Search results for: real gas model

Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: stock market prediction, social moods, regression model, DJIA

Procedia PDF Downloads 532

Authors: Nessreen Y. Ibrahim

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Designing the future according to realistic analytical study for the futuristic market needs can be a milestone strategy to make a huge improvement in developing countries economics. In developing countries, access to high technology and latest science approaches is very limited. The financial problems in low and medium income countries have negative effects on the kind and quality of imported new technologies and application for their markets. Thus, there is a strong need for shifting paradigm thinking in the design process to improve and evolve their development strategy. This paper discusses future possibilities in developing countries, and how they can design their own future according to specific future models FDM (Future Design Models), which established to solve certain economical problems, as well as political and cultural conflicts. FDM is strategic thinking framework provides an improvement in both content and process. The content includes; beliefs, values, mission, purpose, conceptual frameworks, research, and practice, while the process includes; design methodology, design systems, and design managements tools. In this paper the main objective was building an innovative economic model to design a chosen possible futuristic scenario; by understanding the market future needs, analyze real world setting, solve the model questions by future driven design, and finally interpret the results, to discuss to what extent the results can be transferred to the real world. The paper discusses Egypt as a potential case study. Since, Egypt has highly complex economical problems, extra-dynamic political factors, and very rich cultural aspects; we considered Egypt is a very challenging example for applying FDM. The paper results recommended using FDM numerical modeling as a starting point to design the future.

Keywords: developing countries, economic models, future design, possible futures

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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SEM analysis is a complex multivariate analysis because it involves a number of exogenous and endogenous variables that are interconnected to form a model. The measurement model is divided into two, namely, the reflective model (reflecting) and the formative model (forming). Before carrying out further tests on SEM, there are assumptions that must be met, namely the linearity assumption, to determine the form of the relationship. There are three modeling approaches to path analysis, including parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches. The aim of this research is to develop semiparametric SEM and obtain the best model. The data used in the research is secondary data as the basis for the process of obtaining simulation data. Simulation data was generated with various sample sizes of 100, 300, and 500. In the semiparametric SEM analysis, the form of the relationship studied was determined, namely linear and quadratic and determined one and two knot points with various levels of error variance (EV=0.5; 1; 5). There are three levels of closeness of relationship for the analysis process in the measurement model consisting of low (0.1-0.3), medium (0.4-0.6) and high (0.7-0.9) levels of closeness. The best model lies in the form of the relationship X1Y1 linear, and. In the measurement model, a characteristic of the reflective model is obtained, namely that the higher the closeness of the relationship, the better the model obtained. The originality of this research is the development of semiparametric SEM, which has not been widely studied by researchers.

Keywords: semiparametric SEM, measurement model, structural model, reflective model, formative model

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Authors: K. Parandhama Gowd

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The aim of this research paper is to conceptualize, discuss, analyze and propose alternate design methodologies for futuristic Black Box for flight safety. The proposal also includes global networking concepts for real time surveillance and monitoring of flight performance parameters including GPS parameters. It is expected that this proposal will serve as a failsafe real time diagnostic tool for accident investigation and location of debris in real time. In this paper, an attempt is made to improve the existing methods of flight data recording techniques and improve upon design considerations for futuristic FDR to overcome the trauma of not able to locate the block box. Since modern day communications and information technologies with large bandwidth are available coupled with faster computer processing techniques, the attempt made in this paper to develop a failsafe recording technique is feasible. Further data fusion/data warehousing technologies are available for exploitation.

