Search results for: annual and daily flow duration curve
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 10255

Search results for: annual and daily flow duration curve

4945 Assessment of Impact of Urbanization in High Mountain Urban Watersheds

Authors: D. M. Rey, V. Delgado, J. Zambrano Nájera

Abstract:

Increases in urbanization during XX century, has produced changes in natural dynamics of the basins, which has resulted in increases in runoff volumes, peak flows and flow velocities, that in turn increases flood risk. Higher runoff volumes decrease sewerage networks hydraulic capacity and can cause its failure. This in turn generates increasingly recurrent floods causing mobility problems and general economic detriment in the cities. In Latin America, especially Colombia, this is a major problem because urban population at late XX century was more than 70% is in urban areas increasing approximately in 790% in 1940-1990 period. Besides, high slopes product of Andean topography and high precipitation typical of tropical climates increases velocities and volumes even more, causing stopping of cities during storms. Thus, it becomes very important to know hydrological behavior of Andean Urban Watersheds. This research aims to determine the impact of urbanization in high sloped urban watersheds in its hydrology. To this end, it will be used as study area experimental urban watershed named Palogrande-San Luis watershed, located in the city of Manizales, Colombia. Manizales is a city in central western Colombia, located in Colombian Central Mountain Range (part of Los Andes Mountains) with an abrupt topography (average altitude is 2.153 m). The climate in Manizales is quite uniform, but due to its high altitude it presents high precipitations (1.545 mm/year average) with high humidity (83% average). It was applied HEC-HMS Hydrologic model on the watershed. The inputs to the model were derived from Geographic Information Systems (GIS) theme layers of the Instituto de Estudios Ambientales –IDEA of Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales (Institute of Environmental Studies) and aerial photography taken for the research in conjunction with available literature and look up tables. Rainfall data from a network of 4 rain gages and historical stream flow data were used to calibrate and validate runoff depth using the hydrologic model. Manual calibration was made, and the simulation results show that the model selected is able to characterize the runoff response of the watershed due to land use for urbanization in high mountain watersheds.

Keywords: Andean watersheds modelling, high mountain urban hydrology, urban planning, hydrologic modelling

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4944 Fuel Cells and Offshore Wind Turbines Technology for Eco-Friendly Ports with a Case Study

Authors: Ibrahim Sadek Sedik Ibrahim, Mohamed M. Elgohary

Abstract:

Sea ports are considered one of the factors affecting the progress of economic globalization and the international trade; consequently, they are considered one of the sources involved in the deterioration of the maritime environment due to the excessive amount of exhaust gases emitted from their activities. The majority of sea ports depend on the national electric grid as a source of power for the domestic and ships’ electric demands. This paper discusses the possibility of shifting ports from relying on the national grid electricity to green power-based ports. Offshore wind turbines and hydrogenic PEM fuel cell units appear as two typical promising clean energy sources for ports. As a case study, the paper investigates the prospect of converting Alexandria Port in Egypt to be an eco-friendly port with the study of technical, logistic, and financial requirements. The results show that the fuel cell, followed by a combined system of wind turbines and fuel cells, is the best choice regarding electricity production unit cost by 0.101 and 0.107 $/kWh, respectively. Furthermore, using of fuel cells and offshore wind turbine as green power concept will achieving emissions reduction quantity of CO₂, NOx, and CO emissions by 80,441, 20.814, and 133.025 ton per year, respectively. Finally, the paper highlights the role that renewable energy can play when supplying Alexandria Port with green energy to lift the burden on the government in supporting the electricity, with a possibility of achieving a profit of 3.85% to 22.31% of the annual electricity cost compared with the international prices.

Keywords: fuel cells, green ports, IMO, national electric grid, offshore wind turbines, port emissions, renewable energy

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4943 Quinazoline Analogue as a Pet Tracer for Imaging PDE10A: Radiosynthesis and Biological Evaluation

Authors: Anjani Kumar Tiwari, Neelam Kumari, Anil Mishra

Abstract:

The family of phosphodiesterases (PDEs) plays a critical role in control of the level, localization, and duration of intracellular 3’-5’-cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) and 3’-5’-cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP) signals by specifically hydrolyzing these cyclic nucleotides. As the involvement of cyclic nucleotide second messengers in cell signaling and homeostasis is established, the regulation of these pathways in the brain by various PDE isoforms is an area of considerable interest, as they are involved in nearly all brain functions and in the etiology of neuropsychiatric diseases. The PDE10A isoform, isolated from different species and characterized regarding structure and function, has received much attention in recent years, particularly in the context of schizophrenia and Huntington’s disease, which are both related to a role of PDE10A in the regulation of striatal dopaminergic neurotransmission. Quinazoline analogue 1-(4-methoxyphenyl)-6,7-dimethoxyquinazoline, was evaluated as specific PET marker for phosphodiesterase (PDE) 10A. Here, we report the radiosynthesis of [11C]2 and the in vitro and in vivo evaluation of [11C]2 as a potential positron emission tomography (PET) radiotracer for imaging PDE10A in the central nervous system (CNS). The radiosynthesis of [11C]2 was achieved by O-methylation of the corresponding des-methyl precursor with [11C]methyl iodide. [11C]2 was obtained with ∼50% radiochemical yield. PET imaging studies in rat brain displayed initial specific uptake with very rapid clearance of [11C]2 from brain. Though [11C]2 is not an ideal radioligand for clinical imaging of PDE10A in the CNS. Modified analogue of quinazoline having a higher potency for inhibiting PDE10A and improved pharmacokinetic properties will be necessary for imaging this enzyme with PET.

