Search results for: conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model

Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa

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Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: 2D hydrodynamic model, ANUGA, flood, flood modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Lormaine Anne A. Branzuela, Elysa V. Largo, Monet Concepcion M. Detras, Neil C. Concibido

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The electricity demand is still increasing, and currently, the Philippine government is investigating the feasibility of operating the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) to address the country’s energy problem. However, the lack of process safety studies on BNPP focused on the effects of hazardous substances on the integrity of the structure, equipment, and other components, have made the plant operationalization questionable to the public. The three major nuclear power plant incidents – TMI-2, Chernobyl, and Fukushima – have made many people hesitant to include nuclear energy in the energy matrix. This study focused on the safety evaluation of possible operations of a nuclear power plant installed with a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), which is similar to BNPP. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is one of the Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) techniques used for the identification of equipment failure modes and minimizing its consequences. Using the FMEA technique, this study was able to recognize 116 different failure modes in total. Upon computation and ranking of the risk priority number (RPN) and criticality rating (CR), it showed that failure of the reactor coolant pump due to earthquakes is the most critical failure mode. This hazard scenario could lead to a nuclear meltdown and radioactive release, as identified by the FMEA team. Safeguards and recommended risk reduction strategies to lower the RPN and CR were identified such that the effects are minimized, the likelihood of occurrence is reduced, and failure detection is improved.

Keywords: PHA, FMEA, nuclear power plant, bataan nuclear power plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: T. Chinyoka

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We present the Johnson-Segalman constitutive model to capture certain fluid flow phenomena that has been experimentally observed in the flow of complex polymeric fluids. In particular, experimentally observed phenomena such as shear banding, spurt and slip are explored and/or explained in terms of the non-monotonic shear-stress versus shear-rate relationships. We also explore the effects of the inclusion of physical flow aspects such as wall porosity on shear banding. We similarly also explore the effects of the inclusion of mathematical modelling aspects such as stress diffusion into the stress constitutive models in order to predict shear-stress (or shear-rate) paths. We employ semi-implicit finite difference methods for all the computational solution procedures.

Keywords: Johnson-Segalman model, diffusive Johnson-Segalman model, shear banding, finite difference methods, complex fluid flow

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: risk, control, banking, FMECA, criticality

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Authors: Urmi Khatri

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Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) draws a direct relationship between the risk and the expected rate of return. There was a criticism on the beta and the assumptions of CAPM, as they are not applicable in the real world. Fama French Three Factor Model and Fama French Five Factor Model have given different factors, which have an impact on the return of any asset like size, value, investment and profitability. This study proposes to see Capital Asset pricing Model through the lenses of the quality aspect. In the study, the six factors are studied. The Fama French Five Factor Model and addition of the quality dimension are studied. Here, Graham’s seven quality and quantity criteria are measured to determine the score of the sample firms. Thus, this study tries to check the model fit. The beta coefficient of the quality dimension and the R square value is seen to determine validity of the proposed model. The sample is drawn from the firms listed on Indian Stock Exchange (BSE). For the study, only nonfinancial firms are been selected. The time period of the study is from January 1999 to December 2019. Hence, the primary objective of the study is to check how robust the model becomes after giving the quality dimension to the capital asset pricing model in addition to the size, value, profitability and investment.

Keywords: asset pricing model, CAPM, Graham’s score, G-score, multifactor model, quality

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Authors: Simin Asadollahi, Amir H. Soruri, Ali Moghimi

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Nowadays, salad oils are used in many countries around the world. Therefore, it is of great importance to ensure the safety of these food products which are usually packaged in Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles and come on the market. This study investigated the effects of storage time and temperature on the migration rate of phthalate compounds from PET bottle to salad oil. In more detail, migration rate of bis (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate from bottles to salad oil samples was measured in 1st, the 30th, and the 60th days of storage at a temperature of either 20 or 40 °C. At both storage temperatures, an increase in the storage time led to a statistically significant increase in the migration rate of phthalate compounds (p<.01). Regarding this, the highest migration rate occurred after 60 days of storage in to the samples. Furthermore, it was revealed bis (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate had a higher migration rate at 40 °C than at 20 °C which showed that an increase in the storage temperature would lead to an increase in the migration rate. The highest migration rate occurred in relation to salad oil stored at 40 °C and after 60 days of storage.

