape control, and psychological disturbances. Method: An online survey destined for students has been sent to several middle schools and colleges in northwest France. This survey combined several questionnaires, the Eating Attitude Test-26 assessing ED risk; the Exercise Motivation Inventory–2 assessing motivations toward PA; the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale assessing anxiety and depression, the Contour Drawing Rating Scale; and the Body Esteem Scale assessing body dissatisfaction, Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale assessing self-esteem, the Exercise Dependence Scale-Revised assessing PA dependence, the Multidimensional Assessment of Interoceptive Awareness assessing interoceptive awareness and the Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale assessing perfectionism. Machine learning analysis will be performed in order to constitute groups with a tree-based model clustering method, extract risk profile(s) with a bootstrap method comparison, and predict ED risk with a prediction method based on a decision tree-based model. Expected results: 1044 complete records have already been collected, and the survey will be closed at the end of May 2022. Records will be analyzed with a clustering method and a bootstrap method in order to reveal risk profile(s). Furthermore, a predictive tree decision method will be done to extract an accurate predictive model of ED risk. This analysis will confirm typical main risk factors and will give more data on presumed strong risk factors such as exercise motivations and interoceptive deficit. Furthermore, it will enlighten particular risk profiles with a strong level of proof and greatly contribute to improving the early detection of ED and contribute to a better understanding of ED risk factors.

Keywords: eating disorders, risk factors, physical activity, machine learning

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Authors: Anne C. Richer-De-Forges, Dominique Arrouays, Songchao Chen, Mercedes Roman Dobarco

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Most of the digital soil mapping (DSM) products rely on machine learning (ML) prediction models and/or the use or pedotransfer functions (PTF) in which calibration data come from soil analyses performed in labs. However, many other observations (often qualitative, nominal, or ordinal) could be used as proxies of lab measurements or as input data for ML of PTF predictions. DSM and ML are briefly described with some examples taken from the literature. Then, we explore the potential of an ordinal qualitative variable, i.e., the hand-feel soil texture (HFST) estimating the mineral particle distribution (PSD): % of clay (0-2µm), silt (2-50µm) and sand (50-2000µm) in 15 classes. The PSD can also be measured by lab measurements (LAST) to determine the exact proportion of these particle-sizes. However, due to cost constraints, HFST are much more numerous and spatially dense than LAST. Soil texture (ST) is a very important soil parameter to map as it is controlling many of the soil properties and functions. Therefore, comes an essential question: is it possible to use HFST as a proxy of LAST for calibration and/or validation of DSM predictions of ST? To answer this question, the first step is to compare HFST with LAST on a representative set where both information are available. This comparison was made on ca 17,400 samples representative of a French region (34,000 km2). The accuracy of HFST was assessed, and each HFST class was characterized by a probability distribution function (PDF) of its LAST values. This enables to randomly replace HFST observations by LAST values while respecting the PDF previously calculated and results in a very large increase of observations available for the calibration or validation of PTF and ML predictions. Some preliminary results are shown. First, the comparison between HFST classes and LAST analyses showed that accuracies could be considered very good when compared to other studies. The causes of some inconsistencies were explored and most of them were well explained by other soil characteristics. Then we show some examples applying these relationships and the increase of data to several issues related to DSM. The first issue is: do the PDF functions that were established enable to use HSFT class observations to improve the LAST soil texture prediction? For this objective, we replaced all HFST for topsoil by values from the PDF 100 time replicates). Results were promising for the PTF we tested (a PTF predicting soil water holding capacity). For the question related to the ML prediction of LAST soil texture on the region, we did the same kind of replacement, but we implemented a 10-fold cross-validation using points where we had LAST values. We obtained only preliminary results but they were rather promising. Then we show another example illustrating the potential of using HFST as validation data. As in numerous countries, the HFST observations are very numerous; these promising results pave the way to an important improvement of DSM products in all the countries of the world.

Keywords: digital soil mapping, improvement of digital soil mapping predictions, potential of using hand-feel soil texture, soil texture prediction

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Authors: Sarah A. Harris, Fleur L. McIntyre, Paola T. Chivers, Benjamin G. Piggott, Fiona H. Farringdon

