Search results for: longitudinal model

Authors: Rosa S. Wong, Keith T. S. Tung, Frederick K. Ho, Winnie W. Y. Tso, King-wa Fu, Nirmala Rao, Patrick Ip

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As technology advances, exposures in early childhood are no longer confined to stimulations in the surrounding physical environments. Children nowadays are also subject to influences from the digital world. In particular, early access to game consoles can cause risks to child development, especially when the game is not developmentally appropriate for young children. Overstimulation is possible and could impair brain development. On the other hand, recreational parent-child activities, including outdoor activities and visits to museums, require child interaction with parents, which is beneficial for developing adaptive emotion regulation and social skills. Given the differences between these two types of exposures, this study investigated and compared the independent effects of early exposure to a game console and early play-based parent-child activities on children’s long-term psychosocial outcomes. This study used data from a subset of children (n=304, 142 male and 162 female) in the longitudinal cohort study, which studied the long-term impact of family socioeconomic status on child development. In 2012/13, we recruited a group of children at Kindergarten 3 (K3) randomly from Hong Kong local kindergartens and collected data regarding their duration of exposure to game console and recreational parent-child activities at that time. In 2018/19, we re-surveyed the parents of these children who were matriculated as Form 1 (F1) students (ages ranging from 11 to 13 years) in secondary schools and asked the parents to rate their children’s psychosocial problems in F1. Linear regressions were conducted to examine the associations between early exposures and adolescent psychosocial problems with and without adjustment for child gender and K3 family socioeconomic status. On average, K3 children spent about 42 minutes on a game console every day and had 2-3 recreational activities with their parents every week. Univariate analyses showed that more time spent on game consoles at K3 was associated with more psychosocial difficulties in F1 particularly more externalizing problems. The effect of early exposure to game console on externalizing behavior remained significant (B=0.59, 95%CI: 0.15 to 1.03, p=0.009) after adjusting for recreational parent-child activities and child gender. For recreational parent-child activities at K3, its effect on overall psychosocial difficulties became insignificant after adjusting for early exposure to game consoles and child gender. However, it was found to have significant protective effect on externalizing problems (B=-0.65, 95%CI: -1.23 to -0.07, p=0.028) even after adjusting for the confounders. Early exposure to game consoles has negative impact on children’s psychosocial health, whereas play-based parent-child activities can foster positive psychosocial outcomes. More efforts should be directed to propagate the risks and benefits of these activities and urge the parents and caregivers to replace child-alone screen time with parent-child play time in daily routine.

Keywords: early childhood, electronic device, parenting, psychosocial wellbeing

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Authors: Mustapha Babatunde, Bassam Tawabini, Ole John Nielson

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Air dispersion (AD) models such as AERMOD are important tools for estimating the environmental impacts of air pollutant emissions into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources. The outcome of these models is significantly linked to the climate condition like air temperature, which is expected to differ in the future due to the global warming phenomenon. With projections from scientific sources of impending changes to the future climate of Saudi Arabia, especially anticipated temperature rise, there is a potential direct impact on the dispersion patterns of air pollutants results from AD models. To our knowledge, no similar studies were carried out in Saudi Arabia to investigate such impact. Therefore, this research investigates the effects of climate temperature change on air quality in the Dammam Metropolitan area, Saudi Arabia, using AERMOD coupled with Station data using Sulphur dioxide (SO2) – as a model air pollutant. The research uses AERMOD model to predict the SO2 dispersion trends on the surrounding area. Emissions from five (5) industrial stacks, on twenty-eight (28) receptors in the study area were considered for the climate period (2010-2019) and future period of mid-century (2040-2060) under different scenarios of elevated temperature profiles (+1oC, + 3oC and + 5oC) across averaging time periods of 1hr, 4hr and 8hr. Results showed that levels of SO2 at the receiving sites under current and simulated future climactic condition fall within the allowable limit of WHO and KSA air quality standards. Results also revealed that the projected rise in temperature would only have mild increment on the SO2 concentration levels. The average increase of SO2 levels were 0.04%, 0.14%, and 0.23% due to the temperature increase of 1, 3, and 5 degrees respectively. In conclusion, the outcome of this work elucidates the degree of the effects of global warming and climate changes phenomena on air quality and can help the policymakers in their decision-making, given the significant health challenges associated with ambient air pollution in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: air quality, sulphur dioxide, global warming, air dispersion model

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Authors: Mahesh Balan U, Rohith Srinivaas Mohanakrishnan, Venkat Subramanian

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Positive and unlabeled learning (PU) has gained more attention in both academic and industry research literature recently because of its relevance to existing business problems today. Yet, there still seems to be some existing challenges in terms of validating the performance of PU learning, as the actual truth of unlabeled data points is still unknown in contrast to a binary classification where we know the truth. In this study, we propose a novel PU learning technique based on the Pseudo-F measure, where we address this research gap. In this approach, we train the PU model to discriminate the probability distribution of the positive and unlabeled in the validation and spy data. The predicted probabilities of the PU model have a two-fold validation – (a) the predicted probabilities of reliable positives and predicted positives should be from the same distribution; (b) the predicted probabilities of predicted positives and predicted unlabeled should be from a different distribution. We experimented with this approach on a credit marketing case study in one of the world’s biggest fintech platforms and found evidence for benchmarking performance and backtested using historical data. This study contributes to the existing literature on semi-supervised learning.

