Search results for: graph planning
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3860

Search results for: graph planning

3110 A Research on the Improvement of Small and Medium-Sized City in Early-Modern China (1895-1927): Taking Southern Jiangsu as an Example

Authors: Xiaoqiang Fu, Baihao Li

Abstract:

In 1895, the failure of Sino-Japanese prompted the trend of comprehensive and systematic study of western pattern in China. In urban planning and construction, urban reform movement sprang up slowly, which aimed at renovating and reconstructing the traditional cities into modern cities similar to the concessions. During the movement, Chinese traditional city initiated a process of modern urban planning for its modernization. Meanwhile, the traditional planning morphology and system started to disintegrate, on the contrary, western form and technology had become the paradigm. Therefore, the improvement of existing cities had become the prototype of urban planning of early modern China. Currently, researches of the movement mainly concentrate on large cities, concessions, railway hub cities and some special cities resembling those. However, the systematic research about the large number of traditional small and medium-sized cities is still blank, up to now. This paper takes the improvement constructions of small and medium-sized cities in Southern region of Jiangsu Province as the research object. First of all, the criteria of small and medium-sized cities are based on the administrative levels of general office and cities at the county level. Secondly, the suitability of taking the Southern Jiangsu as the research object. The southern area of Jiangsu province called Southern Jiangsu for short, was the most economically developed region in Jiangsu, and also one of the most economically developed and the highest urbanization regions in China. As the most developed agricultural areas in ancient China, Southern Jiangsu formed a large number of traditional small and medium-sized cities. In early modern times, with the help of the Shanghai economic radiation, geographical advantage and powerful economic foundation, Southern Jiangsu became an important birthplace of Chinese national industry. Furthermore, the strong business atmosphere promoted the widespread urban improvement practices, which were incomparable of other regions. Meanwhile, the demonstration of Shanghai, Zhenjiang, Suzhou and other port cities became the improvement pattern of small and medium-sized city in Southern Jiangsu. This paper analyzes the reform movement of the small and medium-sized cities in Southern Jiangsu (1895-1927), including the subjects, objects, laws, technologies and the influence factors of politic and society, etc. At last, this paper reveals the formation mechanism and characteristics of urban improvement movement in early modern China. According to the paper, the improvement of small-medium city was a kind of gestation of the local city planning culture in early modern China,with a fusion of introduction and endophytism.

Keywords: early modern China, improvement of small-medium city, southern region of Jiangsu province, urban planning history of China

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3109 Planning and Strategies for Risks Prevention, Mitigating, and Recovery of Ancient Theatres Heritage: Investigation and Recommendations

Authors: Naif A. Haddad

Abstract:

Greek, Hellenistic and Roman theatre heritage are exposed to multiple risks at varied times or simultaneously. There is no single reason why a theatre building becomes ‘at risk’, as each case has different circumstances which have led to the theatre building decay. There are complicated processes of destruction and distress that show divergence in theatre building materials' decay. Theatre modern use for cultural performances causes much of the risks concerning the physical structure and authenticity of theatre sites. In addition, there are some deterioration and deformations due to previous poor quality restorations and interventions through related excavation and conservation programmes as also risks to authenticity due to new additions. For preventive conservation, theatre natural and anthropogenic risks management can provide a framework for decision making. These risks to ancient theatre heritage may stem from exposure to one or more risk or synergy of many factors. We, therefore, need to link the theatre natural risks to the risks that come from anthropogenic factors associated with social and economic development. However, this requires a holistic approach, and systematic methodology for understanding these risks from various sources while incorporating specific actions, planning and strategies for each specific risk. Elaborating on recent relevant studies, and ERATO and ATHENA EU projects for ancient theaters and odea and general surveys, this paper attempts to discuss the main aspects of the ancient Greek, Hellenistic and Roman theatres risk related issues. Relevant case studies shall also be discussed and investigated to examine frameworks for risk mitigation, and related guidelines and recommendations that provide a systematic approach for sustainable management and planning in relation mainly to ‘compatible use’ of theatre sites.

Keywords: cultural heritage management, European ancient theatres projects, Anthropogenic risks mitigation, sustainable management and planning, preventive conservation, modern use, compatible use

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3108 Product Development in Company

Authors: Giorgi Methodishvili, Iuliia Methodishvili

Abstract:

In this paper product development algorithm is used to determine the optimal management of financial resources in company. Aspects of financial management considered include put initial investment, examine all possible ways to solve the problem and the optimal rotation length of profit. The software of given problems is based using greedy algorithm. The obtained model and program maintenance enable us to define the optimal version of management of proper financial flows by using visual diagram on each level of investment.

Keywords: management, software, optimal, greedy algorithm, graph-diagram

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3107 Education Management and Planning with Manual Based

Authors: Purna Bahadur Lamichhane

Abstract:

Education planning and management are foundational pillars for developing effective educational systems. However, in many educational contexts, especially in developing nations, technology-enabled management is still emerging. In such settings, manual-based systems, where instructions and guidelines are physically documented, remain central to educational planning and management. This paper examines the effectiveness, challenges, and potential of manual-based education planning systems in fostering structured, reliable, and adaptable management frameworks. The objective of this study is to explore how a manual-based approach can successfully guide administrators, educators, and policymakers in delivering high-quality education. By using structured, accessible instructions, this approach serves as a blueprint for educational governance, offering clear, actionable steps to achieve institutional goals. Through an analysis of case studies from various regions, the paper identifies key strategies for planning school schedules, managing resources, and monitoring academic and administrative performance without relying on automated systems. The findings underscore the significance of organized documentation, standard operating procedures, and comprehensive manuals that establish uniformity and maintain educational standards across institutions. With a manual-based approach, management can remain flexible, responsive, and user-friendly, especially in environments where internet access and digital literacy are limited. Moreover, it allows for localization, where instructions can be tailored to the unique cultural and socio-economic contexts of the community, thereby increasing relevancy and ownership among local stakeholders. This paper also highlights several challenges associated with manual-based education management. Manual systems often require significant time and human resources for maintenance and updating, potentially leading to inefficiencies and inconsistencies over time. Furthermore, manual records can be susceptible to loss, damage, and limited accessibility, which may affect decision-making and institutional memory. There is also the risk of siloed information, where crucial data resides with specific individuals rather than being accessible across the organization. However, with proper training and regular oversight, many of these limitations can be mitigated. The study further explores the potential for hybrid approaches, combining manual planning with selected digital tools for record-keeping, reporting, and analytics. This transitional strategy can enable schools and educational institutions to gradually embrace digital solutions without discarding the familiarity and reliability of manual instructions. In conclusion, this paper advocates for a balanced, context-sensitive approach to education planning and management. While digital systems hold the potential to streamline processes, manual-based systems offer resilience, inclusivity, and adaptability for institutions where technology adoption may be constrained. Ultimately, by reinforcing the importance of structured, detailed manuals and instructional guides, educational institutions can build robust management frameworks that facilitate both short-term successes and long-term growth in their educational mission. This research aims to provide a reference for policymakers, educators, and administrators seeking practical, low-cost, and adaptable solutions for sustainable educational planning and management.

