Search results for: seasonal forecasting

Authors: Dedah Ahmed Babou, Nicolas Bez

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The Min-Max autocorrelation factor (MAF) approach makes it possible to express in a space formed by spatially independent factors, spatiotemporal observations. These factors are ordered in decreasing order of spatial autocorrelation. The starting observations are thus expressed in the space formed by these factors according to temporal coordinates. Each vector of temporal coefficients expresses the temporal evolution of the weight of the corresponding factor. Applying this approach has enabled us to achieve the following results: (i) Define a spatially orthogonal space in which the projections of the raw data are determined; (ii) Define a limit threshold for the factors with the strongest structures in order to analyze the weight, and the temporal evolution of these different structures (iii) Study the correlation between the temporal evolution of the persistent spatial structures and that of the observed average abundance (iv) Propose prototypes of campaigns reflecting a high vs. low abundance (v) Propose a classification of campaigns that highlights seasonal and/or temporal similarities. These results were obtained by analyzing the octopus yield during the scientific campaigns of the oceanographic vessel Al Awam during the period 1989-2017 in the Mauritanian exclusive economic zone.

Keywords: spatiotemporal , autocorrelation, kriging, variogram, Octopus vulgaris

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Authors: F. Massri, M. Shkarneh, B. Almassri

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Water scarcity and increasing water demand especially for residential use are major challenges facing Palestine. The need to accurately forecast water consumption is useful for the planning and management of this natural resource. The main objective of this paper is to (i) study the major factors influencing the water consumption in Palestine, (ii) understand the general pattern of Household water consumption, (iii) assess the possible changes in household water consumption and suggest appropriate remedies and (iv) develop prediction model based on the Artificial Neural Network to the water consumption in Palestinian cities. The paper is organized in four parts. The first part includes literature review of household water consumption studies. The second part concerns data collection methodology, conceptual frame work for the household water consumption surveys, survey descriptions and data processing methods. The third part presents descriptive statistics, multiple regression and analysis of the water consumption in the two Palestinian cities. The final part develops the use of Artificial Neural Network for modeling the water consumption in Palestinian cities.

Keywords: water management, demand forecasting, consumption, ANN, Ramallah

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Constantine Mbajiorgu

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Vegetation has a marked effect on runoff and has become an important component in hydrologic model. The watershed Resources Management (WRM) model, a process-based, continuous, distributed parameter simulation model developed for hydrologic and soil erosion studies at the watershed scale lack a crop growth component. As such, this model assumes a constant parameter values for vegetation and hydraulic parameters throughout the duration of hydrologic simulation. Our approach is to develop a crop growth algorithm based on the original plant growth model used in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model (EPIC) model. This paper describes the development of a single crop growth model which has the capability of simulating all crops using unique parameter values for each crop. Simulated crop growth processes will reflect the vegetative seasonality of the natural watershed system. An existing model was employed for evaluating vegetative resistance by hydraulic and vegetative parameters incorporated into the WRM model. The improved WRM model will have the ability to evaluate the seasonal variation of the vegetative roughness coefficient with depth of flow and further enhance the hydrologic model’s capability for accurate hydrologic studies

Keywords: crop yield, roughness coefficient, PAR, WRM model

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Authors: S. Benbellil-Tafoughalt, J. M. Koene

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Growth strategies are often plastic and influenced by environmental conditions. Terrestrial gastropods are particularly affected by seasonal and climatic variables, and growth rate and size at maturity are key traits in their life history. Therefore, we investigated juvenile growth of Helix aperta snails under four combinations of temperature and photoperiod using two sets of young snails, born in the laboratory from adults collected in either the autumn (aestivating snails) or spring (active snails). Parental snails were collected from Bakaro (Northeastern Algeria). Higher temperature increased adult size and reduced time to reproduction. Long day photoperiod also increased the final body weight, but had no effect on the length of the growth period. The season of birth had significant effects on length of the growth period and weight of hatchings, whereas this weight difference disappeared by adulthood. The spring snails took less time to develop and reached similar adult body weight as the autumn snails. These differences may be due to differences in egg size or quality between the snails from different seasons. More rapid growth in spring snails results in larger snails entering aestivation, a period with size-related mortality in this species.