Keywords: salad oil, migration rate, polyethylene terephthalate, bis (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate

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Authors: Tlou J. Ramabu

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Programming is one of the challenging subjects in the field of computing. In the higher education sphere, some programming novices’ performance, retention rate, and success rate are not improving. Most of the time, the problem is caused by the slow pace of learning, difficulty in grasping the syntax of the programming language and poor logical skills. More importantly, programming forms part of major subjects within the field of computing. As a result, specialized pedagogical methods and innovation are highly recommended. Little research has been done on the potential productivity of the WhatsApp platform as part of a blended learning model. In this article, the authors discuss the WhatsApp group as a part of blended learning model incorporated for a group of programming novices. We discuss possible administrative activities for productive utilisation of the WhatsApp group on the blended learning overview. The aim is to take advantage of the popularity of WhatsApp and the time students spend on it for their educational purpose. We believe that blended learning featuring a WhatsApp group may ease novices’ cognitive load and strengthen their foundational programming knowledge and skills. This is a work in progress as the proposed blended learning model with WhatsApp incorporated is yet to be implemented.

Keywords: blended learning, higher education, WhatsApp, programming, novices, lecturers

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Authors: Fariba Azizi, Firoozeh Haghighi, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.

Keywords: cause of failure, linear degradation path, reliability function, expectation-maximization algorithm, intensity, masked data

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Authors: Hyun-Sook Lee, Hongjae Moon, Hwaebong Jung, Sumin Kim, Wooyoung Lee

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Low-temperature phase (LTP) of MnBi has attracted much attention because it has a larger coercivity than that of Nd-Fe-B at high temperature, which gives high potential as a permanent magnet material that can be used at such high temperature. We present variation in magnetic properties of MnBi films by controlling the numbers of Bi/Mn bilayer. The thin films of LTP-MnBi were fabricated onto glass substrates by UHV sputtering, followed by in-situ annealing process at an optimized condition of 350 °C and 1.5 hours. The composition ratio of Bi/Mn was adjusted by varying the thickness of Bi and Mn layers. The highest value of (BH)max ~ 8.6 MGOe at room temperature was obtained in one Bi/Mn bilayer with 34 nm Bi and 16 nm Mn. To investigate the effect of Bi/Mn multilayers on the magnetic properties, we increased the numbers of Bi/Mn bilayer up to five at which the total film thicknesses of Bi and Mn were fixed with 34 nm and 16 nm. The increase of coercivity was observed up to three layers from 4.8 kOe to 15.3 kOe and then suppression was appeared. A reversed behavior was exhibited in the magnetization. We found that these were closely related to a microstructural change of LTP-MnBi and a reduction of growth rate of LTP-MnBi by analyzing XRD and TEM results. We will discuss how the multilayered MnBi affects the magnetic properties in details.

Keywords: coercivity, MnBi, multilayer film, permanent magnet

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Authors: Muhammad Tariq A. Chaudhary

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Soil-structure interaction (SSI) in bridges under seismic excitation is a complex phenomenon which involves coupling between the non-linear behavior of bridge pier columns and SSI in the soil-foundation part. It is a common practice in the study of SSI to model the bridge piers as linear elastic while treating the soil and foundation with a non-linear or an equivalent linear modeling approach. Consequently, the contribution of soil and foundation to the SSI phenomenon is disproportionately highlighted. The present study considered non-linear behavior of bridge piers in FEM model of a 4-span, pile-supported bridge that was designed for five different soil conditions in a moderate seismic zone. The FEM model of the bridge system was subjected to a suite of 21 actual ground motions representative of three levels of earthquake hazard (i.e. Design Basis Earthquake, Functional Evaluation Earthquake and Maximum Considered Earthquake). Results of the FEM analysis were used to delineate the influence of pier column non-linearity and SSI on critical design parameters of the bridge system. It was found that pier column non-linearity influenced the bridge lateral displacement and base shear more than SSI for majority of the analysis cases for the class of bridge investigated in the study.

