Search results for: estimated model

Authors: V. Benedico, C. Anacleto, A. Bearzi, L. Brice, V. Delahaye

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The aim in present paper is to construct an affordable and reliable commodity prices based on a recalculation of its cost through time which allows visualize the potential risks and thus, take more appropriate decisions regarding forecasts. Here attention has been focused on Levy model, more reliable and realistic than classical random Gaussian one as it takes into consideration observed abrupt jumps in case of sudden price variation. In application to Energy Trading sector where it has never been used before, equations corresponding to Levy model have been written for electricity pricing in European market. Parameters have been set in order to predict and simulate the price and its evolution through time to remarkable accuracy. As predicted by Levy model, the results show significant spikes which reach unconventional levels contrary to currently used Brownian model.

Keywords: commodity pricing, Lévy Model, price spikes, electricity market

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Authors: Farzad Sharifi, Raziyeh Shamsi

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In this paper, we obtain the projection of inefficient units in data envelopment analysis (DEA) in the case of stochastic inputs and outputs using the multi-objective programming (MOP) structure. In some problems, the inputs might be stochastic while the outputs are deterministic, and vice versa. In such cases, we propose molti-objective DEA-R model, because in some cases (e.g., when unnecessary and irrational weights by the BCC model reduces the efficiency score), an efficient DMU is introduced as inefficient by the BCC model, whereas the DMU is considered efficient by the DEA-R model. In some other case, only the ratio of stochastic data may be available (e.g; the ratio of stochastic inputs to stochastic outputs). Thus, we provide multi objective DEA model without explicit outputs and prove that in-put oriented MOP DEA-R model in the invariable return to scale case can be replacing by MOP- DEA model without explicit outputs in the variable return to scale and vice versa. Using the interactive methods for solving the proposed model, yields a projection corresponding to the viewpoint of the DM and the analyst, which is nearer to reality and more practical. Finally, an application is provided.

Keywords: DEA, MOLP, STOCHASTIC, DEA-R

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Authors: Komal Saini, B. K. Sahoo, B.S. Bajwa

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In the present study, indoor radon and thoron concentrations have been estimated using newly developed twin cup based pin hole dosimeter with single entry face in some areas of Punjab state, India. The equilibrium equivalent concentration (EEC) of radon and thoron has also been estimated directly by using progeny sensors, fabricated by BARC, India. Observed radon and thoron concentrations varied from 38.7±5.79 to 98.7±13.11 Bq/m3 and 25.38±6.56 to 126.56±14.23 Bq/m3 with an average value of 61.59±8.11 & 70.89±9.52 Bq/m3 respectively. Average equilibrium equivalent concentration of radon and thoron was 27.98±4.66 & 2.24±0.61 Bq/m3. Calculated equilibrium factor for radon and thoron was 0.467 and 0.034 in the present study. Annual inhalation dose calculated from the present observed concentrations, varied from 1.80 to 3.60 mSv/year with an average value of 2.52 mSv/year, which is well within reference level. It has been observed from the present study that thoron is a significant contributor to the inhalation dose which is about 25% of the total inhalation dose.

Keywords: radon, thoron, pin hole cup dosimeter, DTPS/DRPS, annual inhalation dose

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Authors: Tesfaye Alamirew Dessie

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Our study focuses on developing a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) and evaluating it against a traditional PID for a pasteurization process. Utilizing system identification from the experimental data, the dynamics of the pasteurization process were calculated. Using best fit with data validation, residual, and stability analysis, the quality of several model architectures was evaluated. The validation data fit the auto-regressive with exogenous input (ARX322) model of the pasteurization process by roughly 80.37 percent. The ARX322 model structure was used to create MPC and PID control techniques. After comparing controller performance based on settling time, overshoot percentage, and stability analysis, it was found that MPC controllers outperform PID for those parameters.

