Search results for: probability of paternity

Authors: Sukritta Larsen, Kevin Wongleedee

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The purposes of this research were to study tourists’ destination loyalty from the perspective of international tourists in Bangkok and to study the level of interest to revisit Bangkok in the near future. A probability random sampling of 200 international tourists was utilized. Half of the sample group was male and the other half was female. A Likert-five-scale questionnaire was designed to collect the data and small in-depth interviews were also used to obtain their opinions. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents had a medium level of loyalty. When examined in detail, the destination loyalty indicators can be ranked according to the mean average from high to low as follows: to recommend the visit, to say positive things, to revisit in the next three years, to refer the information, and to plan to visit regularly. Finally, the findings from the in-depth interviews with small group of international tourists revealed that the major obstacles that prevented many international tourists who may interested in revisiting Thailand included traffic congestions, high crime rate, and political instability.

Keywords: destination loyalty, international tourists, revisit, Bangkok

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Daehyoung Kim, Pervez Khan, Hoon Kim

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Efficient utilization of spectrum resources is a fundamental issue of wireless communications due to its scarcity. To improve the efficiency of spectrum utilization, the spectrum sharing for unlicensed bands is being regarded as one of key technologies in the next generation wireless networks. A number of schemes such as Listen-Before-Talk(LBT) and carrier sensor adaptive transmission (CSAT) have been suggested from this aspect, but more efficient sharing schemes are required for improving spectrum utilization efficiency. This work considers an opportunistic transmission approach and a dynamic Contention Window (CW) adjustment scheme for LTE-U users sharing the unlicensed spectrum with Wi-Fi, in order to enhance the overall system throughput. The decision criteria for the dynamic adjustment of CW are based on the collision evaluation, derived from the collision probability of the system. The overall performance can be improved due to the adaptive adjustment of the CW. Simulation results show that our proposed scheme outperforms the Distributed Coordination Function (DCF) mechanism of IEEE 802.11 MAC.

Keywords: spectrum sharing, adaptive opportunistic transmission, unlicensed bands, heterogeneous networks

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Authors: Nicole Merkle, Stefan Zander

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Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) describes a technological and methodological stack of (e.g. formal model-theoretic semantics, rule-based reasoning and machine learning), different aspects regarding the behavior, activities and characteristics of humans. Hence, a semantic representation of the user environment and its relevant elements are required in order to allow assistive agents to recognize situations and deduce appropriate actions. Furthermore, the user and his/her characteristics (e.g. physical, cognitive, preferences) need to be represented with a high degree of expressiveness in order to allow software agents a precise evaluation of the users’ context models. The correct interpretation of these context models highly depends on temporal, spatial circumstances as well as individual user preferences. In most AAL approaches, model representations of real world situations represent the current state of a universe of discourse at a given point in time by neglecting transitions between a set of states. However, the AAL domain currently lacks sufficient approaches that contemplate on the dynamic adaptions of context-related representations. Semantic representations of relevant real-world excerpts (e.g. user activities) help cognitive, rule-based agents to reason and make decisions in order to help users in appropriate tasks and situations. Furthermore, rules and reasoning on semantic models are not sufficient for handling uncertainty and fuzzy situations. A certain situation can require different (re-)actions in order to achieve the best results with respect to the user and his/her needs. But what is the best result? To answer this question, we need to consider that every smart agent requires to achieve an objective, but this objective is mostly defined by domain experts who can also fail in their estimation of what is desired by the user and what not. Hence, a smart agent has to be able to learn from context history data and estimate or predict what is most likely in certain contexts. Furthermore, different agents with contrary objectives can cause collisions as their actions influence the user’s context and constituting conditions in unintended or uncontrolled ways. We present an approach for dynamically updating a semantic model with respect to the current user context that allows flexibility of the software agents and enhances their conformance in order to improve the user experience. The presented approach adapts rules by learning sensor evidence and user actions using probabilistic reasoning approaches, based on given expert knowledge. The semantic domain model consists basically of device-, service- and user profile representations. In this paper, we present how this semantic domain model can be used in order to compute the probability of matching rules and actions. We apply this probability estimation to compare the current domain model representation with the computed one in order to adapt the formal semantic representation. Our approach aims at minimizing the likelihood of unintended interferences in order to eliminate conflicts and unpredictable side-effects by updating pre-defined expert knowledge according to the most probable context representation. This enables agents to adapt to dynamic changes in the environment which enhances the provision of adequate assistance and affects positively the user satisfaction.

