Search results for: climate change and conservation

Authors: Hyelim Park, Juan Martin Zorrilla

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Climate change influences very widely and in various ways ocean ecosystem functioning. The consequences of climate change on marine ecosystems are an increase in temperature and irregular behavior of some solute concentrations. These changes would affect fisheries catches in several ways. Our aim is to assess the quantitative contribution change of fishery catches along the time and express them through four environment variables: Sea Surface Temperature (SST4) and the concentrations of Chlorophyll (CHL), Particulate Inorganic Carbon (PIC) and Particulate Organic Carbon (POC) at two spatial scales: Global and the nineteen FAO Major Fishing Areas divisions. Data collection was based on the FAO FishStatJ 2014 database as well as MODIS Aqua satellite observations from 2002 to 2012. Some data had to be corrected and interpolated using some existing methods. As the results, a multivariable regression model for average Global fisheries captures contained temporal mean of SST4, standard deviation of SST4, standard deviation of CHL and standard deviation of PIC. Global vector auto-regressive (VAR) model showed that SST4 was a statistical cause of global fishery capture. To accommodate varying conditions in fishery condition and influence of climate change variables, a model was constructed for each FAO major fishing area. From the management perspective it should be recognized some limitations of the FAO marine areas division that opens to possibility to the discussion of the subdivision of the areas into smaller units. Furthermore, it should be treated that the contribution changes of fishery species and the possible environment factor for specific species at various scale levels.

Keywords: fisheries-catch, FAO FishStatJ, MODIS Aqua, sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), VAR, granger causality

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Authors: Aemro Tazeze Terefe, Mengistu K. Aredo, Abule M. Workagegnehu, Wondimagegn M. Tesfaye

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Climate-induced shocks have been shown to reduce agricultural production and cause fluctuation in output in developing countries. When livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture, climate-induced shocks translate into consumption shocks. Despite the substantial improvements in household consumption, climate-induced shocks, and other factors adversely affect consumption dynamics at the household level in Ethiopia. Therefore, household consumption dynamics in the context of climate-induced shocks help to guide resilience capacity and establish appropriate interventions and programs. The research employed three-round panel data based on the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey with spatial rainfall data to define unique measures of rainfall variability. The linear dynamic panel model results show that the lagged value of consumption, market shocks, and rainfall variability positively affected consumption dynamics. In contrast, production shocks, temperature, and amount of rainfall had a negative relationship. Coping strategies mitigate adverse climate-induced shocks on consumption aftershocks that smooth consumption over time. Support to increase the resilience capacity of households can involve efforts to make existing livelihoods and forms of production or reductions in the vulnerability of households. Therefore, government interventions are mandatory for asset accumulation agendas that support household coping strategies and respond to shocks. In addition, the dynamic linkage between consumption and significant socioeconomic and institutional factors should be taken into account to minimize the effect of climate-induced shocks on consumption dynamics.

Keywords: climate shock, Ethiopia, fixed-effect model, food security

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Authors: Pei-Chih Wu, Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Hsien-Chang Wang

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The impact of climate change to health has always been well documented. Amongst them, water-borne infectious diseases, chronic adverse effects or cancer risks due to chemical contamination in flooding or drought events are especially important in river basin. This study therefore utilizes GIS and different models to integrate demographic, land use, disaster prevention, social-economic factors, and human health assessment in the Erren River basin. Therefore, through the collecting of climatic, demographic, health surveillance, water quality and other water monitoring data, potential risks associated with the Erren River Basin are established and to understand human exposure and vulnerability in response to climate extremes. This study assesses the temporal and spatial patterns of melioidosis (2000-2015) and various cancer incidents in Tainan and Kaohsiung cities. The next step is to analyze the spatial association between diseases incidences, climatic factors, land uses, and other demographic factors by using ArcMap and GeoDa. The study results show that amongst all melioidosis cases in Taiwan, 24% cases (115) residence occurred in the Erren River basin. The relationship between the cases and in Tainan and Kaohsiung cities are associated with population density, aging indicator, and residence in Erren River basin. Risks from flooding due to heavy rainfall and fish farms in spatial lag regression are also related. Through liver cancer, the preliminary analysis in temporal and spatial pattern shows an increases pattern in annual incidence without clusters in Erren River basin. Further analysis of potential cancers connected to heavy metal contamination from water pollution in Erren River is established. The final step is to develop an assessment tool for human exposure from water contamination and vulnerability in response to climate extremes for the second year.

