Search results for: macroeconomic uncertainty

Authors: David Yartel, Johnmark Ampomah Mensah Fobi, Ernest Yeboah Acheampong, Sintim Musah

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Football has gone through a series of technological reforms targeted at improving the game for its audience. Yet, promote sanity of the game led to the introduction of the video assistant referee (VAR) to ‘check’ or ‘review’ an incident to clarify incidents and communicate the outcome to the referee and the fans. This is to reduce controversies regarding incidents on the pitch of play. In this study, we seek to survey the views of football fans to understand their perception of the video assistant referee, whether it has brought sanity or reduce the uncertainty regarding the decisions after reviews. The exploratory study focuses on 420 fans arbitrarily sampled on the university campuses to answer questionnaires based on the introduction of the video assistant referee. Results show that the VAR has interrupted the flow of the game, dropping passion, increased controversies including decisions from the referees’ call room leading to ensuing fans conflict, especially when it is against their team and vice versa. The study concludes by addressing some of their concerns as the VAR has come to minimise perceptions of incidents and engender fairness for teams.

Keywords: football fans, football incidents, football match, video assistant referee, technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Elio El Kahi, Michel Khouri, Olivier Deck, Pierre Rahme, Rasool Mehdizadeh

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Recent developments in civil engineering create multiple interaction problems between the soil and the structure. One of the major problems is the impact of ground movements on buildings. Consequently, managing risks associated with these movements, requires a determination of the different influencing factors and a specific knowledge of their variability/uncertainty. The main purpose of this research is to study the behavior of structures submitted to differential settlement, in order to assess their vulnerability, taking into consideration the different sources of uncertainties. Analytical approach is applied to investigate on one hand the influence of these uncertainties that are related to the soil, and on the other hand the structure stiffness variation with the presence of openings and the movement transmitted between them as related to the origin and shape of the free-field movement. Results reveal the effect of taking these uncertainties into consideration, and specify the dominant and most significant parameters that control the ground movement associated with the Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) phenomenon.

Keywords: analytical approach, building, damage, differential settlement, soil-structure interaction, uncertainties

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Authors: Mohamad Saab, Sidi Souvi

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In a major nuclear accident, the released fission products (FPs) and the structural materials are likely to influence the transport of iodine in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). So far, the thermodynamic data on cesium and silver species used to estimate the magnitude of FP release show some discrepancies, data are scarce and not reliable. For this reason, it is crucial to review the thermodynamic values related to cesium and silver materials. To this end, we have used state-of-the-art quantum chemical methods to compute the formation enthalpies and entropies of AgHMoO₄, CsHMoO₄, and AgCsMoO₄ in the gas phase. Different quantum chemical methods have been investigated (DFT and CCSD(T)) in order to predict the geometrical parameters and the energetics including the correlation energy. The geometries were optimized with TPSSh-5%HF method, followed by a single point calculation of the total electronic energies using the CCSD(T) wave function method. We thus propose with a final uncertainty of about 2 kJmol⁻¹ standard enthalpies of formation of AgHMoO₄, CsHMoO₄, and AgCsMoO₄.

Keywords: nuclear accident, ASTEC code, thermochemical database, quantum chemical methods

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Authors: Dongkwon Han, Sangho Kim, Sunil Kwon

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Unconventional gas resources have dramatically changed the future energy landscape. Unlike conventional gas resources, the key challenges in unconventional gas have been the requirement that applies to advanced approaches for production forecasting due to uncertainty and complexity of fluid flow. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) model which integrates machine learning and data-driven approach was developed to predict productivity in shale gas. The database of 129 wells of Eagle Ford shale basin used for testing and training of the ANN model. The Input data related to hydraulic fracturing, well completion and productivity of shale gas were selected and the output data is a cumulative production. The performance of the ANN using all data sets, clustering and variables importance (VI) models were compared in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). ANN model using all data sets, clustering, and VI were obtained as 44.22%, 10.08% (cluster 1), 5.26% (cluster 2), 6.35%(cluster 3), and 32.23% (ANN VI), 23.19% (SVM VI), respectively. The results showed that the pre-trained ANN model provides more accurate results than the ANN model using all data sets.

