Search results for: risk score

Authors: C. Sridawruang

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Young people today has sexual activities differing from those of earlier generations, in that teenagers are likely to have multiple partners, and are frequently in short-term relationships or with partners that are not well known to them. The proportion of teenage mothers in Thailand has increased. Young people were not specifically addressed during the overall very successful HIV-prevention campaigns. Because of this missed opportunity, they are still unaware of the risk of unsafe sexual behavior. Aims: To describe the reproductive health care services in perspectives of rural Thai teenagers Methods: This survey was one part of a mixed method approach taken using survey and focus groups with 439 teenagers aged 12-18 years in 5 villages, Udon Thani, Thailand. The standard questionnaire survey had been used for collecting data. The numeric data was checked and analyzed by using descriptive statistics. Results: Most teenager respondents stated that they do not know where sexual reproductive health services provided for them. Most teenagers felt difficult to access and talk with health staff about sexual related issues. They stated that discussing, or consulting with health providers might not be safe. Teenagers might lose opportunities to access and get advice from health care services. The mean knowledge score of contraception and condom reproductive was 6.34 from a total score 11. Most teenagers especially girls expressed a need for counseling services and reported a need for telephone services. Conclusions: The need of appropriate information focusing on sexual relationships and contraception should be designed to help young people make wise decisions and there should be set health care services for Thai teenagers to make sure that teenagers could access easily. Health care providers need to be trained to improve their knowledge, attitudes and skills in reproductive health care practices for Thai teenagers.

Keywords: youth friendly health services, rural, Thai, teenagers

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Authors: Longqing Li

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The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting

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Authors: Susan Thurstans, Natalie Sessions, Carmel Dolan, Kate Sadler, Bernardette Cichon, Shelia Isanaka, Dominique Roberfroid, Heather Stobagh, Patrick Webb, Tanya Khara

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For many years, wasting and stunting have been viewed as separate conditions without clear evidence supporting this distinction. In 2014, the Emergency Nutrition Network (ENN) examined the relationship between wasting and stunting and published a report highlighting the evidence for linkages between the two forms of undernutrition. This systematic review aimed to update the evidence generated since this 2014 report to better understand the implications for improving child nutrition, health and survival. Following PRISMA guidelines, this review was conducted using search terms to describe the relationship between wasting and stunting. Studies related to children under five from low- and middle-income countries that assessed both ponderal growth/wasting and linear growth/stunting, as well as the association between the two, were included. Risk of bias was assessed in all included studies using SIGN checklists. 45 studies met the inclusion criteria- 39 peer reviewed studies, 1 manual chapter, 3 pre-print publications and 2 published reports. The review found that there is a strong association between the two conditions whereby episodes of wasting contribute to stunting and, to a lesser extent, stunting leads to wasting. Possible interconnected physiological processes and common risk factors drive an accumulation of vulnerabilities. Peak incidence of both wasting and stunting was found to be between birth and three months. A significant proportion of children experience concurrent wasting and stunting- Country level data suggests that up to 8% of children under 5 may be both wasted and stunted at the same time, global estimates translate to around 16 million children. Children with concurrent wasting and stunting have an elevated risk of mortality when compared to children with one deficit alone. These children should therefore be considered a high-risk group in the targeting of treatment. Wasting, stunting and concurrent wasting and stunting appear to be more prevalent in boys than girls and it appears that concurrent wasting and stunting peaks between 12- 30 months of age with younger children being the most affected. Seasonal patterns in prevalence of both wasting and stunting are seen in longitudinal and cross sectional data and in particular season of birth has been shown to have an impact on a child’s subsequent experience of wasting and stunting. Evidence suggests that the use of mid-upper-arm circumference combined with weight-for-age Z-score might effectively identify children most at risk of near-term mortality, including those concurrently wasted and stunted. Wasting and stunting frequently occur in the same child, either simultaneously or at different moments through their life course. Evidence suggests there is a process of accumulation of nutritional deficits and therefore risk over the life course of a child demonstrates the need for a more integrated approach to prevention and treatment strategies to interrupt this process. To achieve this, undernutrition policies, programmes, financing and research must become more unified.

Keywords: Concurrent wasting and stunting, Review, Risk factors, Undernutrition

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Authors: Rahmoune Abdelhaq

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Systemic risk is a key concern for central banks charged with safeguarding overall financial stability. In this work, we investigate how systemic risk is affected by the structure of the financial system. We construct banking systems that are composed of a number of banks that are connected by interbank linkages. We then vary the key parameters that define the structure of the financial system — including its level of capitalization, the degree to which banks are connected, the size of interbank exposures and the degree of concentration of the system — and analyses the influence of these parameters on the likelihood of contagious (knock-on) defaults. First, we find that the better-capitalized banks are, the more resilient is the banking system against contagious defaults and this effect is non-linear. Second, the effect of the degree of connectivity is non-monotonic, that is, initially a small increase in connectivity increases the contagion effect; but after a certain threshold value, connectivity improves the ability of a banking system to absorb shocks. Third, the size of interbank liabilities tends to increase the risk of knock-on default, even if banks hold capital against such exposures. Fourth, more concentrated banking systems are shown to be prone to larger systemic risk, all else equal. In an extension to the main analysis, we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tier) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out. This paper also discusses why bank risk management is needed to get the optimal one.

