Search results for: clinical deterioration prediction

Authors: J. K. Alhassan, B. Attah, S. Misra

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Human beings have the ability to make logical decisions. Although human decision - making is often optimal, it is insufficient when huge amount of data is to be classified. medical dataset is a vital ingredient used in predicting patients health condition. In other to have the best prediction, there calls for most suitable machine learning algorithms. This work compared the performance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Decision Tree Algorithms (DTA) as regards to some performance metrics using diabetes data. The evaluations was done using weka software and found out that DTA performed better than ANN. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) were the two algorithms used for ANN, while RegTree and LADTree algorithms were the DTA models used. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of MLP is 0.3913,that of RBF is 0.3625, that of RepTree is 0.3174 and that of LADTree is 0.3206 respectively.

Keywords: artificial neural network, classification, decision tree algorithms, diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price

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Authors: Daly M. J, Condron C, Mulhall C, Eppich W, O'Neill J.

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Introduction: In contemporary clinical cardiology, comprehensive and holistic bedside evaluation including accurate cardiac auscultation is in decline despite having positive effects on patients and their outcomes. Methods: Scripted histories and scoring checklists for three clinical scenarios in cardiology were co-created and refined through iterative consensus by a panel of clinical experts; these were then paired with recordings of auscultatory findings from three actual patients with known valvular heart disease. A wearable vest with embedded pressure-sensitive panel speakers was developed to transmit these recordings when examined at the standard auscultation points. RCSI medical students volunteered for a series of three formative long case examinations in cardiology (LC1 – LC3) using this hybrid simulation. Participants were randomised into two groups: Group 1 received individual teaching from an expert trainer between LC1 and LC2; Group 2 received the same intervention between LC2 and LC3. Each participant’s long case examination performance was recorded and blindly scored by two peer participants and two RCSI examiners. Results: Sixty-eight participants were included in the study (age 27.6 ± 0.1 years; 74% female) and randomised into two groups; there were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between groups. Overall, the median total faculty examiner score was 39.8% (35.8 – 44.6%) in LC1 and increased to 63.3% (56.9 – 66.4%) in LC3, with those in Group 1 showing a greater improvement in LC2 total score than that observed in Group 2 (p < .001). Using the novel checklist, intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were excellent between examiners in all cases: ICC .994 – .997 (p < .001); correlation between peers and examiners improved in LC2 following peer grading of LC1 performances: ICC .857 – .867 (p < .001). Conclusion: Hybrid simulation and quantitative grading improve learning, standardisation of assessment, and direct comparisons of both performance and acumen in clinical cardiology.

Keywords: cardiology, clinical skills, long case examination, hybrid simulation, checklist

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Authors: Jui-Chien Hsieh

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Background:12-lead electrocardiography(ECG) is one of frequently-used tools to detect atrial fibrillation (AF), which might degenerate into life-threaten stroke, in clinical Practice. Based on this study, the AF detection by the clinically-used 12-lead ECG device has only 0.73~0.77 positive predictive value (ppv). Objective: It is on great demand to develop a new algorithm to improve the precision of AF detection using 12-lead ECG. Due to the progress on artificial intelligence (AI), we develop an ECG deep model that has the ability to recognize AF patterns and reduce false-positive errors. Methods: In this study, (1) 570-sample 12-lead ECG reports whose computer interpretation by the ECG device was AF were collected as the training dataset. The ECG reports were interpreted by 2 senior cardiologists, and confirmed that the precision of AF detection by the ECG device is 0.73.; (2) 88 12-lead ECG reports whose computer interpretation generated by the ECG device was AF were used as test dataset. Cardiologist confirmed that 68 cases of 88 reports were AF, and others were not AF. The precision of AF detection by ECG device is about 0.77; (3) A parallel 4-layer 1 dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) was developed to identify AF based on limb-lead ECGs and chest-lead ECGs. Results: The results indicated that this model has better performance on AF detection than traditional computer interpretation of the ECG device in 88 test samples with 0.94 ppv, 0.98 sensitivity, 0.80 specificity. Conclusions: As compared to the clinical ECG device, this AI ECG model promotes the precision of AF detection from 0.77 to 0.94, and can generate impacts on clinical applications.

