Search results for: Human risk

Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Earthquakes are natural disasters that pose a significant risk to human life and infrastructure. Effective earthquake mitigation measures require a thorough understanding of the dynamics of seismic occurrences, including thrust movement. Traditionally, estimating thrust movement has relied on typical techniques that may not capture the full complexity of these events. Therefore, investigating alternative approaches, such as incorporating out-of-sequence thrust movement data, could enhance earthquake mitigation strategies. This review aims to provide an overview of the applications of out-of-sequence thrust movement in earthquake mitigation. By examining existing research and studies, the objective is to understand how precise estimation of thrust movement can contribute to improving structural design, analyzing infrastructure risk, and developing early warning systems. The study demonstrates how to estimate out-of-sequence thrust movement using multiple data sources, including GPS measurements, satellite imagery, and seismic recordings. By analyzing and synthesizing these diverse datasets, researchers can gain a more comprehensive understanding of thrust movement dynamics during seismic occurrences. The review identifies potential advantages of incorporating out-of-sequence data in earthquake mitigation techniques. These include improving the efficiency of structural design, enhancing infrastructure risk analysis, and developing more accurate early warning systems. By considering out-of-sequence thrust movement estimates, researchers and policymakers can make informed decisions to mitigate the impact of earthquakes. This study contributes to the field of seismic monitoring and earthquake risk assessment by highlighting the benefits of incorporating out-of-sequence thrust movement data. By broadening the scope of analysis beyond traditional techniques, researchers can enhance their knowledge of earthquake dynamics and improve the effectiveness of mitigation measures. The study collects data from various sources, including GPS measurements, satellite imagery, and seismic recordings. These datasets are then analyzed using appropriate statistical and computational techniques to estimate out-of-sequence thrust movement. The review integrates findings from multiple studies to provide a comprehensive assessment of the topic. The study concludes that incorporating out-of-sequence thrust movement data can significantly enhance earthquake mitigation measures. By utilizing diverse data sources, researchers and policymakers can gain a more comprehensive understanding of seismic dynamics and make informed decisions. However, challenges exist, such as data quality difficulties, modelling uncertainties, and computational complications. To address these obstacles and improve the accuracy of estimates, further research and advancements in methodology are recommended. Overall, this review serves as a valuable resource for researchers, engineers, and policymakers involved in earthquake mitigation, as it encourages the development of innovative strategies based on a better understanding of thrust movement dynamics.

Keywords: earthquake, out-of-sequence thrust, disaster, human life

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Authors: Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Pei-Chih Wu, Hsien-Chang Wang

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Taiwan, a climatically challenged island, has always been keen on the issue of water resource management due to its limitations in water storage. Since water resource management has been the focal point of many adaptations to climate change, there has been a lack of attention on another issue, water quality. This study chooses the Errer River Basin as the experimental focus for water quality in Taiwan. With the Errer River Basin being one of the most polluted rivers in Taiwan, this study observes the effects of climate change on this river over a period of time. Taiwan is also targeted by multiple typhoons every year, the heavy rainfall and strong winds create problems of pollution being carried to different river segments, including into the ocean. This study aims to create an impact and risk assessment on Errer River Basin, to show the connection from climate change to potential extreme events, which in turn could influence water quality and ultimately human health. Using dynamic downscaling, this study narrows the information from a global scale to a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Then, through interpolation, the resolution is further narrowed into a resolution of 200m x 200m, to analyze the past, present, and future of extreme events. According to different climate change scenarios, this study designs an assessment index on the vulnerability of the Errer River Basin. Through this index, Errer River inhabitants can access advice on adaptations to climate change and act accordingly.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, water quality, risk assessment

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Authors: L. Bikulciene, E. Venskaityte, G. Jarusevicius

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Non-stationary and nonlinear signals generated by living complex systems defy traditional mechanistic approaches, which are based on homeostasis. Previous our studies have shown that the evaluation of the interactions of physiological signals by using special analysis methods is suitable for observation of physiological processes. It is demonstrated the possibility of using deep physiological model, based interpretation of the changes of the human body’s functional states combined with an application of the analytical method based on matrix theory for the physiological signals analysis, which was applied on high risk cardiac patients. It is shown that evaluation of cardiac signals interactions show peculiar for each individual functional changes at the onset of hemodynamic restoration procedure. Therefore we suggest that the alterations of functional state of the body, after patients overcome surgery can be complemented by the data received from the suggested approach of the evaluation of functional variables interactions.

Keywords: cardiac diseases, complex systems theory, ECG analysis, matrix analysis

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Authors: Adelakun O. Johnson

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The quest to mitigate the probable adverse effects of geopolitical risk on FDI inflows tends to result in more frequent changes in economic policies and, as a result, heightened policy uncertainty. In this regard, we extend the literature on the dynamics of FDI inflows to include the hypothesis of the possibility of geopolitical risk escalating the adverse effects of economic policy uncertainty on FDI inflows. To test the robustness of this hypothesis, we use the cases of different economic groups characterized by different levels of economic development and varying degrees of FDI confidence. Employing an ARDL-based dynamic panel data model that accounts for both non-stationarity and heterogeneity effects, we show result that suggests GPR and EPU retard the inflows of FDI in both economies but mainly in the short-run situation. In the long run, however, higher EPU not attributed to GPR is likely to boost the inflows of FDI rather than retarding, at least in the case of the G7 economy.

