Search results for: Numerical Modeling
Commenced in January 2007
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Paper Count: 6686

Search results for: Numerical Modeling

206 Decentralized Peak-Shaving Strategies for Integrated Domestic Batteries

Authors: Corentin Jankowiak, Aggelos Zacharopoulos, Caterina Brandoni

Abstract:

In a context of increasing stress put on the electricity network by the decarbonization of many sectors, energy storage is likely to be the key mitigating element, by acting as a buffer between production and demand. In particular, the highest potential for storage is when connected closer to the loads. Yet, low voltage storage struggles to penetrate the market at a large scale due to the novelty and complexity of the solution, and the competitive advantage of fossil fuel-based technologies regarding regulations. Strong and reliable numerical simulations are required to show the benefits of storage located near loads and promote its development. The present study was restrained from excluding aggregated control of storage: it is assumed that the storage units operate independently to one another without exchanging information – as is currently mostly the case. A computationally light battery model is presented in detail and validated by direct comparison with a domestic battery operating in real conditions. This model is then used to develop Peak-Shaving (PS) control strategies as it is the decentralized service from which beneficial impacts are most likely to emerge. The aggregation of flatter, peak- shaved consumption profiles is likely to lead to flatter and arbitraged profile at higher voltage layers. Furthermore, voltage fluctuations can be expected to decrease if spikes of individual consumption are reduced. The crucial part to achieve PS lies in the charging pattern: peaks depend on the switching on and off of appliances in the dwelling by the occupants and are therefore impossible to predict accurately. A performant PS strategy must, therefore, include a smart charge recovery algorithm that can ensure enough energy is present in the battery in case it is needed without generating new peaks by charging the unit. Three categories of PS algorithms are introduced in detail. First, using a constant threshold or power rate for charge recovery, followed by algorithms using the State Of Charge (SOC) as a decision variable. Finally, using a load forecast – of which the impact of the accuracy is discussed – to generate PS. A performance metrics was defined in order to quantitatively evaluate their operating regarding peak reduction, total energy consumption, and self-consumption of domestic photovoltaic generation. The algorithms were tested on load profiles with a 1-minute granularity over a 1-year period, and their performance was assessed regarding these metrics. The results show that constant charging threshold or power are far from optimal: a certain value is not likely to fit the variability of a residential profile. As could be expected, forecast-based algorithms show the highest performance. However, these depend on the accuracy of the forecast. On the other hand, SOC based algorithms also present satisfying performance, making them a strong alternative when the reliable forecast is not available.

Keywords: decentralised control, domestic integrated batteries, electricity network performance, peak-shaving algorithm

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205 External Validation of Established Pre-Operative Scoring Systems in Predicting Response to Microvascular Decompression for Trigeminal Neuralgia

Authors: Kantha Siddhanth Gujjari, Shaani Singhal, Robert Andrew Danks, Adrian Praeger

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Background: Trigeminal neuralgia (TN) is a heterogenous pain syndrome characterised by short paroxysms of lancinating facial pain in the distribution of the trigeminal nerve, often triggered by usually innocuous stimuli. TN has a low prevalence of less than 0.1%, of which 80% to 90% is caused by compression of the trigeminal nerve from an adjacent artery or vein. The root entry zone of the trigeminal nerve is most sensitive to neurovascular conflict (NVC), causing dysmyelination. Whilst microvascular decompression (MVD) is an effective treatment for TN with NVC, all patients do not achieve long-term pain relief. Pre-operative scoring systems by Panczykowski and Hardaway have been proposed but have not been externally validated. These pre-operative scoring systems are composite scores calculated according to a subtype of TN, presence and degree of neurovascular conflict, and response to medical treatments. There is discordance in the assessment of NVC identified on pre-operative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) between neurosurgeons and radiologists. To our best knowledge, the prognostic impact for MVD of this difference of interpretation has not previously been investigated in the form of a composite scoring system such as those suggested by Panczykowski and Hardaway. Aims: This study aims to identify prognostic factors and externally validate the proposed scoring systems by Panczykowski and Hardaway for TN. A secondary aim is to investigate the prognostic difference between a neurosurgeon's interpretation of NVC on MRI compared with a radiologist’s. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 95 patients who underwent de novo MVD in a single neurosurgical unit in Melbourne. Data was recorded from patients’ hospital records and neurosurgeon’s correspondence from perioperative clinic reviews. Patient demographics, type of TN, distribution of TN, response to carbamazepine, neurosurgeon, and radiologist interpretation of NVC on MRI, were clearly described prospectively and preoperatively in the correspondence. Scoring systems published by Panczykowski et al. and Hardaway et al. were used to determine composite scores, which were compared with the recurrence of TN recorded during follow-up over 1-year. Categorical data analysed using Pearson chi-square testing. Independent numerical and nominal data analysed with logistical regression. Results: Logistical regression showed that a Panczykowski composite score of greater than 3 points was associated with a higher likelihood of pain-free outcome 1-year post-MVD with an OR 1.81 (95%CI 1.41-2.61, p=0.032). The composite score using neurosurgeon’s impression of NVC had an OR 2.96 (95%CI 2.28-3.31, p=0.048). A Hardaway composite score of greater than 2 points was associated with a higher likelihood of pain-free outcome 1 year post-MVD with an OR 3.41 (95%CI 2.58-4.37, p=0.028). The composite score using neurosurgeon’s impression of NVC had an OR 3.96 (95%CI 3.01-4.65, p=0.042). Conclusion: Composite scores developed by Panczykowski and Hardaway were validated for the prediction of response to MVD in TN. A composite score based on the neurosurgeon’s interpretation of NVC on MRI, when compared with the radiologist’s had a greater correlation with pain-free outcomes 1 year post-MVD.

Keywords: de novo microvascular decompression, neurovascular conflict, prognosis, trigeminal neuralgia

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204 Rehabilitation of Orthotropic Steel Deck Bridges Using a Modified Ortho-Composite Deck System

Authors: Mozhdeh Shirinzadeh, Richard Stroetmann

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Orthotropic steel deck bridge consists of a deck plate, longitudinal stiffeners under the deck plate, cross beams and the main longitudinal girders. Due to the several advantages, Orthotropic Steel Deck (OSD) systems have been utilized in many bridges worldwide. The significant feature of this structural system is its high load-bearing capacity while having relatively low dead weight. In addition, cost efficiency and the ability of rapid field erection have made the orthotropic steel deck a popular type of bridge worldwide. However, OSD bridges are highly susceptible to fatigue damage. A large number of welded joints can be regarded as the main weakness of this system. This problem is, in particular, evident in the bridges which were built before 1994 when the fatigue design criteria had not been introduced in the bridge design codes. Recently, an Orthotropic-composite slab (OCS) for road bridges has been experimentally and numerically evaluated and developed at Technische Universität Dresden as a part of AIF-FOSTA research project P1265. The results of the project have provided a solid foundation for the design and analysis of Orthotropic-composite decks with dowel strips as a durable alternative to conventional steel or reinforced concrete decks. In continuation, while using the achievements of that project, the application of a modified Ortho-composite deck for an existing typical OSD bridge is investigated. Composite action is obtained by using rows of dowel strips in a clothoid (CL) shape. Regarding Eurocode criteria for different fatigue detail categories of an OSD bridge, the effect of the proposed modification approach is assessed. Moreover, a numerical parametric study is carried out utilizing finite element software to determine the impact of different variables, such as the size and arrangement of dowel strips, the application of transverse or longitudinal rows of dowel strips, and local wheel loads. For the verification of the simulation technique, experimental results of a segment of an OCS deck are used conducted in project P1265. Fatigue assessment is performed based on the last draft of Eurocode 1993-2 (2024) for the most probable detail categories (Hot-Spots) that have been reported in the previous statistical studies. Then, an analytical comparison is provided between the typical orthotropic steel deck and the modified Ortho-composite deck bridge in terms of fatigue issues and durability. The load-bearing capacity of the bridge, the critical deflections, and the composite behavior are also evaluated and compared. Results give a comprehensive overview of the efficiency of the rehabilitation method considering the required design service life of the bridge. Moreover, the proposed approach is assessed with regard to the construction method, details and practical aspects, as well as the economic point of view.

Keywords: composite action, fatigue, finite element method, steel deck, bridge

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203 Viscoelastic Behavior of Human Bone Tissue under Nanoindentation Tests

