Search results for: predictive analytics
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1291

Search results for: predictive analytics

811 Improved Computational Efficiency of Machine Learning Algorithm Based on Evaluation Metrics to Control the Spread of Coronavirus in the UK

Authors: Swathi Ganesan, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Gayathri Karthick

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The COVID-19 crisis presents a substantial and critical hazard to worldwide health. Since the occurrence of the disease in late January 2020 in the UK, the number of infected people confirmed to acquire the illness has increased tremendously across the country, and the number of individuals affected is undoubtedly considerably high. The purpose of this research is to figure out a predictive machine learning archetypal that could forecast COVID-19 cases within the UK. This study concentrates on the statistical data collected from 31st January 2020 to 31st March 2021 in the United Kingdom. Information on total COVID cases registered, new cases encountered on a daily basis, total death registered, and patients’ death per day due to Coronavirus is collected from World Health Organisation (WHO). Data preprocessing is carried out to identify any missing values, outliers, or anomalies in the dataset. The data is split into 8:2 ratio for training and testing purposes to forecast future new COVID cases. Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, and linear regression algorithms are chosen to study the model performance in the prediction of new COVID-19 cases. From the evaluation metrics such as r-squared value and mean squared error, the statistical performance of the model in predicting the new COVID cases is evaluated. Random Forest outperformed the other two Machine Learning algorithms with a training accuracy of 99.47% and testing accuracy of 98.26% when n=30. The mean square error obtained for Random Forest is 4.05e11, which is lesser compared to the other predictive models used for this study. From the experimental analysis Random Forest algorithm can perform more effectively and efficiently in predicting the new COVID cases, which could help the health sector to take relevant control measures for the spread of the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, machine learning, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, linear regression, support vector machine, random forest

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810 Resource Framework Descriptors for Interestingness in Data

Authors: C. B. Abhilash, Kavi Mahesh

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Human beings are the most advanced species on earth; it's all because of the ability to communicate and share information via human language. In today's world, a huge amount of data is available on the web in text format. This has also resulted in the generation of big data in structured and unstructured formats. In general, the data is in the textual form, which is highly unstructured. To get insights and actionable content from this data, we need to incorporate the concepts of text mining and natural language processing. In our study, we mainly focus on Interesting data through which interesting facts are generated for the knowledge base. The approach is to derive the analytics from the text via the application of natural language processing. Using semantic web Resource framework descriptors (RDF), we generate the triple from the given data and derive the interesting patterns. The methodology also illustrates data integration using the RDF for reliable, interesting patterns.

Keywords: RDF, interestingness, knowledge base, semantic data

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
809 Experience Marketing and Behavioral Intentions: An Exploratory Study Applied to Middle-Aged and Senior Pickleball Participated in Taiwan

Authors: Yi Yau, Chia-Huei Hsiao

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The elderly society is already a problem of globalization, and Taiwan will enter a super-aged society in 2025. Therefore, how to improve the health of the elderly and reduce the government's social burden is an important issue at present. Exercise is the best medical care, and it is also a healthy activity for people to live a healthy life. Facing the super-aged society in the future, it is necessary to attract them to participate in sports voluntarily through sports promotion so that they can live healthy and independent lives and continue to participate in society to enhance the well-being of the elderly. Experiential marketing and sports participation are closely related. In the past, it was mainly aimed at consumer behavior at the commercial level. At present, there are not many study objects focusing on participant behavior and middle-aged and elderly people. Therefore, this study takes the news emerged sport-Pickleball that has been loved by silver-haired people in recent years as the research sport. It uses questionnaire surveys and intentional sampling methods. The purpose of the group is to understand the middle-aged and elderly people’s experience and behavior patterns of Pickleball, explore the relationship between experiential marketing and participants' intentional behaviors, and predict which aspects of experiential marketing will affect their intentional behaviors. The findings showed that experience marketing is highly positively correlated with behavioral intentions, and experience marketing has a positive predictive power for behavioral intentions. Among them, "ACT" and "SENSE" are predictive variables that effectively predict behavioral intentions. This study proves the feasibility of pickleball for middle-aged and senior sports. It is recommended that in the future curriculum planning, try to simplify the exercise steps, increase the chances of contact with the sphere, and enhance the sensory experience to enhance the sense of success during exercise, and then generate exercise motivation, and ultimately change the exercise mode or habits and promote health.

Keywords: newly emerged sports, middle age and elderly, health promotion, ACT, SENSE

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808 Application of Deep Learning Algorithms in Agriculture: Early Detection of Crop Diseases

Authors: Manaranjan Pradhan, Shailaja Grover, U. Dinesh Kumar

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Farming community in India, as well as other parts of the world, is one of the highly stressed communities due to reasons such as increasing input costs (cost of seeds, fertilizers, pesticide), droughts, reduced revenue leading to farmer suicides. Lack of integrated farm advisory system in India adds to the farmers problems. Farmers need right information during the early stages of crop’s lifecycle to prevent damage and loss in revenue. In this paper, we use deep learning techniques to develop an early warning system for detection of crop diseases using images taken by farmers using their smart phone. The research work leads to building a smart assistant using analytics and big data which could help the farmers with early diagnosis of the crop diseases and corrective actions. The classical approach for crop disease management has been to identify diseases at crop level. Recently, ImageNet Classification using the convolutional neural network (CNN) has been successfully used to identify diseases at individual plant level. Our model uses convolution filters, max pooling, dense layers and dropouts (to avoid overfitting). The models are built for binary classification (healthy or not healthy) and multi class classification (identifying which disease). Transfer learning is used to modify the weights of parameters learnt through ImageNet dataset and apply them on crop diseases, which reduces number of epochs to learn. One shot learning is used to learn from very few images, while data augmentation techniques are used to improve accuracy with images taken from farms by using techniques such as rotation, zoom, shift and blurred images. Models built using combination of these techniques are more robust for deploying in the real world. Our model is validated using tomato crop. In India, tomato is affected by 10 different diseases. Our model achieves an accuracy of more than 95% in correctly classifying the diseases. The main contribution of our research is to create a personal assistant for farmers for managing plant disease, although the model was validated using tomato crop, it can be easily extended to other crops. The advancement of technology in computing and availability of large data has made possible the success of deep learning applications in computer vision, natural language processing, image recognition, etc. With these robust models and huge smartphone penetration, feasibility of implementation of these models is high resulting in timely advise to the farmers and thus increasing the farmers' income and reducing the input costs.

