Search results for: logistic model tree

Authors: Pantana Tor-Ngern

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In the global water cycle, tree water use (Tr) largely contributes to evapotranspiration which is the total amount of water evaporated from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, regulating climates. Tree water use responds to environmental factors, including atmospheric humidity and sunlight (represented by vapor pressure deficit or VPD and photosynthetically active radiation or PAR, respectively) and soil moisture. In forests, Tr responses to such factors depend on species and their spatial and temporal variations. Tropical forests in Southeast Asia (SEA) have experienced land-use conversion from abandoned agricultural practices, resulting in patches of forests at different stages including old-growth and secondary forests. Because the inherent structures, such as canopy height and tree density, significantly vary among forests at different stages and can strongly affect their respective microclimate, Tr and its responses to changing environmental conditions in successional forests may differ. Daily and seasonal variations in the environmental factors may exert significant impacts on the respective Tr patterns. Extrapolating Tr data from short periods of days to longer periods of seasons or years can be complex and is important for estimating long-term ecosystem water use which often includes normal and abnormal climatic conditions. Thus, this study aims to investigate the diurnal variation of Tr, using measured sap flux density (JS) data, with changes in VPD in eight evergreen tree species in an old-growth forest (hereafter OF; >200 years old) and a young forest (hereafter YF, <10 years old) in Khao Yai National Park, Thailand. The studied species included Sysygium syzygoides, Aquilaria crassna, Cinnamomum subavenium, Nephelium melliferum, Altingia excelsa in OF, and Syzygium nervosum and Adinandra integerrima in YF. Only Sysygium antisepticum was found in both forest stages. Specifically, hysteresis, which indicates the asymmetrical changes of JS in response to changing VPD across daily timescale, was examined in these species. Results showed no hysteresis in all species in OF, except Altingia excelsa which exhibited a 3-hour delayed JS response to VPD. In contrast, JS of all species in YF displayed one-hour delayed responses to VPD. The OF species that showed no hysteresis indicated their well-coupling of their canopies with the atmosphere, facilitating the gas exchange which is essential for tree growth. The delayed responses in Altingia excelsa in OF and all species in YF were associated with higher JS in the morning than that in the afternoon. This implies that these species were sensitive to drying air, closing stomata relatively rapidly compared to the decreasing atmospheric humidity (VPD). Such behavior is often observed in trees growing in dry environments. This study suggests that detailed investigation of JS at sub-daily timescales is imperative for better understanding of mechanistic responses of trees to the changing climate, which will benefit the improvement of earth system models.

Keywords: sap flow, tropical forest, forest succession, thermal dissipcation probe

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Authors: Michelle R. Sullivan

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Positive romantic relationships and marriages offer a buffer against a host of physical and emotional difficulties. Conversely, poor relationship quality and marital discord can have deleterious consequences for individuals and families. Research has described non-monogamy, infidelity, and consensual non-monogamy, as both consequential and causal of relationship difficulty, or as a unique way a couple strives to make a relationship work. Much research on consensual non-monogamy has built on feminist theory and critique. To the author’s best knowledge, to date, no studies have examined the predictive relationship between individual and relationship characteristics and expectations of non-monogamy. The current longitudinal study: 1) estimated the prevalence of expectations of partner non-monogamy and 2) evaluated whether gender, sexual identity, age, education, how a couple met, and relationship quality were predictive expectations of partner non-monogamy. This study utilized the publically available longitudinal dataset, How Couples Meet and Stay Together. Adults aged 18- to 98-years old (n=4002) were surveyed by phone over 5 waves from 2009-2014. Demographics and how a couple met were gathered through self-report in Wave 1, and relationship quality and expectations of partner non-monogamy were gathered through self-report in Waves 4 and 5 (n=1047). The prevalence of expectations of partner non-monogamy (encompassing both infidelity and consensual non-monogamy) was 4.8%. Logistic regression models indicated that sexual identity, gender, education, and relationship quality were significantly predictive of expectations of partner non-monogamy. Specifically, male gender, lower education, identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual, and a lower relationship quality scores were predictive of expectations of partner non-monogamy. Male gender was not predictive of expectations of partner non-monogamy in the follow up logistic regression model. Age and whether a couple met online were not associated with expectations of partner non-monogamy. Clinical implications include awareness of the increased likelihood of lesbian, gay, and bisexual individuals to have an expectation of non-monogamy and the sequelae of relationship dissatisfaction that may be related. Future research directions could differentiate between non-monogamy subtypes and the person and relationship variables that lead to the likelihood of consensual non-monogamy and infidelity as separate constructs, as well as explore the relationship between predicting partner behavior and actual partner behavioral outcomes.

Keywords: open relationship, polyamory, infidelity, relationship satisfaction

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Authors: Arslan Murtaza

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Model Driven Architecture (MDA) is technique presented by OMG (Object Management Group) for software development in which different models are proposed and converted them into code. The main plan is to identify task by using PIM (Platform Independent Model) and transform it into PSM (Platform Specific Model) and then converted into code. In this review paper describes some challenges and issues that are faced in MDA, type and transformation of models (e.g. CIM, PIM and PSM), and evaluation of MDA-based methodologies.

