Search results for: hetero-occurrences species distribution model

Authors: Cyrillus Prabandana

Abstract:

Supply chain optimisation requires multiple factors as consideration or constraints. These factors are including but not limited to demand forecasting, raw material fulfilment, production capacity, inventory level, facilities locations, transportation means, and manpower availability. By knowing all manageable factors involved and assuming the uncertainty with pre-defined percentage factors, an integrated supply chain model could be developed to manage various business scenarios. This paper analyse the utilisation of geographical point of view to develop an integrated supply chain network model to optimise the distribution of finished product appropriately according to forecasted demand and available supply. The supply chain optimisation model shows that small change in one supply chain constraint is possible to largely impact other constraints, and the new information from the model should be able to support the decision making process. The model was focused on three areas, i.e. raw material fulfilment, production capacity and finished products transportation. To validate the model suitability, it was implemented in a project aimed to optimise the concrete supply chain in a mining location. The high level of operations complexity and involvement of multiple stakeholders in the concrete supply chain is believed to be sufficient to give the illustration of the larger scope. The implementation of this geographical supply chain network modeling resulted an optimised concrete supply chain from raw material fulfilment until finished products distribution to each customer, which indicated by lower percentage of missed concrete order fulfilment to customer.

Keywords: decision making, geographical supply chain modeling, supply chain optimisation, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Kul Pun, F. A. Hamad, T. Ahmed, J. O. Ugwu, J. Eyers, G. Lawson, P. A. Russell

Abstract:

Determining droplet size and distribution is essential when determining the separation efficiency of a two/three-phase separator. This paper investigates the effect of liquid flow and oil pad thickness on the droplet size at the lab scale. The findings show that increasing the inlet flow rates of the oil and water results in size reduction of the droplets and increasing the thickness of the oil pad increases the size of the droplets. The data were fitted with a simple Gaussian model, and the parameters of mean, standard deviation, and amplitude were determined. Trends have been obtained for the fitted parameters as a function of the Reynolds number, which suggest a way forward to better predict the starting parameters for population models when simulating separation using CFD packages. The key parameter to predict to fix the position of the Gaussian distribution was found to be the mean droplet size.

Keywords: two-phase separator, average bubble droplet, bubble size distribution, liquid-liquid phase

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Bachir Nora

Abstract:

Integrating vegetation into urban environments is crucial for enhancing quality of life, particularly through microclimate regulation and the reduction of urban heat islands. This study investigates the impact of different street tree species on the urban microclimate in the El-Houria neighborhood of Mostaganem, Algeria, using the ENVI-met software for advanced environmental simulations. it focused on three tree species—Robinia pseudo-acacia, Populus alba, and Jacaranda mimosifolia—to evaluate their effectiveness in influencing key meteorological parameters, including air temperature, mean radiant temperature, surface temperature, and the predicted percentage of dissatisfied (PPD) thermal comfort index. Statistical analyses were conducted to compare these parameters across different tree species, ensuring the robustness of our findings. Our results indicate that Robinia pseudo-acacia is the most effective species, capable of reducing air temperature by up to 1°C and surface temperature by up to 12°C. These findings underscore the importance of strategically selecting tree species to mitigate the effects of climate change, improve thermal comfort, and reduce energy consumption in urban settings. The study offers valuable insights for urban planners and policymakers, providing practical guidance for sustainable urban design practices tailored to the Algerian context.

Keywords: heat islands, microclimate simulation, street tree alignment, sustainable urban design, thermal comfort.

Procedia PDF Downloads 32

Authors: Ehan Sabah Shukri, Wirachman Wisnoe

Abstract:

Numerical study is performed to investigate the temperature distribution in an annular diffuser fitted with helical tape hub. Different pitches (Y = 20 mm, and Y = 30 mm) for the helical tape are studied with different heights (H = 20 mm, 22 mm, and 24 mm) to be compared. The geometry of the annular diffuser and the inlet condition for both hub arrangements are kept constant. The result obtains that using helical tape insert with different pitches and different heights will force the temperature to distribute in a helical direction; however the use of helical tape hub with height (H = 22 mm) for both pitches enhance the temperature distribution in a good manner.