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Australian Rules Football (ARF) is an invasion based, contact field sport with over one million participants. The contact nature of the game increases exposure to all injuries, including head trauma. Evidence suggests that both concussion and sub-concussive traumas such as head knocks may damage the brain, in particular the prefrontal cortex. The prefrontal cortex may not reach full maturity until a person is in their early twenties with males taking longer to mature than females. Repeated trauma to the pre-frontal cortex during maturation may lead to negative social, cognitive and emotional effects. It is also during this period that males exhibit high levels of risk taking behaviours. Risk propensity and the incidence of injury is an unexplored area of research. Little research has considered if the level of player’s (especially younger players) risk propensity in everyday life places them at an increased risk of injury. Hence the current study, investigated if a relationship exists between risk propensity and self-reported injuries including diagnosed concussion and head knocks, among male ARF players aged 18 to 31 years. Method: The study was conducted over 22 weeks with one West Australian Football League (WAFL) club during the 2015 competition. Pre-season risk propensity was measured using the 7-item self-report Risk Propensity Scale. Possible scores ranged from 9 to 63, with higher scores indicating higher risk propensity. Players reported their self-perceived injuries (concussion, head knocks, upper body and lower body injuries) fortnightly using the WAFL Injury Report Survey (WIRS). A unique ID code was used to ensure player anonymity, which also enabled linkage of survey responses and injury data tracking over the season. A General Linear Model (GLM) was used to analyse whether there was a relationship between risk propensity score and total number of injuries for each injury type. Results: Seventy one players (N=71) with an age range of 18.40 to 30.48 years and a mean age of 21.92 years (±2.96 years) participated in the study. Player’s mean risk propensity score was 32.73, SD ±8.38. Four hundred and ninety five (495) injuries were reported. The most frequently reported injury was head knocks representing 39.19% of total reported injuries. The GLM identified a significant relationship between risk propensity and head knocks (F=4.17, p=.046). No other injury types were significantly related to risk propensity. Discussion: A positive relationship between risk propensity and head trauma in contact sports (specifically WAFL) was discovered. Assessing player’s risk propensity therefore, may identify those more at risk of head injuries. Potentially leading to greater monitoring and education of these players throughout the season, regarding self-identification of head knocks and symptoms that may indicate trauma to the brain. This is important because many players involved in WAFL are in their late teens or early 20’s hence, may be at greater risk of negative outcomes if they experience repeated head trauma. Continued education and research into the risks associated with head injuries has the potential to improve player well-being.

Keywords: football, head injuries, injury identification, risk

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Authors: Lana Singleton

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Achieving a sufficient global solution to climate change seems elusive through disappointing climate agreements and lack of cooperation. However, is this reluctance of coordination deep rooted on a more individual, societal level within countries due to a fundamental lack of social and institutional trust? The risks of climate change are illustrious and widely accepted, yet responses on an individual level are also largely inadequate. This research looks to further investigate types of trust, risk perception of climate change, and their interaction to build a greater understanding of whether a social trap (Rothstein, 2005) – where an absence of trust can overwhelm an individuals’ risk perception and result in minimal action despite knowing the dangers of no action – exists and where it is more prevalent. Presence of the social trap will be analysed for willingness to act in favour of climate change mitigation as well as attitude (acceptance) of different types of renewable energy forms. Using probit models with cross-sectional survey data on four developed European countries (UK, France, Germany, and Norway), we find evidence of the social trap in the aggregated data model, which highlights the importance of social trust regarding willingness to act in favour of climate mitigation as there is a high probability of action regardless of risk perception of climate change when social trust is high. In contrast, the same is not true for renewables, as interactions were mainly insignificant, although there were interesting findings involving institutional trust, gender, and country specific results for particular renewables.

Keywords: climate risk, renewables, risk perception, social trap, trust, willingness to act

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Authors: O. S. Pradeep, S. Vigneshwaran, K. Praveen Kumar, K. Jeyendran, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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The influence of injector attitude on wall heat flux plays an important role in predicting the start-up transient and also determining the combustion chamber wall durability of liquid rockets. In this paper comprehensive numerical studies have been carried out on an idealized liquid rocket combustion chamber to examine the transient wall heat flux during its start-up transient at different injector attitude. Numerical simulations have been carried out with the help of a validated 2d axisymmetric, double precision, pressure-based, transient, species transport, SST k-omega model with laminar finite rate model for governing turbulent-chemistry interaction for four cases with different jet intersection angles, viz., 0^o, 30^o, 45^o, and 60^o. We concluded that the jets intersection angle is having a bearing on the time and location of the maximum wall-heat flux zone of the liquid rocket combustion chamber during the start-up transient. We also concluded that the wall heat flux mapping in liquid rocket combustion chamber during the start-up transient is a meaningful objective for the chamber wall material selection and the lucrative design optimization of the combustion chamber for improving the payload capability of the rocket.  

Keywords: combustion chamber, injector, liquid rocket, rocket engine wall heat flux

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Authors: Ankit Tyagi, Reet Kamal Tiwari, Naveen James

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In India, landslides are the most frequently occurring disaster in the regions of the Himalayas and the Western Ghats. The steep slopes and land use in these areas are quite apprehensive. In the recent past, many landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) works have been carried out in the Himalayas. However, the preparation of LHZ maps considering temporal factors such as seismic ground shaking, seismic amplification at surface level, and rainfall are limited. Hence this study presents a comprehensive use of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method in landslide risk assessment. In this research, we conducted both geospatial and geotechnical analysis to minimize the danger of landslides. Geospatial analysis is performed using high-resolution satellite data to produce landslide causative factors which were given weightage using the MCDM method. The geotechnical analysis includes a slope stability check, which was done to determine the potential landslide slope. The landslide risk map can provide useful information which helps people to understand the risk of living in an area.