Keywords: ambient intelligence, machine learning, semantic web, software agents

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Authors: Chia-Chun Wu, Pei-Shan Lee

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Gender equality is an important issue in the workplace today. This study aimed to explore whether female naval with agreeableness personality traits can increase bystander attitudes towards sexual harassment by reducing sexism. A total of 281 female navalin Taiwan participated in this study and completed the BFI-10 scale and questionnaires on sexism and bystander attitudes towards sexual harassment. Path analysis was performed using AMOS 23 version. The results demonstrated that female naval with an agreeableness personality predicted bystander attitudes towards sexual harassment, and when sexism was reduced, it was more helpful to increase bystander attitudes toward sexual harassment. These results informed the perspectives of female naval. It is suggested that when promoting gender equality in the military in the future, people with agreeableness personality can be selected to attend gender equality courses to improve bystander attitudes towards sexual harassment. This provided the Navy with strategies to reduce the probability of sexual harassment.

Keywords: semism, agreeableness, female, bystander attitude

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Authors: Akshat Kumar, Vidushi

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This paper identifies 27 KOIs, 26 of which are currently classified as candidates and one as false positives that have a high probability of being confirmed. For this purpose, 11 machine learning algorithms were implemented on the cumulative kepler dataset sourced from the NASA exoplanet archive; it was observed that the best-performing model was HistGradientBoosting and XGBoost with a test accuracy of 93.5%, and the lowest-performing model was Gaussian NB with a test accuracy of 54%, to test model performance F1, cross-validation score and RUC curve was calculated. Based on the learned models, the significant characteristics for confirm exoplanets were identified, putting emphasis on the object’s transit and stellar properties; these characteristics were namely koi_count, koi_prad, koi_period, koi_dor, koi_ror, and koi_smass, which were later considered to filter out the potential KOIs. The paper also calculates the Earth similarity index based on the planetary radius and equilibrium temperature for each KOI identified to aid in their classification.

Keywords: Kepler objects of interest, exoplanets, space exploration, machine learning, earth similarity index, transit photometry

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Authors: Alaka Padhye, S. P. Kane

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The following study considers some variations made to the secretary problem (SP). In a multiple criteria secretary problem (MCSP), the selection of a unit is based on two independent characteristics. The units that appear before an observer are known say N, the best rank of a unit being N. A unit is selected, if it is better with respect to either first or second or both the characteristics. When the number of units is large and due to constraints like time and cost, the observer might want to stop earlier instead of inspecting all the available units. Let the process terminate at r2th unit where r1Keywords: joint distribution, marginal distribution, real ranks, secretary problem, selection criterion, two tailed secretary problem

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Authors: Mohammad H. Almomani

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In this paper, we argue the effect of the initial sample size, and the increment in simulation samples on the performance of a sequential approach that used in selecting the top m designs when the number of alternative designs is very large. The sequential approach consists of two stages. In the first stage the ordinal optimization is used to select a subset that overlaps with the set of actual best k% designs with high probability. Then in the second stage the optimal computing budget is used to select the top m designs from the selected subset. We apply the selection approach on a generic example under some parameter settings, with a different choice of initial sample size and the increment in simulation samples, to explore the impacts on the performance of this approach. The results show that the choice of initial sample size and the increment in simulation samples does affect the performance of a selection approach.

Keywords: Large Scale Problems, Optimal Computing Budget Allocation, ordinal optimization, simulation optimization

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Authors: V. Makis, L. Jafari

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In this paper, we develop an optimal Bayesian chart to control the expected number of defects per inspection unit in production processes with long production runs. We formulate this control problem in the optimal stopping framework. The objective is to determine the optimal stopping rule minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time considering partial information obtained from the process sampling at regular epochs. We prove the optimality of the control limit policy, i.e., the process is stopped and the search for assignable causes is initiated when the posterior probability that the process is out of control exceeds a control limit. An algorithm in the semi-Markov decision process framework is developed to calculate the optimal control limit and the corresponding average cost. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the developed optimal control chart and to compare it with the traditional u-chart.

