Search results for: conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 24062

Search results for: conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model

23492 Theoretical Model of a Flat Plate Solar Collector Integrated with Phase Change Material

Authors: Mouna Hamed, Ammar B. Brahim

Abstract:

The objective of this work was to develop a theoretical model to study the dynamic thermal behavior of a flat plate solar collector integrated with a phase change material (PCM). The PCM acted as a heat source for the solar system during low intensity solar radiation and night. The energy balance equations for the various components of the collector as well as for the PCM were formulated and numerically solved using MATLAB computational program. The effect of natural convection on heat during the melting process was taken into account by using an effective thermal conductivity. The model was used to investigate the effect of inlet water temperature, water mass flow rate, and PCM thickness on the outlet water temperature and the melt fraction during charging and discharging modes. A comparison with a collector without PCM was made. Results showed that charging and discharging processes of PCM have six stages. The adding of PCM caused a decrease in temperature during charge and an increase during discharge. The rise was most enhanced for higher inlet water temperature, PCM thickness and for lower mass flow rate. Analysis indicated that the complete melting time was shorter than the solidification time due to the high heat transfer coefficient during melting. The increases in PCM height and mass flow rate were not linear with the melting and solidification times.

Keywords: thermal energy storage, phase change material, melting, solidification

Procedia PDF Downloads 347
23491 Evaluation of Turbulence Modelling of Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Flow in a Venturi

Authors: Mengke Zhan, Cheng-Gang Xie, Jian-Jun Shu

Abstract:

A venturi flowmeter is a common device used in multiphase flow rate measurement in the upstream oil and gas industry. Having a robust computational model for multiphase flow in a venturi is desirable for understanding the gas-liquid and fluid-pipe interactions and predicting pressure and phase distributions under various flow conditions. A steady Eulerian-Eulerian framework is used to simulate upward gas-liquid flow in a vertical venturi. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements of venturi differential pressure and chord-averaged gas holdup in the venturi throat section. The choice of turbulence model is nontrivial in the multiphase flow modelling in a venturi. The performance cross-comparison of the k-ϵ model, Reynolds stress model (RSM) and shear-stress transport (SST) k-ω turbulence model is made in the study. In terms of accuracy and computational cost, the SST k-ω turbulence model is observed to be the most efficient.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), gas-liquid flow, turbulence modelling, venturi

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23490 Sensitivity of Steindachneridion parahybae Mature Oocytes versus Embryos at Low Temperature

Authors: Tais Silva Lopes, Danilo Caneppele, Elizabeth Romagosa

Abstract:

Surubim-do-Paraíba, Steindachneridion parahybae is a species of South American fish in critical conditions of extinction. Researches have been developed with the objective of conserving the biological material of this species. We evaluated the cooling of mature oocytes in the cryoprotective solutions containing the following alcohols: methanol, Propylene glycol and DMSO, each at concentrations of 1M, 2M and 4M, totaling nine treatments. After being submitted to treatments, the oocytes were maintained for 120 minutes in cooling to -5.52±2.58⁰C. A sample of oocytes was submitted to negative control (NC), kept in 90% L-15 solution, and positive control (PC), fertilized and taken directly to the incubator. Fertilization and hatching rates were evaluated. In order to compare the sensitivity of oocytes to embryos of the same species, the embryos maintained as CP in the previous assay were used in the free-flow stage (about 22 hours post fertilization) and submitted to the same treatments (prepared in distilled water) and also cooled for 120 min. The evaluation was done by the hatch rate. There was no fertilization rate of the oocytes submitted to the cooling with propylene glycol; the other cryoprotectants presented values of at most 3.7% of fertilization (Methanol 1M), and no treatment completed development until hatching. The cooled embryos had a significant percentage of normal larvae in all treatments, but inversely proportional to the increase in the concentration of the alcohols. DMSO 1M was the most promising treatment for embryo cooling, with 41.7% ± 20.2 of normal larvae, while mature oocytes were highly sensitive to cold.

Keywords: cryoconservation, cooling, embryos, freezing, oocytes, south American fish

Procedia PDF Downloads 242
23489 Piracy Killed the Radio Star: A System Archetype Analysis of Digital Music Theft

Authors: Marton Gergely

Abstract:

Digital experience goods, such as music and video, are readily available and easily accessible through a sundry of illegal mediums. Furthermore, the rate of music theft has been increasing at a seemingly unstoppable rate. Instead of studying the effect of copyright infringement on affected shareholders, this paper aims to examine the overall impact that digital music piracy has on society as a whole. Through a systems dynamics approach, an archetype is built to model the behavior of both legal and illegal music users. Additionally, the effects over time are considered. The conceptual model suggests that if piracy continues to grow at the current pace, industry shareholders will eventually lose the motivation to supply new music. In turn, this tragedy would affect not only the illegal players, but legal consumers as well, by means of a decrease in overall quality of life.

