Search results for: discrete phase modeling
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 8463

Search results for: discrete phase modeling

1593 Comparison of Cervical Length Using Transvaginal Ultrasonography and Bishop Score to Predict Succesful Induction

Authors: Lubena Achmad, Herman Kristanto, Julian Dewantiningrum

Abstract:

Background: The Bishop score is a standard method used to predict the success of induction. This examination tends to be subjective with high inter and intraobserver variability, so it was presumed to have a low predictive value in terms of the outcome of labor induction. Cervical length measurement using transvaginal ultrasound is considered to be more objective to assess the cervical length. Meanwhile, this examination is not a complicated procedure and less invasive than vaginal touché. Objective: To compare transvaginal ultrasound and Bishop score in predicting successful induction. Methods: This study was a prospective cohort study. One hundred and twenty women with singleton pregnancies undergoing induction of labor at 37 – 42 weeks and met inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled in this study. Cervical assessment by both transvaginal ultrasound and Bishop score were conducted prior induction. The success of labor induction was defined as an ability to achieve active phase ≤ 12 hours after induction. To figure out the best cut-off point of cervical length and Bishop score, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine which factors best-predicted induction success. Results: This study showed significant differences in terms of age, premature rupture of the membrane, the Bishop score, cervical length and funneling as significant predictors of successful induction. Using ROC curves found that the best cut-off point for prediction of successful induction was 25.45 mm for cervical length and 3 for Bishop score. Logistic regression was performed and showed only premature rupture of membranes and cervical length ≤ 25.45 that significantly predicted the success of labor induction. By excluding premature rupture of the membrane as the indication of induction, cervical length less than 25.3 mm was a better predictor of successful induction. Conclusion: Compared to Bishop score, cervical length using transvaginal ultrasound was a better predictor of successful induction.

Keywords: Bishop Score, cervical length, induction, successful induction, transvaginal sonography

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1592 Kenaf MDF Panels with Soy Based Adhesive. The Influence of Preparation Parameters on Physciomechanical Properties

Authors: Imtiaz Ali, Krishnan Jayaraman, Debes Bhattacharyya

Abstract:

Soybean concentrate is abundant material and renewable product that is recently been explored as an alternative to conventional formaldehyde based resins in wood based products. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the technical feasibility of manufacturing environment friendly MDF panels from renewable resources. The panels are made by using kenaf bast fibers (KB) as wood substitute and soy based adhesive as bonding material. Second order response surface regression models are used to understand the effects and interactions of resin content (RC) and pressing time (PT) on the mechanical and water soaking properties of kenaf panels. The mechanical and water soaking properties are significantly improved as the RC increased and reached at the highest level at maximum resin loading (12%). The effect of pressing time is significant in the first phase when the pressing time increased from 4 to 6 min; however the effect was not as significant when pressing time further increased to 8 min. The second order regression equations further confirm that the variation in process parameters has strong relationship with the physciomechanical properties. The MDF panels the minimum requirements of internal bond strength, modulus of rupture and modulus of elasticity as recommended by US wood MDF standard specifications for G110, G120, G130 and G140 grade MDF panels. However, the thickness swelling results are considerably poorer than the recommended values of general purpose standard requirements. This deficiency can be counterbalanced by the advantage of being formaldehyde free panels made from renewable sources and by making them suitable alternative for less humid environment applications.

Keywords: kenaf, Medium density fibreboard, soy adhesive, mechanical properties, water soaking properties

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1591 Maintaining Experimental Consistency in Geomechanical Studies of Methane Hydrate Bearing Soils

Authors: Lior Rake, Shmulik Pinkert

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Methane hydrate has been found in significant quantities in soils offshore within continental margins and in permafrost within arctic regions where low temperature and high pressure are present. The mechanical parameters for geotechnical engineering are commonly evaluated in geomechanical laboratories adapted to simulate the environmental conditions of methane hydrate-bearing sediments (MHBS). Due to the complexity and high cost of natural MHBS sampling, most laboratory investigations are conducted on artificially formed samples. MHBS artificial samples can be formed using different hydrate formation methods in the laboratory, where methane gas and water are supplied into the soil pore space under the methane hydrate phase conditions. The most commonly used formation method is the excess gas method which is considered a relatively simple, time-saving, and repeatable testing method. However, there are several differences in the procedures and techniques used to produce the hydrate using the excess gas method. As a result of the difference between the test facilities and the experimental approaches that were carried out in previous studies, different measurement criteria and analyses were proposed for MHBS geomechanics. The lack of uniformity among the various experimental investigations may adversely impact the reliability of integrating different data sets for unified mechanical model development. In this work, we address some fundamental aspects relevant to reliable MHBS geomechanical investigations, such as hydrate homogeneity in the sample, the hydrate formation duration criterion, the hydrate-saturation evaluation method, and the effect of temperature measurement accuracy. Finally, a set of recommendations for repeatable and reliable MHBS formation will be suggested for future standardization of MHBS geomechanical investigation.

Keywords: experimental study, laboratory investigation, excess gas, hydrate formation, standardization, methane hydrate-bearing sediment

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1590 Azaridachta indica (Neem) Seed Oil Effect in Experimental Arthritis: Biochemical Parameters Assessment

Authors: Sasan Khademnematolahi, Kevine Kamga Silihe, Katarína Pružinská, Martina Chrastina, Elisabeth Louise Ndjengue Mindang, František Dráfi, Katarína Bauerová

Abstract:

Background: In ethnomedicine, plant parts and compounds are traditionally utilized to treat many disorders. Azadirachta indica, known as Neem, has been traditionally used in medicinal practices. Due to the presence of bioactive substances such as nimbolide, azadirachtin, and gedunin, Neem offers a variety of medicinal properties, including anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties. Through its effect on pathological inflammatory processes, supplementation with it could alleviate the symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods: This research aimed to assess Neem seed oil's impact on rats with adjuvant arthritis. Three doses in monotherapy and two in combination with methotrexate (MTX) have been studied, and their effect was compared. Neem p.o. doses of 100, 200, and 300 mg/kg and MTX p.o. doses of 0.3 mg/kg were examined. After clinical parameters assessment, biochemical analysis was performed in plasma. Results: During the acute phase of the experimental arthritis (Day21), levels of MMP-9, MCP-1, and cytokines IL-1beta and IL-17A were measured. The positive results of inflammatory mediators evaluation in plasma encourage additional analysis also in related tissues to prove if Neem seed oil can be used as an adjuvant therapy for RA. Conclusion: In this study, the combination therapy of Neem with MTX was the most effective of all therapies investigated. Acknowledgement: SAIA PROJECT of Kevine Kamga Silihe, Slovakia-Cameroon 2023: “The effect of Crocus sativus L (Saffron), Azadirachta indica (Neem) and their main bioactives compounds in combinatory treatment with methotrexate on experimental arthritis”, VEGA 2/0079/24, VEGA 2/0136/20, VEGA 2/0126/23 and VEGA 2/0091/23.