Keywords: PU learning, semi-supervised learning, pseudo f measure, classification

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Authors: Rizwan Fazal

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This study investigates the behavior of external sector of Pakistan economy and its impact on economic growth, using quarterly data for the period 1990:01-2010:04. External sector indices used in this study are financial integration, net foreign assets and trade integration. Augmented Ducky fuller confirms that all variables of external sector are non-stationary at level, but at first difference it becomes stationary. The co-integration test suggests one co-integrating variables in the study. The analysis is based on Vector Auto Regression model followed by Vector Error Correction Model. The empirical findings show that financial integration play important role in increasing economic growth in Pakistan economy while trade integration has negative effect on economic growth of Pakistan in the long run. However, the short run confirms that output lag accounts for error correction. The estimated CUSUM and CUSUMQ stability test provide information that the period of the study equation remains stable.

Keywords: financial integration, trade integration, net foreign assets, gross domestic product

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Authors: Tosin Deborah Akanbi

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The Building Information Modeling Execution Plan (BEP) is a document that manifests the specifications for the adoption and execution of building information modeling in the construction sector in an organized manner so as to attain the listed goals. In this regard, the study examined the barriers to the adoption of building information modeling, evaluated the effect of building information modeling adoption characteristics on the key elements of a building information modeling execution plan and developed a strategic framework for a BEP in the Lagos State construction industry. Data were gathered through a questionnaire survey with 332 construction professionals in the study area. Three online structured interviews were conducted to support and validate the findings of the quantitative analysis. The results showed the significant relationships and connections between the variables in the framework: BIM usage and model quality control (aBIMskill -> dMQ, Beta = 0.121, T statistics = 1.829), BIM adoption characteristics and information exchange (bBIM_CH -> dIE, Beta = 0.128, T statistics = 1.727), BIM adoption characteristics and process design (bBIM_CH -> dPD, Beta = 0.170, T statistics = 2.754), BIM adoption characteristics and roles and responsibilities (bBIM_CH -> dRR, Beta = 0.131, T statistics = 2.181), interest BIM barriers and BIM adoption characteristics (cBBIM_INT -> bBIM_CH, Beta = 0.137, T statistics = 2.309), legal BIM barriers and BIM adoption characteristics (cBBIM_LEG -> bBIM_CH, Beta = 0.168, T statistics = 2.818), professional BIM barriers and BIM adoption characteristics (cBBIM_PRO -> bBIM_CH, Beta = 0.152, T statistics = 2.645). The results also revealed that seven final themes were generated, namely: model structure and process design, BIM information exchange and collaboration procedures, project goals and deliverables, project model quality control, roles and responsibilities, reflect Lagos state construction industry and validity of the BEP framework. Thus, there is a need for the policy makers to direct interventions to promote, encourage and support the understanding and adoption of BIM by emphasizing the various benefits of using the technology in the Lagos state construction industry.

Keywords: building information modelling execution plan, BIM adoption characteristics, BEP framework, construction industry

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Authors: T. H. N. Nguyen, A. Khodan, M. Amamra, J-V. Vignes, A. Kanaev

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The ultraporous nanofibrous alumina (NOA, Al2O3·nH2O) was synthesized by oxidation of laminated aluminium plates through a liquid mercury-silver layer in a humid atmosphere ~80% at 25°C. The material has an extremely high purity (99%), porosity (90%) and specific area (300 m2/g). The subsequent annealing of raw NOA permits obtaining pure transition phase (γ and θ) nanostructured materials. In this combination, we report on chemical, structural and phase transformations of pure and modified NOA by an impregnation of trimethylethoxysilane (TMES) and tetraethoxysilane (TEOS) during thermal annealing in the temperature range between 20 and 1650°C. The mass density, specific area, average diameter and specific area are analysed. The 3D model of pure NOA monoliths and silica modified NOA is proposed, which successfully describes the evolution of specific area, mass density and phase transformations. Activation energies of the mass transport in two regimes of surface diffusion and bulk sintering were obtained based on this model. We conclude about a common origin of modifications of the NOA morphology, chemical composition and phase transition.

Keywords: nanostructured materials, alumina (Al₂O₃), morphology, phase transitions

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Authors: Regina A. Tayong, Reza Barati

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A stable, fast and robust three-phase, 2D IMPES simulator has been developed for assessing the influence of; breaker concentration on yield stress of filter cake and broken gel viscosity, varying polymer concentration/yield stress along the fracture face, fracture conductivity, fracture length, capillary pressure changes and formation damage on fracturing fluid cleanup in tight gas reservoirs. This model has been validated as against field data reported in the literature for the same reservoir. A 2-D, two-phase (gas/water) fracture propagation model is used to model our invasion zone and create the initial conditions for our clean-up model by distributing 200 bbls of water around the fracture. A 2-D, three-phase IMPES simulator, incorporating a yield-power-law-rheology has been developed in MATLAB to characterize fluid flow through a hydraulically fractured grid. The variation in polymer concentration along the fracture is computed from a material balance equation relating the initial polymer concentration to total volume of injected fluid and fracture volume. All governing equations and the methods employed have been adequately reported to permit easy replication of results. The effect of increasing capillary pressure in the formation simulated in this study resulted in a 10.4% decrease in cumulative production after 100 days of fluid recovery. Increasing the breaker concentration from 5-15 gal/Mgal on the yield stress and fluid viscosity of a 200 lb/Mgal guar fluid resulted in a 10.83% increase in cumulative gas production. For tight gas formations (k=0.05 md), fluid recovery increases with increasing shut-in time, increasing fracture conductivity and fracture length, irrespective of the yield stress of the fracturing fluid. Mechanical induced formation damage combined with hydraulic damage tends to be the most significant. Several correlations have been developed relating pressure distribution and polymer concentration to distance along the fracture face and average polymer concentration variation with injection time. The gradient in yield stress distribution along the fracture face becomes steeper with increasing polymer concentration. The rate at which the yield stress (τ_o) is increasing is found to be proportional to the square of the volume of fluid lost to the formation. Finally, an improvement on previous results was achieved through simulating yield stress variation along the fracture face rather than assuming constant values because fluid loss to the formation and the polymer concentration distribution along the fracture face decreases as we move away from the injection well. The novelty of this three-phase flow model lies in its ability to (i) Simulate yield stress variation with fluid loss volume along the fracture face for different initial guar concentrations. (ii) Simulate increasing breaker activity on yield stress and broken gel viscosity and the effect of (i) and (ii) on cumulative gas production within reasonable computational time.