Keywords: flight data recorder (FDR), black box, diagnostic tool, global networking, cockpit voice and data recorder (CVDR), air traffic control (ATC), air traffic, telemetry, tracking and control centers ATTTCC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 557

Authors: E. Dahlen

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Inflation can be calculated from either the prices of consumer products or from salaries. This paper presents a logical exercise that shows it is easier to calculate inflation from salaries than from consumer products. While the prices of consumer products may change due to technological advancement, such as automation, which must be corrected for, salaries do not. If technological advancements are not accounted for within calculations based on consumer product prices, inflation can be confused with real wage changes, since both inflation and real wage changes affect the prices of consumer products. The method employed in this paper is a logical exercise. Logical arguments are presented that suggest the existence of many different feasible ways by which inflation can be determined. Then a short mathematical exercise will be presented which shows that one of these methods –using salaries – contains the fewest number of unknown parameters, and hence, is the preferred method, since the risk of mistakes is lower. From the results, it can be concluded that salaries, rather than consumer products, should be used to calculate inflation.

Keywords: inflation, logic, math, real wages

Procedia PDF Downloads 304

Authors: Eunji Choi, Borang Park, Youngjae Choi, Jinwoo Moon

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In this study, a predictive model for estimating the metabolism (MET) of human body was developed for the optimal control of indoor thermal environment. Human body images for indoor activities and human body joint coordinated values were collected as data sets, which are used in predictive model. A deep learning algorithm was used in an initial model, and its number of hidden layers and hidden neurons were optimized. Lastly, the model prediction performance was analyzed after the model being trained through collected data. In conclusion, the possibility of MET prediction was confirmed, and the direction of the future study was proposed as developing various data and the predictive model.

Keywords: deep learning, indoor quality, metabolism, predictive model

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Fadime Eroglu

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Acanthamoeba genus belongs to kingdom protozoa, and it is known as free-living amoebae. Acanthamoeba genus has been isolated from human bodies, swimming pools, bottled mineral water, contact lens solutions, dust, and soil. The members of the genus Acanthamoeba causes Acanthamoeba Keratitis which is a painful sight-threatening disease of the eyes. In recent years, the prevalence of Acanthamoeba keratitis has been high rate reported. The eight different Acanthamoeba species are known to be effective in Acanthamoeba keratitis. These species are Acanthamoeba castellanii, Acanthamoeba polyphaga, Acanthamoeba griffini, Acanthamoeba hatchetti, Acanthamoeba culbertsoni and Acanhtamoeba rhysodes. The conventional diagnosis of Acanthamoeba Keratitis has relied on cytological preparations and growth of Acanthamoeba in culture. However molecular methods such as real-time PCR has been found to be more sensitive. The real-time PCR has now emerged as an effective method for more rapid testing for the diagnosis of infectious disease in decade. Therefore, a real-time PCR assay for the detection of Acanthamoeba keratitis and Acanthamoeba species have been developed in this study. The 18S rRNA sequences from Acanthamoeba species were obtained from National Center for Biotechnology Information and sequences were aligned with MEGA 6 programme. Primers and probe were designed using Custom Primers-OligoPerfectTMDesigner (ThermoFisherScientific, Waltham, MA, USA). They were also assayed for hairpin formation and degree of primer-dimer formation with Multiple Primer Analyzer ( ThermoFisherScientific, Watham, MA, USA). The eight different ATCC Acanthamoeba species were obtained, and DNA was extracted using the Qiagen Mini DNA extraction kit (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany). The DNA of Acanthamoeba species were analyzed using newly designed primer and probe set in real-time PCR assay. The early definitive laboratory diagnosis of Acanthamoeba Keratitis and the rapid initiation of suitable therapy is necessary for clinical prognosis. The results of the study have been showed that new primer and probes could be used for detection and distinguish for Acanthamoeba species. These new developing methods are helpful for diagnosis of Acanthamoeba Keratitis.

