Search results for: climate change indicators

Authors: Swati Rajput

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Wellbeing is a multifaceted concept. Its definition has evolved to become more holistic over the years. The paper attempts to build up the understanding of the concept of wellbeing and marks the trajectory of its conceptual evolution. The paper will also elaborate and analyse various indicators of socio-economic wellbeing in India at state level. Ranking method has been applied to assess the situation of each state in context to the variable selected and wellbeing as a whole. Maps have been used to depict and illustrate the same. The data shows that the socio-economic wellbeing level is higher in states of Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Uttrakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, and Lakshadweep. The level of wellbeing is very lower in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telengana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and Tripura. Environment plays an important role in maintaining health. Environment and health are important indicators of wellbeing. The paper would further analyse some indicators of environment and health and find the change in the result of wellbeing levels of different states.

Keywords: socio economic factors, wellbeing index, health, mapping

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Authors: Thu Le Thi Bao

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Industrial parks have both active roles in promoting economic development and source of appearance of boarding houses and slums in the adjacent area, lacking infrastructure, causing many social evils. The context of the recent pandemic and climate change on a global scale pose issues that need to be resolved for sustainable development. Ho Chi Minh City aims to develop housing for migrant workers to stabilize human resources and, at the same time, solve problems of social evils caused by poor living conditions. The paper focuses on the content of renovating existing industrial parks and worker accommodation in Ho Chi Minh City to propose appropriate models, contributing to the goal of urban embellishment and solutions for industrial parks to adapt to abnormal impact conditions such as pandemics, climate change, crises.

Keywords: industrial park, social housing, accommodation, distribution center

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Authors: Yashasvi Thakur, Vikas K. Sharma

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The fragile Himalayan ecosystems are sensitive to environmental stresses, including direct and indirect impacts of climate stresses. A total of 297 naturalized alien plant species belonging to 65 families in the IHR have already been reported. Of the total 297 naturalized alien plant species in IHR, the maximum species occur in Himachal Pradesh (232; 78.1%), followed by Jammu & Kashmir (192; 64.6%) and Uttarakhand (181; 60.90%). The present study reports the spread of some invasive and existing weed species like Ageratum conyzoides, Bidens pilosa, Chromolaena odorata, Lantana camara, Brossnetia papyrifera, Oxalis corniculata, Galinsoga parviflora, Panicum maximum at an extent that they are not only invading the agricultural fields but are also replacing the native plant species and degrading the existing grassland quality. Moreover, the degradation of grassland has led to the dry fodder shortage for livestock in the lower Shivalik ranges of the state of Himachal Pradesh and has also encouraged the use of herbicides at an extensive scale. This article provides a mapping of the current spread of some of these species at the block level to allow the development of appropriate management strategies and policy planning for addressing issues pertaining to plant invasion, agricultural fields, and grasslands across the IHR states.

Keywords: climate change, invasive alien species, agriculture, grassland, IHR

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Authors: Artem Sedov, Aigerim Uyzbayeva, Valeriya Tyo

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The presented article is showing results of dynamic modeling with Mathlab software of optimal automatic room climate control system for two experimental houses in Astana, one of which has circle plan and the other one has square plan. These results are showing that building geometry doesn't influence on climate system PID-controls configuring. This confirms theoretical implication that optimal automatic climate control system parameters configuring should depend on building's internal space volume, envelope heat transfer, number of people inside, supply ventilation air flow and outdoor temperature.

Keywords: climate control system, climate physics, dome-like building, mathematical modeling

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Authors: Amidu Owolabi Ayeni

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Studies have shown that spatio-temporal distribution and variability of climatic variables, urban land use, and population have had substantial impact on water supply. It is based on these facts that the impacts of climate, urbanization, and population on water supply in Lagos State Nigeria remain the focus of this study. Population and water production data on Lagos State between 1963 and 2006 were collected, and used for time series and projection analyses. Multi-temporal land-sat images of 1975, 1995 and NigeriaSat-1 imagery of 2007 were used for land use change analysis. The population of Lagos State increased by about 557.1% between 1963 and 2006, correspondingly, safe water supply increased by 554%. Currently, 60% of domestic water use in urban areas of Lagos State is from groundwater while 75% of rural water is from unsafe surface water. Between 1975 and 2007, urban land use increased by about 235.9%. The 46years climatic records revealed that temperature and evaporation decreased slightly while rainfall and Relatively Humidity (RH) decreased consistently. Based on these trends, the Lagos State population and required water are expected to increase to about 19.8millions and 2418.9ML/D respectively by the year 2026. Rainfall is likely to decrease by -6.68mm while temperature will increase by 0.950C by 2026. Urban land use is expected to increase by 20% with expectation of serious congestion in the suburb areas. With these results, over 50% of the urban inhabitants will be highly water poor in future if the trends continue unabated.

