Search results for: General Linear Model

Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab, Amin Mohamed Nassar

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Wind energy is a fluctuating energy source unlike conventional power plants, thus, it is necessary to accurately predict short term wind speed to integrate wind energy in the electricity supply structure. To do so, we present a hybrid artificial intelligence model of short term wind speed prediction based on passive aggregation of the particle swarm optimization and neural networks. As a result, improvement of the prediction accuracy is obviously obtained compared to the standard artificial intelligence method.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, neural networks, particle swarm optimization, passive aggregation, wind speed prediction

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Authors: Richard McGregor, Carmen Reaiche, Stephen Boyle

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Cyber threats are a relatively recent phenomenon and offer cyber insurers a dynamic and intelligent peril. As individuals en mass become increasingly digitally dependent, Personal Cyber Insurance (PCI) offers an attractive option to mitigate cyber risk at a personal level. This abstract proposes a literature review that conceptualises a framework for siting Personal Cyber Insurance (PCI) within the context of cyberspace. The lack of empirical research within this domain demonstrates an immediate need to define the scope of PCI to allow cyber insurers to understand personal cyber risk threats and vectors, customer awareness, capabilities, and their associated needs. Additionally, this will allow cyber insurers to conceptualise appropriate frameworks allowing effective management and distribution of PCI products and services within a landscape often in-congruent with risk attributes commonly associated with traditional personal line insurance products. Cyberspace has provided significant improvement to the quality of social connectivity and productivity during past decades and allowed enormous capability uplift of information sharing and communication between people and communities. Conversely, personal digital dependency furnish ample opportunities for adverse cyber events such as data breaches and cyber-attacksthus introducing a continuous and insidious threat of omnipresent cyber risk–particularly since the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic and wide-spread adoption of ‘work-from-home’ practices. Recognition of escalating inter-dependencies, vulnerabilities and inadequate personal cyber behaviours have prompted efforts by businesses and individuals alike to investigate strategies and tactics to mitigate cyber risk – of which cyber insurance is a viable, cost-effective option. It is argued that, ceteris parabus, the nature of cyberspace intrinsically provides characteristic peculiarities that pose significant and bespoke challenges to cyber insurers, often in-congruent with risk attributes commonly associated with traditional personal line insurance products. These challenges include (inter alia) a paucity of historical claim/loss data for underwriting and pricing purposes, interdependencies of cyber architecture promoting high correlation of cyber risk, difficulties in evaluating cyber risk, intangibility of risk assets (such as data, reputation), lack of standardisation across the industry, high and undetermined tail risks, and moral hazard among others. This study proposes a thematic overview of the literature deemed necessary to conceptualise the challenges to issuing personal cyber coverage. There is an evident absence of empirical research appertaining to PCI and the design of operational business models for this business domain, especially qualitative initiatives that (1) attempt to define the scope of the peril, (2) secure an understanding of the needs of both cyber insurer and customer, and (3) to identify elements pivotal to effective management and profitable distribution of PCI - leading to an argument proposed by the author that postulates that the traditional general insurance customer journey and business model are ill-suited for the lineaments of cyberspace. The findings of the review confirm significant gaps in contemporary research within the domain of personal cyber insurance.

Keywords: cyberspace, personal cyber risk, personal cyber insurance, customer journey, business model

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Authors: Iman Zafarparandeh, Muzammil Mumtaz, Paniz Taherzadeh, Deniz Erbulut

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The instability in the atlantoaxial joint may occur due to cervical surgery, congenital anomalies, and trauma. There are different types of fixation techniques proposed for restoring the stability and preventing harmful neurological deterioration. Application of the screw constructs has become a popular alternative to the older techniques for stabilizing the joint. The main difference between the various screw constructs is the type of the screw which can be lateral mass screw, pedicle screw, transarticular screw, and translaminar screw. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of three popular screw constructs fixation techniques on the biomechanics of the atlantoaxial joint using the finite element (FE) method. A three-dimensional FE model of the upper cervical spine including the skull, C1 and C2 vertebrae, and groups of the existing ligaments were developed. The accurate geometry of the model was obtained from the CT data of a 35-year old male. Three screw constructs were designed to compare; Magerl transarticular screw (TA-Screw), Goel-Harms lateral mass screw and pedicle screw (LM-Screw and Pedicle-Screw), and Wright lateral mass screw and translaminar screw (LM-Screw and TL-Screw). Pure moments were applied to the model in the three main planes; flexion (Flex), extension (Ext), axial rotation (AR) and lateral bending (LB). The range of motion (ROM) of C0-C1 and C1-C2 segments for the implanted FE models are compared to the intact FE model and the in vitro study of Panjabi (1988). The Magerl technique showed less effect on the ROM of C0-C1 than the other two techniques in sagittal plane. In lateral bending and axial rotation, the Goel-Harms and Wright techniques showed less effect on the ROM of C0-C1 than the Magerl technique. The Magerl technique has the highest fusion rate as 99% in all loading directions for the C1-C2 segment. The Wright technique has the lowest fusion rate in LB as 79%. The three techniques resulted in the same fusion rate in extension loading as 99%. The maximum stress for the Magerl technique is the lowest in all load direction compared to other two techniques. The maximum stress in all direction was 234 Mpa and occurred in flexion with the Wright technique. The maximum stress for the Goel-Harms and Wright techniques occurred in lateral mass screw. The ROM obtained from the FE results support this idea that the fusion rate of the Magerl is more than 99%. Moreover, the maximum stress occurred in each screw constructs proves the less failure possibility for the Magerl technique. Another advantage of the Magerl technique is the less number of components compared to other techniques using screw constructs. Despite the benefits of the Magerl technique, there are drawbacks to using this method such as reduction of the C1 and C2 before screw placement. Therefore, other fixation methods such as Goel-Harms and Wright techniques find the solution for the drawbacks of the Magerl technique by adding screws separately to C1 and C2. The FE model implanted with the Wright technique showed the highest maximum stress almost in all load direction.