Keywords: adjuvant, Neem, methotrexate, arthritis

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1589 An Analysis of Prefabricated Construction Waste: A Case Study Approach

Authors: H. Hakim, C. Kibert, C. Fabre, S. Monadizadeh

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Construction industry is an industry saddled with chronic problems of high waste generation. Waste management that is to ensure materials are utilized in an efficient manner would make a major contribution to mitigating the negative environmental impacts of construction waste including finite resources depletion and growing occupied landfill areas to name a few. Furthermore, ‘material resource efficiency’ has been found an economically smart approach specially when considered during the design phase. One effective strategy is to utilizing off-site construction process which includes a series of prefabricated systems such as mobile, modular, and HUD construction (Department of Housing and Urban Development manufactured buildings). These types of buildings are by nature material and resource-efficient. Despite conventional construction that is exposed to adverse weather conditions, manufactured construction production line is capable of creating repetitive units in a factory controlled environment. A factory can have several parallel projects underway with a high speed and in a timely manner which simplifies the storage of excess materials and re-allocating to the next projects. The literature reports that prefabricated construction significantly helps reduce errors, site theft, rework, and delayed problems and can ultimately lead to a considerable waste reduction. However, there is not sufficient data to quantify this reduction when it comes to a regular modular house in the U.S. Therefore, this manuscript aims to provide an analysis of waste originated from a manufactured factory trend. The analysis was made possible with several visits and data collection of Homes of Merits, a Florida Manufactured and Modular Homebuilder. The results quantify and verify a noticeable construction waste reduction.

Keywords: construction waste, modular construction, prefabricated buildings, waste management

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1588 Viscoelastic Properties of Sn-15%Pb Measured in an Oscillation Test

Authors: Gerardo Sanjuan Sanjuan, Ángel Enrique Chavéz Castellanos

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The knowledge of the rheological behavior of partially solidified metal alloy is an important issue when modeling and simulation of die filling in semisolid processes. Many experiments for like steady state, the step change in shear rate tests, shear stress ramps have been carried out leading that semi-solid alloys exhibit shear thinning, thixotropic behavior and yield stress. More advanced investigation gives evidence some viscoelastic features can be observed. The viscoelastic properties of materials are determinate by transient or dynamic methods; unfortunately, sparse information exists about oscillation experiments. The aim of this present work is to use small amplitude oscillatory tests for knowledge properties such as G´ and G´´. These properties allow providing information about materials structure. For this purpose, we investigated tin-lead alloy (Sn-15%Pb) which exhibits a similar microstructure to aluminum alloys and is the classic alloy for semisolid thixotropic studies. The experiments were performed with parallel plates rheometer AR-G2. Initially, the liquid alloy is cooled down to the semisolid range, a specific temperature to guarantee a constant fraction solid. Oscillation was performed within the linear viscoelastic regime with a strain sweep. So, the loss modulus G´´, the storage modulus G´ and the loss angle (δ) was monitored. In addition a frequency sweep at a strain below the critical strain for characterized its structure. This provides more information about the interactions among solid particles on a liquid matrix. After testing, the sample was removed then cooled, sectioned and examined metallographically. These experiments demonstrate that the viscoelasticity is sensitive to the solid fraction, and is strongly influenced by the shape and size of particles solid.

Keywords: rheology, semisolid alloys, thixotropic, viscoelasticity

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1587 Wind Energy Status in Turkey

Authors: Mustafa Engin Başoğlu, Bekir Çakir

Abstract:

Since large part of electricity generation is provided by using fossil based resources, energy is an important agenda for countries. Depletion of fossil resources, increasing awareness of climate change and global warming concerns are the major reasons for turning to alternative energy resources. Solar, wind and hydropower energy are the main renewable energy sources. Among of them, wind energy is promising for Turkey whose installed power capacity increases approximately eight times between 2008 - seventh month of 2014. Signing of Kyoto Protocol can be accepted as a milestone for Turkey's energy policy. Turkish government has announced 2023 Vision (2023 targets) in 2010-2014 Strategic Plan prepared by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR). 2023 Energy targets can be summarized as follows: Share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation is 30% of total electricity generation by 2023. Installed capacity of wind energy will be 20 GW by 2023. Other renewable energy sources such as solar, hydropower and geothermal are encouraged with new incentive mechanisms. Share of nuclear power plants in electricity generation will be 10% of total electricity generation by 2023. Dependence on foreign energy is reduced for sustainability and energy security. As of seventh month of 2014, total installed capacity of wind power plants is 3.42 GW and a lot of wind power plants are under construction with capacity 1.16 GW. Turkish government also encourages the locally manufactured equipments. MILRES is an important project aimed to promote the use of renewable sources in electricity generation. A 500 kW wind turbine will be produced in the first phase of project. Then 2.5 MW wind turbine will be manufactured domestically within this project

Keywords: wind energy, wind speed, 2023 vision, MILRES, wind energy potential in TURKEY

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1586 The Influence of Steel Connection on Fire Resistance of Composite Steel-Framed Buildings

Authors: Mohammed Kadhim, Zhaohui Huang

Abstract:

Steel connections can play an important role in enhancing the robustness of structures under fire conditions. Therefore, it is significant to examine the influence of steel connections on the fire resistance of composite steel-framed buildings. In this paper, both the behavior of steel connections and their influence on composite steel frame are analyzed using the non-linear finite element computer software VULCAN at ambient and elevated temperatures. The chosen frame is subjected to ISO834 fire. The comparison between end plate connections, pinned connection, and rigid connection has been carried out. By applying different compartment fires, some cases are studied to show the behavior of steel connection when the fire is applied at certain beams. In addition, different plate thickness and deferent applied loads have been analyzed to examine the behavior of chosen steel connection under ISO834 fire. It was found from the analytical results that the beam with extended end plate is stronger and has better performance in terms of axial forces than those beams with flush end plate connection. It was also found that extended end plate connection has highest limiting temperatures compared to the flush end plate connection. In addition, it was found that the performance of end-plate connections is very close to rigid connection and very far from pinned connections. Furthermore, plate thickness has less effect on the influence of steel connection on fire resistance. In conclusion, the behavior of composite steel framed buildings is largely dependent on the steel connection due to their high impact under fire condition. It is recommended to consider the extended end-plate in the design proposes because of its higher properties compared to the flush end plate connection. Finally, this paper shows a steel connection has an important effect on the fire resistance of composite steel framed buildings.

Keywords: composite steel-framed buildings, connection behavior, end-plate connections, finite element modeling, fire resistance

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1585 Solid Health Care Waste Management Practice in Ethiopia

Authors: Yeshanew Ayele Tiruneh, L. M. Modiba, S. M. Zuma

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Introduction- Healthcare waste is any waste generated by health care facilities, considered potentially hazardous to health. Solid health care waste is categorised into infectious and non-infectious wastes. Infectious waste is material suspected to contain pathogens. The non-infectious waste includes wastes that have not been in contact with infectious agents, hazardous chemicals, or radioactive substances. The purpose is to assess solid health care waste (SHCW) management practice toward developing guidelines. The setting is all health facilities found in Hossaena town. A mixed-method study design used. For the qualitative part, small purposeful samples were considered and large samples for the quantitative phase. Both samples were taken from the same population. Result - 17(3.1%) of health facility workers have hand washing facilities. 392 (72.6%) of the participants agree on the availability of one or more of personal protective equipment (PPE) in the facility ‘’the reason for the absence of some of the PPEs like boots, goggles, and shortage of disposable gloves are owing to cost inflation from time to time and sometimes absent from the market’’. The observational finding shows that colour coded waste bins are available at 23 (9.6%) of the rooms. Majority of the sharp container used in the health facility are reusable in the contrary to the health care waste management standards and most of them are plastic buckets and easily cleanable. All of the health facility infectious waste are collected transported and deposed daily. Regarding the preventive vaccination nearly half of the the fahealth facility workers wer vaccinated for Hep B virus. Conclusion- Hand washing facilities, personal protective equipment’s and preventive vaccinations are not easily available for health workers. Solid waste segregation practices are poor and these practices showed that SWMP is below the acceptable level.

Keywords: health care waste, waste management, disposal, private health facilities

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1584 Development of a Regression Based Model to Predict Subjective Perception of Squeak and Rattle Noise

Authors: Ramkumar R., Gaurav Shinde, Pratik Shroff, Sachin Kumar Jain, Nagesh Walke

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Advancements in electric vehicles have significantly reduced the powertrain noise and moving components of vehicles. As a result, in-cab noises have become more noticeable to passengers inside the car. To ensure a comfortable ride for drivers and other passengers, it has become crucial to eliminate undesirable component noises during the development phase. Standard practices are followed to identify the severity of noises based on subjective ratings, but it can be a tedious process to identify the severity of each development sample and make changes to reduce it. Additionally, the severity rating can vary from jury to jury, making it challenging to arrive at a definitive conclusion. To address this, an automotive component was identified to evaluate squeak and rattle noise issue. Physical tests were carried out for random and sine excitation profiles. Aim was to subjectively assess the noise using jury rating method and objectively evaluate the same by measuring the noise. Suitable jury evaluation method was selected for the said activity, and recorded sounds were replayed for jury rating. Objective data sound quality metrics viz., loudness, sharpness, roughness, fluctuation strength and overall Sound Pressure Level (SPL) were measured. Based on this, correlation co-efficients was established to identify the most relevant sound quality metrics that are contributing to particular identified noise issue. Regression analysis was then performed to establish the correlation between subjective and objective data. Mathematical model was prepared using artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithm. The developed model was able to predict the subjective rating with good accuracy.

Keywords: BSR, noise, correlation, regression

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1583 Empirical Measures to Enhance Germination Potential and Control Browning of Tissue Cultures of Andrographis paniculata

Authors: Nidhi Jindal, Ashok Chaudhury, Manisha Mangal

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Andrographis paniculata, (Burm f.) Wallich ex. Nees (Family Acanthaceae) popularly known as King of Bitters, is an important medicinal herb. It has an astonishingly wide range of medicinal properties such as anti-inflammatory,antidiarrhoeal, antiviral, antimalarial, hepatoprotective, cardiovascular, anticancer, and immunostimulatory activities. It is widely cultivated in southern Asia. Though propagation of this herb generally occurs through seeds, it has many germination problems which intrigued scientists to work out on the alternative techniques for its mass production. The potential of tissue culture techniques as an alternative tool for AP multiplication was found to be promising. However, the high mortality rate of explants caused by phenolic browning of explants is one of the difficulties reported. Low multiplication rates were reported in the proliferation phase, as well as cultures decline characterized by leaf fall and loss of overall vigor. In view of above problems, a study was undertaken to overcome seed dormancy to improve germination potential and to investigate further on the possible means for successful proliferation of cultures via preventive approaches to overcome failures caused by phenolic browning. Experiments were conducted to improve germination potential and among all the chemical and mechanical trials, scarification of seeds with sand paper proved to be the best method to enhance the germination potential (82.44%) within 7 days. Similarly, several pretreatments and media combinations were tried to overcome browning of explants leading to the conclusion that addition of 0.1% citric acid and 0.2% of ascorbic acid in the media followed by rapid sub culturing of explants controlled browning and decline of explants by 67.45%.