Keywords: PDE10A, PET, radiotracer, quinazoline

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4942 On the Optimality Assessment of Nano-Particle Size Spectrometry and Its Association to the Entropy Concept

Authors: A. Shaygani, R. Saifi, M. S. Saidi, M. Sani

Abstract:

Particle size distribution, the most important characteristics of aerosols, is obtained through electrical characterization techniques. The dynamics of charged nano-particles under the influence of electric field in electrical mobility spectrometer (EMS) reveals the size distribution of these particles. The accuracy of this measurement is influenced by flow conditions, geometry, electric field and particle charging process, therefore by the transfer function (transfer matrix) of the instrument. In this work, a wire-cylinder corona charger was designed and the combined field-diffusion charging process of injected poly-disperse aerosol particles was numerically simulated as a prerequisite for the study of a multi-channel EMS. The result, a cloud of particles with non-uniform charge distribution, was introduced to the EMS. The flow pattern and electric field in the EMS were simulated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to obtain particle trajectories in the device and therefore to calculate the reported signal by each electrometer. According to the output signals (resulted from bombardment of particles and transferring their charges as currents), we proposed a modification to the size of detecting rings (which are connected to electrometers) in order to evaluate particle size distributions more accurately. Based on the capability of the system to transfer information contents about size distribution of the injected particles, we proposed a benchmark for the assessment of optimality of the design. This method applies the concept of Von Neumann entropy and borrows the definition of entropy from information theory (Shannon entropy) to measure optimality. Entropy, according to the Shannon entropy, is the ''average amount of information contained in an event, sample or character extracted from a data stream''. Evaluating the responses (signals) which were obtained via various configurations of detecting rings, the best configuration which gave the best predictions about the size distributions of injected particles, was the modified configuration. It was also the one that had the maximum amount of entropy. A reasonable consistency was also observed between the accuracy of the predictions and the entropy content of each configuration. In this method, entropy is extracted from the transfer matrix of the instrument for each configuration. Ultimately, various clouds of particles were introduced to the simulations and predicted size distributions were compared to the exact size distributions.

Keywords: aerosol nano-particle, CFD, electrical mobility spectrometer, von neumann entropy

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4941 Violations of Press Freedom

Authors: Khalid Achaat

Abstract:

It is difficult to speak about freedom of the press in Algeria without first talking to fifty-seven journalists killed in the country between 1993 and 1997 and the five missing journalists. No serious investigation was conducted to find the culprits. When a State is not able to guarantee law, there is no justice and violations of the law become "systematic". How to claim the freedom of press in Algeria, when death becomes "banal"? In these circumstances, can we talk of rights of the Algerian press? It is impossible to understand the problems of the press in Algeria, focusing solely legal issues. Take into account technical, financial and political. Their respective roles varies depending on whether one focuses on the collection of information, the regime of the newspaper company or publication and dissemination. Can we say that the Algerian press is "the freest in the Arab world", while the latter reflects only partially the real problems facing the country? While any newspaper company is subject, de facto, to an authorization scheme, permanently subjected to the constant threat of withdrawal of the authorization, suspension, prohibition or closure without it has the right to a remedy? Can it be free when the majority of "media owners", head of the largest daily newspapers are derived from the single party in power since independence? Some of this release does not it serves the interests of the Algerian power?

Keywords: freedom, press, power, closure, suspension

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4940 Life Cycle Assessment: Drinking Glass Systems

Authors: Devina Jain

Abstract:

The choice between single-use drinking glasses and reusable glasses is of major concern to our lifestyles, and hence, the environment. This study is aimed at comparing three systems - a disposable paper cup, a disposable cup and a reusable stainless steel cup or glass - with respect to their effect on the environment to find out which one is more advantageous for reducing the impact on the environment. Life Cycle Assessment was conducted using modeling software, Umberto NXT Universal (Version 7.1). For the purpose of this study, the cradle to grave approach was considered. Results showed that cleaning is of a very strong influence on the environmental burden by these drinking systems, with a contribution of up to 90 to 100%. Thus, the burden is determined by the way in which the utensils are washed, and how much water is consumed. It maybe seems like a small, insignificant daily practice. In the short term, it would seem that paper and plastic cups are a better idea, since they are easy to acquire and do not need to be stored, but in the long run, we can say that steel cups will have less of an environmental impact. However, if the frequency of use and the number of glasses employed per use are of significance to decide the appropriateness of the usage, it is better to use disposable cups and glasses.

Keywords: disposable glass, life cycle assessment, paper, plastic, reusable glass, stainless steel

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4939 Acceleration of DNA Hybridization Using Electroosmotic Flow

Authors: Yun-Hsiang Wang, Huai-Yi Chen, Kin Fong Lei

Abstract:

Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) hybridization is a common technique used in genetic assay widely. However, the hybridization ratio and rate are usually limited by the diffusion effect. Here, microfluidic electrode platform producing electroosmosis generated by alternating current signal has been proposed to enhance the hybridization ratio and rate. The electrode was made of aurum fabricated by microfabrication technique. Thiol-modified oligo probe was immobilized on the electrode for specific capture of target, which is modified by fluorescent tag. Alternative electroosmosis can induce local microfluidic vortexes to accelerate DNA hybridization. This study provides a strategy to enhance the rate of DNA hybridization in the genetic assay.

Keywords: DNA hybridization, electroosmosis, electrical enhancement, hybridization ratio

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4938 Climate Trends, Variability, and Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Rainfall Amount in Ethiopia

Authors: Zerihun Yohannes Amare, Belayneh Birku Geremew, Nigatu Melise Kebede, Sisaynew Getahun Amera

Abstract:

In Ethiopia, agricultural production is predominantly rainfed. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the driver of climate variability, which affects the agricultural production system in the country. This paper aims to study trends, variability of rainfall, and impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall amount. The study was carried out in Ethiopia's Western Amhara National Regional State, which features a variety of seasons that characterize the nation. Monthly rainfall data were collected from fifteen meteorological stations of Western Amhara. Selected El Niño and La Niña years were also extracted from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from 1986 to 2015. Once the data quality was checked and inspected, the monthly rainfall data of the selected stations were arranged in Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet and analyzed using XLSTAT software. The coefficient of variation and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test was employed to analyze trends and variability of rainfall and temperature. The long-term recorded annual rainfall data indicated that there was an increasing trend from 1986 to 2015 insignificantly. The rainfall variability was less (Coefficient of Variation, CV = 8.6%); also, the mean monthly rainfall of Western Amhara decreased during El Niño years and increased during La Niña years, especially in the rainy season (JJAS) over 30 years. This finding will be useful to suggest possible adaptation strategies and efficient use of resources during planning and implementation.