Keywords: unconventional gas, artificial neural network, machine learning, clustering, variables importance

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Authors: Amanda Burrell, Tonia Gary, David Wright, Kumara Ward

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This paper explores the concept of academic identity as it relates to the lecture, in particular, the digitized lecture delivered to a camera, in the absence of a student audience. Many academics have the performance aspect of the role thrust upon them with little or no training. For the purpose of this study, we look at the performance of the academic identity and examine tailored film presence coaching for its contributions toward academic identity, specifically in relation to feelings of self-confidence and diminishment of discomfort or stage fright. The case is articulated through the lens of scholar-practitioners, using expert facilitated participatory action research. It demonstrates in our sample of experienced academics, all reported some feelings of uncertainty about presenting lectures to camera prior to coaching. We share how power poses and reframing fear, produced improvements in the ease and competency of all participants. We share exactly how this insight could be adapted for self-coaching by any academic when called to present to a camera and consider the relationship between this and academic identity.

Keywords: academic identity, digitized lecture, embodied learning, performance coaching

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Authors: Katharina Fellnhofer

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The more information and knowledge that technology provides, the more important are profoundly human skills like intuition, the skill of using nonconscious information. As our world becomes more complex, shaken by crises, and characterized by uncertainty, time pressure, ambiguity, and rapidly changing conditions, intuition is increasingly recognized as a key human asset. However, due to methodological limitations of sample size or time frame or a lack of real-world or cross-cultural scope, precisely how to measure intuition when facing risks on a nonconscious level remains unclear. In light of the measurement challenge related to intuition’s nonconscious nature, a technique is introduced to measure intuition via hidden images as nonconscious additional information to trigger intuition. This technique has been tested in a within-subject fully online design with 62,721 real-world investment decisions made by 657 subjects in Europe and the United States. Bayesian models highlight the technique’s potential to measure skill at using nonconscious information for conscious decision making. Over the long term, solving the mysteries of intuition and mastering its use could be of immense value in personal and organizational decision-making contexts.

Keywords: cognition, intuition, investment decisions, methodology

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Authors: Jalal Abdulkareem Sultan, Abdulhakeem Luqman Hasan

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With the development of health care systems competition, hospitals face more and more pressures. Meanwhile, resource allocation has a vital effect on achieving competitive advantages in hospitals. Selecting the appropriate number of beds is one of the most important sections in hospital management. However, in real situation, bed allocation selection is a multiple objective problem about different items with vagueness and randomness of the data. It is very complex. Hence, research about bed allocation problem is relatively scarce under considering multiple departments, nursing hours, and stochastic information about arrival and service of patients. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy multiobjective bed allocation model for overcoming uncertainty and multiple departments. Fuzzy objectives and weights are simultaneously applied to help the managers to select the suitable beds about different departments. The proposed model is solved by using Artificial Bee Colony (ABC), which is a very effective algorithm. The paper describes an application of the model, dealing with a public hospital in Iraq. The results related that fuzzy multi-objective model was presented suitable framework for bed allocation and optimum use.

Keywords: bed allocation problem, fuzzy logic, artificial bee colony, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah, Huda M. Abdul Abbas

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Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.

Keywords: short term load forecasting, prediction interval, type 2 fuzzy logic systems, electric, computer systems engineering

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Authors: David Lall, Vikram Vishal, P. G. Ranjith

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Numerical modeling of gas production from hydrate-bearing reservoirs requires the solution of various thermal, hydrological, chemical, and mechanical phenomena in a coupled manner. Among the various reservoir properties that influence gas production estimates, the distribution of permeability across the domain is one of the most crucial parameters since it determines both heat transfer and mass transfer. The aspect of permeability in hydrate-bearing reservoirs is particularly complex compared to conventional reservoirs since it depends on the saturation of gas hydrates and hence, is dynamic during production. The dependence of permeability on hydrate saturation is mathematically represented using permeability-reduction models, which are specific to the expected morphology of hydrate accumulations (such as grain-coating or pore-filling hydrates). In this study, we demonstrate the impact of various permeability-reduction models, and consequently, different morphologies of hydrate deposits on the estimates of gas production using depressurization at the reservoir scale. We observe significant differences in produced water volumes and cumulative mass of produced gas between the models, thereby highlighting the uncertainty in production behavior arising from the ambiguity in the prevalent gas hydrate morphology.