Keywords: landslide hazard zonation, PHA, AHP, GIS

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Authors: B. Farahani, R. Fadil, A. Aboonabi, B. Hoffmann, J. Loscheider, K. Tavakolian, S. Arzanpour

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Wheelchair users spend long hours in a sitting position, and selecting the right cushion is highly critical in preventing pressure ulcers in that demographic. Pressure mapping systems (PMS) are typically used in clinical settings by therapists to identify the sitting profile and pressure points in the sitting area to select the cushion that fits the best for the users. A PMS is a flexible mat composed of arrays of distributed networks of flexible sensors. The output of the PMS systems is a color-coded image that shows the intensity of the pressure concentration. Therapists use the PMS images to compare different cushions fit for each user. This process is highly subjective and requires good visual memory for the best outcome. This paper aims to develop an image processing technique to analyze the images of PMS and provide an objective measure to assess the cushions based on their pressure distribution mappings. In this paper, we first reviewed the skeletal anatomy of the human sitting area and its relation to the PMS image. This knowledge is then used to identify the important features that must be considered in image processing. We then developed an algorithm based on those features to analyze the images and rank them according to their fit to the users' needs.

Keywords: dynamic cushion, image processing, pressure mapping system, wheelchair

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Authors: Ni Komang Desy Arya Pinatih

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Transnational crime is a crime with 'unique' feature because the activities benefit the lack of state monitoring on the borders so dealing with it cannot be based on conventional engagement but also need joint operation with other countries. On the other hand with the flow of globalization and the growth of information technology and transportation, states become more vulnerable to transnational crime threats especially human trafficking. This paper would examine transnational crime activities, especially human trafficking in Indonesia. With the case study on the mapping of human trafficking crime in East Java province, Indonesia, this paper would try to analyze how the difference in human trafficking crime trends at the national and sub-national levels. The findings of this research were first, there is difference in human trafficking crime trends whereas at the national level the trend is rising, while at sub-national (province) level the trend is declining. Second, regarding the decline of human trafficking number, it’s interesting to see how the method to decrease human trafficking crime in East Jawa Province in order to reduce transnational crime accounts in the region. These things are hopefully becoming a model for transnational crimes engagement in other regions to reduce human trafficking numbers as much as possible.

Keywords: transnational crime, human trafficking, southeast Asia, anticipation model on transnational crimes

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Authors: Danuvasin Charoen

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This research investigates cluster development in the area called the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), which consists of Thailand, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Yunnan Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Myanmar, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Cambodia, and Vietnam. The study utilized Porter’s competitiveness theory and the cluster mapping approach to analyze the competitiveness of the region. The data collection consists of interviews, focus groups, and the analysis of secondary data. The findings identify some evidence of cluster development in the GMS; however, there is no clear indication of collaboration among the components in the clusters. GMS clusters tend to be stand-alone. The clusters in Vietnam, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Cambodia tend to be labor intensive, whereas the clusters in Thailand and the PRC (Yunnan) have the potential to successfully develop into innovative clusters. The collaboration and integration among the clusters in the GMS area are promising, though it could take a long time. The most likely relationship between the GMS countries could be, for example, suppliers of the low-end, labor-intensive products will be located in the low income countries such as Myanmar, Lao PDR, and Cambodia, and these countries will be providing input materials for innovative clusters in the middle income countries such as Thailand and the PRC.

Keywords: cluster, GMS, competitiveness, development

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Authors: Rebecca M. Dagger, Katy Hadgraft, Matthew Teggart, Peter Angell

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Background: There is a growing body of evidence that demonstrates the association between sedentary behaviour, cardiometabolic risk and all-cause mortality. Since full time working adults spend approximately 8 hours per day in the workplace, interventions to reduce sedentary behaviour at work may alleviate some of the negative health outcomes associated with sedentary behaviour. The aims of this pilot study were to assess the impacts of using a Sit-Stand workstation on markers of cardiometabolic health in a cohort of desk workers. Methods: Twenty eight participants were recruited and randomly assigned to a control (n=5 males, 9 females, mean age 37 years ± 9.4 years) or intervention group (n= 5 males, 9 females, mean age 42 years ± 12.7 years). All participants attended the labs on 2 occasion’s pre and post intervention, following baseline measurements the intervention participants had the Sit Stand Workstations (Ergotron, USA) installed for a 10 week intervention period. The Sit Stand workstations allow participants to stand or sit at their usual workstation and participants were encouraged to the use the desk in a standing position at regular intervals throughout the working day. Cardiometabolic risk markers assessed were body mass, body composition (using bio impedance analysis; Tanita, Tokyo), fasting blood Total Cholesterol (TC), lipid profiles (HDL-C, LDL-C, TC: HDL-C ratio), triglycerides and fasting glucose (Cholestech LDX), resting systolic and diastolic blood pressure and resting heart rate. ANCOVA controlling for baseline values was used to assess the group difference in changes in risk markers between pre and post intervention. Results: The 10 week intervention was associated with significant reductions in some cardiometabolic risk factors. There were significant group effects on change in body mass (F (1,25)=5.915, p<0.05), total body fat percentage (F(1,25)=12.615, p<0.01), total fat mass (F (1,25)=6.954, p<0.05), and systolic blood pressure (F (1,25)=5.012, p<0.05). There were no other significant group effects on changes in other cardiometabolic risk markers. Conclusion: This pilot study highlights the importance of reducing sedentary behaviour in the workplace for reduction in cardiometabolic risk markers. Further research is required to support these findings.