Keywords: growth, Hélix aperta, photoperiod, temperature

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Authors: Pascal François Faye, Baye Mor Sall, Bineta Dembele, Jeanne Ana Awa Faye

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In agriculture, estimating crop yields is key to improving productivity and decision-making processes such as financial market forecasting and addressing food security issues. The main objective of this paper is to have tools to predict and improve the accuracy of crop yield forecasts using machine learning (ML) algorithms such as CART , KNN and SVM . We developed a mobile app and a web app that uses these algorithms for practical use by farmers. The tests show that our system (collection and deployment architecture, web application and mobile application) is operational and validates empirical knowledge on agro-climatic parameters in addition to proactive decision-making support. The experimental results obtained on the agricultural data, the performance of the ML algorithms are compared using cross-validation in order to identify the most effective ones following the agricultural data. The proposed applications demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in predicting crop yields and provides timely and accurate responses to farmers for decision support.

Keywords: prediction, machine learning, artificial intelligence, digital agriculture

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Authors: Gizem İntepe, Eti Mizrahi

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Investment and financing decisions are influenced by various economic features. Detailed analysis should be conducted in order to make decisions not only by companies but also by governments. Such analysis can be conducted either at the company level or on a sectoral basis to reduce risks and to maximize profits. Sectoral disaggregation caused by seasonality effects, subventions, data advantages or disadvantages may appear in sectors behaving parallel to BIST (Borsa Istanbul stock exchange) Index. Proposed logistic indices could serve market needs as a decision parameter in sectoral basis and also helps forecasting activities in import export volume changes. Also it is an indicator of logistic activity, which is also a sign of economic mobility at the national level. Publicly available data from “Ministry of Transport, Maritime Affairs and Communications” and “Turkish Statistical Institute” is utilized to obtain five logistics indices namely as; exLogistic, imLogistic, fLogistic, dLogistic and cLogistic index. Then, efficiency and reliability of these indices are tested.

Keywords: economic activity, export trade data, import trade data, logistics indices

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

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Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. However, it is difficult to find analytical solution of these complex non-linear equations. Hence, verification of the numerical model should be carried out against field data and numerical predictions. This paper presents the verification of developed finite element model applying for unsteady flow in the open channels. The results of a proposed model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29 km at both sites (15 km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400 km downstream from Sukkur barrage, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for predicting and issuing flood warnings about flood hazardous in advance.

Keywords: finite element method, Preissmann scheme, HEC-RAS, flood forecasting, Indus river

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Authors: Fatima S. Mohammed, Derrick Crump

Abstract:

Harmattan, a dusty weather condition characterized by thick smog-like suspended particles and dust storm are the peculiar events that happen during ¾ of the year in the Sahelian regions including Damaturu Town, Nigeria), resulting in heavy dust deposits especially indoors. The inhabitants of the Damaturu community are always inflicted with different ailments; respiratory tract infections, asthma, gastrointestinal infections and different ailments associated with the dusty nature of the immediate environment. This brought the need to investigate the nature of the settled indoor dust. Vacuum cleaner bag dust was collected from indoor of some Nigerian and UK homes, as well as outdoors including during seasonal dusty weather event (Harmattan and Storm dust). The dust was sieved, and the (150 µm size) particles were examined using scanning electron microscope (SEM). The physical characterization of the settled dust samples has revealed the various shapes and sizes, and elemental composition of the dust samples is indicating that some of the dust fractions were the respirable fractions and also the dust contained PM10 to PM 2.5 fractions with possible health effects. The elemental compositions were indicative of the diverse nature of the dust particle sources, which showed dust as a complex matrix.

Keywords: indoor dust, Harmattan dust, SEM, health effects

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Constantine Mbajiorgu

Abstract:

Vegetation has a marked effect on runoff and has become an important component in hydrologic model. The watershed Resources Management (WRM) model, a process-based, continuous, distributed parameter simulation model developed for hydrologic and soil erosion studies at the watershed scale lack a crop growth component. As such, this model assumes a constant parameter values for vegetation and hydraulic parameters throughout the duration of hydrologic simulation. Our approach is to develop a crop growth algorithm based on the original plant growth model used in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model (EPIC) model. This paper describes the development of a single crop growth model which has the capability of simulating all crops using unique parameter values for each crop. Simulated crop growth processes will reflect the vegetative seasonality of the natural watershed system. An existing model was employed for evaluating vegetative resistance by hydraulic and vegetative parameters incorporated into the WRM model. The improved WRM model will have the ability to evaluate the seasonal variation of the vegetative roughness coefficient with depth of flow and further enhance the hydrologic model’s capability for accurate hydrologic studies.

