Search results for: meta-simulation based

Authors: Meshandren Naidoo

Abstract:

Personhood is an important philosophical and ethical device that belies many major ethical and legal issues. The concept of African personhood is often overlooked, however, given the decolonization projects occurring in Africa, it is important to consider this view. African personhood, as opposed to Western personhood, is not individualistic in nature. The latter is predominantly Kantian and based on the notion that all persons have equal moral due to their capacity for a reason, whereas communitarianism is central to an African conception of personhood.

Keywords: African philosophy, bioethics, ethics, personhood

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Louise Moles, Steve Riley, Sarah D. Lichenstein, Marzieh Babaeianjelodar, Robert Kohler, Annie Cheng, Corey Horien Abigail Greene, Wenjing Luo, Jonathan Ahern, Bohan Xu, Yize Zhao, Chun Chieh Fan, R. Todd Constable, Sarah W. Yip

Abstract:

Background: Risks for depression are myriad and include both genetic and brain-based factors. However, relationships between these systems are poorly understood, limiting understanding of disease etiology, particularly at the developmental level. Methods: We use a data-driven machine learning approach connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM) to identify functional connectivity signatures associated with polygenic risk scores for depression (DEP-PRS) among youth from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development (ABCD) study across diverse brain states, i.e., during resting state, during affective working memory, during response inhibition, during reward processing. Results: Using 10-fold cross-validation with 100 iterations and permutation testing, CPM identified connectivity signatures of DEP-PRS across all examined brain states (rho’s=0.20-0.27, p’s<.001). Across brain states, DEP-PRS was positively predicted by increased connectivity between frontoparietal and salience networks, increased motor-sensory network connectivity, decreased salience to subcortical connectivity, and decreased subcortical to motor-sensory connectivity. Subsampling analyses demonstrated that model accuracies were robust across random subsamples of N’s=1,000, N’s=500, and N’s=250 but became unstable at N’s=100. Conclusions: These data, for the first time, identify neural networks of polygenic depression risk in a large sample of youth before the onset of significant clinical impairment. Identified networks may be considered potential treatment targets or vulnerability markers for depression risk.

Keywords: genetics, functional connectivity, pre-adolescents, depression

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Jang-Hwan Jo

Abstract:

Implementing sustainable island forest management policies requires categorizing islands into groups based on key indicators and establishing a consistent management system. Building on the results of previous studies, a typology of forested islands was established: Type 1 – connected islands with high natural vegetation cover; Type 2 – connected islands with moderate natural vegetation cover; Type 3 – connected islands with low natural vegetation cover; Type 4 – unconnected islands with high natural vegetation cover; Type 5 – unconnected islands with moderate natural vegetation cover; and Type 6 – unconnected islands with low natural vegetation cover. An AHP analysis was conducted with island forest experts to identify priority ecosystem services (ESs) for the sustainable management of each island type. In connected islands, provisioning services (natural resources, natural medicines, etc.) assumed greater importance than regulating (erosion control) and supporting services (genetic diversity). In unconnected islands, particularly those with a small proportion of natural vegetation, regulating services (erosion control) requires greater emphasis in management. Considering that Type 3 islands require urgent management as connectivity to the mainland makes natural vegetation-sparse island forest ecosystems vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, the land-use scoring method was carried out on Jin-do, a Type 3 forested island. Comparisons between AHP-derived expert demand for key island ESs and the spatial distribution of ES supply potential revealed mismatches between the supply and demand of erosion control, freshwater supply, and habitat provision. The framework developed in this study can help guide decisions and indicate where interventions should be focused to achieve sustainable island management.

Keywords: ecosystem service, sustainable management, forested islands, Analytic hierarchy process

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: V. Ivanov, J. Chu, V. Stabnikov

Abstract:

Different biotechnological methods for the production of construction materials and for the performance of construction processes in situ are developing within a new scientific discipline of Construction Biotechnology. The aim of this research was to develop and test new biotechnologies and biotechnological grouts for the minimization of the hydraulic conductivity of the fractured rocks and porous soil. This problem is essential to minimize flow rate of groundwater into the construction sites, the tunneling space before and after excavation, inside levies, as well as to stop water seepage from the aquaculture ponds, agricultural channels, radioactive waste or toxic chemicals storage sites, from the landfills or from the soil-polluted sites. The conventional fine or ultrafine cement grouts or chemical grouts have such restrictions as high cost, viscosity, sometime toxicity but the biogrouts, which are based on microbial or enzymatic activities and some not expensive inorganic reagents, could be more suitable in many cases because of lower cost and low or zero toxicity. Due to these advantages, development of biotechnologies for biogrouting is going exponentially. However, most popular at present biogrout, which is based on activity of urease- producing bacteria initiating crystallization of calcium carbonate from calcium salt has such disadvantages as production of toxic ammonium/ammonia and development of high pH. Therefore, the aim of our studies was development and testing of new biogrouts that are environmentally friendly and have low cost suitable for large scale geotechnical, construction, and environmental applications. New microbial biotechnologies have been studied and tested in the sand columns, fissured rock samples, in 1 m3 tank with sand, and in the pack of stone sheets that were the models of the porous soil and fractured rocks. Several biotechnological methods showed positive results: 1) biogrouting using sequential desaturation of sand by injection of denitrifying bacteria and medium following with biocementation using urease-producing bacteria, urea and calcium salt decreased hydraulic conductivity of sand to 2×10-7 ms-1 after 17 days of treatment and consumed almost three times less reagents than conventional calcium-and urea-based biogrouting; 2) biogrouting using slime-producing bacteria decreased hydraulic conductivity of sand to 1x10-6 ms-1 after 15 days of treatment; 3) biogrouting of the rocks with the width of the fissures 65×10-6 m using calcium bicarbonate solution, that was produced from CaCO3 and CO2 under 30 bars pressure, decreased hydraulic conductivity of the fissured rocks to 2×10-7 ms-1 after 5 days of treatment. These bioclogging technologies could have a lot of advantages over conventional construction materials and processes and can be used in geotechnical engineering, agriculture and aquaculture, and for the environmental protection.