Keywords: challenges, climate change, urbanization, water supply

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zenoozian

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This paper studies the susceptibility of local settlements in the gulf of Oman mangrove forest zone to flooding and progressesconsiderate of acuities and reactions to historical and present coastal flooding.it is indirect thaterosionsproduced in coastal zones by the change of mangrove undergrowthsubsequent from the enduring influence of persons since the late 19th century. Confronted with the increasing impact of climate change on climate ambitiousalarms such as flooding and biodiversity damage, handling the relationship between mangroves and their atmosphere has become authoritative for their defense. Coastal flood dangers are increasing quickly. We offer high resolution approximations of the financial value of mangroves forests for flood risk discount. We progress a probabilistic, process-based estimate of the properties of mangroves on avoidanceharms to people and property. More significantly, it also establishes how the incessantsqualor of this significant ecosystem has the potential to unfavorably influence the future cyclone persuadeddangers in the area.

Keywords: mangrove forest, coastal, flood, erosion

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Authors: Dan Cristian Popescu

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The new territorial identities and global dynamics have determined a change of policies of economics, social and cultural development from a vertical to a horizontal approach, which is based on cooperation networks between institutional actors, economic operators or civil society representatives. The European integration has not only generated a different patterns of competitiveness, economic growth, concentration of attractive potential, but also disparities among regions of this country, or even in the countryside within a region. To a better understanding of the dynamics of regional development and the impact of this concept on Romania, I chose as a case study the region Bucharest-Ilfov which is analyzed on the basis of predetermined indicators and of the impact of European programs.

Keywords: regional competition, regional development, rural, urban

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Authors: Emiru Birhane, Tesfay Gidey, Haftu Abrha, Abrha Brhan, Amanuel Zenebe, Girmay Gebresamuel, Florent Noulèkoun

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Dracaena ombet and Dobera glabra are two of the most rare and endangered tree species in dryland areas. Unfortunately, their sustainability is being compromised by different anthropogenic and natural factors. However, the impacts of ongoing land use and climate change on the population structure and distribution of the species are less explored. This study was carried out in the grazing lands and hillside areas of the Desa'a dry Afromontane forest, northern Ethiopia, to characterize the population structure of the species and predict the impact of climate change on their potential distributions. In each land-use type, abundance, diameter at breast height, and height of the trees were collected using 70 sampling plots distributed over seven transects spaced one km apart. The geographic coordinates of each individual tree were also recorded. The results showed that the species populations were characterized by low abundance and unstable population structure. The latter was evinced by a lack of seedlings and mature trees. The study also revealed that the total abundance and dendrometric traits of the trees were significantly different between the two land uses. The hillside areas had a denser abundance of bigger and taller trees than the grazing lands. Climate change predictions using the MaxEnt model highlighted that future temperature increases coupled with reduced precipitation would lead to significant reductions in the suitable habitats of the species in northern Ethiopia. The species' suitable habitats were predicted to decline by 48–83% for D. ombet and 35–87% for D. glabra. Hence, to sustain the species populations, different strategies should be adopted, namely the introduction of alternative livelihoods (e.g., gathering NTFP) to reduce the overexploitation of the species for subsistence income and the protection of the current habitats that will remain suitable in the future using community-based exclosures. Additionally, the preservation of the species' seeds in gene banks is crucial to ensure their long-term conservation.

Keywords: grazing lands, hillside areas, land-use change, MaxEnt, range limitation, rare and endangered tree species

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Authors: F. Z. Aliyat, M. El Guilli, L. Nassiri, J. Ibijbijen

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Climate change is becoming a crucial factor that can significantly impact all ecosystems. It has a negative impact on the environment in many parts of the planet. Agriculture is the main sector affected by climate change. Particularly, the salinity of agricultural soils is among the problems caused by climate change. The use of phosphate solubilizing bacteria (PSB) as a biofertilizer requires previous research on their tolerance to abiotic stress, specifically saline stress tolerance, before the formation of biofertilizers. In this context, the main goal of this research was to assess the salinity tolerance of four strains: Serratia rubidaea strain JCM1240, Enterobacter bugandensis strain 247BMC, Pantoea agglomerans strain ATCC 27155, Pseudomonas brassicacearum subsp. Neoaurantiaca strain CIP109457, which was isolated from solid phosphate sludge. Additionally, their capacity to solubilize potassium and zinc, as well as their effect on Wheat (Triticum Durum 'Karim') germination. The four PSB strains were tested for their ability to solubilize phosphate in NBRIP medium with tricalcium phosphate (TCP) as the sole source of phosphorus under salt stress. Five concentrations of NaCl were used (0%, 0.5%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%). Their phosphate solubilizing activity was estimated by the vanadate-molybdate method. The potassium and zinc solubilization has been tested qualitatively and separately on solid media with mica and zinc oxide as the only sources of potassium and zinc, respectively. The result showed that the solubilization decreases with the increase in the concentration of NaCl; all the strains solubilize the TCP even with 5% NaCl, with a significant difference among the four strains. The Serratia rubidaea strain was the most tolerant strain. In addition, the four strains solubilize the potassium and the zinc. The Serratia rubidaea strain was the most efficient. Therefore, biofertilization with PSB salt-tolerant strains could be a climate-change-preparedness strategy for agriculture in salt soil.

Keywords: bioavailability of mineral nutrients, phosphate solid sludge; phosphate solubilization, potassium solubilization, salt stress, zinc solubilization.

