Search results for: peak demand

Authors: T. Yuri M. Zagloel, Inaki M. Hakim, Syarafi A. M.

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Manufacturing process has been considered as one of the most important activity in business process. It correlates with productivity and quality of the product so industries could fulfill customer’s demand. With the increasing demand from customer, industries must improve their manufacturing ability such as shorten lead time and reduce wastes on their process. Lean manufacturing has been considered as one of the tools to waste elimination in manufacturing or service industri. Workforce development is one practice in lean manufacturing that can reduce waste generated from operator such as waste of unnecessary motion. Anthropometric approach is proposed to determine the recommended measurement in operator’s work area. The method will get some dimensions from Indonesia people that related to piston workstation. The result from this research can be obtained new design for the workarea considering ergonomic aspect.

Keywords: adjustable, anthropometric, ergonomic, waste

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Authors: Abdollah Kavousi Fard

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This paper addresses the optimal scheduling of hybrid reconfigurable microgrids considering hybrid electric vehicle charging demands. A stochastic framework based on unscented transform to model the high uncertainties of renewable energy sources including wind turbine and photovoltaic panels, as well as the hybrid electric vehicles’ charging demand. In order to get to the optimal scheduling, the network reconfiguration is employed as an effective tool for changing the power supply path and avoiding possible congestions. The simulation results are analyzed and discussed in three different scenarios including coordinated, uncoordinated and smart charging demand of hybrid electric vehicles. A typical grid-connected microgrid is employed to show the satisfying performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: microgrid, renewable energy sources, reconfiguration, optimization

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Forensic DNA analysis has received much attention over the last three decades, due to its incredible usefulness in human identification. The statistical interpretation of DNA evidence is recognised as one of the most mature fields in forensic science. Peak heights in an Electropherogram (EPG) are approximately proportional to the amount of template DNA in the original sample being tested. A stutter is a minor peak in an EPG, which is not masking as an allele of a potential contributor, and considered as an artefact that is presumed to be arisen due to miscopying or slippage during the PCR. Stutter peaks are mostly analysed in terms of stutter ratio that is calculated relative to the corresponding parent allele height. Analysis of mixture profiles has always been problematic in evidence interpretation, especially with the presence of PCR artefacts like stutters. Unlike binary and semi-continuous models; continuous models assign a probability (as a continuous weight) for each possible genotype combination, and significantly enhances the use of continuous peak height information resulting in more efficient reliable interpretations. Therefore, the presence of a sound methodology to distinguish between stutters and real alleles is essential for the accuracy of the interpretation. Sensibly, any such method has to be able to focus on modelling stutter peaks. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide increased flexibility in applied statistical modelling. Mixture models are frequently employed as fundamental data analysis tools in clustering and classification of data and assume unidentified heterogeneous sources for data. In model-based clustering, each unknown source is reflected by a cluster, and the clusters are modelled using parametric models. Specifying the number of components in finite mixture models, however, is practically difficult even though the calculations are relatively simple. Infinite mixture models, in contrast, do not require the user to specify the number of components. Instead, a Dirichlet process, which is an infinite-dimensional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution, is used to deal with the problem of a number of components. Chinese restaurant process (CRP), Stick-breaking process and Pólya urn scheme are frequently used as Dirichlet priors in Bayesian mixture models. In this study, we illustrate an infinite mixture of simple linear regression models for modelling stutter ratio and introduce some modifications to overcome weaknesses associated with CRP.

Keywords: Chinese restaurant process, Dirichlet prior, infinite mixture model, PCR stutter

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Authors: Zunnu Raen Akhtar, Haseeb Jan, Muhammad Latif, Ali Aziz, Ali Akash, Waleed Afzal Naveed, Muhammad Naveed Akhtar

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Wheat (Triticum aestivium) is main staple food crop of Pakistan. This crop is highly infested with aphids which cause the loss of yield. A study was carried out at Entomological Research Institute of Ayub Agriculture Research Institute Faisalabad during 2015-16. Eleven wheat genotypes (FSD- 08, v-11098, NIBGE gandum-3, shafaq 2006, v-13372, Punjab-2011, v-12304, 11C023, v-13005, v-13016, v-12120) were sown using the Randomized Complete Block Design in the research area of Entomological Research Institute Faisalabad during the year 2015-16. The aphid infestation per tiller on each genotype was observed from the first week of January till the third week of March maximum. The results reveal that shafaq 2006 and V-12120 were found more susceptible with 10.22 and 9.90 aphids per tiller and minimum infestation was observed on the Punjab-2011 and 11C023 i.e., 5.72 and 5.99 aphid per tiller respectively. When the peak season observations were analyzed, slight changes occur in the peak population of aphid among all wheat genotypes. The most susceptible genotypes were Shafaq 2006 and V-12304 with 18.63 and 18.23 aphids per tiller while the wheat genotypes 11C023 and Punjab 2011 received minimum aphid population which was 9.99 and 10.47 aphids per tiller and they considered more tolerant.

