Search results for: Risk Analysis

Authors: A. Al-Wandi, A. Al-Ali, R. Dali, Y. Al-Karaghouli

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Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become an alarming health problem across the globe. The risk of developing those diseases begins in childhood and develops gradually under the influence of risk factors including obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, cigarette smoking and decreased physical activity. Therefore, this study aims to determine the level of knowledge, attitudes, and practices of the risk factors of lifestyle induced chronic diseases (non-communicable diseases) among secondary school students in Sharjah city. Methods: Five hundred and ninety-one school children, from grades 10 to 12, formed the study sample, using the multistage stratified cluster sampling method. Four governmental schools were chosen, for each gender. Data was collected through a pretested, close-ended questionnaire consisting of five sections; demographics, physical activity, diet, smoking and sleeping patterns. Frequencies and descriptive statistics were used to analyze data through SPSS 23. Results: The data showed 64.6% of students had low knowledge of risk factors of non-communicable diseases. Concerning physical activity, 58.2 % were physically inactive and females being less active than males. More than 2/3 of students didn’t fulfill the recommended daily intake of fruits and vegetables (75.9%). 8% reported to be smokers with cigarettes being the most encountered tobacco product. Conclusion: Our study has demonstrated a low level of knowledge and practices yet, positive attitudes towards risk factors of chronic diseases. We recommend implementation of thorough awareness campaigns through public health education about the risk factors of non-communicable diseases.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, physical activity, diet, knowledge, attitudes, practices, smoking

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Authors: Azizah Nurdin, Trika Irianta, Mardiah Tahir, Maisuri T. Chalid

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Background: Studies of anal incontinence in the general population are rare however its financial healthcare cost is significant. Women attended Hasanuddin University Teaching Hospital and its networking in Makassar, Indonesia was surveyed between February to April 2015 about their obstetrical and gynecological history. Aims: To establish obstetrical risk factor of anal incontinence among women in Makassar. Methods: In a cross sectional face to face interview study, 135 women aged 30 years or more were selected randomly. Participants were asked to complete an anal incontinence questionnaire. Results: From a total sample of 135 respondents, 42,2 % reported has flatulence incontinence. Parity, history of anal sphincter laceration, history of having large baby, history of assisted vaginal delivery were shown have no significant association with anal incontinence, while history of episiotomy was shown have a significant association with anal incontinence (p value < 0.05). The risk of flatulence incontinence was higher among women with history of episiotomy (OR : 2,85, 95 % CI = 1,58- 5,13) Conclusions: This study has confirmed that fecal incontinence is a fairly common symptom. Flatulence incontinence is the most frequent even. An obstetrical factor like episiotomy is one of risk factor that could be avoided in order to prevent anal incontinence.

Keywords: anal incontinence, flatulence incontinence, obstetrical risk factor, women

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Authors: Sandipika Gupta

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Objective: Due to admirably low 30-day mortality rates for paediatric cardiac surgery, it is now pertinent to turn towards more intermediate-length outcomes such as morbidities closely associated with these surgeries. One such morbidity, major adverse events (MAE) comprises a group of adverse outcomes associated with paediatric cardiac surgery (e.g. cardiac arrest, major haemorrhage). Methods: This is a retrospective study that analysed the incidence and impact of MAE which was the primary outcome in the UK population. The data was collected in 5 centres between October 2015 and June 2017, amassing 3090 surgical episodes. The incidence and risk factors for MAE, were assessed through descriptive statistical analyses and multivariate logistic regression. The secondary outcomes of life status at 6 months and the length of hospital stay were also evaluated to understand the impact of MAE on patients. Results: Out of 3090 episodes, 134 (4.3%) had a postoperative MAE. The majority of the episodes were in: neonates (47%, P<0.001), high-risk cardiac diagnosis groups (20.1%, P<0.001), episodes with longer 5mes on the bypass (72.4%, P<0.001) and urgent surgeries (57.9%, P<0.001). Episodes reporting MAE also reported longer lengths of stay in hospital (29 days vs 9 days, P<0.001). Furthermore, patients experiencing MAE were at a higher risk of mortality at the 6-month life status check (mortality rates: 29.2% vs 2%, P<0.001).Conclusions: Key risk factors were identified. An important negative impact of MAE was found for patients. The identified risk factors could be used to profile and flag at-risk patients. Monitoring of MAE rates and closer investigation into the care pathway before and after individual MAEs in children’s heart units may lead to a reduction in these terrible events.