Keywords: formation damage, hydraulic fracturing, polymer cleanup, multiphase flow numerical simulation

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Authors: Mahesh M. Patil, K. A. Anu-Appaiah

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Overweight and obesity is a serious medical problem, increasing in prevalence, and affecting millions worldwide. Investigators have been trying from decades to articulate the burden of obesity and related risk factors. To answer this problem, we suggest a new therapeutic anti-obesity compounds from Garcinia xanthochymus fruit. However, there is little published scientific information on non-hydroxycitric acid Garcinia species. Our findings include biochemical characterization of the fruit; in vivo toxicity and bio-efficacy study of G. xanthochymus in high fat diet wistar rat model. We observed that Garcinia pericarp is a rich source of organic acids, polyphenols, mono- (40.63%) and poly-unsaturated fatty acids (16.45%; omega-3: 10.02%). Toxicological studies have showed that Garcinia is safe and had no observed adverse effect level up to 400 mg/kg/day. Body weight and food intake was significantly (P<0.05) reduced in oral gavage treated rats (sonicated Garcinia powder) in 13 weeks. Subcutaneous fat was significantly (P<0.05) reduced in Garcinia treated rats. Hepatocytes significantly (p<0.05) overexpressed sterol regulatory element binding protein 2, liver X receptor- α, liver X receptor- β, lipoprotein lipase and monoacylglycerol lipase. Fatty acid binding protein 1 and peroxisome proliferator activated receptor- α were down regulated as assessed by real time qPCR. Currently our research is focused on the adipocyte obesity related gene expressions, effect of Garcinia on 3T3-adipocyte cell lines and high fat diet induced mice model. This in vivo pre-clinical data suggests that G. xanthochymus may have clinical utility for the treatment of obesity. However, further studies are required to establish its potency.

Keywords: Garcinia xanthochymus, anti-obesity, high fat diet, real time qPCR

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Authors: Suheyla Demi̇rkol Orak

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The requirement of inclusive education is one of the utmost important results of both regular and irregular immigration. The matter in the case of Syrian immigrants is even worse than the other immigrants cases in world history since a massive immigration wave has affected all world countries' socio-economic profiles. When Syrians immigrated from Syria all over the world, they aimed to survive and left behind the war, but surviving is not optional occasion without handling language-related problems. Humans exist and preserve their existence with their language. That is a matter of concern for the integration of Syrians into the hosting countries. Many countries are proceeding with various programs to integrate Syrians into the majority groups by either assimilation or adaptation policies. Turkey has got the lion's share of the Syrian immigration apple, and in the same vein with this situation, its language education system should be analyzed severely in order to come up with a perfect match program for the integration of Syrians. It aimed to generate an inclusive education model for catalyzing the integration process of immigrant Syrian students into the majority socio-economic group via overcoming the language barrier. The identity of the immigrants is prioritized. The study follows a narrative literature review, which aims to review and critique relevant literature and offers a new conceptualization derived from the previous literature. The study derives a critical localized bilingual education model. As the outcome of the narrative literature review, a bilingual education model which prioritized the identity of the target community was designed. In the present study, main bilingual education programs and most of the countries' bilingual education policies were reviewed critically and suggestions were listed for the Syrian immigrants dominantly in Turkey and suggested to be benefitted by the other countries through localizing the practices.

Keywords: bi/multilingual education, sheltered education, immigrants, glocalization, submersion program, immersion program

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Authors: Hamdi Amroun, Yacine Benziani, Mehdi Ammi

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In this paper, we want to determine whether the accurate prediction of nicotine concentration can be obtained by using a network of smart objects and an e-cigarette. The approach consists of, first, the recognition of factors influencing smoking cessation such as physical activity recognition and participant’s behaviors (using both smartphone and smartwatch), then the prediction of the configuration of the e-cigarette (in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance of e-cigarette). The study uses a network of commonly connected objects; a smartwatch, a smartphone, and an e-cigarette transported by the participants during an uncontrolled experiment. The data obtained from sensors carried in the three devices were trained by a Long short-term memory algorithm (LSTM). Results show that our LSTM-based model allows predicting the configuration of the e-cigarette in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance with a root mean square error percentage of 12.9%, 9.15%, and 11.84%, respectively. This study can help to better control consumption of nicotine and offer an intelligent configuration of the e-cigarette to users.

Keywords: Iot, activity recognition, automatic classification, unconstrained environment

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Authors: Younes El Khchine

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A parametric study has been conducted to analyse the flow around S809 airfoil of a wind turbine in order to better understand the characteristics and effects of laminar separation bubble (LSB) on aerodynamic design for maximizing wind turbine efficiency. Numerical simulations were performed at low Reynolds numbers by solving the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations based on C-type structural mesh and using the γ-Reθt turbulence model. A two-dimensional study was conducted for the chord Reynolds number of 1×105 and angles of attack (AoA) between 0 and 20.15 degrees. The simulation results obtained for the aerodynamic coefficients at various angles of attack (AoA) were compared with XFoil results. A sensitivity study was performed to examine the effects of Reynolds number and free-stream turbulence intensity on the location and length of the laminar separation bubble and the aerodynamic performances of wind turbines. The results show that increasing the Reynolds number leads to a delay in the laminar separation on the upper surface of the airfoil. The increase in Reynolds number leads to an accelerated transition process, and the turbulent reattachment point moves closer to the leading edge owing to an earlier reattachment of the turbulent shear layer. This leads to a considerable reduction in the length of the separation bubble as the Reynolds number is increased. The increase in the level of free-stream turbulence intensity leads to a decrease in separation bubble length and an increase in the lift coefficient while having negligible effects on the stall angle. When the AoA increased, the bubble on the suction airfoil surface was found to move upstream to the leading edge of the airfoil, causing earlier laminar separation.