Keywords: plant tissue culture, empirical measure, germination, tissue culture

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1582 The Adoption of Leagility in Healthcare Services

Authors: Ana L. Martins, Luis Orfão

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Healthcare systems have been subject to various research efforts aiming at process improvement under a lean approach. Another perspective, agility, has also been used, though in a lower scale, in order to analyse the ability of different hospital services to adapt to demand uncertainties. Both perspectives have a common denominator, the improvement of effectiveness and efficiency of the services in a healthcare setting context. Mixing the two approached allows, on one hand, to streamline the processes, and on the other hand the required flexibility to deal with demand uncertainty in terms of both volume and variety. The present research aims to analyse the impacts of the combination of both perspectives in the effectiveness and efficiency of an hospital service. The adopted methodology is based on a case study approach applied to the process of the ambulatory surgery service of Hospital de Lamego. Data was collected from direct observations, formal interviews and informal conversations. The analyzed process was selected according to three criteria: relevance of the process to the hospital, presence of human resources, and presence of waste. The customer of the process was identified as well as his perception of value. The process was mapped using flow chart, on a process modeling perspective, as well as through the use of Value Stream Mapping (VSM) and Process Activity Mapping. The Spaghetti Diagram was also used to assess flow intensity. The use of the lean tools enabled the identification of three main types of waste: movement, resource inefficiencies and process inefficiencies. From the use of the lean tools improvement suggestions were produced. The results point out that leagility cannot be applied to the process, but the application of lean and agility in specific areas of the process would bring benefits in both efficiency and effectiveness, and contribute to value creation if improvements are introduced in hospital’s human resources and facilities management.

Keywords: case study, healthcare systems, leagility, lean management

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1581 Design and Development of a Lead-Free BiFeO₃-BaTiO₃ Quenched Ceramics for High Piezoelectric Strain Performance

Authors: Muhammad Habib, Lin Tang, Guoliang Xue, Attaur Rahman, Myong-Ho Kim, Soonil Lee, Xuefan Zhou, Yan Zhang, Dou Zhang

Abstract:

Designing a high-performance, lead-free ceramic has become a cutting-edge research topic due to growing concerns about the toxic nature of lead-based materials. In this work, a convenient strategy of compositional design and domain engineering is applied to the lead-fee BiFeO₃-BaTiO₃ ceramics, which provides a flexible polarization-free-energy profile for domain switching. Here, simultaneously enhanced dynamic piezoelectric constant (d33* = 772 pm/V) and a good thermal-stability (d33* = 26% over the temperature of 20-180 ᵒC) are achieved with a high Curie temperature (TC) of 432 ᵒC. This high piezoelectric strain performance is collectively attributed to multiple effects such as thermal quenching, suppression of defect charges by donor doping, chemically induced local structure heterogeneity, and electric field-induced phase transition. Furthermore, the addition of BT content decreased octahedral tilting, reduced anisotropy for domain switching and increased tetragonality (cₜ/aₜ), providing a wider polar length for B-site cation displacement, leading to high piezoelectric strain performance. Atomic-resolution transmission electron microscopy and piezoelectric force microscopy combined with X-ray diffraction results strongly support the origin of high piezoelectricity. The high and temperature-stable piezoelectric strain response of this work is superior to those of other lead-free ceramics. The synergistic approach of composition design and the concept present here for the origin of high strain response provides a paradigm for the development of materials for high-temperature piezoelectric actuator applications.

Keywords: Piezoelectric, BiFeO3-BaTiO3, Quenching, Temperature-insensitive

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1580 Enzyme Treatment of Sorghum Dough: Modifications of Rheological Properties and Product Characteristics

Authors: G. K. Sruthi, Sila Bhattacharya

Abstract:

Sorghum is an important food crop in the dry tropical areas of the world, and possesses significant levels of phytochemicals and dietary fiber to offer health benefits. However, the absence of gluten is a limitation for converting the sorghum dough into sheeted/flattened/rolled products. Chapathi/roti (flat unleavened bread prepared conventionally from whole wheat flour dough) was attempted from sorghum as wheat gluten causes allergic reactions leading to celiac disease. Dynamic oscillatory rheology of sorghum flour dough (control sample) and enzyme treated sorghum doughs were studied and linked to the attributes of the finished ready-to-eat product. Enzymes like amylase, xylanase, and a mix of amylase and xylanase treated dough affected drastically the rheological behaviour causing a lowering of dough consistency. In the case of amylase treated dough, marked decrease of the storage modulus (G') values from 85513 Pa to 23041 Pa and loss modulus (G") values from 8304 Pa to 7370 Pa was noticed while the phase angle (δ) increased from 5.6 to 10.1o for treated doughs. There was a 2 and 3 fold increase in the total sugar content after α-amylase and xylanase treatment, respectively, with simultaneous changes in the structure of the dough and finished product. Scanning electron microscopy exhibited enhanced extent of changes in starch granules. Amylase and mixed enzyme treatment produced a sticky dough which was difficult to roll/flatten. The dough handling properties were improved by the use of xylanase and quality attributes of the chapath/roti. It is concluded that enzyme treatment can offer improved rheological status of gluten free doughs and products.

Keywords: sorghum dough, amylase, xylanase, dynamic oscillatory rheology, sensory assessment

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1579 Mixed Hydrotropic Zaleplon Oral Tablets: Formulation and Neuropharmacological Effect on Plasma GABA Level