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Authors: Milton Montejano Castillo, Tarsicio Pastrana Salcedo

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Based on the hypothesis that disaster risk is constructed socially and historically, this article shows the importance of keeping alive the historical memory of disaster by means of architectural and urban heritage conservation. This is illustrated with three examples of Latin American World Heritage cities where disasters like floods and earthquakes have shaped urban form. Therefore, the study of urban form or ‘Urban Morphology’ is proposed as a tool to understand and analyze urban transformations with the documentation of the occurrence of disasters. Lessons learned from such cities may be useful to reduce disasters risk in contemporary built environments.

Keywords: conservation, disaster risk reduction, urban morphology, World Heritage

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Authors: Kisik Song, Sungjoo Lee

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With the growing importance of intangible assets recently, the impact of patent infringement on the business of a company has become more evident. Accordingly, it is essential for firms to estimate the risk of patent infringement risk before developing a technology and create new technology ideas to avoid the risk. Recognizing the needs, several attempts have been made to help develop new technology opportunities and most of them have focused on identifying emerging vacant technologies from patent analysis. In these studies, the IPC (International Patent Classification) system or keywords from text-mining application to patent documents was generally used to define vacant technologies. Unlike those studies, this study adopted F-term, which classifies patent documents according to the technical features of the inventions described in them. Since the technical features are analyzed by various perspectives by F-term, F-term provides more detailed information about technologies compared to IPC while more systematic information compared to keywords. Therefore, if well utilized, it can be a useful guideline to create a new technology idea. Recognizing the potential of F-term, this paper aims to suggest a novel approach to developing new technology ideas to avoid patent infringement based on F-term. For this purpose, we firstly collected data about F-term and then applied text-mining to the descriptions about classification criteria and attributes. From the text-mining results, we could identify other technologies with similar technical features of the existing one, the patented technology. Finally, we compare the technologies and extract the technical features that are commonly used in other technologies but have not been used in the existing one. These features are presented in terms of “purpose”, “function”, “structure”, “material”, “method”, “processing and operation procedure” and “control means” and so are useful for creating new technology ideas that help avoid infringing patent rights of other companies. Theoretically, this is one of the earliest attempts to adopt F-term to patent analysis; the proposed methodology can show how to best take advantage of F-term with the wealth of technical information. In practice, the proposed methodology can be valuable in the ideation process for successful product and service innovation without infringing the patents of other companies.

Keywords: patent infringement, new technology ideas, patent analysis, F-term

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Authors: Ratna Kuswardani

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This paper aims to study the impact of recent Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on 6 selected emerging Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, and South Korea). We first figure out the contagion of GFC from the US and Europe to the selected emerging Asian countries by studying the tail dependence of market stock returns between those countries. We apply the concept of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the dependence between multiple returns series of variables under examination. We explore the factors causing the contagion between the regions. We find dependencies between markets that are influenced by their size, especially for large markets in emerging Asian countries that tend to have a higher dependency to the market in the more advanced country such as the U.S. and some countries in Europe. The results also suggest that the dependencies between market returns and bank stock returns in the same region tend to be higher than dependencies between these returns across two different regions. We extend our analysis by studying the impact of GFC on the systemic in the banking system. We also find that larger institution has more dependencies with the market stock, suggesting that larger size bank can cause disruption in the market. Further, the higher probability of extreme loss can be seen during the crisis period, which is shown by the non-linear dependency between the pre-crisis and the post-crisis period. Finally, our analysis suggests that systemic risk appears in the domestic banking systems in emerging Asia, as shown by the extreme dependencies within banks in the system. Overall, our results provide caution to policy makers and investors alike on the possible contagion of the impact of global financial crisis across different markets.

Keywords: contagion, extreme value theory, global financial crisis, systemic risk

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Authors: Johnson Adafin, James O. B. Rotimi, Suzanne Wilkinson, Abimbola O. Windapo