Keywords: financial stability, contagion, liquidity risk, optimal risk

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Authors: Jana Atteah, Wid Jan, Yara AlHibshi, Rahaf AlRougi

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Anyword is an AI copywriting tool that helps marketers create effective campaigns for specific audiences. It offers a wide range of templates for various platforms, brand voice guidelines, and valuable analytics insights. Anyword is used by top global companies and has been recognized as one of the "Fastest Growing Products" in the 2023 software awards. A recent study examined the utilization and impact of AI-powered writing tools, specifically focusing on the adoption of AI in writing pursuits and the use of the Anyword platform. The results indicate that a majority of respondents (52.17%) had not previously used Anyword, but those who had were generally satisfied with the platform. Notable productivity improvements were observed among 13% of the participants, while an additional 34.8% reported a slight increase in productivity. A majority (47.8%) maintained a neutral stance, suggesting that their productivity remained unaffected. Only a minimal percentage (4.3%) claimed that their productivity did not improve with the usage of Anyword AI. In terms of the quality of written content generated, the participants responded positively. Approximately 91% of participants gave Anyword AI a score of 5 or higher, with roughly 17% giving it a perfect score. A small percentage (approximately 9%) gave a low score between 0-2. The mode result was a score of 7, indicating a generally positive perception of the quality of content generated using Anyword AI. These findings suggest that AI can contribute to increased productivity and positively influence the quality of written content. Further research and exploration of AI tools in writing pursuits are warranted to fully understand their potential and limitations.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, marketing platforms, productivity, user interface

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Authors: Ezeabasili Chibuike Patrick

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The complex situation of construction industries in Nigeria and the risk of failures involved includes cost overrun, time overrun, Corruption, Government influence, Subcontractor challenges, Political influence and Instability, Cultural differences, Human resources deficiencies, cash flow Challenges, foreign exchange issues, inadequate design, Safety, low productivity, late payment, Quality control issues, project management issues, Environmental issues, Force majeure Competition amongst others has made the industry prone to risk and failures. Good project management remains effective in improving decision-making, which minimizes these risk events. This study was done to address these project risks and good decision-making to avert them. A mixed-method approach to research was used to do this study. Data collected by questionnaires and interviews on thirty-two (32) construction professionals was used in analyses to aid the knowledge and management of risks that were identified. The study revealed that there is no good risk management expertise in Nigeria. Also, that the economic/political situation and the recent COVID-19 pandemic has added to the risk and poor management strategies. The contingency theory and cost has therefore surfaced to be the most strategic management method used to reduce these risk issues and they seem to be very effective.

Keywords: strategies, risk management, contingency theory, Nigeria

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Authors: Khaled Alkadamani

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Using the simultaneous equations model, this paper examines the impact of capital requirements on bank risk-taking during the recent financial crisis. It also explores the relationship between capital and risk decisions and the impact of economic instability on this relationship. By analyzing the data of 20 Islamic commercial banks between 2004 and 2014 from four Middle East countries, the study concludes a positive effect of regulatory pressure on bank capital in Saudi Arabia and UAE and a negative effect in Jordan and Kuwait. Moreover, the results show a negative impact of regulatory pressure on bank risk taking in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and UAE. The findings reveal also that banks close to the minimum regulatory capital requirements improve their capital adequacy by increasing their capital and decreasing their risk taking. Furthermore, the results show that economic crisis negatively affects bank risk changes, suggesting that banks react to the impact of uncertainty by reducing their risk taking. Finally, the estimations show a negative correlation between banks profitability and capital adequacy ratio (CAR), implying that as more capital is set aside as a buffer for banks safety; it affects the performance of Islamic banks.

Keywords: bank capital, bank regulation, crisis, Islamic banks, risk taking

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Authors: Knol Hester, Müller Swantje, Danchenko Natalya

