Search results for: parking demand forecast

Authors: Sofia Ayouche, Rachid Ellaia, Rajae Aboulaich

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Today, insurers may use the yield curve as an indicator evaluation of the profit or the performance of their portfolios; therefore, they modeled it by one class of model that has the ability to fit and forecast the future term structure of interest rates. This class of model is the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model. Unfortunately, many authors have reported a lot of difficulties when they want to calibrate the model because the optimization problem is not convex and has multiple local optima. In this context, we implement a hybrid Particle Swarm optimization and Nelder Mead algorithm in order to minimize by least squares method, the difference between the zero-coupon curve and the NSS curve.

Keywords: optimization, zero-coupon curve, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson, particle swarm optimization, Nelder-Mead algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 428

Authors: Lamaa Sellami, Bechir Alaya

Abstract:

Nowadays, video-on-demand (VoD) applications are becoming one of the tendencies driving vehicular network users. In this paper, considering the unpredictable vehicle density, the unexpected acceleration or deceleration of the different cars included in the vehicular traffic load, and the limited radio range of the employed communication scheme, we introduce the “Dynamic Vehicular Clustering” (DVC) algorithm as a new scheme for video streaming systems over VANET. The proposed algorithm takes advantage of the concept of small cells and the introduction of wireless backhauls, inspired by the different features and the performance of the Long Term Evolution (LTE)- Advanced network. The proposed clustering algorithm considers multiple characteristics such as the vehicle’s position and acceleration to reduce latency and packet loss. Therefore, each cluster is counted as a small cell containing vehicular nodes and an access point that is elected regarding some particular specifications.

Keywords: video-on-demand, vehicular ad-hoc network, mobility, vehicular traffic load, small cell, wireless backhaul, LTE-advanced, latency, packet loss

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: G. L. C. Yap

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Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.

Keywords: Gaussian process, long-memory, normalization, value-at-risk, volatility, Whittle estimator

Procedia PDF Downloads 353

Authors: Magdalena Grudzińska

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Passive systems allow solar radiation to be converted into thermal energy thanks to appropriate building construction. Greenhouse systems are particularly worth attention, due to the low costs of their realization and strong architectural appeal. The paper discusses the energy effects of using passive greenhouse systems, such as glazed balconies, in an example residential building. The research was carried out for five localities in Poland, belonging to climatic zones different in terms of external air temperature and insolation: Koszalin, Poznań, Lublin, Białystok and Zakopane The analysed apartment had a floor area of approximately 74 m² Three thermal zones were distinguished in the flat - the balcony, the room adjacent to it, and the remaining space, for which various internal conditions were defined. Calculations of the energy demand were made using the dynamic simulation program, based on the control volume method. The climatic data were represented by Typical Meteorological Years, prepared on the basis of source data collected from 1971 to 2000. In each locality, the introduction of a passive greenhouse system led to a lower demand for heating in the apartment, and the shortening of the heating season. The smallest effectiveness of passive solar energy systems was noted in Białystok. Demand for heating was reduced there by 14.5% and the heating season remained the longest, due to low temperatures of external air and small sums of solar radiation intensity. In Zakopane, energy savings came to 21% and the heating season was reduced to 107 days, thanks to the greatest insolation during winter. The introduction of greenhouse systems caused an increase in cooling demand in the warmer part of the year, but total energy demand declined in each of the discussed places. However, potential energy savings are smaller if the building's annual life cycle is taken into consideration, and amount from 5.6% up to 14%. Koszalin and Zakopane are localities in which the greenhouse system allows the best energy results to be achieved. It should be emphasized that favourable conditions for introducing greenhouse systems are connected with different climatic conditions. In the seaside area (Koszalin) they result from high temperatures in the heating season and the smallest insolation in the summer period, while in the mountainous area (Zakopane) they result from high insolation in the winter and low temperatures in the summer. In the region of middle and middle-eastern Poland active systems (such as solar energy collectors or photovoltaic panels) could be more beneficial, due to high insolation during summer. It is assessed that passive systems do not eliminate the need for traditional heating in Poland. They can, however, substantially contribute to lower use of non-renewable fuels and the shortening of the heating season. The calculations showed diversification in the effectiveness of greenhouse systems resulting from climatic conditions, and allowed to identify areas which are the most suitable for the passive use of solar radiation.

