Search results for: governance models

Authors: Avichal Malhotra, Jerome Frisch, Christoph van Treeck

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The utilization of semantic, cadastral and topological data from geographic information systems (GIS) has exponentially increased for building and urban-scale energy performance simulations. Urban planners, simulation scientists, and researchers use virtual 3D city models for energy analysis, algorithms and simulation tools. For dynamic energy simulations at city and district level, this paper provides an overview of the available GIS data models and their levels of detail. Adhering to different norms and standards, these models also intend to describe building and construction industry data. For further investigations, CityGML data models are considered for simulations. Though geographical information modelling has considerably many different implementations, extensions of virtual city data can also be made for domain specific applications. Highlighting the use of the extended CityGML models for energy researches, a brief introduction to the Energy Application Domain Extension (ADE) along with its significance is made. Consequently, addressing specific input simulation data, a workflow using Modelica underlining the usage of GIS information and the quantification of its significance over annual heating energy demand is presented in this paper.

Keywords: CityGML, EnergyADE, energy performance simulation, GIS

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Authors: Musyimi Mbathi

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Information regarding social, political, demographic, economic and other attributes of human settlement is important for decision makers at all levels of planning, as they have to grapple with dynamic environments often associated with settlements. At the local level, it is particularly important for both communities and urban managers to have accurate and reliable information regarding all planning attributes. Settlement mapping, in particular, informal settlements mapping in Kenya, has over the past few years been carried out using modern tools like Geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing for spatial data analysis and planning. GIS tools offer a platform for integration of spatial and non-spatial data as well as visualisation of the settlements. The capabilities offered by these tools have enabled communities to participate especially in the planning and management of new infrastructure as well as settlement upgrading. Land tenure based projects within informal settlements have also relied on GIS and related tools with considerable success. Additionally, the adoption of participatory approaches and use of geo-information tools helped to provide a basis for all inclusive planning thus promoting accountability, transparency, legitimacy, and other dimensions of governance within human settlement planning. The paper examines the context and application of geo-information tools for planning within low-income settlements of Kenya. A case study of Kiambiu settlement will be used to demonstrate how the tools have been applied for planning and decision-making purposes.

Keywords: informal settlements, GIS, governance, modern tools

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Authors: Shaan Khosla, Jon Krohn

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In a recruiting context, machine learning models are valuable for recommendations: to predict the best candidates for a vacancy, to match the best vacancies for a candidate, and compile a set of similar candidates for any given candidate. While useful to create these models, validating their accuracy in a recommendation context is difficult due to a sparsity of data. In this report, we use network graph data to generate useful representations for candidates and vacancies. We use candidates and vacancies as network nodes and designate a bi-directional link between them based on the candidate interviewing for the vacancy. After using node2vec, the embeddings are used to construct a validation dataset with a ranked order, which will help validate new recommender systems.

Keywords: AI, machine learning, NLP, recruiting

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Authors: Katalina Grigorova, Kaloyan Mironov

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The paper focuses on the benefits of business process modeling. Although this discipline is developing for many years, there is still necessity of creating new opportunities to meet the ever-increasing users’ needs. Because one of these needs is related to the conversion of business process models from one standard to another, the authors have developed a converter between BPMN and EPC standards using workflow patterns as intermediate tool. Nowadays there are too many systems for business process modeling. The variety of output formats is almost the same as the systems themselves. This diversity additionally hampers the conversion of the models. The presented study is aimed at discussing problems due to differences in the output formats of various modeling environments.