Authors: Ghada A. Abdelbary, Maha M. Amin, Mostafa Abdelmoteleb

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Zaleplon (ZP) is a non-benzodiazepine poorly soluble hypnotic drug indicated for the short term treatment of insomnia having a bioavailability of about 30%. The aim of the present study is to enhance the solubility and consequently the bioavailability of ZP using hydrotropic agents (HA). Phase solubility diagrams of ZP in presence of different molar concentrations of HA (Sodium benzoate, Urea, Ascorbic acid, Resorcinol, Nicotinamide, and Piperazine) were constructed. ZP/Sodium benzoate and Resorcinol microparticles were prepared adopting melt, solvent evaporation and melt-evaporation techniques followed by XRD. Directly compressed mixed hydrotropic ZP tablets of Sodium benzoate and Resorcinol in different weight ratios were prepared and evaluated compared to the commercially available tablets (Sleep aid® 5 mg). The effect of shelf and accelerated stability storage (40°C ± 2°C/75%RH ± 5%RH) on the optimum tablet formula (F5) for six months were studied. The enhancement of ZP solubility follows the order of: Resorcinol > Sodium benzoate > Ascorbic acid > Piperazine > Urea > Nicotinamide with about 350 and 2000 fold increase using 1M of Sodium benzoate and Resorcinol respectively. ZP/HA microparticles exhibit the order of: Solvent evaporation > melt-solvent evaporation > melt > physical mixture which was further confirmed by the complete conversion of ZP into amorphous form. Mixed hydrotropic tablet formula (F5) composed of ZP/(Resorcinol: Sodium benzoate 4:1w/w) microparticles prepared by solvent evaporation exhibits in-vitro dissolution of 31.7±0.11% after five minutes (Q5min) compared to 10.0±0.10% for Sleep aid® (5 mg) respectively. F5 showed significantly higher GABA concentration of 122.5±5.5mg/mL in plasma compared to 118±1.00 and 27.8±1.5 mg/mL in case of Sleep aid® (5 mg) and control taking only saline respectively suggesting a higher neuropharmacological effect of ZP following hydrotropic solubilization.

Keywords: zaleplon, hydrotropic solubilization, plasma GABA level, mixed hydrotropy

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1578 Numerical Analysis of Solar Cooling System

Authors: Nadia Allouache, Mohamed Belmedani

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Energy source is a sustainable, totally inexhaustible and environmentally friendly alternative to the fossil fuels available. It is a renewable and economical energy that can be harnessed sustainably over the long term and thus stabilizes energy costs. Solar cooling technologies have been developed to decrease the augmentation electricity consumption for air conditioning and to displace the peak load during hot summer days. A numerical analysis of thermal and solar performances of an annular finned adsorber, which is the most important component of the adsorption solar refrigerating system, is considered in this work. Different adsorbent/adsorbate pairs, such as activated carbon AC35/methanol, activated carbon AC35/ethanol, and activated carbon BPL/Ammoniac, are undertaken in this study. The modeling of the adsorption cooling machine requires the resolution of the equation describing the energy and mass transfer in the tubular finned adsorber. The Wilson and Dubinin- Astakhov models of the solid-adsorbate equilibrium are used to calculate the adsorbed quantity. The porous medium and the fins are contained in the annular space, and the adsorber is heated by solar energy. Effects of key parameters on the adsorbed quantity and on the thermal and solar performances are analysed and discussed. The AC35/methanol pair is the best pair compared to BPL/Ammoniac and AC35/ethanol pairs in terms of system performance. The system performances are sensitive to the fin geometry. For the considered data measured for clear type days of July 2023 in Algeria and Morocco, the performances of the cooling system are very significant in Algeria.

Keywords: activated carbon AC35-methanol pair, activated carbon AC35-ethanol pair, activated carbon BPL-ammoniac pair, annular finned adsorber, performance coefficients, numerical analysis, solar cooling system

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1577 Study of the Hydrochemical Composition of Canal, Collector-Drainage and Ground Waters of Kura-Araz Plain and Modeling by GIS Method

Authors: Gurbanova Lamiya

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The Republic of Azerbaijan is considered a region with limited water resources, as up to 70% of surface water is formed outside the country's borders, and most of its territory is an arid (dry) climate zone. It is located at the lower limit of transboundary flows, which is the weakest source of natural water resources in the South Caucasus. It is essential to correctly assess the quality of natural, collector-drainage and groundwater of the area and their suitability for irrigation in order to properly carry out land reclamation measures, provide the normal water-salt regime, and prevent repeated salinization. Through the 141-km-long main Mil-Mugan collector, groundwater, household waste, and floodwaters generated during floods and landslides are poured into the Caspian Sea. The hydrochemical composition of the samples taken from the Sabir irrigation canal passing through the center of the Kura-Araz plain, the Main Mil-Mugan Collector, and the groundwater of the region, which we chose as our research object, were studied and the obtained results were compared by periods. A model is proposed that allows for a complete visualization of the primary materials collected for the study area. The practical use of the established digital model provides all possibilities. The practical use of the established digital model provides all possibilities. An extensive database was created with the ArcGis 10.8 package, using publicly available LandSat satellite images as primary data in addition to ground surveys to build the model. The principles of the construction of the geographic information system of modern GIS technology were developed, the boundary and initial condition of the research area were evaluated, and forecasts and recommendations were given.

Keywords: irrigation channel, groundwater, collector, meliorative measures

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1576 Catalytic Production of Hydrogen and Carbon Nanotubes over Metal/SiO2 Core-Shell Catalyst from Plastic Wastes Gasification

Authors: Wei-Jing Li, Ren-Xuan Yang, Kui-Hao Chuang, Ming-Yen Wey

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Nowadays, plastic product and utilization are extensive and have greatly improved our life. Yet, plastic wastes are stable and non-biodegradable challenging issues to the environment. Waste-to-energy strategies emerge a promising way for waste management. This work investigated the co-production of hydrogen and carbon nanotubes from the syngas which was from the gasification of polypropylene. A nickel-silica core-shell catalyst was applied for syngas reaction from plastic waste gasification in a fixed-bed reactor. SiO2 were prepared through various synthesis solvents by Stöber process. Ni plays a role as modified SiO2 support, which were synthesized by deposition-precipitation method. Core-shell catalysts have strong interaction between active phase and support, in order to avoid catalyst sintering. Moreover, Fe or Co metal acts as promoter to enhance catalytic activity. The effects of calcined atmosphere, second metal addition, and reaction temperature on hydrogen production and carbon yield were examined. In this study, the catalytic activity and carbon yield results revealed that the Ni/SiO2 catalyst calcined under H2 atmosphere exhibited the best performance. Furthermore, Co promoted Ni/SiO2 catalyst produced 3 times more than Ni/SiO2 on carbon yield at long-term operation. The structure and morphological nature of the calcined and spent catalysts were examined using different characterization techniques including scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction. In addition, the quality and thermal stability of the nano-carbon materials were also evaluated by Raman spectroscopy and thermogravimetric analysis.