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Objective: Falls in older people cause an autonomy loss and result in an economic burden. LCare is an AI-based application to manage fall risks. The study's aim was to assess the effect of LCare use on patient outcomes in nursing homes in Germany. Methods: LCare identifies and monitors fall risks through a 3D-gait analysis and a digital questionnaire, resulting in tailored recommendations on fall prevention. A study was conducted with AOK Baden-Württemberg (01.09.2019- 31.05.2021) in 16 care facilities. Assessments at baseline and follow-up included: a fall risk score; falls (baseline: fall history in the past 12 months; follow-up: a fall record since the last analysis); fall-related injuries and hospitalizations; gait speed; fear of falling; psychological stress; nurses experience on app use. Results: 94 seniors were aged 65-99 years at the initial analysis (average 84±7 years); 566 mobility analyses were carried out in total. On average, the fall risk was reduced by 17.8 % as compared to the baseline (p<0.05). The risk of falling decreased across all subgroups, including a trend in dementia patients (p=0.06), constituting 43% of analyzed patients, and patients with walking aids (p<0.05), constituting 76% of analyzed patients. There was a trend (p<0.1) towards fewer falls and fall-related injuries and hospitalizations (baseline: 23 seniors who fell, 13 injury consequences, 9 hospitalizations; follow-up: 14 seniors who fell, 2 injury consequences, 0 hospitalizations). There was a 16% improvement in gait speed (p<0.05). Residents reported less fear of falling and psychological stress by 38% in both outcomes (p<0.05). 81% of nurses found LCare effective. Conclusions: In the presented study, the use of LCare app was associated with a reduction of fall risk among nursing home residents, improvement of health-related outcomes, and a trend toward reduction in injuries and hospitalizations. LCare may help to improve senior resident care and save healthcare costs.

Keywords: falls, digital healthcare, falls prevention, nursing homes, seniors, AI, digital assessment

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Authors: J. R. Wang, W. Y. Cheng, J. S. Yeh, S. W. Chen, Y. M. Ferng, J. H. Yang, W. S. Hsu, C. Shih

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To understand the risk for dry storage concrete casks in the cask loading, transfer, and storage phase, the purpose of this research is to establish the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analysis methodology for dry storage concrete casks by using SAPHIRE 8 code. This analysis methodology is used to perform the study of Taiwan nuclear power plants (NPPs) dry storage system. The process of research has three steps. First, the data of the concrete casks and Taiwan NPPs are collected. Second, the PRA analysis methodology is developed by using SAPHIRE 8. Third, the PRA analysis is performed by using this methodology. According to the analysis results, the maximum risk is the multipurpose canister (MPC) drop case.

Keywords: PRA, dry storage, concrete cask, SAPHIRE

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Authors: Abdessalem Abbassi, Ahlem Dakhlaoui, Lota D. Tamini

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This article analyses management of hydropower dams within two different industrial structures: monopolistic and oligopolistic; when hydroelectricity producers are risk averse and face demand uncertainty. In each type of market structure we determine the water release path in closed-loop equilibrium. We show how a monopoly can manage its hydropower dams by additional pumping or storage depending on the relative abundance of water between different regions to smooth the effect of uncertainty on electricity prices. In the oligopolistic case with symmetric rates of risk aversion, we determine the conditions under which the relative scarcity (abundance) of water in the dam of a hydroelectric operator can favor additional strategic pumping (storage) in its competitor’s dams. When there is asymmetry of the risk aversion coefficient, the firm’s hydroelectricity production increases as its competitor’s risk aversion increases, if and only if the average recharge speed of the competitor’s dam exceeds a certain threshold, which is an increasing function of its average water inflows.

Keywords: asymmetric risk aversion, closed-loop Cournot competition, electricity wholesale market, hydropower dams

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Authors: Hatem A. El-Mezayen, Ahmed Abdelmajeed, Fatehya Metwally, Usama Elsaly, Salwa Atef

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Tumor metastasis involves the dissemination of malignant cells into the basement membrane and vascular system contributes to the circulating pool of these markers. In this context our aim has been focused on development of a non-invasive. Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) represent a unique liquid biopsy carrying comprehensive biological information of the primary tumor. Herein, we sought to develop a novel score based on the combination of the most significant CTCs biomarkers with and routine laboratory tests for accurate detection of metastatic breast cancer. Methods: Cytokeratin 18 (CK18), Cytokeratin 19 (CK19), and CA15.3 were assayed in metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients (75), non-MBC patients (50) and healthy control (20). Results: Areas under receiving operating curve (AUCs) were calculated and used for construction on novel score. A novel score named MBC-CTCs = CA15.3 (U/L) × 0.08 + CK 18 % × 2.9 + CK19 × 3.1– 510. That function correctly classified 87% of metastatic breast cancer at cut-off value = 0.55. (i.e great than 0.55 indicates patients with metastatic breast cancer and less than 0.55 indicates patients with non-metastatic breast cancer). Conclusion: MBC-CTCs is a novel, non-invasive and simple can applied to discriminate patients with metastatic breast cancer.

