Search results for: period change

Authors: Drew Fockler

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This research examines how to improve an employee’s experience when transferring between departments within an organization. This research includes a historical review of a Canadian retail organization. Based on this historical review, gaps are identified between current and future visions to show where problems with existing training and development practices need to be resolved to reduce front-line employee turnover within an organization. The strategies within this paper support leaders through the LEAD: Listen, Explore, Act and Develop, Change Management Model. The LEAD Change Management Model supports the change process. This research proposes three possible solutions to improve an employee who is transferring between departments. The best solution to resolve the problem of improving an employee moving between departments experience is creating a Training Manager position within the retail store. A Training Manager position could support both employees and leadership with training and development of staff who are moving between departments. Within this research, an implementation plan using the TransX Model was created. The TransX Model is a hybrid of Leader-Member Exchange Theory and Transformational Leadership Theory to facilitate this organizational change within an organization by creating a common vision. Finally, this research provides the next steps as well as future considerations to enhance the training manager role within an organization.

Keywords: employee transfers, employee engagement, human resources, employee induction, TransX model, lead change management model

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival

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Authors: Jen-Te Pai, Jao-Heng Liu, Shin-En Pai

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The impact of climate change has intensified in recent years, causing Taiwan to face higher frequency and serious natural disasters. Therefore, it is imperative for industrial parks manufacturers to promote adaptation policies in response to climate change. On the other hand, with the rise of the international anti-terrorism situation, once a terrorist attack occurs, it will attract domestic and international media attention, especially the strategic and economic status of the science park. Thus, it is necessary to formulate adaptation and mitigation strategies under climate change and social economic disasters. After reviewed the literature about climate change, urban disaster prevention, vulnerability assessment, and risk communication, the study selected 62 industrial parks compiled by the Industrial Bureau of the Ministry of Economic Affairs of Taiwan as the research object. This study explored the vulnerability and disaster prevention and disaster relief functional assessment of these industrial parks facing of natural and socio-economic disasters. Furthermore, this study explored planned adaptation of industrial parks management section and autonomous adaptation of corporate institutions in the park. The conclusion of this study is that Taiwan industrial parks with a higher vulnerability to natural and socio-economic disasters should employ positive adaptive behaviours.

Keywords: adaptive behaviours, analytic network process, vulnerability, industrial parks

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Authors: Rakesh Kumar Soni

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Under free living conditions, human biological clocks show a periodicity of 24 hour for numerous physiological, behavioral and biochemical variables. However, this period is not the original period; rather it merely exhibits synchronization with the solar clock. It is, therefore, most important to investigate characteristics of human circadian clock, essentially in shift workers, who normally confront with contrasting social clocks. Aim of the present study was to investigate rest-activity rhythm and to vouch for the best technique for the computation of periods in this rhythm in subjects randomly selected from different groups of shift workers. The rest-activity rhythm was studied in forty-eight shift workers from three different organizations, namely Newspaper Printing Press (NPP), Chhattisgarh State Electricity Board (CSEB) and Raipur Alloys (RA). Shift workers of NPP (N = 20) were working on a permanent night shift schedule (NS; 20:00-04:00). However, in CSEB (N = 14) and RA (N = 14), shift workers were working in a 3-shift system comprising of rotations from night (NS; 22:00-06:00) to afternoon (AS; 14:00-22:00) and to morning shift (MS; 06:00-14:00). Each subject wore an Actiwatch (AW64, Mini Mitter Co. Inc., USA) for 7 and/or 21 consecutive days, only after furnishing a certificate of consent. One-minute epoch length was chosen for the collection of wrist activity data. Period was determined by using Actiware sleep software (Periodogram), Lomb-Scargle Periodogram (LSP) and Spectral analysis software (Spectre). Other statistical techniques, such as ANOVA and Duncan’s multiple-range test were also used whenever required. A statistically significant circadian rhythm in rest-activity, gauged by cosinor, was documented in all shift workers, irrespective of shift work. Results indicate that the efficiency of the technique to determine the period (τ) depended upon the clipping limits of the τs. It appears that the technique of spectre is more reliable.