Keywords: Acathamoeba Keratitis, Acanthamoeba species, fast diagnosis, Real-Time PCR

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Junkyeong Kim, Jooyoung Park, Aoqi Zhang, Seunghee Park

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The tensile force of Pre-Stressed Concrete (PSC) girder is the most important factor for evaluating the performance of PSC girder bridges. To measure the tensile force of PSC girder, several NDT methods were studied. However, conventional NDT method cannot be applied to the real-size PSC girder because the PS tendons could not be approached. To measure the tensile force of real-size PSC girder, this study proposed embedded EM sensor based tensile force estimation method. The embedded EM sensor could be installed inside of PSC girder as a sheath joint before the concrete casting. After curing process, the PS tendons were installed, and the tensile force was induced step by step using hydraulic jacking machine. The B-H loop was measured using embedded EM sensor at each tensile force steps and to compare with actual tensile force, the load cell was installed at each end of girder. The magnetization energy loss, that is the closed area of B-H loop, was decreased according to the increase of tensile force with regular pattern. Thus, the tensile force could be estimated by the tracking the change of magnetization energy loss of PS tendons. Through the experimental result, the proposed method can be used to estimate the tensile force of the in-situ real-size PSC girder bridge.

Keywords: tensile force estimation, embedded EM sensor, magnetization energy loss, PSC girder

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Hacina Abchiche, Mounir Mellal, Imene Bouchelkia

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The knowledge of the rheological behavior of the used products in different fields is essential, both in digital simulation and the understanding of phenomenon involved during the flow of these products. The fluids presenting a nonlinear behavior represent an important category of materials used in the process of food-processing, chemical, pharmaceutical and oil industries. The issue is that the rheological characterization by classical rheometer cannot simulate, or take into consideration, the different parameters affecting the characterization of a complex fluid flow during real-time. The main objective of this study is to investigate the influence of the diameter of the flow conducts or pipe on the rheological behavior of a non-Newtonian fluid and Propose a mathematical model linking the rheologic parameters and the diameter of the conduits of flow. For this purpose, we have developed an experimental system based on the principal of a capillary rheometer.

Keywords: rhéologie, non-Newtonian fluids, experimental stady, mathematical model, cylindrical conducts

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: M. F. Haroun, T. A. Gulliver

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In this paper, an encryption algorithm is proposed for real-time image encryption. The scheme employs a dual chaotic generator based on a three dimensional (3D) discrete Lorenz attractor. Encryption is achieved using non-autonomous modulation where the data is injected into the dynamics of the master chaotic generator. The second generator is used to permute the dynamics of the master generator using the same approach. Since the data stream can be regarded as a random source, the resulting permutations of the generator dynamics greatly increase the security of the transmitted signal. In addition, a technique is proposed to mitigate the error propagation due to the finite precision arithmetic of digital hardware. In particular, truncation and rounding errors are eliminated by employing an integer representation of the data which can easily be implemented. The simple hardware architecture of the algorithm makes it suitable for secure real-time applications.

Keywords: chaotic systems, image encryption, non-autonomous modulation, FPGA

Procedia PDF Downloads 493

Authors: Myung Hwan Na, Ho- Chun Song, EunHee Hong

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We widely use normal linear mixed-effects model to analysis data in repeated measurement. In case of detecting heteroscedasticity and the non-normality of the population distribution at the same time, normal linear mixed-effects model can give improper result of analysis. To achieve more robust estimation, we use heavy tailed linear mixed-effects model which gives more exact and reliable analysis conclusion than standard normal linear mixed-effects model.

Keywords: reliability, tires, field data, linear mixed-effects model

Procedia PDF Downloads 551

Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

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This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

Procedia PDF Downloads 474

Authors: V. B. Bastos, M. P. Lima, P. R. G. Kurka

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This paper applies to the creation of virtual 3D environments for the study and development of mobile robot image based navigation algorithms and techniques, which need to operate robustly and efficiently. The test of these algorithms can be performed in a physical way, from conducting experiments on a prototype, or by numerical simulations. Current simulation platforms for robotic applications do not have flexible and updated models for image rendering, being unable to reproduce complex light effects and materials. Thus, it is necessary to create a test platform that integrates sophisticated simulated applications of real environments for navigation, with data and image processing. This work proposes the development of a high-level platform for building 3D model’s environments and the test of image-based navigation algorithms for mobile robots. Techniques were used for applying texture and lighting effects in order to accurately represent the generation of rendered images regarding the real world version. The application will integrate image processing scripts, trajectory control, dynamic modeling and simulation techniques for physics representation and picture rendering with the open source 3D creation suite - Blender.

