Search results for: grid architecture framework

Authors: Karen B. Ghazaryan

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Recently, the propagation of coupled electromagnetic and elastic waves in magneto-electro-elastic (MEE) structures attracted much attention due to the wide range of application of these materials in smart structures. MEE materials are a class of new artificial composites that consist of simultaneous piezoelectric and piezomagnetic phases. Magneto-electro-elastic composites are built up by combining piezoelectric and piezomagnetic phases to obtain a smart composite that presents not only the electromechanical and magneto-mechanical coupling but also a strong magnetoelectric coupling, which makes such materials highly valuable in technological usage. In the framework of quasi-static approach shear surface and localized waves are considered in magneto-electro-elastic piezo-active structure consisting of functionally graded 6mm hexagonal symmetry group crystals. Assuming that in a functionally graded material the elastic and electromagnetic properties vary in the same proportion in direction perpendicular to the MEE polling direction, special classes of inhomogeneity functions were found, admitting exact solutions for coupled electromagnetic and elastic wave fields. Based on these exact solutions, defining the coupled shear wave field in magneto-electro-elastic composites several modal problems are considered: shear surface waves propagation along surface of a MEE half-space, interfacial wave propagation in a MEE oppositely polarized bi-layer, Love type waves in a functionally graded MEE layer overlying a homogeneous elastic half-space. For the problems under consideration corresponding dispersion equations are deduced analytically in an explicit form and for the BaTiO₃–CoFe₂O₄ crystal numerical results estimating effects of inhomogeneity and piezo effect are carried out.

Keywords: surface shear waves, magneto-electro-elastic composites, piezoactive crystals, functionally graded elastic materials

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Ricardo Pinto Mario Covele, Patricio V. Langa, Patrick Swanzy

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The English language has been recognized as a universal medium of instruction in academia, especially in Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) hence exerting enormous influence within the context of research and publication. By extension, the English Language has been embraced by scholars from non-English speaking countries. The purpose of this review was to synthesize the discussions using four databases. Discussion in the English language in the career development of academics, particularly in non-English speaking universities, is largely less visible. This paper seeks to fill this gap and to improve the visibility of the English language in the career development of academics focusing on non-English language speaking universities by undertaking a systematic literature review. More specifically, the paper addresses the language policy, English language learning model as a second language, sociolinguistic field and career development, methods, as well as its main findings. This review analyzed 75 relevant resources sourced from Western Cape’s Library, Scopus, Google scholar, and web of science databases from November 2020 to July 2021 using the PQRS framework as an analytical lens. The paper’s findings demonstrate that, while higher education continues to be under-challenges of English language usage, literature targeting non-English speaking universities remains less discussed than it is often described. The findings also demonstrate the dominance of English language policy, both for knowledge production and dissemination of literature challenging emerging scholars from non-English speaking HEIs. Hence, the paper argues for the need to reconsider the context of non-English language speakers in the English language in the career development of academics’ research, both as empirical fields and as emerging knowledge producers. More importantly, the study reveals two bodies of literature: (1) the instrumentalist approach to English Language learning and (2) Intercultural approach to the English Language for career opportunities, classified as the appropriate to explain the English language learning process and how is it perceived towards scholars’ academic careers in HEIs.

Keywords: English language, public and private universities, language policy, career development, non-English speaking countries

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Authors: Farhad Reyazat, Richard Werner

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This paper contributes to the existent literature by developing a framework that explains how to monitor potential threats to banking sector stability. The study explores structural vulnerabilities at the country level, but also look at bilateral exposures within a network context. The study contributes in analysing of the European banking systemic risk at aggregated level, which integrates the characteristics of bank size, and interconnectedness relative to the size of the economy which ultimate risk belong to, taking to account the concentration ratio of the banking industry within the whole economy. The nature of the systemic risk depends on the interplay of the network topology with the nature of financial transactions over the network, assets and buffer stemming from bank size, correlations, and the nature of the shocks to the financial system. The study’s results illustrate the contribution of banks’ size, size of economy and concentration of counterparty exposures to a given country’s banks in explaining its systemic importance, how much the banking network depends on a few traditional hubs activities and the changes of this dependencies over the last 9 years. The role of few of traditional hubs such as Swiss banks and British Banks and also Irish banks- where the financial sector is fairly new and grew strongly between 1990s till 2008- take the fourth position on 2014 reducing the relative size since 2006 where they had the first position. In-degree concentration index analysis in the study shows concentration index of banking network was not changed since financial crisis 2007-8. In-degree concentration index on first quarter of 2014 indicates that US, UK and Germany together, getting over 70% of the network exposures. The result of comparing the in-degree concentration index with 2007-4Q, shows the same group having over 70% of the network exposure, however the UK getting more important role in the hub and the market share of US and Germany are slightly diminished.

Keywords: systemic risk, counterparty risk, financial stability, interconnectedness, banking concentration, european banks risk, network effect on systemic risk, concentration risk

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Authors: Diana Flores Galindo, Richard Gil Herrera

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Nowadays, Lean Manufacturing and Industry 4.0 are very important in every country. One of the main benefits is continued market presence. It has been identified that there is a need to change existing educational programs, as well as update the knowledge and skills of existing employees. It should be borne in mind that behind each technological improvement, there is a human being. Human talent cannot be neglected. The main objectives of this article are to review the link between Lean Manufacturing, the incorporation of Industry 4.0 and the steps to follow to implement it; analyze the current situation and study the implications and benefits of this new trend, with a particular focus on Mexico. Lean Manufacturing and Industry 4.0 implementation waves must always take care of the most important capital – intellectual capital. The methodology used in this article comprised the following steps: reviewing the reality of the fourth industrial revolution, reviewing employees’ skills on the journey to become world-class, and analyzing the situation in Mexico. Lean Manufacturing and Industry 4.0 were studied not as exclusive concepts, but as complementary ones. The methodological framework used is focused on motivating companies’ collaborators to guarantee common results, innovate, and remain in the market in the face of new requirements from company stakeholders. The key findings were that both trends emphasize the need to improve communication across the entire company and incorporate new technologies into everyday work, from the shop floor to administrative staff, to help improve processes. Taking care of people, activities and processes will bring a company success. In the specific case of Mexico, companies in all sectors need to be aware of and implement technological improvements according to their specific needs. Low-cost labor represents one of the most typical barriers. In conclusion, companies must build a roadmap according to their strategy and needs to achieve their short, medium- and long-term goals.