Keywords: music piracy, illegal downloading, tragedy of the commons, system archetypes

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23488 Optimization Model for Support Decision for Maximizing Production of Mixed Fruit Tree Farms

Authors: Andrés I. Ávila, Patricia Aros, César San Martín, Elizabeth Kehr, Yovana Leal

Abstract:

We consider a linear programming model to help farmers to decide if it is convinient to choose among three kinds of export fruits for their future investment. We consider area, investment, water, productivitiy minimal unit, and harvest restrictions and a monthly based model to compute the average income in five years. Also, conditions on the field as area, water availability and initia investment are required. Using the Chilean costs and dollar-peso exchange rate, we can simulate several scenarios to understand the possible risks associated to this market.

Keywords: mixed integer problem, fruit production, support decision model, fruit tree farms

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23487 Different Data-Driven Bivariate Statistical Approaches to Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (Uzundere, Erzurum, Turkey)

Authors: Azimollah Aleshzadeh, Enver Vural Yavuz

Abstract:

The main goal of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps using different data-driven bivariate statistical approaches; namely, entropy weight method (EWM), evidence belief function (EBF), and information content model (ICM), at Uzundere county, Erzurum province, in the north-eastern part of Turkey. Past landslide occurrences were identified and mapped from an interpretation of high-resolution satellite images, and earlier reports as well as by carrying out field surveys. In total, 42 landslide incidence polygons were mapped using ArcGIS 10.4.1 software and randomly split into a construction dataset 70 % (30 landslide incidences) for building the EWM, EBF, and ICM models and the remaining 30 % (12 landslides incidences) were used for verification purposes. Twelve layers of landslide-predisposing parameters were prepared, including total surface radiation, maximum relief, soil groups, standard curvature, distance to stream/river sites, distance to the road network, surface roughness, land use pattern, engineering geological rock group, topographical elevation, the orientation of slope, and terrain slope gradient. The relationships between the landslide-predisposing parameters and the landslide inventory map were determined using different statistical models (EWM, EBF, and ICM). The model results were validated with landslide incidences, which were not used during the model construction. In addition, receiver operating characteristic curves were applied, and the area under the curve (AUC) was determined for the different susceptibility maps using the success (construction data) and prediction (verification data) rate curves. The results revealed that the AUC for success rates are 0.7055, 0.7221, and 0.7368, while the prediction rates are 0.6811, 0.6997, and 0.7105 for EWM, EBF, and ICM models, respectively. Consequently, landslide susceptibility maps were classified into five susceptibility classes, including very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Additionally, the portion of construction and verification landslides incidences in high and very high landslide susceptibility classes in each map was determined. The results showed that the EWM, EBF, and ICM models produced satisfactory accuracy. The obtained landslide susceptibility maps may be useful for future natural hazard mitigation studies and planning purposes for environmental protection.

Keywords: entropy weight method, evidence belief function, information content model, landslide susceptibility mapping

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23486 Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation of Gas-Liquid Phase Stirred Tank

Authors: Thiyam Tamphasana Devi, Bimlesh Kumar

Abstract:

A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) technique has been applied to simulate the gas-liquid phase in double stirred tank of Rushton impeller. Eulerian-Eulerian model was adopted to simulate the multiphase with standard correlation of Schiller and Naumann for drag co-efficient. The turbulence was modeled by using standard k-ε turbulence model. The present CFD model predicts flow pattern, local gas hold-up, and local specific area. It also predicts local kLa (mass transfer rate) for single impeller. The predicted results were compared with experimental and CFD results of published literature. The predicted results are slightly over predicted with the experimental results; however, it is in reasonable agreement with other simulated results of published literature.

Keywords: Eulerian-Eulerian, gas-hold up, gas-liquid phase, local mass transfer rate, local specific area, Rushton Impeller

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23485 On the Development of a Homogenized Earthquake Catalogue for Northern Algeria

Authors: I. Grigoratos, R. Monteiro

Abstract:

Regions with a significant percentage of non-seismically designed buildings and reduced urban planning are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In this context, the project ‘Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria’ (ITERATE) aims at seismic risk mitigation in Algeria. Past earthquakes in North Algeria caused extensive damages, e.g. the El Asnam 1980 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 and Boumerdes 2003 Mw 6.8 earthquakes. This paper will address a number of proposed developments and considerations made towards a further improvement of the component of seismic hazard. In specific, an updated earthquake catalog (until year 2018) is compiled, and new conversion equations to moment magnitude are introduced. Furthermore, a network-based method for the estimation of the spatial and temporal distribution of the minimum magnitude of completeness is applied. We found relatively large values for Mc, due to the sparse network, and a nonlinear trend between Mw and body wave (mb) or local magnitude (ML), which are the most common scales reported in the region. Lastly, the resulting b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution is sensitive to the declustering method.