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An aspect of client expenditure management that requires attention is the level of accuracy achievable in design-stage elemental cost planning. This has been a major concern for construction clients and practitioners in New Zealand (NZ). Pre-tender estimating inaccuracies are significantly influenced by the level of risk information available to estimators. Proper cost planning activities should ensure the production of a project’s likely construction costs (initial and final), and subsequent cost control activities should prevent unpleasant consequences of cost overruns, disputes and project abandonment. If risks were properly identified and priced at the design stage, observed variance between design-stage elemental cost plans (ECPs) and final tender sums (FTS) (initial contract sums) could be reduced. This study investigates the variations between design-stage ECPs and FTS of construction projects, with a view to identifying risk factors that are responsible for the observed variance. Data were sourced through interviews, and risk factors were identified by using thematic analysis. Access was obtained to project files from the records of study participants (consultant quantity surveyors), and document analysis was employed in complementing the responses from the interviews. Study findings revealed the discrepancies between ECPs and FTS in the region of -14% and +16%. It is opined in this study that the identified risk factors were responsible for the variability observed. The values obtained from the analysis would enable greater accuracy in the forecast of FTS by Quantity Surveyors. Further, whilst inherent risks in construction project developments are observed globally, these findings have important ramifications for construction projects by expanding existing knowledge on what is needed for reasonable budgetary performance and successful delivery of construction projects. The findings contribute significantly to the study by providing quantitative confirmation to justify the theoretical conclusions generated in the literature from around the world. This therefore adds to and consolidates existing knowledge.

Keywords: accuracy, design-stage, elemental cost plan, final tender sum

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

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In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Marcov chain, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, strong stability

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Authors: Malvina Hoxha, Valerie Capra, Carola Buccellati, Angelo Sala, Clara Cena, Roberta Fruttero, Massimo Bertinaria, G. Enrico Rovati

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Today COXIBs are used in the treatment of arthritis and many other painful conditions in selected patients with high gastrointestinal risk and low CV risk. Previously we found a new mechanism of action of a traditional NSAID (diclofenac) and a COXIB (lumiracoxib) that possess weak competitive antagonism at the TP receptor. We hypothesize that modifying the structure of a known specific inhibitor of cyclooxygenase-2 (COXIB), so that it becomes also a more potent thromboxane antagonist will preserve the anti-inflammatory and gastrointestinal safety typical of COXIBs and prevent the cardiovascular risk associated with long term therapy.

Keywords: cyclooxygenase, inflammation, lumiracoxib, thromboxane A2

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Authors: Giriraj Achari, Malay Bhattacharyya

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In this paper, the effectiveness of Copula Markov Switching Multifractal (MSM) models at forecasting Value-at-Risk of a two-stock portfolio is studied. The innovations are allowed to be drawn from distributions that can capture skewness and leptokurtosis, which are well documented empirical characteristics observed in financial returns. The candidate distributions considered for this purpose are Johnson-SU, Pearson Type-IV and α-Stable distributions. The two univariate marginal distributions are combined using the Student-t copula. The estimation of all parameters is performed by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Finally, the models are compared in terms of accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts using tests of unconditional coverage and independence. It is found that Copula-MSM-models with leptokurtic innovation distributions perform slightly better than Copula-MSM model with Normal innovations. Copula-MSM models, in general, produce better VaR forecasts as compared to traditional methods like Historical Simulation method, Variance-Covariance approach and Copula-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (Copula-GARCH) models.

Keywords: Copula, Markov Switching, multifractal, value-at-risk

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Authors: Sahar Shams

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Coeliac disease (CD) is a widely reported disease particularly in countries with predominant Caucasian populations. It presents with many signs and symptoms including iron deficiency (ID) and iron deficiency anaemia/anaemia (IDA/A). The exact association between ID, IDA/A and CD and how accurate these signs are in diagnosing CD is not fully known. This systematic review was conducted to investigate the accuracy of both ID & IDA/A as a diagnostic indicator for CD and whether it warrants point of care testing. A systematic review was performed looking at studies published in MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. QUADAS-2 tool was used to assess risk of bias in each study. ROC curve and forest plots were generated as part of the meta-analysis after data extraction. 16 studies were identified in total, 13 of which were IDA/A studies and 3 ID studies. The prevalence of CD regardless of diagnostic indicator was assumed as 1%. The QUADAS-2 tool indicated most of studies as having high risk of bias. The PPV for CD was higher in those with ID than for those with IDA/A. Meta-analysis showed the overall odds of having CD is 5 times higher in individuals with ID & IDA/A. The ROC curve showed that there is definitely an association between both diagnostic indicators and CD, the association is not a particularly strong one due to great heterogeneity between studies. Whilst an association between IDA/A & ID and coeliac disease was evident, the results were not deemed significant enough to prompt coeliac disease testing in those with IDA/A & ID.

