Search results for: estimated%20model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2319

Search results for: estimated%20model

1659 Application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) on the Virtual Process Hazard Analysis of Acetone Production Process

Authors: Princes Ann E. Prieto, Denise F. Alpuerto, John Rafael C. Unlayao, Neil Concibido, Monet Concepcion Maguyon-Detras

Abstract:

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been used in the virtual Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the Acetone production process through the dehydrogenation of isopropyl alcohol, for which very limited process risk assessment has been published. In this study, the potential failure modes, effects, and possible causes of selected major equipment in the process were identified. During the virtual FMEA mock sessions, the risks in the process were evaluated and recommendations to reduce and/or mitigate the process risks were formulated. The risk was estimated using the calculated risk priority number (RPN) and was classified into four (4) levels according to their effects on acetone production. Results of this study were also used to rank the criticality of equipment in the process based on the calculated criticality rating (CR). Bow tie diagrams were also created for the critical hazard scenarios identified in the study.

Keywords: chemical process safety, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), process hazard analysis (PHA), process safety management (PSM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
1658 Estimation of Uncertainty of Thermal Conductivity Measurement with Single Laboratory Validation Approach

Authors: Saowaluck Ukrisdawithid

Abstract:

The thermal conductivity of thermal insulation materials are measured by Heat Flow Meter (HFM) apparatus. The components of uncertainty are complex and difficult on routine measurement by modelling approach. In this study, uncertainty of thermal conductivity measurement was estimated by single laboratory validation approach. The within-laboratory reproducibility was 1.1%. The standard uncertainty of method and laboratory bias by using SRM1453 expanded polystyrene board was dominant at 1.4%. However, it was assessed that there was no significant bias. For sample measurement, the sources of uncertainty were repeatability, density of sample and thermal conductivity resolution of HFM. From this approach to sample measurements, the combined uncertainty was calculated. In summary, the thermal conductivity of sample, polystyrene foam, was reported as 0.03367 W/m·K ± 3.5% (k = 2) at mean temperature 23.5 °C. The single laboratory validation approach is simple key of routine testing laboratory for estimation uncertainty of thermal conductivity measurement by using HFM, according to ISO/IEC 17025-2017 requirements. These are meaningful for laboratory competent improvement, quality control on products, and conformity assessment.

Keywords: single laboratory validation approach, within-laboratory reproducibility, method and laboratory bias, certified reference material

Procedia PDF Downloads 152
1657 Effect of Linear Thermal Gradient on Steady-State Creep Behavior of Isotropic Rotating Disc

Authors: Minto Rattan, Tania Bose, Neeraj Chamoli

Abstract:

The present paper investigates the effect of linear thermal gradient on the steady-state creep behavior of rotating isotropic disc using threshold stress based Sherby’s creep law. The composite discs made of aluminum matrix reinforced with silicon carbide particulate has been taken for analysis. The stress and strain rate distributions have been calculated for discs rotating at linear thermal gradation using von Mises’ yield criterion. The material parameters have been estimated by regression fit of the available experimental data. The results are displayed and compared graphically in designer friendly format for the above said temperature profile with the disc operating under uniform temperature profile. It is observed that radial and tangential stresses show minor variation and the strain rates vary significantly in the presence of thermal gradation as compared to disc having uniform temperature.

Keywords: creep, isotropic, steady-state, thermal gradient

Procedia PDF Downloads 267
1656 Understanding the Thermal Resistance of Active Dry Yeast by Differential Scanning Calorimetry Approach

Authors: Pauline Ribert, Gaelle Roudaut, Sebastien Dupont, Laurent Beney

Abstract:

Yeasts, anhydrobiotic organisms, can survive extreme water disturbances, thanks to the prolonged and reversible suspension of their cellular activity as well as the establishment of a defense arsenal. This property is exploited by many industrialists. One of the protection systems implemented by yeast is the vitrification of its cytoplasm by trehalose. The thermal resistance of dry yeasts is a crucial parameter for their use. However, studies on the thermal resistance of dry yeasts are often based on yeasts produced in laboratory conditions with non-optimal drying processes. We, therefore, propose a study on the thermal resistance of industrial dry yeasts in relation to their thermophysical properties. Heat stress was applied at three temperatures (50, 75, and 100°C) for 10, 30, or 60-minute treatments. The survival of yeasts to these treatments was estimated, and their thermophysical properties were studied by differential scanning calorimetry. The industrial dry yeasts resisted 60 minutes at 50°C and 75°C and 10 minutes at a temperature close to 100°C. At 100°C, yeast was above their glass transition temperature. Industrial dry yeasts are therefore capable of withstanding high thermal stress if maintained in a specific thermophysical state.