Keywords: rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, El Niño, La Niña, Western Amhara, Ethiopia

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4937 An Optimal Control Method for Reconstruction of Topography in Dam-Break Flows

Authors: Alia Alghosoun, Nabil El Moçayd, Mohammed Seaid

Abstract:

Modeling dam-break flows over non-flat beds requires an accurate representation of the topography which is the main source of uncertainty in the model. Therefore, developing robust and accurate techniques for reconstructing topography in this class of problems would reduce the uncertainty in the flow system. In many hydraulic applications, experimental techniques have been widely used to measure the bed topography. In practice, experimental work in hydraulics may be very demanding in both time and cost. Meanwhile, computational hydraulics have served as an alternative for laboratory and field experiments. Unlike the forward problem, the inverse problem is used to identify the bed parameters from the given experimental data. In this case, the shallow water equations used for modeling the hydraulics need to be rearranged in a way that the model parameters can be evaluated from measured data. However, this approach is not always possible and it suffers from stability restrictions. In the present work, we propose an adaptive optimal control technique to numerically identify the underlying bed topography from a given set of free-surface observation data. In this approach, a minimization function is defined to iteratively determine the model parameters. The proposed technique can be interpreted as a fractional-stage scheme. In the first stage, the forward problem is solved to determine the measurable parameters from known data. In the second stage, the adaptive control Ensemble Kalman Filter is implemented to combine the optimality of observation data in order to obtain the accurate estimation of the topography. The main features of this method are on one hand, the ability to solve for different complex geometries with no need for any rearrangements in the original model to rewrite it in an explicit form. On the other hand, its achievement of strong stability for simulations of flows in different regimes containing shocks or discontinuities over any geometry. Numerical results are presented for a dam-break flow problem over non-flat bed using different solvers for the shallow water equations. The robustness of the proposed method is investigated using different numbers of loops, sensitivity parameters, initial samples and location of observations. The obtained results demonstrate high reliability and accuracy of the proposed techniques.

Keywords: erodible beds, finite element method, finite volume method, nonlinear elasticity, shallow water equations, stresses in soil

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4936 Evaluating and Reducing Aircraft Technical Delays and Cancellations Impact on Reliability Operational: Case Study of Airline Operator

Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar, Ahmad Bakkar

Abstract:

Although special care is given to maintenance, aircraft systems fail, and these failures cause delays and cancellations. The occurrence of Delays and Cancellations affects operators and manufacturers negatively. To reduce technical delays and cancellations, one should be able to determine the important systems causing them. The goal of this research is to find a method to define the most expensive delays and cancellations systems for Airline operators. A predictive model was introduced to forecast the failure and their impact after carrying out research that identifies relevant information to tackle the problems faced while answering the questions of this paper. Data were obtained from the manufacturers’ services reliability team database. Subsequently, delays and cancellations evaluation methods were identified. No cost estimation methods were used due to their complexity. The model was developed, and it takes into account the frequency of delays and cancellations and uses weighting factors to give an indication of the severity of their duration. The weighting factors are based on customer experience. The data Analysis approach has shown that delays and cancellations events are not seasonal and do not follow any specific trends. The use of weighting factor does have an influence on the shortlist over short periods (Monthly) but not the analyzed period of three years. Landing gear and the navigation system are among the top 3 factors causing delays and cancellations for all three aircraft types. The results did confirm that the cooperation between certain operators and manufacture reduce the impact of delays and cancellations.

Keywords: reliability, availability, delays & cancellations, aircraft maintenance

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4935 Co-Precipitation Method for the Fabrication of Charge-Transfer Molecular Crystal Nanocapsules

Authors: Rabih Al-Kaysi

Abstract:

When quasi-stable solutions of 9-methylanthracene (pi-electron donor, 0.0005 M) and 1,2,4,5-Tetracyanobenzene (pi-electron acceptor, 0.0005 M) in aqueous sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS, 0.025 M) were gently mixed, uniform-shaped rectangular charge-transfer nanocrystals precipitated out. These red colored charge-transfer (CT) crystals were composed of a 1:1-mole ratio of acceptor/ donor and are highly insoluble in water/SDS solution. The rectangular crystals morphology is semi hollow with symmetrical twin pockets reminiscent of nanocapsules. For a typical crop of nanocapsules, the dimensions are 21 x 6 x 0.5 microns with an approximate hollow volume of 1.5 x 105 nm3. By varying the concentration of aqueous SDS, mixing duration and incubation temperature, we can control the size and volume of the nanocapsules. The initial number of CT seed nanoparticles, formed by mixing the D and A solutions, determined the number and dimensions of the obtained nanocapsules formed after several hours of incubation under still conditions. Prolonged mixing of the donor and acceptor solutions resulted in plenty of initial seeds hence smaller nanocapsules. Short mixing times yields less seed formation and larger micron-sized capsules. The addition of Doxorubicin in situ with the quasi-stable solutions while mixing leads to the formation of CT nanocapsules with Doxorubicin sealed inside. The Doxorubicin can be liberated from the nanocapsules by cracking them using ultrasonication. This method can be extended to other binary CT complex crystals as well.

Keywords: charge-transfer, nanocapsules, nanocrystals, doxorubicin

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4934 Reversible Cerebral Vasoconstriction Syndrome at Emergency Department

Authors: Taerim Kim, Shin Ahn, Chang Hwan Sohn, Dong Woo Seo, Won Young Kim

Abstract:

Object: Reversible cerebral vasospasm syndrome (RCVS) remains an underrated cause of thunderclap headache which shares similar history of the ‘worst-ever’ headache with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) to the emergency physicians. This study evaluated the clinical manifestations, radiological features, and outcomes of patients with RCVS so that the physicians could raise the high index of suspicion to detect RCVS in more patients with thunderclap headache before having life-threatening complications. Methods: The electric medical records of 18 patients with diagnostic criteria of RCVS at the emergency department (ED) between January 2013 and December 2014 were retrospective reviewed. Results: The mean age was 50.7 years, and 80% were women. Patients with RCVS visit an average of 4.7 physicians before receiving an accurate diagnosis and mean duration of symptom until diagnosis is 9.3 days. All patients except one experienced severe headache, from 8 to 10 pain intensity on a numerical rating scale (NRS). 44% of patients had nausea as an associated symptom, 66% of patients experienced worsening of headache while gagging, leaning forward, defecating, urinating or having sex. The most frequently affected vessels are middle cerebral arteries demonstrating the characteristic diffuse “string of beads” appearance. Four patients had SAH as a complication. Conclusion: Patients with RCVS have a unique set of clinical and imaging features. Emergency physicians should raise the high index of suspicion to detect RCVS in more patients with thunderclap headache before life-threatening complications.