Authors: Anna Makuch, Grzegorz Kokot, Konstanty Skalski, Jakub Banczorowski

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Cancellous bone is a porous composite of a hierarchical structure and anisotropic properties. The biological tissue is considered to be a viscoelastic material, but many studies based on a nanoindentation method have focused on their elasticity and microhardness. However, the response of many organic materials depends not only on the load magnitude, but also on its duration and time course. Depth Sensing Indentation (DSI) technique has been used for examination of creep in polymers, metals and composites. In the indentation tests on biological samples, the mechanical properties are most frequently determined for animal tissues (of an ox, a monkey, a pig, a rat, a mouse, a bovine). However, there are rare reports of studies of the bone viscoelastic properties on microstructural level. Various rheological models were used to describe the viscoelastic behaviours of bone, identified in the indentation process (e. g Burgers model, linear model, two-dashpot Kelvin model, Maxwell-Voigt model). The goal of the study was to determine the influence of creep effect on the mechanical properties of human cancellous bone in indentation tests. The aim of this research was also the assessment of the material properties of bone structures, having in mind the energy aspects of the curve (penetrator loading-depth) obtained in the loading/unloading cycle. There was considered how the different holding times affected the results within trabecular bone.As a result, indentation creep (CIT), hardness (HM, HIT, HV) and elasticity are obtained. Human trabecular bone samples (n=21; mean age 63±15yrs) from the femoral heads replaced during hip alloplasty were removed and drained from alcohol of 1h before the experiment. The indentation process was conducted using CSM Microhardness Tester equipped with Vickers indenter. Each sample was indented 35 times (7 times for 5 different hold times: t1=0.1s, t2=1s, t3=10s, t4=100s and t5=1000s). The indenter was advanced at a rate of 10mN/s to 500mN. There was used Oliver-Pharr method in calculation process. The increase of hold time is associated with the decrease of hardness parameters (HIT(t1)=418±34 MPa, HIT(t2)=390±50 MPa, HIT(t3)= 313±54 MPa, HIT(t4)=305±54 MPa, HIT(t5)=276±90 MPa) and elasticity (EIT(t1)=7.7±1.2 GPa, EIT(t2)=8.0±1.5 GPa, EIT(t3)=7.0±0.9 GPa, EIT(t4)=7.2±0.9 GPa, EIT(t5)=6.2±1.8 GPa) as well as with the increase of the elastic (Welastic(t1)=4.11∙10-7±4.2∙10-8Nm, Welastic(t2)= 4.12∙10-7±6.4∙10-8 Nm, Welastic(t3)=4.71∙10-7±6.0∙10-9 Nm, Welastic(t4)= 4.33∙10-7±5.5∙10-9Nm, Welastic(t5)=5.11∙10-7±7.4∙10-8Nm) and inelastic (Winelastic(t1)=1.05∙10-6±1.2∙10-7 Nm, Winelastic(t2) =1.07∙10-6±7.6∙10-8 Nm, Winelastic(t3)=1.26∙10-6±1.9∙10-7Nm, Winelastic(t4)=1.56∙10-6± 1.9∙10-7 Nm, Winelastic(t5)=1.67∙10-6±2.6∙10-7)) reaction of materials. The indentation creep increased logarithmically (R2=0.901) with increasing hold time: CIT(t1) = 0.08±0.01%, CIT(t2) = 0.7±0.1%, CIT(t3) = 3.7±0.3%, CIT(t4) = 12.2±1.5%, CIT(t5) = 13.5±3.8%. The pronounced impact of creep effect on the mechanical properties of human cancellous bone was observed in experimental studies. While the description elastic-inelastic, and thus the Oliver-Pharr method for data analysis, may apply in few limited cases, most biological tissues do not exhibit elastic-inelastic indentation responses. Viscoelastic properties of tissues may play a significant role in remodelling. The aspect is still under an analysis and numerical simulations. Acknowledgements: The presented results are part of the research project founded by National Science Centre (NCN), Poland, no.2014/15/B/ST7/03244.

Keywords: bone, creep, indentation, mechanical properties

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202 Mathematical Modelling of Bacterial Growth in Products of Animal Origin in Storage and Transport: Effects of Temperature, Use of Bacteriocins and pH Level

Authors: Benjamin Castillo, Luis Pastenes, Fernando Cordova

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The pathogen growth in animal source foods is a common problem in the food industry, causing monetary losses due to the spoiling of products or food intoxication outbreaks in the community. In this sense, the quality of the product is reflected by the population of deteriorating agents present in it, which are mainly bacteria. The factors which are likely associated with freshness in animal source foods are temperature and processing, storage, and transport times. However, the level of deterioration of products depends, in turn, on the characteristics of the bacterial population, causing the decomposition or spoiling, such as pH level and toxins. Knowing the growth dynamics of the agents that are involved in product contamination allows the monitoring for more efficient processing. This means better quality and reasonable costs, along with a better estimation of necessary time and temperature intervals for transport and storage in order to preserve product quality. The objective of this project is to design a secondary model that allows measuring the impact on temperature bacterial growth and the competition for pH adequacy and release of bacteriocins in order to describe such phenomenon and, thus, estimate food product half-life with the least possible risk of deterioration or spoiling. In order to achieve this objective, the authors propose an analysis of a three-dimensional ordinary differential which includes; logistic bacterial growth extended by the inhibitory action of bacteriocins including the effect of the medium pH; change in the medium pH levels through an adaptation of the Luedeking-Piret kinetic model; Bacteriocin concentration modeled similarly to pH levels. These three dimensions are being influenced by the temperature at all times. Then, this differential system is expanded, taking into consideration the variable temperature and the concentration of pulsed bacteriocins, which represent characteristics inherent of the modeling, such as transport and storage, as well as the incorporation of substances that inhibit bacterial growth. The main results lead to the fact that temperature changes in an early stage of transport increased the bacterial population significantly more than if it had increased during the final stage. On the other hand, the incorporation of bacteriocins, as in other investigations, proved to be efficient in the short and medium-term since, although the population of bacteria decreased, once the bacteriocins were depleted or degraded over time, the bacteria eventually returned to their regular growth rate. The efficacy of the bacteriocins at low temperatures decreased slightly, which equates with the fact that their natural degradation rate also decreased. In summary, the implementation of the mathematical model allowed the simulation of a set of possible bacteria present in animal based products, along with their properties, in various transport and storage situations, which led us to state that for inhibiting bacterial growth, the optimum is complementary low constant temperatures and the initial use of bacteriocins.

Keywords: bacterial growth, bacteriocins, mathematical modelling, temperature

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201 Early Return to Play in Football Player after ACL Injury: A Case Report

Authors: Nicola Milani, Carla Bellissimo, Davide Pogliana, Davide Panzin, Luca Garlaschelli, Giulia Facchinetti, Claudia Casson, Luca Marazzina, Andrea Sartori, Simone Rivaroli, Jeff Konin

Abstract:

The patient is a 26 year-old male amateur football player from Milan, Italy; (81kg; 185cm; BMI 23.6 kg/m²). He sustained a non-contact anterior cruciate ligament tear to his right knee in June 2021. In September 2021, his right knee ligament was reconstructed using a semitendinosus graft. The injury occurred during a football match on natural grass with typical shoes on a warm day (32 degrees celsius). Playing as a defender he sustained the injury during a change of direction, where the foot was fixated on the grass. He felt pain and was unable to continue playing the match. The surgeon approved his rehabilitation to begin two weeks post-operative. The initial physiotherapist assessment determined performing two training sessions per day within the first three months. In the first three weeks, the pain was 4/10 on Numerical Rating Scale (NRS), no swelling, a range of motion was 0-110°, with difficulty fully extending his knee and minimal quadriceps activation. Crutches were discontinued at four weeks with improved walking. Active exercise, electrostimulator, physical therapy, massages, osteopathy, and passive motion were initiated. At week 6, he completed his first functional movement screen; the score was 16/21 with no pain and no swelling. At week 8, the isokinetic test showed a 23% differential deficit between the two legs in maximum strength (at 90°/s). At week 10, he improved to 15% of injury-induced deficit which suggested he was ready to start running. At week 12, the athlete sustained his first threshold test. At week 16, he performed his first return to sports movement assessment, which revealed a 10% stronger difference between the legs. At week 16, he had his second threshold test. At week 17, his first on-field test revealed a 5% differential deficit between the two legs in the hop test. At week 18, isokinetic test demonstrates that the uninjured leg was 7% stronger than the recovering leg in maximum strength (at 90°/s). At week 20, his second on-field test revealed a 2% difference in hop test; at week 21, his third isokinetic test demonstrated a difference of 5% in maximum strength (at 90°/s). At week 21, he performed his second return to sports movement assessment which revealed a 2% difference between the limbs. Since it was the end of the championship, the team asked him to partake in the playoffs; moreover the player was very motivated to participate in the playoffs also because he was the captain of the team. Together with the player and the team, we decided to let him play even though we were aware of a heightened risk of injury than what is reported in the literature because of two factors: biological recovery times and the results of the tests we performed. In the decision making process about the athlete’s recovery time, it is important to balance the information available from the literature with the desires of the patient to avoid frustration.

Keywords: ACL, football, rehabilitation, return to play

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200 Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for Early Detection and Management of Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Authors: Amarachukwu B. Isiaka, Vivian N. Anakwenze, Chinyere C. Ezemba, Chiamaka R. Ilodinso, Chikodili G. Anaukwu, Chukwuebuka M. Ezeokoli, Ugonna H. Uzoka

Abstract:

Infectious diseases continue to pose significant threats to global public health, necessitating advanced and timely detection methods for effective outbreak management. This study explores the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in the early detection and management of infectious disease outbreaks. Leveraging vast datasets from diverse sources, including electronic health records, social media, and environmental monitoring, AI-driven algorithms are employed to analyze patterns and anomalies indicative of potential outbreaks. Machine learning models, trained on historical data and continuously updated with real-time information, contribute to the identification of emerging threats. The implementation of AI extends beyond detection, encompassing predictive analytics for disease spread and severity assessment. Furthermore, the paper discusses the role of AI in predictive modeling, enabling public health officials to anticipate the spread of infectious diseases and allocate resources proactively. Machine learning algorithms can analyze historical data, climatic conditions, and human mobility patterns to predict potential hotspots and optimize intervention strategies. The study evaluates the current landscape of AI applications in infectious disease surveillance and proposes a comprehensive framework for their integration into existing public health infrastructures. The implementation of an AI-driven early detection system requires collaboration between public health agencies, healthcare providers, and technology experts. Ethical considerations, privacy protection, and data security are paramount in developing a framework that balances the benefits of AI with the protection of individual rights. The synergistic collaboration between AI technologies and traditional epidemiological methods is emphasized, highlighting the potential to enhance a nation's ability to detect, respond to, and manage infectious disease outbreaks in a proactive and data-driven manner. The findings of this research underscore the transformative impact of harnessing AI for early detection and management, offering a promising avenue for strengthening the resilience of public health systems in the face of evolving infectious disease challenges. This paper advocates for the integration of artificial intelligence into the existing public health infrastructure for early detection and management of infectious disease outbreaks. The proposed AI-driven system has the potential to revolutionize the way we approach infectious disease surveillance, providing a more proactive and effective response to safeguard public health.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, early detection, disease surveillance, infectious diseases, outbreak management

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199 Self-Regulation and School Adjustment of Students with Autism Spectrum Disorder in Hong Kong