Keywords: climate change, health impact, health adaptation, Erren River Basin

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Authors: Bobuchi Ken-Opurum

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The impacts of climate change on urban settlements is growing. In the global south, communities are even more vulnerable and suffer there is an increased vulnerability from due to climate change disasters such as flooding and high temperatures. This is primarily due to high intensity rainfall, low-lying coasts, inadequate infrastructure, and limited resources. According to the Emergency Events Database, floods were the leading cause of disaster -based deaths in the global south between 2006 and 2015. This includes deaths from heat stress related health outcomes. Adapting to climate vulnerabilities is paramount in reducing the significant redevelopment costs from climate disasters. Governments and urban planners provide top-down approaches such as evacuation, and disaster and emergency communication. While they address infrastructure and public services, they are not always able to address the immediate and critical day to day needs of poor and vulnerable populations. There is growing evidence that some bottom-up strategies and grassroots initiatives of self-build housing such as in urban informal settlements are successful in coping and adapting to hydroclimatic impacts. However, these research findings are not consolidated and the evaluation of the resilience outcomes of the bottom-up strategies are limited. Using self-build housing as a model for sustainable and resilient urban planning, this research aimed to consolidate the flood and heat stress resilient design solutions, analyze the effectiveness of these solutions, and develop guidelines and methods for adopting these design solutions into mainstream housing in megathermal climates. The methodological approach comprised of analyses of over 40 ethnographic based peer reviewed literature, white papers, and reports between the years 2000 and 2019 to identify coping strategies and grassroots initiatives that have been applied by occupants and communities of the global south. The results of the research provide a consolidated source and prioritized list of the best bottom-up strategies for communities in megathermal climates to improve the lives of people in some of the most vulnerable places in the world.

Keywords: resilient, design, megathermal, climate change

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Authors: Ouabo Emmanuel Romaric, Amougou Armathe

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Background and aim: The study of impacts of floods and landslides at a small scale, specifically in the urban areas of developing countries is done to provide tools and actors for a better management of risks in such areas, which are now being affected by climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the hydrometeorological vulnerabilities associated with flooding and urban landslides to propose adaptation measures. Methods: Climatic data analyses were done by calculation of indices of climate change within 50 years (1960-2012). Analyses of field data to determine causes, the level of risk and its consequences on the area of study was carried out using SPSS 18 software. The cartographic analysis and GIS were used to refine the work in space. Then, spatial and terrain analyses were carried out to determine the morphology of field in relation with floods and landslide, and the diffusion on the field. Results: The interannual changes in precipitation has highlighted the surplus years (21), the deficit years (24) and normal years (7). Barakat method bring out evolution of precipitation by jerks and jumps. Floods and landslides are correlated to high precipitation during surplus and normal years. Data field analyses show that populations are conscious (78%) of the risks with 74% of them exposed, but their capacities of adaptation is very low (51%). Floods are the main risk. The soils are classed as feralitic (80%), hydromorphic (15%) and raw mineral (5%). Slope variation (5% to 15%) of small hills and deep valley with anarchic construction favor flood and landslide during heavy precipitation. Mismanagement of waste produce blocks free circulation of river and accentuate floods. Conclusion: Vulnerability of population to hydrometeorological risks in Yaoundé VI is the combination of variation of parameters like precipitation, temperature due to climate change, and the bad planning of construction in urban areas. Because of lack of channels for water to circulate due to saturation of soils, the increase of heavy precipitation and mismanagement of waste, the result are floods and landslides which causes many damages on goods and people.

Keywords: climate change, floods, hydrometeorological, vulnerability

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Authors: Rossana Mancini

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The charm of a ruin colonised by wild plants and flowers is part of Western culture. The relationship between ruins and vegetation involves a wide range of different fields of research. During the first phase of the research the most important writings and projects about this argument were investigated, to understand how the perception of the co-existence of ruins and vegetation has changed over time and to investigate the various different approaches that these different fields have adopted when tackling this issue. The paper presents some practical examples of projects carried out from the early 1900s on. The major result is that specifically regards conservation, the best attitude is the management of change, an inevitable process when it comes to the co-existence of ruins and nature and, particularly, ruins and vegetation. Limiting ourselves to adopting measures designed to stop, or rather slow down, the increasing level of entropy (and therefore disorder) may not be enough.

Keywords: ruins, vegetation, conservation, archaeology, architecture

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Authors: Dembel Bonta Gebeyehu

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In the study area, the impacts of deforestation for environmental degradation and livelihood of farmers manifest in different faces. They are more vulnerable as they depend on rain-fed agriculture and immediate natural forests. On the other hand, after planting seedling, waste disposal and management system of the plastic cover is poorly practiced and administered in the country in general and in the study area in particular. If this situation continues, the plastic waste would also accentuate land degradation. Besides, there is the absence of empirical studies conducted comprehensively on the research under study the case. The results of the study could suffice to inform any intervention schemes or to contribute to the existing knowledge on these issues. The study employed a qualitative approach based on intensive fieldwork data collected via various tools namely open-ended interviews, focus group discussion, key-informant interview and non-participant observation. The collected data was duly transcribed and latter categorized into different labels based on pre-determined themes to make further analysis. The major causes of deforestation were the expansion of agricultural land, poor administration, population growth, and the absence of conservation methods. The farmers are vulnerable to soil erosion and soil infertility culminating in low agricultural production; loss of grazing land and decline of livestock production; climate change; and deterioration of social capital. Their adaptation and coping strategies include natural conservation measures, diversification of income sources, safety-net program, and migration. Due to participatory natural resource conservation measures, soil erosion has been decreased and protected, indigenous woodlands started to regenerate. These brought farmers’ attitudinal change. The existing forestation program has many flaws. Especially, after planting seedlings, there is no mechanism for the plastic waste disposal and management. It was also found out organizational challenges among the mandated offices In the studied area, deforestation is aggravated by a number of factors, which made the farmers vulnerable. The current forestation programs are not well-planned, implemented, and coordinated. Sustainable and efficient seedling plastic cover collection and reuse methods should be devised. This is possible through creating awareness, organizing micro and small enterprises to reuse, and generate income from the collected plastic etc.

