Search results for: risk transfer

Authors: J. Iwaro, A. Mwasha, K. Ramsubhag

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Global warming has become a threat of our time. It poses challenges to the existence of beings on earth, the built environment, natural environment and has made a clear impact on the level of energy and water consumption. As such, increase in the ambient temperature increases indoor and outdoor temperature level of the buildings which brings about the use of more energy and mechanical air conditioning systems. In addition, in view of the increased modernization and economic growth in the developing countries, a significant amount of energy is being used, especially those with hot climatic conditions. Since modernization in developing countries is rising rapidly, more pressure is being placed on the buildings and energy resources to satisfy the indoor comfort requirements. This paper presents a sustainable passive roof solution as a means of reducing energy cooling loads for satisfying human comfort requirements in a hot climate. As such, the study based on the field study data discusses indoor thermal roof design strategies for a hot climate by investigating the impacts of roof thermal performance on indoor thermal comfort in naturally ventilated building envelope small scaled structures. In this respect, the traditional concrete flat roof, corrugated galvanised iron roof and pre-painted standing seam roof were used. The experiment made used of three identical small scale physical models constructed and sited on the roof of a building at the University of the West Indies. The results show that the utilization of insulation in traditional roofing systems will significantly reduce heat transfer between the internal and ambient environment, thus reducing the energy demand of the structure and the relative carbon footprint of a structure per unit area over its lifetime. Also, the application of flat slab concrete roofing system showed the best performance as opposed to the metal roof sheeting alternative systems. In addition, it has been shown experimentally through this study that a sustainable passive roof solution such as insulated flat concrete roof in hot dry climate has a better cooling strength that can provide building occupant with a better thermal comfort, conducive indoor conditions and energy efficiency.

Keywords: building envelope, roof, energy consumption, thermal comfort

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Authors: Mostafa Mabrouk, Basma E. Abdel-Ghany, Mona Moaness, Bothaina M. Abdel-Hady, Hanan H. Beherei

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Tissue engineering became a promising field for bone repair and regenerative medicine in which cultured cells, scaffolds and osteogenic inductive signals are used to regenerate tissues. The annual cost of treating bone defects in Egypt has been estimated to be many billions, while enormous costs are spent on imported bone grafts for bone injuries, tumors, and other pathologies associated with defective fracture healing. The current study is aimed at developing a more strategic approach in order to speed-up recovery after bone damage. This will reduce the risk of fatal surgical complications and improve the quality of life of people affected with such fractures. 3D scaffolds loaded with cheap nano-particles that possess an osteogenic effect were prepared by nano-electrospinning. The Microstructure and morphology characterizations of the 3D scaffolds were monitored using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The physicochemical characterization was investigated using X-ray diffractometry (XRD) and infrared spectroscopy (IR). The Physicomechanical properties of the 3D scaffold were determined by a universal testing machine. The in vitro bioactivity of the 3D scaffold was assessed in simulated body fluid (SBF). The bone-bonding ability of novel 3D scaffolds was also evaluated. The obtained nanofibrous scaffolds demonstrated promising microstructure, physicochemical and physicomechanical features appropriate for enhanced bone regeneration. Therefore, the utilized nanomaterials loaded with the drug are greatly recommended as cheap alternatives to growth factors.

Keywords: bone regeneration, cheap scaffolds, nanomaterials, active molecules

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Authors: Vasudha Thapa, Kiran Chappa

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There is a pressing need to prepare cities in the developing countries of the global south such as India against the chaos created by COVID 19 pandemic and future disaster risks. This pandemic posed the nation with an unprecedented challenge of dealing with a wave of stranded migrant workers. These workers comprise the most vulnerable section of the society in case of any pandemic or disaster risks. The COVID 19 pandemic exposed the vulnerability of migrant workers in the urban form and the need for capacity-building strategies against future pandemics. This paper highlights the challenges of these migrant workers in the case of Mumbai city in lockdown, post lockdown, and the current uncertain scenarios. The paper deals with a thorough investigation of the existing and the recent policies and strategies taken by the Urban Local Bodies (ULBs), state, and central government to assist these migrants in the city during this mayhem of uncertainties. The paper looks further deep into the challenges and opportunities presented in the current scenario through the assessment of existing data and response to policy measures taken by the government organizations. The ULBs are at the forefront in the response to any disaster risk, hence the paper assesses the capacity gaps of the Urban local bodies in mitigating the risks posed by any pandemic-like situation. The study further recommends capacity-building strategies at various levels of governance and uniform policy measures to assist the migrant population of the city.

Keywords: urban resilience, covid 19, migrant population, India, capacity building, governance

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Authors: Iftekhar Hassan, Sayedil Morsalin, Easir A Khan

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Accidents involving fire occur frequently in recent times and their causes showing a great deal of variety which require intervention methods and risk assessment strategies are unique in each case. On September 4, 2020, a fire and explosion occurred in a confined space caused by a methane gas leak from an underground pipeline in Baitus Salat Jame mosque during Night (Esha) prayer in Narayanganj District, Bangladesh that killed 34 people. In this research, this incident is simulated using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software to analyze and understand the nature of the accident and associated consequences. FDS is an advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD) system of fire-driven fluid flow which solves numerically a large eddy simulation form of the Navier–Stokes’s equations for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal radiation, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. This study focuses on understanding the nature of the fire and consequence evaluation due to thermal radiation caused by vapor cloud explosion. An evacuation modeling was constructed to visualize the effect of evacuation time and fractional effective dose (FED) for different types of agents. The results were presented by 3D animation, sliced pictures and graphical representation to understand fire hazards caused by thermal radiation or smoke due to vapor cloud explosion. This study will help to design and develop appropriate respond strategy for preventing similar accidents.