Keywords: OMG, model driven rrchitecture (MDA), computation independent model (CIM), platform independent model (PIM), platform specific model(PSM), MDA-based methodologies

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Authors: Yu Song, Yuefei Jin

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Urban public transportation can be integrated when there is an efficient connection between urban rail lines, however, there are currently no effective or quick solutions being investigated for this connection. This paper analyzes the space-time distribution and travel demand of passenger connection travel based on taxi track data and data from the road network, excavates potential bus connection stations based on potential connection demand data, and introduces the link growth probability model in the complex network to solve the basic connection bus lines in order to ascertain the direction of the bus lines that are the most connected given the demand characteristics. Then, a tree view exhaustive approach based on constraints is suggested based on graph theory, which can hasten the convergence of findings while doing chain calculations. This study uses WEI QU NAN Station, the Xi'an Metro Line 2 terminal station in Shaanxi Province, as an illustration, to evaluate the model's and the solution method's efficacy. According to the findings, 153 prospective stations have been dug up in total, the feeder bus network for the entire line has been laid out, and the best route adjustment strategy has been found.

Keywords: feeder bus, route optimization, link growth probability, the graph theory

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Authors: Puja Sharma, S. R. Dhiman, Bhararti Kashyap, Y. C. Gupta, Shabnam Pangtu

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The experiments were carried out for mass multiplication and domestication of an endangered native tree spp, an orchid and an ornamental shrub having high medicinal value. Floriculture industry is novelty driven, hence the potential of these native ornamentals was assessed for their utilization as a novelty in the industry. For the mass propagation of endangered tree Oroxylum indicum, seed propagation and vegetative propagation techniques were successfully utilized. Highest seed germination was recorded in a medium containing cocopeat and perlite (1:1 v/v). Semi hard wood cuttings treated with IBA 2000 ppm planted in cocopeat+ sand+ perlite medium and maintained at 80% RH has resulted in about 90% rooting. The low growing tree was successfully domestication and has potential to be utilized in landscape industry. In the present study, cutting propagation and division of clump were used as methods for multiplication of Aerides multiflora, a native orchid spp. Soft wood cuttings treated with IBA 500 ppm planted in cocopeat medium was found to be the most suitable vegetative method resulting in 90 % rooting. It was domesticated as pot plant and for making hanging baskets. Propagation through seeds and cuttings was carried out for Pyracantha crenulata, a native ornamental shrub which is a cardiovascular medicine. For vegetative propagation, treatment of basal end of semi- hardwood cuttings of Pyracantha with IBA 3000 ppm (quick dip) and planting in cocopeat under mist chamber maintained at a relative humidity of 70-80% resulted in about 90% rooting out of all applied treatments in the study. For seed propagation, treatment of seeds in boiling water for 20 minutes and planting in cocopeat resulted in 82.55 % germination. The shrub was domesticated for its use as pot plant, protective hedge and for making bonsai.

Keywords: native, endangered, multiplication, domestication, oroxylum, aerides, pyracantha

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Authors: Kusmartono, Siti Chuzaemi, Hartutik dan Mashudi

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Two studies were conducted involving an in vitro (Expt 1) and in vivo (Expt 2) measurements. Expt 1. aimed to evaluate effects of adding CT extracts on gas production and efficiency of microbial protein synthesis (EMPS), Expt 2 aimed to evaluate effects of supplementing shrub/tree leaves as CT source on feed consumption, digestibility, N retention, body weight gain and dressing percentage of growing sheep fed on elephant grass (EG) as a basal diet.Ten shrub and tree leaves used as CT sources were wild sunflower (Tithonia diversifolia), mulberry (Morus macroura), cassava (Manihot utilissima), avicienna (Avicennia marina), calliandra (Calliandra calothyrsus), sesbania (Sesbania grandiflora), acacia (acacia vilosa), glyricidia (Glyricidia sepium), jackfruit (Artocarpus heterophyllus), moringa (Moringa oleifera). The treatments applied in Expt 1 were: T1=Elephant grass (60%)+concentrate (40%); T2 = T1 + CT (3% DM); T3= T2 + PEG; T4 = T1 + CT (3.5% DM); T5 = T4 + PEG; T6 = T1 + CT (4% DM) and T7 = T6 + PEG. Data obtained were analysed using Randomized Block Design. Statistical analyses showed that treatments significanty affected (P<0.05) total gas production and EMPS. The lowest values of total gas production (45.9 ml/500 mg DM) and highest value of EMPS (64.6 g/kg BOTR) were observed in the treatment T4 (3.5% CT from cassava leave extract). Based on this result it was concluded that this treatment was the best and was chosen for further investigation using in vivo method. The treatmets applied for in vivo trial were: T1 = EG (60%) + concentrate (40%); T2 = T1 + dried cassava leave (equivalent to 3.5% CT); T3 = T2 + PEG. 18 growing sheep aging of 8-9 months and weighing of 23.67kg ± 1.23 were used in Expt 2. Results of in vivo study showed that treatments significanty affected (P<0.05) nutrients intake and digestibility (DM, OM and CP). N retention for sheep receiving treatment T2 were significantly higher (P<0.05; 15.6 g/d) than T1 (9.1 g/d) and T3 (8.53 g/d). Similar results were obtained for daily weight gain where T2 were the highest (62.79 g/d), followed by T1 (51.9 g/d) and T3 (52.85 g/d). Dressing percentage of T2 was the highest (51.54%) followed by T1 (49.61%) and T3 (49.32%). It can be concluded that adding adding dried cassava leaves did not reduce palatability due to CT, but rather increased OM digestibility and hence feed consumption was improved. N retention was increased due to the action of CT in the cassava leaves and this may have explained a higher input of N into duodenum which was further led to higer daily weight gain and dressing percentage.

