Search results for: human machine learning
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 15696

Search results for: human machine learning

15126 Predictive Analysis of Chest X-rays Using NLP and Large Language Models with the Indiana University Dataset and Random Forest Classifier

Authors: Azita Ramezani, Ghazal Mashhadiagha, Bahareh Sanabakhsh

Abstract:

This study researches the combination of Random. Forest classifiers with large language models (LLMs) and natural language processing (NLP) to improve diagnostic accuracy in chest X-ray analysis using the Indiana University dataset. Utilizing advanced NLP techniques, the research preprocesses textual data from radiological reports to extract key features, which are then merged with image-derived data. This improved dataset is analyzed with Random Forest classifiers to predict specific clinical results, focusing on the identification of health issues and the estimation of case urgency. The findings reveal that the combination of NLP, LLMs, and machine learning not only increases diagnostic precision but also reliability, especially in quickly identifying critical conditions. Achieving an accuracy of 99.35%, the model shows significant advancements over conventional diagnostic techniques. The results emphasize the large potential of machine learning in medical imaging, suggesting that these technologies could greatly enhance clinician judgment and patient outcomes by offering quicker and more precise diagnostic approximations.

Keywords: natural language processing (NLP), large language models (LLMs), random forest classifier, chest x-ray analysis, medical imaging, diagnostic accuracy, indiana university dataset, machine learning in healthcare, predictive modeling, clinical decision support systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 32
15125 How to Guide Students from Surface to Deep Learning: Applied Philosophy in Management Education

Authors: Lihong Wu, Raymond Young

Abstract:

The ability to learn is one of the most critical skills in the information age. However, many students do not have a clear understanding of what learning is, what they are learning, and why they are learning. Many students study simply to pass rather than to learn something useful for their career and their life. They have a misconception about learning and a wrong attitude towards learning. This research explores student attitudes to study in management education and explores how to intercede to lead students from shallow to deeper modes of learning.

Keywords: knowledge, surface learning, deep learning, education

Procedia PDF Downloads 491
15124 Impact Location From Instrumented Mouthguard Kinematic Data In Rugby

Authors: Jazim Sohail, Filipe Teixeira-Dias

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Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) within non-helmeted contact sports is a growing concern due to the serious risk of potential injury. Extensive research is being conducted looking into head kinematics in non-helmeted contact sports utilizing instrumented mouthguards that allow researchers to record accelerations and velocities of the head during and after an impact. This does not, however, allow the location of the impact on the head, and its magnitude and orientation, to be determined. This research proposes and validates two methods to quantify impact locations from instrumented mouthguard kinematic data, one using rigid body dynamics, the other utilizing machine learning. The rigid body dynamics technique focuses on establishing and matching moments from Euler’s and torque equations in order to find the impact location on the head. The methodology is validated with impact data collected from a lab test with the dummy head fitted with an instrumented mouthguard. Additionally, a Hybrid III Dummy head finite element model was utilized to create synthetic kinematic data sets for impacts from varying locations to validate the impact location algorithm. The algorithm calculates accurate impact locations; however, it will require preprocessing of live data, which is currently being done by cross-referencing data timestamps to video footage. The machine learning technique focuses on eliminating the preprocessing aspect by establishing trends within time-series signals from instrumented mouthguards to determine the impact location on the head. An unsupervised learning technique is used to cluster together impacts within similar regions from an entire time-series signal. The kinematic signals established from mouthguards are converted to the frequency domain before using a clustering algorithm to cluster together similar signals within a time series that may span the length of a game. Impacts are clustered within predetermined location bins. The same Hybrid III Dummy finite element model is used to create impacts that closely replicate on-field impacts in order to create synthetic time-series datasets consisting of impacts in varying locations. These time-series data sets are used to validate the machine learning technique. The rigid body dynamics technique provides a good method to establish accurate impact location of impact signals that have already been labeled as true impacts and filtered out of the entire time series. However, the machine learning technique provides a method that can be implemented with long time series signal data but will provide impact location within predetermined regions on the head. Additionally, the machine learning technique can be used to eliminate false impacts captured by sensors saving additional time for data scientists using instrumented mouthguard kinematic data as validating true impacts with video footage would not be required.

