Search results for: decisions tree

Authors: Laxuman Thakuri

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Despite the large number of in-depth case studies focused on policy analysis, institutional arrangement, and collective action of common property resource management; how the local institutions take the pricing decision of forest products in community forest management and what kinds of effects produce it, the answers of these questions are largely silent among the policy-makers and researchers alike. The study examined how the local institutions take the pricing decision of forest products in the lowland community forestry of Nepal and how the decisions affect to equitable distribution of benefits and livelihood improvement which are also objectives of Nepalese community forestry. The study assumes that forest products pricing decisions have multiple effects on equitable distribution and livelihood improvement in the areas having heterogeneous socio-economic conditions. The dissertation was carried out at four community forests of lowland, Nepal that has characteristics of high value species, matured-experience of community forest management and better record-keeping system of forest products production, pricing and distribution. The questionnaire survey, individual to group discussions and direct field observation were applied for data collection from the field, and Lorenz curve, gini-coefficient, χ²-text, and SWOT (Strong, Weak, Opportunity, and Threat) analysis were performed for data analysis and results interpretation. The dissertation demonstrates that the low pricing strategy of high-value forest products was supposed crucial to increase the access of socio-economically weak households, and to and control over the important forest products such as timber, but found counter productive as the strategy increased the access of socio-economically better-off households at higher rate. In addition, the strategy contradicts to collect a large-scale community fund and carry out livelihood improvement activities as per the community forestry objectives. The crucial part of the study is despite the fact of low pricing strategy; the timber alone contributed large part of community fund collection. The results revealed close relation between pricing decisions and livelihood objectives. The action research result shows that positive price discrimination can slightly reduce the prevailing inequality and increase the fund. However, it lacks to harness the full price of forest products and collects a large-scale community fund. For broader outcomes of common property resource management in terms of resource sustainability, equity, and livelihood opportunity, the study suggests local institutions to harness the full price of resource products with respect to the local market.

Keywords: community, equitable, forest, livelihood, socioeconomic, Nepal

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Authors: Reza Morad Sahraei, Roghayeh Kazeminahad

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Surveying the structure of NP in Persian, this article tries to show that most of NP constituents are either independent of each other or they are dependent to Determiner Phrase (=DP). The writer follows a uniform minimal analysis to illustrate the structural position of relevant constituents of DP, including Possessive Phrase, Ezafat Phrase and Quantifier Phrase, under the tree diagram. The most important point of this article is the claim that NP is mostly one of the dependents of DP. Hence, the final section of the article deals with and analyzes the structure of DP in Persian. The DP analysis undertaken in this article has some advantages. It can explain the internal relevance of all DP constituents and provides them all a uniform analysis. Also, the semantic importance of Persian genitive marker and its role in parsing is borne out.

Keywords: determiner phrase (DP), ezafat phrase (Ezaf P), noun phrase(NP), possessive phrase (PossP), quantifier phrase (QP)

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Authors: Vidyadhar Suram, D. Chamundeeswari, Umamaheswara Rao, Krishna Mohan Chinnala

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Peltophorum pterocarpum known as copper pod belongs to the family Fabaceae, native to tropical south-eastern asia and a popularly ornamental tree grown around the world. In traditional medicine it is used as an astringent to cure or relieve intestinal disorders after pain at childbirth, sprains, bruises and swelling or as a lotion for eye troubles, muscular pains and sores. It is also used for gargles and tooth powders. Medcinally; it has proven to possess various pharmacological activities. The powdered root part of Peltophorum pterocarpum (250gr) were extracted exhaustively using different solvents and phytochemical investigations has shown the presence of various secondary metabolites like alkaloids, flavanoids, tannins, saponins, proteins, glycosides, steriods, and volatile.

Keywords: antibacterialactivity, fabaceae, peltophorum pterocarpum, isocoumari, alkaloids

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Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman

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This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.

Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk

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Authors: L. Atif, C. Rosenthal-Sabroux, M. Grundstein

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The requirements engineering process is a crucial phase in the design of complex systems. The purpose of our research is to present a collaborative problem-driven requirements engineering approach that aims at improving the design of a Decision Support System as an Analytics application. This approach has been adopted to design a Human Resource management DSS. The Requirements Engineering process is presented as a series of guidelines for activities that must be implemented to assure that the final product satisfies end-users requirements and takes into account the limitations identified. For this, we know that a well-posed statement of the problem is “a problem whose crucial character arises from collectively produced estimation and a formulation found to be acceptable by all the parties”. Moreover, we know that DSSs were developed to help decision-makers solve their unstructured problems. So, we thus base our research off of the assumption that developing DSS, particularly for helping poorly structured or unstructured decisions, cannot be done without considering end-user decision problems, how to represent them collectively, decisions content, their meaning, and the decision-making process; thus, arise the field issues in a multidisciplinary perspective. Our approach addresses a problem-driven and collaborative approach to designing DSS technologies: It will reflect common end-user problems in the upstream design phase and in the downstream phase these problems will determine the design choices and potential technical solution. We will thus rely on a categorization of HR’s problems for a development mirroring the Analytics solution. This brings out a new data-driven DSS typology: Descriptive Analytics, Explicative or Diagnostic Analytics, Predictive Analytics, Prescriptive Analytics. In our research, identifying the problem takes place with design of the solution, so, we would have to resort a significant transformations of representations associated with the HR Analytics application to build an increasingly detailed representation of the goal to be achieved. Here, the collective cognition is reflected in the establishment of transfer functions of representations during the whole of the design process.