Keywords: biological clock, rest activity rhythm, spectre, periodogram

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Authors: Gus Salazar, Jeremy Bekker, Lauren Linford, Jared Warren

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Positive psychology practices allow for its principles to be applied to all people, regardless of their current level of functioning. To increase the dissemination of these practices, interventions are being adapted for use with digital technology, such as mobile apps. However, the research regarding positive psychology mobile app interventions is still in its infancy. In an effort to facilitate progress in this important area, we 1) conducted a qualitative review to summarize the current state of the positive psychology mobile app literature and 2) developed research-supported recommendations for positive psychology app development to maximize behavior change. In our literature review, we found that while positive psychology apps varied widely in content and purpose, there was a near-complete lack of research supporting their effectiveness. Most apps provided no rationale for the behavioral change techniques (BCTs) they employed in their app, and most did not develop their app with specific theoretical frameworks or design models in mind. Given this problem, we recommended four steps for effective positive psychology app design. First, developers must establish their app in a research-supported theory of change. Second, researchers must select appropriate behavioral change techniques which are consistent with their app’s goals. Third, researchers must leverage effective design principles. These steps will help mobile applications use data-driven methods for encouraging behavior change in their users. Lastly, we discuss directions for future research. In particular, researchers must investigate the effectiveness of various BCTs in positive psychology interventions. Although there is some research on this point, we do not yet clearly understand the mechanisms within the apps that lead to behavior change. Additionally, app developers must also provide data on the effectiveness of their mobile apps. As developers follow these steps for effective app development and as researchers continue to investigate what makes these apps most effective, we will provide millions of people in need with access to research-based mental health resources.

Keywords: behavioral change techniques, mobile app, mobile intervention, positive psychology

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Authors: Ali Asghar Sotoudeh

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Since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the subsequent regime change, internal conflicts between political and ethnic-religious groups have become a hallmark of Iraqi political dynamism. The most important manifestations of these conflicts are the Kurdish-central government conflicts, as well as fundamentalism since 2003. As a result, it seems not only US presence in Iraq under the pretext of fighting terrorism and expanding democracy has not had a positive effect on controlling fundamentalism and political stability in Iraq, but it has paved the way for the formation and continuation of geopolitical crises in the form of disputes over territory and sources of power. In this regard, given the importance of the study, the main purpose of this study is to examine the process of the impact of US regime-change policy on the formation and continuation of geopolitical crises in Iraq. The central question of this study is, what effect has the US regime change policy had on Iraq's domestic political processes? Findings show that regime change and subsequent imposed federalism have widened the gaps in Iraq's sectarian-ethnic system. As a result, the geopolitical crisis in the context of the dispute over geographical territory and sources of power between ethnic-religious groups has become the most important political dynamic in Iraq since the occupation. The research method in this article is descriptive-analytical, and the data collection method is library and internet resources.

Keywords: Iraq, united states, geopolitical crisis, ethno-religious conflict, political federalism

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Authors: Gulsen Yilmaz

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Istanbul’s population has jumped by over 1 million in the past four years, to a level surpassing the overall population of 64 provinces in the country, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). In this paper, Istanbul's population change and migration effects can be examined in detail Tarlabasi neighborhood cultural center of the city of Istanbul, Istiklal Street, which is located a few hundred meters away. Tarlabasi the end of the nineteenth century in the historic district with built in the early twentieth century, there are four or five storey historic buildings. Tarlabasi, here come from southeastern Turkey and the illegal African immigrants living in Roma origin by the Kurds as a residential area is used. In this area to improve the quality of life for urban renewal projects have been initiated. The aim of this paper is to explore the spatial effects of demographic change and migration with Tarlabasi example.

Keywords: migration, immigration, Tarlabaşı, urban transformation

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Authors: Georg Ebner

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The National Defence Academy, an element of the Austrian Ministry of Defence, is undergoing a transition process leading the Academy towards a new target structure that is currently being developed. In so doing, in addition to a subject-oriented approach, also an employee-oriented process was introduced. This process was initiated by the Ministry of Defence and should lead the National Defence Academy into a new constellation. During this process, the National Defence Academy worked in very special adapted World Café sessions. The “change manager” dealed with very different issues. They took the data feedback from the sessions and prepared with the feedback and information from the guidance the next session. So they got various information and a very different picture around the academy. It was very helpful to involve most of the employees of the academy during this process and to take their knowledge and wisdom. The process himself started with very different feelings and ended with great consent. A very interesting part of this process was also that the commander and his deputy worked together during all of this sessions and they answered all questions from the employees in time. The adapted World Café phases were necessary to deal with the information of the staff and to implement these absolutely needful data into this process. In cooperation with the responsible Headquarters, the first items resulting from the World Café phases could already be fed back to the employees and be implemented. The staff-oriented process is currently supported via a point of contact, through which the staff can contribute ideas as well, but also by the active information policy on the part of the Headquarters. The described change process makes innovative innovations possible. So far, in the event of change processes staff members have been entrusted only with the concrete implementation plan and tied into the process when the respective workplaces were to be re-staffed. The procedure described here can be seen as food-for-thought for further change processes. The findings of this process are that a staff oriented process can lead an organisation into a new era of thinking and working. This process has shown, that a lot of innovative ideas can also take place in a ministry. This process can be a background for a lot of change management processes in ministries and governmental and non-governmental organisations.