Keywords: head impacts, impact location, instrumented mouthguard, machine learning, mTBI

Procedia PDF Downloads 205
15123 An Efficient Motion Recognition System Based on LMA Technique and a Discrete Hidden Markov Model

Authors: Insaf Ajili, Malik Mallem, Jean-Yves Didier

Abstract:

Human motion recognition has been extensively increased in recent years due to its importance in a wide range of applications, such as human-computer interaction, intelligent surveillance, augmented reality, content-based video compression and retrieval, etc. However, it is still regarded as a challenging task especially in realistic scenarios. It can be seen as a general machine learning problem which requires an effective human motion representation and an efficient learning method. In this work, we introduce a descriptor based on Laban Movement Analysis technique, a formal and universal language for human movement, to capture both quantitative and qualitative aspects of movement. We use Discrete Hidden Markov Model (DHMM) for training and classification motions. We improve the classification algorithm by proposing two DHMMs for each motion class to process the motion sequence in two different directions, forward and backward. Such modification allows avoiding the misclassification that can happen when recognizing similar motions. Two experiments are conducted. In the first one, we evaluate our method on a public dataset, the Microsoft Research Cambridge-12 Kinect gesture data set (MSRC-12) which is a widely used dataset for evaluating action/gesture recognition methods. In the second experiment, we build a dataset composed of 10 gestures(Introduce yourself, waving, Dance, move, turn left, turn right, stop, sit down, increase velocity, decrease velocity) performed by 20 persons. The evaluation of the system includes testing the efficiency of our descriptor vector based on LMA with basic DHMM method and comparing the recognition results of the modified DHMM with the original one. Experiment results demonstrate that our method outperforms most of existing methods that used the MSRC-12 dataset, and a near perfect classification rate in our dataset.

Keywords: human motion recognition, motion representation, Laban Movement Analysis, Discrete Hidden Markov Model

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15122 Chronicling the Debates Around the Use of English as a Language of Learning and Teaching in Schools

Authors: Manthekeleng Linake, Fesi Liziwe

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The ongoing argument over the use of English as a learning and teaching language in schools was examined in this study. The nature of the language proficiency gap is particularly relevant in light of the present emphasis on learning and educational quality in contemporary debates, as well as the education sustainable development goal. As a result, an interpretivist paradigm, a qualitative technique, and a case study-based research design were used in the work. Two school principals, two teachers, two members of the School Governing Body (SGB), and four learners were chosen using purposive sampling from two schools in the Amathole West Education District. The researchers were able to acquire in-depth information on the disputes surrounding the use of English as a language of learning and teaching by using semi-structured interview questions and focus groups. Despite knowing that they do not have the potential to do well in English, teachers found that despite appreciating the value of mother tongue and cultural identity, they prefer to use English as the language of teaching in schools. The findings, on the other hand, revealed that proponents of mother-language-based education argue that learning one's mother tongue is a human right.

Keywords: English first additional language learners, social justice, human capabilities, language proficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
15121 Prediction of Remaining Life of Industrial Cutting Tools with Deep Learning-Assisted Image Processing Techniques

Authors: Gizem Eser Erdek

Abstract:

This study is research on predicting the remaining life of industrial cutting tools used in the industrial production process with deep learning methods. When the life of cutting tools decreases, they cause destruction to the raw material they are processing. This study it is aimed to predict the remaining life of the cutting tool based on the damage caused by the cutting tools to the raw material. For this, hole photos were collected from the hole-drilling machine for 8 months. Photos were labeled in 5 classes according to hole quality. In this way, the problem was transformed into a classification problem. Using the prepared data set, a model was created with convolutional neural networks, which is a deep learning method. In addition, VGGNet and ResNet architectures, which have been successful in the literature, have been tested on the data set. A hybrid model using convolutional neural networks and support vector machines is also used for comparison. When all models are compared, it has been determined that the model in which convolutional neural networks are used gives successful results of a %74 accuracy rate. In the preliminary studies, the data set was arranged to include only the best and worst classes, and the study gave ~93% accuracy when the binary classification model was applied. The results of this study showed that the remaining life of the cutting tools could be predicted by deep learning methods based on the damage to the raw material. Experiments have proven that deep learning methods can be used as an alternative for cutting tool life estimation.

Keywords: classification, convolutional neural network, deep learning, remaining life of industrial cutting tools, ResNet, support vector machine, VggNet

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15120 Experiments on Weakly-Supervised Learning on Imperfect Data

Authors: Yan Cheng, Yijun Shao, James Rudolph, Charlene R. Weir, Beth Sahlmann, Qing Zeng-Treitler

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Supervised predictive models require labeled data for training purposes. Complete and accurate labeled data, i.e., a ‘gold standard’, is not always available, and imperfectly labeled data may need to serve as an alternative. An important question is if the accuracy of the labeled data creates a performance ceiling for the trained model. In this study, we trained several models to recognize the presence of delirium in clinical documents using data with annotations that are not completely accurate (i.e., weakly-supervised learning). In the external evaluation, the support vector machine model with a linear kernel performed best, achieving an area under the curve of 89.3% and accuracy of 88%, surpassing the 80% accuracy of the training sample. We then generated a set of simulated data and carried out a series of experiments which demonstrated that models trained on imperfect data can (but do not always) outperform the accuracy of the training data, e.g., the area under the curve for some models is higher than 80% when trained on the data with an error rate of 40%. Our experiments also showed that the error resistance of linear modeling is associated with larger sample size, error type, and linearity of the data (all p-values < 0.001). In conclusion, this study sheds light on the usefulness of imperfect data in clinical research via weakly-supervised learning.