Keywords: Triticum aestivium, Schizaphis graminum, population, resistance

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Authors: Dalia Almaghaslah, A. Alsayari, R. Asiri, N. Albugami

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the pharmacy workforce in Saudi Arabia in terms of supply, geographical distribution, nationality and gender distribution, as well as to assess the employment rate. A retrospective cross-sectional approach was used to address these objectives. Relevant data was identified and retrieved from the latest version of the Health Statistical Yearbook— Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2016; Saudi Commission for Health Specialties publications, 2018; and national pharmacy organisation websites. In general, the exponential increase in the number of pharmacy schools has helped to produce more pharmacists in the rural areas of the country, but inequitable distribution of the workforce still exists. The reliance on non-indigenous pharmacists, especially in the private sector, is substantial. Male pharmacists outnumber females, mainly due to the cultural and social factors that limit the participation of women in community pharmacy, which is the largest employment sector. The employment rate shows limited opportunities for Saudi pharmacists at the Ministry of Health (MOH) as they have already Saudised almost all pharmacy positions at the MOH healthcare facilities. However, the private sector needs to assume responsibility for their share of the re-nationalisation of the profession in order to provide jobs for local pharmacists. Regular, more detailed profiling of the pharmacy workforce is an essential step to achieving effective pharmacy workforce planning. Currently, a large gap exists in our knowledge of the workforce in the country, especially regarding their supply and demand and employment prospects.

Keywords: employment prospects, pharmacy workforce, Saudi Arabia, supply and demand

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Authors: Sheikh Saeed Ahmad

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Electricity is vital for any state’s development that needs policy for planning the power network extension. This study is about simulation modeling for electricity in Balochistan province. Baseline data of electricity consumption was used of year 2004 and projected with the help of LEAP model up to subsequent 30 years. Three scenarios were created to run software. One scenario was baseline and other two were alternative or green scenarios i.e. solar and wind energy scenarios. Present study revealed that Balochistan has much greater potential for solar and wind energy for electricity production. By adopting these alternative energy forms, Balochistan can save energy in future nearly 23 and 48% by incorporating solar and wind power respectively. Thus, the study suggests to government planners, an aspect of integrating renewable sources in power system for ensuring sustainable development and growth.

Keywords: demand and supply, LEAP, solar energy, wind energy, households

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Authors: Yuan Zhao, Phimsupha Kokchang

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As a responsible nation, China has outlined its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of reaching peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Peak and carbon neutrality are tough goals to achieve, and China must undertake a shift to green energy. In contrast, China's existing energy consumption structure is unsustainable and heavily dependent on coal supplies. China must revise its energy mix planning in order to strengthen energy security and satisfy the requirement for low-carbon energy generation to mitigate climate change. Shanxi Province is one of China's most important coal-producing regions, and Linfen is one of the province's key economic towns. However, Shanxi Province's economic development is severely hampered by the region's high levels of pollution and energy consumption. The purpose of this study is to investigate Linfen citizens' perceptions and attitudes toward China's NDC's energy restructuring plan through questionnaires. The majority of respondents were aware of China's NDCs, as indicated by 402 valid responses to an online questionnaire. Furthermore, respondents' perceptions and attitudes toward renewable energy initiatives are growing. To ensure that the results were dependable and consistent, reliability and validity were examined. According to the findings, the majority of Linfen's citizens believe that renewable energy projects such as solar and wind, which are consistent with China's NDCs, may improve their quality of life, public health, and the nation's economy.

Keywords: China’s NDC, perceptions, attitudes, Linfen, energy restructuring

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Authors: Mohammed Al Awadh

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In order for businesses to take advantage of the opportunities for expanded production and trade that have arisen as a result of globalization and increased levels of competition, productivity growth is required. The number of available sources is decreasing with each passing day, which results in an ever-increasing demand. In response to this, there will be an increased demand placed on firms to improve the efficiency with which they utilise their resources. As a scientific method, work and time research techniques have been employed in all manufacturing and service industries to raise the efficiency of use of the factors of production. These approaches focus on work and time. The goal of this research is to improve the productivity of a manufacturing industry's production system by looking at ways to measure work. The work cycles were broken down into more manageable and quantifiable components. On the observation sheet, these aspects were noted down. The operation has been properly analysed in order to identify value-added and non-value-added components, and observations have been recorded for each of the different trails.

Keywords: time study, work measurement, work study, efficiency

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Authors: Luis N. Pereira, Marco P. Carrasco

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Dynamic pricing is a revenue management strategy in which hotel suppliers define, over time, flexible and different prices for their services for different potential customers, considering the profile of e-consumers and the demand and market supply. This means that the fundamentals of dynamic pricing are based on economic theory (price elasticity of demand) and market segmentation. This study aims to define a dynamic pricing strategy and a contextualized offer to the e-consumers profile in order to improve the number of reservations of an online distribution channel. Segmentation methods (hierarchical and non-hierarchical) were used to identify and validate an optimal number of market segments. A profile of the market segments was studied, considering the characteristics of the e-consumers and the probability of reservation a room. In addition, the price elasticity of demand was estimated for each segment using econometric models. Finally, predictive models were used to define rules for classifying new e-consumers into pre-defined segments. The empirical study illustrates how it is possible to improve the intelligence of an online distribution channel system through an optimal dynamic pricing strategy and a contextualized offer to the profile of each new e-consumer. A database of 11 million e-consumers of an online distribution channel was used in this study. The results suggest that an appropriate policy of market segmentation in using of online reservation systems is benefit for the service suppliers because it brings high probability of reservation and generates more profit than fixed pricing.