Keywords: laminar separation bubble, turbulence intensity, s809 airfoil, transition model, Reynolds number

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Authors: Jiaqi Zhang, Zhi Dong, Pan Xing

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With the continuous development of urban agglomerations, higher demands are placed on intercity public transport travel services. To improve these services, it is necessary to comprehensively understand the views and evaluations of travelers. Taking the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration in China as the object, this study explores subjective attitude indicators from self-administrated survey data and examines the relationship among perceived accessibility, preference, and satisfaction for intercity public transport using a structural equation model. The results show that perceived service quality has a direct positive impact on perceived accessibility and satisfaction. Perceived accessibility and preference significantly affect satisfaction. In addition, perceived accessibility mediates the effect of service quality on satisfaction. This study provides valuable insights from a policy perspective to improve the subjective evaluation of intercity public transport travelers while emphasizing the importance of subjective variables in transport system evaluation and advocates for their subdivision to more comprehensively improve the travel experience.

Keywords: intercity public transport, perceived accessibility, satisfaction, structural equation model

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Authors: Yulii D. Shikhmurzaev

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The modelling of the non-isothermal free-surface flows coupled with the solidification process has become the topic of intensive research with the advent of additive manufacturing, where complex 3-dimensional structures are produced by successive deposition and solidification of microscopic droplets of different materials. The issue is that both the spreading of liquids over solids and the propagation of the solidification front into the fluid and along the solid substrate pose fundamental difficulties for their mathematical modelling. The first of these processes, known as ‘dynamic wetting’, leads to the well-known ‘moving contact-line problem’ where, as shown recently both experimentally and theoretically, the contact angle formed by the free surfac with the solid substrate is not a function of the contact-line speed but is rather a functional of the flow field. The modelling of the propagating solidification front requires generalization of the classical Stefan problem, which would be able to describe the onset of the process and the non-equilibrium regime of solidification. Furthermore, given that both dynamic wetting and solification occur concurrently and interactively, they should be described within the same conceptual framework. The present work addresses this formidable problem and presents a mathematical model capable of describing the key element of additive manufacturing in a self-consistent and singularity-free way. The model is illustrated simple examples highlighting its main features. The main idea of the work is that both dynamic wetting and solidification, as well as some other fluid flows, are particular cases in a general class of flows where interfaces form and/or disappear. This conceptual framework allows one to derive a mathematical model from first principles using the methods of irreversible thermodynamics. Crucially, the interfaces are not considered as zero-mass entities introduced using Gibbsian ‘dividing surface’ but the 2-dimensional surface phases produced by the continuum limit in which the thickness of what physically is an interfacial layer vanishes, and its properties are characterized by ‘surface’ parameters (surface tension, surface density, etc). This approach allows for the mass exchange between the surface and bulk phases, which is the essence of the interface formation. As shown numerically, the onset of solidification is preceded by the pure interface formation stage, whilst the Stefan regime is the final stage where the temperature at the solidification front asymptotically approaches the solidification temperature. The developed model can also be applied to the flow with the substrate melting as well as a complex flow where both types of phase transition take place.

Keywords: dynamic wetting, interface formation, phase transition, solidification

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Authors: I. Derek Kaka’an, P. Smolianov, D. Koh Choon Lian, S. Dion, C. Schoen, J. Norberg

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This study was designed to examine mass participation and elite football performance in Nigeria with reference to advance international football management practices. Over 200 sources of literature on sport delivery systems were analyzed to construct a globally applicable model of elite football integrated with mass participation, comprising of the following three levels: macro- (socio-economic, cultural, legislative, and organizational), meso- (infrastructures, personnel, and services enabling sport programs) and micro-level (operations, processes, and methodologies for development of individual athletes). The model has received scholarly validation and showed to be a framework for program analysis that is not culturally bound. The Smolianov and Zakus model has been employed for further understanding of sport systems such as US soccer, US Rugby, swimming, tennis, and volleyball as well as Russian and Dutch swimming. A questionnaire was developed using the above-mentioned model. Survey questions were validated by 12 experts including academicians, executives from sport governing bodies, football coaches, and administrators. To identify best practices and determine areas for improvement of football in Nigeria, 120 coaches completed the questionnaire. Useful exemplars and possible improvements were further identified through semi-structured discussions with 10 Nigerian football administrators and experts. Finally, content analysis of Nigeria Football Federation’s website and organizational documentation was conducted. This paper focuses on the meso-level of Nigerian football delivery, particularly infrastructures, personnel, and services enabling sport programs. This includes training centers, competition systems, and intellectual services. Results identified remarkable achievements coupled with great potential to further develop football in different types of public and private organizations in Nigeria. These include: assimilating football competitions with other cultural and educational activities, providing favorable conditions for employees of all possible organizations to partake and help in managing football programs and events, providing football coaching integrated with counseling for prevention of antisocial conduct, and improving cooperation between football programs and organizations for peace-making and advancement of international relations, tourism, and socio-economic development. Accurate reporting of the sports programs from the media should be encouraged through staff training for better awareness of various events. The systematic integration of these meso-level practices into the balanced development of mass and high-performance football will contribute to international sport success as well as national health, education, and social harmony.

