Search results for: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Authors: Samuel O. Alamu, Seong W. Lee, Blaise Kalmia, Marc J. Louise Caballes, Xuejun Qian

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The application of combustion technologies for thermal conversion of biomass and solid wastes to energy has been a major solution to the effective handling of wastes over a long period of time. Lab-scale biomass combustion systems have been observed to be economically viable and socially acceptable, but major concerns are the environmental impacts of the process and deviation of temperature distribution within the combustion chamber. Both high and low combustion chamber temperature may affect the overall combustion efficiency and gaseous emissions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a control system which measures the deviations of chamber temperature from set target values, sends these deviations (which generates disturbances in the system) in the form of feedback signal (as input), and control operating conditions for correcting the errors. In this research study, major components of the feedback control system were determined, assembled, and tested. In addition, control algorithms were developed to actuate operating conditions (e.g., air velocity, fuel feeding rate) using ladder logic functions embedded in the Programmable Logic Controller (PLC). The developed control algorithm having chamber temperature as a feedback signal is integrated into the lab-scale swirling fluidized bed combustor (SFBC) to investigate the temperature distribution at different heights of the combustion chamber based on various operating conditions. The air blower rates and the fuel feeding rates obtained from automatic control operations were correlated with manual inputs. There was no observable difference in the correlated results, thus indicating that the written PLC program functions were adequate in designing the experimental study of the lab-scale SFBC. The experimental results were analyzed to study the effect of air velocity operating at 222-273 ft/min and fuel feeding rate of 60-90 rpm on the chamber temperature. The developed temperature-based feedback control system was shown to be adequate in controlling the airflow and the fuel feeding rate for the overall biomass combustion process as it helps to minimize the steady-state error.

Keywords: air flow, biomass combustion, feedback control signal, fuel feeding, ladder logic, programmable logic controller, temperature

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Authors: Samar Mousa, Galini Mavromatidou, Rebecca Shirley

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Surgeons carry out numerous operations in the busy burns and plastic surgery department daily. Writing an accurate operation note with all the essential information is crucial for communication not only within the plastics team but also to the multi-disciplinary team looking after the patient, including other specialties, nurses and GPs. The Royal college of surgeons of England, in its guidelines of good surgical practice, mentioned that the surgeon should ensure that there are clear (preferably typed) operative notes for every procedure. The notes should accompany the patient into recovery and to the ward and should give sufficient detail to enable continuity of care by another doctor. The notes should include the Date and time, Elective/emergency procedure, Names of the operating surgeon and assistant, Name of the theatre anesthetist, Operative procedure carried out, Incision, Operative diagnosis, Operative findings, Any problems/complications, Any extra procedure performed and the reason why it was performed, Details of tissue removed, added or altered, Identification of any prosthesis used, including the serial numbers of prostheses and other implanted materials, Details of closure technique, Anticipated blood loss, Antibiotic prophylaxis (where applicable), DVT prophylaxis (where applicable), Detailed postoperative care instructions and Signature. Fourteen random days were chosen in December 2021 to assess the accuracy of operative notes and post-operative care. A total of 163 operative notes were examined. The average completion rates in all domains were 85.4%. An electronic operative note template was designed to cover all domains mentioned in the Royal College of surgeons' good surgical practice. It is kept in the hospital drive for all surgeons to use.

Keywords: operative notes, plastic surgery, documentation, electronic

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Authors: Martins Y. Otache, John J. Musa, Abayomi I. Kuti, Mustapha Mohammed

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The performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) is contingent on a host of factors, for instance, the network optimisation scheme. In view of this, the study examined the general implications of the ANN training optimisation algorithm on its forecast performance. To this end, the Bayesian regularisation (Br), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and the adaptive learning gradient descent: GDM (with momentum) algorithms were employed under different ANN structural configurations: (1) single-hidden layer, and (2) double-hidden layer feedforward back propagation network. Results obtained revealed generally that the gradient descent with momentum (GDM) optimisation algorithm, with its adaptive learning capability, used a relatively shorter time in both training and validation phases as compared to the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularisation (Br) algorithms though learning may not be consummated; i.e., in all instances considering also the prediction of extreme flow conditions for 1-day and 5-day ahead, respectively especially using the ANN model. In specific statistical terms on the average, model performance efficiency using the coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistic were Br: 98%, 94%; LM: 98 %, 95 %, and GDM: 96 %, 96% respectively for training and validation phases. However, on the basis of relative error distribution statistics (MAE, MAPE, and MSRE), GDM performed better than the others overall. Based on the findings, it is imperative to state that the adoption of ANN for real-time forecasting should employ training algorithms that do not have computational overhead like the case of LM that requires the computation of the Hessian matrix, protracted time, and sensitivity to initial conditions; to this end, Br and other forms of the gradient descent with momentum should be adopted considering overall time expenditure and quality of the forecast as well as mitigation of network overfitting. On the whole, it is recommended that evaluation should consider implications of (i) data quality and quantity and (ii) transfer functions on the overall network forecast performance.

Keywords: streamflow, neural network, optimisation, algorithm

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Authors: Bushra Zafar, Usman Qamar

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Large data sample size and dimensions render the effectiveness of conventional data mining methodologies. A data mining technique are important tools for collection of knowledgeable information from variety of databases and provides supervised learning in the form of classification to design models to describe vital data classes while structure of the classifier is based on class attribute. Classification efficiency and accuracy are often influenced to great extent by noisy and undesirable features in real application data sets. The inherent natures of data set greatly masks its quality analysis and leave us with quite few practical approaches to use. To our knowledge first time, we present a new approach for investigation of structure and quality of datasets by providing a targeted analysis of localization of noisy and irrelevant features of data sets. Machine learning is based primarily on feature selection as pre-processing step which offers us to select few features from number of features as a subset by reducing the space according to certain evaluation criterion. The primary objective of this study is to trim down the scope of the given data sample by searching a small set of important features which may results into good classification performance. For this purpose, a heuristic for wrapper-based feature selection using genetic algorithm and for discriminative feature selection an external classifier are used. Selection of feature based on its number of occurrence in the chosen chromosomes. Sample dataset has been used to demonstrate proposed idea effectively. A proposed method has improved average accuracy of different datasets is about 95%. Experimental results illustrate that proposed algorithm increases the accuracy of prediction of different diseases.

Keywords: data mining, generic algorithm, KNN algorithms, wrapper based feature selection

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Authors: Mazwane S., Makhura M. N., Ginege A.

