Search results for: rainfall occurrences

Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak

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This study was analyzed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Thailand for the period 1981-2011.The study includes an analysis of the average and trends of changes in temperature and precipitation using 22 climate indices, related to the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme climate events. The results showed that the averaged trend of maximum, minimum and mean temperature is likely to increase over the study area in rate of 0.5, 0.9 and 0.7 °C in last 30 years. Changes in temperature at nighttime, then rising at a rate higher daytime is resulting to decline of diurnal temperature range throughout the area. Trend of changes in average precipitation during the year 1981-2011 is expected to increase at an average rate of 21%. The intensity of extreme temperature events is increasing almost all station. In particular, the changes of the night were unusually hot has intensified throughout the region. In some provinces such as Chiang Mai and Lampang are likely be faced with the severity of hot days and hot nights in increasing rate. Frequency of extreme temperature events are likely to increase each station, especially hot days, and hot nights are increasing at a rate of 2.38 and 3.58 days per decade. Changes in the cold days and cold nights are declining at a rate of 0.82 and 3.03 days per decade. The duration of extreme temperature events is expected to increase the events hot in every station. An average of 17.8 days per decade for the number of consecutive cold winter nights likely shortens the rate of 2.90 days per decade. The analysis of the precipitation indices reveals the intensity of extreme precipitation is increasing almost across the region. The intensify expressed the heavy rain in one day (Rx1day) and very heavy rain accumulated in 5 days (RX5day) which is likely to increase, and very heavy rainfall is likely to increase in intensity. Frequency of extreme precipitation events is likely to increase over the station. The average frequency of heavy precipitation events increased xxx days per decade. The duration of extreme precipitation events, such as the consecutive dry days are likely to reduce the numbers almost all station while the consecutive wet days tends to increase and decrease at different numbers in different areas.

Keywords: climate extreme, temperature extreme, precipitation extreme, Northern Thailand

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Authors: Domingos Viegas, Miguel Almeida, Carmen Rocha, Ilda Novo, Yolanda Luna

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Forest fires along the more than 1200km of the Spanish-Portuguese border are more and more frequent, currently achieving around 2000 fire events per year. Some of these events develop to large international wildfire requiring concerted operations based on shared information between the two countries. The fire event of Valencia de Alcantara (2003) causing several fatalities and more than 13000ha burnt, is a reference example of these international events. Currently, Portugal and Spain have a specific cross-border cooperation protocol on wildfires response for a strip of about 30km (15 km for each side). It is recognized by public authorities the successfulness of this collaboration however it is also assumed that this cooperation should include more functionalities such as the development of a common risk information system for transboundary fire events. Since Portuguese and Spanish authorities use different approaches to determine the fire risk indexes inputs and different methodologies to assess the fire risk, sometimes the conjoint firefighting operations are jeopardized since the information is not harmonized and the understanding of the situation by the civil protection agents from both countries is not unique. Thus, a methodology aiming the harmonization of the fire risk calculation and perception by Portuguese and Spanish Civil protection authorities is hereby presented. The final results are presented as well. The fire risk index used in this work is the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is based on meteorological data. The FWI is limited on its application as it does not take into account other important factors with great effect on the fire appearance and development. The combination of these factors is very complex since, besides the meteorology, it addresses several parameters of different topics, namely: sociology, topography, vegetation and soil cover. Therefore, the meaning of FWI values is different from region to region, according the specific characteristics of each region. In this work, a methodology for FWI calibration based on the number of fire occurrences and on the burnt area in the transboundary regions of Portugal and Spain, in order to assess the fire risk based on calibrated FWI values, is proposed. As previously mentioned, the cooperative firefighting operations require a common perception of the information shared. Therefore, a common classification of the fire risk for the fire events occurred in the transboundary strip is proposed with the objective of harmonizing this type of information. This work is integrated in the ECHO project SpitFire - Spanish-Portuguese Meteorological Information System for Transboundary Operations in Forest Fires, which aims the development of a web platform for the sharing of information and supporting decision tools to be used in international fire events involving Portugal and Spain.

Keywords: data harmonization, FWI, international collaboration, transboundary wildfires

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Authors: Kgopa Bontle, Tholen Sodi

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Climate change poses a major threat to the well-being of both people and the environment, with subsistence farmers most affected as they rely on local supply systems that are sensitive to climate variation. This study documented psychological resilience factors associated with climate change adaptations by subsistence farmers in Maruleng Municipality, Limpopo Province. A qualitative study was conducted to examine the notions of climate change by subsistence farmers, the psychological resilience factors, the strategies to cope with climate change, adaptation methods, and the development of subsistence farmers’ psychological resilience factors model. Data were collected through direct interactions with participants using a grounded theory research design. An open-ended interview was used to collect data with a sample of 15 participants selected through theoretical sampling in Maruleng Municipality. The participants were both Sepedi and Xitsonga speaking from 2 villages, mostly unemployed, pensioners and dependent on social grants. The study included both males and females who were predominately the elderly. The research findings indicate that farmers have limited knowledge of what climate change is and what causes it. Furthermore, the research reflects that although their responses were non-scientific but sensible enough to know what they were dealing with. They mentioned extreme weather, which includes hot days and less rainfall and changes in seasons, as some of the impacts brought by climate change. The results also indicated that participants have learned to adapt through several adaptation strategies, including mulching, changes in irrigation time slots and being innovative. The resilience factors that emerged from the study were a passion for farming, hope, enthusiasm, courage, acceptance/tolerance, livelihood and belief systems. Looking at the socio-economic factors of the current study setting argumentation leads to the conclusion that it is important that government should assist the subsistence farmers as it was observed from the participants that they felt neglected by the government and policymakers as they are small scale farmers and are not included like commercial farmers.

Keywords: climate change, psychological resilience factors, human adaptation, subsistence farmers

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Authors: B. D. Patni, Ashwani Jain, Arindom Chakraborty

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The world’s highest mountain range has been forming since the collision of Indian Plate with Asian Plate 40-50 million years ago. The Indian subcontinent has been deeper and deeper in to the rest of Asia resulting upliftment of Himalaya & Tibetan Plateau. The complex domain has become a major challenge for construction of hydro electric projects. The Himalayas are geologically complex & seismically active. Shifting of Indian Plate northwardly and increasing the amount of stresses in the fragile domain which leads to deformation in the form of several fold, faults and upliftment. It is difficult to undergo extensive geological investigation to ascertain the geological problems to be encountered during construction. Inaccessibility of the terrain, high rock cover, unpredictable ground water condition etc. are the main constraints. The hydroelectric projects located in Himalayas have faced many geological and geo-hydrological problems while construction of surface and subsurface works. Based on the experience, efforts have been made to identify the expected geological problems during and after construction of the projects. These have been classified into surface and subsurface problems which include existence of inhomogeneous deep overburden in the river bed or buried valley, abrupt change in bed rock profile, Occurrences of fault zones/shear zones/fractured rock in dam foundation and slope instability in the abutments. The tunneling difficulties are many such as squeezing ground condition, popping, rock bursting, high temperature gradient, heavy ingress of water, existence of shear seams/shear zones and emission of obnoxious gases. However, these problems were mitigated by adopting suitable remedial measures as per site requirement. The support system includes shotcrete, wire mesh, rock bolts, steel ribs, fore-poling, pre-grouting, pipe-roofing, MAI anchors, toe wall, retaining walls, reinforced concrete dowels, drainage drifts, anchorage cum drainage shafts, soil nails, concrete cladding and shear keys. Controlled drilling & blasting, heading & benching, proper drainage network and ventilation system are other remedial measures adopted to overcome such adverse situations. The paper highlights the geological uncertainties and its remedial measures in Himalaya, based on the analysis and evaluation of 20 hydroelectric projects during construction.

