Search results for: rolling stock reliability

Authors: T. Elrazaz

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This paper examines accrual and real earnings management by publicly listed targets around mergers and acquisitions. Prior literature shows that earnings management around mergers and acquisitions can have a significant economic impact because of the associated wealth transfers among stakeholders. More importantly, acting on behalf of their shareholders or pursuing their self-interests, managers of both targets and acquirers may be equally motivated to manipulate earnings prior to an acquisition to generate higher gains for their shareholders or themselves. Building on the grounds of information asymmetry, agency conflicts, stewardship theory, and the revelation principle, this study addresses the question of whether takeover targets employ accrual and real earnings management in the periods prior to the announcement of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A). Additionally, this study examines whether acquirers are able to detect targets’ earnings management, and in response, adjust the acquisition premium paid in order not to face the risk of overpayment. This study uses an aggregate accruals approach in estimating accrual earnings management as proxied by estimated abnormal accruals. Additionally, real earnings management is proxied for by employing widely used models in accounting and finance literature. The results of this study indicate that takeover targets manipulate their earnings using accruals in the second year with an earnings release prior to the announcement of the M&A. Moreover, in partitioning the sample of targets according to the method of payment used in the deal, the results are restricted only to targets of stock-financed deals. These results are consistent with the argument that targets of cash-only or mixed-payment deals do not have the same strong motivations to manage their earnings as their stock-financed deals counterparts do additionally supporting the findings of prior studies that the method of payment in takeovers is value relevant. The findings of this study also indicate that takeover targets manipulate earnings upwards through cutting discretionary expenses the year prior to the acquisition while they do not do so by manipulating sales or production costs. Moreover, in partitioning the sample of targets according to the method of payment used in the deal, the results are restricted only to targets of stock-financed deals, providing further robustness to the results derived under the accrual-based models. Finally, this study finds evidence suggesting that acquirers are fully aware of the accrual-based techniques employed by takeover targets and can unveil such manipulation practices. These results are robust to alternative accrual and real earnings management proxies, as well as controlling for the method of payment in the deal.

Keywords: accrual earnings management, acquisition premium, real earnings management, takeover targets

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Authors: Pawit Tangviroon, Apichit Svang-Ariyaskul

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As the limited availability of petroleum-based fuel has been a major concern, biodiesel is one of the most attractive alternative fuels because it is renewable and it also has advantages over the conventional petroleum-base diesel. At Present, productions of biodiesel generally perform by transesterification of vegetable oils with low molecular weight alcohol, mainly methanol, using chemical catalysts. Methanol is petrochemical product that makes biodiesel producing from methanol to be not pure renewable energy source. Therefore, ethanol as a product produced by fermentation processes. It appears as a potential feed stock that makes biodiesel to be pure renewable alternative fuel. The research is conducted based on two biodiesel production processes by reacting soybean oils with methanol and ethanol. Life cycle assessment was carried out in order to evaluate the environmental impacts and to identify the process alternative. Nine mid-point impact categories are investigated. The results indicate that better performance on Abiotic Depletion Potential (ADP) and Acidification Potential (AP) are observed in biodiesel production from methanol when compared with biodiesel production from ethanol due to less energy consumption during the production processes. Except for ADP and AP, using methanol as feed stock does not show any advantages over biodiesel from ethanol. The single score method is also included in this study in order to identify the best option between two processes of biodiesel production. The global normalization and weighting factor based on eco-taxes are used and it shows that producing biodiesel form ethanol has less environmental load compare to biodiesel from methanol.

Keywords: biodiesel, ethanol, life cycle assessment, methanol, soybean oil

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Authors: Jung-Ho Moon, Tae Kwon Ha

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In the present study, the effect of Si, Al, Ti, Zr, and Nb addition on the microstructure and hot workability of cast M42 tool steels, basically consisting of 1.0C, 0.2Mn, 3.8Cr, 1.5W, 8.5Co, 9.2Mo, and 1.0V in weight percent has been investigated. Tool steels containing Si of 0.25 and 0.5 wt.%, Al of 0.06 and 0.12 wt.%, Ti of 0.3 wt.%, Zr of 0.3 wt.%, and Nb of 0.3 wt.% were cast into ingots of 140 mm´ 140 mm´ 330 mm by vacuum induction melting. After solution treatment at 1150°C for 1.5 hrs. followed by furnace cooling, hot rolling at 1180 °C was conducted on the ingots. Addition of titanium, zirconium and niobium was found to retard the decomposition of the eutectic carbides and result in the deterioration of hot workability of the tool steels, while addition of aluminium and silicon showed relatively well decomposed carbide structure and resulted in sound hot rolled plates.