Keywords: sedentary behaviour, caridometabolic risk, evidence, risk makers

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Authors: A. O. Ogunkeyede, D. Amuchi, A. A. Adebayo

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Heavy metal contaminations in soil have received great attention. Anthropogenic activities such as vehicular emission, industrial activities and constructions have resulted in elevated concentration of heavy metals in the surface soils. The metal particles can be free from the surface soil when they are disturbed and re-entrained in air, which necessitated the need to investigate surface soil at market environment where adults and children are present on daily basis. This study assesses concentration of heavy metal pollution, ecological and health risk factors in surface soil at Effurun market. 8 samples were collected at household material (EMH), fish (EMFs), fish and commodities (EMF-C), Abattoir (EMA 1 & 2), fruit sections (EMF 1 & 2) and lastly main road (EMMR). The samples were digested and analyzed in triplicate for contents of Lead (Pb), Nickel (Ni), Cadmium (Cd) and Copper (Cu). The mean concentration of the Pb mg/kg (112.27 ± 1.12) and Cu mg/kg (156.14 ± 1.10) were highest in the abattoir section (EMA 1). The mean concentrations of the heavy metal were then used to calculate the ecological and health risk for people within the market. Pb contamination at EMMR, EMF 2, EMFs were moderately while Pb shows considerable contamination at EMH, EMA 1, EMA 2 and EMF-C sections of the Effurun market. The ecological risk factor varies between low to moderate pollution for Pb and EMA 1 has the highest potential ecological risk that falls within moderate pollution. The hazard quotient results show that dermal exposure pathway is the possible means of heavy metal exposure to the traders while ingestion is the least sources of exposure to adult. The ingestion suggested that children around the EMA 1 have the highest possible exposure to children due to hand-to-mouth and object-to-mouth behaviour. The results further show that adults at the EMA1 will have the highest exposure to Pb due to inhalation during burning of cow with tyre that contained Pb and Cu. The carcinogenic risk values of most sections were higher than acceptable values, while Ni at EMMR, EMF 1 & 2, EMFs and EMF-C sections that were below the acceptable values. The cancer risk for inhalation exposure pathway for Pb (1.01E+17) shows a significant level of contamination than all the other sections of the market. It suggested that the people working at the Abattoir were very prone to cancer risk.

Keywords: carcinogenic, ecological, heavy metal, risk

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Authors: Rajendra Kanojia

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Femoral components with inbuilt rotation require thicker flexion resection of the lateral femoral condyle and could potential risk to damage the popliteus tendon especially in the smaller Asian knees. We prospectively evaluated 10 patients with bilateral varus osteoarthritis knee to size the cuts and their location in relation to the popliteus tendon. Two different types of implant were used on either side, one side requires resection in 3° external rotation (group A) and other side femoral component with inbuilt external roation (group B). We had popliteus tendon injury in 3 knees all from group B. Risk of damaging the popliteus tendon was found higher in group B.

Keywords: popliteaus tendon injury, TKA, orthopaedic surgery, biomechanics and clinical applications

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Authors: Christopher G. Harris, Guy D. Eslick

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Purpose: Lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) is a known risk factor for breast cancer of unclear significance when detected in association with invasive carcinoma. This meta-analysis aims to determine the impact of LCIS on local recurrence risk for individuals with breast cancer treated with breast conservation therapy to help guide appropriate treatment strategies. Methods: We identified relevant studies from five electronic databases. Studies were deemed suitable for inclusion where they compared patients with invasive breast cancer and concurrent LCIS to those with breast cancer alone, all patients underwent breast conservation therapy (lumpectomy with adjuvant radiation therapy), and local recurrence was evaluated. Recurrence data were pooled by use of a random effects model. Results: From 1488 citations screened by our search, 8 studies were deemed suitable for inclusion. These studies comprised of 908 cases and 10638 controls. Median follow-up time was 90 months. There was a significantly increased overall risk of local breast cancer recurrence for individuals with LCIS in association with breast cancer following breast conservation therapy [pOR 1.87; 95% CI 1.14-3.04; p = 0.012]. The risk of local recurrence was non-significantly increased at 5 [pOR 1.09; 95% CI 0.48-2.48; p = 0.828] and 10 years [pOR 1.90; 95% CI 0.89-4.06; p = 0.096]. Conclusions: Individuals with LCIS in association with invasive breast cancer have an increased risk of local recurrence following breast conservation therapy. This supports consideration of aggressive local control of LCIS by way of completion mastectomy or re-excision for certain high-risk patients.