Keywords: FDI inflows, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, panel ARDL model

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Authors: Henry Lau, Dilupa Nakandala, Li Zhao

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In today’s business, it is well-recognized that risk is an important factor that needs to be taken into consideration before a decision is made. Studies indicate that both the number of risks faced by organizations and their potential consequences are growing. Supply chain risk management has become one of the major concerns for practitioners and researchers. Supply chain leaders and scholars are now focusing on the importance of managing supply chain risk. In order to meet the challenge of managing and mitigating supply chain risk (SCR), we must first identify the different dimensions of SCR and assess its relevant probability and severity. SCR has been classified in many different ways, and there are no consistently accepted dimensions of SCRs and several different classifications are reported in the literature. Basically, supply chain risks can be classified into two dimensions namely disruption risk and operational risk. Disruption risks are those caused by events such as bankruptcy, natural disasters and terrorist attack. Operational risks are related to supply and demand coordination and uncertainty, such as uncertain demand and uncertain supply. Disruption risks are rare but severe and hard to manage, while operational risk can be reduced through effective SCM activities. Other SCRs include supply risk, process risk, demand risk and technology risk. In fact, the disorganized classification of SCR has created confusion for SCR scholars. Moreover, practitioners need to identify and assess SCR. As such, it is important to have an overarching framework tying all these SCR dimensions together for two reasons. First, it helps researchers use these terms for communication of ideas based on the same concept. Second, a shared understanding of the SCR dimensions will support the researchers to focus on the more important research objective: operationalization of SCR, which is very important for assessing SCR. In general, fresh food supply chain is subject to certain level of risks, such as supply risk (low quality, delivery failure, hot weather etc.) and demand risk (season food imbalance, new competitors). Effective strategies to mitigate fresh food supply chain risk are required to enhance operations. Before implementing effective mitigation strategies, we need to identify the risk sources and evaluate the risk level. However, assessing the supply chain risk is not an easy matter, and existing research mainly use qualitative method, such as risk assessment matrix. To address the relevant issues, this paper aims to analyze the risk factor of the fresh food supply chain using an approach comprising both fuzzy logic and hierarchical holographic modeling techniques. This novel approach is able to take advantage the benefits of both of these well-known techniques and at the same time offset their drawbacks in certain aspects. In order to develop this integrated approach, substantial research work is needed to effectively combine these two techniques in a seamless way, To validate the proposed integrated approach, a case study in a fresh food supply chain company was conducted to verify the feasibility of its functionality in a real environment.

Keywords: fresh food supply chain, fuzzy logic, hierarchical holographic modelling, operationalization, supply chain risk

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

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This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization

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Authors: Timothy Fwa Yerima

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This paper evaluates the development of human rights jurisprudence in Africa by the ECOWAS Court of Justice. It traces that though ECOWAS was not established with the aim of promoting and protecting human rights as the African Court of Human and Peoples’ Rights, no doubt, the 1991 ECOWAS Court Protocol and the 1993 ECOWAS Revised Treaty give the ECOWAS Court its human rights mandate. The paper, however, points out that despite the availability of these two Laws, the ECOWAS Court had difficulty in its human rights mandate, in view of the twin problems of lack of access to the Court by private parties and personal jurisdiction of the Court to entertain cases filed by private parties. The paper considers the 2005 Supplementary Protocol, not only as an effective legal framework in West African Sub-Region that tackles these problems in human rights cases but also a strong foundation upon which the Court has been developing human rights jurisprudence in Africa through the interpretation and application of this Law and other sources of Law of the Court. After a thorough analysis of some principles laid down by the ECOWAS Court so far, the paper observes that human rights jurisprudence in Africa is growing rapidly; depicting that though the ECOWAS Court initially had difficulty in its human rights mandate, today it has a bright and visionary landing. The paper concludes that West African Sub-Region will witness a more effective performance of the ECOWAS Court if some of its challenges are tackled.

Keywords: access, African human rights, ECOWAS court of justice, jurisprudence, personal jurisdiction

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Authors: S. J. Higgs, E. Van Eck, K. Heynis, S. H. Broadberry

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Engagement with non-human animals is a rapidly-growing field of study within the animal science and social science sectors, with human-interactions occurring in many forms; interactions, encounters and animal-assisted therapy. To our knowledge, there has been a wide array of research published on domestic and livestock human-animal interactions, however, there appear to be fewer publications relating to zoo animals and the effect these interactions have on the animal, human and establishment. The aim of this study was to identify if there were any perceivable benefits from the human-animal interaction for the cheetah, the human and the establishment. Behaviour data were collected before, during and after the interaction on the behaviour of the cheetah and the human participants to highlight any trends with nine interactions conducted. All 35 participants were asked to fill in a questionnaire prior to the interaction and immediately after to ascertain if their perceptions changed following an interaction with the cheetah. An online questionnaire was also distributed for three months to gain an understanding of the perceptions of human-animal interactions from members of the public, gaining 229 responses. Both questionnaires contained qualitative and quantitative questions to allow for specific definitive answers to be analysed, but also expansion on the participants perceived perception of human-animal interactions. In conclusion, it was found that participants’ perceptions of human-animal interactions saw a positive change, with 64% of participants altering their opinion and viewing the interaction as beneficial for the cheetah (reduction in stress assumed behaviours) following participation in a 15-minute interaction. However, it was noted that many participants felt the interaction lacked educational values and therefore this is an area in which zoological establishments can work to further improve upon. The results highlighted many positive benefits for the human, animal and establishment, however, the study does indicate further areas for research in order to promote positive perceptions of human-animal interactions and to further increase the welfare of the animal during these interactions, with recommendations to create and regulate legislation.