Keywords: high speed steels, alloying elements, eutectic carbides, microstructure, hot workability

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Phoutsathaphone Sibounheuang, Phayom Sookaneknun Olson, Chanuttha Ploylearmsang, Santiparp Sookaneknun, Chanthanom Manithip

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Patient satisfaction is an outcome that can be measured and used to improve diabetes care and management. There are limited instruments for assessing patient satisfaction covering the whole process of diabetes management. In this study, the questionnaire was developed with items pooled from a systematic review of qualitative studies of patients’ and healthcare providers’ perspectives in diabetes management. The questionnaire consists of 11 domains with 45 items. The Thai version was translated to Lao and then checked by back-translating it into Thai. We tested the questionnaire on 150 diabetes patients in Thailand and 150 in Lao People Democratic Republic (PDR). Validity was performed by factor analysis and Pearson correlation. Internal consistency reliability was estimated by calculating Cronbach’s alpha. The study was approved by the Mahasarakham University Ethics Committee, and the National Ethics Committee for Health Research, Lao PDR. The Thai and Lao versions showed the construct validity by principal component analysis. This consisted of 11 domains which account for 71.23% of the variance (Thai version) and 71.66% of the variance (Lao version) in the total patient satisfaction scores. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) measures were 0.85 for the Thai version and 0.75 for the Lao version. The Bartlett tests of sphericity of both versions were significant (p < 0.001). The factor loadings of all items in both versions were > 0.40. The convergent validity of the Thai and Lao versions was 93.63% and 79.54% respectively. The discriminant validity for the Thai and Lao versions was 92.68% and 88.68% respectively. Cronbach’s alpha was 0.95 in both versions. The Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire (PSQ) in both versions had acceptable properties. This study has yielded evidence supporting the validity and reliability of both versions.

Keywords: construct validity, diabetes management, patient satisfaction, questionnaire development, reliability

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Authors: Pawel Sowa, Joachim Bargiel, Bogdan Mol, Katarzyna Luszcz

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The article raises the issue of the development of local renewable energy sources and the production of distributed energy in context of improving the reliability of the Polish Power System and the beneficial impact on local and national energy security. The paper refers to the current problems of local governments in the process of investment in the area of distributed energy projects, and discusses the issues of the future role and cooperation within the local power plants and distributed energy. Attention is paid to the local communities the chance to raise their own resources and management of energy fuels (biomass, wind, gas mining) and improving the local energy balance. The material presented takes the issue of the development of the energy potential of municipalities and future cooperation with professional energy. As an example, practical solutions used in one of the communes in Silesia.

Keywords: distributed generation, mini centers energy, renewable energy sources, reliability of supply of rural commune

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Authors: Francesca Marsili

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The reliability assessment of existing structures with probabilistic methods is becoming an increasingly important and frequent engineering task. However probabilistic reliability methods are based on an exhaustive knowledge of the stochastic modeling of the variables involved in the assessment; at the moment standards for the modeling of variables are absent, representing an obstacle to the dissemination of probabilistic methods. The framework according to probability distribution functions (PDFs) are established is represented by the Bayesian statistics, which uses Bayes Theorem: a prior PDF for the considered parameter is established based on information derived from the design stage and qualitative judgments based on the engineer past experience; then, the prior model is updated with the results of investigation carried out on the considered structure, such as material testing, determination of action and structural properties. The application of Bayesian statistics arises two different kind of problems: 1. The results of the updating depend on the engineer previous experience; 2. The updating of the prior PDF can be performed only if the structure has been tested, and quantitative data that can be statistically manipulated have been collected; performing tests is always an expensive and time consuming operation; furthermore, if the considered structure is an ancient building, destructive tests could compromise its cultural value and therefore should be avoided. In order to solve those problems, an interesting research path is represented by investigating Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques that can be useful for the automation of the modeling of variables and for the updating of material parameters without performing destructive tests. Among the others, one that raises particular attention in relation to the object of this study is constituted by Case-Based Reasoning (CBR). In this application, cases will be represented by existing buildings where material tests have already been carried out and an updated PDFs for the material mechanical parameters has been computed through a Bayesian analysis. Then each case will be composed by a qualitative description of the material under assessment and the posterior PDFs that describe its material properties. The problem that will be solved is the definition of PDFs for material parameters involved in the reliability assessment of the considered structure. A CBR system represent a good candi¬date in automating the modelling of variables because: 1. Engineers already draw an estimation of the material properties based on the experience collected during the assessment of similar structures, or based on similar cases collected in literature or in data-bases; 2. Material tests carried out on structure can be easily collected from laboratory database or from literature; 3. The system will provide the user of a reliable probabilistic description of the variables involved in the assessment that will also serve as a tool in support of the engineer’s qualitative judgments. Automated modeling of variables can help in spreading probabilistic reliability assessment of existing buildings in the common engineering practice, and target at the best intervention and further tests on the structure; CBR represents a technique which may help to achieve this.

Keywords: reliability assessment of existing buildings, Bayesian analysis, case-based reasoning, historical structures

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Authors: Belkacem Laimouche

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With the field of artificial intelligence (AI) experiencing exponential growth, fueled by technological advancements that pave the way for increasingly innovative and promising applications, there is an escalating need to develop rigorous methods for assessing their performance in pursuit of transparency and equity. This article proposes a metrology-inspired statistical framework for evaluating bias and explainability in AI systems. Drawing from the principles of metrology, we propose a pioneering approach, using a concrete example, to evaluate the accuracy and precision of AI models, as well as to quantify the sources of measurement uncertainty that can lead to bias in their predictions. Furthermore, we explore a statistical approach for evaluating the explainability of AI systems based on their ability to provide interpretable and transparent explanations of their predictions.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, metrology, measurement uncertainty, prediction error, bias, machine learning algorithms, probabilistic models, interlaboratory comparison, data analysis, data reliability, measurement of bias impact on predictions, improvement of model accuracy and reliability

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Authors: Othmane Zarhali, Cécilia Aubrun, Emmanuel Bacry, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Jean-François Muzy

