Search results for: systemic risk

Authors: Mohamed Salah El-Din Mahmoud, Ahmed Hamed, Asmaa Anwar Mohamed

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Purpose: To study the tear film parameters, total corneal thickness (CT), corneal epithelial thickness and, corneal power in Juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) patients compared to age-matched controls using anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT). Methods: This was a cross-sectional study. Study participants were divided into 2 groups: Group A: 75 eyes of JSLE patients, Group B: 75 eyes of healthy controls. Tear meniscus height (TMH), tear meniscus depth (TMD), and tear meniscus area (TMA) were the lower tear meniscus parameters that were measured. The corneal power, CT, and epithelial thickness were all determined automatically. Results: In the JSLE group, the range of age was 10 to 15 years while the control group was 11 to 16 years. TMH, TMA, and TMD were 527.7±46.8, 0.059±0.015 and 343.3±59.9 respectively in JSLE group while 525.4±44.6, 0.058±0.011 and 340.6±58.0 respectively in control group without significant difference (p-value<0.001). The corneal power was 43.3±0.55 in the JSLE while 43.2±0.54 in the control group without significant difference (p-value= 0.407). CT was 551.1±13.5 in JSLE group while 551.2±15.3 in control group without significant difference (p-value= 0.982). Epithelial thickness was 52.66±1.35 in the JSLE group while 52.60±1.36 in the control group without significant difference (p-value= 0.765). Conclusion: We demonstrated no significant difference in tear meniscus dimensions, CT, epithelial thickness, and corneal power in the JSLE patients compared to age-matched controls using AS-OCT.

Keywords: tear film, ASOCT, JSLE, pachymetry, corneal thickness

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Authors: Elaine Y. L. Ng

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Elizabeth Gilbert’s (2006) biography Eat, Pray, Love describes her travels to Italy, India, and Indonesia after a painful divorce. The author’s experiences with love, loss, search for happiness, and meaning have resonated with a huge readership. As regards the translation of Gilbert’s (2006) Eat, Pray, Love into Chinese, it was first translated by a Taiwanese translator He Pei-Hua and published in Taiwan in 2007 by Make Boluo Wenhua Chubanshe with the fairly catching title “Enjoy! Traveling Alone.” The same translation was translocated to China, republished in simplified Chinese characters by Shanxi Shifan Daxue Chubanshe in 2008 and renamed in China, entitled “To Be a Girl for the Whole Life.” Later on, the same translation in simplified Chinese characters was reprinted by Hunan Wenyi Chubanshe in 2013. This study employs Munday’s (2002) systemic model for descriptive translation studies to investigate the translation of Gilbert’s (2006) Eat, Pray, Love into Chinese by the Taiwanese translator Hu Pei-Hua. It employs an interdisciplinary approach, combining systemic functional linguistics and corpus stylistics with sociohistorical research within a descriptive framework to study the translator’s discursive presence in the text. The research consists of three phases. The first phase is to locate the target text within its socio-cultural context. The target-text context concerning the para-texts, readers’ responses, and the publishers’ orientation will be explored. The second phase is to compare the source text and the target text for the categorization of translation shifts by using the methodological tools of systemic functional linguistics and corpus stylistics. The investigation concerns the rendering of mental clauses and speech and thought presentation. The final phase is an explanation of the causes of translation shifts. The linguistic findings are related to the extra-textual information collected in an effort to ascertain the motivations behind the translator’s choices. There exist sets of possible factors that may have contributed to shaping the textual features of the given translation within a specific socio-cultural context. The study finds that the translator generally reproduces the mental clauses and speech and thought presentation closely according to the original. Nevertheless, the language of the translation has been widely criticized to be unidiomatic and stiff, losing the elegance of the original. In addition, the several Chinese translations of the given text produced by one Taiwanese and two Chinese publishers are basically the same. They are repackaged slightly differently, mainly with the change of the book cover and its captions for each version. By relating the textual findings to the extra-textual data of the study, it is argued that the popularity of the Chinese translation of Gilbert’s (2006) Eat, Pray, Love may not be attributed to the quality of the translation. Instead, it may have to do with the way the work is promoted strategically by the social media manipulated by the four e-bookstores promoting and selling the book online in China.

Keywords: chinese translation of eat pray love, corpus stylistics, motivations for translation shifts, systemic approach to translation studies