Keywords: educatoin, planning, management, manual

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3106 Aspects on the Problems of Road Asset Management and Maintenance in Albania

Authors: Diana Bardhi

Abstract:

Road safety is an essential part of the economic and social development of any industrialized country. Decisions to maintain and improve the reliability, functionality of infrastructure structures can only be achieved through integrated road life cycle planning and management. There has always been a tendency to review road maintenance strategies, but there is still no serious and reliable administration due to not only insufficient funds but also problems in the proper reorganization of this system. The safety and performance of the road system depend on the ongoing activity of road maintenance management. For it to be effective, it is necessary to intervene before the degradation has caused irreparable damage or damage with a high economic cost of repairs. Investments in road infrastructure during 2006-2014 show that the life of these projects presents problems related to the maintenance and management of life cycle performance in a wide range of constituent elements. Maintenance planning includes various problems that depend on the degree of degradation of asphalt layers, the degree of damage to road structures (bridges, tunnels, culverts, and the economic planning of resources for their repair). The purpose of this study is first to provide a brief overview of the problems in the field of maintenance and life cycle management of road infrastructure investments, proposing ways to reorganize the sector of administration and maintenance of ongoing roads and secondly testing and evaluating the work and nature of standards of different types of road infrastructure projects, through a methodology consisting of a) development, b) data collection, and c) analysis.

Keywords: infrastructure, maintenance, depreciation, efficiency

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3105 Enhancing Project Success: A Case Study of Investment Strategies and Planning Practices in Rwanda’s Housing Projects Managed by Rwanda Social Security Board

Authors: Amina Umulisa

Abstract:

Background: Despite efforts to enhance profitability and project planning, Rwanda has experienced a decline in project success rates, notably in housing projects managed by the Rwanda Social Security Board (RSSB). This study aims to assess the impact of investment strategies and project planning practices on the performance of pension funds projects in Rwanda, focusing on housing projects by RSSB. Methods: Using descriptive and correlational research designs, this study surveyed 109 randomly selected respondents from a pool of 148 workers. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive and inferential statistics in STATA version 18. Results: Findings revealed that 54% of respondents acknowledged the importance of personnel generation. Additionally, 61% agreed with the effectiveness of training programs, and 79% supported the cost of human resource utilization. In terms of project management practices, 65.7% could determine when a project needed adjustments, 65.7% agreed with the approved budget, and 73% supported forecasted expenses. Furthermore, 68% agreed with order placement, 76.0% with using the right materials, and 64.4% with defining project scope. The study found significant associations between order placement and project quality outcomes (r=0.711, P-value <0.001), as well as with time management (Pearson was 0.701 and sing was 0.00) and cost management (r=0.885, P-value <0.001). Moreover, project time targets were found to significantly affect quality management (Pearson was 0.798, sing was 0.000), time management, and cost management (r=0.740, P-value <0.001). Conclusion: The findings highlight the positive association between the project implementation stage and quality management, indicating effective project planning practices among senior staff. However, there is a need to enhance project team collaboration and coordination to improve the performance of constructed houses.

Keywords: project success rates, investment strategies, training programs, cost management

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3104 Embedding the Dimensions of Sustainability into City Information Modelling

Authors: Ali M. Al-Shaery

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to address the functions of sustainability dimensions in city information modelling and to present the required sustainability criteria that support establishing a sustainable planning framework for enhancing existing cities and developing future smart cities. The paper is divided into two sections. The first section is based on the examination of a wide and extensive array of cross-disciplinary literature in the last decade and a half to conceptualize the terms ‘sustainable’ and ‘smart city,' and map their associated criteria to city information modelling. The second section is based on analyzing two approaches relating to city information modelling, namely statistical and dynamic approaches, and their suitability in the development of cities’ action plans. The paper argues that the use of statistical approaches to embedding sustainability dimensions in city information modelling have limited value. Despite the popularity of such approaches in addressing other dimensions like utility and service management in development and action plans of the world cities, these approaches are unable to address the dynamics across various city sectors with regards to economic, environmental and social criteria. The paper suggests an integrative dynamic and cross-disciplinary planning approach to embedding sustainability dimensions in city information modelling frameworks. Such an approach will pave the way towards optimal planning and implementation of priority actions of projects and investments. The approach can be used to achieve three main goals: (1) better development and action plans for world cities (2) serve the development of an integrative dynamic and cross-disciplinary framework that incorporates economic, environmental and social sustainability criteria and (3) address areas that require further attention in the development of future sustainable and smart cities. The paper presents an innovative approach for city information modelling and a well-argued, balanced hierarchy of sustainability criteria that can contribute to an area of research which is still in its infancy in terms of development and management.

Keywords: information modelling, smart city, sustainable city, sustainability dimensions, sustainability criteria, city development planning

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3103 Sociological Research as a Tool of Social Assessment of the Territory in Urban Planning: In a Case of Kazakhstan

Authors: Alexey Abilov

Abstract:

Sociological research in the form of a questionnaire survey of the population in the last decade has become an essential part of a comprehensive assessment of the territory in the practice of urban planning in Kazakhstan. This method was successfully used for developing master plans of settlements, urban agglomerations, and projects of detailed planning of individual sections of the urban environment. Also, it greatly contributes to the objectification of design solutions, since in addition to the traditional expert multifactorial assessment of urban development territories by professional designers, they provide an opportunity to consider existing urban development problems at the local level from the inside, through the eyes of the living population. A comparison of two areas of assessment of the territory -expert and social- allows us to give a more balanced final assessment, which can serve as a strong basis for making correct design decisions. The author of the article shows this by the example of the social assessment of the territory of the Almaty urban agglomeration in the form of a questionnaire survey of the population conducted in order to assess the quality of the living environment of the population, preferences in place and forms of recreation, as well as to delimitation the boundaries of the agglomeration. At the same time, the author's methodology of qualitative and quantitative assessment of the territory divided into polling stations is used, based on a comparison of the percentage of respondents' responses to various questionnaire questions with the total number of respondents.