Keywords: metastatic breast cancer, circulating tumor cells, cytokeratin, EpiCam

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Authors: O. J. Akinsola, Yinan Zheng, Rose Anorlu, F. T. Ogunsola, Lifang Hou, Robert Leo-Murphy

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Cervical Cancer (CC) is the 2nd most common cancer among women living in low and middle-income countries, with no associated symptoms during formative periods. With the advancement and innovative medical research, there are numerous preventive measures being utilized, but the incidence of cervical cancer cannot be truncated with the application of only screening tests. The mortality associated with this invasive cervical cancer can be nipped in the bud through the important role of early-stage detection. This study research selected an array of different top features selection techniques which was aimed at developing a model that could validly diagnose the risk factors of cervical cancer. A retrospective clinic-based cohort study was conducted on 178 HIV-associated cervical cancer patients in Lagos University teaching Hospital, Nigeria (U54 data repository) in April 2022. The outcome measure was the automated prediction of the HIV-associated cervical cancer cases, while the predictor variables include: demographic information, reproductive history, birth control, sexual history, cervical cancer screening history for invasive cervical cancer. The proposed technique was assessed with R and Python programming software to produce the model by utilizing the classification algorithms for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer disease. Four machine learning classification algorithms used are: the machine learning model was split into training and testing dataset into ratio 80:20. The numerical features were also standardized while hyperparameter tuning was carried out on the machine learning to train and test the data. Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). Some fitting features were selected for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer diseases from selected characteristics in the dataset using the contribution of various selection methods for the classification cervical cancer into healthy or diseased status. The mean age of patients was 49.7±12.1 years, mean age at pregnancy was 23.3±5.5 years, mean age at first sexual experience was 19.4±3.2 years, while the mean BMI was 27.1±5.6 kg/m2. A larger percentage of the patients are Married (62.9%), while most of them have at least two sexual partners (72.5%). Age of patients (OR=1.065, p<0.001**), marital status (OR=0.375, p=0.011**), number of pregnancy live-births (OR=1.317, p=0.007**), and use of birth control pills (OR=0.291, p=0.015**) were found to be significantly associated with HIV-associated cervical cancer. On top ten 10 features (variables) considered in the analysis, RF claims the overall model performance, which include: accuracy of (72.0%), the precision of (84.6%), a recall of (84.6%) and F1-score of (74.0%) while LR has: an accuracy of (74.0%), precision of (70.0%), recall of (70.0%) and F1-score of (70.0%). The RF model identified 10 features predictive of developing cervical cancer. The age of patients was considered as the most important risk factor, followed by the number of pregnancy livebirths, marital status, and use of birth control pills, The study shows that data mining techniques could be used to identify women living with HIV at high risk of developing cervical cancer in Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries.

Keywords: associated cervical cancer, data mining, random forest, logistic regression

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Authors: Khalid Al Saleh, Najlaa AlSayed

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Background: Palliative care is changing from just ‘end of life care’ to care delivered earlier in the disease course. Metanalysis showed that Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) is associated with increased length of survival. The Palliative Care Center (PCC) in Kuwait is the only stand-alone center in Eastern Mediterranean Region with a capacity of 92 beds. We compared clinical characteristics between patients referred from the Specialized Cancer Center and general hospitals in Kuwait to PCC. Method: A cross Sectional survey was conducted since the opening of PCC in January 2011 to June 2013. Patients’ data on demographics, type of the cancer, PPS score and referring hospital were collected and analyzed. Results: Total number of the patients was 142. Mean age was 61.05±14.79 years, 66 patients (47.1%) were males and 74 (52.9%) were females. The most common cancers in males were lung (n=18, 27.3%) followed by head and neck cancers (n=8, 12.1%) and brain tumors (n=7, 10.6%) while in females, the most common cancers were breast cancer (n=12, 16.7%) followed by ovarian cancer (n=10, 13.9%) and Cancer Colon (n=8, 11.1%). Patients with PPS score 30% were 27.9% (n=39), 40% in 40.7% (n=57), and 50% in 17.1% (n=24) respectively. Patients referred from the Specialized Cancer Center had significantly higher portion of patients with PPS score > 30% (73.4%, n=94), compared to patients coming from general hospitals (33.3%, n=4), P value= 0.007. Conclusion: There is significant difference in PPS scores between patients referred from the Specialized Cancer Center compared to patients referred from general hospitals. We encourage that all cancer patients should be treated in Specialized Cancer Centers and earlier involvement of Palliative Care Centers to achieve better survival. Training workshops are needed for health care professionals working in general hospitals to raise awareness about earlier referral of patients to palliative care services.

Keywords: palliative care, kuwait, performance scale differences, pps score, specialized hospitals

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Authors: Manar Aslan, Ayse Yildiz

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The study was conducted descriptively to assess their hospital institutionalization of upper and mid-level managers of 18 hospitals affiliated to Public Hospitals Association. In its simplest form institutionalization is whatever the subject matter, is dominated by the rules of articulated and determined behavior in all kinds of business, interaction, and communication. Hospital service is a type of service carried out chained together. It should not be forgotten that this kind of services is carried out without barrier, and who and what to do with definite lines, hospital management is a process, and this process can be achieved through institutionalization. With the establishment of the Public Hospitals Unions in Turkey, all the state hospitals in the provinces have been gathered under this roof. One of the goals is to establish control mechanisms to ensure that hospitals reach pre-determined financial, medical, and administrative standards. In this way, the preparations for the institutionalization of units and hospital enterprises will be completed. The data of the study were collected by institutionalization management attitude scale (cronbach alpha: 0.98) of composed of 5 sub-dimensions and 52 questions in 18 hospitals’ managers (N=310) in the largest province in Turkey. The results of the study revealed that the total score taken by managers at the institutionalization scale was 200.80, and this was close to the maximum score. In addition, it was determined that the difference between the mean score of the scale and its sub-dimensions with the gender, the hospitals, and the management position.