Keywords: both directions approach, change management, knowledge database, transformation process, World Cafe

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Authors: Dawood Aghamohammadi, Mahmoud Eidi, Alireza Pishgahi, Azam Esmaeilnejad

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Adenosine has an analgesic and anti-inflammatory role and its injections are used for peri-operative pain management. We want to study efficacy of intrathecal injection of adenosine for post operative radicular pain after lumbar discectomy. 40 patients with unilevel lumbar discectomy who had radicular lower limb pain were treated by 1000 micrograms of intrathecal injection of adenosine. Pain severity, pain killer consumption per day and sleep quality were assessed during a 3 months follow up period. Radicular pain severity was significantly reduced in 3 month follow-up period in comparison to the baseline (F=19760, DF=2.53, p-value<0.001). Further painkiller medication consumption rate in average during 3 month follow-up period after injection was significantly lower in comparison to baseline (F= 19.244, df= 1.98, p-value<0.001). This study suggests that intrathecal injection of adenosine is a safe method in order to reduce postoperative pain after lumbar discectomy.

Keywords: adenosine, intrathecal injection, discectomy, neuropathic pain

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Authors: C. H. Chang, R. Z. Qiu, C. W. Tsao, Y. H. Cheng, C. H. Chen, W. J. Hsueh

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Characteristics of photoluminescence (PL) in a resonant quasi-periodic double-period quantum wells (DPQW) are demonstrated. The maximum PL intensity in the DPQW is remarkably greater than that in a traditional periodic QW (PQW) under the Bragg or anti-Bragg conditions. The optimal PL spectrum in the DPQW has an asymmetrical form instead of the symmetrical form in the PQW. Moreover, there are two large values of PL intensity in the DPQW, which also differs from the PQW.

Keywords: Photoluminescence, quantum wells, quasiperiodic structure

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Authors: Tijjani Bashir Musa

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The recent global crisis which suddenly results to Nigerian stock market crash revealed some peculiarities of Nigerian firms. Some firms in Nigeria are performing but their stock prices are not increasing while some firms are at the brink of collapse but their stock prices are increasing. Thus, this study examines the relationship between firm performance and stock price in Nigeria. The study covered the period of 2005 to 2009. This period is the period of stock boom and also marked the period of stock market crash as a result of global financial meltdown. The study is a panel study. A total of 140 firms were sampled from 216 firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Data were collected from secondary source. These data were divided into four strata comprising the most performing stock, the least performing stock, most performing firms and the least performing firms. Each stratum contains 35 firms with characteristic of most performing stock, most performing firms, least performing stock and least performing firms. Multiple linear regression models were used to analyse the data while statistical/econometrics package of Stata 11.0 version was used to run the data. The study found that, relationship exists between selected firm performance parameters (operating efficiency, firm profit, earning per share and working capital) and stock price. As such firm performance gave sufficient information or has predictive power on stock prices movements in Nigeria for all the years under study.. The study recommends among others that Managers of firms in Nigeria should formulate policies and exert effort geared towards improving firm performance that will enhance stock prices movements.

Keywords: firm, Nigeria, performance, stock price

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Authors: Ismaila H. Zarma, Mahmoud Ahmed, Shinichi Ookawara, Hamdi Abo-Ali

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Phase change materials (PCM) are an ideal thermal storage medium. They are characterized by a high latent heat, which allows them to store large amounts of energy when the material transitions into different physical states. Concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems are widely recognized as the most efficient form of Photovoltaic (PV) for thermal energy which can be stored in Phase Change Materials (PCM). However, PCMs often have a low thermal conductivity which leads to a slow transient response. This makes it difficult to quickly store and access the energy stored within the PCM based systems, so there is need to improve transient responses and increase the thermal conductivity. The present study aims to investigate and analyze the melting and solidification process of phase change materials (PCMs) enhanced by nanoparticle contained in a container. Heat flux from concentrated photovoltaic is applied in an attempt to analyze the thermal performance and the impact of nanoparticles. The work will be realized by using a two dimensional model which take into account the phase change phenomena based on the principle of enthalpy method. Numerical simulations have been performed to investigate heat and flow characteristics by using governing equations, to ascertain the impacts of the nanoparticle loading. The Rayleigh number, sub-cooling as well as the unsteady evolution of the melting front and the velocity and temperature fields were also observed. The predicted results exhibited a good agreement, showing thermal enhancement due to present of nanoparticle which leads to decreasing the melting time.