Keywords: MPC, PID, ARX, pasteurization

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Authors: Jaroslav Krutil, Simona Fialová, , František Pochylý

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A nonlinear mathematical model of mutual fluid-structure interaction is presented in the work. The model is applicable to the general shape of sealing gaps. An in compressible fluid and turbulent flow is assumed. The shaft carries a rotational and procession motion, the gap is axially flowed through. The achieved results of the additional mass, damping and stiffness matrices may be used in the solution of the rotor dynamics. The usage of this mathematical model is expected particularly in hydraulic machines. The method of control volumes in the ANSYS Fluent was used for the simulation. The obtained results of the pressure and velocity fields are used in the mathematical model of additional effects.

Keywords: nonlinear mathematical model, CFD modeling, hydrodynamic sealing gap, matrices of mass, stiffness, damping

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Authors: Stefaan Carpentier, Aya Al Masri, Fabrice Leroy, Thibault Julien, Safoin Aktaou, Malorie Martin, Fouad Maaloul

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Introduction: During an 'Interventional Radiology (IR)' procedure, the patient's skin-dose may become very high for a burn, necrosis, and ulceration to appear. In order to prevent these deterministic effects, a prediction of the peak skin-dose for the patient is important in order to improve the post-operative care to be given to the patient. The objective of this study is to estimate, before the intervention, the patient dose for ‘Chronic Total Occlusion (CTO)’ procedures by selecting relevant clinical indicators. Materials and methods: 103 procedures were performed in the ‘Interventional Cardiology (IC)’ department using a Siemens Artis Zee image intensifier that provides the Air Kerma of each IC exam. Peak Skin Dose (PSD) was measured for each procedure using radiochromic films. Patient parameters such as sex, age, weight, and height were recorded. The complexity index J-CTO score, specific to each intervention, was determined by the cardiologist. A correlation method applied to these indicators allowed to specify their influence on the dose. A predictive model of the dose was created using multiple linear regressions. Results: Out of 103 patients involved in the study, 5 were excluded for clinical reasons and 2 for placement of radiochromic films outside the exposure field. 96 2D-dose maps were finally used. The influencing factors having the highest correlation with the PSD are the patient's diameter and the J-CTO score. The predictive model is based on these parameters. The comparison between estimated and measured skin doses shows an average difference of 0.85 ± 0.55 Gy for doses of less than 6 Gy. The mean difference between air-Kerma and PSD is 1.66 Gy ± 1.16 Gy. Conclusion: Using our developed method, a first estimate of the dose to the skin of the patient is available before the start of the procedure, which helps the cardiologist in carrying out its intervention. This estimation is more accurate than that provided by the Air-Kerma.

Keywords: chronic total occlusion procedures, clinical experimentation, interventional radiology, patient's peak skin dose

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Authors: Lavan Vickneson

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In today’s modern economy, the conventional banking model is the primary banking system used around the world. A significant problem faced by the conventional banking model is the recurring nature of banking crises. History’s record of the various banking crises, ranging from the Great Depression to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, is testament to the fact that banking crises continue to strike despite the preventive measures in place, such as bank’s minimum capital requirements and deposit guarantee schemes. If banking crises continue to occur despite these preventive measures, it necessarily follows that there are inherent flaws with the conventional banking model itself. In light of this, a possible alternative banking model to the conventional banking model is Islamic banking. To date, Islamic banking has been a niche market, predominantly serving Muslim investors. This paper seeks to explore the possibility of Islamic banking being more than just a niche market and playing a greater role in banking sectors around the world, by being a viable alternative to the conventional banking model.