Keywords: cervical spine, finite element model, atlantoaxial, fixation technique

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Authors: Vinay Kumar Vanjakula, Frank Adam, Nils Goseberg, Christian Windt

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When a structure is installed on a seabed, the presence of the structure will influence the flow field around it. The changes in the flow field include, formation of vortices, turbulence generation, waves or currents flow breaking and pressure differentials around the seabed sediment. These changes allow the local seabed sediment to be carried off and results in Scour (erosion). These are a threat to the structure's stability. In recent decades, rapid developments of research work and the knowledge of scour On fixed structures (bridges and Monopiles) in rivers and oceans has been carried out, and very limited research work on scour and liquefaction for gravity anchors, particularly for floating Tension Leg Platform (TLP) substructures. Due to its importance and need for enhancement of knowledge in scour and liquefaction around marine structures, the MarTERA funded a three-year (2020-2023) research program called NuLIMAS (Numerical Modeling of Liquefaction Around Marine Structures). It’s a group consists of European institutions (Universities, laboratories, and consulting companies). The objective of this study is to build a numerical model that replicates the reality, which indeed helps to simulate (predict) underwater flow conditions and to study different marine scour and Liquefication situations. It helps to design a heavyweight anchor for the TLP substructure and to minimize the time and expenditure on experiments. And also, the achieved results and the numerical model will be a basis for the development of other design and concepts For marine structures. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) numerical model will build in OpenFOAM. A conceptual design of heavyweight anchor for TLP substructure is designed through taking considerations of available state-of-the-art knowledge on scour and Liquefication concepts and references to Previous existing designs. These conceptual designs are validated with the available similar experimental benchmark data and also with the CFD numerical benchmark standards (CFD quality assurance study). CFD optimization model/tool is designed as to minimize the effect of fluid flow, scour, and Liquefication. A parameterized model is also developed to automate the calculation process to reduce user interactions. The parameters such as anchor Lowering Process, flow optimized outer contours, seabed interaction study, and FSSI (Fluid-Structure-Seabed Interactions) are investigated and used to carve the model as to build an optimized anchor.

Keywords: gravity anchor, liquefaction, scour, computational fluid dynamics

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Authors: Chyong-Ru Liu, Wen-Shiung Huang, Wan-Ching Tang, Shan-Pei Chen

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Two of the biggest challenges companies involved in sports and exercise information services face are how to strengthen participation in virtual sports/exercise communities and how to increase the ongoing participatoriness of those communities. In the past, relatively little research has explored mechanisms for strengthening alignment practice and community response from the perspective of self-construal, and as such this study seeks to explore the self-construal of virtual sports/exercise communities, the role it plays in the emotional commitment of forming communities, and the factor that can strengthen alignment practice. Moreover, which factor of the emotional commitment of forming virtual communities have the effect of strengthening interference in the process of transforming customer citizenship behaviors? This study collected 625 responses from the two leading websites in terms of fan numbers in the provision of information on road race and marathon events in Taiwan, with model testing conducted through linear structural equation modelling and the bootstrapping technique to test the proposed hypotheses. The results proved independent construal had a stronger positive direct effect on affective commitment to fellow customers than did interdependent construal, and the influences of affective commitment to fellow customers in enhancing customer citizenship behavior. Public self-consciousness moderates the relationships among independent self-construal and interdependent self-construal on effective commitment to fellow customers. Perceived playfulness moderates the relationships between effective commitment to fellow customers and customer citizenship behavior. The findings of this study provide significant insights for the researchers and related organizations. From the theoretical perspective, this is empirical research that investigated the self-construal theory and responses (i.e., affective commitment to fellow customers, customer citizenship behavior) in virtual sports/exercise communities. We further explore how to govern virtual sports/exercise community participants’ heterogeneity through public self-consciousness mechanism to align participants’ affective commitment. Moreover, perceived playfulness has the effect of strengthening effective commitment to fellow customers with customer citizenship behaviors. The results of this study can provide a foundation for the construction of future theories and can be provided to related organizations for reference in their planning of virtual communities.

Keywords: self-construal theory, public self-consciousness, affective commitment, customer citizenship behavior

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Authors: Ali Mohammadi

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The present study is an attempt to investigate the influence of mythology on J.R.R. Tolkien's literary works in general and on Middle-Earth in particular. Moreover, despite the fact that mythology is usually regarded as a thing of the past predominantly found in the early works of literature, this inquiry reveals that how modern literary works can artistically benefit from mythological elements of Old English Era so as to enrich their content and stand out as innovative masterpieces. Indeed, having been a philologist and well-acquainted with mythological literature, Tolkien paved the way for a novel understanding of literature by bridging the gap between the old and the new. In the end, it was concluded that had mythology not been utilised by Tolkien, his works, and on top of all, Middle-Earth, would not have turned into a modern literary showpiece.