Keywords: solar energy, passive greenhouse systems, glazed balconies, climatic conditions

Procedia PDF Downloads 366

Authors: Nida Rizvi, Deeksha Katyal, Varun Joshi

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River Hindon is an important river catering the demand of highly populated rural and industrial cluster of western Uttar Pradesh, India. Water quality of river Hindon is deteriorating at an alarming rate due to various industrial, municipal and agricultural activities. The present study aimed at identifying the pollution sources and quantifying the degree to which these sources are responsible for the deteriorating water quality of the river. Various water quality parameters, like pH, temperature, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, total hardness, calcium, chloride, nitrate, sulphate, biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand and total alkalinity were assessed. Water quality data obtained from eight study sites for one year has been subjected to the two multivariate techniques, namely, principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Principal component analysis was applied with the aim to find out spatial variability and to identify the sources responsible for the water quality of the river. Three Varifactors were obtained after varimax rotation of initial principal components using principal component analysis. Cluster analysis was carried out to classify sampling stations of certain similarity, which grouped eight different sites into two clusters. The study reveals that the anthropogenic influence (municipal, industrial, waste water and agricultural runoff) was the major source of river water pollution. Thus, this study illustrates the utility of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and elucidation of multifaceted data sets, recognition of pollution sources/factors and understanding temporal/spatial variations in water quality for effective river water quality management.

Keywords: cluster analysis, multivariate statistical techniques, river Hindon, water quality

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Authors: D. I. George Amalarethinam, A. Emima

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Educational Data Mining (EDM) is one of the newest topics to emerge in recent years, and it is concerned with developing methods for analyzing various types of data gathered from the educational circle. EDM methods and techniques with machine learning algorithms are used to extract meaningful and usable information from huge databases. For scientists and researchers, realistic applications of Machine Learning in the EDM sectors offer new frontiers and present new problems. One of the most important research areas in EDM is predicting student success. The prediction algorithms and techniques must be developed to forecast students' performance, which aids the tutor, institution to boost the level of student’s performance. This paper examines various classification techniques in prediction methods and data mining tools used in EDM.

Keywords: classification technique, data mining, EDM methods, prediction methods

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Authors: Eya Hentati, Mona Lamine, Jalel Bouzid

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In this study, a laboratory-scale was designed and fabricated to treat single house greywater in the north of Tunisia with a combination of physical and natural treatments systems. The combined system includes a bio-filter composed of LECA® (lightweight expanded clay aggregate) followed by a vertical up-flow constructed wetland planted with Iris pseudacorus and Typha Latifolia. Applied two hydraulic retention times (HRTs) with two different plants types showed that a bio-filter planted with Typha Latifolia has an optimum removal efficiency for degradation of organic matter and transformation of nitrogen and phosphate at HRT of 30 h. The optimum removal efficiency of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and suspended solids (SS) ranged between 48-65%, between while the nutrients removal was in the range of 70% to 90%. Fecal coliforms dropped by three to four orders of magnitude from their initial concentration, but this steel does not meet current regulations for unlimited irrigation. Hence further improvement procedures are suggested.

Keywords: constructed wetland, greywater treatment, nutriments, organics

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Authors: Guilherme Gorgulho, Carlos Roberto Camello Lima

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Due to the competitive market in which companies are currently engaged, the constant changes require companies to react quickly regarding the variability of demand and process. The changes are caused by customers, or by demand fluctuations or variations of products, or the need to serve customers within agreed delivery taking into account the continuous search for quality and competitive prices in products. These changes end up influencing directly or indirectly the activities of the Planning and Production Control (PPC), which does business in strategic, tactical and operational levels of production systems. One area of concern for organizations is in the short term (operational level), because this planning stage any error or divergence will cause waste and impact on the delivery of products on time to customers. Thus, this study aims to optimize the efficiency of production scheduling, using different sequencing strategies in an automotive company. Seeking to aim the proposed objective, we used the computer simulation in conjunction with lean manufacturing to build and validate the current model, and subsequently the creation of future scenarios.