Keywords: consequence modeling, fire and explosion, fire dynamics simulation (FDS), thermal radiation

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Authors: Faiza Babur Khan, Sohail Asghar

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With an emergence of distributed environment, cloud computing is proving to be the most stimulating computing paradigm shift in computer technology, resulting in spectacular expansion in IT industry. Many companies have augmented their technical infrastructure by adopting cloud resource sharing architecture. Cloud computing has opened doors to unlimited opportunities from application to platform availability, expandable storage and provision of computing environment. However, from a security viewpoint, an added risk level is introduced from clouds, weakening the protection mechanisms, and hardening the availability of privacy, data security and on demand service. Issues of trust, confidentiality, and integrity are elevated due to multitenant resource sharing architecture of cloud. Trust or reliability of cloud refers to its capability of providing the needed services precisely and unfailingly. Confidentiality is the ability of the architecture to ensure authorization of the relevant party to access its private data. It also guarantees integrity to protect the data from being fabricated by an unauthorized user. So in order to assure provision of secured cloud, a roadmap or model is obligatory to analyze a security problem, design mitigation strategies, and evaluate solutions. The aim of the paper is twofold; first to enlighten the factors which make cloud security critical along with alleviation strategies and secondly to propose an intrusion detection model that identifies the attackers in a preventive way using machine learning Random Forest classifier with an accuracy of 99.8%. This model uses less number of features. A comparison with other classifiers is also presented.

Keywords: cloud security, threats, machine learning, random forest, classification

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Authors: Mustafa Mabruk

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Groups such as Al-Shabaab have managed to radicalize many individuals abroad, including the first American citizen to ever be radicalized. Yet the pathways of radicalization for these foreign individuals are understudied. Moreover, current measures to prevent foreign radicalization are ineffective, with privacy, screening and profiling implications that render current counter-radicalization efforts counterproductive. Such measures exhibit strictness, political bias, and harshness. As confirmed by recent studies, such counter-radicalization issues exacerbate existing grievances and channel fresh recruits to Al-Shabaab. Addressing these challenges is paramount, requiring alternative strategies to effectively reduce radicalization without triggering further harm. The development of counter-narratives emerges as a potential measure with minimal risk of exacerbating grievances, yet the development of such counter-narratives necessitates a thorough understanding of the radicalization pathways of foreign individuals that are understudied. This study investigates the success of Al-Shabaab in recruiting individuals abroad by analyzing their propaganda in conjunction with analyzing identity-focused theories of radicalization, including Framing Theory and Social Identity Theory. Qualitative content analysis is used to analyze various propaganda material, including tweets, speeches, and webpages. The analysis reveals that issues of identity are of major significance in the radicalization patterns identified and that grievances of Muslims worldwide are used to exploit identity-related grievances. Based on these findings, the paper argues that such evidence enhances our understanding of potential deradicalization pathways and present counter-narratives based on Islamic scripture.

Keywords: counter-narratives, foreign radicalization, identity grievances, propaganda analysis

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Authors: Jaballah Jamil

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KLD (Peter Kinder, Steve Lydenberg and Amy Domini) research & analytics is an independent intermediary of social performance information that adopts an investor-pay model. KLD rating agency does not have an explicit monitoring on the rated firm which suggests that KLD ratings may not include private informations. Moreover, the incapacity of KLD to predict accurately the extra-financial rating of Enron casts doubt on the reliability of KLD ratings. Therefore, we first investigate whether KLD ratings affect investors' perception by studying the effect of KLD rating changes on firms' financial performances. Second, we study the impact of the Enron scandal on investors' perception of KLD rating changes by comparing the effect of KLD rating changes on firms' financial performances before and after the failure of Enron. We propose an empirical study that relates a number of equally-weighted portfolios returns, excess stock returns and book-to-market ratio to different dimensions of KLD social responsibility ratings. We first find that over the last two decades KLD rating changes influence significantly and negatively stock returns and book-to-market ratio of rated firms. This finding suggests that a raise in corporate social responsibility rating lowers the firm's risk. Second, to assess the Enron scandal's effect on the perception of KLD ratings, we compare the effect of KLD rating changes before and after the Enron scandal. We find that after the Enron scandal this significant effect disappears. This finding supports the view that the Enron scandal annihilates the KLD's effect on Socially Responsible Investors. Therefore, our findings may question results of recent studies that use KLD ratings as a proxy for Corporate Social Responsibility behavior.

Keywords: KLD social rating agency, investors' perception, investment decision, financial performance

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Authors: Anne Gesare Timu, Megan Sheahan, Andrew Gache Mude, Rupsha Banerjee

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Women headed households are among the most vulnerable to negative climatic shocks and are often left poorer as a result. Credit provision has been recognized as one way of alleviating rural poverty and developing poor rural households’ resilience to shocks. Much has been documented about credit demand in small-holder agriculture settings in Kenya. However, little is known about demand for credit among pastoral women. This paper analyzes the determinants of demand for credit in the pastoral regions of Marsabit District of Northern Kenya. Using a five wave balanced panel data set of 820 households, a double hurdle model is employed to analyze if shocks, financial literacy and risk aversion affect credit demand among female and male headed households differently. The results show that borrowing goods on credit and monetary credit from informal market segments are the most common sources of credit in the study area. The impact of livestock loss and financial literacy on the decision to borrow and how much to borrow vary with gender. While the paper suggests that provision of credit is particularly valuable in the aftermath of a negative shock and more so for female-headed households, it also explores alternatives to the provision of credit where credit access is a constraint. It recommends further understanding of systems and institutions which could enhance access to credit, and particularly during times of stress, to enable households in the study area in particular and Northern Kenya in general to invest, engage in meaningful development and growth, and be resilient to persistent shocks.