Keywords: weakly-supervised learning, support vector machine, prediction, delirium, simulation

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15119 Evaluating Imitation Behavior of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder Using Humanoid Robot NAO

Authors: Masud Karim, Md. Solaiman Mia, Saifuddin Md. Tareeq, Md. Hasanuzzaman

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Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopment disorder. Such disorder is found in childhood life. Children with ASD have less capabilities in communication and social skills. Therapies are used to develop communication and social skills. Recently researchers have been trying to use robots in such therapies. In this paper, we have presented social skill learning test cases for children with ASD. Autism conditions are measured in 30 children in a special school. Among them, twelve children are selected who have equal ASD conditions. Then six children participated in training with humans, and another six children participated in training with robots. The learning session continued for one week and three hours each day. We have taken an assessment test before the learning sessions. After completing the learning sessions, we have taken another assessment test. We have found better performances from children who have participated in robotic sessions rather than the children who have participated in human sessions.

Keywords: children with ASD, NAO robot, human-robot interaction, social skills

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15118 A Heart Arrhythmia Prediction Using Machine Learning’s Classification Approach and the Concept of Data Mining

Authors: Roshani S. Golhar, Neerajkumar S. Sathawane, Snehal Dongre

Abstract:

Background and objectives: As the, cardiovascular illnesses increasing and becoming cause of mortality worldwide, killing around lot of people each year. Arrhythmia is a type of cardiac illness characterized by a change in the linearity of the heartbeat. The goal of this study is to develop novel deep learning algorithms for successfully interpreting arrhythmia using a single second segment. Because the ECG signal indicates unique electrical heart activity across time, considerable changes between time intervals are detected. Such variances, as well as the limited number of learning data available for each arrhythmia, make standard learning methods difficult, and so impede its exaggeration. Conclusions: The proposed method was able to outperform several state-of-the-art methods. Also proposed technique is an effective and convenient approach to deep learning for heartbeat interpretation, that could be probably used in real-time healthcare monitoring systems

Keywords: electrocardiogram, ECG classification, neural networks, convolutional neural networks, portable document format

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15117 EEG-Based Classification of Psychiatric Disorders: Bipolar Mood Disorder vs. Schizophrenia

Authors: Han-Jeong Hwang, Jae-Hyun Jo, Fatemeh Alimardani

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An accurate diagnosis of psychiatric diseases is a challenging issue, in particular when distinct symptoms for different diseases are overlapped, such as delusions appeared in bipolar mood disorder (BMD) and schizophrenia (SCH). In the present study, we propose a useful way to discriminate BMD and SCH using electroencephalography (EEG). A total of thirty BMD and SCH patients (15 vs. 15) took part in our experiment. EEG signals were measured with nineteen electrodes attached on the scalp using the international 10-20 system, while they were exposed to a visual stimulus flickering at 16 Hz for 95 s. The flickering visual stimulus induces a certain brain signal, known as steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP), which is differently observed in patients with BMD and SCH, respectively, in terms of SSVEP amplitude because they process the same visual information in own unique way. For classifying BDM and SCH patients, machine learning technique was employed in which leave-one-out-cross validation was performed. The SSVEPs induced at the fundamental (16 Hz) and second harmonic (32 Hz) stimulation frequencies were extracted using fast Fourier transformation (FFT), and they were used as features. The most discriminative feature was selected using the Fisher score, and support vector machine (SVM) was used as a classifier. From the analysis, we could obtain a classification accuracy of 83.33 %, showing the feasibility of discriminating patients with BMD and SCH using EEG. We expect that our approach can be utilized for psychiatrists to more accurately diagnose the psychiatric disorders, BMD and SCH.

Keywords: bipolar mood disorder, electroencephalography, schizophrenia, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 407
15116 Optimization of the Control Scheme for Human Extremity Exoskeleton

Authors: Yang Li, Xiaorong Guan, Cheng Xu

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In order to design a suitable control scheme for human extremity exoskeleton, the interaction force control scheme with traditional PI controller was presented, and the simulation study of the electromechanical system of the human extremity exoskeleton was carried out by using a MATLAB/Simulink module. By analyzing the simulation calculation results, it was shown that the traditional PI controller is not very suitable for every movement speed of human body. So, at last the fuzzy self-adaptive PI controller was presented to solve this problem. Eventually, the superiority and feasibility of the fuzzy self-adaptive PI controller was proved by the simulation results and experimental results.