Keywords: runoff, roughness coefficient, PAR, WRM model

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Mohamed Elhakeem, A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou, Christopher Wilson, Yi-Jia Chang

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In this study, a physically-based, modelling framework was developed to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity (KSAT) dynamics in the Clear Creek Watershed (CCW), Iowa. The modelling framework integrated selected pedotransfer functions and watershed models with geospatial tools. A number of pedotransfer functions and agricultural watershed models were examined to select the appropriate models that represent the study site conditions. Models selection was based on statistical measures of the models’ errors compared to the KSAT field measurements conducted in the CCW under different soil, climate and land use conditions. The study has shown that the predictions of the combined pedotransfer function of Rosetta and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) provided the best agreement to the measured KSAT values in the CCW compared to the other tested models. Therefore, Rosetta and WEPP were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) tools for visualization of the data in forms of geospatial maps and prediction of KSAT variability in CCW due to the seasonal changes in climate and land use activities.

Keywords: saturated hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions, watershed models, geospatial tools

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Authors: Muhammad Rizwan Tabassum, Ao Xia, Jerry D. Murphy

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The purpose of this work is to provide a comprehensive overview of seaweed as the alternative feedstock for biofuel production and key conversion technologies. Resource depletion and climate change are the driving forces to hunt for renewable sources of energy. Macroalgae can be preferred over land based crops for biofuel production because they are not in competition with food crops for arable land, high growth rates and low lignin contents which require less energy-intensive pre-treatments. However, some disadvantages, such as high moisture content, seasonal variation in chemical composition and process inhibition limit its economic feasibility. Seaweed can be converted into gaseous and liquid fuel by different conversion technologies, but biogas via anaerobic digestion from seaweed is attracting increased attention due to its dual benefit of an economic source of bio-fuel and environment-friendly technology. Biodiesel and bioethanol conversion technologies from seaweed are still under development. A selection of high yielding seaweed species, optimal harvesting season and process optimization make them economically feasible for the alternative source of renewable and sustainable feedstock for biofuel in future.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biofuel, bio-methane, conversion technologies, seaweed

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Authors: Andreas Rüdiger

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The selection of appropriate wastewater treatment technology for decentralized coastal tourist areas is an important engineering challenge. The local situation in coastal tourist cities and villages is characterized by important daily and seasonal fluctuations in hydraulic flow and pollution, high annual temperature variations, scarcity of building area and high housing density. At the same time, coastal zones have to meet stringent effluent limits all over the year and need simple and easy technologies to operate. This article presents the innovative technology of standardized modular aerated up-flow biofiltration SMBF as an adapted solution for decentralized wastewater treatment in sensitive touristic coastal areas. As modular technology with several biofiltration units, the system is able to treat low and high loads with low energy consumption and low demands for operators. The article focuses on the climatic and tourist situation in Croatia. Full-scale plants in Eastern Europe and Croatia have presented as well as dimensioning parameters and outlet concentrations. Energy consumption as a function of load is demonstrated.

Keywords: wastewater treatment, biofiltration, touristic areas, energy saving

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Authors: Surrya Khanam

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Understanding the population characteristics of pest species is crucial to develop suitable management plans. The present study was aimed to determine the population ecology of House rat (Rattus rattus) in rural human dwellings of Pothwar, Pakistan. Seasonal rodent trapping was conducted in four villages of Pothwar area from March 2012 to February 2014. A total of 217 individuals of R.rattus were captured from houses, shops, and farm houses. There was no significant difference in the abundance of species across different trapping seasons. The species sex ratio was unbiased and did not differ significantly from 1:1 at all the sites and across all the trapping seasons. The population of R. Rattus had individuals of different age groups, viz., juvenile, sub adults and adults. Overall, more adult individuals were captured in spring and summer season. Breeding activity was continuous throughout the year and reproductively active individuals relatively outnumbered inactive individuals. The results showed that village indoor habitats provided a suitable habitat for rat populations all the year round. The information obtained from this study will be helpful in the development of control strategies for R. rattus populations in commensal habitats.