Keywords: female headed households, pastoralism, rural financing, double hurdle model

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Authors: Devendra Gupta, Sushilk K. Agarwal, Amit Kesari, P. K. Singh

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Objectives: Pediatric patients often may experience persistent respiratory failure that requires tracheostomy placement in Pediatric ICU. We have designed a technique of tracheostomy in pediatric patients with S-shaped incision on the tracheal wall with higher success rate and lower complication rate. Technique: Following general anesthesia and positioning of the patient, the trachea was exposed in midline by a vertical skin incision. In order to make S-shaped tracheostoma, second tracheal ring was identified. The conventional vertical incision was made in second tracheal ring and then extended at both its ends laterally in the inter-cartilaginous space parallel to the tracheal cartilage in the opposite direction to make the incision S-shaped. The trachea was dilated with tracheal dilator and appropriate size of tracheostomy tube was then placed into the trachea. Results: S-shaped tracheostomy was performed in 20 children with mean age of 6.25 years (age range is 2-7) requiring tracheostomy placement. The tracheostomy tubes were successfully placed in all the patients in single attempt. There was no incidence of significant intra-operative bleeding, subcutaneous emphysema, vocal cord palsy or pneumothorax. Two patients developed pneumonia and expired within a year. However, there was no incidence of tracheo-esophageal fistula, suprastomal collapse or difficulty in decannulation on one year of follow up related to our technique. One patient developed late trachietis managed conservatively. Conclusion: S-shaped tracheoplasty was associated with high success rate, reduced risk of the early and late complications in pediatric patients requiring tracheostomy.

Keywords: peatrics, tracheostomy, ICU, tracheostoma

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Authors: Mamadou Dione, Eric Matzner-lober, Philippe Alexandre

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The Energy Transition Act defined by the French State has precise implications on Renewable Energies, in particular on its remuneration mechanism. Until then, a purchase obligation contract permitted the sale of wind-generated electricity at a fixed rate. Tomorrow, it will be necessary to sell this electricity on the Market (at variable rates) before obtaining additional compensation intended to reduce the risk. This sale on the market requires to announce in advance (about 48 hours before) the production that will be delivered on the network, so to be able to predict (in the short term) this production. The fundamental problem remains the variability of the Wind accentuated by the geographical situation. The objective of the project is to provide, every day, short-term forecasts (48-hour horizon) of wind production using weather data. The predictions of the GFS model and those of the ECMWF model are used as explanatory variables. The variable to be predicted is the production of a wind farm. We do two approaches: a direct approach that predicts wind generation directly from weather data, and an integrated approach that estimâtes wind from weather data and converts it into wind power by power curves. We used machine learning techniques to predict this production. The models tested are random forests, CART + Bagging, CART + Boosting, SVM (Support Vector Machine). The application is made on a wind farm of 22MW (11 wind turbines) of the Compagnie du Vent (that became Engie Green France). Our results are very conclusive compared to the literature.

Keywords: forecast aggregation, machine learning, spatio-temporal dynamics modeling, wind power forcast

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Authors: Mahboubeh Varmaziar

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Depression is a significant public health concern affecting people of all ages and genders. Physical activity has been shown to have a positive effect on mental health, particularly in alleviating symptoms of depression. This study aims to explore the impact of continuous exercise on depression levels among young female athletes in Hamadan Province, Iran. In this randomized controlled trial, 72 women aged 20 to 35 years attending sports centers in Hamadan Province were selected through convenient sampling and randomly assigned to either the control or experimental group. The experimental group participated in a continuous exercise program consisting of 20 sessions over six weeks, with each session lasting 30 minutes. In contrast, the control group maintained their usual daily activities at the sports center. Both groups completed demographic and Beck Depression Inventory questionnaires. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, including two-way ANOVA. The results of the two-way ANOVA, after controlling for the pre-test effect, revealed a significant difference in the mean depression scores between the control and experimental groups (p < 0.001). This suggests that the continuous exercise program significantly reduced depression levels in the young female athletes. The findings suggest that continuous exercise is an effective non-pharmacological intervention for reducing depression in young female athletes. Incorporating regular physical activity into treatment plans may serve as a complementary therapy alongside conventional treatments, offering a low-risk and beneficial approach to managing depression.

Keywords: depression, exercise, female athletes, yong women

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Authors: Anagha Pavithran Vattamparambil, Niranjana Regimon

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Dalit and tribal communities in India have the largest suicide rate; however, the current literature does not reflect this reality. While existing research acknowledges socio-cultural risk factors, it fails to discuss structural issues pertaining to marginalized communities in India. Furthermore, the language is framed in an individualistic manner which denies room for recognizing systemic violence and injustice among causative agents of suicide. We aim to examine the representation of Dalit and tribal identities and their experiences of marginalisation as a contributive factor of suicide, as well as discuss the epistemic injustice involved in its exclusion. Electronic searches of PubMed, PsychInfo, and Web of Science databases will be carried out from inception till January 2023 to conduct a systematic scoping review of peer-reviewed articles; it will include all studies involving psychological autopsy in India. A narrative synthesis will be performed to gain insight into the inclusion of the experiences of Dalits and Tribals, the absence of which indicates a lacking understanding of suicide in India. It is also expected to highlight the alienation of lived experiences and narratives of marginalisation from mainstream discourse on suicide that constitutes epistemic injustice. There is a complex interplay of psychological, socio-cultural, economic, and political factors for suicide in the Indian setting. But, political and systemic issues are often downplayed in suicide etiology, including casteist assault, rape, violence, public humiliation, and discrimination which deserves more research attention.