Keywords: social assessment of territory, comprehensive assessment, urban agglomeration, correct design decisions

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3102 Extracting Spatial Information Using Stereo Imageries for Mapping Slum Areas in Karachi, Pakistan

Authors: Mohammed Raza Mehdi, Kamran Ahmed

Abstract:

Mega-city Karachi has numerous unplanned slum areas and squatter settlements with irregular growth of building structures. Due to weak development policy and lack of development control, such settlements are increasing at a rapid pace. Mapping such areas for planning and infrastructure development requires an integrated approach of socio-spatial and technological tools. Therefore in this study, an attempt is made to create GIS information layers on complex inbound built-up areas of slums at the coastal belt of Karachi by using a stereo pair of satellite images. The outcome expected is technological application to aid planning institutions for crisis management and infrastructure development in irregularly developed slum areas of Karachi, Pakistan.

Keywords: slum, satellite imageries, GIS, Karachi, Pakistan

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3101 Equity And Inclusivity In Sustainable Urban Planning: Addressing Social Disparities In Eco-City Development

Authors: Olayeye Olubunmi Shola

Abstract:

Amidst increasing global environmental concerns, sustainable urban planning has emerged as a vital strategy in counteracting the negative impacts of urbanization on the environment. However, the emphasis on sustainability often disregards crucial elements of fairness and equal participation within urban settings. This abstract presents a comprehensive overview of the challenges, objectives, significance, and methodologies for addressing social inequalities in the development of eco-cities, with a specific focus on Abuja, Nigeria. Sustainable urban planning, particularly in the context of developing eco-cities, aims to construct cities prioritizing environmental sustainability and resilience. Nonetheless, a significant gap exists in addressing the enduring social disparities within these initiatives. Equitable distribution of resources, access to services, and social inclusivity are essential components that must be integrated into urban planning frameworks for cities that are genuinely sustainable and habitable. Abuja, the capital city of Nigeria, provides a distinctive case for examining the intersection of sustainability and social justice in urban planning. Despite the urban development, Abuja grapples with challenges such as socio-economic disparities, unequal access to essential services, and inadequate housing among its residents. Recognizing and redressing these disparities within the framework of eco-city development is critical for nurturing an inclusive and sustainable urban environment. The primary aim of this study is to scrutinize and pinpoint the social discrepancies within Abuja's initiatives for eco-city development. Specific objectives include: Evaluating the current socio-economic landscape of Abuja to identify disparities in resource, service, and infrastructure access. Comprehending the existing sustainable urban planning initiatives and their influence on social fairness. Suggesting strategies and recommendations to improve fairness and inclusivity within Abuja's plans for eco-city development. This research holds substantial importance for urban planning practices and policy formulation, not only in Abuja but also on a global scale. By highlighting the crucial role of social equity and inclusivity in the development of eco-cities, this study aims to provide insights that can steer more comprehensive, people-centered urban planning practices. Addressing social disparities within sustainability initiatives is crucial for achieving genuinely sustainable and fair urban spaces. The study will employ qualitative and quantitative methodologies. Data collection will involve surveys, interviews, and observations to capture the diverse experiences and perspectives of various social groups within Abuja. Furthermore, quantitative data on infrastructure, service access, and socio-economic indicators will be collated from government reports, academic sources, and non-governmental organizations. Analytical tools such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) will be utilized to map and visualize spatial disparities in resource allocation and service access. Comparative analyses and case studies of successful interventions in other cities will be conducted to derive applicable strategies for Abuja's context. In conclusion, this study aims to contribute to the discourse on sustainable urban planning by advocating for equity and inclusivity in the development of eco-cities. By centering on Abuja as a case study, it aims to provide practical insights and solutions for the creation of more fair and sustainable urban environments.

Keywords: fairness, sustainability, geographical information system, equity

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3100 Standardizing and Achieving Protocol Objectives for ChestWall Radiotherapy Treatment Planning Process using an O-ring Linac in High-, Low- and Middle-income Countries

Authors: Milton Ixquiac, Erick Montenegro, Francisco Reynoso, Matthew Schmidt, Thomas Mazur, Tianyu Zhao, Hiram Gay, Geoffrey Hugo, Lauren Henke, Jeff Michael Michalski, Angel Velarde, Vicky de Falla, Franky Reyes, Osmar Hernandez, Edgar Aparicio Ruiz, Baozhou Sun

Abstract:

Purpose: Radiotherapy departments in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) like Guatemala have recently introduced intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). IMRT has become the standard of care in high-income countries (HIC) due to reduced toxicity and improved outcomes in some cancers. The purpose of this work is to show the agreement between the dosimetric results shown in the Dose Volume Histograms (DVH) to the objectives proposed in the adopted protocol. This is the initial experience with an O-ring Linac. Methods and Materials: An O-Linac Linac was installed at our clinic in Guatemala in 2019 and has been used to treat approximately 90 patients daily with IMRT. This Linac is a completely Image Guided Device since to deliver each radiotherapy session must take a Mega Voltage Cone Beam Computerized Tomography (MVCBCT). In each MVCBCT, the Linac deliver 9 UM, and they are taken into account while performing the planning. To start the standardization, the TG263 was employed in the nomenclature and adopted a hypofractionated protocol to treat ChestWall, including supraclavicular nodes achieving 40.05Gy in 15 fractions. The planning was developed using 4 semiarcs from 179-305 degrees. The planner must create optimization volumes for targets and Organs at Risk (OARs); the difficulty for the planner was the dose base due to the MVCBCT. To evaluate the planning modality, we used 30 chestwall cases. Results: The plans created manually achieve the protocol objectives. The protocol objectives are the same as the RTOG1005, and the DHV curves look clinically acceptable. Conclusions: Despite the O-ring Linac doesn´t have the capacity to obtain kv images, the cone beam CT was created using MV energy, the dose delivered by the daily image setup process still without affect the dosimetric quality of the plans, and the dose distribution is acceptable achieving the protocol objectives.

