Search results for: climate change risks

Authors: Akinwale Adeyinka

Abstract:

Critical natural resources such as clean ground water, fertile topsoil, and biodiversity are diminishing at an exponential rate, orders of magnitude above that at which they can be regenerated. Based on news on world population record, over 6 billion people on earth, and almost a quarter million added each day, the scale of human activity and environmental impact is unprecedented. Soaring human population growth over the past century has created a visible challenge to earth’s life support systems. In addition, the world faces an onslaught of other environmental threats including degenerated global climate change, global warming, intensified acid rain, stratospheric ozone depletion and health threatening pollution. Overpopulation and the use of deleterious technologies combine to increase the scale of human activities to a level that underlies these entire problems. These intensifying trends cannot continue indefinitely, hopefully, through increased understanding and valuation of ecosystems and their services, earth’s basic life-support system will be protected for the future.To say the fact, human civilization is now the dominant cause of change in the global environment. Now that our relationship to the earth has change so utterly, we have to see that change and understand its implication. These are actually 2 aspects to the challenges which we should believe. The first is to realize that our power to harm the earth can indeed have global and even permanent effects. Second is to realize that the only way to understand our new role as a co-architect of nature is to see ourselves as part of a complex system that does operate according to the same simple rules of cause and effect we are used to. So understanding the physical/biological dimension of earth system is an important precondition for making sensible policy to protect our environment. Because we believe Sustainable Development Is a matter of reconciling respect for the environment, social equity and economic profitability. Also, we strongly believe that environmental protection is naturally about reducing air and water pollution, but it also includes the improvement of the environmental performance of existing process. That is why we should always have it at the heart of our business that the environmental problem is not our effect on the environment so much as our relationship with the environment. We should always think of being environmental friendly in our operation.

Keywords: Stratospheric ozone depletion ion , Climate Change, global warming, social equity and economic profitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Sasan Aryaee, Mahdi Ravanshadnia

Abstract:

Naturally, any activity is associated with risk, and humans have understood this concept from very long times ago and seek to identify its factors and sources. On the one hand, proper risk management can cause problems such as delays and unforeseen costs in the development projects, temporary or permanent loss of services, getting lost or information theft, complexity and limitations in processes, unreliable information caused by rework, holes in the systems and many such problems. In the present study, a model has been presented to rank the environmental risks of oil and gas projects. The statistical population of the study consists of all executives active in the oil and gas fields, that the statistical sample is selected randomly. In the framework of the proposed method, environmental risks of oil and gas projects were first extracted, then a questionnaire based on these indicators was designed based on Likert scale and distributed among the statistical sample. After assessing the validity and reliability of the questionnaire, environmental risks of oil and gas projects were ranked using the VIKOR method of multiple-criteria decision-making. The results showed that the best options for HSE planning of oil and gas projects that caused the reduction of risks and personal injury and casualties and less than other options is costly for the project and it will add less time to the duration of implementing the project is the entering of dye to the environment when painting the generator pond and the presence of the rigger near the crane.

Keywords: ranking, multi-criteria decision making, oil and gas projects, HSEmanagement, environmental risks

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Carmen E. Zapata, José F. Jiménez, Mauricio Ramiréz, Natalia A. Cano

Abstract:

The majority of the urban areas in Latin America face the challenges associated with city planning and development problems, attributed to human, technical, and economical factors; therefore, we cannot ignore the issues related to climate change because the city modifies the natural landscape in a significant way transforming the radiation balance and heat content in the urbanized areas. These modifications provoke changes in the temperature distribution known as “the heat island effect”. According to this phenomenon, we have the need to conceive the urban planning based on climatological patterns that will assure its sustainable functioning, including the particularities of the climate variability. In the present study, it is identified the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) in the Metropolitan Area of the Aburrá Valley (Colombia) with the objective of relocate the air quality monitoring stations as a partial solution to the problem of how to measure representative air quality levels in a city for a local scale, but with instruments that measure in the microscale.

Keywords: air quality, monitoring, local climatic zones, valley, monitoring stations

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Mohammed Taleb

Abstract:

Morocco is characterized by an important genetic diversity represented by a rich and varied flora with 5211 species and subspecies and many natural ecosystems. Biodiversity and natural ecosystems provide the local population with highly diversified services represented by aromatic and medicinal plants, forage plants, melliferous plants, firewood, lumber, mushrooms, etc. Ecosystem services are currently subject to many pressures: overgrazing and deforestation, climate change, including increased drought, urbanization and forest fire. Conscious of the risks that weigh on biodiversity and ecosystem services, Morocco had made an important effort to reverse the tendencies by developing a consistent biodiversity conservation strategy focused on in-situ and ex-situ conservation. This presentation will be focused on the current state of biodiversity and ecosystem services and their role for the human development and their decline under the action of different pressures (grazing, timber harvest, harvesting of medicinal and aromatic plants, charcoal making...) while emphasizing efforts constructed by Morocco to conserve and sustainably manage biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Keywords: morocco, biodiversity, ecosystem services, local population