Keywords: in vitro gas production, sheep, shrub and tree leaves, condensed tannin

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Authors: Goreti Botelho, Filomena Gomes, Fernanda M. Ferreira, Ilda Caldeira

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The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) is a small tree or shrub from botanical Ericaceae family that grows spontaneously nearby the Mediterranean basin and produce edible red fruits. A traditional processed fruit application, in Mediterranean countries, is the production of a spirit (known as aguardente de medronho, in Portugal) obtained from the fermented fruit. The main objective of our study was to contribute to the knowledge about the influence of the degree of maturation of fruits in the volatile composition and quality of arbutus spirit. The major volatiles in the three distillates fractions (head, heart and tail) obtained from fermentation of two different fruit maturation levels were quantified by GC-FID analysis and ANOVA one-way was performed. Additionally, the total antioxidant capacity and total phenolic compounds of both arbutus fruit spirits were determined, by ABTS and Folin-Ciocalteau method, respectively. The methanol concentration is superior (1022.39 g/hL a.a.) in the spirit made from fruits with highest total soluble solids, which is a value above the legal limit (1000 g/hL a.a.). Overall, our study emphasizes, for the first time, the influence of maturation degree of arbutus fruits in the spirit volatile composition and quality.

Keywords: arbutus fruit, maturation, quality, spirit

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Authors: Yunfeng Shan, Xiaoliang Wang, Youjun Zhou

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Whole-genome data from two lungfish species, along with other species, present a valuable opportunity to re-investigate the longstanding debate regarding the evolutionary relationships among tetrapods, lungfishes, and coelacanths. However, the use of bootstrap support has become outdated for large-scale phylogenomic data. Without robust phylogenetic support, the phylogenetic trees become meaningless. Therefore, it is necessary to re-evaluate the phylogenies of tetrapods, lungfishes, and coelacanths using novel measures of phylogenetic support specifically designed for phylogenomic data, as the previous phylogenies were based on 100% bootstrap support. Our findings consistently provide strong evidence favoring lungfish as the closest living relative of tetrapods. This conclusion is based on high internode certainty, relative gene support, and high gene concordance factor. The evidence stems from five previous datasets derived from lungfish transcriptomes. These results yield fresh insights into the three hypotheses regarding the phylogenies of tetrapods, lungfishes, and coelacanths. Importantly, these hypotheses are not mere conjectures but are substantiated by a significant number of genes. Analyzing real biological data further demonstrates that the inclusion of additional taxa leads to more diverse tree topologies. Consequently, gene trees and species trees may not be identical even when whole-genome sequencing data is utilized. However, it is worth noting that many gene trees can accurately reflect the species tree if an appropriate number of taxa, typically ranging from six to ten, are sampled. Therefore, it is crucial to carefully select the number of taxa and an appropriate outgroup, such as slow-evolving species, while excluding fast-evolving taxa as outgroups to mitigate the adverse effects of long-branch attraction and achieve an accurate reconstruction of the species tree. This is particularly important as more whole-genome sequencing data becomes available.

Keywords: novel measures of phylogenetic support for phylogenomic data, gene concordance factor confidence, relative gene support, internode certainty, origin of tetrapods

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Authors: Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj, Eva Nedeliakova

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The aim of optimization of store management is not only designing the situation of store management itself including its equipment, technology and operation. In optimization of store management we need to consider also synchronizing of technological, transport, store and service operations throughout the whole process of logistic chain in such a way that a natural flow of material from provider to consumer will be achieved the shortest possible way, in the shortest possible time in requested quality and quantity and with minimum costs. The paper deals with the application of the queuing theory for optimization of warehouse processes. The first part refers to common information about the problematic of warehousing and using mathematical methods for logistics chains optimization. The second part refers to preparing a model of a warehouse within queuing theory. The conclusion of the paper includes two examples of using queuing theory in praxis.

Keywords: queuing theory, logistics system, mathematical methods, warehouse optimization

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Authors: Thidathit Prachanukool, Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Welawat Tienpratarn, Sorravit Savatmongkorngul, Panvilai Tangkulpanich, Chetsadakon Jenpanitpong, Yuranan Phootothum, Malivan Phontabtim, Promphet Nuanprom