Keywords: institutionalization, hospital, manager, evaluation

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Authors: Kavita Khoiwal, Vatsla Dadhwal, K. Aparna Sharma, Dipika Deka, Plabani Sarkar

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Introduction: About 2.4 million (1.93 - 3.04 million) people are living with HIV/AIDS in India. Of all HIV infections, 39% (9,30,000) are among women. 5.4% of infections are from mother to child transmission (MTCT), 25,000 infected children are born every year. Besides the risk of mother to child transmission of HIV, these women are at risk of the higher adverse pregnancy outcome. The objectives of the study were to compare the obstetric and neonatal outcome in women who are HIV positive with low-risk HIV negative women and effect of antiretroviral drugs on preterm birth and IUGR. Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective case record analysis of 212 HIV-positive women delivering between 2002 to 2015, in a tertiary health care centre which was compared with 238 HIV-negative controls. Women who underwent medical termination of pregnancy and abortion were excluded from the study. Obstetric outcome analyzed were pregnancy induced hypertension, HIV positive intrauterine growth restriction, preterm birth, anemia, gestational diabetes and intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy. Neonatal outcome analysed were birth weight, apgar score, NICU admission and perinatal transmission.HIV-positiveOut of 212 women, 204 received antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prevent MTCT, 27 women received single dose nevirapine (sdNVP) or sdNVP tailed with 7 days of zidovudine and lamivudine (ZDV + 3TC), 15 received ZDV, 82 women received duovir and 80 women received triple drug therapy depending upon the time period of presentation. Results: Mean age of 212 HIV positive women was 25.72+3.6 years, 101 women (47.6 %) were primigravida. HIV positive status was diagnosed during pregnancy in 200 women while 12 women were diagnosed prior to conception. Among 212 HIV positive women, 20 (9.4 %) women had preterm delivery (< 37 weeks), 194 women (91.5 %) delivered by cesarean section and 18 women (8.5 %) delivered vaginally. 178 neonates (83.9 %) received exclusive top feeding and 34 neonates (16.03 %) received exclusive breast feeding. When compared to low risk HIV negative women (n=238), HIV positive women were more likely to deliver preterm (OR 1.27), have anemia (OR 1.39) and intrauterine growth restriction (OR 2.07). Incidence of pregnancy induced hypertension, diabetes mellitus and ICP was not increased. Mean birth weight was significantly lower in HIV positive women (2593.60+499 gm) when compared to HIV negative women (2919+459 gm). Complete follow up is available for 148 neonates till date, rest are under evaluation. Out of these 7 neonates found to have HIV positive status. Risk of preterm birth (P value = 0.039) and IUGR (P value = 0.739) was higher in HIV positive women who did not receive any ART during pregnancy than women who received ART. Conclusion: HIV positive pregnant women are at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. Multidisciplinary team approach and use of highly active antiretroviral therapy can optimize the maternal and perinatal outcome.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy, HIV infection, IUGR, preterm birth

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac J. W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of history of obesity for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, family history, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eleven studies of family history and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that family history of obesity is a significant risk factor of overweight and /or obesity in offspring; risk for offspring overweight and/or obesity associated with family history varies depending of the family members included in the analysis; and when family history of obesity is present, the offspring are at greater risk for developing obesity or overweight. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: childhood obesity, overweight, family history, risk factors, meta-analysis

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Authors: Jacek Kabzinski, Karolina Przybylowska, Lukasz Dziki, Adam Dziki, Ireneusz Majsterek

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The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing from year to year. Despite intensive research CRC etiology remains unknown. Studies suggest that at the basis of the process of carcinogenesis can lie reduced efficiency of DNA repair mechanisms, often caused by polymorphisms in DNA repair genes. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between gene polymorphisms Pro242Arg of PolB gene and Arg780His of Lig3 gene and modulation of the risk of colorectal cancer in the Polish population. Determination of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis process and predicting increased risk will allow qualifying patients to increased risk group and including them in preventive program. We used blood collected from 110 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The control group consisted of equal number of healthy people. Genotyping was performed by TaqMan method. The obtained results indicate that the genotype 780Arg/His of Lig3 gene is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. On the basis of these results, we conclude that Lig3 gene polymorphism Arg780His may be associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer.