Keywords: 12-lead ECG, atrial fibrillation, deep learning, convolutional neural network

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Authors: Wade Ghribi, Abdelmoty M. Ahmed, Ahmed Said Badawy, Belgacem Bouallegue

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In higher education institutions, the most pressing priority is to improve student performance and retention. Large volumes of student data are used in Educational Data Mining techniques to find new hidden information from students' learning behavior, particularly to uncover the early symptom of at-risk pupils. On the other hand, data with noise, outliers, and irrelevant information may provide incorrect conclusions. By identifying features of students' data that have the potential to improve performance prediction results, comparing and identifying the most appropriate ensemble learning technique after preprocessing the data, and optimizing the hyperparameters, this paper aims to develop a reliable students' performance prediction model for Higher Education Institutions. Data was gathered from two different systems: a student information system and an e-learning system for undergraduate students in the College of Computer Science of a Saudi Arabian State University. The cases of 4413 students were used in this article. The process includes data collection, data integration, data preprocessing (such as cleaning, normalization, and transformation), feature selection, pattern extraction, and, finally, model optimization and assessment. Random Forest, Bagging, Stacking, Majority Vote, and two types of Boosting techniques, AdaBoost and XGBoost, are ensemble learning approaches, whereas Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network are supervised learning techniques. Hyperparameters for ensemble learning systems will be fine-tuned to provide enhanced performance and optimal output. The findings imply that combining features of students' behavior from e-learning and students' information systems using Majority Vote produced better outcomes than the other ensemble techniques.

Keywords: educational data mining, student performance prediction, e-learning, classification, ensemble learning, higher education

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to preventing deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network.

Keywords: accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, k-mean, road safety

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Authors: Yilin Liao, Hewen Li, Paula McConvey

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Speed skaters often face a risk of concussion when they fall on the ice floor and impact crash mats during practices and competitive races. Several variables, including those related to the skater, the crash mat, and the impact position (body side/head/feet impact), are believed to influence the severity of the skater's concussion. While computer simulation modeling can be employed to analyze these accidents, the simulation process is time-consuming and does not provide rapid information for coaches and teams to assess the skater's injury risk in competitive events. This research paper promotes the exploration of the feasibility of using AI techniques for evaluating skater’s potential concussion severity, and to develop a fast concussion prediction tool using artificial neural networks to reduce the risk of treatment delays for injured skaters. The primary data is collected through virtual tests and physical experiments designed to simulate skater-mat impact. It is then analyzed to identify patterns and correlations; finally, it is used to train and fine-tune the artificial neural networks for accurate prediction. The development of the prediction tool by employing machine learning strategies contributes to the application of AI methods in sports science and has theoretical involvements for using AI techniques in predicting and preventing sports-related injuries.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, concussion, machine learning, impact, speed skater

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Authors: Gebreselassie Sebhatleab

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According to the Global Peace Index report (GPI, 2023), global peacefulness has deteriorated by more than 0.42%. Old and new conflicts, COVID-19, and political and cultural polarization are the main drivers of conflicts in the world. The 2022 was the deadliest year for armed conflict in the history of the GPI. In Ethiopia, over half a million people died in the Tigray war, which was the largest conflict death event since the 1994 Rwandan genocide. In total, 84 countries recorded an improvement, while 79 countries recorded a deterioration in peacefulness across the globe. The Russia-Ukraine war and its consequences were the main drivers of the deterioration in peacefulness globally. Both Russia and Ukraine are now ranked amongst the ten least peaceful countries, and Ukraine had the largest deterioration of any country in the 2023 GPI. In the same year, the global impact of violence on the economy was 17 percent, which was equivalent to 10.9% of global GDP. Besides, the brutal conflict in Tigray started in November. 2020 claimed more than half a million lives lost and displaced nearly 3 million people, along with widespread human rights violations and sexual violence has left deep damage on the population. The displaced people are still unable to return home because the western, southern and Eastern parts of Tigray are occupied by Eritrean and Amhara forces, despite the Pretoria Agreement. Currently, armed conflicts in Amhara in the Oromya regions are intensified, and human rights violations are being reported in both regions. Meanwhile, protests have been held by war-injured TDF members, IDPs and teachers in the Tigray region. Hence, the general objective of this project is to explore the challenges of peace-building processes in the border woredas of the Eastern Zone of the Tigray Region. Methodologically, the project will employ exploratory qualitative research designs to gather and analyze qualitative data. A purposive sampling technique will be applied to gather pertinent information from the key stakeholders. Open-ended interview questions will be prepared to gather relevant information about the challenges and perceptions of peacebuilding in the study area. Data will be analyzed using qualitative methods such as content analysis, narrative analysis and phenomenological analysis to deeply investigate the challenges of peace-building in the study woredas. Findings of this research project will be employed for program intervention to promote sustainable peace in the study area.