Keywords: simulation, visual navigation, mobile robot, data visualization

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Linhang Zhu, Hongyu Zhu, Jiahe Liu

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This paper investigated a method of indoor real-time positioning and mapping based on the Manhattan world assumption. In indoor environments, relying solely on feature matching techniques or other geometric algorithms for sensor pose estimation inevitably resulted in cumulative errors, posing a significant challenge to indoor positioning. To address this issue, we adopt the Manhattan world hypothesis to optimize the camera pose algorithm based on feature matching, which improves the accuracy of camera pose estimation. A special processing method was applied to image data frames that conformed to the Manhattan world assumption. When similar data frames appeared subsequently, this could be used to eliminate drift in sensor pose estimation, thereby reducing cumulative errors in estimation and optimizing mapping and positioning. Through experimental verification, it is found that our method achieves high-precision real-time positioning in indoor environments and successfully generates maps of indoor environments. This provides effective technical support for applications such as indoor navigation and robot control.

Keywords: Manhattan world hypothesis, real-time positioning and mapping, feature matching, loopback detection

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Authors: Zhenyu Zhang, Hsi-Hsien Wei

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Highway network systems play a vital role in disaster response for disaster-damaged areas. Damaged bridges in such network systems can impede disaster response by disrupting transportation of rescue teams or humanitarian supplies. Therefore, emergency inspection and repair of bridges to quickly collect damage information of bridges and recover the functionality of highway networks is of paramount importance to disaster response. A widely used measure of a network’s capability to recover from disasters is resilience. To enhance highway network resilience, plenty of studies have developed various repair scheduling methods for the prioritization of bridge-repair tasks. These methods assume that repair activities are performed after the damage to a highway network is fully understood via inspection, although inspecting all bridges in a regional highway network may take days, leading to the significant delay in repairing bridges. In reality, emergency repair activities can be commenced as soon as the damage data of some bridges that are crucial to emergency response are obtained. Given that emergency bridge inspection and repair (EBIR) activities are executed simultaneously in the response phase, the real-time interactions between these activities can occur – the blockage of highways due to repair activities can affect inspection routes which in turn have an impact on emergency repair scheduling by providing real-time information on bridge damages. However, the impact of such interactions on the optimal emergency inspection routes (EIR) and emergency repair schedules (ERS) has not been discussed in prior studies. To overcome the aforementioned deficiencies, this study develops a routing and scheduling model for EBIR while accounting for real-time inspection-repair interactions to maximize highway network resilience. A stochastic, time-dependent integer program is proposed for the complex and real-time interacting EBIR problem given multiple inspection and repair teams at locations as set post-disaster. A hybrid genetic algorithm that integrates a heuristic approach into a traditional genetic algorithm to accelerate the evolution process is developed. Computational tests are performed using data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, based on a regional highway network in Sichuan, China, consisting of 168 highway bridges on 36 highways connecting 25 cities/towns. The results show that the simultaneous implementation of bridge inspection and repair activities can significantly improve the highway network resilience. Moreover, the deployment of inspection and repair teams should match each other, and the network resilience will not be improved once the unilateral increase in inspection teams or repair teams exceeds a certain level. This study contributes to both knowledge and practice. First, the developed mathematical model makes it possible for capturing the impact of real-time inspection-repair interactions on inspection routing and repair scheduling and efficiently deriving optimal EIR and ERS on a large and complex highway network. Moreover, this study contributes to the organizational dimension of highway network resilience by providing optimal strategies for highway bridge management. With the decision support tool, disaster managers are able to identify the most critical bridges for disaster management and make decisions on proper inspection and repair strategies to improve highway network resilience.