Keywords: thermal energy storage, phase-change material, nanoparticle, concentrated photovoltaic

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Authors: Julius Niba Fon, Jean Hude E. Moudingo

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Mangrove ecosystems in Cameroon are valuable both in services and functions as they play host to carbon sinks, fishery breeding grounds and natural coastal barriers against storms. In addition to the globally important biodiversity that they contain, they also contribute to local livelihoods. Despite these appraisals, a reduction of about 30 % over a 25 years period due to anthropogenic and natural actions has been recorded. The key drivers influencing mangrove change include population growth, climate change, economic and political trends and upstream habitat use. Reversing the trend of mangrove loss and growing vulnerability of coastal peoples requires a real commitment by the government to develop and implement robust level policies. It has been observed in Cameroon that special ecosystems like mangroves are insufficiently addressed by forestry and/or environment programs. Given these facts, the Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) in partnership with the Government of Cameroon and other development actors have put in place the project for sustainable community-based management and conservation of mangrove ecosystems in Cameroon. The aim is to address two issues notably the present weak institutional and legal framework for mangrove management, and the unrestricted and unsustainable harvesting of mangrove resources. Civil society organizations like the Cameroon Wildlife Conservation Society, Cameroon Ecology and Organization for the Environment and Development have been working to reduce the deforestation and degradation trend of Cameroon mangroves and also bringing the mangrove agenda to the fore in national and international arenas. Following a desktop approach, we found out that in situ and ex situ initiatives on mangrove management and conservation exist on propagation of improved fish smoke ovens to reduce fuel wood consumption, mangrove forest regeneration, shrimps farming and mangrove protected areas management. The evidence generated from the field experiences are inputs for processes of improving the legal and institutional framework for mangrove management in Cameroon, such as the elaboration of norms for mangroves management engaged by the government.

Keywords: mangrove ecosystem, legal and institutional framework, climate change, civil society organizations

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye, Edouard Singirankabo, Alexis Habineza, Yunvirusaba Nelson

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Temperature is one of the most important climatic factors for crop production. However, severe temperatures cause drought, feverish and cold spells that have various consequences for human life, agriculture, and the environment in general. It is necessary to provide reliable information related to the incidents and the probability of such extreme events occurring. In the 21st century, the world faces a huge number of threats, especially from climate change, due to global warming and environmental degradation. The rise in temperature has a direct effect on the decrease in rainfall. This has an impact on crop growth and development, which in turn decreases crop yield and quality. Countries that are heavily dependent on agriculture use to suffer a lot and need to take preventive steps to overcome these challenges. The main objective of this study is to model the statistical behaviour of extreme maximum temperature values in Rwanda. To achieve such an objective, the daily temperature data spanned the period from January 2000 to December 2017 recorded at nine weather stations collected from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency were used. The two methods, namely the block maxima (BM) method and the Peaks Over Threshold (POT), were applied to model and analyse extreme temperature. Model parameters were estimated, while the extreme temperature return periods and confidence intervals were predicted. The model fit suggests Gumbel and Beta distributions to be the most appropriate models for the annual maximum of daily temperature. The results show that the temperature will continue to increase, as shown by estimated return levels.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, extreme value theory, rwanda, temperature, generalised extreme value distribution, generalised pareto distribution

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Authors: Ana C. V. Freitas, Luciana B. M. Pires, Joao P. Martins

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In recent years, fire dynamics in deforestation areas of tropical forests have received considerable attention because of their relationship to climate change. Climate models project great increases in the frequency and area of drought in the Amazon region, which may increase the occurrence of fires. This study analyzes the historical record number of fire outbreaks in 2017 using satellite-derived data sets of active fire detections, burned area, precipitation, and data of the Fire Program from the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE). A downward trend in the number of fire outbreaks occurred in the first half of 2017, in relation to the previous year. This decrease can be related to the fact that 2017 was not an El Niño year and, therefore, the observed rainfall and temperature in the Amazon region was close to normal conditions. Meanwhile, the worst period in history for fire outbreaks began with the subsequent arrival of the dry season. September of 2017 exceeded all monthly records for number of fire outbreaks per month in the entire series. This increase was mainly concentrated in Bolivia and in the states of Amazonas, northeastern Pará, northern Rondônia and Acre, regions with high densities of rural settlements, which strongly suggests that human action is the predominant factor, aggravated by the lack of precipitation during the dry season allowing the fires to spread and reach larger areas. Thus, deforestation in the Amazon is primarily a human-driven process: climate trends may be providing additional influences.

