Search results for: ecological risk index

Authors: Muhammad Sohail Sajid, Muhammad Abdullah Malik, Muhammad Saqib, Faiz Ahmad Raza, Waseem Akram

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Aedes (Ae.) aegypti, the vector of pathogens of one health significance, has gained currency over the last decade. The present study reports the prevalence of A. aegypti larvae in indoor and outdoor niches from the three districts of different agro-geo-climatic zones of Punjab, including Chakwal (north), Faisalabad (central), and Dera Ghazi Khan (south). Mosquito larvae were collected, preserved, and transferred for identification. The relevant data were collected on a predesigned questionnaire. Stegomyia indices, including House Index (HI), Breteau Index (BI), and Container Index (CI), were calculated. The association of different breeding containers with the prevalence of Ae. aegypti larvae were estimated through Chi-square analysis. The highest Stegomyia indices were calculated in Chakwal (HI = 46.61%, BI = 91.67%, and CI = 15.28%) as compared to Faisalabad (HI = 34.11%, BI = 68.75% and, CI = 13.04%) and DG Khan (HI = 28.39%, BI = 68.23% and, CI = 11.29%), respectively. Irrespective of the geographical area, earthen jars, water tanks, and tree holes were found to be significantly associated (p < 0.05) with the abundance of Ae. aegypti larvae. However, tires and plastic bottles in Faisalabad and DG Khan while flower tubs and plastic buckets in Faisalabad and Chakwal were found to be significantly associated (p < 0.05) with the larval abundance. The results are a maiden attempt to correlate the magnitude of Ae. aegypti larvae in various microclimatic niches of Punjab, Pakistan, which might help in policy-making for preventive management of the menace.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, ecology, breeding habitats, Stegomyia indices, breeding containers

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Authors: Faisal Alshammari, Abdulmajid Addali, Mosab Alrashed, Taihiret Alhashan

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The application of acoustic emission techniques is gaining popularity, as it can monitor the condition of gears and bearings and detect early symptoms of a defect in the form of pitting, wear, and flaking of surfaces. Early detection of these defects is essential as it helps to avoid major failures and the associated catastrophic consequences. Signal processing techniques are required for early defect detection – in this article, a time domain technique called the Energy Index (EI) is used. This article presents an investigation into the Energy Index’s effectiveness to detect early-stage defect initiation and deterioration, and compares it with the common r.m.s. index, Kurtosis, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. It is concluded that EI is a more effective technique for monitoring defect initiation and development than other statistical parameters.

Keywords: acoustic emission, signal processing, kurtosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: ebola, epidemic risk, medical ethics, medical humanities

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Authors: E. Kharaishvili

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The paper shows the necessity of farm diversification in accordance with the current trends in agricultural sector of Georgia. The possibilities for the diversification and the corresponding economic policy are suggested. The causes that hinder diversification of farms are revealed, possibilities of diversification are suggested and the ability of increasing employment through diversification is proved. Index of harvest diversification is calculated based on the areas used for cereals and legumes, potatoes and vegetables and other food crops. Crop and livestock production indexes are analyzed, correlation between crop capacity index and value-added per one worker and one ha is studied. Based on the research farm diversification strategies and priorities of corresponding economic policy are presented. Based on the conclusions relevant recommendations are suggested.

Keywords: farm diversification, diversification index, agricultural development policy

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Magid Maatallah

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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Han Tae Hee

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This study aims to examine the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement on the supply chain risk management through buyer-supplier relationship. The population of the research is 44 Korean companies domiciled in East and Central Java of Indonesia. The respondent consists of a top management level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result revealed that supplier trust has an effect on supply chain risk management, top management involvement affects supply chain risk management, supplier trust influences buyer-supplier relationship, top management involvement affects the buyer-supplier relationship, and buyer-supplier relationship affects supply chain risk management. The last finding is that buyer-supplier relationship empirically mediates the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement.