Keywords: disaster management, emergency bridge inspection and repair, highway network, resilience, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Castells Pau, Poetsch Christophe

Abstract:

The effect of gust and turbulence encounters on aircraft is a wide field of study which allows different approaches, from high-fidelity multidisciplinary simulations to more simplified models adapted to industrial applications. The typical main goal is to predict the gust loads on the aircraft in order to ensure a safe design and achieve certification. Another topic widely studied is the gust loads reduction through an active control law. The impact of gusts on aircraft handling qualities is of interest as well in the analysis of in-service events so as to evaluate the aircraft response and the performance of the flight control laws. Traditionally, gust loads and handling qualities are addressed separately with different models adapted to the specific needs of each discipline. In this paper, an assessment of the differences between both models is presented and a strategy to better account for the physics of gust encounters in a typical flight dynamics model is proposed based on the model used for gust loads analysis. The applied corrections aim to capture the gust unsteady aerodynamics and propagation as well as the effect of dynamic flexibility at low frequencies. Results from the gust loads model at different flight conditions and measures from real events are used for validation. An assessment of a possible extension of steady aerodynamic nonlinearities to low frequency range is also addressed. The proposed corrections provide meaningful means to evaluate the performance and possible adjustments of the flight control laws.

Keywords: flight dynamics, gust loads, handling qualities, unsteady aerodynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Xiaoyu Shen, Fang Fang, Chujun Qiu

Abstract:

Herewith we present a Fourier method for credit risk quantification and allocation in the factor-copula model framework. The key insight is that, compared to directly computing the cumulative distribution function of the portfolio loss via Monte Carlo simulation, it is, in fact, more efficient to calculate the transformation of the distribution function in the Fourier domain instead and inverting back to the real domain can be done in just one step and semi-analytically, thanks to the popular COS method (with some adjustments). We also show that the Euler risk allocation problem can be solved in the same way since it can be transformed into the problem of evaluating a conditional cumulative distribution function. Once the conditional or unconditional cumulative distribution function is known, one can easily calculate various risk metrics. The proposed method not only fills the niche in literature, to the best of our knowledge, of accurate numerical methods for risk allocation but may also serve as a much faster alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation method for risk quantification in general. It can cope with various factor-copula model choices, which we demonstrate via examples of a two-factor Gaussian copula and a two-factor Gaussian-t hybrid copula. The fast error convergence is proved mathematically and then verified by numerical experiments, in which Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and conditional Expected Shortfall are taken as examples of commonly used risk metrics. The calculation speed and accuracy are tested to be significantly superior to the MC simulation for real-sized portfolios. The computational complexity is, by design, primarily driven by the number of factors instead of the number of obligors, as in the case of Monte Carlo simulation. The limitation of this method lies in the "curse of dimension" that is intrinsic to multi-dimensional numerical integration, which, however, can be relaxed with the help of dimension reduction techniques and/or parallel computing, as we will demonstrate in a separate paper. The potential application of this method has a wide range: from credit derivatives pricing to economic capital calculation of the banking book, default risk charge and incremental risk charge computation of the trading book, and even to other risk types than credit risk.

Keywords: credit portfolio, risk allocation, factor copula model, the COS method, Fourier method

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Lien Fa Lin, Yung Ming Li, Hsin Chen Hsieh

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The rise of smartphones brings new concept So-Lo-Mo (social-local-mobile) in mobile commerce area in recent years. However, current So-Lo-Mo services only focus on individual users but not a group of users, and the development of group commerce is not enough to satisfy the demand of real-time group buying and less to think about the social relationship between customers. In this research, we integrate mobile intelligence with group commerce and consider customers' preference, real-time context, and social influence as components in the mechanism. With the support of this mechanism, customers are able to gather near customers with the same potential purchase willingness through mobile devices when he/she wants to purchase products or services to have a real-time group-buying. By matching the demand and supply of mobile group-buying market, this research improves the business value of mobile commerce and group commerce further.