Keywords: human extremity exoskeleton, interaction force control scheme, simulation study, fuzzy self-adaptive pi controller, man-machine coordinated walking, bear payload

Procedia PDF Downloads 354
15115 A Unique Multi-Class Support Vector Machine Algorithm Using MapReduce

Authors: Aditi Viswanathan, Shree Ranjani, Aruna Govada

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With data sizes constantly expanding, and with classical machine learning algorithms that analyze such data requiring larger and larger amounts of computation time and storage space, the need to distribute computation and memory requirements among several computers has become apparent. Although substantial work has been done in developing distributed binary SVM algorithms and multi-class SVM algorithms individually, the field of multi-class distributed SVMs remains largely unexplored. This research seeks to develop an algorithm that implements the Support Vector Machine over a multi-class data set and is efficient in a distributed environment. For this, we recursively choose the best binary split of a set of classes using a greedy technique. Much like the divide and conquer approach. Our algorithm has shown better computation time during the testing phase than the traditional sequential SVM methods (One vs. One, One vs. Rest) and out-performs them as the size of the data set grows. This approach also classifies the data with higher accuracy than the traditional multi-class algorithms.

Keywords: distributed algorithm, MapReduce, multi-class, support vector machine

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15114 Yawning Computing Using Bayesian Networks

Authors: Serge Tshibangu, Turgay Celik, Zenzo Ncube

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Road crashes kill nearly over a million people every year, and leave millions more injured or permanently disabled. Various annual reports reveal that the percentage of fatal crashes due to fatigue/driver falling asleep comes directly after the percentage of fatal crashes due to intoxicated drivers. This percentage is higher than the combined percentage of fatal crashes due to illegal/Un-Safe U-turn and illegal/Un-Safe reversing. Although a relatively small percentage of police reports on road accidents highlights drowsiness and fatigue, the importance of these factors is greater than we might think, hidden by the undercounting of their events. Some scenarios show that these factors are significant in accidents with killed and injured people. Thus the need for an automatic drivers fatigue detection system in order to considerably reduce the number of accidents owing to fatigue.This research approaches the drivers fatigue detection problem in an innovative way by combining cues collected from both temporal analysis of drivers’ faces and environment. Monotony in driving environment is inter-related with visual symptoms of fatigue on drivers’ faces to achieve fatigue detection. Optical and infrared (IR) sensors are used to analyse the monotony in driving environment and to detect the visual symptoms of fatigue on human face. Internal cues from drivers faces and external cues from environment are combined together using machine learning algorithms to automatically detect fatigue.

Keywords: intelligent transportation systems, bayesian networks, yawning computing, machine learning algorithms

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15113 Efficiency of Information Technology Based Learning and Teaching in Higher Educations

Authors: Mahalingam Palaniandi

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Higher education plays vital role in the nation building process for a country and the rest of world. The higher education sector develops the change-agents for the various fields which will help the human-kind wheel to run further. Conventional and traditional class-room based learning and teaching was followed in many decades which is one-to-one and one-to-many. In a way, these are simplest form of learners to be assembled in a class room wherein the teacher used the blackboard to demonstrate the theory and laboratories used for practical. As the technology evolved tremendously for the last 40 years, the teaching and learning environment changed slowly, wherein, the learning community will be anywhere in the world and teacher deliver the content through internet based tools such as video conferencing, web based conferencing tools or E-learning platforms such as Blackboard or noodle. Present day, the mobile technologies plays an important tool to deliver the teaching content on-the-go. Both PC based and mobile based learning technology brought the learning and teaching community together in various aspects. However, as the learning technology also brought various hurdles for learning processes such as plagiarism and not using the reference books entirely as most of the students wants the information instantaneously using internet without actually going to the library to take the notes from the millions of the books which are not available online as e-books which result lack of fundamental knowledge of the concepts complex theories. However, technology is inseparable in human life, now-a-days and every part of it contains piece of information technology right from computers to home appliances. To make use of the IT based learning and teaching at most efficiency, we should have a proper framework and recommendations laid to the learning community in order to derive the maximum efficiency from the IT based teaching and leaning. This paper discusses various IT based tools available for the learning community, efficiency from its usage and recommendations for the suitable framework that needs to be implemented at higher education institutions which makes the learners stronger in both theory as well as real-time knowledge of their studies that is going to be used in their future for the better world.

Keywords: higher education, e-learning, teaching learning, eLearning tools

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15112 Prediction-Based Midterm Operation Planning for Energy Management of Exhibition Hall

Authors: Doseong Eom, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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Large exhibition halls require a lot of energy to maintain comfortable atmosphere for the visitors viewing inside. One way of reducing the energy cost is to have thermal energy storage systems installed so that the thermal energy can be stored in the middle of night when the energy price is low and then used later when the price is high. To minimize the overall energy cost, however, we should be able to decide how much energy to save during which time period exactly. If we can foresee future energy load and the corresponding cost, we will be able to make such decisions reasonably. In this paper, we use machine learning technique to obtain models for predicting weather conditions and the number of visitors on hourly basis for the next day. Based on the energy load thus predicted, we build a cost-optimal daily operation plan for the thermal energy storage systems and cooling and heating facilities through simulation-based optimization.