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Digitalization in South Africa has received considerable attention from policymakers. The support for the development of the digital economy by the South African government has been demonstrated through the enactment of various national policies and strategies. This study sought to develop an index for agricultural digitalization by applying composite confirmatory analysis (CCA). Another aim was to determine the factors that affect the development of digitalization in PLAS farms. Data on the indicators of the three dimensions of digitalization were collected from 300 Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy (PLAS) farms in South Africa using semi-structured questionnaires. Confirmatory composite analysis (CCA) was employed to reduce the items into three digitalization dimensions and ultimately to a digitalization index. Standardized digitalization index scores were extracted and fitted to a linear regression model to determine the factors affecting digitalization development. The results revealed that the model shows practical validity and can be used to measure digitalization development as measures of fit (geodesic distance, standardized root mean square residual, and squared Euclidean distance) were all below their respective 95%quantiles of bootstrap discrepancies (HI95 values). Therefore, digitalization is an emergent variable that can be measured using CCA. The average level of digitalization in PLAS farms was 0.2 and varied significantly across provinces. The factors that significantly influence digitalization development in PLAS land reform farms were age, gender, farm type, network type, and cellular data type. This should enable researchers and policymakers to understand the level of digitalization and patterns of development, as well as correctly attribute digitalization development to the contributing factors.

Keywords: agriculture, digitalization, confirmatory composite model, land reform, proactive land acquisition strategy, South Africa

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Authors: Ayse Ozbil, Gorsev Argin, Demet Yesiltepe

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Data for this cross-sectional study were drawn from questionnaires conducted in 10 elementary schools (1000 students, ages 12-14) located in Istanbul, Turkey. School environments (1600 meter buffers around the school) were evaluated through GIS-based land-use data (parcel level land use density) and street-level topography. Street networks within the same buffers were evaluated by using angular segment analysis (Integration and Choice) implemented in Depthmap as well as two segment-based connectivity measures, namely Metric and Directional Reach implemented in GIS. Segment Angular Integration measures how accessible each space from all the others within the radius using the least angle measure of distance. Segment Angular Choice which measures how many times a space is selected on journeys between all pairs of origins and destinations. Metric Reach captures the density of streets and street connections accessible from each individual road segment. Directional Reach measures the extent to which the entire street network is accessible with few direction changes. In addition, socio-economic characteristics (annual income, car ownership, education-level) of parents, obtained from parental questionnaires, were also included in the analysis. It is shown that surrounding street network configuration is strongly associated with both walk-mode shares and average walking distances to/from schools when controlling for parental socio-demographic attributes as well as land-use compositions and topographic features in school environments. More specifically, findings suggest that the scale at which urban form has an impact on pedestrian travel is considerably larger than a few blocks around the school.

Keywords: Istanbul, street network layout, urban form, walking to/from school

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Authors: Ayten Bakhtiyar Khasayeva

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Lower Kura depression is a part of the South Caspian Basin (SCB), located between the folded regions of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus. The region is characterized by thick sedimentary cover 22 km (SCB up to 30 km), high sedimentation rate, low geothermal gradient (average value corresponds to 2 °C / 100m). There is Quaternary, Pliocene, Miocene and Oligocene deposits take part in geological structure. Miocene and Oligocene deposits are opened by prospecting and exploratory wells in the areas of Kalamaddin and Garabagli. There are 25 mud volcanoes within the territory of the Lower Kura depression, which are the unique source of information about hydrocarbons contenting great depths. During the wells data research, solid erupted products and mud volcano fluids, and according to the geological and thermal characteristics of the region, it was determined that the main phase of the hydrocarbon generation (MK1-AK2) corresponds to a wide range of depths from 10 to 14 km, which corresponds to the Pliocene-Miocene sediments, and to the "oil and gas windows" according to the intended meaning of R0 ≈ 0,65-0,85%. Fluids of mud volcanoes comprise by the following phases - gas, water. Gas phase consists mainly of methane (99%) of heavy hydrocarbons (С2+ hydrocarbons), CO2, N2, inert components He, Ar. The content of the С2+ hydrocarbons in the gases of mud volcanoes associated with oil deposits is increased. Carbon isotopic composition of methane for the Lower Kura depression varies from -40 ‰ to -60 ‰. Water of mud volcanoes are represented by all four genetic types. However the most typical types of water are HCN type. According to the Mg-Li geothermometer formation of mud waters corresponds to the temperature range from 20 °C to 140 °C (PC2). The solid product emissions of mud volcanoes identified 90 minerals and 30 trace elements. As a result geochemical investigation, thermobaric and geological conditions, zone oil and gas generation - the prospect of the Lower Kura depression is projected to depths greater than 10 km.

Keywords: geology, geochemistry, mud volcanoes, petroleum potential

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Authors: Svetlana Cojocaru, Mircea Petic, Inga Titchiev

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Humanity faces more and more often with different social disasters, which in turn can generate new accidents and catastrophes. To mitigate their consequences, it is important to obtain early possible signals about the events which are or can occur and to prepare the corresponding scenarios that could be applied. Our research is focused on solving two problems in this domain: identifying signals related that an accident occurred or may occur and mitigation of some consequences of disasters. To solve the first problem, methods of selecting and processing texts from global network Internet are developed. Information in Romanian is of special interest for us. In order to obtain the mentioned tools, we should follow several steps, divided into preparatory stage and processing stage. Throughout the first stage, we manually collected over 724 news articles and classified them into 10 categories of social disasters. It constitutes more than 150 thousand words. Using this information, a controlled vocabulary of more than 300 keywords was elaborated, that will help in the process of classification and identification of the texts related to the field of social disasters. To solve the second problem, the formalism of Petri net has been used. We deal with the problem of inhabitants’ evacuation in useful time. The analysis methods such as reachability or coverability tree and invariants technique to determine dynamic properties of the modeled systems will be used. To perform a case study of properties of extended evacuation system by adding time, the analysis modules of PIPE such as Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) Analysis, Simulation, State Space Analysis, and Invariant Analysis have been used. These modules helped us to obtain the average number of persons situated in the rooms and the other quantitative properties and characteristics related to its dynamics.