Authors: T. S. Terence Ma, Irene T. Ho

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Conducting adequate assessment of the challenges students with ASD (Autism Spectrum Disorder) face and the support they need is imperative for promoting their school adjustment. Students with ASD often show deficits in communication, social interaction, emotional regulation, and self-management in learning. While targeting these areas in intervention is often helpful, we argue that not enough attention has been paid to weak self-regulation being a key factor underlying their manifest difficulty in all these areas. Self-regulation refers to one’s ability to moderate their behavioral or affective responses without assistance from others. Especially for students with high functioning autism, who often show problems not so much in acquiring the needed skills but rather in applying those skills appropriately in everyday problem-solving, self-regulation becomes a key to successful adjustment in daily life. Therefore, a greater understanding of the construct of self-regulation, its relationship with other daily skills, and its role in school functioning for students with ASD would generate insights on how students’ school adjustment could be promoted more effectively. There were two focuses in this study. Firstly, we examined the extent to which self-regulation is a distinct construct that is differentiable from other daily skills and the most salient indicators of this construct. Then we tested a model of relationships between self-regulation and other daily school skills as well as their relative and combined effects on school adjustment. A total of 1,345 Grade1 to Grade 6 students with ASD attending mainstream schools in Hong Kong participated in the research. In the first stage of the study, teachers filled out a questionnaire consisting of 136 items assessing a wide range of student skills in social, emotional and learning areas. Results from exploratory factor analysis (EFA) with 673 participants and subsequent confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) with another group of 672 participants showed that there were five distinct factors of school skills, namely (1) communication skills, (2) pro-social behavior, (3) emotional skills, (4) learning management, and (5) self-regulation. Five scales representing these skill dimensions were generated. In the second stage of the study, a model postulating the mediating role of self-regulation for the effects of the other four types of skills on school adjustment was tested with structural equation modeling (SEM). School adjustment was defined in terms of the extent to which the student is accepted well in school, with high engagement in school life and self-esteem as well as good interpersonal relationships. A 5-item scale was used to assess these aspects of school adjustment. Results showed that communication skills, pro-social behavior, emotional skills and learning management had significant effects on school adjustment only indirectly through self-regulation, and their total effects were found to be not high. The results indicate that support rendered to students with ASD focusing only on the training of well-defined skills is not adequate for promoting their inclusion in school. More attention should be paid to the training of self-management with an emphasis on the application of skills backed by self-regulation. Also, other non-skill factors are important in promoting inclusive education.

Keywords: autism, assessment, factor analysis, self-regulation, school adjustment

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198 Role of Vitamin-D in Reducing Need for Supplemental Oxygen Among COVID-19 Patients

Authors: Anita Bajpai, Sarah Duan, Ashlee Erskine, Shehzein Khan, Raymond Kramer

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Introduction: This research focuses on exploring the beneficial effects if any, of Vitamin-D in reducing the need for supplemental oxygen among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Two questions are investigated – Q1)Doeshaving a healthy level of baselineVitamin-D 25-OH (≥ 30ng/ml) help,andQ2) does administering Vitamin-D therapy after-the-factduring inpatient hospitalization help? Methods/Study Design: This is a comprehensive, retrospective, observational study of all inpatients at RUHS from March through December 2020 who tested positive for COVID-19 based on real-time reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction assay of nasal and pharyngeal swabs and rapid assay antigen test. To address Q1, we looked atall N1=182 patients whose baseline plasma Vitamin-D 25-OH was known and who needed supplemental oxygen. Of this, a total of 121 patients had a healthy Vitamin-D level of ≥30 ng/mlwhile the remaining 61 patients had low or borderline (≤ 29.9ng/ml)level. Similarly, for Q2, we looked at a total of N2=893 patients who were given supplemental oxygen, of which713 were not given Vitamin-D and 180 were given Vitamin-D therapy. The numerical value of the maximum amount of oxygen flow rate(dependent variable) administered was recorded for each patient. The mean values and associated standard deviations for each group were calculated. Thesetwo sets of independent data served as the basis for independent, two-sample t-Test statistical analysis. To be accommodative of any reasonable benefitof Vitamin-D, ap-value of 0.10(α< 10%) was set as the cutoff point for statistical significance. Results: Given the large sample sizes, the calculated statistical power for both our studies exceeded the customary norm of 80% or better (β< 0.2). For Q1, the mean value for maximumoxygen flow rate for the group with healthybaseline level of Vitamin-D was 8.6 L/min vs.12.6L/min for those with low or borderline levels, yielding a p-value of 0.07 (p < 0.10) with the conclusion that those with a healthy level of baseline Vitamin-D needed statistically significant lower levels of supplemental oxygen. ForQ2, the mean value for a maximum oxygen flow rate for those not administered Vitamin-Dwas 12.5 L/min vs.12.8L/min for those given Vitamin-D, yielding a p-valueof 0.87 (p > 0.10). We thereforeconcludedthat there was no statistically significant difference in the use of oxygen therapy between those who were or were not administered Vitamin-D after-the-fact in the hospital. Discussion/Conclusion: We found that patients who had healthy levels of Vitamin-D at baseline needed statistically significant lower levels of supplemental oxygen. Vitamin-D is well documented, including in a recent article in the Lancet, for its anti-inflammatory role as an adjuvant in the regulation of cytokines and immune cells. Interestingly, we found no statistically significant advantage for giving Vitamin-D to hospitalized patients. It may be a case of “too little too late”. A randomized clinical trial reported in JAMA also did not find any reduction in hospital stay of patients given Vitamin-D. Such conclusions come with a caveat that any delayed marginal benefits may not have materialized promptly in the presence of a significant inflammatory condition. Since Vitamin-D is a low-cost, low-risk option, it may still be useful on an inpatient basis until more definitive findings are established.

Keywords: COVID-19, vitamin-D, supplemental oxygen, vitamin-D in primary care

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197 Numerical Simulation of Hydraulic Fracture Propagation in Marine-continental Transitional Tight Sandstone Reservoirs by Boundary Element Method: A Case Study of Shanxi Formation in China

Authors: Jiujie Cai, Fengxia LI, Haibo Wang

Abstract:

After years of research, offshore oil and gas development now are shifted to unconventional reservoirs, where multi-stage hydraulic fracturing technology has been widely used. However, the simulation of complex hydraulic fractures in tight reservoirs is faced with geological and engineering difficulties, such as large burial depths, sand-shale interbeds, and complex stress barriers. The objective of this work is to simulate the hydraulic fracture propagation in the tight sandstone matrix of the marine-continental transitional reservoirs, where the Shanxi Formation in Tianhuan syncline of the Dongsheng gas field was used as the research target. The characteristic parameters of the vertical rock samples with rich beddings were clarified through rock mechanics experiments. The influence of rock mechanical parameters, vertical stress difference of pay-zone and bedding layer, and fracturing parameters (such as injection rates, fracturing fluid viscosity, and number of perforation clusters within single stage) on fracture initiation and propagation were investigated. In this paper, a 3-D fracture propagation model was built to investigate the complex fracture propagation morphology by boundary element method, considering the strength of bonding surface between layers, vertical stress difference and fracturing parameters (such as injection rates, fluid volume and viscosity). The research results indicate that on the condition of vertical stress difference (3 MPa), the fracture height can break through and enter the upper interlayer when the thickness of the overlying bedding layer is 6-9 m, considering effect of the weak bonding surface between layers. The fracture propagates within the pay zone when overlying interlayer is greater than 13 m. Difference in fluid volume distribution between clusters could be more than 20% when the stress difference of each cluster in the segment exceeds 2MPa. Fracture cluster in high stress zones cannot initiate when the stress difference in the segment exceeds 5MPa. The simulation results of fracture height are much higher if the effect of weak bonding surface between layers is not involved. By increasing the injection rates, increasing fracturing fluid viscosity, and reducing the number of clusters within single stage can promote the fracture height propagation through layers. Optimizing the perforation position and reducing the number of perforations can promote the uniform expansion of fractures. Typical curves of fracture height estimation were established for the tight sandstone of the Lower Permian Shanxi Formation. The model results have good consistency with micro-seismic monitoring results of hydraulic fracturing in Well 1HF.

Keywords: fracture propagation, boundary element method, fracture height, offshore oil and gas, marine-continental transitional reservoirs, rock mechanics experiment

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196 Impact of Customer Experience Quality on Loyalty of Mobile and Fixed Broadband Services: Case Study of Telecom Egypt Group

Authors: Nawal Alawad, Passent Ibrahim Tantawi, Mohamed Abdel Salam Ragheb

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Providing customers with quality experiences has been confirmed to be a sustainable, competitive advantage with a distinct financial impact for companies. The success of service providers now relies on their ability to provide customer-centric services. The importance of perceived service quality and customer experience is widely recognized. The focus of this research is in the area of mobile and fixed broadband services. This study is of dual importance both academically and practically. Academically, this research applies a new model investigating the impact of customer experience quality on loyalty based on modifying the multiple-item scale for measuring customers’ service experience in a new area and did not depend on the traditional models. The integrated scale embraces four dimensions: service experience, outcome focus, moments of truth and peace of mind. In addition, it gives a scientific explanation for this relationship so this research fill the gap in such relations in which no one correlate or give explanations for these relations before using such integrated model and this is the first time to apply such modified and integrated new model in telecom field. Practically, this research gives insights to marketers and practitioners to improve customer loyalty through evolving the experience quality of broadband customers which is interpreted to suggested outcomes: purchase, commitment, repeat purchase and word-of-mouth, this approach is one of the emerging topics in service marketing. Data were collected through 412 questionnaires and analyzed by using structural equation modeling.Findings revealed that both outcome focus and moments of truth have a significant impact on loyalty while both service experience and peace of mind have insignificant impact on loyalty.In addition, it was found that 72% of the variation occurring in loyalty is explained by the model. The researcher also measured the net prompters score and gave explanation for the results. Furthermore, assessed customer’s priorities of broadband services. The researcher recommends that the findings of this research will extend to be considered in the future plans of Telecom Egypt Group. In addition, to be applied in the same industry especially in the developing countries that have the same circumstances with similar service settings. This research is a positive contribution in service marketing, particularly in telecom industry for making marketing more reliable as managers can relate investments in service experience directly with the performance closest to income for instance, repurchasing behavior, positive word of mouth and, commitment. Finally, the researcher recommends that future studies should consider this model to explain significant marketing outcomes such as share of wallet and ultimately profitability.