Keywords: analytics in agriculture, CNN, crop disease detection, data augmentation, image recognition, one shot learning, transfer learning

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807 Simon Says: What Should I Study?

Authors: Fonteyne Lot

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SIMON (Study capacities and Interest Monitor is a freely accessible online self-assessment tool that allows secondary education pupils to evaluate their interests and capacities in order to choose a post-secondary major that maximally suits their potential. The tool consists of two broad domains that correspond with two general questions pupils ask: 'What study fields interest me?' and 'Am I capable to succeed in this field of study?'. The first question is addressed by a RIASEC-type interest inventory that links personal interests to post-secondary majors. Pupils are provided with a personal profile and an overview of majors with their degree of congruence. The output is dynamic: respondents can manipulate their score and they can compare their results to the profile of all fields of study. That way they are stimulated to explore the broad range of majors. To answer whether pupils are capable of succeeding in a preferred major, a battery of tests is provided. This battery comprises a range of factors that are predictive of academic success. Traditional predictors such as (educational) background and cognitive variables (mathematical and verbal skills) are included. Moreover, non-cognitive predictors of academic success (such as 'motivation', 'test anxiety', 'academic self-efficacy' and 'study skills') are assessed. These non-cognitive factors are generally not included in admission decisions although research shows they are incrementally predictive of success and are less discriminating. These tests inform pupils on potential causes of success and failure. More important, pupils receive their personal chances of success per major. These differential probabilities are validated through the underlying research on academic success of students. For example, the research has shown that we can identify 22 % of the failing students in psychology and educational sciences. In this group, our prediction is 95% accurate. SIMON leads more students to a suitable major which in turn alleviates student success and retention. Apart from these benefits, the instrument grants insight into risk factors of academic failure. It also supports and fosters the development of evidence-based remedial interventions and therefore gives way to a more efficient use of means.

Keywords: academic success, online self-assessment, student retention, vocational choice

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806 A Modular Framework for Enabling Analysis for Educators with Different Levels of Data Mining Skills

Authors: Kyle De Freitas, Margaret Bernard

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Enabling data mining analysis among a wider audience of educators is an active area of research within the educational data mining (EDM) community. The paper proposes a framework for developing an environment that caters for educators who have little technical data mining skills as well as for more advanced users with some data mining expertise. This framework architecture was developed through the review of the strengths and weaknesses of existing models in the literature. The proposed framework provides a modular architecture for future researchers to focus on the development of specific areas within the EDM process. Finally, the paper also highlights a strategy of enabling analysis through either the use of predefined questions or a guided data mining process and highlights how the developed questions and analysis conducted can be reused and extended over time.

Keywords: educational data mining, learning management system, learning analytics, EDM framework

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805 The Use of Emerging Technologies in Higher Education Institutions: A Case of Nelson Mandela University, South Africa

Authors: Ayanda P. Deliwe, Storm B. Watson

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The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the established practices of higher education institutions (HEIs). Most higher education institutions worldwide had to shift from traditional face-to-face to online learning. The online environment and new online tools are disrupting the way in which higher education is presented. Furthermore, the structures of higher education institutions have been impacted by rapid advancements in information and communication technologies. Emerging technologies should not be viewed in a negative light because, as opposed to the traditional curriculum that worked to create productive and efficient researchers, emerging technologies encourage creativity and innovation. Therefore, using technology together with traditional means will enhance teaching and learning. Emerging technologies in higher education not only change the experience of students, lecturers, and the content, but it is also influencing the attraction and retention of students. Higher education institutions are under immense pressure because not only are they competing locally and nationally, but emerging technologies also expand the competition internationally. Emerging technologies have eliminated border barriers, allowing students to study in the country of their choice regardless of where they are in the world. Higher education institutions are becoming indifferent as technology is finding its way into the lecture room day by day. Academics need to utilise technology at their disposal if they want to get through to their students. Academics are now competing for students' attention with social media platforms such as WhatsApp, Snapchat, Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, and others. This is posing a significant challenge to higher education institutions. It is, therefore, critical to pay attention to emerging technologies in order to see how they can be incorporated into the classroom in order to improve educational quality while remaining relevant in the work industry. This study aims to understand how emerging technologies have been utilised at Nelson Mandela University in presenting teaching and learning activities since April 2020. The primary objective of this study is to analyse how academics are incorporating emerging technologies in their teaching and learning activities. This primary objective was achieved by conducting a literature review on clarifying and conceptualising the emerging technologies being utilised by higher education institutions, reviewing and analysing the use of emerging technologies, and will further be investigated through an empirical analysis of the use of emerging technologies at Nelson Mandela University. Findings from the literature review revealed that emerging technology is impacting several key areas in higher education institutions, such as the attraction and retention of students, enhancement of teaching and learning, increase in global competition, elimination of border barriers, and highlighting the digital divide. The literature review further identified that learning management systems, open educational resources, learning analytics, and artificial intelligence are the most prevalent emerging technologies being used in higher education institutions. The identified emerging technologies will be further analysed through an empirical analysis to identify how they are being utilised at Nelson Mandela University.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, emerging technologies, learning analytics, learner management systems, open educational resources

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804 Monitoring Large-Coverage Forest Canopy Height by Integrating LiDAR and Sentinel-2 Images