Keywords: dalits, marginalisation, psychological autopsy, suicide, tribals

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Authors: Repaul Kanji, Rajat Agrawal

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In this era where issues like climate change and disasters are the topics of discussion at national and international forums, it is very often that humanity questions the causative role of corporates in such events. It is beyond any doubt that rapid industrialisation and development has taken a toll in the form of climate change and even disasters, in some case. Thus, demanding to fulfill a corporate's responsibilities in the form of rescue and relief in times of disaster, rehabilitation and even mitigation and preparedness to adapt to the oncoming changes is obvious. But how can the responsibilities of the corporates be channelised to ensure all this, i.e., develop a resilient society? More than that, which factors, when emphasised upon, can lead to the holistic development of the society. To answer this query, an extensive literature review was done to identify several enablers like legislations of a nation, the role of brand and reputation, ease of doing Corporate Social Responsibility, mission and vision of an organisation, religion and culture, etc. as a tool for building disaster resilience. A questionnaire survey, interviews with experts and academicians followed by interpretive structural modelling (ISM) were used to construct a multi-hierarchy model depicting the contextual relationship among the identified enablers. The study revealed that culture and religion are the most powerful driver, which affects other enablers either directly or indirectly. Taking cognisance of the fact that an idea of separation between religion and workplace (business) resides subconsciously within the society, the study tries to interpret the outcome of the ISM through the lenses of past researches (The Integrating Box) and explores how it can be leveraged to build a resilient society.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, interpretive structural modelling, disaster resilience and risk reduction, the integration box (TIB)

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Authors: Vivian Correa

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Hypothesis There are typical patterns - phenotypes - of sleep behaviors by age and biological sex groups of parasomnia patients where wearable devices could avoid injuries. Materials and methods We analyzed public video records on sleep-related behaviors likely representing parasomnias, looking for phenotypes in different groups. We searched public internet databases using the keywords “sleepwalking”, “sleep eating,” “sleep sex”, and “aggression in sleep” in six languages. Poor-quality vide-records and those showing apparently faked sleep behaviors were excluded. We classified the videos into estimated sex and age (children, adults, elderly) groups; scored the activity types by a self-made scoring scale; and applied binary logistic regression for analyzing the association between sleep behaviors versus the groups by STATA package providing 95% confidence interval and the probability of statistical significance. Results 224 videos (102 women) were analyzed. The odds of sleepwalking and related dangerous behaviors were lower in the elderly than in adults (P<0.025). Females performed complex risky behaviors during sleepwalking more often than males (P<0.012). Elderly people presented emotional behaviors less frequently than adults (P<0.004), and females showed them twice often as males. Elderly males had 40-fold odds compared to adults and children to perform aggressive movements and 70-fold odds of complex movements in the bed compared to adults. Conclusion Unlike other groups, the high chances of adults being sleepwalkers and elderly males performing intense and violent movements in bed showed us the importance of developing wearable parasomnia devices to prevent injuries.

Keywords: parasomnia, wearable devices, sleepwalking, RBD

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Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Hussain Hamid

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Over the last few decades an upward trend has been observed in the case of labor migration from Pakistan. The emigrants are not just economically motivated and in search of a safe living environment towards more developed countries in Europe, North America and Middle East. The opportunity cost of migration comes in the form of brain drain that is the loss of qualified and skilled human capital. Throughout the history of Pakistan, situations of political instability have emerged ranging from violation of political rights, political disappearances to political assassinations. Providing security to the citizens is a major issue faced in Pakistan due to increase in crime and terrorist activities. The aim of the study is to test the impact of political instability, appearing in the form of political terror, violation of political rights and civil liberty on skilled migration of labor. Three proxies are used to measure the political instability; political terror scale (based on a scale of 1-5, the political terror and violence that a country encounters in a particular year), political rights (a rating of 1-7, that describes political rights as the ability for the people to participate without restraint in political process) and civil liberty (a rating of 1-7, civil liberty is defined as the freedom of expression and rights without government intervention). Using time series data from 1980-2011, the distributed lag models were used for estimation because migration is not a onetime process, previous events and migration can lead to more migration. Our research clearly shows that political instability appearing in the form of political terror, political rights and civil liberty all appeared significant in explaining the extent of skilled migration of Pakistan.

Keywords: skilled labor migration, political terror, political rights, civil liberty, distributed lag model

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Authors: Raed Alsufyani, Hissam Tawfik, Victor Chang, Muthu Ramachandran

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This study investigates the factors that influence the decision by players in the healthcare sector to embrace Cloud Business Intelligence Technology with a focus on healthcare organizations in Saudi Arabia. To bring this matter into perspective, this study primarily considers the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework and the Human Organization-Technology (HOT) fit model. A survey was hypothetically designed based on literature review and was carried out online. Quantitative data obtained was processed from descriptive and one-way frequency statistics to inferential and regression analysis. Data were analysed to establish factors that influence the decision to adopt Cloud Business intelligence technology in the healthcare sector. The implication of the identified factors was measured, and all assumptions were tested. 66.70% of participants in healthcare organization backed the intention to adopt cloud business intelligence system. 99.4% of these participants considered security concerns and privacy risk have been the most significant factors in the adoption of cloud Business Intelligence (CBI) system. Through regression analysis hypothesis testing point that usefulness, service quality, relative advantage, IT infrastructure preparedness, organization structure; vendor support, perceived technical competence, government support, and top management support positively and significantly influence the adoption of (CBI) system. The paper presents quantitative phase that is a part of an on-going project. The project will be based on the consequences learned from this study.