Keywords: broadband services, customer experience quality, loyalty, net promoters score

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195 Numerical Investigation of Thermal Energy Storage Panel Using Nanoparticle Enhanced Phase Change Material for Micro-Satellites

Authors: Jelvin Tom Sebastian, Vinod Yeldho Baby

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In space, electronic devices are constantly attacked with radiation, which causes certain parts to fail or behave in unpredictable ways. To advance the thermal controllability for microsatellites, we need a new approach and thermal control system that is smaller than that on conventional satellites and that demand no electric power. Heat exchange inside the microsatellites is not that easy as conventional satellites due to the smaller size. With slight mass gain and no electric power, accommodating heat using phase change materials (PCMs) is a strong candidate for solving micro satellites' thermal difficulty. In other words, PCMs can absorb or produce heat in the form of latent heat, changing their phase and minimalizing the temperature fluctuation around the phase change point. The main restriction for these systems is thermal conductivity weakness of common PCMs. As PCM is having low thermal conductivity, it increases the melting and solidification time, which is not suitable for specific application like electronic cooling. In order to increase the thermal conductivity nanoparticles are introduced. Adding the nanoparticles in base PCM increases the thermal conductivity. Increase in weight concentration increases the thermal conductivity. This paper numerically investigates the thermal energy storage panel with nanoparticle enhanced phase change material. Silver nanostructure have increased the thermal properties of the base PCM, eicosane. Different weight concentration (1, 2, 3.5, 5, 6.5, 8, 10%) of silver enhanced phase change material was considered. Both steady state and transient analysis was performed to compare the characteristics of nanoparticle enhanced phase material at different heat loads. Results showed that in steady state, the temperature near the front panel reduced and temperature on NePCM panel increased as the weight concentration increased. With the increase in thermal conductivity more heat was absorbed into the NePCM panel. In transient analysis, it was found that the effect of nanoparticle concentration on maximum temperature of the system was reduced as the melting point of the material reduced with increase in weight concentration. But for the heat load of maximum 20W, the model with NePCM did not attain the melting point temperature. Therefore it showed that the model with NePCM is capable of holding more heat load. In order to study the heat load capacity double the load is given, maximum of 40W was given as first half of the cycle and the other is given constant OW. Higher temperature was obtained comparing the other heat load. The panel maintained a constant temperature for a long duration according to the NePCM melting point. In both the analysis, the uniformity of temperature of the TESP was shown. Using Ag-NePCM it allows maintaining a constant peak temperature near the melting point. Therefore, by altering the weight concentration of the Ag-NePCM it is possible to create an optimum operating temperature required for the effective working of the electronics components.

Keywords: carbon-fiber-reinforced polymer, micro/nano-satellite, nanoparticle phase change material, thermal energy storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 187
194 Polyurethane Membrane Mechanical Property Study for a Novel Carotid Covered Stent

Authors: Keping Zuo, Jia Yin Chia, Gideon Praveen Kumar Vijayakumar, Foad Kabinejadian, Fangsen Cui, Pei Ho, Hwa Liang Leo

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Carotid artery is the major vessel supplying blood to the brain. Carotid artery stenosis is one of the three major causes of stroke and the stroke is the fourth leading cause of death and the first leading cause of disability in most developed countries. Although there is an increasing interest in carotid artery stenting for treatment of cervical carotid artery bifurcation therosclerotic disease, currently available bare metal stents cannot provide an adequate protection against the detachment of the plaque fragments over diseased carotid artery, which could result in the formation of micro-emboli and subsequent stroke. Our research group has recently developed a novel preferential covered-stent for carotid artery aims to prevent friable fragments of atherosclerotic plaques from flowing into the cerebral circulation, and yet retaining the ability to preserve the flow of the external carotid artery. The preliminary animal studies have demonstrated the potential of this novel covered-stent design for the treatment of carotid therosclerotic stenosis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the biomechanical property of PU membrane of different concentration configurations in order to refine the stent coating technique and enhance the clinical performance of our novel carotid covered stent. Results from this study also provide necessary material property information crucial for accurate simulation analysis for our stents. Method: Medical grade Polyurethane (ChronoFlex AR) was used to prepare PU membrane specimens. Different PU membrane configurations were subjected to uniaxial test: 22%, 16%, and 11% PU solution were made by mixing the original solution with proper amount of the Dimethylacetamide (DMAC). The specimens were then immersed in physiological saline solution for 24 hours before test. All specimens were moistened with saline solution before mounting and subsequent uniaxial testing. The specimens were preconditioned by loading the PU membrane sample to a peak stress of 5.5 Mpa for 10 consecutive cycles at a rate of 50 mm/min. The specimens were then stretched to failure at the same loading rate. Result: The results showed that the stress-strain response curves of all PU membrane samples exhibited nonlinear characteristic. For the ultimate failure stress, 22% PU membrane was significantly higher than 16% (p<0.05). In general, our preliminary results showed that lower concentration PU membrane is stiffer than the higher concentration one. From the perspective of mechanical properties, 22% PU membrane is a better choice for the covered stent. Interestingly, the hyperelastic Ogden model is able to accurately capture the nonlinear, isotropic stress-strain behavior of PU membrane with R2 of 0.9977 ± 0.00172. This result will be useful for future biomechanical analysis of our stent designs and will play an important role for computational modeling of our covered stent fatigue study.

Keywords: carotid artery, covered stent, nonlinear, hyperelastic, stress, strain

Procedia PDF Downloads 284
193 The Charge Exchange and Mixture Formation Model in the ASz-62IR Radial Aircraft Engine

Authors: Pawel Magryta, Tytus Tulwin, Paweł Karpiński

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The ASz62IR engine is a radial aircraft engine with 9 cylinders. This object is produced by the Polish company WSK "PZL-KALISZ" S.A. This is engine is currently being developed by the above company and Lublin University of Technology. In order to provide an effective work of the technological development of this unit it was decided to made the simulation model. The model of ASz-62IR was developed with AVL BOOST software which is a tool dedicated to the one-dimensional modeling of internal combustion engines. This model can be used to calculate parameters of an air and fuel flow in an intake system including charging devices as well as combustion and exhaust flow to the environment. The main purpose of this model is the analysis of the charge exchange and mixture formation in this engine. For this purpose, the model consists of elements such: as air inlet, throttle system, compressor connector, charging compressor, inlet pipes and injectors, outlet pipes, fuel injection and model of fuel mixing and evaporation. The model of charge exchange and mixture formation was based on the model of mass flow rate in intake and exhaust pipes, and also on the calculation of gas properties values like gas constant or thermal capacity. This model was based on the equations to describe isentropic flow. The energy equation to describe flow under steady conditions was transformed into the mass flow equation. In the model the flow coefficient μσ was used, that varies with the stroke/valve opening and was determined in a steady flow state. The geometry of the inlet channels and other key components was mapped with reference to the technical documentation of the engine and empirical measurements of the structure elements. The volume of elements on the charge flow path between the air inlet and the exhaust outlet was measured by the CAD mapping of the structure. Taken from the technical documentation, the original characteristics of the compressor engine was entered into the model. Additionally, the model uses a general model for the transport of chemical compounds of the mixture. There are 7 compounds used, i.e. fuel, O2, N2, CO2, H2O, CO, H2. A gasoline fuel of a calorific value of 43.5 MJ/kg and an air mass fraction for stoichiometric mixture of 14.5 were used. Indirect injection into the intake manifold is used in this model. The model assumes the following simplifications: the mixture is homogenous at the beginning of combustion, accordingly, mixture stoichiometric coefficient A/F remains constant during combustion, combusted and non-combusted charges show identical pressures and temperatures although their compositions change. As a result of the simulation studies based on the model described above, the basic parameters of combustion process, charge exchange, mixture formation in cylinders were obtained. The AVL Boost software is very useful for the piston engine performance simulations. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: aviation propulsion, AVL Boost, engine model, charge exchange, mixture formation

Procedia PDF Downloads 294
192 The Quantum Theory of Music and Languages

Authors: Mballa Abanda Serge, Henda Gnakate Biba, Romaric Guemno Kuate, Akono Rufine Nicole, Petfiang Sidonie, Bella Sidonie

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The main hypotheses proposed around the definition of the syllable and of music, of the common origin of music and language, should lead the reader to reflect on the cross-cutting questions raised by the debate on the notion of universals in linguistics and musicology. These are objects of controversy, and there lies its interest: the debate raises questions that are at the heart of theories on language. It is an inventive, original and innovative research thesis. The main hypotheses proposed around the definition of the syllable and of music, of the common origin of music and language, should lead the reader to reflect on the cross-cutting questions raised by the debate on the notion of universals in linguistics and musicology. These are objects of controversy, and there lies its interest: the debate raises questions that are at the heart of theories on language. It is an inventive, original and innovative research thesis. A contribution to the theoretical, musicological, ethno musicological and linguistic conceptualization of languages, giving rise to the practice of interlocution between the social and cognitive sciences, the activities of artistic creation and the question of modeling in the human sciences: mathematics, computer science, translation automation and artificial intelligence. When you apply this theory to any text of a folksong of a world-tone language, you do not only piece together the exact melody, rhythm, and harmonies of that song as if you knew it in advance but also the exact speaking of this language. The author believes that the issue of the disappearance of tonal languages and their preservation has been structurally resolved, as well as one of the greatest cultural equations related to the composition and creation of tonal, polytonal and random music. The experimentation confirming the theorization, It designed a semi-digital, semi-analog application which translates the tonal languages of Africa (about 2,100 languages) into blues, jazz, world music, polyphonic music, tonal and anatonal music and deterministic and random music). To test this application, I use a music reading and writing software that allows me to collect the data extracted from my mother tongue, which is already modeled in the musical staves saved in the ethnographic (semiotic) dictionary for automatic translation ( volume 2 of the book). Translation is done (from writing to writing, from writing to speech and from writing to music). Mode of operation: you type a text on your computer, a structured song (chorus-verse), and you command the machine a melody of blues, jazz and world music or variety etc. The software runs, giving you the option to choose harmonies, and then you select your melody.