Keywords: plastic wastes, hydrogen, carbon nanotube, core-shell catalysts

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1575 Study of Laminar Convective Heat Transfer, Friction Factor, and Pumping Power Advantage of Aluminum Oxide-Water Nanofluid through a Channel

Authors: M. Insiat Islam Rabby, M. Mahbubur Rahman, Eshanul Islam, A. K. M. Sadrul Islam

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The numerical and simulative analysis of laminar heat exchange convection of aluminum oxide (Al₂O₃) - water nanofluid for the developed region through two parallel plates is presented in this present work. The second order single phase energy equation, mass and momentum equation are solved by using finite volume method with the ANSYS FLUENT 16 software. The distance between two parallel plates is 4 mm and length is 600 mm. Aluminum oxide (Al₂O₃) is used as nanoparticle and water is used as the base/working fluid for the investigation. At the time of simulation 1% to 5% volume concentrations of the Al₂O₃ nanoparticles are used for mixing with water to produce nanofluid and a wide range of interval of Reynolds number from 500 to 1100 at constant heat flux 500 W/m² at the channel wall has also been introduced. The result reveals that for increasing the Reynolds number the Nusselt number and heat transfer coefficient are increased linearly and friction factor decreased linearly in the developed region for both water and Al₂O₃-H₂O nanofluid. By increasing the volume fraction of Al₂O₃-H₂O nanofluid from 1% to 5% the value of Nusselt number increased rapidly from 0.7 to 7.32%, heat transfer coefficient increased 7.14% to 31.5% and friction factor increased very little from 0.1% to 4% for constant Reynolds number compared to pure water. At constant heat transfer coefficient 700 W/m2-K the pumping power advantages have been achieved 20% for 1% volume concentration and 62% for 3% volume concentration of nanofluid compared to pure water.

Keywords: convective heat transfer, pumping power, constant heat flux, nanofluid, nanoparticles, volume concentration, thermal conductivity

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1574 Toxicity, Analgesic, and Anti-Pyretic Activities of Methanolic Extract from Hyoscyamus albus’ Leaves in Albinos Rats

Authors: Yahia Massinissa, Afaf Benhouda, Mouloud Yahia

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Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the toxicity; analgesic and anti-pyretic properties of standardized HA methanolic extract (HAMeOH) in vivo. Methods: The acute toxicity study was performed on rats while adopting the OECD-420 Guidelines (fixed dose procedure). Assessment of analgesic activity was performed in rats with two analgesic models. One was acetic acid induced writhing response and the other formalin-induced paw licking. The anti-pyretic effect was tested by Brewer’s yeast induced fever in rats. Results: For the acute toxicity test, the higher dose administration of 2000 mg/kg bw. of H.albus did not produce any toxic signs or deaths in rats. There were no significant differences (p>0.05) in the body and organ weights between control and treated groups. The (LD50) of 'H. albus' was higher than 2000 g/kg bw. In subacute toxicity study, no mortality and toxic signs were observed with the doses of 100 and 200 mg/kg bw. of extracts of for 28 consecutive days. These analgesic experimental results indicated that HAMeOH (100 mg/kg and 200 mg/kg) decreased the acetic acid-induced writhing responses and HAMeOH (100 mg/kg and 200 mg/kg) decreased the licking time in the second phase of the formalin test. Moreover, in the model of yeast-induced elevation of the body temperature HAMeOH showed dose-dependent lowering of the body temperature up to 3h at both the doses these results obtained, were comparable to that of paracetamol. Conclusion: The present findings indicate that the leaves of Hyoscyamus albus L. possess potent analgesic and antipyretic activity.

Keywords: Hyoscyamus albus, Umbilicus rupestris, secondary metabolites, NMR with protons, pharmacobiologic activities, methanolic extract

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1573 Whole Body Vibration and Low Back Disorder among Saskatchewan Farmers: A Prospective Cohort Study

Authors: Samuel Kwaku Essien, Catherine Trask, Niels Koehncke, Brenna Bath

Abstract:

Background: Low back disorder (LBD) is the most common musculoskeletal problem among farmers, with higher prevalence than other occupations. Operators of tractors and other farm machinery such as combines or all-terrain vehicles (ATV) can have considerable cumulative exposure to whole body vibration (WBV). Although there appears to be an association between LBD and WBV, lack of prospective studies makes the relationship between LBD and WBV unclear. Purpose: This study investigates the association between WBV and LBD among Saskatchewan farmers using a prospective cohort study Methods: The Saskatchewan Farm Injury Cohort Study Phase I (2007) and II (2013) data were used. Baseline data were collected via postal questionnaire on accumulated yearly tractor, combine, and ATV use as well as several covariates to support a biopsychosocial model of LBD. Follow-up data on musculoskeletal symptoms were collected for the 6-year with sample size of 1149. Questions on ‘low back trouble’ (ache, pain, discomfort) experienced in the last 12 months answered by farmer participants as ‘yes’ or ‘no’. A GEE-modified Poisson approach was performed using SPSS 22 and SAS 9.4. Results: Twelve-month Prevalence of LBD was 59.8%. In multivariate analysis of the 6-year follow-up, LBD was associated with ATV operation and tractor operation, with a dose-response relationship for annual accumulated tractor operation. Although combine operation ≥ 61 hrs/year was related to LBD in bivariate analysis, this difference did not persist after adjustment for confounder. Age was found to be a confounder in relationship between WBV and LBD and no interactions were found. Conclusion: Longer annual tractor operation and older age are important predictors of LBD symptoms in farmers. Future research involving direct measurement can help identify appropriate prevention strategies.