Keywords: bridge, FEM model, reinforced concrete pier, pile foundation, seismic loading, soil-structure interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 218

Authors: D. Tassalit, N. Chekir, O. Benhabiles, N. A. Laoufi, F. Bentahar

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In the setting of the waters purification, some molecules appear recalcitrant to the traditional treatments. The exploitation of the properties of some catalysts permits to amplify the oxidization performances with ultraviolet radiance and to remove this pollution by a non biological way. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of a photocatalysis oxidation system for organic pollutants treatment using a new reactor design and ZnO/TiO2 as a catalyst under UV light. Oxidative degradation of tylosin by hydroxyl radicals (OH°) was studied in aqueous medium using suspended forms of ZnO and TiO2. The results improve that the treatment was affected by many factors such as flow-rate of solution, initial pollutant concentration and catalyst concentration. The rate equation for the tylosin degradation followed first order kinetics and the rate-constants were determined. The reaction rate fitted well with Langmuir–Hinshelwood model and the removed ratio of tylosin was 97 % in less than 60 minutes. To determine the optimum catalyst loading, a series of experiments were carried out by varying the amount of catalyst from 0.05 to 0.5 g/L. The results demonstrate that the rate of photodegradation is optimum with catalyst loading of 0.1 g/L, reaction flow rate of 3.79 mL/s and solution natural pH. The rate was found to increase with the decrease in tylosin concentration from 30 to 5 mg/L. Therefore, this simple photoreactor design for the removal of organic pollutants has the potential to be used in wastewater treatment.

Keywords: advanced oxidation, photocatalysis, TiO2, ZnO, UV light, pharmaceuticals pollutants, Spiramycin, tylosin, wastewater treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Nafiseh Ebrahimi, Amir Jafari

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The study of humanoid character is of great interest to researchers in the field of robotics and biomechanics. One might want to know the forces and torques required to move a limb from an initial position to the desired destination position. Inverse dynamics is a helpful method to compute the force and torques for an articulated body limb. It enables us to know the joint torques required to rotate a link between two positions. Our goal in this study was to control a human-like articulated manipulator for a specific task of path tracking. For this purpose, the human arm was modeled with a three-link planar manipulator activated by Hill muscle model. Applying a proportional controller, values of force and torques applied to the joints were calculated by inverse dynamics, and then joints and muscle forces trajectories were computed and presented. To be more accurate to say, the kinematics of the muscle-joint space was formulated by which we defined the relationship between the muscle lengths and the geometry of the links and joints. Secondary, the kinematic of the links was introduced to calculate the position of the end-effector in terms of geometry. Then, we considered the modeling of Hill muscle dynamics, and after calculation of joint torques, finally, we applied them to the dynamics of the three-link manipulator obtained from the inverse dynamics to calculate the joint states, find and control the location of manipulator’s end-effector. The results show that the human arm model was successfully controlled to take the designated path of an ellipse precisely.

Keywords: arm manipulator, hill muscle model, six-muscle model, three-link lodel

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Authors: Retno Ambarwati Sigit Lestari

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Microalga is one of the organisms that can be considered ideal and potential for raw material of bioenergy production, because the content of lipids in microalga is relatively high. Microalga is an aquatic organism that produces complex organic compounds from inorganic molecules using carbon dioxide as a carbon source, and sunlight for energy supply. Microalga-CO₂ fixation has potential advantages over other carbon captures and storage approaches, such as wide distribution, high photosynthetic rate, good environmental adaptability, and ease of operation. The rates of growth and CO₂ capture of microalga are influenced by CO₂ concentration and light intensity. This study quantitatively investigates the effects of CO₂ concentration on the rates of growth and CO₂ capture of a type of microalga, cultivated in bioreactors. The works include laboratory experiments as well as mathematical modelling. The mathematical models were solved numerically and the accuracy of the model was tested by the experimental data. It turned out that the mathematical model proposed can well quantitatively describe the growth and CO₂ capture of microalga, in which the effects of CO₂ concentration can be observed.