Keywords: peace building, conflcit and violence, political instability, insecurity

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Authors: Amit Kumar Verma

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The present study deals with fire prediction model in Terai Arc Landscape, one of the most dramatic ecosystems in Asia where large, wide-ranging species such as tiger, rhinos, and elephant will thrive while bringing economic benefits to the local people. Forest fires cause huge economic and ecological losses and release considerable quantities of carbon into the air and is an important factor inflating the global burden of carbon emissions. Forest fire is an important factor of behavioral cum ecological habit of tiger in wild. Post fire changes i.e. micro and macro habitat directly affect the tiger habitat or land. Vulnerability of fire depicts the changes in microhabitat (humus, soil profile, litter, vegetation, grassland ecosystem). Microorganism like spider, annelids, arthropods and other favorable microorganism directly affect by the forest fire and indirectly these entire microorganisms are responsible for the development of tiger (Panthera tigris) habitat. On the other hand, fire brings depletion in prey species and negative movement of tiger from wild to human- dominated areas, which may leads the conflict i.e. dangerous for both tiger & human beings. Early forest fire prediction through mapping the risk zones can help minimize the fire frequency and manage forest fires thereby minimizing losses. Satellite data plays a vital role in identifying and mapping forest fire and recording the frequency with which different vegetation types are affected. Thematic hazard maps have been generated by using IDW technique. A prediction model for fire occurrence is developed for TAL. The fire occurrence records were collected from state forest department from 2000 to 2014. Disciminant function models was used for developing a prediction model for forest fires in TAL, random points for non-occurrence of fire have been generated. Based on the attributes of points of occurrence and non-occurrence, the model developed predicts the fire occurrence. The map of predicted probabilities classified the study area into five classes very high (12.94%), high (23.63%), moderate (25.87%), low(27.46%) and no fire (10.1%) based upon the intensity of hazard. model is able to classify 78.73 percent of points correctly and hence can be used for the purpose with confidence. Overall, also the model works correctly with almost 69% of points. This study exemplifies the usefulness of prediction model of forest fire and offers a more effective way for management of forest fire. Overall, this study depicts the model for conservation of tiger’s natural habitat and forest conservation which is beneficial for the wild and human beings for future prospective.

Keywords: fire prediction model, forest fire hazard, GIS, landsat, MODIS, TAL

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Authors: Sangbok Lee

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There has been much effort on process improvement for outpatient clinics to provide quality and acute care to patients. One of the efforts is no-show analysis or prediction. This work analyzes patient no-shows along with patient health conditions. The health conditions refer to clinical symptoms that each patient has, out of the followings; hyperlipidemia, diabetes, metastatic solid tumor, dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, coronary artery disease, myocardial infraction, congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, drug dependence abuse, schizophrenia, major depression, and pain. A dataset from a regional hospital is used to find the relationship between the number of the symptoms and no-show probabilities. Additional analysis reveals how each symptom or combination of symptoms affects no-shows. In the above analyses, cross-classification of patients by age and gender is carried out. The findings from the analysis will be used to take extra care to patients with particular health conditions. They will be forced to visit clinics by being informed about their health conditions and possible consequences more clearly. Moreover, this work will be used in the preparation of making institutional guidelines for patient reminder systems.

Keywords: healthcare system, no show analysis, process improvment, statistical data analysis

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Authors: Abdullahi Jibrin, Aishetu Abdulkadir

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The development of allometric models is crucial to accurate forest biomass/carbon stock assessment. The aim of this study was to develop a set of biomass prediction models that will enable the determination of total tree aboveground biomass for savannah woodland area in Niger State, Nigeria. Based on the data collected through biometric measurements of 1816 trees and destructive sampling of 36 trees, five species specific and one site specific models were developed. The sample size was distributed equally between the five most dominant species in the study site (Vitellaria paradoxa, Irvingia gabonensis, Parkia biglobosa, Anogeissus leiocarpus, Pterocarpus erinaceous). Firstly, the equations were developed for five individual species. Secondly these five species were mixed and were used to develop an allometric equation of mixed species. Overall, there was a strong positive relationship between total tree biomass and the stem diameter. The coefficient of determination (R2 values) ranging from 0.93 to 0.99 P < 0.001 were realised for the models; with considerable low standard error of the estimates (SEE) which confirms that the total tree above ground biomass has a significant relationship with the dbh. The F-test value for the biomass prediction models were also significant at p < 0.001 which indicates that the biomass prediction models are valid. This study recommends that for improved biomass estimates in the study site, the site specific biomass models should preferably be used instead of using generic models.

Keywords: allometriy, biomass, carbon stock , model, regression equation, woodland, inventory

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Authors: Mennatallah M. Hussein, Olivier de Weck

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The advancement of space exploration demands a robust space launch services program capable of reliably propelling payloads into orbit. Despite rigorous testing and quality assurance, launch failures still occur, leading to significant financial losses and jeopardizing mission objectives. Traditional failure prediction methods often lack the sophistication to account for multi-mode failure scenarios, as well as the predictive capability in complex dynamic systems. Traditional approaches also rely on expert judgment, leading to variability in risk prioritization and mitigation strategies. Hence, there is a pressing need for robust approaches that enhance launch vehicle reliability from lift-off until it reaches its parking orbit through comprehensive simulation techniques. In this study, the developed model proposes a multi-mode launch vehicle simulation framework for predicting failure scenarios when incorporating new technologies, such as new propulsion systems or advanced staging separation mechanisms in the launch system. To this end, the model combined a 6-DOF system dynamics with comprehensive data analysis to simulate multiple failure modes impacting launch performance. The simulator utilizes high-fidelity physics-based simulations to capture the complex interactions between different subsystems and environmental conditions.