Keywords: headache, thunderclap, subarachnoid haemorrhage, stroke

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4933 Perceiving Casual Speech: A Gating Experiment with French Listeners of L2 English

Authors: Naouel Zoghlami

Abstract:

Spoken-word recognition involves the simultaneous activation of potential word candidates which compete with each other for final correct recognition. In continuous speech, the activation-competition process gets more complicated due to speech reductions existing at word boundaries. Lexical processing is more difficult in L2 than in L1 because L2 listeners often lack phonetic, lexico-semantic, syntactic, and prosodic knowledge in the target language. In this study, we investigate the on-line lexical segmentation hypotheses that French listeners of L2 English form and then revise as subsequent perceptual evidence is revealed. Our purpose is to shed further light on the processes of L2 spoken-word recognition in context and better understand L2 listening difficulties through a comparison of skilled and unskilled reactions at the point where their working hypothesis is rejected. We use a variant of the gating experiment in which subjects transcribe an English sentence presented in increments of progressively greater duration. The spoken sentence was “And this amazing athlete has just broken another world record”, chosen mainly because it included common reductions and phonetic features in English, such as elision and assimilation. Our preliminary results show that there is an important difference in the manner in which proficient and less-proficient L2 listeners handle connected speech. Less-proficient listeners delay recognition of words as they wait for lexical and syntactic evidence to appear in the gates. Further statistical results are currently being undertaken.

Keywords: gating paradigm, spoken word recognition, online lexical segmentation, L2 listening

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4932 Impact of Modern Beehive on Income of Rural Households: Evidence from Bugina District of Northern Ethiopia

Authors: Wondmnew Derebe Yohannis

Abstract:

The enhanced utilization of modern beehives holds significant potential to enhance the livelihoods of smallholder farmers who heavily rely on mixed crop-livestock farming for their income. Recognizing this, the distribution of improved beehives has been implemented across various regions in Ethiopia, including the Bugina district. However, the precise impact of these improved beehives on farmers' income has received limited attention. To address this gap, this study aims to assess the influence of adopting upgraded beehives on rural households' income and asset accumulation. To conduct this research, survey data was gathered from a sample of 350 households selected through random sampling. The collected data was then analyzed using an econometric stochastic frontier model (ESRM) approach. The findings reveal that the adoption of improved beehives has resulted in higher annual income and asset growth for beekeepers. On average, those who adopted the improved beehives earned approximately 6,077 Ethiopian Birr (ETB) more than their counterparts who did not adopt these beehives. However, it is worth noting that the impact of adoption would have been even greater for non-adopters, as evidenced by the negative transitional heterogeneity effect of 1792 ETB. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that the decision to adopt or not adopt improved beehives was driven by individual self-selection. The adoption of improved beehives also led to an increase in fixed assets for households, establishing it as a viable strategy for poverty reduction. Overall, this study underscores the positive effect of adopting improved beehives on rural households' income and asset holdings, showcasing its potential to uplift smallholder farmers and serve as an alternative mechanism for reducing poverty.

Keywords: impact, adoption, endogenous switching regression, income, improved beehives

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4931 Pyrethroid Resistance and Its Mechanism in Field Populations of the Sand Termite, Psammotermes hypostoma Desneux

Authors: Mai. M. Toughan, Ahmed A. A. Sallam, Ashraf O. Abd El-Latif

Abstract:

Termites are eusocial insects that are found on all continents except Antarctica. Termites have serious destructive impact, damaging local huts and crops of poor subsistence. The annual cost of termite damage and its control is determined in the billions globally. In Egypt, most of these damages are due to the subterranean termite species especially the sand termite, P. hypostoma. Pyrethroids became the primary weapon for subterranean termite control, after the use of chlorpyrifos as a soil termiticide was banned. Despite the important role of pyrethroids in termite control, its extensive use in pest control led to the eventual rise of insecticide resistance which may make many of the pyrethroids ineffective. The ability to diagnose the precise mechanism of pyrethroid resistance in any insect species would be the key component of its management at specified location for a specific population. In the present study, detailed toxicological and biochemical studies was conducted on the mechanism of pyrethroid resistance in P. hypostoma. The susceptibility of field populations of P. hypostoma against deltamethrin, α-cypermethrin and ƛ-cyhalothrin was evaluated. The obtained results revealed that the workers of P. hypostoma have developed high resistance level against the tested pyrethroids. Studies carried out through estimation of detoxification enzyme activity indicated that enhanced esterase and cytochrome P450 activities were probably important mechanisms for pyrethroid resistance in field populations. Elevated esterase activity and also additional esterase isozyme were observed in the pyrethroid-resistant populations compared to the susceptible populations. Strong positive correlation between cytochrome P450 activity and pyrethroid resistance was also reported. |Deltamethrin could be recommended as a resistance-breaking pyrethroid that is active against resistant populations of P. hypostoma.

Keywords: Psammotermes hypostoma, pyrethroid resistance, esterase, cytochrome P450

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4930 Strained Channel Aluminum Nitride/Gallium Nitride Heterostructures Homoepitaxially Grown on Aluminum Nitride-On-Sapphire Template by Plasma-Assisted Molecular Beam Epitaxy

Authors: Jiajia Yao, GuanLin Wu, Fang liu, JunShuai Xue, JinCheng Zhang, Yue Hao

Abstract:

Due to its outstanding material properties like high thermal conductivity and ultra-wide bandgap, Aluminum nitride (AlN) has the promising potential to provide high breakdown voltage and high output power among III-nitrides for various applications in electronics and optoelectronics. This work presents material growth and characterization of strained channel Aluminum nitride/Gallium nitride (AlN/GaN) heterostructures grown by plasma-assisted molecular beam epitaxy (PA-MBE) on AlN-on-sapphire templates. To improve the crystal quality and manifest the ability of the PA-MBE approach, a thick AlN buffer with a thickness of 180 nm is first grown on AlN template, which acts as a back-barrier to enhance the breakdown characteristic and isolates the leakage path existing in the interface between AlN epilayer and AlN template, as well as improve the heat dissipation. The grown AlN buffer features a root-mean-square roughness of 0.2 nm over a scanned area of 2×2 µm2 measured by atomic force microscopy (AFM), and exhibits full-width at half-maximum of 95 and 407 arcsec for the (002) and (102) plane the X-ray rocking curve, respectively, tested by high resolution x-ray diffraction (HR-XRD). With a thin and strained GaN channel, the electron mobility of 294 cm2 /Vs. with a carrier concentration of 2.82×1013 cm-2 at room temperature is achieved in AlN/GaN double-channel heterostructures, and the depletion capacitance is as low as 14 pF resolved by the capacitance-voltage, which indicates the promising opportunities for future applications in next-generation high temperature, high-frequency and high-power electronics with a further increased electron mobility by optimization of heterointerface quality.