Keywords: literature, Middle-Earth, mythology, Tolkien

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Authors: Weigao. Wu, Stefano. Utili

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Based on the kinematic approach of limit analysis, a full set of upper bound solutions for the stability of homogeneous rock slopes subjected to tension cracks are obtained. The generalized Hoek-Brown failure criterion is employed to describe the non-linear strength envelope of rocks. In this paper, critical failure mechanisms are determined for cracks of known depth but unspecified location, cracks of known location but unknown depth, and cracks of unspecified location and depth. It is shown that there is a nearly up to 50% drop in terms of the stability factors for the rock slopes intersected by a tension crack compared with intact ones. Tables and charts of solutions in dimensionless forms are presented for ease of use by practitioners.

Keywords: Hoek-Brown failure criterion, limit analysis, rock slope, tension cracks

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Authors: Arindam Chaudhuri

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Classification of data has been actively used for most effective and efficient means of conveying knowledge and information to users. The prima face has always been upon techniques for extracting useful knowledge from data such that returns are maximized. With emergence of huge datasets the existing classification techniques often fail to produce desirable results. The challenge lies in analyzing and understanding characteristics of massive data sets by retrieving useful geometric and statistical patterns. We propose a supervised parallel fuzzy rough support vector machine (PFRSVM) for data classification in cloud environment. The classification is performed by PFRSVM using hyperbolic tangent kernel. The fuzzy rough set model takes care of sensitiveness of noisy samples and handles impreciseness in training samples bringing robustness to results. The membership function is function of center and radius of each class in feature space and is represented with kernel. It plays an important role towards sampling the decision surface. The success of PFRSVM is governed by choosing appropriate parameter values. The training samples are either linear or nonlinear separable. The different input points make unique contributions to decision surface. The algorithm is parallelized with a view to reduce training times. The system is built on support vector machine library using Hadoop implementation of MapReduce. The algorithm is tested on large data sets to check its feasibility and convergence. The performance of classifier is also assessed in terms of number of support vectors. The challenges encountered towards implementing big data classification in machine learning frameworks are also discussed. The experiments are done on the cloud environment available at University of Technology and Management, India. The results are illustrated for Gaussian RBF and Bayesian kernels. The effect of variability in prediction and generalization of PFRSVM is examined with respect to values of parameter C. It effectively resolves outliers’ effects, imbalance and overlapping class problems, normalizes to unseen data and relaxes dependency between features and labels. The average classification accuracy for PFRSVM is better than other classifiers for both Gaussian RBF and Bayesian kernels. The experimental results on both synthetic and real data sets clearly demonstrate the superiority of the proposed technique.

Keywords: FRSVM, Hadoop, MapReduce, PFRSVM

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Authors: Lu Lin

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Urbanization has reshaped physical environment, energy consumption and carbon emission of the urban area. China is a typical developing country under a rapid urbanization process and is the world largest carbon emission country. This study aims to explore the correlation between urban form and carbon emission caused by urban energy consumption in China. 287 provincial-level and prefecture-level cities are studied in 2000, 2005, and 2010. Compact ratio index, shape index, and fractal dimension index are used to quantify urban form. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is employed to explore the relationship between urban form, energy consumption, and related carbon emission. The results show the average compact ratio index decreased from 2000 to 2010 which indicates urban in China sprawled. The average fractal dimension index increases by 3%, indicating the spatial layouts of China's cities were more complicated. The results by the GWR model show that shape index and fractal dimension index had a non-significant relationship with carbon emission by urban energy consumption. However, compact urban form reduced carbon emission. The findings of this study will help policy-makers make sustainable urban planning and reduce urban carbon emission.

Keywords: carbon emission, GWR model, urban energy consumption, urban form

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Authors: Ahmet Kurnaz, Eyup Yurt, Ümit Çiftci

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In this study, too, an attempt was made to reveal the place and effects of information technologies on the lives and education of gifted children based on the views of gifted. To this end, the effects of information technologies on gifted are general skills, technology use, academic and social skills, and cooperative and personal skills were investigated. These skills were explored depending on whether or not gifted had their own computers, had internet connection at home, or how often they use the internet, average time period they spent at the computer, how often they played computer games and their use of social media. The study was conducted using the screening model with a quantitative approach. The sample of the study consisted of 129 gifted attending 5-12th classes in 12 provinces in different regions of Turkey. 64 of the participants were female while 65 were male. The research data were collected using the using computer of gifted and information technologies (UCIT) questionnaire which was developed by the researchers and given its final form after receiving expert view. As a result of the study, it was found that UCIT use improved foreign language speaking skills of gifted, enabled them to get to know and understand different cultures, and made use of computer and information technologies while they study. At the end of the study these result were obtained: Gifted have positive idea using computer and communication technology. There are differences whether using the internet about the ideas UCIT. But there are not differences whether having computer, inhabited city, grade level, having internet at home, daily and weekly internet usage durations, playing the computer and internet game, having Facebook and Twitter account about the UCIT. UCIT contribute to the development of gifted vocabulary, allows knowing and understand different cultures, developing foreign language speaking skills, gifted do not give up computer when they do their homework, improve their reading, listening, understanding and writing skills in a foreign language. Gifted children want to have transition to the use of tablets in education. They think UCIT facilitates doing their homework, contributes learning more information in a shorter time. They'd like to use computer-assisted instruction programs at courses. They think they will be more successful in the future if their computer skills are good. But gifted students prefer teacher instead of teaching with computers and they said that learning can be run from home without going to school.