Keywords: breast cancer, breast conservation therapy, lobular carcinoma in situ, lobular neoplasia, local recurrence, meta-analysis

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Authors: Herlena Hayati, Diyan Reni Jayathi, Hairida Anggun, Citra Amelia

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This systematic review research is aimed to find out anemia maternal during pregnancy as a risk factor of low birth weight. This research was done by searching some journals which have associated to maternal anemia during pregnancy with low birth weight that had been published in journal accreditation and scopus index. Study literature that researcher had been done by March – April 2016 through online library of UI. The journals that had been selected according to inclusive criteria and exclusive criteria had been through the critial appraisal process. This systematic review towards 4 journals that had been selected and published showed the significant result statistically that anemia maternal is one of the risk factors which causes low birth weight. Anemia maternal on the first-trimester pregnancy showed significant association with low birth weight. Moderate anemia and severe anemia also showed significant association with low birth weight. Meanwhile, mild anemia doesn’t have an association with low birth weight. The conclusion of this study is anemia maternal (as an independent risk factor) have an influence towards low birth weight.

Keywords: anemia maternal, low birth weight, pregnancy, systematic review

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Authors: Joseph Paul Chunga

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The investment universe is awash with a myriad of financial choices that investors have to opt for, which principally culminates into a duality between aggressive or conservative approaches. Howbeit, it is pertinent to emphasize that the investment vehicles with an aggressive approach tend to take on more risk than the latter group in an effort to generate higher future returns for their respective investors. This study examines the conditionality effect that such partiality in financing has on the High-Tech and Public Utility companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SSE). Specifically, it examines the significance of the relationship between capitalization ratios of Total Debt Ratio (TDR), Degree of Financial Leverage (DFL) and profitability ratios of Earnings per Share (EPS) and Returns on Equity (ROE) on the Financial Risk of the two industries. We employ a modified version of the Panel Regression Model used by Rahman (2017) to estimate the relationship. The study finds that there is a significant positive relationship between the capitalization ratios on the financial risk of Public Utility companies more than High-Tech companies and a substantial negative relationship between the profitability ratios and the financial risk of the former than the latter companies. This then spells an important insight for prospective investors with regards to the volatility of earnings of such companies.

Keywords: financial leverage, debt financing, conservative firms, aggressive firms

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Authors: Wan-Ling Jiang, Hsin Chi, Jia-Lu Cheng, Ming-Fang Cheng

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Background: Investigating the risk factors for the fecal carriage of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E.coli could contribute to further disease prevention. Previous research on third-generation cephalosporin-resistant prevalence in children in different regions of Taiwan is limited. This project aims to explore the risk factors and regional differences in the prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant and other antibiotic-resistant E. coli in the northern, southern, and eastern regions of Taiwan. Methods: We collected data from children aged 0 to 18 from community or outpatient clinics from July 2022 to May 2023 in southern, northern, and eastern Taiwan. The questionnaire was designed to survey the characteristics of participants and possible risk factors, such as clinical information, household environment, drinking water, and food habits. After collecting fecal samples and isolating stool culture with E.coli, antibiotic sensitivity tests and MLST typing were performed. Questionnaires were used to analyze the risk factors of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E. coli in the three different regions of Taiwan. Results: In the total 246 stool samples, third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E.coli accounted for 37.4% (97/246) of all isolates. Among the three different regions of Taiwan, the highest prevalence of fecal carriage with third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E.coli was observed in southern Taiwan (42.7%), followed by northern Taiwan (35.5%) and eastern Taiwan (28.4%). Multi-drug resistant E. coli had prevalence rates of 51.9%, 66.3%, and 37.1% in the northern, southern, and eastern regions, respectively. MLST typing revealed that ST131 was the most prevalent type (11.8%). The prevalence of ST131 in northern, southern, and eastern Taiwan was 10.1%, 12.3%, and 13.2%, respectively. Risk factors analysis identified lower paternal education, overweight status, and non-vegetarian diet as statistical significance risk factors for third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E.coli. Conclusion: The fecal carriage rates of antibiotic-resistant E. coli among Taiwanese children were on the rise. This study found regional disparities in the prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant and multi-drug-resistant E. coli, with southern Taiwan having the highest prevalence. Lower paternal education, overweight, and non-vegetarian diet were the potential risk factors of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E. coli in this study.