Keywords: business process modeling, business process modeling standards, workflow patterns, converting models

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Authors: Pitsanu Poonpetpun

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This research aimed to study opinions of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University administrative personnel towards performance of the university council committee by addressing (1) personal characteristics of the committees; (2) duties designated by the university council; and (3) relationship between university council and university administrative personnel. The population of this study including the president, vice presidents, faculty deans, deputy deans, office heads, director of office of president, directors, deputy directors, division directors, made a total of 118 respondents. Frequency, percentage, mean, and standard deviation were utilized in analyzing the data. The finding on opinions of the administrative personnel towards personal characteristics of the university council committees was averagely at a high level. The characteristic items were rated and revealed that the item gaining the highest mean score was the item stating that the university council committees obtained overall appropriate qualification. The items stating that the president of the teachers’ council acting as the university council committee had impartiality and good governance reported the lowest mean score. The opinions of the administrative personnel towards duty performance of the university council committees was averagely in a high level, in which the item gaining the highest mean score was the item stating that formulating rules and regulations or assigning governmental offices to do so was practiced with governance or fairness to all stakeholders, and the item stating that the president of the teachers’ council acting as the university council committee had impartiality good governance reported the lowest mean score. Moreover, the study found that the rating of opinions of the administrative personnel towards relationship between university council and university administrative personnel was averagely high. Relationship items were rated and revealed that the highest mean score was rated for the fact that the university president was empowered by the university council to manage the university with no violation of the policies. The fact that there was the integrity of policy between the university council and the university administrative personnel was rated the lowest score.

Keywords: performance, university council, education, university administrative personnel

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Authors: M. Soubadra Devy, Savitha Swamy, Chethana V. Casiker

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Sustainable smart cities are emerging as an important concept in response to the exponential rise in the world’s urbanizing population. While earlier, only technical, economic and governance based solutions were considered, more and more layers are being added in recent times. With the prefix of 'sustainability', solutions which help in judicious use of resources without negatively impacting the environment have become critical. We present a case study of Bangalore city which has transformed from being a garden city and pensioners' paradise to being an IT city with a huge, young population from different regions and diverse cultural backgrounds. This has had a big impact on the green spaces in the city and the biodiversity that they support, as well as on farming/gardening practices. Edible landscapes comprising farms lands, home gardens and neighbourhood parks (NPs henceforth) were examined. The land prices of areas having NPs were higher than those that did not indicate an appreciation of their aesthetic value. NPs were part of old and new residential areas largely managed by the municipality. They comprised manicured gardens which were similar in vegetation structure and composition. Results showed that NPs that occurred in higher density supported reasonable levels of biodiversity. In situations where NPs occurred in lower density, the presence of a larger green space such as a heritage park or botanical garden enhanced the biodiversity of these parks. In contrast, farm lands and home gardens which were common within the city are being lost at an unprecedented scale to developmental projects. However, there is also the emergence of a 'neo-culture' of home-gardening that promotes 'locovory' or consumption of locally grown food as a means to a sustainable living and reduced carbon footprint. This movement overcomes the space constraint by using vertical and terrace gardening techniques. Food that is grown within cities comprises of vegetables and fruits which are largely pollinator dependent. This goes hand in hand with our landscape-level study that has shown that cities support pollinator diversity. Maintaining and improving these man-made ecosystems requires analysing the functioning and characteristics of the existing structures of governance. Social network analysis tool was applied to NPs to examine relationships, between actors and ties. The management structures around NPs, gaps, and means to strengthen the networks from the current state to a near-ideal state were identified for enhanced services. Learnings from NPs were used to build a hypothetical governance structure and functioning of integrated governance of NPs and edible landscapes to enhance ecosystem services such as biodiversity support, food production, and aesthetic value. They also contribute to the sustainability axis of smart cities.

Keywords: biodiversity support, ecosystem services, edible green spaces, neighbourhood parks, sustainable smart city

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Authors: Fatima-Zahra Eddoug, Jamal Benhra, Rajaa Benabbou

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Several project management models exist in the literature and the most used ones are the hybrids for their multiple advantages. Our objective in this paper is to analyze the existing models, which are based on the Lean and Agile approaches and to propose a novel framework with the convenient tools that will allow efficient management of a general project. To create the desired framework, we were based essentially on 7 existing models. Only the Scrum tool among the agile tools was identified by several authors to be appropriate for project management. In contrast, multiple lean tools were proposed in different phases of the project.