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Authors: Jaqueline Nichi, Leila Da Costa Ferreira, Fabiana Barbi Seleguim, Gabriela Marques Di Giulio, Mariana Barbieri

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The transport sector is responsible for approximately 55% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, in addition to pollution and other negative externalities, such as road accidents and congestion, that impact the routine of those who live in large cities. The objective of this article is to discuss the application and use of distinct mobility technologies such as climate adaptation and mitigation measures in the context of smart cities in the Global South. The documentary analysis is associated with 22 semi structured interviews with managers who work with mobility technologies in the public and private sectors and in civil society organizations to explore solutions in multilevel governance for smart and low-carbon mobility based on the case study from the city of São Paulo, Brazil. The hypothesis that innovation and technology to mitigate and adapt to climate impacts are not yet sufficient to make mobility more sustainable has been confirmed. The results indicate four relevant aspects for advancing a climate agenda in smart cities: integrated planning, coproduction of knowledge, experiments in governance, and new means of financing to guarantee the sustainable sociotechnical transition of the sector.

Keywords: urban mobility, climate change, smart cities, multilevel governance

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Authors: Wen-Juinn Chen, Yi-Phei Chou, Jou-Han Wang

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Tainan coast is suffering from beach erosion, wave overtopping, and lowland flooding; though most of the shoreline has been protected by seawalls, they still threatened by sea level rise. For coastal resources developing, coastal land utilization, and to draft an appropriate mitigate strategy. Firstly; we must assess the impact of beach erosion under a different scenario of climate change. Here, we have used the meteorological data since 1898 to 2012 to prove that the Tainan area did suffer the impact of climate change. The result shows the temperature has been raised to about 1.7 degrees since 1989. Also, we analyzed the tidal data near the Tainan coast (Anpin site and Junjunn site), it shows sea level rising with a rate about 4.1~4.8 mm/year, this phenomenon will have serious impacts on Tainan coastal area, especially it will worsen coastal erosion. So we have used Bruun rule to calculate the shoreline retreated rate at every two decade period since 2012. Wave data and bottom sand diameter D50 were used to calculate the closure depth that will be used in Bruun formula and the active length of the profile is computed by the beach slope and Dean's equilibrium concept. After analysis, we found that in 2020, the shoreline will be retreated about 3.0 to 12 meters. The maximum retreat is happening at Chigu coast. In 2060, average shoreline retreated distance is 22m, but at Chigu and Tsenwen, shoreline may be backward retreat about 70m and will be reached about 130m at 2100, this will cause a lot of coastal land loss to the sea, protect and mitigate project must be quickly performed.

Keywords: sea level rise, shoreline, coastal erosion, climate change

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Authors: Temple Probyne Abali

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Port Harcourt, Rivers State in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria is bedeviled by the phenomenon of climatechange, posing threat to food security and livelihood. This study examined a 4 decadel (1980-2020) trend of climate change as well as its socio-economic impact on food security in the region. Furthermore, to achieve sustainable food security and livelihood amidst the phenomenon, the study adopted the World Bank Assisted Third National Fadama Development Programme approach. The data source for climate change involved secondary data from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET). Consequently, the results for climate change over the 4decade period were displayed in tables, charts and maps for the expected changes. Data sources on socio-economic impact of food security and livelihood were acquired through questionnairedesign. A purposive random sampling technique was used in selecting 5 coastal communities inthe region known for viable economic potentials for agricultural development and the resultswere analyzed using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) technique of the World Bank for needs assessment wasadopted in selecting 5 agricultural sub-project proposals/activities based on groups’ commoneconomic interest from a total of 1,000 farmers each drawn from the 5 communities of differentage groups including men, women, youths and the vulnerable. Based on the farmers’ sub-projectinterests, the various groups’ Strength, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT), Problem Listing Matrix, Skill Gap Analysis as well as EIAson their sub-project proposals/activities were analyzed with substantialMonitoring and Evaluation (M & E), using the Specific, Measurable, Attribute, Reliable and Time bound (SMART)approach. Based on the findings from the PRA technique, the farmers recorded considerableincreaseinincomeofover200%withinthe5yearprojectplan(2008-2013).Thestudyrecommends capacity building and advisory services on this PRA innovation. By so doing, there would be a sustainable increase in agricultural production and assured food security in an environmental friendly manner, in line with the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).

Keywords: climate change, food security, fadama, world bank, agriculture, sdgs

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Authors: Maciej Zaręba, Sławomir Lasota

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Knowing the degree of dependencies between the sets of input signals and selected sets of indicators that measure a production system's effectiveness is of great importance in the industry. This paper introduces the SELM method that enables the selection of sets of input signals, which affects the most the selected subset of indicators that measures the effectiveness of a production system. For defined set of output indicators, the method quantifies the impact of input signals that are gathered in the continuous monitoring production system.