Keywords: Acinonyx jubatus, encounters, human-animal interactions, perceptions, zoological establishments

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Authors: Weiming Hu, Xu Li, Xiaonan Li, Zhong Xu, Li Yuan, Xuan Dong

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Maneuver decision-making plays a critical role in high-performance intelligent driving. This paper proposes a risk assessment-based decision-making network (RADMN) to address the problem of driving strategy for the commercial vehicle. RADMN integrates two networks, aiming at identifying the risk degree of collision and rollover and providing decisions to ensure the effectiveness and reliability of driving strategy. In the risk assessment module, risk degrees of the backward collision, forward collision and rollover are quantified for hazard recognition. In the decision module, a deep reinforcement learning based on multi-objective optimization (DRL-MOO) algorithm is designed, which comprehensively considers the risk degree and motion states of each traffic participant. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, Prescan/Simulink joint simulation was conducted in highway scenarios. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed RADMN. The output driving strategy can guarantee the safety and provide key technical support for the realization of autonomous driving of commercial vehicles.

Keywords: decision-making strategy, risk assessment, multi-objective optimization, commercial vehicle

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Authors: Paschal Ohalehi

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper, which is part of a PhD thesis is to examine the role of risk based approach in minimising financial crime in the charity sector as well as offer recommendations to improving the quality of charity regulation whilst still retaining risk based approach as a regulatory framework and also making a case for a new regulatory model. Increase in financial crimes in the charity sector has put the role of regulation in minimising financial crime up for debates amongst researchers and practitioners. Although previous research has addressed the regulation of charities, research on the role of risk based approach to minimising financial crime in the charity sector is limited. Financial crime is a concern for all organisation including charities. Design/methodology/approach - This research adopts a social constructionist’s epistemological position. This research is carried out using semi structured in-depth interviews amongst randomly selected 24 charity trustees divided into three classes: 10 small charities, 10 medium charities and 4 large charities. The researcher also interviewed 4 stakeholders (NFA, Charity Commission and two different police forces in terms of size and area of coverage) in the charity sector. Findings - The results of this research show that reliance on risk based approach to financial crime in the sector is weak and fragmented with the research pointing to a clear evidence of disconnect between the regulator and the regulated leading to little or lack of regulation of trustees’ activities, limited monitoring of charities and lack of training and awareness on financial crime in the sector. Originality – This paper shows how regulation of charities in general and risk based approach in particular can be improved in order to meet the expectations of the stakeholders, the public, the regulator and the regulated.

Keywords: risk, risk based approach, financial crime, fraud, self-regulation

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Authors: Paul W. Murray, Marco Barajas

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Recent changes in supply chains, especially globalization and collaboration, have created new risks for enterprises of all sizes. A variety of complex frameworks, often based on enterprise risk management strategies have been presented under the heading of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The literature on promotes the benefits of a robust SCRM strategy; however, implementing SCRM is difficult and resource demanding for Large Enterprises (LEs), and essentially out of reach for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). This research debunks the idea that SCRM is necessary for all enterprises and instead proposes a simple and effective Vendor Selection Template (VST). Empirical testing and a survey of supply chain practitioners provide a measure of validation to the VST. The resulting VSTis a valuable contribution because is easy to use, provides practical results, and is sufficiently flexible to be universally applied to SMEs.

Keywords: multiple regression analysis, supply chain management, risk assessment, vendor selection

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Authors: Nadia H. Mohammed, Anmar Al-Taie, Fadia H. Al-Sultany

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Although breast cancer prevalence continues to increase, mortality has been decreasing as a result of early detection and improvement in adjuvant systemic therapy. Nevertheless, this disease required further efforts to understand and identify the associated potential risk factors that could play a role in the prevalence of this malignancy among Iraqi women. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of certain predictive risk factors on the prevalence of breast cancer types among a sample of Iraqi women diagnosed with breast cancer. This was a retrospective observational study carried out at National Cancer Research Center in College of Medicine, Baghdad University from November 2017 to January 2018. Data of 100 patients with breast cancer whose biopsies examined in the National Cancer Research Center were included in this study. Data were collected to structure a detailed assessment regarding the patients’ demographic, medical and cancer records. The majority of study participants (94%) suffered from ductal breast cancer with mean age 49.57 years. Among those women, 48.9% were obese with body mass index (BMI) 35 kg/m². 68.1% of them had positive family history of breast cancer and 66% had low parity. 40.4% had stage II ductal breast cancer followed by 25.5% with stage III. It was found that 59.6% and 68.1% had positive oestrogen receptor sensitivity and positive human epidermal growth factor (HER2/neu) receptor sensitivity respectively. In regard to the impact of prediction of certain variables on the incidence of ductal breast cancer, positive family history of breast cancer (P < 0.0001), low parity (P< 0.0001), stage I and II breast cancer (P = 0.02) and positive HER2/neu status (P < 0.0001) were significant predictive factors among the study participants. The results from this study provide relevant evidence for a significant positive and potential association between certain risk factors and the prevalence of breast cancer among Iraqi women.