Keywords: lean management, lean manufacturing, industry 4.0, motivation, SWOT analysis, Hoshin Kanri

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Authors: Adamu Abubakar, Abdulganiyu Yunusa, Likkason Othniel Kamfani, Abdulrahman Idris Augie

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This research study is being carried out in accordance with the Gwandu formation's potential exploratory activities in the inland basin of northwest Nigeria.The present research aims to identify and characterize subsurface anomalies within Gwandu formation using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and magnetic surveys, providing valuable insights for mineral exploration. The study utilizes various data enhancement techniques like derivatives, upward continuation, and spectral analysis alongside 2D modeling of electrical imaging profiles to analyze subsurface structures and anomalies. Data was collected through ERT and magnetic surveys, with subsequent processing including derivatives, spectral analysis, and 2D modeling. The results indicate significant subsurface structures such as faults, folds, and sedimentary layers. The study area's geoelectric and magnetic sections illustrate the depth and distribution of sedimentary formations, enhancing understanding of the geological framework. Thus, showed that the entire formations of Eocene sediment of Gwandu are overprinted by the study area's Tertiary strata. The NE to SW and E to W cross-profile for the pseudo geoelectric sections beneath the study area were generated using a two-dimensional (2D) electrical resistivity imaging. 2D magnetic modelling, upward continuation, and derivative analysis are used to delineate the signatures of subsurface magnetic anomalies. The results also revealed The sediment thickness by surface depth ranges from ∼4.06 km and ∼23.31 km. The Moho interface, the lower and upper mantle crusts boundary, and magnetic crust are all located at depths of around ∼10.23 km. The vertical distance between the local models of the foundation rocks to the north and south of the Sokoto Group was approximately ∼6 to ∼8 km and ∼4.5 km, respectively.

Keywords: high-resolution aeromagnetic data, electrical resistivity imaging, subsurface anomalies, 2d dorward modeling

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Authors: Jabulani Gilford Kheswa, Sinovuyo Takatshana

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Literature documented that the combination of permissive attitudes, sexual experimentation and lack of accurate information from parents to educate male adolescents, poses a threat to the sexual health of adolescent males and exposes them to risky sexual behaviours. Grounded in problem behaviour theory as a theoretical framework for this study in understanding health-related behaviours of adolescent males, the weaker one’s perceived self-efficacy, the more social and affective factors increase the likelihood of risky sexual behaviour, such as alcohol abuse and intimate partner violence. The purpose of this study was to determine the correlation between alcohol use and sexual behaviour among 176 purposively selected Xhosa- speaking adolescent males, from one school in the Nkonkobe Municipality, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. These learners were in grade ten, eleven and twelve with an age range from a low of 14 to a high of 25 years. The mean age was 18.06 years while the standard deviation was .144. To be ethically bound, the researchers sought permission from the school principal to distribute self-administered questionnaires and assured the participants of confidentiality and anonymity. A survey was conducted by means of self-administered questionnaires. A cross-sectional study was carried out within the quantitative paradigm using the SPSS version 18 and the Chronbach’s alpha of 0.79 were found for alcohol and sexual behaviour of adolescent males. Findings showed that 59.6% (N=105) of the learners indicated that their caregivers talk about safe sex practice as compared to only 40.4% (N=71) who indicated that their caregivers do not talk to them about safe sex practice. A statistically significant association between alcohol and negotiation of safe sex at p-value of 0.05 (chi-square of 34.529, degree of freedom of 16) was reported. In conclusion, as young people in South Africa become sexually active at an early age, schools should initiate psycho-educational programmes to equip adolescents against risk- behaviours (such as HIV/AIDS, substance abuse, crime).

Keywords: adolescent males, alcohol, parents, sex

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Authors: Nasser Koleini Mamaghani, Sara Mostowfi

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The complexity of public space design makes it difficult for designers to simultaneously consider all issues for thorough decision-making. Among public spaces, the public space around people’s house is the most prominent space that affects and impacts people’s daily life. Considering recreational public spaces in cities, their main purpose would be to design for experiences that enable a deep feeling of peace and a moment of being away from the hectic daily life. Respecting human emotions and restoring natural environments, although difficult and to some extent out of reach, are key issues for designing such spaces. In this paper we propose to analyse the structure of recreational public spaces and the related emotional impressions. Furthermore, we suggest investigating how these structures influence people’s choice for public spaces by using differential semantics. According to Kansei methodology, in order to evaluate a situation appropriately, the assessment variables must be adapted to the user’s mental scheme. This means that the first step would have to be the identification of a space’s conceptual scheme. In our case study, 32 Kansei words and 4 different locations, each with a different sensual experience, were selected. The 4 locations were all parks in the city of Tehran (Iran), each with a unique structure and artifacts such as a fountain, lighting, sculptures, and music. It should be noted that each of these parks has different combination and structure of environmental and artificial elements like: fountain, lightning, sculpture, music (sound) and so forth. The first one was park No.1, a park with natural environment, the selected space was a fountain with motion light and sculpture. The second park was park No.2, in which there are different styles of park construction: ways from different countries, the selected space was traditional Iranian architecture with a fountain and trees. The third one was park No.3, the park with modern environment and spaces, and included a fountain that moved according to music and lighting. The fourth park was park No.4, the park with combination of four elements: water, fire, earth, wind, the selected space was fountains squirting water from the ground up. 80 participant (55 males and 25 females) aged from 20-60 years participated in this experiment. Each person filled the questionnaire in the park he/she was in. Five-point semantic differential scale was considered to determine the relation between space details and adjectives (kansei words). Received data were analyzed by multivariate statistical technique (factor analysis using SPSS statics). Finally the results of this analysis are criteria as inspiration which can be used in future space designing for creating pleasant feeling in users.