Keywords: geological problems, shear seams, slope, drilling & blasting, shear zones

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Authors: Shivangi Somvanshi

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Poor crop productivity in salt-affected environment in the country is due to insufficient and untimely canal supply to agricultural land and inefficient field water management practices. This could further degrade due to inadequate maintenance of canal network, ongoing secondary soil salinization and waterlogging, worsening of groundwater quality. Large patches of low productivity in irrigation commands are occurring due to waterlogging and salt-affected soil, particularly in the scarcity rainfall year. Satellite remote sensing has been used for mapping of areas of low crop productivity, waterlogging and salt in irrigation commands. The spatial results obtained for these problems so far are less reliable for further use due to rapid change in soil quality parameters over the years. The existing spatial databases of canal network and flow data, groundwater quality and salt-affected soil were obtained from the central and state line departments/agencies and were integrated with GIS. Therefore, an integrated methodology based on remote sensing and GIS has been developed in ArcGIS environment on the basis of canal supply status, groundwater quality, salt-affected soils, and satellite-derived vegetation index (NDVI), salinity index (NDSI) and waterlogging index (NSWI). This methodology was tested for identification and delineation of area of low productivity in the Gautam Buddha Nagar district (Uttar Pradesh). It was found that the area affected by this problem lies mainly in Dankaur and Jewar blocks of the district. The problem area was verified with ground data and was found to be approximately 78% accurate. The methodology has potential to be used in other irrigation commands in the country to obtain reliable spatial data on low crop productivity.

Keywords: remote sensing, GIS, salt affected soil, crop productivity, Gautam Buddha Nagar

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Authors: Kartikey Gupta

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Global warming and environmental degradation are at their peak today, with the years after 2000A.D. giving way to 15 hottest years in terms of average temperatures. In India, much of the standard temperature measuring equipment are located in ‘developed’ urban areas, hence showing us an incomplete picture in terms of the climate across many rural areas, which comprises most of the landmass. This study showcases data studied by the author since 3 years at Vatsalya’s Children’s village, in outskirts of Jaipur, Rajasthan, India; in the midst of semi-arid topography, where consistently huge temperature differences of up to 15.8 degrees Celsius from local Jaipur weather only 30 kilometers away, are stunning yet scary at the same time, encouraging analysis of where the natural climatic pattern is heading due to rapid unrestricted urbanization. Record-breaking data presented in this project enforces the need to discuss causes and recovery techniques. This research further explores how and to what extent we are causing phenomenal disturbances in the natural meteorological pattern by urban growth. Detailed data observations using a standardized ambient weather station at study site and comparing it with closest airport weather data, evaluating the patterns and differences, show striking differences in temperatures, wind patterns and even rainfall quantity, especially during high-pressure zone days. Winter-time lows dip to 8 degrees below freezing with heavy frost and ice, while only 30 kms away minimum figures barely touch single-digit temperatures. Human activity is having an unprecedented effect on climatic patterns in record-breaking trends, which is a warning of what may follow in the next 15-25 years for the next generation living in cities, and a serious exploration into possible solutions is a must.

Keywords: climate change, meteorology, urban heat island, urbanization

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Authors: Laila Nassiri, Aziza Irhza, Jamal Ibijbijen, Fouad Rachidi, Ghizlane Echchgadda

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The introduction of agroecological practices in ecosystems can contribute to meeting the challenges posed by the diversion of current agricultural production systems towards efficient production methods that are more respectful of the environment, including a reasoned use of inputs and resources. Intercropping is one of these practices that requires the production of two or more crops on the same plot and during the same growing season. Organic fertilization also can contribute to increase the yield due to the potential availability of nutrients. The objective of this work is to study the effect of intercropping and organic fertilization, which are two important practices of agroecology, on potato yield. Intercropping of potato and faba bean was carried out at the Agroecology and Environment platform (ENA, Meknes). The soil is silty-clay, the climate is warm with an average temperature of 17.1°C, and the annual average rainfall of 511mm. Four treatments were tested: Potato sole crop (T1), potato + organic fertilization (T2), Potato + faba bean (T3), Potato + faba bean + organic fertilization (T4). The results showed that there is a significant effect of the treatment on the evolution of the agronomical characters studied, especially the number of leaves and the yield. The number of stems at t0 was equal to 1 in all treatments; it began to grow after 30 days from the date of sowing with a slight increase in treatments containing organic fertilization (T2-T4), then it stabilized 60 days after sowing. In terms of the mean value of the number of leaves, a significant difference was noted between the treatments, the highest value was recorded in treatment T2. The T2 treatment showed the highest average yield, followed by the control (T1). As for the yield, treatments T2 and T1 recorded the highest number of tubers. In order to evaluate two of the practices of agroecology, this work focuses on the evaluation of the effect of intercropping and organic fertilization on the growth and yield parameters of the potato. The results obtained show that agroecological practices have a significant effect on the measured parameters.