Keywords: Bayesian u-chart, economic design, optimal stopping, semi-Markov decision process, statistical process control

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Authors: M. Bahgat, H. A. Hanafy, S. Lakdawala

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Clustering phenomenon of pellets was observed frequently in shaft processes operating at higher temperatures. Clustering is a result of the growth of fibrous iron precipitates (iron whiskers) that become hooked to each other and finally become crystallized during the initial stages of metallization. If the pellet clustering is pronounced, sometimes leads to blocking inside the furnace and forced shutdown takes place. This work clarifies further the relation between metallic iron whisker growth and iron ore mineralogy. Various pellet sizes (6 – 12.0 & +12.0 mm) from three different ores (A, B & C) were (completely and partially) reduced at 985 ^oC with H₂/CO gas mixture using thermos-gravimetric technique. It was found that reducibility increases by decreasing the iron ore pellet’s size. Ore (A) has the highest reducibility than ore (B) and ore (C). Increasing the iron ore pellet’s size leads to increase the probability of metallic iron whisker formation. Ore (A) has the highest tendency for metallic iron whisker formation than ore (B) and ore (C). The reduction reactions for all iron ores A, B and C are mainly controlled by diffusion reaction mechanism.

Keywords: shaft furnace, cluster, metallic iron whisker, mineralogy, ferrous metallurgy

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Authors: Asad Naeem, Minsung Kim, Jinkoo Kim

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In this work, the effectiveness of damped cable systems (DCS) on the mitigation of earthquake-induced response of a framed structure is investigated. The seismic performance of DCS is investigated using fragility analysis and life cycle cost evaluation of an existing building retrofitted with DCS, and the results are compared with those of the structure retrofitted with viscous dampers. The comparison of the analysis results reveals that, due to the self-centering capability of the DCS, residual displacement becomes nearly zero in the structure retrofitted with the DCS. According to the fragility analysis, the structure retrofitted with the DCS has smaller probability of reaching a limit states compared to the structure with viscous dampers. It is also observed that both the initial and life cycle costs of the DCS method required for the seismic retrofit is smaller than those of the structure retrofitted with viscous dampers. Acknowledgment: This research was supported by a grant (17CTAP-C132889-01) from Technology Advancement Research Program (TARP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport of Korean government.

Keywords: damped cable system, seismic retrofit, self centering, fragility analysis

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Authors: O. D. Ohijeagbon, Oluseyi O. Ajayi, M. Ogbonnaya, Ahmeh Attabo

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This study analyzed the electricity generation potential from wind at seven sites spread across seven states of the North-Central region of Nigeria. Twenty-one years (1987 to 2007) wind speed data at a height of 10m were assessed from the Nigeria Meteorological Department, Oshodi. The data were subjected to different statistical tests and also compared with the two-parameter Weibull probability density function. The outcome shows that the monthly average wind speeds ranged between 2.2 m/s in November for Bida and 10.1 m/s in December for Jos. The yearly average ranged between 2.1m/s in 1987 for Bida and 11.8 m/s in 2002 for Jos. Also, the power density for each site was determined to range between 29.66 W/m2 for Bida and 864.96 W/m2 for Jos, Two parameters (k and c) of the Weibull distribution were found to range between 2.3 in Lokoja and 6.5 in Jos for k, while c ranged between 2.9 in Bida and 9.9m/s in Jos. These outcomes points to the fact that wind speeds at Jos, Minna, Ilorin, Makurdi and Abuja are compatible with the cut-in speeds of modern wind turbines and hence, may be economically feasible for wind-to-electricity at and above the height of 10 m. The study further assessed the potential and economic viability of standalone wind generation systems for off-grid rural communities located in each of the studied sites. A specific electric load profile was developed to suite hypothetic communities, each consisting of 200 homes, a school and a community health center. Assessment of the design that will optimally meet the daily load demand with a loss of load probability (LOLP) of 0.01 was performed, considering 2 stand-alone applications of wind and diesel. The diesel standalone system (DSS) was taken as the basis of comparison since the experimental locations have no connection to a distribution network. The HOMER® software optimizing tool was utilized to determine the optimal combination of system components that will yield the lowest life cycle cost. Sequel to the analysis for rural community utilization, a Distributed Generation (DG) analysis that considered the possibility of generating wind power in the MW range in order to take advantage of Nigeria’s tariff regime for embedded generation was carried out for each site. The DG design incorporated each community of 200 homes, freely catered for and offset from the excess electrical energy generated above the minimum requirement for sales to a nearby distribution grid. Wind DG systems were found suitable and viable in producing environmentally friendly energy in terms of life cycle cost and levelised value of producing energy at Jos ($0.14/kWh), Minna ($0.12/kWh), Ilorin ($0.09/kWh), Makurdi ($0.09/kWh), and Abuja ($0.04/kWh) at a particluar turbine hub height. These outputs reveal the value retrievable from the project after breakeven point as a function of energy consumed Based on the results, the study demonstrated that including renewable energy in the rural development plan will enhance fast upgrade of the rural communities.