Keywords: land-cover and land-dynamics, vulnerability, adaptation strategy, mitigation strategies, sustainable plastic waste management

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Authors: R. Niranchana, K. Meena Alias Jeyanthi

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As a result of the present climate change dilemma, the energy balancing strategy is to construct a sustainable environment has become a top concern for researchers worldwide. The environment itself has always been a solution from the earliest days of human evolution. Carbon capture begins with its accurate estimation and monitoring credit inventories, and its efficient use. Sustainable urban planning with deliverables of re-use energy models might benefit from assessment methods like biomass carbon credit ranking. The term "biomass energy" refers to the various ways in which living organisms can potentially be converted into a source of energy. The approaches that can be applied to biomass and an algorithm for evaluating carbon credits are presented in this paper. The micro-climate evaluation using Computational Fluid dynamics was carried out across the location (1 km x1 km) at Dindigul, India (10°24'58.68" North, 77°54.1.80 East). Sustainable Urban design must be carried out considering environmental and physiological convection, conduction, radiation and evaporative heat exchange due to proceeding solar access and wind intensities.

Keywords: biomass, climate assessment, urban planning, multi-regression, carbon estimation algorithm

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Authors: Gadisa Demie, Mesele Negash, Zerihun Asrat, Lojka Bohdan

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Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics have led to significant carbon (C) emissions. Agroforestry (AF) is a suitable land-use option for tackling such declines in ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. However, it is unclear how biomass models, AF practices, and socio-ecological factors determine these roles, which hinders the implementation of climate change mitigation initiatives. This study aimed to estimate the ecosystem C stocks of the studied AF practices in relation to socio-ecological variables in central Ethiopia. Out of 243 AF farms inventoried, 108 were chosen at random from three AF practices to estimate their biomass and soil organic carbon. A total of 432 soil samples were collected from 0–30 and 30–60 cm soil depths; 216 samples were taken for each soil organic carbon fraction (%C) and bulk density computation. The study found that the currently developed allometric equations were the most accurate to estimate biomass C for trees growing in the landscape when compared to previous models. The study found higher overall biomass C in woodlots (165.62 Mg ha-¹) than in homegardens (134.07 Mg ha-¹) and parklands (19.98 Mg ha-¹). Conversely, overall, SOC was higher for homegardens (143.88 Mg ha-¹), but lower for parklands (53.42 Mg ha-¹). The ecosystem C stock was comparable between homegardens (277.95 Mg ha-¹) and woodlots (275.44 Mg ha-¹). The study found that elevation, wealthy levels, AF farm age, and size have a positive and significant (P < 0.05) effect on overall biomass and ecosystem C stocks but non-significant with slope (P > 0.05). Similarly, SOC increased with increasing elevation, AF farm age, and wealthy status but decreased with slope and non-significant with AF farm size. The study also showed that species diversity had a positive (P <0.05) effect on overall biomass C stocks in homegardens. The overall study highlights that AF practices have a great potential to lock up more carbon in biomass and soils; however, these potentials were determined by socioecological variables. Thus, these factors should be considered in management strategies that preserve trees in agricultural landscapes in order to mitigate climate change and support the livelihoods of farmers.

Keywords: agricultural landscape, biomass, climate change, soil organic carbon

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Authors: Dibakar Sahoo, Sridevi Gummadi

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The focus of the study is to empirically analyse the climatic impacts on foodgrain yield and its variability across seasons and altitudes in Odisha, one of the most vulnerable states in India. The study uses Just-Pope Stochastic Production function by using two-step Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS): mean equation estimation and variance equation estimation. The study uses the panel data on foodgrain yield, rainfall and temperature for 13 districts during the period 1984-2013. The study considers four seasons: winter (December-February), summer (March-May), Rainy (June-September) and autumn (October-November). The districts under consideration have been categorized under three altitude regions such as low (< 70 masl), middle (153-305 masl) and high (>305 masl) altitudes. The results show that an increase in the standard deviations of monthly rainfall during rainy and autumn seasons have an adversely significant impact on the mean yield of foodgrains in Odisha. The summer temperature has beneficial effects by significantly increasing mean yield as the summer season is associated with harvesting stage of Rabi crops. The changing pattern of temperature has increasing effect on the yield variability of foodgrains during the summer season, whereas it has a decreasing effect on yield variability of foodgrains during the Rainy season. Moreover, the positive expected signs of trend variable in both mean and variance equation suggests that foodgrain yield and its variability increases with time. On the other hand, a change in mean levels of rainfall and temperature during different seasons has heterogeneous impacts either harmful or beneficial depending on the altitudes. These findings imply that adaptation strategies should be tailor-made to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change and variability for sustainable development across seasons and altitudes in Odisha agriculture.