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

Abstract:

Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Abdullah Alotaiq

Abstract:

The transition to low-carbon power generation is essential for mitigating climate change and achieving sustainability. This process, however, entails considerable costs, and understanding the factors influencing these costs is critical. This is necessary to cater to the increasing demand for low-carbon electricity across the heating, industry, and transportation sectors. A crucial aspect of this transition is identifying cost-effective and feasible paths for decarbonization, which is integral to global climate mitigation efforts. It is concluded that hybrid solutions, combining different low-carbon technologies, are optimal for minimizing costs and enhancing flexibility. These solutions also address the challenges associated with phasing out existing fossil fuel-based power plants and broadening the spectrum of low-carbon power generation options.

Keywords: review, power generation, energy transition, decarbonisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: M. Irannezhad, E. H. N. Gashti, U. Moback, B. Kløve

Abstract:

Climate change because of increases in concentration level of greenhouse gases emissions to the atmosphere will result in mean sea level rise about +1 m by 2100. To prevent coastal floods resulted from the sea level rising, different flood control structures have been built, e.g. the Thames barrier on the Thames River in London (UK), with acceptable protection levels at least so far. Gothenburg located on the southwest coast of Sweden, with the River Göta älv running through it, is one of vulnerable cities to the accelerated rises in mean sea level. Developing a water level model by MATLAB, we evaluated using a sea barrage in the Göta älv River as the flood control structure for protecting the Gothenburg city during this century. Considering three operational scenarios for two barriers in upstream and downstream, the highest sea level was estimated to + 2.95 m above the current mean sea level by 2100. To verify flood protection against such high sea levels, both barriers have to be closed. To prevent high water level in the River Göta älv reservoir, the barriers would be open when the sea level is low. The suggested flood control structures would successfully protect the city from flooding events during this century.

Keywords: climate change, flood control structures, gothenburg, sea level rising, water level mode

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Aylin Mohammadalipour Tofighi

Abstract:

Marine-based geoengineering methods, proposed to mitigate climate change, operate primarily through two mechanisms: reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and diminishing solar absorption by the oceans. While these approaches promise beneficial outcomes, they are fraught with environmental, legal, ethical, and political challenges, necessitating robust international governance. This paper underscores the critical role of international cooperation within the governance framework, offering a focused analysis of existing international environmental mechanisms applicable to marine-based geoengineering governance. It evaluates the efficacy and limitations of current international legal structures, including treaties and organizations, in managing marine-based geoengineering, noting significant gaps such as the absence of specific regulations, dedicated international entities, and explicit governance mechanisms such as monitoring. To rectify these problems, the paper advocates for concrete steps to bolster international cooperation. These include the formulation of dedicated marine-based geoengineering guidelines within international agreements, the establishment of specialized supervisory entities, and the promotion of transparent, global consensus-building. These recommendations aim to foster governance that is environmentally sustainable, ethically sound, and politically feasible, thereby enhancing knowledge exchange, spurring innovation, and advancing the development of marine-based geoengineering approaches. This study emphasizes the importance of collaborative approaches in managing the complexities of marine-based geoengineering, contributing significantly to the discourse on international environmental governance in the face of rapid climate and technological changes.

Keywords: climate change, environmental law, international cooperation, international governance, international law, marine-based geoengineering, marine law, regulatory frameworks

Procedia PDF Downloads 58

Authors: Rebecca A. Deek

Abstract:

There is evidence that erratic and extreme weather is becoming a common occurrence, and even predictions that this will become even more frequent and more severe. It also appears that the severity of earthquakes is intensifying. Some observers believe that human conduct has given reasons for such change; others attribute this to environmental and geological cycles. However, as some physicists, environmental scientists, politicians, and others continue to debate the connection between weather events, seismic activities, and climate change, other scientists, engineers, and urban planners are exploring how can our habitat become more responsive and resilient to such phenomena. There are a number of recent instances of nature’s destructive events that provide basis for the development of defensive measures.

Keywords: biomimicry, natural disasters, protection of human lives, resilient infrastructures

Procedia PDF Downloads 492

Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

Abstract:

This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine-learning methods, such as random forest, are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. Random Forest showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the Random Forest method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods.