Keywords: anemia, iron deficiency anemia, coeliac disease, point of care testing

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Authors: Nurul Noraziemah Mohd Pauzi, Muhammad Fauzi Mohd Zain

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The rapid advance in the electronic industry has led to the increase amount of the waste cathode ray tube (CRT) devices. The management of CRT waste upon disposal haves become a major issue of environmental concern as it contains toxic elements (i.e. lead, barium, zinc, etc.) which has a risk of leaching if it is not managed appropriately. Past studies have reported regarding the possible use of CRT glass as a part of aggregate in concrete production. However, incorporating waste CRT glass may present an environmental risk via leachability of toxic elements. Accordingly, the preventive measures for reducing the risk was proposed. The current work presented the experimental results regarding potential leaching of toxic elements from four types of concrete mixed, each compromising waste CRT glass as coarse aggregate with different shape and properties. Concentrations of detected elements are measure in the leachates by using atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS). Results indicate that the concentration of detected elements were found to be below applicable risk, despite the higher content of toxic elements in CRT glass. Therefore, the used of waste CRT glass as coarse aggregate in hardened concrete does not pose any risk of leachate of heavy metals to the environment.

Keywords: recycled CRT glass, coarse aggregate, physical properties, leaching, toxic elements

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Authors: Aida Alemany, Laura Ballester, Ana González-Urteaga

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From 2007 subprime crisis to the recent Eurozone debt crisis the European banking industry has experienced a terrible financial instability situation with increasing levels of CDS spreads (used as a proxy of credit risk). This paper investigates whether volatility transmission channels in European banking markets have changed after three significant crises’ events during the period January 2006 to March 2013. The global financial crisis is characterized by a unidirectional volatility shocks spillovers effect in credit risk from inside to outside the Eurozone. By contrast, the Eurozone debt crisis is revealed to be local in nature with the euro as the key element suggesting a market fragmentation between distressed peripheral and non-distressed core Eurozone countries, whereas retaining the local currency have acted as a firewall. With these findings we are able to shed light on the impact of the different crises on the European banking credit risk dynamics.

Keywords: CDS spreads, credit risk, volatility spillovers, financial crisis

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Authors: Rino Gubiani, Gianfranco Pergher

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The work focused on the statistical analysis of accidents in the forestry sector (2000-2020) in Friuli-Venezia Giulia region, located in the North-East of Italy. The aim of the work was to analyse the evolution of the casualties throughout time and to evaluate possible improvements in the sector. It was shown that even nowadays the rate of accidents in forestry work is higher compared with all the other sectors, including agriculture; moreover, it was highlighted that some accidents remained present throughout the whole analysed range, such as slipping on the soil, being hit by trees and falling down from the plants. The results showed that an increase in forestry exploitation could even increase the total number of accidents, if advanced technological machines, such as cable cranes, would not implemented, given the fact that there is also a significant number of old people (above 50 years old) working in the sector.

Keywords: safety, forestry work, accidents, risk analysis, casualties, statistical analysis

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Authors: Kaisy Xinhong Ye, Su Lin Lim, Jialiang Li, Lei Feng

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background: Multiple healthful dietary patterns have been linked with dementia, but limited studies have looked at the role of diet in cognitive health in Asians whose eating habits are very different from their counterparts in the west. This study aimed to derive a dietary pattern that is associated with the risk of cognitive impairment (CI) in the Singaporean population. Method: The analysis was based on 719 community older adults aged 60 and above. Dietary intake was measured using a validated semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Reduced rank regression (RRR) was used to extract dietary pattern from 45 food groups, specifying sugar, dietary fiber, vitamin A, calcium, and the ratio of polyunsaturated fat to saturated fat intake (P:S ratio) as response variables. The RRR-derived dietary patterns were subsequently investigated using multivariate logistic regression models to look for associations with the risk of CI. Results: A dietary pattern characterized by greater intakes of green leafy vegetables, red-orange vegetables, wholegrains, tofu, nuts, and lower intakes of biscuits, pastries, local sweets, coffee, poultry with skin, sugar added to beverages, malt beverages, roti, butter, and fast food was associated with reduced risk of CI [multivariable-adjusted OR comparing extreme quintiles, 0.29 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.77); P-trend =0.03]. This pattern was positively correlated with P:S ratio, vitamin A, and dietary fiber and negatively correlated with sugar. Conclusion: A dietary pattern providing high P:S ratio, vitamin A and dietary fiber, and a low level of sugar may reduce the risk of cognitive impairment in old age. The findings have significance in guiding local Singaporeans to dementia prevention through food-based dietary approaches.