Keywords: BER, colorectal cancer, PolB, Lig3, polymorphisms

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Authors: Arezoo Fallahi

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Introduction: Exposure to second-hand smoke is an important global health problem and threatens the health of people, especially children and women. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of education based on the Health Belief Model on preventive behaviors of exposure to secondhand smoke in women. Materials and Methods: This experimental study was performed in 2023in Sanandaj, west of Iran. Seventy-four people were selected by simple random sampling and divided into an intervention group (37 people) and a control group (37 people). Data collection tools included demographic characteristics and a second-hand smoke exposure questionnaire based on the Health Beliefs Model. The training in the intervention group was conducted in three one-hour sessions in the comprehensive health service centers in the form of lectures, pamphlets, and group discussions. Data were analyzed using SPSS software version 21 and statistical tests such as correlation, paired t-test, and independent t-test. Results: The intervention and control groups were homogeneous before education. They were similar in terms of mean scores of the Health Belief Model. However, after an educational intervention, some of the scores increased, including the mean perceived sensitivity score (from 17.62±2.86 to 19.75±1.23), perceived severity score (28.40±4.45 to 31.64±2), perceived benefits score (27.27±4.89 to 31.94±2.17), practice score (32.64±4.68 to 36.91±2.32) perceived barriers from 26.62±5.16 to 31.29±3.34, guide for external action (from 17.70±3.99 to 22/89 ±1.67), guide for internal action from (16.59±2.95 to 1.03±18.75), and self-efficacy (from 19.83 ±3.99 to 23.37±1.43) (P <0.05). Conclusion: The educational intervention designed based on the Health Belief Model in women was effective in performing preventive behaviors against exposure to secondhand smoke.

Keywords: women, health behaviour, smoke, belive

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Authors: Atiwit Sinyoo, Sekh Thanprasertsuk, Sithiporn Agthong, Pasakorn Watanatada, Shaun Peter Qureshi, Saknan Bongsebandhu-Phubhakdi

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Background: Since the SARS-CoV-2 virus became extensively disseminated throughout the world, online learning has become one of the most hotly debated topics in educational reform. While some studies have already shown the advantage of online learning, there are still questions concerning how online learning affects students’ learning behavior and academic achievement when each student learns in a different way. Hence, we aimed to develop a guide for preclinical medical students to avoid drawbacks and get benefits from online learning that possibly a double-edged sword. Methods: We used a multiple-choice questionnaire to evaluate the learning behavior of second-year Thai medical students in the neuroscience course. All traditional face-to-face lecture classes were video-recorded and promptly posted to the online learning platform throughout this course. Students could pick and choose whatever classes they wanted to attend, and they may use online learning as often as they wished. Academic performance was evaluated as summative score, spot exam score and pre-post-test improvement. Results: More frequently students used online learning platform, the less they attended lecture classes (P = 0.035). High proactive online learners (High PO) who were irregular attendee (IrA) had significantly lower summative scores (P = 0.026), spot exam score (P = 0.012) and pre-post-test improvement (P = 0.036). In the meanwhile, conditional attendees (CoA) who only attended classes with attendance check had significantly higher summative score (P = 0.025) and spot exam score (P = 0.001) if they were in the High PO group. Conclusions: The benefit and drawbacks edges of using an online learning platform were demonstrated in our research. Based on this double-edged sword effect, we believe that online learning is a valuable learning strategy, but students must carefully plan their study schedule to gain the “benefit edge” meanwhile avoiding its “drawback edge”.

Keywords: academic performance, assessment, attendance, online learning, preclinical medical students

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Authors: Nida Amin, Fahad Tanveer, Hina Shabbir, Ayesha Saeed, Attiqa Riaz

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The gradual progression of corneal disorder keratoconus significantly impairs eyesight and quality of life, increasing the likelihood of depression. Using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) at the AL-Ibrahim Eye Hospital in Karachi, this study aimed to evaluate the occurrence of depression and anxiety symptoms in patients with keratoconus and to suggest better treatment. A descriptive-analytical study was conducted at Al-Ibrahim Eye Hospital Karachi from March to April 2022, and patients diagnosed with symptomatic keratoconus were recruited using a non-probability convenient sampling technique. After obtaining written informed consent from patients, keratoconus severity was assessed using visual acuity and corneal topography. Symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression (HADS) Scale. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Spearman correlation coefficient. Of the 108 participants, 60 (56%) were female and 48 (44%) were male. Using the HADS scale, 44 (40.7%) patients were classified as normal with a HADS score of (0-7), 23 (21.3%) as borderline with a HADS score of (8-10) and 41 (38%) patients were diagnosed with anxiety and depression with a HADS score of (11-21). Depression and anxiety are highly prevalent among patients in advanced stages of the disease.