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The Nested factor model was introduced by Bouchaud and al., where the asset return fluctuations are explained by common factors representing the market economic sectors and residuals (noises) sharing with the factors a common dominant volatility mode in addition to the idiosyncratic mode proper to each residual. This construction infers that the factors-residuals log volatilities are correlated. Here, we consider the case of a single factor where the only dominant common mode is a S-fbm process (introduced by Peng, Bacry and Muzy) with Hurst exponent H around 0.11 and the residuals having in addition to the previous common mode idiosyncratic components with Hurst exponents H around 0. The reason for considering this configuration is twofold: preserve the Nested factor model’s characteristics introduced by Bouchaud and al. and propose a framework through which the stylized fact reported by Peng and al. is reproduced, where it has been observed that the Hurst exponents of stock indices are large as compared to those of individual stocks. In this work, we show that the Log S-fbm Nested factor model’s construction leads to a Hurst exponent of single stocks being the ones of the idiosyncratic volatility modes and the Hurst exponent of the index being the one of the common volatility modes. Furthermore, we propose a statistical procedure to estimate the Hurst factor exponent from the stock returns dynamics together with theoretical guarantees, with good results in the limit where the number of stocks N goes to infinity. Last but not least, we show that the factor can be seen as an index constructed from the single stocks weighted by specific coefficients.

Keywords: hurst exponent, log S-fbm model, nested factor model, small intermittency approximation

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Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

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How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: financial bubble detection, future return, forecasting, pairs trading, preferred stocks

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Authors: Jeonho Moon, Tae Kwon Ha

Abstract:

In the present study, the effect of Si, Al, Ti, Zr, and Nb addition on the microstructure and hot workability of cast M42 tool steels, basically consisting of 1.0 C, 0.2 Mn, 3.8 Cr, 1.5 W, 8.5 Co, 9.2 Mo, and 1.0 V in weight percent has been investigated. Tool steels containing Si of 0.25 and 0.5 wt.%, Al of 0.06 and 0.12 wt.%, Ti of 0.3 wt.%, Zr of 0.3 wt.%, and Nb of 0.3wt.% were cast into ingots of 140 mm x 140 mm x 330 mm by vacuum induction melting. After solution treatment at 1150 °C for 1.5 hr followed by furnace cooling, hot rolling at 1180 °C was conducted on the ingots. Addition of titanium, zirconium and niobium was found to retard the decomposition of the eutectic carbides and result in the deterioration of hot workability of the tool steels, while addition of aluminum and silicon showed relatively well decomposed carbide structure and resulted in sound hot rolled plates.

Keywords: duplex stainless steel, alloying elements, eutectic carbides, microstructure, hot workability

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Authors: Chiranjit Das, Sanjay Jharkharia

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This study is focused on transport mode selection under lead time variability and emissions constraint. In order to reduce the carbon emissions generation due to transportation, organization has often faced a dilemmatic choice of transport mode selection since logistic cost and emissions reduction are complementary with each other. Another important aspect of transportation decision is lead-time variability which is least considered in transport mode selection problem. Thus, in this study, we provide a comprehensive mathematical based analytical model to decide transport mode selection under emissions constraint. We also extend our work through analysing the effect of lead time variability in the transport mode selection by a sensitivity analysis. In order to account lead time variability into the model, two identically normally distributed random variables are incorporated in this study including unit lead time variability and lead time demand variability. Therefore, in this study, we are addressing following questions: How the decisions of transport mode selection will be affected by lead time variability? How lead time variability will impact on total supply chain cost under carbon emissions? To accomplish these objectives, a total transportation cost function is developed including unit purchasing cost, unit transportation cost, emissions cost, holding cost during lead time, and penalty cost for stock out due to lead time variability. A set of modes is available to transport each node, in this paper, we consider only four transport modes such as air, road, rail, and water. Transportation cost, distance, emissions level for each transport mode is considered as deterministic and static in this paper. Each mode is having different emissions level depending on the distance and product characteristics. Emissions cost is indirectly affected by the lead time variability if there is any switching of transport mode from lower emissions prone transport mode to higher emissions prone transport mode in order to reduce penalty cost. We provide a numerical analysis in order to study the effectiveness of the mathematical model. We found that chances of stock out during lead time will be higher due to the higher variability of lead time and lad time demand. Numerical results show that penalty cost of air transport mode is negative that means chances of stock out zero, but, having higher holding and emissions cost. Therefore, air transport mode is only selected when there is any emergency order to reduce penalty cost, otherwise, rail and road transport is the most preferred mode of transportation. Thus, this paper is contributing to the literature by a novel approach to decide transport mode under emissions cost and lead time variability. This model can be extended by studying the effect of lead time variability under some other strategic transportation issues such as modal split option, full truck load strategy, and demand consolidation strategy etc.

Keywords: carbon emissions, inventory theoretic model, lead time variability, transport mode selection

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Authors: F. Iberraken, R. Medjoudj, D. Aissani