Keywords: helical tape, divergent fluid flow, temperature distribution, swirl flow, CFD

Procedia PDF Downloads 448

Authors: Kriangkrai Aranyarat

Abstract:

The effect of N2 pretreatment on the catalytic activity of tungsten-based catalysts was investigated in the metathesis of ethylene and trans-2-butene at 450oC and atmospheric pressure. The presence of tungsten active species was confirmed by UV-Vis and Raman spectroscopy. Compared to the WO3-based catalysts treated in air, higher amount of WO42- tetrahedral species and lower amount of WO3 crystalline species were observed on the N2-treated ones. These contribute to the higher conversion of 2-butene and propylene selectivity during 10 h time-on-stream. Moreover, N2 treatment led to lower amount of coke formation as revealed by TPO of the spent catalysts.

Keywords: metathesis, pretreatment, propylene, tungsten

Procedia PDF Downloads 468

Authors: Margaret Boone Rappaport, Christopher J. Corbally

Abstract:

The ancient ape ancestral population from which living great ape and human species evolved had demographic features affecting their evolution. The population was large, had great genetic variability, and natural selection was effective at honing adaptations. The emerging populations of chimpanzees and humans were affected more by founder effects and genetic drift because they were smaller. Natural selection did not disappear, but it was not as strong. Consequences of the 'population crash' and the human effective population size are introduced briefly. The history of the ancient apes is written in the genomes of living humans and great apes. The expansion of the brain began before the human line emerged. Coalescence times for some genes are very old – up to several million years, long before Homo sapiens. The mismatch between gene trees and species trees highlights the anthropoid speciation processes, and gives the human genome history a fuzzy, probabilistic quality. However, it suggests traits that might form a foundation for capacities emerging later. A theoretical model is presented in which the genomes of early ape populations provide the substructure for the emergence of religious capacity later on the human line. The model does not search for religion, but its foundations. It suggests a course by which an evolutionary line that began with prosimians eventually produced a human species with biologically based religious capacity. The model of the sequential emergence of religious capacity relies on cognitive science, neuroscience, paleoneurology, primate field studies, cognitive archaeology, genomics, and population genetics. And, it emphasizes five trait types: (1) Documented, positive selection of sensory capabilities on the human line may have favored survival, but also eventually enriched human religious experience. (2) The bonobo model suggests a possible down-regulation of aggression and increase in tolerance while feeding, as well as paedomorphism – but, in a human species that remains cognitively sharp (unlike the bonobo). The two species emerged from the same ancient ape population, so it is logical to search for shared traits. (3) An up-regulation of emotional sensitivity and compassion seems to have occurred on the human line. This finds support in modern genetic studies. (4) The authors’ published model of morality's emergence in Homo erectus encompasses a cognitively based, decision-making capacity that was hypothetically overtaken, in part, by religious capacity. Together, they produced a strong, variable, biocultural capability to support human sociability. (5) The full flowering of human religious capacity came with the parietal expansion and smaller face (klinorhynchy) found only in Homo sapiens. Details from paleoneurology suggest the stage was set for human theologies. Larger parietal lobes allowed humans to imagine inner spaces, processes, and beings, and, with the frontal lobe, led to the first theologies composed of structured and integrated theories of the relationships between humans and the supernatural. The model leads to the evolution of a small population of African hominins that was ready to emerge with religious capacity when the species Homo sapiens evolved two hundred thousand years ago. By 50-60,000 years ago, when human ancestors left Africa, they were fully enabled.

Keywords: genetic drift, genomics, parietal expansion, religious capacity

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Atefeh Pourshafie, Homayoun Bakhtiari

Abstract:

The main task of power distribution companies is to supply the power required by customers in an acceptable level of quality and reliability. Some key performance indicators for electric power distribution companies are those evaluating the continuity of supply within the network. More than other problems, power outages (due to lightning, flood, fire, earthquake, etc.) challenge economy and business. In addition, end users expect a reliable power supply. Reliability indices are evaluated on an annual basis by the specialized holding company of Tavanir (Power Produce, Transmission& distribution company of Iran) . Evaluation of reliability indices is essential for distribution companies, and with regard to the privatization of distribution companies, it will be of particular importance to evaluate these indices and to plan for their improvement in a not too distant future. According to IEEE-1366 standard, there are too many indices; however, the most common reliability indices include SAIFI, SAIDI and CAIDI. These indices describe the period and frequency of blackouts in the reporting period (annual or any desired timeframe). This paper calculates reliability indices for three sample feeders in Lorestan Electric Power Distribution Company and defines the threshold values in a ten-month period. At the end, strategies are introduced to reach the threshold values in order to increase customers' satisfaction.