Keywords: altitude, adaptation strategies, climate change, foodgrain

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Rafael Haag, Elton Rossini

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This work aims to validate and make the projections of solar energy for the Brazilian period from 2025 to 2100. As the plants designed by the HadGEM2-AO (Global Hadley Model 2 - Atmosphere) General Circulation Model UK Met Office Hadley Center, belonging to Phase 5 of the Intercomparison of Coupled Models (CMIP5). The simulation results of the model are compared with monthly data from 2006 to 2013, measured by a network of meteorological sections of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The performance of HadGEM2-AO is evaluated by the efficiency coefficient (CEF) and bias. The results are shown in the table of maps and maps. HadGEM2-AO, in the most pessimistic scenario, RCP 8.5 had a very good accuracy, presenting efficiency coefficients between 0.94 and 0.98, the perfect setting being Solar radiation, which indicates a horizontal trend, is a climatic alternative for some regions of the Brazilian scenario, especially in spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, scenarios climate change

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Authors: Salahaeddine Sbai

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Air quality analysis using machine learning models is a method employed to assess and predict air pollution levels. This approach leverages the capabilities of machine learning algorithms to analyze vast amounts of air quality data and extract valuable insights. By training these models on historical air quality data, they can learn patterns and relationships between various factors such as weather conditions, pollutant emissions, and geographical features. The trained models can then be used to predict air quality levels in real-time or forecast future pollution levels. This application of machine learning in air quality analysis enables policymakers, environmental agencies, and the general public to make informed decisions regarding health, environmental impact, and mitigation strategies. By understanding the factors influencing air quality, interventions can be implemented to reduce pollution levels, mitigate health risks, and enhance overall air quality management. Climate change is having significant impacts on Morocco, affecting various aspects of the country's environment, economy, and society. In this study, we use some machine learning models under python environment to predict and analysis air quality change over North of Morocco to evaluate the climate change impact on agriculture.

Keywords: air quality, machine learning models, pollution, pollutant emissions

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Authors: Maria Hornell, Marcus Ohman

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Nature, and the society it is a part of, is under constant change. The landscape, climate and game populations vary over time, as well as society's priorities and the way it uses the land where wildlife may proliferate. Sweden currently has historically large wildlife populations which are a resource for the benefit and joy of many people. Wildlife may also be seen as a problem as it may cause damage in contradiction to other human interests. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency introduces a new long-term strategy for national wildlife management. The strategy envisions a wildlife management in balance. It focuses on wildlife values in a broad sense including outdoor recreation and tourism as well as conservation of biodiversity. It is fundamental that these values should be open and accessible for the major part of the population. For that to be possible new ways to manage, mitigate and prevent damages and other problems that wildlife causes need to be developed. The strategy describes a roadmap for the development and strengthening of Sweden's wildlife management until 2020. It aims at being applicable for those authorities and stakeholders with interest in wildlife management being a guide for their own strategies, goals, and activities.

Keywords: wildlife management, strategy, Sweden, SEPA

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Authors: Eleni Stefania Kalapoda

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Recurring heat waves due to the global climate change emergency pose continuous risks to human health and urban resources. Local and state decision-makers incorporate Heat Vulnerability Indices (HVIs) to quantify and map the relative impact on human health in emergencies. These maps enable government officials to identify the highest-risk districts and to concentrate emergency planning efforts and available resources accordingly (e.g., to reevaluate the location and the number of heat-relief centers). Even though the framework of conducting an HVI is unique per municipality, its accuracy in assessing the heat risk is limited. To resolve this issue, varied housing-related metrics should be included. This paper quantifies and classifies NYC’s single detached housing typology within high-vulnerable NYC districts using detailed energy simulations and post-processing calculations. The results show that the variation in indoor heat risk depends significantly on the dwelling’s design/operation characteristics, concluding that low-ventilated dwellings are the most vulnerable ones. Also, it confirmed that when building-level determinants of exposure are excluded from the assessment, HVI fails to capture important components of heat vulnerability. Lastly, the overall vulnerability ratio of the housing units was calculated between 0.11 to 1.6 indoor heat degrees in terms of ventilation and shading capacity, insulation degree, and other building attributes.

Keywords: heat vulnerability index, energy efficiency, urban heat, resiliency to heat, climate adaptation, climate mitigation, building energy

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Authors: Denvi Giovanita, Wustari L. H. Mangundjaya

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The pace of globalization and technological development make changes inevitable to organizations. However, organizational change is not easy to implement and is prone to failure. One of the reasons of change failure is due to lack of employees’ commitment to change. There are many variables that can influence employees’ commitment to change. The influencing factors can be sourced from the organization or individuals themselves. This study focuses on the affective form of commitment to change. The objective of this study is to identify the effect of transformational leadership (organizational factor) and employees’ change self-efficacy (individual factor) on affective commitment to change. The respondents of this study were employees who work in organizations that are or have faced organizational change. The data were collected using Affective Commitment to Change, Change Self-Efficacy, and Transformational Leadership Inventory. The data were analyzed using regression. The result showed that both transformational leadership and change self-efficacy have a positive and significant impact on affective commitment to change. The implication of the study can be used for practitioners to enhance the success of organizational change, by developing transformational leadership on the leaders and change self-efficacy on the employees in order to create a high affective commitment to change.