Keywords: football, high performance, mass participation, Nigeria, sport development

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Authors: Fu Lin

Abstract:

We consider the worst-case load-shedding problem in electric power networks where a number of transmission lines are to be taken out of service. The objective is to identify a prespecified number of line outages that lead to the maximum interruption of power generation and load at the transmission level, subject to the active power-flow model, the load and generation capacity of the buses, and the phase-angle limit across the transmission lines. For this nonlinear model with binary constraints, we show that all decision variables are separable except for the nonlinear power-flow equations. We develop an iterative decomposition algorithm, which converts the worst-case load shedding problem into a sequence of small subproblems. We show that the subproblems are either convex problems that can be solved efficiently or nonconvex problems that have closed-form solutions. Consequently, our approach is scalable for large networks. Furthermore, we prove the convergence of our algorithm to a critical point, and the objective value is guaranteed to decrease throughout the iterations. Numerical experiments with IEEE test cases demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed approach.

Keywords: load shedding, power system, proximal alternating linearization method, vulnerability analysis

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Authors: Seyed Hamid Mirmohammad Sadeghi, Raffaella Sesana, Daniela Maffiodo

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This study presents a procedure for friction calculation of column electric power steering (C-EPS) system which affects handling and comfort in driving. The friction losses estimation is obtained from experimental tests and mathematical calculation. Parts in C-EPS mainly involved in friction losses are bearings and worm gear. In the theoretical approach, the gear geometry and Hertz law were employed to measure the normal load and the sliding velocity and contact areas from the worm gears driving conditions. The viscous friction generated in the worm gear was obtained with a theoretical approach and the result was applied to model the friction in the steering system. Finally, by viscous friction coefficient and Coulomb friction coefficient, values of friction in worm gear were calculated. According to the Bearing Company and the characteristics of each bearing, the friction torques due to load and due to speed were calculated. A MATLAB Simulink model for calculating the friction in bearings and worm gear in C-EPS were done and the total friction value was estimated.

Keywords: friction, worm gear, column electric power steering system, simulink, bearing, EPS

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Authors: Akaash Tawade, Manan Khattar, Lucas Spangher, Costas J. Spanos

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Many grids are increasing the share of renewable energy in their generation mix, which is causing the energy generation to become less controllable. Buildings, which consume nearly 33% of all energy, are a key target for demand response: i.e., mechanisms for demand to meet supply. Understanding the behavior of office workers is a start towards developing demand response for one sector of building technology. The literature notes that dynamic computational modeling can be predictive of individual action, especially given that occupant behavior is traditionally abstracted from demand forecasting. Recent work founded on Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) has provided a promising conceptual basis for modeling behavior, personal states, and environment using control theoretic principles. Here, an adapted linear dynamical system of latent states and exogenous inputs is proposed to simulate energy demand amongst office workers engaged in a social energy shifting game. The energy shifting competition is implemented in an office in Singapore that is connected to a minigrid of buildings with a consistent 'price signal.' This signal is translated into a 'points signal' by a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to influence participant energy use. The dynamic model functions at the intersection of the points signals, baseline energy consumption trends, and SCT behavioral inputs to simulate future outcomes. This study endeavors to analyze how the dynamic model trains an RL agent and, subsequently, the degree of accuracy to which load deferability can be simulated. The results offer a generalizable behavioral model for energy competitions that provides the framework for further research on transfer learning for RL, and more broadly— transactive control.

Keywords: energy demand forecasting, social cognitive behavioral modeling, social game, transfer learning

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Authors: Salma Aboussalam, Karima Khalil, Khalid Elkalay

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In order to understand the structure, functioning, and current state of the Moroccan Mediterranean Sea ecosystem, an Ecopath mass balance model was applied. The model was based on 31 functional groups, which included 21 fish species, 7 invertebrates, 2 primary producers, and one detritus group. The trophic interactions between these groups were analyzed, and the system's average trophic transfer efficiency was found to be 23%. The total primary production and total respiration were calculated to be greater than 1, indicating that the system produces more energy than it respires. The ecosystem was found to have a high level of respiration and consumption flows, and indicators of stability and development showed low values for the Finn cycle index (13.97), system omnivory index (0.18), and average Finn path length (3.09), indicating that the ecosystem is disturbed and has a linear rather than web-like trophic structure. Keystone species were identified using the keystone index and mixed trophic impact analysis, with other demersal invertebrates, zooplankton, and cephalopods found to have a significant impact on other groups.

Keywords: ecopath, food web, trophic flux, moroccan mediterranean sea

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Authors: Azimollah Aleshzadeh, Enver Vural Yavuz