Keywords: group formation, group commerce, mobile commerce, So-Lo-Mo, social influence

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: R. Simutis, V. Galvanauskas, D. Levisauskas, J. Repsyte, V. Grincas

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This paper deals with advanced state estimation algorithms for estimation of biomass concentration and specific growth rate in a typical fed-batch biotechnological process. This biotechnological process was represented by a nonlinear mass-balance based process model. Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Particle Filter (PF) was used to estimate the unmeasured state variables from oxygen uptake rate (OUR) and base consumption (BC) measurements. To obtain more general results, a simplified process model was involved in EKF and PF estimation algorithms. This model doesn’t require any special growth kinetic equations and could be applied for state estimation in various bioprocesses. The focus of this investigation was concentrated on the comparison of the estimation quality of the EKF and PF estimators by applying different measurement noises. The simulation results show that Particle Filter algorithm requires significantly more computation time for state estimation but gives lower estimation errors both for biomass concentration and specific growth rate. Also the tuning procedure for Particle Filter is simpler than for EKF. Consequently, Particle Filter should be preferred in real applications, especially for monitoring of industrial bioprocesses where the simplified implementation procedures are always desirable.

Keywords: biomass concentration, extended Kalman filter, particle filter, state estimation, specific growth rate

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Authors: Muneeb Ullah, Daishihan, Xiadong Young

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Deep learning plays a crucial role in identifying COVID-19 and preventing its spread. To improve the accuracy of COVID-19 diagnoses, it is important to have access to a sufficient number of training images of CXRs (chest X-rays) depicting the disease. However, there is currently a shortage of such images. To address this issue, this paper introduces COVID-19 GAN, a model that uses generative adversarial networks (GANs) to generate realistic CXR images of COVID-19, which can be used to train identification models. Initially, a generator model is created that uses digressive channels to generate images of CXR scans for COVID-19. To differentiate between real and fake disease images, an efficient discriminator is developed by combining the dense connectivity strategy and instance normalization. This approach makes use of their feature extraction capabilities on CXR hazy areas. Lastly, the deep regret gradient penalty technique is utilized to ensure stable training of the model. With the use of 4,062 grape leaf disease images, the Leaf GAN model successfully produces 8,124 COVID-19 CXR images. The COVID-19 GAN model produces COVID-19 CXR images that outperform DCGAN and WGAN in terms of the Fréchet inception distance. Experimental findings suggest that the COVID-19 GAN-generated CXR images possess noticeable haziness, offering a promising approach to address the limited training data available for COVID-19 model training. When the dataset was expanded, CNN-based classification models outperformed other models, yielding higher accuracy rates than those of the initial dataset and other augmentation techniques. Among these models, ImagNet exhibited the best recognition accuracy of 99.70% on the testing set. These findings suggest that the proposed augmentation method is a solution to address overfitting issues in disease identification and can enhance identification accuracy effectively.

Keywords: classification, deep learning, medical images, CXR, GAN.

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Višnjica Vučetić, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Barbara Malečić

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The Split wildfire on the mid-Adriatic Coast in July 2017 is one of the most severe wildfires in Croatian history, given the size and unexpected fire behavior, and it is used in this research as a case study to run the Weather Research and Forecasting Spread Fire (WRF SFIRE) model. This coupled fire-atmosphere model was successfully run for the first time ever for one Croatian wildfire case. Verification of coupled simulations was possible by using the detailed reconstruction of the Split wildfire. Specifically, precise information on ignition time and location, together with mapped fire progressions and spotting within the first 30 hours of the wildfire, was used for both – to initialize simulations and to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate fire’s propagation and final fire scar. The preliminary simulations were obtained using high-resolution vegetation and topography data for the fire area, additionally interpolated to fire grid spacing at 33.3 m. The results demonstrated that the WRF SFIRE model has the ability to work with real data from Croatia and produce adequate results for forecasting fire spread. As the model in its setup has the ability to include and exclude the energy fluxes between the fire and the atmosphere, this was used to investigate possible fire-atmosphere interactions during the Split wildfire. Finally, successfully coupled simulations provided the first numerical evidence that a wildfire from the Adriatic coast region can modify the dynamical structure of the surrounding atmosphere, which agrees with observations from fire grounds. This study has demonstrated that the WRF SFIRE model has the potential for operational application in Croatia with more accurate fire predictions in the future, which could be accomplished by inserting the higher-resolution input data into the model without interpolation. Possible uses for fire management in Croatia include prediction of fire spread and intensity that may vary under changing weather conditions, available fuels and topography, planning effective and safe deployment of ground and aerial firefighting forces, preventing wildland-urban interface fires, effective planning of evacuation routes etc. In addition, the WRF SFIRE model results from this research demonstrated that the model is important for fire weather research and education purposes in order to better understand this hazardous phenomenon that occurs in Croatia.