Keywords: manufacturing operation management, signal relationship, continuous monitoring, production systems

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Authors: Baffoe Kingsley

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The consequence of the migration of young people from rural farming communities in the global south to the global north is a well-known phenomenon. While climate change and its accompanying socio-economic structures continue to be the driver, what is not really known is how left behinds are compelled to convert lands meant for the production of traditional staples such as cereals, vegetables, and tubers to the production of export-driven cashew plantations due to youth migration. The consequence of such migration on the development of Ghana and its food security is multidimensional. Using an ethnographic research design, the study revealed that the majority of farmers in the area are now aged, and farm labor has become scarce, which has impeded the cultivation of traditional staples for the population. It has also been established that in the absence of farm labor, most farmers have reduced farm sizes for the production of staples and increased the production of cashews. The practice has, in tend, resulted in a scarcity of land for the cultivation of staples. The study recommends further inquiry into how the effects of migration and cashew production as diversification in agriculture influence national development in Ghana.

Keywords: staple food crops, cashew plantations, climate change, migration

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Authors: Nadjib Drouiche

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Water resources in Algeria are scarce, often low quality, fragile, and unevenly distributed in space and time. The pressure on water resources can be associated with industrial development, a steady population growth, and demanding land irrigation measures. These conditions createa tense competitionfor managing waterresourcesand sharing thembetween agricultural development, drinking water supply, industrial activities, etc. Moreover, the impact of climate change has placed in the forefront national policies focused on the water-energy-food nexus (WEF). In this context, desalination membrane technologies could play an increasing rolefor supporting segments of the Algerian economy that are heavily water-dependent. By implementing water reuse and desalination strategies together in the agricultural sector, there is an opportunity to expand the access to healthy food and clean water, thereby keeping the WEF nexus effects under control.

Keywords: desalination, mitigation, climate change, sustainable development goals

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Authors: Panwad Wongthong, Thanan Apivantanaporn, Sutthiwan Amattayakul

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Nature-based tourism is one of the fastest growing industries that can bring in economic benefits, improve quality of life and promote conservation of biodiversity and habitats. As tourism develops, substantial socio-economic and environmental costs become more explicit. Particularly in island destinations, the dynamic system and geographical limitations makes the intensity of tourism development and severity of the negative environmental impacts greater. The current contribution of the tourism sector to global climate change is established at approximately 5% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In all scenarios, tourism is anticipated to grow substantially and to account for an increasingly large share of global greenhouse gas emissions. This has prompted an urgent call for more sustainable alternatives. This study selected a small island of Koh Mak in Thailand as a case study because of its reputation of being laid back, family oriented and rich in biodiversity. Importantly, it is a test platform for low carbon tourism development project supported by the Designated Areas for Sustainable Tourism Administration (DASTA) in collaboration with the Institute for Small and Medium Enterprises Development (ISMED). The study explores strategies for low carbon tourism management and assesses challenges and opportunities for Koh Mak to become a low carbon tourism destination. The goal is to identify suitable management approaches applicable for Koh Mak which may then be adapted to other small islands in Thailand and the region. Interventions/initiatives to increase energy efficiency in hotels and resorts; cut carbon emissions; reduce impacts on the environment; and promote conservation will be analyzed. Ways toward long-term sustainability of climate-friendly tourism will be recommended. Recognizing the importance of multi-stakeholder involvement in the tourism sector, findings from this study can reward Koh Mak tourism industry with a triple-win: cost savings and compliance with higher standards/markets; less waste, air emissions and effluents; and better capabilities of change, motivation of business owners, staff, tourists as well as residents. The consideration of climate change issues in the planning and implementation of tourism development is of great significance to protect the tourism sector from negative impacts.

Keywords: climate change, CO2 emissions, low carbon tourism, sustainable tourism management

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Authors: Adriana Martínez-Arias, John Josephraj Selvaraj, Luis Octavio González-Salcedo

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In the Colombian Pacific, Dorado fish (Coryphaena hippurus L.) fisheries is of great commercial interest. However, its habitat and fisheries may be affected by climatic change especially by the actual increase in sea surface temperature. Hence, it is of interest to study the dynamics of these species fishing zones. In this study, we developed Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models to predict Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE) as an indicator of species abundance. The model was based on four oceanographic variables (Chlorophyll a, Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Level Anomaly and Bathymetry) derived from satellite data. CPUE datasets for model training and cross-validation were obtained from logbooks of commercial fishing vessel. Sea surface Temperature for Colombian Pacific were projected under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CPUE maps were created. Our results indicated that an increase in sea surface temperature reduces the potential fishing zones of this species in the Colombian Pacific. We conclude that ANN is a reliable tool for simulation of climate change effects on the potential fishing zones. This research opens a future agenda for other species that have been affected by climate change.

Keywords: climatic change, artificial neural networks, dorado fish, CPUE

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Authors: Kazi Ashief Mahmood