Keywords: dementia, cognitive impairment, diet, nutrient, elderly

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Authors: Singh Baljinder, Sharma Navneet

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Microalbuminuria is the earliest detectable marker of diabetic nephropathy. We planned to evaluate the prevalence of microalbuminuria in type 1 diabetics and correlate with various risk factor. We randomly selected 100 type 1 diabetic patients after inclusion and exclusion criteria from DCRC, S. P. Medical College, Bikaner. Clinical examinations for anthropometeric parameters, hypertension, retinopathy, glycaemic status, lipid profile were done and microalbuminuria was estimated by micral test. Microalbuminuria was seen in 38% patients. The mean urinary albumin concentration was 96.61 mg/l in microalbuminuria positive cases, 134 mg/L in hypertensive patients while 74.5 mg/L in normal patients. Mean diabetic duration was 6.43 years in microalbuminurics. Albumin excretion increased significantly with age at onset of 10-18 years and declined thereafter. Microalbuminuria cases exhibited mean cholesterol 181.63 mg%, TG 130.94 mg%, LDL 109.87 mg%, HDL 57.5 mg% and VLDL 30.64 mg%. Mean urinary albumin concentration in patients with retinopathy was 160.52 mg/L while 78.66 mg/L without retinopathy. In multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis, a strong positive association was seen between microalbuminuria and hypertension (OR=5.087, CI=2.1319-12.101), fasting blood sugar (OR=3. 491, CI=1.138-10.70), duration of diabetes (OR=3.41, CI=1.360-8.55) and HbA1c (OR=2.381, CI-=1.1-5.64). The present study indicates that microalbuminuria is a common complication of type 1 diabetes mellitus and can be prevented by careful management of risk factors.

Keywords: type 1 diabetes, microalbuminuria, diabetic nephropathy, retinopathy, hypertension

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Authors: Abimbola Motunrayo Enitan, Ibironke Titilayo Enitan, John Odiyo

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The study assessed quality of surface water across Ndawuse River Phase 1, District of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Nigeria based on physico-chemical variables that are linked to agrochemical and eutrophication, as well as heavy metals concentrations. In total, sixteen surface water samples were obtained from five locations along the river. The results were compared with the standard limits set by both World Health Organization and Federal Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water. The results obtained indicated that BOD5, turbidity, 0.014-3.511 mg Fe/L and 0.078-0.14 mg Cr/L were all above the standard limits. The results further showed that the quality of surface water is being significantly affected by human activities around the Ndawuse River which could pose an adverse health risk to several communities that rely on these receiving water bodies primarily as their source of water. Therefore, there is a need for strict enforcement of environmental laws considering the physico-chemical analysis.

Keywords: Abuja, heavy metals, human exposure risk, Ndawuse River, Nigeria, surface water

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Authors: Dina Farran, Mark Ashworth, Fiona Gaughran

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Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia, is associated with an increased risk of stroke, contributing to heart failure and death. In this project, we aim to improve patient safety by screening for stroke risk among people with AF and co-morbid mental illness. To do so, we started by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis on prevalence, management, and outcomes of AF in people with Serious Mental Illness (SMI) versus the general population. We then evaluated oral anticoagulation (OAC) prescription trends in people with AF and co-morbid SMI in King’s College Hospital. We also evaluated the association between mental illness severity and OAC prescription in eligible patients in South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Foundation Trust. Next, we implemented an electronic clinical decision support system (eCDSS) consisting of a visual prompt on patient electronic Personal Health Records to screen for AF-related stroke risk in three Mental Health of Older Adults wards at SLaM. Finally, we assessed the feasibility and acceptability of the eCDSS by qualitatively investigating clinicians’ perspectives of the potential usefulness of the eCDSS (pre-intervention) and their experiences and their views regarding its impact on clinicians and patients (post-intervention). The systematic review showed that people with SMI had low reported rates of AF. AF patients with SMI were less likely to receive OAC than the general population. When receiving warfarin, people with SMI, particularly bipolar disorder, experienced poor anticoagulation control compared to the general population. Meta-analysis showed that SMI was not significantly associated with an increased risk of stroke or major bleeding when adjusting for underlying risk factors. The main findings of the first observational study were that among AF patients having a high stroke risk, those with co-morbid SMI were less likely than non-SMI to be prescribed any OAC, particularly warfarin. After 2019, there was no significant difference between the two groups. In the second observational study, patients with AF and co-morbid SMI were less likely to be prescribed any OAC compared to those with dementia, substance use disorders, or common mental disorders, adjusting for age, sex, stroke, and bleeding risk scores. Among AF patients with co-morbid SMI, warfarin was less likely to be prescribed to those having alcohol or substance dependency, serious self-injury, hallucinations or delusions, and activities of daily living impairment. In the intervention, clinicians were asked to confirm the presence of AF, clinically assess stroke and bleeding risks, record risk scores in clinical notes, and refer patients at high risk of stroke to OAC clinics. Clinicians reported many potential benefits for the eCDSS, including improving clinical effectiveness, better identification of patients at risk, safer and more comprehensive care, consistency in decision making and saving time. Identified potential risks included rigidity in decision-making, overreliance, reduced critical thinking, false positive recommendations, annoyance, and increased workload. This study presents a unique opportunity to quantify AF patients with mental illness who are at high risk of severe outcomes using electronic health records. This has the potential to improve health outcomes and, therefore patients' quality of life.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, stroke, mental health conditions, electronic clinical decision support systems