Keywords: lexicon of disasters, modelling, Petri nets, text annotation, social disasters

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Authors: Driouiche Ali, Karmal Ilham

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The Agadir region is characterized by a dry climate, ranging from arid attenuated by oceanic influences to hyper-arid. The water mobilized in the agricultural sector of greater Agadir is 95% of underground origin and comes from the water table of Chtouka. The rest represents the surface waters of the Youssef Ben Tachfine dam. These waters are intended for the irrigation of 26880 hectares of modern agriculture. More than 120 boreholes and wells are currently exploited. Their depth varies between 10 m and 200 m and the unit flow rates of the boreholes are 5 to 50 l/s. A drop in the level of the water table of about 1.5 m/year, on average, has been observed during the last five years. Farmers are thus called upon to improve irrigation methods. Thus, localized or drip irrigation is adopted to allow rational use of water. The importance of this irrigation system is due to the fact that water is applied directly to the root zone and its compatibility with fertilization. However, this irrigation system faces a thorny problem which is the clogging of pipes and drippers. This leads to a lack of uniformity of irrigation over time. This so-called scaling phenomenon, the consequences of which are harmful (cleaning or replacement of pipes), leads to considerable unproductive expenditure. The objective set by this work is the search for green inhibitors likely to prevent this phenomenon of scaling. This study requires a better knowledge of these waters, their physico-chemical characteristics and their scaling power. Thus, using the "LCGE" controlled degassing technique, we initially evaluated, on pure calco-carbonic water at 30°F, the scaling-inhibiting power of some available plant extracts in our region of Souss-Massa. We then carried out a comparative study of the efficacy of these green inhibitors. The action of the most effective green inhibitor on real agricultural waters was then studied.

Keywords: green inhibitors, localized irrigation, plant extracts, scaling inhibition

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Authors: Xiaoxin Zhao

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Because of the long-time dual structure development in urban and rural areas, the rapid urbanization in China devours the rural resources and causes the unbalanced development of cities and the countryside. On one side, the urban sprawl is swallowing the villages in the peripheral area of cities and forms the ‘urban village’. On the other side, people from traditional and vernacular villages immigrate to the metropolis that their homeland becomes the ‘hollowed village’. In 2005, the national state council noticed the significance of rural development and promoted the ‘beautiful countryside’ project when Minsu was rising. In the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (2017), president Xi Jinping announces the importance of ‘rural revitalization’ and states that the relationship between urban and rural areas should be an integrated development model. However, most Minsu projects in China was invested and managed by individual or group investors and focused on the profits but not the vernacular culture and rural development, and enhanced the urban-rural distinction. This paper introduces two Minsu projects in China designed by star-architects and advertised by social network media as case studies through photos and public comments collections. Architects as the servant to the investors, designed fancy houses, brings the urban life mode but expelled the real vernacular lifestyle as a cultural experience in rural areas. Moreover, to advertise the Minsu hotel, the social media propagates a distorted value that ‘luxury is good taste’ and motivates the vanity of people. Lastly, to maximize the profits, the investors set a high price that caused another unbalanced development in rural area since the price for one night in the Minsu hotel may exceed the monthly income of a local inhabitant. With these material, the author discusses the problems in Chinese Minsu industry and argues that the media, architects and investors play the negative role in the separation between Minsu cultural tourism and rural population. As a result, the author points out the significance of rural population participation that sharing the profits with them if we take Minsu industry as a method for rural revitalization in China.

Keywords: Minsu, vernacular, rural development, rural population participation

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Authors: Zinaida Shelkovnikova

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The language in science is changing and meets the demands of the society. We shall argue that in the varied modern world there are important reasons for the integration of narratives into scientific discourse. As far as nowadays scientists are faced with extremely prompt science development and progress; modern scientific society lives in the conditions of tough competition. The integration of narratives into scientific discourse is thus a good way to prompt scientific experience to different audiences and to express covert prestige of the discourse. Narratives also form the identity of the persuasive narrator. Using the narrative approach to the scientific discourse analysis we reveal the sociocultural diversity of the scientists. If you want to attract audience’s attention to your scientific research, narratives should be integrated into your scientific discourse. Those who understand this consistent pattern are considered the leading scientists. Taking into account that it is prestigious to be renowned, celebrated in science, it is a covert prestige to write narratives in science. We define a science narrative as the intentional, consequent, coherent, event discourse or a discourse fragment, which contains the author creativity, in some cases intrigue, and gives mostly qualitative information (compared with quantitative data) in order to provide maximum understanding of the research. Science narratives also allow the effective argumentation and consequently construct the identity of the persuasive narrator. However, skills of creating appropriate scientific discourse reflect the level of prestige. In order to teach postgraduate students to be successful in English scientific writing and to be prestigious in the scientific society, we have defined the science narrative and outlined its main features and characteristics. Narratives contribute to audience’s involvement with the narrator and his/her narration. In general, the way in which a narrative is performed may result in (limited or greater) contact with the audience. To gain these aim authors use emotional fictional elements; descriptive elements: adjectives; adverbs; comparisons and so on; author’s evaluative elements. Thus, the features of science narrativity are the following: descriptive tools; authors evaluation; qualitative information exceeds the quantitative data; facts take the event status; understandability; accessibility; creativity; logics; intrigue; esthetic nature; fiction. To conclude, narratives function covert prestige of the scientific discourse and shape the identity of the persuasive scientist.

Keywords: covert prestige, narrativity, scientific discourse, scientific narrative

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Authors: Maryam Ghavam Sadri, Kimia Moiniafshari

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Objectives: Autism is a neuro-developmental disorder that has negative effects on verbal, mental and behavioral development. Studies have shown the role of a maternal dietary pattern before and during pregnancy. The relation of exerting of nutritional management programs in prevention of Autism has been approved. This review article has been made to investigate the role of nutritional management strategies before and during pregnancy in the prevention of Autism. Methods: This review study was accomplished by using the keywords related to the topic, 67 articles were found (2000-2015) and finally 20 article with criteria such as including maternal lifestyle, nutritional deficiencies and Autism prevention were selected. Results: Maternal dietary pattern and health before and during pregnancy have important roles in the incidence of Autism. Studies have suggested that high dietary fat intake and obesity can increase the risk of Autism in offspring. Maternal metabolic condition specially gestational diabetes (GDM) (p-value < 0.04) and folate deficiency (p-value = 0.04) is associated with risk of Autism. Studies have shown that folate intake in mothers with autistic children is less than mothers who have typically developing children (TYP) (p-value<0.01). As folate is an essential micronutrient for fetus mental development, consumption of average 600 mcg/day especially in P1 phase of pregnancy results in significant reduction in incidence of Autism (OR:1.53, 95%CI=0.42-0.92, p-value = 0.02). furthermore, essential fatty acid deficiency especially omega-3 fatty acid increases the rate of Autism and consumption of supplements and food sources of omega-3 can decrease the risk of Autism up to 34% (RR=1.53, 95%CI=1-2.32). Conclusion: regards to nutritional deficiency and maternal metabolic condition before and during pregnancy in prevalence of Autism, carrying out the appropriate nutritional strategies such as well-timed folate supplementation before pregnancy and healthy lifestyle adherence for prevention of metabolic syndrome (GDM) seems to help Autism prevention.