Keywords: agility, hybrid project management, lean, scrum

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Authors: Gadinga Walter Forje, Martin Ngankam Tchamba, Nyong Princely Awazi, Barnabas Neba Nfornka

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Ecotourism is viewed as a double edge sword for the enhancement of conservation and local livelihood within a protected landscape. The Campo Ma’an National Park (CMNP) adopted ecotourism in its management plan as a strategic axis for better management of the park. The growing importance of ecotourism as a strategy for the sustainable management of CMNP and its environs requires adequate information to bolster the sector. This study was carried out between November 2018 and September 2021, with the main objective to contribute to the sustainable management of the CMNP through suggestions for enhancing the capacity of ecotourism in and around the park. More specifically, the study aimed at; 1) Analyse the governance of ecotourism in the CMNP and its surrounding; 2) Assessing the impact of ecotourism on local livelihood around the CMNP; 3) Evaluating the contribution of ecotourism to biodiversity conservation in and around the CMNP; 4) Evaluate the determinants of ecotourism possibilities in achieving sustainable livelihood and biodiversity conservation in and around the CMNP. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data were obtained from household surveys (N=124), focus group discussions (N=8), and key informant interviews (N=16). Data collected were coded and imputed into SPSS (version 19.0) software and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet for both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Findings from the Chi-square test revealed overall poor ecotourism governance in and around the CMNP, with benefit sharing (X2 = 122.774, p <0.01) and conflict management (X2 = 90.839, p<0.01) viewed to be very poor. For the majority of the local population sampled, 65% think ecotourism does not contribute to local livelihood around CMNP. The main factors influencing the impact of ecotourism around the CMNP on the local population’s livelihood were gender (logistic regression (β) = 1.218; p = 0.000); and level of education (logistic regression (β) = 0.442; p = 0.000). Furthermore, 55.6% of the local population investigated believed ecotourism activities do not contribute to the biodiversity conservation of CMNP. Spearman correlation between socio-economic variables and ecotourism impact on biodiversity conservation indicated relationships with gender (r = 0.200, p = 0.032), main occupation (r = 0.300 p = 0.012), time spent in the community (r = 0.287 p = 0.017), and number of children (r =-0.286 p = 0.018). Variables affecting ecotourism impact on biodiversity conservation were age (logistic regression (β) = -0.683; p = 0.037) and gender (logistic regression (β) = 0.917; p = 0.045). This study recommends the development of ecotourism-friendly policies that can accelerate Public Private Partnership for the sustainable management of the CMNP as a commitment toward good governance. It also recommends the development of gender-sensitive ecotourism packages, with fair opportunities for rural women and more parity in benefit sharing to improve livelihood and contribute more to biodiversity conservation in and around the Park.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, Campo Ma’an national park, ecotourism, ecotourism governance, rural livelihoods, protected area management

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Authors: Jonathan Palatz Cedeño

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The paper will seek to examine the scope and limitations of the process of construction of ordinary and extraordinary migration regulatory tools of the countries of Latin America, due to the Venezuelan diaspora in Ibero-America (2015-2018). The analysis methodology will be based on a systematic presentation of the existing advances in the subject under a qualitative approach, in which the results are detailed. We hold that an important part of the Latin American countries that used to be the emitters of migrants have had to generate, with greater or lesser success both nationally and regionally, ordinary and extraordinary migration regulatory tools to respond to the rapid intensification of the current Venezuelan migratory flows. This fact beyond implementing policies for the reception and integration of this population marks a new moment that represents a huge challenge both for the receiving States and for the young Ibero-American institutional migration system. Therefore, we can say that measures to adopt reception and solidarity policies, despite being supported by organs of the multilateral system such as UNHCR and IOM, are not found as guidelines for national and regional action, at the expense of the reactions of the respective public opinions and the influence of what to do of the neighboring countries in the face of the problem.