Keywords: agroecology, intercropping, organic fertilization, potato yield

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Authors: Najibullah M, Soumendra Nath Kuiry

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Dams and reservoirs are perceived for their estimable alms to irrigation, water supply, flood control, electricity generation, etc. which civilize the prosperity and wealth of society across the world. Meantime the dam breach could cause devastating flood that can threat to the human lives and properties. Failures of large dams remain fortunately very seldom events. Nevertheless, a number of occurrences have been recorded in the world, corresponding in an average to one to two failures worldwide every year. Some of those accidents have caused catastrophic consequences. So it is decisive to predict the dam break flow for emergency planning and preparedness, as it poses high risk to life and property. To mitigate the adverse impact of dam break, modeling is necessary to gain a good understanding of the temporal and spatial evolution of the dam-break floods. This study will mainly deal with one-dimensional (1D) dam break modeling. Less commonly used in the hydraulic research community, another possible option for modeling the rapidly varied dam-break flows is the extended Boussinesq equations (BEs), which can describe the dynamics of short waves with a reasonable accuracy. Unlike the Shallow Water Equations (SWEs), the BEs taken into account the wave dispersion and non-hydrostatic pressure distribution. To capture the dam-break oscillations accurately it is very much needed of at least fourth-order accurate numerical scheme to discretize the third-order dispersion terms present in the extended BEs. The scope of this work is therefore to develop an 1D fourth-order accurate in both space and time Boussinesq model for dam-break flow analysis by using finite-volume / finite difference scheme. The spatial discretization of the flux and dispersion terms achieved through a combination of finite-volume and finite difference approximations. The flux term, was solved using a finite-volume discretization whereas the bed source and dispersion term, were discretized using centered finite-difference scheme. Time integration achieved in two stages, namely the third-order Adams Basforth predictor stage and the fourth-order Adams Moulton corrector stage. Implementation of the 1D Boussinesq model done using PYTHON 2.7.5. Evaluation of the performance of the developed model predicted as compared with the volume of fluid (VOF) based commercial model ANSYS-CFX. The developed model is used to analyze the risk of cascading dam failures similar to the Panshet dam failure in 1961 that took place in Pune, India. Nevertheless, this model can be used to predict wave overtopping accurately compared to shallow water models for designing coastal protection structures.

Keywords: Boussinesq equation, Coastal protection, Dam-break flow, One-dimensional model

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Authors: Philip A. Moore Jr., Jerry Martin, Hong Li

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Research has shown that over half of the nitrogen (N) excreted from broiler chickens is emitted to the atmosphere before the manure is removed from the barns, resulting in air and water pollution, as well as the loss of a valuable fertilizer resource. The objective of this study was to determine the fertilizer efficiency of N captured from the exhaust air from poultry houses using acid scrubbers. This research was conducted using 24 plots located on a Captina silt loam soil. There were six treatments: (1) unfertilized control, (2) aluminum sulfate (alum) scrubber solution, (3) potassium bisulfate scrubber solution, (4) sodium bisulfate scrubber solution, (5) sulfuric acid scrubber solution and (6) ammonium nitrate fertilizer dissolved in water. There were four replications per treatment in a randomized block design. The scrubber solutions were obtained from acid scrubbers attached to exhaust fans on commercial broiler houses. All N sources were applied at an application rate equivalent to 112 kg N ha⁻¹. Forage yields were measured five times throughout the growing season. Five months after the fertilizer sources were applied, a rainfall simulation study was conducted to determine the potential effects on phosphorus (P) runoff. Forage yields were significantly higher in plots fertilized with scrubber solutions from potassium bisulfate and sodium bisulfate than plots fertilized with scrubber solutions made from alum or sulfuric acid or ammonium nitrate, which were higher than the controls (7.61, 7.46, 6.87, 6.72, 6.45, and 5.12 Mg ha ⁻¹, respectively). Forage N uptake followed similar trends as yields. Phosphorus runoff and water soluble P was significantly lower in plots fertilized with the scrubber solutions made from aluminum sulfate. This study demonstrates that N captured using ammonia scrubbers is as good or possibly better than commercial ammonium nitrate fertilizer.

Keywords: air quality, ammonia emissions, nitrogen fertilizer, poultry

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Authors: Mst. Nilufa Sultana, Shatirah Akib, Muhammad Aqeel Ashraf, Mohamed Roseli Zainal Abidin

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Most people today are aware that global Climate change, is not just a scientific theory but also a fact with worldwide consequences. Global climate change is due to rapid urbanization, industrialization, high population growth and current vulnerability of the climatic condition. Water is becoming scarce as a result of global climate change. To mitigate the problem arising due to global climate change and its drought effect, harvesting rainwater from green roofs, an environmentally-friendly and versatile technology, is becoming one of the best assessment criteria and gaining attention in Malaysia. This paper addresses the sustainability of green roofs and examines the quality of water harvested from green roofs in comparison to rainwater. The factors that affect the quality of such water, taking into account, for example, roofing materials, climatic conditions, the frequency of rainfall frequency and the first flush. A green roof was installed on the Humid Tropic Centre (HTC) is a place of the study on monitoring program for urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA), Eco-Hydrological Project in Kualalumpur, and the rainwater was harvested and evaluated on the basis of four parameters i.e., conductivity, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH and temperature. These parameters were found to fall between Class I and Class III of the Interim National Water Quality Standards (INWQS) and the Water Quality Index (WQI). Some preliminary treatment such as disinfection and filtration could likely to improve the value of these parameters to class I. This review paper clearly indicates that there is a need for more research to address other microbiological and chemical quality parameters to ensure that the harvested water is suitable for use potable water for domestic purposes. The change in all physical, chemical and microbiological parameters with respect to storage time will be a major focus of future studies in this field.

Keywords: Green roofs, INWQS, MSMA-SME, rainwater harvesting, water treatment, water quality parameter, WQI

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Authors: Tomasz Grzes, Maciej Kopczynski, Jaroslaw Stepaniuk

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The rough sets theory developed by Prof. Z. Pawlak is one of the tools that can be used in the intelligent systems for data analysis and processing. Banking, medicine, image recognition and security are among the possible fields of utilization. In all these fields, the amount of the collected data is increasing quickly, but with the increase of the data, the computation speed becomes the critical factor. Data reduction is one of the solutions to this problem. Removing the redundancy in the rough sets can be achieved with the reduct. A lot of algorithms of generating the reduct were developed, but most of them are only software implementations, therefore have many limitations. Microprocessor uses the fixed word length, consumes a lot of time for either fetching as well as processing of the instruction and data; consequently, the software based implementations are relatively slow. Hardware systems don’t have these limitations and can process the data faster than a software. Reduct is the subset of the decision attributes that provides the discernibility of the objects. For the given decision table there can be more than one reduct. Core is the set of all indispensable condition attributes. None of its elements can be removed without affecting the classification power of all condition attributes. Moreover, every reduct consists of all the attributes from the core. In this paper, the hardware implementation of the two-stage greedy algorithm to find the one reduct is presented. The decision table is used as an input. Output of the algorithm is the superreduct which is the reduct with some additional removable attributes. First stage of the algorithm is calculating the core using the discernibility matrix. Second stage is generating the superreduct by enriching the core with the most common attributes, i.e., attributes that are more frequent in the decision table. Described above algorithm has two disadvantages: i) generating the superreduct instead of reduct, ii) additional first stage may be unnecessary if the core is empty. But for the systems focused on the fast computation of the reduct the first disadvantage is not the key problem. The core calculation can be achieved with a combinational logic block, and thus add respectively little time to the whole process. Algorithm presented in this paper was implemented in Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) as a digital device consisting of blocks that process the data in a single step. Calculating the core is done by the comparators connected to the block called 'singleton detector', which detects if the input word contains only single 'one'. Calculating the number of occurrences of the attribute is performed in the combinational block made up of the cascade of the adders. The superreduct generation process is iterative and thus needs the sequential circuit for controlling the calculations. For the research purpose, the algorithm was also implemented in C language and run on a PC. The times of execution of the reduct calculation in a hardware and software were considered. Results show increase in the speed of data processing.