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Geographically Bangladesh is located in a natural hazard prone area. Compared to the rest of the areas, the coastal sub-districts are more vulnerable to climate variability and change. However, the hydro-geophysical reality of the sub-districts predominantly determines their contexts of vulnerability and its nature differs accordingly. Intriguingly enough, the poorest of the areas appear to be the most cornered among the different vulnerable sectors. Among of these deprived segments; however, the women, the persons with disability and the minorities are generally more vulnerable and they face a high risk of marginalized. The most threatening hydro-geophysical climate vulnerability have been created by prolonged dry season as observed at Koyra Upazilla in Khulna districts and Shyamnagar in Satkhira districts. The prolonged dry season creates severe surface salinity by which farmers cannot produce or use their to cultivate. The absence of land-based production and employment in the area has led to severe food insecurity. As a result, farmers tend to change their livelihood option and many of them are forced to migrate to the other areas of the country in search of livelihood. Besides salinity intrusion, water logging, drought and different climate change induced hazards are endangering safe drinking water sources and putting small-holders out of agriculture-based livelihoods in the Koyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla. A sizeable fraction of small-holders are still trying to hold on to their small scale shrimp production, despite being under pressure to sell off their cultivating lands to their influential shrimp merchants. While their desperate effort to take advantage of the increasing salinity is somewhat successful, their families still face a greater risk of health hazards owing to the lack of safe drinking water. Unless the issues of salinity in drinking water cannot be redressed, the state of the affected people will be in great jeopardy. Most of the inhabitants of oKyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla are living under the poverty line. Thus, poverty is a major factor that intensifies the vulnerability caused by hydro-geophysical climatic conditions. The government and different NGOs are trying to improve the present scenario by implementing different disaster risk reduction projects along with poverty reduction for community empowerment.

Keywords: assessment, climate change, climate induced hazards, coastal zone

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Authors: Elnur Abbasov

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Energy security and climate change comprise some of the most important concerns facing humankind today and probably in the future if they are not addressed appropriately. In order to stabilize the global climate, there is the need for the world to lessen its use of fossil energy, which requires enhancement of current energy efficiency as well as the development of novel energy sources, such as energy obtained from renewable sources. There is no doubt that the steady transition towards a solar-based economy is likely to result in the development of completely new sectors, behaviours, and jobs that are pro-environmental. Azerbaijan Republic as the largest nation state in the South Caucasus Region has the potential for using and developing the renewable sources of energy in order to support the environmental challenge resolution associated with the climate change, improving the environmental situation in the country. Solar PV comprises one of the direct usages of solar energy. In this paper, sustainable PV usage scenario in residential houses was introduced to reduce negative environmental effects of land use, water consumption, air pollution etc. It was recommended by an author that, PV systems can be part of function and design of residential building components: such as roofs, walls, windows.

Keywords: energy efficiency, environmentally friendly, photovoltaic engineering, sustainable energy usage scenario

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Authors: Shaidatul Azdawiyah Abdul Talib, Wan Mohd Razi Idris, Liew Ju Neng, Tukimat Lihan, Muhammad Zamir Abdul Rasid

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Climate change has received great attention worldwide due to the impact of weather causing extreme events. Rainfall and temperature are crucial weather components associated with climate change. In Malaysia, increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall distribution patterns lead to drought and flood events involving agricultural areas, especially rice fields. Muda Agricultural Development Authority (MADA) is the largest rice growing area among the 10 granary areas in Malaysia and has faced floods and droughts in the past due to changing climate. Changes in rainfall and temperature patter affect rice yield. Therefore, trend analysis is important to identify changes in temperature and rainfall patterns as it gives an initial overview for further analysis. Six locations across the MADA area were selected based on the availability of meteorological station (MetMalaysia) data. Historical data (1991 to 2020) collected from MetMalaysia and future climate projection by multi-model ensemble of climate model from CMIP5 (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) have been analyzed using Mann-Kendall test to detect the time series trend, together with standardized precipitation anomaly, rainfall anomaly index, precipitation concentration index and temperature anomaly. Future projection data were analyzed based on 3 different periods; early century (2020 – 2046), middle century (2047 – 2073) and late-century (2074 – 2099). Results indicate that the MADA area does encounter extremely wet and dry conditions, leading to drought and flood events in the past. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test discovered a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) in annual rainfall (z = 0.40; s = 15.12) and temperature (z = 0.61; s = 0.04) during the historical period. Similarly, for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) was found for rainfall (RCP 4.5: z = 0.15; s = 2.55; RCP 8.5: z = 0.41; s = 8.05;) and temperature (RCP 4.5: z = 0.84; s = 0.02; RCP 8.5: z = 0.94; s = 0.05). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.6 °C in early century, 2.0 °C in the middle century and 2.4 °C in the late century. In contrast, under RCP 8.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.8 °C in the early century, 3.1 °C in the middle century and 4.3 °C in late century. Drought is projected to occur in 2038 and 2043 (early century); 2052 and 2069 (middle century); and 2095, 2097 to 2099 (late century) under RCP 4.5 scenario. As for RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is projected to occur in 2021, 2031 and 2034 (early century); and 2069 (middle century). No drought is projected to occur in the late century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Thus, this information can be used for the analysis of the impact of climate change scenarios on rice growth and yield besides other crops found in MADA area. Additionally, this study, it would be helpful for researchers and decision-makers in developing applicable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change.