Keywords: autism, autism prevention, dietary inadequacy, maternal lifestyle

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Authors: John Michael Weber

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The following research results spanned six months and 175 people addicted to some form of substance, from alcohol to heroin. One question was asked, and the answers were amazing and consistent. The following work is the detailed results of this writer’s answer to his own question and the 175 that followed. A constant pattern took shape throughout the bio-psycho-social assessments, these addicts had “first memories,” the memories were vivid and took place between the ages of three to six years old, to a person those first memories were traumatic. This writer’s personal search into his childhood was not to find an excuse for the way he became, but to explain the reason for becoming an addict. To treat addiction, these memories that have caused Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), must be recognized as the catalyst that sparked a predisposition. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT), integrated with treatment specifically focused on PTSD, gives the addict a better chance at recovery sans relapse. This paper seeks to give the findings of first memories of the addicts assessed and provide the best treatment plan for such an addict, considering, the childhood trauma in congruence with treatment of the Substance Use Disorder (SUD). The question posed was concerning what their first life memory wa It is the hope of this author to take the knowledge that trauma is one of the main catalysts for addiction, will allow therapists to provide better treatment and reduce relapse from abstinence from drugs and alcohol. This research led this author to believe that if treatment of childhood trauma is not a priority, the twelve steps of Alcoholics Anonymous, specifically steps 4 and 5, will not be thoroughly addressed and odds for relapse increase. With this knowledge, parents can be educated on childhood trauma and the effect it has on their children. Parents could be mindful of the fact that the things they perceive as traumatic, do not match what a child, in the developmental years, absorbs as traumatic. It is this author’s belief that what has become the status quo in treatment facilities has not been working for a long time. It is for that reason this author believes things need to change. Relapse has been woven into the fabric of standard operating procedure and that, in this authors view, is not necessary. Childhood Trauma is not being addressed early in recovery and that creates an environment of inevitable relapse. This paper will explore how to break away from the status -quo and rethink the current “evidencebased treatments.” To begin breaking away from status-quo, this ends the Abstract, with hopes an interest has been peaked to read on.

Keywords: childood, trauma, treatment, addiction, change

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Authors: Babak Nemat Shahrbabaki, Arezo Fallahi, Masoomeh Hashemian

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Introduction: Health and safety are basic components of civil right. Health care systems in different countries were influenced by political, economic and cultural circumstances. In order to health services to people, these systems are organized with different forms, methods such as: prevention, treatment and rehabilitation and in this among, public satisfaction with the services provided is important. This study aimed to determine client satisfaction with family physician and relationship with physician’ demographic variables in health care centers of Jiroft county, Iran. Methods: This is a descriptive-analytical study. The collective data tool was a self-made questionnaire with two parts. The first part comprised demographic characteristics, and the second part contained 11 items for the assessment of satisfaction with family physician from different aspects. In addition, questionnaire, reliability and validity were confirmed. Random simple sampling method was used to determine samples. 234 people referred to the health centers filled questionnaire. The data were analyzed using SPSS software, and inferential statistical analysis was performed. Findings: The majority of the study population were women, married, and aged between 18 and 62 years (mean= 30.09±10.71). Total average satisfaction score was 42.63±3.68. Overall satisfaction averages were 9.47% very high, 30.04% high, 33.09% moderate, 15.12% low, and 12.28% very low. Except lodge on of family physician none of physician’ demographic variables did not effect on satisfaction index. Discussion & Conclusion: The Results showed that mean of satisfaction indexes of family physicians was high and lodge on of family physician effected on this index. Informing people about the main goals of family-doctor program will help to promote the quality of program and increase people satisfaction.

Keywords: family physician program, satisfaction, health-care centers, client

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Authors: Mekni Sabrine, Nouira Mariem

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Background and aim: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is a curative treatment for several hematological diseases; however, it has a non-negligible morbidity and mortality depending on several prognostic factors, including pre-transplant hyperferritinemia. The aim of our study was to estimate the impact of hyperferritinemia on survivals and on the occurrence of post-transplant complications. Methods: It was a longitudinal study conducted over 8 years and including all patients who had a first allograft. The impact of pretransplant hyperferritinemia (ferritinemia ≥1500) on survivals was studied using the Kaplan Meier method and the COX model for uni- and multivariate analysis. The Khi-deux test and binary logistic regression were used to study the association between pretransplant ferritinemia and post-transplant complications. Results: One hundred forty patients were included with an average age of 26.6 years and a sex ratio (M/F)=1.4. Hyperferritinemia was found in 33% of patients. It had no significant impact on either overall survival (p=0.9) or event -free survival (p=0.6). In multivariate analysis, only the type of disease was independently associated with overall survival (p=0.04) and event-free survival (p=0.002). For post-allograft complications: The occurrence of early documented infections was independently associated with pretransplant hyperferritinemia (p=0.02) and the presence of acute graft versus host disease( GVHD) (p<10-3). The occurrence of acute GVHD was associated with early documented infection (p=0.002) and Cytomegalovirus reactivation (p<10-3). The occurrence of chronic GVHD was associated with the presence of Cytomegalovirus reactivation (p=0.006) and graft source (p=0.009). Conclusion: Our study showed the significant impact of pre-transplant hyperferritinemia on the occurrence of early infections but not on survivals. Early and more accurate assessment iron overload by other tests such as liver magnetic resonance imaging with initiation of chelating treatment could prevent the occurrence of such complications after transplantation.