Keywords: ecology, indoor pests, Rattus rattus, population characteristics

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Authors: N. Pegahfar, P. Ghafarian

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In this research, the synoptic weather conditions during the heavy flood of 10-12 January 2020 in the Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province of Iran will be analyzed. To this aim, reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis data, measured data from a surface station together with satellite images from the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) have been used from 9 to 12 January 2020. Atmospheric parameters both at the lower troposphere and also at the upper part of that have been used, including absolute vorticity, wind velocity, temperature, geopotential height, relative humidity, and precipitation. Results indicated that both lower-level and upper-level currents were strong. In addition, the transport of a large amount of humidity from the Oman Sea and the Red Sea to the south and southeast of Iran (Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province) led to the vast and unexpected precipitation and then a heavy flood.

Keywords: Sistan-va-Balouchestn Province, heavy flood, synoptic, analysis data

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Authors: Aziz Larbi, Widad Sadok

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In Morocco, the mountainous regions extend over about 26% of the national territory where 30% of the total population live. They contain opportunities for agriculture, forestry, pastureland and mining. The production systems in these zones are characterised by crop diversification. However, these areas have become vulnerable to the effects of climate change. To understand these effects in relation to the population living in these areas, a study was carried out in the zone of Taliouine, in the Anti-Atlas. The vulnerability of crop productions to climate change was analysed and the different ways of adaptation adopted by farmers were identified. The work was done on saffron, the most profitable crop in the target area even though it requires much water. Our results show that the majority of the farmers surveyed had noticed variations in the climate of the region: irregularity of precipitation leading to a decrease in quantity and an uneven distribution throughout the year; rise in temperature; reduction in the cold period and less snow. These variations had impacts on the cropping system of saffron and its productivity. To cope with these effects, the farmers adopted various strategies: better management and use of water; diversification of agricultural activities; increase in the contribution of non-agricultural activities to their gross income; and seasonal migration.

Keywords: climate change, Taliouine, saffron, perceptions, adaptation strategies

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Authors: Youness Laaroussi, Zine Elabidine Guennoun, Amine Amar

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Modeling and forecasting dynamics of rainfall occurrences constitute one of the major topics, which have been largely treated by statisticians, hydrologists, climatologists and many other groups of scientists. In the same issue, we propose in the present paper a new hybrid method, which combines Extreme Values and fractal theories. We illustrate the use of our methodology for transformed Emberger Index series, constructed basing on data recorded in Oujda (Morocco). The index is treated at first by Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach, to identify excess observations over an optimal threshold u. In the second step, we consider the resulting excess as a fractal object included in one dimensional space of time. We identify fractal dimension by the box counting. We discuss the prospect descriptions of rainfall data sets under Generalized Pareto Distribution, assured by Extreme Values Theory (EVT). We show that, despite of the appropriateness of return periods given by POT approach, the introduction of fractal dimension provides accurate interpretation results, which can ameliorate apprehension of rainfall occurrences.

Keywords: extreme values theory, fractals dimensions, peaks Over threshold, rainfall occurrences

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Authors: H. H. Goh, Q. S. Chua, S. W. Lee, B. C. Kok, K. C. Goh, K. T. K. Teo

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At present, the evaluation of voltage stability assessment experiences sizeable anxiety in the safe operation of power systems. This is due to the complications of a strain power system. With the snowballing of power demand by the consumers and also the restricted amount of power sources, therefore, the system has to perform at its maximum proficiency. Consequently, the noteworthy to discover the maximum ability boundary prior to voltage collapse should be undertaken. A preliminary warning can be perceived to evade the interruption of power system’s capacity. The effectiveness of line voltage stability indices (LVSI) is differentiated in this paper. The main purpose of the indices is used to predict the proximity of voltage instability of the electric power system. On the other hand, the indices are also able to decide the weakest load buses which are close to voltage collapse in the power system. The line stability indices are assessed using the IEEE 14 bus test system to validate its practicability. Results demonstrated that the implemented indices are practically relevant in predicting the manifestation of voltage collapse in the system. Therefore, essential actions can be taken to dodge the incident from arising.