Keywords: Amazon forest, climate change, deforestation, human-driven process, fire outbreaks

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Authors: Ali M. Subyani

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The increase in the greenhouse gas emission has had a severe impact on global climate change and is bound to affect the weather patterns worldwide. This climate change impacts are among the future significant effects on any society. Rainfall levels are drastically increasing with flash floods in some places and long periods of droughts in others, especially in arid regions. These extreme events are causes of interactions concerning environmental, socio-economic and cultural life and their implementation. This paper presents the detailed features of dry and wet spell durations and rainfall intensity series available (1971-2012) on daily basis for the Jeddah area, Western, Saudi Arabia. It also presents significant articles for combating the climate change impacts on this area. Results show trend changes in dry and wet spell durations and rainfall amount on daily, monthly and annual time series. Three rain seasons were proposed in this investigation: high rain, low rain, and dry seasons. It shows that the overall average dry spell durations is about 80 continuous days while the average wet spell durations is 1.39 days with an average rainfall intensity of 8.2 mm/day. Annual and seasonal autorun analyses confirm that the rainy seasons are tending to have more intense rainfall while the seasons are becoming drier. This study would help decision makers in future for water resources management and flood risk analysis.

Keywords: climate change, daily rainfall, dry and wet spill, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Chia-Chi Cheng

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After the implementation of “the internet plus,” several puzzles emerge as below: why does China impose more regulation and laws on economic development on the Internet? Why does China urge the importance of manufacturing industry? Why does China’s local government passively implement the policy imposed by the central government? What kind of factors can influence China’s local government’s economic preference? In the framework of neo-institutionalism, this research considers China’s local government as changing agents to analyze its preferences and behavior. In general, the interests urged by the local government will decide its preference and behaviors. They will change its counterpart to cooperate if the change will bring more benefits. Thus, they will change its preference and behavior while the external environment alters. While the local government has the same definition on political activity and economic interest, they will prefer to cooperate with the local enterprises in the way of laying symbiont, within the presumption that the institution remains. While the local government has the different positions on political activity and economic interest, they will re-define the existed regulation or create new regulation in the condition of institution vacuum. Sequentially, they will replace the targets, and the policy, which does not fit in the Central government’s policy, will emerge.

Keywords: China, institutional change, government enterprise relationship, e-commercial policy

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Authors: Sonia Zulfiqar, Daniele Mantione, Muhammad Ilyas Sarwar, Alexander Rothenberger, David Mecerreyes

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Climate change due to escalating carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is an issue of paramount importance that needs immediate attention. CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS) is a promising route to mitigate climate change and adsorption is the most widely recognized technology owing to possible energy savings relative to the conventional absorption techniques. In this conference, the potential of a new family of solid sorbents for CO2 capture and separation will be presented. Novel pyridinium containing poly(ionic liquid)s (PILs) were synthesized with varying anions i.e bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide and hexafluorophosphate. The resulting polymers were characterized using NMR, XRD, TGA, BET surface area and microscopic techniques. Furthermore, CO2 adsorption measurements at two different temperatures were also carried out and revealed great potential of these PILs as CO2 scavengers.

Keywords: climate change, CO2 capture, poly(ionic liquid)s, CO2/N2 selectivity

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Authors: Amy L. Irvine, Gabriel Reygondeau, Derek P. Tittensor

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Marine protected areas (MPAs) within Canada’s exclusive economic zone help ensure the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems and the continued provision of ecosystem services to society (e.g., food, carbon sequestration). With ongoing and accelerating climate change, however, MPAs may become undermined in terms of their effectiveness at fulfilling these outcomes. Many populations of species, especially those at their thermal range limits, may shift to cooler waters or become extirpated due to climate change, resulting in new species compositions and ecological interactions within static MPA boundaries. While Canadian MPA management follows international guidelines for marine conservation, no consistent approach exists for adapting MPA networks to climate change and the resulting altered ecosystem conditions. To fill this gap, projected climate-driven shifts in species distributions on Canada’s east coast were analyzed to identify when native species emigrate and novel species immigrate within the network and how high mitigation and carbon emission scenarios influence these timelines. Indicators of the ecological changes caused by these species' shifts in the biological community were also developed. Overall, our research provides projections of climate change impacts and helps to guide adaptive management responses within the Canadian east coast MPA network.

Keywords: climate change, ecosystem modeling, marine protected areas, management

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Authors: Arunas Burinskas, Aurelija Burinskiene