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Authors: Haykal. Kay-Anne

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The health and well-being of students is a priority for the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Ottawa. The demands of medical studies are extreme, and many studies confirm that the prevalence of psychological distress is very high among medical students and that it is higher than that of the general population of the same age. The main goal is to identify risk factors for mental health among medical students at the University of Ottawa. The secondary objectives are to determine the variation of these risk factors according to demographic variables, as well as to determine if there is a change in the mental health of students during the 1st and 3rd years of their study. Medical students have a mandatory first and third-year wellness check meeting. This assessment includes a questionnaire on demographic information, mental health, and risk factors such as physical health, sleep, social support, financial stress, education and career, stress and drug use and/or alcohol. Student responses were converted to numerical values and analyzed statistically. The results show that 61% of the variation in the mean of the mental health score is explained by the following risk factors (R2 = 0.61, F (9.396) = 67.197, p < 0.01): lack of sleep and fatigue (β = 0.281, p < 0.001), lack of social support (β = 0.217, p <0.001), poor study or career development (β = 0.195, p < 0.001) and an increase stress and drug and alcohol use (β = -0.239, p < 0.001). No demographic variable has a significant effect on the presence of risk factors. In addition, fixed-effects regression demonstrated significantly lower mental health (p < 0.1) among first-year students (M = 0.587, SD = 0.072) than among third-year students (M = 0.719, SD = 0.071). This preliminary study indicates the need to continue data collection and analysis to increase the significance of the study results. As risk factors are present at the beginning of medical studies, it is important to offer resources to students very early in their medical studies and to have close monitoring and supervision.

Keywords: assessment of mental health, medical students, risk factors for mental health, wellness assessment

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Authors: Venkatalakshmi Ranganathan, Ong Hsin Ju, Tan Yinn Ming, Lim Kien Sin, Wong Man Ting, Venkata Srikanth Meka

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The mucoadhesive buccal tablet is an oral drug delivery system which attached to the buccal surface for direct drug absorption into the systemic circulation and the unidirectional drug release is ensured by formulating a hydrophobic backing layer. The objective of present study was to formulate mucoadhesive atenolol bilayer buccal tablets by using sodium alginate, hydroxyethyl cellulose, and xanthan gum as mucoadhesive polymer and the technique applied was direct compression method. Ethyl cellulose was used as backing layer of the tablet. FTIR and DSC analysis were carried out to identify the drug polymer interactions. The prepared tablets were evaluated for physicochemical parameters, ex vivo mucoadhesion time and in-vitro drug release. The formulated tablets showed the average surface pH 6-7 which is favourable for oral mucosa. The formulation containing sodium alginate showed more than 90 % of drug release at the end of the 7 hours in vitro dissolution studies. The formulation containing xanthan gum showed more than 8 hours of mucoadhesion time and all formulation exhibited non fickian release kinetics. The present study indicates enormous potential of erodible mucoadhesive buccal tablet containing atenolol for systemic delivery with an added advantage of circumventing the hepatic first pass metabolism.

Keywords: atenolol, mucoadhesion, in vitro drug release, direct compression, ethyl cellulose

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Authors: Katie Wood

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Cyber criminals are constantly on the lookout for new opportunities to exploit organisation and cause destruction. This could lead to significant cause of economic loss for organisations in the form of destruction in finances, reputation and even the overall survival of the organization. Additionally, this leads to serious consequences on national security. The threat of possible cyber attacks places further pressure on organisations to ensure they are secure, at a time where international scale cyber attacks have occurred in a range of sectors. Stakeholders are wanting confidence that their data is protected. This is only achievable if a business fosters a resilient supply chain strategy which is implemented throughout its supply chain by having a strong cyber leadership culture. This paper will discuss the essential role and need for organisations to adopt a cyber leadership culture and direction to learn about own internal processes to ensure mitigating systemic vulnerability of its supply chains. This paper outlines that to protect national security there is an urgent need for cyber awareness culture change. This is required in all organisations, regardless of their sector or size, to implementation throughout the whole supplier chain to support and protect economic prosperity to make the UK more resilient to cyber-attacks. Through businesses understanding the supply chain and risk management cycle of their own operates has to be the starting point to ensure effective cyber migration strategies.

Keywords: cyber leadership, cyber migration strategies, resilient supply chain strategy, cybersecurity

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Authors: Leandi Steenkamp

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The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.

Keywords: assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title

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Authors: P. Pötters, A. Marquet, B. Leyendecker

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The objective of this paper is to investigate different implementation approaches for the implementation of Lean production in companies. Furthermore, a structured overview of those different approaches is to be made. Therefore, the present work is intended to answer the following research question: What differences and similarities exist between the various systematic approaches and phase models for the implementation of Lean Production? To present various approaches for the implementation of Lean Production discussed in the literature, a qualitative content analysis was conducted. Within the framework of a qualitative survey, a selection of texts dealing with lean production and its introduction was examined. The analysis presents different implementation approaches from the literature, covering the descriptive aspect of the study. The study also provides insights into similarities and differences among the implementation approaches, which are drawn from the analysis of latent text contents and author interpretations. In this study, the focus is on identifying differences and similarities among systemic approaches for implementing Lean Production. The research question takes into account the main object of consideration, objectives pursued, starting point, procedure, and endpoint of the implementation approach. The study defines the concept of Lean Production and presents various approaches described in literature that companies can use to implement Lean Production successfully. The study distinguishes between five systemic implementation approaches and seven phase models to help companies choose the most suitable approach for their implementation project. The findings of this study can contribute to enhancing transparency regarding the existing approaches for implementing Lean Production. This can enable companies to compare and contrast the available implementation approaches and choose the most suitable one for their specific project.