Keywords: cloud computing, business intelligence, HOT-fit model, TOE, healthcare and innovation adoption

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Authors: O. H. Gebril, N. A. Meguid

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Background: Iron had been a focus of interest recently as a main exaggerating factor for oxidative stresses in the central nervous system and a link to various neurological disorders is suspected. Many studies with various techniques showed evidence of disturbed iron-related proteins in the cell in human and animal models of neurodegenerative disorders. Also, linkage to significant pathological changes had been evidenced e.g. apoptosis and cell signaling. On the other hand, the role of iron in neurodevelopmental disorders is still unclear. With increasing prevalence of autism worldwide, some changes in iron parameters and its stores were documented in many studies. This study includes Haemochromatosis HFE gene polymorphisms (p.H63D and p.C282Y) and ferroportin gene (SLC40A1) Q248H polymorphism in autism and control children. Materials and Methods: Whole genome DNA was extracted; p.H63D and p.C282Y genotyping was studied using specific sequence amplification followed by restriction enzyme digestion on a sample of autism patients (25 cases) and twenty controls. Results: The p.H63D is seen more than the C282Y among both autism and control samples, with no significant association of p.H63D or p.C282Y polymorphism and autism was revealed. Also, no association with Q248H polymorphism was evidenced. Conclusion: The study results do not prove the role of cellular iron genes polymorphisms as risk factors for neurodevelopmental disorders, and in turn highlights the specificity of cellular iron related pathways in neurodegeneration. These results demand further gene expression studies to elucidate the main pathophysiological pathways that are disturbed in autism and other neurodevelopmental disorders.

Keywords: iron, neurodevelopmental, oxidative stress, haemohromatosis, ferroportin, genes

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Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Muhammad Muzaffar Abbas

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Conflicts in Pakistan are a result of a configuration of factors, which are directly related to the system of the state, the unstable regional setting, and the geo-strategic location of Pakistan at large. This paper examines the impact of regional conflict onto the socio-political sustainability of Pakistan. The magnitude of the spillover from a conflicted region is similar in size of the equivalent increase in domestic conflict. Pakistan has gone at war three times with India; the border with India is named as the tensest borderlines of the world. Disagreements with India and lack of dispute settlement mechanisms have negatively effected the peace in the region, influx of illegal weapons and refugees from Afghanistan as an outcome of 9/11 incidence, have exasperated the criticality of levels of internal conflict in Pakistan. Our empirical findings are based on the data collected on regional conflict levels, regional trade, global trade, comparative defence capabilities of the region in contrast to Pakistan and the government regime (Autocratic, Democratic) over 1972-2007. It has been proposed in this paper that the intent of domestic conflict is associated with the conflict in the region, regional trade, global trade and the government regime of Pakistan. The estimated model (OLS) implies that domestic conflict is effected positively and significantly with long term impact of conflict in the region. Also, if defence capabilities of the region are better than that of Pakistan it effects domestic conflict positively and significantly. Conflict in neighbouring countries are found as a source of domestic conflict in Pakistan, whereas the regional trade as well as type of government regimes in Pakistan lowered the intensity of domestic conflict significantly, while globalized trade imply risk of domestic conflict to be reduced but not significantly.

Keywords: conflict, regional trade, socio-politcal instability

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Authors: A. F. Momin, D. V. Khakhar

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Granular materials consist of particulate particles found in nature and various industries that, due to gravity flow, behave macroscopically like liquids. A fundamental industrial unit operation is a hopper with inclined walls or a converging channel in which material flows downward under gravity and exits the storage bin through the bottom outlet. The simplest form of the flow corresponds to a wedge-shaped, quasi-two-dimensional geometry with smooth walls and radially directed gravitational force toward the apex of the wedge. These flows were examined using the Mohr-Coulomb criterion in the classic work of Savage (1965), while Ravi Prakash and Rao used the critical state theory (1988). The smooth-wall radial gravity (SWRG) wedge-shaped hopper is simulated using the discrete element method (DEM) to test existing theories. DEM simulations involve the solution of Newton's equations, taking particle-particle interactions into account to compute stress and velocity fields for the flow in the SWRG system. Our computational results are consistent with the predictions of Savage (1965) and Ravi Prakash and Rao (1988), except for the region near the exit, where both viscous and frictional effects are present. To further comprehend this behaviour, a parametric analysis is carried out to analyze the rheology of wedge-shaped hoppers by varying the orifice diameter, wedge angle, friction coefficient, and stiffness. The conclusion is that velocity increases as the flow rate increases but decreases as the wedge angle and friction coefficient increase. We observed no substantial changes in velocity due to varying stiffness. It is anticipated that stresses at the exit result from the transfer of momentum during particle collisions; for this reason, relationships between viscosity and shear rate are shown, and all data are collapsed into a single curve. In addition, it is demonstrated that viscosity and volume fraction exhibit power law correlations with the inertial number and that all the data collapse into a single curve. A continuum model for determining granular flows is presented using empirical correlations.

Keywords: discrete element method, gravity flow, smooth-wall, wedge-shaped hoppers

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Authors: Chun-Qing Li, Guoyang Fu, Wei Yang

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A significant portion of current water networks is made of cast iron pipes. Due to aging and deterioration with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism, the failure rate of cast iron pipes is very high. Although considerable research has been carried out in the past few decades, most are on the effect of corrosion on the structural capacity of pipes using strength theory as the failure criterion. This paper presents a reliability-based methodology for the assessment of corrosion affected cast iron pipe cracking failures. A nonlinear limit state function taking into account all three fracture modes is proposed for brittle metal pipes with mixed mode fracture. A stochastic model of the load effect is developed, and time-dependent reliability method is employed to quantify the probability of failure and predict the remaining service life. A case study is carried out using the proposed methodology, followed by sensitivity analysis to investigate the effects of the random variables on the probability of failure. It has been found that the larger the inclination angle or the Mode I fracture toughness is, the smaller the probability of pipe failure is. It has also been found that the multiplying and exponential coefficients k and n in the power law corrosion model and the internal pressure have the most influence on the probability of failure for cast iron pipes. The methodology presented in this paper can assist pipe engineers and asset managers in developing a risk-informed and cost-effective strategy for better management of corrosion-affected pipelines.