Keywords: cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Rohini Sharma, Chandan Kumar Sahoo, Rama Krishna Gupta Potnuru

Abstract:

Strong competitive forces and requirements to achieve efficiency are forcing the organizations to realize the necessity and inevitability of change. What's more, the trend does not appear to be abating. Researchers have estimated that about two thirds of change project fails. Empirical evidences further shows that organizations invest significantly in the planned change but people side is accounted for in a token or instrumental way, which is identified as one of the important reason, why change endeavours fail. However, whatever be the reason for change, organizational change readiness must be gauged prior to the institutionalization of organizational change. Hence, in this study the influence of employee voice and employee involvement on organizational change readiness via commitment-to-change is examined, as it is an area yet to be extensively studied. Also, though a recent study has investigated the interrelationship between leadership, organizational change readiness and commitment to change, our study further examined these constructs in relation with employee voice and employee involvement that plays a consequential role for organizational change readiness. Further, integrated conceptual model weaving varied concepts relating to organizational readiness with focus on commitment to change as mediator was found to be an area, which required more theorizing and empirical validation, and this study rooted in an Indian public sector organization is a step in this direction. Data for the study were collected through a survey among employees of Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP), a unit of Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL); the first integrated Steel Plant in the public sector in India, for which stratified random sampling method was adopted. The schedule was distributed to around 700 employees, out of which 516 complete responses were obtained. The pre-validated scales were used for the study. All the variables in the study were measured on a five-point Likert scale ranging from “strongly disagree (1)” to “strongly agree (5)”. Structural equation modeling (SEM) using AMOS 22 was used to examine the hypothesized model, which offers a simultaneous test of an entire system of variables in a model. The study results shows that inter-relationship between employee voice and commitment-to-change, employee involvement and commitment-to-change and commitment-to-change and organizational change readiness were significant. To test the mediation hypotheses, Baron and Kenny’s technique was used. Examination of direct and mediated effect of mediators confirmed that commitment-to-change partially mediated the relation between employee involvement and organizational change readiness. Furthermore, study results also affirmed that commitment-to-change does not mediate the relation between employee involvement and organizational change readiness. The empirical exploration therefore establishes that it is important to harness employee’s valuable suggestions regarding change for building organizational change readiness. Regarding employee involvement, it was found that sharing information and involving people in decision-making, leads to a creation of participative climate, which educes employee commitment during change and commitment-to-change further, fosters organizational change readiness.

Keywords: commitment-to-change, change management, employee voice, employee involvement, organizational change readiness

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Eyasu Markos Woldesemayat, Paolo Vincenzo Genovese

Abstract:

In recent years with an increase in the concentration of Green House Gases (GHG), Climate Change (CC) externalities are mounting, regardless of governments, are scrambling to implement mitigation and adaptation measures. With multiple social, economic and environmental benefits, Green Infrastructure (GI) has evolved as a highly valuable policy tool to promote sustainable development and smart growth by meeting multiple objectives towards quality of life. However, despite the wide range of benefits, it's uptake in African cities such as Addis Ababa is very low due to several constraining factors. This study, through content analysis and key informant interviews, examined barriers for the uptake of GI among spatial planners in Addis Ababa. Added to this, the study has revealed that the spatial planners had insufficient knowledge about GI planning principles such as multi-functionality, integration, and connectivity, and multiscale. The practice of implementing these holistic principles in urban spatial planning is phenomenally nonexistent. The findings also revealed 20 barriers categorized under four themes, i.e., institutional, socio-cultural, resource, and cognitive barriers. Similarly, it was identified that institutional barriers (0.756), socio-cultural barriers (0.730), cognitive barriers (0.700) and resource barriers (0.642), respectively, are the foremost impending factors for the promotion of GI in Addis Ababa. It was realized that resource barriers were the least constraining factor for enshrining the GI uptake in the city. Strategies to hasten the adoption of GI in the city mainly focus on improving political will, harmonization sectorial plans, improve spatial planning and implementation practice, prioritization of GI in all planning activities, enforcement of environmental laws, introducing collaborative GI governance, creating strong and stable institutions and raising awareness on the need to conserve environment and CC externalities through education and outreach mechanisms.

Keywords: Addis Ababa, climate change, green infrastructure, spatial planning, spatial planners

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Mehtab Alam

Abstract:

Sustainable tourism practices require to improve the decreased performance levels in phases of change management for image branding. This paper addresses the innovative approach of using sustainable tourism for image branding as a contemporary tool of foreign policy. The sustainable tourism-based foreign policy promotes cultural values, green tourism, economy, and image management for the avoidance of rising global conflict. The mixed-method approach (quantitative 382 surveys, qualitative 11 interviews at saturation point) implied for the data analysis. The research finding provides the potential of using sustainable tourism by implying skills and knowledge, capacity, and personal factors of change management in improving tourism-based performance levels. It includes the valuable tourism performance role for the success of a foreign policy through sustainable tourism. Change management in tourism-based foreign policy provides the destination readiness for international engagement and curbing of climate issues through green tourism. The research recommends the impact of change management in improving the tourism-based performance levels of image branding for a coercive foreign policy. The paper’s future direction for the immediate implementation of tourism-based foreign policy is to overcome the contemporary issues of travel marketing management, green infrastructure, and cross-border regulation.