Keywords: DSS, collaborative design, problem-driven requirements, analytics application, HR decision making

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Authors: Mohamed Sahli, David Bassir, Thierry Barriere, Xavier Roizard

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Predicting the behaviour of the Ti-6Al-4V alloy during the turning operation was very important in the choice of suitable cutting tools and also in the machining strategies. In this study, a 3D model with thermo-mechanical coupling has been proposed to study the influence of cutting parameters and also lubrication on the performance of cutting tools. The constants of the constitutive Johnson-Cook model of Ti-6Al-4V alloy were identified using inverse analysis based on the parameters of the orthogonal cutting process. Then, numerical simulations of the finishing machining operation were developed and experimentally validated for the cylindrical stock removal stage with the finishing cutting tool.

Keywords: titanium turning, cutting tools, FE simulation, chip

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Authors: Moriom Akter Mousumi, Spyridon Paparrizos, Fulco Ludwig

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Rice yield reduction due to climate change-induced disease occurrence is becoming a great concern for coastal farmers of Bangladesh. The development of participatory climate information services (CIS) based on farmers’ needs could implicitly facilitate farmers to get disease forecasts and make better decisions to manage diseases. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate how participatory climate information services assist coastal rice farmers to take up rice disease forecasts and better manage rice diseases by improving their informed decision-making. Through participatory approaches, we developed a tailor-made agrometeorological service through the DROP app to forecast rice diseases and manage them in advance. During farmers field schools (FFS) we communicated 7-day disease forecasts during face-to-face weekly meetings using printed paper and, messenger app derived from DROP app. Results show that the majority of the farmers understand disease forecasts through visualization, symbols, and text. The majority of them use disease forecast information directly from the DROP app followed by face-to-face meetings, messenger app, and printed paper. Farmers participation and engagement during capacity building training at FFS also assist them in making more informed decisions and improved management of diseases using both preventive measures and chemical measures throughout the rice cultivation period. We conclude that the development of participatory CIS and the associated capacity-building and training of farmers has increased farmers' understanding and uptake of disease forecasts to better manage of rice diseases. Participatory services such as the DROP app offer great potential as an adaptation option for climate-smart rice production under changing climatic conditions.

Keywords: participatory climate service, disease forecast, disease management, informed decision making, coastal Bangladesg

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Authors: Asma'u Mahe, Abdullahi A. Imam, Adamu J. Alhassan, Nasiru Abdullahi, Sadiya A. Bichi, Nura Lawal, Kamaluddeen Babagana

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Malaria is a disease with global health significance. It is caused by parasites and transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes. Increase in insecticide resistance threatens the disease vector control. The strength of selection pressure acting on a mosquito population in relation to insecticide resistance can be assess by determining the genetic diversity of a fragment spanning exon- 20 of IIS6 of the voltage gated sodium channel (VGSC). Larval samples reared to adulthood were identified and kdr (knock down resistance) profile was determined. The DNA sequences were used to assess the patterns of genetic differentiation by determining the levels of genetic variability between the Anopheles mosquitoes. Genetic differentiation of the Anopheles mosquitoes based on a portion of the voltage gated sodium channel gene was obtained. Polymorphisms were detected; sequence variation and analysis were presented as a phylogenetic tree. Phylogenetic tree of VGSC haplotypes was constructed for samples of the Anopheles mosquitoes using the maximum likelihood method in MEGA 6.0 software. DNA sequences were edited using BioEdit sequence editor. The edited sequences were aligned with reference sequence (Kisumu strain). Analyses were performed as contained in dnaSP 5.10. Results of genetic parameters of polymorphism and haplotype reconstruction were presented in count. Twenty sequences were used for the analysis. Regions selected were 1- 576, invariable (monomorphic) sites were 460 while variable (polymorphic) sites were 5 giving the number of total mutations observed in this study. Mutations obtained from the study were at codon 105: TTC- Phenylalanine replaces TCC- Serine, codon 513: TAG- Termination replaces TTG- Leucine, codon 153, 300 and 553 mutations were non-synonymous. From the constructed phylogenetic tree, some groups were shown to be closer with Exon20Gambiae Kisumu (Reference strain) having some genetic distance, while 5-Exon20Gambiae-F I13.ab1, 18-Exon20Gambiae-F C17.ab1, and 2-Exon20Gambiae-F C13.ab1 clustered together genetically differentiated away from others. Mutations observed in this study can be attributed to the high insecticide resistance profile recorded in the study areas. Haplotype networks of pattern of genetic variability and polymorphism for the fragment of the VGSC sequences of sampled Anopheles mosquitoes revealed low haplotypes for the present study. Haplotypes are set of closely linked DNA variation on X-chromosome. Haplotypes were scaled accordingly to reflect their respective frequencies. Low haplotype number, four VGSC-1014F haplotypes were observed in this study. A positive association was previously established between low haplotype number of VGSC diversity and pyrethroid resistance through kdr mechanism. Significant values at (P < 0.05) of Tajima D and Fu and Li D’ were observed for some of the results indicating possible signature of positive selection on the fragment of VGSC in the study. This is the first report of VGSC-1014F in the study site. Based on the results, the mutation was present in low frequencies. However, the roles played by the observed mutations need further investigation. Mutations, environmental factors among others can affect genetic diversity. The study area has recorded increase in insecticide resistance that can affect vector control in the area. This finding might affect the efforts made against malaria. Sequences were deposited in GenBank for Accession Number.