Keywords: power, distribution network, reliability, outage

Procedia PDF Downloads 473

Authors: A. W. Kashimawo

Abstract:

Fish check list of Bayeku water, Lagos, Nigeria was investigated between February 2012 and January 2013. Fish specimens were caught with gill and cast-nets, and non-return valve basket trap. Services of artisanal fishermen were employed for the setting of gears and collections of fish. Species not captured after sampling were assumed to be absent or so rare as to be of minimal ecological importance. The 632 specimens were preserved in 10 % formaldehyde in the field prior to their identification. Physicochemical parameters such as temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and pH were determined from the lagoon water samples following standard methods. A total of 632 fish were encountered, belonging to 23 families, 27 genera and 29 species. The most abundant species were Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus (9.65 %), Macrobrachium vollenhoveni (7.94 %), Ethmalosa fimbriata (7.12 %), Elops lacerta (6.96 %), Cynoglossus browni (6.17 %), Gobioides broussonnetii (5.69 %), Sphyraena piscatorum (5.39 %), Polydactylus quadrifilis (5.06 %), and Mugil cephalus (4.91 %). There were seasonal variations in species occurrence and abundance. Marine fishes were found in dry season.. Freshwater fishes were more during the wet season. There are marine and freshwater fishes that have euryhaline characteristics and have adapted to the lagoon environment such that they were encountered both in dry and wet seasons.

Keywords: fish check list, species occurrence, abundance, ecological importance

Procedia PDF Downloads 486

Authors: M. Asato, C. Liu, N. Fujima, T. Hoshino, Y. Chen, T. Mohri

Abstract:

We study the temperature dependence of the interaction energies (IEs) of X (=Ru, Rh) impurities in Pd, due to the Fermi-Dirac (FD) distribution and the thermal vibration effect by the Debye-Grüneisen model. The n-body (n=2~4) IEs among X impurities in Pd, being used to calculate the internal energies in the free energies of the Pd-rich PdX alloys, are determined uniquely and successively from the lower-order to higher-order, by the full-potential Korringa-Kohn-Rostoker Green’s function method (FPKKR), combined with the generalized gradient approximation in the density functional theory. We found that the temperature dependence of IEs due to the FD distribution, being usually neglected, is very important to reproduce the X-concentration dependence of the observed solvus temperatures of the Pd-rich PdX (X=Ru, Rh) alloys.

Keywords: full-potential KKR-green’s function method, Fermi-Dirac distribution, GGA, phase diagram of Pd-rich PdX (X=Ru, Rh) alloys, thermal vibration effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Leanda Denise Mason, Philip William Bateman, Grant Wardell-Johnson

Abstract:

Ecological traps attract biota to low-quality habitats. Landscape traps are zones caught in a vortex of spiraling degradation. Here, we demonstrate how short-range endemic traits may make such taxa vulnerable to ecological and landscape traps. Three short-range endemic mygalomorph spider species were used in this study. Mygalomorphs can be long-lived ( > 40 years) and select sites for permanent burrows in their early dispersal phase. Spiderlings from two species demonstrated choice for microhabitats that correspond to where adults typically occur. An invasive veldt grass microhabitat was selected almost exclusively by spiderlings of the third species. Habitat dominated by veldt grass has lower prey diversity and abundance than undisturbed habitats and therefore acts as an ecological trap for this species. Furthermore, as a homogenising force, veldt grass can spread to form a landscape trap in naturally heterogeneous ecosystems. Selection of specialised microhabitats of short-range endemics may explain high extinction rates in old, stable landscapes undergoing (human-induced) rapid change.

Keywords: biotic homogenization, invasive species, mygalomorph, short-range endemic

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Zhenfeng Xie

Abstract:

Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality in infants and young children worldwide, especially in developing countries. Enterovirus(EVs) have been identified in patients with AGE in many countries around the world, and some studies have revealed that EV infection is associated with gastrointestinal symptoms and plays a role in AGE. As a potential causative pathogen of AGE in humans, continuous detection and identification of EVs in pediatric patients with AGE is needed. In this study, we aimed to investigate the prevalence, seasonal distribution, and molecular characteristics of EVs circulating in pediatric patients with AGE in Thailand from 2019 to 2022. A total of 1422 stool specimens were collected for this study. RT-PCR amplification of the 5'UTR was used to screen for EV positive samples. EV genotyping was determined based on nucleotide sequence and phylogenetic analysis of the VP1 sequences. EV prevalence in pediatric AGE patients was 8.3% (118 out of 1,422). Among these, 35.6% of EV infection cases were caused by species A, followed by species C and B (33.1% and 30.5%, respectively). A total of 26 EV genotypes were identified in this study. Poliovirus 3 and coxsackievirus A2 were the predominant genotypes detected(14% and 13%, respectively). EV was detected all year round with higher prevalence between July and December. In summary, this study reports EV's prevalence and genotype diversity in pediatric patients with AGE in Thailand during 2019-2022.