Keywords: data reduction, digital systems design, field programmable gate array (FPGA), reduct, rough set

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Authors: Anik Sarminingsih, Krishna V. Pradana

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The failure of flood control system can be caused by various factors, such as not considering the uncertainty of designed flood causing the capacity of the flood control system is exceeded. The presence of the uncertainty factor is recognized as a serious issue in hydrological studies. Uncertainty in hydrological analysis is influenced by many factors, starting from reading water elevation data, rainfall data, selection of method of analysis, etc. In hydrological modeling selection of models and parameters corresponding to the watershed conditions should be evaluated by the hydraulic model in the river as a drainage channel. River cross-section capacity is the first defense in knowing the reliability of the flood control system. Reliability of river capacity describes the potential magnitude of flood risk. Case study in this research is Wulan River in Central Java. This river occurring flood almost every year despite some efforts to control floods such as levee, floodway and diversion. The flood-affected areas include several sub-districts, mainly in Kabupaten Kudus and Kabupaten Demak. First step is analyze the frequency of discharge observation from Klambu weir which have time series data from 1951-2013. Frequency analysis is performed using several distribution frequency models such as Gumbel distribution, Normal, Normal Log, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson. The result of the model based on standard deviation overlaps, so the maximum flood discharge from the lower return periods may be worth more than the average discharge for larger return periods. The next step is to perform a hydraulic analysis to evaluate the reliability of river capacity based on the flood discharge resulted from several methods. The selection of the design flood discharge of flood control system is the result of the method closest to bankfull capacity of the river.

Keywords: design flood, hydrological model, reliability, uncertainty, Wulan river

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Authors: Shang-Hsin Ou, Yang-Chun Lin, Ke-Hao Cheng

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The year 2021 marked a historic drought in Taiwan, posing unprecedented challenges due to record-low rainfall and inadequate reservoir storage. The central region experienced water scarcity, leading to the implementation of "Groundwater Utilization at Construction Sites" for drought-resilient livelihood water supply. This study focuses on the establishment process of temporary groundwater treatment plants at construction sites in Taichung City, serving as a reference for future emergency response and the utilization of construction site groundwater. To identify suitable sites for groundwater reuse projects, site selection operations were carried out based on relevant water quality regulations and assessment principles. Subsequently, the planning and design of temporary water treatment plants were conducted, considering the water quality, quantity, and on-site conditions of groundwater wells associated with construction projects. The study consolidates the major water treatment facilities at each site and addresses encountered challenges during the establishment process. Practical insights gained from operating temporary groundwater treatment plants are presented, including improvements related to stable water quality, water quantity, equipment operation, and hydraulic control. In light of possible future droughts, this study provides an outlook and recommendations to expedite and improve the setup of groundwater treatment plants at construction sites. This includes considering on-site water abstraction, treatment, and distribution conditions. The study's results aim to offer practical guidelines for effectively establishing and managing such treatment plants, while offering experiences and recommendations for other regions facing similar emergencies, water shortages, and drought situations. These endeavors contribute to ensuring sustainable water supply for drought-resilient livelihoods and maintaining societal stability.

Keywords: drought resilience, groundwater treatment, construction site, water supply

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Authors: O. Benabdeljelil, A. Karioun, S. Amami, R. Rouger, M. Hamidine

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A model for preventing the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector is presented. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a producer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, the main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is determined from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. The model also requires accurate pricing of commodity at N+1. Therefore, a pricing model is developed using 3 state variables, namely the spot price, the difference between the mean-term and the long-term forward price, and the long-term structure of the model. The use of historical data enables to calibrate the parameters of state variables, and allows the pricing of commodity. Application to beet sugar underlines pricer precision. Indeed, the percentage of accuracy between computed result and real world is 99,5%. Optimal premium is then deduced and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect its harvest. The application to beet production in French Oise department illustrates the reliability of present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost any agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.

Keywords: agriculture, production model, optimal price, meteorological factors, 3-factor model, parameter calibration, forward price

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Authors: Alono Thorie, Ananya Mukhopadhyay

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Ooid bearing horizons of the Proterozoic Kunihar Formation, Simla Group, Lesser Himalaya have been addressed in the present work. The study is concentrated around the outskirts of Arki town, Solan district, Himachal Pradesh, India. Based on the sedimentary facies associations, the processes that promote the formation of ooids have been documented. The facies associations that have been recorded are: (i) Oolitic-Intraclastic grainstone (FA1), (ii) Oolitic grainstone (FA2), (iii) Boundstone (FA3), (iv) Dolomudstone (FA4) and (v) Rudstone (FA5). Oolitic-Intraclastic grainstone (FA1) mainly consists of well sorted ooids with concentric laminae and intraclasts. Large ooids with grain sizes more than 4 mm are characteristic of oolites throughout the area. Normally graded beds consisting of ooids and intraclasts are frequently documented in storm sediments in shelf environments and carbonate platforms. The well-sorted grainstone fabric indicates deposition in a high-energy shoal with tidal currents and storm reworking. FA2 comprises spherical to elliptical grains up to 8.5cm in size with concentric cortex and micritic nuclei. Peloids in FA2 are elliptical, rounded objects <0.3 mm in size. FA1 and FA2 have been recorded alongside boundstones (FA3) comprising stromatolites having columnar, wavy and domal morphology. Boundstones (FA3) reflect microbial growth in carbonate platforms and reefs. Dolomudstones (FA4) interbedded with cross laminated sandstones and erosional surfaces reflect sedimentation in storm dominated zones below fair-weather wave base. Rudstone (FA5) is composed of oolitic grainstone (FA2), boundstone (FA3) and dolomudstone (FA4). These clasts are few mm to more than 10 cm in length. Rudstones indicate deposition along a slope with intermittent influence of wave currents and storm activities. Most ooids from the Kunihar Formation are regular ooids with abundance of broken ooids. Compound and concentric ooids indicating medium to low energy environments are present but scarce. Ooids from high energy domains are more dominant than ooids developed from low energy environments. The unusually large size of the Kunihar ooids (more than 8.5 cm) is rare in the geological record. Development of carbonate deposits such as oolitic- intraclastic Grainstones (FA1), oolitic grainstones (FA2) and rudstones (FA5), and reflect deposition in an agitated beach environment with abundant microbial activity and high energy shallow marine waters influenced by tide, wave and storm currents. Occurrences of boundstone (FA4) or stromatolitic carbonate amongst oolitic facies (FA1 and FA2) and appearance of compound and concentric ooids indicate intervals of calm in between agitated phases of storm, wave and tidal activities.