Keywords: Ductal Breast Cancer, Hormone Sensitivity, Iraq, Risk Factors

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Authors: Herng-Sheng Lee, Chi-Yi Chen, Wan-Ting Huang, Li-Jen Chang, Solomon Chih-Cheng Chen, Hsin-Yi Yang

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A variety of gastrointestinal disorders, such as Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, and coeliac disease, are recognized as risk factors for osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. One recent study suggests that individuals with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) might also be at increased risk of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. Up to now, the association between IBS and the risk of fractures at different anatomic sites occurrences is not completely clear. We conducted a population-based cohort analysis to investigate the fracture risk of IBS in comparison with non-IBS group. We identified 29,505 adults aged ≥ 20 years with newly diagnosed IBS using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database in 2000-2012. A comparison group was constructed of patients without IBS who were matched according to gender and age. The occurrence of fracture was monitored until the end of 2013. We analyzed the risk of fracture events to occur in IBS by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Patients with IBS had a higher incidence of osteoporotic fractures compared with non-IBS group (12.34 versus 9.45 per 1,000 person-years) and an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.27, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 – 1.35). Site specific analysis showed that the IBS group had a higher risk of fractures for spine, forearm, hip and hand than did the non-IBS group. With further stratification for gender and age, a higher aHR value for osteoporotic fractures in IBS group was seen across all age groups in males, but seen in elderly females. In addition, female, elderly, low income, hypertension, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and depressive disorders as independent osteoporotic fracture risk factors in IBS patients. The IBS is considered as a risk factor for osteoporotic fractures, particularly in female individuals and fracture sites located at the spine, forearm, hip and hand.

Keywords: irritable bowel syndrome, fracture, gender difference, longitudinal health insurance database, public health

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Authors: Varinder Singh

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The primitive man had not known anything like human rights. In the later centuries of human progress with the development of scientific and technological knowledge, the growth of population and the tremendous changes in the human environment, the laws of nature that maintained the Eco-balance crumbled. The race for better and comfortable life landed mankind in a vicious circle. It created environmental imbalance, unplanned and uneven development, breakdown of self-sustaining village economy, mushrooming of shanty towns and slums, widening the chasm between the rich and the poor, over-exploitation of natural resources, desertification of arable lands, pollution of different kinds, heating up of earth and depletion of ozone layer. Modem International Life has been deeply marked and transformed by current endeavors to meet the needs and fulfill the requirements of protection of human person and of the environment. Such endeavors have been encouraged by the widespread recognition that protection of human being and the environment reflects common superior values and constitutes a common concern of mankind. The parallel evolutions of human rights protection and environmental protection disclose some close affinities. There was the occurrence of process of internationalization of both human rights protection and environmental protection, the former beginning with the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the latter with the 1972 Stockholm Declaration on the Human Environment.It is now well established that it is the basic human right of every individual to live in a pollution free environment with full human dignity. The judiciary has so far pronounced a number of judgments in this regard. The Supreme Court in view of various laws relating to environment protection and the constitutional provision has held that right to pollution free environment. Article-21 is the heart of the fundamental rights and has received expanded meanings from time to time.

Keywords: human rights, law, environment, polluter

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Authors: Fatemeh Jalalvand

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The critical human rights problems such as extreme poverty, hunger, inequalities and gender discrimination need to be addressed by powerful and influential actors in the world. In today’s globalization, corporations have become one of the potent agents in the society. They are capable of generating economic growth, reducing poverty, and increasing the well-being of individuals, thereby contributing to the betterment of a broad spectrum of human rights. However, the discussion on how business can contribute to human rights has primarily focused on not violating them (reactive approach) rather than improving the conditions and solving the problems of human rights (proactive approach). In particular, the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in bringing proactivity of business in human rights has gained less attention. This paper develops a conceptual framework to examine the role of different categories of CSR, including discretionary, ethical, legal, instrumental and political CSR in encouraging the proactive contribution of corporations to the betterment of human rights. The five propositions, related to the conceptual framework, outline the relationships between five categories of CSR and proactivity of corporations in human rights. The findings indicate that discretionary CSR with voluntary nature might not be able to motivate any contribution of business in human rights. Moreover, ethical CSR and legal CSR might lead to reactive strategies of business toward human rights. Meanwhile, the economic incentives behind the notion of instrumental CSR could result in partial proactive engagement of corporations in human rights. Finally, the internal motives as profit and power besides the external duties might lead to the highest level of proactivity of corporations in human rights under the context of political CSR. The model developed offers a map for business to adopt proactive human rights strategies more systematically maintaining key profit-drivers like power and profit. In sum, instrumental and political categories of CSR might lead corporations to improve the conditions of human rights proactively.