Keywords: environmental design, differential semantics, Kansei engineering, subjective preferences, space

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Authors: Erika Takidah, Salina Kassim

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Digital transformation has accelerated in the new millennium. It is reshaping the financial services industry from a traditional system to financial technology. Moreover, the number of financial inclusion rates in Indonesia is less than 60%. An innovative model needed to elucidate this national problem. On the other hand, the Islamic financial service industry and financial technology grow fast as a new aspire in economic development. An Islamic bank, takaful, Islamic microfinance, Islamic financial technology and Islamic social finance institution could collaborate to intensify the financial inclusion number in Indonesia. The primary motive of this paper is to examine the strategy of collaboration-based Islamic financial services to enhance financial inclusion in Indonesia, particularly facing the digital era. The fundamental findings for the main problems are the foundations and key ecosystems aspect involved in the development of collaboration-based Islamic financial services. By using the Interpretive Structural Model (ISM) approach, the core problems faced in the development of the models have lacked policy instruments guarding the collaboration-based Islamic financial services with fintech work process and availability of human resources for fintech. The core strategies or foundations that are needed in the framework of collaboration-based Islamic financial services are the ability to manage and analyze data in the big data era. For the aspects of the Ecosystem or actors involved in the development of this model, the important actor is government or regulator, educational institutions, and also existing industries (Islamic financial services). The outcome of the study designates that strategy collaboration of Islamic financial services institution supported by robust technology, a legal and regulatory commitment of the regulators and policymakers of the Islamic financial institutions, extensive public awareness of financial inclusion in Indonesia. The study limited itself to realize financial inclusion, particularly in Islamic finance development in Indonesia. The study will have an inference for the concerned professional bodies, regulators, policymakers, stakeholders, and practitioners of Islamic financial service institutions.

Keywords: collaboration, financial inclusion, Islamic financial services, Islamic fintech

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Authors: Kate E Morris, Mark Sumner, Mark Taylor, Amanda Joynes, Yue Guo

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Garment durability, which encompasses physical and emotional factors, has been identified as a critical ingredient in producing clothing with increased lifespans, battling overconsumption, and subsequently tackling the catastrophic effects of climate change. Eco-design for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR) and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes have been suggested and will be implemented across Europe and the UK which might require brands to declare a garment’s durability credentials to be able to sell in that market. There is currently no consistent method of measuring the overall durability of a garment. Measuring the physical durability of garments is difficult and current assessment methods lack objectivity and reliability or don’t reflect the complex nature of durability for different garment categories. This study presents a novel and reproducible methodology for testing and ranking the absolute durability of 5 commercially available garment types, Formal Trousers, Casual Trousers, Denim Jeans, Casual Leggings and Underwear. A total of 112 garments from 21 UK brands were assessed. Due to variations in end use, different factors were considered across the different garment categories when evaluating durability. A physical testing protocol was created, tailored to each category, to dictate the necessary test results needed to measure the absolute durability of the garments. Multiple durability factors were used to modulate the ranking as opposed to previous studies which only reported on single factors to evaluate durability. The garments in this study were donated by the signatories of the Waste Resource Action Programme’s (WRAP) Textile 2030 initiative as part of their strategy to reduce the environmental impact of UK fashion. This methodology presents a consistent system for brands and policymakers to follow to measure and rank various garment type’s physical durability. Furthermore, with such a methodology, the durability of garments can be measured and new standards for improving durability can be created to enhance utilisation and improve the sustainability of the clothing on the market.

Keywords: circularity, durability, garment testing, ranking

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Authors: Riaz Ahmed Mangrio

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Reduplication in Urdu-Hindi affects all major word categories, particles, and even nonsensical words. It conveys a variety of meanings, including distribution, emphasis, iteration, adjectival and adverbial. This study will primarily discuss reduplicative structures of nonsensical words in Urdu-Hindi and then briefly look at some examples from other Indo-Aryan languages to introduce the debate regarding the same structures in them. The goal of this study is to present counter-evidence against Keane (2005: 241), who claims “the base in the cases of lexical and phrasal echo reduplication is always independently meaningful”. However, Urdu-Hindi reduplication derives meaningful compounds from nonsensical words e.g. gũ mgũ (A) ‘silent and confused’ and d̪əb d̪əb-a (N) ‘one’s fear over others’. This needs a comprehensive examination to see whether and how the various structures form patterns of a base-reduplicant relationship or, rather, they are merely sub lexical items joining together to form a word pattern of any grammatical category in content words. Another interesting theoretical question arises within the Optimality framework: in an OT analysis, is it necessary to identify one of the two constituents as the base and the other as reduplicant? Or is it best to consider this a pattern, but then how does this fit in with an OT analysis? This may be an even more interesting theoretical question. Looking for the solution to such questions can serve to make an important contribution. In the case at hand, each of the two constituents is an independent nonsensical word, but their echo reduplication is nonetheless meaningful. This casts significant doubt upon Keane’s (2005: 241) observation of some examples from Hindi and Tamil reduplication that “the base in cases of lexical and phrasal echo reduplication is always independently meaningful”. The debate on the point becomes further interesting when the triplication of nonsensical words in Urdu-Hindi e.g. aẽ baẽ ʃaẽ (N) ‘useless talk’ is also seen, which is equally important to discuss. The example is challenging to Harrison’s (1973) claim that only the monosyllabic verbs in their progressive forms reduplicate twice to result in triplication, which is not the case with the example presented. The study will consist of a thorough descriptive analysis of the data for the purpose of documentation, and then there will be OT analysis.

Keywords: reduplication, urdu-hindi, nonsensical, optimality theory

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Authors: Nia Mair Fry, Matthew Profit, Chenfeng Li

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This work focuses on the development and implementation of a fully implicit-implicit, coupled mechanical deformation and porous flow, finite element software tool. The fully implicit software accurately predicts classical fundamental analytical solutions such as the Terzaghi consolidation problem. Furthermore, it can capture other analytical solutions less well known in the literature, such as Gibson’s sedimentation rate problem and Coussy’s problems investigating wellbore stability for poroelastic rocks. The mechanical volume strains are transferred to the porous flow governing equation in an implicit framework. This will overcome some of the many current industrial issues, which use explicit solvers for the mechanical governing equations and only implicit solvers on the porous flow side. This can potentially lead to instability and non-convergence issues in the coupled system, plus giving results with an accountable degree of error. The specification of a fully monolithic implicit-implicit coupled porous media code sees the solution of both seepage-mechanical equations in one matrix system, under a unified time-stepping scheme, which makes the problem definition much easier. When using an explicit solver, additional input such as the damping coefficient and mass scaling factor is required, which are circumvented with a fully implicit solution. Further, improved accuracy is achieved as the solution is not dependent on predictor-corrector methods for the pore fluid pressure solution, but at the potential cost of reduced stability. In testing of this fully monolithic porous media code, there is the comparison of the fully implicit coupled scheme against an existing staggered explicit-implicit coupled scheme solution across a range of geotechnical problems. These cases include 1) Biot coefficient calculation, 2) consolidation theory with Terzaghi analytical solution, 3) sedimentation theory with Gibson analytical solution, and 4) Coussy well-bore poroelastic analytical solutions.