Keywords: proterozoic, Simla Group, ooids, stromatolites

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Authors: Alfonsina Buoniconto

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The aim of this study is to investigate the degree of cross-linguistic and intra-linguistic variation in the encoding of motion events (MEs) in English and Italian, these being typologically different languages both showing signs of disobedience to their respective types. As a matter of fact, the traditional typological classification of MEs encoding distributes languages into two macro-types, based on the preferred locus for the expression of Path, the main ME component (other components being Figure, Ground and Manner) characterized by conceptual and structural prominence. According to this model, Satellite-framed (SF) languages typically express Path information in verb-dependent items called satellites (e.g. preverbs and verb particles) with main verbs encoding Manner of motion; whereas Verb-framed languages (VF) tend to include Path information within the verbal locus, leaving Manner to adjuncts. Although this dichotomy is valid altogether, languages do not always behave according to their typical classification patterns. English, for example, is usually ascribed to the SF type due to the rich inventory of postverbal particles and phrasal verbs used to express spatial relations (i.e. the cat climbed down the tree); nevertheless, it is not uncommon to find constructions such as the fog descended slowly, which is typical of the VF type. Conversely, Italian is usually described as being VF (cf. Paolo uscì di corsa ‘Paolo went out running’), yet SF constructions like corse via in lacrime ‘She ran away in tears’ are also frequent. This paper will try to demonstrate that such a typological overlapping is due to the fact that the semantic units making up MEs are distributed within several loci of the sentence –not only verbs and satellites– thus determining a number of different constructions stemming from convergent factors. Indeed, the linguistic expression of motion events depends not only on the typological nature of languages in a traditional sense, but also on a series morphological, lexical, and syntactic resources, as well as on inferential, discursive, usage-related, and cultural factors that make semantic information more or less accessible, frequent, and easy to process. Hence, rather than describe English and Italian in dichotomic terms, this study focuses on the investigation of cross-linguistic and intra-linguistic variation in the use of all the strategies made available by each linguistic system to express motion. Evidence for these assumptions is provided by parallel corpora analysis. The sample texts are taken from two contemporary Italian novels and their respective English translations. The 400 motion occurrences selected (200 in English and 200 in Italian) were scanned according to the MODEG (an acronym for Motion Decoding Grid) methodology, which grants data comparability through the indexation and retrieval of combined morphosyntactic and semantic information at different levels of detail.

Keywords: construction typology, motion event encoding, parallel corpora, satellite-framed vs. verb-framed type

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Authors: Akbar Khodavirdizadeh, Ali Nemati Babaylou, Hassan Moomivand

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The history of human access to water technique has been one of the factors in the formation of human civilizations in the ancient world. The technique that makes surface water and groundwater accessible to humans on the ground has been a clever technique in human life to reach the water. In this study, while examining the water technique of ancient Iran using the Qanats technique, the water supply system of different regions of the ancient world were also studied and compared. Six groups of the ancient region of ancient Greece (Archaic 480-750 BC and Classical 223-480 BC), Urartu in Tuspa (600-850 BC), Petra (106-168 BC), Ancient Rome (265 BC), and the ancient United States (1450 BC) and ancient Iranian water technologies were studied under water supply systems. Past water technologies in these areas: water transmission systems in primary urban centers, use of water structures in water control, use of bridges in water transfer, construction of waterways for water transfer, storage of rainfall, construction of various types of pottery- ceramic, lead, wood and stone pipes have been used in water transfer, flood control, water reservoirs, dams, channel, wells, and Qanat. The central plateau of Iran is one of the arid and desert regions. Archaeological, geomorphological, and paleontological studies of the central region of the Iranian plateau showed that without the use of Qanats, the possibility of urban civilization in this region was difficult and even impossible. Zarch aqueduct is the most important aqueduct in Yazd region. Qanat of Zarch is a plain Qanat with a gallery length of 80 km; its mother well is 85 m deep and has 2115 well shafts. The main purpose of building the Qanat of Zārch was to access the groundwater source and transfer it to the surface of the ground. Regarding the structure of the aqueduct and the technique of transferring water from the groundwater source to the surface, it has a great impact on being different from other water techniques in the ancient world. The results show that the use of water technologies in ancient is very important to understand the history of humanity in the use of hydraulic techniques.

Keywords: ancient water technologies, groundwaters, qanat, human history, Ancient Iran

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Authors: H. H. Elewa, E. M. Ramadan, A. M. Nosair

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Rainfall water harvesting is considered as an important tool for overcoming water scarcity in arid and semi-arid region. Wadi Watir in the southeastern part of Sinai Peninsula is considered as one of the main and active basins in the Gulf of Aqaba drainage system. It is characterized by steep hills mainly consist of impermeable rocks, whereas the streambeds are covered by a highly permeable mixture of gravel and sand. A comprehensive approach involving the integration of geographic information systems, remote sensing and watershed modeling was followed to identify the RWH capability in this area. Eight thematic layers, viz volume of annual flood, overland flow distance, maximum flow distance, rock or soil infiltration, drainage frequency density, basin area, basin slope and basin length were used as a multi-parametric decision support system for conducting weighted spatial probability models (WSPMs) to determine the potential areas for the RWH. The WSPMs maps classified the area into five RWH potentiality classes ranging from the very low to very high. Three performed WSPMs' scenarios for W. Watir reflected identical results among their maps for the high and very high RWH potentiality classes, which are the most suitable ones for conducting surface water harvesting techniques. There is also a reasonable match with respect to the potentiality of runoff harvesting areas with a probability of moderate, low and very low among the three scenarios. WSPM results have shown that the high and very high classes, which are the most suitable for the RWH are representing approximately 40.23% of the total area of the basin. Accordingly, several locations were decided for the establishment of water harvesting dams and cisterns to improve the water conditions and living environment in the study area.