Keywords: CSR, human rights, proactive approach, reactive approach

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Authors: Santiago Martínez Hernández

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The establishment of the European Union signified the culmination of the supra-national power addressing economic, political, legal and humanitarian matters within and above a national territory. Human rights have taken a protagonist role as one of the pressing concerns that the EU addresses, and one of the most critical problems is that of human trafficking. This multi-billion dollar criminal business represents $31.6 per year made out of 2.5 million trafficked persons worldwide, making it one of the most crucial human rights problems in the world to address. The EU has developed strategies to tackle this issue through supra-national governance, however, how have they fared? What is the impact of its development on the issue? This paper will address the direct and indirect impact of the formation of the European Union as a supranational political and economic entity on the illicit industry of human trafficking in Europe. It attempts to analyse first, the situation of human trafficking in Europe, as an attempt to understand its importance in the region, addressing its root causes and the role of the states addressed. Second, the paper will examine the impact of the EU on human breaking down its policy-making at a supranational level, the role of the economic integration of the region, and the change of migration patterns since its inception.

Keywords: human trafficking, human rights, European union, criminal business

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Authors: Onur Arugaslan, Ajay Samant, Devrim Yaman

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Financial advisors and investors seek new assets which could potentially increase portfolio returns and decrease portfolio risk. Cryptocurrencies represent a relatively new asset class which could serve in both these roles. There has been very little research done in the area of the risk/return tradeoff in a portfolio consisting of fixed income assets, stocks, and cryptocurrency. The objective of this study is a rigorous examination of this issue. The data used in the study are the monthly returns on 4-week US Treasury Bills, S&P Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Stock Index. The methodology used in the study is the application Modern Portfolio Theory to evaluate the risk-adjusted returns of portfolios with varying combinations of these assets, using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen Indexes, as well as the Sortino and Modigliani measures. The results of the study would include the ranking of various investment portfolios based on their risk/return characteristics. The conclusions of the study would include objective empirical inference for investors who are interested in including cryptocurrency in their asset portfolios but are unsure of the risk/return implications.

Keywords: financial economics, portfolio diversification, fixed income securities, cryptocurrency, stock indexes

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Authors: Tzu-Ting Hu, Jung-Der Wang, Ming-Yeng Lin, Jin-Luh Chen, Perng-Jy Tsai

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The vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) has been classified as group 1 (human) carcinogen by the IARC. Workers exposed to VCM are known associated with the development of the liver cancer and hence might cause economical and health losses. Particularly, for those work for the petrochemical industry have been seriously concerned in the environmental and occupational health field. Considering assessing workers’ health risks and their resultant economical and health losses requires the establishment of long-term VCM exposure data for any similar exposure group (SEG) of interest, the development of suitable technologies has become an urgent and important issue. In the present study, VCM exposures for petrochemical industry workers were determined firstly based on the database of the 'Workplace Environmental Monitoring Information Systems (WEMIS)' provided by Taiwan OSHA. Considering the existence of miss data, the reconstruction of historical exposure techniques were then used for completing the long-term exposure data for SEGs with routine operations. For SEGs with non-routine operations, exposure modeling techniques, together with their time/activity records, were adopted for determining their long-term exposure concentrations. The Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) was adopted for conducting exposure and health risk assessments for any given SEG in the petrochemical industry. The resultant excessive cancer risk was then used to determine the corresponding loss of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE). Results show that low average concentrations can be found for SEGs with routine operations (e.g., VCM rectification 0.0973 ppm, polymerization 0.306 ppm, reaction tank 0.33 ppm, VCM recovery 1.4 ppm, control room 0.14 ppm, VCM storage tanks 0.095 ppm and wastewater treatment 0.390 ppm), and the above values were much lower than that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 3 ppm) of VCM promulgated in Taiwan. For non-routine workers, though their high exposure concentrations, their low exposure time and frequencies result in low corresponding health risks. Through the consideration of exposure assessment results, health risk assessment results, and QALE results simultaneously, it is concluded that the proposed method was useful for prioritizing SEGs for conducting exposure abatement measurements. Particularly, the obtained QALE results further indicate the importance of reducing workers’ VCM exposures, though their exposures were low as in comparison with the PEL and the acceptable health risk.

Keywords: exposure assessment, health risk assessment, petrochemical industry, quality-adjusted life years, vinyl chloride monomer

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Authors: Ayyoub Jamali, Alena Kozlova

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has tested the mettle of the international community, prompting not only States but also non-state actors to take deterrent action in response. Indeed, international sports organisations, namely FIFA and UEFA, have been rather successful in shifting the power dynamics by introducing a complete ban on the Russian national and club teams. This article aims to inquire into the human rights implications of such actions taken by international sports organisations. First, the article departs from an assessment of the legal status of FIFA and UEFA under international law and reflects on how a legal link could be established vis-à-vis their human rights obligations. Second, it examines the human rights aspects of the impugned measures by FIFA and UEFA on the part of the Russian athletes, further scrutinising them against the international human rights law principle of non-discrimination through a proportionality test. Last, it draws basic pathways for how possible human rights violations committed in the context of measures adopted by such organisations could be remedied, outlining the challenges of arbitration and litigation in Switzerland.