Keywords: wind speed, wind power, distributed generation, cost per kilowatt-hour, clean energy, North-Central Nigeria

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Authors: Shima Soltanzadeh, Mohammad Hosain Fazel Zarandi, Mojtaba Barzegar Astanjin

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Diagnosis of male infertility by the laboratory tests is expensive and, sometimes it is intolerable for patients. Filling out the questionnaire and then using classification method can be the first step in decision-making process, so only in the cases with a high probability of infertility we can use the laboratory tests. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of four classification methods including naive Bayesian, neural network, logistic regression and fuzzy c-means clustering as a classification, in the diagnosis of male infertility due to environmental factors. Since the data are unbalanced, the ROC curves are most suitable method for the comparison. In this paper, we also have selected the more important features using a filtering method and examined the impact of this feature reduction on the performance of each methods; generally, most of the methods had better performance after applying the filter. We have showed that using fuzzy c-means clustering as a classification has a good performance according to the ROC curves and its performance is comparable to other classification methods like logistic regression.

Keywords: classification, fuzzy c-means, logistic regression, Naive Bayesian, neural network, ROC curve

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Authors: Tegan H. Emerson, Colin C. Olson, George Stantchev, Jason A. Edelberg, Michael Wilson

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Detecting small targets at range is difficult because there is not enough spatial information present in an image sub-region containing the target to use correlation-based methods to differentiate it from dynamic confusers present in the scene. Moreover, this lack of spatial information also disqualifies the use of most state-of-the-art deep learning image-based classifiers. Here, we use characteristics of target tracks extracted from video sequences as data from which to derive distinguishing topological features that help robustly differentiate targets of interest from confusers. In particular, we calculate persistent homology from time-delayed embeddings of dynamic statistics calculated from motion tracks extracted from a wide field-of-view video stream. In short, we use topological methods to extract features related to target motion dynamics that are useful for classification and disambiguation and show that small targets can be detected at range with high probability.

Keywords: motion tracks, persistence images, time-delay embedding, topological data analysis

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Authors: Ritika Jain, Rajnish Kumar

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The Department of Public Enterprises had made submissions of Self Evaluation Reports, for the purpose of corporate governance, mandatory for all central government owned enterprises. Despite this, an alarming 40% of the enterprises did not do so. This study examines the impact of external policy tools and internal firm-specific factors on corporate governance of central public sector enterprises (CPSEs). We use a dataset of all manufacturing and non-financial services owned by the central government of India for the year 2010-11. Using probit, ordered logit and Heckman’s sample selection models, the study finds that the probability and quality of corporate governance is positively influenced by the CPSE getting into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the central government of India, and hence, enjoying more autonomy in terms of day to day operations. Besides these, internal factors, including bigger size and lower debt size contribute significantly to better corporate governance.