Keywords: AlN/GaN, HEMT, MBE, homoepitaxy

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4929 Colloids and Heavy Metals in Groundwaters: Tangential Flow Filtration Method for Study of Metal Distribution on Different Sizes of Colloids

Authors: Jiancheng Zheng

Abstract:

When metals are released into water from mining activities, they undergo changes chemically, physically and biologically and then may become more mobile and transportable along the waterway from their original sites. Natural colloids, including both organic and inorganic entities, are naturally occurring in any aquatic environment with sizes in the nanometer range. Natural colloids in a water system play an important role, quite often a key role, in binding and transporting compounds. When assessing and evaluating metals in natural waters, their sources, mobility, fate, and distribution patterns in the system are the major concerns from the point of view of assessing environmental contamination and pollution during resource development. There are a few ways to quantify colloids and accordingly study how metals distribute on different sizes of colloids. Current research results show that the presence of colloids can enhance the transport of some heavy metals in water, while heavy metals may also have an influence on the transport of colloids when cations in the water system change colloids and/or the ion strength of the water system changes. Therefore, studies into the relationship between different sizes of colloids and different metals in a water system are necessary and needed as natural colloids in water systems are complex mixtures of both organic and inorganic as well as biological materials. Their stability could be sensitive to changes in their shapes, phases, hardness and functionalities due to coagulation and deposition et al. and chemical, physical, and biological reactions. Because metal contaminants’ adsorption on surfaces of colloids is closely related to colloid properties, it is desired to fraction water samples as soon as possible after a sample is taken in the natural environment in order to avoid changes to water samples during transportation and storage. For this reason, this study carried out groundwater sample processing in the field, using Prep/Scale tangential flow filtration systems with 3-level cartridges (1 kDa, 10 kDa and 100 kDa). Groundwater samples from seven sites at Fort MacMurray, Alberta, Canada, were fractionated during the 2015 field sampling season. All samples were processed within 3 hours after samples were taken. Preliminary results show that although the distribution pattern of metals on colloids may vary with different samples taken from different sites, some elements often tend to larger colloids (such as Fe and Re), some to finer colloids (such as Sb and Zn), while some of them mainly in the dissolved form (such as Mo and Be). This information is useful to evaluate and project the fate and mobility of different metals in the groundwaters and possibly in environmental water systems.

Keywords: metal, colloid, groundwater, mobility, fractionation, sorption

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4928 Neural Network Approaches for Sea Surface Height Predictability Using Sea Surface Temperature

Authors: Luther Ollier, Sylvie Thiria, Anastase Charantonis, Carlos E. Mejia, Michel Crépon

Abstract:

Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SLA) is a signature of the sub-mesoscale dynamics of the upper ocean. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is driven by these dynamics and can be used to improve the spatial interpolation of SLA fields. In this study, we focused on the temporal evolution of SLA fields. We explored the capacity of deep learning (DL) methods to predict short-term SLA fields using SST fields. We used simulated daily SLA and SST data from the Mercator Global Analysis and Forecasting System, with a resolution of (1/12)◦ in the North Atlantic Ocean (26.5-44.42◦N, -64.25–41.83◦E), covering the period from 1993 to 2019. Using a slightly modified image-to-image convolutional DL architecture, we demonstrated that SST is a relevant variable for controlling the SLA prediction. With a learning process inspired by the teaching-forcing method, we managed to improve the SLA forecast at five days by using the SST fields as additional information. We obtained predictions of a 12 cm (20 cm) error of SLA evolution for scales smaller than mesoscales and at time scales of 5 days (20 days), respectively. Moreover, the information provided by the SST allows us to limit the SLA error to 16 cm at 20 days when learning the trajectory.

Keywords: deep-learning, altimetry, sea surface temperature, forecast

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4927 Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis of Sit-Ski Aerodynamics in Crosswind Conditions

Authors: Lev Chernyshev, Ekaterina Lieshout, Natalia Kabaliuk

Abstract:

Sit-skis enable individuals with limited lower limb or core movement to ski unassisted confidently. The rise in popularity of the Winter Paralympics has seen an influx of engineering innovation, especially for the Downhill and Super-Giant Slalom events, where the athletes achieve speeds as high as 160km/h. The growth in the sport has inspired recent research into sit-ski aerodynamics. Crosswinds are expected in mountain climates and, therefore, can greatly impact a skier's maneuverability and aerodynamics. This research investigates the impact of crosswinds on the drag force of a Paralympic sit-ski using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). A Paralympic sit-ski with a model of a skier, a leg cover, a bucket seat, and a simplified suspension system was used for CFD analysis in ANSYS Fluent. The hybrid initialisation tool and the SST k–ω turbulence model were used with two tetrahedral mesh bodies of influence. The crosswinds (10, 30, and 50 km/h) acting perpendicular to the sit-ski's direction of travel were simulated, corresponding to the straight-line skiing speeds of 60, 80, and 100km/h. Following the initialisation, 150 iterations for both first and second order steady-state solvers were used, before switching to a transient solver with a computational time of 1.5s and a time step of 0.02s, to allow the solution to converge. CFD results were validated against wind tunnel data. The results suggested that for all crosswind and sit-ski speeds, on average, 64% of the total drag on the ski was due to the athlete's torso. The suspension was associated with the second largest overall sit-ski drag force contribution, averaging at 27%, followed by the leg cover at 10%. While the seat contributed a negligible 0.5% of the total drag force, averaging at 1.2N across the conditions studied. The effect of the crosswind increased the total drag force across all skiing speed studies, with the drag on the athlete's torso and suspension being the most sensitive to the changes in the crosswind magnitude. The effect of the crosswind on the ski drag reduced as the simulated skiing speed increased: for skiing at 60km/h, the drag force on the torso increased by 154% with the increase of the crosswind from 10km/h to 50km/h; whereas, at 100km/h the corresponding drag force increase was halved (75%). The analysis of the flow and pressure field characteristics for a sit-ski in crosswind conditions indicated the flow separation localisation and wake size correlated with the magnitude and directionality of the crosswind relative to straight-line skiing. The findings can inform aerodynamic improvements in sit-ski design and increase skiers' medalling chances.