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The development of the smart grids concept is built around two separate definitions, namely: The European one oriented towards sustainable development and the American one oriented towards reliability and security of supply. In this paper, we have investigated reliability merits enabling decision-makers to provide a high quality of service. It is based on system behavior using interruptions and failures modeling and forecasting from one hand and on the contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to mitigate catastrophic ones such as blackouts from the other hand. It was found that this concept has been adopted by developing and emerging countries in short and medium terms followed by sustainability concept at long term planning. This work has highlighted the reliability merits such as: Benefits, opportunities, costs and risks considered as consistent units of measuring power customer satisfaction. From the decision making point of view, we have used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to achieve customer satisfaction, based on the reliability merits and the contribution of such energy resources. Certainly nowadays, fossil and nuclear ones are dominating energy production but great advances are already made to jump into cleaner ones. It was demonstrated that theses resources are not only environmentally but also economically and socially sustainable. The paper is organized as follows: Section one is devoted to the introduction, where an implicit review of smart grids development is given for the two main concepts (for USA and Europeans countries). The AHP method and the BOCR developments of reliability merits against power customer satisfaction are developed in section two. The benefits where expressed by the high level of availability, maintenance actions applicability and power quality. Opportunities were highlighted by the implementation of ICT in data transfer and processing, the mastering of peak demand control, the decentralization of the production and the power system management in default conditions. Costs were evaluated using cost-benefit analysis, including the investment expenditures in network security, becoming a target to hackers and terrorists, and the profits of operating as decentralized systems, with a reduced energy not supplied, thanks to the availability of storage units issued from renewable resources and to the current power lines (CPL) enabling the power dispatcher to manage optimally the load shedding. For risks, we have razed the adhesion of citizens to contribute financially to the system and to the utility restructuring. What is the degree of their agreement compared to the guarantees proposed by the managers about the information integrity? From technical point of view, have they sufficient information and knowledge to meet a smart home and a smart system? In section three, an application of AHP method is made to achieve power customer satisfaction based on the main energy resources as alternatives, using knowledge issued from a country that has a great advance in energy mutation. Results and discussions are given in section four. It was given us to conclude that the option to a given resource depends on the attitude of the decision maker (prudent, optimistic or pessimistic), and that status quo is neither sustainable nor satisfactory.

Keywords: reliability, AHP, renewable energy resources, smart grids

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Authors: Rosana Choy, Fabiola Henostroza

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Actual theory suggests social-ecological factors as the main framework of bullying. Most previous research in this phenomenon is focused on the identification of bullying attitudes and conducts in puberty and adolescence periods. For this reason, this study is considered as a contribution to the existing knowledge in measuring matters, because of its non-traditional way of evaluation (graphic items), and because of its approach to a distinctive age group, children from 7 to 9 years-old, not regularly examined in current studies in this field. The research used a transversal descriptive investigation design for the development of a graphic test for bullying predisposition. The process began with the operationalization of the variable bullying predisposition, the structuring of the factors and variable indicators of a pilot instrument, evaluation by experts of the items representation, and finally it continued with the test application to children of two types of regular school population in Lima-Peru: private and public schools. The reliability level was 0.85 and the validity of the test corroborated the three-factor structure proposed by the researchers.

Keywords: bullying, graphic test, reliability, validity

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Authors: Sony Baral, Harald Vacik

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This study analyzes the sustainability of community forest management in two community forests in Terai and Hills of Nepal, representing four forest types: 1) Shorearobusta, 2) Terai hardwood, 3) Schima-Castanopsis, and 4) other Hills. The sustainability goals for this region include maintaining and enhancing the forest stocks. Considering this, we analysed changes in species composition, stand density, growing stock volume, and growth-to-removal ratio at 3-5 year intervals from 2005-2016 within 109 permanent forest plots (57 in the Terai and 52 in the Hills). To complement inventory data, forest users, forest committee members, and forest officials were consulted. The results indicate that the relative representation of economically valuable tree species has increased. Based on trends in stand density, both forests are being sustainably managed. Pole-sized trees dominated the diameter distribution, however, with a limited number of mature trees and declined regeneration. The forests were over-harvested until 2013 but under-harvested in the recent period in the Hills. In contrast, both forest types were under-harvested throughout the inventory period in the Terai. We found that the ecological dimension of sustainable forest management is strongly achieved while the economic dimension is lacking behind the current potential. Thus, we conclude that maintaining a large number of trees in the forest does not necessarily ensure both ecological and economical sustainability. Instead, priority should be given on a rational estimation of the annual harvest rates to enhance forest resource conditions together with regular benefits to the local communities.

Keywords: community forests, diversity, growing stock, forest management, sustainability, nepal

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Authors: F. A. Thomas, M. Schrafl-Altermatt, R. Treier, S. Kaufmann

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Stroke is the main cause of adult disability. Especially upper limb function is affected in most patients. Recently, cooperative hand movements have been shown to be a promising type of upper limb training in stroke rehabilitation. In these movements, which are frequently found in activities of daily living (e.g. opening a bottle, winding up a blind), the force of one upper limb has to be equally counteracted by the other limb to successfully accomplish a task. The use of standardized and reliable clinical assessments is essential to evaluate the efficacy of therapy and the functional outcome of a patient. Many assessments for upper limb function or impairment are available. However, the evaluation of cooperative hand movement tasks are rarely included in those. Thus, the aim of this study was (i) to develop a novel clinical assessment (CASA - Cooperative Activity Stroke Assessment) for the evaluation of patients’ capacity to perform cooperative hand movements and (ii) to test its inter- and interrater reliability. Furthermore, CASA scores were compared to current gold standard assessments for upper extremity in stroke patients (i.e. Fugl-Meyer Assessment, Box & Blocks Test). The CASA consists of five cooperative activities of daily living including (1) opening a jar, (2) opening a bottle, (3) open and closing of a zip, (4) unscrew a nut and (5) opening a clipbox. Here, the goal is to accomplish the tasks as fast as possible. In addition to the quantitative rating (i.e. time) which is converted to a 7-point scale, also the quality of the movement is rated in a 4-point scale. To test the reliability of CASA, fifteen stroke subjects were tested within a week twice by the same two raters. Intra-and interrater reliability was calculated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for total CASA score and single items. Furthermore, Pearson-correlation was used to compare the CASA scores to the scores of Fugl-Meyer upper limb assessment and the box and blocks test, which were assessed in every patient additionally to the CASA. ICC scores of the total CASA score indicated an excellent- and single items established a good to excellent inter- and interrater reliability. Furthermore, the CASA score was significantly correlated to the Fugl-Meyer and Box & Blocks score. The CASA provides a reliable assessment for cooperative hand movements which are crucial for many activities of daily living. Due to its non-costly setup, easy and fast implementation, we suggest it to be well suitable for clinical application. In conclusion, the CASA is a useful tool in assessing the functional status and therapy related recovery in cooperative hand movement capacity in stroke patients.