Keywords: climate projection, drought, flood, rainfall, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, temperature

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Authors: Atefeh Kalantari

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The increase in population and energy consumption has caused environmental crises such as the energy crisis, increased pollution, and climate change, all of which have resulted in a decline in the quality of life, especially in urban environments. Iran is one of the developing countries which faces several challenges concerning energy use and environmental sustainability such as air pollution, climate change, and energy security. On the other hand, due to its favorable geographic characteristics, Iran has diverse and accessible renewable sources, which provide appropriate substitutes to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Sustainable development programs and post-carbon cities rely on implementing energy policies in different sectors of society, particularly, the built environment sector is one of the main ones responsible for energy consumption and carbon emissions for cities. Because of this, several advancements and programs are being implemented to promote energy efficiency for urban planning, and city experts, like others, are looking for solutions to deal with these problems. Among the solutions provided for this purpose, low-carbon design can be mentioned. Among the different scales, the neighborhood can be mentioned as a suitable scale for applying the principles and solutions of low-carbon urban design; Because the neighborhood as a "building unit of the city" includes elements and flows that all affect the number of CO2 emissions. The article aims to provide criteria for designing a low-carbon and carbon-free neighborhood through descriptive methods and secondary data analysis. The ultimate goal is to promote energy efficiency and create a more resilient and livable environment for local residents.

Keywords: climate change, low-carbon urban design, carbon-free neighborhood, resilience

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Authors: Mohammad Z. Ansari, Lisa Brodie, Marilyn Goh

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Change facilitators are individuals who utilize change philosophy to make a positive change to organizations. The application of change facilitators can be seen in various change models; Lewin, Lippitt, etc. The facilitators within numerous change models are considered as internal/external consultants. Whilst most of the scholarly paper considers change facilitation as a consensus attempt to improve organization, there is a lack of a framework that develops both the organization and the change facilitator creating a self-sustaining change environment. This research paper introduces the development of the framework for change Leaders, Planners, and Executers (LPE), aiming at various organizational levels (Process, Departmental, and Organisational). The LPE framework is derived by exploring interrelated characteristics between facilitator(s) and the organization through qualitative research for understanding change management techniques and facilitator(s) behavioral aspect from existing Change Management models and Organisation behavior works of literature. The introduced framework assists in highlighting and identify the most appropriate change team to successfully deliver the change initiative within any organization (s).

Keywords: change initiative, LPE framework, change facilitator(s), sustainable change

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Authors: Xiping Wang，Shuran Yao, Liqin Dai

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Many studies report the winter is getting warmer and the minimum air temperature is obviously rising as the important climate warming evidences. The exacerbated air temperature fluctuation tending to bring more severe weather variation is another important consequence of recent climate change which induced more disasters to crop growth in quite a certain regions. Hebei Province is an important winter wheat growing province in North of China that recently endures more winter freezing injury influencing the local winter wheat crop management. A winter wheat freezing injury assessment Bayesian Network framework was established for the objectives of estimating, assessing and predicting winter wheat freezing disasters in Hebei Province. In this framework, the freezing disasters was classified as three severity degrees (SI) among all the three types of freezing, i.e., freezing caused by severe cold in anytime in the winter, long extremely cold duration in the winter and freeze-after-thaw in early season after winter. The factors influencing winter wheat freezing SI include time of freezing occurrence, growth status of seedlings, soil moisture, winter wheat variety, the longitude of target region and, the most variable climate factors. The climate factors included in this framework are daily mean and range of air temperature, extreme minimum temperature and number of days during a severe cold weather process, the number of days with the temperature lower than the critical temperature values, accumulated negative temperature in a potential freezing event. The Bayesian Network model was evaluated using actual weather data and crop records at selected sites in Hebei Province using real data. With the multi-stage influences from the various factors, the forecast and assessment of the event-based target variables, freezing injury occurrence and its damage to winter wheat production, were shown better scoped by Bayesian Network model.

Keywords: bayesian networks, climatic change, freezing Injury, winter wheat

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Authors: Rohana Pandukabhya Mahaliyanaarachchi, Maheshwari Sangeetha Elapatha, Mohamed Esham, Banagala Chathurika Maduwanthi

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The global climate change has become one of the imperative issues for the smallholder dominated agricultural sector and nature based tourism sector in Sri Lanka. Thus addressing this issue is notably important. The main objective of this study was to investigate the potential of agri-tourism as a sustainable adaptation option to mitigate some of the negative impacts of climate change in small scale agricultural sector in Sri Lanka. The study was carried out in two different climatic zones in Sri Lanka namely Low Country Dry Zone and Up Country Wet Zone. A case study strategy followed by structured and unstructured interviewers through cross-sectional surveys were adapted to collect data. The study revealed that there had been a significant change in the climate in regard to the rainfall patterns in both climatic zones resulting unexpected rains during months and longer drought periods. This results the damages of agricultural production, low yields and subsequently low income. However, to mitigate these adverse effects, farmers have mainly focused on using strategies related to the crops and farming patterns rather than diversifying their business by adopting other entrepreneurial activities like agri-tourism. One of the major precursor for this was due to lesser awareness on the concept of agri-tourism within the farming community. The study revealed that the respondents of both climatic zones do have willingness and potential to adopt agri-tourism. One key important factor identified was that farming or agriculture was the main livelihood of the respondents, which is one of the vital precursor needed to start up an agri-tourism enterprise. Most of the farmers in the Up Country Wet Zone had an inclination to start a farm guest house or a farm home stay whereas the farmers in the Low Country Dry Zone wish to operate farm guest house, farm home stay or farm restaurant. They also have an interest to open up a road side farm product stall to facilitate the direct sales of the farm. Majority of the farmers in both climatic zones showed an interest to initiate an agri-tourism business as a complementary enterprise where they wished to give an equal share to both farming and agri-tourism. Thus this revealed that the farmers have identified agri-tourism as a vital concept and have given the equal importance as given to farming. This shows that most of the farmers have understood agri-tourism as an alternative income source that can mitigate the adverse effects of climatic change. This study emphasizes that agri-tourism as an alternative income source that can mitigate the adverse effects of climatic change on small scale agriculture sector.