Keywords: biocementation, bioclogging, biogrouting, fractured rocks, porous soil, tunneling space

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: H. Naseh, M. Mirshams, M. Mirdamadian, H. R. Fazeley

Abstract:

This paper presents an extension of fuzzy-genetic algorithm multi-objective optimization methodology that could effectively be used to find the overall satisfaction of objective functions (selecting the design variables) in the early stages of design process. The coupling of objective functions due to design variables in an engineering design process will result in difficulties in design optimization problems. In many cases, decision making on design variables conflicts with more than one discipline in system design. In space launch system conceptual design, decision making on some design variable (e.g. oxidizer to fuel mass flow rate O/F) in early stages of the design process is related to objective of liquid propellant engine (specific impulse) and Tanks (structure weight). Then, the primary application of this methodology is the design of a liquid propellant engine with the maximum specific impulse and cylindrical stiffened tank with the minimum weight. To this end, the design problem is established the fuzzy rule set based on designer's expert knowledge with a holistic approach. The independent design variables in this model are oxidizer to fuel mass flow rate, thickness of stringers, thickness of rings, shell thickness. To handle the mentioned problems, a fuzzy-genetic algorithm multi-objective optimization methodology is developed based on Pareto optimal set. Consequently, this methodology is modeled with the one stage of space launch system to illustrate accuracy and efficiency of proposed methodology.

Keywords: cylindrical stiffened tanks, multi-objective, genetic algorithm, fuzzy approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 632

Authors: Yousef Daneshvar Rouyandozagh, Ece. K. Açikgöz

Abstract:

Conservation of historical urban patterns in the traditional neighborhoods is a part of creating integrated urban environments that are socially more sustainable. Urbanization reflects on life conditions and social, physical, economical characteristics of the society. In this regard, historical zones and traditional regions are affected by dramatic interventions on these characteristics. This article focuses on the Uch Dukkan neighborhood located in Ardabil City in Azarbaijani region of Iran, which has been up to such interventions that leaded its transformation from the past to the present. After introducing a brief inventory of the main elements of the historical zone and the neighborhood; this study explores the changes and transformations in different periods; and their impacts on the quality of the environment and its social sustainability. The survey conducted in the neighborhood as part of this research study revealed that the Uch Dukkan neighborhood and the unique architectural heritage that it possesses have become more inactive physically and functionally in a decade. This condition requires an exploration and comparison of the present and the expected transformations of the meaning of social space from the most private unit to the urban scale. From this token, it is argued that an architectural point of view that is based on space order; use and meaning of space as a social and cultural image, should not be ignored. Based on the interplay between social sustainability, collective memory, and the urban environment, study aims to make the invisible portion of ignorance clear, that ends up with a weakness in defining the collective meaning of the neighborhood as a historic urban district. It reveals that the spatial possessions of the neighborhood are valuable not only for their historical and physical characteristics, but also for their social memory that is to be remembered and constructed further.

Keywords: urban integrity, social sustainability, collective memory, social decay

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Muttamas Wongwanich, John R. Bryson, Catherine E. Harris

Abstract:

Science parks are an essential component of localized innovation ecosystems. Science Parks have played a critical role in enhancing local innovation ecosystems in developed market economies. Attempts have been made to replicate best practice in other national contexts. To our best knowledge, the study about the development of Science Parks has not been undertaken on the economic impact on the developing countries. Further research is required to understand the adoption of Science Park policies in developing and emerging economies. This study explores the implementation of Science Park policy and its impacts on economic growth and development in Thailand, focusing on the relationship between universities and businesses. The Thailand context is essential. Thailand’s economy is dominated by agriculture and tourism. The Science Park policy is trying to develop an agriculturally orientated innovative ecosystem. Thailand established four Science Parks based on a policy that highlighted the importance of cooperation between government, HEIs, and businesses. These Science Parks are intended to increase small and medium enterprises’ (SMEs) innovativeness, employment, and regional economic growth by promoting collaboration and knowledge transfer between HEIs and the private sector. This study explores one regional Science Park in Thailand with an emphasis on understanding the implementation and operation of a triple helix innovation policy. The analysis explores the establishment of the Science Park and its impacts on firms and the regional economy through interviews with Science Parks directors, firms, academics, universities, and government officials. The analysis will inform Science Park policy development in Thailand to support the national objective to develop an innovation ecosystem based on the integration of technology with innovation policy, supporting technology-based SMEs in the creation of local jobs. The finding shows that the implementation of the Science Park policy in Thailand requires support and promotion from the government. The regional development plan must be related to the regional industry development strategy, considering the strengths and weaknesses of local entrepreneurs. The long time in granting a patent is the major obstacle in achieving the government’s aim in encouraging local economic activity. The regional Science Parks in Thailand are at the early stage of the operation plan. Thus, the impact on the regional economy cannot be measured and need further investigation in a more extended period. However, local businesses realize the vital of research and development (R&D). There have been more requests for funding support in doing R&D. Furthermore, there is the creation of linkages between businesses, HEIs, and government authorities as expected.

Keywords: developing country, emerging economy, regional development, science park, Thailand, triple helix

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Mohammad Yousaf Safi Mohibullah Afghan

Abstract:

The study made on Islamic and conventional banks scrutinizes the risks interconnected with credit and liquidity on the productivity performance of Islamic and conventional banks that operate in Pakistan. Among the banks, only 4 Islamic and 18 conventional banks have been selected to enrich the result of our study on Islamic banks performance in connection to conventional banks. The selection of the banks to the panel is based on collecting quarterly unbalanced data ranges from the first quarter of 2007 to the last quarter of 2017. The data are collected from the Bank’s web sites and State Bank of Pakistan. The data collection is carried out based on Delta-method test. The mentioned test is used to find out the empirical results. In the study, while collecting data on the banks, the return on assets and return on equity have been major factors that are used assignificant proxies in determining the profitability of the banks. Moreover, another major proxy is used in measuring credit and liquidity risks, the loan loss provision to total loan and the ratio of liquid assets to total liability. Meanwhile, with consideration to the previous literature, some other variables such as bank size, bank capital, bank branches, and bank employees have been used to tentatively control the impact of those factors whose direct and indirect effects on profitability is understood. In conclusion, the study emphasizes that credit risk affects return on asset and return on equity positively, and there is no significant difference in term of credit risk between Islamic and conventional banks. Similarly, the liquidity risk has a significant impact on the bank’s profitability, though the marginal effect of liquidity risk is higher for Islamic banks than conventional banks.