Keywords: coupled, implicit, monolithic, porous media

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Authors: Pibool Waijittragum

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The purpose of this research is to analyze the marketing strategies of Thai Halal products which related to the way of life for Thai Muslims. The expected benefit is the marketing strategy for brand building process for Halal products in Thailand. 4 elements of marketing strategies which necessary for the brand identity creation is the research framework: Consists of Attributes, Benefits, Values and Personality. The research methodology was applied using qualitative and quantitative; 19 marketing experts with dynamic roles in Thai consumer products were interviewed. In addition, a field survey of 122 Thai Muslims selected from 175 Muslim communities in Bangkok was studied. Data analysis will be according to 5 categories of Thai Halal product: 1) Meat 2) Vegetable and Fruits 3) Instant foods and Garnishing ingredient 4) Beverages, desserts and snacks 5) Hygienic daily products; such as soap, shampoo and body lotion. The results will explain some suitable representation in the marketing strategies of Thai Halal products as are: 1) Benefit; the characteristics of the product with its benefit. Consumers will purchase this product with the reason of; it is beneficial nutrients product, there are no toxic or chemical residues. Fresh and clean materials 2) Attribute; the exterior images that attract to consumer. Consumers will purchase this product with the reason of; there is a standard proof mark, food and drug secure proof mark and Halal products mark. Packaging and its materials should be draw attention. Use an attractive graphic. Use outstanding images of product, material or ingredients. 3) Value; the value of products that affect to consumers perception; it is healthy products. Accumulate quality of life. It is a product of expertise, manufacturing of research result. Consumers are important. It’s sincere, honest and reliable to all. 4) Personality; reflection of consumers thought. The personality feedback to them after they were consumes this product; they are health care persons. They are the rational person, moral person, justice person and thoughtful person like a progressive thinking.

Keywords: marketing strategies, product identity, branding, Thai Halal products

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Authors: S. Cafiso, B. Capace, A. Di Graziano, C. D’Agostino

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Systematic monitoring of the trackbed is necessary to assure safety and quality of service in the railway system. Moreover, to produce effective management of the maintenance treatments, the assessment of bearing capacity of the railway trackbed must include ballast, sub-ballast and subgrade layers at different depths. Consequently, there is an increasing interest in obtaining a consistent measure of ballast bearing capacity with no destructive tests (NDTs) able to work in the physical and time restrictions of railway tracks in operation. Moreover, in the case of the local railway with reduced gauge, the use of the traditional high-speed track monitoring systems is not feasible. In that framework, this paper presents results from in site investigation carried out on ballast and sleepers with Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) and Light Falling Weight Deflectometer (LWD). These equipment are currently used in road pavement maintenance where they have shown their reliability and effectiveness. Application of such Non-Destructive Tests in railway maintenance is promising but in the early stage of the investigation. More specifically, LWD was used to estimate the stiffness of ballast and sleeper support, as well. LWD, despite the limited load (6 kN in the trial test) applied directly on the sleeper, was able to detect defects in the bearing capacity at the Sleeper/Ballast interface. A dual frequency GPR was applied to detect the presence of layers’ discontinuities at different depths due to fouling phenomena that are the main causes of changing in the layer dielectric proprieties within the ballast thickness. The frequency of 2000Mhz provided high-resolution data to approximately 0.4m depth, while frequency of 600Mhz showed greater depth penetration up to 1.5 m. In the paper literature review and trial in site experience are used to identify Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT analysis) of the application of GPR and LWD for the assessment of bearing capacity of railway track-bed.

Keywords: bearing capacity, GPR, LWD, no destructive test, railway track

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Authors: Gebreslassie Gebru, Gurja Belay, Minister Birhanie, Mulalem Zenebe, Tadelle Dessie, Adriana Vallejo-Trujillo, Olivier Hanotte

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Livestock must adapt to changing environmental conditions, which can result in either phenotypic plasticity or irreversible phenotypic change. In this study, we combine Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) and Phenotypic Distribution Modelling (PDM) to provide a comprehensive framework for understanding the ecological and phenotypic characteristics of indigenous chicken (Gallus gallus domesticus) ecotypes. This approach helped us to classify these ecotypes, differentiate their phenotypic traits, and identify associations between environmental variables and adaptive traits. We measured 297 adult indigenous chickens from various agro-ecologies, including 208 females and 89 males. A subset of the 22 measured traits was selected using stepwise selection, resulting in seven traits for each sex. Using ENM, we identified four agro-ecologies potentially harbouring distinct phenotypes of indigenous Tigray chickens. However, PDM classified these chickens into three phenotypical ecotypes. Chickens grouped in ecotype-1 and ecotype-3 exhibited superior adaptive traits compared to those in ecotype-2, with significant variance observed. This high variance suggests a broader range of trait expression within these ecotypes, indicating greater adaptation capacity and potentially more diverse genetic characteristics. Several environmental variables, such as soil clay content, forest cover, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter, were strongly associated with most phenotypic traits. This suggests that these environmental factors play a role in shaping the observed phenotypic variations. By integrating ENM and PDM, this study enhances our understanding of indigenous chickens' ecological and phenotypic diversity. It also provides valuable insights into their conservation and management in response to environmental changes.