Keywords: bank crises, conventional banking model, Islamic banking, niche market

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Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

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Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

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Authors: Mark Joseph Quinto, Roan Beronilla, Guiller Damian, Eliza Camaso, Ronaldo Alberto

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Forest inventories are essential to assess the composition, structure and distribution of forest vegetation that can be used as baseline information for management decisions. Classical forest inventory is labor intensive and time-consuming and sometimes even dangerous. The use of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) in forest inventory would improve and overcome these restrictions. This study was conducted to determine the possibility of using LiDAR derived data in extracting high accuracy forest biophysical parameters and as a non-destructive method for forest status analysis of San Manual, Pangasinan. Forest resources extraction was carried out using LAS tools, GIS, Envi and .bat scripts with the available LiDAR data. The process includes the generation of derivatives such as Digital Terrain Model (DTM), Canopy Height Model (CHM) and Canopy Cover Model (CCM) in .bat scripts followed by the generation of 17 composite bands to be used in the extraction of forest classification covers using ENVI 4.8 and GIS software. The Diameter in Breast Height (DBH), Above Ground Biomass (AGB) and Carbon Stock (CS) were estimated for each classified forest cover and Tree Count Extraction was carried out using GIS. Subsequently, field validation was conducted for accuracy assessment. Results showed that the forest of San Manuel has 73% Forest Cover, which is relatively much higher as compared to the 10% canopy cover requirement. On the extracted canopy height, 80% of the tree’s height ranges from 12 m to 17 m. CS of the three forest covers based on the AGB were: 20819.59 kg/20x20 m for closed broadleaf, 8609.82 kg/20x20 m for broadleaf plantation and 15545.57 kg/20x20m for open broadleaf. Average tree counts for the tree forest plantation was 413 trees/ha. As such, the forest of San Manuel has high percent forest cover and high CS.

Keywords: carbon stock, forest inventory, LiDAR, tree count

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Authors: M. Bruzza, M. Tupia, F. Rodríguez

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As part of the regulatory compliance process and the streamlining of public administration, the Peruvian government has implemented the National E-Government Plan in all state institutions with the aim of providing citizens with solid services based on the use of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT). As part of the regulations, the requisites to be met by public institutions have been submitted. However, the lack of an implementation model was detected, one that can serve as a guide to such institutions in order to materialize the organizational and technological structures needed, which allow them to provide the required digital services. This paper develops an implementation model of electronic government (e-government) for Peru’s state institutions, in compliance with current regulations based on a COBIT 5.0 framework. Furthermore, the paper introduces phase 1 of this model: business and IT goals, the goals cascade and the future model of processes.

Keywords: e-government, u-government, COBIT, implementation model

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Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Ryuichi Yatabe

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In this study, a residual-state creep failure model was developed based on the residual-state creep test results of clayey soils. To develop the proposed model, the regression analyses were done by using the R. The model results of the failure time (tf) and critical displacement (δc) were compared with experimental results and found in close agreements to each others. It is expected that the proposed regression model for residual-state creep failure will be more useful for the prediction of displacement of different clayey soils in the future.

Keywords: regression model, residual-state creep failure, displacement prediction, clayey soils

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Authors: Ossama Matrane

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Information System has become a strategic lever for enterprises. It contributes effectively to align business processes on strategies of enterprises. It is regarded as an increase in productivity and effectiveness. So, many organizations are currently involved in implementing sustainable Information System. And, a large number of studies have been conducted the last decade in order to define the success factors of information system. Thus, many studies on maturity model have been carried out. Some of this study is referred to the maturity model of Information System. In this article, we report on development of maturity models specifically designed for information system. This model is built based on three components derived from Maturity Model for Information Security Management, OPM3 for Project Management Maturity Model and processes of COBIT for IT governance. Thus, our proposed model defines three maturity stages for corporate a strong Information System to support objectives of organizations. It provides a very practical structure with which to assess and improve Information System Implementation.

Keywords: information system, maturity models, information security management, OPM3, IT governance

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Authors: Ouzayr Rabhi, Ibtissam Arrassen

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To provide a complete analysis of the organization and to help decision-making, leaders need to have relevant data; Data Warehouses (DW) are designed to meet such needs. However, designing DW is not trivial and there is no formal method to derive a multidimensional schema from heterogeneous databases. In this article, we present a Model-Driven based approach concerning the design of data warehouses. We describe a multidimensional meta-model and also specify a set of transformations starting from a Unified Modeling Language (UML) metamodel. In this approach, the UML metamodel and the multidimensional one are both considered as a platform-independent model (PIM). The first meta-model is mapped into the second one through transformation rules carried out by the Query View Transformation (QVT) language. This proposal is validated through the application of our approach to generating a multidimensional schema of a Balanced Scorecard (BSC) DW. We are interested in the BSC perspectives, which are highly linked to the vision and the strategies of an organization.