Keywords: Escherichia coli, fecal carriage, antimicrobial resistance, risk factors, prevalence

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Authors: C. A. Bradley, D. Patsios, D. Berridge

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This paper presents evidence to better understand the risk and protective factors related to sibling conflict and the patterns of association between sibling conflict and negative adjustment outcomes by incorporating additional familial and societal factors within statistical models of risk and adjustment. It was conducted through the secondary analysis of a large representative cross-sectional dataset of children in the UK. The original study includes proxy interviews for young children and self-report interviews for adolescents. The study applies an ecological systems framework for the analyses. Hierarchical regression models assess risk and protective factors and adjustment outcomes associated with sibling conflict. Interactions reveal differential effect between contextual risk factors and the social context of influence. The general pattern of findings suggested that, although factors affecting likelihood of experiencing sibling conflict were often determined by child age, some remained consistent across childhood. These factors were often conditional on each other, reinforcing the importance of an ecological framework. Across both age-groups, sibling conflict was associated with siblings closer in age; male sibling groups; most advantaged socio-economic group; and exposure to community violence, such as witnessing violent assault or robbery. The study develops the evidence base on the influence of ethnicity and socio-economic group on sibling conflict by exploring interactions between social context. It also identifies key new areas of influence – such as family structure, disability, and community violence in exacerbating or reducing risk of conflict. The study found negative associations between sibling conflict and young children’s mental well-being and adolescents' mental well-being and anti-social behaviour, but also more context specific associations – such as sibling conflict moderating the negative impact of adversity and high risk experiences for young children such as parental violence toward the child.

Keywords: adjustment, conflict, ecological systems, family systems, risk and protective factors, sibling

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Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Anish Maharaj, Havish Naidu, Michelle Kumar

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Mangrove patches are the foundation species located in the estuarine land areas. These patches provide a nursery, food source and protection for numerous aquatic, intertidal and well as land-based organisms. Mangroves also help in coastal protection, maintain water clarity and are one of the biggest sinks for blue carbon sequestration. In the Pacific Island countries, numerous coastal communities have a heavy socioeconomic dependence on coastal resources and mangroves play a key ecological and economical role in structuring the availability of these resources. Fiji has a large mangrove patch located in the Votua area of the Ba province. Globally, mangrove population continues to decline with the changes in climatic conditions and anthropogenic activities. Baseline information through wetland maps and time series change are essential references for development of effective mangrove management plans. These maps reveal the status of the resource and the effects arising from anthropogenic activities and climate change. In this study, we used remote sensing and GIS tools for mapping and temporal change detection over a period of >20 years in Votua, Fiji using Landsat imagery. Landsat program started in 1972 initially as Earth Resources Technology Satellite. Since then it has acquired millions of images of Earth. This archive allows mapping of temporal changes in mangrove forests. Mangrove plants consisted of the species Rhizophora stylosa, Rhizophora samoensis, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, Lumnitzera littorea, Heritiera littoralis, Excoecaria agallocha and Xylocarpus granatum. Change detection analysis revealed significant reduction in the mangrove patch over the years. This information serves as a baseline for the development and implementation of effective management plans for one of Fiji’s biggest mangrove patches.

Keywords: climate change, GIS, Landsat, mangrove, temporal change

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Authors: Roberto Rubem Silva-Brandao, Aurea Maria Zollner Ianni

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This article discusses the use and the incorporation of Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for HIV (PrEP) within a risk society context. Considering contemporary social theoreticians, we discuss implications of biotechnological uses for health enhancement. Firstly, we explore examples of biological manipulation and its consequences of use on given ecological dynamics, particularly taking into account other Sexually Transmitted Infections. In addition, we discuss how HIV resistance cases occurred with people on PrEP and its possible consequences on population-based interventions. Moreover, we present recent studies that analyze biological modifications on bodies of those who are on consistent use of PrEP, and how these body modifications are addressed on common practices of Public Health. Secondly, we present our theoretical references, which are intended to the analysis that situates our contemporary society in the reflexive stage of modernization. We discuss limits of biological use by individuals and how this can fabric feelings of freedom and autonomy within the individualization process and health. Finally, we argue that biotechnological uses on health, specifically on Public Health, tackling the risk aspects of its application, shows that another sanitary pact is needed.

Keywords: PrEP, public health, social sciences, risk society

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Authors: Yas Barzegaar, Atrin Barzegar

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The aim of this research is to develop an intelligent system to analyze the risk level of wheat flour product manufacturing system. The model consists of five Fuzzy Inference Systems in two different layers to analyse the risk of a wheat flour product manufacturing system. The first layer of the model consists of four Fuzzy Inference Systems with three criteria. The output of each one of the Physical, Chemical, Biological and Environmental Failures will be the input of the final manufacturing systems. The proposed model based on Mamdani Fuzzy Inference Systems gives a performance ranking of wheat flour products manufacturing systems. The first step is obtaining data to identify the failure modes from expert’s opinions. The second step is the fuzzification process to convert crisp input to a fuzzy set., then the IF-then fuzzy rule applied through inference engine, and in the final step, the defuzzification process is applied to convert the fuzzy output into real numbers.