Keywords: conversion equation, magnitude of completeness, seismic events, seismic hazard

Procedia PDF Downloads 166
23484 Consumer Health Risk Assessment from Some Heavy Metal Bioaccumulation in Common Carp (Cyprinus Carpio) from Lake Koka, Ethiopia

Authors: Mathewos Temesgen, Lemi Geleta

Abstract:

Lake Koka is one of the Ethiopian Central Rift Valleys lakes, where the absorbance of domestic, agricultural, and industrial waste from the nearby industrial and agro-industrial activities is very common. The aim of this research was to assess the heavy metal bioaccumulation in edible parts of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in Lake Koka and the health risks associated with the dietary intake of the fish. Three sampling sites were selected randomly for primary data collection. Physicochemical parameters (pH, Total Dissolved Solids, Dissolved Oxygen and Electrical Conductivity) were measured in-situ. Four heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Pb, and Zn) in water and bio-accumulation in the edible parts of the fish were analyzed with flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The mean values of TDS, EC, DO and pH of the lake water were 458.1 mg/L, 905.7 µ s/cm, 7.36 mg/L, and 7.9, respectively. The mean concentrations of Zn, Cr, and Cd in the edible part of fish were also 0.18 mg/kg, ND-0.24 mg/kg, and ND-0.03 mg/kg, respectively. Pb was, however, not identified. The amount of Cr in the examined fish muscle was above the level set by FAO, and the accumulation of the metals showed marked differences between sampling sites (p<0.05). The concentrations of Cd, Pb and were below the maximum permissible limit. The results also indicated that Cr has a high transfer factor value and Zn has the lowest. The carcinogenic hazard ratio values were below the threshold value (<1) for the edible parts of fish. The estimated weekly intake of heavy metals from fish muscles ranked as Cr>Zn>Cd, but the values were lower than the Reference Dose limit for metals. The carcinogenic risk values indicated a low health risk due to the intake of individual metals from fish. Furthermore, the hazard index of the edible part of fish was less than unity. Generally, the water quality is not a risk for the survival and reproduction of fish, and the heavy metal contents in the edible parts of fish exhibited low carcinogenic risk through the food chain.

Keywords: bio-accumulation, cyprinus carpio, hazard index, heavy metals, Lake Koka

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23483 Analyzing the Effects of Supply and Demand Shocks in the Spanish Economy

Authors: José M Martín-Moreno, Rafaela Pérez, Jesús Ruiz

Abstract:

In this paper we use a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) for the Spanish economy to search for a deeper characterization of the determinants of Spain’s macroeconomic fluctuations throughout the period 1970-2008. In order to do this, we distinguish between tradable and non-tradable goods to take into account the fact that the presence of non-tradable goods in this economy is one of the largest in the world. We estimate a DSGE model with supply and demand shocks (sectorial productivity, public spending, international real interest rate and preferences) using Kalman Filter techniques. We find the following results. First of all, our variance decomposition analysis suggests that 1) the preference shock basically accounts for private consumption volatility, 2) the idiosyncratic productivity shock accounts for non-tradable output volatility, and 3) the sectorial productivity shock along with the international interest rate both greatly account for tradable output. Secondly, the model closely replicates the time path observed in the data for the Spanish economy and finally, the model captures the main cyclical qualitative features of this economy reasonably well.

Keywords: business cycle, DSGE models, Kalman filter estimation, small open economy

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23482 Impact Deformation and Fracture Behaviour of Cobalt-Based Haynes 188 Superalloy

Authors: Woei-Shyan Lee, Hao-Chien Kao

Abstract:

The impact deformation and fracture behaviour of cobalt-based Haynes 188 superalloy are investigated by means of a split Hopkinson pressure bar. Impact tests are performed at strain rates ranging from 1×103 s-1 to 5×103 s-1 and temperatures between 25°C and 800°C. The experimental results indicate that the flow response and fracture characteristics of cobalt-based Haynes 188 superalloy are significantly dependent on the strain rate and temperature. The flow stress, work hardening rate and strain rate sensitivity all increase with increasing strain rate or decreasing temperature. It is shown that the impact response of the Haynes 188 specimens is adequately described by the Zerilli-Armstrong fcc model. The fracture analysis results indicate that the Haynes 188 specimens fail predominantly as the result of intensive localised shearing. Furthermore, it is shown that the flow localisation effect leads to the formation of adiabatic shear bands. The fracture surfaces of the deformed Haynes 188 specimens are characterised by dimple- and / or cleavage-like structure with knobby features. The knobby features are thought to be the result of a rise in the local temperature to a value greater than the melting point.

Keywords: Haynes 188 alloy, impact, strain rate and temperature effect, adiabatic shearing

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23481 MGAUM—Towards a Mobile Government Adoption and Utilization Model: The Case of Saudi Arabia

Authors: Mohammed Alonazi, Natalia Beloff, Martin White

Abstract:

This paper presents a proposal for a mobile government adoption and utilization model (MGAUM), which is a framework designed to increase the adoption rate of m-government services in Saudi Arabia. Recent advances in mobile technologies such are Mobile compatibilities, The development of wireless communication, mobile applications and devices are enabling governments to deliver services in new ways to citizens more efficiently and economically. In the last decade, many governments around the globe are utilizing these advances effectively to develop their next generation of e-government services. However, a low adoption rate of m-government services by citizens is a common problem in Arabian countries, including Saudi Arabia. Yet, to our knowledge, very little research has been conducted focused on understanding the factors that influence citizen adoption of these m-government services in this part of the world. A set of social, cultural and technological factors have been identified in the literature, which has led to the formulation of associated research questions and hypotheses. These hypotheses will be tested on Saudi citizens using questionnaires and interview methods based around the technology acceptance model. A key objective of the MGAUM framework is to investigate and understand Saudi citizens perception towards adoption and utilization of m-government services.