Keywords: enterovirus, epidemiology, acute gastroenteritis, genotype

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Yanto Santosa, Catharina Yudea

Abstract:

The rapid growth of oil palm industry in Indonesia raised many negative accusations from various parties, who said that oil palm plantation is damaging the environment and biodiversity, including birds. Since research on oil palm plantation impacts on bird diversity is still limited, this study needs to be developed in order to gain further learning and understanding. Data on bird diversity were collected in March 2018 in KJNP Estate, Riau Province using strip transect method on five different land cover types (young, intermediate, and old growth of oil palm plantation, high conservation value area, and crops field or the baseline). The observations were conducted simultaneously, with three repetitions. The result shows that the baseline has 19 species of birds and land cover after the oil palm plantation has 39 species. HCV (high conservation value) area has the highest increase in diversity value. Oil palm plantation has changed the composition of bird species. The highest similarity index is shown by young growth oil palm land cover with total score 0.65, meanwhile the lowest similarity index with total score 0.43 is shown by HCV area. Overall, the existence of oil palm plantation made a positive impact by increasing bird species diversity, with total 23 species gained and 3 species lost.

Keywords: bird diversity, crops field, impact of oil palm plantation, KJNP estate

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Murat Zencirkiran, Nilufer Seyidoglu Akdeniz, Elvan Ender Altay, Zeynep Pirselimoglu Batman

Abstract:

Monumental trees make an important contribution to the cultural interaction between societies. At the same time, monument trees, which are considered as symbols of some beliefs, are living beings that are transmitted from generation to generation. Mystical, folkloric and dimensional aspects of our cultural heritage and the link between the past and present, the memorial trees of the generations of the stories conveyed the story of the legends at the same time with the aesthetic features of the objects attract attention. There are many monumental trees that witness historical processes in Bursa, which is a land of very different cultures from the Prusias (BC 232-192). Within this scope, monumental trees located within the boundaries of Bursa province and their contribution to urban culture were evaluated. Monument plane trees recorded in Bursa and its districts were determined by the Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, the Governorship of Bursa, the Provincial Directorate of Environment and Urbanism, the Directorate of Protection of Natural Assets, and these trees were examined in situ. As a result of the inspections made, the monument trees living today are classified according to their species. Within the scope of the study, it was determined that there were 1001 monumental tree species in different species within the boundaries of Bursa province. 71.83% of the recorded species were Platanus species and 11.79% were Pinus species. On the other hand, the stories about the contribution of cultural landscapes to the examples of living or now-disappearing examples of Bursa history from these monumental trees have been compiled and presented in the study.

Keywords: Bursa, cultural landscape, landscape, monumental trees

Procedia PDF Downloads 429

Authors: Santhita Tungkajiwangkoon, Yoshikazu Hoshi

Abstract:

Three Japaneses Drosera species are the good model to study genome organization with highly specialized morphological group for insect trapping, and has revealed anti-inflammatory, and antibacterial effects, so there must be a reason for botanists are so appealing in these plants. Cytology and Flow cytometry were used to investigate the genetic stability and ploidy estimation in three related species. The cytological and Flow cytometry analysis were done in Drosera rotundifolia L., Drosera spatulata Labill and Drosera tokaiensis. The cytological studies by fluorescence staining (DAPI) showed that D. tokaiensis was an alloploid (2n=6x=60, hexaploid) which is a natural hybrid polyploids of D. rotundifolia and D. spatulata. D. rotundifolia was a diploid with the middle size of metaphase chromosomes (2n=2x=20) as a paternal origin and D. spatulata was a tetraploid with small size of metaphase chromosome (2n=4x=40) as a maternal origin. We confirmed by Flow cytometry analysis to determine the ploidy level and DNA content of the plants. The 2C-DNA values of D. rotundiflolia were 2.8 pg, D. spatulata was 1.6 pg and D. tokaiensis was 3.9 pg. However, 2C- DNA values of D. tokaiensis should be related from their parents but in the present study the 2C-DNA values of D. tokaiensis was no relation from the theoretical of hybrids representing additive parental. Possibility of D. tokaiensis is a natural hybrid, which is also hybridization in natural evolution can cause the genome reduction in plant.