Keywords: dynamic pricing, e-consumers segmentation, online reservation systems, predictive analytics

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Authors: Abubakar Uba Ibrahim, Ibrahim Haruna Shanono

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Smart metering and demand response are gaining ground in industrial and residential applications. Smart Appliances have been given concern towards achieving Smart home. The success of Smart grid development relies on the successful implementation of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in power sector. Smart Appliances have been the technology under development and many new contributions to its realization have been reported in the last few years. The role of ICT here is to capture data in real time, thereby allowing bi-directional flow of information/data between producing and utilization point; that lead a way for the attainment of Smart appliances where home appliances can communicate between themselves and provide a self-control (switch on and off) using the signal (information) obtained from the grid. This paper depicts the background on ICT for smart appliances paying a particular attention to the current technology and identifying the future ICT trends for load monitoring through which smart appliances can be achieved to facilitate an efficient smart home system which promote demand response program. This paper grouped and reviewed the recent contributions, in order to establish the current state of the art and trends of the technology, so that the reader can be provided with a comprehensive and insightful review of where ICT for smart appliances stands and is heading to. The paper also presents a brief overview of communication types, and then narrowed the discussion to the load monitoring (Non-intrusive Appliances Load Monitoring ‘NALM’). Finally, some future trends and challenges in the further development of the ICT framework are discussed to motivate future contributions that address open problems and explore new possibilities.

Keywords: communication technology between appliances, demand response, load monitoring, smart appliances, smart grid

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Authors: A. S. Zgalei, B. T. Al-Mabrouk

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With a particularly significant growth rate observed in the Libyan commercial and residential buildings coupled with a growth in energy demand, solar desiccant evaporative cooling offers energy savings and promises a good sharing for sustainable buildings where the availability of solar radiation matches with the cooling load demand. The paper presents a short introduction for the desiccant systems. A mathematical model of a selected system has been developed and a simulation has been performed in order to investigate the system performance at different working conditions and an optimum design of the system structure is established. The results showed a technical feasibility of the system working under the Libyan climatic conditions with a reasonable COP at temperatures that can be obtained through the solar reactivation system. Discussion of the results and the recommendations for future work are proposed.

Keywords: computer program, solar desiccant wheel cooling, system modelling, simulation, technical feasibility

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Authors: Samira Mohabbatdar, Abbas Ahmadi, Mohsen S. Sajadieh

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This paper deals with a two-level supply chain consisted of one manufacturer and one retailer for single-type product. The demand function of the customers depends on price. We consider an integrated production inventory system where the manufacturer processes raw materials in order to deliver finished product with imperfect quality to the retailer. Then retailer inspects the products and after that delivers perfect products to customers. The proposed model is based on the joint total profit of both the manufacturer and the retailer, and it determines the optimal ordering lot-size, number of shipment and selling price of the retailer. A numerical example is provided to analyse and illustrate the behaviour and application of the model. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the key parameters are presented to test feasibility of the model.

Keywords: supply chain, pricing policy, defective quality, joint economic lot sizing

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Authors: Collen Tebogo Masilo, Erik Schmikl

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The demand for the DataMiner product by customers has presented a great challenge for the vendor in Skyline Communications in deploying its limited resources in the form of human resources, financial resources, and office space, to achieve high organisational performance in all its international operations. The rapid growth of the organisation has been unable to efficiently support its existing customers across the globe, and provide services to new customers, due to the limited number of approximately one hundred employees in its employ. The combined descriptive and explanatory case study research methods were selected as research design, making use of a survey questionnaire which was distributed to a sample of 100 respondents. A sample return of 89 respondents was achieved. The sampling method employed was non-probability sampling, using the convenient sampling method. Frequency analysis and correlation between the subscales (the four themes) were used for statistical analysis to interpret the data. The investigation was conducted into mechanisms that can be deployed to balance the high demand for products and the limited production capacity of the company’s Belgian operations across four aspects: demand management strategies, capacity management strategies, communication methods that can be used to align a sales management department, and reward systems in use to improve employee performance. The conclusions derived from the theme ‘demand management strategies’ are that the company is fully aware of the future market demand for its products. However, there seems to be no evidence that there is proper demand forecasting conducted within the organisation. The conclusions derived from the theme 'capacity management strategies' are that employees always have a lot of work to complete during office hours, and, also, employees seem to need help from colleagues with urgent tasks. This indicates that employees often work on unplanned tasks and multiple projects. Conclusions derived from the theme 'communication methods used to align sales management department with operations' are that communication is not good throughout the organisation. This means that information often stays with management, and does not reach non-management employees. This also means that there is a lack of smooth synergy as expected and a lack of good communication between the sales department and the projects office. This has a direct impact on the delivery of projects to customers by the operations department. The conclusions derived from the theme ‘employee reward systems’ are that employees are motivated, and feel that they add value in their current functions. There are currently no measures in place to identify unhappy employees, and there are also no proper reward systems in place which are linked to a performance management system. The research has made a contribution to the body of research by exploring the impact of the four sub-variables and their interaction on the challenges of organisational productivity, in particular where an organisation experiences a capacity problem during its growth stage during tough economic conditions. Recommendations were made which, if implemented by management, could further enhance the organisation’s sustained competitive operations.