Keywords: e-government, m-government, citizen services quality, technology acceptance model, Saudi Arabia, adoption framework.

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23480 A New Nonlinear State-Space Model and Its Application

Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

Abstract:

In this work, a new nonlinear model will be introduced. The model is in the state-space form. The nonlinearity of this model is in the state equation where the state vector is multiplied by its self. This technique makes our model generalizes many famous models as Lotka-Volterra model and Lorenz model which have many applications in the real life. We will apply our new model to estimate the wind speed by using a new nonlinear estimator which suitable to work with our model.

Keywords: nonlinear systems, state-space model, Kronecker product, nonlinear estimator

Procedia PDF Downloads 691
23479 Reproduction Characteristics of Saanen Goats Raised under Intensive Conditions in Konya Province

Authors: Vahdettin Sariyel, Birol Dag

Abstract:

In this research, it is aimed to determine the effects of several environmental factors on adaptation and some yield parameters of Saanen goats reared under intensive conditions at a private farm in Konya province. Gestation rate, twins rate and litter size were evaluated as reproductive traits. Gestation rate was determined as 93.8% and 90.5% for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Twins rate was determined as 59.35 % and 70.00 % for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Litter size was 1.49 and 1.46 for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Survival rates of kids from birth to weaning at three months of age were found as 87.74 % and 98.54 % for 2011 and 2012 years respectively.

Keywords: gestation rate, reproduction, saanen, twins rate, vitality

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23478 Using Seismic and GPS Data for Hazard Estimation in Some Active Regions in Egypt

Authors: Abdel-Monem Sayed Mohamed

Abstract:

Egypt rapidly growing development is accompanied by increasing levels of standard living particular in its urban areas. However, there is a limited experience in quantifying the sources of risk management in Egypt and in designing efficient strategies to keep away serious impacts of earthquakes. From the historical point of view and recent instrumental records, there are some seismo-active regions in Egypt, where some significant earthquakes had occurred in different places. The special tectonic features in Egypt: Aswan, Greater Cairo, Red Sea and Sinai Peninsula regions are the territories of a high seismic risk, which have to be monitored by up-to date technologies. The investigations of the seismic events and interpretations led to evaluate the seismic hazard for disaster prevention and for the safety of the dense populated regions and the vital national projects as the High Dam. In addition to the monitoring of the recent crustal movements, the most powerful technique of satellite geodesy GPS are used where geodetic networks are covering such seismo-active regions. The results from the data sets are compared and combined in order to determine the main characteristics of the deformation and hazard estimation for specified regions. The final compiled output from the seismological and geodetic analysis threw lights upon the geodynamical regime of these seismo-active regions and put Aswan and Greater Cairo under the lowest class according to horizontal crustal strains classifications. This work will serve a basis for the development of so-called catastrophic models and can be further used for catastrophic risk management. Also, this work is trying to evaluate risk of large catastrophic losses within the important regions including the High Dam, strategic buildings and archeological sites. Studies on possible scenarios of earthquakes and losses are a critical issue for decision making in insurance as a part of mitigation measures.

Keywords: b-value, Gumbel distribution, seismic and GPS data, strain parameters

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23477 Computer Countenanced Diagnosis of Skin Nodule Detection and Histogram Augmentation: Extracting System for Skin Cancer

Authors: S. Zith Dey Babu, S. Kour, S. Verma, C. Verma, V. Pathania, A. Agrawal, V. Chaudhary, A. Manoj Puthur, R. Goyal, A. Pal, T. Danti Dey, A. Kumar, K. Wadhwa, O. Ved

Abstract:

Background: Skin cancer is now is the buzzing button in the field of medical science. The cyst's pandemic is drastically calibrating the body and well-being of the global village. Methods: The extracted image of the skin tumor cannot be used in one way for diagnosis. The stored image contains anarchies like the center. This approach will locate the forepart of an extracted appearance of skin. Partitioning image models has been presented to sort out the disturbance in the picture. Results: After completing partitioning, feature extraction has been formed by using genetic algorithm and finally, classification can be performed between the trained and test data to evaluate a large scale of an image that helps the doctors for the right prediction. To bring the improvisation of the existing system, we have set our objectives with an analysis. The efficiency of the natural selection process and the enriching histogram is essential in that respect. To reduce the false-positive rate or output, GA is performed with its accuracy. Conclusions: The objective of this task is to bring improvisation of effectiveness. GA is accomplishing its task with perfection to bring down the invalid-positive rate or outcome. The paper's mergeable portion conflicts with the composition of deep learning and medical image processing, which provides superior accuracy. Proportional types of handling create the reusability without any errors.