Keywords: gas hydrate morphology, multi-scale modeling, THMC, fluid flow in porous media

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Authors: Chuanbo Xu, Xinying Li, Gejirifu De, Yunna Wu

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Energy Internet (EI) is a new form that deeply integrates the Internet and the entire energy process from production to consumption. The assessment of energy efficient performance is of vital importance for the long-term sustainable development of EI project. Although the newly proposed fuzzy integrated cloud evaluation algorithm considers the randomness of uncertainty, it relies too much on the experience and knowledge of experts. Fortunately, the enrichment of EI data has enabled the utilization of data-driven methods. Therefore, the main purpose of this work is to assess the energy efficient of park-level EI by using a combination of a data-driven method with the fuzzy integrated cloud evaluation algorithm. Firstly, the indicators for the energy efficient are identified through literature review. Secondly, the artificial neural network (ANN)-based data-driven method is employed to cluster the values of indicators. Thirdly, the energy efficient of EI project is calculated through the fuzzy integrated cloud evaluation algorithm. Finally, the applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by a case study.

Keywords: energy efficient, energy internet, data-driven, fuzzy integrated evaluation, cloud model

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Authors: Mohammad Molavi, Mohsen Nourai

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The emancipation of the Muslim nation from the numerous problems and achieving to the decent position is one of the old desires of Muslim. Increasing efforts to realize this wish based on religious and rational teachings is the main goal for Muslim reformist. Almost all scholars relying on the Qur'an teaching emphasize on the significant role of Islamic Unity for the revival of Islamic civilization. But their methods for achieving to the Islamic Unity are not so clear. Generally speaking, failure to provide specific solutions, uncertainty in the face of universal literature in politics and governance, and etc. are some of the challenges facing the Islamic Unity.This paper via the descriptive-analytical method and by focusing on theoretical aspects of the subject has attempted to analyze Imam Khomeini points of view. Research findings show that there are several significant differences between Imam Khomeini's idea of Islamic Unity and ideas like 'Pan-Turkism', 'Pan-Arabism' and so on. Some of Imam Khomeini's principles in this regard are as follow: Strategic approach to unity, relying on juridical certain and systematic attitude, comprehensive approach, Holistic, rationality, and moderation. So, there is no any generality speaking or ambiguity in Khomeini's thought.

Keywords: Qur'an, Imam Khomeini, islamic unity, islamic nation, islamic political thought

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Authors: Nilesh Pancholi, Mangal Bhatt

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This paper highlights comparative results of traditional FMECA and multi-factor decision-making approach based on “Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)” for aluminum wire rolling mill plant. The suggested study is carried out to overcome the limitations of FMECA by assigning the scores against each failure modes in crisp values to evaluate the criticalities of the failure modes without uncertainty. The primary findings of the paper are that sudden impact on the rolls seems to be most critical failure cause and high contact stresses due to rolling & sliding action of mesh to be least critical failure cause. It is suggested to modify the current control practices with proper maintenance strategy based on achieved maintainability criticality index (MCI). The outcome of the study will be helpful in deriving optimized maintenance plan to maximize the performance of continuous process industry.

Keywords: reliability, maintenance, FMECA, TOPSIS, process industry

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Authors: Peyman Sindareh Esfahani, Jeffery Kurt Pieper

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In this paper, the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) for discrete-time linear systems in linear fractional transformation form with structured uncertainty and norm-bounded disturbance is investigated. The problem of minimization of the cost function for MPC design is converted to minimization of the worst case of the cost function. Then, this problem is reduced to minimization of an upper bound of the cost function subject to a terminal inequality satisfying the l₂-norm of the closed loop system. The characteristic of the linear fractional transformation system is taken into account, and by using some mathematical tools, the robust predictive controller design problem is turned into a linear matrix inequality minimization problem. Afterwards, a formulation which includes an integrator to improve the performance of the proposed robust model predictive controller in steady state condition is studied. The validity of the approaches is illustrated through a robust control benchmark problem.