Keywords: implementation, lean production, phase models, systematic approaches

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis

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There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.

Keywords: cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution

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Authors: Ulisses Tadeu Vaz de Oliveira

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The development of multifunctional studies in the theoretical-methodological perspective of the Systemic-Functional Grammar (SFG) and the increasing number of critical literary studies have introduced new opportunities for the study of ideologies and societies, but also brought up new challenges across and within many areas. In this regard, the Critical Linguistics researches allow a form of pairing a textual linguistic analysis method (micro level) with a social language theory in political and ideological processes (macro level), presented in the literature. This presentation will report on strategies to criticize power holders in literary productions from three distinct eras, namely: (a) Satirical Galego-Portuguese chants of Gil Pérez Conde (thirteenth century), (b) Poems of Gregorio de Matos Guerra (seventeenth century), and (c) Songs of Chico Buarque de Holanda (twentieth century). The analysis of these productions is based on the SFG proposals, which considers the clause as a social event. Therefore, the structure serves to realize three concurrent meanings (metafunctions): Ideational, Interpersonal and Textual. The presenter aims to shed light on the core issues relevant to the successes of the authors to criticize authorities in repressive times while caring about face-threatening and politeness. The effective and meaningful critical discourse was a way of moving the society`s chains towards new ideologies reflected in the lexicogrammatical choices made and the rhetorical functions of the persuasive structures used by the authors.

Keywords: ideology, literature, persuasion, systemic-functional grammar

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Authors: Alison L. Miles

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Almost all major financial institutions in the world suffered losses due to the financial crisis of 2007, but the extent varied widely. The causes of the crash of 2007 are well documented and predominately focus on the role and complexity of the financial markets. The dominant theme of the literature suggests the causes of the crash were a combination of globalization, financial sector innovation, moribund regulation and short termism. While these arguments are undoubtedly true, they do not tell the whole story. A key weakness in the current analysis is the lack of consideration of those leading the banks pre and during times of crisis. This purpose of this study is to examine the possible link between the leadership styles and characteristics of the CEO, CFO and chairman and the financial institutions that failed or needed recapitalization. As such, it contributes to the literature and debate on international financial crises and systemic risk and also to the debate on risk management and regulatory reform in the banking sector. In order to first test the proposition (p1) that there are prevalent leadership characteristics or traits in financial institutions, an initial study was conducted using a sample of the top 65 largest global banks and financial institutions according to the Banker Top 1000 banks 2014. Secondary data from publically available and official documents, annual reports, treasury and parliamentary reports together with a selection of press articles and analyst meeting transcripts was collected longitudinally from the period 1998 to 2013. A computer aided key word search was used in order to identify the leadership styles and characteristics of the chairman, CEO and CFO. The results were then compared with the leadership models to form a picture of leadership in the sector during the research period. As this resulted in separate results that needed combining, SPSS data editor was used to aggregate the results across the studies using the variables ‘leadership style’ and ‘company financial performance’ together with the size of the company. In order to test the proposition (p2) that there was a prevalent leadership style in the banks that failed and the proposition (P3) that this was different to those that did not, further quantitative analysis was carried out on the leadership styles of the chair, CEO and CFO of banks that needed recapitalization, were taken over, or required government bail-out assistance during 2007-8. These included: Lehman Bros, Merrill Lynch, Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS, Barclays, Northern Rock, Fortis and Allied Irish. The findings show that although regulatory reform has been a key mechanism of control of behavior in the banking sector, consideration of the leadership characteristics of those running the board are a key factor. They add weight to the argument that if each crisis is met with the same pattern of popular fury with the financier, increased regulation, followed by back to business as usual, the cycle of failure will always be repeated and show that through a different lens, new paradigms can be formed and future clashes avoided.

Keywords: banking, financial crisis, leadership, risk

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Authors: Vangelis Papadimitropoulos