Keywords: corporate governance, central public sector enterprises (CPSEs), sample selection, Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), ordered logit, disinvestment

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Authors: Patarawan Sangnawakij, Sa-Aat Niwitpong

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In this paper, we proposed two new confidence intervals for the difference of coefficients of variation, CIw and CIs, in two independent gamma distributions. These proposed confidence intervals using the close form method of variance estimation which was presented by Donner and Zou (2010) based on concept of Wald and Score confidence interval, respectively. Monte Carlo simulation study is used to evaluate the performance, coverage probability and expected length, of these confidence intervals. The results indicate that values of coverage probabilities of the new confidence interval based on Wald and Score are satisfied the nominal coverage and close to nominal level 0.95 in various situations, particularly, the former proposed confidence interval is better when sample sizes are small. Moreover, the expected lengths of the proposed confidence intervals are nearly difference when sample sizes are moderate to large. Therefore, in this study, the confidence interval for the difference of coefficients of variation which based on Wald is preferable than the other one confidence interval.

Keywords: confidence interval, score’s interval, wald’s interval, coefficient of variation, gamma distribution, simulation study

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Authors: Piyush Swami, Bijaya Ketan Panigrahi, Sneh Anand, Manvir Bhatia, Tapan Gandhi

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Visual inspection of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals to detect epileptic signals is very challenging and time-consuming task even for any expert neurophysiologist. This problem is most challenging in under-developed and developing countries due to shortage of skilled neurophysiologists. In the past, notable research efforts have gone in trying to automate the seizure detection process. However, due to high false alarm detections and complexity of the models developed so far, have vastly delimited their practical implementation. In this paper, we present a novel scheme for epileptic seizure detection using empirical mode decomposition technique. The intrinsic mode functions obtained were then used to calculate the standard deviations. This was followed by probability density based classifier to discriminate between non-ictal and ictal patterns in EEG signals. The model presented here demonstrated very high classification rates ( > 97%) without compromising the statistical performance. The computation timings for each testing phase were also very low ( < 0.029 s) which makes this model ideal for practical applications.

Keywords: electroencephalogram (EEG), epilepsy, ictal patterns, empirical mode decomposition

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Authors: Jasminka Mujic, Karin Milde-Langosch, Volkmar Mueller, Mirza Suljagic, Tea Becirevic, Jozo Coric, Daria Ler

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MACC1 (metastasis associated in colon cancer-1) is a prognostic biomarker for tumor progression, metastasis, and survival of a variety of solid cancers. MACC1 also causes tumor growth in xenograft models and acts as a master regulator of the HGF/MET signaling pathway. In breast cancer, the expression of MACC1 determined by immunohistochemistry was significantly associated with positive lymph node status and advanced clinical stage. The aim of the present study was to further investigate the prognostic or predictive value of MACC1 expression in breast cancer using western blot analysis and immunohistochemistry. The results of our study have shown that high MACC1 expression in breast cancer is associated with shorter disease-free survival, especially in node-negative tumors. The MACC1 might be a suitable biomarker to select patients with a higher probability of recurrence which might benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. Our results support a biologic role and potentially open the perspective for the use of MACC1 as predictive biomarker for treatment decision in breast cancer patients.

Keywords: breast cancer, biomarker, HGF/MET, MACC1

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Authors: Yasaswi Vengalasetti, Jacob Eisenach, Jay Bhattacharya

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Seroprevalence studies can provide an estimation of the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), the probability of death given infection. Measuring the seroprevalence and reported deaths of an area within a given time frame an IFR can be estimated. With this IFR calculation, we can then observe COVID-19 death figures in different countries around the world and estimate the number of cases since the onset of the pandemic. There is a large range for estimated COVID-19 infections across different countries. This ranged from 0.659 million infections in Hong Kong to 277 million infections in India. The largest estimated share of the population infected is 63% in Peru and the lowest is 3% in Norway. For younger populations, COVID-19 is most fatal in South America; for older populations, it is most fatal in North America. The Asian regions stand out with significantly lower IFRs in older populations: at 80 years old, COVID-19 is about three times as fatal than in South Asia and about twelve times as fatal than in East Asia. The weighted average for the share of the population infected, the sum of infections divided by the sum of populations across all countries, is 23%.