Keywords: building energy management, machine learning, operation planning, simulation-based optimization

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15111 AI-Driven Forecasting Models for Anticipating Oil Market Trends and Demand

Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

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The volatility of the oil market, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, presents significant challenges for stakeholders in predicting trends and demand. This article explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in developing robust forecasting models to anticipate changes in the oil market more accurately. We delve into various AI techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis, that have been adapted to analyze historical data and current market conditions to forecast future trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex patterns and dependencies in market data, which traditional forecasting methods often miss. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of external variables such as political events, economic policies, and technological advancements that influence oil prices and demand. By leveraging AI, stakeholders can achieve a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, enabling better strategic planning and risk management. The article concludes with a discussion on the potential of AI-driven models in enhancing the predictive accuracy of oil market forecasts and their implications for global economic planning and strategic resource allocation.

Keywords: AI forecasting, oil market trends, machine learning, deep learning, time series analysis, predictive analytics, economic factors, geopolitical influence, technological advancements, strategic planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 26
15110 Combining Multiscale Patterns of Weather and Sea States into a Machine Learning Classifier for Mid-Term Prediction of Extreme Rainfall in North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Authors: Pinel Sebastien, Bourrin François, De Madron Du Rieu Xavier, Ludwig Wolfgang, Arnau Pedro

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Heavy precipitation constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Research has investigated the relationship between the states of the Mediterranean Sea and the atmosphere with the precipitation for short temporal windows. However, at a larger temporal scale, the precursor signals of heavy rainfall in the sea and atmosphere have drawn little attention. Moreover, despite ongoing improvements in numerical weather prediction, the medium-term forecasting of rainfall events remains a difficult task. Here, we aim to investigate the influence of early-spring environmental parameters on the following autumnal heavy precipitations. Hence, we develop a machine learning model to predict extreme autumnal rainfall with a 6-month lead time over the Spanish Catalan coastal area, based on i) the sea pattern (main current-LPC and Sea Surface Temperature-SST) at the mesoscale scale, ii) 4 European weather teleconnection patterns (NAO, WeMo, SCAND, MO) at synoptic scale, and iii) the hydrological regime of the main local river (Rhône River). The accuracy of the developed model classifier is evaluated via statistical analysis based on classification accuracy, logarithmic and confusion matrix by comparing with rainfall estimates from rain gauges and satellite observations (CHIRPS-2.0). Sensitivity tests are carried out by changing the model configuration, such as sea SST, sea LPC, river regime, and synoptic atmosphere configuration. The sensitivity analysis suggests a negligible influence from the hydrological regime, unlike SST, LPC, and specific teleconnection weather patterns. At last, this study illustrates how public datasets can be integrated into a machine learning model for heavy rainfall prediction and can interest local policies for management purposes.

Keywords: extreme hazards, sensitivity analysis, heavy rainfall, machine learning, sea-atmosphere modeling, precipitation forecasting

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15109 Internet of Things Networks: Denial of Service Detection in Constrained Application Protocol Using Machine Learning Algorithm

Authors: Adamu Abdullahi, On Francisca, Saidu Isah Rambo, G. N. Obunadike, D. T. Chinyio

Abstract:

The paper discusses the potential threat of Denial of Service (DoS) attacks in the Internet of Things (IoT) networks on constrained application protocols (CoAP). As billions of IoT devices are expected to be connected to the internet in the coming years, the security of these devices is vulnerable to attacks, disrupting their functioning. This research aims to tackle this issue by applying mixed methods of qualitative and quantitative for feature selection, extraction, and cluster algorithms to detect DoS attacks in the Constrained Application Protocol (CoAP) using the Machine Learning Algorithm (MLA). The main objective of the research is to enhance the security scheme for CoAP in the IoT environment by analyzing the nature of DoS attacks and identifying a new set of features for detecting them in the IoT network environment. The aim is to demonstrate the effectiveness of the MLA in detecting DoS attacks and compare it with conventional intrusion detection systems for securing the CoAP in the IoT environment. Findings: The research identifies the appropriate node to detect DoS attacks in the IoT network environment and demonstrates how to detect the attacks through the MLA. The accuracy detection in both classification and network simulation environments shows that the k-means algorithm scored the highest percentage in the training and testing of the evaluation. The network simulation platform also achieved the highest percentage of 99.93% in overall accuracy. This work reviews conventional intrusion detection systems for securing the CoAP in the IoT environment. The DoS security issues associated with the CoAP are discussed.

Keywords: algorithm, CoAP, DoS, IoT, machine learning

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15108 Quick Covering Machine for Grain Drying Pavement

Authors: Fatima S. Rodriguez, Victorino T. Taylan, Manolito C. Bulaong, Helen F. Gavino, Vitaliana U. Malamug

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In sundrying, the quality of the grains are greatly reduced when paddy grains were caught by the rain unsacked and unstored resulting to reduced profit. The objectives of this study were to design and fabricate a quick covering machine for grain drying pavement to test and evaluate the operating characteristics of the machine according to its deployment speed, recovery speed, deployment time, recovery time, power consumption, aesthetics of laminated sack, conducting partial budget, and cost curve analysis. The machine was able to cover the grains in a 12.8 m x 22.5 m grain drying pavement at an average time of 17.13 s. It consumed 0 .53 W-hr for the deployment and recovery of the cover. The machine entailed an investment cost of $1,344.40 and an annual cost charge of $647.32. Moreover, the savings per year using the quick covering machine was $101.83.