Keywords: Venezuela, migration, migration policies and governance, Venezuelan diaspora

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Authors: Gaoyuan Wang, Tian Chen, Junnan Liu

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Facing a period of major change that’s rarely seen in a century, China formulates the 14th Five-Year Plan and places emphasis on promoting high-quality development. In this context, the overall urban design has become a crucial and systematic tool for high-quality urban development. However, there are bottlenecks in the nature definition, content scope and transmission mechanisms of the current overall urban design in China. The paper interprets the emerging demands of the 14th Five-Year Plan on urban design in terms of new value-quality priority, new dynamic-space performance, new target-region coordination and new path-refined governance. Based on the new trend and appeal, the multi-dimensional thinking integrated with the major tasks of urban design are proposed accordingly, which is the biomass thinking in ecological, production and living element, the strategic thinking in spatial structure, the systematic thinking in the cityscape, the low-carbon thinking in urban form, the governance thinking in public space, the user thinking in design implementation. The paper explores the possibility of transforming the value thinking and technical system of urban design in China and provides a breakthrough path for the urban planning and design industry to better respond to the propositions of the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: China’s 14th five-year plan, overall urban design, urban design thinking, transformation of urban design

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Authors: Sabiu Bala Muhammad, Rosli Saad

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Multiple linear regression (MLR) models for fast estimation of true subsurface resistivity from apparent resistivity field measurements are developed and assessed in this study. The parameters investigated were apparent resistivity (ρₐ), horizontal location (X) and depth (Z) of measurement as the independent variables; and true resistivity (ρₜ) as the dependent variable. To achieve linearity in both resistivity variables, datasets were first transformed into logarithmic domain following diagnostic checks of normality of the dependent variable and heteroscedasticity to ensure accurate models. Four MLR models were developed based on hierarchical combination of the independent variables. The generated MLR coefficients were applied to another data set to estimate ρₜ values for validation. Contours of the estimated ρₜ values were plotted and compared to the observed data plots at the colour scale and blanking for visual assessment. The accuracy of the models was assessed using coefficient of determination (R²), standard error (SE) and weighted mean absolute percentage error (wMAPE). It is concluded that the MLR models can estimate ρₜ for with high level of accuracy.

Keywords: apparent resistivity, depth, horizontal location, multiple linear regression, true resistivity

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Authors: Milica Ž. Karadžić, Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević, Anamarija I. Mandić, Katarina Penov-Gaši, Andrea R. Nikolić, Aleksandar M. Oklješa

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This study considered selection of the in silico molecular descriptors and the models for newly synthesized steroid derivatives description and their characterization using chemometric techniques. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were established and gave the best molecular descriptors for quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) modeling of the retention of the investigated molecules. MLR models were without multicollinearity among the selected molecular descriptors according to the variance inflation factor (VIF) values. Used molecular descriptors were ranked using generalized pair correlation method (GPCM). In this method, the significant difference between independent variables can be noticed regardless almost equal correlation between dependent variable. Generated MLR models were statistically and cross-validated and the best models were kept. Models were ranked using sum of ranking differences (SRD) method. According to this method, the most consistent QSRR model can be found and similarity or dissimilarity between the models could be noticed. In this study, SRD was performed using average values of experimentally observed data as a golden standard. Chemometric analysis was conducted in order to characterize newly synthesized steroid derivatives for further investigation regarding their potential biological activity and further synthesis. This article is based upon work from COST Action (CM1105), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).

Keywords: generalized pair correlation method, molecular descriptors, regression analysis, steroids, sum of ranking differences