Keywords: buyer supplier relationship, supplier trust, supply chain risk management, top management involvement

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Soressa Tolcha Jarra

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This research paper delves into the assessment of self-reliance indexes within drought-affected pastoralist communities of the Borena Zone, Ethiopia, in enhancing self-reliance among community members. Through a mixed-methods approach, including surveys, interviews, and field observations, the study evaluates the socioeconomic impact initiatives on livelihoods, resilience, and community empowerment. For measuring the progress of households towards self-reliance, the Self-Reliance-Index (SRI) was used by comparing the data/index score of a responding humanitarian-development-peace triple nexus project beneficiary from the baseline in October 2023 with data of the same responding beneficiary from this research done in May 2024. In this case, the 373 respondents that were interviewed during both surveys were chosen to represent the population of interest at the moment of each survey. The Self-Reliance-Index (SRI) has an average value of 2.02 for respondents during the baseline and an average value of 2.37 for respondents of the study, representing thus a positive difference of 0.35. Moreover, the study disaggregated the findings into four groups for further interpretation of the SRI analysis. The findings contribute to the discourse on sustainable development strategies in arid and semi-arid regions, offering practical recommendations for future interventions and policy formulation.

Keywords: Borena, drought, pastoralist, self-reliance index (SRI)

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Authors: Jeongwoo Lee

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Children are the most vulnerable travelers and they are at risk for pedestrian injury. Creating a safe route to school is important because walking to school is one of the main opportunities for promotion of needed physical exercise among children. This study examined how the built environmental attributes near an elementary school influence traffic accidents among school-aged children. The study used two complementary data sources including the locations of police-reported pedestrian crashes and the built environmental characteristics of school areas. The environmental attributes of road segments were collected through GIS measurements of local data and actual site audits using the inventory developed for measuring pedestrian-crash risk scores. The inventory data collected at 840 road segments near 32 elementary schools in the city of Ulsan. We observed all segments in a 300-meter-radius area from the entrance of an elementary school. Segments are street block faces. The inventory included 50 items, organized into four domains: accessibility (17items), pleasurability (11items), perceived safety from traffic (9items), and traffic and land-use measures (13items). Elementary schools were categorized into two groups based on the distribution of the pedestrian-crash hazard index scores. A high pedestrian-crash zone was defined as an school area within the eighth, ninth, and tenth deciles, while no pedestrian-crash zone was defined as a school zone with no pedestrian-crash accident among school-aged children between 2013 and 2016. No- and high pedestrian-crash zones were compared to determine whether different settings of the built environment near the school lead to a different rate of pedestrian-crash incidents. The results showed that a crash risk can be influenced by several environmental factors such as a shape of school-route, number of intersections, visibility and land-use in a street, and a type of sidewalk. The findings inform policy for creating safe routes to school to reduce the pedestrian-crash risk among children by focusing on school zones.

Keywords: active school travel, school zone, pedestrian crash, safety route to school

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Shailaja Thakur

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Managerial literature abounds with discussions on business strategies, success stories as well as cases of failure, which provide an indication of the parameters that should be considered in gauging the dynamism of an entrepreneur. Neoclassical economics has reduced entrepreneurship to a mere factor of production, driven solely by the profit motive, thus stripping him of all creativity and restricting his decision making to mechanical calculations. His ‘dynamism’ is gauged simply by the amount of profits he earns, marginalizing any discussion on the means that he employs to attain this objective. With theoretical backing, we have developed an Index of Entrepreneurial Dynamism (IED) giving weights to the different moves that the entrepreneur makes during his business journey. Strategies such as changes in product lines, markets and technology are gauged as very important (weighting of 4); while adaptations in terms of technology, raw materials used, upgradations in skill set are given a slightly lesser weight of 3. Use of formal market analysis, diversification in related products are considered moderately important (weight of 2) and being a first generation entrepreneur, employing managers and having plans to diversify are taken to be only slightly important business strategies (weight of 1). The maximum that an entrepreneur can score on this index is 53. A semi-structured questionnaire is employed to solicit the responses from the entrepreneurs on the various strategies that have been employed by them during the course of their business. Binary as well as graded responses are obtained, weighted and summed up to give the IED. This index was tested on about 150 tribal entrepreneurs in Mizoram, a state of India and was found to be highly effective in gauging their dynamism. This index has universal acceptability but is devoid of the socio-cultural context, which is very central to the success and performance of the entrepreneurs. We hypothesize that a society that respects risk taking takes failures in its stride, glorifies entrepreneurial role models, promotes merit and achievement is one that has a conducive socio- cultural environment for entrepreneurship. For obtaining an idea about the social acceptability, we are putting forth questions related to the social acceptability of business to another set of respondents from different walks of life- bureaucracy, academia, and other professional fields. Similar weighting technique is employed, and index is generated. This index is used for discounting the IED of the respondent entrepreneurs from that region/ society. This methodology is being tested for a sample of entrepreneurs from two very different socio- cultural milieus- a tribal society and a ‘mainstream’ society- with the hypothesis that the entrepreneurs in the tribal milieu might be showing a higher level of dynamism than their counterparts in other regions. An entrepreneur who scores high on IED and belongs to society and culture that holds entrepreneurship in high esteem, might not be in reality as dynamic as a person who shows similar dynamism in a relatively discouraging or even an outright hostile environment.