Keywords: epidemiology, seroprevalence, covid-19, infection fatality rate

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Authors: Saeed Yazdani, Shahrbanoo Bagheri, Sepideh Nikravesh

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Considering the importance and scarcity of water resources, the efficient management of water resources is of great importance. Adoption of modern irrigation technology is considered to be a key of increasing the efficiency of water used in agriculture. Policy makers have implemented several ways to induce the adoption of new irrigation technology. The empirical studies show that farmers are reluctant to utilize the use of new irrigation methods. This study aims to assess factors affecting on farmer’s decision on the application of water saving technologies with emphasize on crop price variation and water sources. A Logit model was employed to examine the impact of different variables on use of water saving technology. The required data gathered from a sample of 204 farmers in the year 2012. The results indicate that different variables such as crop price variability, water supply source, high-value crops, farm size, income, education, membership in cooperatives have a positive effect and variables such as age and number of plots have a negative impact on the probability of adopting modern water saving technologies.

Keywords: irrigation, water, water saving technology, scarcity

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Authors: Nisha Harry

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The study discussed in this article sought to assess whether a sense of professional efficacy mediates the relationship between personal factors and career adaptability. A quantitative cross-sectional survey approach was followed. A non–probability sample of (N = 409) of which predominantly early career and permanently employed black females in call centres in Africa participated in this study. In order to assess personal factors, the participants completed sense of meaningfulness and emotional intelligence measures. Measures of professional efficacy and career adaptability were also completed. The results of the mediational analysis revealed that professional efficacy significantly mediates the meaningfulness (sense of coherence) and career adaptability relationship, but not the emotional intelligence–career adaptability relationship. Call centre agents with professional efficacy are likely to be more work engaged as a result of their sense of meaningfulness and emotional intelligence.

Keywords: call centre, professional efficacy, career adaptability, emotional intelligence

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Authors: Ahmed Shariful Alam, Abu Hena M. Mustafa Kamal, M. Abdul Rahman, M. Nasmus Sakib Khan Shabbir, Atiqul Islam

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According to the rules of quantum mechanics there is a non-vanishing probability of for an electron to tunnel through a thin insulating barrier or a thin capacitor which is not possible according to the laws of classical physics. Tunneling of electron through a thin insulating barrier or tunnel junction is a random event and the magnitude of current flowing due to the tunneling of electron is very low. As the current flowing through a Single Electron Transistor (SET) is the result of electron tunneling through tunnel junctions of its source and drain the supply voltage requirement is also very low. As a result, the power consumption across a Single Electron Transistor is ultra-low in comparison to that of a MOSFET. In this paper simulations have been done with PSPICE for an inverter built with both SETs and MOSFETs. 35mV supply voltage was used for a SET built inverter circuit and the supply voltage used for a CMOS inverter was 3.5V.

Keywords: ITRS, enhancement type MOSFET, island, DC analysis, transient analysis, power consumption, background charge co-tunneling

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Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Jin-O Kim

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As the penetration of Energy Storage System (ESS) increases in the power system due to higher performance and lower cost than ever, ESS is expanding its role to the ancillary service as well as the storage of extra energy from the intermittent renewable energy resources. For multi-ESS with different capacity and SOC level each other, it is required to make the optimal schedule of SOC level use the multi-ESS effectively. This paper proposes the energy allocation method for the multiple battery ESS with reliability constraint, in order to make the ESS discharge the required energy as long as possible. A simple but effective method is proposed in this paper, to satisfy the power for the spinning reserve requirement while improving the system reliability. Modelling of ESS is also proposed, and reliability is evaluated by using the combined reliability model which includes the proposed ESS model and conventional generation one. In the case study, it can be observed that the required power is distributed to each ESS adequately and accordingly, the SOC is scheduled to improve the reliability indices such as Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE).

Keywords: multiple energy storage system (MESS), energy allocation method, SOC schedule, reliability constraints

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Authors: Anocha Kimkong

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This research paper, based on demographic variables, is aimed to study the behaviour of bookkeeping for household accounts of residents living in urban communities in Dusit District, Bangkok and to investigate factors that affected the behavior of bookkeeping. By use of non proportional stratified sampling technique of probability sampling, the research had a total of 247 samples. The systematic sampling technique was also utilized by selecting one household out of every 3 households. The demographic findings reported female respondents as the majority with an average age between 26-35 years old, having married status and having children. The respondents earn a living by selling, with an average income per month of between 5,001-15,000 Baht. Most of the families rent a house and each family have approximately 3-4 members. Furthermore, most of the household respondents used to be trained to do bookkeeping for household accounts. In addition, the factors in affecting the residents’ behaviour of doing household account bookkeeping included a dislike of numbers, inaccuracy of recording, availability of accounting counselors in the communities, people’s participation in trainings arranged by outside organizations.