Keywords: hypofrationation, VMAT, chestwall, radiotherapy planning

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3099 Optimal 3D Deployment and Path Planning of Multiple Uavs for Maximum Coverage and Autonomy

Authors: Indu Chandran, Shubham Sharma, Rohan Mehta, Vipin Kizheppatt

Abstract:

Unmanned aerial vehicles are increasingly being explored as the most promising solution to disaster monitoring, assessment, and recovery. Current relief operations heavily rely on intelligent robot swarms to capture the damage caused, provide timely rescue, and create road maps for the victims. To perform these time-critical missions, efficient path planning that ensures quick coverage of the area is vital. This study aims to develop a technically balanced approach to provide maximum coverage of the affected area in a minimum time using the optimal number of UAVs. A coverage trajectory is designed through area decomposition and task assignment. To perform efficient and autonomous coverage mission, solution to a TSP-based optimization problem using meta-heuristic approaches is designed to allocate waypoints to the UAVs of different flight capacities. The study exploits multi-agent simulations like PX4-SITL and QGroundcontrol through the ROS framework and visualizes the dynamics of UAV deployment to different search paths in a 3D Gazebo environment. Through detailed theoretical analysis and simulation tests, we illustrate the optimality and efficiency of the proposed methodologies.

Keywords: area coverage, coverage path planning, heuristic algorithm, mission monitoring, optimization, task assignment, unmanned aerial vehicles

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3098 The Effect of Artificial Intelligence on Digital Factory

Authors: Sherif Fayez Lewis Ghaly

Abstract:

up to datefacupupdated planning has the mission of designing merchandise, plant life, procedures, enterprise, regions, and the development of a up to date. The requirements for up-to-date planning and the constructing of a updated have changed in recent years. everyday restructuring is turning inupupdated greater essential up-to-date hold the competitiveness of a manufacturing facilityupdated. restrictions in new regions, shorter existence cycles of product and manufacturing generation up-to-date a VUCA global (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity) up-to-date greater frequent restructuring measures inside a manufacturing facilityupdated. A virtual up-to-date model is the making plans basis for rebuilding measures and up-to-date an fundamental up-to-date. short-time period rescheduling can now not be handled through on-web site inspections and manual measurements. The tight time schedules require 3177227fc5dac36e3e5ae6cd5820dcaa making plans fashions. updated the high variation fee of facup-to-dateries defined above, a method for rescheduling facupdatedries on the idea of a modern-day digital up to datery dual is conceived and designed for sensible software in updated restructuring projects. the point of interest is on rebuild approaches. The purpose is up-to-date preserve the planning basis (virtual up-to-date model) for conversions within a up to datefacupupdated updated. This calls for the application of a methodology that reduces the deficits of present techniques. The goal is up-to-date how a digital up to datery version may be up to date up to date during ongoing up to date operation. a method up-to-date on phoup to dategrammetry technology is presented. the focus is on developing a easy and fee-powerful up to date tune the numerous adjustments that arise in a manufacturing unit constructing in the course of operation. The method is preceded with the aid of a hardware and software assessment up-to-date become aware of the most cost effective and quickest version.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital factory model, factory planning, maintenance digital factory model, photogrammetry, restructuring

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3097 Development of a Context Specific Planning Model for Achieving a Sustainable Urban City

Authors: Jothilakshmy Nagammal

Abstract:

This research paper deals with the different case studies, where the Form-Based Codes are adopted in general and the different implementation methods in particular are discussed to develop a method for formulating a new planning model. The organizing principle of the Form-Based Codes, the transect is used to zone the city into various context specific transects. An approach is adopted to develop the new planning model, city Specific Planning Model (CSPM), as a tool to achieve sustainability for any city in general. A case study comparison method in terms of the planning tools used, the code process adopted and the various control regulations implemented in thirty two different cities are done. The analysis shows that there are a variety of ways to implement form-based zoning concepts: Specific plans, a parallel or optional form-based code, transect-based code /smart code, required form-based standards or design guidelines. The case studies describe the positive and negative results from based zoning, Where it is implemented. From the different case studies on the method of the FBC, it is understood that the scale for formulating the Form-Based Code varies from parts of the city to the whole city. The regulating plan is prepared with the organizing principle as the transect in most of the cases. The various implementation methods adopted in these case studies for the formulation of Form-Based Codes are special districts like the Transit Oriented Development (TOD), traditional Neighbourhood Development (TND), specific plan and Street based. The implementation methods vary from mandatory, integrated and floating. To attain sustainability the research takes the approach of developing a regulating plan, using the transect as the organizing principle for the entire area of the city in general in formulating the Form-Based Codes for the selected Special Districts in the study area in specific, street based. Planning is most powerful when it is embedded in the broader context of systemic change and improvement. Systemic is best thought of as holistic, contextualized and stake holder-owned, While systematic can be thought of more as linear, generalisable, and typically top-down or expert driven. The systemic approach is a process that is based on the system theory and system design principles, which are too often ill understood by the general population and policy makers. The system theory embraces the importance of a global perspective, multiple components, interdependencies and interconnections in any system. In addition, the recognition that a change in one part of a system necessarily alters the rest of the system is a cornerstone of the system theory. The proposed regulating plan taking the transect as an organizing principle and Form-Based Codes to achieve sustainability of the city has to be a hybrid code, which is to be integrated within the existing system - A Systemic Approach with a Systematic Process. This approach of introducing a few form based zones into a conventional code could be effective in the phased replacement of an existing code. It could also be an effective way of responding to the near-term pressure of physical change in “sensitive” areas of the community. With this approach and method the new Context Specific Planning Model is created towards achieving sustainability is explained in detail this research paper.

Keywords: context based planning model, form based code, transect, systemic approach

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3096 Learning Traffic Anomalies from Generative Models on Real-Time Observations

Authors: Fotis I Giasemis, Alexandros Sopasakis

Abstract:

This study focuses on detecting traffic anomalies using generative models applied to real-time observations. By integrating a Graph Neural Network with an attention-based mechanism within the Spatiotemporal Generative Adversarial Network framework, we enhance the capture of both spatial and temporal dependencies in traffic data. Leveraging minute-by-minute observations from cameras distributed across Gothenburg, our approach provides a more detailed and precise anomaly detection system, effectively capturing the complex topology and dynamics of urban traffic networks.