Keywords: decrease performance levels, change management, sustainable tourism, image branding, foreign policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Signe Voltelen, Kristin Astrup Aas

Abstract:

In the Scandinavian cities, there is a raised focus on the potential of using urban agriculture in city development, both as a tool for handling challenges provoked by climate change and to develop new, and stronger social communities. During the last couple of years, Copenhagen has experienced an increase in extreme weather resulting in dramatical floods with huge humanitarian and economic consequences. As an approach for climate adaption and mitigation the government has made a strategy for changing a significant amount of the cities hard surfaces into green and absorbing surfaces. Including urban farms and gardens. In close collaboration with the municipality, it has been possible to implement citizen-run gardens under the different concepts climate adaption and food literacy. Like other European cities, Copenhagen has a historical tradition of small-scale farming for food security inside the city, and in the outskirts of the urban area. Lately, this tradition has gotten new relevance, and new initiatives are popping up. In addition to providing local food, the urban farm becomes a semi-public, semi-private room that invites to community and integration across ethnicity, social background, and age. The direct interaction in the process of farming creates a connection between the urban and the rural and are educational for people growing up and living their whole life in the dense city. In the paper, three local example models of urban agriculture are presented, and the experiences of their potential as tools for developing social and environmental sustainable cities is examined.

Keywords: city development, climate mitigation, community building, urban agriculture, urban- rural transition, food security

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Pankaj Kumar

Abstract:

Rapid global changes resulted in unfavorable hydrological, ecological, and environmental changes and cumulatively affected natural resources. As a result, the local communities become vulnerable to water stress, poor hygiene, the spread of diseases, food security, etc.. However, the central point for this vulnerability revolves around water resources and the way people interrelate with the hydrological system. Also, most of the efforts to minimize the adverse effect of global changes are centered on the mitigation side. Hence, countries with poor adaptive capacities and poor governance suffer most in case of disasters. However, several transdisciplinary numerical tools are well designed and are capable of answering “what-if questions” through scenario analysis using a system approach. This study has predicted the future water environment in Marikina River in the National Capital Region, Metro Manila of Philippines, using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP), an integrated water resource management tool. Obtained results can answer possible adaptation measures along with their associated uncertainties. It also highlighted various challenges for the policy planners to design adaptation countermeasures as well as to track the progress of achieving SDG 6.0.

Keywords: water quality, Philippines, climate change adaptation, hydrological simulation, wastewater management, weap

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Evangelos Tsakalos, Maria Kazantzaki, Eleni Filippaki, Yannis Bassiakos

Abstract:

The coastal areas of the Mediterranean have been extensively affected by the transgressive event that followed the Last Glacial Maximum, with many studies conducted regarding the stratigraphic configuration of coastal sediments around the Mediterranean. The coastal zone of the Messologi area, western Greece, consists of low relief beaches containing low cliffs and eroded dunes, a fact which, in combination with the rising sea level and tectonic subsidence of the area, has led to substantial coastal. Coastal vulnerability assessment is a useful means of identifying areas of coastline that are vulnerable to impacts of climate change and coastal processes, highlighting potential problem areas. Commonly, coastal vulnerability assessment takes the form of an ‘index’ that quantifies the relative vulnerability along a coastline. Here we make use of the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) methodology by Thieler and Hammar-Klose, by considering geological features, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, shoreline erosion/accretion rates, and mean significant wave height as well as mean tide range to assess the present-day vulnerability of the coastal zone of Messologi area. In light of this, an impact assessment is performed under three different sea level rise scenarios, and adaptation measures to control climate change events are proposed. This study contributes toward coastal zone management practices in low-lying areas that have little data information, assisting decision-makers in adopting best adaptations options to overcome sea level rise impact on vulnerable areas similar to the coastal zone of Messologi.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, coastal erosion, sea level rise, GIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: H. M. El-Askary, S. A. Abd El-Mawla, M. Allali, M. M. El-Hattab, M. El-Raey, A. M. Farahat, M. Kafatos, S. Nickovic, S. K. Park, A. K. Prasad, C. Rakovski, W. Sprigg, D. Struppa, A. Vukovic

Abstract:

A clear distinction between weather and climate is a necessity because while they are closely related, there are still important differences. Climate change is identified when we compute the statistics of the observed changes in weather over space and time. In this work we will show how the changing climate contribute to the frequency, magnitude and extent of different extreme events using a multi sensor approach with some synergistic modeling activities. We are exploring satellite observations of dust over North Africa, Gulf Region and the Indo Gangetic basin as well as dust versus anthropogenic pollution events over the Delta region in Egypt and Seoul through remote sensing and utilize the behavior of the dust and haze on the aerosol optical properties. Dust impact on the retreat of the glaciers in the Himalayas is also presented. In this study we also focus on the identification and monitoring of a massive dust plume that blew off the western coast of Africa towards the Atlantic on October 8th, 2012 right before the development of Hurricane Sandy. There is evidence that dust aerosols played a non-trivial role in the cyclogenesis process of Sandy. Moreover, a special dust event "An American Haboob" in Arizona is discussed as it was predicted hours in advance because of the great improvement we have in numerical, land–atmosphere modeling, computing power and remote sensing of dust events. Therefore we performed a full numerical simulation to that event using the coupled atmospheric-dust model NMME–DREAM after generating a mask of the potentially dust productive regions using land cover and vegetation data obtained from satellites. Climate change also contributes to the deterioration of different marine habitats. In that regard we are also presenting some work dealing with change detection analysis of Marine Habitats over the city of Hurghada, Red Sea, Egypt. The motivation for this work came from the fact that coral reefs at Hurghada have undergone significant decline. They are damaged, displaced, polluted, stepped on, and blasted off, in addition to the effects of climate change on the reefs. One of the most pressing issues affecting reef health is mass coral bleaching that result from an interaction between human activities and climatic changes. Over another location, namely California, we have observed that it exhibits highly-variable amounts of precipitation across many timescales, from the hourly to the climate timescale. Frequently, heavy precipitation occurs, causing damage to property and life (floods, landslides, etc.). These extreme events, variability, and the lack of good, medium to long-range predictability of precipitation are already a challenge to those who manage wetlands, coastal infrastructure, agriculture and fresh water supply. Adding on to the current challenges for long-range planning is climate change issue. It is known that La Niña and El Niño affect precipitation patterns, which in turn are entwined with global climate patterns. We have studied ENSO impact on precipitation variability over different climate divisions in California. On the other hand the Nile Delta has experienced lately an increase in the underground water table as well as water logging, bogging and soil salinization. Those impacts would pose a major threat to the Delta region inheritance and existing communities. There has been an undergoing effort to address those vulnerabilities by looking into many adaptation strategies.

Keywords: remote sensing, modeling, long range transport, dust storms, North Africa, Gulf Region, India, California, climate extremes, sea level rise, coral reefs

Procedia PDF Downloads 472

Authors: Shih-Kuei Lin

Abstract:

The characterization of the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates is developed in this study under the presence of Markov jump risks, when the term structure of the interest rates is modeled through simple forward rates. We consider Markov jump risks by allowing randomness in jump sizes, independence between jump sizes and jump times. The Markov jump diffusion model is used to capture empirical phenomena and to accurately describe interest jump risks in a financial market. We derive the arbitrage-free model of simple forward rates under the spot measure. Moreover, the analytical pricing formulas for a cap and a floor are derived under the forward measure when the jump size follows a lognormal distribution. In our empirical analysis, we find that the LIBOR market model with Markov jump risk better accounts for changes from/to different states and different rates.

Keywords: arbitrage-free, cap and floor, Markov jump diffusion model, simple forward rate model, volatility smile, EM algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 414

Authors: Ezgi Nevruz, Kasirga Yildirak, Ashis SenGupta

Abstract:

Comparing or ranking risks is the main motivating factor behind the human trait of making choices. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a preference theory approach that evaluates perception and bias in decision making under risk and uncertainty. We aim to investigate the aggregate claims of different risk classes in terms of their comparability and amenability to ordering when the impact of risk perception is considered. For this aim, we prioritize the aggregate claims taken as actuarial risks by using various stochastic ordering relations. In order to prioritize actuarial risks, we use stochastic relations such as stochastic dominance and stop-loss dominance that are proposed in the frame of partial order theory. We take into account the dependency of the individual claims exposed to similar environmental risks. At first, we modify the zero-utility premium principle in order to obtain a solution for the stop-loss premium under CPT. Then, we propose a stochastic stop-loss dominance of the aggregate claims and find a relation between the stop-loss dominance and the first-order stochastic dominance under the dependence assumption by using properties of the familiar as well as some emerging multivariate claim distributions.

Keywords: cumulative prospect theory, partial order theory, risk perception, stochastic dominance, stop-loss dominance

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: Sylvia Szabo, Thilini Navaratne, Indrajit Pal, Seree Park

Abstract:

Deltaic and coastal regions are often strategically important both from local and regional perspectives. While deltas are known to be bread baskets of the world, delta inhabitants often face the risk of food and nutritional insecurity. These risks are highly exacerbated by the impacts of climate and environmental change. While numerous regional studies examined the prevalence and the determinants of food security in specific delta and coastal regions, there is still a lack of a systematic analysis of the most widely used scientific food security indicators. In order to fill this gap, a systematic review was carried out using Covidence, a Cochrane-adopted systematic review processing software. Papers included in the review were selected from the SCOPUS, Thomson Reuters Web of Science, Science Direct, ProQuest, and Google Scholar databases. Both scientific papers and grey literature (e.g., reports by international organizations) were considered. The results were analyzed by food security components (access, availability, quality, and strategy) and by world regions. Suggestions for further food security, nutrition, and health research, as well as policy-related implications, are also discussed.

Keywords: delta regions, coastal, food security, indicators, systematic review

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Horaya Mostafa Ahmed

Abstract:

All cultures are inherently predisposed to change and, at the same time, to resisting change. There are dynamic processes operating that encourage the acceptance of new ideas and things, while there are others that encourage changeless stability. Despite the dramatic changes that have taken place in all human cultures, there are cultures still steadfast and resist change. These cultures resist through some culture mechanisms like, cultural boundaries, ethnocentrism, religion, and cultural relativity. So this paper is an attempt to discover these mechanisms of cultural change resistance and to ask is cultural change always required.