Keywords: adaptation, agri-tourism, climate change, small scale agriculture

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Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka

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The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.

Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff

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Authors: Wei Ji

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This study was conducted in the Kansas City metropolitan area of the United States, which has experienced significant urban sprawling in recent decades. The remote sensing of land cover changes in this area spanned over four decades from 1972 through 2010. The project was implemented in two stages: the first stage focused on detection of long-term trends of urban land cover change, while the second one examined how to detect the coupled effects of human impact and climate change on urban landscapes. For the first-stage study, six Landsat images were used with a time interval of about five years for the period from 1972 through 2001. Four major land cover types, built-up land, forestland, non-forest vegetation land, and surface water, were mapped using supervised image classification techniques. The study found that over the three decades the built-up lands in the study area were more than doubled, which was mainly at the expense of non-forest vegetation lands. Surprisingly and interestingly, the area also saw a significant gain in surface water coverage. This observation raised questions: How have human activities and precipitation variation jointly impacted surface water cover during recent decades? How can we detect such coupled impacts through remote sensing analysis? These questions led to the second stage of the study, in which we designed and developed approaches to detecting fine-scale surface waters and analyzing coupled effects of human impact and precipitation variation on the waters. To effectively detect urban landscape changes that might be jointly shaped by precipitation variation, our study proposed “urban wetscapes” (loosely-defined urban wetlands) as a new indicator for remote sensing detection. The study examined whether urban wetscape dynamics was a sensitive indicator of the coupled effects of the two driving forces. To better detect this indicator, a rule-based classification algorithm was developed to identify fine-scale, hidden wetlands that could not be appropriately detected based on their spectral differentiability by a traditional image classification. Three SPOT images for years 1992, 2008, and 2010, respectively were classified with this technique to generate the four types of land cover as described above. The spatial analyses of remotely-sensed wetscape changes were implemented at the scales of metropolitan, watershed, and sub-watershed, as well as based on the size of surface water bodies in order to accurately reveal urban wetscape change trends in relation to the driving forces. The study identified that urban wetscape dynamics varied in trend and magnitude from the metropolitan, watersheds, to sub-watersheds in response to human impacts at different scales. The study also found that increased precipitation in the region in the past decades swelled larger wetlands in particular while generally smaller wetlands decreased mainly due to human development activities. These results confirm that wetscape dynamics can effectively reveal the coupled effects of human impact and climate change on urban landscapes. As such, remote sensing of this indicator provides new insights into the relationships between urban land cover changes and driving forces.

Keywords: urban land cover, human impact, climate change, rule-based classification, across-scale analysis

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Authors: Syed Towseef Ahmad, Fatima Amin, Pritha Acharya, Anil K. Gupta, Pervez Ahmad

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Glaciers being the sentinels of climate change, are the most visible evidence of global warming. Given the unavailability of observed field-based data, this study has focussed on the use of geospatial techniques to obtain information about the glaciers of Pir-Panjal (PPJ) and the Great Himalayan Regions of Jhelum Basin (GHR). These glaciers need to be monitored in line with the variations in climatic conditions because they significantly contribute to various sectors in the region. The main aim of this study is to map the glaciers in the two adjacent regions (PPJ and GHR) in the north-western Himalayas with different topographies and compare the changes in various glacial attributes during two different time periods (1990-2020). During the last three decades, both PPJ as well as GHR regions have observed deglaciation of around 36 and 26 percent, respectively. The mean elevation of GHR glaciers has increased from 4312 to 4390 masl, while the same for PPJ glaciers has increased from 4085 to 4124 masl during the observation period. Using accumulation area ratio (AAR) method, mean mass balance of -34.52 and -37.6 cm.w.e was recorded for the glaciers of GHR and PPJ, respectively. The difference in areal and mass loss of glaciers in these regions may be due to (i) the smaller size of PPJ glaciers which are all smaller than 1 km² and are thus more responsive to climate change (ii) Higher mean elevation of GHR glaciers (iii) local variations in climatic variables in these glaciated regions. Time series analysis of climate variables indicates that both the mean maximum and minimum temperatures of Qazigund station (Tmax= 19.2, Tmin= 6.4) are comparatively higher than the Pahalgam station (Tmax= 18.8, Tmin= 3.2). Except for precipitation in Qazigund (Slope= - 0.3 mm a⁻¹), each climatic parameter has shown an increasing trend during these three decades, and with the slope of 0.04 and 0.03°c a⁻¹, the positive trend in Tmin (pahalgam) and Tmax (qazigund) are observed to be statistically significant (p≤0.05).