Keywords: cornea, keratoconus, anxiety, depression, corneal topography, mental health

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Authors: Aizati N. A. Daud, Jorieke E. H. Bergman, Wilhelmina S. Kerstjens-Frederikse, Pieter Van Der Vlies, Eelko Hak, Rolf M. F. Berger, Henk Groen, Bob Wilffert

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Prenatal use of SRIs was previously associated with Congenital Heart Anomalies (CHA). The aim of the study is to explore whether pharmacogenetics plays a role in this teratogenicity using a gene-environment interaction study. A total of 33 case-mother dyads and 2 mother-only (children deceased) registered in EUROCAT Northern Netherlands were included in a case-only study. Five case-mother dyads and two mothers-only were exposed to SRIs (paroxetine=3, fluoxetine=2, venlafaxine=1, paroxetine and venlafaxine=1) in the first trimester of pregnancy. The remaining 28 case-mother dyads were not exposed to SRIs. Ten genes that encode the enzymes or proteins important in determining fetal exposure to SRIs or its mechanism of action were selected: CYPs (CYP1A2, CYP2C9, CYP2C19, CYP2D6), ABCB1 (placental P-glycoprotein), SLC6A4 (serotonin transporter) and serotonin receptor genes (HTR1A, HTR1B, HTR2A, and HTR3B). All included subjects were genotyped for 58 genetic variations in these ten genes. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the interaction odds ratio (OR) between genetic variations and SRIs exposure on the risk of CHA. Due to low phenotype frequencies of CYP450 poor metabolizers among exposed cases, the OR cannot be calculated. For ABCB1, there was no indication of changes in the risk of CHA with any of the ABCB1 SNPs in the children and their mothers. Several genetic variations of the serotonin transporter and receptors (SLC6A4 5-HTTLPR and 5-HTTVNTR, HTR1A rs1364043, HTR1B rs6296 & rs6298, HTR3B rs1176744) were associated with an increased risk of CHA, but with too limited sample size to reach statistical significance. For SLC6A4 genetic variations, the mean genetic scores of the exposed case-mothers tended to be higher than the unexposed mothers (2.5 ± 0.8 and 1.88 ± 0.7, respectively; p=0.061). For SNPs of the serotonin receptors, the mean genetic score for exposed cases (children) tended to be higher than the unexposed cases (3.4 ± 2.2, and 1.9 ± 1.6, respectively; p=0.065). This study might be among the first to explore the potential gene-environment interaction between pharmacogenetic determinants and SRIs use on the risk of CHA. With small sample sizes, it was not possible to find a significant interaction. However, there were indications for a role of serotonin receptor polymorphisms in fetuses exposed to SRIs on fetal risk of CHA which warrants further investigation.

Keywords: gene-environment interaction, heart defects, pharmacogenetics, serotonin reuptake inhibitors, teratogenicity

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Authors: Edson Vengesai

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Derivative products have become essential instruments in portfolio diversification, price discovery, and, most importantly, risk hedging. Derivatives are complex instruments; their valuation, volatility implications, and real impact on the underlying assets' behaviour are not well understood. Little is documented empirically, with conflicting conclusions on how these instruments affect firm risk exposures. Given the growing interest in using derivatives in risk management and portfolio engineering, this study examines the practical impact of derivative usage on the underlying stock price exposure and systematic risk. The paper uses data from South African listed firms. The study employs GARCH models to understand the effect of derivative uses on conditional stock volatility. The GMM models are used to estimate the effect of derivatives use on stocks' systematic risk as measured by Beta and on the total risk of stocks as measured by the standard deviation of returns. The results provide evidence on whether derivatives use is instrumental in reducing stock returns' systematic and total risk. The results are subjected to numerous controls for robustness, including financial leverage, firm size, growth opportunities, and macroeconomic effects.

Keywords: derivatives use, hedging, volatility, stock price exposure

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Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: Veronica Sri Lestari, Sitti Nurani Sirajuddin, Kasmiyati Kasim

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The purpose of this research was to know the attitude of beef cattle farmers toward bio security practices. This research was conducted in Barru regency, South Sulawesi province, Indonesia, in 2014. Thirty beef cattle farmers were selected through random sampling. Primary and secondary data were collected through report, observation and deep interview by using questionnaire. Bio security practices consisted of 35 questions. Every answer of the question was scored based on three categories: score 1 (not important), score 2 (important) and 3 (very important). The results of this research showed that the attitude of beef cattle farmers toward bio security practices was categorized as important.

Keywords: attitude, beef cattle, biosecurity, farmers

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Authors: D. Moser, D. Pinto, A. Cipriano

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A Disaster Management System (DMS) for countries with different disasters is very important. In the world different disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruption, fire or other natural or man-made disasters occurs and have an effect on the population. It is also possible that two or more disasters arisen at the same time, this means to handle multi-risk situations. To handle such a situation a Decision Support System (DSS) based on multiagents is a suitable architecture. The most known DMSs deal with one (in the case of an earthquake-tsunami combination with two) disaster and often with one particular disaster. Nevertheless, a DSS helps for a better realtime response. Analyze the existing systems in the literature and expand them for multi-risk disasters to construct a well-organized system is the proposal of our work. The here shown work is an approach of a multi-risk system, which needs an architecture, and well-defined aims. In this moment our study is a kind of case study to analyze the way we have to follow to create our proposed system in the future.