Keywords: anopheles mosquitoes, insecticide resistance, kdr, malaria, voltage gated sodium channel

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Authors: Carmen Maria Hernandez-Nicolas, Juan Francisco Martín-Ugedo, Antonio Mínguez-Vera

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This paper analyses the influence of gender of the mayors of Spanish local governments on different budget items using a sample of 8,243 town councils between 2002 and 2010 period and 64,361 observations. The system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique was employed to examine this panel data. This powerful methodology allows controlling for the endogenity of the variables and the heterogeneity of the sample. Unlike previous works focused on the study of gender influence on firm decisions, the present work analyzes the influence of the gender of the major in the council’s decisions. Specifically, we examine the differences in financial liabilities, security, protection and social promotion expenses and income items relating to public management. In addition, the study focuses on the Spanish context, which is characterized by the presence of decentralization of public responsibility to a greater extent than in neighboring countries, feeding the debate on the operational efficiency of local government increased with an open debate on the importance of gender in public management. The results show that female mayors tend to have lower expenses in general without significant differences in incomes obtained for men and women majors. We also find that female majors incur fewer financial liabilities, one of the most important problems in the Spanish public sector. However, despite of cutting in the public sector, these councils have higher expenditure on security, protection and social promotion. According to these evidences, the presence of women in politics may serve to improve the councils’ economic situation and it is not only necessary for social justice but for economics efficiency. Besides, in councils with more inhabitants, women mayors are more common, but women who served for a very long time are less common.

Keywords: councils, gender, local budgets, public management, women mayors

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Authors: Rattanathip Rattanachai, Kunyanuth Kularbphettong

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This paper describes the development of a Vegetation Searching System based on Web Application in case of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The model was developed by PHP, JavaScript, and MySQL database system and it was designed to support searching endemic and rare species of tree on web site. We describe the design methods and functional components of this prototype. To evaluate the system performance, questionnaires for system usability and Black Box Testing were used to measure expert and user satisfaction. The results were satisfactory as followed: Means for experts and users were 4.3 and 4.5, and standard deviation for experts and users were 0.61 and 0.73 respectively. Further analysis showed that the quality of plant searching web site was also at a good level as well.

Keywords: endemic species, vegetation, web-based system, black box testing, Thailand

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Authors: S. Mamoucha, J. Rahul, N. Christodoulakis

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Introduction: Nature has been the source of medicinal agents since the dawn of the human existence on Earth. Currently, millions of people, in the developing world, rely on medicinal plants for primary health care, income generation and lifespan improvement. In Greece, more than 5500 plant taxa are reported while about 250 of them are considered to be of great pharmaceutical importance. Among the plants used for medical purposes, Vitex agnus-castus L. (Verbenaceae) is known since ancient times. It is a small tree or shrub, widely distributed in the Mediterranean basin up to the Central Asia. It is also known as chaste tree or monks pepper. Theophrastus mentioned the shrub several times, as ‘agnos’ in his ‘Enquiry into Plants’. Dioscorides mentioned the use of V. agnus-castus for the stimulation of lactation in nursing mothers and the treatment of several female disorders. The plant has important medicinal properties and a long tradition in folk medicine as an antimicrobial, diuretic, digestive and insecticidal agent. Materials and methods: Leaves were cleaned, detached, fixed, sectioned and investigated with light and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). Histochemical tests were executed as well. Specific histochemical reagents (osmium tetroxide, H2SO4, vanillin/HCl, antimony trichloride, Wagner’ s reagent, Dittmar’ s reagent, potassium bichromate, nitroso reaction, ferric chloride and di methoxy benzaldehyde) were used for the sub cellular localization of secondary metabolites. Results: Light microscopical investigations of the elongated leaves of V. agnus-castus revealed three layers of palisade parenchyma, just below the single layered adaxial epidermis. The spongy parenchyma is rather loose. Adaxial epidermal cells are larger in magnitude, compared to those of the abaxial epidermis. Four different types of capitate, secreting trichomes, were localized among the abaxial epidermal cells. Stomata were observed at the abaxial epidermis as well. SEM revealed the interesting arrangement of trichomes. Histochemical treatment on fresh and plastic embedded tissue sections revealed the nature and the sites of secondary metabolites accumulation (flavonoids, steroids, terpenes). Acknowledgment: This work was supported by IKY - State Scholarship Foundation, Athens, Greece.