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The main goal of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps using different data-driven bivariate statistical approaches; namely, entropy weight method (EWM), evidence belief function (EBF), and information content model (ICM), at Uzundere county, Erzurum province, in the north-eastern part of Turkey. Past landslide occurrences were identified and mapped from an interpretation of high-resolution satellite images, and earlier reports as well as by carrying out field surveys. In total, 42 landslide incidence polygons were mapped using ArcGIS 10.4.1 software and randomly split into a construction dataset 70 % (30 landslide incidences) for building the EWM, EBF, and ICM models and the remaining 30 % (12 landslides incidences) were used for verification purposes. Twelve layers of landslide-predisposing parameters were prepared, including total surface radiation, maximum relief, soil groups, standard curvature, distance to stream/river sites, distance to the road network, surface roughness, land use pattern, engineering geological rock group, topographical elevation, the orientation of slope, and terrain slope gradient. The relationships between the landslide-predisposing parameters and the landslide inventory map were determined using different statistical models (EWM, EBF, and ICM). The model results were validated with landslide incidences, which were not used during the model construction. In addition, receiver operating characteristic curves were applied, and the area under the curve (AUC) was determined for the different susceptibility maps using the success (construction data) and prediction (verification data) rate curves. The results revealed that the AUC for success rates are 0.7055, 0.7221, and 0.7368, while the prediction rates are 0.6811, 0.6997, and 0.7105 for EWM, EBF, and ICM models, respectively. Consequently, landslide susceptibility maps were classified into five susceptibility classes, including very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Additionally, the portion of construction and verification landslides incidences in high and very high landslide susceptibility classes in each map was determined. The results showed that the EWM, EBF, and ICM models produced satisfactory accuracy. The obtained landslide susceptibility maps may be useful for future natural hazard mitigation studies and planning purposes for environmental protection.

Keywords: entropy weight method, evidence belief function, information content model, landslide susceptibility mapping

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Authors: Adetoun Adedotun Amubode

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Nigeria's Textile Industry was the second largest in Africa after Egypt, with above 250 vibrant factories and over 50 percent capacity utilization contributing to foreign exchange earnings and employment generation. Currently, multifaceted challenges such as epileptic power supply, inconsistent government policies, growing digitalization, smuggling of foreign textiles, insecurity and the inability of the local industries to compete with foreign products, especially Chinese textile, has created a hostile environment for the sector. This led to the closure of most of the textile industries. China's textile industry has experienced institutional change and industrial restructuring, having 30% of the world's market share. This paper examined the strategies adopted by China in transforming her textile and clothing industries and designed a model for the integration of these strategies to improve the competitive strength and growth of the Nigerian textile and clothing industries in a dynamic and changing market. The paper concludes that institutional support, regional production, export-oriented policy, value-added and branding cultivation, technological upgrading and enterprise resource planning be integrated into the Nigerian clothing and textile industries.

Keywords: clothing, industry, integration, Nigerian, textile, transformation.

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Authors: Mohammad R. Bhuyan, Mohammad J. Khattak

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Deterioration of flexible pavements due to crack reflection from its soil-cement base layer is a major concern around the globe. The service life of flexible pavement diminishes significantly because of the reflective cracks. Highway agencies are struggling for decades to prevent or mitigate these cracks in order to increase pavement service lives. The root cause of reflective cracks is the shrinkage crack which occurs in the soil-cement bases during the cement hydration process. The primary factor that causes the shrinkage is the cement content of the soil-cement mixture. With the increase of cement content, the soil-cement base gains strength and durability, which is necessary to withstand the traffic loads. But at the same time, higher cement content creates more shrinkage resulting in more reflective cracks in pavements. Historically, various states of USA have used the soil-cement bases for constructing flexile pavements. State of Louisiana (USA) had been using 8 to 10 percent of cement content to manufacture the soil-cement bases. Such traditional soil-cement bases yield 2.0 MPa (300 psi) 7-day compressive strength and are termed as cement stabilized design (CSD). As these CSD bases generate significant reflective cracks, another design of soil-cement base has been utilized by adding 4 to 6 percent of cement content called cement treated design (CTD), which yields 1.0 MPa (150 psi) 7-day compressive strength. The reduction of cement content in the CTD base is expected to minimize shrinkage cracks thus increasing pavement service lives. Hence, this research study evaluates the long-term field performance of CTD bases with respect to CSD bases used in flexible pavements. Pavement Management System of the state of Louisiana was utilized to select flexible pavement projects with CSD and CTD bases that had good historical record and time-series distress performance data. It should be noted that the state collects roughness and distress data for 1/10th mile section every 2-year period. In total, 120 CSD and CTD projects were analyzed in this research, where more than 145 miles (CTD) and 175 miles (CSD) of roadways data were accepted for performance evaluation and benefit-cost analyses. Here, the service life extension and area based on distress performance were considered as benefits. It was found that CTD bases increased 1 to 5 years of pavement service lives based on transverse cracking as compared to CSD bases. On the other hand, the service lives based on longitudinal and alligator cracking, rutting and roughness index remain the same. Hence, CTD bases provide some service life extension (2.6 years, on average) to the controlling distress; transverse cracking, but it was inexpensive due to its lesser cement content. Consequently, CTD bases become 20% more cost-effective than the traditional CSD bases, when both bases were compared by net benefit-cost ratio obtained from all distress types.

Keywords: cement treated base, cement stabilized base, reflective cracking , service life, flexible pavement

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Authors: Margaret S. Wright

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Background/Significance: During many recent public health emergencies/disasters, public health nursing data has been missing or delayed, potentially impacting the decision-making and response. Data used as evidence for decision-making in response, planning, and mitigation has been erratic and slow, decreasing the ability to respond. Methodology: Applying best practices in data management and data use in public health settings, and guided by the concepts outlined in ‘Disaster Standards of Care’ models leads to the development of recommendations for a model of best practices in data management and use in public health disasters/emergencies by public health nurses. As the ‘patient’ in public health disasters/emergencies is the community (local, regional or national), guidelines for patient documentation are incorporated in the recommendations. Findings: Using model public health nurses could better plan how to prepare for, respond to, and mitigate disasters in their communities, and better participate in decision-making in all three phases bringing public health nursing data to the discussion as part of the evidence base for decision-making.