Keywords: critical line, line outage, line voltage stability indices (LVSI), maximum loadability, voltage collapse, voltage instability, voltage stability analysis

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Authors: Wullapa Wongsinlatam

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Back propagation algorithm (BP) is a widely used technique in artificial neural network and has been used as a tool for solving the time series problems, such as decreasing training time, maximizing the ability to fall into local minima, and optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias. This paper proposes an improvement of a BP technique which is called IM-COH algorithm (IM-COH). By combining IM-COH algorithm with cuckoo search algorithm (CS), the result is cuckoo search improved control output hidden layer algorithm (CS-IM-COH). This new algorithm has a better ability in optimizing sensitivity of the initial weights and bias than the original BP algorithm. In this research, the algorithm of CS-IM-COH is compared with the original BP, the IM-COH, and the original BP with CS (CS-BP). Furthermore, the selected benchmarks, four time series samples, are shown in this research for illustration. The research shows that the CS-IM-COH algorithm give the best forecasting results compared with the selected samples.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, back propagation algorithm, time series, local minima problem, metaheuristic optimization

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Authors: Marcus C. Garcia, Giselle C. Guimarães, Luciana H. Yamane, Renato R. Siman

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The environmental indicators and the classification of beach waste are essential tools to diagnose the current situation and to indicate ways to improve the quality of this environment. The purpose of this paper was to perform a quali-quantitative analysis of the beach waste on the Curva da Jurema Beach (Espírito Santo - Brazil). Three transects were used with equidistant positioning over the total length of the beach for the solid waste collection. Solid wastes were later classified according to their use and primary raw material from the low and high summer season. During the low season, average values of 7.10 items.m^-1, 18.22 g.m^-1 and 0.91 g.m^-2 were found for the whole beach, and transect 3 contributed the most waste, with the total sum of items equal to 999 (49%), a total mass of 5.62 kg and a total volume of 21.31 L. During the high summer season, average values of 8.22 items.m^-1, 54.40 g.m^-1 and 2.72 g.m^-2 were found, with transect 2 contributing the most to the total sum with 1,212 items (53%), a total mass of 10.76 kg and a total volume of 51.99 L. Of the total collected, plastic materials represented 51.4% of the total number of items, 35.9% of the total mass and 68% of the total volume. The implementation of reactive and proactive measures is necessary so that the management of the solid wastes on Curva da Jurema Beach is in accordance with principles of sustainability.

Keywords: beach solid waste, environmental indicators, quali-quantitative analysis, waste management

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Authors: Aurelia Samuel

Abstract:

Socio-economic modelling approaches linked to water management have contributed to impact assessments of agricultural policies and management practices on water quality at catchment level. With an increasing interest in informing water management policy that considers complex links between socioeconomic factors, climate change, agricultural production, and water quality, several models have been developed and applied in the literature to capture these relationships. This paper offers an overview of socio-economic approaches that have been incorporated within an integrated framework. It also highlights how data gaps on socio-economic factors have been addressed using forecasting techniques. Findings of the review show that while integrated frameworks have the potential to account for complexities within dynamic systems, they generally do not provide direct, measurable financial impact of socio-economic factors on biophysical water parameters that affect water quality. The paper concludes with a recommendation that modelling framework is kept simple to make it more transparent and easier to capture the most important relationship.

Keywords: financial impact, integrated framework, socio-economic modelling, water quality

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Authors: Luther Ollier, Sylvie Thiria, Anastase Charantonis, Carlos E. Mejia, Michel Crépon

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Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SLA) is a signature of the sub-mesoscale dynamics of the upper ocean. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is driven by these dynamics and can be used to improve the spatial interpolation of SLA fields. In this study, we focused on the temporal evolution of SLA fields. We explored the capacity of deep learning (DL) methods to predict short-term SLA fields using SST fields. We used simulated daily SLA and SST data from the Mercator Global Analysis and Forecasting System, with a resolution of (1/12)◦ in the North Atlantic Ocean (26.5-44.42◦N, -64.25–41.83◦E), covering the period from 1993 to 2019. Using a slightly modified image-to-image convolutional DL architecture, we demonstrated that SST is a relevant variable for controlling the SLA prediction. With a learning process inspired by the teaching-forcing method, we managed to improve the SLA forecast at five days by using the SST fields as additional information. We obtained predictions of a 12 cm (20 cm) error of SLA evolution for scales smaller than mesoscales and at time scales of 5 days (20 days), respectively. Moreover, the information provided by the SST allows us to limit the SLA error to 16 cm at 20 days when learning the trajectory.