Keywords: gifted, using computer, communication technology, information technologies

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Authors: Wen Po Cheng, Chen Zhao Feng, Ruey Fang Yu, Lin Jia Jun, Lin Ji Ye, Chen Yuan Wei

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Humic acid was used as the removal target for evaluating the coagulation efficiency in this study. When the coagulant ions mix with a humic acid solution, a Fluorescence quenching effect may be observed conditionally. This effect can be described by Stern-Volmer linear equation which can be used for quantifying the quenching value (Kq) of the Fluorescence quenching effect. In addition, a Complex-Formation Titration (CFT) theory was conducted and the result was used to explain the electron-neutralization capability of the coagulant (AlCl₃) at different pH. The results indicated that when pH of the ACl₃ solution was between 6 and 8, fluorescence quenching effect obviously occurred. The maximum Kq value was found to be 102,524 at pH 6. It means that the higher the Kq value is, the better complex reaction between a humic acid and aluminum salts will be. Through the Kq value study, the optimum pH can be quantified when the humic acid solution is coagulated with aluminum ions.

Keywords: humic acid, fluorescence quenching effect, complex reaction, titration

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Authors: Ridha Zgolli, Hatem Kanfoudi

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Cavitating flows inside a diesel injection nozzle hole were simulated using a mixture model. A 2D numerical model is proposed in this paper to simulate steady cavitating flows. The Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are solved for the liquid and vapor mixture, which is considered as a single fluid with variable density which is expressed as function of the vapor volume fraction. The closure of this variable is provided by the transport equation with a source term TEM. The processes of evaporation and condensation are governed by changes in pressure within the flow. The source term is implanted in the CFD code ANSYS CFX. The influence of numerical and physical parameters is presented in details. The numerical simulations are in good agreement with the experimental data for steady flow.

Keywords: cavitation, injection nozzle, numerical simulation, k–ω

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Authors: Imran Hashmi, Sipkaduwa Arachchige Sashika Sureni Wickramasooriya

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Gene-drive technology has emerged as a promising tool for disease control by influencing the population dynamics of disease-carrying organisms. Various gene drive mechanisms, derived from global laboratory experiments, aim to strategically manage and prevent the spread of targeted diseases. One prominent strategy involves population replacement, wherein genetically modified mosquitoes are introduced to replace the existing local wild population. To enhance our understanding and aid in the design of effective release strategies, we employ a comprehensive mathematical model. The utilized approach employs agent-based modeling, enabling the consideration of individual mosquito attributes and flexibility in parameter manipulation. Through the integration of an agent-based model and a meta-population spatial approach, the dynamics of gene drive mosquito spreading in a released site are simulated. The model's outcomes offer valuable insights into future population dynamics, providing guidance for the development of informed release strategies. This research significantly contributes to the ongoing discourse on the responsible and effective implementation of gene drive technology for disease vector control.

Keywords: gene drive, agent-based modeling, disease-carrying organisms, malaria

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Authors: Iris Vogeler, Rogerio Cichota, Armin Werner

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Dairy farms are under pressure to increase productivity while reducing environmental impacts. Effective fertiliser management practices are critical to achieve this. Determination of optimum nitrogen (N) fertilisation rates which maximise pasture growth and minimise N losses is challenging due to variability in plant requirements and likely near-future supply of N by the soil. Remote sensing can be used for mapping N nutrition status of plants and to rapidly assess the spatial variability within a field. An algorithm is, however, lacking which relates the N status of the plants to the expected yield response to additions of N. The aim of this simulation study was to develop a multi-variate model for determining N fertilisation rate for a target percentage of the maximum achievable yield based on the pasture N concentration (ii) use of an algorithm for guiding fertilisation rates, and (iii) evaluation of the model regarding pasture yield and N losses, including N leaching, denitrification and volatilisation. A simulation study was carried out using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM). The simulations were done for an irrigated ryegrass pasture in the Canterbury region of New Zealand. A multi-variate model was developed and used to determine monthly required N fertilisation rates based on pasture N content prior to fertilisation and targets of 50, 75, 90 and 100% of the potential monthly yield. These monthly optimised fertilisation rules were evaluated by running APSIM for a ten-year period to provide yield and N loss estimates from both nonurine and urine affected areas. Comparison with typical fertilisation rates of 150 and 400 kg N/ha/year was also done. Assessment of pasture yield and leaching from fertiliser and urine patches indicated a large reduction in N losses when N fertilisation rates were controlled by the multi-variate model. However, the reduction in leaching losses was much smaller when taking into account the effects of urine patches. The proposed approach based on biophysical modelling to develop a multi-variate model for determining optimum N fertilisation rates dependent on pasture N content is very promising. Further analysis, under different environmental conditions and validation is required before the approach can be used to help adjust fertiliser management practices to temporal and spatial N demand based on the nitrogen status of the pasture.