Keywords: failure modes, fuzzy rules, fuzzy inference system, risk assessment

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Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

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In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis

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Authors: Tyler T. Procko, Steve Collins

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New features in .NET (6 and above) permit streamlined access to information residing in JSON-capable relational databases, such as SQL Server (2016 and above). Traditional methods of data access now comparatively involve unnecessary steps which compromise system performance. This work posits that the established ORM (Object Relational Mapping) based methods of data access in applications and APIs result in common issues, e.g., object-relational impedance mismatch. Recent developments in C# and .NET Core combined with a framework of modern SQL Server coding conventions have allowed better technical solutions to the problem. As an amelioration, this work details the language features and coding conventions which enable this streamlined approach, resulting in an open-source .NET library implementation called Codeless Data Access (CODA). Canonical approaches rely on ad-hoc mapping code to perform type conversions between the client and back-end database; with CODA, no mapping code is needed, as JSON is freely mapped to SQL and vice versa. CODA streamlines API data access by improving on three aspects of immediate concern to web developers, database engineers and cybersecurity professionals: Simplicity, Speed and Security. Simplicity is engendered by cutting out the “middleman” steps, effectively making API data access a whitebox, whereas traditional methods are blackbox. Speed is improved because of the fewer translational steps taken, and security is improved as attack surfaces are minimized. An empirical evaluation of the speed of the CODA approach in comparison to ORM approaches ] is provided and demonstrates that the CODA approach is significantly faster. CODA presents substantial benefits for API developer workflows by simplifying data access, resulting in better speed and security and allowing developers to focus on productive development rather than being mired in data access code. Future considerations include a generalization of the CODA method and extension outside of the .NET ecosystem to other programming languages.

Keywords: API data access, database, JSON, .NET core, SQL server

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Authors: Laura Fernanda Pedreros Araque, Sebastian Rivera Pardo

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The massive removal phenomena have been one of the most frequent natural disasters in the world, causing thousands of deaths, victims, damage to homes and diseases. In Pitalito, and Campoalegre department of Huila municipalities - Colombia, disasters have occurred due to various events such as high rainfall, earthquakes; it has caused landslides, floods, among others, affected the economy, the community, and transportation. For this reason, a study was carried out on the area’s most prone to suffer these phenomena to take preventive measures in favor of the protection of the population, the resources of management, and the planning of civil works. For the proposed object, the Mora-Varshon method was used, which allows classifying the degree of susceptibility to landslides in which the areas are found. Also, various factors or parameters were evaluated such as the soil moisture, lithology, slope, seismicity, and rain, each of these indicators were obtained using information from IDEAM, Servicio Geologico Colombiano (SGC) and using geographic information for geoprocessing in the Arcgis software to realize a mapping to indicate the susceptibility to landslides, classifying the areas of the municipalities such as very low, low, medium, moderate, high or very high.

Keywords: geographic information system, landslide, mass removal phenomena, Mora-Varshon method

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Authors: Iyanujesu Adereti, Tajudeen Basiru, Ayodamola Olanipekun

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Background: Substance abuse among adolescents is of public health concern globally. Despite being the most abused by adolescents, there are limited studies on the prevalence of alcohol use and cigarette smoking among adolescents in Mauritius. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of cigarette smoking, alcohol use and associated correlates among school-going adolescents in Mauritius. Methodology: Data obtained from 2017 WHO Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) survey of 3,012 school-going adolescents in Mauritius was analyzed using STATA. Descriptive statistics were used to obtain prevalence. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate predictors of cigarette smoking and alcohol use. Results: Prevalence of alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking were 26.0% and 17.1%, respectively. Smoking and alcohol use was more prevalent among males, younger adolescents, and those in higher school grades (p-value <.000). In multivariable logistic regression, male gender was associated with a higher risk of cigarette smoking (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) [95%Confidence Interval (CI)]= 1.51[1.06-2.14]) but lower risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 0.69[0.53-0.90]) while older age (mid and late adolescence) and parental smoking were found to be associated with increased risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 1.94[1.34-2.99] and 1.36[1.05-1.78] respectively). Marijuana use, truancy, being in a fight and suicide ideation were associated with increased odds of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 3.82[3.39-6.09]; 2.15[1.62-2.87]; 1.83[1.34-2.49] and 1.93[1.38-2.69] respectively) and cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 17.28[10.4 - 28.51]; 1.73[1.21-2. 49]; 1.67[1.14-2.45] and 2.17[1.43-3.28] respectively) while involvement in sexual activity was associated with reduced risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 0.50[0.37-0.68]) and cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 0.47[0.33-0.69]). Parental support and parental monitoring were uniquely associated with lower risk of cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 0.69[0.47-0.99] and 0.62[0.43-0.91] respectively). Conclusion: The high prevalence of alcohol use and cigarette smoking in this study shows the need for the government of Mauritius to enhance policies that will help address this issue putting into accounts the various risk and protective factors.