Keywords: launch vehicle, failure prediction, propulsion anomalies, rocket launch simulation, rocket dynamics

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Authors: Niloufar Yadgari

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GANs are a potent form of deep learning models that have found success in various fields. They are part of the larger group of generative techniques, which aim to produce authentic data using a probabilistic model that learns distributions from actual samples. In clinical settings, GANs have demonstrated improved abilities in capturing spatially intricate, nonlinear, and possibly subtle disease impacts in contrast to conventional generative techniques. This review critically evaluates the current research on how GANs are being used in imaging studies of different neurological conditions like Alzheimer's disease, brain tumors, aging of the brain, and multiple sclerosis. We offer a clear explanation of different GAN techniques for each use case in neuroimaging and delve into the key hurdles, unanswered queries, and potential advancements in utilizing GANs in this field. Our goal is to connect advanced deep learning techniques with neurology studies, showcasing how GANs can assist in clinical decision-making and enhance our comprehension of the structural and functional aspects of brain disorders.

Keywords: GAN, pathology, generative adversarial network, neuro imaging

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Authors: Rohini Hariharan, Yazhini R, Bhamidipati Naga Shrikarti

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In the realm of cricket, particularly within the context of the Indian Premier League (IPL), the ability to predict team scores accurately holds significant importance for both cricket enthusiasts and stakeholders alike. This paper presents a comprehensive study on IPL score prediction utilizing various machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Machines (SVM), XGBoost, Multiple Regression, Linear Regression, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest. Through meticulous data preprocessing, feature engineering, and model selection, we aimed to develop a robust predictive framework capable of forecasting team scores with high precision. Our experimentation involved the analysis of historical IPL match data encompassing diverse match and player statistics. Leveraging this data, we employed state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to train and evaluate the performance of each model. Notably, Multiple Regression emerged as the top-performing algorithm, achieving an impressive accuracy of 77.19% and a precision of 54.05% (within a threshold of +/- 10 runs). This research contributes to the advancement of sports analytics by demonstrating the efficacy of machine learning in predicting IPL team scores. The findings underscore the potential of advanced predictive modeling techniques to provide valuable insights for cricket enthusiasts, team management, and betting agencies. Additionally, this study serves as a benchmark for future research endeavors aimed at enhancing the accuracy and interpretability of IPL score prediction models.

Keywords: indian premier league (IPL), cricket, score prediction, machine learning, support vector machines (SVM), xgboost, multiple regression, linear regression, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest, sports analytics

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Authors: Jungbin Lim, Bohee Kang, Heelim Lee, Sunjin Kim, GeumHee Choi, Jae-Suk Jung, Suk Ji

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Nonsurgical periodontal therapies have, for several decades, been the basis of periodontal treatment concepts. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of non-surgical periodontal therapy according to the severity of periodontitis disease. Methods: Retrospective data of patients who visited Department of periodontics in Ajou University Medical Center from 2016 to 2022 were collected. Among the patients, those who took full mouth examination of clinical parameters and non-surgical periodontal therapy were chosen for this study. Selected patients were divided into initial, moderate, and severe periodontitis based on severity and complexity of management (2018 World Workshop EFP/AAP consensus). Recall visits with clinical periodontal examination were scheduled for 1,2,3 months or 1,3,6 months after the treatment. The results were evaluated by recordings of mean probing pocket depth (mean PD), mean clinical attachment levels (mean CAL), bleeding on probing (BOP%), mean gingival index (mean GI), mean regression, mean sulcus bleeding index (mean SBI), mean plaque scores (mean PI). All statistical analyses were performed with R software, version 4.3.0. A level of significance, P<0.05, was considered to be statistically significant. Results: A total of 92 patients were included in this study. 15 patients were diagnosed as initial periodontitis, 14 moderate periodontitis, and 63 severe periodontitis. The all parameters except for mean recession decreased over time in all groups. The amount of mean PD decreased were the greatest in severe periodontitis group followed by moderate and initial, which was found to be statistically significant. The changes of mean PD were 0.15±0.05 mm, 0.37±0.06 mm, and 1.01±0.07 mm (initial, moderate, and severe, respectively, P<0.001). When comparing before and after treatment, the reductions in BOP(%), mean GI, mean SBI, and mean PI were statistically significant. Conclusion: All patients who received non-surgical periodontal therapy showed periodontal healing in terms of improvements in clinical parameters, and it was greater in the severe group.