Keywords: traffic, anomaly detection, GNN, GAN

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3095 Evolution of Cord Absorbed Dose during Larynx Cancer Radiotherapy, with 3D Treatment Planning and Tissue Equivalent Phantom

Authors: Mohammad Hassan Heidari, Amir Hossein Goodarzi, Majid Azarniush

Abstract:

Radiation doses to tissues and organs were measured using the anthropomorphic phantom as an equivalent to the human body. When high-energy X-rays are externally applied to treat laryngeal cancer, the absorbed dose at the laryngeal lumen is lower than given dose because of air space which it should pass through before reaching the lesion. Specially in case of high-energy X-rays, the loss of dose is considerable. Three-dimensional absorbed dose distributions have been computed for high-energy photon radiation therapy of laryngeal and hypo pharyngeal cancers, using a coaxial pair of opposing lateral beams in fixed positions. Treatment plans obtained under various conditions of irradiation.

Keywords: 3D treatment planning, anthropomorphic phantom, larynx cancer, radiotherapy

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3094 SIPINA Induction Graph Method for Seismic Risk Prediction

Authors: B. Selma

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of SIPINA method to predict the harmfulness parameters controlling the seismic response. The approach developed takes into consideration both the focal depth and the peak ground acceleration. The parameter to determine is displacement. The data used for the learning of this method and analysis nonlinear seismic are described and applied to a class of models damaged to some typical structures of the existing urban infrastructure of Jassy, Romania. The results obtained indicate an influence of the focal depth and the peak ground acceleration on the displacement.

Keywords: SIPINA algorithm, seism, focal depth, peak ground acceleration, displacement

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3093 MIOM: A Mixed-Initiative Operational Model for Robots in Urban Search and Rescue

Authors: Mario Gianni, Federico Nardi, Federico Ferri, Filippo Cantucci, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Karthik Pushparaj, Fiora Pirri

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe a Mixed-Initiative Operational Model (MIOM) which directly intervenes on the state of the functionalities embedded into a robot for Urban Search&Rescue (USAR) domain applications. MIOM extends the reasoning capabilities of the vehicle, i.e. mapping, path planning, visual perception and trajectory tracking, with operator knowledge. Especially in USAR scenarios, this coupled initiative has the main advantage of enhancing the overall performance of a rescue mission. In-field experiments with rescue responders have been carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of this operational model.

Keywords: mixed-initiative planning and control, operator control interfaces for rescue robotics, situation awareness, urban search, rescue robotics

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3092 Approaching the Spatial Multi-Objective Land Use Planning Problems at Mountain Areas by a Hybrid Meta-Heuristic Optimization Technique

Authors: Konstantinos Tolidis

Abstract:

The mountains are amongst the most fragile environments in the world. The world’s mountain areas cover 24% of the Earth’s land surface and are home to 12% of the global population. A further 14% of the global population is estimated to live in the vicinity of their surrounding areas. As urbanization continues to increase in the world, the mountains are also key centers for recreation and tourism; their attraction is often heightened by their remarkably high levels of biodiversity. Due to the fact that the features in mountain areas vary spatially (development degree, human geography, socio-economic reality, relations of dependency and interaction with other areas-regions), the spatial planning on these areas consists of a crucial process for preserving the natural, cultural and human environment and consists of one of the major processes of an integrated spatial policy. This research has been focused on the spatial decision problem of land use allocation optimization which is an ordinary planning problem on the mountain areas. It is a matter of fact that such decisions must be made not only on what to do, how much to do, but also on where to do, adding a whole extra class of decision variables to the problem when combined with the consideration of spatial optimization. The utility of optimization as a normative tool for spatial problem is widely recognized. However, it is very difficult for planners to quantify the weights of the objectives especially when these are related to mountain areas. Furthermore, the land use allocation optimization problems at mountain areas must be addressed not only by taking into account the general development objectives but also the spatial objectives (e.g. compactness, compatibility and accessibility, etc). Therefore, the main research’s objective was to approach the land use allocation problem by utilizing a hybrid meta-heuristic optimization technique tailored to the mountain areas’ spatial characteristics. The results indicates that the proposed methodological approach is very promising and useful for both generating land use alternatives for further consideration in land use allocation decision-making and supporting spatial management plans at mountain areas.

Keywords: multiobjective land use allocation, mountain areas, spatial planning, spatial decision making, meta-heuristic methods

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3091 An Integrated Approach to Child Care Earthquake Preparedness through “Telemachus” Project

Authors: A. Kourou, S. Kyriakopoulos, N. Anyfanti

Abstract:

A lot of children under the age of five spend their daytime hours away from their home, in a kindergarten. Caring for children is a serious subject, and their safety in case of earthquake is the first priority. Being aware of earthquakes helps to prioritize the needs and take the appropriate actions to limit the effects. Earthquakes occurring anywhere at any time require emergency planning. Earthquake planning is a cooperative effort and childcare providers have unique roles and responsibilities. Greece has high seismicity and Ionian Islands Region has the highest seismic activity of the country. The last five years Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (EPPO), which is a national organization, has analyzed the needs and requirements of kindergartens on earthquake protection issues. In this framework it has been noticed that although the State requires child care centers to hold drills, the standards for emergency preparedness in these centers are varied, and a lot of them had not written plans for emergencies. For these reasons, EPPO supports the development of emergency planning guidance and familiarizes the day care centers’ staff being prepared for earthquakes. Furthermore, the Handbook on Day Care Earthquake Planning that has been developed by EPPO helps the providers to understand that emergency planning is essential to risk reduction. Preparedness and training should be ongoing processes, thus EPPO implements every year dozens of specific seminars on children’s disaster related needs. This research presents the results of a survey that detects the level of earthquake preparedness of kindergartens in all over the country and Ionian Islands too. A closed-form questionnaire of 20 main questions was developed for the survey in order to detect the aspects of participants concerning the earthquake preparedness actions at individual, family and day care environment level. 2668 questionnaires were gathered from March 2014 to May 2019, and analyzed by EPPO’s Department of Education. Moreover, this paper presents the EPPO’s educational activities targeted to the Ionian Islands Region that implemented in the framework of “Telemachus” Project. To provide safe environment for children to learn, and staff to work is the foremost goal of any State, community and kindergarten. This project is funded under the Priority Axis "Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development" of Operational Plan "Ionian Islands 2014-2020". It is increasingly accepted that emergency preparedness should be thought of as an ongoing process rather than a one-time activity. Creating an earthquake safe daycare environment that facilitates learning is a challenging task. Training, drills, and update of emergency plan should take place throughout the year at kindergartens to identify any gaps and to ensure the emergency procedures. EPPO will continue to work closely with regional and local authorities to actively address the needs of children and kindergartens before, during and after earthquakes.