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This paper is part of the research program “Techno-Social Innovation in the Collaborative Economy”, funded by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) for the years 2022-2024. The paper showcases the Open Food Network (OFN) as an open-sourced digital platform supporting short food supply chains in local agricultural production and consumption. The paper outlines the research hypothesis, the theoretical framework, and the methodology of research as well as the findings and conclusions. Research hypothesis: The model of open cooperativism as a vehicle for systemic change in the agricultural sector. Theoretical framework: The research reviews the OFN as an illustrative case study of the three-zoned model of open cooperativism. The OFN is considered a paradigmatic case of the model of open cooperativism inasmuch as it produces commons, it consists of multiple stakeholders including ethical market entities, and it is variously supported by local authorities across the globe, the latter prefiguring the mini role of a partner state. Methodology: Research employs Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe’s discourse analysis -elements, floating signifiers, nodal points, discourses, logics of equivalence and difference- to analyse the breadth of empirical data gathered through literature review, digital ethnography, a survey, and in-depth interviews with core OFN members. Discourse analysis classifies OFN floating signifiers, nodal points, and discourses into four themes: value proposition, governance, economic policy, and legal policy. Findings: OFN floating signifiers align around the following nodal points and discourses: “digital commons”, “short food supply chains”, “sustainability”, “local”, “the elimination of intermediaries” and “systemic change”. The current research identifies a lack of common ground of what the discourse of “systemic change” signifies on the premises of the OFN’s value proposition. The lack of a common mission may be detrimental to the formation of a common strategy that would be perhaps deemed necessary to bring about systemic change in agriculture. Conclusions: Drawing on Laclau and Mouffe’s discourse theory of hegemony, research introduces a chain of equivalence by aligning discourses such as “agro-ecology”, “commons-based peer production”, “partner state” and “ethical market entities” under the model of open cooperativism, juxtaposed against the current hegemony of neoliberalism, which articulates discourses such as “market fundamentalism”, “privatization”, “green growth” and “the capitalist state” to promote corporatism and entrepreneurship. Research makes the case that for OFN to further agroecology and challenge the current hegemony of industrial agriculture, it is vital that it opens up its supply chains into equivalent sectors of the economy, civil society, and politics to form a chain of equivalence linking together ethical market entities, the commons and a partner state around the model of open cooperativism.

Keywords: sustainability, the digital commons, open cooperativism, innovation

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Authors: Alev Atak

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In this paper, we aim to create a financial sentiment index by investigating the company’s voluntary information disclosures. We retrieve structured content from BIST 100 companies’ financial reports for the period 1998-2018 and extract relevant financial information for sentiment analysis through Natural Language Processing. We measure strategy-related disclosures and their cross-sectional variation and classify report content into generic sections using synonym lists divided into four main categories according to their liquidity risk profile, risk positions, intra-annual information, and exposure to risk. We use Word Error Rate and Cosin Similarity for comparing and measuring text similarity and derivation in sets of texts. In addition to performing text extraction, we will provide a range of text analysis options, such as the readability metrics, word counts using pre-determined lists (e.g., forward-looking, uncertainty, tone, etc.), and comparison with reference corpus (word, parts of speech and semantic level). Therefore, we create an adequate analytical tool and a financial dictionary to depict the importance of granular financial disclosure for investors to identify correctly the risk-taking behavior and hence make the aggregated effects traceable.

Keywords: financial sentiment, machine learning, information disclosure, risk

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Authors: Gavin Quibell, Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler

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The Sendai Framework notes that disaster risk reduction is essential for sustainable development, and Disaster Risk Reduction is included in 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and 4 of the SDG targets. However, apart from promoting better governance and resourcing of disaster management agencies, little guidance is given how low-income nations can balance investments across the SDGs to achieve sustainable development in an increasingly climate vulnerable world with increasing prevalence of flood and drought disasters. As one of the world’s poorest nations, Malawi must balance investments across all the SDGs. This paper explores how Malawi’s National Guidelines for Community-based Flood Risk Management integrate sustainable development and flood management objectives at different administrative levels. While Malawi periodically suffers from large, widespread flooding, the greatest impacts are felt through the smaller annual floods and flash floods. The Guidelines address this through principles that recognize that while the protection of human life is the most important priority for flood risk management, addressing the impacts of floods on the rural poor and the economy requires different approaches. The National Guidelines are therefore underpinned by the following; 1. In the short-term investments in flood risk management must focus on breaking the poverty – vulnerability cycle; 2. In the long-term investments in the other SDGs will have the greatest flood risk management benefits; 3. If measures are in place to prevent loss of life and protect strategic infrastructure, it is better to protect more people against small and medium size floods than fewer people against larger floods; 4. Flood prevention measures should focus on small (1:5 return period) floods; 5. Flood protection measures should focus on small and medium floods (1:20 return period) while minimizing the risk of failure in larger floods; 6. The impacts of larger floods ( > 1:50) must be addressed through improved preparedness; 7. The impacts of climate change on flood frequencies are best addressed by focusing on growth not overdesign; and 8. Manage floods and droughts conjunctively. The National Guidelines weave these principles into Malawi’s approach to flood risk management through recommendations for planning and implementing flood prevention, protection and preparedness measures at district, traditional authority and village levels.

Keywords: flood risk management in low-income countries, sustainable development, investments in prevention, protection and preparedness, community-based flood risk management, Malawi

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Authors: Budhvin T. Withana, Sulochana Rupasinghe

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The problem of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, two learning disabilities that affect reading and writing abilities, respectively, is a major concern for the educational system. Due to the complexity and uniqueness of the Sinhala language, these conditions are especially difficult for children who speak it. The traditional risk detection methods for Dyslexia and Dysgraphia frequently rely on subjective assessments, making it difficult to cover a wide range of risk detection and time-consuming. As a result, diagnoses may be delayed and opportunities for early intervention may be lost. The project was approached by developing a hybrid model that utilized various deep learning techniques for detecting risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia. Specifically, Resnet50, VGG16 and YOLOv8 were integrated to detect the handwriting issues, and their outputs were fed into an MLP model along with several other input data. The hyperparameters of the MLP model were fine-tuned using Grid Search CV, which allowed for the optimal values to be identified for the model. This approach proved to be effective in accurately predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, providing a valuable tool for early detection and intervention of these conditions. The Resnet50 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9804 on the training data and 0.9653 on the validation data. The VGG16 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9991 on the training data and 0.9891 on the validation data. The MLP model achieved an impressive training accuracy of 0.99918 and a testing accuracy of 0.99223, with a loss of 0.01371. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia.