Keywords: APSIM modelling, optimum N fertilization rate, pasture N content, ryegrass pasture, three dimensional surface response function.

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Authors: Narendra Akhadkar, Silvestre Cano, Christophe Gourru

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Injection-molded parts are widely used in power system protection products. One of the biggest challenges in an injection molding process is shrinkage and warpage of the molded parts. All these geometrical variations may have an adverse effect on the quality of the product, functionality, cost, and time-to-market. The situation becomes more challenging in the case of intricate shapes and in mass production using multi-cavity tools. To control the effects of shrinkage and warpage, it is very important to correctly find out the input parameters that could affect the product performance. With the advances in the computer-aided engineering (CAE), different tools are available to simulate the injection molding process. For our case study, we used the MoldFlow insight tool. Our aim is to predict the spread of the functional dimensions and geometrical variations on the part due to variations in the input parameters such as material viscosity, packing pressure, mold temperature, melt temperature, and injection speed. The input parameters may vary during batch production or due to variations in the machine process settings. To perform the accurate product assembly variation simulation, the first step is to perform an individual part variation simulation to render realistic tolerance ranges. In this article, we present a method to simulate part variations coming from the input parameters variation during batch production. The method is based on computer simulations and experimental validation using the full factorial design of experiments (DoE). The robustness of the simulation model is verified through input parameter wise sensitivity analysis study performed using simulations and experiments; all the results show a very good correlation in the material flow direction. There exists a non-linear interaction between material and the input process variables. It is observed that the parameters such as packing pressure, material, and mold temperature play an important role in spread on functional dimensions and geometrical variations. This method will allow us in the future to develop accurate/realistic virtual prototypes based on trusted simulated process variation and, therefore, increase the product quality and potentially decrease the time to market.

Keywords: correlation, molding process, tolerance, sensitivity analysis, variation simulation

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Authors: Aihong Zhao, Priya Sastry, Mark L Field, Mohamad Bashir, Arvind Singh, David Richens

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Objectives: Intramural haematoma (IMH) is one of the pathologies, along with acute aortic dissection, that present as Acute Aortic Syndrome (AAS). Evidence suggests that unlike aortic dissection, some intramural haematomas may regress with medical management. However, intramural haematomas have been traditionally managed like acute aortic dissections. Given that some of these pathologies may regress with conservative management, it would be useful to be able to identify which of these may not need high risk emergency intervention. A computational aortic model was used in this study to try and identify intramural haematomas with risk of progression to aortic dissection. Methods: We created a computational model of the aorta with luminal blood flow. Reports in the literature have identified 11 mm as the radial clot thickness that is associated with heightened risk of progression of intramural haematoma. Accordingly, haematomas of varying sizes were implanted in the modeled aortic wall to test this hypothesis. The model was exposed to physiological blood flows and the stresses and strains in each layer of the aortic wall were recorded. Results: Size and shape of clot were seen to affect the magnitude of aortic stresses. The greatest stresses and strains were recorded in the intima of the model. When the haematoma exceeded 10 mm in all dimensions, the stress on the intima reached breaking point. Conclusion: Intramural clot size appears to be a contributory factor affecting aortic wall stress. Our computer simulation corroborates clinical evidence in the literature proposing that IMH diameter greater than 11 mm may be predictive of progression. This preliminary report suggests finite element modelling of the aortic wall may be a useful process by which to examine putative variables important in predicting progression or regression of intramural haematoma.

Keywords: intramural haematoma, acute aortic syndrome, finite element analysis,

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Authors: Nadaniela Egidi, Pierluigi Maponi

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The approximate solution of a time-harmonic electromagnetic scattering problem for inhomogeneous media is required in several application contexts, and its two-dimensional formulation is a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. This integral equation provides a formulation for the direct scattering problem, but it has to be solved several times also in the numerical solution of the corresponding inverse scattering problem. The discretization of this Fredholm equation produces large and dense linear systems that are usually solved by iterative methods. In order to improve the efficiency of these iterative methods, we use the Symmetric SOR preconditioning, and we propose an algorithm for the evaluation of the associated relaxation parameter. We show the efficiency of the proposed algorithm by several numerical experiments, where we use two Krylov subspace methods, i.e., Bi-CGSTAB and GMRES.