Keywords: music, entanglement, langauge, science

Procedia PDF Downloads 54
191 Development of an Interface between BIM-model and an AI-based Control System for Building Facades with Integrated PV Technology

Authors: Moser Stephan, Lukasser Gerald, Weitlaner Robert

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Urban structures will be used more intensively in the future through redensification or new planned districts with high building densities. Especially, to achieve positive energy balances like requested for Positive Energy Districts (PED) the single use of roofs is not sufficient for dense urban areas. However, the increasing share of window significantly reduces the facade area available for use in PV generation. Through the use of PV technology at other building components, such as external venetian blinds, onsite generation can be maximized and standard functionalities of this product can be positively extended. While offering advantages in terms of infrastructure, sustainability in the use of resources and efficiency, these systems require an increased optimization in planning and control strategies of buildings. External venetian blinds with PV technology require an intelligent control concept to meet the required demands such as maximum power generation, glare prevention, high daylight autonomy, avoidance of summer overheating but also use of passive solar gains in wintertime. Today, geometric representation of outdoor spaces and at the building level, three-dimensional geometric information is available for planning with Building Information Modeling (BIM). In a research project, a web application which is called HELLA DECART was developed to provide this data structure to extract the data required for the simulation from the BIM models and to make it usable for the calculations and coupled simulations. The investigated object is uploaded as an IFC file to this web application and includes the object as well as the neighboring buildings and possible remote shading. This tool uses a ray tracing method to determine possible glare from solar reflections of a neighboring building as well as near and far shadows per window on the object. Subsequently, an annual estimate of the sunlight per window is calculated by taking weather data into account. This optimized daylight assessment per window provides the ability to calculate an estimation of the potential power generation at the integrated PV on the venetian blind but also for the daylight and solar entry. As a next step, these results of the calculations as well as all necessary parameters for the thermal simulation can be provided. The overall aim of this workflow is to advance the coordination between the BIM model and coupled building simulation with the resulting shading and daylighting system with the artificial lighting system and maximum power generation in a control system. In the research project Powershade, an AI based control concept for PV integrated façade elements with coupled simulation results is investigated. The developed automated workflow concept in this paper is tested by using an office living lab at the HELLA company.

Keywords: BIPV, building simulation, optimized control strategy, planning tool

Procedia PDF Downloads 83
190 Multi-Objectives Genetic Algorithm for Optimizing Machining Process Parameters

Authors: Dylan Santos De Pinho, Nabil Ouerhani

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Energy consumption of machine-tools is becoming critical for machine-tool builders and end-users because of economic, ecological and legislation-related reasons. Many machine-tool builders are seeking for solutions that allow the reduction of energy consumption of machine-tools while preserving the same productivity rate and the same quality of machined parts. In this paper, we present the first results of a project conducted jointly by academic and industrial partners to reduce the energy consumption of a Swiss-Type lathe. We employ genetic algorithms to find optimal machining parameters – the set of parameters that lead to the best trade-off between energy consumption, part quality and tool lifetime. Three main machining process parameters are considered in our optimization technique, namely depth of cut, spindle rotation speed and material feed rate. These machining process parameters have been identified as the most influential ones in the configuration of the Swiss-type machining process. A state-of-the-art multi-objective genetic algorithm has been used. The algorithm combines three fitness functions, which are objective functions that permit to evaluate a set of parameters against the three objectives: energy consumption, quality of the machined parts, and tool lifetime. In this paper, we focus on the investigation of the fitness function related to energy consumption. Four different energy consumption related fitness functions have been investigated and compared. The first fitness function refers to the Kienzle cutting force model. The second fitness function uses the Material Removal Rate (RMM) as an indicator of energy consumption. The two other fitness functions are non-deterministic, learning-based functions. One fitness function uses a simple Neural Network to learn the relation between the process parameters and the energy consumption from experimental data. Another fitness function uses Lasso regression to determine the same relation. The goal is, then, to find out which fitness functions predict best the energy consumption of a Swiss-Type machining process for the given set of machining process parameters. Once determined, these functions may be used for optimization purposes – determine the optimal machining process parameters leading to minimum energy consumption. The performance of the four fitness functions has been evaluated. The Tornos DT13 Swiss-Type Lathe has been used to carry out the experiments. A mechanical part including various Swiss-Type machining operations has been selected for the experiments. The evaluation process starts with generating a set of CNC (Computer Numerical Control) programs for machining the part at hand. Each CNC program considers a different set of machining process parameters. During the machining process, the power consumption of the spindle is measured. All collected data are assigned to the appropriate CNC program and thus to the set of machining process parameters. The evaluation approach consists in calculating the correlation between the normalized measured power consumption and the normalized power consumption prediction for each of the four fitness functions. The evaluation shows that the Lasso and Neural Network fitness functions have the highest correlation coefficient with 97%. The fitness function “Material Removal Rate” (MRR) has a correlation coefficient of 90%, whereas the Kienzle-based fitness function has a correlation coefficient of 80%.

Keywords: adaptive machining, genetic algorithms, smart manufacturing, parameters optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 123
189 Screens Design and Application for Sustainable Buildings

Authors: Fida Isam Abdulhafiz

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Traditional vernacular architecture in the United Arab Emirates constituted namely of adobe houses with a limited number of openings in their facades. The thick mud and rubble walls and wooden window screens protected its inhabitants from the harsh desert climate and provided them with privacy and fulfilled their comfort zone needs to an extent. However, with the rise of the immediate post petroleum era reinforced concrete villas with glass and steel technology has replaced traditional vernacular dwellings. And more load was put on the mechanical cooling systems to ensure the satisfaction of today’s more demanding doweling inhabitants. However, In the early 21at century professionals started to pay more attention to the carbon footprint caused by the built constructions. In addition, many studies and innovative approaches are now dedicated to lower the impact of the existing operating buildings on their surrounding environments. The UAE government agencies started to regulate that aim to revive sustainable and environmental design through Local and international building codes and urban design policies such as Estidama and LEED. The focus in this paper is on the reduction of the emissions resulting from the use of energy sources in the cooling and heating systems, and that would be through using innovative screen designs and façade solutions to provide a green footprint and aesthetic architectural icons. Screens are one of the popular innovative techniques that can be added in the design process or used in existing building as a renovation techniques to develop a passive green buildings. Preparing future architects to understand the importance of environmental design was attempted through physical modelling of window screens as an educational means to combine theory with a hands on teaching approach. Designing screens proved to be a popular technique that helped them understand the importance of sustainable design and passive cooling. After creating models of prototype screens, several tests were conducted to calculate the amount of Sun, light and wind that goes through the screens affecting the heat load and light entering the building. Theory further explored concepts of green buildings and material that produce low carbon emissions. This paper highlights the importance of hands on experience for student architects and how physical modelling helped rise eco awareness in Design studio. The paper will study different types of façade screens and shading devices developed by Architecture students and explains the production of diverse patterns for traditional screens by student architects based on sustainable design concept that works properly with the climate requirements in the Middle East region.

Keywords: building’s screens modeling, façade design, sustainable architecture, sustainable dwellings, sustainable education

Procedia PDF Downloads 266
188 Validation of Asymptotic Techniques to Predict Bistatic Radar Cross Section

Authors: M. Pienaar, J. W. Odendaal, J. C. Smit, J. Joubert

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Simulations are commonly used to predict the bistatic radar cross section (RCS) of military targets since characterization measurements can be expensive and time consuming. It is thus important to accurately predict the bistatic RCS of targets. Computational electromagnetic (CEM) methods can be used for bistatic RCS prediction. CEM methods are divided into full-wave and asymptotic methods. Full-wave methods are numerical approximations to the exact solution of Maxwell’s equations. These methods are very accurate but are computationally very intensive and time consuming. Asymptotic techniques make simplifying assumptions in solving Maxwell's equations and are thus less accurate but require less computational resources and time. Asymptotic techniques can thus be very valuable for the prediction of bistatic RCS of electrically large targets, due to the decreased computational requirements. This study extends previous work by validating the accuracy of asymptotic techniques to predict bistatic RCS through comparison with full-wave simulations as well as measurements. Validation is done with canonical structures as well as complex realistic aircraft models instead of only looking at a complex slicy structure. The slicy structure is a combination of canonical structures, including cylinders, corner reflectors and cubes. Validation is done over large bistatic angles and at different polarizations. Bistatic RCS measurements were conducted in a compact range, at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. The measurements were performed at different polarizations from 2 GHz to 6 GHz. Fixed bistatic angles of β = 30.8°, 45° and 90° were used. The measurements were calibrated with an active calibration target. The EM simulation tool FEKO was used to generate simulated results. The full-wave multi-level fast multipole method (MLFMM) simulated results together with the measured data were used as reference for validation. The accuracy of physical optics (PO) and geometrical optics (GO) was investigated. Differences relating to amplitude, lobing structure and null positions were observed between the asymptotic, full-wave and measured data. PO and GO were more accurate at angles close to the specular scattering directions and the accuracy seemed to decrease as the bistatic angle increased. At large bistatic angles PO did not perform well due to the shadow regions not being treated appropriately. PO also did not perform well for canonical structures where multi-bounce was the main scattering mechanism. PO and GO do not account for diffraction but these inaccuracies tended to decrease as the electrical size of objects increased. It was evident that both asymptotic techniques do not properly account for bistatic structural shadowing. Specular scattering was calculated accurately even if targets did not meet the electrically large criteria. It was evident that the bistatic RCS prediction performance of PO and GO depends on incident angle, frequency, target shape and observation angle. The improved computational efficiency of the asymptotic solvers yields a major advantage over full-wave solvers and measurements; however, there is still much room for improvement of the accuracy of these asymptotic techniques.