Keywords: FIFA, UEFA, FUR, ban, human rights, Russia, Ukraine, non-state actors

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Authors: Nantale Prossy Nabatte, Josephat Nyagero, Elizabeth Kemigisha

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Background: Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) is a prevalent sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the world. It is important to screen for HPV so that women found positive receive early treatment to prevent the development of cervical cancer. The broad aim of the research was to explore the types, occurrence, and associated correlates of HPV infection by genotyping Human papillomavirus among a cohort of WLHIV attending an antiretroviral therapy clinic in Mukono, Uganda. Methods: A cross-sectional study was used to collect data for socio-demographic, sexual practices, and medical history factors associated with HPV genotypes using a pretested interview guide subjected to 342 WLHIV. The respondents’ results for HPV genotypes were obtained retrospectively from respective laboratory records. Data was entered in Epidata v4.6 and analysed using STATA V14. The prevalence of hr-HPV was estimated as a proportion of the entire sample size. Analysis for the correlates of hr-HPV infection was done using a modified Poisson regression model. Results: Slightly more than a half of respondents were aged below 35 years (56.7%), married (52.6%), and with a primary level of education (51.2%). The prevalence of hr-HPV was 39.8% at a 95% confidence interval (CI: 34.40- 44.78). The hr-HPV was higher among those between 30-34 years of age (n= 41, 30.2%) than those between the age of 45-49 years (n=16, 11.8%). In terms of associated correlates, age 45-49 years (aPR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.41- 2.69), being married (aPR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.69), use of condoms (aPR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.00 -1.71) and age of sexual debut (aPR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.08-1.87) were significantly associated with Human papillomavirus genotypes. Conclusion and Recommendation: The prevalence of hr-HPV infection was high, indicative of a risk to the health of WLHIV in Mukono, Uganda, and worldwide at large. The correlates are age 45-49 years, being married, use of condoms, and age of sexual debut. Based on the results, it is recommended that the implementing teams in such projects put more emphasis on the diagnosis of hr-HPV infection and monitoring the treatment. More research is required to determine the effect of ART therapy on hr-HPV persistence.

Keywords: human papillomavirus genotypes, and their correlates, among women living with HIV, attending antiretroviral clinic

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Authors: Amanda R. R. Oliveira, Caio F. F. C. Cunha, Juan C. L. Junior, Amorim H. P. Junior

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Children deaths are traumatic events that most often can be prevented. The technology of prevention and intervention in cases of infant deaths is available at low cost and with solid evidence and favorable results, however, with low access cover. Weight is one of the main factors related to death in the neonatal period, so the newborns of low birth weight are a population at high risk of death in the neonatal period, especially early neonatal period. This paper describes the development of a model based in neural network analysis to predict the mortality risk rating in the early neonatal period for newborns of low birth weight to identify the individuals of this population with increased risk of death. The neural network applied was trained with a set of newborns data obtained from Brazilian health system. The resulting network presented great success rate in identifying newborns with high chances of death, which demonstrates the potential for using this tool in an integrated manner to the health system, in order to direct specific actions for improving prognosis of newborns.

Keywords: low birth weight, neonatal death risk, neural network, newborn

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Authors: Jennifer Reese, Josh Biber, Howard Weeks, Rachel Hess

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Aim: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Screen (EPDS) is a mental health screening for pregnant women that has been widely used over the last 30 years. This screen is typically given in clinic on paper to patients throughout pregnancy and postpartum. The screen helps identify patients who may be at risk for pregnancy related depression or postpartum depression. In early 2016, University of Utah Health implemented an electronic version of the EPDS as well as the PROMIS Depression v1.0 instrument for all pregnant and postpartum patients. We asked patients both instruments to understand coverage of patients identified as at risk for each instrument. Methods: The EPDS is currently administered as part of our PRO template for pregnant and postpartum women. We also administer the PROMIS Depression as part of a standard PRO assessment to all patients. Patients are asked to complete an assessment no more often than every eight weeks. PRO assessments are either completed at home or in clinic with a tablet computer. Patients with a PROMIS score of ≥ 65 or a EPDS score of ≥ 10 were identified as at risk for depression Results: From April 2016 to April 2017, 1,330 unique patients were screened at University of Utah Health in OBGYN clinics with both the EPDS and PROMIS depression instrument on the same day. There were 28 (2.1%) patients were identified as at risk for depression using the PROMIS depression screen, while 262 (19.7%) patients were identified as at risk for postpartum depression using the EPDS screen. Overall, 27 (2%) patients were identified as at risk on both instruments. Conclusion: The EPDS identified a higher percent (19.7%) of patients at risk for depression when compared to the PROMIS depression (2.1%). Ninety-six percent of patients who screened positive on the PROMIS depression screen also screened positive on the EPDS screen. Mental health is an important component to a patient’s overall wellbeing. We want to ensure all patients, particularly pregnant or post-partum women, receive screening and treatment when necessary. A combination of screenings may be necessary to provide the overall best care for patients and to identify the highest percentage of patients at risk.