Keywords: neural networks, risk detection system, Dyslexia, Dysgraphia, deep learning, learning disabilities, data science

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Authors: C. Brandt, R. Christopher, N. Damons

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Background: Soccer is one of the most common sports in the world. It is associated with a significant chance of injury either during training or during the course of an actual match. Studies on the epidemiology of soccer injuries have been widely conducted, but methodological appraisal is lacking to make evidence-based decisions. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of common injuries in soccer and their risk factors. Methods: A systematic review was performed based on the Joanna Briggs Institute procedure for conducting systematic reviews. Databases such as SPORT Discus, Cinahl, Medline, Science Direct, PubMed, and grey literature were searched. The quality of selected studies was rated, and data extracted and tabulated. Plot data analysis was done, and incidence rates and odds ratios were calculated, with their respective 95% confidence intervals. I² statistic was used to determine the proportion of variation across studies. Results: The search yielded 62 studies, of which 21 were screened for inclusion. A total of 16 studies were included for the analysis, ten for qualitative and six for quantitative analysis. The included studies had, on average, a low risk of bias and good methodological quality. The heterogeneity amongst the pooled studies was, however, statistically significant (χ²-p value < 0.001). The pooled results indicated a high incidence of soccer injuries at an incidence rate of 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. The pooled results also showed significant evidence of risk factors and the likelihood of injury occurrence in relation to these risk factors (OR=1.12 95% CI 1.07; 1.17). Conclusion: Although multiple studies are available on the epidemiology of soccer injuries and risk factors, only a limited number of studies were of sound methodology to be included in a review. There was also significant heterogeneity amongst the studies. The incidence rate of common soccer injuries was found to be 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. This incidence rate is lower than the values reported by the majority of previous studies on the occurrence of common soccer injuries. The types of common soccer injuries found by this review support the soccer injuries pattern reported in existing literature as muscle strain and ligament sprain of varying severity, especially in the lower limbs. The risk factors that emerged from this systematic review are predominantly intrinsic risk factors. The risk factors increase the risk of traumatic and overuse injuries of the lower extremities such as hamstrings and groin strains, knee and ankle sprains, and contusion.

Keywords: incidence, prevalence, risk factors, soccer injuries

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Authors: Dib Imane, Chettah Wahid, Khedidja Abdelhamid

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The plain of Gadaïne - Ain Yaghout, located in the wilaya of Batna (Eastern Algeria), experiences intensive human activities, particularly in agricultural practices which are accompanied by an increasing use of chemical fertilizers and manure. These activities lead to a degradation of the quality of water resources. In order to protect the quality of groundwater in this plain and formulate effective strategies to mitigate or avoid any contamination of groundwater, a risk assessment using the European method known as “COSTE Action 620” was applied to the mio-. plio-quaternary aquifer of this plain. Risk assessment requires the identification of existing dangers and their potential impact on groundwater by using a system of evaluation and weighting. In addition, it also requires the integration of the hydrogeological factors that influence the movement of contaminants by means of the intrinsic vulnerability maps of groundwater, which were produced according to the modified DRASTIC method. The overall danger on the plain ranges from very low to high. Farms containing stables, houses detached from the public sewer system, and sometimes manure piles were assigned a weighting factor expressing the highest degree of harmfulness; this created a medium to high danger index. Large areas for agricultural practice and grazing are characterized, successively, by low to very low danger. Therefore, the risks present at the study site are classified according to a range from medium to very high-risk intensity. These classes successively represent 3%, 49%, and 0.2% of the surface of the plain. Cultivated land and farms present a high to very high level of risk successively. In addition, with the exception of the salt mine, which presents a very high level of risk, the gas stations and cemeteries, as well as the railway line, represent a high level of risk.