Keywords: high demand for products, high organisational performance, limited production capacity, limited resources

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Authors: B. Philip, J. Littlewood, R. Radford, N. Evans, T. Whyman, D. P. Jones

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UK buildings and energy infrastructures are heavily dependent on natural gas, a large proportion of which is used for domestic space heating. However, approximately half of the gas consumed in the UK is imported. Improving energy security and reducing carbon emissions are major government drivers for reducing gas dependency. In order to do so there needs to be a wholesale shift in the energy provision to householders without impacting on thermal comfort levels, convenience or cost of supply to the end user. Heat pumps are seen as a potential alternative in modern well insulated homes, however, can the same be said of older homes? A large proportion of housing stock in Britain was built prior to 1919. The age of the buildings bears testimony to the quality of construction; however, their thermal performance falls far below the minimum currently set by UK building standards. In recent years significant sums of money have been invested to improve energy efficiency and combat fuel poverty in some of the most deprived areas of Wales. Increasing energy efficiency of older properties remains a significant challenge, which cannot be achieved through insulation and air-tightness interventions alone, particularly when alterations to historically important architectural features of the building are not permitted. This paper investigates the energy demand of pre-1919 dwellings in a former Welsh mining village, the feasibility of meeting that demand using water from the disused mine workings to supply a district heat network and potential barriers to success of the scheme. The use of renewable solar energy generation and storage technologies, both thermal and electrical, to reduce the load and offset increased electricity demand, are considered. A wholistic surveying approach to provide a more accurate assessment of total household heat demand is proposed. Several surveying techniques, including condition surveys, air permeability, heat loss calculations, and thermography were employed to provide a clear picture of energy demand. Additional insulation can bring unforeseen consequences which are detrimental to the fabric of the building, potentially leading to accelerated dilapidation of the asset being ‘protected’. Increasing ventilation should be considered in parallel, to compensate for the associated reduction in uncontrolled infiltration. The effectiveness of thermal performance improvements are demonstrated and the detrimental effects of incorrect material choice and poor installation are highlighted. The findings show estimated heat demand to be in close correlation to household energy bills. Major areas of heat loss were identified such that improvements to building thermal performance could be targeted. The findings demonstrate that the use of heat pumps in older buildings is viable, provided sufficient improvement to thermal performance is possible. Addition of passive solar thermal and photovoltaic generation can help reduce the load and running cost for the householder. The results were used to predict future heat demand following energy efficiency improvements, thereby informing the size of heat pumps required.

Keywords: heat demand, heat pump, renewable energy, retrofit

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Authors: Sameh S. Namnqani, Yaqoob Y. Abobakar, Ahmed M. Alsewehri, Khaled M. AlQethami

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The main objective of this research is to know the impact of the application of the electronic supply system on the performance of the supply department of health organizations. To reach this goal, the study adopted independent variables to measure the dependent variable (performance of the supply department), namely: integration with suppliers, integration with intermediaries and distributors and knowledge of supply size, inventory, and demand. The study used the descriptive method and was aided by the questionnaire tool that was distributed to a sample of workers in the Supply Chain Management Department of King Abdullah Medical City. After the statistical analysis, the results showed that: The 70 sample members strongly agree with the (electronic integration with suppliers) axis with a p-value of 0.001, especially with regard to the following: Opening formal and informal communication channels between management and suppliers (Mean 4.59) and exchanging information with suppliers with transparency and clarity (Mean 4.50). It also clarified that the sample members agree on the axis of (electronic integration with brokers and distributors) with a p-value of 0.001 and this is represented in the following elements: Exchange of information between management, brokers and distributors with transparency, clarity (Mean 4.18) , and finding a close cooperation relationship between management, brokers and distributors (Mean 4.13). The results also indicated that the respondents agreed to some extent on the axis (knowledge of the size of supply, stock, and demand) with a p-value of 0.001. It also indicated that the respondents strongly agree with the existence of a relationship between electronic procurement and (the performance of the procurement department in health organizations) with a p-value of 0.001, which is represented in the following: transparency and clarity in dealing with suppliers and intermediaries to prevent fraud and manipulation (Mean 4.50) and reduce the costs of supplying the needs of the health organization (Mean 4.50). From the results, the study recommended several recommendations, the most important of which are: that health organizations work to increase the level of information sharing between them and suppliers in order to achieve the implementation of electronic procurement in the supply management of health organizations. Attention to using electronic data interchange methods and using modern programs that make supply management able to exchange information with brokers and distributors to find out the volume of supply, inventory, and demand. To know the volume of supply, inventory, and demand, it recommended the application of scientific methods of supply for storage. Take advantage of information technology, for example, electronic data exchange techniques and documents, where it can help in contact with suppliers, brokers, and distributors, and know the volume of supply, inventory, and demand, which contributes to improving the performance of the supply department in health organizations.