Keywords: deep-learning, altimetry, sea surface temperature, forecast

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Authors: Timothy J. Considine, Edward J. M. Manderson

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This paper develops an econometric forecasting system of energy demand coupled with engineering-economic models of energy supply. The framework is used to quantify the impact of state-level renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) achieved predominately with solar generation on electricity rates, electricity consumption, and environmental quality. We perform the analysis using Arizona’s RPS as a case study. We forecast energy demand in Arizona out to 2035, and find by this time the state will require an additional 35 million MWh of electricity generation. If Arizona implements its RPS when supplying this electricity demand, we find there will be a substantial increase in electricity rates (relative to a business-as-usual scenario of reliance on gas-fired generation). Extending the current regime of tax credits can greatly reduce this increase, at the taxpayers’ expense. We find that by 2025 Arizona’s RPS will implicitly abate carbon dioxide emissions at a cost between $101 and $135 per metric ton, and by 2035 abatement costs are between $64 and $112 per metric ton (depending on the future evolution of nature gas prices).

Keywords: electricity demand, renewable portfolio standard, solar, carbon dioxide

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Authors: Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Mohd Salmi M. Noorani

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This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method

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Authors: Sunghae Jun

Abstract:

Technology management (TM) is important issue in a company improving the competitiveness. Among many activities of TM, technology analysis (TA) is important factor, because most decisions for management of technology are decided by the results of TA. TA is to analyze the developed results of target technology using statistics or Delphi. TA based on Delphi is depended on the experts’ domain knowledge, in comparison, TA by statistics and machine learning algorithms use objective data such as patent or paper instead of the experts’ knowledge. Many quantitative TA methods based on statistics and machine learning have been studied, and these have been used for technology forecasting, technological innovation, and management of technology. They applied diverse computing tools and many analytical methods case by case. It is not easy to select the suitable software and statistical method for given TA work. So, in this paper, we propose a methodology for quantitative TA using statistical computing software called R and data science to construct a general framework of TA. From the result of case study, we also show how our methodology is applied to real field. This research contributes to R&D planning and technology valuation in TM areas.

Keywords: technology management, R system, R data science, statistics, machine learning

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Authors: A. W. Kashimawo

Abstract:

Fish check list of Bayeku water, Lagos, Nigeria was investigated between February 2012 and January 2013. Fish specimens were caught with gill and cast-nets, and non-return valve basket trap. Services of artisanal fishermen were employed for the setting of gears and collections of fish. Species not captured after sampling were assumed to be absent or so rare as to be of minimal ecological importance. The 632 specimens were preserved in 10 % formaldehyde in the field prior to their identification. Physicochemical parameters such as temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and pH were determined from the lagoon water samples following standard methods. A total of 632 fish were encountered, belonging to 23 families, 27 genera and 29 species. The most abundant species were Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus (9.65 %), Macrobrachium vollenhoveni (7.94 %), Ethmalosa fimbriata (7.12 %), Elops lacerta (6.96 %), Cynoglossus browni (6.17 %), Gobioides broussonnetii (5.69 %), Sphyraena piscatorum (5.39 %), Polydactylus quadrifilis (5.06 %), and Mugil cephalus (4.91 %). There were seasonal variations in species occurrence and abundance. Marine fishes were found in dry season.. Freshwater fishes were more during the wet season. There are marine and freshwater fishes that have euryhaline characteristics and have adapted to the lagoon environment such that they were encountered both in dry and wet seasons.

Keywords: fish check list, species occurrence, abundance, ecological importance

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Authors: Christina Kalogirou

Abstract:

Investigating the integration of bioclimatic design into vernacular architecture could lead to interesting results regarding the preservation of cultural heritage while enhancing the energy efficiency of historic buildings. Furthermore, these recognized principles and systems of bioclimatic design in vernacular settlements could be applied to modern architecture and thus to new buildings in such areas. This study introduces an approach to categorizing distinct technologies and design principles of bioclimatic design based on a thoughtful approach to various climatic zones and environment in Greece (mountainous areas, islands and lowlands). For this purpose, various types of dwellings are evaluated for their response to climate, regarding the layout of the buildings (orientation, floor plans’ shape, semi-open spaces), the site planning, the openings (size, position, protection), the building envelope (walls: construction materials-thickness, roof construction detailing) and the migratory living pattern according to seasonal needs. As a result, various passive design principles (that could be adapted to current architectural practice in such areas, in order to optimize the relationship between site, building, climate and energy efficiency) are proposed.