Keywords: sit-ski, aerodynamics, CFD, crosswind effects

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4926 Models Comparison for Solar Radiation

Authors: Djelloul Benatiallah

Abstract:

Due to the current high consumption and recent industry growth, the depletion of fossil and natural energy supplies like oil, gas, and uranium is declining. Due to pollution and climate change, there needs to be a swift switch to renewable energy sources. Research on renewable energy is being done to meet energy needs. Solar energy is one of the renewable resources that can currently meet all of the world's energy needs. In most parts of the world, solar energy is a free and unlimited resource that can be used in a variety of ways, including photovoltaic systems for the generation of electricity and thermal systems for the generation of heatfor the residential sector's production of hot water. In this article, we'll conduct a comparison. The first step entails identifying the two empirical models that will enable us to estimate the daily irradiations on a horizontal plane. On the other hand, we compare it using the data obtained from measurements made at the Adrar site over the four distinct seasons. The model 2 provides a better estimate of the global solar components, with an absolute mean error of less than 7% and a correlation coefficient of more than 0.95, as well as a relative coefficient of the bias error that is less than 6% in absolute value and a relative RMSE that is less than 10%, according to a comparison of the results obtained by simulating the two models.

Keywords: solar radiation, renewable energy, fossil, photovoltaic systems

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4925 Assessment of Alteration in High Density Lipo Protein, Apolipoprotein A1, Serum Glutamic Pyruvic Transaminase and Serum Glutamic Oxaloacetic Transaminase in Oral Submucous Fibrosis Patients

Authors: Marina Lazar Chandy, N. Kannan, Rajendra Patil, Vinod Mathew, Ajmal Mohamed, P. K. Sreeja, Renju Jose

Abstract:

Introduction- Arecoline, a major constituent of arecanut has shown to have some effect on liver. The use of arecanut is found to be the most common etiological factor for the development of Oral Submucous fibrosis (O.S.M.F). The effect of arecanut usage on liver in patients with O.S.M.F needs to be assessed. Lipids play a role in structural maintenance of cell. Alterations of lipid profile were noted in cancer patients. O.S.M.F being a precancerous lesion can have some effect on the level of lipids in the body. Objectives: This study was done to assess the alterations in liver enzymes (Serum Glutamic Pyruvic Transaminase(S.G.P.T ,Serum Glutamic Oxaloacetic Transaminase(S.G.O.T)) and lipid metabolism (High Density Lipoprotien(H.D.L) and Apo Lipoprotien A1 (Apo A1)) in patients with O.S.M.F. Methods-130 patients were taken for the study,100 patients with O.S.M.F and 30 as control group without O.S.M.F. Fasting blood sugar levels were taken, centrifuged and analyzed for S.G.P.T,S.G.O.T, H.D.L and Apo A1 using semi automated spectrophotometer. Results: After statistical analysis, it was concluded that there is an elevation of levels of S.G.P.T, S.G.O.T, and decreased levels of H.D.L, Apo A1 for O.S.M.F group when compared with control group. With increased grade of O.S.M.F. and duration of habit, S.G.P.T. & S.G.O.T. increased whereas, H.D.L. & Apo A1 decreased. All the values were statistically significant at p<0.01.

Keywords: apolipoprotien A1, high density lipoprotien, oral submucous fibrosis, serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase

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4924 Faith-Based Humanitarian Intervention: The Catholic Church and the Biafran Refugee Crisis during the Nigerian Civil War, 1967-1970

Authors: Edidiong Ekefre

Abstract:

The Nigerian civil war was one of the foremost postcolonial conflicts in West Africa that attracted a serious humanitarian problem due to an unprecedented refugee crisis that affected the Biafran region. Due to its geographical location, the Nigerian government used blockades and starvation as a weapon of war against the Biafran. Faced with strong opposition from the Nigerian government, most humanitarian organizations withdrew their support from Biafra, whose death toll was rapidly growing daily due to starvation, malnutrition, and chronic ailment. Thus, the Catholic Church, a major Christian denomination in Biafra, had to see it as its religious obligation to support the humanitarian needs of the Biafrans. Thus, applying oral history methods with archival research, this paper examines the humanitarian activities of the Catholic Church in the Nigerian civil war. It contends that the Catholic Church was a key player in the humanitarian aspect of the Nigerian civil war. The paper concludes that faith-based humanitarian intervention in the Biafran refugee crisis was essential for the survival of the Biafran war-stricken women and children.

Keywords: refugee crisis, humanitarian intervention, Caritas International, blockades, airlifts, starvation

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4923 Plastic Degradation Activity of Bacillus Sp. Isolated from the Gut of Plastic-Fed Yellow Mealworm

Authors: Najat El-Kurdi, Sherif Hammad, Mohamed Ghazi, Sahar El-Shatoury, Khaled Zakaria

Abstract:

The increasing number of plastic production and its importance to humanity in daily life made it a headache to the planet earth. The persistence of plastic wastes in the environment formed a serious problem. They are prominent with their capability to resist microbial degradation for decades. Thus, it was crucial to find ways to eliminate the plastics without depending on conventional recycling methods, which causes the formation of more hazardous compounds and doubles the problem. In this paper, mealworms were fed with a mixture of plastic wastes such as plastic bags, Styrofoam, PE foam, and plastic tarpaulins film as the sole food source for a month. Frass was collected at the end of the test and examined using FTIR analysis. Also, the gut bacteria were isolated and identified using 16S rRNA. The results show the mineralization of plastic in the frass of plastic-fed worms when compared to control. The 16S rRNA and the BLAST analysis showed that the obtained isolate belongs to the genus Bacillus Sp especially Bacillus subtilis. Phylogenetic analysis showed their relatedness to the other Bacillus species in the NCBI database.

Keywords: mealworm, waste management, plastic-degrading bacteria, gut microbiome, Bacillus sp

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4922 Boundary Conditions for 2D Site Response Analysis in OpenSees

Authors: M. Eskandarighadi, C. R. McGann

Abstract:

It is observed from past experiences of earthquakes that local site conditions can significantly affect the strong ground motion characteristicssuch as frequency content, amplitude, and duration of seismic waves. The most common method for investigating site response is one-dimensional seismic site response analysis. The infinite horizontal length of the model and the homogeneous characteristic of the soil are crucial assumptions of this method. One boundary condition that can be used in the sides is tying the sides horizontally for vertical 1D wave propagation. However, 1D analysis cannot account for the 2D nature of wave propagation in the condition where the soil profile is not fully horizontal or has heterogeneity within layers. Therefore, 2D seismic site response analysis can be used to take all of these limitations into account for a better understanding of local site conditions. Different types of boundary conditions can be appliedin 2D site response models, such as tied boundary condition, massive columns, and free-field boundary condition. The tied boundary condition has been used in 1D analysis, which is useful for 1D wave propagation. Employing two massive columns at the sides is another approach for capturing the 2D nature of wave propagation. Free-field boundary condition can simulate the free-field motion that would exist far from the domain of interest. The goal for free-field boundary condition is to minimize the unwanted reflection from sides. This research focuses on the comparison between these methods with examples and discusses the details and limitations of each of these boundary conditions.