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On average, ten percent of drugs - commercial products are not available in pharmacies due to shortage. The shortage event disbalance sales and requires a recovery period, which is too long. Therefore, one of the critical issues that pharmacies do not record potential sales transactions during shortage and recovery periods. The authors suggest estimating outliers during shortage and recovery periods. To shorten the recovery period, the authors suggest using average sales per sales day prediction, which helps to protect the data from being downwards or upwards. Authors use the outlier’s visualization method across different drugs and apply the Grubbs test for significance evaluation. The researched sample is 100 drugs in a one-month time frame. The authors detected that high demand variability products had outliers. Among analyzed drugs, which are commercial products i) High demand variability drugs have a one-week shortage period, and the probability of facing a shortage is equal to 69.23%. ii) Mid demand variability drugs have three days shortage period, and the likelihood to fall into deficit is equal to 34.62%. To avoid shortage events and minimize the recovery period, real data must be set up. Even though there are some outlier detection methods for drug data cleaning, they have not been used for the minimization of recovery period once a shortage has occurred. The authors use Grubbs’ test real-life data cleaning method for outliers’ adjustment. In the paper, the outliers’ adjustment method is applied with a confidence level of 99%. In practice, the Grubbs’ test was used to detect outliers for cancer drugs and reported positive results. The application of the Grubbs’ test is used to detect outliers which exceed boundaries of normal distribution. The result is a probability that indicates the core data of actual sales. The application of the outliers’ test method helps to represent the difference of the mean of the sample and the most extreme data considering the standard deviation. The test detects one outlier at a time with different probabilities from a data set with an assumed normal distribution. Based on approximation data, the authors constructed a framework for scaling potential sales and estimating outliers with Grubbs’ test method. The suggested framework is applicable during the shortage event and recovery periods. The proposed framework has practical value and could be used for the minimization of the recovery period required after the shortage of event occurrence.

Keywords: drugs, Grubbs' test, outlier, shortage event

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Authors: Pei-Ti Hsu, I-Ju Chen, Jeu-Jung Chen, Cheng-Fen Chang, Shiu-Yan Yang

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Taiwan now is an aging society Research on the elderly should not be confined to caring for seniors, but should also be focused on ways to improve health and the quality of life. Senior citizens who participate in volunteer services could become less lonely, have new growth opportunities, and regain a sense of accomplishment. Thus, the question of how to get the elderly to participate in volunteer service is worth exploring. Apply the Transtheoretical Model to understand stages of change in regular volunteer service and voluntary service behaviour among the seniors. 1525 adults over the age of 65 from the Renai district of Keelung City were interviewed. The research tool was a self-constructed questionnaire and individual interviews were conducted to collect data. Then the data was processed and analyzed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 20 (Windows version) statistical software program. In the past six months, research subjects averaged 9.92 days of volunteer services. A majority of these elderly individuals had no intention to change their regular volunteer services. We discovered that during the maintenance stage, the self-efficacy for volunteer services was higher than during all other stages, but self-perceived barriers were less during the preparation stage and action stage. Self-perceived benefits were found to have an important predictive power for those with regular volunteer service behaviors in the previous stage, and self-efficacy was found to have an important predictive power for those with regular volunteer service behaviors in later stages. The research results support the conclusion that community nursing staff should group elders based on their regular volunteer services change stages and design appropriate behavioral change strategies.

Keywords: seniors, stages of change in regular volunteer services, volunteer service behavior, self-efficacy, self-perceived benefits

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Authors: M. Akif Ceviz, Alirıza Kaleli, Erdoğan Güner

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LPG pressure regulator is a device which is used to change the phase of LPG from liquid to gas by decreasing the pressure. During the phase change, it is necessary to supply the latent heat of LPG to prevent excessive low temperature. Engine coolant is circulated in the pressure regulator for this purpose. Therefore, pressure regulator is a type of heat exchanger that should be designed for different engine operating conditions. The design of the regulator should ensure that the flow of LPG is in gaseous phase to the injectors during the engine steady state and transient operating conditions. The pressure regulators in the LPG gaseous injection systems currently used can easily change the phase of LPG, however, there is no any control on the LPG temperature in conventional LPG injection systems. It is possible to increase temperature excessively. In this study, a control unit has been tested to keep the LPG temperature in a band. Result of the study showed that the engine performance characteristics can be increased by using the system.

Keywords: temperature, pressure regulator, LPG, PID

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Authors: Mohammad Borhani, Ahmad Jamshidzaei, Mehdi Koohsari

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The study of climate has captivated human interest throughout history. In response to this fascination, individuals historically organized their daily activities in alignment with prevailing climatic conditions and seasonal variations. Understanding the elements and specific climatic parameters of each region, such as precipitation, which directly impacts human life, is essential because, in recent years, there has been a significant increase in heavy rainfall in various parts of the world attributed to the effects of climate change. Climate prediction models suggest a future scenario characterized by an increase in severe precipitation events and related floods on a global scale. This is a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions causing changes in the natural precipitation patterns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported global warming in 2001. The average global temperature has shown an increasing trend since 1861. In the 20th century, this increase has been between (0/2 ± 0/6) °C. The present study focused on examining the trend of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation in Sistan and Baluchestan provinces. The study employed data obtained from 13 precipitation measurement stations managed by the Iran Water Resources Management Company, encompassing daily precipitation records spanning the period from 1997 to 2016. The results indicated that the total monthly precipitation at the studied stations in Sistan and Baluchestan province follows a sinusoidal trend. The highest intense precipitation was observed in January, February, and March, while the lowest occurred in September, October, and then November. The investigation of the trend of seasonal precipitation in this province showed that precipitation follows an upward trend in the autumn season, reaching its peak in winter, and then shows a decreasing trend in spring and summer. Also, the examination of average precipitation indicated that the highest yearly precipitation occurred in 1997 and then in 2004, while the lowest annual precipitation took place between 1999 and 2001. The analysis of the annual precipitation trend demonstrates a decrease in precipitation from 1997 to 2016 in Sistan and Baluchestan province.