Keywords: semi-arid, quality of water resources, risk assessment, vulnerability, contaminants

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Authors: R. H. Fattepur, Sameer R. Fattepur, D. K. Sreekantha

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Dairy Farming is one of the key industries in India. India is the leading producer and also the consumer of milk, milk-based products in the world. In this paper, we have attempted to the replace the human expert system and to develop an artificial expert system prototype to increase the speed and accuracy of decision making dairy farming credit risk evaluation. Fuzzy logic is used for dealing with uncertainty, vague and acquired knowledge, fuzzy rule base method is used for representing this knowledge for building an effective expert system.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, dairy farming, credit risk

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Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

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The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

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Authors: Etienne Sugewe

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Purpose: The establishment of a positive HIV serologic status of an individual could have been an inhibitory factor to prevent risk behaviours in people living with HIV/AIDS. We conducted a cross-sectional study in order to assess the prevalence and predictors of risk behaviors among HIV-positive people in Douala-Cameroon. Methods: We used pre-checked questionnaires to systematically collect data from four HIV treatment centers in Douala. This was done to some of them during the distribution of drugs and to others during their classical rendezvous between the months of May and July 2012. The Chi-Square and Student t-test were used for cross tabulation of variables; multiple regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of risky sexual behaviours. Results: Of the 330 persons interviewed, sixty percent were reported to have had sexual intercourse after the diagnosis of HIV. We obtained 37% HIV-positive partners, and 63% had HIV- negative partners or partners with unknown status. Among our patients, 45% of the subjects with regular partners reported to have had anal or vaginal sex. Those whose score on the knowledge about HIV/AIDS was < 50% and where 90% of them were less susceptible to the condom during intercourse (p: 0.01). About 74% of patients on ARV were less susceptible to the use of condoms during sexual intercourse (p: 0.03). Conclusion: Risk sexual behaviours among people living with HIV/AIDS are common and potentially expose their partners. For HIV-positive partners, these habits pose a real risk of suprainfection by other strains of HIV. The need to increase awareness and education among people living with HIV is therefore highly recommended.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, behaviours, HIV positive, Douala, 2012

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Authors: Souhir Chelly, Asma Ben Cheikh, Hela Ghali, Salwa Khefacha, Lamine Dhidah, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Houyem Said Latiri

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The hospital risk management department is firstly involved in the methodological analysis of grade zero sterilization incidents. The system is based on a subsequent analysis process in compliance with the ongoing requirements of the Haute Autorité de santé (HAS) for a reactive approach to risk, allowing to identify failures and start the appropriate preventive and corrective measures. The use of the association of litigation and risk management (ALARM) method makes easier the grade zero analysis and brings to light the team or institutional, organizational, temporal, individual factors representative of undesirable effects. Two main factors come out again from this analysis, pre-disinfection step of the emergency block unsupervised instrumentalist intern was poorly done since she did not remove the battery from micro air motor. At the sterilization unit, the worker who was not supervised by the nurse did the conditioning of the motor without having checked it if it still contained the battery. The main cause is that the management of human resources was inadequate at both levels, the instrumental trainee in the block who was not supervised by his supervisor and the worker of the sterilization unit who was not supervised by the responsible nurse. There is a lack of research help, advice, and collaboration. The difficulties encountered during this type of analysis are multiple. The first is based on its necessary acceptance by the various actors of care involved, which should not perceive it as a tool leading to individual punishment, but rather as a means to improve their practices.

Keywords: ALARM (Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method), incident, risk management, sterilization

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Authors: Cai Qianyi

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In the midst of global digital revolution, the flow of data poses security threats that call China's existing legislative framework for protecting personal information into question. As a preliminary procedure for risk analysis and prevention, the risk assessment of personal data transmission lacks detailed guidelines for support. Existing provisions reveal unclear responsibilities for network operators and weakened rights for data subjects. Furthermore, the regulatory system's weak operability and a lack of industry self-regulation heighten data transmission hazards. This paper aims to compare the regulatory pathways for data information transmission risks between China and Europe from a legal framework and content perspective. It draws on the “Data Protection Impact Assessment Guidelines” to empower multiple stakeholders, including data processors, controllers, and subjects, while also defining obligations. In conclusion, this paper intends to solve China's digital security shortcomings by developing a more mature regulatory framework and industry self-regulation mechanisms, resulting in a win-win situation for personal data protection and the development of the digital economy.

Keywords: personal information data transmission, risk assessment, DPIA, internet service provider, personal information data transimission, risk assessment

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Authors: Yang Yu, Jian Wang, Jiqiang Liu, Lei Han, Xudong He, Shaohua Lv

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As the increasing network attacks become more and more complex, network situation assessment based on log analysis cannot meet the requirements to ensure network security because of the low quality of logs and alerts. This paper addresses the lack of consideration of security attributes of hosts and attacks in the network. Identity and effectiveness of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) are hard to be proved in risk assessment based on alerts and flow matching. This paper proposes a multi-dimension threat situation assessment method based on network security attributes. First, the paper offers an improved Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) calculation, which includes confident risk, integrity risk, availability risk and a weighted risk. Second, the paper introduces deterioration rate of properties collected by sensors in hosts and network, which aimed at assessing the time and level of DDoS attacks. Third, the paper introduces distribution of asset value in security attributes considering features of attacks and network, which aimed at assessing and show the whole situation. Experiments demonstrate that the approach reflects effectiveness and level of DDoS attacks, and the result can show the primary threat in network and security requirement of network. Through comparison and analysis, the method reflects more in security requirement and security risk situation than traditional methods based on alert and flow analyzing.