Keywords: agriculture, low back disorder, low back pain, occupational health

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1572 Radiation Skin Decontamination Formulation

Authors: Navneet Sharma, Himanshu Ojha, Dharam Pal Pathak, Rakesh Kumar Sharma

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Radio-nuclides decontamination is an important task because any extra second of deposition leads to deleterious health effects. We had developed and characterise nanoemulsion of p-tertbutylcalix[4]arens using phase inversion temperature (PIT) method and evaluate its decontamination efficacy (DE). The solubility of the drug was determined in various oils and surfactants. Nanoemulsion developed with an HLB value of 11 and different ratios of the surfactants 10% (7:3, w/w), oil (20%, w/w), and double distilled water (70%) were selected. Formulation was characterised by multi-photon spectroscopy and parameters like viscosity, droplet size distribution, zeta potential and stability were optimised. In vitro and Ex vivo decontamination efficacy (DE) was evaluated against Technetium-99m, Iodine-131, and Thallium-201 as radio-contaminants applied over skin of Sprague-Dawley rat and human tissue equivalent model. Contaminants were removed using formulation soaked in cotton swabs at different time intervals and whole body imaging and static counts were recorded using SPECT gamma camera before and after decontamination attempt. Data were analysed using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and was found to be significant (p <0.05). DE of the nanoemulsion loaded with p-tertbutylcalix[4]arens was compared with placebo and recorded to be 88±5%, 90±3% and 89±3% for 99mTc, 131I and 201Tl respectively. Ex-vivo complexation study of p-tertbutylcalix[4]arene nanoemulsion with surrogate nuclides of radioactive thallium and Iodine, were performed on rat skin mounted on Franz diffusion cell using high-resolution sector field inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (HR-SF-ICPMS). More than 90% complexation of the formulation with these nuclides was observed. Results demonstrate that the prepared nanoemulsion formulation was found efficacious for the decontamination of radionuclides from a large contaminated population.

Keywords: p-tertbutylcalix[4]arens, skin decontamination, radiological emergencies, nanoemulsion, iodine-131, thallium-201

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1571 NeuroBactrus, a Novel, Highly Effective, and Environmentally Friendly Recombinant Baculovirus Insecticide

Authors: Yeon Ho Je

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A novel recombinant baculovirus, NeuroBactrus, was constructed to develop an improved baculovirus insecticide with additional beneficial properties, such as a higher insecticidal activity and improved recovery, compared to wild-type baculovirus. For the construction of NeuroBactrus, the Bacillus thuringiensis crystal protein gene (here termed cry1-5) was introduced into the Autographa californica nucleopolyhedrovirus (AcMNPV) genome by fusion of the polyhedrin–cry1-5–polyhedrin genes under the control of the polyhedrin promoter. In the opposite direction, an insect-specific neurotoxin gene, AaIT, from Androctonus australis was introduced under the control of an early promoter from Cotesia plutellae bracovirus by fusion of a partial fragment of orf603. The polyhedrin–Cry1-5–polyhedrin fusion protein expressed by the NeuroBactrus was not only occluded into the polyhedra, but it was also activated by treatment with trypsin, resulting in an_65-kDa active toxin. In addition, quantitative PCR revealed that the neurotoxin was expressed from the early phase of infection. NeuroBactrus showed a high level of insecticidal activity against Plutella xylostella larvae and a significant reduction in the median lethal time against Spodoptera exigua larvae compared to those of wild-type AcMNPV. Rerecombinant mutants derived from NeuroBactrus in which AaIT and/or cry1-5 were deleted were generated by serial passages in vitro. Expression of the foreign proteins (B. thuringiensis toxin and AaIT) was continuously reduced during the serial passage of the NeuroBactrus. Moreover, polyhedra collected from S. exigua larvae infected with the serially passaged NeuroBactrus showed insecticidal activity similar to that of wild-type AcMNPV. These results suggested that NeuroBactrus could be recovered to wild-type AcMNPV through serial passaging.

Keywords: baculovirus, insecticide, neurotoxin, neurobactrus

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1570 Structural Protein-Protein Interactions Network of Breast Cancer Lung and Brain Metastasis Corroborates Conformational Changes of Proteins Lead to Different Signaling

Authors: Farideh Halakou, Emel Sen, Attila Gursoy, Ozlem Keskin

Abstract:

Protein–Protein Interactions (PPIs) mediate major biological processes in living cells. The study of PPIs as networks and analyze the network properties contribute to the identification of genes and proteins associated with diseases. In this study, we have created the sub-networks of brain and lung metastasis from primary tumor in breast cancer. To do so, we used seed genes known to cause metastasis, and produced their interactions through a network-topology based prioritization method named GUILDify. In order to have the experimental support for the sub-networks, we further curated them using STRING database. We proceeded by modeling structures for the interactions lacking complex forms in Protein Data Bank (PDB). The functional enrichment analysis shows that KEGG pathways associated with the immune system and infectious diseases, particularly the chemokine signaling pathway, are important for lung metastasis. On the other hand, pathways related to genetic information processing are more involved in brain metastasis. The structural analyses of the sub-networks vividly demonstrated their difference in terms of using specific interfaces in lung and brain metastasis. Furthermore, the topological analysis identified genes such as RPL5, MMP2, CCR5 and DPP4, which are already known to be associated with lung or brain metastasis. Additionally, we found 6 and 9 putative genes that are specific for lung and brain metastasis, respectively. Our analysis suggests that variations in genes and pathways contributing to these different breast metastasis types may arise due to change in tissue microenvironment. To show the benefits of using structural PPI networks instead of traditional node and edge presentation, we inspect two case studies showing the mutual exclusiveness of interactions and effects of mutations on protein conformation which lead to different signaling.