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Authors: Ibrahim Mahamid, A. Al-Ghonamy, M. Aichouni

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This study aims at identifying the risk matrix for delay causes in construction projects in Saudi Arabia from consultants’ viewpoint. A questionnaire survey was undertaken of 51 consultants working on construction projects in the Northern Province of Saudi Arabia. 35 delay causes were identified through a literature review. The study concluded that the top delay causes in construction projects in Saudi Arabia from consultants’ perspective are: bid award for lowest price, changes in material types and specifications during construction, contract management, duration of contract period, fluctuation of prices of materials, frequent changes in design, improper planning, inflationary pressure, lack of adequate manpower, long period of design and time of implementation, payments delay, poor labor productivity, and rework.

Keywords: delays, construction, consultants, contributors, risk map

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Authors: Samaneh Abolli, Mahmood Alimohammadi

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The survey analyzed 71 bottled water brands in Tehran, Iran, examining 10 physicochemical parameters and 16 heavy metals. The water quality index (WQI) approach was used to assess water quality, and methods such as carcinogen risk (CR) and hazard index (HI) were employed to evaluate health risks. The results indicated that the bottled water had good quality overall, but some brands were of poor or very poor quality. The study also revealed significant human health risks, especially for children, due to the presence of minerals and heavy metals in bottled water. Correlation analyses and risk assessments for various substances were conducted, providing valuable insights into the potential health impacts of the analyzed bottled water.

Keywords: bottled wate, rwater quality index, health risk assessment, contamination degree, heavy metal evaluation index

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Authors: R. Govender, T. C. Katsande, E. Madoroba, N. M. Thiebaut, D. Naidoo

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South African control over meat safety is managed by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF). Veterinary services department in each of the nine provinces in the country is tasked with overseeing the farm and abattoir segments of the meat supply chain. Abattoirs are privately owned. The number of abattoirs over the years has increased. This increase has placed constraints on government resources required to monitor these abattoirs. This paper presents empirical research results on the hygienic processing of meat in high and low throughout abattoirs. This paper presents a case for the adoption of risk-based regulation as a method of government control over hygiene and safe meat processing at abattoirs in South Africa. Recommendations are made to the DAFF regarding policy considerations on risk-based regulation as a model of control in South Africa.

Keywords: risk-based regulation, abattoir, food control, meat safety

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Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor Sookia

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In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that 'fat-tailedness' alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: extreme value theory, financial crisis 2008, value at risk, frontier markets

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Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá

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Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.

Keywords: risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk

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Authors: Tya M. Arthur

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Purpose: BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, and People of Color) adolescents face racism and discrimination at a young age. These early experiences have short- and long-term impacts on their health and overall well-being. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationships between perceived racial discrimination at school and health risk behaviors and experiences of BIPOC adolescents. Methods: Data from the 2021 Adolescent Behaviors and Experiences Survey (ABES) were analyzed. All demographic data were summarized using frequencies and chi-squared tests. A univariate and multivariate logistic regression model was used to test the relationship between perceived racial discrimination and selected health risk factors. All analyses were conducted using STATA SE 18. Results: A total of 42.2% of the BIPOC adolescents in the study indicated being treated unfairly at school due to their race. The majority of those who reported being discriminated against were Black/African American or Multiple Race-Hispanic. Asian adolescents were almost 5 times more likely to face racial discrimination at school compared to their American Indian/Alaska Native counterparts (OR = 4.86, 95% CI [2.69-8.77], p < 0.001). Other risk predictors of racial discrimination included being female (OR = 1.38, 95% CI [1.13-1.68], p = 0.002) and feeling disconnected at school (OR = 1.76, 95% CI [1.30-2.38], p < 0.001). After adjustment for health risk behaviors and experiences, BIPOC adolescents were still more likely to face racial discrimination with even higher odds. Conclusions: The results of this study highlight the depth of racial discrimination faced by BIPOC adolescents at school. Greater attention should be placed on racial discrimination as a social determinant of health and a public health crisis.