Keywords: drosera, hybrid, cytology, flow cytometry

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

Abstract:

A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

Abstract:

The traditional bio-economic method for fisheries modeling uses some estimate of the growth parameters and the system carrying capacity from a biological model for the population dynamics (usually a logistic population growth model) which is then analyzed as a traditional production function. The stock dynamic is transformed into a revenue function and then compared with the extraction costs to estimate the maximum economic yield. In this paper, the logistic population growth model for the population is combined with a forecast of the abundance and location of the stock by using a generalized additive model approach. The paper focuses on the Chilean hake population. This method allows for the incorporation of climatic variables and the interaction with other marine species, which in turn will increase the reliability of the estimates and generate better extraction paths for different conservation objectives, such as the maximum biological yield or the maximum economic yield.

Keywords: bio-economic, fisheries, GAM, production

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Fadime Eroglu

Abstract:

Acanthamoeba genus belongs to kingdom protozoa, and it is known as free-living amoebae. Acanthamoeba genus has been isolated from human bodies, swimming pools, bottled mineral water, contact lens solutions, dust, and soil. The members of the genus Acanthamoeba causes Acanthamoeba Keratitis which is a painful sight-threatening disease of the eyes. In recent years, the prevalence of Acanthamoeba keratitis has been high rate reported. The eight different Acanthamoeba species are known to be effective in Acanthamoeba keratitis. These species are Acanthamoeba castellanii, Acanthamoeba polyphaga, Acanthamoeba griffini, Acanthamoeba hatchetti, Acanthamoeba culbertsoni and Acanhtamoeba rhysodes. The conventional diagnosis of Acanthamoeba Keratitis has relied on cytological preparations and growth of Acanthamoeba in culture. However molecular methods such as real-time PCR has been found to be more sensitive. The real-time PCR has now emerged as an effective method for more rapid testing for the diagnosis of infectious disease in decade. Therefore, a real-time PCR assay for the detection of Acanthamoeba keratitis and Acanthamoeba species have been developed in this study. The 18S rRNA sequences from Acanthamoeba species were obtained from National Center for Biotechnology Information and sequences were aligned with MEGA 6 programme. Primers and probe were designed using Custom Primers-OligoPerfectTMDesigner (ThermoFisherScientific, Waltham, MA, USA). They were also assayed for hairpin formation and degree of primer-dimer formation with Multiple Primer Analyzer ( ThermoFisherScientific, Watham, MA, USA). The eight different ATCC Acanthamoeba species were obtained, and DNA was extracted using the Qiagen Mini DNA extraction kit (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany). The DNA of Acanthamoeba species were analyzed using newly designed primer and probe set in real-time PCR assay. The early definitive laboratory diagnosis of Acanthamoeba Keratitis and the rapid initiation of suitable therapy is necessary for clinical prognosis. The results of the study have been showed that new primer and probes could be used for detection and distinguish for Acanthamoeba species. These new developing methods are helpful for diagnosis of Acanthamoeba Keratitis.

Keywords: Acathamoeba Keratitis, Acanthamoeba species, fast diagnosis, Real-Time PCR

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Duangchai Sookchaloem, Sutida Maneeanakekul

Abstract:

Araceous plant or Araceae is a monocotyledon family having numerous potential useful plants. Two hundred and ten species of Araceae were reported in Thailand, of which 43 species were reported as threatened plants. Fifty percent of endemic status and rare status plants were recorded in limestone areas. Currently, these areas are seriously threatened by land-use changes. The study on taxonomy of Araceous plants was carried out in Lop Buri and Saraburi limestone mountains from February 2011 to May 2015. The purposes of this study were to study species diversity, taxonomic character and ecological habitat. 55 specimens collected from various limestone areas including Pra Phut Tabat National forest (Pra Phut Tabat Mountain, Khao Pra Phut Tabat Noi Mountains, Wat Thum Krabog Mountain), Tab Khwang and Muak Lek Natinal forest (Pha Lad mountain, and Muak Lek waterfall) in Saraburi province ,and Wang Plaeng Ta Muang and Lumnarai National forest (Wat Thum chang phuk mountain), Panead National forest (Wat Khao Samo Khon Mountain), Lan Ta Ridge National forest (Khao Wong Prachan mountain, Wat Pa Chumchon) in Lop Buri province. Twenty species of Araceous plants were identified using characteristics of underground stem, phyllotaxis and leaf blade, spathe and spadix. Species list are Aglaonema cochinchinense, A. simplex, Alocasia acuminata, Amorphophallus paeoniifolius, A. albispathus, A. saraburiensis, A. pseudoharmandii, Pycnospatha arietina, Hapaline kerri, Lasia spinosa, Pothos scandens, Typhonium laoticum, T. orbifolium, T. saraburiense, T. trilobatum, T. sp.1, T. sp. 2, Cryptocoryne crispatula var. balansae, Scindapsus sp., and Rhaphidophora peepla. Five species are new locality records. One species (Typhonium sp.1) is considered as a new species. Seven species were reported as threatened plants in Thailand Red Data Book. Taxonomic features were used for key to species constructions. Araceous specimens were found in mixed deciduous forests, dry evergreen forests with 50-470 m. elevation. New ecological habitat of Typhonium laoticum, T. orbifolium, and T. saraburiense were reported in this study.