Keywords: child care centers, education on earthquake, emergency planning, kindergartens, Ionian Islands Region of Greece

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3090 Designing Floor Planning in 2D and 3D with an Efficient Topological Structure

Authors: V. Nagammai

Abstract:

Very-large-scale integration (VLSI) is the process of creating an integrated circuit (IC) by combining thousands of transistors into a single chip. Development of technology increases the complexity in IC manufacturing which may vary the power consumption, increase the size and latency period. Topology defines a number of connections between network. In this project, NoC topology is generated using atlas tool which will increase performance in turn determination of constraints are effective. The routing is performed by XY routing algorithm and wormhole flow control. In NoC topology generation, the value of power, area and latency are predetermined. In previous work, placement, routing and shortest path evaluation is performed using an algorithm called floor planning with cluster reconstruction and path allocation algorithm (FCRPA) with the account of 4 3x3 switch, 6 4x4 switch, and 2 5x5 switches. The usage of the 4x4 and 5x5 switch will increase the power consumption and area of the block. In order to avoid the problem, this paper has used one 8x8 switch and 4 3x3 switches. This paper uses IPRCA which of 3 steps they are placement, clustering, and shortest path evaluation. The placement is performed using min – cut placement and clustering are performed using an algorithm called cluster generation. The shortest path is evaluated using an algorithm called Dijkstra's algorithm. The power consumption of each block is determined. The experimental result shows that the area, power, and wire length improved simultaneously.

Keywords: application specific noc, b* tree representation, floor planning, t tree representation

Procedia PDF Downloads 392
3089 Path Planning for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Constrained Environments for Locust Elimination

Authors: Aadiv Shah, Hari Nair, Vedant Mittal, Alice Cheeran

Abstract:

Present-day agricultural practices such as blanket spraying not only lead to excessive usage of pesticides but also harm the overall crop yield. This paper introduces an algorithm to optimize the traversal of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in constrained environments. The proposed system focuses on the agricultural application of targeted spraying for locust elimination. Given a satellite image of a farm, target zones that are prone to locust swarm formation are detected through the calculation of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). This is followed by determining the optimal path for traversal of a UAV through these target zones using the proposed algorithm in order to perform pesticide spraying in the most efficient manner possible. Unlike the classic travelling salesman problem involving point-to-point optimization, the proposed algorithm determines an optimal path for multiple regions, independent of its geometry. Finally, the paper explores the idea of implementing reinforcement learning to model complex environmental behaviour and make the path planning mechanism for UAVs agnostic to external environment changes. This system not only presents a solution to the enormous losses incurred due to locust attacks but also an efficient way to automate agricultural practices across the globe in order to improve farmer ergonomics.

Keywords: locust, NDVI, optimization, path planning, reinforcement learning, UAV

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
3088 The Psychological and Social Impacts of Climate Change: A Review of the Current State in Canada

Authors: Megan E. Davies

Abstract:

The effects of climate change impact the environment and our physical health but also demonstrate a growing risk factor for Canadians’ individual and collective mental health. Past research and expert predictions are discussed while exploring the connection between mental health concerns and climate change consequences, resulting in a call to action for psychological sciences to be integrated into solution planning. With the direct and indirect effects of climate change steadily increasing, political and legal aspects of sustainability, as well as the repercussions for mental health being seen in Canada regarding climate change, are investigated. An interdisciplinary perspective for reviewing the challenges of climate change is applied in order to propose a realistic plan for how policymakers and mental health professionals can work together moving forward in applying interventions that mediate against the effects of climate change on Canadians’ mental health.

Keywords: climate change, mental health, policy change, solution planning, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
3087 Case-Based Options Counseling Panel To Supplement An Indiana Medical School’s Pre-Clinical Family Planning and Abortion Education Curriculum

Authors: Alexandra McKinzie, Lucy Brown, Sarah Komanapalli, Sarah Swiezy, Caitlin Bernard

Abstract:

Background: While 25% of US women will seek an abortion before age 45, targeted laws have led to a decline in abortion clinics, subsequently leaving 96% of Indiana counties and the 70% of Hoosier women residing in these counties without access to services they desperately need.1,2 Despite the need for a physician workforce that is educated and able to provide full-spectrum reproductive health care, few medical institutions have a standardized family planning and abortion pre-clinical curriculum. Methods: A Qualtrics survey was disseminated to students from Indiana University School of Medicine (IUSM) to evaluate (1) student interest in curriculum reform, (2) self-assessed preparedness to counsel on contraceptive and pregnancy options, and (3) preferred modality of instruction for family planning and abortion topics. Based on the pre-panel survey feedback, a case-based pregnancy options counseling panel will be implemented in the students’ pre-clinical, didactic course Endocrine, Reproductive, Musculoskeletal, Dermatologic Systems (ERMD) in February 2022. A Qualtrics post-panel survey will be disseminated to evaluate students’ perceived efficacy and quality of the panel, as well as their self-assessed preparedness to counsel on pregnancy options. Results: Participants in the pre-panel survey (n=303) were primarily female (61.72%) and White (74.43%). Across all class levels, many (60.80%) students expected to learn about family planning and abortion in their pre-clinical education. While most (84-88%) participants felt prepared to counsel about common, non-controversial pharmacotherapies (e.g. beta-blockers and diuretics), only 20% of students felt prepared to counsel on abortion options. Overall, 85.67% of students believed that IUSM should enhance its reproductive health coverage in pre-clinical, didactic courses. Traditional lectures, panels, and direct clinical exposure were the most popular instructional modalities. Expected Results: The authors predict that following the panel, students will indicate improved confidence in providing pregnancy options counseling. Additionally, students will provide constructive feedback on the structure and content of the panel for incorporation into future years’ curriculum. Conclusions: IUSM students overwhelmingly expressed interest in expanding their pre-clinical curriculum’s coverage of family planning and abortion topics. To specifically improve students’ self-assessed preparedness to provide pregnancy options counseling and address students’ self-cited learning gaps, a case-based provider panel session will be implemented in response to students’ preferred modality feedback.