Keywords: climate change, extreme precipitation, greenhouse gas, trend analysis

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Authors: K. Khadidja

Abstract:

Solitons are stable solution of nonlinear Schrodinger equation. Their stability is due to the exact combination between nonlinearity and dispersion which causes pulse broadening. Higher order solitons are born when nonlinear length is N multiple of dispersive length. Soliton order is determined by the number N itself. In this paper, evolution of higher order solitons is illustrated by simulation using Matlab. Results show that higher order solitons change their shape periodically, the reason why they are bad for transmission comparing to fundamental solitons which are constant. Partial analysis of a soliton of higher order explains that the periodic shape is due to the interplay between nonlinearity and dispersion which are not equal during a period. This class of solitons has many applications such as generation of supercontinuum and the impulse compression on the Femtosecond scale. As a conclusion, the periodicity which is harmful to transmission can be beneficial in other applications.

Keywords: dispersion, nonlinearity, optical fiber, soliton

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Authors: Kapil Pandey, Vishnu Goyal

Abstract:

Spatial and temporal data analysis is very well known in the field of satellite image processing. When spatial data are correlated with time, series analysis it gives the significant results in change detection studies. In this paper the GIS and Remote sensing techniques has been used to find the change detection using time series satellite imagery of Uttarakhand state during the years of 1990-2010. Natural vegetation, urban area, forest cover etc. were chosen as main landuse classes to study. Landuse/ landcover classes within several years were prepared using satellite images. Maximum likelihood supervised classification technique was adopted in this work and finally landuse change index has been generated and graphical models were used to present the changes.

Keywords: GIS, landuse/landcover, spatial and temporal data, remote sensing

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Authors: Jam Harley

Abstract:

The COVID-19 epidemic accelerated the speed of change in the workplace. Overnight, several individuals shifted from co-location in an office to hybrid or remote work. The pandemic also expedited and intensified the need to address persistent leadership and management concerns, including digital transformation, remote management, leading through fast change, anxiety, and uncertainty. Nonetheless, many leaders have failed to address the problems left behind by the epidemic. In a fundamental work devoted to comprehending what constitutes a human need, Maslow reiterates similar descriptors in his explanation of belongingness as the human need to be accepted, acknowledged, respected, and appreciated by a community of other individuals. This study aims to investigate the lived experiences of dispersed hybrid team members in order to find leadership best practices that improve team performance and retention through an increased individual’s sense of belonging.

Keywords: organizational change, belonging, diversity, equity

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Authors: M. Zaitoun, S. Cumming, A. Purcell

Abstract:

This study aims to determine if audiologists' experience characteristics in ABR (Auditory Brainstem Response) reading is associated with their performance in interpreting ABR results. Fifteen ABR traces with varying degrees of hearing level were presented twice, making a total of 30. Audiologists were asked to determine the hearing threshold for each of the cases after completing a brief survey regarding their experience and training in ABR administration. Sixty-one audiologists completed all tasks. Correlations between audiologists’ performance measures and experience variables suggested significant associations (p < 0.05) between training period in ABR testing and audiologists’ performance in terms of both sensitivity and accuracy. In addition, the number of years conducting ABR testing correlated with specificity. No other correlations approached significance. While there are relatively few significant correlations between ABR performance and experience, accuracy in ABR reading is associated with audiologists’ length of experience and period of training. To improve audiologists’ performance in reading ABR results, an emphasis on the importance of training should be raised and standardized levels and period for audiologists training in ABR testing should also be set.