Keywords: corrosion, inclined surface cracks, pressurized cast iron pipes, stress intensity

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Authors: Samir Malhotra, Rajan K. Khandotra, Rakesh K. Dhiman, Neelam Chadha

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There is paucity of data about safety and efficacy of probiotic treatment on patient outcomes in cirrhosis. Specifically, it is important to know whether probiotics can improve mortality, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), number of hospitalizations, ammonia levels, quality of life, and adverse events. Probiotics may improve outcomes in patients with acute or chronic HE. However, it is also important to know whether probiotics can prevent development of HE, even in situations where patients do not have acute HE at the time of administration. It is also important to know if probiotics are useful as primary prophylaxis of HE. We aimed to conduct an updated systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the safety and efficacy of probiotics in patients with cirrhosis. We searched PubMed, Cochrane library, Embase, Scopus, SCI, Google Scholar, conference proceedings, and references of included studies till June 2017 to identify randomised clinical trials comparing probiotics with other treatments in cirrhotics. Data was analyzed using MedCalc. Probiotics had no effect on mortality but significantly reduced HE (14 trials, 1073 patients, OR 0.371; 95% CI 0.282 to 0.489). There was not enough data to conduct a meta-analysis on outcomes like hospitalizations and quality of life. The effect on plasma ammonia levels was not significant (SMD -0.429; 95%CI -1.034 – 0.177). There was no difference in adverse events. To conclude, although the included studies had a high risk of bias, the available evidence does suggest a beneficial effect on HE. Larger studies with longer periods of follow-up are needed to determine if probiotics can reduce all-cause mortality.

Keywords: cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy, meta-analysis, probiotic

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Authors: Giuseppe Timperio, Robert De Souza

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The combination of factors such as temperamental climate change, rampant urbanization of risk exposed areas, political and social instabilities, is posing an alarming base for the further growth of number and magnitude of humanitarian crises worldwide. Given the unique features of humanitarian supply chain such as unpredictability of demand in space, time, and geography, spike in the number of requests for relief items in the first days after the calamity, uncertain state of logistics infrastructures, large volumes of unsolicited low-priority items, a proactive approach towards design of disaster response operations is needed to achieve high agility in mobilization of emergency supplies in the immediate aftermath of the event. This paper is an attempt in that direction, and it provides decision makers with crucial strategic insights for a more effective network design for disaster response. Decision sciences and ICT are integrated to analyse the robustness and resilience of a prepositioned network of emergency strategic stockpiles for a real-life case about Indonesia, one of the most vulnerable countries in Asia-Pacific, with the model being built upon a rich set of quantitative data. At this aim, a network optimization approach was implemented, with several what-if scenarios being accurately developed and tested. Findings of this study are able to support decision makers facing challenges related with disaster relief chains resilience, particularly about optimal configuration of supply chain facilities and optimal flows across the nodes, while considering the network structure from an end-to-end in-country distribution perspective.

Keywords: disaster preparedness, humanitarian logistics, network optimization, resilience

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Authors: Muhammad Faisal, Zai-Jin You, Muhammad Naeem

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Concerns about the environment, public health, and the economy are raised by the fact that the world produces around 6 trillion cigarettes annually. Arguably the most pervasive forms of environmental litter, this dangerous trash must be eliminated. The researchers wanted to get an idea of how much pollution is seeping out of cigarette butts in metropolitan areas by studying their distribution and concentration. In order to accomplish this goal, the cigarette butt pollution indicator was applied in 29 different areas. The locations were monitored monthly for a full calendar year. The conditions for conducting the investigation of the venues were the same on both weekends and during the weekdays. By averaging the metal leakage ratio in various climates and the average weight of cigarette butts, we were able to estimate the total amount of heavy metal leakage. The findings revealed that the annual average value of the index for the areas that were investigated ranged from 1.38 to 10.4. According to these numbers, just 27.5% of the areas had a low pollution rating, while 43.5% had a major pollution status or worse. Weekends witnessed the largest fall (31% on average) in all locations' indices, while spring and summer saw the largest increase (26% on average) compared to autumn and winter. It was calculated that the average amount of heavy metals such as Cr, Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb that seep into the environment from discarded cigarette butts in commercial, residential, and park areas, respectively, is 0.25 µg/m2, 0.078 µg/m2, and 0.18 µg/m2. Butt from cigarettes is one of the most prevalent forms of litter in the area that was examined. This litter is the origin of a wide variety of contaminants, including heavy metals. This toxic garbage poses a significant risk to the city.