Keywords: computational simulation, lean manufacturing, production scheduling, sequencing strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: T. Sarat Chandra, M. Maneesh Kumar, S. N. Mudliar, V. S. Chauhan, S. Mukherji, R. Sarada

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The life cycle assessment (LCA) of biodiesel production from freshwater microalgae Scenedesmus dimorphus cultivated in open raceway pond is performed. Various scenarios for biodiesel production were simulated using primary and secondary data. The parameters varied in the modelled scenarios were related to biomass productivity, mode of culture mixing and type of energy source. The process steps included algae cultivation in open raceway ponds, harvesting by chemical flocculation, dewatering by mechanical drying option (MDO) followed by extraction, reaction and purification. Anaerobic digestion of defatted algal biomass (DAB) for biogas generation is considered as a co-product allocation and the energy derived from DAB was thereby used in the upstream of the process. The scenarios were analysed for energy demand, emissions and environmental impacts within the boundary conditions grounded on "cradle to gate" inventory. Across all the Scenarios, cultivation via raceway pond was observed to be energy intensive process. The mode of culture mixing and biomass productivity determined the energy requirements of the cultivation step. Emissions to Freshwater were found to be maximum contributing to 93-97% of total emissions in all the scenarios. Global warming potential (GWP) was the found to be major environmental impact accounting to about 99% of total environmental impacts in all the modelled scenarios. It was noticed that overall emissions and impacts were directly related to energy demand and an inverse relationship was observed with biomass productivity. The geographic location of an energy source affected the environmental impact of a given process. The integration of defatted algal remnants derived electricity with the cultivation system resulted in a 2% reduction in overall energy demand. Direct biogas generation from microalgae post harvesting is also analysed. Energy surplus was observed after using part of the energy in upstream for biomass production. Results suggest biogas production from microalgae post harvesting as an environmentally viable and sustainable option compared to biodiesel production.

Keywords: biomass productivity, energy demand, energy source, Lifecycle Assessment (LCA), microalgae, open raceway pond

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Saurabh Parkhedkar, Rajanikant Tenguria

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The paper proposes revamping the public transportation system in Mumbai with the use of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology in order to provide better integration and compatibility across various modes of transport. In Mumbai, mass transport system suffers from poor inter-compatible ticketing system, subpar money collection techniques, and lack of planning for optimum utilization of resources. Development of suburbs and growth in population will result in growing demand for mass transportation networks. Hence, the growing demand for the already overburdened public transportation system is only going to worsen the scenario. Thus, a superior system is essential in order to regulate, manage and supervise future transportation needs. The proposed RFID based system integrates Mumbai Suburban Railway, BEST (Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport Undertaking transport wing) Bus, Mumbai Monorail and Mumbai Metro systems into a Unified Public Transportation System (UPTS). The UTPS takes into account various drawbacks of the present day system and offers solution, suitable for the modern age Mumbai.

Keywords: urbanization, transportation, RFID, Mumbai, public transportation, smart city.

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Authors: Amira M. Attia, Karim H. Youssef, Nabil H. Abbasi

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Demand Side Management (DSM) is an essential characteristic of current and future smart grid systems. As one of DSM functions, load management aims to control customers’ total electric consumption and utility’s load factor by using various load shaping techniques. However, applying load shaping techniques such as load shifting, peak clipping, or strategic conservation individually does not provide the desired level of improvement for load factor increment and/or customer’s bill reduction. In this paper, two load shaping techniques will be simulated as constrained optimization problems. The purpose is to reflect the application of combined load shifting and strategic conservation model together at the same time, and the application of combined load shifting and peak clipping model as well. The problem will be formulated and solved by using disciplined convex programming (CVX) based MATLAB® R2013b. Simulation results will be evaluated and compared for studying the most impactful multi-techniques model in improving load curve.

Keywords: convex programing, demand side management, load shaping, multiple, building energy optimization

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Authors: Razieh Khalafi

Abstract:

Myocardial infarction (MI) or acute myocardial infarction (AMI), commonly known as a heart attack, occurs when blood flow stops to part of the heart causing damage to the heart muscle. An ECG can often show evidence of a previous heart attack or one that's in progress. The patterns on the ECG may indicate which part of your heart has been damaged, as well as the extent of the damage. In chaos theory, the correlation dimension is a measure of the dimensionality of the space occupied by a set of random points, often referred to as a type of fractal dimension. In this research by considering ECG signal as a random walk we work on forecasting the oncoming heart attack by analyzing the ECG signals using the correlation dimension. In order to test the model a set of ECG signals for patients before and after heart attack was used and the strength of model for forecasting the behavior of these signals were checked. Results shows this methodology can forecast the ECG and accordingly heart attack with high accuracy.