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Background: Ruptured appendicitis has a high morbidity and mortality and requires immediate surgery. The Alvarado Score is used as a tool to predict the risk of acute appendicitis, but there is no such score for predicting rupture. This study aimed to developed the prediction score to determine the likelihood of ruptured appendicitis in an Asian population. Methods: This study was diagnostic, retrospectively cross-sectional and exploratory model at the Emergency Medicine Department in Ramathibodi Hospital between March 2016 and March 2018. The inclusion criteria were age >15 years and an available pathology report after appendectomy. Clinical factors included gender, age>60 years, right lower quadrant pain, migratory pain, nausea and/or vomiting, diarrhea, anorexia, fever>37.3°C, rebound tenderness, guarding, white blood cell count, polymorphonuclear white blood cells (PMN)>75%, and the pain duration before presentation. The predictive model and prediction score for ruptured appendicitis was developed by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Result: During the study period, 480 patients met the inclusion criteria; of these, 77 (16%) had ruptured appendicitis. Five independent factors were predictive of rupture, age>60 years, fever>37.3°C, guarding, PMN>75%, and duration of pain>24 hours to presentation. A score > 6 increased the likelihood ratio of ruptured appendicitis by 3.88 times. Conclusion: Using the Ramathibodi Welawat Ruptured Appendicitis Score. (RAMA WeRA Score) developed in this study, a score of > 6 was associated with ruptured appendicitis.

Keywords: predictive model, risk score, ruptured appendicitis, emergency room

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Authors: Mohamed Rabhi, Kouider Halim Benrahou

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The rheological properties of the carbonyl-methylcellulose (CMC), of different concentrations (25000, 50000, 60000, 80000 and 100000 ppm) and different temperatures were studied. We found that the rheological behavior of all CMC solutions presents a pseudo-plastic behavior, it follows the model of Ostwald-de Waele. The objective of this work is the modeling of flow by the CMC Cross model. The Cross model gives us the variation of the viscosity according to the shear rate. This model allowed us to adjust more clearly the rheological characteristics of CMC solutions. A comparison between the Cross model and the model of Ostwald was made. Cross the model fitting parameters were determined by a numerical simulation to make an approach between the experimental curve and those given by the two models. Our study has shown that the model of Cross, describes well the flow of "CMC" for low concentrations.

Keywords: CMC, rheological modeling, Ostwald model, cross model, viscosity

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Libo Jiang, Huan Li, Rongling Wu

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Ordinary differentiation equations (ODE) have proven to be powerful for reconstructing precise and informative gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from dynamic gene expression data. However, joint modeling and analysis of all genes, essential for the systematical characterization of genetic interactions, are challenging due to high dimensionality and a complex pattern of genetic regulation including activation, repression, and antitermination. Here, we address these challenges by unifying variable selection and game theory through ODE. Each gene within a GRN is co-expressed with its partner genes in a way like a game of multiple players, each of which tends to choose an optimal strategy to maximize its “fitness” across the whole network. Based on this unifying theory, we designed and conducted a real experiment to infer salt tolerance-related GRNs for Euphrates poplar, a hero tree that can grow in the saline desert. The pattern and magnitude of interactions between several hub genes within these GRNs were found to determine the capacity of Euphrates poplar to resist to saline stress.

Keywords: gene regulatory network, ordinary differential equation, game theory, LASSO, saline resistance

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Authors: Viet-Hung Truong, Seung-Eock Kim

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Rain–wind induced vibration of inclined cable is a special aerodynamic phenomenon because it is easily influenced by many factors, especially the distribution of rivulet and wind velocity. This paper proposes a new 3D model of inclined cable, based on single degree-of-freedom model. Aerodynamic forces are firstly established and verified with the existing results from a 2D model. The 3D model of inclined cable is developed. The 3D model is then applied to assess the effects of wind velocity distribution and the continuity of rivulets on the cable. Finally, an inclined cable model with small sag is investigated.

Keywords: 3D model, rain - wind induced vibration, rivulet, analytical model

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Authors: Stephen Osakue Amiandamhen, Schwaller Andreas, Martina Meincken, Luvuyo Tyhoda

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Invasive alien tree species are currently being cleared in South Africa as a result of the forest and water imbalances. These species grow wildly constituting about 40% of total forest area. They compete with the ecosystem for natural resources and are considered as ecosystem engineers by rapidly changing disturbance regimes. As such, they are harvested for commercial uses but much of it is wasted because of their form and structure. The waste is being sold to local communities as fuel wood. These species can be considered as potential feedstock for the production of phosphate bonded composites. The presence of bark in wood-based composites leads to undesirable properties, and debarking as an option can be cost implicative. This study investigates the potentials of these invasive species processed without debarking on some fundamental properties of wood-based panels. Some invasive alien tree species were collected from EC Biomass, Port Elizabeth, South Africa. They include Acacia mearnsii (Black wattle), A. longifolia (Long-leaved wattle), A. cyclops (Red-eyed wattle), A. saligna (Golden-wreath wattle) and Eucalyptus globulus (Blue gum). The logs were chipped as received. The chips were hammer-milled and screened through a 1 mm sieve. The wood particles were conditioned and the quantity of bark in the wood was determined. The binding matrix was prepared using a reactive magnesia, phosphoric acid and class S fly ash. The materials were mixed and poured into a metallic mould. The composite within the mould was compressed at room temperature at a pressure of 200 KPa. After initial setting which took about 5 minutes, the composite board was demoulded and air-cured for 72 h. The cured product was thereafter conditioned at 20°C and 70% relative humidity for 48 h. Test of physical and strength properties were conducted on the composite boards. The effect of binder formulation and fly ash content on the properties of the boards was studied using fitted response surface technology, according to a central composite experimental design (CCD) at a fixed wood loading of 75% (w/w) of total inorganic contents. The results showed that phosphate/magnesia ratio of 3:1 and fly ash content of 10% was required to obtain a product of good properties and sufficient strength for intended applications. The proposed products can be used for ceilings, partitioning and insulating wall panels.