Keywords: allogeneic, transplants, ferritin, survival

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Authors: Thomas Chinedu Aniokete, Gordian Onyebuchukwu Mbah, Michael Daramola

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A sustainable NaOH integrated hydrothermal protocol was developed for the synthesis of waste-derived hydroxy sodalite catalysts for transesterification of waste animal fat (WAF) with a high per cent free fatty acid (FFA) to biodiesel. In this work, hydroxy sodalite catalyst was synthesized from two complex waste materials namely coal fly ash (CFA) and waste industrial brine (WIB). Measured amounts of South African CFA and WIB obtained from a coal mine field were mixed with NaOH solution at different concentrations contained in secured glass vessels equipped with magnetic stirrers and formed consistent slurries after aging condition at 47 oC for 48 h. The slurries were then subjected to hydrothermal treatments at 140 oC for 48 h, washed thoroughly and separated by the action of a centrifuge on the mixture. The resulting catalysts were calcined in a muffle furnace for 2 h at 200 oC and subsequently characterized for different effects using X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR), and Bennett Emmet Teller (BET) adsorption-desorption techniques. The produced animal fat methyl ester (AFME) was analyzed using the gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) method. Results of the investigation indicate profoundly an enhanced catalyst purity, textural property and desired morphology due to the action of NaOH. Similarly, the performance evaluation with respect to catalyst activity reveals a high catalytic conversion efficiency of 98 % of the high FFA WAF to biodiesel under the following reaction conditions; a methanol-to-WAF ratio of 15:1, amount of SOD catalyst of 3 wt % with a stirring speed of 300-500 rpm, a reaction temperature of 60 oC and a reaction time of 8 h. There was a recovered 96 % stable catalyst after reactions and potentially recyclable, thus contributing to the economic savings to the process that had been a major bottleneck to the production of biodiesel. This NaOH route for synthesizing waste-derived hydroxy sodalite (SOD) catalyst is a sustainable and eco-friendly technology that speaks directly to the global quest for renewable-fossil fuel controversy enforcing sustainable development goal 7.

Keywords: coal fly ash, waste industrial brine, waste-derived hydroxy sodalite catalyst, sodium hydroxide, biodiesel, transesterification, biomass conversion

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Authors: I. V. Palamarchuk, N. V. Zaichko

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Background and Aims: Galectin-3 is a marker of subclinical cardiac injury and is elevated in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus; while hydrogen sulfide (H₂S), metabolite of sulfur-containing amino acids, is considered having antifibrogenic effects. This study was designed to investigate whether metformin and its combination with NaHS can influence plasma galectin-3 and cystathionine-γ-lyase/hydrogen sulfide (CSE/H₂S) system in diabetic rat’s heart. Methods: 32 healthy male rats (180-250 g) were divided into 4 groups. To induct diabetes, rats (group 2-4) were injected with streptozotocin (STZ, 40 mg/kg/i.p., 0.1 M citrate buffer (pH 4.5). Rats from 3d (STZ+Metf) and 4th (STZ+Metf+NaHS) groups were given metformin (500 mg/kg/day) orally, and rats from 4th (STZ+Metf+NaHS) group were injected sodium hydrosulfide (NaHS, 3 mg/kg/i.p.) once per day starting from 3 to 28 day after streptozotocin injection. Rats of first group (control) were administered the equivalent volumes of 0.9% NaCl. Plasma galectin-3 was measured by ELISA. Rats’ hearts were sampled for determination of H2S by reaction with N,N-Dimethyl-p-phenylenediamine. Determination of CSE gene expression was performed in real time using PCR in the presence of SYBR Green I, using DT-Light detecting amplifier ('DNA-technology', Russia). Results: Induction of streptozotocin diabetes (STZ-diabetes, group 2) was followed by low myocardial H2S concentration and CSE expression (by 35%, p < 0.05 and 60.5%, p < 0.001 respectively, than that in controls), while plasma galectin-3 in this group was significantly higher than in controls (by 3.8 times, p < 0.05). Administration of metformin (group 3) resulted in significantly higher H₂S concentration (by 28.5%, p < 0.05), whereas CSE expression was only by 6% more than that in STZ-diabetes, as well as plasma galectin-3 was only by 14.8% lower in comparison with untreated diabetic rats. The inhibition of H₂S generation and CSE activity by diabetes was greatly attenuated in STZ+Metf+NaHS group. The combination of metformin with NaHS significantly stimulated H₂S production (by 48%, p < 0.05 and 15%, p < 0.05 more than STZ-diabetes and STZ+Metf respectively) and CSE gene expression (by 64.8%, p < 0.05 compared to STZ-diabetes and by 55.4%,p < 0.05 compared to STZ+Metf). Besides, plasma galectin-3 in rats receiving metformin and NaHS was significantly lower by 42%, p < 0.05 and 32.5%, p < 0.05 compared to STZ-diabetes and STZ+Metf groups respectively. Conclusions: To summarize, dysfunction of CSE/H2S system and galectin-3 stimulation was found in streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats. Metformin and its combination with exogenous H2S effectively prevented the development of metabolic changes induced by diabetes. These findings suggest that CSE/H₂S system can be integrated into pathogenesis of diabetic complications through modulation of pro-inflammatory and pro-fibrogenic mediator galectin-3.

Keywords: cystathionine-γ-lyase, diabetic heart, galectin-3, hydrogen sulfide, metformin, sodium hydrosulfide

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Authors: Eyob Messele Sefene, Atinkut Atinafu Yilma

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The highest strength-to-weight ratio criterion has fascinated increasing curiosity in virtually all areas where weight reduction is indispensable. One of the recent advances in manufacturing to achieve this intention endears friction stir welding (FSW). The process is widely used for joining similar and dissimilar non-ferrous materials. In FSW, the mechanical properties of the weld joints are impelled by property-selected process parameters. This paper presents verdicts of optimum process parameters in attempting to attain enhanced mechanical properties of the weld joint. The experiment was conducted on a 5 mm 6061 aluminum alloy sheet. A butt joint configuration was employed. Process parameters, rotational speed, traverse speed or feed rate, axial force, dwell time, tool material and tool profiles were utilized. Process parameters were also optimized, making use of a mixed L18 orthogonal array and the Grey relation analysis method with larger is better quality characteristics. The mechanical properties of the weld joint are examined through the tensile test, hardness test and liquid penetrant test at ambient temperature. ANOVA was conducted in order to investigate the significant process parameters. This research shows that dwell time, rotational speed, tool shape, and traverse speed have become significant, with a joint efficiency of about 82.58%. Nine confirmatory tests are conducted, and the results indicate that the average values of the grey relational grade fall within the 99% confidence interval. Hence the experiment is proven reliable.