Keywords: data warehouse, meta-model, model-driven architecture, transformation, UML

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Authors: D: Gupta, M. Radhakrishnan, Y. Kurhe, D. Thangaraj

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Depression is among the leading causes of death worldwide. The current pharmacotherapy is associated with poor compliance, resistance and relapse, which necessitate the development of novel compounds with better efficacy. The present study designed and synthesized EQC-34 (N-cyclohexyl-3-ethoxyquinoxalin-2-carboxamide) as novel serotonin type-3 (5HT3) antagonist and evaluated its antidepressant-like effects using neurobehavioral mouse model. 5HT3 antagonism (as pA2 value) was determined on the longitudinal smooth muscle of guinea-pig ileum against 2-methyl-5HT (a 5HT3 agonist). The doses were calculated by dose response of basal locomotor activity. Consequently, effects of EQC-34 on neurobehavioral parameters were measured in forced swim (FST) and tail suspension test (TST). The possible mechanism was estimated by interaction study with fluoxetine (a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor) and mCPBG (1-(m-chlorophenyl)-biguanide, a selective 5HT3 agonist), and confirmed by potentiation of head twitch response by 5hydroxy-L-tryptophan (5HTP). EQC-34 (1-4 mg/kg, i.p.) produced significant decreased behavioral despair effects in FST and TST. It potentiated fluoxetine response, while mCPBG reduced EQC-34 activity in FST. Further, EQC-34 potentiated 5HTP induced head twitch response. EQC-34 revealed potential antidepressant-like effects, which may involve 5HT3 receptor mediated facilitation of 5HT neurotransmission, thereby reversing the pathological deficiency of monoamines (5HT) observed in depression. Thus, it may be further investigated as promising agent to improve therapeutics of depression.

Keywords: depression, forced swim test, 5HT3 receptor antagonist, serotonin

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Authors: Gamal F.Attia

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The baselines are the distances and lengths of the chords between projections of the positions of the laser stations on the reference ellipsoid. For the satellite geodesy, it is very important to determine the optimal length of orbital arc along which laser measurements are to be carried out. It is clear that for the dynamical methods long arcs (one month or more) are to be used. According to which more errors of modeling of different physical forces such as earth's gravitational field, air drag, solar radiation pressure, and others that may influence the accuracy of the estimation of the satellites position, at the same time the measured errors con be almost completely excluded and high stability in determination of relative coordinate system can be achieved. It is possible to diminish the influence of the errors of modeling by using short-arcs of the satellite orbit (several revolutions or days), but the station's coordinates estimated by different arcs con differ from each other by a larger quantity than statistical zero. Under the semidynamical ‘short arc’ method one or several passes of the satellite in one of simultaneous visibility from both ends of the chord is known and the estimated parameter in this case is the length of the chord. The comparison of the same baselines calculated with long and short arcs methods shows a good agreement and even speaks in favor of the last one. In this paper the Short Arc technique has been explained and 3 baselines have been determined using the ‘short arc’ method.

Keywords: baselines, short arc, dynamical, gravitational field

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Authors: Kiumars Shahbazi, Salah Salimian, Abdolrahim Hashemi Dizaj

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Locating is one of the key elements in success and survival of industrial centers and has great impact on cost reduction of establishment and launching of various economic activities. In this study, streets with unequal length model have been used that is the classic extension of Spoke model; however with unlimited number of streets with uneven lengths. The results showed that the spoke model is a special case of streets with unequal length model. According to the results of this study, if the strategy of enterprises and firms is to select both price and location, there would be no balance in the game. Furthermore, increased length of streets leads to increased profit of enterprises and with increased number of streets, the enterprises choose locations that are far from center (the maximum differentiation), and the enterprises' output will decrease. Moreover, the enterprise production rate will incline toward zero when the number of streets goes to infinity, and complete competition outcome will be achieved.