Keywords: periodontology, clinical periodontology, oral treatment, comprehensive preventive dentistry, non-surgical periodontal therapy

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Authors: David Percy

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Landslides are a geologic phenomenon that affects a large number of inhabited places and are constantly being monitored and studied for the prediction of future occurrences. Reconstructability analysis (RA) is a methodology for extracting informative models from large volumes of data that work exclusively with discrete data. While RA has been used in medical applications and social science extensively, we are introducing it to the spatial sciences through applications like landslide prediction. Since RA works exclusively with discrete data, such as soil classification or bedrock type, working with continuous data, such as porosity, requires that these data are binned for inclusion in the model. RA constructs models of the data which pick out the most informative elements, independent variables (IVs), from each layer that predict the dependent variable (DV), landslide occurrence. Each layer included in the model retains its classification data as a primary encoding of the data. Unlike other machine learning algorithms that force the data into one-hot encoding type of schemes, RA works directly with the data as it is encoded, with the exception of continuous data, which must be binned. The usual physical and derived layers are included in the model, and testing our results against other published methodologies, such as neural networks, yields accuracy that is similar but with the advantage of a completely transparent model. The results of an RA session with a data set are a report on every combination of variables and their probability of landslide events occurring. In this way, every combination of informative state combinations can be examined.

Keywords: reconstructability analysis, machine learning, landslides, raster analysis

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Authors: Karl Owen L. Suan, Juliet Marie S. Lambayan, Floramay P. Salo-Curato

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Objective: To predict the outcome among patients admitted with community-acquired pneumonia (ages 3 months to 59 months old) admitted in Visayas Community Medical Center using the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC). Design: A cross-sectional study design was used. Setting: The study was done in Visayas Community Medical Center, which is a private tertiary level in Cebu City from January-June 2013. Patients/Participants: A total of 72 patients were initially enrolled in the study. However, 1 patient transferred to another institution, thus 71 patients were included in this study. Within 24 hours from admission, patients were assigned a RISC score. Statistical Analysis: Cohen’s kappa coefficient was used for inter-rater agreement for categorical data. This study used frequency and percentage distribution for qualitative data. Mean, standard deviation and range were used for quantitative data. To determine the relationship of each RISC score parameter and the total RISC score with the outcome, a Mann Whitney U Test and 2x2 Fischer Exact test for testing associations were used. A p value less of than 0.05 alpha was considered significant. Results: There was a statistical significance between RISC score and clinical outcome. RISC score of greater than 4 was correlated with intubation and/or mortality. Conclusion: The RISC scoring system is a simple combination of clinical parameters and a reliable tool that will help stratify patients aged 3 months to 59 months in predicting clinical outcome.

Keywords: RISC, clinical outcome, community-acquired pneumonia, patients

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Authors: Srinaath Anbu Durai, Wang Zhaoxia

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Twitter sentiment has been used as a predictor to predict price values or trends in both the stock market and housing market. The pioneering works in this stream of research drew upon works in behavioural economics to show that sentiment or emotions impact economic decisions. Latest works in this stream focus on the algorithm used as opposed to the data used. A literature review of works in this stream through the lens of data used shows that there is a paucity of work that considers the impact of sentiments caused due to an external factor on either the stock or the housing market. This is despite an abundance of works in behavioural economics that show that sentiment or emotions caused due to an external factor impact economic decisions. To address this gap, this research studies the impact of Twitter sentiment pertaining to the Covid-19 pandemic on resale Housing Development Board (HDB) apartment prices in Singapore. It leverages SNSCRAPE to collect tweets pertaining to Covid-19 for sentiment analysis, lexicon based tools VADER and TextBlob are used for sentiment analysis, Granger Causality is used to examine the relationship between Covid-19 cases and the sentiment score, and neural networks are leveraged as prediction models. Twitter sentiment pertaining to Covid-19 as a predictor of HDB price in Singapore is studied in comparison with the traditional predictors of housing prices i.e., the structural and neighbourhood characteristics. The results indicate that using Twitter sentiment pertaining to Covid19 leads to better prediction than using only the traditional predictors and performs better as a predictor compared to two of the traditional predictors. Hence, Twitter sentiment pertaining to an external factor should be considered as important as traditional predictors. This paper demonstrates the real world economic applications of sentiment analysis of Twitter data.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, Covid-19, housing price prediction, tweets, social media, Singapore HDB, behavioral economics, neural networks

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Authors: Eimar Yadir Quintero Tapias