Keywords: data management, decision making, disaster planning documentation, public health nursing

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Authors: Ebrahim Alamatian, Seyed Mehdi Afzalnia

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One of the most vital hydraulic structures is the dam. Regarding the unrecoverable damages which may occur after a dam break phenomenon, analyzing dams’ break is absolutely essential. GOLESTAN dam is located in the western South of Mashhad city in Iran. GOLESTAN dam break might lead to severe problems due to adjacent tourist and entertainment areas. In this paper, a numerical code based on the finite volume method was applied for assessing the risk of GOLESTAN dam break. As to this issue, first, a canal with a triangular barrier was modeled so as to verify the capability of the concerned code. Comparing analytical, experimental and numerical results showed that water level in the model results is in a good agreement with the similar water level in the analytical solutions and experimental data. The results of dam break modeling are revealed that two of the bridges, that are PARTOIE and NAMAYESHGAH, located downstream in the flow direction, are at risk following the potential GOLESTAN dam break. Therefore, the required times to conduct the precautionary measures at bridges were calculated at about 12 and 21 minutes, respectively. Thus, it is crucial to announce people about the possible risks of the dam break in order to decrease likely losses.

Keywords: numerical model, shallow water equations, GOLESTAN dam break, dry and wet beds modeling

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Authors: Syed Zameer, Mohamed Haneef

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Hip joint plays very important role in human beings as it takes up the whole body forces generated due to various activities. These loads are repetitive and fluctuating depending on the activities such as standing, sitting, jogging, stair casing, climbing, etc. which may lead to failure of Hip joint. Hip joint modification and replacement are common in old aged persons as well as younger persons. In this research study static and Fatigue analysis of Hip joint model was carried out using finite element software ANSYS. Stress distribution obtained from result of static analysis, material properties and S-N curve data of fabricated Ultra High molecular weight polyethylene / 50 wt% short E glass fibres + 40 wt% TiO2 Polymer matrix composites specimens were used to estimate fatigue life of Hip joint using stiffness Degradation model for polymer matrix composites. The stress distribution obtained from static analysis was found to be within the acceptable range.The factor of safety calculated from linear Palmgren linear damage rule is less than one, which indicates the component is safe under the design.

Keywords: hip joint, polymer matrix composite, static analysis, fatigue analysis, stress life approach

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Authors: Abdul-Majeed Imoro

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This paper investigates the interactive effect of domestic remittances and household enterprises on household well-being in Ghana. The study employs data drawn from the seventh wave of the Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS 7) comprising 14,009 households located in 1,000 enumeration areas for the 2016/2017 period. This study employs the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression technique in estimating the interactive effect of domestic remittances and household enterprises on household well-being. The Linear Probability Model (LPM) is used to estimate the impact of domestic remittances on household enterprises. A Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) model is employed to solve endogeneity issues between the dependent variable and the explanatory variable. This study reveals the following findings: domestic remittances improve household well-being significantly. Also, there is a significant negative impact of domestic remittances on household enterprises. This implies that households that receive domestic remittances are less likely to engage in household enterprises. Finally, the 2SLS results show a significant and positive impact of the interaction between domestic remittances and household enterprises on household well-being. This study provides empirical evidence of why policymakers need to encourage households that receive domestic remittances to diversify their income sources and invest in other income-generating activities such as household enterprises.

Keywords: domestic remittances, household enterprises, household well-being, Ghana

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Authors: Wajeeh Daher, Nimer Baya'a

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High Order Thinking Skills (HOTS) are suggested today as essential for the cognitive development of students and as preparing them for real life skills. Teachers are encouraged to use HOTS activities in the classroom to help their students develop higher order skills and deep thinking. So it is essential to prepare pre-service teachers to write and use HOTS activities for their students. This paper describes a model for integrating HOTS activities with GeoGebra in pre-service teachers’ preparation. This model describes four aspects of HOTS activities and working with them: Activity components, preparation procedure, strategies and processes used in writing a HOTS activity and types of the HOTS activities. In addition, the paper describes the pre-service teachers' difficulties in preparing and working with HOTS activities, as well as their perceptions regarding the use of these activities and GeoGebra in the mathematics classroom. The paper also describes the contribution of a HOTS activity to pupils' learning of mathematics, where this HOTS activity was prepared and taught by one pre-service teacher.

Keywords: high order thinking skills, HOTS activities, pre-service teachers, professional development

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Z. Ansari, M. R. M. Rejab, D. Bachtiar, J. P. Siregar

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This study focus on the compression and tensile properties of new and recycle square honeycombs structure from sugar palm fibre (SPF) and polylactic acid (PLA) composite. The end data will determine the failure strength and energy absorption for both new and recycle composite. The control SPF specimens were fabricated from short fibre co-mingled with PLA by using a bra-blender set at 180°C and 50 rpm consecutively. The mixture of 30% fibre and 70% PLA were later on the hot press at 180°C into sheets with thickness 3mm consecutively before being assembled into a sandwich honeycomb structure. An INSTRON tensile machine and Abaqus 6.13 software were used for mechanical test and finite element simulation. The percentage of error from the simulation and experiment data was 9.20% and 9.17% for both new and recycled product. The small error of percentages was acceptable due to the nature of the simulation model to be assumed as a perfect model with no imperfect geometries. The energy absorption value from new to recycled product decrease from 312.86kJ to 282.10kJ. With this small decrements, it is still possible to implement a recycle SPF/PLA composite into everyday usages such as a car's interior or a small size furniture.