Keywords: linear fractional transformation, linear matrix inequality, robust model predictive control, state feedback control

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: William Wong, Zakaria Alomari, Hon Ching Lai, Zhida Li

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Modern-day information security depends on implementing Diffie-Hellman, which requires the generation of prime numbers. Because the number of primes is infinite, it is impractical to store prime numbers for use, and therefore, primality tests are indispensable in modern-day information security. A primality test is a test to determine whether a number is prime or composite. There are two types of primality tests, which are deterministic tests and probabilistic tests. Deterministic tests are adopting algorithms that provide a definite answer whether a given number is prime or composite. While in probabilistic tests, a probabilistic result would be provided, there is a degree of uncertainty. In this paper, we review three probabilistic tests: the Fermat Primality Test, the Miller-Rabin Test, and the Baillie-PSW Test, as well as one deterministic test, the Agrawal-Kayal-Saxena (AKS) Test. Furthermore, we do an analysis of these tests. All of the reviews discussed are not based on the Elliptic Curve. The analysis demonstrates that, in the majority of real-world scenarios, the Baillie- PSW test’s favorability stems from its typical operational complexity of O(log 3n) and its capacity to deliver accurate results for numbers below 2^64.

Keywords: primality tests, Fermat’s primality test, Miller-Rabin primality test, Baillie-PSW primality test, AKS primality test

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Authors: Shu Tao, Rong Wang, Huizhong Shen, Ye Huang

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High-resolution mapping of fuel combustion is essential for reducing uncertainties in assessments of greenhouse gases and air pollutant emissions. Such inventories provide valuable information for inferring carbon sinks, modeling pollutant transport, and developing control strategies. Previous inventories included only a few fuel types and were derived using national population proxies which may distort the geographical variation within countries. In this study, a global 0.1 degree by 0.1 degree geo-referenced inventory of fuel combustion (PKU-FUEL-2007) was developed for 64 fuel sub-types along with uncertainty analysis for the year 2007. Sub-national fuel consumption of large countries and major power-station locations were used. The disaggregation error can be reduced significantly by using the sub-nationally energy data, because the uneven distribution of per-capita fuel consumption within countries is taken into consideration. The PKU-FUEL was used to generate global emission inventories of CO2 (PKU-CO2-2007), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PKU-PAHs-2007), and black carbons (PKU-BC-2007). Atmospheric transport modeling and expsoure assessment were conducted for BC and PAHs based on the inventory.

Keywords: fuel, emission, BC, PAHs, atmospheric transport, exposure

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Authors: Maya Jaber

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In today's ever-changing world, organizational leaders will need to transform their organizations to meet the demands they face from employees, consumers, local and federal governments, and the global market. Change agents and leaders will need a new paradigm of thinking for creative problem solving and innovation in a time of uncertainty. A new framework that is developed from Design Science Research foundations with holistic design thinking methodologies (HTDM) and action research approaches has been developed through Dr. Jaber’s research. It combines these philosophies into a three-step process that can be utilized in practice for any sustainability, change, or project management applications. This framework was developed to assist in the pedagogy for the implementation of her holistic strategy formalized framework Integral Design Thinking (IDT). Her work focuses on real world application for the streamlining and adoption of initiatives into organizational culture transformation. This paper will discuss the foundations of this philosophy and the methods for utilization in practice developed in Dr. Jaber's research.

Keywords: design science research, action research, critical thinking, design thinking, organizational transformation, sustainability management, organizational culture change

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Authors: Abderafi Charki, David Bigaud

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The aim of this oral speach is to present the PVMODREL© (PhotoVoltaic MODule RELiability) new software developed in the University of Angers. This new tool permits us to evaluate the lifetime and reliability of a PV module whatever its geographical location and environmental conditions. The electrical power output of a PV module decreases with time mainly as a result of the effects of corrosion, encapsulation discoloration, and solder bond failure. The failure of a PV module is defined as the point where the electrical power degradation reaches a given threshold value. Accelerated life tests (ALTs) are commonly used to assess the reliability of a PV module. However, ALTs provide limited data on the failure of a module and these tests are expensive to carry out. One possible solution is to conduct accelerated degradation tests. The Wiener process in conjunction with the accelerated failure time model makes it possible to carry out numerous simulations and thus to determine the failure time distribution based on the aforementioned threshold value. By this means, the failure time distribution and the lifetime (mean and uncertainty) can be evaluated. An example using the damp heat test is shown to demonstrate the usefulness PVMODREL.