Keywords: heart attack, ECG, random walk, correlation dimension, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 539

Authors: Teera Intararuang

Abstract:

This research aims to study guidelines to developed Sai Temple’ local boat museum to be as cultural tourism attraction and explored villagers requirement in term of type and format of interpretation which they want to promote their cultural tourism for Sai Temple, Kradangnga sub-district, Bang Khon Tee district, Samut Songkhram province. However, this article will explores only the requirement of type and format of interpretation which 40 villagers of Ruam Sai Pattana 789 purposed to promote Sai temple. The procedures are In-depth Interview, Observation, Focus Group by discussing ideas. After that the information received is synthesized and analyzed. From research result, it is revealed that the local community’ requirement on types and format of interpretation as brochure with up to date, faithfully and formally content to present Sai Temple which got the most demand score (3.82) considered as most wanted demand.

Keywords: museum, boat museum, cultural tourism, interpretation, brochure, Bangkhontee district, Samut Songkhram province

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Authors: Oded Hochman

Abstract:

We first show that current measures of welfare changes in the whole economy do not apply to an economy with cities. In addition, since such measures are defined over a partial equilibrium, they capture only partially the effect of a welfare change. We then define a unique and additive measure that we term the modified economic surplus (mES) which fully captures the welfare effects caused by a change in the price of a nationally traded good. We show that the price change causes, on the one hand a change of land rents in the economy and, on the other hand, an equal change of mES that can be estimated by measuring areas in the price-quantity national demand and supply plane. We construct for each city a cost function from which we derive a city’s and, after aggregation, an economy-wide demand and supply functions of nationwide prices and of either the unearned incomes (Marshalian functions) or the utility levels (compensated functions).

Keywords: city cost function, welfare measures, modified compensated variation, modified economic surplus, unearned income function, differential land rents, city size

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, Nour M. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

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An existing RC building in Madinah is seismically evaluated with and without infill wall. Four model systems have been considered i. e. model I (no infill), model IIA (strut infill-update from field test), model IIB (strut infill- ASCE/SEI 41) and model IIC (strut infill-Soft storey-ASCE/SEI 41). Three dimensional pushover analyses have been carried out using SAP 2000 software incorporating inelastic material behavior for concrete, steel and infill walls. Infill wall has been modeled as equivalent strut according to suggested equation matching field test measurements and to the ASCE/SEI 41 equation. The effect of building modeling on the performance point as well as capacity and demand spectra due to EQ design spectrum function in Madinah area has been investigated. The response modification factor (R) for the 5 story RC building is evaluated from capacity and demand spectra (ATC-40) for the studied models. The results are summarized and discussed.

Keywords: infill wall, pushover analysis, response modification factor, seismic assessment

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Authors: Afaneen Anwer, Samara M. Kamil

Abstract:

Load Forecast required prediction accuracy based on optimal operation and maintenance. A good accuracy is the basis of economic dispatch, unit commitment, and system reliability. A good load forecasting system fulfilled fast speed, automatic bad data detection, and ability to access the system automatically to get the needed data. In this paper, the formulation of the load forecasting is discussed and the solution is obtained by using artificial neural network method. A MATLAB environment has been used to solve the load forecasting schedule of Iraqi super grid network considering the daily load for three years. The obtained results showed a good accuracy in predicting the forecasted load.