Keywords: invasive alien tree species, phosphate bonded composites, physical properties, strength

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Authors: O. Abiodun Adeyinka, B. Adeyemo Adesesan

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The forensic use of handwriting depends on the analysis, comparison, and evaluation decisions made by forensic document examiners. When using biometric technology in forensic applications, it is necessary to compute Likelihood Ratio (LR) for quantifying strength of evidence under two competing hypotheses, namely the prosecution and the defense hypotheses wherein a set of assumptions and methods for a given data set will be made. It is therefore important to know how repeatable and reproducible our estimated LR is. This paper evaluated the accuracy and reproducibility of examiners' decisions. Confidence interval for the estimated LR were presented so as not get an incorrect estimate that will be used to deliver wrong judgment in the court of Law. The estimate of LR is fundamentally a Bayesian concept and we used two LR estimators, namely Logistic Regression (LoR) and Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) for this paper. The repeatability evaluation was carried out by retesting the initial experiment after an interval of six months to observe whether examiners would repeat their decisions for the estimated LR. The experimental results, which are based on handwriting dataset, show that LR has different confidence intervals which therefore implies that LR cannot be estimated with the same certainty everywhere. Though the LoR performed better than the KDE when tested using the same dataset, the two LR estimators investigated showed a consistent region in which LR value can be estimated confidently. These two findings advance our understanding of LR when used in computing the strength of evidence in handwriting using forensics.

Keywords: confidence interval, handwriting, kernel density estimator, KDE, logistic regression LoR, repeatability, reproducibility

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Authors: Pariwat Somnuek

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This study focused on tourism logistic services in the border areas of Thailand by an analysis and comparison of the opinions of tourists, villagers, and entrepreneurs of these services. Sample representatives of this study were a total of 600 villagers and 15 entrepreneurs in the three border areas consisting of Chong Anma, Chong Sa-Ngam, and Chong Jom checkpoints. For methodology, survey questionnaires, situation analysis, TOWS matrix, and focus group discussions were used for data collection, as well as descriptive analysis and statistics such as arithmetic means and standard deviations, were employed for data analysis. The findings revealed that business potential was at the medium level and entrepreneurs were satisfied with their turnovers. However, perspectives of transportation and tourism services provided for tourists need to be immediately improved. Recommendations for the potential development included promotion of border tourism destinations and foreign investments into accommodation, restaurants, and transport, as well as the establishment of business networks between Thailand and Cambodia, along with the introduction of new tourism destinations by co-operation between entrepreneurs in both countries. These initiatives may lead to increased visitors, collaboration of security offices, and an improved image of tourism security.

Keywords: business potential, potential development, tourism logistics, services

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Authors: Waleed El-Said Abou El-Amaiem

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Sole hemorrhages are considered as a main cause for sub clinical laminitis. In this study we aimed at discussing the most prominent risk factors associated with sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows. The final multivariate logistic regression model showed, a significant association between sub acute ruminal acidosis (P< 0.05), limb affected (P< 0.05) and weight (P< 0.05) and sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows. According to our knowledge, this is the first paper to discuss the risk factors associated with sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows.

Keywords: lameness, buffalo, sole hemorrhages, breed cows

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Authors: Go Bong Choi, Shin Je Lee, Sung Jin Yoo, Gibaek Lee, Jong Min Lee

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In South Korea, it is difficult to obtain data for statistical pipe assessment. In this paper, to address these issues, we find that various statistical model presented before is how data mixed with noise and are whether apply in South Korea. Three major type of model is studied and if data is presented in the paper, we add noise to data, which affects how model response changes. Moreover, we generate data from model in paper and analyse effect of noise. From this we can find robustness and applicability in Korea of each model.

Keywords: proportional hazard model, survival model, water main deterioration, ecological sciences

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Authors: Ana Julia Acevedo Urquiaga, Jose A. Acevedo Suarez, Ana Julia Urquiaga Rodriguez, Neyfe Sablon Cossio

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Despite the progress made in logistics and supply chains fields, it is unavoidable the development of business models that use efficiently information to facilitate the integrated logistics flows management between partners. Collaborative management is an important tool for materializing the cooperation between companies, as a way to achieve the supply chain efficiency and effectiveness. The first face of this research was a comprehensive analysis of the collaborative planning on the Cuban companies. It is evident that they have difficulties in supply chains planning where production, supplies and replenishment planning are independent tasks, as well as logistics and distribution operations. Large inventories generate serious financial and organizational problems for entities, demanding increasing levels of working capital that cannot be financed. Problems were found in the efficient application of Information and Communication Technology on business management. The general objective of this work is to develop a methodology that allows the deployment of a planning and control system in a coordinated way on the medicine’s logistics system in Cuba. To achieve these objectives, several mechanisms of supply chain coordination, mathematical programming models, and other management techniques were analyzed to meet the requirements of collaborative logistics management in Cuba. One of the findings is the practical and theoretical inadequacies of the studied models to solve the current situation of the Cuban logistics systems management. To contribute to the tactical-operative management of logistics, the Collaborative Logistics Flow Management Model (CLFMM) is proposed as a tool for the balance of cycles, capacities, and inventories, always to meet the final customers’ demands in correspondence with the service level expected by these. The CLFMM has as center the supply chain planning and control system as a unique information system, which acts on the processes network. The development of the model is based on the empirical methods of analysis-synthesis and the study cases. Other finding is the demonstration of the use of a single information system to support the supply chain logistics management, allows determining the deadlines and quantities required in each process. This ensures that medications are always available to patients and there are no faults that put the population's health at risk. The simulation of planning and control with the CLFMM in medicines such as dipyrone and chlordiazepoxide, during 5 months of 2017, permitted to take measures to adjust the logistic flow, eliminate delayed processes and avoid shortages of the medicines studied. As a result, the logistics cycle efficiency can be increased to 91%, the inventory rotation would increase, and this results in a release of financial resources.