Keywords: quick, covering machine, grain, drying pavement

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15107 Does sustainability disclosure improve analysts’ forecast accuracy Evidence from European banks

Authors: Albert Acheampong, Tamer Elshandidy

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We investigate the extent to which sustainability disclosure from the narrative section of European banks’ annual reports improves analyst forecast accuracy. We capture sustainability disclosure using a machine learning approach and use forecast error to proxy analyst forecast accuracy. Our results suggest that sustainability disclosure significantly improves analyst forecast accuracy by reducing the forecast error. In a further analysis, we also find that the induction of Directive 2014/95/European Union (EU) is associated with increased disclosure content, which then reduces forecast error. Collectively, our results suggest that sustainability disclosure improves forecast accuracy, and the induction of the new EU directive strengthens this improvement. These results hold after several further and robustness analyses. Our findings have implications for market participants and policymakers.

Keywords: sustainability disclosure, machine learning, analyst forecast accuracy, forecast error, European banks, EU directive

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15106 Ensemble Methods in Machine Learning: An Algorithmic Approach to Derive Distinctive Behaviors of Criminal Activity Applied to the Poaching Domain

Authors: Zachary Blanks, Solomon Sonya

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Poaching presents a serious threat to endangered animal species, environment conservations, and human life. Additionally, some poaching activity has even been linked to supplying funds to support terrorist networks elsewhere around the world. Consequently, agencies dedicated to protecting wildlife habitats have a near intractable task of adequately patrolling an entire area (spanning several thousand kilometers) given limited resources, funds, and personnel at their disposal. Thus, agencies need predictive tools that are both high-performing and easily implementable by the user to help in learning how the significant features (e.g. animal population densities, topography, behavior patterns of the criminals within the area, etc) interact with each other in hopes of abating poaching. This research develops a classification model using machine learning algorithms to aid in forecasting future attacks that is both easy to train and performs well when compared to other models. In this research, we demonstrate how data imputation methods (specifically predictive mean matching, gradient boosting, and random forest multiple imputation) can be applied to analyze data and create significant predictions across a varied data set. Specifically, we apply these methods to improve the accuracy of adopted prediction models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, etc). Finally, we assess the performance of the model and the accuracy of our data imputation methods by learning on a real-world data set constituting four years of imputed data and testing on one year of non-imputed data. This paper provides three main contributions. First, we extend work done by the Teamcore and CREATE (Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events) research group at the University of Southern California (USC) working in conjunction with the Department of Homeland Security to apply game theory and machine learning algorithms to develop more efficient ways of reducing poaching. This research introduces ensemble methods (Random Forests and Stochastic Gradient Boosting) and applies it to real-world poaching data gathered from the Ugandan rain forest park rangers. Next, we consider the effect of data imputation on both the performance of various algorithms and the general accuracy of the method itself when applied to a dependent variable where a large number of observations are missing. Third, we provide an alternate approach to predict the probability of observing poaching both by season and by month. The results from this research are very promising. We conclude that by using Stochastic Gradient Boosting to predict observations for non-commercial poaching by season, we are able to produce statistically equivalent results while being orders of magnitude faster in computation time and complexity. Additionally, when predicting potential poaching incidents by individual month vice entire seasons, boosting techniques produce a mean area under the curve increase of approximately 3% relative to previous prediction schedules by entire seasons.

Keywords: ensemble methods, imputation, machine learning, random forests, statistical analysis, stochastic gradient boosting, wildlife protection

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15105 Unlocking Green Hydrogen Potential: A Machine Learning-Based Assessment

Authors: Said Alshukri, Mazhar Hussain Malik

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Green hydrogen is hydrogen produced using renewable energy sources. In the last few years, Oman aimed to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels. Recently, the hydrogen economy has become a global trend, and many countries have started to investigate the feasibility of implementing this sector. Oman created an alliance to establish the policy and rules for this sector. With motivation coming from both global and local interest in green hydrogen, this paper investigates the potential of producing hydrogen from wind and solar energies in three different locations in Oman, namely Duqm, Salalah, and Sohar. By using machine learning-based software “WEKA” and local metrological data, the project was designed to figure out which location has the highest wind and solar energy potential. First, various supervised models were tested to obtain their prediction accuracy, and it was found that the Random Forest (RF) model has the best prediction performance. The RF model was applied to 2021 metrological data for each location, and the results indicated that Duqm has the highest wind and solar energy potential. The system of one wind turbine in Duqm can produce 8335 MWh/year, which could be utilized in the water electrolysis process to produce 88847 kg of hydrogen mass, while a solar system consisting of 2820 solar cells is estimated to produce 1666.223 MWh/ year which is capable of producing 177591 kg of hydrogen mass.