Keywords: adaptive traits, agro-ecology, appendage, climate, environment, imagej, morphology, phenotypic variation

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Authors: Jayant Athavale, Rendy Ekarantio, Sean Clarke

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The Maharshi University of Spirituality was founded on the base of 30 years of spiritual research. It specializes in conducting research on how the subtle-world and spiritual-vibrations affect the lives of people. One such area of research is how to create spiritually positive vibrations in the premises. By using aura and energy scanners along with the sixth sense, the spiritual research team has identified 3 aspects that are instrumental in enhancing or reducing the spiritual positivity of any premises. Firstly, the characteristics of the land should be considered holistically, that is, from a physical, psychological and spiritual point of view. While procedures for the physical assessment of land are well documented, due to ignorance and disbelief, the spiritual aspects are not considered. For example, if the land was previously a graveyard site, it can have highly detrimental effects on the residents within the premises at the spiritual level. This can further manifest as physical and psychological problems that are faced by the residents. Secondly, the manner of construction and the purpose/use of the building affects the subtle-vibrations in the premises. The manner of construction includes gross aspects such as the materials used, kind of architecture, etc. It also includes the subtle aspects provided in detail in the ancient science of Vastu Shastra and Feng Shui. For example, having the front door of the premises facing the south direction can negatively affect the premises because the southern direction is prone to distressing vibrations. The purpose and use of the premises also plays an important role in determining the type of subtle-vibrations that will be predominantly found within its area. Thirdly, the actions, thoughts, value systems and attitudes of the residents play an important part in determining whether the subtle-vibrations will be positive or negative. Residents with many personality defects emit negative vibrations. If some of the residents are affected with negative energies and are not doing any spiritual practice to overcome it, then it can have a harmful spiritual effect on the rest of the residents and the premises. If these three aspects are appropriately considered and attended to, then the premises will generate higher levels of spiritually positive vibrations. Both living and non-living objects within the premises imbibe this positivity and therefore, it holistically enhances the overall well-being of its residents. The positivity experienced in the premises of the Spiritual Research Centre of the Maharshi University of Spirituality, is a testimony to the success of this research. Due to regular and intense spiritual practice carried out by 10 Saints and over 500 seekers residing in its premises, the positivity in the environment can be felt by people when they enter its premises and even from a distance, and can easily be picked up by aura and energy scanners. Extraordinary and fascinating phenomena are observed and experienced in its premises as both living and non-living objects emit spiritually positive vibrations. This also protects the residents from negative vibrations. Examples of such phenomena and their positive impact are discussed in the paper.

Keywords: negative energies, positive vibrations on the premises, resident’s spiritual practice, science of the premises

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Authors: Tugce Caliskan

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The gentrification literature in Turkey provided important insights regarding the analysis of the socio-spatial change in İstanbul mostly through the existing gentrification theories which were produced in Anglo-American literature. Yet early researches focused on the classical gentrification while failing to notice other place-specific forms of the phenomena. It was only after the mid-2000s that scholarly attention shifted to the recent discussions in the mainstream such as the neoliberal urban policies, government involvement, and resistance. Although these studies have considerable potential to contribute to the geography of gentrification, it seems that copying the linear timeline of Anglo-American conceptualization limited the space to introduce contextually nuanced way of process in Turkey. More specifically, the gentrification literature in Turkey acknowledged the linear timeline of the process drawing on the mainstream studies, and, made the spontaneous classical gentrification as the starting point in İstanbul at the expense of contextually specific forms of the phenomenon that took place in the same years. This paper is an attempt to understand place-specific forms of gentrification through the abandonment of the linear understanding of time. In this vein, this paper approaches the process as moving both linear and cyclical rather than the waves succeeded each other. Maintaining a dialectical relationship between the cyclical and the linear time, this paper investigates how the components of gentrification have been taken place in the cyclical timeline while becoming bolder in the linear timeline. This paper argues that taking the (re)investment in the secondary circuit of capital and class transformation as the core characteristics of gentrification, and accordingly, searching for these components beyond the linear timeline provide strategic value to decenter the perspectives, not merely for Turkish studies. In this vein, this strategy revealed that Western experience of gentrification did not travel, adopted or copied in Turkey but gentrification -as an abstract and general concept- has emerged as a product of different contextual, historical and temporal forces which must be considered within the framework of state-led urbanization as early as 1980 differing from the Global North trajectories.

Keywords: comparative urbanism, geography of gentrification, linear and cyclical timeline, state-led gentrification

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Authors: Atikah Nurhayati, Asep A. Handaka

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Indonesia is a world’s major fish producer which can feed not only its citizens but also the people of the world. Currently, the total annual production is 11 tons and expected to double by the year of 2050. Given the potential, fishery has been an important part of the national food security system in Indonesia. Despite such a potential, a big challenge is facing the Indonesians in making fish the reliable source for their food, more specifically source of protein intake. The long geographic distance between the fish production centers and the consumer concentrations has prevented effective supply chain from producers to consumers and therefore demands a good logistic system. This paper is based on our research, which aimed at analyzing the fish supply chain and is to suggest relevant improvement to the chain. The research was conducted in the Year of 2016 in selected locations of Java Island, where intensive transaction on fishery commodities occur. Data used in this research comprises secondary data of time series reports on production and distribution and primary data regarding distribution aspects which were collected through interviews with purposively selected 100 respondents representing fishers, traders and processors. The data were analyzed following the supply chain management framework and processed following logistic regression and validity tests. The main findings of the research are as follows. Firstly, it was found that improperly managed connectivity and logistic chain is the main cause for insecurity of availability and affordability for the consumers. Secondly, lack of quality of most local processed products is a major obstacle for improving affordability and connectivity. The paper concluded with a number of recommended strategies to tackle the problem. These include rationalization of the length of the existing supply chain, intensification of processing activities, and improvement of distribution infrastructure and facilities.