Keywords: collaborative management, medicine logistic system, supply chain planning, tactical-operative planning

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Authors: Dwi Kartika Rukmi, Miftafu Darussalam

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Background: The disclosure of women’s HIV status toward their sexual partners is an important issue that should be regarded as one of the efforts to prevent and control the spread of HIV. Research on the disclosure of seropositive HIV status as well as women-related factors in Indonesia, especially Yogyakarta is only a few. Methods: This is a correlational descriptive research along with its cross-sectional approach on 329 women with HIV/AIDS at the Victory Plus NGO from June to July 2016. This research used a purposive sampling method and a questionnaire as the data collection technique. The bivariate analysis test was undertaken by using a chi-square and multivariate test along with a logistic regression. Result: The multivariate analysis and logistic regression show five independent variables related to the disclosure of seropositive HIV status of women with HIV/AIDS toward their sexual partners, namely ethnicity (aOR = 36,859; 95% CI; (6,544-207,616)) religion (aOR =0,255; 95%CI; (0,075-0,868)), discussion with partners prior to the HIV test (aOR =0,069; 95%CI; (0,065-0,438)) , types of sexual partners (aOR = 0.191; 95% CI; (0.082-0,445)) and knowledge on the partners’ HIV status (aOR = 0.036; 95% CI; (0.008-0.160)). The highest level of reason for seropositive HIV women not to be open about their partners’ status is the fear of being rejected by their partners and the environmental stigma of HIV AIDS disease. Conclusion: The disclosure of seropositive HIV status in women with HIV/AIDS in the Victory Plus NGO of Yogyakarta was 79.4% or classified as a high category with some related factors such as ethnicity, religion, discussion with partners prior to the HIV test, types of partners and knowledge on the partners’ HIV status.

Keywords: women, HIV, disclosure, sexual partner

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Authors: Jigg Pelayo, Ricardo Villar

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The Philippines is long considered as a valuable producer of high value crops globally. The country’s employment and economy have been dependent on agriculture, thus increasing its demand for the efficient agricultural mechanism. Remote sensing and geographic information technology have proven to effectively provide applications for precision agriculture through image-processing technique considering the development of the aerial scanning technology in the country. Accurate information concerning the spatial correlation within the field is very important for precision farming of high value crops, especially. The availability of height information and high spatial resolution images obtained from aerial scanning together with the development of new image analysis methods are offering relevant influence to precision agriculture techniques and applications. In this study, an algorithm was developed and implemented to detect and count high value crops simultaneously through adaptive scaling of support vector machine (SVM) algorithm subjected to object-oriented approach combining watershed transformation and local maxima filter in enhancing tree counting and detection. The methodology is compared to cutting-edge template matching algorithm procedures to demonstrate its effectiveness on a demanding tree is counting recognition and delineation problem. Since common data and image processing techniques are utilized, thus can be easily implemented in production processes to cover large agricultural areas. The algorithm is tested on high value crops like Palm, Mango and Coconut located in Misamis Oriental, Philippines - showing a good performance in particular for young adult and adult trees, significantly 90% above. The s inventories or database updating, allowing for the reduction of field work and manual interpretation tasks.

Keywords: high value crop, LiDAR, OBIA, precision agriculture

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Authors: Akhilesh G. Naik, Dipankar Pal

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In today’s scenario, the complexity of digital signal processing (DSP) applications and various microcontroller architectures have been increasing to such an extent that the traditional approaches to multiplier design in most processors are becoming outdated for being comparatively slow. Modern processing applications require suitable pipelined approaches, and therefore, algorithms that are friendlier with pipelined architectures. Traditional algorithms like Wallace Tree, Radix-4 Booth, Radix-8 Booth, Dadda architectures have been proven to be comparatively slow for pipelined architectures. These architectures, therefore, need to be optimized or combined with other architectures amongst them to enhance its performances and to be made suitable for pipelined hardware/architectures. Recently, Vedic algorithm mathematically has proven to be efficient by appearing to be less complex and with fewer steps for its output establishment and have assumed renewed importance. This paper describes and shows how the Vedic algorithm can be better suited for pipelined architectures and also can be combined with traditional architectures and algorithms for enhancing its ability even further. In this paper, we also established that for complex applications on DSP and other microcontroller architectures, using Vedic approach for multiplication proves to be the best available and efficient option.