Keywords: adolescent health, alcohol use, cigarette smoking, global school-based student health survey

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Authors: Claire Xu, Welton Wang, Manasvi Pinnaka, Anqi Pan, Michael Han

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Hospitalizations account for one-third of the total health care spending in the US. Early risk detection and intervention can reduce this high cost and increase the satisfaction of both patients and physicians. Due to the lack of awareness of the potential arising risks in home environment, the opportunities for patients to seek early actions of clinical visits are dramatically reduced. This research aims to offer a highly personalized remote patients monitoring and risk assessment AI framework to identify the potentially preventable hospitalization for both acute as well as chronic diseases. A hybrid-AI framework is trained with data from clinical setting, patients surveys, as well as online databases. 20+ risk factors are analyzed ranging from activities, biometric info, demographic info, socio-economic info, hospitalization history, medication info, lifestyle info, etc. The AI model yields high performance of 87% accuracy and 88 sensitivity with 20+ features. This hybrid-AI framework is proven to be effective in identifying the potentially preventable hospitalization. Further, the high indicative features are identified by the models which guide us to a healthy lifestyle and early intervention suggestions.

Keywords: hospitalization prevention, machine learning, remote patient monitoring, risk prediction

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Authors: Ilham Aji Dermawan, M. Sapari Dwi Hadian, R. Irvan Sophian, Iyan Haryanto

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The study of the geological structure in the surrounding area of Cidaun, Cianjur Regency, West Java Province, Indonesia was conducted around the southern coast of Java Island. This study aims to determine the potentially structural trap deposits of freshwater resources in the study area, according to that the study area is an area directly adjacent to the beach, where the water around it did not seem fresh and brackish due to the exposure of sea water intrusion. This study uses the method of geomorphological analysis and geological mapping by taking the data directly in the field within 10x10 km of the research area. Geomorphological analysis was done by calculating the watershed drainage density value and roundness of watershed value ratio. The goal is to determine the permeability of the sub-soil conditions, rock constituent, and the flow of surface water. While the field geological mapping aims to take the geological structure data and then will do the reconstruction to determine the geological conditions of research area. The result, from geomorphology aspects, that the considered area of potential groundwater consisted of permeable surface material, permeable sub-soil, and low of water run-off flow. It is very good for groundwater recharge area. While the results of geological reconstruction after conducted of geological mapping is joints that present were initiated for the Cipandak Fault that cuts Cipandak River. That fault across until the Cibako Syncline fold through the Cibako River. This syncline is expected to place of influent groundwater aquifer. The tip of Cibako River then united with Cipandak River, where the Cipandak River extends through Cipandak Syncline fold axis in the southern regions close to its estuary. This syncline is expected to place of influent groundwater aquifer too.

Keywords: geological structure, groundwater, hydrogeology, influent aquifer, structural trap

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Authors: Choppala Pratheek, Vineet Ahuja

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Background: Crohn's disease (CD) recurrence following surgery is a common challenge, and current detection methods rely on risk factors identified in Western populations. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors and rates of postoperative CD recurrence in a tuberculosis-endemic region like India. Retrospective data was collected from a structured database from a specialty IBD clinic by reviewing case files from January 2005 to December 2021. Inclusion criteria involved CD patients diagnosed based on the ECCO-ESGAR consensus guidelines, who had undergone at least one intestinal resection and had a minimum follow-up period of one year at the IBD clinic. Results: A total of 90 patients were followed up for a median period of 45 months (IQR, 20.75 - 72.00). Out of the 90 patients, 61 received ATT prior to surgery, with a mean delay in diagnosis of 2.5 years, although statistically non-significant (P=0.078). Clinical recurrence occurred in 50% of patients, with the cumulative rate increasing from 13.3% at one year to 40% at three years. Among 63 patients who underwent endoscopy, 65.7% showed evidence of endoscopic recurrence, with the cumulative rate increasing from 31.7% at one year to 55.5% at four years. Smoking was identified as a significant risk factor for early endoscopic recurrence (P=0.001) by Cox regression analysis, but no other risk factors were identified. Initiating post-operative medications prior to clinical recurrence delayed its onset (P=0.004). Subgroup analysis indicated that endoscopic monitoring aided in the early identification of recurrence (P=0.001). The findings contribute to enhancing post-operative CD management strategies in such regions where the disease burden is escalating.

Keywords: crohns, post operative, tuberculosis-endemic, risk factors

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Authors: Moise A. E., State G., Tudorache M., Custură I., Enea D. N., Osman (Defta) A., Drăgotoiu D.

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This scientific paper explores risk management strategies in the food supply chain, with a focus on chicken raw materials, in the context of a company sourcing from the EU and non-EU. The aim of the paper is to adapt the requirements of international standards (IFS, BRC, QS, ITW, FSSC, ISO), proposing efficient methods to identify and remediate non-conformities and corrective and preventive actions. Defining the supply flow and acceptance steps promotes collaboration with suppliers to ensure the quality and safety of raw materials. To assess the risks of suppliers and raw materials, objective criteria are developed and vulnerabilities in the supply chain are analyzed, including the risk of fraud. Active monitoring of international alerts through RASFF helps to identify emerging risks quickly, and regular analysis of international trends and company performance enables continuous adaptation of risk management strategies. Implementing these measures strengthens food safety and consumer confidence in the final products supplied.

Keywords: food supply chain, international standards, quality and safety of raw materials, RASFF

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