Keywords: lifetime, reliability, PV Module, accelerated life testing, accelerated degradation testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 556

Authors: Truong Nguyen Luan Vu, Le Hieu Giang, Le Linh

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The FOPI controller is proposed based on the main properties of the decoupling control scheme, as well as the fractional calculus. By using the simplified decoupling technique, the transfer function of decoupled apparent process is firstly separated into a set of n equivalent independent processes in terms of a ratio of the diagonal elements of original open-loop transfer function to those of dynamic relative gain array and the fraction – order PI controller is then developed for each control loops due to the Bode’s ideal transfer function that gives the desired fractional closed-loop response in the frequency domain. The simulation studies were carried out to evaluate the proposed design approach in a fair compared with the other existing methods in accordance with the structured singular value (SSV) theory that used to measure the robust stability of control systems under multiplicative output uncertainty. The simulation results indicate that the proposed method consistently performs well with fast and well-balanced closed-loop time responses.

Keywords: ideal transfer function of bode, fractional calculus, fractional order proportional integral (FOPI) controller, decoupling control system

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Authors: Eliane Abdo

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Small and medium sized firms “SMEs” play essential role in the countries’ economic development mainly in terms of production, employment and equitable distribution of income. For innovative SMEs, the investment in the human capital and in research and development are crucial to survive in a competitive environment. In this paper we perform a literature review to underline the financing difficulties and constraints which innovative SMEs face while investing in intangible assets: not only when defining amount of the investments but also while choosing its financing methods. Literature review revealed that in order to finance their intangible assets, SMEs rely in first on their internal financing: the availability of internal cash flows can then determine their investment’s decision. Moreover SMEs face difficulties to finance their intangibles by financial debts due to the uncertainty of future cash flow and the absence of physical guarantees; they will therefore go for the issuance of new shares as a second choice, since innovative companies have high opportunity of growth that attract new shareholders.

Keywords: small and medium sized firms, capital structure, intangible investment, financial constraints

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Authors: Wajeehah Aayeshah, Joy Higgs

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The term “transcending pedagogies” has been created to refer to teaching and learning strategies that transcend the mode of student enrolment, the needs of different students, and different learning spaces. The value of such pedagogies in the current arena when learning spaces, technologies and preferences are more volatile than ever before, is a key focus of this paper. The paper will examine current and emerging pedagogies that transcend the learning spaces and enrollment modes of on campus, distance, virtual and workplace learning contexts. A further point of interest is how academics in professional and higher education settings interpret and implement pedagogies in the current global conversation space and re-creation of higher education. This study questioned how the notion and practice of transcending pedagogies enables us to re-imagine and reshape university curricula. It explored the nature of teaching and learning spaces and those professional and higher education (current and emerging) pedagogies that can be implemented across these spaces. We set out to identify how transcending pedagogies can assist students in learning to deal with complexity, uncertainty and change in the practice worlds and better appeal to students who are making decisions on where to enrol. The data for this study was collected through in-depth interviews and focus groups with academics and policy makers within academia.

Keywords: Transcending Pedagogies, teaching and learning strategies, learning spaces, pedagogies

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Authors: Alireza Vafaei Sadr, Vida Abedi, Jiang Li, Ramin Zand

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Missing data is a common challenge in medical research and can lead to biased or incomplete results. When the data bias leaks into models, it further exacerbates health disparities; biased algorithms can lead to misclassification and reduced resource allocation and monitoring as part of prevention strategies for certain minorities and vulnerable segments of patient populations, which in turn further reduce data footprint from the same population – thus, a vicious cycle. This study compares the performance of six imputation techniques grouped into Linear and Non-Linear models on two different realworld electronic health records (EHRs) datasets, representing 17864 patient records. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as performance metrics, and the results show that the Linear models outperformed the Non-Linear models in terms of both metrics. These results suggest that sometimes Linear models might be an optimal choice for imputation in laboratory variables in terms of imputation efficiency and uncertainty of predicted values.