Keywords: fishery, food security, logistic, supply chain

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Authors: A. Kavita Murugkar, B. Anurag Kashyap

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With the Rights for Persons with Disabilities Act (RPWD Act) 2016, the Indian government has made it mandatory for all establishments, including Heritage Sites, to be accessible for People with Disabilities. However, recent access audit surveys done under the Accessible India Campaign by Ministry of Culture indicate that there are very few accessibility measures provided in the Heritage sites for people with disabilities. Though there are some measures for the mobility impaired, surveys brought out that there are almost no provisions for people with vision impairment (PwVI) in heritage sites thus depriving them of a reasonable physical & intellectual access that facilitates an enjoyable experience and enriching interpretation of the Heritage Site. There is a growing need to develop multisensory interpretative tools that can help the PwVI in perceiving heritage sites in the absence of vision. The purpose of this research was to examine the usability of an audio-tactile model as a haptic and sound-based strategy for augmenting the perception and experience of PwVI in a heritage site. The first phase of the project was a multi-stage phenomenological experimental study with visually impaired users to investigate the design parameters for developing an audio-tactile model for PwVI. The findings from this phase included user preferences related to the physical design of the model such as the size, scale, materials, details, etc., and the information that it will carry such as braille, audio output, tactile text, etc. This was followed by the second phase in which a working prototype of an audio-tactile model is designed and developed for a heritage site based on the findings from the first phase of the study. A nationally listed heritage site from the author’s city was selected for making the model. The model was lastly tested by visually impaired users for final refinements and validation. The prototype developed empowers People with Vision Impairment to navigate independently in heritage sites. Such a model if installed in every heritage site, can serve as a technological guide for the Person with Vision Impairment, giving information of the architecture, details, planning & scale of the buildings, the entrances, location of important features, lifts, staircases, and available, accessible facilities. The model was constructed using 3D modeling and digital printing technology. Though designed for the Indian context, this assistive technology for the blind can be explored for wider applications across the globe. Such an accessible solution can change the otherwise “incomplete’’ perception of the disabled visitor, in this case, a visually impaired visitor and augment the quality of their experience in heritage sites.

Keywords: accessibility, architectural perception, audio tactile model , inclusive heritage, multi-sensory perception, visual impairment, visitor experience

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Authors: Jennifer Isabelle Rios Rendón, Ursula Sanchez, Dana Lee Baker

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Disability Policy in México has witnessed numerous changed throughout the years. Physical disabilities are more often recognized in Mexican culture. However, with an emerging focus on neurological disabilities or differences in individuals’ new policies are needed to serve better and understand the needs of these populations. The need to understand and communicate with local leaders is imperative, as the lens used to analyze autism has historically been from a Western school of thought. We are looking to comprehend the disability policy subsystem in México - specifically how autism is perceived, the language used to describe it, and how it ties to the cultural stigma of disabilities that exist in México. Therefore, to understand this, we seek to interview multiple policy leaders on their experience in autism and disability policy. The goal is to conduct qualitative research through interviews with local autism and disability leaders in México. This methodology aims to answer the questions of what language commonly and culturally is utilized in disability policy, the context of how autism is perceived in México, and in general, the lived experience of the disability policy leaders that take part in this effort in México. Local activists and policy leaders were initially found through an online search then collected using snowball sampling. The interviews were conducted through a series of pre-formulated questions that the policy leader answered via email or a phone conversation with the researchers. Acknowledging the importance of language and accessibility, the need for the content to be in both English and Spanish as well as auditory and visual is essential to take steps in the inclusion of a Neurodiverse group of leaders. This work is a demonstration of the framework of the investigation which hopes to create a more complete understanding of the policy and political culture around autism in México. Results of the project include new insight into the developing relationship between the President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, disability activists, and neurodiverse communities. The project contributes to denormalizing the legacy of white supremacy in autism related, historically rooted in the assumption that autism occurs predominantly in white communities.

Keywords: autism, disability leaders, disability policy, México, Neurodiversity

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Authors: Skyler Kim

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An early diagnosis of leukemia has always been a challenge to doctors and hematologists. On a worldwide basis, it was reported that there were approximately 350,000 new cases in 2012, and diagnosing leukemia was time-consuming and inefficient because of an endemic shortage of flow cytometry equipment in current clinical practice. As the number of medical diagnosis tools increased and a large volume of high-quality data was produced, there was an urgent need for more advanced data analysis methods. One of these methods was the AI approach. This approach has become a major trend in recent years, and several research groups have been working on developing these diagnostic models. However, designing and implementing a leukemia diagnostic system in real clinical environments based on a deep learning approach with larger sets remains complex. Leukemia is a major hematological malignancy that results in mortality and morbidity throughout different ages. We decided to select acute lymphocytic leukemia to develop our diagnostic system since acute lymphocytic leukemia is the most common type of leukemia, accounting for 74% of all children diagnosed with leukemia. The results from this development work can be applied to all other types of leukemia. To develop our model, the Kaggle dataset was used, which consists of 15135 total images, 8491 of these are images of abnormal cells, and 5398 images are normal. In this paper, we design and implement a leukemia diagnostic system in a real clinical environment based on deep learning approaches with larger sets. The proposed diagnostic system has the function of detecting and classifying leukemia. Different from other AI approaches, we explore hybrid architectures to improve the current performance. First, we developed two independent convolutional neural network models: VGG19 and ResNet50. Then, using both VGG19 and ResNet50, we developed a hybrid deep learning architecture employing transfer learning techniques to extract features from each input image. In our approach, fusing the features from specific abstraction layers can be deemed as auxiliary features and lead to further improvement of the classification accuracy. In this approach, features extracted from the lower levels are combined into higher dimension feature maps to help improve the discriminative capability of intermediate features and also overcome the problem of network gradient vanishing or exploding. By comparing VGG19 and ResNet50 and the proposed hybrid model, we concluded that the hybrid model had a significant advantage in accuracy. The detailed results of each model’s performance and their pros and cons will be presented in the conference.

Keywords: acute lymphoblastic leukemia, hybrid model, leukemia diagnostic system, machine learning

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Authors: Carolyn Scott, Rachel Nugent

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The agricultural industry in Ireland and worldwide is one of the most dangerous occupations with respect to occupational health and safety accidents and fatalities. Many accident causation models have been developed in safety research to understand the underlying and contributory factors that lead to the occurrence of an accident. Due to the uniqueness of the agricultural sector, current accident causation theories cannot be applied. This paper presents an accident causation model named the Irish Farm Accident Causation Model (IFACM) which has been specifically tailored to the needs of Irish farms. The IFACM is a theoretical and practical model of accident causation that arranges the causal factors into a graphic representation of originating, shaping, and contributory factors that lead to accidents when unsafe acts and conditions are created that are not rectified by control measures. Causes of farm accidents were assimilated by means of a thorough literature review and were collated to form a graphical representation of the underlying causes of a farm accident. The IFACM was validated retrospectively through case study analysis and peer review. Participants in the case study (n=10) identified causes that led to a farm accident in which they were involved. A root cause analysis was conducted to understand the contributory factors surrounding the farm accident, traced back to the ‘root cause’. Experts relevant to farm safety accident causation in the agricultural industry have peer reviewed the IFACM. The accident causation process is complex. Accident prevention requires a comprehensive understanding of this complex process because to prevent the occurrence of accidents, the causes of accidents must be known. There is little research on the key causes and contributory factors of unsafe behaviours and accidents on Irish farms. The focus of this research is to gain a deep understanding of the causality of accidents on Irish farms. The results suggest that the IFACM framework is helpful for the analysis of the causes of accidents within the agricultural industry in Ireland. The research also suggests that there may be international applicability if further research is carried out. Furthermore, significant learning can be obtained from considering the underlying causes of accidents.