Keywords: islamic & conventional banks, performance return on equity, return on assets, pakistan banking sectors, profitibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Catarina Cruz, Ana Breda

Abstract:

Tiling problems have been capturing the attention of many mathematicians due to their real-life applications. In this study, we deal with tilings of Zⁿ by Lee spheres, where n is a positive integer number, being these tilings related with error correcting codes on the transmission of information over a noisy channel. We focus our attention on the question ‘for what values of n and r does the n-dimensional Lee sphere of radius r tile Zⁿ?’. It seems that the n-dimensional Lee sphere of radius r does not tile Zⁿ for n ≥ 3 and r ≥ 2. Here, we prove that is not possible to tile Z⁷ with Lee spheres of radius 2 presenting a proof based on a combinatorial method and faithful to the geometric idea of the problem. The non-existence of such tilings has been studied by several authors being considered the most difficult cases those in which the radius of the Lee spheres is equal to 2. The relation between these tilings and error correcting codes is established considering the center of a Lee sphere as a codeword and the other elements of the sphere as words which are decoded by the central codeword. When the Lee spheres of radius r centered at elements of a set M ⊂ Zⁿ tile Zⁿ, M is a perfect r-error correcting Lee code of word length n over Z, denoted by PL(n, r). Our strategy to prove the non-existence of PL(7, 2) codes are based on the assumption of the existence of such code M. Without loss of generality, we suppose that O ∈ M, where O = (0, ..., 0). In this sense and taking into account that we are dealing with Lee spheres of radius 2, O covers all words which are distant two or fewer units from it. By the definition of PL(7, 2) code, each word which is distant three units from O must be covered by a unique codeword of M. These words have to be covered by codewords which dist five units from O. We prove the non-existence of PL(7, 2) codes showing that it is not possible to cover all the referred words without superposition of Lee spheres whose centers are distant five units from O, contradicting the definition of PL(7, 2) code. We achieve this contradiction by combining the cardinality of particular subsets of codewords which are distant five units from O. There exists an extensive literature on codes in the Lee metric. Here, we present a new approach to prove the non-existence of PL(7, 2) codes.

Keywords: Golomb-Welch conjecture, Lee metric, perfect Lee codes, tilings

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Peaceman Sopazi, Mabila Mathebula, John Smallwood

Abstract:

Recent health and safety (H&S) concerns and their resultant impact on railway operations, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) or collectively known as SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic and the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), which have dominated public discourse, brought into question as to whether, or not, some aspects of how we have so far managed safety oversight as railway regulatory bodies and operators will remain relevant in a changing railway environment. Railway practitioners have generally found themselves between a proverbial rock and a hard place by being confronted by emerging challenges which have brought along great opportunities for sustainability. As witnesses and participants to the progressively introduced railway safety management, and transformation regimes, this paper attempts to share gathered field experience on adaptable regulatory oversight and safety awareness. The discourse is approached from a South African context but also with an informed perspective of what seems to work and what usually does not. The authors share their own multi and transdisciplinary experience coupled with insights they have gained as researchers of global trends in general safety management and specific aspects of railway safety management, for sustainability. In addition to sharing a largely experience-based methodology for survival, suggestions are offered for consideration as a way of keeping the railway safety management discourse alive as practitioners navigate a new path which is shrouded in a cloud of untold uncertainty. The authors further believe that the right timing for the implementation of the proposed suggestions in this paper will produce beneficial outcomes. Finally, the paper will identify areas that are still open for further investigation for and by researchers and practitioners alike.

Keywords: health & safety management, safety awareness, railway safety management, railway systems sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Mushty Srividya

Abstract:

Humans that inhabit a designed space consciously or unconsciously accept the spaces which have an impact on how they perceive, feel and act accordingly. Spaces that are more interactive and communicative with the human senses become more interesting. Interaction in architecture is the art of building relationships between the user and the spaces. Often spaces are form-based, function-based or aesthetically pleasing spaces but they are not interactive with the user which actually has a greater impact on how the user perceives the designed space and appreciate it. It is very necessary for a designer to understand and appreciate the human character and design accordingly, wherein the user gets the flexibility to explore and experience it for themselves rather than the designed space dictating the user how to perceive or feel in that space. In this interaction between designed spaces and the user, a designer needs to understand the spatial potential and user’s needs because the design language varies with varied situations in accordance with these factors. Designers often have the tendency to construct spaces with their perspectives, observations, and sense the space in their range of different angles rather than the users. It is, therefore, necessary to understand the potential of the space by understanding different factors and improve the quality of space with the help of creating better interactive spaces. For an interaction to occur between the user and space, there is a need for some medium. In this paper, light, color, and sound will be used as the mediums to understand and create interactions between the user and space, considering these to be the primary sources which would not require any physical touch in the space and would help in triggering the human senses. This paper involves in studying and understanding the impact of light, color and sound on different typologies of spaces on the user through different findings, articles, case studies and surveys and try to get links between these three mediums to create an interaction. This paper also deals with understanding in which medium takes an upper hand in a varied typology of spaces and identify different techniques which would create interactions between the user and space with the help of light, color, and sound.

Keywords: color, communicative spaces, human factors, interactive spaces, light, sound

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Xiaoxian Zhang

Abstract:

Guidelines of ecological risk assessment (ERA) and food safety assessment (FSA) used nowadays, based on an S-shaped threshold dose-response curve (SDR), fail to consider hormesis, a reproducible biphasic dose-response model represented as a J-shaped or an inverted U-shaped curve, that occurs in the real-life environment across multitudinous compounds on cells, organisms, populations, and even the ecosystem. Specifically, in SDR-based ERA and FSA practice, predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) is calculated separately for individual substances from no observed effect concentration (NOEC, usually equivalent to 10% effect concentration (EC10) of a contaminant or food condiment) over an assessment coefficient that is bigger than 1. Experienced researchers doubted that hormesis in the real-life environment might lead to a waste of limited human and material resources in ERA and FSA practice, but related data are scarce. In this study, hormetic effects on bioluminescence of Aliivibrio fischeri (A. f) induced by sulfachloropyridazine (SCP) under 40 conditions to simulate the real-life scenario were investigated, and hormetic effects on growth of human MCF-7 cells caused by brown sugar and mascavado sugar were found likewise. After comparison of related parameters, it has for the first time been proved that there is a 50% probability for safe concentration (SC) of contaminants and food condiments to fall within the hormetic-stimulatory range (HSR) or left to HSR, revealing the unreliability of traditional parameters in standardized (eco)toxicological studies, and supporting qualitatively and quantitatively the over-strictness of ERA and FSA resulted from misuse of SDR. This study provides a novel perspective for ERA and FSA practitioners that hormesis should dominate and conditions where SDR works should only be singled out on a specific basis.