Keywords: racial discrimination, adolescents, heath risk factors, BIPOC

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Authors: Athdath Waduge Susantha Janaka Kumara, Xiefei Zhi, Zin Mie Mie Sein

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Understanding the air temperature variability is crucially important for disaster risk reduction and management. In this study, we used 15 synoptic meteorological stations to assess the spatiotemporal variability of air temperature over Sri Lanka during 1972–2021. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF), Principal component analysis (PCA), Mann-Kendall test, power spectrum analysis and correlation coefficient analysis were used to investigate the long-term trends of air temperature and their possible relation to sea surface temperature (SST) over the region. The results indicate that an increasing trend in air temperature was observed with the abrupt climate change noted in the year 1994. The spatial distribution of EOF1 (63.5%) shows the positive and negative loading dipole patterns from south to northeast, while EOF2 (23.4%) explains warmer (colder) in some parts of central (south and east) areas. The power spectrum of PC1 (PC2) indicates that there is a significant period of 3-4 years (quasi-2 years). Moreover, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) provides a strong positive correlation with the air temperature of Sri Lanka, while the EL Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) presents a weak negative correlation. Therefore, IOD events led to higher temperatures in the region. This study’s findings can help disaster risk reduction and management in the country.

Keywords: air temperature, interannaul variability, ENSO, IOD

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Authors: Adam M. Yates, Julie E. Byles

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Hypertension has been identified as a prominent co-morbidity of obesity. To improve clinical intervention of hypertension, it is critical to identify metrics that most accurately reflect risk for increased morbidity. Two of the most relevant and accurate measures for increased risk of hypertension due to excess adipose tissue are Body Mass Index (BMI) and Waist-Height Ratio (WHtR). Previous research has examined these measures in cross-national and cross-ethnic studies, but has most often relied on secondary means such as meta-analysis to identify and evaluate the efficacy of individual body mass measures. In this study, we instead use cross-sectional analysis to assess the cross-ethnic discriminative power of BMI and WHtR to predict risk of hypertension. Using the WHO SAGE survey, which collected anthropometric and biometric data from respondents in six middle-income countries (China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa), we implement logistic regression to examine the discriminative power of measured BMI and WHtR with a known population of hypertensive and non-hypertensive respondents. We control for gender and age to identify whether optimum cut-off points that are adequately sensitive as tests for risk of hypertension may be different between groups. We report results for OR, RR, and ROC curves for each of the six SAGE countries. As seen in existing literature, results demonstrate that both WHtR and BMI are significant predictors of hypertension (p < .01). For these six countries, we find that cut-off points for WHtR may be dependent upon gender, age and ethnicity. While an optimum omnibus cut-point for WHtR may be 0.55, results also suggest that the gender and age relationship with WHtR may warrant the development of individual cut-offs to optimize health outcomes. Trends through multiple countries show that the optimum cut-point for WHtR increases with age while the area under the curve (AUROC) decreases for both men and women. Comparison between BMI and WHtR indicate that BMI may remain more robust than WHtR. Implications for public health policy are discussed.

Keywords: hypertension, obesity, Waist-Height ratio, SAGE

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Authors: Sana Gul, Sheeba Murad, Aneela Javed