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Authors: Giorgia Carratta

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Since the beginning of mass production, plastic items have been crucial in our daily lives. Thanks to their physical and chemical properties, plastic materials have proven almost irreplaceable in a number of economic sectors such as packaging, automotive, building and construction, textile, and many others. At the same time, the disruptive consequences of plastic pollution have been progressively brought to light in all environmental compartments. The overaccumulation of plastics in the environment, and its adverse effects on habitats, wildlife, and (most likely) human health, represents a call for action to decision-makers around the globe. From a regulatory perspective, plastic production is an unprecedented challenge at all levels of governance. At the international level, the design of new legal instruments, the amendment of existing ones, and the coordination among the several relevant policy areas requires considerable effort. Under the pressure of both increasing scientific evidence and a concerned public opinion, countries seem to slowly move towards the discussion of a new international ‘plastic treaty.’ However, whether, how, and with which scopes such instrument would be adopted is still to be seen. Additionally, governments are establishing regional-basedstrategies, prone to consider the specificities of the plastic issue in a certain geographical area. Thanks to the new Circular Economy Action Plan, approved in March 2020 by the European Commission, EU countries are slowly but steadily shifting to a carbon neutral, circular economy in the attempt to reduce the pressure on natural resources and, parallelly, facilitate sustainable economic growth. In this context, the EU Plastic Strategy is promising to change the way plastic is designed, produced, used, and treated after consumption. In fact, only in the EU27 Member States, almost 26 million tons of plastic waste are generated herein every year, whose 24,9% is still destined to landfill. Positive effects of the Strategy also include a more effective protection of our environment, especially the marine one, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, a reduced need for imported fossil energy sources, more sustainable production and consumption patterns. As promising as it may sound, the road ahead is still long. The need to implement these measures in domestic legislations makes their outcome difficult to predict at the moment. An analysis of the current international and European Union legal framework on plastic pollution, binding, and voluntary instruments included, could serve to detect ‘blind spots’ in the current governance as well as to facilitate the development of policy interventions along the plastic value chain, where it appears more needed.

Keywords: environmental law, European union, governance, plastic pollution, sustainability

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Authors: Navid Daryasafar, Nima Farshidfar

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In this article, we make attempt to hide error in video with an emphasis on the time-wise use of autoregressive (AR) models. To resolve this problem, we assume that all information in one or more video frames is lost. Then, lost frames are estimated using analogous Pixels time information in successive frames. Accordingly, after presenting autoregressive models and how they are applied to estimate lost frames, two general methods are presented for using these models. The first method which is the same standard method of autoregressive models estimates lost frame in unidirectional form. Usually, in such condition, previous frames information is used for estimating lost frame. Yet, in the second method, information from the previous and next frames is used for estimating the lost frame. As a result, this method is known as bidirectional estimation. Then, carrying out a series of tests, performance of each method is assessed in different modes. And, results are compared.

Keywords: error steganography, unidirectional estimation, bidirectional estimation, AR linear estimation

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Authors: Marcel Chevalier, Léo Dupont, Sylvain Marié, Frédérique Roffet, Elena Stolyarova, William Templier, Costin Vasile

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Industrial end-users are currently facing an increasing need to reduce the risk of unexpected failures and optimize their maintenance. This calls for both short-term analysis and long-term ageing anticipation. At Schneider Electric, we tackle those two issues using both machine learning and first principles models. Machine learning models are incrementally trained from normal data to predict expected values and detect statistically significant short-term deviations. Ageing models are constructed by breaking down physical systems into sub-assemblies, then determining relevant degradation modes and associating each one to the right kinetic law. Validating such anomaly detection and maintenance models is challenging, both because actual incident and ageing data are rare and distorted by human interventions, and incremental learning depends on human feedback. To overcome these difficulties, we propose to simulate physics, systems, and humans -including asset maintenance operations- in order to validate the overall approaches in accelerated time and possibly choose between algorithmic alternatives.

Keywords: degradation models, ageing, anomaly detection, soft sensor, incremental learning

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Authors: Jeongmin Kim, Eunju Lee, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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This paper addresses the problem of predictive control for energy management of large-scaled exhibition halls, where a lot of energy is consumed to maintain internal atmosphere under certain required conditions. Predictive control achieves better energy efficiency by optimizing the operation of air-conditioning facilities with not only the current but also some future status taken into account. In this paper, we propose to use predictive models learned from past sensor data of hall environment, for use in optimizing the operating plan for the air-conditioning facilities by simulating future environmental change. We have implemented an emulator of an exhibition hall by using EnergyPlus, a widely used building energy emulation tool, to collect data for learning environment-change models. Experimental results show that the learned models predict future change highly accurately on a short-term basis.

Keywords: predictive control, energy management, machine learning, optimization

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Authors: Nahla H. Alaswadko, Rayya A. Hassan, Bayar N. Mohammed

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Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.