Keywords: dose-response relationship, food safety, ecological risk assessment, hormesis

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Xuelian Qin

Abstract:

Urban "organic renewal" based on the development of existing resources in high-density urban areas has become the mainstream of urban development in the new era. As an important stock resource of public space in high-density urban areas, promoting its value remodeling is an effective way to alleviate the shortage of public space resources. However, due to the lack of evaluation links in the process of underpass space renewal, a large number of underpass space resources have been left idle, facing the problems of low space conversion efficiency, lack of accuracy in development decision-making, and low adaptability of functional positioning to citizens' needs. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to construct the evaluation system of under-bridge space renewal potential and explore the renewal mode. In this paper, some of the under-bridge spaces in the main urban area of Chongqing are selected as the research object. Through the questionnaire interviews with the users of the built excellent space under the bridge, three types of six levels and twenty-two potential evaluation indexes of "objective demand factor, construction feasibility factor and construction suitability factor" are selected, including six levels of land resources, infrastructure, accessibility, safety, space quality and ecological environment. The analytical hierarchy process and expert scoring method are used to determine the index weight, construct the potential evaluation system of the space under the bridge in high-density urban areas of Chongqing, and explore the direction of renewal and utilization of its suitability. To provide feasible theoretical basis and scientific decision support for the use of under bridge space in the future.

Keywords: high density urban area, potential evaluation, space under bridge, updated using

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: A. Ghanbari Mardasi, N. Wu, C. Wu

Abstract:

In this study, a spatial wavelet-based crack localization technique for a thick beam is presented. Wavelet scale in spatial wavelet transformation is optimized to enhance crack detection sensitivity. A windowing function is also employed to erase the edge effect of the wavelet transformation, which enables the method to detect and localize cracks near the beam/measurement boundaries. Theoretical model and vibration analysis considering the crack effect are first proposed and performed in MATLAB based on the Timoshenko beam model. Gabor wavelet family is applied to the beam vibration mode shapes derived from the theoretical beam model to magnify the crack effect so as to locate the crack. Relative wavelet coefficient is obtained for sensitivity analysis by comparing the coefficient values at different positions of the beam with the lowest value in the intact area of the beam. Afterward, the optimal wavelet scale corresponding to the highest relative wavelet coefficient at the crack position is obtained for each vibration mode, through numerical simulations. The same procedure is performed for cracks with different sizes and positions in order to find the optimal scale range for the Gabor wavelet family. Finally, Hanning window is applied to different vibration mode shapes in order to overcome the edge effect problem of wavelet transformation and its effect on the localization of crack close to the measurement boundaries. Comparison of the wavelet coefficients distribution of windowed and initial mode shapes demonstrates that window function eases the identification of the cracks close to the boundaries.

Keywords: edge effect, scale optimization, small crack locating, spatial wavelet

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Silke Bustamante, Andrea Pelzeter, Andreas Deckmann, Rudi Ehlscheidt, Franziska Freudenberger

Abstract:

Against the background of demographic changes and the need for motivated and talented employees, companies have a growing interest in being perceived as an attractive employer and gain a competitive edge in the market for talents. Research indicates that corporate social responsibility plays an important role employer choice. This is assumed to be particularly true for the cohorts of the so-called generations y younger applicants born later. Several studies identified cultural, educational and generational differences in CSR preferences. However, until now literature that links preferences for employers’ responsibility with the individual value orientation of the job applicant is scarce. This paper seeks to close this gap and analyzes the preference structure of 500 German university graduates for CSR-related and non-CSR-related employer attributes contingent on their value orientation. In a first step, we identified 17 CSR related attributes in five CSR dimensions (ecology, community, workplace, governance, and market) as well as 11 traditional attributes such as salary, reputation, personal development etc. based on literature review and focus groups. We then used an adapted Conjoint Analysis framework in order to understand the relative preference of each attribute for each participant. Additionally, we surveyed the value orientation of participants based on the European Social Survey (ESS) 21-item human values scale that allow a differentiation of participants into clusters of value orientation. The results allow us not only to operationalize preferences for CSR and other important employer attributes, but – more importantly – to answer the question how different values structures play together with CSR preferences of potential employees. They hereby allow companies to customize employee directed messages to their respective target group and design their employer brand accordingly.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, employer attractiveness, employer brand, recruiting, values

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Seyed Ali Mahdipour, Maryam Shafeei Sarvestani

Abstract:

Radiation pressure acceleration (RPA) and target normal sheath acceleration (TNSA) are the most important methods of Laser-accelerated proton beams (LAP) planning systems.LAP has inspired novel applications that can benefit from proton bunch properties different from conventionally accelerated proton beams. The secondary neutron and photon produced in the collision of protons with beamline components are of the important concern in proton therapy. Various published Monte Carlo researches evaluated the beamline and shielding considerations for TNSA method, but there is no studies directly address secondary neutron and photon production from RPA method in LAP. The purpose of this study is to calculate the flux distribution of neutron and photon secondary radiations on the first area ofLAP and to determine the optimize thickness and radius of the energyselector in a LAP planning system based on RPA method. Also, we present the Monte Carlo calculations to determine the appropriate beam pipe for shielding a LAP planning system. The GEANT4 Monte Carlo toolkit has been used to simulate a secondary radiation production in LAP. A section of new multifunctional LAP beamlinehas been proposed, based on the pulsed power solenoid scheme as a GEANT4 toolkit. The results show that the energy selector is the most important source of neutron and photon secondary particles in LAP beamline. According to the calculations, the pure Tungsten energy selector not be the proper case, and using of Tungsten+Polyethylene or Tungsten+Graphitecomposite selectors will reduce the production of neutron and photon intensities by approximately ~10% and ~25%, respectively. Also the optimal radiuses of energy selectors were found to be ~4 cm and ~6 cm for a 3 degree and 5 degree proton deviation angles, respectively.