Keywords: glaciers, climate change, Pir-Panjal, greater Himalayas, mass balance

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Authors: D. Velayadum, P. Sthandiwe , N. Maharaj, T. Munien, S. Ndamase, G. Zulu, S. Xulu, F. Oosthuizen

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Introduction and aims of the study: It is the responsibility of the pharmacist to manage drug-related problems in order to ensure the greatest benefit to the patient. In order to prevent drug-related morbidity, pharmacists should be aware of medicines that may contribute to certain drug-related problems due to their pharmacological action. In an attempt to assist healthcare practitioners to prevent drug-related morbidity (PDRM), indicators for prevention have been designed. There are currently no indicators available for primary health care in developing countries like South Africa, where the majority of the population access primary health care. There is, therefore, a need to develop such indicators, specifically with the aim of assisting healthcare practitioners in primary health care. Methods: A literature study was conducted to compile a comprehensive list of PDRM indicators as developed internationally using the search engines Google Scholar and PubMed. MESH term used to retrieve suitable articles was 'preventable drug-related morbidity indicators'. The comprehensive list of PDRM indicators obtained from the literature study was further evaluated for face validity. Face validity was done in duplicate by 2 sets of independent researchers to ensure 1) no duplication of indicators when compiling a single list, 2) inclusion of only medication available in primary healthcare, and 3) inclusion of medication currently available in South Africa. Results: The list of indicators, compiled from PDRM indicators in the USA, UK, Portugal, Australia, India, and Canada contained 324 PDRM. 184 of these indicators were found to be duplicates, and the duplications were omitted, leaving a final list of 140. The 140 PDRM indicators were evaluated for face-validity, and 97 were accepted as relevant to primary health care in South Africa. 43 indicators did not comply with the criteria and were omitted from the final list. Conclusion: This study is a first step in compiling a list of PDRM indicators for South Africa. It is important to take cognizance to the fact the health systems differ vastly internationally, and it is, therefore, important to develop country-specific indicators.

Keywords: drug-related morbidity, primary healthcare, South Africa, developing countries

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Authors: Muhammad Imran, Iqra Basit, Mobushir Riaz Khan, Sajid Rasheed Ahmad

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The present study investigates the space-time impact of climate change on the rice crop calendar in tropical Gujranwala, Pakistan. The climate change impact was quantified through the climatic variables, whereas the existing calendar of the rice crop was compared with the phonological stages of the crop, depicted through the time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data for the decade 2005-2015. Local maxima were applied on the time series of NDVI to compute the rice phonological stages. Panel models with fixed and cross-section fixed effects were used to establish the relation between the climatic parameters and the time-series of NDVI across villages and across rice growing periods. Results show that the climatic parameters have significant impact on the rice crop calendar. Moreover, the fixed effect model is a significant improvement over cross-sectional fixed effect models (R-squared equal to 0.673 vs. 0.0338). We conclude that high inter-annual variability of climatic variables cause high variability of NDVI, and thus, a shift in the rice crop calendar. Moreover, inter-annual (temporal) variability of the rice crop calendar is high compared to the inter-village (spatial) variability. We suggest the local rice farmers to adapt this change in the rice crop calendar.

Keywords: Landsat NDVI, panel models, temperature, rainfall

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Authors: Sina Abadzadesahraei, Stephen Déry, John Rex

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Climate research has repeatedly identified strong associations between anthropogenic emissions of ‘greenhouses gases’ and observed increases of global mean surface air temperature over the past century. Studies have also demonstrated that the degree of warming varies regionally. Canada is not exempt from this situation, and evidence is mounting that climate change is beginning to cause diverse impacts in both environmental and socio-economic spheres of interest. For example, northeastern British Columbia (BC), whose climate is controlled by a combination of maritime, continental and arctic influences, is warming at a greater rate than the remainder of the province. There are indications that these changing conditions are already leading to shifting patterns in the region’s hydrological cycle, and thus its available water resources. Coincident with these changes, northeastern BC is undergoing rapid development for oil and gas extraction: This depends largely on subsurface hydraulic fracturing (‘fracking’), which uses enormous amounts of freshwater. While this industrial activity has made substantial contributions to regional and provincial economies, it is important to ensure that sufficient and sustainable water supplies are available for all those dependent on the resource, including ecological systems. In this turn demands a comprehensive understanding of how water in all its forms interacts with landscapes, the atmosphere, and of the potential impacts of changing climatic conditions on these processes. The aim of this study is therefore to characterize and quantify all components of the water budget in the small watershed of Coles Lake (141.8 km², 100 km north of Fort Nelson, BC), through a combination of field observations and numerical modelling. Baseline information will aid the assessment of the sustainability of current and future plans for freshwater extraction by the oil and gas industry, and will help to maintain the precarious balance between economic and environmental well-being. This project is a perfect example of interdisciplinary research, in that it not only examines the hydrology of the region but also investigates how natural gas operations and growth can affect water resources. Therefore, a fruitful collaboration between academia, government and industry has been established to fulfill the objectives of this research in a meaningful manner. This project aims to provide numerous benefits to BC communities. Further, the outcome and detailed information of this research can be a huge asset to researchers examining the effect of climate change on water resources worldwide.

Keywords: northeastern British Columbia, water resources, climate change, oil and gas extraction

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