Keywords: boundary condition, free-field, massive columns, opensees, site response analysis, wave propagation

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4921 Temporal Change in Bonding Strength and Antimicrobial Effect of a Zirconia after Nonthermal Atmospheric Pressure Plasma Treatment

Authors: Chan Park, Sang-Won Park, Kwi-Dug Yun, Hyun-Pil Lim

Abstract:

Purpose: Plasma treatment under various conditions has been studied to increase the bonding strength and surface sterilization of dental ceramic materials. We assessed the evolution of the shear bond strength (SBS) and antimicrobial effect of nonthermal atmospheric pressure plasma (NTAPP) treatment over time. Methods: Presintered zirconia specimens were manufactured as discs (diameter: 15 mm, height: 2 mm) after final sintering. The specimens then received a 30-min treatment with argon gas (Ar², 99.999%; 10 L/min) using an NTAPP device. Five post-treatment intervals were evaluated: control (no treatment), P0 (within 1 h), P1 (24 h), P2 (48 h), and P3 (72 h). This study investigated the surface characteristics, SBS of two different resin cement (RelyXTM U200 self-adhesive resin cement, Panavia F2.0 methacryloyloxydecyl dihydrogen phosphate (MDP)-based resin cement), and Streptococcus mutans biofilm formation. Results: The SBS of RelyXTM U200 increased significantly (p < 0.05) within 2 days following plasma treatment (P0, P1, P2). For Panavia F 2.0, a significant decrease (p < 0.05) was detected only in the group that had undergone cementation immediately after plasma treatment (P0). S. mutans adhesion decreased significantly (p < 0.05) within 2 days of plasma treatment (P0, P1, P2) compared to the control group. The P0 group displayed a lower biofilm thickness than the P1 and P2 groups (p < 0.05). Conclusions: After NTAPP treatment of zirconia, the effects on bonding strength and antimicrobial growth persist for a limited duration. The effect of NTAPP treatment on bonding strength depends on the resin cement.

Keywords: NTAPP, SBS, antimicrobial effect, zirconia

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4920 Modelling Biological Treatment of Dye Wastewater in SBR Systems Inoculated with Bacteria by Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Yasaman Sanayei, Alireza Bahiraie

Abstract:

This paper presents a systematic methodology based on the application of artificial neural networks for sequencing batch reactor (SBR). The SBR is a fill-and-draw biological wastewater technology, which is specially suited for nutrient removal. Employing reactive dye by Sphingomonas paucimobilis bacteria at sequence batch reactor is a novel approach of dye removal. The influent COD, MLVSS, and reaction time were selected as the process inputs and the effluent COD and BOD as the process outputs. The best possible result for the discrete pole parameter was a= 0.44. In orderto adjust the parameters of ANN, the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm was employed. The results predicted by the model were compared to the experimental data and showed a high correlation with R2> 0.99 and a low mean absolute error (MAE). The results from this study reveal that the developed model is accurate and efficacious in predicting COD and BOD parameters of the dye-containing wastewater treated by SBR. The proposed modeling approach can be applied to other industrial wastewater treatment systems to predict effluent characteristics. Note that SBR are normally operated with constant predefined duration of the stages, thus, resulting in low efficient operation. Data obtained from the on-line electronic sensors installed in the SBR and from the control quality laboratory analysis have been used to develop the optimal architecture of two different ANN. The results have shown that the developed models can be used as efficient and cost-effective predictive tools for the system analysed.

Keywords: artificial neural network, COD removal, SBR, Sphingomonas paucimobilis

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4919 Woodcast is Ecologically Sound and Tolerated by a Majority of Patients

Authors: R. Hassan, J. Duncombe, E. Darke, A. Dias, K. Anderson, R. G. Middleton

Abstract:

NHS England has set itself the task of delivering a “Net Zero” National Health service by 2040. It is incumbent upon all health care practioners to work towards this goal. Orthopaedic surgeons are no exception. Distal radial fractures are the most common fractures sustained by the adult population. However, studies are shortcoming on individual patient experience. The aim of this study was to assess the patient’s satisfaction and outcomes with woodcast used in the conservative management of distal radius fractures. For all patients managed with woodcast in our unit, we undertook a structured questionnaire that included the Patient Rated Wrist Evaluation (PRWE) score, The EQ-5D-5L score and the pain numerical score at the time of injury and six weeks after. 30 patients were initially managed with woodcast. 80% of patients tolerated woodcast for the full duration of their treatment. Of these, 20% didn’t tolerate woodcast and had their casts removed within 48 hours. Of the remaining, 79.1% were satisfied about woodcast comfort, 66% were very satisfied about woodcast weight, 70% were satisfied with temperature and sweatiness, 62.5% were very satisfied about the smell/odour, and 75% were satisfied about the level of support woodcast provided. During their treatment, 83.3% of patients rated their pain as five or less. For those who completed their treatment in woodcast, none required any further intervention or utilised the open appointment because of ongoing wrist problems. In conclusion, when woodcast is tolerated, patients’ satisfaction and outcome levels were good. However, we acknowledged 20% of patients in our series were not able to tolerate woodacst, Therefore, we suggest a comparison between the widely used synthetic plaster of Paris casting and woodcast to come in order.