Keywords: healthcare supply chain, performance, electronic system, ERP

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Authors: Andrea Vasquez, Pedro Maldonado-Alvarado

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In general, 'gluten-free' foods like breadmaking products provide functional or nutraceutical benefits for the consumer's health and increased their demand on the market. In Ecuador, there is an overproduction of superfoods, and the food by-products are undervalued. For the first time, to the author's best knowledge, gluten-free bread mixtures from quinoa and banana flour, cassava starch, lupine flour (LF), or whey protein (WP) with hydroxypropylmethylcellulose (HPMC) and transglutaminase (TG) were evaluated on their functional and sensory properties. Free amino groups and thiols, rheology, and electrophoresis SDS PAGE were performed to analyze the crosslinking of TG at different concentrations with HC or PL proteins. Dough characterization, pasting properties were evaluated, respectively, by a MIXOLAB and a rheometer with a pasting cell. The texture, porosity, and loaf volume were characterized using a texturometer, ImageJ software, and breadmaking ability, respectively. Finally, a breadmaking aptitude and sensorial bread acceptability were performed. A significant decrease in the content of free amino groups (0.16 to 0.11 and 0.46 to 0.36 mM/mg of protein) and free thiol groups (0.37 to 0.21 and 1.79 to 1.32 mM/mg protein) was observed when 1.0% and 0.5% TG were added to LF and WP, respectively. In apparent viscosity analysis, the action of TG on HC proteins changes their viscosity, while the viscosity of LF is not modified by TG. Results of electrophoresis in PL showed bands of higher molecular weight of different fragments of proteins with 1% TG. Formulation with 59.8, 39.9, 160.8, 6.0, 1.0, and 1.5% of, respectively, QF, BF, CS, LF or WP, TG, and HPMC had the best properties in dough parameters, pasting parameters (lower pasting temperature and higher peak viscosity), best crumb structure, lower crumb hardness and higher loaf volume (2.24 and 2.28 mL/g). All the loaves of bread were acceptable in baking aptitude and general acceptability.

Keywords: breadmaking, gluten-free, superfoods, by-products, Ecuador

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Authors: Chioma Nwakanma, Onyeka Okoh Irene, Emmanuel Eze

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Pesticide residues left in agricultural soils after cropping are always accumulative, difficult to degrade and harmful to animals, plants, soil and human health in general. The biodegrading potential of pesticides- resistant PGPB on soil pollution was investigated using in situ remediation technique following recommended standards. In addition, screening for insecticide utilization, maximum insecticide concentration tolerance, insecticide biodegradation and insecticide residues analyses via gas chromatographic/electron column detector were determined. The location of bacterial degradation genes was also determined. Three plant growth-promoting rhizophere (PGPR) were isolated and identified according to 16S rRNA as Paraburkholderia tropica, Burkolderia glumae and Achromobacter insolitus. From the results, all the three isolates showed phosphate solubilizing traits and were able to grow on nitrogen free medium. The isolates were able to utilize the insecticide as sole carbon source and increase in biomass. They were statistically significantly tolerant to all the insecticide concentrations screened. The gas chromatographic profiles of the insecticide residues showed a reduction in the peak areas of the insecticides, indicating degradation. The bacterial consortium had the lowest peak areas, showing the highest degradation efficiency. The genes responsible for degradation were found to be in the plasmids of the isolates. Therefore, the use of PGPR is recommended for bioremediation of agricultural soil insecticide polluted areas and can also enhance soil fertility.

Keywords: biodegradation, rhizosphere, insecticides utilization, agricultural soil

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Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: Fazal Said, Mian Inayatullah

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Various insect visitors in common and honeybees in particular are considered to be accountable for 80-85% of pollination services for numerous crops worldwide. Pollinators not only increase crop yield but also improve quality of produce as well. The present investigation is therefore, an endeavor to assess the visitation pattern of honeybees, Apis florea (Hymenopterae: Apidae) in sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.). The current research trial was carried out at New Developmental Farm (NDF), The University of Agriculture Peshawar, (34.01° N, 71.53° E) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Pakistan during 2012 and 2013. Different observations on the foraging behavior of A. florea’s individuals were made from 0800 hr in the morning and continued until 1800 hr in the evening. Hence, total duration of foraging activity of A. florea individuals was comprised of 10 hours. It was found that two peaks of visitation/foraging occurred between 1400 to 1600 hr of the day. First peak of foraging was recorded at 1600hr, where 15 individuals of honeybees/3 m2 were counted to be engaged in foraging sunflower blooms. Second peak visitation was recorded with a total of 12 bees/3 m2 at 1400 hrs of the day. Visitations of A. florea were observed to its minimum intensity of only 07 individuals during late hours of the day as evening approached after 1800 hrs. Similarly, due to more number of pollens and nectars on flowers, high frequency of A. florea were found engaged in foraging during 20th and 25th day after initiation of blooms on sunflower. Minimum numbers of honeybees were recorded during initial and very last days of flowering due to less number of plants with blooms and less availability of pollen and nectar on flowers.

Keywords: apis florea, days after flowering, daily hours, sunflower, visitation pattern

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Authors: Swadhin Mondal

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While safe drinking water is an effective defense against the infection of water borne diseases, a large number of populations suffering from these diseases do not have access to safe drinking water due inadequacy of supply. Private entrepreneurs entered this sector and made bottled drinking water available by supplying various kinds of bottled water. In this study we found that the bottled drinking water industry has experienced a spectacular growth over the past two decades and it has a huge growth potential because of rising demand for safe drinking. High profit margin (217 %) is the main attraction to the entrepreneur to invest in this industry. Health awareness, lack of safe drinking water facilities, rising income, urbanization, migration and rising trend in tourism industries are the major influencing factors of demand for bottled drinking water (BDW). This industry also partially fulfills the demand for drinking water. More than 2 percent of household’s demands were met by this industry and many more households (additional 4 percent) coping with BDW during water crisis. Poor households spend around 4 percent of their total monthly household’s consumption expenditure on BDW which may have an adverse impact on household because households could have spent this for purchasing other goods. Like other developed counties, a large section of Indian households are shifting from their traditional sources of water to BDW. However, there are some concerns about the quality of BDW. Many cases, BDW contains chemical toxins at more than permissible level that can be harmful for health. Hence, there is an urgent need for appropriate intervention to regulate price, reduce potential harm and improve the quality of water provided by this industry.