Keywords: bioclimatic design, buildings physics, climatic zones, energy efficiency, vernacular architecture

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Authors: Melese Tadesse Morebo

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Pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in East Africa, particularly in Ethiopia, are vulnerable to climate-related risks. The aim of this study is to characterize the annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall and temperature of the middle and lower awash areas of Ethiopia. Start of season (SOS), end of season (EOS), length of growing season (LGS), number of rainy days, and probability of dry spell occurrences were analyzed using INSTAT Plus (v3.7) software. Daily rainfall and temperature data for 33 years (1990–2022) from six stations were analyzed. The result of the study revealed that the annual rainfall in the study area as a whole showed an increasing trend, but its trend was statistically non-significant. During the study period, the Kiremt rainfall at Amibara station showed statistically significant increasing trends. The trend analysis of SOS, EOS, and LGS shows up and down trends at all stations. The mean lengths of growing seasons in the study area ranged from 20 to 61 days during the study period. In the study area, the annual mean maximum temperature ranged between 34.1°C and 38.3°C over the last three decades. All stations within the research area during the study period, the annual minimum temperature exhibited a substantial impact.

Keywords: annual rainfall, LGS, minimum temperature, Mann-Kendall test

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Authors: Sabria Barka, Imen Gdara, Zouhour Ouanès, Samia Mouelhi, Monia El Bour, Amel Hamza-Chaffai

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Because dams are large semi-closed reservoirs of pollutants originating from numerous anthropogenic activities, they represent a threat to aquatic life and they should be monitored. The present work aims to use freshwater zooplankton (Copepods and Cladocerans) in order to evaluate the environmental health status of Bir M'cherga dam in Tunisia. Animals were collected in situ monthly between October and August. Genotoxicity (micronucleus test), neurotoxicity (acetylcholinesterase, AChE) and oxidative stress (catalase, CAT and malondialdehyde, MDA) biomarkers were analyzed in zooplankton. High frequencies of micronucleus were observed in zooplankton cells during summer. AChE activities were inhibited during early winter and summer. CAT and MDA biomarker levels showed high seasonal variability, suggesting that animals are permanently exposed to multiple oxidative stress. The results of this study suggest that the Bir Mcherga dam is subject to continuous multi-origin stress, probably amplified by abiotic parameters. It is then recommended to urgently monitor freshwater environments in Tunisia, especially those used for irrigation and consumption.

Keywords: Biomonitoring, Bir Mcherga Dam, cladocerans, copepods, freshwater zooplankton, genotoxicity, neurotoxicity, oxidative stress, Tunisia

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Authors: Chi-Ying Yu

Abstract:

Fashion design is, in fact, an aesthetic inquiry of fabric, style and human body. In recent years, close cooperation between the artistic circles and the fashion world has even brought fashion into the arena of contemporary art. This study offers a case study on the avant-garde fashion designer Alexander McQueen, investigating how he and his brand translate fashion into contemporary art at various levels. Firstly, in terms of his designs themselves, McQueen demonstrates through fashions his declarations on political and gender issues, demonstrating his unique barbarian aesthetics and creating an enchanting sublimity. Secondly, McQueen extends his fashion aesthetics into a cross-disciplinary performing method, and raises catwalk shows to the level of complete artistic experience. Finally, and also most importantly, the brand has been producing fashion movies for its seasonal design series. By means of an abstract, non-narrative visual language, these films essentially transform people’s experience of clothing – from the senses to the pure visual. This is not simply a cross-media artistic practice, but much more fundamentally a discourse on contemporary perceptual experience. From the case of Alexander McQueen, it can be argued that avant-garde fashion has broken through the boundary between design and art, issuing its own art manifesto through the field of art or non-art.

Keywords: Alexander McQueen, avant-garde fashion, contemporary art, fashion film

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

Abstract:

Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

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