Keywords: activitites of daily living, clinical assessment, cooperative hand movements, reliability, stroke

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Authors: Prateep Wajeetongratana

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The objective of this research is to examine the effects of internal audit innovation on firm performance effectiveness influences of financial report reliability, organizational process improvement, and risk management effectiveness. This paper drew upon the survey data collected from 400 employees survey conducted at Nonthaburi province, Thailand. The statistics utilized in this paper included percentage, mean, standard deviation, and regression analysis. The findings revealed that the majority of samples were between 31-40 years old, married, held an undergraduate degree, and had an average income between 10,000-15,000 baht. And also the results show that auditing integration has only influence on financial report reliability. Moreover, corporate risk evaluation has effect on firm performance by risk management effectiveness and control self-assessment has effect influence on firm performance by organizational process improvement and risk management effectiveness as well.

Keywords: corporate risk evaluation, firm performance effectiveness, internal audit innovation, marketing management

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Authors: Rishindra M. Sarviya, Ashish Agrawal

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Solar energy is available abundantly in the world, but it is not continuous and its intensity also varies with time. Due to above reason the acceptability and reliability of solar based thermal system is lower than conventional systems. A properly designed heat storage system increases the reliability of solar thermal systems by bridging the gap between the energy demand and availability. In the present work, two dimensional numerical simulation of the melting of heat storage material is presented in the horizontal annulus of double pipe latent heat storage system. Longitudinal fins were used as a thermal conductivity enhancement. Paraffin wax was used as a heat-storage or phase change material (PCM). Constant wall temperature is applied to heat transfer tube. Presented two-dimensional numerical analysis shows the movement of melting front in the finned cylindrical annulus for analyzing the thermal behavior of the system during melting.

Keywords: latent heat, numerical study, phase change material, solar energy

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Authors: Lucile Soudani, Hervé Illy, Rémi Bouchié

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Mould growth in living environments has been widely reported for decades all throughout the world. A higher level of moisture in housings can lead to building degradation, chemical component emissions from construction materials as well as enhancing mould growth within the envelope elements or on the internal surfaces. Moreover, a significant number of studies have highlighted the link between mould presence and the prevalence of respiratory diseases. In recent years, the proportion of biobased materials used in construction has been increasing, as seen as an effective lever to reduce the environmental impact of the building sector. Besides, bio-based materials are also hygroscopic materials: when in contact with the wet air of a surrounding environment, their porous structures enable a better capture of water molecules, thus providing a more suitable background for mould growth. Many studies have been conducted to develop reliable models to be able to predict mould appearance, growth, and decay over many building materials and external exposures. Some of them require information about temperature and/or relative humidity, exposure times, material sensitivities, etc. Nevertheless, several studies have highlighted a large disparity between predictions and actual mould growth in experimental settings as well as in occupied buildings. The difficulty of considering the influence of all parameters appears to be the most challenging issue. As many complex phenomena take place simultaneously, a preliminary study has been carried out to evaluate the feasibility to sadopt a reliability approach rather than a deterministic approach. Both epistemic and random uncertainties were identified specifically for the prediction of mould appearance and growth. Several studies published in the literature were selected and analysed, from the agri-food or automotive sectors, as the deployed methodology appeared promising.

Keywords: bio-based materials, mould growth, numerical prediction, reliability approach

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Authors: Hadi Mousavi, Majid Davoudi Nasr

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Executives can maximize profits by recognizing the factors that affect investment and using them to obtain the optimal level of investment. Inefficient markets have shortcomings that can impact the optimal level of investment, leading to the process of over-investment or under-investment. In the present study, the relationship between the overconfidence of senior managers and abnormal cash fluctuations with respect to financial flexibility in companies listed in the Tehran stock exchange from 2009 to 2013 were evaluated. In this study, the sample consists of 84 companies selected by a systematic elimination method and 420 year-companies in total. In this research, EVIEWS software was used to test the research hypotheses by linear regression and correlation coefficient and after designing and testing the research hypothesis. After designing and testing research hypotheses that have been used to each hypothesis, it was concluded that there was a significant relationship between the overconfidence of senior managers and abnormal cash fluctuations, and this relationship was not significant at any level of financial flexibility. Moreover, the findings of the research showed that there was a significant relationship between senior manager’s overconfidence and positive abnormal cash flow fluctuations in firms, and this relationship is significant only at the level of companies with high financial flexibility. Finally, the results indicate that there is no significant relationship between senior managers 'overconfidence and negative cash flow abnormalities, and the relationship between senior managers' overconfidence and negative cash flow fluctuations at the level of companies with high financial flexibility was confirmed.