Keywords: meteorology, agrometeorology, fire weather, wildfires, couple fire-atmosphere model

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Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

Abstract:

In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Ates Gul Ergun, Melda Tacyildiz

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The current study focuses on the relationship between the personality traits and starting a romantic relationship on social media. It is interested in the study whether there are any personality trait differences between individuals who started their romantic relationships on social media platforms or through circle of friends in daily life. Sixty five participants between the ages of 18-30 filled out a three-question-survey about romantic relationships and social media, with the Big Five Inventory. Four separate independent samples t tests comparing agreeableness and extraversion scores on the environment of participants first interacted (online vs. real-life) and where they fırst meet without interaction (online vs. real-life) were carried out. The results indicated that there was a statistically significant difference between people who had the first interaction with their partner online vs. real-life in terms of extraversion and agreeableness traits. The more extrovert and agreeable traits reported the more people were likely to interact with their partner through circle of friends in real-life. Furthermore, it was found that people who are less agreeable have a tendency to interact with their partners in social media for the first time. However, there was no statistically significant difference between how participants met with their partners without interaction (online vs. real-life) in terms of extraversion and agreeableness traits. This study has shown the relationships between personality traits and starting a romantic relationship on social media versus in real-life but not the reasons behind it. Further research could examine such reasons. In addition, the data only includes Turkish sample. By virtue of the cultural restriction in the present study, it is suggested that the future research should also include different cultures to investigate how people spend time with their friends and also in social media which can be changed according to individualism levels of countries. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance and the role of social media in individual’s lives, and it opens the ways associated with personal traits and social media relationships for further researches.

Keywords: agreeableness, big five, extraversion, romantic relationships, social media

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: I. C. Tolias, A. G. Venetsanos, N. Markatos

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In the present work, CFD simulations of a large scale open deflagration experiment are performed. Stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture occupies a 20 m hemisphere. Two combustion models are compared and are evaluated against the experiment. The Eddy Dissipation Model and a Multi-physics combustion model which is based on Yakhot’s equation for the turbulent flame speed. The values of models’ critical parameters are investigated. The effect of the turbulence model is also examined. k-ε model and LES approach were tested.

Keywords: CFD, deflagration, hydrogen, combustion model

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Authors: Arum Kingsley Chinedu, Ugwuowo Fidelis Ifeanyi, Oranye Henrietta Ebele

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The Poisson regression model (PRM) is a nonlinear model that belongs to the exponential family of distribution. PRM is suitable for studying count variables using appropriate covariates and sometimes experiences the problem of multicollinearity in the explanatory variables and outliers on the response variable. This study aims to address the problem of multicollinearity and outliers jointly in a Poisson regression model. We developed an estimator called the robust modified jackknife PCKL parameter estimator by combining the principal component estimator, modified jackknife KL and transformed M-estimator estimator to address both problems in a PRM. The superiority conditions for this estimator were established, and the properties of the estimator were also derived. The estimator inherits the characteristics of the combined estimators, thereby making it efficient in addressing both problems. And will also be of immediate interest to the research community and advance this study in terms of novelty compared to other studies undertaken in this area. The performance of the estimator (robust modified jackknife PCKL) with other existing estimators was compared using mean squared error (MSE) as a performance evaluation criterion through a Monte Carlo simulation study and the use of real-life data. The results of the analytical study show that the estimator outperformed other existing estimators compared with by having the smallest MSE across all sample sizes, different levels of correlation, percentages of outliers and different numbers of explanatory variables.