Keywords: heavy metal, hazardous waste, waste management, litter

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Authors: Anish Desai, Reshmi Pillai, Nilesh Mahajan, Hitesh Chopra, Vishal Mahajan, Ajay Grover, Ashish Kohli

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Surgical Site Infection (SSI) is hospital acquired infection of growing concern. This study presents the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of triclosan-coated suture, in reducing the burden of SSI in India. Methodology: A systematic literature search was conducted for economic burden (1998-2018) of SSI and efficacy of triclosan-coated sutures (TCS) vs. non-coated sutures (NCS) (2000-2018). PubMed Medline and EMBASE indexed articles were searched using Mesh terms or Emtree. Decision tree analysis was used to calculate, the cost difference between TCS and NCS at private and public hospitals, respectively for 7 surgical procedures. Results: The SSI range from low to high for Caesarean section (C-section), Laparoscopic hysterectomy (L-hysterectomy), Open Hernia (O-Hernia), Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy (L-Cholecystectomy), Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), Total knee replacement (TKR), and Mastectomy were (3.77 to 24.2%), (2.28 to 11.7%), (1.75 to 60%), (1.71 to 25.58%), (1.6 to 18.86%), (1.74 to 12.5%), and (5.56 to 25%), respectively. The incremental cost (%) of TCS ranged 0.1%-0.01% in private and from 0.9%-0.09% at public hospitals across all surgical procedures. Cost savings at median efficacy & SSI risk was 6.52%, 5.07 %, 11.39%, 9.63%, 3.62%, 2.71%, 9.41% for C-section, L-hysterectomy, O-Hernia, L-Cholecystectomy, CABG, TKR, and Mastectomy in private and 8.79%, 4.99%, 12.67%, 10.58%, 3.32%, 2.35%, 11.83% in public hospital, respectively. Efficacy of TCS and SSI incidence in a particular surgical procedure were important determinants of cost savings using one-way sensitivity analysis. Conclusion: TCS suture led to cost savings across all 7 surgeries in both private and public hospitals in India.

Keywords: cost Savings, non-coated sutures, surgical site infection, triclosan-coated sutures

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Authors: Fares Mahdi

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Background: Infection control is an important concern for all health care professionals, especially nurses. Nurses have a higher risk for both self-acquiring and transmitting infections to other patients. Aim of this study: to assess nurses' knowledge regarding infection control for wound care. Methodology: a descriptive research design was used in the study. The total number studied sample was 200 nurses, were conducting in Amran Public Hospitals in Amran City- Yemen. The study covered sample nurses in the hospital according to the study population; a standard closed-ended questionnaire was used to collect the data. Results: The results showed less than half (37.5 %) of nurses were from 22 May Hospital, also followed by (62.5%) of them were from Maternal and Child Hospital. Also according to the department name. Most (22.5%) of nurses worked in an intensive care unit, followed by (20%) of them were working in the pediatric world, also about (19%) of them were working in the surgical department. While in finally, only about (8.5%) of them worked from another department. According to course training, The results showed about (21%) of nurses had course training in wound care management. At the same time, others (79%) of them have not had course training in wound care management. According to the total nurse's knowledge of infection control for wound care, that find more than two-thirds (68%) of nurses had fair knowledge according to total all of nurse's knowledge of infection control wound care. Conclusion:The results showed that more than two-thirds (68%) of nurses had fair knowledge according to total all of the nurse's knowledge of infection control for wound care. Recommendations: There should be providing training program about infection control masseurs and it's important for new employees of nurses. Providing continuing refreshment training courses about infection control programs and about evidence-based practice in infection control for all health care teams.

Keywords: assessment, knowledge, infection control, wound care, nurses, amran hospitals

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Authors: Minna K. Miller, Chantel. E. Canessa, Suzanna V. McRae, Susan Shumay, Alissa Collingridge

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Primary care provides the first point of contact and access to health care services. For the pediatric population, the goal is to help healthy children stay healthy and to help those that are sick get better. Primary care facilitates regular well baby/child visits; health promotion and disease prevention; investigation, diagnosis and management of acute and chronic illnesses; health education; both consultation and collaboration with, and referral to other health care professionals. There is a protective association between regular well-child visit care and preventable hospitalization. Further, low adherence to well-child care and poor continuity of care are independently associated with increased risk of hospitalization. With a declining number of family physicians caring for children, and only a portion of pediatricians providing primary care services, it is becoming increasingly difficult for children and their families to access primary care. Nurse practitioners are in a unique position to improve access to primary care and improve health outcomes for children. Limited literature is available on the nurse practitioner role in primary care pediatrics. The purpose of this paper is to describe the development, implementation and evaluation of a Nurse Practitioner-led pediatric primary care clinic in a tertiary care setting. Utilizing the participatory, evidence-based, patient-focused process for advanced practice nursing (PEPPA framework), this paper highlights the results of the initial needs assessment/gap analysis, the new service delivery model, populations served, and outcome measures.

Keywords: access, health outcomes, nurse practitioner, pediatric primary care, PEPPA framework

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Authors: Dinesh Kumar Sharma, Sanjay Sharma

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Textile manufacturing industry uses a substantial amount of chemicals not only in the production processes but also in manufacturing the raw materials. Dyes are the most significant raw material which provides colour to the fabric and yarn. Dyes are produced by using a large amount of chemicals both organic and inorganic in nature. Dyes are further classified as Reactive or Vat Dyes which are mostly used in cotton textiles. In the process of application of dyes to the cotton fiber, yarn or fabric, several auxiliary chemicals are also used in the solution called dyebath to improve the absorption of dyes. There is a very little absorption of dyes and auxiliary chemicals and a residual amount of all these substances is released as the spent dye bath effluent. Because of the wide variety of chemicals used in cotton textile dyes, there is always a risk of harmful effects which may not be apparent immediately but may have an irreversible impact in the long term. Colour imparted by the dyes to the water also has an adverse effect on its public acceptability and the potability. This study has been conducted with an objective to assess the feasibility of reuse of the spent dye bath. Studies have been conducted in two independent industries manufacturing dyed cotton yarn and dyed cotton fabric respectively. These have been referred as Unit-I and Unit-II. The studies included assessment of reduction in pollution levels and the economic benefits of such reuse. The study conclusively establishes that the reuse of spent dyebath results in prevention of pollution, reduction in pollution loads and cost of effluent treatment & production. This pollution prevention technique presents a good preposition for pollution prevention in cotton textile industry.