Keywords: roughness progression, empirical model, pavement performance, heavy duty pavement

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: wind power, uncertainty, stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Onyinyechi Lilian Uche

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Limiting arbitrariness and political power in governance is expressed in the concept of constitutionalism. Constitutionalism acknowledges the necessity for government but insists upon a limitation being placed upon its powers. It is therefore clear that the essence of constitutionalism is obviation of arbitrariness in governance and maximisation of liberty with adequate and expedient restraint on government. The doctrine of separation of powers accompanied by a system of checks and balances in Nigeria like many other African countries is marked by elements of ‘personal government’ and this has raised questions about whether the apparent separation of powers provided for in the Nigerian Constitution is not just a euphemism for the hegemony of the executive over the other two arms of government; the legislature and the judiciary. Another question raised in the article is whether the doctrine is merely an abstract philosophical inheritance that lacks both content and relevance to the realities of the country and region today? The current happenings in Nigeria and most African countries such as the flagrant disregard of court orders by the Executive, indicate clearly that the concept constitutionalism ordinarily goes beyond mere form and strikes at the substance of a constitution. It, therefore, involves a consideration of whether there are provisions in the constitution which limit arbitrariness in the exercise of political powers by providing checks and balances upon such exercise. These questions underscore the need for Africa to craft its own understanding of the separation of powers between the arms of government in furtherance of good governance as it has been seen that it is possible to have a constitution in place which may just be a mere statement of unenforceable ‘rights’ or may be bereft of provisions guaranteeing liberty or adequate and necessary restraint on exercise of government. This paper seeks to expatiate on the importance of the nexus between constitutionalism and democratic process and a juxtaposition of practices between Nigeria and South Africa. The article notes that an abstract analysis of constitutionalism without recourse to the democratic process is meaningless and also analyses the structure of government of some selected African countries. These are examined the extent to which the doctrine operates within the arms of government and concludes that it should not just be regarded as a general constitutional principle but made rigid or perhaps effective and binding through law and institutional reforms.

Keywords: checks and balances, constitutionalism, democratic process, separation of power

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Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

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As a great physiographic divide, the Himalayas affecting a large system of water and air circulation which helps to determine the climatic condition in the Indian subcontinent to the south and mid-Asian highlands to the north. It creates obstacles by defending chill continental air from north side into India in winter and also defends rain-bearing southwesterly monsoon to give up maximum precipitation in that area in monsoon season. Nowadays extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation, cloudburst, flash flood, landslide and extreme avalanches are the regular happening incidents in the region of North Western Himalayan (NWH). The present study has been planned to investigate the suitable model(s) to find out the rainfall pattern over that region. For this investigation, selected models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been utilized in a consistent framework for the period of 1976 to 2000 (historical). The ability of these driving models from CORDEX domain and CMIP5 has been examined according to their capability of the spatial distribution as well as time series plot of rainfall over NWH in the rainy season and compared with the ground-based Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data set. It is noted from the analysis that the models like MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR from the both CORDEX and CMIP5 provide the best spatial distribution of rainfall over NWH region. But the driving models from CORDEX underestimates the daily rainfall amount as compared to CMIP5 driving models as it is unable to capture daily rainfall data properly when it has been plotted for time series (TS) individually for the state of Uttarakhand (UK) and Himachal Pradesh (HP). So finally it can be said that the driving models from CMIP5 are better than CORDEX domain models to investigate the rainfall pattern over NWH region.

Keywords: global warming, rainfall, CMIP5, CORDEX, NWH

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Authors: Krishang Surapaneni