Keywords: cultural change, cultural boundaries, cultural relativity, ethnocentrism, religion, resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Youval Aberman, Jason E. Plaks

Abstract:

This research provides initial evidence that self-efficacy of mitigation behavior – the belief that one’s action can make a difference on the environment – can be implicitly inferred from the way numerical information is presented in environmental messages. The scientific community sees climate change as a pressing issue, but the general public tends to construe climate change as an abstract phenomenon that is psychologically distant. As such, a main barrier to pro-environmental behavior is that individuals often believe that their own behavior makes little to no difference on the environment. When it comes to communicating how the behavior of billions of individuals affects global climate change, it might appear valuable to aggregate those billions and present the shocking enormity of the resources individuals consume. This research provides initial evidence that, in fact, this strategy is ineffective; presenting large-scale aggregate data dilutes the contribution of the individual and impedes individuals’ motivation to act pro-environmentally. The high-impact, underrepresented behavior of eating a sustainable diet was chosen for the present studies. US Participants (total N = 668) were recruited online for a study on ‘meat and the environment’ and received information about some of resources used in meat production – water, CO2e, and feed – with numerical information that varied in its frame of reference. A ‘Nation’ frame of reference discussed the resources used in the beef industry, such as the billions of CO2e released daily by the industry, while a ‘Meal’ frame of reference presented the resources used in the production of a single beef dish. Participants completed measures of pro-environmental attitudes and behavioral intentions, either immediately (Study 1) or two days (Study 2) after reading the information. In Study 2 (n = 520) participants also indicated whether they consumed less or more meat than usual. Study 2 included an additional control condition that contained no environmental data. In Study 1, participants who read about meat production at a national level, compared to at a meal level, reported lower motivation to make ecologically conscious dietary choices and reported lower behavioral intention to change their diet. In Study 2, a similar pattern emerged, with the added insight that the Nation condition, but not the Meal condition, deviated from the control condition. Participants across conditions, on average, reduced their meat consumption in the duration of Study 2, except those in the Nation condition who remained unchanged. Presenting nation-wide consequences of human behavior is a double-edged sword: Framing in a large scale might reveal the relationship between collective actions and environmental issues, but it hinders the belief that individual actions make a difference.

Keywords: climate change communication, environmental concern, meat consumption, motivation

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Peng-Shao Chen, Yen-Jong Chen

Abstract:

In recent years, global warming, the dramatic change in energy prices and the exhaustion of natural resources illustrated that energy-related topic cannot be ignored. Despite the relationship between the cities and CO₂ emissions has been extensively studied in recent years, little attention has been paid to differences in the geographical location of the city. However, the geographical climate has a great impact on lifestyle from city to city, such as the type of buildings, the major industry of the city, etc. Therefore, the paper instigates empirically the effects of kinds of urban factors and CO₂ emissions with consideration of the different geographic, climatic zones which cities are located. Using the regression model and a dataset of urban agglomeration in East Asia cities with over one million population, including 2005, 2010, and 2015 three years, the findings suggest that the impact of urban factors on CO₂ emissions vary with the latitude of the cities. Surprisingly, all kinds of urban factors, including the urban population, the share of GDP in service industry, per capita income, and others, have different level of impact on the cities locate in the tropical climate zone and temperate climate zone. The results of the study analyze the impact of different urban factors on CO₂ emissions in urban area with different geographical climate zones. These findings will be helpful for the formulation of relevant policies for urban planners and policy makers in different regions.

Keywords: carbon emissions, urban agglomeration, urban factor, urban geography

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Érick Aragão Ribeiro, George André Pereira Thé, José Marques Soares

Abstract:

Several problems in industrial supervision software development projects may lead to the delay or cancellation of projects. These problems can be avoided or contained by using identification methods, analysis and control of risks. These procedures can give an overview of the possible problems that can happen in the projects and what are the immediate solutions. Therefore, we propose a risk management method applied to the teaching and development of industrial supervision software. The method is developed through a literature review and previous projects can be divided into phases of management and have basic features that are validated with experimental research carried out by mechatronics engineering students and professionals. The management is conducted through the stages of identification, analysis, planning, monitoring, control and communication of risks. Programmers use a method of prioritizing risks considering the gravity and the possibility of occurrence of the risk. The outputs of the method indicate which risks occurred or are about to happen. The first results indicate which risks occur at different stages of the project and what risks have a high probability of occurring. The results show the efficiency of the proposed method compared to other methods, showing the improvement of software quality and leading developers in their decisions. This new way of developing supervision software helps students identify design problems, evaluate software developed and propose effective solutions. We conclude that the risk management optimizes the development of the industrial process control software and provides higher quality to the product.