Keywords: dyes, dyebath, reuse, toxic, pollution, costs

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Authors: Nur Hidayah Kaz Abdul Aziz, Norhalida Hashim, Zurina Hassan

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Peripartum period is a time where women are vulnerable to depression, and stress may further increase the risk of its occurrence. Use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) in the treatment of postpartum depression is a common practice. Comparison of antidepressant treatment, however, is rarely studied between gestated and nulliparous animals exposed to stress. This study was aimed to investigate the effect of parity and stress, as well as fluoxetine (an SSRI) treatment after stress exposure on the behavior of rats. Gestating and nulliparous Sprague Dawley rats were either subjected to chronic stressors or left undisturbed throughout the gestation period. After parturition, all stressors were stopped and some of the stressed rats were treated with fluoxetine (10mg/kg). Hence, the final groups formed were: 1. Non-stressed nulliparous rats, 2. Non-stressed dams, 3. Stressed nulliparous rats, 4. Stressed dams, 5. Fluoxetine-treated stressed nulliparous rats, and 6. Fluoxetine-treated stressed dams. Rats were tested in open field test (OFT), novel object recognition test (NOR) and forced swim test (FST) after weaning of pups. Gestational stress significantly reduced the locomotor activity of rats in OFT (p<0.05), while fluoxetine significantly increased the activity in nulliparous rats (p<0.001) but not the dams. While no differences were observed in NOR, stress and parity inhibited the rats from performing swimming behavior in FST. However, climbing and immobile behaviors in FST were found to have no significant differences, although there is a tendency of effect of treatment for immobility parameter (p=0.06) where fluoxetine-treated stressed dams were being the least immobile. In conclusion, the effects of parity and stress, as well as fluoxetine treatment, depended on the type of behavioral test performed.

Keywords: stress, parity, SSRI, behavioral tests

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Authors: Yangzhi Li

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Network transfer of information and performance customization is now a viable method of digital industrial production in the era of Industry 4.0. Robot platforms and network platforms have grown more important in digital design and construction. The pressing need for novel building techniques is driven by the growing labor scarcity problem and increased awareness of construction safety. Robotic approaches in construction research are regarded as an extension of operational and production tools. Several technological theories related to robot autonomous recognition, which include high-performance computing, physical system modeling, extensive sensor coordination, and dataset deep learning, have not been explored using intelligent construction. Relevant transdisciplinary theory and practice research still has specific gaps. Optimizing high-performance computing and autonomous recognition visual guidance technologies improves the robot's grasp of the scene and capacity for autonomous operation. Intelligent vision guidance technology for industrial robots has a serious issue with camera calibration, and the use of intelligent visual guiding and identification technologies for industrial robots in industrial production has strict accuracy requirements. It can be considered that visual recognition systems have challenges with precision issues. In such a situation, it will directly impact the effectiveness and standard of industrial production, necessitating a strengthening of the visual guiding study on positioning precision in recognition technology. To best facilitate the handling of complicated components, an approach for the visual recognition of parts utilizing machine learning algorithms is proposed. This study will identify the position of target components by detecting the information at the boundary and corner of a dense point cloud and determining the aspect ratio in accordance with the guidelines for the modularization of building components. To collect and use components, operational processing systems assign them to the same coordinate system based on their locations and postures. The RGB image's inclination detection and the depth image's verification will be used to determine the component's present posture. Finally, a virtual environment model for the robot's obstacle-avoidance route will be constructed using the point cloud information.

Keywords: robotic construction, robotic assembly, visual guidance, machine learning

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Authors: Daniel Bülz, Franziska Lüttich, Sreetama Banerjee, Georgeta Salvan, Dietrich R. T. Zahn

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For the development of electronics, organic semiconductors are of great interest due to their adjustable optical and electrical properties. Especially for spintronic applications they are interesting because of their weak spin scattering, which leads to longer spin life times compared to inorganic semiconductors. It was shown that some organic materials change their resistance if an external magnetic field is applied. Pentacene is one of the materials which exhibit the so called photoinduced magnetoresistance which results in a modulation of photocurrent when varying the external magnetic field. Also the soluble derivate of pentacene, the 6,13-bis (triisopropylsilylethynyl)-pentacene (TIPS-pentacene) exhibits the same negative magnetoresistance. Aiming for simpler fabrication processes, in this work, we compare TIPS-pentacene organic field effect transistors (OFETs) made from solution with those fabricated by thermal evaporation. Because of the different processing, the TIPS-pentacene thin films exhibit different morphologies in terms of crystal size and homogeneity of the substrate coverage. On the other hand, the interface treatment is known to have a high influence on the threshold voltage, eliminating trap states of silicon oxide at the gate electrode and thereby changing the electrical switching response of the transistors. Therefore, we investigate the influence of interface treatment using octadecyltrichlorosilane (OTS) or using a simple cleaning procedure with acetone, ethanol, and deionized water. The transistors consist of a prestructured OFET substrates including gate, source, and drain electrodes, on top of which TIPS-pentacene dissolved in a mixture of tetralin and toluene is deposited by drop-, spray-, and spin-coating. Thereafter we keep the sample for one hour at a temperature of 60 °C. For the transistor fabrication by thermal evaporation the prestructured OFET substrates are also kept at a temperature of 60 °C during deposition with a rate of 0.3 nm/min and at a pressure below 10-6 mbar. The OFETs are characterized by means of optical microscopy in order to determine the overall quality of the sample, i.e. crystal size and coverage of the channel region. The output and transfer characteristics are measured in the dark and under illumination provided by a white light LED in the spectral range from 450 nm to 650 nm with a power density of (8±2) mW/cm2.

Keywords: organic field effect transistors, solution processed, surface treatment, TIPS-pentacene

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