Keywords: index of entrepreneurial dynamism, India, social acceptability, tribal entrepreneurs

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Authors: E. Feizi Ashtiani, S. Jamshidi, M.H Niksokhan, A. Feizi Ashtiani

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Waste load allocation (WLA) policies may use multi-objective optimization methods to find the most appropriate and sustainable solutions. These usually intend to simultaneously minimize two criteria, total abatement costs (TC) and environmental violations (EV). If other criteria, such as inequity, need for minimization as well, it requires introducing more binary optimizations through different scenarios. In order to reduce the calculation steps, this study presents value index as an innovative decision making approach. Since the value index contains both the environmental violation and treatment costs, it can be maximized simultaneously with the equity index. It implies that the definition of different scenarios for environmental violations is no longer required. Furthermore, the solution is not necessarily the point with minimized total costs or environmental violations. This idea is testified for Haraz River, in north of Iran. Here, the dissolved oxygen (DO) level of river is simulated by Streeter-Phelps equation in MATLAB software. The WLA is determined for fish farms using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) in two scenarios. At first, the trade-off curves of TC-EV and TC-Inequity are plotted separately as the conventional approach. In the second, the Value-Equity curve is derived. The comparative results show that the solutions are in a similar range of inequity with lower total costs. This is due to the freedom of environmental violation attained in value index. As a result, the conventional approach can well be replaced by the value index particularly for problems optimizing these objectives. This reduces the process to achieve the best solutions and may find better classification for scenario definition. It is also concluded that decision makers are better to focus on value index and weighting its contents to find the most sustainable alternatives based on their requirements.

Keywords: waste load allocation (WLA), value index, multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), Haraz River, equity

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Authors: Yanto Santosa, Windi Sugiharti

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Fires occur annually in oil palm plantations. The objective of the study was to identify the impact of fire on bird diversity in oil palm plantations. Data of bird diversity were collected using the line transect method. Data were collected from February to March 2017. To estimate species richness, we used the Margalef index, to determine the evenness of species richness between site, we used an Evenness index, and to estimate the similarity of bird communities between different habitat, we used the Sørensen index. The result showed that the number of bird species and species richness in the post burned area was higher than those in unburned area. Different results were found for the Evenness Index, where the value was higher in unburned area that was in post burned area. These results indicate that fires did not decrease bird diversity as alleged by many parties whom stated that fires caused species extinction. Fire trigger the emerging of belowground plant and population of insects as a sources of food for the bird community. This result is consistent with several research findings in the United States and Australia that used controlled fires as one of regional management tools.

Keywords: bird, fire, index of similarity, oil palm, species diversity

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

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This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Efren Lopez Jimenez, Maria Isabel Cajero, J. Irving-Vasqueza

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The use and processing of digital images have opened up new opportunities for the resolution of problems of various kinds, such as the calculation of different vegetation indexes, among other things, differentiating healthy vegetation from humid vegetation. However, obtaining images from which these indexes are calculated is still the exclusive subject of active research. In the present work, we propose to obtain these images using a low cost embedded system (Raspberry Pi) and its processing, using a set of libraries of open code called OpenCV, in order to obtain the Normalized Red-Green Difference Index (NGRDI).

Keywords: Raspberry Pi, vegetation index, Normalized Red-Green Difference Index (NGRDI), OpenCV

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Authors: Rida Akzar, Risti Permani, Wahida , Wendy Umberger

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Adoption of farm innovations may increase farm productivity, and therefore improve market access and farm incomes. However, most studies that look at the level and drivers of innovation adoption only focus on a specific type of innovation. Farmers may consider multiple innovation options, and constraints such as budget, environment, scarcity of labour supply, and the cost of learning. There have been some studies proposing different methods to combine a broad variety of innovations into a single measurable index. However, little has been done to compare these methods and assess whether they provide similar information about farmer segmentation by their ‘innovativeness’. Using data from a recent survey of 220 dairy farm households in West Java, Indonesia, this study compares and considers different methods of deriving an innovation index, including expert-weighted innovation index; an index derived from the total number of adopted technologies; and an index of the extent of adoption of innovation taking into account both adoption and disadoption of multiple innovations. Second, it examines the distribution of different farming systems taking into account their innovativeness and farm characteristics. Results from this study will inform policy makers and stakeholders in the dairy industry on how to better design, target and deliver programs to improve and encourage farm innovation, and therefore improve farm productivity and the performance of the dairy industry in Indonesia.