Keywords: asymptotic techniques, bistatic RCS, geometrical optics, physical optics

Procedia PDF Downloads 232
187 Ammonia Bunkering Spill Scenarios: Modelling Plume’s Behaviour and Potential to Trigger Harmful Algal Blooms in the Singapore Straits

Authors: Bryan Low

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In the coming decades, the global maritime industry will face a most formidable environmental challenge -achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. To meet this target, the Maritime Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has worked to establish green shipping and digital corridors with ports of several other countries around the world where ships will use low-carbon alternative fuels such as ammonia for power generation. While this paradigm shift to the bunkering of greener fuels is encouraging, fuels like ammonia will also introduce a new and unique type of environmental risk in the unlikely scenario of a spill. While numerous modelling studies have been conducted for oil spills and their associated environmental impact on coastal and marine ecosystems, ammonia spills are comparatively less well understood. For example, there is a knowledge gap regarding how the complex hydrodynamic conditions of the Singapore Straits may influence the dispersion of a hypothetical ammonia plume, which has different physical and chemical properties compared to an oil slick. Chemically, ammonia can be absorbed by phytoplankton, thus altering the balance of the marine nitrogen cycle. Biologically, ammonia generally serves the role of a nutrient in coastal ecosystems at lower concentrations. However, at higher concentrations, it has been found to be toxic to many local species. It may also have the potential to trigger eutrophication and harmful algal blooms (HABs) in coastal waters, depending on local hydrodynamic conditions. Thus, the key objective of this research paper is to support the development of a model-based forecasting system that can predict ammonia plume behaviour in coastal waters, given prevailing hydrodynamic conditions and their environmental impact. This will be essential as ammonia bunkering becomes more commonplace in Singapore’s ports and around the world. Specifically, this system must be able to assess the HAB-triggering potential of an ammonia plume, as well as its lethal and sub-lethal toxic effects on local species. This will allow the relevant authorities to better plan risk mitigation measures or choose a time window with the ideal hydrodynamic conditions to conduct ammonia bunkering operations with minimal risk. In this paper, we present the first part of such a forecasting system: a jointly coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model that can capture how advection-diffusion processes driven by ocean currents influence plume behaviour and how the plume interacts with the marine nitrogen cycle. The model is then applied to various ammonia spill scenarios where the results are discussed in the context of current ammonia toxicity guidelines, impact on local ecosystems, and mitigation measures for future bunkering operations conducted in the Singapore Straits.

Keywords: ammonia bunkering, forecasting, harmful algal blooms, hydrodynamics, marine nitrogen cycle, oceanography, water quality modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 46
186 Interfacial Reactions between Aromatic Polyamide Fibers and Epoxy Matrix

Authors: Khodzhaberdi Allaberdiev

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In order to understand the interactions on the interface polyamide fibers and epoxy matrix in fiber- reinforced composites were investigated industrial aramid fibers: armos, svm, terlon using individual epoxy matrix components, epoxies: diglycidyl ether of bisphenol A (DGEBA), three- and diglycidyl derivatives of m, p-amino-, m, p-oxy-, o, m,p-carboxybenzoic acids, the models: curing agent, aniline and the compound, that depict of the structure the primary addition reaction the amine to the epoxy resin, N-di (oxyethylphenoxy) aniline. The chemical structure of the surface of untreated and treated polyamide fibers analyzed using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). The impregnation of fibers with epoxy matrix components and N-di (oxyethylphenoxy) aniline has been carried out by heating 150˚C (6h). The optimum fiber loading is at 65%.The result a thermal treatment is the covalent bonds formation , derived from a combined of homopolymerization and crosslinking mechanisms in the interfacial region between the epoxy resin and the surface of fibers. The reactivity of epoxy resins on interface in microcomposites (MC) also depends from processing aids treated on surface of fiber and the absorbance moisture. The influences these factors as evidenced by the conversion of epoxy groups values in impregnated with DGEBA of the terlons: industrial, dried (in vacuum) and purified samples: 5.20 %, 4.65% and 14.10%, respectively. The same tendency for svm and armos fibers is observed. The changes in surface composition of these MC were monitored by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). In the case of the purified fibers, functional groups of fibers act as well as a catalyst and curing agent of epoxy resin. It is found that the value of the epoxy groups conversion for reinforced formulations depends on aromatic polyamides nature and decreases in the order: armos >svm> terlon. This difference is due of the structural characteristics of fibers. The interfacial interactions also examined between polyglycidyl esters substituted benzoic acids and polyamide fibers in the MC. It is found that on interfacial interactions these systems influences as well as the structure and the isomerism of epoxides. The IR-spectrum impregnated fibers with aniline showed that the polyamide fibers appreciably with aniline do not react. FTIR results of treated fibers with N-di (oxyethylphenoxy) aniline fibers revealed dramatically changes IR-characteristic of the OH groups of the amino alcohol. These observations indicated hydrogen bondings and covalent interactions between amino alcohol and functional groups of fibers. This result also confirms appearance of the exo peak on Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) curve of the MC. Finally, the theoretical evaluation non-covalent interactions between individual epoxy matrix components and fibers has been performed using the benzanilide and its derivative contaning the benzimidazole moiety as a models of terlon and svm,armos, respectively. Quantum-topological analysis also demonstrated the existence hydrogen bond between amide group of models and epoxy matrix components.All the results indicated that on the interface polyamide fibers and epoxy matrix exist not only covalent, but and non-covalent the interactions during the preparation of MC.

Keywords: epoxies, interface, modeling, polyamide fibers

Procedia PDF Downloads 248
185 Self-Organizing Maps for Exploration of Partially Observed Data and Imputation of Missing Values in the Context of the Manufacture of Aircraft Engines

Authors: Sara Rejeb, Catherine Duveau, Tabea Rebafka

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To monitor the production process of turbofan aircraft engines, multiple measurements of various geometrical parameters are systematically recorded on manufactured parts. Engine parts are subject to extremely high standards as they can impact the performance of the engine. Therefore, it is essential to analyze these databases to better understand the influence of the different parameters on the engine's performance. Self-organizing maps are unsupervised neural networks which achieve two tasks simultaneously: they visualize high-dimensional data by projection onto a 2-dimensional map and provide clustering of the data. This technique has become very popular for data exploration since it provides easily interpretable results and a meaningful global view of the data. As such, self-organizing maps are usually applied to aircraft engine condition monitoring. As databases in this field are huge and complex, they naturally contain multiple missing entries for various reasons. The classical Kohonen algorithm to compute self-organizing maps is conceived for complete data only. A naive approach to deal with partially observed data consists in deleting items or variables with missing entries. However, this requires a sufficient number of complete individuals to be fairly representative of the population; otherwise, deletion leads to a considerable loss of information. Moreover, deletion can also induce bias in the analysis results. Alternatively, one can first apply a common imputation method to create a complete dataset and then apply the Kohonen algorithm. However, the choice of the imputation method may have a strong impact on the resulting self-organizing map. Our approach is to address simultaneously the two problems of computing a self-organizing map and imputing missing values, as these tasks are not independent. In this work, we propose an extension of self-organizing maps for partially observed data, referred to as missSOM. First, we introduce a criterion to be optimized, that aims at defining simultaneously the best self-organizing map and the best imputations for the missing entries. As such, missSOM is also an imputation method for missing values. To minimize the criterion, we propose an iterative algorithm that alternates the learning of a self-organizing map and the imputation of missing values. Moreover, we develop an accelerated version of the algorithm by entwining the iterations of the Kohonen algorithm with the updates of the imputed values. This method is efficiently implemented in R and will soon be released on CRAN. Compared to the standard Kohonen algorithm, it does not come with any additional cost in terms of computing time. Numerical experiments illustrate that missSOM performs well in terms of both clustering and imputation compared to the state of the art. In particular, it turns out that missSOM is robust to the missingness mechanism, which is in contrast to many imputation methods that are appropriate for only a single mechanism. This is an important property of missSOM as, in practice, the missingness mechanism is often unknown. An application to measurements on one type of part is also provided and shows the practical interest of missSOM.

Keywords: imputation method of missing data, partially observed data, robustness to missingness mechanism, self-organizing maps

Procedia PDF Downloads 128
184 A Design for Supply Chain Model by Integrated Evaluation of Design Value and Supply Chain Cost

Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Jia-Shu Li

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To design a product with the given product requirement and design objective, there can be alternative ways to propose the detailed design specifications of the product. In the design modeling stage, alternative design cases with detailed specifications can be modeled to fulfill the product requirement and design objective. Therefore, in the design evaluation stage, it is required to perform an evaluation of the alternative design cases for deciding the final design. The purpose of this research is to develop a product evaluation model for evaluating the alternative design cases by integrated evaluating the criteria of functional design, Kansei design, and design for supply chain. The criteria in the functional design group include primary function, expansion function, improved function, and new function. The criteria in the Kansei group include geometric shape, dimension, surface finish, and layout. The criteria in the design for supply chain group include material, manufacturing process, assembly, and supply chain operation. From the point of view of value and cost, the criteria in the functional design group and Kansei design group represent the design value of the product. The criteria in the design for supply chain group represent the supply chain and manufacturing cost of the product. It is required to evaluate the design value and the supply chain cost to determine the final design. For the purpose of evaluating the criteria in the three criteria groups, a fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) method is presented to evaluate a weighted index by calculating the total relational values among the three groups. A method using the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is used to compare and rank the design alternative cases according to the weighted index using the total relational values of the criteria. The final decision of a design case can be determined by using the ordered ranking. For example, the design case with the top ranking can be selected as the final design case. Based on the criteria in the evaluation, the design objective can be achieved with a combined and weighted effect of the design value and manufacturing cost. An example product is demonstrated and illustrated in the presentation. It shows that the design evaluation model is useful for integrated evaluation of functional design, Kansei design, and design for supply chain to determine the best design case and achieve the design objective.