Keywords: neutron, photon, flux distribution, energy selector, GEANT4 toolkit

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Henning Lahmann, Benjamyn I. Scott, Bart Custers

Abstract:

Suboptimal adoption of AI in defence organisations carries risks for the protection of the freedom, safety, and security of society. Despite the vast opportunities that defence AI-technology presents, there are also a variety of ethical, legal, and societal concerns. To ensure the successful use of AI technology by the military, ethical, legal, and societal aspects (ELSA) need to be considered, and their concerns continuously addressed at all levels. This includes ELSA considerations during the design, manufacturing and maintenance of AI-based systems, as well as its utilisation via appropriate military doctrine and training. This raises the question how defence organisations can remain strategically competitive and at the edge of military innovation, while respecting the values of its citizens. This paper will explain the set-up and share preliminary results of a 4-year research project commissioned by the National Research Council in the Netherlands on the ethical, legal, and societal aspects of AI in defence. The project plans to develop a future-proof, independent, and consultative ecosystem for the responsible use of AI in the defence domain. In order to achieve this, the lab shall devise a context-dependent methodology that focuses on the ‘analysis’, ‘design’ and ‘evaluation’ of ELSA of AI-based applications within the military context, which include inter alia unmanned aircraft. This is bolstered as the Lab also recognises and complements the existing methods in regards to human-machine teaming, explainable algorithms, and value-sensitive design. Such methods will be modified for the military context and applied to pertinent case-studies. These case-studies include, among others, the application of autonomous robots (incl. semi- autonomous) and AI-based methods against cognitive warfare. As the perception of the application of AI in the military context, by both society and defence personnel, is important, the Lab will study how these perceptions evolve and vary in different contexts. Furthermore, the Lab will monitor – as they may influence people’s perception – developments in the global technological, military and societal spheres. Although the emphasis of the research project is on different forms of AI in defence, it focuses on several case studies. One of these case studies is on unmanned aircraft, which will also be the focus of the paper. Hence, ethical, legal, and societal aspects of unmanned aircraft in the defence domain will be discussed in detail, including but not limited to privacy issues. Typical other issues concern security (for people, objects, data or other aircraft), privacy (sensitive data, hindrance, annoyance, data collection, function creep), chilling effects, PlayStation mentality, and PTSD.

Keywords: autonomous weapon systems, unmanned aircraft, human-machine teaming, meaningful human control, value-sensitive design

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Pakawhat Khumkhreung, Yottana Khunatorn

Abstract:

The flow pattern inside rectangular intake air duct of 300 MW lignite coal-fired power plant is investigated in order to analyze and reduce overall inlet system pressure drop. The system consists of the 45-degree inlet elbow, the flow instrument, the 90-degree mitered elbow and fans, respectively. The energy loss in each section can be determined by Bernoulli’s equation and ASHRAE standard table. Hence, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used in this study based on Navier-Stroke equation and the standard k-epsilon turbulence modeling. Input boundary condition is 175 kg/s mass flow rate inside the 11-m² cross sectional duct. According to the inlet air flow rate, the Reynolds number of airstream is 2.7x10⁶ (based on the hydraulic duct diameter), thus the flow behavior is turbulence. The numerical results are validated with the real operation data. It is found that the numerical result agrees well with the operating data, and dominant loss occurs at the flow rate measurement device. Normally, the air flow rate is measured by the airfoil and it gets high pressure drop inside the duct. To overcome this problem, the airfoil is planned to be replaced with the other type measuring instrument, such as the average pitot tube which generates low pressure drop of airstream. The numerical result in case of average pitot tube shows that the pressure drop inside the inlet airstream duct is decreased significantly. It should be noted that the energy consumption of inlet air system is reduced too.

Keywords: airfoil, average pitot tube, combustion air, CFD, pressure drop, rectangular duct

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Radka Obořilová, Hana Šimečková, Matěj Pastucha, Jan Přibyl, Petr Skládal, Ivana Mašlaňová, Zdeněk Farka

Abstract:

Due to the spreading of antimicrobial resistance, alternative approaches to combat superinfections are being sought, both in the field of lysing agents and methods for studying bacterial lysis. A suitable alternative to antibiotics is phage therapy and enzybiotics, for which it is also necessary to study the mechanism of their action. Biosensor-based techniques allow rapid detection of pathogens in real time, verification of sensitivity to commonly used antimicrobial agents, and selection of suitable lysis agents. The detection of lysis takes place on the surface of the biosensor with immobilized bacteria, which has the potential to be used to study biofilms. An example of such a biosensor is surface plasmon resonance (SPR), which records the kinetics of bacterial lysis based on a change in the resonance angle. The bacteria are immobilized on the surface of the SPR chip, and the action of phage as the mass loss is monitored after a typical lytic cycle delay. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) is a technique for imaging of samples on the surface. In contrast to electron microscopy, it has the advantage of real-time imaging in the native conditions of the nutrient medium. In our case, Staphylococcus aureus was lysed using the enzyme lysostaphin and phage P68 from the familyPodoviridae at 37 ° C. In addition to visualization, AFM was used to study changes in mechanical properties during lysis, which resulted in a reduction of Young’s modulus (E) after disruption of the bacterial wall. Changes in E reflect the stiffness of the bacterium. These advanced methods provide deeper insight into bacterial lysis and can help to fight against bacterial diseases.