Keywords: dry yeast, glass transition, thermal resistance, vitrification

Procedia PDF Downloads 148
1655 Value Engineering and Its Impact on Drainage Design Optimization for Penang International Airport Expansion

Authors: R.M. Asyraf, A. Norazah, S.M. Khairuddin, B. Noraziah

Abstract:

Designing a system at present requires a vital, challenging task; to ensure the design philosophy is maintained in economical ways. This paper perceived the value engineering (VE) approach applied in infrastructure works, namely stormwater drainage. This method is adopted in line as consultants have completed the detailed design. Function Analysis System Technique (FAST) diagram and VE job plan, information, function analysis, creative judgement, development, and recommendation phase are used to scrutinize the initial design of stormwater drainage. An estimated cost reduction using the VE approach of 2% over the initial proposal was obtained. This cost reduction is obtained from the design optimization of the drainage foundation and structural system, where the pile design and drainage base structure are optimized. Likewise, the design of the on-site detention tank (OSD) pump was revised and contribute to the cost reduction obtained. This case study shows that the VE approach can be an important tool in optimizing the design to reduce costs.

Keywords: value engineering, function analysis system technique, stormwater drainage, cost reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
1654 Critical Accounting Estimates and Transparency in Financial Reporting: An Observation Financial Reporting under US GAAP

Authors: Ahmed Shaik

Abstract:

Estimates are very critical in accounting and Financial Reporting cannot be complete without these estimates. There is a long list of accounting estimates that are required to be made to compute Net Income and to determine the value of assets and liabilities. To name a few, valuation of inventory, depreciation, valuation of goodwill, provision for bad debts and estimated warranties, etc. require the use of different valuation models and forecasts. Different business entities under the same industry may use different approaches to measure the value of financial items being reported in Income Statement and Balance Sheet. The disclosure notes do not provide enough details of the approach used by a business entity to arrive at the value of a financial item. Lack of details in the disclosure notes makes it difficult to compare the financial performance of one business entity with the other in the same industry. This paper is an attempt to identify the lack of enough information about accounting estimates in disclosure notes, the impact of the absence of details of accounting estimates on the comparability of financial data and financial analysis. An attempt is made to suggest the detailed disclosure while taking care of the cost and benefit of making such disclosure.

Keywords: accounting estimates, disclosure notes, financial reporting, transparency

Procedia PDF Downloads 199
1653 Evaluating the Methods of Retrofitting and Renovating of the Masonry Schools

Authors: Navid Khayat

Abstract:

This study investigates the retrofitting of schools in Ahvaz City. Three schools, namely, Enghelab, Sherafat, and Golchehreh, in Ahvaz City are initially examined through Schmidt hammer and ultrasonic tests. Given the tests and controls on the structures of these schools, the methods are presented for their reconstruction. The plan is presented for each school by estimating the cost and generally the feasibility and estimated the duration of project reconstruction. After reconstruction, the mentioned tests are re-performed for rebuilt parts and the results indicate a significant improvement in performance of structure because of reconstruction. According to the results, despite the fact that the use of fiber reinforced polymers (FRP) for structure retrofitting is costly, due to the low executive costs and also other benefits of FRP, it is generally considered as one of the most effective ways of retrofitting. Building the concrete coating on walls is another effective method in retrofitting the buildings. According to this method, a grid of horizontal and vertical bars is installed on the wall and then the concrete is poured on it. The use of concrete coating on the concrete and brick structures leads to the useful results and the experience indicates that the poured concrete filled the joints well and provides the appropriate binding and adhesion.

Keywords: renovation, retrofitting, masonry structures, old school

Procedia PDF Downloads 279
1652 Preparation, Characterisation and Electrical Properties of Metal/polymer-DNA Nanohybrids

Authors: Mahdi Almaky

Abstract:

Conducting polymer of N-(3-pyrrol-1-yl-propyl)-2,2`-bipyridinium hexafluoro-phosphate (PPBH) was prepared via chemical and electrochemical polymerization methods. The bulk polymer showed conductivity in the order of 10-12 S cm-1. DNA-templated polymer nano wires of PPBH (PolyPPBH-DNA) have been chemically prepared then used as templates to direct the formation of metal nanowires (Cu) in order to enhance the electrical properties of the polymer/DNA wires. The chemical structures, morphology and the electrical characterisation of the as obtained structures have been characterized through spectroscopic (FTIR, UV-vis and XPS), single-crystal X-ray diffraction and microscopic (AFM, EFM and c-AFM) techniques. The morphology of the nanomaterials has been observed by AFM; showing the nanowires are uniform and continuous. The polymer conductivity was slightly improved after metallization. The conductivity of Cu-PolyPPBH-DNA nanowires was estimated to be 7.1x10-2 S cm-1. This conductivity is slightly higher than the conductivity of PolyPPBH-DNA nano wires (2.0 x 10-2 S cm-1), but it is lower than the measurements for PPy/DNA nano wires (2.1 x 10-1 S cm-1) prepared and measured by using c-AFM probe. These results reflect the large effect of the chemical structure (N-substitution) on the electrical properties of these polymers by reducing the extended conjugation.

Keywords: DNA, template, nano wires, N-Alkylatedpyrrole, copper

Procedia PDF Downloads 420
1651 Prediction of Maximum Inter-Story Drifts of Steel Frames Using Intensity Measures

Authors: Edén Bojórquez, Victor Baca, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar, Jorge González

Abstract:

In this paper, simplified equations to predict maximum inter-story drift demands of steel framed buildings are proposed in terms of two ground motion intensity measures based on the acceleration spectral shape. For this aim, the maximum inter-story drifts of steel frames with 4, 6, 8 and 10 stories subjected to narrow-band ground motion records are estimated and compared with the spectral acceleration at first mode of vibration Sa(T1) which is commonly used in earthquake engineering and seismology, and with a new parameter related with the structural response known as INp. It is observed that INp is the parameter best related with the structural response of steel frames under narrow-band motions. Finally, equations to compute maximum inter-story drift demands of steel frames as a function of spectral acceleration and INp are proposed.

Keywords: intensity measures, spectral shape, steel frames, peak demands

Procedia PDF Downloads 390
1650 Molecular and Electronic Structure of Chromium (III) Cyclopentadienyl Complexes

Authors: Salem El-Tohami Ashoor

Abstract:

Here we show that the reduction of [Cr(ArN(CH2)3NAr)2Cl2] (1) where (Ar = 2,6-Pri2C6H3) and in presence of NaCp (2) (Cp= C5H5 = cyclopentadien), with a center coordination η5 interaction between Cp as co-ligand and chromium metal center, this was optimization by using density functional theory (DFT) and then was comparing with experimental data, also other possibility of Cp interacted with ion metal were tested like η1 ,η2 ,η3 and η4 under optimization system. These were carried out under investigation of density functional theory (DFT) calculation, and comparing together. Other methods, explicitly including electron correlation, are necessary for more accurate calculations; MB3LYP ( Becke)( Lee–Yang–Parr ) level of theory often being used to obtain more exact results. These complexes were estimated of electronic energy for molecular system, because it accounts for all electron correlation interactions. The optimised of [Cr(ArN(CH2)3NAr)2(η5-Cp)] (Ar = 2,6-Pri2C6H3 and Cp= C5H5) was found to be thermally more stable than others of chromium cyclopentadienyl. By using Dewar-Chatt-Duncanson model, as a basis of the molecular orbital (MO) analysis and showed the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) and lowest occupied molecular orbital LUMO.

Keywords: Chromium(III) cyclopentadienyl complexes, DFT, MO, HOMO, LUMO

Procedia PDF Downloads 504
1649 Dimensionality and Superconducting Parameters of YBa2Cu3O7 Foams

Authors: Michael Koblischka, Anjela Koblischka-Veneva, XianLin Zeng, Essia Hannachi, Yassine Slimani

Abstract:

Superconducting foams of YBa2Cu3O7 (abbreviated Y-123) were produced using the infiltration growth (IG) technique from Y2BaCuO5 (Y-211) foams. The samples were investigated by SEM (scanning electron microscopy) and electrical resistivity measurements. SEM observations indicated the specific microstructure of the foam struts with numerous tiny Y-211 particles (50-100 nm diameter) embedded in channel-like structures between the Y-123 grains. The investigation of the excess conductivity of different prepared composites was analyzed using Aslamazov-Larkin (AL) model. The investigated samples comprised of five distinct fluctuation regimes, namely short-wave (SWF), one-dimensional (1D), two-dimensional (2D), three-dimensional (3D), and critical (CR) fluctuations regimes. The coherence length along the c-axis at zero-temperature (ξc(0)), lower and upper critical magnetic fields (Bc1 and Bc2), critical current density (Jc) and numerous other superconducting parameters were estimated from the data. The analysis reveals that the presence of the tiny Y-211 particles alters the excess conductivity and the fluctuation behavior observed in standard YBCO samples.