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Background: Science is not generally self-correcting; many clinical studies end with the same conclusion "more research is needed." This study hypothesizes that first, we need a better appraisal of the available (and unavailable) evidence instead of creating more of the same false inquiries. Methods: Systematic review of ClinicalTrials.gov study records using the following Boolean operators: (food OR nut OR milk OR egg OR shellfish OR wheat OR peanuts) AND (allergy OR allergies OR hypersensitivity OR hypersensitivities). Variables included the status of the study (e g., active and completed), availability of results, sponsor type, sample size, among others. To determine the rates of non-publication in journals indexed by PubMed, an advanced search query using the specific Number of Clinical Trials (e.g., NCT000001 OR NCT000002 OR...) was performed. As a prophylactic measure to prevent P-hacking, data analyses only included descriptive statistics and not inferential approaches. Results: A total of 2092 study records matched the search query described above (date: September 13, 2019). Most studies were interventional (n = 1770; 84.6%) and the remainder observational (n = 322; 15.4%). Universities, hospitals, and research centers sponsored over half of these investigations (n = 1208; 57.7%), 308 studies (14.7%) were industry-funded, and 147 received NIH grants; the remaining studies got mixed sponsorship. Regarding completed studies (n = 1156; 55.2%), 248 (21.5%) have results available at the registry site, and 417 (36.1%) matched NCT numbers of journal papers indexed by PubMed. Conclusions: The internal and external validity of human research is critical for the appraisal of medical evidence. It is imperative to analyze the entire dataset of clinical studies, preferably at a patient-level anonymized raw data, before rushing to conclusions with insufficient and inadequate information. Publication bias and non-registration of clinical trials limit the evaluation of the evidence concerning therapeutic interventions for food allergy, such as oral and sublingual immunotherapy, as well as any other medical condition. Over half of the food allergy human research remains unpublished.

Keywords: allergy, clinical trials, immunology, systematic reviews

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Authors: Sonia Alberti

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The Regional Conference to Restructure Psychiatric Care in Latin America, convened by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) in 1990, oriented the Brazilian Federal Act in 2001 that stipulated the psychiatric reform which requires deinstitutionalization and community-based treatment. Since then, the 15 years’ experience of different working teams in mental health led an academic working group – supervisors from personal practices, professors and researchers – to discuss certain clinical issues, as well as supervisions, and to organize colloquia in different cities as a methodology. These colloquia count on the participation of different working teams from the cities in which they are held, with team members with different levels of educational degrees and prior experiences, in order to increase dialogue right where it does not always appear to be possible. The principal aim of these colloquia is to gain interlocution between practitioners and academics. Working with the theory of case constructions, this methodology revealed itself helpful in unfolding new solutions. The paper also observes that there is not always harmony between what the psychiatric reform demands and clinical ethics.

Keywords: mental health, supervision, clinical cases, Brazilian experience

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), prediction, stock market, time series

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Authors: Aboussalih Amira, Zarza Tahar, Fedaoui Kamel, Hammoudi Saleh

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This work focuses on the simulation of the prediction of the behaviour of austenitic stainless steel (SS) 304L under complex loading in stress and imposed strain. The Chaboche model is a cable to describe the response of the material by the combination of two isotropic and nonlinear kinematic work hardening, the model is implemented in the ZébuLon computer code. First, we represent the evolution of the axial stress as a function of the plastic strain through hysteresis loops revealing a hardening behaviour caused by the increase in stress by stress in the direction of tension/compression. In a second step, the study of the ratcheting phenomenon takes a key place in this work by the appearance of the average stress. In addition to the solicitation of the material in the biaxial direction in traction / torsion.

Keywords: damage, 304L, Ratcheting, plastic strain

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Authors: Jon Cobb, Nasir

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Due to higher switching frequencies, the conducted Electromagnetic interference (EMI) noise is generated in a converter. It degrades the performance of a switching converter. Therefore, it is an essential requirement to mitigate EMI noise of high performance converter. Moreover, it includes two types of emission such as common mode (CM) and differential mode (DM) noise. CM noise is due to parasitic capacitance present in a converter and DM noise is caused by switching current. However, there is dire need to understand the main cause of EMI noise. Hence, we propose a novel method to predict conducted EMI noise of different converter topologies during early stage. This paper also presents the comparison of conducted electromagnetic interference (EMI) noise due to different SMPS topologies. We also make an attempt to develop an EMI noise model for a converter which allows detailed performance analysis. The proposed method is applied to different converter, as an example, and experimental results are verified the novel prediction technique.