Keywords: Fredholm integral equation, iterative method, preconditioning, scattering problem

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Authors: T. Wen, Y. Liu, J. Wang, W. Zheng, T. Shao

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Along with the increasing density of urban population, solar energy potential of building facade in high-density residential areas become a question that needs to be addressed. This paper studies how the solar energy utilization potential of building facades in different locations of a residential areas changes with different building layouts and orientations in Xining, a typical city in west China which possesses large solar radiation resource. Solar energy potential of three typical building layouts of residential areas, which are parallel determinant, gable misalignment, transverse misalignment, are discussed in detail. First of all, through the data collection and statistics of Xining new residential area, the most representative building parameters are extracted, including building layout, building height, building layers, and building shape. Secondly, according to the results of building parameters extraction, a general model is established and analyzed with rhinoceros 6.0 and its own plug-in grasshopper. Finally, results of the various simulations and data analyses are presented in a visualized way. The results show that there are great differences in the solar energy potential of building facades in different locations of residential areas under three typical building layouts. Generally speaking, the solar energy potential of the west peripheral location is the largest, followed by the East peripheral location, and the middle location is the smallest. When the deflection angle is the same, the solar energy potential shows the result that the West deflection is greater than the East deflection. In addition, the optimal building azimuth range under these three typical building layouts is obtained. Within this range, the solar energy potential of the residential area can always maintain a high level. Beyond this range, the solar energy potential drops sharply. Finally, it is found that when the solar energy potential is maximum, the deflection angle is not positive south, but 5 °or 15°south by west. The results of this study can provide decision analysis basis for residential design of Xining city to improve solar energy utilization potential and provide a reference for solar energy utilization design of urban residential buildings in other similar areas.

Keywords: building facade, solar energy potential, solar radiation, urban residential area, visualization, Xining city

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Authors: Sanjal Gavande, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani

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In a complex aerospace operational environment, identifying failures in a procedure involving multiple human-machine interactions are difficult. These failures could lead to accidents causing loss of hardware or human life. The likelihood of failure further increases if operational procedures are tested for a novel system with multiple human-machine interfaces and with no prior performance data. The existing approach in the literature of reviewing complex operational tasks in a flowchart or tabular form doesn’t provide any insight into potential system failures due to human decision-making ability. To address these challenges, this research explores an agent-based simulation approach for reliability assessment and fault detection in complex human-machine systems while utilizing a human decision-making model. The simulation will predict the emergent behavior of the system due to the interaction between humans and their decision-making capability with the varying states of the machine and vice-versa. Overall system reliability will be evaluated based on a defined set of success-criteria conditions and the number of recorded failures over an assigned limit of Monte Carlo runs. The study also aims at identifying high-likelihood failure locations for the system. The research concludes that system reliability and failures can be effectively calculated when individual human and machine agent states are clearly defined. This research is limited to the operations phase of a system lifecycle process in an aerospace environment only. Further exploration of the proposed agent-based and human decision-making model will be required to allow for a greater understanding of this topic for application outside of the operations domain.

Keywords: agent-based model, complex human-machine system, human decision-making model, system reliability assessment

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Authors: Lorand Ujhazi

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The vast majority of existing canonical studies about migration are focused on examining the general pastoral and legal regulations of the Catholic Church. The weakness of this approach is that it ignores a number of important factors; like the financial, legal and personal circumstances of a particular church or the canonical position of certain organizations which actually look after the immigrants. This paper is a case study, which analyses the current and historical migration related policies and activities of the Catholic Church in Hungary. To achieve this goal the study uses canon law, historical publications, various instructions and communications issued by church superiors, Hungarian and foreign media reports and the relevant Hungarian legislation. The paper first examines how the Hungarian Catholic Church assisted migrants like Armenians fleeing from the Ottoman Empire, Poles escaping during the Second World War, East German and Romanian citizens in the 1980s and refugees from the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. These events underline the importance of past historical experience in the development of contemporary pastoral and humanitarian policy of the Catholic Church in Hungary. Then the paper turns to the events of the ongoing crisis by describing the unique challenges faced by churches in transit countries like Hungary. Then the research contrasts these findings with the typical responsibilities of churches in countries which are popular destinations for immigrants. The next part of the case study focuses on the changes to the pre-crisis legal and canonical framework which influenced the actions of hierarchical and charity organizations in Hungary. Afterwards, the paper illustrates the dangers of operating in an unclear legal environment, where some charitable activities of the church like a fundraising campaign may be interpreted as a national security risk by state authorities. Then the paper presents the reactions of Hungarian academics to the current migration crisis and finally it offers some proposals how to improve parts of Canon Law which govern immigration. The conclusion of the paper is that during the formulation of the central refugee policy of the Catholic Church decision makers must take into consideration the peculiar circumstances of its particular churches. This approach may prevent disharmony between the existing central regulations, the policy of the Vatican and the operations of the local church organizations.

Keywords: canon law, Catholic Church, civil law, Hungary, immigration, national security

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Authors: Arezoo Fallahi

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Background and purpose: Non-alcoholic fatty liver is one of the most common liver disorders, which, as the most important cause of death from liver disease, has unpleasant consequences and complications. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of an educational intervention based on a health belief model to prevent non-alcoholic fatty liver among women. Materials and Methods: This experimental study was performed among 110 women referring to comprehensive health service centers in Malayer City, west of Iran, in 2023. Using the available sampling method, 110 Participants were divided into experimental and control groups. The data collection tool included demographic characteristics and a questionnaire based on the health belief model. In The experimental group, three one-hour training sessions were conducted in the form of pamphlets, lectures and group discussions. Data were analyzed using SPSS software version 21, by correlation tests, paired t-tests independent t-tests. Results: The mean age of participants was 38.07±6.28 years, and Most of the participants were middle-aged, married, housewives with academic education, middle-income and overweight. After the educational intervention, the mean scores of the constructs include perceived sensitivity (p=0.01), perceived severity (p=0.01), perceived benefits (p=0.01), guidance for internal (p=0.01) and external action (p=0.01), and perceived self-efficacy (p=0.01) in the experimental group were significantly higher than the control group. The score of perceived barriers in the experimental group decreased after training. The perceived obstacles score in the test group decreased after the training (15.2 ± 3.9 v.s 11.2 ± 3.3, (p<0.01). Conclusion: The findings of the study showed that the design and implementation of educational programs based on the constructs of the health belief model can be effective in preventing women from developing higher levels of non-alcoholic fatty liver.