Authors: Xiaobo Liu, Rakesh Mishra, Yun Zhang

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Continuous monitoring of forest canopy height with large coverage is essential for obtaining forest carbon stocks and emissions, quantifying biomass estimation, analyzing vegetation coverage, and determining biodiversity. LiDAR can be used to collect accurate woody vegetation structure such as canopy height. However, LiDAR’s coverage is usually limited because of its high cost and limited maneuverability, which constrains its use for dynamic and large area forest canopy monitoring. On the other hand, optical satellite images, like Sentinel-2, have the ability to cover large forest areas with a high repeat rate, but they do not have height information. Hence, exploring the solution of integrating LiDAR data and Sentinel-2 images to enlarge the coverage of forest canopy height prediction and increase the prediction repeat rate has been an active research topic in the environmental remote sensing community. In this study, we explore the potential of training a Random Forest Regression (RFR) model and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model, respectively, to develop two predictive models for predicting and validating the forest canopy height of the Acadia Forest in New Brunswick, Canada, with a 10m ground sampling distance (GSD), for the year 2018 and 2021. Two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models, one for 2018 and one for 2021, are used as ground truth to train and validate the RFR and CNN predictive models. To evaluate the prediction performance of the trained RFR and CNN models, two new predicted canopy height maps (CHMs), one for 2018 and one for 2021, are generated using the trained RFR and CNN models and 10m Sentinel-2 images of 2018 and 2021, respectively. The two 10m predicted CHMs from Sentinel-2 images are then compared with the two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models for accuracy assessment. The validation results show that the mean absolute error (MAE) for year 2018 of the RFR model is 2.93m, CNN model is 1.71m; while the MAE for year 2021 of the RFR model is 3.35m, and the CNN model is 3.78m. These demonstrate the feasibility of using the RFR and CNN models developed in this research for predicting large-coverage forest canopy height at 10m spatial resolution and a high revisit rate.

Keywords: remote sensing, forest canopy height, LiDAR, Sentinel-2, artificial intelligence, random forest regression, convolutional neural network

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803 Early Impact Prediction and Key Factors Study of Artificial Intelligence Patents: A Method Based on LightGBM and Interpretable Machine Learning

Authors: Xingyu Gao, Qiang Wu

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Patents play a crucial role in protecting innovation and intellectual property. Early prediction of the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) patents helps researchers and companies allocate resources and make better decisions. Understanding the key factors that influence patent impact can assist researchers in gaining a better understanding of the evolution of AI technology and innovation trends. Therefore, identifying highly impactful patents early and providing support for them holds immeasurable value in accelerating technological progress, reducing research and development costs, and mitigating market positioning risks. Despite the extensive research on AI patents, accurately predicting their early impact remains a challenge. Traditional methods often consider only single factors or simple combinations, failing to comprehensively and accurately reflect the actual impact of patents. This paper utilized the artificial intelligence patent database from the United States Patent and Trademark Office and the Len.org patent retrieval platform to obtain specific information on 35,708 AI patents. Using six machine learning models, namely Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest Regression, XGBoost Regression, LightGBM Regression, Support Vector Machine Regression, and K-Nearest Neighbors Regression, and using early indicators of patents as features, the paper comprehensively predicted the impact of patents from three aspects: technical, social, and economic. These aspects include the technical leadership of patents, the number of citations they receive, and their shared value. The SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) metric was used to explain the predictions of the best model, quantifying the contribution of each feature to the model's predictions. The experimental results on the AI patent dataset indicate that, for all three target variables, LightGBM regression shows the best predictive performance. Specifically, patent novelty has the greatest impact on predicting the technical impact of patents and has a positive effect. Additionally, the number of owners, the number of backward citations, and the number of independent claims are all crucial and have a positive influence on predicting technical impact. In predicting the social impact of patents, the number of applicants is considered the most critical input variable, but it has a negative impact on social impact. At the same time, the number of independent claims, the number of owners, and the number of backward citations are also important predictive factors, and they have a positive effect on social impact. For predicting the economic impact of patents, the number of independent claims is considered the most important factor and has a positive impact on economic impact. The number of owners, the number of sibling countries or regions, and the size of the extended patent family also have a positive influence on economic impact. The study primarily relies on data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office for artificial intelligence patents. Future research could consider more comprehensive data sources, including artificial intelligence patent data, from a global perspective. While the study takes into account various factors, there may still be other important features not considered. In the future, factors such as patent implementation and market applications may be considered as they could have an impact on the influence of patents.

Keywords: patent influence, interpretable machine learning, predictive models, SHAP

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802 Clinical Value of 18F-FDG-PET Compared with CT Scan in the Detection of Nodal and Distant Metastasis in Urothelial Carcinoma or Bladder Cancer

Authors: Mohammed Al-Zubaidi, Katherine Ong, Pravin Viswambaram, Steve McCombie, Oliver Oey, Jeremy Ong, Richard Gauci, Ronny Low, Dickon Hayne

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Objective: Lymph node involvement along with distant metastasis in a patient with invasive bladder cancer determines the disease survival, therefeor, it is an essential determinant of the therapeutic management and outcome. This retrospective study aims to determine the accuracy of FDG PET scan in detecting lymphatic involvement and distant metastatic urothelial cancer compared to conventional CT staging. Method: A retrospective review of 76 patients with UC or BC who underwent surgery or confirmatory biopsy that was staged with both CT and 18F-FDG-PET (up to 8 weeks apart) between 2015 and 2020. Fifty-sevenpatients (75%) had formal pelvic LN dissection or biopsy of suspicious metastasis. 18F-FDG-PET reports for positive sites were qualitative depending on SUV Max. On the other hand, enlarged LN by RECIST criteria 1.1 (>10 mm) and other qualitative findings suggesting metastasis were considered positive in CT scan. Histopathological findings from surgical specimens or image-guided biopsies were considered the gold standard in comparison to imaging reports. 18F-FDG-avid or enlarged pelvic LNs with surgically proven nodal metastasis were considered true positives. Performance characteristics of 18F-FDG-PET and CT, including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (PPV), were calculated. Results: Pelvic LN involvement was confirmed histologically in 10/57 (17.5%) patients. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of CT for detecting pelvic LN metastases were 41.17% (95% CI:18-67%), 100% (95% CI:90-100%) 100% (95% CI:59-100%) and 78.26% (95% CI:64-89%) respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 18F-FDG-PET for detecting pelvic LN metastases were 62.5% (95% CI:35-85%), 83.78% (95% CI:68-94%), 62.5% (95% CI:35-85%), and 83.78% (95% CI:68-94%) respectively. Pre-operative staging with 18F-FDG-PET identified the distant metastatic disease in 9/76 (11.8%) patients who were occult on CT. This retrospective study suggested that 18F-FDG-PET may be more sensitive than CT for detecting pelvic LN metastases. 7/76 (9.2%) patients avoided cystectomy due to 18F-FDG-PET diagnosed metastases that were not reported on CT. Conclusion: 18F-FDG-PET is more sensitive than CT for pelvic LN metastases, which can be used as the standard modality of bladder cancer staging, as it may change the treatment by detecting lymph node metastasis that was occult in CT. Further research involving randomised controlled trials comparing the diagnostic yield of 18F-FDG-PET and CT in detecting nodal and distant metastasis in UC or BC is warranted to confirm our findings.