Keywords: EHR, machine learning, imputation, laboratory variables, algorithmic bias

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Authors: Sunil Dutta

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Synchronization is defined as ‘the sequencing and re-sequencing of all relative and absolute activities in time and space and continuous alignment of those actions with purposeful objective in a complex and dynamic atmosphere. In a complex and dynamic production / maintenance setup, no single group can work in isolation for long. In addition, many activities in projects take place simultaneously at the same time. Work of every section / group is interwoven with work of others. The various activities / interactions which take place in production / overhaul workshops are interlinked because of physical requirements (information, material, workforces, equipment, and space) and dependencies. The activity sequencing is determined by physical dependencies of various department / sections / units (e.g., inventory availability must be ensured before stripping and disassembling of equipment), whereas resource dependencies do not. Theory of constraint facilitates identification, analyses and exploitation of the constraint in methodical manner. These constraints (equipment, manpower, policies etc.) prevent the department / sections / units from getting optimum exploitation of available resources. The significance of theory of constraints for achieving synchronization at overhaul workshop is illustrated in this paper.

Keywords: synchronization, overhaul, throughput, obsolescence, uncertainty

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Authors: Osamu Komori, Shinto Eguchi, Hiroshi Okamura, Momoko Ichinokawa

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The long time-series data on population assessments are essential for global ecosystem assessment because the temporal change of biomass in such a database reflects the status of global ecosystem properly. However, the available assessment data usually have limited sample sizes and the ratio of populations with low abundance of biomass (collapsed) to those with high abundance (non-collapsed) is highly imbalanced. To allow for the imbalance and uncertainty involved in the ecological data, we propose a binary regression model with mixed effects for inferring ecosystem status through an asymmetric logistic model. In the estimation equation, we observe that the weights for the non-collapsed populations are relatively reduced, which in turn puts more importance on the small number of observations of collapsed populations. Moreover, we extend the asymmetric logistic regression model using propensity score to allow for the sample biases observed in the labeled and unlabeled datasets. It robustified the estimation procedure and improved the model fitting.

Keywords: double robust estimation, ecological binary data, mixed effect logistic regression model, propensity score

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Authors: Shan Zhang, Peter Suechting

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Predicting trade patterns is critical to decision-making in public and private domains, especially in the current context of trade disputes among major economies. In the past, U.S. recycling has relied heavily on strong demand for recyclable materials overseas. However, starting in 2017, a series of new recycling policies (bans and higher inspection standards) was enacted by multiple countries that were the primary importers of recyclables from the U.S. prior to that point. As the global trade flow of recycling shifts, some new importers, mostly developing countries in South and Southeast Asia, have been overwhelmed by the sheer quantities of scrap materials they have received. As the leading exporter of recyclable materials, the U.S. now has a pressing need to build its recycling industry domestically. With respect to the global trade in scrap materials used for recycling, the interest in this paper is (1) predicting how the export of recyclable materials from the U.S. might vary over time, and (2) predicting how international trade flows for recyclables might change in the future. Focusing on three major recyclable materials with a history of trade, this study uses data-driven and machine learning (ML) algorithms---supervised (shrinkage and tree methods) and unsupervised (neural network method)---to decipher the international trade pattern of recycling. Forecasting the potential trade values of recyclables in the future could help importing countries, to which those materials will shift next, to prepare related trade policies. Such policies can assist policymakers in minimizing negative environmental externalities and in finding the optimal amount of recyclables needed by each country. Such forecasts can also help exporting countries, like the U.S understand the importance of healthy domestic recycling industry. The preliminary result suggests that gravity models---in addition to particular selection macroeconomic predictor variables--are appropriate predictors of the total export value of recyclables. With the inclusion of variables measuring aspects of the political conditions (trade tariffs and bans), predictions show that recyclable materials are shifting from more policy-restricted countries to less policy-restricted countries in international recycling trade. Those countries also tend to have high manufacturing activities as a percentage of their GDP.