Keywords: ABR, audiology, performance, training, experience

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Authors: Lia Matchavariani

Abstract:

Water reservoir construction on the rivers flowing into the sea complicates the coast protection, seashore starts to degrade causing coast erosion and disaster on the backdrop of current climate change. The instruments of the impact of a water reservoir on the climate and coastal areas are its contact surface with the atmosphere and the area irrigated with its water or humidified with infiltrated waters. The Black Sea coastline is characterized by the highest ecological vulnerability. The type and intensity of the water reservoir impact are determined by its morphometry, type of regulation, level regime, and geomorphological and geological characteristics of the adjoining area. Studies showed the impact of the water reservoir on the climate, on its comfort parameters is positive if it is located in the zone of insufficient humidity and vice versa, is negative if the water reservoir is found in the zone with abundant humidity. There are many natural and anthropogenic factors determining the peculiarities of the impact of the water reservoir on the climate, which can be assessed with maximum accuracy by the so-called “long series” method, which operates on the meteorological elements (temperature, wind, precipitations, etc.) with the long series formed with the stationary observation data. This is the time series, which consists of two periods with statistically sufficient duration. The first period covers the observations up to the formation of the water reservoir and another period covers the observations accomplished during its operation. If no such data are available, or their series is statistically short, “an analog” method is used. Such an analog water reservoir is selected based on the similarity of the environmental conditions. It must be located within the zone of the designed water reservoir, under similar environmental conditions, and besides, a sufficient number of observations accomplished in its coastal zone.

Keywords: coast-constituent sediment, eustasy, meteorological parameters, seashore degradation, water reservoirs impact

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Authors: Peregrine James Dalziel, Philip Vu Tran

Abstract:

Objective / Introduction: Demand for radiology services from Emergency Departments (ED) continues to increase with greater demands placed on radiology staff providing reports for the management of complex cases. Queuing theory indicates that wide variability of process time with the random nature of request arrival increases the probability of significant queues. This can lead to delays in the time-to-availability of radiology reports (TTA-RR) and potentially impaired ED patient flow. In addition, greater “cognitive workload” of greater volume may lead to reduced productivity and increased errors. We sought to quantify the potential ED flow improvements obtainable from increased radiology providers serving 3 public hospitals in Melbourne Australia. We sought to assess the potential productivity gains, quality improvement and the cost-effectiveness of increased labor inputs. Methods & Materials: The Western Health Medical Imaging Department moved from single resident coverage on weekend days 8:30 am-10:30 pm to a limited period of 2 resident coverage 1 pm-6 pm on both weekend days. The TTA-RR for weekend CT scans was calculated from the PACs database for the 8 month period symmetrically around the date of staffing change. A multivariate linear regression model was developed to isolate the improvement in TTA-RR, between the two 4-months periods. Daily and hourly scan volume at the time of each CT scan was calculated to assess the impact of varying department workload. To assess any improvement in report quality/errors a random sample of 200 studies was assessed to compare the average number of clinically significant over-read addendums to reports between the 2 periods. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by comparing the marginal cost of additional staffing against a conservative estimate of the economic benefit of improved ED patient throughput using the Australian national insurance rebate for private ED attendance as a revenue proxy. Results: The primary resident on call and the type of scan accounted for most of the explained variability in time to report availability (R2=0.29). Increasing daily volume and hourly volume was associated with increased TTA-RR (1.5m (p<0.01) and 4.8m (p<0.01) respectively per additional scan ordered within each time frame. Reports were available 25.9 minutes sooner on average in the 4 months post-implementation of double coverage (p<0.01) with additional 23.6 minutes improvement when 2 residents were on-site concomitantly (p<0.01). The aggregate average improvement in TTA-RR was 24.8 hours per weekend day This represents the increased decision-making time available to ED physicians and potential improvement in ED bed utilisation. 5% of reports from the intervention period contained clinically significant addendums vs 7% in the single resident period but this was not statistically significant (p=0.7). The marginal cost was less than the anticipated economic benefit based assuming a 50% capture of improved TTA-RR inpatient disposition and using the lowest available national insurance rebate as a proxy for economic benefit. Conclusion: TTA-RR improved significantly during the period of increased staff availability, both during the specific period of increased staffing and throughout the day. Increased labor utilisation is cost-effective compared with the potential improved productivity for ED cases requiring CT imaging.

Keywords: workflow, quality, administration, CT, staffing

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Authors: Kostas Philippopoulos, Chris G. Tzanis, Despina Deligiorgi

Abstract:

Climate change adaptation requires the exploitation of renewable energy sources such as wind. However, climate variability can affect the regional wind energy potential and consequently the available wind power production. The goal of the research project is to examine the impact of atmospheric circulation on wind energy production over Greece. In the context of synoptic climatology, the proposed novel methodology employs Self-Organizing Maps for grouping and classifying the atmospheric circulation and nationally-aggregated capacity factor time series for a 30-year period. The results indicate the critical effect of atmospheric circulation on the national aggregated wind energy production values and therefore address the issue of optimum distribution of wind farms for a specific region.

Keywords: wind energy, atmospheric circulation, capacity factor, self-organizing maps

Procedia PDF Downloads 139