Keywords: drinking water, public health public failure, privatization, development, public policy

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Authors: B. Sudhakara Reddy

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The transition to a clean and green energy system is an economic and social transformation that is exciting as well as challenging. The world today faces a formidable challenge in transforming its economy from being driven primarily by fossil fuels, which are non-renewable and a major source of global pollution, to becoming an economy that can function effectively using renewable energy sources and by achieving high energy efficiency levels. In the present study, a green economy scenario is developed for India using a bottom-up approach. The results show that the penetration rate of renewable energy resources will reduce the total primary energy demand by 23% under GE. Improvements in energy efficiency (e.g. households, industrial and commercial sectors) will result in reduced demand to the tune of 318 MTOE. The volume of energy-related CO2 emissions decline to 2,218 Mt in 2030 from 3,440 under the BAU scenario and the per capita emissions will reduce by about 35% (from 2.22 to 1.45) under the GE scenario. The reduction in fossil fuel demand and focus on clean energy will reduce the energy intensity to 0.21 (TOE/US$ of GDP) and carbon intensity to 0.42 (ton/US$ of GDP) under the GE scenario. total import bill (coal and oil) will amount to US$ 334 billion by 2030 (at 2010/11 prices), but as per the GE scenario, it would be US$ 194.2 billion, a saving of about US$ 140 billion. The building of a green energy economy can also serve another purpose: to develop new ‘pathways out of poverty’ by creating more than 10 million jobs and thus raise the standard of living of low-income people. The differences between the baseline and green energy scenarios are not so much the consequence of the diffusion of various technologies. It is the result of the active roles of different actors and the drivers that become dominant.

Keywords: emissions, green energy, fossil fuels, green jobs, renewables, scenario

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Authors: Riyadh Jamegh, Alla Eldin Kassam, Sawsan Sabih

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In order to overcome uncertainty conditions and inability to meet customers' requests due to these conditions, organizations tend to reserve a certain safety stock level (SSL). This level must be chosen carefully in order to avoid the increase in holding cost due to excess in SSL or shortage cost due to too low SSL. This paper used soft computing fuzzy logic to identify optimal SSL; this fuzzy model uses the dynamic concept to cope with high complexity environment status. The proposed model can deal with three input variables, i.e., demand stability level, raw material availability level, and on hand inventory level by using dynamic fuzzy logic to obtain the best SSL as an output. In this model, demand stability, raw material, and on hand inventory levels are described linguistically and then treated by inference rules of the fuzzy model to extract the best level of safety stock. The aim of this research is to provide dynamic approach which is used to identify safety stock level, and it can be implanted in different industries. Numerical case study in the dairy industry with Yogurt 200 gm cup product is explained to approve the validity of the proposed model. The obtained results are compared with the current level of safety stock which is calculated by using the traditional approach. The importance of the proposed model has been demonstrated by the significant reduction in safety stock level.

Keywords: inventory optimization, soft computing, safety stock optimization, dairy industries inventory optimization

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Authors: Jagdeep Singh, Prem Singh

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Milk is considered as an essential and complete food. The present study was conducted at Milk Plant Mohali especially in reference to the procurement section where the cash inflow was maximum, with the objective to achieve higher productivity and reduce wastage of milk. In milk plant it was observed that during the month of Jan-2014 to March-2014 the average procurement of milk was Rs. 4, 19, 361 liter per month and cost of procurement of milk is Rs 35/- per liter. The total cost of procurement thereby equal to Rs. 1crore 46 lakh per month, but there was mismatch in procurement-production of milk, which leads to an average loss of Rs. 12, 94, 405 per month. To solve the procurement-production problem Quality Control Tools like brainstorming, Flow Chart, Cause effect diagram and Pareto analysis are applied wherever applicable. With the successful implementation of Quality Control tools an average saving of Rs. 4, 59, 445 per month is done.

Keywords: milk, procurement-demand, quality control tools,

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Authors: Mohamad Ghozali Hassan, Abdul Aziz Othman, Mohd Azril Ismail

Abstract:

Adapting quickly to environmental dynamism is essential for an organization to develop outsourcing strategic and management in order to sustain competitive advantage. This research used the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) tool to investigate the factors of environmental dynamism impact on the strategic outsourcing success among electrical and electronic manufacturing industries in outsourcing management. Statistical results confirm that the inclusion of customer demand, technological change, and competition level as a new combination concept of environmental dynamism, has positive effects on outsourcing success. Additionally, this research demonstrates the acceptability of PLS-SEM as a statistical analysis to furnish a better understanding of environmental dynamism in outsourcing management in Malaysia. A practical finding contributes to academics and practitioners in the field of outsourcing management.