Keywords: friction stir welding, optimization, 6061 AA, Taguchi

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Authors: P. J. Kagosi, M. Mndolwa, E. Japhate

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The study was conducted to communities adjacent MNR, Lushoto district, Tanzania. The MNR is one of the nine nature reserves in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania with an area of 8,700ha with high biological diversity. However, biodiversity in MNR have been threatened by increasing human activities for livelihood in 1970s. The AF systems in the study area was practised since 1980s however, no study was conducted on AF impacts. This paper presents the influence of AF on livelihood of communities adjacent MNR and biodiversity conservation. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected using socio-economic survey and botanical surveys. Data were analysed using Statistical Packages for Social Sciences and content analysis. The study found that in 1970s free livestock grazing caused considerable surface runoff, soil erosion and reduction of crop production. Since 1980s, the study area received various interventions based on the land conservations and improved livelihood through practising AF systems. It was further found that the AF farming improved crop productivity, reduced soil erosion, increased firewood (80.2%) and other forest products availability and AF encouraged community members practicing indoor livestock keeping.The dominant agroforestry tree found in the study area is grevillea reported by 74.1% of respondents planting an average of 40 trees. The study found that the AF reduced pressure to MNR as forest products and fodders were obtained from community's farms in turn, currently water flow from MNR has been increased. Thus AF products support livelihood needs and conserve biodiversity. The study recommends continuity education on new AF technology packages.

Keywords: impact of agroforestry, biodiversity management, communities’ livelihoods, Magamba nature reserve

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Authors: Chen-Ya Juan

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In recent years, the increasing number of children with special needs has brought a lot of attention by many scholars and experts in education, which enforced the preschool teachers face the harsh challenge in the classroom. To protect the right of equal education for all children, enhance the quality of children learning, and take care of the needs of children with special needs, the special education paraprofessional becomes one of the future employment trends for students of the department of the early childhood care and education. Problem-based learning is a problem-oriented instruction, which is different from traditional instruction. The instructor first designed an ambiguous problem direction, following the basic knowledge of early intervention, students had to find clues to solve the problem defined by themselves. In the class, the total instruction included 20 hours, two hours per week. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship of student academic scores, self-awareness, learning motivation, learning attitudes, and early intervention knowledge. A total of 105 college students participated in this study and 97 questionnaires were effective. The effective response rate was 90%. The student participants included 95 females and two males. The average age of the participants was 19 years old. The questionnaires included 125 questions divided into four major dimensions: (1) Self-awareness, (2) learning motivation, (3) learning attitudes, and (4) early intervention knowledge. The results indicated (1) the scores of self-awareness were 58%; the scores of the learning motivations was 64.9%; the scores of the learning attitudes was 55.3%. (2) After the instruction, the early intervention knowledge has been increased to 64.2% from 38.4%. (3) Student’s academic performance has positive relationship with self-awareness (p < 0.05; R = 0.506), learning motivation (p < 0.05; R = 0.487), learning attitudes (p < 0.05; R = 0.527). The results implied that although students had gained early intervention knowledge by using PBL instruction, students had medium scores on self-awareness and learning attitudes, medium high in learning motivations.

Keywords: college students, children with special needs, problem-based learning, learning motivation

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Authors: Enze Zhang

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One of the most challenging steps in implementing virtual water content (VWC) analysis of crops is to get properly the total volume of consumptive water use (CWU) and, therefore, the choice of a reliable crop CWU estimation method. In practice, lots of previous researches obtaining CWU of crops follow a classical procedure for calculating crop evapotranspiration which is determined by multiplying reference evapotranspiration by appropriate coefficient, such as crop coefficient and water stress coefficients. However, this manner of calculation requires lots of field experimental data at point scale and more seriously, when current growing conditions differ from the standard conditions, may easily produce deviation between the calculated CWU and the actual CWU. Since evapotranspiration caused by crop planting always plays a vital role in surface water-energy balance in an agricultural region, this study decided to alternatively estimates crop evapotranspiration by Budyko framework. After brief introduce the development process of Budyko framework. We choose a modified Budyko framework under unsteady-state to better evaluated the actual CWU and apply it in an agricultural irrigation area in North China Plain which rely on underground water for irrigation. With the agricultural statistic data, this calculated CWU was further converted into VWC and its subdivision of crops at the annual scale. Results show that all the average values of VWC, VWC_blue and VWC_green show a downward trend with increased agricultural production and improved acreage. By comparison with the previous research, VWC calculated by Budyko framework agree well with part of the previous research and for some other research the value is greater. Our research also suggests that this methodology and findings may be reliable and convenient for investigation of virtual water throughout various agriculture regions of the world.

Keywords: virtual water content, Budyko framework, consumptive water use, crop evapotranspiration

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Authors: Mohd Tariq, Shyamal K. Nandi, Indra D. Bhatt

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Paris polyphylla Smith (Family- Liliaceae; English name-Love apple: Local name- Satuwa) is an important folk medicinal herb of the Indian subcontinent, being a source of number of bioactive compounds for drug formulation. The rhizomes are widely used as antihelmintic, antispasmodic, digestive stomachic, expectorant and vermifuge, antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, heart and vascular malady, anti-fertility and sedative. Keeping in view of this, the species is being constantly removed from nature for trade and various pharmaceuticals purpose, as a result, the availability of the species in its natural habitat is decreasing. In this context, it would be pertinent to conserve this species and reintroduce them in its natural habitat. Predictive distribution modelling of this species was performed in Western Himalayan Region. One such recent method is Ecological Niche Modelling, also popularly known as Species distribution modelling, which uses computer algorithms to generate predictive maps of species distributions in a geographic space by correlating the point distributional data with a set of environmental raster data. In case of P. polyphylla, and to understand its potential distribution zones and setting up of artificial introductions, or selecting conservation sites, and conservation and management of their native habitat. Among the different districts of Uttarakhand (28°05ˈ-31°25ˈ N and 77°45ˈ-81°45ˈ E) Uttarkashi, Rudraprayag, Chamoli, Pauri Garhwal and some parts of Bageshwar, 'Maximum Entropy' (Maxent) has predicted wider potential distribution of P. polyphylla Smith. Distribution of P. polyphylla is mainly governed by Precipitation of Driest Quarter and Mean Diurnal Range i.e., 27.08% and 18.99% respectively which indicates that humidity (27%) and average temperature (19°C) might be suitable for better growth of Paris polyphylla.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, Indian Himalayan region, Paris polyphylla, predictive distribution modelling