Keywords: FDG PET, CT scan, urothelial cancer, bladder cancer

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801 Predicting Loss of Containment in Surface Pipeline using Computational Fluid Dynamics and Supervised Machine Learning Model to Improve Process Safety in Oil and Gas Operations

Authors: Muhammmad Riandhy Anindika Yudhy, Harry Patria, Ramadhani Santoso

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Loss of containment is the primary hazard that process safety management is concerned within the oil and gas industry. Escalation to more serious consequences all begins with the loss of containment, starting with oil and gas release from leakage or spillage from primary containment resulting in pool fire, jet fire and even explosion when reacted with various ignition sources in the operations. Therefore, the heart of process safety management is avoiding loss of containment and mitigating its impact through the implementation of safeguards. The most effective safeguard for the case is an early detection system to alert Operations to take action prior to a potential case of loss of containment. The detection system value increases when applied to a long surface pipeline that is naturally difficult to monitor at all times and is exposed to multiple causes of loss of containment, from natural corrosion to illegal tapping. Based on prior researches and studies, detecting loss of containment accurately in the surface pipeline is difficult. The trade-off between cost-effectiveness and high accuracy has been the main issue when selecting the traditional detection method. The current best-performing method, Real-Time Transient Model (RTTM), requires analysis of closely positioned pressure, flow and temperature (PVT) points in the pipeline to be accurate. Having multiple adjacent PVT sensors along the pipeline is expensive, hence generally not a viable alternative from an economic standpoint.A conceptual approach to combine mathematical modeling using computational fluid dynamics and a supervised machine learning model has shown promising results to predict leakage in the pipeline. Mathematical modeling is used to generate simulation data where this data is used to train the leak detection and localization models. Mathematical models and simulation software have also been shown to provide comparable results with experimental data with very high levels of accuracy. While the supervised machine learning model requires a large training dataset for the development of accurate models, mathematical modeling has been shown to be able to generate the required datasets to justify the application of data analytics for the development of model-based leak detection systems for petroleum pipelines. This paper presents a review of key leak detection strategies for oil and gas pipelines, with a specific focus on crude oil applications, and presents the opportunities for the use of data analytics tools and mathematical modeling for the development of robust real-time leak detection and localization system for surface pipelines. A case study is also presented.

Keywords: pipeline, leakage, detection, AI

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800 Multiscale Modeling of Damage in Textile Composites

Authors: Jaan-Willem Simon, Bertram Stier, Brett Bednarcyk, Evan Pineda, Stefanie Reese

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Textile composites, in which the reinforcing fibers are woven or braided, have become very popular in numerous applications in aerospace, automotive, and maritime industry. These textile composites are advantageous due to their ease of manufacture, damage tolerance, and relatively low cost. However, physics-based modeling of the mechanical behavior of textile composites is challenging. Compared to their unidirectional counterparts, textile composites introduce additional geometric complexities, which cause significant local stress and strain concentrations. Since these internal concentrations are primary drivers of nonlinearity, damage, and failure within textile composites, they must be taken into account in order for the models to be predictive. The macro-scale approach to modeling textile-reinforced composites treats the whole composite as an effective, homogenized material. This approach is very computationally efficient, but it cannot be considered predictive beyond the elastic regime because the complex microstructural geometry is not considered. Further, this approach can, at best, offer a phenomenological treatment of nonlinear deformation and failure. In contrast, the mesoscale approach to modeling textile composites explicitly considers the internal geometry of the reinforcing tows, and thus, their interaction, and the effects of their curved paths can be modeled. The tows are treated as effective (homogenized) materials, requiring the use of anisotropic material models to capture their behavior. Finally, the micro-scale approach goes one level lower, modeling the individual filaments that constitute the tows. This paper will compare meso- and micro-scale approaches to modeling the deformation, damage, and failure of textile-reinforced polymer matrix composites. For the mesoscale approach, the woven composite architecture will be modeled using the finite element method, and an anisotropic damage model for the tows will be employed to capture the local nonlinear behavior. For the micro-scale, two different models will be used, the one being based on the finite element method, whereas the other one makes use of an embedded semi-analytical approach. The goal will be the comparison and evaluation of these approaches to modeling textile-reinforced composites in terms of accuracy, efficiency, and utility.

Keywords: multiscale modeling, continuum damage model, damage interaction, textile composites

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799 A Comparative Study: Comparison of Two Different Fluorescent Stains -Auramine and Rhodamine- with Ehrlich-Ziehl-Neelsen, Kinyoun Staining, and Culture in the Determination of Acid Resistant Bacilli

Authors: Recep Keşli, Hayriye Tokay, Cengiz Demir, İsmail Ceyhan

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Objective: In many countries, tuberculosis (TB) is still one of the most important diseases. Tuberculosis is among top 10 causes of death worldwide. The early diagnosis of active tuberculosis still depends on the presence of acid resistant bacilli (ARB) in stained smears. In this study, we aimed to investigate the diagnostic performances of Erlich Ziehl Neelsen (EZN), Kinyoun and two different fluorescent stains. Methods: The specimens were obtained from the patients who applied to Chest Diseases Departments of Ankara Atatürk Chest Diseases and Thoracic Surgery Training and Research Hospital, and Afyon Kocatepe University, ANS Research and Practice Hospital. The study was carried out in the Medical Microbiology Laboratory, School of Medicine, Afyon Kocatepe University. All the non-sterile specimens were homogenized and decontaminated according to the EUCAST instructions. Samples were inoculated onto the Löwenstein-Jensen agars (bio-Merieux Marcy l'Etoile, France) and then incubated at 37˚C, for 40 days. Four smears were prepared from each specimen. Slides were stained with commercial EZN (BD, Sparks, USA), Kinyoun (SALUBRIS Istanbul, Turkey), Auramine (SALUBRIS Istanbul, Turkey) and Rhodamine (SALUBRIS Istanbul, Turkey) kit. While EZN and Kinyoun stainings were examined by light microscope, Auramine and Rhodamine slides were examined by fluorescence microscopy. Results: A total of 158 respiratory system samples (sputum, broncho alveolar lavage fluid…etc) were enrolled into the study. A hundred and two of the samples that processed were found as culture positive. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive, and negative predictive values were detected as 100%, 67.5%, 73.5%, and 100% for EZN, 100%, 70.9%, 77.4%, and 100% for Kinyoun, 100%,77.8%, 84.3%, 100% for Auramine, and 100%, 80% , 86.3%, and 100% for Rhodamine respectively. Conclusions: According to our study auramine and rhodamine staining methods showed the best diagnostic performance among the four investigated staining methods. In conclusion, the fluorochrome staining method may be accepted as the most reliable, rapid and useful method for diagnosis of the mycobacterial infections truly.