Keywords: computer-aided system, detection, image segmentation, morphology

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23476 Molecular Topology and TLC Retention Behaviour of s-Triazines: QSRR Study

Authors: Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

Abstract:

Quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) analysis was used to predict the chromatographic behavior of s-triazine derivatives by using theoretical descriptors computed from the chemical structure. Fundamental basis of the reported investigation is to relate molecular topological descriptors with chromatographic behavior of s-triazine derivatives obtained by reversed-phase (RP) thin layer chromatography (TLC) on silica gel impregnated with paraffin oil and applied ethanol-water (φ = 0.5-0.8; v/v). Retention parameter (RM0) of 14 investigated s-triazine derivatives was used as dependent variable while simple connectivity index different orders were used as independent variables. The best QSRR model for predicting RM0 value was obtained with simple third order connectivity index (3χ) in the second-degree polynomial equation. Numerical values of the correlation coefficient (r=0.915), Fisher's value (F=28.34) and root mean square error (RMSE = 0.36) indicate that model is statistically significant. In order to test the predictive power of the QSRR model leave-one-out cross-validation technique has been applied. The parameters of the internal cross-validation analysis (r2CV=0.79, r2adj=0.81, PRESS=1.89) reflect the high predictive ability of the generated model and it confirms that can be used to predict RM0 value. Multivariate classification technique, hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), has been applied in order to group molecules according to their molecular connectivity indices. HCA is a descriptive statistical method and it is the most frequently used for important area of data processing such is classification. The HCA performed on simple molecular connectivity indices obtained from the 2D structure of investigated s-triazine compounds resulted in two main clusters in which compounds molecules were grouped according to the number of atoms in the molecule. This is in agreement with the fact that these descriptors were calculated on the basis of the number of atoms in the molecule of the investigated s-triazine derivatives.

Keywords: s-triazines, QSRR, chemometrics, chromatography, molecular descriptors

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23475 Safety of Ports, Harbours, Marine Terminals: Application of Quantitative Risk Assessment

Authors: Dipak Sonawane, Sudarshan Daga, Somesh Gupta

Abstract:

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a very precise and consistent approach to defining the likelihood, consequence and severity of a major incident/accident. A variety of hazardous cargoes in bulk, such as hydrocarbons and flammable/toxic chemicals, are handled at various ports. It is well known that most of the operations are hazardous, having the potential of damaging property, causing injury/loss of life and, in some cases, the threat of environmental damage. In order to ensure adequate safety towards life, environment and property, the application of scientific methods such as QRA is inevitable. By means of these methods, comprehensive hazard identification, risk assessment and appropriate implementation of Risk Control measures can be carried out. In this paper, the authors, based on their extensive experience in Risk Analysis for ports and harbors, have exhibited how QRA can be used in practice to minimize and contain risk to tolerable levels. A specific case involving the operation for unloading of hydrocarbon at a port is presented. The exercise provides confidence that the method of QRA, as proposed by the authors, can be used appropriately for the identification of hazards and risk assessment of Ports and Terminals.

Keywords: quantitative risk assessment, hazard assessment, consequence analysis, individual risk, societal risk

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23474 Modelling the Long Rune of Aggregate Import Demand in Libya

Authors: Said Yousif Khairi

Abstract:

Being a developing economy, imports of capital, raw materials and manufactories goods are vital for sustainable economic growth. In 2006, Libya imported LD 8 billion (US$ 6.25 billion) which composed of mainly machinery and transport equipment (49.3%), raw material (18%), and food products and live animals (13%). This represented about 10% of GDP. Thus, it is pertinent to investigate factors affecting the amount of Libyan imports. An econometric model representing the aggregate import demand for Libya was developed and estimated using the bounds test procedure, which based on an unrestricted error correction model (UECM). The data employed for the estimation was from 1970–2010. The results of the bounds test revealed that the volume of imports and its determinants namely real income, consumer price index and exchange rate are co-integrated. The findings indicate that the demand for imports is inelastic with respect to income, index price level and The exchange rate variable in the short run is statistically significant. In the long run, the income elasticity is elastic while the price elasticity and the exchange rate remains inelastic. This indicates that imports are important elements for Libyan economic growth in the long run.

Keywords: import demand, UECM, bounds test, Libya

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23473 EQMamba - Method Suggestion for Earthquake Detection and Phase Picking

Authors: Noga Bregman

Abstract:

Accurate and efficient earthquake detection and phase picking are crucial for seismic hazard assessment and emergency response. This study introduces EQMamba, a deep-learning method that combines the strengths of the Earthquake Transformer and the Mamba model for simultaneous earthquake detection and phase picking. EQMamba leverages the computational efficiency of Mamba layers to process longer seismic sequences while maintaining a manageable model size. The proposed architecture integrates convolutional neural networks (CNNs), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks, and Mamba blocks. The model employs an encoder composed of convolutional layers and max pooling operations, followed by residual CNN blocks for feature extraction. Mamba blocks are applied to the outputs of BiLSTM blocks, efficiently capturing long-range dependencies in seismic data. Separate decoders are used for earthquake detection, P-wave picking, and S-wave picking. We trained and evaluated EQMamba using a subset of the STEAD dataset, a comprehensive collection of labeled seismic waveforms. The model was trained using a weighted combination of binary cross-entropy loss functions for each task, with the Adam optimizer and a scheduled learning rate. Data augmentation techniques were employed to enhance the model's robustness. Performance comparisons were conducted between EQMamba and the EQTransformer over 20 epochs on this modest-sized STEAD subset. Results demonstrate that EQMamba achieves superior performance, with higher F1 scores and faster convergence compared to EQTransformer. EQMamba reached F1 scores of 0.8 by epoch 5 and maintained higher scores throughout training. The model also exhibited more stable validation performance, indicating good generalization capabilities. While both models showed lower accuracy in phase-picking tasks compared to detection, EQMamba's overall performance suggests significant potential for improving seismic data analysis. The rapid convergence and superior F1 scores of EQMamba, even on a modest-sized dataset, indicate promising scalability for larger datasets. This study contributes to the field of earthquake engineering by presenting a computationally efficient and accurate method for simultaneous earthquake detection and phase picking. Future work will focus on incorporating Mamba layers into the P and S pickers and further optimizing the architecture for seismic data specifics. The EQMamba method holds the potential for enhancing real-time earthquake monitoring systems and improving our understanding of seismic events.

Keywords: earthquake, detection, phase picking, s waves, p waves, transformer, deep learning, seismic waves

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23472 Quantifying Multivariate Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Malaria Risk Using Graph-Based Optimization in Southern Ethiopia

Authors: Yonas Shuke Kitawa

Abstract:

Background: Although malaria incidence has substantially fallen sharply over the past few years, the rate of decline varies by district, time, and malaria type. Despite this turn-down, malaria remains a major public health threat in various districts of Ethiopia. Consequently, the present study is aimed at developing a predictive model that helps to identify the spatio-temporal variation in malaria risk by multiple plasmodium species. Methods: We propose a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model to obtain a more coherent picture of the temporally varying spatial variation in disease risk. The spatial autocorrelation in such a data set is typically modeled by a set of random effects that assign a conditional autoregressive prior distribution. However, the autocorrelation considered in such cases depends on a binary neighborhood matrix specified through the border-sharing rule. Over here, we propose a graph-based optimization algorithm for estimating the neighborhood matrix that merely represents the spatial correlation by exploring the areal units as the vertices of a graph and the neighbor relations as the series of edges. Furthermore, we used aggregated malaria count in southern Ethiopia from August 2013 to May 2019. Results: We recognized that precipitation, temperature, and humidity are positively associated with the malaria threat in the area. On the other hand, enhanced vegetation index, nighttime light (NTL), and distance from coastal areas are negatively associated. Moreover, nonlinear relationships were observed between malaria incidence and precipitation, temperature, and NTL. Additionally, lagged effects of temperature and humidity have a significant effect on malaria risk by either species. More elevated risk of P. falciparum was observed following the rainy season, and unstable transmission of P. vivax was observed in the area. Finally, P. vivax risks are less sensitive to environmental factors than those of P. falciparum. Conclusion: The improved inference was gained by employing the proposed approach in comparison to the commonly used border-sharing rule. Additionally, different covariates are identified, including delayed effects, and elevated risks of either of the cases were observed in districts found in the central and western regions. As malaria transmission operates in a spatially continuous manner, a spatially continuous model should be employed when it is computationally feasible.

Keywords: disease mapping, MSTCAR, graph-based optimization algorithm, P. falciparum, P. vivax, waiting matrix

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23471 Optimizing the Elevated Nitritation for Autotrophic/Heterotrophic Denitritation in CSTR by Treating STP Wastewater

Authors: Hammad Khan, Wookeun Bae

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to optimize and control the highly loaded and efficient nitrite production having suitability for autotrophic and heterotrophic denitritation. A lab scale CSTR for partial and full nitritation was operated to treat the livestock manure digester liquor having an ammonium concentration of ~600 mg-NH4+-N/L and biodegradable contents of ~0.35 g-COD/L. The experiments were performed at 30°C, pH: 8.0, DO: 1.5 mg/L and SRT ranging from 7-20 days. After 125 days operation, >95% nitrite buildup having the ammonium loading rate of ~3.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day was seen with almost complete ammonium conversion. On increasing the loading rate further (i-e, from 3.2-6.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day), stability of the system remained unaffected. On decreasing the pH from 8 to 7.5 and further 7.2, removal rate can be easily controlled as 95%, 75%, and even 50%. Results demonstrated that nitritation stability and desired removal rates are controlled by a balance of simultaneous inhibition by FA & FNA, pH effect and DO limitation. These parameters proved to be effective even to produce an appropriate influent for anammox. In addition, a mathematical model, identified through the occurring biological reactions, is proposed to optimize the full and partial nitritation process. The proposed model present relationship between pH, ammonium and produced nitrite for full and partial nitritation under the varying concentrations of DO, and simultaneous inhibition by FA and FNA.