Keywords: DDoS evaluation, improved CVSS, network security attribute, threat situation assessment

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Authors: Herawanti Kumalasari, Raldi Hendro Koestoer, Hayati Sari Hasibuan

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Geographically, Indonesia is located in the arc of volcanoes that cause disaster prone one of them is landslide disaster. One of the causes of the landslide is the conversion of land from forest to agricultural land in upland areas and river border that has a steep slope. The study area is located in the highlands with fertile soil conditions, so most of the land is used as agricultural land and plantations. Land use transfer also occurs around the geothermal field in Pangalengan District, West Java Province which will threaten the sustainability of geothermal energy utilization and the safety of the community. The purpose of this research is to arrange the concept of spatial pattern arrangement in the geothermal area based on disaster mitigation. This research method using superimpose analysis. Superimpose analysis to know the basic physical condition of the planned area through the overlay of disaster risk map with the map of the plan of spatial plan pattern of Bandung Regency Spatial Plan. The results of the analysis will then be analyzed spatially. The results have shown that most of the study areas were at moderate risk level. Planning of spatial pattern of existing study area has not fully considering the spread of disaster risk that there are settlement area and the agricultural area which is in high landslide risk area. The concept of the arrangement of the spatial pattern of the study area will use zoning system which is divided into three zones namely core zone, buffer zone and development zone.

Keywords: spatial planning, geothermal, disaster risk, zoning

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Ilona Heldal, Carolyn Ahmer, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Elderly people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to a safe place. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. While earlier studies have frequently addressed quantitative measurements regarding at-risk groups' physical characteristics (e.g., their speed of travel), this paper considers the influence of at-risk groups’ characteristics on their decision and determining better escape routes. Most of evacuation models are based on mapping people's movement and their behaviour to summation times for common activity types on a timeline. Usually, timeline models estimate required safe egress time (RSET) as a sum of four timespans: detection, alarm, premovement, and movement time, and compare this with the available safe egress time (ASET) to determine what is influencing the margin of safety.This paper presents a cross-sectional study for identifying the most critical items on RSET and people's decision-making and with possibilities to include safety knowledge regarding people with physical or cognitive functional impairments. The result will contribute to increased knowledge on considering at-risk groups and disabilities for designing and developing safe escape routes. The expected results can be an asset to predict the probabilistic behavioural pattern of at-risk groups and necessary components for defining a framework for understanding how stakeholders can consider various disabilities when determining the margin of safety for a safe escape route.

Keywords: fire safety, evacuation, decision-making, at-risk groups

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, O. Osibanjo

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Informal electronic waste (e-waste) processing is a crude method of recycling, which is on the increase in Nigeria. The release of hazardous substances such as heavy metals (HMs) into the environment during informal e-waste processing has been a major concern. However, there is insufficient information on environmental contamination from e-waste recycling, associated ecological risk in Alaba International Market, a major electronic market in Lagos, Nigeria. The aims of this study were to determine the levels of HMs in soil, resulting from the e-waste recycling; and also assess associated ecological risks in Alaba international market. Samples of soils (334) were randomly collected seasonally for three years from fourteen selected e-waste activity points and two control sites. The samples were digested using standard methods and HMs analysed by inductive coupled plasma optical emission. Ecological risk was estimated using Ecological Risk index (ER), Potential Ecological Risk index (RI), Index of geoaccumulation (Igeo), Contamination factor (Cf) and degree of contamination factor (Cdeg). The concentrations range of HMs (mg/kg) in soil were: 16.7-11200.0 (Pb); 14.3-22600.0 (Cu); 1.90-6280.0 (Ni), 39.5-4570.0 (Zn); 0.79-12300.0 (Sn); 0.02-138.0 (Cd); 12.7-1710.0 (Ba); 0.18-131.0 (Cr); 0.07-28.0 (V), while As was below detection limit. Concentrations range in control soils were 1.36-9.70 (Pb), 2.06-7.60 (Cu), 1.25-5.11 (Ni), 3.62-15.9 (Zn), BDL-0.56 (Sn), BDL-0.01 (Cd), 14.6-47.6 (Ba), 0.21–12.2 (Cr) and 0.22-22.2 (V). The trend in ecological risk index was in the order Cu > Pb > Ni > Zn > Cr > Cd > Ba > V. The potential ecological risk index with respect to informal e-waste activities were: burning > dismantling > disposal > stockpiling. The index of geo accumulation indices revealed that soils were extremely polluted with Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni. The contamination factor indicated that 93% of the studied areas have very high contamination status for Pb, Cu, Ba, Sn and Co while Cr and Cd were in the moderately contaminated status. The degree of contamination decreased in the order of Sn > Cu > Pb >> Zn > Ba > Co > Ni > V > Cr > Cd. Heavy metal contamination of Alaba international market environment resulting from informal e-waste processing was established. Proper management of e-waste and remediation of the market environment are recommended to minimize the ecological risks.