Keywords: failure modes, numerical modelling, polylactic acid, sugar palm fibres

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Authors: Hosna Pourhashemi

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Chahar Bagh, the symbol of the world, displayed around the pool of life in the centre, attempts to emulate Eden. It represents a duality concept based on the division of the universe into two perceptional insights, a celestial and an earthly one. Chahar Bagh garden pattern refers to the Garden of Eden, that was watered and framed by main four rivers. This microcosm is combined with a mystical love of flowers, sweet-scented trees, the variety of colors, and the sense of eternal life. This symbol of the integration of spontaneous expressivity of the natural elements and reasoning awareness of man strives for the ideal of divine perfection. Through collecting and analyzing the data, the prevalence and continuous influence of Chahar Bagh concept on selected historical gardens was elaborated and evaluated. After the conquest of Persia by the Arabs in the 7th century, Chahar Bagh was adopted and spread throughout the Islamic expansion, from the Middle East, westward across northern Africa to Morocco and the Iberian Peninsula, and eastward through Iran to Central Asia and India. Furthermore, its continuity to the mid of 16th century Renaissance period is shown. By adapting the semiotic theory of Peirce and Saussure on the Persian garden, Chahar Bagh was defined as the basic pattern language for the garden culture. The hypothesis of the continuous influence of Chahar Bagh pattern language on today’s landscape architecture was examined on selected works of Dieter Kienast, as the important and relevant protagonist of his time (end of twentieth ct.) and up to our time. Chahar Bagh pattern language offers collective cultural sensitive healing wisdom transmitted down through the millennia. Through my reflections in Dieter Kienast’s works, I transformed my personal experience into a transpersonal understanding regarding the Sufi philosophy and the Jung psychology, which brings me to define new design theories and methods to form a spiritual, as I call it” Quaternary Perception Model” for landscape architecture. Based on a cognition process through self-journeying in this holistic model, human consciousness can be developed to access to “higher” levels of being and embrace the unity. The self-purification and mindfulness through transpersonal confrontation in the ”Quaternary Perception Model” generates a form of heart-based treatment. I adapted the seven spiritual levels of Sufi self-development on the perception of landscape, representing the stages of the self, ranging from absolutely self-centered to pure spiritual humanity. I redefine and reread the elements and features of Chahar Bagh pattern language for today’s landscape architecture. The “lost paradise” lies in our heart and can be perceived by all humans in landscapes and cities designed in the spirit of” Quaternary Model”.

Keywords: persian garden, pattern language of Chahar Bagh, wholistic Perception, dieter kienast, “quaternary model”

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Authors: Geraldine G. Granados Vazquez

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Every human being is exposed to the risk of dying; wherein some of them are more susceptible than others depending on the cause. Therefore, the cause could be the hazard to die that a group or individual has, making this irreversible damage the condition of vulnerability. Risk is a dynamic concept; which means that it depends on the environmental, social, economic and political conditions. Thus vulnerability may only be evaluated in terms of relative parameters. This research is focusing specifically on building a model that evaluate the risk or propensity of death in past urban societies in connection with the everyday life of individuals, considering that death can be a consequence of two coexisting issues: hazard and the deterioration of the resistance to destruction. One of the most important discussions in bioarchaeology refers to health and life conditions in ancient groups; the researchers are looking for more flexible models that evaluate these topics. In that way, this research proposes a theoretical-methodological model that assess the vulnerability of death in past urban groups. This model pretends to be useful to evaluate the risk of death, considering their sociohistorical context, and their intrinsic biological features. This theoretical and methodological model, propose four areas to assess vulnerability. The first three areas use statistical methods or quantitative analysis. While the last and fourth area, which corresponds to the embodiment, is based on qualitative analysis. The four areas and their techniques proposed are a) Demographic dynamics. From the distribution of age at the time of death, the analysis of mortality will be performed using life tables. From here, four aspects may be inferred: population structure, fertility, mortality-survival, and productivity-migration, b) Frailty. Selective mortality and heterogeneity in frailty can be assessed through the relationship between characteristics and the age at death. There are two indicators used in contemporary populations to evaluate stress: height and linear enamel hypoplasias. Height estimates may account for the individual’s nutrition and health history in specific groups; while enamel hypoplasias are an account of the individual’s first years of life, c) Inequality. Space reflects various sectors of society, also in ancient cities. In general terms, the spatial analysis uses measures of association to show the relationship between frail variables and space, d) Embodiment. The story of everyone leaves some evidence on the body, even in the bones. That led us to think about the dynamic individual's relations in terms of time and space; consequently, the micro analysis of persons will assess vulnerability from the everyday life, where the symbolic meaning also plays a major role. In sum, using some Mesoamerica examples, as study cases, this research demonstrates that not only the intrinsic characteristics related to the age and sex of individuals are conducive to vulnerability, but also the social and historical context that determines their state of frailty before death. An attenuating factor for past groups is that some basic aspects –such as the role they played in everyday life– escape our comprehension, and are still under discussion.

Keywords: bioarchaeology, frailty, Mesoamerica, vulnerability

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Authors: Sivanandan Balakrishnan, Sara Moridpour, Richard Tay

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Heavy vehicles make a significant contribution to many developed economies, including Australia, because they are a major means of transporting goods within these countries. With the increase in road freight, there will be an increase in the heavy vehicle traffic proportion, and consequently, an increase in the possibility of collisions involving heavy vehicles. Crashes involving heavy vehicles are a major road safety concern because of the higher likelihood of fatal and serious injury, especially to any small vehicle occupant involved. The primary objective of this research is to identify the factors influencing injury severity to occupants in vehicle collisions involving heavy vehicle at T- intersection using a binary logit model in Victoria, Australia. Our results show that the factors influencing injury severity include occupants' gender, age and restraint use. Also, vehicles' type, movement, point-of-impact and damage, time-of-day, day-of-week and season, higher percentage of trucks in traffic volume, hit pedestrians, number of occupants involved and type of collisions are associated with severe injury.

Keywords: binary logit model, heavy vehicle, injury severity, T-intersections

Procedia PDF Downloads 395