Keywords: EMI, electromagnetic interference, SMPS, switch-mode power supply, common mode, CM, differential mode, DM, noise

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Authors: Shayla He

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Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

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Authors: Narottam Puri, Bishnu Panigrahi, Narayan Pendse

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Background: Clinical Outcomes are the globally agreed upon, evidence-based measurable changes in health or quality of life resulting from the patient care. Reporting of outcomes and its continuous monitoring provides an opportunity for both assessing and improving the quality of patient care. In 2012, International Consortium Of HealthCare Outcome Measurement (ICHOM) was founded which has defined global Standard Sets for measuring the outcome of various treatments. Method: Monitoring of Clinical Outcomes was identified as a pillar of Fortis’ core value of Patient Centricity. The project was started as an in-house developed Clinical Outcomes Reporting Portal by the Fortis Medical IT team. Standard sets of Outcome measurement developed by ICHOM were used. A pilot was run at Fortis Escorts Heart Institute from Aug’13 – Dec’13.Starting Jan’14, it was implemented across 11 hospitals of the group. The scope was hospital-wide and major clinical specialties: Cardiac Sciences, Orthopedics & Joint Replacement were covered. The internally developed portal had its limitations of report generation and also capturing of Patient related outcomes was restricted. A year later, the company provisioned for an ICHOM Certified Software product which could provide a platform for data capturing and reporting to ensure compliance with all ICHOM requirements. Post a year of the launch of the software; Fortis Healthcare has become the 1st Healthcare Provider in Asia to publish Clinical Outcomes data for the Coronary Artery Disease Standard Set comprising of Coronary Artery Bypass Graft and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions) in the public domain. (Jan 2016). Results: This project has helped in firmly establishing a culture of monitoring and reporting Clinical Outcomes across Fortis Hospitals. Given the diverse nature of the healthcare delivery model at Fortis Network, which comprises of hospitals of varying size and specialty-mix and practically covering the entire span of the country, standardization of data collection and reporting methodology is a huge achievement in itself. 95% case reporting was achieved with more than 90% data completion at the end of Phase 1 (March 2016). Post implementation the group now has one year of data from its own hospitals. This has helped identify the gaps and plan towards ways to bridge them and also establish internal benchmarks for continual improvement. Besides the value created for the group includes: 1. Entire Fortis community has been sensitized on the importance of Clinical Outcomes monitoring for patient centric care. Initial skepticism and cynicism has been countered by effective stakeholder engagement and automation of processes. 2. Measuring quality is the first step in improving quality. Data analysis has helped compare clinical results with best-in-class hospitals and identify improvement opportunities. 3. Clinical fraternity is extremely pleased to be part of this initiative and has taken ownership of the project. Conclusion: Fortis Healthcare is the pioneer in the monitoring of Clinical Outcomes. Implementation of ICHOM standards has helped Fortis Clinical Excellence Program in improving patient engagement and strengthening its commitment to its core value of Patient Centricity. Validation and certification of the Clinical Outcomes data by an ICHOM Certified Supplier adds confidence to its claim of being leaders in this space.

Keywords: clinical outcomes, healthcare delivery, patient centricity, ICHOM

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Osama Moustafa Zayed

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Aim of the work: To evaluate the effectiveness of venous glucose, levels of serum lactate and base deficit in polytraumatized patients as simple parameters to predict the mortality in these patients. Compared to the predictive value of Trauma and injury severity (TRISS) and Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV). Introduction: Trauma is a serious global health problem, accounting for approximately one in 10 deaths worldwide. Trauma accounts for 5 million deaths per year. Prediction of mortality in trauma patients is an important part of trauma care. Several trauma scores have been devised to predict injury severity and risk of mortality. The trauma and injury severity score (TRISS) was most common used. Regardless of the accuracy of trauma scores, is based on an anatomical description of every injury and cannot be assigned to the patients until a full diagnostic procedure has been performed. So we hypothesized that alterations in admission glucose, lactate levels and base deficit would be an early and easy rapid predictor of mortality. Patient and Method: a comparative cross-sectional study. 282 Polytraumatized patients attended to the Emergency Department(ED) of the Suez Canal university Hospital constituted. The period from 1/1/2012 to 1/4/2013 was included. Results: We found that the best cut off value of TRISS probability of survival score for prediction of mortality among poly-traumatized patients is = 90, with 77% sensitivity and 89% specificity using area under the ROC curve (0.89) at (95%CI). APACHE IV demonstrated 67% sensitivity and 95% specificity at 95% CI at cut off point 99. The best cutoff value of Random Blood Sugar (RBS) for prediction of mortality was>140 mg/dl, with 89%, sensitivity, 49% specificity. The best cut off value of base deficit for prediction of mortality was less than -5.6 with 64% sensitivity, 93% specificity. The best cutoff point of lactate for prediction of mortality was > 2.6 mmol/L with 92%, sensitivity, 42% specificity. Conclusion: According to our results from all evaluated predictors of mortality (laboratory and scores) and mortality based on the estimated cutoff values using ROC curves analysis, the highest risk of mortality was found using a cutoff value of 90 in TRISS score while with laboratory parameters the highest risk of mortality was with serum lactate > 2.6 . Although that all of the three parameter are accurate in predicting mortality in poly-traumatized patients and near with each other, as in serum lactate the area under the curve 0.82, in BD 0.79 and 0.77 in RBS.