Keywords: supervision software, risk management, industrial supervision, project management

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Basit Aftab, Feng Zhongke

Abstract:

The land use/land cover change (LULCC) is a significant indicator sensitive to an area's environmental changes. As a rapidly developing capital city near the Himalayas Mountains, the city area of Islamabad, Pakistan, has expanded dramatically over the past 20 years. In order to precisely measure the impact of urbanization on the forest and agricultural lands, the Spatio-temporal analysis of LULCC was utilized, which helped us to know the impacts of urbanization, especially on ecosystem processes, biological cycles, and biodiversity. The Islamabad region's Multispectral Satellite Images (MSI) for 2000, 2010, and 2020 were employed as the remote sensing data source. Local documents of city planning, forest inventory and archives in the agriculture management departments were included to verify the image-derived result. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the built-up area increased to 48.3% (505.02 Km2). Meanwhile, the forest, agricultural, and barre land decreased to 28.9% (305.64 Km2), 10.04% (104.87 Km2), and 11.61% (121.30 Km2). The overall percentage change in land area between 2000 – 2020 was recorded maximum for the built-up (227.04%). Results revealed that the increase in the built-up area decreased forestland, barren, and agricultural lands (-0.36, -1.00 & -0.34). The association of built-up with respective years was positively linear (R2 = 0.96), whereas forestland, agricultural, and barren lands association with years were recorded as negatively linear (R2 = -0.29, R2 = -0.02, and R2 = -0.96). Large-scale deforestation leads to multiple negative impacts on the local environment, e.g., water degradation and climate change. It would finally affect the environment of the greater Himalayan region in some way. We further analyzed the driving forces of urbanization. It was determined by economic expansion, climate change, and population growth. We hope our study could be utilized to develop efforts to mitigate the consequences of deforestation and agricultural land damage, reducing greenhouse gas emissions while preserving the area's biodiversity.

Keywords: urbanization, Himalaya mountains, landuse landcover change (LULCC), remote sensing., multi-spectral satellite imagery

Procedia PDF Downloads 16

Authors: Nikkey Keshri

Abstract:

Arctic is a polar region located at the north of the earth. This consists of the Arctic Ocean and other parts of Canada, Russia, the United States, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland. Arctic has vast natural resources which are exploited with modern technology, and the economic opening up of Russia has given new opportunities. All these states have connected with the Arctic region for economic activities and this effect the region ecology. The pollution problem is a serious threat to the people health living around pollution sources. Due to the prevailing worldwide sea and air currents, the Arctic area is the fallout region for long-range transport pollutants, and in some places the concentrations exceed the levels of densely populated urban areas. The Arctic is especially vulnerable to the effects of global warming, as has become apparent in the melting sea ice in recent years. Climate models predict much greater warming in the Arctic than the global average, resulting in significant international attention to the region. The global warming has an adverse impact on the climate, indigenous people, wildlife, and infrastructure. However, there are several opportunities that have emerged in the form of shipping routes, resources, and new territories. The shipping route through the Arctic is a reality and is currently navigable for a few weeks during summers. There are large deposits of oil and gas, minerals and fish and the surrounding countries with Arctic coastlines are becoming quite assertive about exercising their sovereignty over the newfound wealth. The main part of the research is that how the opening of Northern Sea Route is providing opportunities or problem in the Arctic and it is becoming geopolitically important. It focuses on the interest Arctic and non Arctic states, their present and anticipated global geopolitical aims. The Northern Sea Route might open up due to climate changes and that Iceland might benefit or has an impact from the situation. Efforts will be made to answer the research question: ‘Whether Opening of North Sea Route is providing opportunities or becoming a risk for Arctic region?’ Every research has a structure which usually called design. In this research, both Qualitative and Quantitative method is used in terms of various literature, maps, pie- charts, etc to find out the answer for the research question. The aim of this research is to find out the impact of Opening of North Sea Route over Arctic region and how this make arctic geopolitically important. The aim behind this research is to find out the impact of climate change and how the particular geographical area is being affected.

Keywords: climate change, geopolitics, international relation, Northern Sea Route

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Alexander Guzman Urbina, Atsushi Aoyama

Abstract:

The sustainability of traditional technologies employed in energy and chemical infrastructure brings a big challenge for our society. Making decisions related with safety of industrial infrastructure, the values of accidental risk are becoming relevant points for discussion. However, the challenge is the reliability of the models employed to get the risk data. Such models usually involve large number of variables and with large amounts of uncertainty. The most efficient techniques to overcome those problems are built using Artificial Intelligence (AI), and more specifically using hybrid systems such as Neuro-Fuzzy algorithms. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a hybrid algorithm for risk assessment trained using near-miss accident data. As mentioned above the sustainability of traditional technologies related with energy and chemical infrastructure constitutes one of the major challenges that today’s societies and firms are facing. Besides that, the adaptation of those technologies to the effects of the climate change in sensible environments represents a critical concern for safety and risk management. Regarding this issue argue that social consequences of catastrophic risks are increasing rapidly, due mainly to the concentration of people and energy infrastructure in hazard-prone areas, aggravated by the lack of knowledge about the risks. Additional to the social consequences described above, and considering the industrial sector as critical infrastructure due to its large impact to the economy in case of a failure the relevance of industrial safety has become a critical issue for the current society. Then, regarding the safety concern, pipeline operators and regulators have been performing risk assessments in attempts to evaluate accurately probabilities of failure of the infrastructure, and consequences associated with those failures. However, estimating accidental risks in critical infrastructure involves a substantial effort and costs due to number of variables involved, complexity and lack of information. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a well trained algorithm for risk assessment using deep learning, which could be capable to deal efficiently with the complexity and uncertainty. The advantage point of the deep learning using near-miss accidents data is that it could be employed in risk assessment as an efficient engineering tool to treat the uncertainty of the risk values in complex environments. The basic idea of using a Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines is focused in the objective of improve the validity of the risk values learning from near-miss accidents and imitating the human expertise scoring risks and setting tolerance levels. In summary, the method of Deep Learning for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment involves a regression analysis called group method of data handling (GMDH), which consists in the determination of the optimal configuration of the risk assessment model and its parameters employing polynomial theory.

Keywords: deep learning, risk assessment, neuro fuzzy, pipelines

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Abdelouahab Errida, Bouchra Lotfi, Elalami Semma

Abstract:

In this paper, we try to address the topic of multiple change management by adopting an engineered research methodology, conducted within a Moroccan company during its implementation of several change projects that aim at improving its supply chain management performance. Firstly, we present the key concepts related to our research, namely change management, multiproject management and supply chain management. Then, we try to assess how the change management and multi-project management are applied in this company. Finally, we try to propose an approach that will help managers in dealing with multiple change projects. This approach proposes to integrate change management, project management and multi-project management for managing change projects according to three organizational levels: executive level, project portfolio level and change project level.

Keywords: change management, multi-project management, project management, change portfolio, supply chain management,

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Elissavet Feloni, Ioannis Kourtis, Konstantinos Kotsifakis, Evangelos Baltas

Abstract:

Water inadequacy in small dry islands scattered in the Aegean Sea (Greece) is a major problem regarding Water Resources Management (WRM), especially during the summer period due to tourism. In the present work, various WRM schemes are designed and presented. The WRM schemes take into account current infrastructure and include Rainwater Harvesting tanks and Reverse Osmosis Desalination Units. The energy requirements are covered mainly by wind turbines and/or a seawater pumped storage system. Sizing is based on the available data for population and tourism per island, after taking into account a slight increase in the population (up to 1.5% per year), and it guarantees at least 80% reliability for the energy supply and 99.9% for potable water. Evaluation of scenarios is carried out from a financial perspective, after calculating the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of each investment for a lifespan of 30 years. The wind-powered desalination plant was found to be the most cost-effective practice, from an economic point of view. Finally, in order to estimate the Climate Change (CC) impact, six different CC scenarios were investigated. The corresponding rate of on-grid versus off-grid energy required for ensuring the targeted reliability for the zero and each climatic scenario was investigated per island. The results revealed that under CC the grid-on energy required would increase and as a result, the reduction in wind turbines and seawater pumped storage systems’ reliability will be in the range of 4 to 44%. However, the range of this percentage change does not exceed 22% per island for all examined CC scenarios. Overall, CC is proposed to be incorporated into the design process for WRM-related projects. Acknowledgements: This research is co-financed by Greece and the European Union (European Social Fund - ESF) through the Operational Program «Human Resources Development, Education and Lifelong Learning 2014-2020» in the context of the project “Development of a combined rain harvesting and renewable energy-based system for covering domestic and agricultural water requirements in small dry Greek Islands” (MIS 5004775).

Keywords: small dry islands, water resources management, climate change, desalination, RES, seawater pumped storage system, rainwater harvesting

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: EMMANUEL DWAMENA SASU

Abstract:

International climate policy actions require countries under Paris Agreement to design instruments, provide support (financial and technical), and strengthen institutional capacity with tendency to transcending policy formulation to implementation and sustainability. Changes associated with moisture depletion has been a growing phenomenon; especially in developing countries with projected global GDP drop from 7% to 2% between 2005 and 2050. These developments have potential to adversely affect food production in feeding the growing world population, with corresponding rise in global hunger. Incongruously, there is global absence of a harmonized policy direction; capable of providing the required indicators on climate policies for monitoring sustainability of international agricultural development projects. We conduct extensive review and synthesis on existing limitations on global climate policy governance, agricultural food security and sustainability of international agricultural development projects, and conjecture the role of non-state and sub-national climate stakeholder engagements, and monitoring and evaluation strategies for improved climate policy action for sustaining international agricultural development projects.

Keywords: climate policy, agriculture, development projects, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 116