Keywords: ecology, limestone mountains, Lopburi and Saraburi provinces, species diversity, taxonomic character

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Safia Hocine, Djamil Aïssani

Abstract:

Risk models, recently studied in the literature, are becoming increasingly complex. It is rare to find explicit analytical relations to calculate the ruin probability. Indeed, the stability issue occurs naturally in ruin theory, when parameters in risk cannot be estimated than with uncertainty. However, in most cases, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probability. Hence, the interest to obtain explicit stability bounds for these probabilities in different risk models. In this paper, we interest to the stability bounds of the univariate classical risk model established using the regenerative processes approach. By adopting an algorithmic approach, we implement this approximation and determine numerically the bounds of ruin probability in the case of large claims (heavy-tailed distribution).

Keywords: heavy-tailed distribution, large claims, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

Abstract:

The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.

Keywords: generalized autoregressive score model, South Africa, stock returns, time-varying

Procedia PDF Downloads 502

Authors: Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ahmadur Rahman, Ariful Islam

Abstract:

The major assumption in accelerated life tests (ALT) is that the mathematical model relating the lifetime of a test unit and the stress are known or can be assumed. In some cases, such life–stress relationships are not known and cannot be assumed, i.e. ALT data cannot be extrapolated to use condition. So, in such cases, partially accelerated life test (PALT) is a more suitable test to be performed for which tested units are subjected to both normal and accelerated conditions. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests using progressive failure-censored hybrid data with random removals. The life data of the units under test is considered to follow exponential life distribution. The removals from the test are assumed to have binomial distributions. The point and interval maximum likelihood estimations are obtained for unknown distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. An optimum test plan is developed using the D-optimality criterion. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: binomial distribution, d-optimality, multiple censoring, optimal design, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Hejun Guo, Shenghua Liu

Abstract:

Five palm oil ether monoesters utilized as novel biodiesels were synthesized and structurally identified in the paper. Investigation was made on the effect of ether species on physicochemical properties of the palm oil ether monoesters. The results showed that density, kinematic viscosity, smoke point, and solidifying point increase linearly with their CH2 group number in certain relationships. Cetane number is enhanced whereas heat value decreases linearly with CH2 group number. In addition, the influencing regularities of volumetric content of the palm oil ether monoesters on the fuel properties were also studied when the ether monoesters are used as diesel fuel additives.

Keywords: biodiesel, palm oil ether monoester, ether species, physicochemical property

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: Zeleke Ayalew Alemu

Abstract:

Indian Ocean and the Nile River play significant roles in shaping the hydrological and ecological systems of the regions they traverse. This study explores the interlinkages and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile River, highlighting key factors such as water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity. The Indian Ocean serves as a major source of moisture for the Nile River, contributing to its annual flood cycle and sustaining the river's ecosystem. The Indian Ocean's monsoon winds influence the amount of rainfall received in East Africa, which directly impacts the Nile's water levels. These monsoonal patterns create a vital connection between the Indian Ocean and the Nile, affecting agricultural productivity, freshwater availability, and overall river health. The Indian Ocean also influences the nutrient levels in the Nile River. Coastal upwelling driven by oceanic currents brings nutrient-rich waters from the depths of the ocean to the surface. These nutrients are transported by ocean currents towards the Red Sea and subsequently enter the Nile. This influx of nutrients supports the growth of plankton, which forms the basis of the river's food web and sustains various aquatic species. Additionally, the Indian Ocean's climate patterns, such as El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole events, exert influence on the Nile River basin. El Niño, for example, can result in drought conditions, reduced precipitation, and altered river flows, impacting agricultural activities and water resource management along the Nile. The Indian Ocean Dipole events can influence the rainfall distribution in East Africa, further impacting the Nile's water levels and ecosystem dynamics. The Indian Ocean's biodiversity is interconnected with the Nile River's ecological system. Many species that inhabit the Indian Ocean, such as migratory birds and marine mammals, migrate along the Nile River basin, utilizing its resources for feeding and breeding purposes. The health of the Indian Ocean's ecosystem thus indirectly affects the biodiversity and ecological balance of the Nile River. Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of the Nile River. Its influence on water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity highlights the complex interdependencies between these two important water bodies. Understanding the interconnectedness and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile is essential for effective water resource management and conservation efforts in the region.