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The goal of this project is to determine how to predict important aspects of options, including the ask price. We want to compare different machine learning models to learn the best model and the best hyperparameters for that model for this purpose and data set. Option pricing is a relatively new field, and it can be very complicated and intimidating, especially to inexperienced people, so we want to create a machine learning model that can predict important aspects of an option stock, which can aid in future research. We tested multiple different models and experimented with hyperparameter tuning, trying to find some of the best parameters for a machine-learning model. We tested three different models: a Random Forest Regressor, a linear regressor, and an MLP (multi-layer perceptron) regressor. The most important feature in this experiment is the ask price; this is what we were trying to predict. In the field of stock pricing prediction, there is a large potential for error, so we are unable to determine the accuracy of the models based on if they predict the pricing perfectly. Due to this factor, we determined the accuracy of the model by finding the average percentage difference between the predicted and actual values. We tested the accuracy of the machine learning models by comparing the actual results in the testing data and the predictions made by the models. The linear regression model performed worst, with an average percentage error of 17.46%. The MLP regressor had an average percentage error of 11.45%, and the random forest regressor had an average percentage error of 7.42%

Keywords: finance, linear regression model, machine learning model, neural network, stock price

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Authors: Jayati Das

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Kolkata, one of the fastest-growing metropolises in India, has been suffering from air pollution for many decades. Mismanagement of government and an increase in automobiles have been fuelling this problem. The study aims to portray the quality of air along with the influence of traffic flow and vehicular growth and the effects on human health. It further shows the correlation between the emission of pollution during weekdays and weekends with the help of a scatter diagram and trend line. An assessment of Kolkata air quality is done where the listed pollutants’ (RPM, SPM, NO2, and SO2) annual average concentrations are classified into four different categories. Our observed association between childhood Acute Respiratory disorder and early life exposure to traffic-related air pollutants is biologically plausible. The period of in utero and the first year of life is critical in the development of the immune and respiratory systems and potentially harmful effects of toxic pollutants during this period might result in the long-lasting impaired capacity to fight infections and increased risk of allergic manifestations. Up-to-date knowledge about the seasonal and spatial variation of asthma and studying the air quality of the area is done through Geographical Information System (GIS). Steps are taken by the government to control air pollution by alternative public transport like the metro and compulsory certification of period-driven vehicles which test for Carbon mono oxide.

Keywords: air pollution, asthma, GIS, hotspots, governance

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Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

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In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: equivalent martingale measure, European put option, girsanov theorem, martingales, monte carlo method, option price valuation formula

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Authors: Adilson Elias Xavier, Otto Corrêa Rotunno Filho, Paulo Canedo De Magalhães

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This paper addresses the issue of automatic parameter estimation in conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) models. Due to threshold structures commonly occurring in CRR models, the associated mathematical optimization problems have the significant characteristic of being strongly non-differentiable. In order to face this enormous task, the resolution method proposed adopts a smoothing strategy using a special C∞ differentiable class function. The final estimation solution is obtained by solving a sequence of differentiable subproblems which gradually approach the original conceptual problem. The use of this technique, called Hyperbolic Smoothing Method (HSM), makes possible the application of the most powerful minimization algorithms, and also allows for the main difficulties presented by the original CRR problem to be overcome. A set of computational experiments is presented for the purpose of illustrating both the reliability and the efficiency of the proposed approach.

Keywords: rainfall-runoff models, automatic calibration, hyperbolic smoothing method

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Authors: Mehdi Seifbarghy, Zahra Mansouri

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In this paper a few location-allocation models are developed in a multi-echelon supply chain including suppliers, manufacturers, distributors and retailers. The objectives are maximizing demand coverage, minimizing the total distance of distributors from suppliers, minimizing some facility establishment costs and minimizing the environmental effects. Since nature of the given models is multi-objective, we suggest a number of goal-based solution techniques such L-P metric, goal programming, multi-choice goal programming and goal attainment in order to solve the problems.

Keywords: location, multi-echelon supply chain, covering, goal programming

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Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

Abstract:

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: Nodelman V.