Keywords: environmental economics, machine learning, recycling, international trade

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Authors: M. A. Wanzala, L. A. Ogallo, F. J. Opijah, J. N. Mutemi

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The usefulness and limitations in climate information are due to uncertainty inherent in the climate system. For any given region to have sustainable development it is important to apply climate information into its socio-economic strategic plans. The overall objective of the study was to assess the performance of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over the Lake Victoria Basin. The datasets used included the observed point station data, gridded rainfall data from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and hindcast data from eight CMIP5. The methodology included trend analysis, spatial analysis, correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) regression analysis, and categorical statistical skill score. Analysis of the trends in the observed rainfall records indicated an increase in rainfall variability both in space and time for all the seasons. The spatial patterns of the individual models output from the models of MPI, MIROC, EC-EARTH and CNRM were closest to the observed rainfall patterns.

Keywords: categorical statistics, coupled model inter-comparison project, principal component analysis, statistical downscaling

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Authors: Yas Barzegar, Atrin Barzegar

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Drinking water quality assessment is a major issue today; technology and practices are continuously improving; Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods prove their efficiency in this domain. The current research seeks a hierarchical fuzzy model for predicting drinking water quality in Rome (Italy). The Mamdani fuzzy inference system (FIS) is applied with different defuzzification methods. The Proposed Model includes three fuzzy intermediate models and one fuzzy final model. Each fuzzy model consists of three input parameters and 27 fuzzy rules. The model is developed for water quality assessment with a dataset considering nine parameters (Alkalinity, Hardness, pH, Ca, Mg, Fluoride, Sulphate, Nitrates, and Iron). Fuzzy-logic-based methods have been demonstrated to be appropriate to address uncertainty and subjectivity in drinking water quality assessment; it is an effective method for managing complicated, uncertain water systems and predicting drinking water quality. The FIS method can provide an effective solution to complex systems; this method can be modified easily to improve performance.

Keywords: water quality, fuzzy logic, smart cities, water attribute, fuzzy inference system, membership function

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Authors: Sofia N. Gonçalves, Duarte M. S. Albuquerque, José C. F. Pereira

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Microwave technology has been gaining importance in contributing to decarbonization processes in high energy demand industries. Despite the several numerical models presented in the literature, a proper Verification and Validation exercise is still lacking. This is important and required to evaluate the physical process model accuracy and adequacy. Another issue addresses impedance matching, which is an important mechanism used in microwave experiments to increase electromagnetic efficiency. Such mechanism is not available in current computational tools, thus requiring an external numerical procedure. A numerical model was implemented to study the continuous processing of limestone with microwave heating. This process requires the material to be heated until a certain temperature that will prompt a highly endothermic reaction. Both a 2D and 3D model were built in COMSOL Multiphysics to solve the two-way coupling between Maxwell and Energy equations, along with the coupling between both heat transfer phenomena and limestone endothermic reaction. The 2D model was used to study and evaluate the required numerical procedure, being also a benchmark test, allowing other authors to implement impedance matching procedures. To achieve this goal, a controller built in MATLAB was used to continuously matching the cavity impedance and predicting the required energy for the system, thus successfully avoiding energy inefficiencies. The 3D model reproduces realistic results and therefore supports the main conclusions of this work. Limestone was modeled as a continuous flow under the transport of concentrated species, whose material and kinetics properties were taken from literature. Verification and Validation of the coupled model was taken separately from the chemical kinetic model. The chemical kinetic model was found to correctly describe the chosen kinetic equation by comparing numerical results with experimental data. A solution verification was made for the electromagnetic interface, where second order and fourth order accurate schemes were found for linear and quadratic elements, respectively, with numerical uncertainty lower than 0.03%. Regarding the coupled model, it was demonstrated that the numerical error would diverge for the heat transfer interface with the mapped mesh. Results showed numerical stability for the triangular mesh, and the numerical uncertainty was less than 0.1%. This study evaluated limestone velocity, heat transfer, and load influence on thermal decomposition and overall process efficiency. The velocity and heat transfer coefficient were studied with the 2D model, while different loads of material were studied with the 3D model. Both models demonstrated to be highly unstable when solving non-linear temperature distributions. High velocity flows exhibited propensity to thermal runways, and the thermal efficiency showed the tendency to stabilize for the higher velocities and higher filling ratio. Microwave efficiency denoted an optimal velocity for each heat transfer coefficient, pointing out that electromagnetic efficiency is a consequence of energy distribution uniformity. The 3D results indicated the inefficient development of the electric field for low filling ratios. Thermal efficiencies higher than 90% were found for the higher loads and microwave efficiencies up to 75% were accomplished. The 80% fill ratio was demonstrated to be the optimal load with an associated global efficiency of 70%.