Keywords: Vitex agnus-castus, leaf anatomy, histochemical reagents, secondary metabolites

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Authors: Lokesh Harshe

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The building construction sector is using 36% of global energy consumption with 39% of CO₂ emission. Professionals in the Built Environment Sector have long been aware of the industry’s contribution towards CO₂ emissions and are now moving towards more sustainable practices. As a result of this, many organizations have introduced rating systems to address the issue of global warming in the construction sector by ranking construction projects based on sustainability parameters. The pre-construction phase of any building project is the most essential time to make decisions for addressing the sustainability aspects. Traditionally, it is very difficult to collect data from different stakeholders and bring it together to form a decision based on factual data to perform sustainability analyses in the pre-construction phase. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is the solution where one single model is the result of the collaborative approach of BIM processes where all the information is shared, extracted, communicated, and stored on a single platform that everyone can access and make decisions based on real-time data. The focus of this research is on the Indian Green Rating System IGBC® with the objective of understanding IGBC® requirements and developing a framework to create the relationship between the rating processes and BIM. A Hypothetical (Architectural) model of a hostel building is developed using AutoCAD 2019 & Revit Arch. 2019, where the framework is applied to generate results on sustainability analysis using Green Building Studio (GBS) and Revit Add-ins. The results of any sustainability analysis are generated within a fraction of a minute, which is very quick in comparison with traditional sustainability analysis. This may save a considerable amount of time as well as cost. The future scope is to integrate Architectural, Structural, and MEP Models to perform accurate sustainability analyses with inputs from industry professionals working on real-life Green BIM projects.

Keywords: sustainability analyses, BIM, green rating systems, IGBC®, LEED

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Authors: Djehich Mohamed Yousri

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As a result of the destruction and devastation left by the two world wars, the international community worked to establish a global organization based on a contractual basis, in which the Security Council was entrusted with the task of working to maintain international peace and security, and to achieve this, the United Nations Charter assigned the latter a wide authority to adapt everything It would threaten international peace and security, although the examiner of the Charter of the United Nations does not find the slightest definition of the concept of international peace and security, although these two principles are among the basic principles that the Charter stipulated the necessity of achieving, and perhaps this was also what was in the opposite case for them. And by that, we mean cases of a threat to peace, a breach of it, or an act of aggression. These terms were not dealt with in the Charter in explanation and detail, leaving ample room for the Security Council to assess each of these cases separately, and perhaps this is due to the fact that the framers of the Charter intended to set a flexible standard. It does not restrict the authority of the Security Council to carry out the adjustment process on the one hand and, on the other hand, to allow and enable the Security Council to keep pace with new developments and threats to which international peace and security are exposed. There is no doubt that the concept of international peace and security has undergone significant changes during the 70-year period that followed the establishment of the international organization. After the threat to peace and security focused - in the first stage - on cases of war or the threat of war, what distinguishes the post- The new world order is the emergence of other challenges and threats that find their source in economic, social, humanitarian, and environmental instability. Perhaps this is what the member states of the Security Council indicated during the preparation of the Peace Agenda. The expansion of the concept of peace and security is what paved the way for some permanent states to use the Security Council to legitimize and implement their decisions and take the council as a tool to implement their foreign policy and punish states instead of maintaining international peace and security, which prompted some states and jurisprudence to call for the establishment of oversight of the decisions of the Council Security on the one hand, and amending the UN Charter to make it more expressive of the aspirations of the international community, referring to the obstacles that prevent this amendment.

Keywords: peace, security, united nations charter, security council, united nations organization

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Authors: Ana Staneva, Vessela Stoimenova

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A parametric estimation of the MBP with Power Series offspring distribution family is considered in this paper. The MLE for the parameters is obtained in the case when the observable data are incomplete and consist only with the generation sizes of the family tree of MBP. The parameter estimation is calculated by using the Monte Carlo EM algorithm. The estimation for the posterior distribution and for the offspring distribution parameters are calculated by using the Bayesian approach and the Gibbs sampler. The article proposes various examples with bivariate branching processes together with computational results, simulation and an implementation using R.

Keywords: Bayesian, branching processes, EM algorithm, Gibbs sampler, Monte Carlo methods, statistical estimation

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Authors: Srinaath Anbu Durai, Wang Zhaoxia

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Twitter sentiment has been used as a predictor to predict price values or trends in both the stock market and housing market. The pioneering works in this stream of research drew upon works in behavioural economics to show that sentiment or emotions impact economic decisions. Latest works in this stream focus on the algorithm used as opposed to the data used. A literature review of works in this stream through the lens of data used shows that there is a paucity of work that considers the impact of sentiments caused due to an external factor on either the stock or the housing market. This is despite an abundance of works in behavioural economics that show that sentiment or emotions caused due to an external factor impact economic decisions. To address this gap, this research studies the impact of Twitter sentiment pertaining to the Covid-19 pandemic on resale Housing Development Board (HDB) apartment prices in Singapore. It leverages SNSCRAPE to collect tweets pertaining to Covid-19 for sentiment analysis, lexicon based tools VADER and TextBlob are used for sentiment analysis, Granger Causality is used to examine the relationship between Covid-19 cases and the sentiment score, and neural networks are leveraged as prediction models. Twitter sentiment pertaining to Covid-19 as a predictor of HDB price in Singapore is studied in comparison with the traditional predictors of housing prices i.e., the structural and neighbourhood characteristics. The results indicate that using Twitter sentiment pertaining to Covid19 leads to better prediction than using only the traditional predictors and performs better as a predictor compared to two of the traditional predictors. Hence, Twitter sentiment pertaining to an external factor should be considered as important as traditional predictors. This paper demonstrates the real world economic applications of sentiment analysis of Twitter data.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, Covid-19, housing price prediction, tweets, social media, Singapore HDB, behavioral economics, neural networks