Keywords: Wallace Tree, Radix-4 Booth, Radix-8 Booth, Dadda, Vedic, Single-Stage Karatsuba (SSK), Looped Karatsuba (LK)

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Authors: Luz del Carmen Rubí Félix Peña, Jose Adan Felix-Ortiz, Ely Sara Lopez-Alvarez, Wenceslao Valenzuela-Quiñonez

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On a global scale, Mexico is the sixth largest producer of farmed white shrimp (Penaeus vannamei). The activity suffered significant economic losses due to acute hepatopancreatic necrosis (AHPND) caused by a strain of Vibrio parahaemolyticus. For control, the first option is the application of antibiotics in food, causing changes in the environment and bacterial communities, which has produced greater virulence and resistance of pathogenic bacteria. An alternative treatment is silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) generated by green synthesis, which have shown an antibacterial capacity by destroying the cell membrane or denaturing the cell. However, the doses at which these are effective are still unknown. The aim is to calculate the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) using the Gompertz, Richard, and Logistic model of biosynthesized AgNPs against a strain of V. parahaemolyticus. Through the testing of different formulations of AgNPs synthesized from Euphorbia prostrate (Ep) extracts against V. parahaemolyticus causing AHPND in white shrimp. Aqueous and ethanol extracts were obtained, and the concentration of phenols and flavonoids was quantified. In the antibiograms, AgNPs were formulated in ethanol extracts of Ep (20 and 30%). The inhibition halo at well dilution test were 18±1.7 and 17.67±2.1 mm against V. parahaemolyticus. A broth microdilution was performed with the inhibitory agents (aqueous and ethanolic extracts and AgNPs) and 20 μL of the inoculum of V. parahaemolyticus. The MIC for AgNPs was 6.2-9.3 μg/mL and for ethanol extract of 49-73 mg/mL. The Akaike index (AIC) was used to choose the Gompertz model for ethanol extracts of Ep as the best data descriptor (AIC=204.8, 10%; 45.5, 20%, and 204.8, 30%). The Richards model was at AgNPs ethanol extract with AIC=-9.3 (10%), -17.5 (20 and 30%). The MIC calculated for EP extracts with the modified Gompertz model were 20 mg/mL (10% and 20% extract) and 40 mg/mL at 30%, while Richard was winner for AgNPs-synthesized it was 5 μg/mL (10% and 20%) and 8 μg/mL (30%). The solver tool Excel was used for the calculations of the models and inhibition curves against V.parahaemolyticus.

Keywords: green synthesis, euphorbia prostata, phenols, flavonoids, bactericide

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Authors: A. Ramalho, L. Romeiro, R. Ventura, A. Suleman

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A real-time path planning framework for Unmanned Air Vehicles, and in particular multi-rotors is proposed. The framework is designed to provide feasible trajectories from the current UAV position to a goal state, taking into account constraints such as obstacle avoidance, problem kinematics, and vehicle limitations such as maximum speed and maximum acceleration. The framework computes feasible paths online, allowing to avoid new, unknown, dynamic obstacles without fully re-computing the trajectory. These features are achieved using an iterative process in which the robot computes and optimizes the trajectory while performing the mission objectives. A first trajectory is computed using a modified Rapidly-Exploring Random Tree (RRT) algorithm, that provides trajectories that respect a maximum curvature constraint. The trajectory optimization is accomplished using the Interior Point Optimizer (IPOPT) as a solver. The framework has proven to be able to compute a trajectory and optimize to a locally optimal with computational efficiency making it feasible for real-time operations.

Keywords: interior point optimization, multi-rotors, online path planning, rapidly exploring random trees, trajectory optimization

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Authors: Marlin Mubarak

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Background: Endometriosis is a complex disabling disease affecting young females in the reproductive period mainly. The aim of this project is to generate a diagnostic model to predict severity and stage of endometriosis prior to Laparoscopic surgery. This will help to improve the pre-operative diagnostic accuracy of stage 3 & 4 endometriosis and as a result, refer relevant women to a specialist centre for complex Laparoscopic surgery. The model is based on the British Society of Gynaecological Endoscopy (BSGE) pain questionnaire, clinical examination and ultrasound scan. Design: This is a prospective, observational, study, in which women completed the BSGE pain questionnaire, a BSGE requirement. Also, as part of the routine preoperative assessment patient had a routine ultrasound scan and when recto-vaginal and deep infiltrating endometriosis was suspected an MRI was performed. Setting: Luton & Dunstable University Hospital. Patients: Symptomatic women (n = 56) scheduled for laparoscopy due to pelvic pain. The age ranged between 17 – 52 years of age (mean 33.8 years, SD 8.7 years). Interventions: None outside the recognised and established endometriosis centre protocol set up by BSGE. Main Outcome Measure(s): Sensitivity and specificity of endometriosis diagnosis predicted by symptoms based on BSGE pain questionnaire, clinical examinations and imaging. Findings: The prevalence of diagnosed endometriosis was calculated to be 76.8% and the prevalence of advanced stage was 55.4%. Deep infiltrating endometriosis in various locations was diagnosed in 32/56 women (57.1%) and some had DIE involving several locations. Logistic regression analysis was performed on 36 clinical variables to create a simple clinical prediction model. After creating the scoring system using variables with P < 0.05, the model was applied to the whole dataset. The sensitivity was 83.87% and specificity 96%. The positive likelihood ratio was 20.97 and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.17, indicating that the model has a good predictive value and could be useful in predicting advanced stage endometriosis. Conclusions: This is a hypothesis-generating project with one operator, but future proposed research would provide validation of the model and establish its usefulness in the general setting. Predictive tools based on such model could help organise the appropriate investigation in clinical practice, reduce risks associated with surgery and improve outcome. It could be of value for future research to standardise the assessment of women presenting with pelvic pain. The model needs further testing in a general setting to assess if the initial results are reproducible.