Keywords: water, management, environment, planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Ezzat Mohamed El-Amin

Abstract:

Mapping the earthquake-size distribution in various tectonic regimes on a local to regional scale reveals statistically significant variations in the range of at least 0.4 to 2.0 for the b-value in the frequency-magnitude distribution. We map the earthquake frequency–magnitude distribution (b value) as a function of depth in the Reservoir Triggered Seismicity (RTS) region in Kalabsha region, in south Egypt. About 1680 well-located events recorded during 1981–2014 in the Kalabsha region are selected for the analysis. The earthquake data sets are separated in 5 km zones from 0 to 25 km depth. The result shows a systematic decrease in b value up to 12 km followed by an increase. The increase in b value is interpreted to be caused by the presence of fluids. We also investigate the spatial distribution of b value with depth. Significant variations in the b value are detected, with b ranging from b 0.7 to 1.19. Low b value areas at 5 km depth indicate localized high stresses which are favorable for future rupture.

Keywords: seismicity, frequency-magnitude, b-value, earthquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 560

Authors: Guanhua Zhou, Zhongqi Ma

Abstract:

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in wetlands can absorb nitrogen and phosphorus effectively to prevent the eutrophication of water. It is feasible to monitor the distribution of SAV through remote sensing, but for the reason of weak vegetation signals affected by water body, traditional terrestrial vegetation indices are not applicable. This paper aims at constructing SAV index to enhance the vegetation signals and distinguish SAV from water body. The methodology is as follows: (1) select the bands sensitive to the vegetation parameters based on global sensitivity analysis of SAV canopy radiative transfer model; (2) take the soil line concept as reference, analyze the distribution of SAV and water reflectance simulated by SAV canopy model and semi-analytical water model in the two-dimensional space built by different sensitive bands; (3)select the band combinations which have better separation performance between SAV and water, and use them to build the SAVI indices in the form of normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI); (4)analyze the sensitivity of indices to the water and vegetation parameters, choose the one more sensitive to vegetation parameters. It is proved that index formed of the bands with central wavelengths in 705nm and 842nm has high sensitivity to chlorophyll content in leaves while it is less affected by water constituents. The model simulation shows a general negative, little correlation of SAV index with increasing water depth. Moreover, the index enhances capabilities in separating SAV from water compared to NDVI. The SAV index is expected to have potential in parameter inversion of wetland remote sensing.

Keywords: global sensitivity analysis, radiative transfer model, submerged aquatic vegetation, vegetation indices

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Jeongyeob Hong, Myeonghoon Park, Taeson Yoon

Abstract:

After the advent of Achaeans which utilize different metabolism pathway and contain conspicuously different cellular structure, they have been recognized as possible materials for developing quality of human beings. Among diverse Achaeans, in this paper, we compared 16s RNA Sequences of four different species of Thermococcus: Achaeans genus specialized in sulfur-dealing metabolism. Four Species, Barophilus, Kodakarensis, Hydrothermalis, and Onnurineus, live near the hydrothermal vent that emits extreme amount of sulfur and heat. By comparing ribosomal sequences of aforementioned four species, we found similarities in their sequences and expressed protein, enabling us to expect that certain ribosomal sequence or proteins are vital for their survival. Apriori algorithms and Decision Tree were used. for comparison.