Keywords: adoption, dairy, household survey, innovation index, Indonesia, multiple innovations dairy, West Java

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Authors: Ayedun Hassan, Ayadi Odunayo Peter

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The ancient city of Abeokuta has been supplied with pipe borne water since 1911, yet, a continuous increase in population and unplanned city expansion makes water a very precious and scarce commodity. The government reserved areas (GRA’s) are well planned, and public water supply is available; however, the sub-urban areas consist of scattered structures with individuals trying to source water by digging wells and boreholes. The geology of the city consists of basement rock which makes digging wells and boreholes very difficult. The present study was conducted to assess the risk arising from the consumption of toxic elements in the groundwater of Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria. Forty-five groundwater samples were collected from nine different areas of Abeokuta and analyzed for physicochemical parameters and toxic elements. The physicochemical parameters were determined using standard methods, while the toxic elements were determined using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometer (ICP/MS). Ninety-six percent (96%) of the water sample has pH < 6.5, and 11% has conductivity > 250 µSCm⁻¹ limits in drinking water as recommended by WHO. Seven percent (7%) of the samples have Pb concentration >10 µgL⁻¹ while 75% have Al concentration >200 µgL⁻¹ recommended by WHO. The order for risk of cancer from different area of Abeokuta are Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Funaab, Camp and Obantoko; As³⁺ > Cd²⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Ita Osin, Isale Igbein, Ake and Itoku; Cd²⁺ >As > Cr⁶⁺ > Pb²⁺ for Totoro; Pb²⁺ > Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Idiaba. The order of non-cancer hazard index (HI) calculated for groundwater of Abeokuta City are Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Mn²⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Ni²⁺ and were all greater than one, which implies susceptibility to other illnesses. The sources of these elements are the rock and inappropriate waste disposal method, which leached the elements into the groundwater. A combination of sources from food will accumulate these elements in the human body system. Treatment to remove Al and Pb is necessary, while the method of water distribution should be reviewed to ensure access to potable water by the residents.

Keywords: Abeokuta, groundwater, Nigeria, risk

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: Xuan Hua Huang, Shu Fen Wu, Yi Ting Huang, Pi Yueh Lee

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Background: In Taiwan, the Taiwan healthcare care Indicator Series regards the rate of hospital readmission as an important indicator of healthcare quality. Unplanned readmission not only effects patient’s condition but also increase healthcare utilization rate and healthcare costs. Purpose: The purpose of this study was explored the effects of adult unplanned readmission within 14 days of discharge at a regional teaching hospital in South Taiwan. Methods: The retrospectively review design was used. A total 495 participants of unplanned readmissions and 878 of non-readmissions within 14 days recruited from a regional teaching hospital in Southern Taiwan. The instruments used included the Charlson Comorbidity Index, and demographic characteristics, and disease-related variables. Statistical analyses were performed with SPSS version 22.0. The descriptive statistics were used (means, standard deviations, and percentage) and the inferential statistics were used T-test, Chi-square test and Logistic regression. Results: The unplanned readmissions within 14 days rate was 36%. The majorities were 268 males (54.1%), aged >65 were 318 (64.2%), and mean age was 68.8±14.65 years (23-98years). The mean score for the comorbidities was 3.77±2.73. The top three diagnosed of the readmission were digestive diseases (32.7%), respiratory diseases (15.2%), and genitourinary diseases (10.5%). There were significant relationships among the gender, age, marriage, comorbidity status, and discharge planning services (χ2: 3.816-16.474, p: 0.051~0.000). Logistic regression analysis showed that old age (OR = 1.012, 95% CI: 1.003, 1.021), had the multi-morbidity (OR = 0.712~4.040, 95% CI: 0.559~8.522), had been consult with discharge planning services (OR = 1.696, 95% CI: 1.105, 2.061) have a higher risk of readmission. Conclusions: This study finds that multi-morbidity was independent risk factor for unplanned readmissions at 14 days, recommended that the interventional treatment of the medical team be provided to provide integrated care for multi-morbidity to improve the patient's self-care ability and reduce the 14-day unplanned readmission rate.