Keywords: affective commitment to change, change self-efficacy, organizational change, transformational leadership

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Authors: Warda Ajaz

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This study uses the ‘Community Capitals Framework’ (CCF) to develop a community resilience index that can serve as a useful tool for measuring resilience of communities in diverse contexts and backgrounds. CCF is an important analytical tool to assess holistic community change. This framework identifies seven major types of community capitals: natural, cultural, human, social, political, financial and built, and claims that the communities that have been successful in supporting healthy sustainable community and economic development have paid attention to all these capitals. The framework, therefore, proposes to study the community development through identification of assets in these major capitals (stock), investment in these capitals (flow), and the interaction between these capitals. Capital based approaches have been extensively used to assess community resilience, especially in the context of natural disasters and extreme events. Therefore, this study identifies key indicators for estimating each of the seven capitals through an extensive literature review and then develops an index to calculate a community resilience score. The CCF-based community resilience index presents an innovative way of operationalizing the concept of community resilience and will contribute toward decision-relevant research regarding adaptation and mitigation of community vulnerabilities to climate change-induced, as well as other adverse events.

Keywords: adverse events, community capitals, community resilience, climate change, economic development, sustainability

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Authors: Kuo Chieh Chao, Thishani Amarathunga, Sangam Shrestha

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Rainfall induced slope failures are one of the most damaging and disastrous natural hazards which occur frequently in the world. This type of sliding mainly occurs in the zone above the groundwater level in silty/sandy soils. When the rainwater begins to infiltrate into the vadose zone of the soil, the negative pore-water pressure tends to decrease and reduce the shear strength of soil material. Climate change has resulted in excessive and unpredictable rainfall in all around the world, resulting in landslides with dire consequences to human lives and infrastructure. Such problems could be overcome by examining in detail the causes for such slope failures and recommending effective repair plans for vulnerable locations by considering future climatic change. The selected area for this study is located in the road rehabilitation section from Maubara to Mota Ain road in Timor-Leste. Slope failures and cracks have occurred in 2013 and after repairs reoccurred again in 2017 subsequent to heavy rains. Both observed and future predicted climate data analyses were conducted to understand the severe precipitation conditions in past and future. Observed climate data were collected from NOAA global climate data portal. CORDEX data portal was used to collect Regional Climate Model (RCM) future predicted climate data. Both observed and RCM data were extracted to location-based data using ArcGIS Software. Linear scaling method was used for the bias correction of future data and bias corrected climate data were assigned to GeoStudio Software. Precipitations of wet seasons (December to March ) in 2007 to 2013 is higher than 2001-2006 period and it is more than nearly 40% higher precipitation than usual monthly average precipitation of 160mm.The results of seepage analyses which were carried out using SEEP/W model with observed climate, clearly demonstrated that the pore water pressure within the fill slope was significantly increased due to the increase of the infiltration during the wet season of 2013.One main Regional Climate Models (RCM) was analyzed in order to predict future climate variation under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).In the projected period of 76 years ahead from 2014, shows that the amount of precipitation is considerably getting higher in the future in both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Critical pore water pressure conditions during 2014-2090 were used in order to recommend appropriate remediation methods. Results of slope stability analyses indicated that the factor of safety of the fill slopes was reduced from 1.226 to 0.793 during the dry season to wet season in 2013.Results of future slope stability which were obtained using SLOPE/W model for the RCP emissions scenarios depict that, the use of tieback anchors and geogrids in slope protection could be effective in increasing the stability of slopes to an acceptable level during the wet seasons. Moreover, methods and procedures like monitoring of slopes showing signs or susceptible for movement and installing surface protections could be used to increase the stability of slopes.

Keywords: climate change, precipitation, SEEP/W, SLOPE/W, unsaturated soil

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Authors: Safieh Javadinejad

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In order to make well-informed decisions respecting long-term system planning, resource managers and policy creators necessitate to comprehend the interconnections among energy and water utilization and manufacture—and also the energy-water nexus. Planning and assessment issues contain the enhancement of strategies for declining the water and energy system’s vulnerabilities to climate alteration with also emissions of decreasing greenhouse gas. In order to deliver beneficial decision support for climate adjustment policy and planning, understanding the regionally-specific features of the energy-water nexus, and the history-future of the water and energy source systems serving is essential. It will be helpful for decision makers understand the nature of current water-energy system conditions and capacity for adaptation plans for future. This research shows an integrated hydrology/energy modeling platform which is able to extend water-energy examines based on a detailed illustration of local circumstances. The modeling links the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system to create full picture of water-energy processes. This will allow water managers and policy-decision makers to simply understand links between energy system improvements and hydrological processing and realize how future climate change will effect on water-energy systems. The Zayandeh Rud river basin in Iran is selected as a case study to show the results and application of the analysis. This region is known as an area with large integration of both the electric power and water sectors. The linkages between water, energy and climate change and possible adaptation strategies are described along with early insights from applications of the integration modeling system.