Abstract:

Despite serious difficulties in the assimilation of the conceptual system of Calculus, software in the educational process is used only occasionally, and even then, mainly for illustration purposes. The following are a few reasons: The non-trivial nature of the studied material, Lack of skills in working with software, Fear of losing time working with software, The variety of the software itself, the corresponding interface, syntax, and the methods of working with the software, The need to find suitable models, and familiarize yourself with working with them, Incomplete compatibility of the found models with the content and teaching methods of the studied material. This paper proposes an active use of the developed non-commercial software VusuMatica, which allows removing these restrictions through Broad support for the studied mathematical material (and not only Calculus). As a result - no need to select the right software, Emphasizing the unity of mathematics, its intrasubject and interdisciplinary relations, User-friendly interface, Absence of special syntax in defining mathematical objects, Ease of building models of the studied material and manipulating them, Unlimited flexibility of models thanks to the ability to redefine objects, which allows exploring objects characteristics, and considering examples and counterexamples of the concepts under study. The construction of models is based on an original approach to the analysis of the structure of the studied concepts. Thanks to the ease of construction, students are able not only to use ready-made models but also to create them on their own and explore the material studied with their help. The presentation includes examples of using VusuMatica in studying the concepts of limit and continuity of a function, its derivative, and integral.

Keywords: counterexamples, limitations and requirements, software, teaching and learning calculus, user-friendly interface and syntax

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Authors: H. Djebar, L. Khene, M. Boucenna, M. R. Djebar, M. N. Khebbeb, M. Djekoun

Abstract:

Currently in toxicology, use of alternative models permits to understand the mechanisms of toxicity at different levels of cells. Objectives of our research concern the determination of NPs ZnO, TiO2, AlO2, and FeO2 effect on ciliate protist freshwater Paramecium sp and Helix aspersa. The result obtained show that NPs increased antioxidative enzyme activity like catalase, glutathione –S-transferase and level GSH. Also, cells treated with high concentrations of NPs showed a high level of MDA. In conclusion, observations from growth and enzymatic parameters suggest on one hand that treatment with NPs provokes an oxidative stress and on the other that snale and paramecium are excellent alternatives models for ecotoxicological studies.

Keywords: NPs, GST, catalase, GSH, MDA, toxicity, snale and paramecium

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Authors: Yolanda Indah Permatasari, Sudarsono Hardjosoekarto

Abstract:

Public private partnership (PPP) scheme was considered as an alternative source of funding for infrastructure provision. However, the performance of PPP scheme and interest of private sector to participate in the provision of infrastructure was still practically low. This phenomenon motivates the research to reconstruct the form of collaborative governance at the policy level from the perspective of transaction cost of the PPP scheme. Soft-system methodology (SSM)-based action research was used as this research methodology. The result of this study concludes that the emergence of transaction cost sources at the policy level is caused by the absence of a law that governs infrastructure investment, especially the implementation of PPP scheme. This absence is causing the imbalance in risk allocation and risk mitigation between the public and private sector. Thus, this research recommended the formulation of infrastructure investment law that aims to minimize asymmetry information, to anticipate the principal-principal problems, and to provide legal basis that ensures risk certainty and guarantee fair risk allocation between public and private sector.

Keywords: public governance, public private partnership, soft system methodology, transaction cost

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Authors: Talib Jan Abasindhi

Abstract:

Democracy has reached almost every nuke & corner of the globe. It is well embedded in the political systems found in the majority of the countries in the world. Political parties, their manifestos, and programs are educating their people for better democracy and good governance, as well as service delivery in many countries around the globe. Although democracy in Pakistan by itself is in its infancy stage, yet, there is a region consisting of three districts (administrative units) lying in the North of the country where democracy is yet unknown to a wide range of population bounded into a series of mountains from Himalayan and Karakuram ranges. Political parties are struggling now to get their roots in the area while disrupting the traditional and tribal electoral system prevailing in the region. This paper will shed light on an interesting subject of casting lots for nomination as candidatures for general and local bodies’ elections in Kohistani region in Pakistan. The people of wisdom and knowledge in the modern world deem such societies as uncivilized where these practices are found. No one can believe it in today’s world, yet, this practice has been common in Kohistani region over the past many decades, and there have been many reasons for this too. Through this paper, we shall not only make others aware of the process and procedure practiced in casting the lots in elections in democratic Pakistan, but rather we shall also talk about its very basic reasons and suggestions as a solution for this menace to be eliminated.

Keywords: democracy, casting lots, governance, Kohistani region

Procedia PDF Downloads 64