Keywords: Sinai, Wadi Watir, remote sensing, geographic information systems, watershed modeling, runoff water harvesting

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Authors: Faezeh Eslamian, Zhiming Qi, Michael J. Tate

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Phosphorus losses from agricultural fields through leaching is one of the main contributors to eutrophication of lakes in Quebec as well as North America. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the application of high calcium hydrated lime as a soil amendment in reducing the subsurface transport of phosphorus to water bodies by studying the interactions between phosphorus leaching and lime application in three common agricultural soil textures (sandy loam, loam and clay loam) in Quebec. For this purpose, 6 intact soil columns of 10 cm diameter and 20 cm deep were taken from each of the three different soil textured agricultural fields. Lime (high calcium hydrated lime) was applied to the top 5 cm of half of the intact soil columns while the rest were left as controls. The columns were leached with artificial rainwater in-consecutively at a rate of 3 mm h-1 over a 90-day period. The total amount of water added was equal to the average total rainfall of the region in fall. The leachate samples were collected daily and analyzed for dissolved reactive phosphorus, total dissolved phosphorus, total phosphorus, pH, electrical conductivity, calcium, magnesium, potassium and iron. The results showed that lime was able to significantly reduce dissolved reactive phosphorus concentrations in the leachates by 70 and 40 percent in sandy loam and loam soil columns, respectively, while phosphorus concentration in the clay loam soil leachates were increased by 40 percent. The calcium in lime has P-binding capabilities. Soil chemical properties in sandy and loamy soils can affect phosphorus leaching, whereas, transport mechanisms in clay soils with macropores dominate phosphorus leaching behaviors. The presence of preferential pathways and cracks in the clay soil columns has led to a quick transport of phosphorus through the soil and the less contact time with the soil matrix, therefore, causing less opportunity for P sorption and larger P release. Application of lime to agricultural fields can be considered as a promising measure in mitigating phosphorus loss from sandy loam and loam soils.

Keywords: leaching, lime, phosphorus, soil texture

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Authors: Md. Rezaul Karim, Andreas Thiel

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Bangladesh is known as one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. Innovative technologies are always the key responses to the management of climate impacts. The objectives of this study are to determine the farmer’s perception of climate variability, to compare farmers’ perceptions with metrological data, and to explore the determinants that affect the likelihood of adoption of the selected Climate Smart Agricultural (CSA) technologies. Data regarding climate change perception, determinants and adoption were collected based on the household survey from stratified and randomly selected 365 farmers of the Biral sub-district under Dinajpur district in drought-prone northern Bangladesh. The likelihood of adoption of CSA technologies was analyzed following a multivariate probit model. The findings show that about 82.5% of the farmers perceived increasing temperature, and 75.1 % of farmers perceived decreasing dry season rainfall over the years, which is similarly relevant to metrological data. About 76.4.7% and 80.85% of farmers were aware of the drought tolerance crops and vermicompost, respectively; more than half of the farmers adopted these practices. Around 70.7% of farmers were aware of perching for insect control, but 46.3% of farmers adopted this practice. Although two-thirds of farmers were aware of crop diversification and pheromone trap, adoption was lower compared to the other three CSAs. Results also indicate that the likelihood of adoption of the selected CSAs is significantly influenced by different factors such as socio-economic characteristics, institutional factors and perceived technological or innovation attributes. The likelihood of adopting drought tolerance crops is affected by 11, while crop diversification and perching method by 7, pheromone trap by 9 and vermicompost by 8 determining factors. Lack of information and unavailability of input appear to be major obstacles to the non-adoption of CSA technologies. This study suggests that policy implications are necessary to promote extension services and overcome the obstacles to the non-adoption of individual CSA technologies. It further recommends that the research study should be conducted in a diverse context, nationally or globally.

Keywords: determinants, adoption, climate smart agriculture, northern Bangladesh

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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India faces a critical task of water shortage, specifically during dry seasons, which adversely impacts agricultural productivity and food protection. Natural farming, specializing in sustainable practices, demands green water management in smart cities in India. This paper examines how rooftop rainwater harvesting (RRWH) can alleviate water scarcity and support sustainable organic farming practices in India. RRWH emerges as a promising way to increase water availability for the duration of dry intervals and decrease reliance on traditional water sources in smart cities. The look at explores the capacity of RRWH to enhance water use performance, help crop growth, enhance soil health, and promote ecological stability inside the farming ecosystem. The medical paper delves into the advantages, challenges, and implementation techniques of RRWH in organic farming. It addresses demanding situations, including seasonal variability of rainfall, limited rooftop vicinity, and monetary concerns. Moreover, it analyses broader environmental and socio-economic implications of RRWH for sustainable agriculture, emphasizing water conservation, biodiversity protection, and the social properly-being of farming communities. The belief underscores the importance of RRWH as a sustainable solution for reaching the aim of sustainable agriculture in natural farming in India. It emphasizes the want for further studies, policy advocacy, and capacity-building initiatives to promote RRWH adoption and assist the transformation in the direction of sustainable organic farming systems. The paper proposes adaptive strategies to triumph over demanding situations and optimize the advantages of RRWH in organic farming. By way of doing so, India can make vast development in addressing water scarcity issues and making sure a greater resilient and sustainable agricultural future in smart cities.

Keywords: rooftop rainwater harvesting, organic farming, green water management, food protection, ecological stabilty

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Authors: Levicatus Mugenyi, Joaniter Nankabirwa, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, John Rek, Niel Hens, Moses Kamya, Grant Dorsey

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Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) reduces vector densities and malaria transmission, however, the most effective spraying intervals for IRS have not been well established. We aim to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using a modeling approach. Methods: We use a generalized additive model to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using the predicted malaria incidence. The model is applied to post IRS cohort clinical data from children aged 0.5–10 years in selected households in Tororo, historically a high malaria transmission setting in Uganda. Six rounds of IRS were implemented in Tororo during the study period (3 rounds with bendiocarb: December 2014 to December 2015, and 3 rounds with actellic: June 2016 to July 2018). Results: Monthly incidence of malaria from October 2014 to February 2019 decreased from 3.25 to 0.0 per person-years in the children under 5 years, and 1.57 to 0.0 for 5-10 year-olds. The optimal time interval for IRS differed between bendiocarb and actellic and by IRS round. It was estimated to be 17 and 40 weeks after the first round of bendiocarb and actellic, respectively. After the third round of actellic, 36 weeks was estimated to be optimal. However, we could not estimate from the data the optimal time after the second and third rounds of bendiocarb and after the second round of actellic. Conclusion: We conclude that to sustain the effect of IRS in a high-medium transmission setting, the second rounds of bendiocarb need to be applied roughly 17 weeks and actellic 40 weeks after the first round, and the timing differs for subsequent rounds. The amount of rainfall did not influence the trend in malaria incidence after IRS, as well as the IRS timing intervals. Our results suggest that shorter intervals for the IRS application can be more effective compared to the current practice, which is about 24 weeks for bendiocarb and 48 weeks for actellic. However, when considering our findings, one should account for the cost and drug resistance associated with IRS. We also recommend that the timing and incidence should be monitored in the future to improve these estimates.