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Authors: Fatemeh Parhizkar, Mojtaba Yamani, Abdolla Behboodi, Masoomeh Hashemi

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The mangrove forests are natural and valuable gifts that exist in some parts of the world, including Iran. Regarding the threats faced by these forests and the declining area of them all over the world, as well as in Iran, it is very necessary to manage and monitor them. The current study aimed to investigate the changes in mangrove forests and the relationship between these changes and the marine hydrodynamics and coastal morphology in the area between qeshm island and the west coast of the Hormozgan province (i.e. the coastline between Mehran river and Bandar-e Pol port) in the 49-year period. After preprocessing and classifying satellite images using the SVM, MLC, and ANN classifiers and evaluating the accuracy of the maps, the SVM approach with the highest accuracy (the Kappa coefficient of 0.97 and overall accuracy of 98) was selected for preparing the classification map of all images. The results indicate that from 1972 to 1987, the area of these forests have had experienced a declining trend, and in the next years, their expansion was initiated. These forests include the mangrove forests of Khurkhuran wetland, Muriz Deraz Estuary, Haft Baram Estuary, the mangrove forest in the south of the Laft Port, and the mangrove forests between the Tabl Pier, Maleki Village, and Gevarzin Village. The marine hydrodynamic and geomorphological characteristics of the region, such as average intertidal zone, sediment data, the freshwater inlet of Mehran river, wave stability and calmness, topography and slope, as well as mangrove conservation projects make the further expansion of mangrove forests in this area possible. By providing significant and up-to-date information on the development and decline of mangrove forests in different parts of the coast, this study can significantly contribute to taking measures for the conservation and restoration of mangrove forests.

Keywords: mangrove forests, marine hydrodynamics, coastal morphology, west of strait of Hormuz, Iran

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Authors: T. Poppendieker, H. Maurer, C. Segieth

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Over the past ten years, foam rolling has become a new trend in the fitness and health market. It is also a frequently used technique for self-massage. However, the scope of effects from foam rolling has only recently started to be researched and understood. The focus of this study is to examine the effects of prolonged foam rolling on muscle performance. Isometric muscle force was used as a parameter to determine an improving impact of the myofascial roller in two different application volumes. Besides the maximal muscle force, data were also collected on muscle activation during all tests. Twenty-four (17 females, 7 males) healthy students with an average age of 23.4 ± 2.8 years were recruited. The study followed a cross-over pre-/post design in which the order of conditions was counterbalanced. The subjects performed a one-minute and three-minute foam rolling application set on two separate days. Isometric maximal muscle force of the dominant calf was tested before and after the self-myofascial release application. The statistic software program SPSS 22 was used to analyze the data of the maximal isometric force of the calf muscle by a 2 x 2 (time of measurement x intervention) analysis of variance with repeated measures. The statistic significance level was set at p ≤ 0.05. Neither for the main effect of time of measurement (F(1,23) = .93, p = .36, f = .20) nor for the interaction of time of measurement x intervention (F(1,23) = 1.99, p = .17, f = 0.29) significant p-values were found. However, the effect size indicates a mean interaction effect with a tendency of greater pre-post improvements under the three-minute foam rolling condition. Changes in maximal force did not correlate with changes in EMG-activity (r = .02, p = .95 in the short and r = -.11, p = .65 in the long rolling condition). Results support findings of previous studies and suggest a positive potential for use of the foam roll as a means for keeping muscle force at least at the same performance level while leading to an increase in flexibility.

Keywords: application volume differences, foam rolling, isometric maximal force, self-myofascial release

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Authors: Ana M. T. Mata, Alexiane Ligneul

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Textile effluents are usually heavily loaded with organic carbon and color compounds, the latter being azo dyes in an estimated 70% of the case effluent posing a major challenge in environmental protection. In this study, the ecotoxicity of simulated textile effluent after biological treatment with anaerobic and aerobic phase (aerobic granular sludge, AGS) and after advanced oxidation processes (AOP) namely ozonation and UV irradiation as post-treatment, were tested to evaluate the fitness of this treatments for ecotoxicity abatement. AGS treatment achieved an 80% removal in both COD and color. AOP was applied with the intention to mineralize the metabolites resulting from biodecolorization of the azo dye Acid Red 14, especially the stable aromatic amine (4-amino-1-naphthalenesulfonic acid, 4A1NS). The ecotoxicity evaluation was based on growth inhibition of the algae Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata following OECD TG 201 except regarding the medium, MBL medium was used instead. Five replicate control cultures and samples were performed with an average STD of 2.7% regarding specific algae growth rate determination. It was found that untreated textile effluent holds an inhibition of specific growth rate of 82%. AGS treatment by itself is able to lower ecotoxicity to 53%. This is probably due to the high color removal of the treatment. AOP post-treatment with Ozone and UV irradiation improves the ecotoxicity abatment to 49 and 43% inhibition respectively, less significantly than previously thought. Since over 85% of 4A1NS was removed by either of the AOP (followed by HPLC), an individual ecotoxicity test of 4A1NS was performed showing that 4A1NS does not inhibit algae growth (0% inhibition). It was concluded that AGS treatment is able by itself to achieve a significant ecotoxicity abatement of textile effluent. The cost-benefit of AOP as a post-treatment have to be better accessed since their application resulted in an improvement of only 10% regarding ecotoxicity effluent removal. It was also found that the 4A1NS amine had no apparent effect on ecotoxicity. Further studies will be conducted to study where ecotoxicity is coming from after AGS biological treatment and how to eliminate it.