Keywords: climate impacts, hydrology, water systems, adaptation planning, electricity, integrated modeling

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Authors: Thimma Reddy Pothireddy, Ramesh Srikonda

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India is prone to natural disasters such as Floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes and landslides frequently due to its geographical considerations. It has become a persistent phenomenon as observed in last ten decades. The recent survey indicates that about 60% of the landmass is prone to earthquakes of various intensities with reference to Richard scale, over 40 million hectares is prone to floods; about 8% of the total area is prone to cyclones and 68% of the area is vulnerable to drought. Climate change is likely to be perceived through the experience of extreme weather events. There is growing societal concern about climate change, given the potential impacts of associated natural hazards such as cyclones, flooding, earthquakes, landslides etc. The recent natural calamities such as Cyclone Hudhud had crossed the land at Northern cost of AP, Vishakapatanam on 12 Oct’2014 with a wind speed ranging between 175 – 200 kmph and the records show that the tidal waves were reached to the height of 14mts and above; and it alarms us to have critical focus on planning issues so as to find appropriate solutions. The existing condition is effective is in terms of institutional set up along with responsive management mechanism of disaster mitigation but considerations at settlement planning level to allow mitigation operations are not adequate. This paper deals to understand the response to climate change will possibly happen through adaptation to climate hazards and essential to work out an appropriate mechanism and disaster receptive settlement planning for responding to natural (and climate-related) calamities particularly to cyclones and floods. The statistics indicate that 40 million hectares flood prone (5% of area), and 1853 kmts of cyclone prone coastal length in India so it is essential and crucial to have appropriate physical planning considerations to improve preparedness and to operate mitigation measures effectively to minimize the loss and damage. Vijayawada capital region which is susceptible to cyclonic and floods has been studied with respect to trajectory analysis to work out risk vulnerability and to integrated disaster mitigation physical planning considerations.

Keywords: meta analysis, vulnerability index, physical planning, trajectories

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Authors: Chao Jen-Chih, Hsu Kuo-Wei

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Climate change and natural disasters take effect on urban development. It has been discussed urban renewals can prevent natural disasters. Integrating green infrastructure and urban renewals may have great effect on adapting the impact of climate change. To highlight the economic value of green infrastructure development on urban renewals, some strategies need to be carry on to reduce environmental impact. A number of urban renewals studies has been conducted on right transfer, financial risk, urban renewal policy, and public participation. Little research has been devoted on the subject of the economic value of green infrastructure development on urban renewals. The purpose of this study is to investigate the affecting factors on the economic value of green infrastructure development on urban renewals. This study will present the benefits of green infrastructure development and summarize the critical factors of green infrastructure develop on urban renewals for real essence and non-real essence on economic value from literature. Our results indicate that factors of housing price, land value, floor area incentive, and facilitation of the construction industry affect the outcome of real essence economic value. Factors of enhancement of urban disaster prevention, improvement of urban environment and landscape, crime reduction, climate control, pollution reduction, biological diversity, health impacts, and leisure space affects the outcome of non-real essence economic value.

Keywords: economic value, green infrastructure, urban renewals, urban development

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Authors: S. K. M. Basha

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Pulicat Lake is the second largest brackish water lagoon after Chilika Lake of Orissa along the east coast of India. Estuaries and lagoons have brackish water which shows high biological productivity than fresh or sea water. Hence it has wide range of aquatic, terrestrial flora and fauna. The World Wide Fund for Nature declared that it is a protected area. Present study aims to explore the flora and fauna of the lagoon along with the various threats for its eco-degradation which helps to plan necessary conservation methods.

Keywords: phytodiversity, Pulicat Lake, threats, conservation

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Authors: Khawla Askri, Mohamed Haythem Msaddek, AbdelAziz Sebei

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Climate change combined with the increase in anthropogenic activities will affect coastal groundwater systems around the world and, more particularly, the Cap Bon region in the North East of Tunisia. This study aims to study the impact of climate change and human stress on the salinization and quantification of groundwater in the Wadi Chiba watershed. In this regard, a hydro-climatological study and a hydrogeological study were carried out based on the characterization of the aquifer system of the eastern coast at the level of the watershed of Wadi Chiba in order to seek to identify, first of all, the degradation of the state of the aquifer on the quantitative level by the study of the piezometric and its evolution over time. Secondly, we sought to identify the degradation of the state of the aquifer qualitatively by using the geochemical method, in particular the major elements, to assess the mineralization of the aquifer water and understand its hydrogeochemical functioning. The study of the Na + / Cl- and Ca2 + / Mg2 + chemical relationships confirmed the presence of a marine intrusion downstream of the Wadi Chiba watershed northeast of Cap-Bon accompanied by a piezometric depression. For this purpose, we proceeded to: 1) Mapping of both piezometric data and salinity. 2) The interpretation of the mapping results. 3)Identification of the origin of the localized deterioration in the quality of the aquifer water. Finally, the analysis of the results showed that the scarcity of water is already forcing human actions in the Chiba watershed due to the irrigation of agricultural lands and the overexploitation of the water table in the study area.