Keywords: design for supply chain, design evaluation, functional design, Kansei design, fuzzy analytic network process, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution

Procedia PDF Downloads 295
183 Mechanical Response Investigation of Wafer Probing Test with Vertical Cobra Probe via the Experiment and Transient Dynamic Simulation

Authors: De-Shin Liu, Po-Chun Wen, Zhen-Wei Zhuang, Hsueh-Chih Liu, Pei-Chen Huang

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Wafer probing tests play an important role in semiconductor manufacturing procedures in accordance with the yield and reliability requirement of the wafer after the backend-of-the-line process. Accordingly, the stable physical and electrical contact between the probe and the tested wafer during wafer probing is regarded as an essential issue in identifying the known good die. The probe card can be integrated with multiple probe needles, which are classified as vertical, cantilever and micro-electro-mechanical systems type probe selections. Among all potential probe types, the vertical probe has several advantages as compared with other probe types, including maintainability, high probe density and feasibility for high-speed wafer testing. In the present study, the mechanical response of the wafer probing test with the vertical cobra probe on 720 μm thick silicon (Si) substrate with a 1.4 μm thick aluminum (Al) pad is investigated by the experiment and transient dynamic simulation approach. Because the deformation mechanism of the vertical cobra probe is determined by both bending and buckling mechanisms, the stable correlation between contact forces and overdrive (OD) length must be carefully verified. Moreover, the decent OD length with corresponding contact force contributed to piercing the native oxide layer of the Al pad and preventing the probing test-induced damage on the interconnect system. Accordingly, the scratch depth of the Al pad under various OD lengths is estimated by the atomic force microscope (AFM) and simulation work. In the wafer probing test configuration, the contact phenomenon between the probe needle and the tested object introduced large deformation and twisting of mesh gridding, causing the subsequent numerical divergence issue. For this reason, the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian method is utilized in the present simulation work to conquer the aforementioned issue. The analytic results revealed a slight difference when the OD is considered as 40 μm, and the simulated is almost identical to the measured scratch depths of the Al pad under higher OD lengths up to 70 μm. This phenomenon can be attributed to the unstable contact of the probe at low OD length with the scratch depth below 30% of Al pad thickness, and the contact status will be being stable when the scratch depth over 30% of pad thickness. The splash of the Al pad is observed by the AFM, and the splashed Al debris accumulates on a specific side; this phenomenon is successfully simulated in the transient dynamic simulation. Thus, the preferred testing OD lengths are found as 45 μm to 70 μm, and the corresponding scratch depths on the Al pad are represented as 31.4% and 47.1% of Al pad thickness, respectively. The investigation approach demonstrated in this study contributed to analyzing the mechanical response of wafer probing test configuration under large strain conditions and assessed the geometric designs and material selections of probe needles to meet the requirement of high resolution and high-speed wafer-level probing test for thinned wafer application.

Keywords: wafer probing test, vertical probe, probe mark, mechanical response, FEA simulation

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182 Rheological Characterization of Polysaccharide Extracted from Camelina Meal as a New Source of Thickening Agent

Authors: Mohammad Anvari, Helen S. Joyner (Melito)

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Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz is an oilseed crop currently used for the production of biofuels. However, the low price of diesel and gasoline has made camelina an unprofitable crop for farmers, leading to declining camelina production in the US. Hence, the ability to utilize camelina byproduct (defatted meal) after oil extraction would be a pivotal factor for promoting the economic value of the plant. Camelina defatted meal is rich in proteins and polysaccharides. The great diversity in the polysaccharide structural features provides a unique opportunity for use in food formulations as thickeners, gelling agents, emulsifiers, and stabilizers. There is currently a great degree of interest in the study of novel plant polysaccharides, as they can be derived from readily accessible sources and have potential application in a wide range of food formulations. However, there are no published studies on the polysaccharide extracted from camelina meal, and its potential industrial applications remain largely underexploited. Rheological properties are a key functional feature of polysaccharides and are highly dependent on the material composition and molecular structure. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the rheological properties of the polysaccharide extracted from camelina meal at different conditions to obtain insight on the molecular characteristics of the polysaccharide. Flow and dynamic mechanical behaviors were determined under different temperatures (5-50°C) and concentrations (1-6% w/v). Additionally, the zeta potential of the polysaccharide dispersion was measured at different pHs (2-11) and a biopolymer concentration of 0.05% (w/v). Shear rate sweep data revealed that the camelina polysaccharide displayed shear thinning (pseudoplastic) behavior, which is typical of polymer systems. The polysaccharide dispersion (1% w/v) showed no significant changes in viscosity with temperature, which makes it a promising ingredient in products requiring texture stability over a range of temperatures. However, the viscosity increased significantly with increased concentration, indicating that camelina polysaccharide can be used in food products at different concentrations to produce a range of textures. Dynamic mechanical spectra showed similar trends. The temperature had little effect on viscoelastic moduli. However, moduli were strongly affected by concentration: samples exhibited concentrated solution behavior at low concentrations (1-2% w/v) and weak gel behavior at higher concentrations (4-6% w/v). These rheological properties can be used for designing and modeling of liquid and semisolid products. Zeta potential affects the intensity of molecular interactions and molecular conformation and can alter solubility, stability, and eventually, the functionality of the materials as their environment changes. In this study, the zeta potential value significantly decreased from 0.0 to -62.5 as pH increased from 2 to 11, indicating that pH may affect the functional properties of the polysaccharide. The results obtained in the current study showed that camelina polysaccharide has significant potential for application in various food systems and can be introduced as a novel anionic thickening agent with unique properties.

Keywords: Camelina meal, polysaccharide, rheology, zeta potential

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181 Automated Prediction of HIV-associated Cervical Cancer Patients Using Data Mining Techniques for Survival Analysis

Authors: O. J. Akinsola, Yinan Zheng, Rose Anorlu, F. T. Ogunsola, Lifang Hou, Robert Leo-Murphy

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Cervical Cancer (CC) is the 2nd most common cancer among women living in low and middle-income countries, with no associated symptoms during formative periods. With the advancement and innovative medical research, there are numerous preventive measures being utilized, but the incidence of cervical cancer cannot be truncated with the application of only screening tests. The mortality associated with this invasive cervical cancer can be nipped in the bud through the important role of early-stage detection. This study research selected an array of different top features selection techniques which was aimed at developing a model that could validly diagnose the risk factors of cervical cancer. A retrospective clinic-based cohort study was conducted on 178 HIV-associated cervical cancer patients in Lagos University teaching Hospital, Nigeria (U54 data repository) in April 2022. The outcome measure was the automated prediction of the HIV-associated cervical cancer cases, while the predictor variables include: demographic information, reproductive history, birth control, sexual history, cervical cancer screening history for invasive cervical cancer. The proposed technique was assessed with R and Python programming software to produce the model by utilizing the classification algorithms for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer disease. Four machine learning classification algorithms used are: the machine learning model was split into training and testing dataset into ratio 80:20. The numerical features were also standardized while hyperparameter tuning was carried out on the machine learning to train and test the data. Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). Some fitting features were selected for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer diseases from selected characteristics in the dataset using the contribution of various selection methods for the classification cervical cancer into healthy or diseased status. The mean age of patients was 49.7±12.1 years, mean age at pregnancy was 23.3±5.5 years, mean age at first sexual experience was 19.4±3.2 years, while the mean BMI was 27.1±5.6 kg/m2. A larger percentage of the patients are Married (62.9%), while most of them have at least two sexual partners (72.5%). Age of patients (OR=1.065, p<0.001**), marital status (OR=0.375, p=0.011**), number of pregnancy live-births (OR=1.317, p=0.007**), and use of birth control pills (OR=0.291, p=0.015**) were found to be significantly associated with HIV-associated cervical cancer. On top ten 10 features (variables) considered in the analysis, RF claims the overall model performance, which include: accuracy of (72.0%), the precision of (84.6%), a recall of (84.6%) and F1-score of (74.0%) while LR has: an accuracy of (74.0%), precision of (70.0%), recall of (70.0%) and F1-score of (70.0%). The RF model identified 10 features predictive of developing cervical cancer. The age of patients was considered as the most important risk factor, followed by the number of pregnancy livebirths, marital status, and use of birth control pills, The study shows that data mining techniques could be used to identify women living with HIV at high risk of developing cervical cancer in Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries.