Keywords: abnormal cash fluctuations, overconfidence of senior managers, financial flexibility, accounting

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Authors: Anastasia Sorokina

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Self-reported language proficiency measures have been widely used by researchers and have been proven to be an accurate tool to assess actual language proficiency. L1 attrition researchers also rely on self-reported measures. More specifically, can-do-scales has gained popularity in the discipline of L1 attrition research. The can-do-scales usually contain statements about language (e.g., “I can write e-mails”); participants are asked to rate each statement on a scale from 1 (I cannot do it at all) to 5 (I can do it without any difficulties). Despite its popularity, no studies have examined can-do-scales’ reliability at measuring the actual level of L1 attrition. Do can-do-scales positively correlate with lexical diversity, syntactic complexity, and fluency? The present study analyzed speech samples of 35 Russian-English attriters to examine whether their self-reported proficiency correlates with their actual L1 proficiency. The results of Pearson correlation demonstrated that can-do-scales correlated with lexical diversity, syntactic complexity, and fluency. These findings provide a valuable contribution to the L1 attrition research by demonstrating that can-do-scales can be used as a reliable tool to measure L1 attrition.

Keywords: L1 attrition, can-do-scales, lexical diversity, syntactic complexity

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Authors: Chua Bee Seok, Getrude Cosmas, Jasmine Adela Mutang, Shazia Iqbal Hashmi

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The aims of this study were to determine the factor structure and psychometric properties (i.e., reliability and convergent validity) of the employees trust scale, a newly created instrument by the researchers. The employees trust scale initially contained 82 items to measure employee’s trust toward their supervisors. A sample of 818 (343 females, 449 males) employees were selected randomly from public and private organization sectors in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia. Their ages ranged from 19 to 67 years old with the mean of 34.55 years old. Their average tenure with their current employer was 11.2 years (s.d. = 7.5 years). The respondents were asked to complete the employees trust scale, as well as a managerial trust questionnaire from Mishra. The exploratory factor analysis on employee’s trust toward their supervisor’s extracted three factors, labeled 'trustworthiness' (32 items), 'position status' (11 items) and 'relationship' (6 items) which accounted for 62.49% of the total variance. Trustworthiness factors were re-categorized into three sub factors: competency (11 items), benevolence (8 items) and integrity (13 items). All factors and sub factors of the scales demonstrated clear reliability with internal consistency of Cronbach’s Alpha above 0.85. The convergent validity of the Scale was supported by an expected pattern of correlations (positive and significant correlation) between the score of all factors and sub factors of the scale and the score on the managerial trust questionnaire which measured the same construct. The convergent validity of employees trust scale was further supported by the significant and positive inter correlation between the factors and sub factors of the scale. The results suggest that the employees trust scale is a reliable and valid measure. However, further studies need to be carried out in other groups of sample as to further validate the Scale.

Keywords: employees trust scale, psychometric properties, trustworthiness, position status, relationship

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Authors: John K. Avor, Choong-Koo Chang

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The transfer of electrical loads at power generation stations from Standby Auxiliary Transformer (SAT) to Unit Auxiliary Transformer (UAT) and vice versa is through a fast bus transfer scheme. Fast bus transfer is a time-critical application where the transfer process depends on various parameters, thus transfer schemes apply advance algorithms to ensure power supply reliability and continuity. In a nuclear power generation station, supply continuity is essential, especially for critical class 1E electrical loads. Bus transfers must, therefore, be executed accurately within 4 to 10 cycles in order to achieve safety system requirements. However, the main problem is that there are instances where transfer schemes scrambled due to inaccurate interpretation of key parameters; and consequently, have failed to transfer several critical loads from UAT to the SAT during main generator trip event. Although several techniques have been adopted to develop robust transfer schemes, a combination of Artificial Neural Network and Fuzzy Systems (Neuro-Fuzzy) has not been extensively used. In this paper, we apply the concept of Neuro-Fuzzy to determine plant operating mode and dynamic prediction of the appropriate bus transfer algorithm to be selected based on the first cycle of voltage information. The performance of Sequential Fast Transfer and Residual Bus Transfer schemes was evaluated through simulation and integration of the Neuro-Fuzzy system. The objective for adopting Neuro-Fuzzy approach in the bus transfer scheme is to utilize the signal validation capabilities of artificial neural network, specifically the back-propagation algorithm which is very accurate in learning completely new systems. This research presents a combined effect of artificial neural network and fuzzy systems to accurately interpret key bus transfer parameters such as magnitude of the residual voltage, decay time, and the associated phase angle of the residual voltage in order to determine the possibility of high speed bus transfer for a particular bus and the corresponding transfer algorithm. This demonstrates potential for general applicability to improve reliability of the auxiliary power distribution system. The performance of the scheme is implemented on APR1400 nuclear power plant auxiliary system.

Keywords: auxiliary power system, bus transfer scheme, fuzzy logic, neural networks, reliability

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Authors: Parampal Kaur, Deepak Aggarwal

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In the computational Grid, fault tolerance is an imperative issue to be considered during job scheduling. Due to the widespread use of resources, systems are highly prone to errors and failures. Hence, fault tolerance plays a key role in the grid to avoid the problem of unreliability. Scheduling the task to the appropriate resource is a vital requirement in computational Grid. The fittest resource scheduling algorithm searches for the appropriate resource based on the job requirements, in contrary to the general scheduling algorithms where jobs are scheduled to the resources with best performance factor. The proposed method is to improve the fault tolerance of the fittest resource scheduling algorithm by scheduling the job in coordination with job replication when the resource has low reliability. Based on the reliability index of the resource, the resource is identified as critical. The tasks are scheduled based on the criticality of the resources. Results show that the execution time of the tasks is comparatively reduced with the proposed algorithm using real-time approach rather than a simulator.