Keywords: farm safety, farm accidents, accident causation, root cause analysis

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Authors: Desiree Vandenberghe, Johan Albrecht

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Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for the vast majority of deaths in the European Union (EU) and represent a large share of total health care spending. A future increase in this health and financial burden is likely to be driven by population ageing, lifestyle changes and technological advances in medicine. Without adequate prevention measures, this burden can severely threaten population health and economic development. To tackle this challenge, a correct assessment of the current burden of NCDs is required, as well as a projection of potential increases of this burden. The contribution of this paper is to offer perspective on the evolution of the NCD burden towards the future and to give an indication of the potential of prevention policy. A Non-Homogenous, Semi-Markov model for the EU was constructed, which allowed for a projection of the cost burden for the four main NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes mellitus) towards 2030 and 2050. This simulation is done based on multiple baseline scenarios that vary in demand and supply factors such as health status, population structure, and technological advances. Finally, in order to assess the potential of preventive measures to curb the cost explosion of NCDs, a simulation is executed which includes increased efforts for preventive health care measures. According to the Markov model, by 2030 and 2050, total costs (direct and indirect costs) in the EU could increase by 30.1% and 44.1% respectively, compared to 2015 levels. An ambitious prevention policy framework for NCDs will be required if the EU wants to meet this challenge of rising costs. To conclude, significant cost increases due to Non-Communicable Diseases are likely to occur due to demographic and lifestyle changes. Nevertheless, an ambitious prevention program throughout the EU can aid in making this cost burden manageable for future generations.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, preventive health care, health policy, Markov model, scenario analysis

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Authors: Lejla Sunagic

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The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.

Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration

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Authors: Misganaw Chere Siferih

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This study assessed the impact of crossbreed dairy cows on household income and food security. The study area is found in Dejen Woreda, East Gojam Zone, and Amhara region of Ethiopia. Random sampling technique was used to obtain a sample of 80 crossbreed dairy cow owners and 176 indigenous dairy cow owners. The study employed food consumption score analytical framework to measure food security status of the household. No Statistical significant mean difference is found between crossbreed owners and indigenous owners. Logistic regression was employed to investigate crossbreed dairy cow adoption determinants , the result indicates that gender, education, labor number, land size cultivated, dairy cooperatives membership, net income and food security status of the household are statistically significant independent variables, which explained the binary dependent variable, crossbreed dairy cow adoption. Propensity score matching (PSM) was employed to analyze the impact of crossbreed dairy cow owners on farmers’ income and food security. The average net income of crossbreed dairy cow owners was found to be significantly higher than indigenous dairy cow owners. Estimates of average treatment effect of the treated (ATT) indicated that crossbreed dairy cow is able to impact households’ net income by 42%, 38.5%, 30.8% and 44.5% higher in kernel, radius, nearest neighborhood and stratification matching algorithms respectively as compared to indigenous dairy cow owners. However, estimates of average treatment of the treated (ATT) suggest that being an owner of crossbreed dairy cow is not able to affect food security significantly. Thus, crossbreed dairy cow enables farmers to increase income but not their food security in the study area. Finally, the study recommended establishing dairy cooperatives and advice farmers to become a member of them, attention to promoting the impact of crossbreed dairy cows and promotion of nutrition focus projects.

Keywords: crossbreed dairy cow, net income, food security, propensity score matching

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Authors: Eveline Muika Kabongo, Peter Delobelle, Ferdinand Mukumbang, Edward Nicol

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Introduction: Studies have been conducted to establish the effect of the MomConnect program in South Africa, but these studies did not focus on the stakeholders' and implementers' perspectives and the underlying program theory of the MomConnect initiative program. We strived to obtain stakeholders’ perspectives and assumptions on the MomConnect program and develop an initial program theory (IPT) of how the MomConnect initiative was expected to work. Methods: A realist-informed explanatory design used. The interviewer was performed with 10 key informants selected purposively among MomConnect key informants at the a national level of NDoH South Africa. The interview was done via zoom and lasted for 30 to 60 minutes. Introduction and abduction inferencing approaches were applied. The deductive and inductive approaches were performed during the analysis. ICAMO hereustic framework was used to analysed the data in order to get key informants expectations on how the MomConnect will work or not. Results: We developed three folk’s theories illustrating how the key informants’ expected the MomConnect to work. These theories showed that the MomConnect intended to provide users with health information and education that will empower and motivate them with knowledge which will allow the improvement of health services delivery among HCPs and improvement of the uptake of MCH services among pregnant women and mothers and decrease the rate of maternal and child mortality in the country. The lack of an updated mechanism to link women to the outcome was an issue. Another problem enlightened was the introduction of the WhatsApp program instead of SMS messaging, which was free of charge to women. Conclusion: The Folk’s theory developed from this study provided an insight into how the MomConnect was expected to work and what did not work. The folk’s theory will be merged with information from candidate theories on synthesis review and document review to develop our initial program theory of the MomConnect initiative.