Keywords: textile wastewate, ecotoxicity, aerobic granular sludge, AOP

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Authors: Bilal Ahmed, Muhammad Rafiq, Choongjae Im

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The tech-savvy Gen Z's transfer towards interactive concept learning is hammering the demand for online collaborative learning environments, renovating conventional education approaches. The authors propose a novel approach to enhance learning outcomes to improve retention in 3D interactive education by connecting virtual reality (VR) and non-VR devices in the classroom and distance learning. The study evaluates students' experiences with VR interconnectivity devices in human anatomy lectures using real-time 3D interactive data visualization. Utilizing the renowned "Guo & Pooles Inventory" and the "Flow for Presence Questionnaires," it used an experimental research design with a control and experimental group to assess this novel connecting strategy's effectiveness and significant potential for in-person and online educational settings during the sessions. The experimental group's interactions, engagement levels, and usability experiences were assessed using the "Guo & Pooles Inventory" and "Flow for Presence Questionnaires," which measure their sense of presence, engagement, and immersion throughout the learning process using a 5-point Likert scale. At the end of the sessions, we used the "Perceived Usability Scale" to find our proposed system's overall efficiency, effectiveness, and satisfaction. By comparing both groups, the students in the experimental group used the integrated VR environment and VR to non-VR devices, and their sense of presence and attentiveness was significantly improved, allowing for increased engagement by giving students diverse technological access. Furthermore, learners' flow states demonstrated increased absorption and focus levels, improving information retention and Perceived Usability. The findings of this study can help educational institutions optimize their technology-enhanced teaching methods for traditional classroom settings as well as distance-based learning, where building a sense of connection among remote learners is critical. This study will give significant insights into educational technology and its ongoing progress by analyzing engagement, interactivity, usability, satisfaction, and presence.

Keywords: interactive learning environments, human-computer interaction, virtual reality, computer- supported collaborative learning

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Authors: Shorena Sadzaglishvili, Teona Gotsiridze, Ketevan Lekishvili, Darejan Javakhishvili, Alida Bouris

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Globally, adolescents and young people experience high levels of HIV vulnerability and risk. Estimates suggest that AIDS-related deaths among young people are increasing, suggesting poor prioritization of adolescents in national plans for HIV testing and treatment services. HIV/AIDS is currently the sixth leading cause of death in people aged 10-24 years. Among young people, street connected youth are clearly distinguished as being among the most at risk for HIV infection. The present study recognizes the urgent need to scale up effective HIV responses that are tailored to the unique needs of street connected youth for the global HIV agenda and especially, the former Soviet country - Georgia, where 'street kids' are a new phenomenon and estimated to be about 2,500. During two months trained interviewers conducted individual semi-structured qualitative interviews with 22 key informants from the local governmental and nongovernmental service organizations, including psychologists, social workers, peer educators, mobile health workers, and managers. Informants discussed social network characteristics influencing street connected youth’s sexual risk behaviors. Data were analyzed using Dedoose. It was revealed that there are three types of homogeneous networks of street-connected youth aged 10-19 based on ethnical background: (1) Georgians; (2) migrant kids of Azeri-Kurdish origin, and (3) local Roma-Moldavian kids. These networks are distinguished with various HIV risk through both risky sexual and drug-related behaviors. In addition, there are several cases of HIV infection identified through reactive social services. Street connected youth do not have basic information about the HIV related sexual, alcohol and drug behaviors nor there are any systematic programs providing HIV testing and consultation for reducing the vulnerability of HIV infection. There is a need to systematically examine street-connected youth risk-taking behaviors by applying an integrated, multilevel framework to a population at great risk of HIV. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation of Georgia (SRNSFG) [#FR 17_31], Ilia State University.

Keywords: street connected youth, social networks, HIV/AIDS, HIV testing

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Authors: Francesca Giliberto

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Heritage and culture, in general, plays a central role in addressing the complexity and broad variety of global development challenges, ranging from environmental degradation and refugee and humanitarian crisis to extreme poverty, food insecurity, persisting inequalities, and unsustainable urbanisation, just to mention some examples. Nevertheless, the potential of harnessing heritage to address global challenges has remained largely under-represented and underestimated in the most recent international development agenda adopted by the United Nations in 2015 (2030 Agenda). Among the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) and 169 associated targets established, only target 11.4 explicitly mentions heritage, stating that efforts should be strengthened “to protect and safeguard the world’s cultural and natural heritage in order to make our cities safe, resilient, and sustainable”. However, this global target continues to reflect a rather limited approach to heritage for development. This paper will provide a critical reflection on the contribution that using (tangible and intangible) heritage in international research can make to tackling global challenges and supporting the achievement of all the SDGs. It will present key findings and insights from the heritage strand of PRAXIS, a research project from the University of Leeds, which focuses on Arts and Humanities research across 300+ projects funded through the Global Challenges Research Fund and Newton Fund. In particular, this paper will shed light on successful practices and lessons learned from 87 research projects funded through the Global Challenges Research Fund and Newton Fund portfolios in 49 countries eligible for Official Development Assistance (ODA) between 2014 and 2021. Research data were collected through a desk assessment of project data available on UKRI Gateway to Research, online surveys, and qualitative interviews with research principal investigators and partners. The findings of this research provide evidence of how heritage and heritage research can foster innovative, interdisciplinary, inclusive, and transformative sustainable development and the achievement of the SDGs in ODA countries and beyond. This paper also highlights current challenges and research gaps that still need to be overcome to rethink current approaches and transform our development models to be more integrated, human-centred, and sustainable.

Keywords: global challenges, heritage, international research, sustainable development

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Authors: B. Rusyidi

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Since 2009, the Indonesian Ministry of Social Affairs has been implementing Program Kesejahteraan Sosial Anak (PKSA) (Child Welfare Program) a conditional cash transfer program that targets neglected children, children with disabilities, street children, children in conflict with the law, and children in need of special protection, all from poor households. PKSA integrates three elements: Transfer of cash, care and social services through social workers, and institutional childcare assistance. This qualitative study analyzed the roles and the challenges of social workers in implementing PKSA and lays out recommendations to inform policy changes. Data were collected in late 2014 from national and local government and non-government child welfare agencies, social workers, and childcare institution representatives through interviews and Focused Group Discussions (FGDs). Field work took place in six districts in the provinces of Jakarta, Central Java and South Sulawesi. The study found that the social workers’ role was significant in facilitating cash transfer, providing education and guidance, and linking children and families to basic social services. This improved utilization of basic social services enhanced children and families’ behaviors and contributed to the well being of the children. However, only a small number of childcare institutions have social workers, leaving many children and families without care and social service linkages, depriving them of rehabilitative components to help them regain their social functions. Some social workers reported their struggles with heavy workloads, lack of professional competencies and training, limited job security, and inadequate professional acknowledgment from other professions. Parts of those challenges were due to the centralized nature of the program and the lack of shared vision and commitment about the child protection system among related government agencies both at the national and local levels. The study highlights the necessity to implement an integrated child protection system, decentralize the PKSA program, and increase the number, competence, case management, and management and monitoring of social workers. The most recent progress of the program and its impacts on social workers are also discussed.

Keywords: child protection, conditional cash transfer, program decentralization, social worker, working conditions

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Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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