Keywords: biosensors, atomic force microscopy, surface plasmon resonance, bacterial lysis, staphylococcus aureus, phage P68

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: F. Sarkinfada, Dabo N. Tukur, Abbas A. Muaz, Adamu A. Yahuza

Abstract:

Appropriate Quality Assurance (QA) of parasite-based diagnosis of malaria to justify Artemisinin-based Combination Therapy (ACT) is essential for Malaria Programmes. In Low and Middle Income Countries (LMIC), resource constrain appears to be a major challenge in implementing the conventional QA system. We designed and implemented a modified LQAS model for QA of malaria parasite (MP) microscopy and RDT in a State Specialist Hospital (SSH) and a University Health Clinic (UHC) in Kano, Nigeria. The capacities of both facilities for MP microscopy and RDT were assessed before implementing a modified LQAS over a period of 3 months. Quality indicators comprising the qualities of blood film and staining, MP positivity rates, concordance rates, error rates (in terms of false positives and false negatives), sensitivity and specificity were monitored and evaluated. Seventy one percent (71%) of the basic requirements for malaria microscopy was available in both facilities, with the absence of certifies microscopists, SOPs and Quality Assurance mechanisms. A daily average of 16 to 32 blood samples were tested with a blood film staining quality of >70% recorded in both facilities. Using microscopy, the MP positivity rates were 50.46% and 19.44% in SSH and UHS respectively, while the MP positivity rates were 45.83% and 22.78% in SSH and UHS when RDT was used. Higher concordance rates of 88.90% and 93.98% were recorded in SSH and UHC respectively using microscopy, while lower rates of 74.07% and 80.58% in SSH and UHC were recorded when RDT was used. In both facilities, error rates were higher when RDT was used than with microscopy. Sensitivity and specificity were higher when microscopy was used (95% and 84% in SSH; 94% in UHC) than when RDT was used (72% and 76% in SSH; 78% and 81% in UHC). It could be feasible to implement an integrated QA model for MP microscopy and RDT using modified LQAS in Malaria Control Programmes in Low and Middle Income Countries that might have resource constrain for parasite-base diagnosis of malaria to justify ACT treatment.

Keywords: malaria, microscopy, quality assurance, RDT

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Nkiru Nnaemezie, J. O. Okafor

Abstract:

The high mortality as a result of pregnancy related illnesses is a global public health problem and a source of concern to most countries including Nigeria. This study was therefore designed to determine the Demographic Variables associated with common pregnancy related illnesses among pregnant mothers in Awka South Local Government Area of Anambra State. The design of the study was an expost-facto research design. All the folders of the pregnant mothers that were studied from 2010-2014 formed the population of the study which included 10,250 folders. Based on the content of the folders, a researcher developed pro-forma (RDP) was used for data collection. Five research questions and five hypotheses were postulated for the study. Research questions postulated were answered using simple percentage. Hypotheses stated were analyzed at 0.05 level of significance using chi-square (X²) statistics. The result among others showed that pregnant mothers within 15-29 years had the most pregnancy related illnesses than mothers on other age brackets. Pregnant mothers with 0-1 parity level experienced the most pregnancy related illnesses than mothers on other parity levels. Public servants experienced the most pregnancy related illnesses than mothers in other occupations. Married pregnant mothers experienced the most pregnancy related illnesses than single mothers. Pregnant mothers with secondary education had the most pregnancy related illnesses than mothers in other education levels. There were significant differences in the common pregnancy related illnesses among the pregnant mothers of the study in relation to the demographic variables of the study which included age, parity, occupation, marital status and educational level. Based on the findings, conclusions were drawn, and the following recommendations among others were made: there is need for health education in terms of educating those pregnant mothers during antenatal clinics; single mothers should be advised to register for antenatal early enough.

Keywords: analysis, demographic variables, pregnancy related illnesses, pregnant mothers

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Levent Basayigit, Sinan Demir, Burhan Kara, Yusuf Ucar

Abstract:

Cannabis is mostly used for drug production. In some countries, an excessive amount of illegal cannabis is cultivated and sold. Most of the illegal cannabis cultivation occurs on the lands far from settlements. In farmlands, it is cultivated with other crops. In this method, cannabis is surrounded by tall plants like corn and sunflower. It is also cultivated with tall crops as the mixed culture. The common method of the determination of the illegal cultivation areas is to investigate the information obtained from people. This method is not sufficient for the determination of illegal cultivation in remote areas. For this reason, more effective methods are needed for the determination of illegal cultivation. Remote Sensing is one of the most important technologies to monitor the plant growth on the land. The aim of this study is to monitor cannabis cultivation area using satellite imagery. The main purpose of this study was to develop an applicable method for monitoring the cannabis cultivation. For this purpose, cannabis was grown as single or surrounded by the corn and sunflower in plots. The morphological characteristics of cannabis were recorded two times per month during the vegetation period. The spectral signature library was created with the spectroradiometer. The parcels were monitored with high-resolution satellite imagery. With the processing of satellite imagery, the cultivation areas of cannabis were classified. To separate the Cannabis plots from the other plants, the multiresolution segmentation algorithm was found to be the most successful for classification. WorldView Improved Vegetative Index (WV-VI) classification was the most accurate method for monitoring the plant density. As a result, an object-based classification method and vegetation indices were sufficient for monitoring the cannabis cultivation in multi-temporal Earthwiev images.

Keywords: Cannabis, drug, remote sensing, object-based classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: In-Tsang Lin, Chiching Wei

Abstract:

Reading order is an important task in many digitization scenarios involving the preservation of the logical structure of a document. From the paper survey, it finds that the state-of-the-art algorithm could not fulfill to get the accurate reading order in the portable document format (PDF) files with rich formats, diverse layout arrangement. In recent years, most of the studies on the analysis of reading order have targeted the specific problem of associating layout components with logical labels, while less attention has been paid to the problem of extracting relationships the problem of detecting the reading order relationship between logical components, such as cross-references. Over 3 years of development, the company Foxit has demonstrated the layout recognition (LR) engine in revision 20601 to eager for the accuracy of the reading order. The bounding box of each paragraph can be obtained correctly by the Foxit LR engine, but the result of reading-order is not always correct for single-column, and two-column layout format due to the table issue, formula issue, and multiple mini separated bounding box and footer issue. Thus, the algorithm is developed to improve the accuracy of the reading order based on the Foxit LR structure. In this paper, a creative observation method (Here called the MESH method) is provided here to open a new chance in the research of the reading-order field. Here two important parameters are introduced, one parameter is the number of the bounding box on the right side of the present bounding box (NRight), and another parameter is the number of the bounding box under the present bounding box (Nunder). And the normalized x-value (x/the whole width), the normalized y-value (y/the whole height) of each bounding box, the x-, and y- position of each bounding box were also put into consideration. Initial experimental results of single column layout format demonstrate a 19.33% absolute improvement in accuracy of the reading-order over 7 PDF files (total 150 pages) using our proposed method based on the LR structure over the baseline method using the LR structure in 20601 revision, which its accuracy of the reading-order is 72%. And for two-column layout format, the preliminary results demonstrate a 44.44% absolute improvement in accuracy of the reading-order over 2 PDF files (total 18 pages) using our proposed method based on the LR structure over the baseline method using the LR structure in 20601 revision, which its accuracy of the reading-order is 0%. Until now, the footer issue and a part of multiple mini separated bounding box issue can be solved by using the MESH method. However, there are still three issues that cannot be solved, such as the table issue, formula issue, and the random multiple mini separated bounding boxes. But the detection of the table position and the recognition of the table structure are out of the scope in this paper, and there is needed another research. In the future, the tasks are chosen- how to detect the table position in the page and to extract the content of the table.