Keywords: unplanned readmission, comorbidities, Charlson comorbidity index, logistic regression

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Authors: Luisa Carrer, Lorenzo De Masi

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In this paper, we exploit the massive amount of information from Facebook to build a measure of gender attitudes in Italy at a previously impossible resolution—the municipal level. We construct our index via a machine learning method to replicate a benchmark region-level measure. Interestingly, we find that most of the variation in our Gender Norms Index (GNI) is across towns within narrowly defined geographical areas rather than across regions or provinces. In a second step, we show how this local variation in norms can be leveraged for identification purposes. In particular, we use our index to investigate whether these differences in norms carry over to the policy activity of politicians elected in the Italian Parliament. We document that females are more likely to sit in parliamentary committees focused on gender-sensitive matters, labor, and social issues, but not if they come from a relatively conservative town. These effects are robust to conditioning the legislative term and electoral district, suggesting the importance of social norms in shaping legislators’ policy activity.

Keywords: gender equality, gender norms index, Facebook, machine learning, politics

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: early warning system, knowledge management, market prediction, topic modeling.

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

Abstract:

We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

Abstract:

In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

Abstract:

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: Seung Hun Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee

Abstract:

Objectives: To investigate associations between degrees of obesity using correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, lipids, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area using computed tomographic images were measured in 113 obese female without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors were analyzed in obese subgroups defined using sequential obesity indices. Results: Mean BMI and WC were 29.6 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm. BMI showed significant correlations with all five cardiometabolic risk factors until the BMI cut-off point reached 27 kg/m2, but when it exceeded 30 kg/m2, correlations no longer existed. WC was significantly correlated with all five cardiometabolic risk factors up to a value of 85 cm, but when WC exceeded 90 cm, correlations no longer existed. Conclusions: Our data suggest that moderate weight-loss goals may not be enough to ameliorate cardiometabolic markers in severely obese patients. Therefore, individualized weight-loss goals should be recommended to such patients to improve health benefits.

Keywords: correlation, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, obesity

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Authors: B. Sudhakara Reddy

Abstract:

This study provides a snapshot of the sustainability of selected Indian cities by employing 70 indicators in four dimensions to develop an overall city sustainability index. In recent years, the concept of ‘urban sustainability’ has become prominent due to its complexity. Urban areas propel growth and at the same time poses a lot of ecological, social and infrastructural problems and risks. In case of developing countries, the high population density of and the continuous in-migration run the highest risk in natural and man-made disasters. These issues combined with the inability of policy makers in providing basic services makes the cities unsustainable. To assess whether any given policy is moving towards or against urban sustainability it is necessary to consider the relationships among its various dimensions. Hence, in recent years, while preparing the sustainability index, an integral approach involving indicators of different dimensions such as ‘economic’, ‘environmental’ and 'social' is being used. It is also important for urban planners, social analysts and other related institutions to identify and understand the relationships in this complex system. The objective of the paper is to develop a city performance index (CPI) to measure and evaluate the urban regions in terms of sustainable performances. The objectives include: i) Objective assessment of a city’s performance, ii) setting achievable goals iii) prioritise relevant indicators for improvement, iv) learning from leaders, iv) assessment of the effectiveness of programmes that results in achieving high indicator values, v) Strengthening of stakeholder participation. Using the benchmark approach, a conceptual framework is developed for evaluating 25 Indian cities. We develop City Sustainability index (CSI) in order to rank cities according to their level of sustainability. The CSI is composed of four dimensions: Economic, Environment, Social, and Institutional. Each dimension is further composed of multiple indicators: (1) Economic that considers growth, access to electricity, and telephone availability; (2) environmental that includes waste water treatment, carbon emissions, (3) social that includes, equity, infant mortality, and 4) institutional that includes, voting share of population, urban regeneration policies. The CSI, consisting of four dimensions disaggregate into 12 categories and ultimately into 70 indicators. The data are obtained from public and non-governmental organizations, and also from city officials and experts. By ranking a sample of diverse cities on a set of specific dimensions the study can serve as a baseline of current conditions and a marker for referencing future results. The benchmarks and indices presented in the study provide a unique resource for the government and the city authorities to learn about the positive and negative attributes of a city and prepare plans for a sustainable urban development. As a result of our conceptual framework, the set of criteria we suggest is somewhat different to any already in the literature. The scope of our analysis is intended to be broad. Although illustrated with specific examples, it should be apparent that the principles identified are relevant to any monitoring that is used to inform decisions involving decision variables. These indicators are policy-relevant and, hence they are useful tool for decision-makers and researchers.

Keywords: benchmark, city, indicator, performance, sustainability

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