Keywords: stable nitritation, high loading, autrophic denitritation, hetrotrophic denitritation

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23470 Achieving the Elevated Nitritation for Autotrophic/Heterotrophic Denitritation in CSTR by Treating STP Wastewater

Authors: Hammad Khan, Wookeun Bae

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to optimize, achieve and control the highly loaded and efficient nitrite production having suitability for autotrophic and heterotrophic denitritation. A lab scale CSTR for partial and full nitritation was operated to treat the livestock manure digester liquor having an ammonium concentration of ~600 mg-NH4+-N/L and biodegradable contents of ~0.35 g-COD/L. The experiments were performed at 30°C, pH: 8.0, DO: 1.5 mg/L and SRT ranging from 7-20 days. After 125 days operation, >95% nitrite buildup having the ammonium loading rate of ~3.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day was seen with almost complete ammonium conversion. On increasing the loading rate further (i-e, from 3.2-6.2 kg-NH4+-N/m3-day), stability of the system remained unaffected. On decreasing the pH from 8 to7.5 and further 7.2, removal rate can be easily controlled as 95%, 75%, and even 50%. Results demonstrated that nitritation stability and desired removal rates are controlled by a balance of simultaneous inhibition by FA & FNA, pH affect and DO limitation. These parameters proved to be effective even to produce an appropriate influent for anammox. In addition, a mathematical model, identified through the occurring biological reactions, is proposed to optimize the full and partial nitritation process. The proposed model present relationship between pH, ammonium and produced nitrite for full and partial nitritation under the varying concentrations of DO, and simultaneous inhibition by FA and FNA.

Keywords: stable nitritation, high loading, autrophic denitritation, CSTR

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23469 Analysis of Delamination in Drilling of Composite Materials

Authors: Navid Zarif Karimi, Hossein Heidary, Giangiacomo Minak, Mehdi Ahmadi

Abstract:

In this paper analytical model based on the mechanics of oblique cutting, linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) and bending plate theory has been presented to determine the critical feed rate causing delamination in drilling of composite materials. Most of the models in this area used LEFM and bending plate theory; hence, they can only determine the critical thrust force which is an incorporable parameter. In this model by adding cutting oblique mechanics to previous models, critical feed rate has been determined. Also instead of simplification in loading condition, actual thrust force induced by chisel edge and cutting lips on composite plate is modeled.

Keywords: composite material, delamination, drilling, thrust force

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23468 New Employee on-Boarding Program: Effective Tool for Reducing the Prevalence of Workplace Injuries/Accidents

Authors: U. Ugochukwu, J. Lee, P. Conley

Abstract:

According to a recent survey by the UT Southwestern Workplace Safety Committee, the three most common on-the-job injuries reported by workers at the medical center are musculoskeletal injuries, slip-and-fall injuries and repetitive motion injuries. Last year alone, of the 650 documented workplace injuries and accidents, 45% were seen in employees in their first-two years of employment. UT Southwestern New Employee On-Boarding program was created and modeled to follows OSHA’s model that consist of: determining if training is needed, identifying training needs, identifying goals and objectives, developing learning activities, conducting the training, evaluating program effectiveness, and improving the program. The hospital’s management best practices were recreated to limit and control workplace injuries and accidents. Regular trainings and workshops on workplace safety and compliance were initiated for new employees. Various computer workstations were evaluated and recommendations were made to reduce musculoskeletal disorders. Post exposure protocols and workers protection programs were remodeled for infectious agents and chemicals used in the hospital, and medical surveillance programs were updated, for every emerging threat, to ensure they are in compliance with the US policy, regulatory and standard setting organizations. If ignorance of specific job hazards and of proper work practices is to blame for this higher injury rate, then training will help to provide a solution. Use of this program in training activities is just one of many ways UT Southwestern complied with the OSHA standards that relate to training while enhancing the safety and health of their employees.

Keywords: ergonomics, hazard, on-boarding, surveillance, workplace

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23467 Establishing a Change Management Model for Precision Machinery Industry in Taiwan

Authors: Feng-Tsung Cheng, Shu-Li Wang, Mei-Fang Wu, , Hui-Yu Chuang

Abstract:

Due to the rapid development of modern technology, the widespread usage of the Internet makes business environment changing quickly. In order to be a leader in the global competitive market and to pursuit survive, “changing” becomes an unspoken rules need to follow for the company survival. The purpose of this paper is to build change model by using SWOT, strategy map, and balance scorecard, KPI and change management theory. The research findings indicate that organizational change plan formulated by the case company should require the employee to resist change factors and performance management system issues into consideration and must be set organizational change related programs, such as performance appraisal reward system, consulting and counseling mechanisms programs to improve motivation and reduce staff negative emotions. Then according to the model revised strategy maps and performance indicators proposed in this paper, such as strategy maps add and modify corporate culture, improve internal processes management, increase the growth rate of net income and other strategies. The performance indicators are based on strategy maps new and modified by adding net income growth rate, to achieve target production rate, manpower training achievement rates and other indicators, through amendments to achieve the company’s goal, be a leading brand of precision machinery industry.

Keywords: organizational change, SWOT analysis, strategy maps, performance indicators

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23466 Effect of Velocity Slip on Two Phase Flow in an Eccentric Annular Region

Authors: Umadevi B., Dinesh P. A., Indira. R., Vinay C. V.