Keywords: multiphysics modeling, microwave heating, verification and validation, endothermic reactions modeling, impedance matching, limestone continuous processing

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Authors: Hossein Gitinavard, Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

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In the last decades, concerns about the environmental issues lead to professional and academic efforts on green supplier selection problems. In this sake, one of the main issues in evaluating the green supplier selection problems, which could increase the uncertainty, is the preferences of the experts' judgments about the candidate green suppliers. Therefore, preparing an expert system to evaluate the problem based on the historical data and the experts' knowledge can be sensible. This study provides an expert evaluation system to assess the candidate green suppliers under selected criteria in a multi-period approach. In addition, a ranking approach under interval-valued hesitant fuzzy set (IVHFS) environment is proposed to select the most appropriate green supplier in planning horizon. In the proposed ranking approach, the IVHFS and the last aggregation approach are considered to margin the errors and to prevent data loss, respectively. Hence, a comparative analysis is provided based on an illustrative example to show the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Keywords: green supplier selection, expert system, ranking approach, interval-valued hesitant fuzzy setting

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Authors: Oladipo Joseph Ajayi, Yakubu Muhammed, Raufu Olusola Sanusi

Abstract:

This study determined the perceived effect of livelihood diversification on welfare of rural household in Niger state, Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling technique was adopted for sampling the respondents. Data used for the study were obtained from primary source. Structured questionnaire with interview schedule was administered to 180 randomly selected rural farmers in the study area. Descriptive statistics analysis and z-test statistics were used to analyse the data collected. The study revealed the mean age of the household to be 43 years, mean years of schooling was 8.5, mean household size was 6 people, mean farming experience of 17.5 years and mean farm size of 1.8 hectares. The effect of livelihood diversification revealed that livelihood diversification had positive and significant effect on food security (65.6%) and income generation (66.8%) in the study area. The major constraints to diversification in the study area were poor infrastructure, unavailability of credit and climatic risk and uncertainty. The study, therefore, recommended that rural household should be sensitised to diversify their income source into non-farm activities.

Keywords: income, livelihood diversification , rural household, welfare

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Sheng-Shing Nien

Abstract:

This study aims to develop approaches to formulate intuitionistic fuzzy regression (IFR) models for many decision-making applications in the fuzzy environments using intuitionistic fuzzy observations. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) are used to characterize the fuzzy input and output variables in the IFR formulation processes. A mathematical programming problem (MPP) is built up to optimally determine the IFR parameters. Each parameter in the MPP is defined as a couple of alternative numerical variables with opposite signs, and an intuitionistic fuzzy error term is added to the MPP to characterize the uncertainty of the model. The IFR model is formulated based on the distance measure to minimize the total distance errors between estimated and observed intuitionistic fuzzy responses in the MPP resolution processes. The proposed approaches are simple/efficient in the formulation/resolution processes, in which the sign of parameters can be determined so that the problem to predetermine the sign of parameters is avoided. Furthermore, the proposed approach has the advantage that the spread of the predicted IFN response will not be over-increased, since the parameters in the established IFR model are crisp. The performance of the obtained models is evaluated and compared with the existing approaches.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy number, intuitionistic fuzzy regression, mathematical programming method

Procedia PDF Downloads 118