Keywords: Achaeans, Thermococcus, apriori algorithm, decision tree

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Anyimc, C. J. Aneke, J. O. Orji, O. Nworie, U. C. C. Egbule

Abstract:

The microbial examination and antimicrobial susceptibility profile of microorganism isolated from the salt mining site in Ebonyi state were evaluated in the present study using a standard microbiological technique. A total of 300 samples were randomly collected in three sample groups (A, B, and C) of 100 each. Isolation, Identification and characterization of organization present on the soil samples were determined by culturing, gram-staining and biochemical technique. The result showed the following organisms were isolated with their frequency as follow: Bacillus species (37.3%) and Staphylococcus species(23.5%) had the highest frequency in the whole Sample group A and B while Klebsiella specie (15.7%), Pseudomonas species(13.7%), and Erwinia species (9.8%) had the least. Rhizopus species (42.0%) and Aspergillus species (26.0%) were the highest fungi isolated, followed by Penicillum species (20.0%) while Mucor species (4.0%), and Fusarium species (8.0%) recorded the least. Sample group C showed high microbial population of all the microbial isolates when compared to sample group A and B. Disc diffusion method was used to determine the susceptibility of isolated bacteria to various antibiotics (oxfloxacin, pefloxacin, ciprorex, augumentin, gentamycin, ciproflox, septrin, ampicillin), while agar well diffusion method was used to determine the susceptibility of isolated fungi to some antifungal drugs (metronidazole, ketoconazole, itraconazole fluconazole). The antibacterial activity of the antibiotics used showed that ciproflux has the best inhibitory effect on all the test bacteria. Ketoconazole showed the highest inhibitory effect on the fungal isolates, followed by itraconazole, while metronidazole and fluconazole showed the least inhibitory effect on the entire test fungal isolates. Hence, the multiple drug resistance of most isolates to appropriate drugs of choice are of great public health concern and cells for periodic monitoring of antibiograms to detect possible changing patterns. Microbes isolated in the salt mining site can also be used as a source of gene(s) that can increase salt tolerance in different crop species through genetic engineering.

Keywords: microorganisms, antibacterial, antifungal, resistance, salt mining site, Ebonyi State

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Ehan Sabah Shukri, Wirachman Wisnoe

Abstract:

The influence of twist arrangement on the temperature distribution in an annular diffuser fitted with twisted rectangular hub is investigated. Different pitches (Y = 120 mm, 100 mm, 80 mm, and 60 mm) for the twist arrangements are simulated to be compared. The geometry of the annular diffuser and the inlet condition for the hub arrangements are kept constant. The result reveals that using twisted rectangular hub insert with different pitches will force the temperature to distribute in a circular direction. However, temperature distribution will be enhanced with the length pitch increases.

Keywords: numerical simulation, twist arrangement, annular diffuser, temperature distribution, swirl flow, pitches

Procedia PDF Downloads 411

Authors: Debraj Adhikari, Resham Bahadur Thapa, Samudra Lal Joshi, Jason Jinping Du, Sundar Tiwari

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to keep a record of fruit fly species (Tephritidae: Diptera) in the sweet orange orchards of Sindhuli district, Nepal. Male fruit fly species were trapped and collected fortnightly using para-pheromone lures (methyl eugenol and cue lure) in Steiner traps at 25 orchards starting in March 2019 and continuing until February 2021. During the monitoring period, there was a significant variation in the occurrence of the fruit fly species. Fruit flies were captured in greater numbers during warm and rainy months (June, July, August, September) than during dry and winter months (December, January, February). Higher numbers of fruit flies were trapped in methyl eugenol than cue lure traps. Bactrocera dorsalis, B. zonata were major fruit fly species trapped in the methyl eugenol trap. Whereas, Zeugodacus tau, Z. cucurbitae, Z. scutellaris, and Dacus longicornis were major fruit fly species trapped in the cue lure trap. The findings of this study could be used to develop a long-term pest management strategy for the agro-ecological system.

Keywords: bactrocera, cue lure, methyl eugenol, monitoring, zeugodacus

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

This paper is to compare the parameter estimation of the mean in normal distribution by Maximum Likelihood (ML), Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The ML estimator is estimated by the average of data, the Bayes method is considered from the prior distribution to estimate Bayes estimator, and MCMC estimator is approximated by Gibbs sampling from posterior distribution. These methods are also to estimate a parameter then the hypothesis testing is used to check a robustness of the estimators. Data are simulated from normal distribution with the true parameter of mean 2, and variance 4, 9, and 16 when the sample sizes is set as 10, 20, 30, and 50. From the results, it can be seen that the estimation of MLE, and MCMC are perceivably different from the true parameter when the sample size is 10 and 20 with variance 16. Furthermore, the Bayes estimator is estimated from the prior distribution when mean is 1, and variance is 12 which showed the significant difference in mean with variance 9 at the sample size 10 and 20.

Keywords: Bayes method, Markov chain Monte Carlo method, maximum likelihood method, normal distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 357