Keywords: computational grid, fault tolerance, task replication, job scheduling

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Authors: Youn-Sung Kim, Mi-Sung Kim, Jae-Kun Lee

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This paper deals with the accelerated life cycle test method of the motor for home appliances that demand high reliability. Life Cycle of parts in home appliances also should be 10 years because life cycle of the home appliances such as washing machine, refrigerator, TV is at least 10 years. In case of washing machine, the life cycle test method of motor is advanced for 3000 cycle test (1cycle = 2hours). However, 3000 cycle test incurs loss for the time and cost. Objectives of this study are to reduce the life cycle test time and the number of test samples, which could be realized by using acceleration factor for the test time and reduction factor for the number of sample.

Keywords: accelerated life cycle test, motor reliability test, motor for washing machine, BLDC motor

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Authors: Ernest Nweke

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Mongolia has made giant strides in the development of its auditing and accounting system from Soviet-style to a market-oriented system. High levels of domestic and foreign investment desired by the Mongolian government require that better and improved quality of corporate information and disclosure consistent with international standards be made available to investors. However, the Mongolian Certified Public Accountants (CPA) profession is still developing, and the quality of services provided by accounting firms in most cases do not comply with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) framework approved by the government for use in financial reporting. Against this backdrop, Accounting and audit reforms, liberalization and deregulation, establishment of an efficient and effective professional monitoring and supervision regime are policy necessities. These will further enhance the Mongolian business environment, eliminate incompetence in the system, make the economy more attractive to investors and ultimately lift reporting standards and bring about improved accounting, auditing and disclosure practices among Mongolian firms. This paper examines the fundamental issues in the accounting and auditing environment in Mongolia and investigates the relationship between selected characteristics of Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE) listed firms (profitability, leverage, firm size, firm auditor size, firm listing age, board size and proportion of independent directors) and voluntary accounting disclosures in their annual reports and accounts. The selected sample of firms for the research purpose consists of the top 20 indexes of the MSE, representing over 95% of the market capitalization. An empirical analysis of the hypothesized relationship was carried out using multiple regression in EViews analytical software. Research results lend credence to the fact that only a few of the company attributes positively impact voluntary accounting disclosures in Mongolian Stock Exchange-listed firms. The research is motivated by the absence of empirical evidence on the correlation between the quality of voluntary accounting disclosures made by listed companies in Mongolia and company characteristics and the findings thereof significantly useful to both firms and regulatory authorities. The concluding part of the paper precisely consists of useful research-based recommendations for listed firms and regulatory agencies on measures to put in place in order to enhance the quality of corporate financial reporting and disclosures in Mongolia.

Keywords: accounting, auditing, corporate disclosure, listed firms

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Authors: Gen Sakoda, Hideki Takayasu, Misako Takayasu

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Waste reduction is a fundamental problem for sustainability. Methods for waste reduction with point-of-sales (POS) data are proposed, utilizing the knowledge of a recent econophysics study on a statistical property of POS data. Concretely, the non-stationary time series analysis method based on the Particle Filter is developed, which considers abnormal fluctuation scaling known as Taylor's law. This method is extended for handling incomplete sales data because of stock-outs by introducing maximum likelihood estimation for censored data. The way for optimal stock determination with pricing the cost of waste reduction is also proposed. This study focuses on the examination of the methods for large sales numbers where Taylor's law is obvious. Numerical analysis using aggregated POS data shows the effectiveness of the methods to reduce food waste maintaining a high profit for large sales numbers. Moreover, the way of pricing the cost of waste reduction reveals that a small profit loss realizes substantial waste reduction, especially in the case that the proportionality constant  of Taylor’s law is small. Specifically, around 1% profit loss realizes half disposal at =0.12, which is the actual  value of processed food items used in this research. The methods provide practical and effective solutions for waste reduction keeping a high profit, especially with large sales numbers.

Keywords: food waste reduction, particle filter, point-of-sales, sustainable development goals, Taylor's law, time series analysis

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Authors: Ji Chan Kim, Seok Hong Min, Tae Kwon Ha

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The effect of Yttrium addition on the microstructure and mechanical properties of Sn-Zn eutectic alloy, which has been attracting intensive focus as a Pb-free solder material, was investigated in this study. Phase equilibrium has been calculated by using FactSage® to evaluate the composition and fraction of equilibrium intermetallic compounds and construct a phase diagram. In the case of Sn-8.8 Zn eutectic alloy, the as-cast microstructure was typical lamellar. With addition of 0.25 wt. %Y, a large amount of pro-eutectic phases have been observed and various YZnx intermetallic compounds were expected to successively form during cooling. Hardness of Sn-8.8 Zn alloy was not affected by Y-addition and both alloys could be rolled by 90% at room temperature.