Keywords: document processing, reading order, observation method, layout recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Jesmin Akter, Chang Hyuk Ahn, Ilho Kim, Jaiyeop Lee

Abstract:

Global pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by Severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS-CoV-2, to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater surveillance has been used to monitor SARS-CoV2 prevalence in the community. The challenging part is establishing wastewater surveillance; there is a need for a well-equipped laboratory for wastewater sample analysis. According to many previous studies, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) based molecular tests are the most widely used and popular detection method worldwide. However, the RT-qPCR based approaches for the detection or quantification of SARS-CoV-2 genetic fragments ribonucleic acid (RNA) from wastewater require a specialized laboratory, skilled personnel, expensive instruments, and a workflow that typically requires 6 to 8 hours to provide results for just minimum samples. Rapid and reliable alternative detection methods are needed to enable less-well-qualified practitioners to set up and provide sensitive detection of SARS-CoV-2 within wastewater at less-specialized regional laboratories. Therefore, scientists and researchers are conducting experiments for rapid detection methods of COVID-19; in some cases, the structural and molecular characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 are unknown, and various strategies for the correct diagnosis of COVID-19 have been proposed by research laboratories, which are presented in the present study. The ongoing research and development of these highly sensitive and rapid technologies, namely RT-LAMP, ELISA, Biosensors, GeneXpert, allows a wide range of potential options not only for SARS-CoV-2 detection but also for other viruses as well. The effort of this study is to discuss the above effective and regional rapid detection and quantification methods in community wastewater as an essential step in advancing scientific goals.

Keywords: rapid detection, SARS-CoV-2, sensitive detection, wastewater surveillance

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Jayme R. T. Silva, Paulo G. P. Toro, Angelo Passaro, Giannino P. Camillo, Antonio C. Oliveira

Abstract:

An in-house C++ code has been developed, at the Prof. Henry T. Nagamatsu Laboratory of Aerothermodynamics and Hypersonics from the Institute of Advanced Studies (Brazil), to estimate the aerothermodynamic properties around the Hypersonic Vehicle Integrated to the Scramjet. In the future, this code will be applied to the design of the Brazilian Scramjet Technological Demonstrator 14-X B. The first step towards accomplishing this objective, is to apply the in-house C++ code at the leading edge of a flat plate, simulating the leading edge of the 14-X Hypersonic Vehicle, making possible the wave phenomena of oblique shock and boundary layer to be analyzed. The development of modern hypersonic space vehicles requires knowledge regarding the characteristics of hypersonic flows in the vicinity of a leading edge of lifting surfaces. The strong interaction between a shock wave and a boundary layer, in a high supersonic Mach number 4 viscous flow, close to the leading edge of the plate, considering no slip condition, is numerically investigated. The small slip region is neglecting. The study consists of solving the fluid flow equations for unstructured meshes applying the SIMPLE algorithm for Finite Volume Method. Unstructured meshes are generated by the in-house software ‘Modeler’ that was developed at Virtual’s Engineering Laboratory from the Institute of Advanced Studies, initially developed for Finite Element problems and, in this work, adapted to the resolution of the Navier-Stokes equations based on the SIMPLE pressure-correction scheme for all-speed flows, Finite Volume Method based. The in-house C++ code is based on the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations considering non-steady flow, with nobody forces, no volumetric heating, and no mass diffusion. Air is considered as calorically perfect gas, with constant Prandtl number and Sutherland's law for the viscosity. Solutions of the flat plate problem for Mach number 4 include pressure, temperature, density and velocity profiles as well as 2-D contours. Also, the boundary layer thickness, boundary conditions, and mesh configurations are presented. The same problem has been solved by the academic license of the software Ansys Fluent and for another C++ in-house code, which solves the fluid flow equations in structured meshes, applying the MacCormack method for Finite Difference Method, and the results will be compared.

Keywords: boundary-layer, scramjet, simple algorithm, shock wave

Procedia PDF Downloads 463

Authors: Bara' Al-Mistarehi

Abstract:

Documentation and assessment of conservation state of an archaeological structure is a significant procedure in any management plan. However, it has always been a challenge to apply this with a low coast and safe methodology. It is also a time-demanding procedure. Therefore, a low cost, efficient methodology for documenting the state of a structure is needed. In the scope of this research, this paper will employ digital photogrammetry and laser scanner to one of highly significant structures in Germany, The Old Castle (German: Altes Schloss). The site is well known for its unique features. However, the castle suffers from serious deterioration threats because of the environmental conditions and the absence of continuous monitoring, maintenance and repair plans. Digital photogrammetry is a generally accepted technique for the collection of 3D representations of the environment. For this reason, this image-based technique has been extensively used to produce high quality 3D models of heritage sites and historical buildings for documentation and presentation purposes. Additionally, terrestrial laser scanners are used, which directly measure 3D surface coordinates based on the run-time of reflected light pulses. These systems feature high data acquisition rates, good accuracy and high spatial data density. Despite the potential of each single approach, in this research work maximum benefit is to be expected by a combination of data from both digital cameras and terrestrial laser scanners. Within the paper, the usage, application and advantages of the technique will be investigated in terms of building high realistic 3D textured model for some parts of the old castle. The model will be used as diagnosing tool of the conservation state of the castle and monitoring mean for future changes.