Keywords: distal radius fractures, ecological cast, sustainability, woodcast

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4918 Regional Response of Crop Productivity to Global Warming - A Case Study of the Heat Stress and Cold Stress on UK Rapeseed Crop Over 1961-2020

Authors: Biao Hu, Mark E. J. Cutler, Alexandra C. Morel

Abstract:

Global climate change introduces both opportunities and challenges for crop productivity, with differences in temperature stress across latitudes and crop types, one of the most important meteorological factors impacting crop productivity. The development and productivity of crops are particularly impacted when temperatures occur outwith their preferred ranges, which has implications for global agri-food sector. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of heat stress and cold stress on UK arable lands for rapeseed cropping between 1961 and 2020, using a 1 km spatial resolution temperature dataset. Stress indices, including heat stress index (fHS) defined as the ratio of “Tmax - Tcrit_h” to “Tlimit_h - Tcrit_h” where Tmax, Tcrit_h and Tlimit_h represent the daily maximum temperature (°C), critical high temperature threshold (°C) and limiting high temperature threshold (°C) of rapeseed crop respectively; cold degree days (CDD) as the difference between daily Tmin (minimum temperature) and Tcrit_l (critical low temperature threshold); and a normalized rapeseed production loss index (fRPL) as the product of fHS and attainable rapeseed yield in the same land pixel were established. The values of fHS and CDD, percentages of days experiencing each stress and fRPL were investigated. Results found increasing fHS and the areas impacted by heat stress during flowering (from April to May) and reproductive (from April to July) stages over time, with the mean fHS being negatively correlated with latitude. This pattern of increased heat stress agrees with previous research on rapeseed cropping, which have been noted at global scale in response to changes in climate. The decreasing number of CDD and frequency of cold stress suggest cold stress decreased during flowering, vegetative (from September to March next year) and reproductive stages, and the magnitude of cold stress in the south of the UK was smaller to that compared to northern regions over the studied periods. The decreasing CDD matches observed declining cold stress of global rapeseed and of other crops such as rice in the northern hemisphere. Notably, compared with previous studies which mainly tracked the trends of heat stress and cold stress individually, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the rate of their changes and found heat stress of rapeseed crops in the UK was increasing at a faster rate than cold stress, which was seen to decrease during flowering. The increasing values of fRPL, with statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between regions of the UK, suggested an increasing loss in rapeseed due to heat stress in the studied period. The largest increasing trend in heat stress was observed in South-eastern England, where a decreasing cold stress was taking place. While the present study observed a relatively slowly increasing heat stress, there is a worrying trend of increasing heat stress for rapeseed cropping into the future, as the cases of other main rapeseed cropping systems in the northern hemisphere including China, European counties, the US, and Canada. This study demonstrates the negative impact of global warming on rapeseed cropping, highlighting the adaptation and mitigations strategies for sustainable rapeseed cultivation across the globe.

Keywords: rapeseed, UK, heat stress, cold stress, global climate change, spatiotemporal analysis, production loss index

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4917 The Impact of Ultrasonicator on the Vertical and Horizontal Mixing Profile of Petrol-Bioethanol

Authors: D. Nkazi, S. E. Iyuke, J. Mulopo

Abstract:

Increasing global energy demand as well as air quality concerns have in recent years led to the search for alternative clean fuels to replace fossil fuels. One such alternative is the blending of petrol with ethanol, which has numerous advantages such ethanol’s ability to act as oxygenate thus reducing the carbon monoxide emissions from the exhaust of internal combustion engines of vehicles. However, the hygroscopic nature of ethanol is a major concern in obtaining a perfectly homogenized petrol-ethanol fuel. This problem has led to the study of ways of homogenizing the petrol-ethanol mixtures. During the blending process, volumes fraction of ethanol and petrol were studied with respect to the depth within the storage container to confirm homogenization of the blend and time of storage. The results reveal that the density of the mixture was constant. The binodal curve of the ternary diagram shows an increase of homogeneous region, indicating an improved of interaction between water and petrol. The concentration distribution in the reactor showed proof of cavitation formation since in both directions, the variation of concentration with both time and distance was found to be oscillatory. On comparing the profiles in both directions, the concentration gradient, diffusion flux, and energy and diffusion rates were found to be higher in the vertical direction compared to the horizontal direction. It was therefore concluded that ultrasonication creates cavitation in the mixture which enhances mass transfer and mixing of ethanol and petrol. The horizontal direction was found to be the diffusion rate limiting step which proposed that the blender should have a larger height to diameter ratio. It is, however, recommended that further studies be done on the rate-limiting step so as to have actual dimensions of the reactor.

Keywords: ultrasonication, petrol, ethanol, concentration

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4916 Subway Ridership Estimation at a Station-Level: Focus on the Impact of Bus Demand, Commercial Business Characteristics and Network Topology

Authors: Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park

Abstract:

The primary purpose of this study is to develop a methodological framework to predict daily subway ridership at a station-level and to examine the association between subway ridership and bus demand incorporating commercial business facility in the vicinity of each subway station. The socio-economic characteristics, land-use, and built environment as factors may have an impact on subway ridership. However, it should be considered not only the endogenous relationship between bus and subway demand but also the characteristics of commercial business within a subway station’s sphere of influence, and integrated transit network topology. Regarding a statistical approach to estimate subway ridership at a station level, therefore it should be considered endogeneity and heteroscedastic issues which might have in the subway ridership prediction model. This study focused on both discovering the impacts of bus demand, commercial business characteristics, and network topology on subway ridership and developing more precise subway ridership estimation accounting for its statistical bias. The spatial scope of the study covers entire Seoul city in South Korea and includes 243 stations with the temporal scope set at twenty-four hours with one-hour interval time panels each. The data for subway and bus ridership was collected Seoul Smart Card data from 2015 and 2016. Three-Stage Least Square(3SLS) approach was applied to develop daily subway ridership model as capturing the endogeneity and heteroscedasticity between bus and subway demand. Independent variables incorporating in the modeling process were commercial business characteristics, social-economic characteristics, safety index, transit facility attributes, and dummies for seasons and time zone. As a result, it was found that bus ridership and subway ridership were endogenous each other and they had a significantly positive sign of coefficients which means one transit mode could increase another transportation mode’s ridership. In other words, two transit modes of subway and bus have a mutual relationship instead of the competitive relationship. The commercial business characteristics are the most critical dimension among the independent variables. The variables of commercial business facility rate in the paper containing six types; medical, educational, recreational, financial, food service, and shopping. From the model result, a higher rate in medical, financial buildings, shopping, and food service facility lead to increment of subway ridership at a station, while recreational and educational facility shows lower subway ridership. The complex network theory was applied for estimating integrated network topology measures that cover the entire Seoul transit network system, and a framework for seeking an impact on subway ridership. The centrality measures were found to be significant and showed a positive sign indicating higher centrality led to more subway ridership at a station level. The results of model accuracy tests by out of samples provided that 3SLS model has less mean square error rather than OLS and showed the methodological approach for the 3SLS model was plausible to estimate more accurate subway ridership. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (2017R1C1B2010175).

Keywords: subway ridership, bus ridership, commercial business characteristic, endogeneity, network topology

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