Keywords: load forecasting, neural network, back-propagation algorithm, Iraqi power system

Procedia PDF Downloads 580

Authors: Saeed Poormoaied

Abstract:

Perishability and developing an intelligent control policy for perishable items are the major concerns of marketing managers in a supply chain. In this study, we address a two-echelon supply chain problem for perishable items with a single vendor and a single buyer. The buyer adopts an aged-based continuous review policy which works by taking both the stock level and the aging process of items into account. The vendor works under the warehouse framework, where its lot size is determined with respect to the batch size of the buyer. The model holds for a positive and fixed lead time for the buyer, and zero lead time for the vendor. The demand follows a Poisson process and any unmet demand is lost. We provide exact analytic expressions for the operational characteristics of the system by using the renewal reward theorem. Items have a fixed lifetime after which they become unusable and are disposed of from the buyer's system. The age of items starts when they are unpacked and ready for the consumption at the buyer. When items are held by the vendor, there is no aging process which results in no perishing at the vendor's site. The model is developed under the centralized framework, which takes the expected profit of both vendor and buyer into consideration. The goal is to determine the optimal policy parameters under the service level constraint at the retailer's site. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of the key input parameters on the expected profit and order quantity in the supply chain. The efficiency of the proposed age-based policy is also evaluated through a numerical study. Our results show that when the unit perishing cost is negligible, a significant cost saving is achieved.

Keywords: two-echelon supply chain, perishable items, age-based policy, renewal reward theorem

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Faisal Bin Alam

Abstract:

Most of the manufacturing entities cause negative footprint to nature that demand due attention. Textile industries have one of the longest supply chains and bear the liability of significant environmental impact to our planet. Issues of environmental safety, scarcity of energy and resources, and demand for eco-friendly products have driven research to search for safe and suitable alternatives in apparel processing. Consumer awareness, increased pressure from fashion brands and actions from local legislative authorities have somewhat been able to improve the practices. Objective of this paper is to reveal the best selection of raw materials and methods of production, taking environmental sustainability into account. Methodology used in this study is exploratory in nature based on personal experience, field visits in the factories of Bangladesh and secondary sources. Findings are limited to exploring better alternatives to conventional operations of a Readymade Garment manufacturing, from fibre selection to final product delivery, therefore showing some ways of achieving greener environment in the supply chain of a clothing industry.

Keywords: textile and apparel, environmental sustainability, supply chain, production, clothing

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Razi Khalafi

Abstract:

Myocardial Infarction (MI) or acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI), commonly known as a heart attack, occurs when blood flow stops to part of the heart causing damage to the heart muscle. An ECG can often show evidence of a previous heart attack or one that's in progress. The patterns on the ECG may indicate which part of your heart has been damaged, as well as the extent of the damage. In chaos theory, the correlation dimension is a measure of the dimensionality of the space occupied by a set of random points, often referred to as a type of fractal dimension. In this research by considering ECG signal as a random walk we work on forecasting the oncoming heart attack by analysing the ECG signals using the correlation dimension. In order to test the model a set of ECG signals for patients before and after heart attack was used and the strength of model for forecasting the behaviour of these signals were checked. Results show this methodology can forecast the ECG and accordingly heart attack with high accuracy.

Keywords: heart attack, ECG, random walk, correlation dimension, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 505

Authors: Martin Pellon Consunji

Abstract:

Due to the rise in popularity of Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a store of wealth and speculative investment, there is an ever-growing demand for automated trading tools, such as bots, in order to gain an advantage over the market. Traditionally, trading in the stock market was done by professionals with years of training who understood patterns and exploited market opportunities in order to gain a profit. However, nowadays a larger portion of market participants are at minimum aided by market-data processing bots, which can generally generate more stable signals than the average human trader. The rise in trading bot usage can be accredited to the inherent advantages that bots have over humans in terms of processing large amounts of data, lack of emotions of fear or greed, and predicting market prices using past data and artificial intelligence, hence a growing number of approaches have been brought forward to tackle this task. However, the general limitation of these approaches can still be broken down to the fact that limited historical data doesn’t always determine the future, and that a lot of market participants are still human emotion-driven traders. Moreover, developing markets such as those of the cryptocurrency space have even less historical data to interpret than most other well-established markets. Due to this, some human traders have gone back to the tried-and-tested traditional technical analysis tools for exploiting market patterns and simplifying the broader spectrum of data that is involved in making market predictions. This paper proposes a method which uses neuro evolution techniques on both sentimental data and, the more traditionally human-consumed, technical analysis data in order to gain a more accurate forecast of future market behavior and account for the way both automated bots and human traders affect the market prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This study’s approach uses evolutionary algorithms to automatically develop increasingly improved populations of bots which, by using the latest inflows of market analysis and sentimental data, evolve to efficiently predict future market price movements. The effectiveness of the approach is validated by testing the system in a simulated historical trading scenario, a real Bitcoin market live trading scenario, and testing its robustness in other cryptocurrency and stock market scenarios. Experimental results during a 30-day period show that this method outperformed the buy and hold strategy by over 260% in terms of net profits, even when taking into consideration standard trading fees.