Keywords: associated cervical cancer, data mining, random forest, logistic regression

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180 The Effect of Teachers' Personal Values on the Perceptions of the Effective Principal and Student in School

Authors: Alexander Zibenberg, Rima’a Da’As

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According to the author’s knowledge, individuals are naturally inclined to classify people as leaders and followers. Individuals utilize cognitive structures or prototypes specifying the traits and abilities that characterize the effective leader (implicit leadership theories) and effective follower in an organization (implicit followership theories). Thus, the present study offers insights into understanding how teachers' personal values (self-enhancement and self-transcendence) explain the preference for styles of effective leader (i.e., principal) and assumptions about the traits and behaviors that characterize effective followers (i.e., student). Beyond the direct effect on perceptions of effective types of leader and follower, the present study argues that values may also interact with organizational and personal contexts in influencing perceptions. Thus authors suggest that teachers' managerial position may moderate the relationships between personal values and perception of the effective leader and follower. Specifically, two key questions are addressed in the present research: (1) Is there a relationship between personal values and perceptions of the effective leader and effective follower? and (2) Are these relationships stable or could they change across different contexts? Two hundred fifty-five Israeli teachers participated in this study, completing questionnaires – about the effective student and effective principal. Results of structural equations modeling (SEM) with maximum likelihood estimation showed: first: the model fit the data well. Second: researchers found a positive relationship between self-enhancement and anti-prototype of the effective principal and anti-prototype of the effective student. The relationship between self-transcendence value and both perceptions were found significant as well. Self-transcendence positively related to the way the teacher perceives the prototype of the effective principal and effective student. Besides, authors found that teachers' managerial position moderates these relationships. The article contributes to the literature both on perceptions and on personal values. Although several earlier studies explored issues of implicit leadership theories and implicit followership theories, personality characteristics (values) have garnered less attention in this matter. This study shows that personal values which are deeply rooted, abstract motivations that guide justify or explain attitudes, norms, opinions and actions explain differences in perception of the effective leader and follower. The results advance the theoretical understanding of the relationship between personal values and individuals’ perceptions in organizations. An additional contribution of this study is the application of the teacher's managerial position to explain a potential boundary condition of the translation of personal values into outcomes. The findings suggest that through the management process in the organization, teachers acquire knowledge and skills which augment their ability (beyond their personal values) to predict perceptions of ideal types of principal and student. The study elucidates the unique role of personal values in understanding an organizational thinking in organization. It seems that personal values might explain the differences in individual preferences of the organizational paradigm (mechanistic vs organic).

Keywords: implicit leadership theories, implicit followership theories, organizational paradigms, personal values

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179 Monitoring Future Climate Changes Pattern over Major Cities in Ghana Using Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project Phase 5, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest Modeling

Authors: Stephen Dankwa, Zheng Wenfeng, Xiaolu Li

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Climate change is recently gaining the attention of many countries across the world. Climate change, which is also known as global warming, referring to the increasing in average surface temperature has been a concern to the Environmental Protection Agency of Ghana. Recently, Ghana has become vulnerable to the effect of the climate change as a result of the dependence of the majority of the population on agriculture. The clearing down of trees to grow crops and burning of charcoal in the country has been a contributing factor to the rise in temperature nowadays in the country as a result of releasing of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases into the air. Recently, petroleum stations across the cities have been on fire due to this climate changes and which have position Ghana in a way not able to withstand this climate event. As a result, the significant of this research paper is to project how the rise in the average surface temperature will be like at the end of the mid-21st century when agriculture and deforestation are allowed to continue for some time in the country. This study uses the Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment RCP 8.5 model output data to monitor the future climate changes from 2041-2050, at the end of the mid-21st century over the ten (10) major cities (Accra, Bolgatanga, Cape Coast, Koforidua, Kumasi, Sekondi-Takoradi, Sunyani, Ho, Tamale, Wa) in Ghana. In the models, Support Vector Machine and Random forest, where the cities as a function of heat wave metrics (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, heat wave duration and number of heat waves) assisted to provide more than 50% accuracy to predict and monitor the pattern of the surface air temperature. The findings identified were that the near-surface air temperature will rise between 1°C-2°C (degrees Celsius) over the coastal cities (Accra, Cape Coast, Sekondi-Takoradi). The temperature over Kumasi, Ho and Sunyani by the end of 2050 will rise by 1°C. In Koforidua, it will rise between 1°C-2°C. The temperature will rise in Bolgatanga, Tamale and Wa by 0.5°C by 2050. This indicates how the coastal and the southern part of the country are becoming hotter compared with the north, even though the northern part is the hottest. During heat waves from 2041-2050, Bolgatanga, Tamale, and Wa will experience the highest mean daily air temperature between 34°C-36°C. Kumasi, Koforidua, and Sunyani will experience about 34°C. The coastal cities (Accra, Cape Coast, Sekondi-Takoradi) will experience below 32°C. Even though, the coastal cities will experience the lowest mean temperature, they will have the highest number of heat waves about 62. Majority of the heat waves will last between 2 to 10 days with the maximum 30 days. The surface temperature will continue to rise by the end of the mid-21st century (2041-2050) over the major cities in Ghana and so needs to be addressed to the Environmental Protection Agency in Ghana in order to mitigate this problem.

Keywords: climate changes, CMIP5, Ghana, heat waves, random forest, SVM

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178 Multilevel Regression Model - Evaluate Relationship Between Early Years’ Activities of Daily Living and Alzheimer’s Disease Onset Accounting for Influence of Key Sociodemographic Factors Using a Longitudinal Household Survey Data

Authors: Linyi Fan, C.J. Schumaker

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Background: Biomedical efforts to treat Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have typically produced mixed to poor results, while more lifestyle-focused treatments such as exercise may fare better than existing biomedical treatments. A few promising studies have indicated that activities of daily life (ADL) may be a useful way of predicting AD. However, the existing cross-sectional studies fail to show how functional-related issues such as ADL in early years predict AD and how social factors influence health either in addition to or in interaction with individual risk factors. This study would helpbetterscreening and early treatments for the elderly population and healthcare practice. The findings have significance academically and practically in terms of creating positive social change. Methodology: The purpose of this quantitative historical, correlational study was to examine the relationship between early years’ ADL and the development of AD in later years. The studyincluded 4,526participantsderived fromRAND HRS dataset. The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a longitudinal household survey data set that is available forresearchof retirement and health among the elderly in the United States. The sample was selected by the completion of survey questionnaire about AD and dementia. The variablethat indicates whether the participant has been diagnosed with AD was the dependent variable. The ADL indices and changes in ADL were the independent variables. A four-step multilevel regression model approach was utilized to address the research questions. Results: Amongst 4,526 patients who completed the AD and dementia questionnaire, 144 (3.1%) were diagnosed with AD. Of the 4,526 participants, 3,465 (76.6%) have high school and upper education degrees,4,074 (90.0%) were above poverty threshold. The model evaluatedthe effect of ADL and change in ADL on onset of AD in late years while allowing the intercept of the model to vary by level of education. The results suggested that the only significant predictor of the onset of AD was changes in early years’ ADL (b = 20.253, z = 2.761, p < .05). However, the result of the sensitivity analysis (b = 7.562, z = 1.900, p =.058), which included more control variables and increased the observation period of ADL, are not supported this finding. The model also estimated whether the variances of random effect vary by Level-2 variables. The results suggested that the variances associated with random slopes were approximately zero, suggesting that the relationship between early years’ ADL were not influenced bysociodemographic factors. Conclusion: The finding indicated that an increase in changes in ADL leads to an increase in the probability of onset AD in the future. However, this finding is not support in a broad observation period model. The study also failed to reject the hypothesis that the sociodemographic factors explained significant amounts of variance in random effect. Recommendations were then made for future research and practice based on these limitations and the significance of the findings.

Keywords: alzheimer’s disease, epidemiology, moderation, multilevel modeling

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177 Effect of Rolling Shear Modulus and Geometric Make up on the Out-Of-Plane Bending Performance of Cross-Laminated Timber Panel

Authors: Md Tanvir Rahman, Mahbube Subhani, Mahmud Ashraf, Paul Kremer

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Cross-laminated timber (CLT) is made from layers of timber boards orthogonally oriented in the thickness direction, and due to this, CLT can withstand bi-axial bending in contrast with most other engineered wood products such as laminated veneer lumber (LVL) and glued laminated timber (GLT). Wood is cylindrically anisotropic in nature and is characterized by significantly lower elastic modulus and shear modulus in the planes perpendicular to the fibre direction, and is therefore classified as orthotropic material and is thus characterized by 9 elastic constants which are three elastic modulus in longitudinal direction, tangential direction and radial direction, three shear modulus in longitudinal tangential plane, longitudinal radial plane and radial tangential plane and three Poisson’s ratio. For simplification, timber materials are generally assumed to be transversely isotropic, reducing the number of elastic properties characterizing it to 5, where the longitudinal plane and radial planes are assumed to be planes of symmetry. The validity of this assumption was investigated through numerical modelling of CLT with both orthotropic mechanical properties and transversely isotropic material properties for three softwood species, which are Norway spruce, Douglas fir, Radiata pine, and three hardwood species, namely Victorian ash, Beech wood, and Aspen subjected to uniformly distributed loading under simply supported boundary condition. It was concluded that assuming the timber to be transversely isotropic results in a negligible error in the order of 1 percent. It was also observed that along with longitudinal elastic modulus, ratio of longitudinal shear modulus (GL) and rolling shear modulus (GR) has a significant effect on a deflection for CLT panels of lower span to depth ratio. For softwoods such as Norway spruce and Radiata pine, the ratio of longitudinal shear modulus, GL to rolling shear modulus GR is reported to be in the order of 12 to 15 times in literature. This results in shear flexibility in transverse layers leading to increased deflection under out-of-plane loading. The rolling shear modulus of hardwoods has been found to be significantly higher than those of softwoods, where the ratio between longitudinal shear modulus to rolling shear modulus as low as 4. This has resulted in a significant rise in research into the manufacturing of CLT from entirely from hardwood, as well as from a combination of softwood and hardwoods. The commonly used beam theory to analyze the performance of CLT panels under out-of-plane loads are the Shear analogy method, Gamma method, and k-method. The shear analogy method has been found to be the most effective method where shear deformation is significant. The effect of the ratio of longitudinal shear modulus and rolling shear modulus of cross-layer on the deflection of CLT under uniformly distributed load with respect to its length to depth ratio was investigated using shear analogy method. It was observed that shear deflection is reduced significantly as the ratio of the shear modulus of the longitudinal layer and rolling shear modulus of cross-layer decreases. This indicates that there is significant room for improvement of the bending performance of CLT through developing hybrid CLT from a mix of softwood and hardwood.

Keywords: rolling shear modulus, shear deflection, ratio of shear modulus and rolling shear modulus, timber

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