Keywords: patient reported outcomes, mental health, maternal, depression

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Worldwide regulators, practitioners and researchers view risk-disclosure as one of the most important steps that will promote corporate accountability and transparency. Recognizing this growing significance of risk disclosures, the paper first develops a risk disclosure index. Covering 69 risk items/themes, this index is developed by employing thematic content analysis and encompasses three attributes of disclosure: namely, nature (qualitative or quantitative), time horizon (backward-looking or forward-looking) and tone (no impact, positive impact or negative impact). As the focus of study is on substantive rather than symbolic disclosure, content analysis has been carried out manually. The study is based on non-financial companies of Nifty500 index and covers a ten year period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015, thus yielding 3,872 annual reports for analysis. The analysis reveals that (on an average) only about 14% of risk items (i.e. about 10 out 69 risk items studied) are being disclosed by Indian companies. Risk items that are frequently disclosed are mostly macroeconomic in nature and their disclosures tend to be qualitative, forward-looking and conveying both positive and negative aspects of the concerned risk. The second objective of the paper is to gauge the factors that affect the level of disclosures in annual reports. Given the panel nature of data, and possible endogeneity amongst variables, Diff-GMM regression has been applied. The results indicate that age and size of firms have a significant positive impact on disclosure quality, whereas growth rate does not have a significant impact. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of disclosures. In terms of corporate governance variables, board size, board independence, CEO duality, presence of CRO and constitution of risk management committee appear to be significant factors in determining the quality of risk disclosures. It is noteworthy that the study contributes to literature by putting forth a variant to existing disclosure indices that not only captures the quantity but also the quality of disclosures (in terms of semantic attributes). Also, the study is a first of its kind attempt in a prominent emerging market i.e. India. Therefore, this study is expected to facilitate regulators in mandating and regulating risk disclosures and companies in their endeavor to reduce information asymmetry.

Keywords: risk disclosure, voluntary disclosures, corporate governance, Diff-GMM

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Authors: Ghimire K., Mehta R. S., Parajuli P., Chettri R.

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Background: Malnutrition is a common hallmark of Human Immuno Virus (HIV) disease. It plays a synergistic role in immunosuppression which is initiated by Human Immuno Virus itself, and malnutrition forms an independent risk factor for disease progression. Objectives: The objective of the study is to assess the nutritional status of the people living with Human Immuno Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome attending the Anti-Retro viral Treatment Clinic and find the association of nutritional status with different socio-demographic variables. Methods: A total of 101 people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) were selected by convenient sampling technique. The study was conducted at the ART clinic of BPKIHS. A subjective global assessment tool was used for data collection. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis. Results: The study demonstrated that the mean age of the respondents was 40.97+8.650 years. 65.3% were well-nourished, and 34.7% of the participants were mildly/moderately malnourished, whereas none of them were severely malnourished. BMI was statistically significant with education status, family income, and duration of illness of the participants, and nutritional status was statistically significant with gender, marital status, education status, and family history of HIV. Conclusion: On the basis of the result, it can be concluded that more than half of the respondents were well nourished. Gender, marital status, and education are associated with nutritional status.

Keywords: nutritional status, people living with HIV/AIDS, ART treatment, Nepal

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Authors: Muhammad Arzim Naim, Saiful Azhar Rosly, Mohamad Sahari Nordin

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The objective of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the rise of Shariah non-compliance risk that can bring Islamic banks to succumb to monetary loss. Prior literatures have never analyzed such risk in details despite lots of it arguing on the validity of some Shariah compliance products. The Shariah non-compliance risk in this context is looking to the potentially failure of the facility to stand from the court test say that if the banks bring it to the court for compensation from the defaulted clients. The risk may also arise if the customers refuse to make the financing payments on the grounds of the validity of the contracts, for example, when relinquishing critical requirement of Islamic contract such as ownership, the risk that may lead the banks to suffer loss when the customer invalidate the contract through the court. The impact of Shariah non-compliance risk to Islamic banks is similar to that of legal risks faced by the conventional banks. Both resulted into monetary losses to the banks respectively. In conventional banking environment, losses can be in the forms of summons paid to the customers if they won the case. In banking environment, this normally can be in very huge amount. However, it is right to mention that for Islamic banks, the subsequent impact to them can be rigorously big because it will affect their reputation. If the customers do not perceive them to be Shariah compliant, they will take their money and bank it in other places. This paper provides new insights of risks faced by credit intensive Islamic banks by providing a new extension of knowledge with regards to the Shariah non-compliance risk by identifying its individual components that directly affecting the risk together with empirical evidences. Not limited to the Islamic banking fraternities, the regulators and policy makers should be able to use findings in this paper to evaluate the components of the Shariah non-compliance risk and make the necessary actions. The paper is written based on Malaysia’s Islamic banking practices which may not directly related to other jurisdictions. Even though the focuses of this study is directly towards to the Bay Bithaman Ajil or popularly known as BBA (i.e. sale with deferred payments) financing modality, the result from this study may be applicable to other Islamic financing vehicles.