Keywords: decision support system, disaster management system, multi-risk, multiagent system

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Authors: Olusola Joseph Adesina, Adebayo Adeyinka Salako

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The study adopted a descriptive research design. Two hundred (200) in-school adolescents were purposely selected in Afijio Local Government Area of Oyo State. Two hypotheses were also raised to pilot the study. The researchers developed an instrument which was validated by psychological experts, the instrument tagged counseling psychology and sexual risk behavior questionnaire (CPSRBQ)(r = 0.78). The results were analysed using t-test at 0.05 level of significance. The result showed that there is a significant relationship between counseling psychology and sexual risk behavior of in-school adolescents. It was also noticed that there is a significant difference in the sexual risk behavior of male and female adolescents. Based on the findings, it was recommended that more counselors are still needed in Nigeria schools. There is need for restructuring Nigeria Curriculum most especially on sex education and related diseases. Lastly, adolescents should be more exposed to seminars on HIV/AIDS, sex education enlightenment programmes and marital counseling.

Keywords: counseling psychology, sexual behavior, risk and adolescent, cognitive sciences

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Authors: Fatma Abdel Moneim Al Tawil

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This study was undertaken to evaluate an educational program regarding scientific writing and presentation skills among university students. This interventional study used a one-group, pretest/posttest design and was conducted in Al Jouf University among four colleges in Saudi Arabia. Baseline students’ assessment was conducted for developing educational program. Interventional, one group, pretest/posttest study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the educational program. Three parts evaluation sheet with total scores of 30 was used for 113 students for the development of the program and 52 students for test pretest phase. Wilcoxon signed ranks showed statistically significant improvement in the combined overall program skills score from a median of 56.7 pre to a median of 86.7 post, (z = 6.231, p < 0.001). When compared to preprogram intervention, post interventions 51.9 % of students achieve excellent performance. While pre intervention no students (0.0 %) achieve this score. Regarding to scientific writing skills, Wilcoxon signed ranks showed statistically significant improvement in the score from a median of 60 pre to a median of 90 post, (z = 6.122, p < 0.001). None of students had excellent performance changed to 73.1%. Regarding to oral presentation skills, Wilcoxon signed ranks showed statistically significant improvement in the score from a median of 50 pre to a median of 80 post, (z = 6.153, p < 0.001). None of students had excellent performance changed to 48.1%. Such educational program needs to be incorporated into classroom delivery of the students’ curriculum. Scientific writing skills book needed to be developed to be recommended as a basic educational strategy for all university faculties.

Keywords: scientific writing, presentation skills, university students, educational program

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Authors: Deepa Shokeen, Bani Tamber Aeri

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Non-communicable diseases in general and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in particular are a big cause of concern worldwide especially in fast growing economy like India. CVD is one of the leading causes of deaths in India. Risk factors for cardiovascular disease are now significant in all populations. At least one-third of all CVD is attributable to five risk factors: tobacco use, alcohol use, high blood pressure, high cholesterol and obesity. Methods: This article aspires to collate data gathered by relevant studies conducted after year 2000 and provide an overview of the prevalence of CVD in India and worldwide. Results: Studies show an increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in India as compared to other developing and developed countries with recent trends showing incidence in younger age group. It is seen to affect almost all sections of the society from young to old and most affluent to least affluent. High blood pressure, high cholesterol, tobacco and alcohol use, as well as low vegetable and fruit intake, already figure among the top risk factors. Conclusion: The prevalence of risk factors associated with CVD has increased and will keep on increasing in India as indicated by studies in the last decade and as predicted by the projections for future estimates. Some major risks are modifiable in that they can be prevented, treated, and controlled. There are considerable health benefits at all ages, for both men and women, in stopping smoking, reducing cholesterol and blood pressure, eating a healthy diet and increasing physical activity.

Keywords: prevalence, cardiovascular disease, India, risk factors

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Micaela Demichela

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During the last decades, a number of food crises such as Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), Mad-Cow disease, Dioxin in chicken food, Food-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), have certainly inflicted the reliability of the food industry. Consequently, the trend in applying different scientific methods of risk assessment in food safety has obtained more attentions in the academic and practice. However, lack of practical approach considering entire food supply chain is tangible in the academic literature. In this regard, this paper aims to apply risk assessment tool (FMEA) with integration of Human Factor along the entire supply chain of food production and test the method in a case study of Diary production, and analyze its results.

Keywords: FMEA, food supply chain, risk assessment, human factor

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Authors: Maha Mourad

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Higher education in any competitive European economy should serve the new information society by increasing the supply of good quality education services and by creating good international brands in the international higher education market. Hence, continuous risk management techniques through higher educational reforms programs became one of the top priorities within the European Union to control the quality of higher education. Risk is higher education is studies by several researchers who agreed that the risk in higher education has a direct influence on continuity of quality education and research contribution. The focus of this research is to highlights the Internal Quality Assurance (IQA) activities in the Polish higher education system as a risk management tool used to control the quality of education. This paper presents a qualitative empirical analysis in 5 different universities in Poland. In addition, it aims to help in finding global practical and create benchmark for policy makers concerning the risk management techniques based on the Polish experience.

Keywords: education development, quality assurance, sustainability, european higher education

Procedia PDF Downloads 468