Keywords: green hydrogen, machine learning, wind and solar energies, WEKA, supervised models, random forest

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15104 Machine Learning and Deep Learning Approach for People Recognition and Tracking in Crowd for Safety Monitoring

Authors: A. Degale Desta, Cheng Jian

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Deep learning application in computer vision is rapidly advancing, giving it the ability to monitor the public and quickly identify potentially anomalous behaviour from crowd scenes. Therefore, the purpose of the current work is to improve the performance of safety of people in crowd events from panic behaviour through introducing the innovative idea of Aggregation of Ensembles (AOE), which makes use of the pre-trained ConvNets and a pool of classifiers to find anomalies in video data with packed scenes. According to the theory of algorithms that applied K-means, KNN, CNN, SVD, and Faster-CNN, YOLOv5 architectures learn different levels of semantic representation from crowd videos; the proposed approach leverages an ensemble of various fine-tuned convolutional neural networks (CNN), allowing for the extraction of enriched feature sets. In addition to the above algorithms, a long short-term memory neural network to forecast future feature values and a handmade feature that takes into consideration the peculiarities of the crowd to understand human behavior. On well-known datasets of panic situations, experiments are run to assess the effectiveness and precision of the suggested method. Results reveal that, compared to state-of-the-art methodologies, the system produces better and more promising results in terms of accuracy and processing speed.

Keywords: action recognition, computer vision, crowd detecting and tracking, deep learning

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15103 Using Machine Learning to Build a Real-Time COVID-19 Mask Safety Monitor

Authors: Yash Jain

Abstract:

The US Center for Disease Control has recommended wearing masks to slow the spread of the virus. The research uses a video feed from a camera to conduct real-time classifications of whether or not a human is correctly wearing a mask, incorrectly wearing a mask, or not wearing a mask at all. Utilizing two distinct datasets from the open-source website Kaggle, a mask detection network had been trained. The first dataset that was used to train the model was titled 'Face Mask Detection' on Kaggle, where the dataset was retrieved from and the second dataset was titled 'Face Mask Dataset, which provided the data in a (YOLO Format)' so that the TinyYoloV3 model could be trained. Based on the data from Kaggle, two machine learning models were implemented and trained: a Tiny YoloV3 Real-time model and a two-stage neural network classifier. The two-stage neural network classifier had a first step of identifying distinct faces within the image, and the second step was a classifier to detect the state of the mask on the face and whether it was worn correctly, incorrectly, or no mask at all. The TinyYoloV3 was used for the live feed as well as for a comparison standpoint against the previous two-stage classifier and was trained using the darknet neural network framework. The two-stage classifier attained a mean average precision (MAP) of 80%, while the model trained using TinyYoloV3 real-time detection had a mean average precision (MAP) of 59%. Overall, both models were able to correctly classify stages/scenarios of no mask, mask, and incorrectly worn masks.

Keywords: datasets, classifier, mask-detection, real-time, TinyYoloV3, two-stage neural network classifier

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15102 Wireless Sensor Anomaly Detection Using Soft Computing

Authors: Mouhammd Alkasassbeh, Alaa Lasasmeh

Abstract:

We live in an era of rapid development as a result of significant scientific growth. Like other technologies, wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are playing one of the main roles. Based on WSNs, ZigBee adds many features to devices, such as minimum cost and power consumption, and increasing the range and connect ability of sensor nodes. ZigBee technology has come to be used in various fields, including science, engineering, and networks, and even in medicinal aspects of intelligence building. In this work, we generated two main datasets, the first being based on tree topology and the second on star topology. The datasets were evaluated by three machine learning (ML) algorithms: J48, meta.j48 and multilayer perceptron (MLP). Each topology was classified into normal and abnormal (attack) network traffic. The dataset used in our work contained simulated data from network simulation 2 (NS2). In each database, the Bayesian network meta.j48 classifier achieved the highest accuracy level among other classifiers, of 99.7% and 99.2% respectively.

Keywords: IDS, Machine learning, WSN, ZigBee technology

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15101 Early Stage Suicide Ideation Detection Using Supervised Machine Learning and Neural Network Classifier

Authors: Devendra Kr Tayal, Vrinda Gupta, Aastha Bansal, Khushi Singh, Sristi Sharma, Hunny Gaur

Abstract:

In today's world, suicide is a serious problem. In order to save lives, early suicide attempt detection and prevention should be addressed. A good number of at-risk people utilize social media platforms to talk about their issues or find knowledge on related chores. Twitter and Reddit are two of the most common platforms that are used for expressing oneself. Extensive research has already been done in this field. Through supervised classification techniques like Nave Bayes, Bernoulli Nave Bayes, and Multiple Layer Perceptron on a Reddit dataset, we demonstrate the early recognition of suicidal ideation. We also performed comparative analysis on these approaches and used accuracy, recall score, F1 score, and precision score for analysis.