Keywords: APACHE IV, emergency department, polytraumatized patients, serum lactate

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Caroline E. Mendes, Alberto C. Badino

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Pneumatic reactors have been widely employed in various sectors of the chemical industry, especially where are required high heat and mass transfer rates. This study aimed to obtain correlations that allow the prediction of gas hold-up (Ԑ) and volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (kLa), and compare these values, for three models of pneumatic reactors on two scales utilizing Newtonian fluids. Values of kLa were obtained using the dynamic pressure-step method, while  was used for a new proposed measure. Comparing the three models of reactors studied, it was observed that the mass transfer was superior to draft-tube airlift, reaching  of 0.173 and kLa of 0.00904s-1. All correlations showed good fit to the experimental data (R2≥94%), and comparisons with correlations from the literature demonstrate the need for further similar studies due to shortage of data available, mainly for airlift reactors and high viscosity fluids.

Keywords: bubble column, internal loop airlift, gas hold-up, kLa

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Sadeq Alyaari, Muhammad Alkhunayn, Montaha Al Yaari, Ayman Al Yaari, Ayah Al Yaari, Adham Al Yaari, Sajedah Al Yaari, Fatehi Eissa

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Introduction. The purpose of this Systematic Literature Review and Meta-analysis ((SLR & Meta-analysis) was to examine the differences between Asperger syndrome (AS) individuals and typically developing and achieving individuals (TD) regarding language competence and how these differences related to AS individuals’ age and the significance such differences add to our knowledge of understanding their language performance as issues that are still underdiagnosed and ill-treated entities. Methods. The study followed SLR & Meta-analysis protocol and was armed with data of 456 AS subjects and controls (231 and 225, respectively) abstracted from 14 studies that have been collected from different electronic bibliographic databases including web of science, Scopus, EMBASE, Cochrane library, PubMed, PsycInfo and google scholar along with unpublished literature. Results. Outlined results show deterioration in language competence of AS subjects in comparison to TD controls. Such deterioration impairs conversational implicature more than it does conventional maxims of AS individuals’ pragmatic language and has no relationship with their age. Results also show that the difference in intelligence features of the mental reality in the language competence becomes smaller with increasing age and that the difference in representational content features becomes larger. Conclusions. These findings help experts in the field not only predict pragmatic language impairments in AS individuals but also enable AS individuals themselves to decode and/or interpret speech inputs; therefore, perceive the world around them and interact with their community members. Outcomes should be considered to lay out a path for further exploration of genetics, etiology, and response to treatment of all these premises that are currently unsearched in AS individuals.

Keywords: pragmatic language characteristics, language competence, mental faculty, mental reality, features, language performance, pragmatics, conventional maxims

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Authors: Gonzalez Carlos, Martinez Fransisco

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The creation of a seismic prediction model that considers all the regional variations and perfectly adjusts its results to the response spectra is very complicated. To achieve statistically acceptable results, it is necessary to process a sufficiently robust data set, and even if high efficiencies are achieved, this model will only work properly in this region. However, when using it in other regions, differences are found due to different parameters that have not been calibrated to other regions, such as the site effect. The fact that impedance contrasts, as well as other factors belonging to the site, have a great influence on the local response is well known, which is why this work, using the residual method, is intended to establish a regional calibration of the corresponding parameters site effect for the Spain region in the global GMPM BSSA 14.

Keywords: GMPM, seismic prediction equations, residual method, response spectra, impedance contrast

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Authors: T. S. Sowmya Bhaskaran, Shekhar Seshadri

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This study aims to study the clinical features of with a history of Child Sexual Abuse (CSA). A chart review of 40 children (<16 years) with history of CSA evaluated at the Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry of NIMHANS during a two year period was performed. Results:The most common form of abuse was contact penetrative abuse (65%) followed by non-contact penetrative abuse (32.5%). 75% (N=30) had a psychiatric diagnosis at baseline. 50% of these children had one or more psychiatric comorbidities. Anxiety disorder was the most common diagnosis (27.5%) which included PTSD (11%) followed by Depressive disorder (25.2%). Children abused by multiple perpetrators were found to be more likely to have depression, to having a comorbid psychiatric disorder and more prone to exhibit sexualized behaviour. Children who also experienced physical violence at home were more likely to develop psychiatric illness following child sexual abuse. Psychiatric morbidity is high in clinic population of children with history of CSA. It is important to increase the awareness regarding the consequences of CSA in order to increase help seeking.

Keywords: child sexual abuse, India, tertiary care centre, clinical characteristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 457