Keywords: climate change, human activities, water table, Wadi Chiba watershed, piezometric depression, marine intrusion

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Authors: Muthmainah Mufidah, Wustari L. H. Mangundjaya

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Organizations nowadays have to change and adjust themselves to the changing external environment in order to survive the globalization era. However, not all the organizational change had been succeeded. Commitment to change is one important factor why the change process often failed. Even so, this commitment to change cannot be separated with the individual’s characteristic. The aim of this study is to identify the role of psychological capital and psychological empowerment as the individual’s positive characteristic on commitment to change. This research was conducted on Indonesian employees who have or are currently experiencing a change in their organization. Data was collected using Commitment to Change Inventory, Psychological Empowerment Questionnaire, and Psychological Capital Questionnaire. The results showed that both psychological capital and psychological empowerment have a positive and significant influence on commitment to change.

Keywords: commitment to change, psychological capital, psychological empowerment, organizational change

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Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

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Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

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Authors: Hasan Ziari, Hassan Fazaeli, Seyed Javad Vaziri Kang Olyaei, Asma Sadat Dabiri

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The presence of cracks in concrete pavements is a place for the ingression of corrosive substances, acids, oils, and water into the pavement and reduces its long-term durability and level of service. One of the causes of early cracks in concrete pavements is the plastic shrinkage. This shrinkage occurs due to the formation of negative capillary pressures after the equilibrium of the bleeding and evaporation rates at the pavement surface. These cracks form if the tensile stresses caused by the restrained shrinkage exceed the tensile strength of the concrete. Different climate conditions change the rate of evaporation and thus change the balance time of the bleeding and evaporation, which changes the severity of cracking in concrete. The present study examined the relationship between the balance time of bleeding and evaporation and the area of cracking in the concrete slabs using the standard method ASTM C1579 in 27 different environmental conditions by using continuous video recording and digital image analyzing. The results showed that as the evaporation rate increased and the balance time decreased, the crack severity significantly increased so that by reducing the balance time from the maximum value to its minimum value, the cracking area increased more than four times. It was also observed that the cracking area- balance time curve could be interpreted in three sections. An examination of these three parts showed that the combination of climate conditions has a significant effect on increasing or decreasing these two variables. The criticality of a single factor cannot cause the critical conditions of plastic cracking. By combining two mild environmental factors with a severe climate factor (in terms of surface evaporation rate), a considerable reduction in balance time and a sharp increase in cracking severity can be prevented. The results of this study showed that balance time could be an essential factor in controlling and predicting plastic shrinkage cracking in concrete pavements. It is necessary to control this factor in the case of constructing concrete pavements in different climate conditions.

Keywords: bleeding and cracking severity, concrete pavements, climate conditions, plastic shrinkage

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Authors: Hossam Elborombaly, Nader Y. Azab

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The Middle East region is rich with its architecture and urban settings. This makes it viable for exploring and applying different strategies that deal with conservation. Current context characterized by pollution, socioeconomic issues, behavioral problems, etc. affects architectural and urban heritage –literally- in all Middle Eastern countries. Although there have been numerous strategies in place to preserve and/ or rehabilitate heritage, all has been designed and implemented following political more than technical or methodical processes. This only resulted in more deterioration of the targeted areas. This paper explores different approaches in some selected Arab countries and relies on comparative analysis with some successful European experiences. The aim is to establish some solid basis for dealing with heritage areas; an approach that respects heritage and traditions without compromising sustainability or socioeconomic opportunities.

Keywords: conservation, heritage, identity, urban conservation methodology,

Procedia PDF Downloads 393

Authors: Doron Markel

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Water availability in most of the Middle East (especially in Jordan) is among the lowest in the world and has been even further exacerbated by the regional climatic change and the reduced rainfall. The Araba Valley in Israel is disconnected from the national water system. On the other hand, the Araba Valley, both in Israel and Jordan, is an excellent area for solar energy gaining. The Dead Sea (Israel and Jordan) is a hypersaline lake which its level declines at a rate of more than 1 m/y. The decline stems from the increasing use of all available freshwater resources that discharge into the Dead Sea and decreasing natural precipitation due to climate change in the Middle East. As an adaptation tool for this humanmade and Climate Change results, a comprehensive water-energy and environmental project were suggested: The Red Sea-Dead Sea Conveyance. It is planned to desalinate the Red Sea water, supply the desalinated water to both Israel and Jordan, and convey the desalination brine to the Dead Sea to stabilize its water level. Therefore, the World Bank had led a multi-discipline feasibility study between 2008 and 2013, that had mainly dealt with the mixing of seawater and Dead Sea Water. The possible consequences of such mixing were precipitation and possible suspension of secondary Gypsum, as well as blooming of Dunaliella red algae. Using a comprehensive hydrodynamic-geochemical model for the Dead Sea, it was predicted that while conveying up to 400 Million Cubic Meters per year of seawater or desalination brine to the Dead Sea, the latter would not be stratified as it was until 1979; hence Gypsum precipitation and algal blooms would be neglecting. Using another hydrodynamic-biological model for the Red Sea, it was predicted the Seawater pump from the Gulf of Eilat would not harm the ecological system of the gulf (including the sensitive coral reef), giving a pump depth of 120-160 m. Based on these studies, a pipeline conveyance was recommended to convey desalination brine to the Dead Sea with the use of a hydropower plant, utilizing the elevation difference of 400 m between the Red Sea and the Dead Sea. The complementary energy would come from solar panels coupled with innovative storage technology, needed to produce a continuous energy production for an appropriate function of the desalination plant. The paper will describe the proposed project as well as the feasibility study results. The possibility to utilize this water-energy-environmental project as a climate change adaptation strategy for both Israel and Jordan will also be discussed.