Keywords: machine learning, suicide ideation detection, supervised classification, natural language processing

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15100 Blended Learning through Google Classroom

Authors: Lee Bih Ni

Abstract:

This paper discusses that good learning involves all academic groups in the school. Blended learning is learning outside the classroom. Google Classroom is a free service learning app for schools, non-profit organizations and anyone with a personal Google account. Facilities accessed through computers and mobile phones are very useful for school teachers and students. Blended learning classrooms using both traditional and technology-based methods for teaching have become the norm for many educators. Using Google Classroom gives students access to online learning. Even if the teacher is not in the classroom, the teacher can provide learning. This is the supervision of the form of the teacher when the student is outside the school.

Keywords: blended learning, learning app, google classroom, schools

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
15099 Facial Emotion Recognition Using Deep Learning

Authors: Ashutosh Mishra, Nikhil Goyal

Abstract:

A 3D facial emotion recognition model based on deep learning is proposed in this paper. Two convolution layers and a pooling layer are employed in the deep learning architecture. After the convolution process, the pooling is finished. The probabilities for various classes of human faces are calculated using the sigmoid activation function. To verify the efficiency of deep learning-based systems, a set of faces. The Kaggle dataset is used to verify the accuracy of a deep learning-based face recognition model. The model's accuracy is about 65 percent, which is lower than that of other facial expression recognition techniques. Despite significant gains in representation precision due to the nonlinearity of profound image representations.

Keywords: facial recognition, computational intelligence, convolutional neural network, depth map

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15098 Modeling Floodplain Vegetation Response to Groundwater Variability Using ArcSWAT Hydrological Model, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer - Normalised Difference Vegetation Index Data, and Machine Learning

Authors: Newton Muhury, Armando A. Apan, Tek Maraseni

Abstract:

This study modelled the relationships between vegetation response and available water below the soil surface using the Terra’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) generated Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and soil water content (SWC) data. The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interface known as ArcSWAT was used in ArcGIS for the groundwater analysis. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated in SWAT-CUP software using 10 years (2001-2010) of monthly streamflow data. The average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency during the calibration and validation was 0.54 and 0.51, respectively, indicating that the model performances were good. Twenty years (2001-2020) of monthly MODIS NDVI data for three different types of vegetation (forest, shrub, and grass) and soil water content for 43 sub-basins were analysed using the WEKA, machine learning tool with a selection of two supervised machine learning algorithms, i.e., support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The modelling results show that different types of vegetation response and soil water content vary in the dry and wet season. For example, the model generated high positive relationships (r=0.76, 0.73, and 0.81) between the measured and predicted NDVI values of all vegetation in the study area against the groundwater flow (GW), soil water content (SWC), and the combination of these two variables, respectively, during the dry season. However, these relationships were reduced by 36.8% (r=0.48) and 13.6% (r=0.63) against GW and SWC, respectively, in the wet season. On the other hand, the model predicted a moderate positive relationship (r=0.63) between shrub vegetation type and soil water content during the dry season, which was reduced by 31.7% (r=0.43) during the wet season. Our models also predicted that vegetation in the top location (upper part) of the sub-basin is highly responsive to GW and SWC (r=0.78, and 0.70) during the dry season. The results of this study indicate the study region is suitable for seasonal crop production in dry season. Moreover, the results predicted that the growth of vegetation in the top-point location is highly dependent on groundwater flow in both dry and wet seasons, and any instability or long-term drought can negatively affect these floodplain vegetation communities. This study has enriched our knowledge of vegetation responses to groundwater in each season, which will facilitate better floodplain vegetation management.

Keywords: ArcSWAT, machine learning, floodplain vegetation, MODIS NDVI, groundwater

Procedia PDF Downloads 105
15097 Theoretical and ML-Driven Identification of a Mispriced Credit Risk

Authors: Yuri Katz, Kun Liu, Arunram Atmacharan

Abstract:

Due to illiquidity, mispricing on Credit Markets is inevitable. This creates huge challenges to banks and investors as they seek to find new ways of risk valuation and portfolio management in a post-credit crisis world. Here, we analyze the difference in behavior of the spread-to-maturity in investment and high-yield categories of US corporate bonds between 2014 and 2023. Deviation from the theoretical dependency of this measure in the universe under study allows to identify multiple cases of mispriced credit risk. Remarkably, we observe mispriced bonds in both categories of credit ratings. This identification is supported by the application of the state-of-the-art machine learning model in more than 90% of cases. Noticeably, the ML-driven model-based forecasting of a category of bond’s credit ratings demonstrate an excellent out-of-sample accuracy (AUC = 98%). We believe that these results can augment conventional valuations of credit portfolios.

Keywords: credit risk, credit ratings, bond pricing, spread-to-maturity, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 69