Keywords: Islamic banking, Islamic finance, Shariah Non-compliance risk, Bay Bithaman Ajil (BBA), principal axis factoring

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Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper is a concise introduction of the risk management on the water derivatives market. Water, a new commodity in the market, is one of the most important commodity on earth. As important to life and planet as crops, metals, and energy, none of them matters without water. This paper presents a brief overview of water as a tradable commodity via a new first of its kind futures contract on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index (NQH2O) derivative instrument, TheGeneralised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be the used to measure the water price volatility of the instrument and its performance since it’s been traded. describe the main products and illustrate their usage in risk management and also discuss key challenges with modeling and valuation of water as a traded commodity and finally discuss how water derivatives may be taken as an alternative asset investment class.

Keywords: water derivatives, commodity market, nasdaq veles california water Index (NQH2O, water price, risk management

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Authors: Muhammad Ridho Fakhrin, Leni Sagita Riantini, Yusuf Latief

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Based on the 2015-2019 RPJMN data, the realization of toll road infrastructure development in Indonesia experienced a delay of 49% or 904 km of the total plan. One of the major causes of delays in development is caused by institutional factors. The case study taken in this research is the construction of the Trans Sumatra Toll Road (JTTS). The purpose of this research is to identify the institutional forms, functions, roles, duties, and responsibilities of each stakeholder and the risks that occur in the Trans Sumatra Toll Road Infrastructure Development. Risk analysis is implemented on functions, roles, duties, responsibilities of each existing stakeholder and is carried out at the Funding Stage, Technical Planning Stage, and Construction Implementation Stage in JTTS. This research is conducted by collecting data through a questionnaire survey, then processed using statistical methods, such as homogeneity, data adequacy, validity, and reliability test, continued with risk assessment based on a risk matrix. The results of this study are the evaluation and development of institutional functions in risk-based JTTS development can improve time performance and minimize delays in the construction process.

Keywords: institutional, risk management, time performance, toll road

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Authors: B. Arend, P. Sunnen, P. Caire

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In a single case study, we show how a conversation analysis (CA) approach can shed light onto the sequential unfolding of human-robot interaction. Relying on video data, we are able to show that CA allows us to investigate the respective turn-taking systems of humans and a NAO robot in their dialogical dynamics, thus pointing out relevant differences. Our fine grained video analysis points out occurring breakdowns and their overcoming, when humans and a NAO-robot engage in a multimodally uttered multi-party communication during a sports guessing game. Our findings suggest that interdisciplinary work opens up the opportunity to gain new insights into the challenging issues of human robot communication in order to provide resources for developing mechanisms that enable complex human-robot interaction (HRI).

Keywords: human robot interaction, conversation analysis, dialogism, breakdown, museum

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Authors: Farrin Nayebzadeh, Mohammadreza Eslami Amirabadi

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According to technological progress and urban development, the cities of the world are growing to become metropolitans, living in which can be enthusiastic, entertaining and accessibility to the facilities like education, economic factors, hygiene and welfare is high. On the other hand, there are some problems that have been ignored in planning for such high quality of life, most important of which, is human health. Two aspects of human health are physical health and mental health, that are closely associated. Human mental health depends on two important factors: Biological factor and environmental factor. Air pollution is one of the most important environmental risk factors that affects mental health. Psychological and toxic effects of air pollution can lead to psychiatric symptoms, including anxiety and changes in mood, cognition, and behavior, depression and also children's mental disorders like hyperactivity, aggression and agitation. Increased levels of some air pollutants are accompanied by an increase in psychiatric admissions and emergency calls and, in some studies, by changes in behavior and a reduction in psychological well-being. Numerous toxic pollutants interfere with the development and adult functioning of the nervous system. Psychosocial stress can cause symptoms similar to those of organic mental disorders. These factors can cause resonance of psychiatric disorders. So, in cities of developing countries, people challenge with mental health problems due to environmental factors especially air pollution that have not been forecasted in urban planning.

Keywords: air pollution, environmental factors, mental health, psychiatric disorder

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Authors: Junhong Li, Danni Cheng, Yaxin Luo, Xiaowei Yi, Ke Qiu, Wendu Pang, Minzi Mao, Yufang Rao, Yao Song, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

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Background: The number of multiple cancer patients was increasing, and the impact of prior cancer history on salivary gland cancer patients remains unclear. Methods: Clinical, demographic and pathological information on salivary gland cancer patients were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2017, and the characteristics and prognosis between patients with a prior cancer and those without prior caner were compared. Univariate and multivariate cox proportional regression models were used for the analysis of prognosis. A risk score model was established to exam the impact of treatment on patients with a prior cancer in different risk groups. Results: A total of 9098 salivary gland cancer patients were identified, and 1635 of them had a prior cancer history. Salivary gland cancer patients with prior cancer had worse survival compared with those without a prior cancer (p<0.001). Patients with a different type of first cancer had a distinct prognosis (p<0.001), and longer latent time was associated with better survival (p=0.006) in the univariate model, although both became nonsignificant in the multivariate model. Salivary gland cancer patients with a prior cancer were divided into low-risk (n= 321), intermediate-risk (n=223), and high-risk (n=62) groups and the results showed that patients at high risk could benefit from surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy, and those at intermediate risk could benefit from surgery. Conclusion: Prior cancer history had an adverse impact on the survival of salivary gland cancer patients, and individualized treatment should be seriously considered for them.

Keywords: prior cancer history, prognosis, salivary gland cancer, SEER

Procedia PDF Downloads 146