Keywords: acid resistant bacilli (ARB), auramine, Ehrlich-Ziehl-Neelsen (EZN), Kinyoun, Rhodamine

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798 Modeling of Crack Growth in Railway Axles under Static Loading

Authors: Zellagui Redouane, Bellaouar Ahmed, Lachi Mohammed

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The railway axles are the essential parts in the bogie of train, and its failure creates a big problem in the railway transport; during the work of this parts we noticed a premature deterioration. The aim has been presented a predictive model allowing the identification of the probable causes that are the cause of these premature deterioration. The results are employed for predicting fatigue crack growth in the railway axle, Also we want to present the variation value of stress intensity factor in different positions of elliptical crack tip. The modeling of axle in performed by the SOLID WORKS software and imported into ANSYS.

Keywords: crack growth, static load, railway axle, lifetime

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797 Basketball Game-Related Statistics Discriminating Teams Competing in Basketball Africa League and Euroleague: Comparative Analysis

Authors: Ng'etich K. Stephen

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Abstract—Globally analytics in basketball has advanced tremendously in the last decade. Organizations are leveraging the insights to improve team and player performance and, in the long run, generate revenue out of it. Due to limited basketball game-related statistics in African competitions, teams are unaware of how they compete with other continental basketball teams. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the regional difference in basketball game-related statistics between African teams that played in the newly formed league, the basketball African league and the European league. The basketball African league, a competition created through the partnership between NBA and FIBA, offers a good starting point since it has valuable basketball metrics to analyze. This study sought to use multivariate linear discriminant analysis to identify the game-related statistics that discriminate the teams in Euro league and the basketball African league.

Keywords: basketball africa league, basketball, euroleague, fiba, africa

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796 AI In Health and Wellbeing - A Seven-Step Engineering Method

Authors: Denis Özdemir, Max Senges

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There are many examples of AI-supported apps for better health and wellbeing. Generally, these applications help people to achieve their goals based on scientific research and input data. Still, they do not always explain how those three are related, e.g. by making implicit assumptions about goals that hold for many but not for all. We present a seven-step method for designing health and wellbeing AIs considering goal setting, measurable results, real-time indicators, analytics, visual representations, communication, and feedback. It can help engineers as guidance in developing apps, recommendation algorithms, and interfaces that support humans in their decision-making without patronization. To illustrate the method, we create a recommender AI for tiny wellbeing habits and run a small case study, including a survey. From the results, we infer how people perceive the relationship between them and the AI and to what extent it helps them to achieve their goals. We review our seven-step engineering method and suggest modifications for the next iteration.

Keywords: recommender systems, natural language processing, health apps, engineering methods

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795 Using Multi-Arm Bandits to Optimize Game Play Metrics and Effective Game Design

Authors: Kenny Raharjo, Ramon Lawrence

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Game designers have the challenging task of building games that engage players to spend their time and money on the game. There are an infinite number of game variations and design choices, and it is hard to systematically determine game design choices that will have positive experiences for players. In this work, we demonstrate how multi-arm bandits can be used to automatically explore game design variations to achieve improved player metrics. The advantage of multi-arm bandits is that they allow for continuous experimentation and variation, intrinsically converge to the best solution, and require no special infrastructure to use beyond allowing minor game variations to be deployed to users for evaluation. A user study confirms that applying multi-arm bandits was successful in determining the preferred game variation with highest play time metrics and can be a useful technique in a game designer's toolkit.

Keywords: game design, multi-arm bandit, design exploration and data mining, player metric optimization and analytics

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794 Predictive Factors of Exercise Behaviors of Junior High School Students in Chonburi Province

Authors: Tanida Julvanichpong

Abstract:

Exercise has been regarded as a necessary and important aspect to enhance physical performance and psychology health. Body weight statistics of students in junior high school students in Chonburi Province beyond a standard risk of obesity. Promoting exercise among Junior high school students in Chonburi Province, essential knowledge concerning factors influencing exercise is needed. Therefore, this study aims to (1) determine the levels of perceived exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived barriers to exercise, perceived benefits of exercise, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, feelings associated with exercise behavior, influence of the family to exercise, influence of friends to exercise, and the perceived influence of the environment on exercise. (2) examine the predicting ability of each of the above factors while including personal factors (sex, educational level) for exercise behavior. Pender’s Health Promotion Model was used as a guide for the study. Sample included 652 students in junior high schools, Chonburi Provience. The samples were selected by Multi-Stage Random Sampling. Data Collection has been done by using self-administered questionnaires. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient, Eta, and stepwise multiple regression analysis. The research results showed that: 1. Perceived benefits of exercise, influence of teacher, influence of environmental, feelings associated with exercise behavior were at a high level. Influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise and influence of friends were at a moderate level. Perceived barriers to exercise were at a low level. 2. Exercise behavior was positively significant related to perceived benefits of exercise, influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, influence of friends, influence of teacher, influence of environmental and feelings associated with exercise behavior (p < .01, respectively) and was negatively significant related to educational level and perceived barriers to exercise (p < .01, respectively). Exercise behavior was significant related to sex (Eta = 0.243, p=.000). 3. Exercise behavior in the past, influence of the family to exercise significantly contributed 60.10 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in male students (p < .01). Exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, perceived barriers to exercise, and educational level significantly contributed 52.60 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in female students (p < .01).