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Authors: Amna Ali Al-Saadi, Riken Homma, Kazuhisa Iki

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Despite the fact that many places have successes in achieving some aspects of sustainable urban development, there are no scientific facts to convince decision makers. Also, each of them was developed to fulfill the need of specific city only. Therefore, objective method to generate the solutions from a successful case is the aim of this research. The questions were: how to learn the lesson from each case study; how to distinguish the potential criteria and negative one; snd how to quantify their effects in the future development. Walkability has been selected as a goal. This is because it has been found as a solution to achieve healthy life style as well as social, environmental and economic sustainability. Moreover, it has complication as every aspect of sustainable development. This research is stand on quantitative- comparative methodology in order to assess pedestrian oriented development. Three analyzed area (AAs) were selected. One site is located in Oman in which hypotheses as motorized oriented development, while two sites are in Japan where the development is pedestrian friendly. The study used Multi- criteria evaluation method (MCEM). Initially, MCEM stands on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The later was structured into main goal (walkability), objectives (functions and layout) and attributes (the urban form criteria). Secondly, the GIS were used to evaluate the attributes in multi-criteria maps. Since each criterion has different scale of measurement, all results were standardized by z-score and used to measure the co-relations among criteria. As results, different scenario was generated from each AA. MCEM (AHP-OWA)-GIS measured the walkability score and determined the priority of criteria development in the non-walker friendly environment. The comparison criteria for z-score presented a measurable distinguished orientation of development. This result has been used to prove that Oman is motorized environment while Japan is walkable. Also, it defined the powerful criteria and week criteria regardless to the AA. This result has been used to generalize the priority for walkable development. In conclusion, the method was found successful in generate scientific base for policy decisions.

Keywords: walkability, policy decisions, sustainable development, GIS

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Authors: Anita Lazurko, Laszlo Pinter, Jeremy Richardson

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Uncertain climate projections, multiple possible development futures, and a financing gap create challenges for water infrastructure decision making. In contrast to conventional predict-plan-act methods, an emerging decision paradigm that enables social-ecological resilience supports decisions that are appropriate for uncertainty and leverage social, ecological, and economic multifunctionality. Concurrently, water infrastructure project finance plays a powerful role in sustainable infrastructure development but remains disconnected from discourse in socio-ecological resilience. At the time of research, a project to transfer water from Lesotho to Botswana through South Africa in the Orange-Senqu River Basin was at the pre-feasibility stage. This case was analysed through documents and interviews to investigate how uncertainty and multifunctionality are conceptualised and considered in decisions for the resilience of water infrastructure and to explore bridging concepts that might allow project finance to better enable socio-ecological resilience. Interviewees conceptualised uncertainty as risk, ambiguity and ignorance, and multifunctionality as politically-motivated shared benefits. Numerous efforts to adopt emerging decision methods that consider these terms were in use but required compromises to accommodate the persistent, conventional decision paradigm, though a range of future opportunities was identified. Bridging these findings to finance revealed opportunities to consider a more comprehensive scope of risk, to leverage risk mitigation measures, to diffuse risks and benefits over space, time and to diverse actor groups, and to clarify roles to achieve multiple objectives for resilience. In addition to insights into how multiple decision paradigms interact in real-world decision contexts, the research highlights untapped potential at the juncture between socio-ecological resilience and project finance.

Keywords: socio-ecological resilience, finance, multifunctionality, uncertainty

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Authors: Behzad Hezarkhani, Greys Sosic

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Collaborative purchasing and replenishment have proven to be beneficial in supply chain management. This talk addresses the situation where buyers, potentially in possession of private procurement channels, carry out cooperative purchasing by submitting their bids to a coordinator. The collaborative organization is faced with two basic decisions: (1) who will be allocated with the products, and (2) how much each party should pay. We discuss mechanisms that could achieve desirable outcomes in this settings with special attention to the strategic behavior of the buyers.