Keywords: incidence, indoor residual spraying, generalized additive model, malaria

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Authors: Mohamed Elkashouty, Mohamed Elkammar, Mohamed Gomma, Menal Elminiami

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Lake Bardawil is considered as one of the major morphological features of northern Sinai. It represents the largest fish production lake for export in Egypt. Nineteen and thirty one samples were collected from lake water during winter and summer (2005). TDS, cations, anions, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, Ni, Co and Pb concentrations were measured within winter and summer seasons. During summer, in the eastern sector of the lake, TDS concentration is decreased due northeastern part (38000 ppm), it is attributed to dilution from seawater through Boughaz II. The TDS concentration increased generally in the central and southern parts of the lake (44000 and 42000 ppm, respectively). It is caused by they are far from dilution from seawater, disconnected water body, shallow depth (mean 2 m), and high evaporation rate. In the western sector, the TDS content ranged from low (38000 ppm) in the northeastern part to high (50000 ppm) in the western part. Generally, the TDS concentration in the western sector is higher than those in the eastern. It is attributed to low volume of water body for the former, high evaporation rate, and therefore increase in TDS content in the lake water.During winter season, in the eastern sector, the wind velocity is high which enhance the water current to inflow into the lake through Boughaz I and II. The resultant water lake is diluted by seawater and rainfall in the winter season. The TDS concentration increased due southern part of the lake (42000 ppm) and declined in the northern part (36000 ppm). The concentration of Co, Ni, Pb, Fe, Cd, Zn, Cu, Mn and Pb within winter and summery seasons, in lake water are low, which considered as background concentrations with respect to seawater. Therefore, there are no industrial, agricultural and sanitary wastewaters dump into the lake. This confirms the statement that has been written at the entrance of Lake Bardawil at El-Telool area "Lake Bardawil, one of the purest lakes in the world". It indicate that the Lake Bardawil is excellent area for fish production for export (current state) and is the second main fish source in Egypt after the Mediterranean Sea after the illness of Lake Manzala.

Keywords: lake Bardawil, water quality, major ions, toxic metals

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Authors: Marzieh Khedmati, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt

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Vegetative Filter Strips (VFS) are used for controlling the volume of runoff and decreasing contaminant concentrations in runoff before entering water bodies. Many studies have investigated the role of VFS in sediment and nutrient removal, but little is known about their efficiency for the removal of emerging contaminants such as antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs). Vegetative Filter Strip Modeling System (VFSMOD) was used to simulate the efficiency of VFS in this regard. Several studies demonstrated the ability of VFSMOD to predict reductions in runoff volume and sediment concentration moving through the filters. The objectives of this study were to calibrate the VFSMOD with experimental data and assess the efficiency of the model in simulating the filter behavior in removing ARGs (ermB) and tylosin. The experimental data were obtained from a prior study conducted at the University of Nebraska (UNL) Rogers Memorial Farm. Three treatment factors were tested in the experiments, including manure amendment, narrow grass hedges and rainfall events. Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) was defined as the filter efficiency and the related experimental and model values were compared to each other. The VFS Model generally agreed with the experimental results and as a result, the model was used for predicting filter efficiencies when the runoff data are not available. Narrow Grass Hedges (NGH) were shown to be effective in reducing tylosin and ARGs concentration. The simulation showed that the filter efficiency in removing ARGs is different for different soil types and filter lengths. There is an optimum length for the filter strip that produces minimum runoff volume. Based on the model results increasing the length of the filter by 1-meter leads to higher efficiency but widening beyond that decreases the efficiency. The VFSMOD, which was proved to work well in estimation of VFS trapping efficiency, showed confirming results for ARG removal.

Keywords: antimicrobial resistance genes, emerging contaminants, narrow grass hedges, vegetative filter strips, vegetative filter strip modeling system

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Authors: James Kinyua Gitonga, Toshio Fujimi

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Vulnerability assessment and analysis is essential to solving the degree of damage and loss as a result of natural disasters. Urban flooding causes a major economic loss and casualties, at Mathare residential area in Nairobi, Kenya. High population caused by rural-urban migration, Unemployment, and unplanned urban development are among factors that increase flood vulnerability in Mathare area. This study aims to analyse flood risk physical vulnerabilities in Mathare based on scientific data, research data that includes the Rainfall data, River Mathare discharge rate data, Water runoff data, field survey data and questionnaire survey through sampling of the study area have been used to develop the risk curves. Three structural types of building were identified in the study area, vulnerability and risk curves were made for these three structural types by plotting the relationship between flood depth and damage for each structural type. The results indicate that the structural type with mud wall and mud floor is the most vulnerable building to flooding while the structural type with stone walls and concrete floor is least vulnerable. The vulnerability of building contents is mainly determined by the number of floors, where households with two floors are least vulnerable, and households with a one floor are most vulnerable. Therefore more than 80% of the residential buildings including the property in the building are highly vulnerable to floods consequently exposed to high risk. When estimating the potential casualties/injuries we discovered that the structural types of houses were major determinants where the mud/adobe structural type had casualties of 83.7% while the Masonry structural type had casualties of 10.71% of the people living in these houses. This research concludes that flood awareness, warnings and observing the building codes will enable reduce damage to the structural types of building, deaths and reduce damage to the building contents.

Keywords: flood loss, Mathare Nairobi, risk curve analysis, vulnerability

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Authors: Mohammed Seyam, Faridah Othman, Ahmed El-Shafie

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The early warning of high stream flow events (HSF) and floods is an important aspect in the management of surface water and rivers systems. This process can be performed using either process-based models or data driven-based models such as artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The main goal of this study is to develop efficient AI-based model for predicting the real-time hourly stream flow (Q) and apply it as early warning tool of HSF and floods in the downstream area of the Selangor River basin, taken here as a paradigm of humid tropical rivers in Southeast Asia. The performance of AI-based models has been improved through the integration of the lag time (Lt) estimation in the modelling process. A total of 8753 patterns of Q, water level, and rainfall hourly records representing one-year period (2011) were utilized in the modelling process. Six hydrological scenarios have been arranged through hypothetical cases of input variables to investigate how the changes in RF intensity in upstream stations can lead formation of floods. The initial SF was changed for each scenario in order to include wide range of hydrological situations in this study. The performance evaluation of the developed AI-based model shows that high correlation coefficient (R) between the observed and predicted Q is achieved. The AI-based model has been successfully employed in early warning throughout the advance detection of the hydrological conditions that could lead to formations of floods and HSF, where represented by three levels of severity (i.e., alert, warning, and danger). Based on the results of the scenarios, reaching the danger level in the downstream area required high RF intensity in at least two upstream areas. According to results of applications, it can be concluded that AI-based models are beneficial tools to the local authorities for flood control and awareness.