Keywords: predictive factors, exercise behaviors, Junior high school, Chonburi Province

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793 Customer Acquisition through Time-Aware Marketing Campaign Analysis in Banking Industry

Authors: Harneet Walia, Morteza Zihayat

Abstract:

Customer acquisition has become one of the critical issues of any business in the 21st century; having a healthy customer base is the essential asset of the bank business. Term deposits act as a major source of cheap funds for the banks to invest and benefit from interest rate arbitrage. To attract customers, the marketing campaigns at most financial institutions consist of multiple outbound telephonic calls with more than one contact to a customer which is a very time-consuming process. Therefore, customized direct marketing has become more critical than ever for attracting new clients. As customer acquisition is becoming more difficult to archive, having an intelligent and redefined list is necessary to sell a product smartly. Our aim of this research is to increase the effectiveness of campaigns by predicting customers who will most likely subscribe to the fixed deposit and suggest the most suitable month to reach out to customers. We design a Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) using two different approaches, with an aim to find the best approach and technique to build the prediction model. TAUPF is implemented using Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA) and Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA). We also address the data imbalance problem by examining and comparing different methods of sampling (Up-sampling and down-sampling). Our results have shown building such a model is quite feasible and profitable for the financial institutions. The Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) can be easily used in any industry such as telecom, automobile, tourism, etc. where the TAUPF (Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA) or Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA)) holds valid. In our case, CUPA books more reliable. As proven in our research, one of the most important challenges is to define measures which have enough predictive power as the subscription to a fixed deposit depends on highly ambiguous situations and cannot be easily isolated. While we have shown the practicality of time-aware upsell prediction model where financial institutions can benefit from contacting the customers at the specified month, further research needs to be done to understand the specific time of the day. In addition, a further empirical/pilot study on real live customer needs to be conducted to prove the effectiveness of the model in the real world.

Keywords: customer acquisition, predictive analysis, targeted marketing, time-aware analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
792 ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT Impact on Staging of Pancreatic Cancer

Authors: Jiri Kysucan, Dusan Klos, Katherine Vomackova, Pavel Koranda, Martin Lovecek, Cestmir Neoral, Roman Havlik

Abstract:

Aim: The prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer is poor. The median of survival after establishing diagnosis is 3-11 months without surgical treatment, 13-20 months with surgical treatment depending on the disease stage, 5-year survival is less than 5%. Radical surgical resection remains the only hope of curing the disease. Early diagnosis with valid establishment of tumor resectability is, therefore, the most important aim for patients with pancreatic cancer. The aim of the work is to evaluate the contribution and define the role of 18F-FDG PET/CT in preoperative staging. Material and Methods: In 195 patients (103 males, 92 females, median age 66,7 years, 32-88 years) with a suspect pancreatic lesion, as part of the standard preoperative staging, in addition to standard examination methods (ultrasonography, contrast spiral CT, endoscopic ultrasonography, endoscopic ultrasonographic biopsy), a hybrid 18F-FDG PET/CT was performed. All PET/CT findings were subsequently compared with standard staging (CT, EUS, EUS FNA), with peroperative findings and definitive histology in the operated patients as reference standards. Interpretation defined the extent of the tumor according to TNM classification. Limitations of resectability were local advancement (T4) and presence of distant metastases (M1). Results: PET/CT was performed in a total of 195 patients with a suspect pancreatic lesion. In 153 patients, pancreatic carcinoma was confirmed and of these patients, 72 were not indicated for radical surgical procedure due to local inoperability or generalization of the disease. The sensitivity of PET/CT in detecting the primary lesion was 92.2%, specificity was 90.5%. A false negative finding in 12 patients, a false positive finding was seen in 4 cases, positive predictive value (PPV) 97.2%, negative predictive value (NPV) 76,0%. In evaluating regional lymph nodes, sensitivity was 51.9%, specificity 58.3%, PPV 58,3%, NPV 51.9%. In detecting distant metastases, PET/CT reached a sensitivity of 82.8%, specificity was 97.8%, PPV 96.9%, NPV 87.0%. PET/CT found distant metastases in 12 patients, which were not detected by standard methods. In 15 patients (15.6%) with potentially radically resectable findings, the procedure was contraindicated based on PET/CT findings and the treatment strategy was changed. Conclusion: PET/CT is a highly sensitive and specific method useful in preoperative staging of pancreatic cancer. It improves the selection of patients for radical surgical procedures, who can benefit from it and decreases the number of incorrectly indicated operations.

Keywords: cancer, PET/CT, staging, surgery

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
791 Optimization of Roster Construction In Sports

Authors: Elijah Cavan

Abstract:

In Major League Sports (MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL), it is the Front Office Staff (FOS) who make decisions about who plays for their respective team. The FOS bear the brunt of the responsibility for acquiring players through drafting, trading and signing players in free agency while typically contesting with maximum roster salary constraints. The players themselves are volatile assets of these teams- their value fluctuates with age and performance. A simple comparison can be made when viewing players as assets. The problem here is similar to that of optimizing your investment portfolio. The The goal is ultimately to maximize your periodic returns while tolerating a fixed risk (degree of uncertainty/ potential loss). Each franchise may value assets differently, and some may only tolerate lower risk levels- these are examples of factors that introduce additional constraints into the model. In this talk, we will detail the mathematical formulation of this problem as a constrained optimization problem- which can be solved with classical machine learning methods but is also well posed as a problem to be solved on quantum computers

Keywords: optimization, financial mathematics, sports analytics, simulated annealing

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790 Modelling Spatial Dynamics of Terrorism

Authors: André Python

Abstract:

To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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789 Early Predictive Signs for Kasai Procedure Success

Authors: Medan Isaeva, Anna Degtyareva

Abstract:

Context: Biliary atresia is a common reason for liver transplants in children, and the Kasai procedure can potentially be successful in avoiding the need for transplantation. However, it is important to identify factors that influence surgical outcomes in order to optimize treatment and improve patient outcomes. Research aim: The aim of this study was to develop prognostic models to assess the outcomes of the Kasai procedure in children with biliary atresia. Methodology: This retrospective study analyzed data from 166 children with biliary atresia who underwent the Kasai procedure between 2002 and 2021. The effectiveness of the operation was assessed based on specific criteria, including post-operative stool color, jaundice reduction, and bilirubin levels. The study involved a comparative analysis of various parameters, such as gestational age, birth weight, age at operation, physical development, liver and spleen sizes, and laboratory values including bilirubin, ALT, AST, and others, measured pre- and post-operation. Ultrasonographic evaluations were also conducted pre-operation, assessing the hepatobiliary system and related quantitative parameters. The study was carried out by two experienced specialists in pediatric hepatology. Comparative analysis and multifactorial logistic regression were used as the primary statistical methods. Findings: The study identified several statistically significant predictors of a successful Kasai procedure, including the presence of the gallbladder and levels of cholesterol and direct bilirubin post-operation. A detectable gallbladder was associated with a higher probability of surgical success, while elevated post-operative cholesterol and direct bilirubin levels were indicative of a reduced chance of positive outcomes. Theoretical importance: The findings of this study contribute to the optimization of treatment strategies for children with biliary atresia undergoing the Kasai procedure. By identifying early predictive signs of success, clinicians can modify treatment plans and manage patient care more effectively and proactively. Data collection and analysis procedures: Data for this analysis were obtained from the health records of patients who received the Kasai procedure. Comparative analysis and multifactorial logistic regression were employed to analyze the data and identify significant predictors. Question addressed: The study addressed the question of identifying predictive factors for the success of the Kasai procedure in children with biliary atresia. Conclusion: The developed prognostic models serve as valuable tools for early detection of patients who are less likely to benefit from the Kasai procedure. This enables clinicians to modify treatment plans and manage patient care more effectively and proactively. Potential limitations of the study: The study has several limitations. Its retrospective nature may introduce biases and inconsistencies in data collection. Being single centered, the results might not be generalizable to wider populations due to variations in surgical and postoperative practices. Also, other potential influencing factors beyond the clinical, laboratory, and ultrasonographic parameters considered in this study were not explored, which could affect the outcomes of the Kasai operation. Future studies could benefit from including a broader range of factors.

Keywords: biliary atresia, kasai operation, prognostic model, native liver survival

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788 Modelling Fluidization by Data-Based Recurrence Computational Fluid Dynamics

Authors: Varun Dongre, Stefan Pirker, Stefan Heinrich

Abstract:

Over the last decades, the numerical modelling of fluidized bed processes has become feasible even for industrial processes. Commonly, continuous two-fluid models are applied to describe large-scale fluidization. In order to allow for coarse grids novel two-fluid models account for unresolved sub-grid heterogeneities. However, computational efforts remain high – in the order of several hours of compute-time for a few seconds of real-time – thus preventing the representation of long-term phenomena such as heating or particle conversion processes. In order to overcome this limitation, data-based recurrence computational fluid dynamics (rCFD) has been put forward in recent years. rCFD can be regarded as a data-based method that relies on the numerical predictions of a conventional short-term simulation. This data is stored in a database and then used by rCFD to efficiently time-extrapolate the flow behavior in high spatial resolution. This study will compare the numerical predictions of rCFD simulations with those of corresponding full CFD reference simulations for lab-scale and pilot-scale fluidized beds. In assessing the predictive capabilities of rCFD simulations, we focus on solid mixing and secondary gas holdup. We observed that predictions made by rCFD simulations are highly sensitive to numerical parameters such as diffusivity associated with face swaps. We achieved a computational speed-up of four orders of magnitude (10,000 time faster than classical TFM simulation) eventually allowing for real-time simulations of fluidized beds. In the next step, we apply the checkerboarding technique by introducing gas tracers subjected to convection and diffusion. We then analyze the concentration profiles by observing mixing, transport of gas tracers, insights about the convective and diffusive pattern of the gas tracers, and further towards heat and mass transfer methods. Finally, we run rCFD simulations and calibrate them with numerical and physical parameters compared with convectional Two-fluid model (full CFD) simulation. As a result, this study gives a clear indication of the applicability, predictive capabilities, and existing limitations of rCFD in the realm of fluidization modelling.

Keywords: multiphase flow, recurrence CFD, two-fluid model, industrial processes

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787 Generating Real-Time Visual Summaries from Located Sensor-Based Data with Chorems

Authors: Z. Bouattou, R. Laurini, H. Belbachir

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This paper describes a new approach for the automatic generation of the visual summaries dealing with cartographic visualization methods and sensors real time data modeling. Hence, the concept of chorems seems an interesting candidate to visualize real time geographic database summaries. Chorems have been defined by Roger Brunet (1980) as schematized visual representations of territories. However, the time information is not yet handled in existing chorematic map approaches, issue has been discussed in this paper. Our approach is based on spatial analysis by interpolating the values recorded at the same time, by sensors available, so we have a number of distributed observations on study areas and used spatial interpolation methods to find the concentration fields, from these fields and by using some spatial data mining procedures on the fly, it is possible to extract important patterns as geographic rules. Then, those patterns are visualized as chorems.

Keywords: geovisualization, spatial analytics, real-time, geographic data streams, sensors, chorems

Procedia PDF Downloads 398
786 The Efficacy of Open Educational Resources in Students’ Performance and Engagement

Authors: Huda Al-Shuaily, E. M. Lacap

Abstract:

Higher Education is one of the most essential fundamentals for the advancement and progress of a country. It demands to be as accessible as possible and as comprehensive as it can be reached. In this paper, we succeeded to expand the accessibility and delivery of higher education using an Open Educational Resources (OER), a freely accessible, openly licensed documents, and media for teaching and learning. This study creates a comparative design of student’s academic performance on the course Introduction to Database and student engagement to the virtual learning environment (VLE). The study was done in two successive semesters - one without using the OER and the other is using OER. In the study, we established that there is a significant increase in student’s engagement in VLE in the latter semester compared to the former. By using the latter semester’s data, we manage to show that the student’s engagement has a positive impact on students’ academic performance. Moreso, after clustering their academic performance, the impact is seen higher for students who are low performing. The results show that these engagements can be used to potentially predict the learning styles of the student with a high degree of precision.