Keywords: locating, Nash equilibrium, streets with unequal length model, streets with unequal length model

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Authors: Jeong-Hyun Park, Young-Sik Park, Hyo-Teag Jung

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This paper presents static analysis deployment model for code quality on R&D Projects of SW Development. The proposed model includes the scope of R&D projects and index for static analysis of source code, operation model and execution process, environments and infrastructure system for R&D projects of SW development. There is the static analysis result of pilot project as case study based on the proposed deployment model and environment, and strategic considerations for success operation of the proposed static analysis deployment model for R&D Projects of SW Development. The proposed static analysis deployment model in this paper will be adapted and improved continuously for quality upgrade of R&D projects, and customer satisfaction of developed source codes and products.

Keywords: static analysis, code quality, coding rules, automation tool

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Authors: A. Bentabet, A. Aydin, N. Fenineche

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The mean penetration depth has a most important in the absorption transport phenomena. Analytical model of light ion backscattering coefficients from solid targets have been made by Vicanek and Urbassek. In the present work, we showed a mathematical expression (deterministic model) for Z1/2. In advantage, in the best of our knowledge, relatively only one analytical model exit for electron or positron mean penetration depth in solid targets. In this work, we have presented a simple geometric spherical model of absorbed particles based on CSDA scheme. In advantage, we have showed an analytical expression of the mean penetration depth by combination between our model and the Vicanek and Urbassek theory. For this, we have used the Relativistic Partial Wave Expansion Method (RPWEM) and the optical dielectric model to calculate the elastic cross sections and the ranges respectively. Good agreement was found with the experimental and theoretical data.

Keywords: Bentabet spherical geometric model, continuous slowing down approximation, stopping powers, ranges, mean penetration depth

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Authors: Azizah Che Omar

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Various studies have proposed factors of impulse purchase in different advertising mediums like website, mobile, traditional retail store and traditional television. However, to the best of researchers’ knowledge, none of the impulse purchase model is dedicated towards impulse purchase tendency for interactive TV (iTV) advertising. Therefore, the proposed model conceptual design model of interactive television advertising toward impulse purchase (iTVAdIP) was developed. The focus of this study is to evaluate the conceptual design model of iTVAdIP through expert review. As a result, the finding showed that majority of expert reviews agreed that the conceptual design model iTVAdIP is applicable to the development of interactive television advertising and it will increase the effectiveness of advertising. This study also shows the conceptual design model of iTVAdIP that has been reviewed.

Keywords: impulse purchase, interactive television advertising, persuasive

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Authors: S. Shamohammadi, L. Razavi

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This paper based on the principle concepts of SCS-CN model, a new mathematical model for computation of retention potential (S) presented. In the mathematical model, not only precipitation-runoff concepts in SCS-CN model are precisely represented in a mathematical form, but also new concepts, called “maximum retention” and “total retention” is introduced, and concepts of potential retention capacity, maximum retention, and total retention have been separated from each other. In the proposed model, actual retention (F), maximum actual retention (Fmax), total retention (S), maximum retention (Smax), and potential retention (Sp), for the first time clearly defined, so that Sp is not variable, but a function of morphological characteristics of the watershed. Indeed, based on the mathematical relation of the conceptual curve of SCS-CN model, the proposed model provides a new method for the computation of actual retention in watershed and it simply determined runoff based on. In the corresponding relations, in addition to Precipitation (P), Initial retention (Ia), cumulative values of actual retention capacity (F), total retention (S), runoff (Q), antecedent moisture (M), potential retention (Sp), total retention (S), we introduced Fmax and Fmin referring to maximum and minimum actual retention, respectively. As well as, ksh is a coefficient which depends on morphological characteristics of the watershed. Advantages of the modified version versus the original model include a better precision, higher performance, easier calibration and speed computing.