Keywords: environmental dynamism, customer demand, technological change, competition level, outsourcing success

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Authors: Yan Zhang, Jan Awrejcewicz, Lin Fu

Abstract:

High-heeled shoes force the foot into plantar flexion position resulting in foot arch rising and disturbance of the articular congruence between the talus and tibiofibular mortice, all of which may increase the challenge of balance maintenance. Plantar pressure distribution of the stance limb during the star excursion balance test (SEBT) contributes to the understanding of potential sources of reaching excursions in SEBT. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the dynamic posture control while wearing high-heeled shoes using SEBT in a combination of plantar pressure measurement. Twenty healthy young females were recruited. Shoes of three heel heights were used: flat (0.8 cm), low (4.0 cm), high (6.6 cm). The testing grid of SEBT consists of three lines extending out at 120° from each other, which were defined as anterior, posteromedial, and posterolateral directions. Participants were instructed to stand on their dominant limb with the heel in the middle of the testing grid and hands on hips and to reach the non-stance limb as far as possible towards each direction. The distal portion of the reaching limb lightly touched the ground without shifting weight. Then returned the reaching limb to the beginning position. The excursion distances were normalized to leg length. The insole plantar measurement system was used to record peak pressure, contact area, and pressure-time integral of the stance limb. Results showed that normalized excursion distance decreased significantly as heel height increased. The changes of plantar pressure in SEBT as heel height increased were more obvious in the medial forefoot (MF), medial midfoot (MM), rearfoot areas. At MF, the peak pressure and pressure-time integral of low and high shoes increased significantly compared with that of flat shoes, while the contact area decreased significantly as heel height increased. At MM, peak pressure, contact area, and pressure-time integral of high and low shoes were significantly lower than that of flat shoes. To reduce posture instability, the stance limb plantar loading shifted to medial forefoot. Knowledge of this study identified dynamic posture control deficits while wearing high-heeled shoes and the critical role of the medial forefoot in dynamic balance maintenance.

Keywords: dynamic posture control, high-heeled shoes, plantar pressure, star excursion balance test.

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Authors: Rahul Malhotra

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The field of wireless sensor networks (WSN) engages a lot of associates in the research community as an interdisciplinary field of interest. This type of network is inexpensive, multifunctionally attributable to advances in micro-electromechanical systems and conjointly the explosion and expansion of wireless communications. A mobile ad hoc network is a wireless network without fastened infrastructure or federal management. Due to the infrastructure-less mode of operation, mobile ad-hoc networks are gaining quality. During this work, we have performed an efficient performance study of the two major routing protocols: Ad hoc On-Demand Distance Vector Routing (AODV) and Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) protocols. We have used an accurate simulation model supported NS2 for this purpose. Our simulation results showed that AODV mitigates the drawbacks of the DSDV and provides better performance as compared to DSDV.

Keywords: routing protocol, MANET, AODV, On Demand Distance Vector Routing, DSR, Dynamic Source Routing

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Authors: Ashutosh Biswas, Poonam Coushic, Kalpana Baruah, Paras Singla, A. C. Dhariwal, Pawana Murthy

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Burden of Dengue in Northern India Ashutosh Biswas, Poonam Coushic, Kalpana Baruah, Paras Singla, AC Dhariwal, Pawana Murthy. All India Institute of Medical Sciences, NVBDCP,WHO New Delhi, India Aim: This study was conducted to estimate the burden of dengue in capital region of India. Methodology:Seropositivity of Dengue for IgM Ab, NS1 Ag and IgG Ab were performed among the blood donors’ samples from blood bank, those who were coming to donate blood for the requirement of blood for the admitted patients in hospital. Blood samplles were collected through out the year to estimate seroprevalance of dengue with or without outbreak season. All the subjects were asymptomatic at the time of blood donation. Results: A total of 1558 donors were screened for the study. On the basis of inclusion/ exclusion criteria, we enrolled 1531subjects for the study.Twenty seven donors were excluded from the study, out of which 6 were detected HIV +ve, 11 were positive for HBsAg and 10 were found positive for HCV.Mean age was 30.51 ± 7.75 years.Of 1531subjects, 18 (1.18%) had a past history of typhoid fever, 28 (1.83%) had chikungunya fever, 9 (0.59%) had malaria and 43 subjects (2.81%) had a past history of symptomatic dengue infection.About 2.22% (34) of subjects were found to have sero-positive for NS1 Ag with a peak point prevalence of 7.14% in the month of October and sero-positive of IgM Ab was observed about 5.49% (84)with a peak point prevalence of 14.29% in the month of October. Sero-prevalnce of IgGwas detected in about 64.21% (983) of subjects. Conclusion: Acute asymptomatic dengue (NS1 Ag+ve) was observed in 7.14%, as the subjects were having no symptoms at the time of sampling. This group of subjects poses a potential public health threat for transmitting dengue infection through blood transfusion (TTI) in the community as evident by presence of active viral infection due to NS1Ag +VE. Therefore a policy may be implemented in the blood bank for testing NS1 Ag to look for active dengue infection for preventing dengue transmission through blood transfusion (TTI). Acute or Subacute dengue infection ( IgM Ab+ve) was observed from 5.49% to 14.29% which is a peak point prevalence in the month of October. About 64.21% of the population were immunized by natural dengue infection ( IgG Ab+ve) in theNorthern province of India. This might be helpful for implementing the dengue vaccine in a region. Blood samples in blood banks should be tested for dengue before transfusion to any other person to prevent transfusion transmitted dengue infection as we estimated upto 7.14% positivity of NS1 Ag in our study which indicates presence of dengue virus in blood donors’ samples.