Keywords: neuro-evolution, Bitcoin, trading bots, artificial neural networks, technical analysis, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Mohammad Ranjbaran Madiseh

Abstract:

In this research, an experimental apparatus has been developed for observing interfacial stability and deformation of multilayer pressure-driven channel flows. The interface instability of the co-extrusion flow of polyethylene and polypropylene is studied experimentally in a slit geometry. By investigating the growing interfacial wave (IW) and tensile stress of extrudate samples, a relationship between interfacial instability (II) and mechanical properties of polypropylene (PP) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) has been established. It is shown that the mechanism of interfacial strength is related to interfacial instabilities as well as interfacial strength. It is shown that there is an ability to forecast the quality of final products in the co-extrusion process. In this study, it is found that the instability is controlled by its dominant wave number, which is associated with maximum tensile stress at the interface.

Keywords: interfacial instability, interfacial strength, wave number, interfacial wave

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

Procedia PDF Downloads 359

Authors: Nermine A. Harraz, Aliaa Abouali

Abstract:

The retail stores put up for sale multiple items while the spaces in the backroom and display areas constitute a scarce resource. Availability, volume, and location of the product displayed in the showroom influence the customer’s demand. Managing these operations individually will result in sub-optimal overall retail store’s profit; therefore, a non-linear integer programming model (NLIP) is developed to determine the inventory replenishment and shelf space allocation decisions that together maximize the retailer’s profit under shelf space and backroom storage constraints taking into consideration that the demand rate is positively dependent on the amount and location of items displayed in the showroom. The developed model is solved using LINGO® software. The NLIP model is implemented in a real world case study in a large retail outlet providing a large variety of products. The proposed model is validated and shows logical results when using the experimental data collected from the market.

Keywords: retailing management, inventory replenishment, shelf space allocation, showroom, backroom

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Authors: Orpita U. Laz, Ataur Rahman

Abstract:

Climate change will affect various aspects of hydrological cycle such as rainfall. A change in rainfall will affect flood magnitude and frequency in future which will affect the design and operation of hydraulic structures. In this paper, trends in sub-hourly, sub-daily, and daily extreme rainfall events from 18 rainfall stations located in Tasmania, Australia are examined. Two non-parametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho) are applied to detect trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. Sub-hourly (6, 12, 18, and 30 minutes) annual maximum rainfall events have been found to experience statistically significant upward trends at 10 % level of significance. However, sub-daily durations (1 hour, 3 and 12 hours) exhibit decreasing trends and no trends exists for longer duration rainfall events (e.g. 24 and 72 hours). Some of the durations (e.g. 6 minutes and 6 hours) show similar results (with upward trends) for both the tests. For 12, 18, 60 minutes and 3 hours durations both the tests show similar downward trends. This finding has important implication for Tasmania in the design of urban infrastructure where shorter duration rainfall events are more relevant for smaller urban catchments such as parking lots, roof catchments and smaller sub-divisions.

Keywords: climate change, design rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, trends, Spearman’s Rho, Tasmania

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Authors: Jun Yuan

Abstract:

Shipping is a major transportation mode all over the world, and it has a significant contribution to global carbon emissions. Electrification of ships is one of the main strategies to reduce shipping carbon emissions. The number of electric ships has continued to grow in recent years. However, charging infrastructure is still scarce, which severely restricts the development of electric ships. Therefore, it is very important to design ship charging stations reasonably by comprehensively considering charging demand and investment costs. This study aims to minimize the full life cycle cost of charging stations, considering the uncertainty of charging demand. A mixed integer programming model is developed for this optimization problem. Based on the characteristics of the mathematical model, a simulation based optimization method is proposed to find the optimal number and rated power of chargers. In addition, the impact of renewable energy and storage systems is analyzed. The results can provide decision support and a reference basis for the design of ship charging stations.