Keywords: floods, stream flow, hydrological modelling, hydrology, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Titus Y. Ngmenzuma, Cherian. Mathews, Feilx D. Dakora

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In Africa, poor nutrient availability, particularly N and P, coupled with low soil moisture due to erratic rainfall, constitutes the major crop production constraints. Although inorganic fertilizers are an option for meeting crop nutrient requirements for increased grain yield, the high cost and scarcity of inorganic inputs make them inaccessible to resource-poor farmers in Africa. Because crops grown on such nutrient-poor soils are micronutrient deficient, incorporating N₂-fixing legumes into cropping systems can sustainably improve crop yield and nutrient accumulation in the grain. In Africa, groundnut can easily form an effective symbiosis with native soil rhizobia, leading to marked N contribution in cropping systems. In this study, field experiments were conducted at Blesbokfontein in Mpumalanga Province to assess N₂ fixation and N contribution by 30 groundnut varieties during the 2018/2019 planting season using the ¹⁵N natural abundance technique. The results revealed marked differences in shoot dry matter yield, symbiotic N contribution, soil N uptake and grain yield among the groundnut varieties. The percent N derived from fixation ranged from 37 to 44% for varieties ICGV131051 and ICGV13984. The amount of N-fixed ranged from 21 to 58 kg/ha for varieties Chinese and IS-07273, soil N uptake from 31 to 80 kg/ha for varieties IS-07947 and IS-07273, and grain yield from 193 to 393 kg/ha for varieties ICGV15033 and ICGV131096, respectively. Compared to earlier studies on groundnut in South Africa, this study has shown low N₂ fixation and N contribution to the cropping systems, possibly due to environmental factors such as low soil moisture. Because the groundnut varieties differed in their growth, symbiotic performance and grain yield, more field testing is required over a range of differing agro-ecologies to identify genotypes suitable for different cropping environments

Keywords: ¹⁵N natural abundance, percent N derived from fixation, amount of N-fixed, grain yield

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Authors: Benjamin Osei Tutu, Sharon Annison

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On 21^st November, 2016, an outbreak of foodborne illness occurred after a buffet lunch served during a stakeholders’ consultation meeting held in Accra. An investigation was conducted to characterise the affected people, determine the etiologic food, the source of contamination and the etiologic agent and to implement appropriate public health measures to prevent future occurrences. A retrospective cohort study was conducted via telephone interviews, using a structured questionnaire developed from the buffet menu. A case was defined as any person suffering from symptoms of foodborne illness e.g. diarrhoea and/or abdominal cramps after eating food served during the stakeholder consultation meeting in Accra on 21^st November, 2016. The exposure status of all the members of the cohort was assessed by taking the food history of each respondent during the telephone interview. The data obtained was analysed using Epi Info 7. An environmental risk assessment was conducted to ascertain the source of the food contamination. Risks of foodborne infection from the foods eaten were determined using attack rates and odds ratios. Data was obtained from 54 people who consumed food served during the stakeholders’ meeting. Out of this population, 44 people reported with symptoms of food poisoning representing 81.45% (overall attack rate). The peak incubation period was seven hours with a minimum and maximum incubation periods of four and 17 hours, respectively. The commonly reported symptoms were diarrhoea (97.73%, 43/44), vomiting (84.09%, 37/44) and abdominal cramps (75.00%, 33/44). From the incubation period, duration of illness and the symptoms, toxin-mediated food poisoning was suspected. The environmental risk assessment of the implicated catering facility indicated a lack of time/temperature control, inadequate knowledge on food safety among workers and sanitation issues. Limited number of food samples was received for microbiological analysis. Multivariate analysis indicated that illness was significantly associated with the consumption of the snacks served (OR 14.78, P < 0.001). No stool and blood or samples of etiologic food were available for organism isolation; however, the suspected etiologic agent was Staphylococcus aureus or Clostridium perfringens. The outbreak could probably be due to the consumption of unwholesome snack (tuna sandwich or chicken. The contamination and/or growth of the etiologic agent in the snack may be due to the breakdown in cleanliness, time/temperature control and good food handling practices. Training of food handlers in basic food hygiene and safety is recommended.

Keywords: Accra, buffet, conference, C. perfringens, cohort study, food poisoning, gastroenteritis, office workers, Staphylococcus aureus

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Authors: Anuradha Maharaj, Adrian Cashman

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The cross-cutting nature of water as a resource translates into the need for a better understanding of its movement, storage and loss at all points in the hydro-socioeconomic cycle. An integrated approach to addressing the issue of sustainability means quantitatively understanding: the linkages within this cycle, the role of water managers in resource allocation, and the critical factors influencing its scarcity. The Water Evaluation and Planning Tool (WEAP) is an integrative model that combines the catchment-scale hydrologic processes with a water management model, driven by environmental requirements and socioeconomic demands. The concept of demand priorities is included to represent the areas of greatest use within a given catchment. Located on Barbados’ West Coast, Speightstown and the surrounding areas encompass a well-developed tourist, residential and agricultural area. The main water resource for this area, and the rest of the island, is that of groundwater. The availability of groundwater in Barbados may be adversely affected by the projected changes in climate, such as reduced wet season rainfall. Economic development and changing sector priorities together with climate related changes have the potential to affect water resource abundance and by extension the allocation of resources for example in the Speightstown area. In order to investigate the potential impacts on the Speightstown area specifically, a WEAP Model of the study area was developed to estimate the present available water (baseline reference scenario 2000-2010). From this baseline scenario, it is envisioned that an exploration into projected changes in availability in the near term (2035-2045) and medium/long term (2065-2075) time frames will be undertaken. The generated estimations can assist water managers to better evaluate the status of and identify trends in water use and formulate adaptation measures to offset future deficits.

Keywords: water evaluation and planning system (WEAP), water availability, demand and supply, water allocation

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Authors: Semachew M. Kassa, Africa M Geremew, Tezera F. Azmatch, Nandyala Darga Kumar

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Frequency ratio (FR) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods are developed based on past landslide failure points to identify the landslide susceptibility mapping because landslides can seriously harm both the environment and society. However, it is still difficult to select the most efficient method and correctly identify the main driving factors for particular regions. In this study, we used fourteen landslide conditioning factors (LCFs) and five soft computing algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Naïve Bayes (NB), to predict the landslide susceptibility at 12.5 m spatial scale. The performance of the RF (F1-score: 0.88, AUC: 0.94), ANN (F1-score: 0.85, AUC: 0.92), and SVM (F1-score: 0.82, AUC: 0.86) methods was significantly better than the LR (F1-score: 0.75, AUC: 0.76) and NB (F1-score: 0.73, AUC: 0.75) method, according to the classification results based on inventory landslide points. The findings also showed that around 35% of the study region was made up of places with high and very high landslide risk (susceptibility greater than 0.5). The very high-risk locations were primarily found in the western and southeastern regions, and all five models showed good agreement and similar geographic distribution patterns in landslide susceptibility. The towns with the highest landslide risk include Amhara Saint Town's western part, the Northern part, and St. Gebreal Church villages, with mean susceptibility values greater than 0.5. However, rainfall, distance to road, and slope were typically among the top leading factors for most villages. The primary contributing factors to landslide vulnerability were slightly varied for the five models. Decision-makers and policy planners can use the information from our study to make informed decisions and establish policies. It also suggests that various places should take different safeguards to reduce or prevent serious damage from landslide events.

Keywords: artificial neural network, logistic regression, landslide susceptibility, naïve Bayes, random forest, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 59