Keywords: model, mathematical, retention, watershed, SCS

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Authors: N. A. Mokhtar, A. G. Hussin, Y. Z. Zubairi

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This paper proposes a new simultaneous simple linear functional relationship model by assuming equal error variances. We derive the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters in the simultaneous model and the covariance. We show by simulation study the small bias values of the parameters suggest the suitability of the estimation method. As an illustration, the proposed simultaneous model is applied to real data of the wind direction and wave direction measured by two different instruments.

Keywords: simultaneous linear functional relationship model, Fisher information matrix, parameter estimation, circular variables

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Authors: Sheena K. J., Jyoti Badge, Sayed Mohammed Zeeshan

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A Comparative Study of Exponential and Logistic Population Growth Models in India India is the second most populous city in the world, just behind China, and is going to be in the first place by next year. The Indian population has remarkably at higher rate than the other countries from the past 20 years. There were many scientists and demographers who has formulated various models of population growth in order to study and predict the future population. Some of the models are Fibonacci population growth model, Exponential growth model, Logistic growth model, Lotka-Volterra model, etc. These models have been effective in the past to an extent in predicting the population. However, it is essential to have a detailed comparative study between the population models to come out with a more accurate one. Having said that, this research study helps to analyze and compare the two population models under consideration - exponential and logistic growth models, thereby identifying the most effective one. Using the census data of 2011, the approximate population for 2016 to 2031 are calculated for 20 Indian states using both the models, compared and recorded the data with the actual population. On comparing the results of both models, it is found that logistic population model is more accurate than the exponential model, and using this model, we can predict the future population in a more effective way. This will give an insight to the researchers about the effective models of population and how effective these population models are in predicting the future population.

Keywords: population growth, population models, exponential model, logistic model, fibonacci model, lotka-volterra model, future population prediction, demographers

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Authors: Belayet Hossain, Laura Lamb

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The study investigates the importance of health and social capital in determining the labour force status of Canada’s Indigenous population using data from 2006 Aboriginal Peoples Survey. An instrumental variable ordered probit model has been specified and estimated. The study finds that health status and social capital are important in determining Indigenous peoples’ employment status along with other factors. The results of the study imply that human resource development initiatives of Indigenous Peoples need to be broadened by including health status and social capital. Poor health and low degree of inclusion of the Indigenous Peoples need to be addressed in order to improve employment status of Canada’s Indigenous Peoples.

Keywords: labour force, human capital, social capital, aboriginal people, Canada

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

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This paper is to compare the parameter estimation of the mean in normal distribution by Maximum Likelihood (ML), Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The ML estimator is estimated by the average of data, the Bayes method is considered from the prior distribution to estimate Bayes estimator, and MCMC estimator is approximated by Gibbs sampling from posterior distribution. These methods are also to estimate a parameter then the hypothesis testing is used to check a robustness of the estimators. Data are simulated from normal distribution with the true parameter of mean 2, and variance 4, 9, and 16 when the sample sizes is set as 10, 20, 30, and 50. From the results, it can be seen that the estimation of MLE, and MCMC are perceivably different from the true parameter when the sample size is 10 and 20 with variance 16. Furthermore, the Bayes estimator is estimated from the prior distribution when mean is 1, and variance is 12 which showed the significant difference in mean with variance 9 at the sample size 10 and 20.

Keywords: Bayes method, Markov chain Monte Carlo method, maximum likelihood method, normal distribution

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Authors: Georgi I. Petkov, Ivan I. Vankov, Yolina A. Petrova

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A structure-based model of category learning and categorization at different levels of abstraction is presented. The model compares different structures and expresses their similarity implicitly in the forms of mappings. Based on this similarity, the model can categorize different targets either as members of categories that it already has or creates new categories. The model is novel using two threshold parameters to evaluate the structural correspondence. If the similarity between two structures exceeds the higher threshold, a new sub-ordinate category is created. Vice versa, if the similarity does not exceed the higher threshold but does the lower one, the model creates a new category on higher level of abstraction.