Keywords: shipping emission, electricity ship, charging station, optimal design

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Tamar Lazariashvili

Abstract:

The development of agrotourism in Georgia has significant potential. The trend of population growth and demand for agrotourism products makes the interest and importance of the development of this field even more relevant. The article studies the trends in the development of agrotourism in Georgia; SWOT analysis reveals the potential for the development of agrotourism and assesses the perspectives, examines the factors hindering the development of agrotourism, assesses the role of the state in the development of agrotourism. Objectives: The purpose of the study is to determine the development trends of agrotourism in Georgia and to develop recommendations for prospective directions based on the assessment of the field's potential. Methodologies: Research methods are used: analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, comparison, statistical (selection, grouping, observation, trend) and other methods, as well as SWOT analysis. Contributions: A positive trend in the development of agrotourism has been revealed. It is also shown that the demand for agrotourism products is growing. The agro touristic potential of Georgia was assessed and prospective directions for the development of the field have been determined. Conclusions: are drawn on the problems identified in the work and recommendations are proposed on ways to effectively use the potential opportunities of agrotourism and ways of long-term development.

Keywords: agrotourism, agrotourism products, agrotourism potential, development prospects.

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Paydar, Armin Cheraghalipour, Mostafa Hajiaghaei-Keshteli

Abstract:

Nowadays, in advanced countries, agriculture as one of the most significant sectors of the economy, plays an important role in its political and economic independence. Due to farmers' lack of information about products' demand and lack of proper planning for harvest time, annually the considerable amount of products is corrupted. Besides, in this paper, we attempt to improve these unfavorable conditions via designing an effective supply chain network that tries to minimize total costs of agricultural products along with minimizing shortage in demand points. To validate the proposed model, a stochastic optimization approach by using a branch and bound solver of the LINGO software is utilized. Furthermore, to accumulate the data of parameters, a case study in Mazandaran province placed in the north of Iran has been applied. Finally, using ɛ-constraint approach, a Pareto front is obtained and one of its Pareto solutions as best solution is selected. Then, related results of this solution are explained. Finally, conclusions and suggestions for the future research are presented.

Keywords: perishable products, stochastic optimization, agricultural supply chain, ɛ-constraint

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Ehsan Saghehei, Mahdi Eghbali

Abstract:

The maximal covering location problem (MCLP) was originally developed to determine a set of facility locations which would maximize the total customers' demand serviced by the facilities within a predetermined critical service criterion. However, on some problems that differences between the demand nodes are covered or the number of nodes each node is large, the method of solving MCLP may ignore these differences. In this paper, Heuristic solution based on the ranking of demands in each node and the number of nodes covered by each node according to a predetermined critical value is proposed. The output of this method is to maximize total demands of nodes and number of covered nodes, simultaneously. Furthermore, by providing an example, the solution algorithm is described and its results are compared with Greedy and Lagrange algorithms. Also, the results of the algorithm to solve the larger problem sizes that compared with other methods are provided. A summary and future works conclude the paper.

Keywords: heuristic solution, maximal covering location problem, ranking, set covering

Procedia PDF Downloads 572

Authors: Chayanika Rout, Debjani Chakraborty, Adrijit Goswami

Abstract:

Our work presents an inventory model which illustrates imperfect production and imperfect inspection processes for deteriorating items. A cost-minimizing model is studied considering two types of inspection errors, namely, Type I error of falsely screening out a proportion of non-defects, thereby passing them on for rework and Type II error of falsely not screening out a proportion of defects, thus selling those to customers which incurs a penalty cost. The screened items are reworked; however, no returns are entertained due to deteriorating nature of the items. In more practical situations, certain parameters such as the demand rate and the deterioration rate of inventory cannot be accurately determined, and therefore, they are assumed to be triangular fuzzy numbers in our model. We calculate the optimal lot size that must be produced in order to minimize the total inventory cost for both the crisp and the fuzzy models. A numerical example is also considered to exemplify the procedure which is followed by the analysis of sensitivity of various parameters on the decision variable and the objective function.

Keywords: deteriorating items, EPQ, imperfect quality, rework, type I and type II inspection errors

Procedia PDF Downloads 181