Keywords: lead-free solder, zn-al-sn alloy, phase equilibrium, rolling, microstructure, hardness

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Authors: Chang-Jen Lan

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Current Level of Service (LOS) index adopted in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for signalized intersections on surface streets is based on the intersection average delay. The delay thresholds for defining LOS grades are subjective and is unrelated to critical traffic condition. For example, an intersection delay of 80 sec per vehicle for failing LOS grade F does not necessarily correspond to the intersection capacity. Also, a specific measure of average delay may result from delay minimization, delay equality, or other meaningful optimization criteria. To that end, a reliability version of the intersection critical degree of saturation (v/c) as the LOS index is introduced. Traditionally, the level of saturation at a signalized intersection is defined as the ratio of critical volume sum (per lane) to the average saturation flow (per lane) during all available effective green time within a cycle. The critical sum is the sum of the maximal conflicting movement-pair volumes in northbound-southbound and eastbound/westbound right of ways. In this study, both movement volume and saturation flow are assumed log-normal distributions. Because, when the conditions of central limit theorem obtain, multiplication of the independent, positive random variables tends to result in a log-normal distributed outcome in the limit, the critical degree of saturation is expected to be a log-normal distribution as well. Derivation of the risk index predictive limits is complex due to the maximum and absolute value operators, as well as the ratio of random variables. A fairly accurate functional form for the predictive limit at a user-specified significant level is yielded. The predictive limit is then compared with the designated LOS thresholds for the intersection critical degree of saturation (denoted as X

Keywords: reliability analysis, level of service, intersection critical degree of saturation, risk based index

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Authors: Seyed Hamed Mousavi, Juha M. Hijmans, Reza Rajabi, Ron Diercks, Johannes Zwerver, Henk van der Worp

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Introduction: Running is one of the most popular sports activity among people. Improper sagittal plane ankle, knee and hip kinematics are considered to be associated with the increase of injury risk in runners. Motion assessing smart-phone applications are increasingly used to measure kinematics both in the field and laboratory setting, as they are cheaper, more portable, accessible, and easier to use relative to 3D motion analysis system. The aims of this study are 1) to compare the results of 3D gait analysis system and CE; 2) to evaluate the test-retest and intra-rater reliability of coach’s eye (CE) app for the sagittal plane hip, knee, and ankle angles in the touchdown and toe-off while running. Method: Twenty subjects participated in this study. Sixteen reflective markers and cluster markers were attached to the subject’s body. Subjects were asked to run at a self-selected speed on a treadmill. Twenty-five seconds of running were collected for analyzing kinematics of interest. To measure sagittal plane hip, knee and ankle joint angles at touchdown (TD) and toe off (TO), the mean of first ten acceptable consecutive strides was calculated for each angle. A smartphone (Samsung Note5, android) was placed on the right side of the subject so that whole body was simultaneously filmed with 3D gait system during running. All subjects repeated the task with the same running speed after a short interval of 5 minutes in between. The CE app, installed on the smartphone, was used to measure the sagittal plane hip, knee and ankle joint angles at touchdown and toe off the stance phase. Results: Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to assess test-retest and intra-rater reliability. To analyze the agreement between 3D and 2D outcomes, the Bland and Altman plot was used. The values of ICC were for Ankle at TD (TRR=0.8,IRR=0.94), ankle at TO (TRR=0.9,IRR=0.97), knee at TD (TRR=0.78,IRR=0.98), knee at TO (TRR=0.9,IRR=0.96), hip at TD (TRR=0.75,IRR=0.97), hip at TO (TRR=0.87,IRR=0.98). The Bland and Altman plots displaying a mean difference (MD) and ±2 standard deviation of MD (2SDMD) of 3D and 2D outcomes were for Ankle at TD (MD=3.71,+2SDMD=8.19, -2SDMD=-0.77), ankle at TO (MD=-1.27, +2SDMD=6.22, -2SDMD=-8.76), knee at TD (MD=1.48, +2SDMD=8.21, -2SDMD=-5.25), knee at TO (MD=-6.63, +2SDMD=3.94, -2SDMD=-17.19), hip at TD (MD=1.51, +2SDMD=9.05, -2SDMD=-6.03), hip at TO (MD=-0.18, +2SDMD=12.22, -2SDMD=-12.59). Discussion: The ability that the measurements are accurately reproduced is valuable in the performance and clinical assessment of outcomes of joint angles. The results of this study showed that the intra-rater and test-retest reliability of CE app for all kinematics measured are excellent (ICC ≥ 0.75). The Bland and Altman plots display that there are high differences of values for ankle at TD and knee at TO. Measuring ankle at TD by 2D gait analysis depends on the plane of movement. Since ankle at TD mostly occurs in the none-sagittal plane, the measurements can be different as foot progression angle at TD increases during running. The difference in values of the knee at TD can depend on how 3D and the rater detect the TO during the stance phase of running.

Keywords: reliability, running, sagittal plane, two dimensional

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Authors: H. Mousavi, M. Sharifi, H. Pourvaziri

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Redundancy Allocation Problem (RAP) is a well-known mathematical problem for modeling series-parallel systems. It is a combinatorial optimization problem which focuses on determining an optimal assignment of components in a system design. In this paper, to be more practical, we have considered the problem of redundancy allocation of series system with interval valued reliability of components. Therefore, during the search process, the reliabilities of the components are considered as a stochastic variable with a lower and upper bounds. In order to optimize the problem, we proposed a simulated annealing based on cloud theory (CBSAA). Also, the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is embedded to the CBSAA to handle the random variable components’ reliability. This novel approach has been investigated by numerical examples and the experimental results have shown that the CBSAA combining MCS is an efficient tool to solve the RAP of systems with interval-valued component reliabilities.

Keywords: redundancy allocation problem, simulated annealing, cloud theory, monte carlo simulation

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