Keywords: health, education, believe, behaviour

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Authors: G. Shabib, Esam H. Abd-Elhameed, G. Magdy

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In this paper, a comparison of discrete time PID, PSS controllers is presented through small signal stability of power system comprising of one machine connected to infinite bus system. This comparison achieved by using a new approach of discretization which converts the S-domain model of analog controllers to a Z-domain model to enhance the damping of a single machine power system. The new method utilizes the Plant Input Mapping (PIM) algorithm. The proposed algorithm is stable for any sampling rate, as well as it takes the closed loop characteristic into consideration. On the other hand, the traditional discretization methods such as Tustin’s method is produce satisfactory results only; when the sampling period is sufficiently low.

Keywords: PSS, power system stabilizer PID, proportional-integral-derivative PIM, plant input mapping

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Authors: Inna V. Krotova

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The study pays special attention to the definition of the psychological potential of a specialist-defectologist, which determines his desire to increase the level of his or her professional competence. The group included participants of the educational environment – an additional professional program 'Technologies of psychological and pedagogical assistance for children with complex developmental disabilities' implemented by the department of defectology and clinical psychology of the KFU jointly with the Support Fund for the Deafblind people 'Co-Unity'. The purpose of our study was to identify the psychological aspects of the readiness of the specialist-defectologist to his or her professional development. The study assessed the indicators of psychological preparedness, and its four components were taken into account: motivational, cognitive, emotional and volitional. We used valid and standardized tests during the study. As a result of the factor analysis of data received (from Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis, Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization, Rotation converged in 12 iterations), there were identified three factors with maximum factor load from 24 indices, and their correlation coefficients with other indicators were taken into account at the level of reliability p ≤ 0.001 and p ≤ 0.01. Thus the system making factor was determined – it’s a 'motivation to achieve success'; it formed a correlation galaxy with two other factors: 'general internality' and 'internality in the field of achievements', as well as with such psychological indicators as 'internality in the field of family relations', 'internality in the field of interpersonal relations 'and 'low self-control-high self-control' (the names of the scales used is the same as names in the analysis methods. In conclusion of the article, we present some proposals to take into account the psychological model of readiness of specialists-defectologists for their professional development, to stimulate the growth of their professional competence. The study has practical value for all providers of special education and organizations that have their own specialists-defectologists, teachers-defectologists, teachers for correctional and ergotherapeutic activities, specialists working in the field of correctional-pedagogical activity (speech therapists) to people with special needs who need true professional support.

Keywords: psychological readiness, defectologist, professional development, psychological factors, special education, professional competence, innovative educational environment

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Authors: Yang Shen, Yongpan Cheng, Jinliang Xu

Abstract:

The effective blade cooling is of great significance for improving the performance of turbine. The mist cooling emerges as the promising way compared with the transitional single-phase cooling. In the mist cooling, the injected droplet will evaporate rapidly, and cool down the blade surface due to the absorbed latent heat, hence the lifetime for evaporating droplet becomes critical for design of cooling passages for the blade. So far there have been extensive studies on the droplet evaporation, but usually the isothermal model is applied for most of the studies. Actually the surface cooling effect can affect the droplet evaporation greatly, it can prolong the droplet evaporation lifetime significantly. In our study, a new theoretical model for sessile droplet evaporation with surface cooling effect is built up in toroidal coordinate. Three evaporation modes are analyzed during the evaporation lifetime, include “Constant Contact Radius”(CCR) mode、“Constant Contact Angle”(CCA) mode and “stick-slip”(SS) mode. The dimensionless number E0 is introduced to indicate the strength of the evaporative cooling, it is defined based on the thermal properties of the liquid and the atmosphere. Our model can predict accurately the lifetime of evaporation by validating with available experimental data. Then the temporal variation of droplet volume, contact angle and contact radius are presented under CCR, CCA and SS mode, the following conclusions are obtained. 1) The larger the dimensionless number E0, the longer the lifetime of three evaporation cases is; 2) The droplet volume over time still follows “2/3 power law” in the CCA mode, as in the isothermal model without the cooling effect; 3) In the “SS” mode, the large transition contact angle can reduce the evaporation time in CCR mode, and increase the time in CCA mode, the overall lifetime will be increased; 4) The correction factor for predicting instantaneous volume of the droplet is derived to predict the droplet life time accurately. These findings may be of great significance to explore the dynamics and heat transfer of sessile droplet evaporation.