Keywords: Dengue Burden, Seroprevalance, Asymptomatic dengue, Dengue transmission through blood transfusion

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Authors: P. Brinks, O. Kornadt, R. Oly

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This research focuses on the optimization of glazed surfaces and the assessment of possible solar gains in industrial buildings. Existing window rating methods for single windows were evaluated and a new method for a simple analysis of energy gains and losses by single windows was introduced. Furthermore extensive transient building simulations were carried out to appraise the performance of low cost polycarbonate multi-cell sheets in interaction with typical buildings for industrial applications. Mainly, energy-saving potential was determined by optimizing the orientation and area of such glazing systems in dependency on their thermal qualities. Moreover the impact on critical aspects such as summer overheating and daylight illumination was considered to ensure the user comfort and avoid additional energy demand for lighting or cooling. Hereby the simulated heating demand could be reduced by up to 1/3 compared to traditional architecture of industrial halls using mainly skylights.

Keywords: solar architecture, Passive Solar Building Design, glazing, Low-Energy Buildings, industrial buildings

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Authors: Sima Shakoorjavan, Mahdieh Eskafi, Dawid Stawski, Somaye Akbari

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In this study, poly (amidoamine) dendritic material (PAMAM) and poly (acrylic acid) (PAA) as polycation and polyanion were deposited on surface charged polylactide (PLA) nonwoven to study the relationship of dye absorption capacity of layered-PLA with the number of deposited layers. To produce negatively charged-PLA, acrylic acid (AA) was grafted on the PLA surface (PLA-g-AA) through a chemical redox reaction with the strong oxidizing agent. Spectroscopy analysis, water contact measurement, and FTIR-ATR analysis confirm the successful grafting of AA on the PLA surface through the chemical redox reaction method. In detail, an increase in dye absorption percentage by 19% and immediate absorption of water droplets ensured hydrophilicity of PLA-g-AA surface; and the presence of new carbonyl bond at 1530 cm-¹ and a wide peak of hydroxyl between 3680-3130 cm-¹ confirm AA grafting. In addition, PLA as linear polyester can undergo aminolysis, which is the cleavage of ester bonds and replacement with amid bonds when exposed to an aminolysis agent. Therefore, to produce positively charged PLA, PAMAM as amine-terminated dendritic material was introduced to PLA molecular chains at different conditions; (1) at 60 C for 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 hours of aminolysis and (2) at room temperature (RT) for 1, 2, 3, and 4 hours of aminolysis. Weight changes and spectrophotometer measurements showed a maximum in weight gain graph and K/S value curve indicating the highest PAMAM attachment at 60 C for 1 hour and RT for 2 hours which is considered as an optimum condition. Also, the emerging new peak around 1650 cm-1 corresponding to N-H bending vibration and double wide peak at around 3670-3170 cm-1 corresponding to N-H stretching vibration confirm PAMAM attachment in selected optimum condition. In the following, regarding the initial surface charge of grafted-PLA, lbl deposition was performed and started with PAA or PAMAM. FTIR-ATR results confirm chemical changes in samples due to deposition of the first layer (PAA or PAMAM). Generally, spectroscopy analysis indicated that an increase in layer number costed dye absorption capacity. It can be due to the partial deposition of a new layer on the previously deposited layer; therefore, the available PAMAM at the first layer is more than the third layer. In detail, in the case of layer-PLA starting lbl with negatively charged, having PAMAM as the first top layer (PLA-g-AA/PAMAM) showed the highest dye absorption of both cationic and anionic model dye.

Keywords: surface modification, layer-by-layer technique, dendritic materials, PAMAM, dye absorption capacity, PLA nonwoven

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Authors: Malleshappa Japagal, Srinivas Chitragar

Abstract:

The use of waste plastic in pavement is becoming important alternative worldwide for disposal of plastic as well as to improve the stability of pavement and to meet out environmental issues. However, there are still concerns on fatigue and fracture resistance of Hot Mix Asphalt with the addition of plastic waste, (HMA-Plastic mixes) and moisture damage potential. The present study was undertaken to evaluate fracture resistance of HMA-Plastic mixes using semi-circular bending (SCB) test and moisture damage potential by Indirect Tensile strength (ITS) test using retained tensile strength (TSR). In this study, a dense graded asphalt mix with 19 mm nominal maximum aggregate size was designed in the laboratory using Marshall Mix design method. Aggregates were coated with different percentages of waste plastic (0%, 2%, 3% and 4%) by weight of aggregate and performance evaluation of fracture resistance and Moisture damage was carried out. The following parameters were estimated for the mixes: J-Integral or Jc, strain energy at failure, peak load at failure, and deformation at failure. It was found that the strain energy and peak load of all the mixes decrease with an increase in notch depth, indicating that increased percentage of plastic waste gave better fracture resistance. The moisture damage potential was evaluated by Tensile strength ratio (TSR). The experimental results shown increased TRS value up to 3% addition of waste plastic in HMA mix which gives better performance hence the use of waste plastic in road construction is favorable.

Keywords: hot mix asphalt, semi circular bending, marshall mix design, tensile strength ratio

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