Keywords: options counseling, family planning, abortion, curriculum reform, case-based panel

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3086 Participatory Planning of the III Young Sea Meeting: An Experience of the Young Albatroz Collective

Authors: Victor V. Ribeiro, Thais C. Lopes, Rafael A. A. Monteiro

Abstract:

The Albatroz, Baleia Jubarte, Coral Vivo, Golfinho Rotador and Tamar projects make up the Young Sea Network (YSN), part of the BIOMAR Network, which aims to integrate the environmental youths of the Brazilian coast. For this, three editions of the Young Sea Meeting (YSM) were performed. Seeking to stimulate belonging, self-knowledge, participation, autonomy and youth protagonism, the Albatroz Project hosted the III YSM, in Bertioga (SP), in April 2019 and aimed to collectively plan the meeting. Five pillars of Environmental Education were used: identity, community, dialogue, power to act and happiness, the OCA Method and the Young Educates Young; Young Chooses Young; and One Generation Learns from the Other principals. In December 2018, still in the II YSM, the participatory planning of the III YSM began. Two "representatives" of each group were voluntarily elected to facilitate joint decisions, propose, receive and communicate demands from their groups and coordinators. The Young Albatroz Collective (YAC) facilitated the organization process as a whole. The purpose of the meeting was collectively constructed, answering the following question: "What is the YSM for?". Only two of the five pairs of representatives responded. There was difficulty gathering the young people in each group, because it was the end of the year, with people traveling. Thus, due to the short planning time, the YAC built a pre-programming to be validated by the other groups, defining as the objective of the meeting the strengthening of youth protagonism within the YSN. In the planning process, the YAC held 20 meetings, with 60 hours of face-to-face work, in three months, and two technical visits to the headquarters of the III YSM. The participatory dynamics of consultation, when it occurred, required up to two weeks, evidencing the limits of participation. The project coordinations stated that they were not being included in the process by their young people. There is a need to work more to be able to aloud the participation, developing skills and understanding about its principles. This training must take place in an articulated way between the network, implying the important role of the five projects in jointly developing and implementing educator processes with this objective in a national dimension, but without forgetting the specificities of each young group. Finally, it is worth highlighting the great potential of the III YSM by stimulating the exercise of leading environmental youth in more than 50 young people from Brazilian coast, linked to the YSN, stimulating the learning and mobilization of young people in favor of coastal and marine conservation.

Keywords: Marine Conservation, Environmental Education, Youth, Participation, Planning

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3085 The Current Application of BIM - An Empirical Study Focusing on the BIM-Maturity Level

Authors: Matthias Stange

Abstract:

Building Information Modelling (BIM) is one of the most promising methods in the building design process and plays an important role in the digitalization of the Architectural, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) Industry. The application of BIM is seen as the key enabler for increasing productivity in the construction industry. The model-based collaboration using the BIM method is intended to significantly reduce cost increases, schedule delays, and quality problems in the planning and construction of buildings. Numerous qualitative studies based on expert interviews support this theory and report perceived benefits from the use of BIM in terms of achieving project objectives related to cost, schedule, and quality. However, there is a large research gap in analysing quantitative data collected from real construction projects regarding the actual benefits of applying BIM based on representative sample size and different application regions as well as different project typologies. In particular, the influence of the project-related BIM maturity level is completely unexplored. This research project examines primary data from 105 construction projects worldwide using quantitative research methods. Projects from the areas of residential, commercial, and industrial construction as well as infrastructure and hydraulic engineering were examined in application regions North America, Australia, Europe, Asia, MENA region, and South America. First, a descriptive data analysis of 6 independent project variables (BIM maturity level, application region, project category, project type, project size, and BIM level) were carried out using statistical methods. With the help of statisticaldata analyses, the influence of the project-related BIM maturity level on 6 dependent project variables (deviation in planning time, deviation in construction time, number of planning collisions, frequency of rework, number of RFIand number of changes) was investigated. The study revealed that most of the benefits of using BIM perceived through numerous qualitative studies have not been confirmed. The results of the examined sample show that the application of BIM did not have an improving influence on the dependent project variables, especially regarding the quality of the planning itself and the adherence to the schedule targets. The quantitative research suggests the conclusion that the BIM planning method in its current application has not (yet) become a recognizable increase in productivity within the planning and construction process. The empirical findings indicate that this is due to the overall low level of BIM maturity in the projects of the examined sample. As a quintessence, the author suggests that the further implementation of BIM should primarily focus on an application-oriented and consistent development of the project-related BIM maturity level instead of implementing BIM for its own sake. Apparently, there are still significant difficulties in the interweaving of people, processes, and technology.

Keywords: AEC-process, building information modeling, BIM maturity level, project results, productivity of the construction industry

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3084 A Lightweight Blockchain: Enhancing Internet of Things Driven Smart Buildings Scalability and Access Control Using Intelligent Direct Acyclic Graph Architecture and Smart Contracts

Authors: Syed Irfan Raza Naqvi, Zheng Jiangbin, Ahmad Moshin, Pervez Akhter

Abstract:

Currently, the IoT system depends on a centralized client-servant architecture that causes various scalability and privacy vulnerabilities. Distributed ledger technology (DLT) introduces a set of opportunities for the IoT, which leads to practical ideas for existing components at all levels of existing architectures. Blockchain Technology (BCT) appears to be one approach to solving several IoT problems, like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum, which offer multiple possibilities. Besides, IoTs are resource-constrained devices with insufficient capacity and computational overhead to process blockchain consensus mechanisms; the traditional BCT existing challenge for IoTs is poor scalability, energy efficiency, and transaction fees. IOTA is a distributed ledger based on Direct Acyclic Graph (DAG) that ensures M2M micro-transactions are free of charge. IOTA has the potential to address existing IoT-related difficulties such as infrastructure scalability, privacy and access control mechanisms. We proposed an architecture, SLDBI: A Scalable, lightweight DAG-based Blockchain Design for Intelligent IoT Systems, which adapts the DAG base Tangle and implements a lightweight message data model to address the IoT limitations. It enables the smooth integration of new IoT devices into a variety of apps. SLDBI enables comprehensive access control, energy efficiency, and scalability in IoT ecosystems by utilizing the Masked Authentication Message (MAM) protocol and the IOTA Smart Contract Protocol (ISCP). Furthermore, we suggest proof-of-work (PoW) computation on the full node in an energy-efficient way. Experiments have been carried out to show the capability of a tangle to achieve better scalability while maintaining energy efficiency. The findings show user access control management at granularity levels and ensure scale up to massive networks with thousands of IoT nodes, such as Smart Connected Buildings (SCBDs).