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Introduction: Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) is small DNA virus mostly infecting mucosa and cutaneous keratinocytes. So far, more than 200 Human papillomaviruses are known. HPV have been divided into high- and low-risk on the basis of their oncogenic potential. High risk HPV is considered to be the main etiological cause for cervical cancer. Objective: Current study was designed to screen the local cervical cancer patients from the twin cities of Pakistan for the occurance of high risk HPV. Methodology: A total of 67 formalin fixed paraffin-embedded samples of cervical cancer biopsies were obtained from the government hospitals in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Cervical cancer biopsies were examined for the presence of HPV DNA. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used for the amplification of a region in the HPV-L1 gene for the general detection of the Papilloma virus and for the genotype specific detection of high risk HPV 16 and 18 using the GP5/GP6 primers and genotype specific primers respectively. Results: HPV DNA was detected in 59 out of 67 samples analyzed. 30 samples showed the presence of HPV16 while 22 samples were positive for HPV 18 . HPV subtype could not be determined in 7 samples. Conclusion: Our results show a strong association between HPV infection and cervical cancer among women in twin cities of Pakistan. One way to minimize the disease burden in relation to HPV infection in Pakistani population is the use of prophylactic vaccines and routine screening. An early diagnosis of HPV infection will allow better health management to reduce the risk of developing cervical cancer.

Keywords: cervical cancer, Pakistan, human papillomavirus, HPV 16

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Authors: Benmoussa Rachid, Deguio Roland, Dubois Sebastien, Rasovska Ivana

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Implementation of LARG (Lean, Agile, Resilient, Green) practices in the supply chain management is a complex task mainly because ecological, economical and operational goals are usually in conflict. To implement these LARG practices successfully, companies’ need relevant decision making tools allowing processes performance control and improvement strategies visibility. To contribute to this issue, this work tries to answer the following research question: How to master performance and anticipate problems in supply chain LARG practices implementation? To answer this question, a risk management approach (RMA) is adopted. Indeed, the proposed RMA aims basically to assess the ability of a supply chain, guided by “Lean, Green and Achievement” performance goals, to face “agility and resilience risk” factors. To proof its relevance, a logistics academic case study based on simulation is used to illustrate all its stages. It shows particularly how to build the “LARG risk map” which is the main output of this approach.

Keywords: agile supply chain, lean supply chain, green supply chain, resilient supply chain, risk approach

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Authors: Suvorov Vasyl, Filipchuk Viktor

Abstract:

Background: If non-surgical treatment of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) fails or if DDH is late-detected, surgery is necessary. Salter pelvic osteotomy (SPO) is an effective surgical option for such cases. The objectives of this study were to assess the results after SPO, evaluate risk factors, and reveal those radiological parameters that may correlate with the results. Mid- and long-term postoperative results after SPO in 17 patients (22 hip joints) were analyzed. Risk factors included those that do not depend on the surgeon (patient's age, value of the acetabular index (AI) preoperatively, DDH Tonnis grade) and those that depend on the surgeon (amount of AI correction). To radiological parameters which may correlate with the amount of AI correction, we referred distance "d" and the lateral rotation angle. Results: SPO allows performing AI correction in ranges 24.1 ± 6.5°. Excellent and good clinical results were obtained in 95.5% of patients; excellent and good radiological results in 86.4% of patients. Risk factors that do not depend on the surgeon were older patient’s age and higher preoperative AI values (p < 0.05). The risk factor that depends on the surgeon was the amount of AI correction (p < 0.05). The distance "d" was recognized as a radiological parameter that may indicate sufficient AI correction (p < 0.05). Conclusion: In older patients with a higher preoperative AI value, the results will be predictably worse. The surgeon may influence the result with a greater amount of AI correction (which may also be indicated radiologically by the distance "d" values).

Keywords: developmental dysplasia of the hip, results, risk factor, pelvic osteotomy, salter osteotomy

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Authors: Mehrnaz Farzingohar, Mehran Yasemi, Ahmad Savari

Abstract:

The oil products are imported and exported via Rajaee’s tanker terminal. Within loading and discharging in several cases the oil is released into the berths and made oil spills. The spills are distributed within short time and seriously affected Rajaee port’s environment and even extended areas. The trajectory and fate of oil spills investigated by modeling and parted by three risk levels base on the modeling results. First GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) applied to trajectory the liquid oil. Second, ALOHA (Areal Location Of Hazardous Atmosphere) air quality model, is integrated to predict the oil evaporation path within the air. Base on the identified zones the high risk areas are signed by colored dots which their densities calculated and clarified on a map which displayed the harm places. Wind and water circulation moved the pollution to the East of Rajaee Port that accumulated about 12 km of coastline. Approximately 20 km of north east of Qeshm Island shore is covered by the three levels of risky areas. Since the main wind direction is SSW the pollution pushed to the east and the highest risk zones formed on the crests edges hence the low risk appeared on the concavities. This assessment help the management and emergency systems to monitor the exposure places base on the priority factors and find the best approaches to protect the environment.

Keywords: oil spill, modeling, pollution, risk assessment

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