Keywords: Excess conductivity, Foam, Microstructure, Superconductor YBa2Cu3Oy

Procedia PDF Downloads 167
1648 Analysis of the CO2 Emissions of Public Passenger Transport in Tianjin City of China

Authors: Tao Zhao, Xianshuo Xu

Abstract:

Low-carbon public passenger transport is an important part of low carbon city. The CO2 emissions of public passenger transport in Tianjin from 1995 to 2010 are estimated with IPCC CO2 counting method, which shows that the total CO2 emissions of Tianjin public passenger transport have gradually become stable at 1,425.1 thousand tons. And then the CO2 emissions of the buses, taxies, and rail transits are calculated respectively. A CO2 emission of 829.9 thousand tons makes taxies become the largest CO2 emissions source among the public passenger transport in Tianjin. Combining with passenger volume, this paper analyzes the CO2 emissions proportion of the buses, taxies, and rail transits compare the passenger transport rate with the proportion of CO2 emissions, as well as the CO2 emissions change of per 10,000 people. The passenger volume proportion of bus among the three public means of transport is 72.62% which is much higher than its CO2 emissions proportion of 36.01%, with the minimum number of CO2 emissions per 10,000 people of 4.90 tons. The countermeasures to reduce CO2 emissions of public passenger transport in Tianjin are to develop rail transit, update vehicles and use alternative fuel vehicles.

Keywords: public passenger transport, carbon emissions, countermeasures, China

Procedia PDF Downloads 428
1647 Thermal Barrier Coated Diesel Engine With Neural Networks Mathematical Modelling

Authors: Hanbey Hazar, Hakan Gul

Abstract:

In this study; piston, exhaust, and suction valves of a diesel engine were coated in 300 mm thickness with Tungsten Carbide (WC) by using the HVOF coating method. Mathematical modeling of a coated and uncoated (standardized) engine was performed by using ANN (Artificial Neural Networks). The purpose was to decrease the number of repetitions of tests and reduce the test cost through mathematical modeling of engines by using ANN. The results obtained from the tests were entered in ANN and therefore engines' values at all speeds were estimated. Results obtained from the tests were compared with those obtained from ANN and they were observed to be compatible. It was also observed that, with thermal barrier coating, hydrocarbon (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), and smoke density values of the diesel engine decreased; but nitrogen oxides (NOx) increased. Furthermore, it was determined that results obtained through mathematical modeling by means of ANN reduced the number of test repetitions. Therefore, it was understood that time, fuel and labor could be saved in this way.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Diesel Engine, Mathematical Modelling, Thermal Barrier Coating

Procedia PDF Downloads 527
1646 Exploring Entrepreneurship Intension Aptitude along Gender Lines among Business Decision Students in Nigeria

Authors: Paul O. Udofot, Emem B. Inyang

Abstract:

The study investigated the variability in aptitude amidst interactive effects of several social and environmental factors that could influence individual tendencies to engage in entrepreneurship in Nigeria. Consequently, the study targeted a population having similar backgrounds in type and level of higher education that are tailored toward enterprise management and development in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. A two-stage sampling procedure was used to select 67 respondents. Primarily, the study assessed the salient pattern of entrepreneurship aptitude of respondents, and estimated and analyzed the index against their personal characteristics. Male respondents belonged to two extremes of aptitude index ranges (poor and high). Though female respondents did not exhibit a poor entrepreneurship aptitude index, the incidence percentage of the high index range of entrepreneurship aptitude among male trainees was more than the combined incidence percentage of their female counterparts. Respondents’ backgrounds outside gender presented a serious influence on entrepreneurship uptake likelihood if all situations were normal.

Keywords: aptitude, entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial orientation, gender divide, intention, trainee

Procedia PDF Downloads 287
1645 Reducing Uncertainty of Monte Carlo Estimated Fatigue Damage in Offshore Wind Turbines Using FORM

Authors: Jan-Tore H. Horn, Jørgen Juncher Jensen

Abstract:

Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue estimations may be improved for the same computational efforts. The method is applied to a bottom-fixed, monopile-supported large offshore wind turbine, which is a non-linear and dynamically sensitive system. Different curve fitting techniques to the fatigue damage distribution have been used depending on the sea-state dependent response characteristics, and the effect of a bi-linear S-N curve is discussed. Finally, analyses are performed on several environmental conditions to investigate the long-term applicability of this multistep method. Wave loads are calculated using state-of-the-art theory, while wind loads are applied with a simplified model based on rotor thrust coefficients.