Keywords: supply chain management, group purchasing organizations, game theory, mechanism design

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Authors: Nuno Biga

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) allows machines to interpret information and learn from context analysis, giving them the ability to make predictions adjusted to each specific situation. In addition to learning by performing deterministic and probabilistic calculations, the 'artificial brain' also learns through information and data provided by those who train it, namely its users. The "Assisted-BIGAMES" version of the Accident & Emergency (A&E) simulator introduces the concept of a "Virtual Assistant" (VA) that provides users with useful suggestions, namely to pursue the following operations: a) to relocate workstations in order to shorten travelled distances and minimize the stress of those involved; b) to identify in real time the bottleneck(s) in the operations system so that it is possible to quickly act upon them; c) to identify resources that should be polyvalent so that the system can be more efficient; d) to identify in which specific processes it may be advantageous to establish partnership with other teams; and e) to assess possible solutions based on the suggested KPIs allowing action monitoring to guide the (re)definition of future strategies. This paper is built on the BIGAMES© simulator and presents the conceptual AI model developed in a pilot project. Each Virtual Assisted BIGAME is a management simulator developed by the author that guides operational and strategic decision making, providing users with useful information in the form of management recommendations that make it possible to predict the actual outcome of different alternative management strategic actions. The pilot project developed incorporates results from 12 editions of the BIGAME A&E that took place between 2017 and 2022 at AESE Business School, based on the compilation of data that allows establishing causal relationships between decisions taken and results obtained. The systemic analysis and interpretation of this information is materialised in the Assisted-BIGAMES through a computer application called "BIGAMES Virtual Assistant" that players can use during the Game. Each participant in the Virtual Assisted-BIGAMES permanently asks himself about the decisions he should make during the game in order to win the competition. To this end, the role of the VA of each team consists in guiding the players to be more effective in their decision making through presenting recommendations based on AI methods. It is important to note that the VA's suggestions for action can be accepted or rejected by the managers of each team, and as the participants gain a better understanding of the game, they will more easily dispense with the VA's recommendations and rely more on their own experience, capability, and knowledge to support their own decisions. Preliminary results show that the introduction of the VA provides a faster learning of the decision-making process. The facilitator (Serious Game Controller) is responsible for supporting the players with further analysis and the recommended action may be (or not) aligned with the previous recommendations of the VA. All the information should be jointly analysed and assessed by each player, who are expected to add “Emotional Intelligence”, a component absent from the machine learning process.

Keywords: artificial intelligence (AI), gamification, key performance indicators (KPI), machine learning, management simulators, serious games, virtual assistant

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Authors: Gábor Kocsmárik

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The topic of this is coercive measures against assets in which the factor of the procedure contains a foreign element. We speak of cross-border enforcement if the debtor or the property requesting enforcement or subject to enforcement is not located in the bordering country. Given that the jurisdiction of a country cannot extend beyond its borders, the cooperation of nations and the mutual recognition of their decisions are necessary to eliminate this. In addition, it is essential to create framework rules that are binding and enforceable for each country participating in the convention. During the study, some conventions between countries that are still in force will be presented, which can serve as a starting point for dealing with existing problems.

Keywords: law, execution, civil procedure law, international

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Authors: Laura M. F. Bertens

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There is a long tradition of visually representing the art historical canon, in schematic overviews and diagrams. This is indicative of the desire for scientific, ‘objective’ knowledge of the kind (seemingly) produced in the natural sciences. These diagrams will, however, always retain an element of subjectivity and the modelling methods colour our perception of the represented information. In recent decades visualisations of art historical data, such as hand-drawn diagrams in textbooks, have been extended to include digital, computational tools. These tools significantly increase modelling strength and functionality. As such, they might be used to deconstruct and amend the very problem caused by traditional visualisations of the canon. In this paper, the use of digital tools for modelling the art historical canon is studied, in order to draw attention to the artificial nature of the static models that art historians are presented with in textbooks and lectures, as well as to explore the potential of digital, dynamic tools in creating new models. To study the way diagrams of the canon mediate the represented information, two modelling methods have been used on two case studies of existing diagrams. The tree diagram Stammbaum der neudeutschen Kunst (1823) by Ferdinand Olivier has been translated to a social network using the program Visone, and the famous flow chart Cubism and Abstract Art (1936) by Alfred Barr has been translated to an ontological model using Protégé Ontology Editor. The implications of the modelling decisions have been analysed in an art historical context. The aim of this project has been twofold. On the one hand the translation process makes explicit the design choices in the original diagrams, which reflect hidden assumptions about the Western canon. Ways of organizing data (for instance ordering art according to artist) have come to feel natural and neutral and implicit biases and the historically uneven distribution of power have resulted in underrepresentation of groups of artists. Over the last decades, scholars from fields such as Feminist Studies, Postcolonial Studies and Gender Studies have considered this problem and tried to remedy it. The translation presented here adds to this deconstruction by defamiliarizing the traditional models and analysing the process of reconstructing new models, step by step, taking into account theoretical critiques of the canon, such as the feminist perspective discussed by Griselda Pollock, amongst others. On the other hand, the project has served as a pilot study for the use of digital modelling tools in creating dynamic visualisations of the canon for education and museum purposes. Dynamic computer models introduce functionalities that allow new ways of ordering and visualising the artworks in the canon. As such, they could form a powerful tool in the training of new art historians, introducing a broader and more diverse view on the traditional canon. Although modelling will always imply a simplification and therefore a distortion of reality, new modelling techniques can help us get a better sense of the limitations of earlier models and can provide new perspectives on already established knowledge.