Keywords: Alaba international market, ecological risk, electronic waste, heavy metal contamination

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Authors: Mohammad Karimizadehardakani, Hooman Minoonejad, Reza Rajabi, Ali Sharifnejad

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Background: Ankle sprain is one of the most important risk factor of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. Also, functional ankle instability (FAI) population has alterations in lower extremity sagittal plane biomechanics during landing task. We want to examine whether biomechanical alterations demonstrated by FAI patients are associated with the mechanism of ACL injury during high risk and sport related tasks. Methods: Sixteen basketball player with FAI and 16 non-injured control performed a single-leg cross drop landing. Knee sagittal and frontal (ATSF) was calculated. Independent t-tests, multiple linear regression, and Pearson correlation were used for analysis data. Result: Subject with FAI showed more peak ATFS, posterior ground reaction force (GRF) and less knee flexion, compared to the controls (P= 0.001, P= 0.004, P= 0.011). Knee flexion (r= −0.824, P = 0.011) and posterior GRF (r= 0.901, P = .001) were correlated with ATSF; Posterior GRF was factor that most explained the variance in ATSF (R2= 0.645; P = .001) in the FAI group. Conclusions: Result of our study showed there is a potential biomechanical relationship between the presence of FAI and risk factors associated with ACL injury mechanism.

Keywords: functional ankle instability, anterior cruciate ligament, biomechanics, risk factor

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Authors: Felix Olajide Ibikunle

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Introductory Statement: Sustainable participation of teenagers in sport requires deliberate and concerted plan and managerial policy rooted in the “philosophy of catch them young”. At risk, teenagers need proper integration into societal aspiration: This direction will go a long way to streamline them into the security breach and attractive nuisance free lifestyles. Basic Methodology: The population consists of children within 13-19 years old. A proportionate sampling size technique of 60% was adopted to select seven zones out of 11 geo-political zones in the Ibadan metropolis. Qualitative information and interview were used to collect needed information. Majority of the teenagers were out of school, street hawkers, motor pack, touts, and unserious vocation apprentices. These groups have the potentials of security breaches in the metropolis and beyond. Five hundred and thirty-four (534) respondents were used for the study. They were drawn from Ojoo, Akingbile, and Moniya axis = 72, Agbowo, Ajibode, and Apete axis = 74; Akobo, Basorun, and Idi-ape axis 79; Wofun, Monatan, and Iyana-Church axis = 78; Molete, Oke-ado and Oke-Bola axis = 75; Beere, Odinjo, Elekuro axis = 77; Eleyele, Ologuneru, and Alesinloye axis = 79. Major Findings: Multiple regression was used to analyze the independent variables and percentage. The respondents average age was 15.6 years old, and with 100% male. The instrument(questionnaire) used yielded; sport preference (r = 0.72); intervention (r = 0.68) and the sustainable participation (r = 0.70).The relative contributions of sport preference on participation of at risk teenagers was (F-ratio = 1.067); Intervention contribution of sport on participation of at risk teenagers = produced (F-ratio of 12.095) was significant while sustainable participation of at risk teenager produced (F-ratio = 1.062) was significant. Closing Statement: The respondents’ sport preference stimulated their participation in sport. The intervention exposed at risk-teenagers to coaching, which activated their interest and participation in sport. While sustainable participation contributed positively to evolve at risk teenagers participation in their preferred sport.

Keywords: sport, preference, intervention, teenagers, sustainable, participation and risk teenagers

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Authors: Rashmi Dyondi, Shishir K. Jha

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The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike extensive scholarly work on dynamics of Hollywood motion picture industry, Hindi film industry is an under-researched area till now. Especially how do film distributors perceive risk is an unexplored study for the Hindi film industry. Films are unique experience products and the film distributor acts as an entrepreneur assuming high risks given the uncertainty in the motion picture business. With the entry of mighty corporate studios and astronomical film budgets posing serious business threats to the independent distributors, there is a need for an in-depth qualitative enquiry (applying grounded theory technique) for unraveling the definition of risk for the independent distributors in Mumbai vis-à-vis the corporate studios. Need for good content was a common challenge to both the groups in the present state of the industry, however corporate studios with their distinct ideologies, focus on own productions and financial power faced different set of challenges than the independents (like achieving sustainability in business). Softer issues like market goodwill and relations with producers, honesty in business dealings and transparency came out to be clear markers for success of independents in long run. The findings from the qualitative analysis stress on different elements of risk and challenges as perceived by the two groups of distributors in the Hindi film industry and provide a future research agenda for empirical investigation of determinants of box-office success of Hindi films distributed in Mumbai.

Keywords: entrepreneurial risk behavior, film distribution strategy, Hindi film industry, risk

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Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

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Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safety navigation of ships

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: M. Sadeghi, H. Pezeshk, R. Tusserkani, A. Sharifi Zarchi, A. Malekpour, M. Foroughmand, S. Goliaei, M. Totonchi, N. Ansari–Pour

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The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.

Keywords: cancer risk, extrinsic factors, genome sequencing, intrinsic factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 253