Keywords: fatigue damage, FORM, monopile, Monte Carlo, simulation, wind turbine

Procedia PDF Downloads 258
1644 Solar Photovoltaic Driven Air-Conditioning for Commercial Buildings: A Case of Botswana

Authors: Taboka Motlhabane, Pradeep Sahoo

Abstract:

The global demand for cooling has grown exponentially over the past century to meet economic development and social needs, accounting for approximately 10% of the global electricity consumption. As global temperatures continue to rise, the demand for cooling and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment is set to rise with it. The increased use of HVAC equipment has significantly contributed to the growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which aid the climate crisis- one of the biggest challenges faced by the current generation. The need to address emissions caused directly by HVAC equipment and electricity generated to meet the cooling or heating demand is ever more pressing. Currently, developed countries account for the largest cooling and heating demand, however developing countries are anticipated to experience a huge increase in population growth in 10 years, resulting in a shift in energy demand. Developing countries, which are projected to account for nearly 60% of the world's GDP by 2030, are rapidly building infrastructure and economies to meet their growing needs and meet these projections. Cooling, a very energy-intensive process that can account for 20 % to 75% of a building's energy, depending on the building's use. Solar photovoltaic (PV) driven air-conditioning offers a great cost-effective alternative for adoption in both residential and non-residential buildings to offset grid electricity, particularly in countries with high irradiation, such as Botswana. This research paper explores the potential of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic vapor-compression air-conditioning system for the Peter-Smith herbarium at the Okavango Research Institute (ORI) University of Botswana campus in Maun, Botswana. The herbarium plays a critical role in the collection and preservation of botanical data, dating back over 100 years, with pristine collection from the Okavango Delta, a UNESCO world heritage site and serves as a reference and research site. Due to the herbarium’s specific needs, it operates throughout the day and year in an attempt to maintain a constant herbarium temperature of 16°?. The herbarium model studied simulates a variable-air-volume HVAC system with a system rating of 30 kW. Simulation results show that the HVAC system accounts for 68.9% of the building's total electricity at 296 509.60 kWh annually. To offset the grid electricity, a 175.1 kWp nominal power rated PV system requiring 416 modules to match the required power, covering an area of 928 m2 is used to meet the HVAC system annual needs. An economic assessment using PVsyst found that for an installation priced with average solar PV prices in Botswana totalled to be 787 090.00 BWP, with annual operating costs of 30 500 BWP/year. With self-project financing, the project is estimated to have recouped its initial investment within 6.7 years. At an estimated project lifetime of 20 years, the Net Present Value is projected at 1 565 687.00 BWP with a ROI of 198.9%, with 74 070.67 tons of CO2 saved at the end of the project lifetime. This study investigates the performance of the HVAC system to meet the indoor air comfort requirements, the annual PV system performance, and the building model has been simulated using DesignBuilder Software.

Keywords: vapor compression refrigeration, solar cooling, renewable energy, herbarium

Procedia PDF Downloads 123
1643 Fast High Voltage Solid State Switch Using Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor for Discharge-Pumped Lasers

Authors: Nur Syarafina Binti Othman, Tsubasa Jindo, Makato Yamada, Miho Tsuyama, Hitoshi Nakano

Abstract:

A novel method to produce a fast high voltage solid states switch using Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) is presented for discharge-pumped gas lasers. The IGBTs are connected in series to achieve a high voltage rating. An avalanche transistor is used as the gate driver. The fast pulse generated by the avalanche transistor quickly charges the large input capacitance of the IGBT, resulting in a switch out of a fast high-voltage pulse. The switching characteristic of fast-high voltage solid state switch has been estimated in the multi-stage series-connected IGBT with the applied voltage of several tens of kV. Electrical circuit diagram and the mythology of fast-high voltage solid state switch as well as experimental results obtained are presented.