Keywords: breast cancer, metastasis, PPI networks, protein conformational changes

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1569 An Inclusion Project for Deaf Children into a Northern Italy Contest

Authors: G. Tamanza, A. Bossoni

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84 deaf students (from primary school to college) and their families participated in this inclusion project in cooperation with numerous institutions in northern Italy (Brescia-Lombardy). Participants were either congenitally deaf or their deafness was related to other pathologies. This research promoted the integration of deaf students as they pass from primary school to high school to college. Learning methods and processes were studied that focused on encour­aging individual autonomy and socialization. The research team and its collaborators included school teachers, speech ther­apists, psychologists and home tutors, as well as teaching assistants, child neuropsychiatrists and other external authorities involved with deaf persons social inclusion programs. Deaf children and their families were supported, in terms of inclusion, and were made aware of the research team that focused on the Bisogni Educativi Speciali (BES or Special Educational Needs) (L.170/2010 - DM 5669/2011). This project included a diagnostic and evaluative phase as well as an operational one. Results demonstrated that deaf children were highly satisfied and confident; academic performance improved and collaboration in school increased. Deaf children felt that they had access to high school and college. Empowerment for the families of deaf children in terms of networking among local services that deal with the deaf also improved while family satisfaction also improved. We found that teachers and those who gave support to deaf children increased their professional skills. Achieving autonomy, instrumental, communicative and relational abilities were also found to be crucial. Project success was determined by temporal continuity, clear theoretical methodology, strong alliance for the project direction and a resilient team response.

Keywords: autonomy, inclusion, skills, well-being

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1568 Compliance to Compassion: How COVID-19 Changed the Way Educators Used Social Media to Collaborate with Families

Authors: Eloise Thomson

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The COVID-19 global pandemic challenged our normative conceptualization of teaching across all age levels, requiring the transition to remote instruction, in some instances, literally overnight. Included in the rapidly changing education environment was the delivery of early childhood education. In Victoria, Australia, the capital city, Melbourne, became known as the most locked down city in the world. This presentation examines the ways educators used social media to collaborate with families before the COVID-19 pandemic and during the lockdown phase through the use of a Third Space conceptual framework and case study methodology. As a first step, the paper examines how social media may offer new opportunities for collaborative practice between educators and families. Second, the data is outlined and discussed with respect to collaborative practice and quality. Finally, a postscript then allows for insight into how educators’ practice of using social media to collaborate with families has been impacted by the COVID-19 global pandemic. Finally, the implications of the ways in which educators are using social media to collaborate with families are discussed. The use of social media in early-childhood education has the potential to provide a valuable platform for educators to connect with families and students. However, the use of social media by educators uncovered a dialogue of ‘quality’ and appeared to be dominated by evidence around compliance and attaining quality in a very specific, and perhaps narrow, way. The findings suggest a culture of compliance that is dominated by outcomes, standards and assessments and that this has changed the dynamics by which educators engage with families. Furthermore, findings highlighted the disparity between educators' and families' understanding of the intent of the collaborations themselves. This research was significant as it exposed the ways in which educators are engaging with social media, resulting in a discussion on the intent of collaborations, the questioning of imposed quality, and the notion that quality is measurable and exists in only one form.

Keywords: collaboration, compliance, early childhood, third space, pedagogy of caring, social media

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1567 Influence of Hygro-Thermo-Mechanical Loading on Buckling and Vibrational Behavior of FG-CNT Composite Beam with Temperature Dependent Characteristics

Authors: Puneet Kumar, Jonnalagadda Srinivas

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The authors report here vibration and buckling analysis of functionally graded carbon nanotube-polymer composite (FG-CNTPC) beams under hygro-thermo-mechanical environments using higher order shear deformation theory. The material properties of CNT and polymer matrix are often affected by temperature and moisture content. A micromechanical model with agglomeration effect is employed to compute the elastic, thermal and moisture properties of the composite beam. The governing differential equation of FG-CNTRPC beam is developed using higher-order shear deformation theory to account shear deformation effects. The elastic, thermal and hygroscopic strain terms are derived from variational principles. Moreover, thermal and hygroscopic loads are determined by considering uniform, linear and sinusoidal variation of temperature and moisture content through the thickness. Differential equations of motion are formulated as an eigenvalue problem using appropriate displacement fields and solved by using finite element modeling. The obtained results of natural frequencies and critical buckling loads show a good agreement with published data. The numerical illustrations elaborate the dynamic as well as buckling behavior under uniaxial load for different environmental conditions, boundary conditions and volume fraction distribution profile, beam slenderness ratio. Further, comparisons are shown at different boundary conditions, temperatures, degree of moisture content, volume fraction as well as agglomeration of CNTs, slenderness ratio of beam for different shear deformation theories.

Keywords: hygrothermal effect, free vibration, buckling load, agglomeration

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1566 A Study on Factors Affecting (Building Information Modelling) BIM Implementation in European Renovation Projects

Authors: Fatemeh Daneshvartarigh

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New technologies and applications have radically altered construction techniques in recent years. In order to anticipate how the building will act, perform, and appear, these technologies encompass a wide range of visualization, simulation, and analytic tools. These new technologies and applications have a considerable impact on completing construction projects in today's (architecture, engineering and construction)AEC industries. The rate of changes in BIM-related topics is different worldwide, and it depends on many factors, e.g., the national policies of each country. Therefore, there is a need for comprehensive research focused on a specific area with common characteristics. Therefore, one of the necessary measures to increase the use of this new approach is to examine the challenges and obstacles facing it. In this research, based on the Delphi method, at first, the background and related literature are reviewed. Then, using the knowledge obtained from the literature, a primary questionnaire is generated and filled by experts who are selected using snowball sampling. It covered the experts' attitudes towards implementing BIM in renovation projects and their view of the benefits and obstacles in this regard. By analyzing the primary questionnaire, the second group of experts is selected among the participants to be interviewed. The results are analyzed using Theme analysis. Six themes, including Management support, staff resistance, client willingness, Cost of software and implementation, the difficulty of implementation, and other reasons, are obtained. Then a final questionnaire is generated from the themes and filled by the same group of experts. The result is analyzed by the Fuzzy Delphi method, showing the exact ranking of the obtained themes. The final results show that management support, staff resistance, and client willingness are the most critical barrier to BIM usage in renovation projects.

Keywords: building information modeling, BIM, BIM implementation, BIM barriers, BIM in renovation

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1565 High-Resolution Flood Hazard Mapping Using Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model Anuga: Case Study of Jakarta, Indonesia

Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa

Abstract:

Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: 2D hydrodynamic model, ANUGA, flood, flood modeling

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1564 A Trend Based Forecasting Framework of the ATA Method and Its Performance on the M3-Competition Data

Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

Procedia PDF Downloads 164