Keywords: blockchain, IOT, direct acyclic graphy, scalability, access control, architecture, smart contract, smart connected buildings

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3083 Role of Male Partners in Postpartum Family Planning

Authors: Stephen Rulisa, Aimee Nyiramahirwe

Abstract:

Background: Strategies to increase the uptake of contraception services have been adopted in Rwanda, but the unmet need for family planning remains high. Women in the postpartum period are at higher risk for unintended pregnancy due to the silent conversion from lactational amenorrhea to reactivation of ovulatory cycles. The purpose of this study was to explore the role of male partners in the uptake of postpartum contraception. Methods: A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted among women who delivered at the University Teaching Hospital of Kigali for a period of 3 months with random sampling. A questionnaire was used to collect socio-demographic and antenatal data, information on male companionship, and intent to use postpartum contraception at admission. Participants were contacted six weeks later to collect data on contraceptive use. The outcome variables were uptake of postpartum contraception and types of contraceptives taken (long-acting vs. short-acting), controlling for male companionship during the antenatal period. A Chi-square test was used and a p-value ≤0.05 was considered significant. Results: A total of 209 women were recruited with a mean age of 30.8±5.2 years. The majority (60.9%) were multigravida, and 66.5% were multiparous. More than half (55%) had male partner companionship, 18.3% had companionship for four antenatal visits, and 28.2% had education on contraception with their male partner. Factors significantly associated with uptake of postpartum contraception were: age above 30 years, owning or heading a business, multigravidity, multiparity, antenatal care at a health center or district hospital, cesarean delivery, and previous utilization of contraception. Male companionship significantly increased the intent to use contraception, uptake of modern contraception in general, and uptake of long active contraceptives but did not predict the uptake of short-acting contraceptives. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates a positive association between male companionship during antenatal care, labor and delivery with the uptake of postpartum family planning. Our study suggests more sensitization to involve the male partners, improving the education on contraception during antenatal care and further research to assess the sustained uptake of contraception beyond the postpartum period.

Keywords: postpartum, family planning, contraception, male partner, uptake

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3082 Collaborative Approaches in Achieving Sustainable Private-Public Transportation Services in Inner-City Areas: A Case of Durban Minibus Taxis

Authors: Lonna Mabandla, Godfrey Musvoto

Abstract:

Transportation is a catalytic feature in cities. Transport and land use activity are interdependent and have a feedback loop between how land is developed and how transportation systems are designed and used. This recursive relationship between land use and transportation is reflected in how public transportation routes internal to the inner-city enhance accessibility, therefore creating spaces that are conducive to business activity, while the business activity also informs public transportation routes. It is for this reason that the focus of this research is on public transportation within inner-city areas where the dynamic is evident. Durban is the chosen case study where the dominating form of public transportation within the central business district (CBD) is minibus taxis. The paradox here is that minibus taxis still form part of the informal economy even though they are the leading form of public transportation in South Africa. There have been many attempts to formalise this industry to follow more regulatory practices, but minibus taxis are privately owned, therefore complicating any proposed intervention. The argument of this study is that the application of collaborative planning through a sustainable partnership between the public and private sectors will improve the social and environmental sustainability of public transportation. One of the major challenges that exist within such collaborative endeavors is power dynamics. As a result, a key focus of the study is on power relations. Practically, power relations should be observed over an extended period, specifically when the different stakeholders engage with each other, to reflect valid data. However, a lengthy data collection process was not possible to observe during the data collection phase of this research. Instead, interviews were conducted focusing on existing procedural planning practices between the inner-city minibus taxi association (South and North Beach Taxi Association), the eThekwini Transport Authority (ETA), and the eThekwini Town Planning Department. Conclusions and recommendations were then generated based on these data.

Keywords: collaborative planning, sustainability, public transport, minibus taxis

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3081 A Bayesian Approach for Health Workforce Planning in Portugal

Authors: Diana F. Lopes, Jorge Simoes, José Martins, Eduardo Castro

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Health professionals are the keystone of any health system, by delivering health services to the population. Given the time and cost involved in training new health professionals, the planning process of the health workforce is particularly important as it ensures a proper balance between the supply and demand of these professionals and it plays a central role on the Health 2020 policy. In the past 40 years, the planning of the health workforce in Portugal has been conducted in a reactive way lacking a prospective vision based on an integrated, comprehensive and valid analysis. This situation may compromise not only the productivity and the overall socio-economic development but the quality of the healthcare services delivered to patients. This is even more critical given the expected shortage of the health workforce in the future. Furthermore, Portugal is facing an aging context of some professional classes (physicians and nurses). In 2015, 54% of physicians in Portugal were over 50 years old, and 30% of all members were over 60 years old. This phenomenon associated to an increasing emigration of young health professionals and a change in the citizens’ illness profiles and expectations must be considered when planning resources in healthcare. The perspective of sudden retirement of large groups of professionals in a short time is also a major problem to address. Another challenge to embrace is the health workforce imbalances, in which Portugal has one of the lowest nurse to physician ratio, 1.5, below the European Region and the OECD averages (2.2 and 2.8, respectively). Within the scope of the HEALTH 2040 project – which aims to estimate the ‘Future needs of human health resources in Portugal till 2040’ – the present study intends to get a comprehensive dynamic approach of the problem, by (i) estimating the needs of physicians and nurses in Portugal, by specialties and by quinquenium till 2040; (ii) identifying the training needs of physicians and nurses, in medium and long term, till 2040, and (iii) estimating the number of students that must be admitted into medicine and nursing training systems, each year, considering the different categories of specialties. The development of such approach is significantly more critical in the context of limited budget resources and changing health care needs. In this context, this study presents the drivers of the healthcare needs’ evolution (such as the demographic and technological evolution, the future expectations of the users of the health systems) and it proposes a Bayesian methodology, combining the best available data with experts opinion, to model such evolution. Preliminary results considering different plausible scenarios are presented. The proposed methodology will be integrated in a user-friendly decision support system so it can be used by politicians, with the potential to measure the impact of health policies, both at the regional and the national level.

Keywords: bayesian estimation, health economics, health workforce planning, human health resources planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 251