Keywords: household account, bookkeeping, urban community, demographic variables

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Authors: Ankita Shukla

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The promotion and support of breastfeeding is a global priority with benefits for maternal and infant health, especially in low income and middle-income countries where the probability of child survival is still very low. In India too it has been well established that breastfeeding increases the survival of the child. However, the breastfeeding levels are quite low in the country. Examining the socio-economic inequality in breastfeeding pattern can help to the causal pathways responsible for early breastfeeding termination. This paper tries to understand the socio-economic differential in breastfeeding patterns among Indian women. Data is used from nationally representative National Family Health Survey-3. Using Cox regression modelling techniques, the analysis found that the likelihood of having small breastfeeding duration increased with increasing household wealth status similarly education also has negative effect on breastfeeding duration. The considerable gender difference is also visible in India, likelihood of stopping breastfeeding was significantly higher among female children compared with male children. To understand the cultural factors or norms responsible for the early termination of breastfeeding more in depth/qualitative studies are needed.

Keywords: breastfeeding, India, socio-economic inequality, women education

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Authors: Ludivine Saint-Mard, Masato Nakajima, Gloria Senfaute

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In areas with low to moderate seismicity, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis frequently uses a Poisson approach, which assumes independence in time and space of events to determine the annual probability of earthquake occurrence. Nevertheless, in countries with high seismic rate, such as Japan, it is frequently use non-poissonian model which assumes that next earthquake occurrence depends on the date of previous one. The objective of this paper is to apply a non-poissonian models in a region of low to moderate seismicity to get a feedback on the following questions: can we overcome the lack of data to determine some key parameters?, and can we deal with uncertainties to apply largely this methodology on an industrial context?. The Brownian-Passage-Time model was applied to a fault located in France and conclude that even if the lack of data can be overcome with some calculations, the amount of uncertainties and number of scenarios leads to a numerous branches in PSHA, making this method difficult to apply on a large scale of low to moderate seismicity areas and in an industrial context.

Keywords: probabilistic seismic hazard, non-poissonian model, earthquake occurrence, low seismicity

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Authors: Davod Ahmadigheidari

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The main objective of this study was to explore prevalence of anthropometric indicators as well the factors associated with the anthropometric indications in Mali. Data on 2015, downloaded from the website of Unicef, were analyzed. A total of 16,467 women (ages 15-49 years) and 16,467 children (ages 0-59 months) were selected for the sample. Different statistical analyses, such as descriptive, crosstabs and binary logistic regression form the basis of this study. Child anthropometric indicators (i.e., wasting, stunting, underweight and BMI for age) were used as the dependent variables. SPSS Syntax from WHO was used to create anthropometric indicators. Different factors, such as child’s sex, child’s age groups, child’s diseases symptoms (i.e., diarrhea, cough and fever), maternal education, household wealth index and area of residence were used as independent variables. Results showed more than forty percent of Malian households were in nutritional crises (stunting (42%) and underweight (34%). Findings from logistic regression analyses indicated that low score of wealth index, low maternal education and experience of diarrhea in last two weeks increase the probability of child malnutrition.

Keywords: Mali, wasting, stunting, underweight, BMI for age and wealth index

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Authors: S. M. Ashikur Elahee, Md. Zahidur Rahman, Md. Shofiqur Rahman

Abstract:

This study evaluated the impact of different water interventions under WASH program on access of household's to safe drinking water. Following survey method, the study was carried out in two Upazila of South-west coastal region of Bangladesh namely Koyra from Khulna and Shymnagar from Satkhira district. Being an explanatory study, a total of 200 household's selected applying random sampling technique were interviewed using a structured interview schedule. The predicted probability suggests that around 62 percent household's are out of year-round access to safe drinking water whereby, only 25 percent household's have access at SPHERE standard (913 Liters/per person/per year). Besides, majority (78 percent) of the household's have not accessed at both indicators simultaneously. The distance from household residence to the water source varies from 0 to 25 kilometer with an average distance of 2.03 kilometers. The study also reveals that the increase in monthly income around BDT 1,000 leads to additional 11 liters (coefficient 0.01 at p < 0.1) consumption of safe drinking water for a person/year. As expected, lining up time has significant negative relationship with dependent variables i.e., for higher lining up time, the probability of getting access for both SPHERE standard and year round access variables becomes lower. According to ordinary least square (OLS) regression results, water consumption decreases at 93 liters for per person/year of a household if one member is added to that household. Regarding water consumption intensity, ordered logistic regression (OLR) model shows that one-minute increase of lining up time for water collection tends to reduce water consumption intensity. On the other hand, as per OLS regression results, for one-minute increase of lining up time, the water consumption decreases by around 8 liters. Considering access to Deep Tube Well (DTW) as a reference dummy, in OLR, the household under Pond Sand Filter (PSF), Shallow Tube Well (STW), Reverse Osmosis (RO) and Rainwater Harvester System (RWHS) are respectively 37 percent, 29 percent, 61 percent and 27 percent less likely to ensure year round access of water consumption. In line of health impact, different type of water born diseases like diarrhea, cholera, and typhoid are common among the coastal community caused by microbial impurities i.e., Bacteria, Protozoa. High turbidity and TDS in pond water caused by reduction of water depth, presence of suspended particle and inorganic salt stimulate the growth of bacteria, protozoa, and algae causes affecting health hazard. Meanwhile, excessive growth of Algae in pond water caused by excessive nitrate in drinking water adversely effects on child health. In lieu of ensuring access at SPHERE standard, we need to increase the number of water interventions at reasonable distance, preferably a half kilometer away from the dwelling place, ensuring community peoples involved with its installation process where collectively owned water intervention is found more effective than privately owned. In addition, a demand-responsive approach to supply of piped water should be adopted to allow consumer demand to guide investment in domestic water supply in future.

Keywords: access, impact, safe drinking water, Sphere standard, water interventions

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Authors: Woosik Jang, Seung H. Han

Abstract:

The optimal partner selection is one of the most important factors to pursue the project’s success. However, in practice, there is a gaps in perception of success depending on the role of the enterprises for the projects. This frequently makes a relations between the partner evaluation results and the project’s final performances, insufficiently. To meet this challenges, this study proposes a strategic partner evaluation model considering the perception gaps between enterprises. A total 3 times of survey was performed; factor selection, perception gap analysis, and case application. After then total 8 factors are extracted from independent sample t-test and Borich model to set-up the evaluation model. Finally, through the case applications, only 16 enterprises are re-evaluated to “Good” grade among the 22 “Good” grade from existing model. On the contrary, 12 enterprises are re-evaluated to “Good” grade among the 19 “Bad” grade from existing model. Consequently, the perception gaps based evaluation model is expected to improve the decision making quality and also enhance the probability of project’s success.

Keywords: partner evaluation model, project based enterprise, decision making, perception gap, project performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Wangshi Yong, Wei Shi, Jing Zou, Qiang Li, Yilin Tian

Abstract:

With the advancement of the reform of China’s housing security system, the impact is becoming increasingly profound. This paper explores the relationship between the housing security system and household entrepreneurship on the 2017 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and conducts a large number of robustness checks, including PSM and IV estimation. The results show that the assistance of the housing security system will significantly promote family entrepreneurship, increasing the probability of entrepreneurship by 2%. Its internal mechanism is mainly achieved by relaxing liquidity constraints and increasing household social capital. However, the risk preference effect has not existed. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive impact of the housing security system on family entrepreneurship is mainly reflected in areas with high housing prices and incomes, as well as households with long-term security and social or commercial insurance. Meanwhile, it also verifies that the positive externalities of the housing security system will also positively affect active entrepreneurial motivation, entrepreneurial intensity, and entrepreneurial innovation.

Keywords: the housing security system, household entrepreneurship, social capital, liquidity constraints, risk preference

Procedia PDF Downloads 79