Keywords: high voltage, IGBT, solid state switch, bipolar transistor

Procedia PDF Downloads 551
1642 Toxicological Risk Analysis in Different Crops and Vegetables Exposed to High Fluoride-Contaminated Water

Authors: Pankaj Kumar

Abstract:

Despite few works reported about fluoride enrichment in the groundwater, no studies have done on exposure analysis for biological components in Patan district, Gujarat, Western India. Considering its vital importance, this study strives to quantify the bioaccumulation of fluoride in seven different crops and vegetables, viz. Spinach and Mustard leaves, Cauliflower, Wheat grains, Amaranth seed, Radish, and Garlic grown in the potentially fluoride contaminated area. Result shows that the order for fluoride accumulation among different analyzed plants are spinach (63.3 mg/kg) > mustard (48.9 mg/kg) > cauliflower (41.1 mg/kg) > radish (35.7 mg/kg) > garlic (33.2 mg/kg) > amaranth seed (26.7 mg/kg) > wheat (22.5 mg/kg). Fluoride concentration was highest in leafy vegetable, whereas the lowest was in wheat grains. Finally, estimated daily intake (EDI) and hazard index (HI) were calculated for local consumers of different age group, where it was found that young people (4-15 years) are at the highest risk of fluorosis. This study is relevant for better crop management, like substituting crops with woody plants, flowers, and people awareness.

Keywords: fluoride, bioaccumulation, health risk, water

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
1641 Pool Fire Tests of Dual Purpose Casks for Spent Nuclear Fuel

Authors: K. S. Bang, S. H. Yu, J. C. Lee, K. S. Seo, S. H. Lee

Abstract:

Dual purpose casks are used for storage and transport of spent nuclear fuel assemblies. Therefore, they satisfy the requirements prescribed in the Korea NSSC Act 2013-27, the IAEA Safety Standard Series No. SSR-6, and US 10 CFR Part 71. These regulatory guidelines classify the dual purpose cask as a Type B package, and state that a Type B package must be able to withstand a temperature of 800°C for a period of 30 min. Therefore, a fire test was conducted using a one-sixth slice of a real cask to estimate the thermal integrity of the dual purpose cask at a temperature of 800°C. The neutron shield reached a maximum temperature of 183°C, which indicates that dual purpose cask was properly insulated from the heat of the flames. The temperature rise of the basket during the fire test was 29°C. Therefore, the integrity of a spent nuclear fuel is estimated to be maintained. The temperature was lower when a cooling pin was installed. The neutron shielding was therefore protected adequately by cooling pin. As a result, the thermal integrity of the dual purpose cask was maintained and the cask is judged to be sufficiently safe for temperatures under 800°C.

Keywords: dual purpose cask, spent nuclear fuel, pool fire test, integrity

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1640 New Estimation in Autoregressive Models with Exponential White Noise by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm

Authors: Suparman Suparman

Abstract:

A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.

Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

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1639 Agricultural Solid Wastes Generation in Nigeria and Their Recycling Potentials into Building Materials

Authors: Usman Aliyu Jalam, Shuaibu Alolo Sumaila, Sa’adiya Iliyasu Muhammed

Abstract:

Modern building industry lays much emphasis on sophisticated materials that have high embodied energy with intrinsic distinctiveness for damaging the environment. But today, advances in solid waste management have resulted in alternative building materials as partial or complete replacement of the conventional materials like cement, aggregate etc particularly for low cost housing. Investigations carried out revealed that an estimated 18.0 million tonnes of agricultural solid wastes are being generated in Nigeria annually. This constitutes a problem not only to the natural environment but also to the built environment more particularly with the way the wastes are being dispose of. The paper has discussed the present status on the generation and utilisation of agricultural solid wastes, their recycling potentials and environmental implications. It further discovered that although considerable quantity of these wastes were found to have the potentials of being recycled as building materials, the availability of the appropriate technology remains a big challenge in the country. Moreover, majority of the wastes type have gained popularity as fuel. As such, the economic and environmental benefits of recycling the wastes and the use of the wastes as fuel need further investigation.

Keywords: agricultural waste, building, environment, materials, Nigeria

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1638 The Utilization of Bamboo for Wood Bamboo Composite in Lieu of Materials Furniture: Case Study of Furniture Industry in Jepara Indonesia

Authors: Muhammad Nurrizka Ramadhan

Abstract:

Today,Demand for wood increase in rapid rate. Wood is widely used for many things range from building materials to furniture materials. This makes the forest area in Indonesia dropped dramatically, it is estimated that the area of Indonesiaan forest in 2020 will be only about 16 million hectares. The more forest in Indonesia loss, people are required to look for another material to subtitute wood for the furniture. Jepara, a city with the largest furniture industry in Indonesia, requires a large supply of wood, it can reach 300.000 – 500.000 cubic meters per year. Most of the furniture in Jepara use teak, mahogany, and rosewood. Though teak wood is a rare species that must be protected. Today the availability of bamboo in Indonesia is very big. With cheap price, and the period of rapid growth makes bamboo can be used as a substitute for wood for the furniture industry in the future. By making use bamboo to make wood bamboo composite to replace the use of wood for furniture material. This paper is about the use of bamboo as a substitute for wood bamboo composite for the furniture industry. Expected in future, wood can be replaced by a wood bamboo composite.