Keywords: analogy-making, categorization, learning of categories, abstraction, hierarchical structure

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Authors: C. Patrascioiu, V. Matei, N. Nicolae

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The paper describes the experiments and the kinetic parameters calculus of the gasoil hydrofining. They are presented experimental results of gasoil hidrofining using Mo and promoted with Ni on aluminum support catalyst. The authors have adapted a kinetic model gasoil hydrofining. Using this proposed kinetic model and the experimental data they have calculated the parameters of the model. The numerical calculus is based on minimizing the difference between the experimental sulf concentration and kinetic model estimation.

Keywords: hydrofining, kinetic, modeling, optimization

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Authors: Kostas Metaxiotis

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Portfolio optimization is one of the most important topics in finance. This paper proposes a mean–variance–skewness (MVS) portfolio optimization model. Traditionally, the portfolio optimization problem is solved by using the mean–variance (MV) framework. In this study, we formulate the proposed model as a three-objective optimization problem, where the portfolio's expected return and skewness are maximized whereas the portfolio risk is minimized. For solving the proposed three-objective portfolio optimization model we apply an adapted version of the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII). Finally, we use a real dataset from FTSE-100 for validating the proposed model.

Keywords: evolutionary algorithms, portfolio optimization, skewness, stock selection

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Authors: Jonny, T. Yuri M. Zagloel

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This paper is made to present an Indonesian Healthcare model. Currently, there are nine TQM (Total Quality Management) practices in healthcare industry. However, these practices are not integrated yet. Therefore, this paper aims to integrate these practices as a model by using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). After administering about 210 questionnaires to various stakeholders of this industry, a LISREL program was used to evaluate the model's fitness. The result confirmed that the model is fit because the p-value was about 0.45 or above required 0.05. This has signified that previously mentioned of nine TQM practices are able to be integrated as an Indonesian healthcare model.

Keywords: healthcare, total quality management (TQM), structural equation modeling (SEM), linear structural relations (LISREL)

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Authors: Kadhim Alabady

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Background: Mental illnesses after childbirth are common. After childbirth, women may experience a variety of postpartum complications such as developing depression during pregnancy and after childbirth. Postpartum depression might increases the risk of developing major depression in the future. The most common is postnatal depression also known as postpartum depression that is believed to affect between 10% – 15% of mothers and the most serious, puerperal psychosis (affecting less than 1%). Purpose: This research simply applies the predictions to the population of Dubai, without any adjustment for local conditions. It is intended to help stakeholders to discuss the scale of the issue locally. Method: Applying the above rates of postnatal depression prevalence (10%–15%) to the number of total live births in Dubai 2014. Setting: Birth registry for Dubai 2011/14. Key findings: it is estimated there would be approximately 2,928–4,392 mothers suffering from postnatal depression in 2014 of which 858–1,287 were nationals and 2,070–3,105 were non–nationals. These figures are likely to fluctuate depending on the number of mothers who have twin births, and these estimates of the level of postnatal depression do not take into account related factors such as the age of the mother and education. Recommendations: To establish mother-infant psychiatric care to target women suffering from depression during pregnancy and puerperium.

Keywords: post natal depression, women, mental health, birth

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Authors: Li Shuang

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With rigid teaching procedures and limited academic performance assessment methods, traditional teaching model stands in the way of college English reform in China, which features EAP (English for Academic Purpose) teaching. Flipped-classroom teaching, which has been extensively applied to science subjects teaching, however, covers the shortage of traditional teaching model in EAP teaching, via creatively inverting traditional teaching procedures. Besides, the application of flipped-classroom teaching model in EAP teaching also proves that this new teaching philosophy is not confined to science subjects teaching; it goes perfectly well with liberal-arts subjects teaching. Data analysis, desk research survey, and comparative study are referred to in the essay so as to prove its feasibility and advantages in EAP teaching.

Keywords: EAP, traditional teaching method, flipped-classroom teaching model, teaching model design

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