Keywords: Red Sea, Dead Sea, water supply, hydro-power, Gypsum, algae

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Authors: Rungpansa Noichan, Bart Julian Dewancker

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The conservation and regeneration of historical industrial building is one of the most important issues to be solved in today’s urban development in the world. There are growing numbers of industrial building in which promoting heritage conservation maybe a helpful tool for a sustainable city in social, urban restructuring, environmental and economic component. This paper identifies the key attributes of conservation and regeneration industrial building from the literature, were discussed by reviewing its development at home and abroad. The authors have investigated 93 industrial buildings, which were used as industrial building before and reused into buildings with another function afterward. The data to be discussed below were mainly collected from various publications but also from available internet sources. This study focuses on green transformation, historical culture heritage, transformation techniques, and urban regeneration based on the empirical researches on the historical industrial building and site. Moreover, we focus on social, urban environment and sustainable development. The implications of the study provide suggestions for future improvements in the conservation and regeneration of historical industrial building, and inspire new ways of use, so the building becomes flexible and can consequently be adaptable to changes in order to survive time. Therefore, the building does not take into account only its future impact in the environment and society. Instead, it focuses on its entire life cycle.

Keywords: industrial building, heritage conservation, green transformation, regeneration, sustainable development

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Authors: Yousefali Ziari, Hamidreza Joudaki

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Humans have regularly been interacting with their environment, and have a close relation with their environment. House as a shelter which protects us against hot and cold weather and the other climatic occurrences in the environment has a close relation with climate. Before human could have access to the fossil fuels, preparing the comfort for the house was done by adjusting the building according to the climate conditions, and the help of natural resources. However after the man could access the fossil fuel, this way was forgotten, and caused much use of energy for heating & cooling. This research is trying to find some methods for designing suitable building that create comfort fitting with the zone by studying the climate condition of Arak city and as a result to find a way to reduce the use of energy and improving the design. So for the aim of this research we have used the statistics and information such as temperature, rain, wind and the approximate moisture from a period of 40 years from synoptic station of Arak. After specifying the climate of Arak by the use of effective temperature, Ulgi, Guni, Mahani and Ovenz indicator, we investigated the climate comfort conditions and the harmonious architecture with the climate and then some suggestion was given according to the climate situation of each month of the year and quality of human comfort according to this indicators.

Keywords: climate, architecture, traditional and modern architecture, comfort indicator, Arak city

Procedia PDF Downloads 479

Authors: Remy Kulagowski, Tobias Sturm, Audrey Leopold, Aurelie Metay, Josephine Peigne, Alexis Thoumazeau, Alain Brauman, Bruno Fogliani, Florent Tivet

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A major challenge for agriculture is to enhance productivity while limiting the impact on the environment. Conservation agriculture (CA) is one strategy whereby both sustainability and productivity can be achieved by preserving and improving the soil quality. Soils provide and regulate a large number of ecosystem services (ES) such as agricultural productivity and climate change adaptation and mitigation. The aim of this study is to assess the impacts of contrasted CA crop management on soil functions for maize (Zea mays L.) cultivation in an eight years field experiment (2010-2018). The study included two CA practices: direct seeding in dead mulch (DM) and living mulch (LM), and conventional plough-based tillage (CT) practices on a fluvisol in New Caledonia (French Archipelago in the South Pacific). In 2018, soil quality of the cropping systems were evaluated with the Biofunctool® set of indicators, that consists in twelve integrative, in-field, and low-tech indicators assessing the biological, physical and chemical properties of soils. Main soil functions were evaluated including (i) carbon transformation, (ii) structure maintenance, and (iii) nutrient cycling in the ten first soil centimeters. The results showed significant higher score for soil structure maintenance (e.g., aggregate stability, water infiltration) and carbon transformation function (e.g., soil respiration, labile carbon) under CA in DM and LM when compared with CT. Score of carbon transformation index was higher in DM compared with LM. However, no significant effect of cropping systems was observed on nutrient cycling (i.e., nitrogen and phosphorus). In conclusion, the aggregated synthetic scores of soil multi-functions evaluated with Biofunctool® demonstrate that CA cropping systems lead to a better soil functioning. Further analysis of the results with agronomic performance of the soil-crop systems would allow to better understand the links between soil functioning and production ES of CA.

Keywords: conservation agriculture, cropping systems, ecosystem services, soil functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 157