Keywords: blade cooling, droplet evaporation, lifetime, theoretical analysis

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Authors: Hasan Serdar Öge, Esra Çiftçi, Kazım Karaboğa

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The main purpose of the research is to address the role of psychological harassment behaviors (mobbing) to which employees are exposed and personality characteristics over work alienation. Research population was composed of the employees of Provincial Special Administration. A survey with four sections was created to measure variables and reach out the basic goals of the research. Correlation and step-wise regression analyses were performed to investigate the separate and overall effects of sub-dimensions of psychological harassment behaviors and personality characteristic on work alienation of employees. Correlation analysis revealed significant but weak relationships between work alienation and psychological harassment and personality characteristics. Step-wise regression analysis revealed also significant relationships between work alienation variable and assault to personality, direct negative behaviors (sub dimensions of mobbing) and openness (sub-dimension of personality characteristics). Each variable was introduced into the model step by step to investigate the effects of significant variables in explaining the variations in work alienation. While the explanation ratio of the first model was 13%, the last model including three variables had an explanation ratio of 24%.

Keywords: alienation, five-factor personality characteristics, mobbing, psychological harassment, work alienation

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Authors: Laurent Maurin, Mervi Toivanen

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This paper estimates euro area banks’ internal target capital ratios and investigates whether banks’ adjustment to the targets have an impact on credit supply and holding of securities during the financial crisis in 2005-2011. Using data on listed banks and country-specific macro-variables a partial adjustment model is estimated in a panel context. The results indicate, firstly, that an increase in the riskiness of banks’ balance sheets influences positively on the target capital ratios. Secondly, the adjustment towards higher equilibrium capital ratios has a significant impact on banks’ assets. The impact is found to be more size-able on security holdings than on loans, thereby suggesting a pecking order.

Keywords: Euro area, capital ratios, credit supply, partial adjustment model

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Authors: Pedro Paulo Galindo Francisco, Eli Dhadad Junior

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This study addresses the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle by introducing the latest machine learning techniques as alternatives for predicting the exchange rates. Using RMSE as a comparison metric, Meese and Rogoff discovered that economic models are unable to outperform the random walk model as short-term exchange rate predictors. Decades after this study, no statistical prediction technique has proven effective in overcoming this obstacle; although there were positive results, they did not apply to all currencies and defined periods. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence technologies have paved the way for a new approach to exchange rate prediction. Leveraging this technology, we applied five machine learning techniques to attempt to overcome the Meese-Rogoff puzzle. We considered daily data for the real, yen, British pound, euro, and Chinese yuan against the US dollar over a time horizon from 2010 to 2023. Our results showed that none of the presented techniques were able to produce an RMSE lower than the Random Walk model. However, the performance of some models, particularly LSTM and N-BEATS were able to outperform the ARIMA model. The results also suggest that machine learning models have untapped potential and could represent an effective long-term possibility for overcoming the Meese-Rogoff puzzle.

Keywords: exchage rate, prediction, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Marinka Baghdasaryan, Tigran Mnoyan

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The pertinence of modeling the moment of resistance generated by the ore-grinding mill is substantiated. Based on the ranking of technological indices obtained in the result of the survey among the specialists of several beneficiating plants, the factors determining the level of the moment of resistance generated by the mill are revealed. A priori diagram of the ranks is obtained in which the factors are arranged in the descending order of the impact degree on the level of the moment. The obtained model of the moment of resistance shows the technological character of the operation modes of the ore-grinding mill and can be used for improving the operation modes of the system motor-mill and preventing the abnormal mode of the drive synchronous motor.

Keywords: model, abnormal mode, mill, correlation, moment of resistance, rotational speed

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Authors: Sarah K. Amer, Nagwa Badr, Osman Ibrahim, Ahmed Hamad

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This paper surveys the effectiveness of software process quality assurance frameworks, with some focus on Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) - a framework that has become widely adopted in software organizations. The importance of quality improvement in software development, and the differences in the outcomes of quality framework implementation between Middle Eastern and North African (MENA-region) countries and non-MENA-region countries are discussed. The greatest challenges met in the MENA region are identified, with particular focus on Egypt and its rising software development industry.

Keywords: software quality, software process improvement, software development methodologies, capability maturity model integration

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Authors: Mokhtar Kouki Inès Rekik

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the assessment of the air pollution and morbidity relationship in Tunisia. Air pollution is measured by ozone air concentration and the morbidity is measured by the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days during the 2-week period prior to the interview. Socioeconomic data are also collected in order to adjust for any confounding covariates. Our sample is composed by 407 Tunisian respondents; 44.7% are women, the average age is 35.2, near 69% are living in a house built after the 1980, and 27.8% have reported at least one day of respiratory-related restricted activity. The model consists on the regression of the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days on the air quality measure and the socioeconomic covariates. In order to correct for zero-inflation and heterogeneity, we estimate several models (Poisson, Negative binomial, Zero inflated Poisson, Poisson hurdle, Negative binomial hurdle and finite mixture Poisson models). Bootstrapping and post-stratification techniques are used in order to correct for any sample bias. According to the Akaike information criteria, the hurdle negative binomial model has the greatest goodness of fit. The main result indicates that, after adjusting for socioeconomic data, the ozone concentration increases the probability of positive number of restricted activity days.

Keywords: bootstrapping, hurdle negbin model, overdispersion, ozone concentration, respiratory-related restricted activity days

Procedia PDF Downloads 252