Keywords: canon, ontological modelling, Protege Ontology Editor, social network modelling, Visone

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Authors: Johannes Mertl

Abstract:

Our surrounding air contains various particles. Besides typical representatives of inorganic dust, such as soot and ash, also particles originating from animals, microorganisms or plants are floating through the air, so-called bioaerosols. The group of bioaerosols consists of a broad spectrum of particles of different size, including fungi, bacteria, viruses, spores, or tree, flower and grass pollen that are of high relevance for allergy sufferers. In dependence of the environmental climate and the actual season, these allergenic particles can be found in enormous numbers in the air and are inhaled by humans via the respiration tract, with a potential for inflammatory diseases of the airways, such as asthma or allergic rhinitis. As a consequence air filter systems of ventilation and air conditioning devices are required to meet very high standards to prevent, or at least lower the number of allergens and airborne germs entering the indoor air. Still, filter systems are merely classified for their separation rates using well-defined mineral test dust, while no appropriate sufficiently standardized test methods for bioaerosols exist. However, determined separation rates for mineral test particles of a certain size cannot simply be transferred to bioaerosols, as separation efficiency of particularly fine and respirable particles (< 10 microns) is dependent not only on their shape and particle diameter, but also defined by their density and physicochemical properties. For this reason, the OFI developed a test method, which directly enables a testing of filters and filter media for their separation rates on bioaerosols, as well as a classification of filters. Besides allergens from an intact or fractured tree or grass pollen, allergenic proteins bound to particulates, as well as allergenic fungal spores (e.g. Cladosporium cladosporioides), or bacteria can be used to classify filters regarding their separation rates. Allergens passing through the filter can then be detected by highly sensitive immunological assays (ELISA) or in the case of fungal spores by microbiological methods, which allow for the detection of even one single spore passing the filter. The test procedure, which is carried out in laboratory scale, was furthermore validated regarding its sufficiency to cover real life situations by upscaling using air conditioning devices showing great conformity in terms of separation rates. Additionally, a clinical study with allergy sufferers was performed to verify analytical results. Several different air conditioning filters from the car industry have been tested, showing significant differences in their separation rates.

Keywords: airborne germs, allergens, classification of filters, fine dust

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Ali Abbas

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Industrial Engineering is a broad multidisciplinary field with intersections and applications in numerous areas. In out current environment, the path from a phenomenon to value involves numerous people with expertise in various areas including domain knowledge of a field and the ability to make decisions within an operating environment that lead to value creation. We propose some skills that industrial engineering programs should focus on, and argue that an industrial engineer is a decision maker instead of a problem solver.

Keywords: decision analysis, problem-solving, value creation, industrial engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Riona Dighe

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This research attempts to identify an alternative approach to the measurement of Gross National Happiness (GNH). It uses artificial intelligence (AI), incorporating natural language processing (NLP) and sentiment analysis to measure GNH. We use ‘off the shelf’ NLP models responsible for the sentiment analysis of a sentence as a building block for this research. We constructed an algorithm using NLP models to derive a sentiment analysis score against sentences. This was then tested against a sample of 20 respondents to derive a sentiment analysis score. The scores generated resembled human responses. By utilising the MLP classifier, decision tree, linear model, and K-nearest neighbors, we were able to obtain a test accuracy of 89.97%, 54.63%, 52.13%, and 47.9%, respectively. This gave us the confidence to use the NLP models against sentences in websites to measure the GNH of a country.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, NLP, sentiment analysis, gross national happiness

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Bharatendra Rai

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Cutting tools are widely used in manufacturing processes and drilling is the most commonly used machining process. Although drill-bits used in drilling may not be expensive, their breakage can cause damage to expensive work piece being drilled and at the same time has major impact on productivity. Predicting drill-bit breakage, therefore, is important in reducing cost and improving productivity. This study uses twenty features extracted from two degradation signals viz., thrust force and torque. The methodology used involves developing and comparing decision tree, random forest, and multinomial logistic regression models for classifying and predicting drill-bit breakage using degradation signals.

Keywords: degradation signal, drill-bit breakage, random forest, multinomial logistic regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Antonia Syn

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Politicians’ outlooks on the nature of energy futures and an ‘Energy Transition’ have evolved considerably alongside a steady movement towards renewable energies, buttressed by lower technology costs, rising environmental concerns, and favourable national policy decisions. This paper seeks to examine the degree to which an energy transition has become an incontrovertible ‘status quo’ in parliament, and whether politicians share similar understandings of energy futures or narrate different stories under the same label. Parliamentarians construct different understandings of the same reality, in the form of co-existing and competing discourses, shaping and restricting how policy problems and solutions are understood and tackled. Approaching energy policymaking from a parliamentary discourse perspective draws directly from actors’ concrete statements, offering an alternative to policy literature debates revolving around inductive policy theories. This paper uses computer-assisted discourse analysis to describe fundamental discursive changes in British parliamentary debates around energy futures. By applying correspondence cluster analyses to Hansard transcripts from 1986 to 2010, we empirically measure the policy positions of Labour and Conservative politicians’ parliamentary speeches during legislatively salient moments preceding significant energy transition-related policy decisions. Results show the concept of a technology-based, market-driven transition towards fossil-free and nuclear-free renewables integration converged across Labour and the Conservatives within three decades. Specific storylines underwent significant change, particularly in relation to international outlooks, environmental framings, treatments of risk, and increases in rhetoric. This study contributes to a better understanding of the role politics plays in the energy transition, highlighting how politicians’ values and beliefs inevitably determine and delimit creative policymaking.