Keywords: bamboo, composite, furniture, wood

Procedia PDF Downloads 375
1637 Thin Films of Copper Oxide Deposited by Sol-Gel Spin Coating Method: Effect of Annealing Temperature on Structural and Optical Properties

Authors: Touka Nassim, Tabli Dalila

Abstract:

In this study, CuO thin films synthesized via simple sol-gel method, have been deposited on glass substrates by the spin coating technique and annealed at various temperatures. Samples were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscope (SEM), Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) and Raman spectroscopy, and UV-visible spectroscopy. The structural characterization by XRD reveals that the as prepared films were tenorite phase and have a high level of purity and crystallinity. The crystallite size of the CuO films was affected by the annealing temperature and was estimated in the range 20-31.5 nm. SEM images show a homogeneous distribution of spherical nanoparticles over the surface of the annealed films at 350 and 450 °C. Vibrational Spectroscopy revealed vibration modes specific to CuO with monolithic structure on the Raman spectra at 289 cm−1 and on FT-IR spectra around 430-580 cm−1. Electronic investigation performed by UV–Visible spectroscopy showed that the films have high absorbance in the visible region and their optical band gap increases from 2.40 to 2.66 eV (blue shift) with increasing annealing temperature from 350 to 550 °C.

Keywords: Sol-gel, Spin coating method, Copper oxide, Thin films

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1636 Estimating Visitor’s Willingness to Pay for the Conservation Fund: Sustainable Financing Approach in Protected Areas in Ethiopia

Authors: Sintayehu Aynalem Aseres, Raminder Kaur Sira

Abstract:

Increasingly, protected areas have been confronting with inadequate conservation funds that make it tough to antithesis the continuing of annihilation. The problem is even grave in developing countries, where Protected Areas (Pas) are mainly government-administered. Subsequently, it needs a strong effort to toughen the self-financing capability of PAs by ripening alternative sources of sustainable financing for realizing the conservation goals, in particular, to save the remaining natural planet. This study, therefore, designed to estimate visitors’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the additional conservation fees using a contingent valuation method. The effect relationship between WTP and both socio-demographic and non-economic factors was scrutinized by binary logistic regression. The mean WTP of foreign visitors has estimated at US$ 7.4 and for that of domestic visitors at US$1, with annual aggregate revenue of US$29, 200. The WTP was strongly influenced by income, satisfaction, environmental concern and attitude. The study has policy implications for the conservationists and park authorities to estimate the non-use values of PAs for developing market-based conservation instruments.

Keywords: conservation, ecotourism, sustainable financing, willingness to pay, protected areas, bale mountains national park

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1635 Runoff Simulation by Using WetSpa Model in Garmabrood Watershed of Mazandaran Province, Iran

Authors: Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammad Nohtani, Saeedeh Khaledi

Abstract:

Hydrological models are applied to simulation and prediction floods in watersheds. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous and physically model with daily or hourly time step that explains of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave Equation which depend on the slope, velocity and flow route characteristics. Garmabrood watershed located in Mazandaran province in Iran and passing over coordinates 53° 10´ 55" to 53° 38´ 20" E and 36° 06´ 45" to 36° 25´ 30"N. The area of the catchment is about 1133 km2 and elevations in the catchment range from 213 to 3136 m at the outlet, with average slope of 25.77 %. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 61% and 83.17 % respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, runoff, flood prediction

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1634 A Medical Resource Forecasting Model for Emergency Room Patients with Acute Hepatitis

Authors: R. J. Kuo, W. C. Cheng, W. C. Lien, T. J. Yang

Abstract:

Taiwan is a hyper endemic area for the Hepatitis B virus (HBV). The estimated total number of HBsAg carriers in the general population who are more than 20 years old is more than 3 million. Therefore, a case record review is conducted from January 2003 to June 2007 for all patients with a diagnosis of acute hepatitis who were admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of a well-known teaching hospital. The cost for the use of medical resources is defined as the total medical fee. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) is firstly employed to reduce the number of dimensions. Support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) are then used to develop the forecasting model. A total of 117 patients meet the inclusion criteria. 61% patients involved in this study are hepatitis B related. The computational result shows that the proposed PCA-SVR model has superior performance than other compared algorithms. In conclusion, the Child-Pugh score and echogram can both be used to predict the cost of medical resources for patients with acute hepatitis in the ED.