Keywords: mHealth, MomConnect program, realist evaluation, maternal and child health, maternal and child health services, introduction, theory-driven

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Authors: Matthew Lee Turnbough

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In 2007 Spain began to experience the effects of a deep economic crisis, which would generate a situation characterised by instability and uncertainty. This has been an obstacle, especially acute for the youth of this country seeking to enter the workforce. As a result of the impact of COVID-19, the youth in Spain are now suffering the effects of a new crisis that has deepened an already fragile labour environment. In this paper, we analyse the discourses that have emerged from a precarious labour market, specifically from two companies dedicated to operating job portals and job listings in Spain, Job Today, and CornerJob. These two start-up businesses have developed mobile applications geared towards young adults in search of employment in the service sector, two of the companies with the highest user rates in Spain. Utilizing a discourse analysis approach, we explore the impact of individualization and how the process of psychologization may contribute to an increasing reliance on individual solutions to social problems. As such, we seek to highlight the expectations and demands that are placed upon young workers and the type of subjectivity that this dynamic could foster, all this within an unstable framework seemingly marked by chance, a context which is key for the emergence of individualization. Furthermore, we consider the extent to which young adults incorporate these discourses and the strategies they employ basing our analysis on the VULSOCU (New Forms of Socio-Existential Vulnerability, Supports, and Care in Spain) research project, specifically the results of nineteen in-depth interviews and three discussion groups with young adults in this country. Consequently, we seek to elucidate the argumentative threads rooted in the process of individualization and underline the implications of this dynamic for the young worker and his/her labour insertion while also identifying manifestations of the goddess of fortune as a representation of chance in this context. Finally, we approach this panorama of social change in Spain from the perspective of the individuals or young adults who find themselves immersed in this transition from one crisis to another.

Keywords: chance, crisis, discourses, individualization, work, youth

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Authors: Omneya N. Mekhaimer, Elkhayam M. Dorra, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Over the recent decades, studies on organizational culture have gained global attention in the business management literature, where it has been established that the cultural factors embedded in the organization have an implicit yet significant influence on the organization’s success. Unlike other industries, the construction industry is widely known to be operating in a dynamic and adversarial nature; considering the unique characteristics it denotes, thereby the level of disputes has propagated in the construction industry throughout the years. In the late 1990s, the International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction (CIB) created a Task Group (TG-23), which later evolved in 2006 into a Working Commission W112, with a strategic objective to promote research in investigating the role and impact of culture in the construction industry worldwide. To that end, this paper aims to study the influence of organizational culture in the contractor’s organization on the frequency of disputes caused between the owner and the contractor that occur in commercial projects based in Egypt. This objective is achieved by using a quantitative approach through a survey questionnaire to explore the dominant cultural attributes that exist in the contractor’s organization based on the Competing Value Framework (CVF) theory, which classifies organizational culture into four main cultural types: (1) clan, (2) adhocracy, (3) market, and (4) hierarchy. Accordingly, the collected data are statistically analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 28) software, whereby a correlation analysis using Pearson Correlation is carried out to assess the relationship between these variables and their statistical significance using the p-value. The results show that there is an influence of organizational culture attributes on the frequency of disputes whereby market culture is identified to be the most dominant organizational culture that is currently practiced in contractor’s organization, which consequently contributes to increasing the frequency of disputes in commercial projects. These findings suggest that alternative management practices should be adopted rather than the existing ones with an aim to minimize dispute occurrence.

Keywords: construction projects, correlation analysis, disputes, Egypt, organizational culture

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Authors: Yiyuan Tao

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Under the impact of global warming together with the intensification of human activities, the hydrological regimes may be altered, and the traditional stationary assumption was no longer satisfied. However, most of the current design standards of water infrastructures were still based on the hypothesis of stationarity, which may inevitably result in severe biases. Many critical impacts of climate on ecosystems, society, and the economy are controlled by extreme events rather than mean values. Therefore, it is of great significance to identify the non-stationarity of precipitation extremes and model the precipitation extremes in a nonstationary framework. The Wei River Basin (WRB), located in a continental monsoon climate zone in China, is selected as a case study in this study. Six extreme precipitation indices were employed to investigate the changing patterns and stationarity of precipitation extremes in the WRB. To identify if precipitation extremes are stationary, the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettitt test, which is used to examine the occurrence of abrupt changes are adopted in this study. Extreme precipitation indices series are fitted with non-stationary distributions that selected from six widely used distribution functions: Gumbel, lognormal, Weibull, gamma, generalized gamma and exponential distributions by means of the time-varying moments model generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS), where the distribution parameters are defined as a function of time. The results indicate that: (1) the trends were not significant for the whole WRB, but significant positive/negative trends were still observed in some stations, abrupt changes for consecutive wet days (CWD) mainly occurred in 1985, and the assumption of stationarity is invalid for some stations; (2) for these nonstationary extreme precipitation indices series with significant positive/negative trends, the GAMLSS models are able to capture well the temporal variations of the indices, and perform better than the stationary model. Finally, the differences between the quantiles of nonstationary and stationary models are analyzed, which highlight the importance of nonstationary modeling of precipitation extremes in the WRB.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, GAMLSSS, non-stationary, Wei River Basin

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Authors: Sevgi Özlem Bulu, Arif Furkan Mendi, Tolga Erol, İzzet Gökhan Özbilgin

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The rapid progress of technology in today's competitive conditions has also accelerated companies' technology development activities. As a result, companies are paying more attention to R&D studies and are beginning to allocate a larger share to R&D projects. A more systematic, comprehensive, target-oriented implementation of R&D studies is crucial for the company to achieve successful results. As a consequence, Technology Roadmap (TRM) is gaining importance as a management tool. It has critical prospects for achieving medium and long term success as it contains decisions about past business, future plans, technological infrastructure. When studies on TRM are examined, projects to be placed on the roadmap are selected by many different methods. Generally preferred methods are based on multi-criteria decision making methods. Management of selected projects becomes an important point after the selection phase of the projects. At this stage, TRM are used. TRM can be created in many different ways so that each institution can prepare its own Technology Roadmap according to their strategic plan. Depending on the intended use, there can be TRM with different layers at different sizes. In the evaluation phase of the R&D projects and in the creation of the TRM, HAVELSAN, Turkey's largest defense company in the software field, carries out this process with great care and diligence. At the beginning, suggested R&D projects are evaluated by the Technology Management Board (TMB) of HAVELSAN in accordance with the company's resources, objectives, and targets. These projects are presented to the TMB periodically for evaluation within the framework of certain criteria by board members. After the necessary steps have been passed, the approved projects are added to the time-based TRM, which is composed of four layers as market, product, project and technology. The use of a four-layered roadmap provides a clearer understanding and visualization of company strategy and objectives. This study demonstrates the benefits of using TRM, four-layered Technology Roadmapping and the possibilities for the institutions in the defense industry.

Keywords: technology roadmap, research and development project, project selection, research development in defense industry

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