Keywords: EDM, learning analytics, moodle, OER, student-engagement

Procedia PDF Downloads 337
785 Predictive Factors of Prognosis in Acute Stroke Patients Receiving Traditional Chinese Medicine Therapy: A Retrospective Study

Authors: Shaoyi Lu

Abstract:

Background: Traditional Chinese medicine has been used to treat stroke, which is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. There is, however, no clear agreement about the optimal timing, population, efficacy, and predictive prognosis factors of traditional Chinese medicine supplemental therapy. Method: In this study, we used a retrospective analysis with data collection from stroke patients in Stroke Registry In Chang Gung Healthcare System (SRICHS). Stroke patients who received traditional Chinese medicine consultation in neurology ward of Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital from Jan 2010 to Dec 2014 were enrolled. Clinical profiles including the neurologic deficit, activities of daily living and other basic characteristics were analyzed. Through propensity score matching, we compared the NIHSS and Barthel index before and after the hospitalization, and applied with subgroup analysis, and adjusted by multivariate regression method. Results: Totally 115 stroke patients were enrolled with experiment group in 23 and control group in 92. The most important factor for prognosis prediction were the scores of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and Barthel index right before the hospitalization. Traditional Chinese medicine intervention had no statistically significant influence on the neurological deficit of acute stroke patients, and mild negative influence on daily activity performance of acute hemorrhagic stroke patient. Conclusion: Efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine as a supplemental therapy for acute stroke patients was controversial. The reason for this phenomenon might be complex and require more research to comprehend. Key words: traditional Chinese medicine, acupuncture, Stroke, NIH stroke scale, Barthel index, predictive factor. Method: In this study, we used a retrospective analysis with data collection from stroke patients in Stroke Registry In Chang Gung Healthcare System (SRICHS). Stroke patients who received traditional Chinese medicine consultation in neurology ward of Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital from Jan 2010 to Dec 2014 were enrolled. Clinical profiles including the neurologic deficit, activities of daily living and other basic characteristics were analyzed. Through propensity score matching, we compared the NIHSS and Barthel index before and after the hospitalization, and applied with subgroup analysis, and adjusted by multivariate regression method. Results: Totally 115 stroke patients were enrolled with experiment group in 23 and control group in 92. The most important factor for prognosis prediction were the scores of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and Barthel index right before the hospitalization. Traditional Chinese medicine intervention had no statistically significant influence on the neurological deficit of acute stroke patients, and mild negative influence on daily activity performance of acute hemorrhagic stroke patient. Conclusion: Efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine as a supplemental therapy for acute stroke patients was controversial. The reason for this phenomenon might be complex and require more research to comprehend.

Keywords: traditional Chinese medicine, complementary and alternative medicine, stroke, acupuncture

Procedia PDF Downloads 357
784 A Digital Twin Approach to Support Real-time Situational Awareness and Intelligent Cyber-physical Control in Energy Smart Buildings

Authors: Haowen Xu, Xiaobing Liu, Jin Dong, Jianming Lian

Abstract:

Emerging smart buildings often employ cyberinfrastructure, cyber-physical systems, and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies to increase the automation and responsiveness of building operations for better energy efficiency and lower carbon emission. These operations include the control of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems, which are often considered a major source of energy consumption in both commercial and residential buildings. Developing energy-saving control models for optimizing HVAC operations usually requires the collection of high-quality instrumental data from iterations of in-situ building experiments, which can be time-consuming and labor-intensive. This abstract describes a digital twin approach to automate building energy experiments for optimizing HVAC operations through the design and development of an adaptive web-based platform. The platform is created to enable (a) automated data acquisition from a variety of IoT-connected HVAC instruments, (b) real-time situational awareness through domain-based visualizations, (c) adaption of HVAC optimization algorithms based on experimental data, (d) sharing of experimental data and model predictive controls through web services, and (e) cyber-physical control of individual instruments in the HVAC system using outputs from different optimization algorithms. Through the digital twin approach, we aim to replicate a real-world building and its HVAC systems in an online computing environment to automate the development of building-specific model predictive controls and collaborative experiments in buildings located in different climate zones in the United States. We present two case studies to demonstrate our platform’s capability for real-time situational awareness and cyber-physical control of the HVAC in the flexible research platforms within the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) main campus. Our platform is developed using adaptive and flexible architecture design, rendering the platform generalizable and extendable to support HVAC optimization experiments in different types of buildings across the nation.

Keywords: energy-saving buildings, digital twins, HVAC, cyber-physical system, BIM

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783 Prediction of Anticancer Potential of Curcumin Nanoparticles by Means of Quasi-Qsar Analysis Using Monte Carlo Method

Authors: Ruchika Goyal, Ashwani Kumar, Sandeep Jain

Abstract:

The experimental data for anticancer potential of curcumin nanoparticles was calculated by means of eclectic data. The optimal descriptors were examined using Monte Carlo method based CORAL SEA software. The statistical quality of the model is following: n = 14, R² = 0.6809, Q² = 0.5943, s = 0.175, MAE = 0.114, F = 26 (sub-training set), n =5, R²= 0.9529, Q² = 0.7982, s = 0.086, MAE = 0.068, F = 61, Av Rm² = 0.7601, ∆R²m = 0.0840, k = 0.9856 and kk = 1.0146 (test set) and n = 5, R² = 0.6075 (validation set). This data can be used to build predictive QSAR models for anticancer activity.

Keywords: anticancer potential, curcumin, model, nanoparticles, optimal descriptors, QSAR

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782 A Study on the New Weapon Requirements Analytics Using Simulations and Big Data

Authors: Won Il Jung, Gene Lee, Luis Rabelo

Abstract:

Since many weapon systems are getting more complex and diverse, various problems occur in terms of the acquisition cost, time, and performance limitation. As a matter of fact, the experiment execution in real world is costly, dangerous, and time-consuming to obtain Required Operational Characteristics (ROC) for a new weapon acquisition although enhancing the fidelity of experiment results. Also, until presently most of the research contained a large amount of assumptions so therefore a bias is present in the experiment results. At this moment, the new methodology is proposed to solve these problems without a variety of assumptions. ROC of the new weapon system is developed through the new methodology, which is a way to analyze big data generated by simulating various scenarios based on virtual and constructive models which are involving 6 Degrees of Freedom (6DoF). The new methodology enables us to identify unbiased ROC on new weapons by reducing assumptions and provide support in terms of the optimal weapon systems acquisition.

Keywords: big data, required operational characteristics (ROC), virtual and constructive models, weapon acquisition

Procedia PDF Downloads 286