Keywords: deep endometriosis, endometriosis, minimally invasive, MRI, ultrasound.

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Authors: S. Turkan

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In this paper, the Turkey’s Top 500 Industrial Enterprises data in 2014 were analyzed by data envelopment analysis. Data envelopment analysis is used to detect efficient decision-making units such as universities, hospitals, schools etc. by using inputs and outputs. The decision-making units in this study are enterprises. To detect efficient enterprises, some financial ratios are determined as inputs and outputs. For this reason, financial indicators related to productivity of enterprises are considered. The efficient foreign weighted owned capital enterprises are detected via super efficiency model. According to the results, it is said that Mercedes-Benz is the most efficient foreign weighted owned capital enterprise in Turkey.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, super efficiency, logistic regression, financial ratios

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Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

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Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

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Authors: Yunfeng Shan, Xiaoliang Wang, Youjun Zhou

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Whole-genome data from two lungfish species, along with other species, present a valuable opportunity to reassess the longstanding debate regarding the evolutionary relationships among tetrapods, lungfishes, and coelacanths. However, the use of bootstrap support has become outdated for large-scale phylogenomic data. Without robust phylogenetic support, the phylogenetic trees become meaningless. Therefore, it is necessary to re-evaluate the phylogenies of tetrapods, lungfishes, and coelacanths using novel measures of phylogenetic support specifically designed for phylogenomic data, as the previous phylogenies were based on 100% bootstrap support. Our findings consistently provide strong evidence favoring lungfish as the closest living relative of tetrapods. This conclusion is based on high gene support confidence with confidence intervals exceeding 95%, high internode certainty, and high gene concordance factor. The evidence stems from two datasets containing recently deciphered whole genomes of two lungfish species, as well as five previous datasets derived from lungfish transcriptomes. These results yield fresh insights into the three hypotheses regarding the phylogenies of tetrapods, lungfishes, and coelacanths. Importantly, these hypotheses are not mere conjectures but are substantiated by a significant number of genes. Analyzing real biological data further demonstrates that the inclusion of additional taxa diminishes the number of orthologues and leads to more diverse tree topologies. Consequently, gene trees and species trees may not be identical even when whole-genome sequencing data is utilized. However, it is worth noting that many gene trees can accurately reflect the species tree if an appropriate number of taxa, typically ranging from six to ten, are sampled. Therefore, it is crucial to carefully select the number of taxa and an appropriate outgroup while excluding fast-evolving taxa as outgroups to mitigate the adverse effects of long-branch attraction (LBA) and achieve an accurate reconstruction of the species tree. This is particularly important as more whole-genome sequencing data becomes available.

Keywords: gene support confidence (GSC), origin of land vertebrates, coelacanth, two whole genomes of lungfishes, confidence intervals

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Authors: Liang Cheng Chang, Wei Ju Huang, You Cheng Chen

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Investigation and research are keys for conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources. The hydrogeological structure is an important base for groundwater analysis and simulation. Traditionally, the hydrogeological structure is artificially determined based on geological drill logs, the structure of wells, groundwater levels, and so on. In Taiwan, groundwater observation network has been built and a large amount of groundwater-level observation data are available. The groundwater level is the state variable of the groundwater system, which reflects the system response combining hydrogeological structure, groundwater injection, and extraction. This study applies analytical tools to the observation database to develop a methodology for the identification of confined and unconfined aquifers. These tools include frequency analysis, cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and groundwater level, groundwater regression curve analysis, and decision tree. The developed methodology is then applied to groundwater layer identification of two groundwater systems: Zhuoshui River alluvial fan and Pingtung Plain. The abovementioned frequency analysis uses Fourier Transform processing time-series groundwater level observation data and analyzing daily frequency amplitude of groundwater level caused by artificial groundwater extraction. The cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and groundwater level is used to obtain the groundwater replenishment time between infiltration and the peak groundwater level during wet seasons. The groundwater regression curve, the average rate of groundwater regression, is used to analyze the internal flux in the groundwater system and the flux caused by artificial behaviors. The decision tree uses the information obtained from the above mentioned analytical tools and optimizes the best estimation of the hydrogeological structure. The developed method reaches training accuracy of 92.31% and verification accuracy 93.75% on Zhuoshui River alluvial fan and training accuracy 95.55%, and verification accuracy 100% on Pingtung Plain. This extraordinary accuracy indicates that the developed methodology is a great tool for identifying hydrogeological structures.

Keywords: aquifer identification, decision tree, groundwater, Fourier transform

Procedia PDF Downloads 148