Keywords: jackknife modified KL, outliers, multicollinearity, principal component, transformed M-estimator.

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Authors: J. Rhodes, V. Cheng, P. Lok

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to develop a parsimonious model that explains the effect of different stimulus on a tourist’s intention to visit a new destination. The model consists of destination trust and interest as the mediating variables. The model was tested using two different types of stimulus; both studies empirically supported the proposed model. Furthermore, the first study revealed that advertising has a stronger effect than positive online reviews. The second study found that the peripheral route of the elaboration likelihood model has a stronger influence power than the central route in this context.

Keywords: advertising, electronic word-of-mouth, elaboration likelihood model, intention to visit, trust

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Authors: Shutchapol Chopvitayakun

Abstract:

Internship program is a compulsory course of many undergraduate programs in Thailand. It gives opportunities to a lot of senior students as interns to practice their working skills in the real organizations and also gives chances for interns to face real-world working problems. Interns also learn how to solve those problems by direct and indirect experiences. This program in many schools is a well-structured course with a contract or agreement made with real business organizations. Moreover, this program also offers opportunities for interns to get jobs after completing it from where the internship program takes place. Interns also learn how to work as a team and how to associate with other colleagues, trainers, and superiors of each organization in term of social hierarchy, self-responsibility, and self-disciplinary. This research focuses on senior students of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, Thailand whose studying major is information technology program. They practiced their working skills or took internship programs in the real business sector or real operating organizations in 2015-2016. Interns are categorized in to two types: normal program and special program. For special program, students study in weekday evening from Monday to Friday or Weekend and most of them work full-time or part-time job. For normal program, students study in weekday working hours and most of them do not work. The differences of these characters and the outcomes of internship performance were studied and analyzed in this research. This work applied some statistical analytics to find out whether the internship performance of each intern type has different performances statistically or not.

Keywords: internship, intern, senior student, information technology program

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Authors: Ahmad Sarfaraz, Raiyad Herwies

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In this paper, a multi-criteria decision making analysis is used to help any organization selects the best KM tool that fits and serves its needs. The AHP model is used based on a previous study to highlight and identify the main criteria and sub-criteria that are incorporated in the selection process. Different KM tools alternatives with different criteria are compared and weighted accurately to be incorporated in the GP model. The main goal is to combine the GP model with the AHP model to ensure that selecting the KM tool considers the resource constraints. Two important issues are discussed in this paper: how different factors could be taken into consideration in forming the AHP model, and how to incorporate the AHP results into the GP model for better results.

Keywords: knowledge management, analytical hierarchy process, goal programming, multi-criteria decision making

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Authors: Longfei Wang, Selçuk Köse

Abstract:

Hardware Trojan becomes great concern as integrated circuit (IC) technology advances and not all manufacturing steps of an IC are accomplished within one company. Real-time hardware Trojan detection is proven to be a feasible way to detect randomly activated Trojans that cannot be detected at testing stage. On-chip sensors serve as a great candidate to implement real-time hardware Trojan detection, however, the optimization of on-chip sensors has not been thoroughly investigated and the location of Trojan has not been carefully explored. On-chip sensor ellipse distribution method and equivalent mapping technique are proposed based on the characteristics of on-chip power delivery network in this paper to address the optimization and distribution of on-chip sensors for real-time hardware Trojan detection as well as to estimate the location and current consumption of hardware Trojan. Simulation results verify that hardware Trojan activation can be effectively detected and the location of a hardware Trojan can be efficiently estimated with less than 5% error for a realistic power grid using our proposed methods. The proposed techniques therefore lay a solid foundation for isolation and even deactivation of hardware Trojans through accurate location of Trojans.

Keywords: hardware trojan, on-chip sensor, power distribution network, power/ground noise

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