Abstract:

A mathematical model is developed to study the simultaneous effects of particle drag and slip parameter on the velocity as well as rate of flow in an annular cross sectional region bounded by two eccentric cylinders. In physiological flows this phenomena can be observed in an eccentric catheterized artery with inner cylinder wall is impermeable and outer cylinder wall is permeable. Blood is a heterogeneous fluid having liquid phase consisting of plasma in which a solid phase of suspended cells and proteins. Arterial wall gets damaged due to aging and lipid molecules get deposited between damaged tissue cells. Blood flow increases towards the damaged tissues in the artery. In this investigation blood is modeled as two phase fluid as one is a fluid phase and the other is particulate phase. The velocity of the fluid phase and rate of flow are obtained by transforming eccentric annulus to concentric annulus with the conformal mapping. The formulated governing equations are analytically solved for the velocity and rate of flow. The numerical investigations are carried out by varying eccentricity parameter, slip parameter and drag parameter. Enhancement of slip parameter signifies loss of fluid then the velocity and rate of flow will be decreased. As particulate drag parameter increases then the velocity as well as rate flow decreases. Eccentricity facilitates transport of more fluid then the velocity and rate of flow increases.

Keywords: catheter, slip parameter, drag parameter, eccentricity

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23465 The Nexus between Country Risk and Exchange Rate Regimes: A Global Investigation

Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

Abstract:

Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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23464 Planning Fore Stress II: Study on Resiliency of New Architectural Patterns in Urban Scale

Authors: Amir Shouri, Fereshteh Tabe

Abstract:

Master planning and urban infrastructure’s thoughtful and sequential design strategies will play the major role in reducing the damages of natural disasters, war and or social/population related conflicts for cities. Defensive strategies have been revised during the history of mankind after having damages from natural depressions, war experiences and terrorist attacks on cities. Lessons learnt from Earthquakes, from 2 world war casualties in 20th century and terrorist activities of all times. Particularly, after Hurricane Sandy of New York in 2012 and September 11th attack on New York’s World Trade Centre (WTC) in 21st century, there have been series of serious collaborations between law making authorities, urban planners and architects and defence related organizations to firstly, getting prepared and/or prevent such activities and secondly, reduce the human loss and economic damages to minimum. This study will work on developing a model of planning for New York City, where its citizens will get minimum impacts in threat-full time with minimum economic damages to the city after the stress is passed. The main discussion in this proposal will focus on pre-hazard, hazard-time and post-hazard transformative policies and strategies that will reduce the “Life casualties” and will ease “Economic Recovery” in post-hazard conditions. This proposal is going to scrutinize that one of the key solutions in this path might be focusing on all overlaying possibilities on architectural platforms of three fundamental infrastructures, the transportation, the power related sources and defensive abilities on a dynamic-transformative framework that will provide maximum safety, high level of flexibility and fastest action-reaction opportunities in stressful periods of time. “Planning Fore Stress” is going to be done in an analytical, qualitative and quantitative work frame, where it will study cases from all over the world. Technology, Organic Design, Materiality, Urban forms, city politics and sustainability will be discussed in deferent cases in international scale. From the modern strategies of Copenhagen for living friendly with nature to traditional approaches of Indonesian old urban planning patterns, the “Iron Dome” of Israel to “Tunnels” in Gaza, from “Ultra-high-performance quartz-infused concrete” of Iran to peaceful and nature-friendly strategies of Switzerland, from “Urban Geopolitics” in cities, war and terrorism to “Design of Sustainable Cities” in the world, will all be studied with references and detailed look to analysis of each case in order to propose the most resourceful, practical and realistic solutions to questions on “New City Divisions”, “New City Planning and social activities” and “New Strategic Architecture for Safe Cities”. This study is a developed version of a proposal that was announced as winner at MoMA in 2013 in call for ideas for Rockaway after Sandy Hurricane took place.

Keywords: urban scale, city safety, natural disaster, war and terrorism, city divisions, architecture for safe cities

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23463 Parameter Estimation for the Oral Minimal Model and Parameter Distinctions Between Obese and Non-obese Type 2 Diabetes

Authors: Manoja Rajalakshmi Aravindakshana, Devleena Ghosha, Chittaranjan Mandala, K. V. Venkateshb, Jit Sarkarc, Partha Chakrabartic, Sujay K. Maity

Abstract:

Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) is the primary test used to diagnose type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a clinical setting. Analysis of OGTT data using the Oral Minimal Model (OMM) along with the rate of appearance of ingested glucose (Ra) is performed to study differences in model parameters for control and T2DM groups. The differentiation of parameters of the model gives insight into the behaviour and physiology of T2DM. The model is also studied to find parameter differences among obese and non-obese T2DM subjects and the sensitive parameters were co-related to the known physiological findings. Sensitivity analysis is performed to understand changes in parameter values with model output and to support the findings, appropriate statistical tests are done. This seems to be the first preliminary application of the OMM with obesity as a distinguishing factor in understanding T2DM from estimated parameters of insulin-glucose model and relating the statistical differences in parameters to diabetes pathophysiology.

Keywords: oral minimal model, OGTT, obese and non-obese T2DM, mathematical modeling, parameter estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 93