Keywords: acute hepatitis, medical resource cost, artificial neural network, support vector regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 421
1633 Grid-Connected Doubly-Fed Induction Generator under Integral Backstepping Control Combined with High Gain Observer

Authors: Oluwaseun Simon Adekanle, M'hammed Guisser, Elhassane Abdelmounim, Mohamed Aboulfatah

Abstract:

In this paper, modeling and control of a grid connected 660KW Doubly-Fed Induction Generator wind turbine is presented. Stator flux orientation is used to realize active-reactive power decoupling to enable independent control of active and reactive power. The recursive Integral Backstepping technique is used to control generator speed to its optimum value and to obtain unity power factor. The controller is combined with High Gain Observer to estimate the mechanical torque of the machine. The most important advantage of this combination of High Gain Observer and the Integral Backstepping controller is the annulation of static error that may occur due to incertitude between the actual value of a parameter and its estimated value by the controller. Simulation results under Matlab/Simulink show the robustness of this control technique in presence of parameter variation.

Keywords: doubly-fed induction generator, field orientation control, high gain observer, integral backstepping control

Procedia PDF Downloads 360
1632 Welfare Estimation in a General Equilibrium Model with Cities

Authors: Oded Hochman

Abstract:

We first show that current measures of welfare changes in the whole economy do not apply to an economy with cities. In addition, since such measures are defined over a partial equilibrium, they capture only partially the effect of a welfare change. We then define a unique and additive measure that we term the modified economic surplus (mES) which fully captures the welfare effects caused by a change in the price of a nationally traded good. We show that the price change causes, on the one hand a change of land rents in the economy and, on the other hand, an equal change of mES that can be estimated by measuring areas in the price-quantity national demand and supply plane. We construct for each city a cost function from which we derive a city’s and, after aggregation, an economy-wide demand and supply functions of nationwide prices and of either the unearned incomes (Marshalian functions) or the utility levels (compensated functions).

Keywords: city cost function, welfare measures, modified compensated variation, modified economic surplus, unearned income function, differential land rents, city size

Procedia PDF Downloads 318
1631 Synthesis and Characterization of Polypyrrole-Coated Non-Conducting Cellulosic Substrate and Modified by Copper Oxide

Authors: A. Hamam, D. Oukil, A. Dib, L. Makhloufi

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to synthesize modified Polypyrrole films (PPy) containing nanoparticles of copper oxides onto a non conducting cellulosic substrate. Firstly, the chemical polymerization of polypyrrole onto cellulosic substrate is carried out using FeCl3 as an oxidant and Pyrrole as monomer. Different parameters were optimized (monomer concentration, duration of the experiment, nature of supporting electrolyte, temperature, etc.) in order to obtain films with different thickness and different morphologies. Thickness and topography of different PPy deposits were estimated by a profilometer apparatus. The electrochemical reactivity of the obtained electrodes were tested by cyclic voltammetry technique (CV) and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). Secondly, the modification of the PPy film surface by incorporation of copper oxide nanonoparticles is conducted by applying a galvanostatic procedure from CuCl2 solution. Surface characterization has been carried out using scanning microscope (SEM) coupled with energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX), Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The analysis showed the presence of the copper oxide nanoparticles (CuO) in the polymer films with dimensions less than 50 nm.

Keywords: polypyrrole, modified electrode, cellulosic substrate, copper oxide

Procedia PDF Downloads 449
1630 Failure Analysis and Fatigue Life Estimation of a Shaft of a Rotary Draw Bending Machine

Authors: B. Engel, Sara Salman Hassan Al-Maeeni

Abstract:

Human consumption of the Earth's resources increases the need for a sustainable development as an important ecological, social, and economic theme. Re-engineering of machine tools, in terms of design and failure analysis, is defined as steps performed on an obsolete machine to return it to a new machine with the warranty that matches the customer requirement. To understand the future fatigue behavior of the used machine components, it is important to investigate the possible causes of machine parts failure through design, surface, and material inspections. In this study, the failure modes of the shaft of the rotary draw bending machine are inspected. Furthermore, stress and deflection analysis of the shaft subjected to combined torsion and bending loads are carried out by an analytical method and compared with a finite element analysis method. The theoretical fatigue strength, correction factors, and fatigue life sustained by the shaft before damaged are estimated by creating a stress-cycle (S-N) diagram. In conclusion, it is seen that the shaft can work in the second life, but it needs some surface treatments to increase the reliability and fatigue life.

Keywords: failure analysis, fatigue life, FEM analysis, shaft, stress analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 299