Keywords: Digital photogrammetry, Terrestrial laser scanners, 3D textured model, archaeological structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Jasneet Kaur, Swapandeep Singh Chimni

Abstract:

The unfavorable use of metal-based catalysts that are often extortionate and toxic can be overcome by using small organic molecules known as organocatalysts. A variety of small organic molecules, including Brønsted/Lewis bases and acids, based on sulfonic acids, phosphoric acids, amines, phosphines or carbenes, Cinchona alkaloids, have been used as organocatalysts. One of the key reasons for using organocatalysis is their ability to be effectively removed from the final product in comparison to the metallic counterparts, which are exceedingly difficult to remove. The present investigation seeks to explore the catalytic nature of Cinchona alkaloids as an organocatalyst for enantioselective synthesis of 3-substituted-3-aminooxindole, which is known to exhibit a variety of biological activities and pharmacological activities. In this context, an organocatalytic asymmetric route for the synthesis of 3-aminooxindoles via reaction of isatin imine with α-acetoxy-β-ketoesters has been developed. The bifunctional Cinchona derived thiourea catalyzed the reaction of α-acetoxy-β-ketoesters derivatives with isatin imine to afford 3-substituted-aminooxindole derivatives in up to 93% yield, 95% enantiomeric excess and >20:1 diastereomeric ratio. The reaction was performed at room temperature for two hours using 10 mol% of catalyst, in the presence of 4Å molecular sieves in tetrahydrofuran as a solvent at ambient temperature. After the completion of the reaction, the pure product could be easily separated by using column chromatography using hexane and ethyl acetate as solvents. In conclusion, the catalytic potential of Cinchona derived chiral thiourea-tertiary amine catalyst was explored for an organocatalytic enantioselective Mannich reaction of β-ketoester derivatives with various isatin imine derivatives under mild conditions.

Keywords: asymmetric synthesis, aminooxindoles, enantioselective, isatin imine

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Thavasimuthu Citarasu, Mariavincent Michaelbabu, Vikram Vakharia

Abstract:

The rhizome of Java grass, Cyperus rotundus was extracted different organic polar and non-polar solvents and performed the in vitro antiviral and immunostimulant activities against White Spot Syndrome Virus (WSSV) and Vibrio harveyi respectively. Based on the initial screening the ethyl acetate extract of C. rotundus was strong activities and further it was purified through silica column chromatography and the fractions were screened again for antiviral and immunostimulant activity. Among the different fractions screened against the WSSV and V. harveyi, the fractions, F-III to FV had strong activities. In order to study the in vivo influence of C. rotundus, the fractions (F-III to FV) were pooled and delivered to the F. indicus through artificial feed for 30 days. After the feeding trail the experimental and control diet fed F. indicus were challenged with virulent WSSV and studied the survival, molecular diagnosis, biochemical, haematological and immunological parameters. Surprisingly, the pooled fractions (F-III to FV) incorporated diets helped to significantly (P < 0.01) suppressed viral multiplication, showed significant (P < 0.01) differences in protein and glucose levels, improved total haemocyte count (THC), coagulase activity, significantly increased (P < =0.001) prophenol oxidase and intracellular superoxide anion production compared to the control shrimps. Based on the results, C. rotundus extracts effectively suppressed WSSV multiplication and improve the immune system in F. indicus against WSSV infection and this knowledge will helps to develop novel drugs from C. rotundus against WSSV.

Keywords: antiviral drugs, cyperus rotundus, fenneropenaeus indicus, WSSV

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: Kenneth Nhundu, Leocadia Zhou, Farhad Aghdasi, Voster Muchenje

Abstract:

Climate change poses increased risks to rural communities that rely on natural resources, such as forests, cropland and rangeland, waterways, and open spaces Because of their connection to the land and the potential for climate change to impact natural resources and disrupt ecosystems and seasons, rural livelihoods and well-being are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change. Climate change has the potential to affect the environment in a number of ways that place increased stress on everyone, but disproportionately on the most vulnerable populations, including the young, the old, those with chronic illness, and the poor. The communities in the study area are predominantly rural, resource-based and are generally surrounded by public or private lands that are dominated by natural resources, including forests, rangelands, and agriculture. The livelihoods of these communities are tied to natural resources. Therefore, targeted strategies to cope will be required. This paper assessed the household socio-economic characteristics and their implications to household vulnerability to climate change impacts in the rural Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The results indicate that the rural communities are climate-vulnerable populations as they have a large proportion of people who are less economically or physically capable of adapting to climate change. The study therefore recommends that at each level, the needs, knowledge, and voices of vulnerable populations, including indigenous peoples and resource-based communities, deserve consideration and incorporation so that climate change policy (1) ensures that all people are supported and able to act, (2) provides as robust a strategy as possible to address a rapidly changing environment, and (3) enhances equity and justice.

Keywords: climate change, vulnerable, socio-economic, livelihoods

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Amin AminiKhafri, James M. Dawson-Edwards, Ryan M. Simpson, Simaan M. AbouRizk

Abstract:

Earned value management (EVM) has been introduced as an integrated method to combine schedule, budget, and work breakdown structure (WBS). EVM provides various indices to demonstrate project performance including the cost performance index (CPI). CPI is also used to forecast final project cost at completion based on the cost performance during the project execution. Knowing the final project cost during execution can initiate corrective actions, which can enhance project outputs. CPI, however, is not constant during the project, and calculating the final project cost using a variable index is an inaccurate and challenging task for practitioners. Since CPI is based on the cumulative progress values and because of the learning curve effect, CPI variation dampens and stabilizes as project progress. Although various definitions for the CPI stability have been proposed in literature, many scholars have agreed upon the definition that considers a project as stable if the CPI at 20% completion varies less than 0.1 from the final CPI. While 20% completion point is recognized as the stability point for military development projects, construction projects stability have not been studied. In the current study, an empirical study was first conducted using construction project data to determine the stability point for construction projects. Early findings have demonstrated that a majority of construction projects stabilize towards completion (i.e., after 70% completion point). To investigate the effect of CPI stability on cost forecast accuracy, the correlation between CPI stability and project cost at completion forecast accuracy was also investigated. It was determined that as projects progress closer towards completion, variation of the CPI decreases and final project cost forecast accuracy increases. Most projects were found to have 90% accuracy in the final cost forecast at 70% completion point, which is inlined with findings from the CPI stability findings. It can be concluded that early stabilization of the project CPI results in more accurate cost at completion forecasts.

Keywords: cost performance index, earned value management, empirical study, final project cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 142