Keywords: quantitative discourse analysis, energy transition, renewable energy, British parliament, public policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Sarthak Kumar Jena, Chandra Sekhar Mishra, Prabina Rajib

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Purpose: This paper aims to derive undervaluation signal from the insiders trading of Indian companies where the ownership is complex and concentrated, investors protection is weak, and the insider rules and regulations are not stringent like developed country. This study examines the relationship between insider trading with short term and long term abnormal return. The study also examines the relationship between insider trading and the actual share repurchase by the firm. Methodology: A sample of 78 companies over the period 2008-2013 are analyzed in the study due to not availability of insider data in Indian context. For preliminary analysis T-test and Wilcoxon rank sum test is used to find the difference between the insider trading before and after the share repurchase announcement. Tobit model is used to find out whether insider trading influence shares repurchase decisions or not. Return on the basis of market model and buy hold are calculated in the previous year and the following year of share repurchase announcement. Findings: The paper finds that insider trading around share repurchase is more than control firms and there is positive and significant difference in insider buying between the previous year of share buyback announcement and the following year of buyback announcement. Insider buying before share repurchase announcement has a positive influence on share repurchase decisions. We find insider buying has a positive and significant relationship with announcement return, whereas insider selling has a negative significant relationship with announcement return. Actual share repurchase and program completion also depend on insider trading before share repurchase. Research limitation: The study is constrained by the small sample size, so the results should be viewed by keeping this limitation in mind. Originality: The paper is to our best knowledge the first study based on Indian context to extend the insider trading literature to share repurchase event and examine insider trading to find out undervaluation signal associated with insider buying.

Keywords: insider trading, buyback, open market share repurchase, signalling

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Amirreza Fazely Hamedani, Muzzamil Aziz, Philipp Wieder, Ramin Yahyapour

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Software-defined networking in recent years came into the sight of so many network designers as a successor to the traditional networking. Unlike traditional networks where control and data planes engage together within a single device in the network infrastructure such as switches and routers, the two planes are kept separated in software-defined networks (SDNs). All critical decisions about packet routing are made on the network controller, and the data level devices forward the packets based on these decisions. This type of network is vulnerable to DDoS attacks, degrading the overall functioning and performance of the network by continuously injecting the fake flows into it. This increases substantial burden on the controller side, and the result ultimately leads to the inaccessibility of the controller and the lack of network service to the legitimate users. Thus, the protection of this novel network architecture against denial of service attacks is essential. In the world of cybersecurity, attacks and new threats emerge every day. It is essential to have tools capable of managing and analyzing all this new information to detect possible attacks in real-time. These tools should provide a comprehensive solution to automatically detect, predict and prevent abnormalities in the network. Big data encompasses a wide range of studies, but it mainly refers to the massive amounts of structured and unstructured data that organizations deal with on a regular basis. On the other hand, it regards not only the volume of the data; but also that how data-driven information can be used to enhance decision-making processes, security, and the overall efficiency of a business. This paper presents an intelligent big data framework as a solution to handle illegitimate traffic burden on the SDN network created by the numerous DDoS attacks. The framework entails an efficient defence and monitoring mechanism against DDoS attacks by employing the state of the art machine learning techniques.

Keywords: apache spark, apache kafka, big data, DDoS attack, machine learning, SDN network

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Noureddine Mahmoudi

Abstract:

The use of natural fibers in the development of composite materials is a sector in full expansion. These fibers were used for their low cost, their availability and their renewable character. The fibers of the palm (palm tree) were used as reinforcement in polypropylene (PP). The date palm fibers have some potential because of their ecological and economic interest. Both unmodified and compatibilized fibers are used. Compatibilization was carried out with the use of maleic anhydride copolymers. The morphology and mechanical properties were characterized by electron microscopy scanning (SEM) and tensile tests. The influence of fiber content on mechanical properties of composite PP / date palm has been evaluated and demonstrated, that the maximum stress and elongation decreases with increasing fiber volume rate. On the other hand, an increase of the tensile modulus has been noticed, but after the fibers improvement, the maximum stress increases significantly up to 25% weight.

Keywords: plant fiber, palm, SEM, compatibilizer

Procedia PDF Downloads 437

Authors: C. R. Ríos-Soberanis, V. M. Moo-Huchin, R. J. Estrada-Leon, E. Perez-Pacheco

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Polymers from renewable resources have attracted an increasing amount of attention over the last two decades, predominantly due to two major reasons: firstly environmental concerns, and secondly the realization that our petroleum resources are finite. Finding new uses for agricultural commodities is also an important area of research. Therefore, it is crucial to get new sources of natural materials that can be used in different applications. Ramon tree (Brosimum alicastrum) is a tropical plant that grows freely in Yucatan countryside. This paper focuses on the seeds recollection, processing and starch extraction and characterization in order to find out about its suitability as biomaterial. Results demonstrated that it has a high content of qualities to be used not only as comestible but also as an important component in polymeric blends.

Keywords: biomaterials, characterization techniques, natural resource, starch

Procedia PDF Downloads 305