Keywords: Microalga, CO2 concentration, photobioreactor, mathematical model

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Authors: Roy Y. C. Huang, J. S. Kuang, Hamdolah Behnam

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Beam-column connections play an important role in the reinforced concrete moment resisting frame (RCMRF), which is one of the most commonly used structural systems around the world. The premature failure of such connections would severely limit the seismic performance and increase the vulnerability of RCMRF. In the past decades, researchers primarily focused on investigating the structural behaviour and failure mechanisms of conventional beam-column joints, the beam width of which is either smaller than or equal to the column width, while studies in wide beam-column joints were scarce. This paper presents the preliminary experimental results of two full-scale exterior wide beam-column connections, which are mainly designed and detailed according to ACI 318-14 and ACI 352R-02, under reversed cyclic loading. The ratios of the design shear force to the nominal shear strength of these specimens are 1.0 and 1.7, respectively, so as to probe into differences of the joint shear strength between experimental results and predictions by design codes of practice. Flexural failure dominated in the specimen with ratio of 1.0 in which full-width plastic hinges were observed, while both beam hinges and post-peak joint shear failure occurred for the other specimen. No sign of premature joint shear failure was found which is inconsistent with ACI codes’ prediction. Finally, a modification of current codes of practice is provided to accurately predict the joint shear strength in wide beam-column joint.

Keywords: joint shear strength, reversed cyclic loading, seismic vulnerability, wide beam-column joints

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Authors: Kumaresh Selvakumar, Man Young Kim

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Wet scrubbers have found widespread use in cleaning contaminated gas streams because of their ability to remove particulates and based on the applications of scrubbing of marine engine exhaust gases by spraying sea-water. In order to examine the flow characteristics inside the scrubber, the model is designated with flow properties of hot air and water sprayer. The flow dynamics of evaporation of hot air by the injection of water droplets is the key factor considered in this paper. The flow behavior inside the scrubber was investigated from the previous works and to sum up the evaporation rate with respect to the concentration of water droplets are predicted to bring out the competent modelling. The numerical analysis using CFD facilitates in understanding the problem better and empathies the behavior of the model over its entire operating envelope.

Keywords: concentration of water droplets, evaporation rate, scrubber, water sprayer

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Authors: Cecília M. Antão, Paulo Jorge Nogueira

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Breast cancer (BC) is the first cause of cancer mortality among Portuguese women. This retrospective observational study aimed at identifying comorbidities associated with BC female patients admitted to Portuguese public hospitals (2010-2018), investigating the effect of comorbidities on BC mortality rate, and building a predictive model using logistic regression. Results showed that the BC mortality in Portugal decreased in this period and reached 4.37% in 2018. Adjusted odds ratio indicated that secondary malignant neoplasms of liver, of bone and bone marrow, congestive heart failure, and diabetes were associated with an increased chance of dying from breast cancer. Although the Lisbon district (the most populated area) accounted for the largest percentage of BC patients, the logistic regression model showed that, besides patient’s age, being resident in Bragança, Castelo Branco, or Porto districts was directly associated with an increase of the mortality rate.

Keywords: breast cancer, comorbidities, logistic regression, adjusted odds ratio

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

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The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins method, Holt’s method, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), exchange rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Padma Chutoo, Elena Kulinskaya, Ilyas Bakbergenuly, Nicholas Steel, Dmitri Pchejetski

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Stroke is associated with a significant risk of morbidity and mortality. There is scarcity of research on the long-term survival after first-ever ischaemic stroke (IS) events in England with regards to effects of different medical therapies and comorbidities. The objective of this study was to model the all-cause mortality after an IS diagnosis in the adult population of England. Using a retrospective case-control design, we extracted the electronic medical records of patients born prior to or in year 1960 in England with a first-ever ischaemic stroke diagnosis from January 1986 to January 2017 within the Health and Improvement Network (THIN) database. Participants with a history of ischaemic stroke were matched to 3 controls by sex and age at diagnosis and general practice. The primary outcome was the all-cause mortality. The hazards of the all-cause mortality were estimated using a Weibull-Cox survival model which included both scale and shape effects and a shared random effect of general practice. The model included sex, birth cohort, socio-economic status, comorbidities and medical therapies. 20,250 patients with a history of IS (cases) and 55,519 controls were followed up to 30 years. From 2008 to 2015, the one-year all-cause mortality for the IS patients declined with an absolute change of -0.5%. Preventive treatments to cases increased considerably over time. These included prescriptions of statins and antihypertensives. However, prescriptions for antiplatelet drugs decreased in the routine general practice since 2010. The survival model revealed a survival benefit of antiplatelet treatment to stroke survivors with hazard ratio (HR) of 0.92 (0.90 – 0.94). IS diagnosis had significant interactions with gender and age at entry and hypertension diagnosis. IS diagnosis was associated with high risk of all-cause mortality with HR= 3.39 (3.05-3.72) for cases compared to controls. Hypertension was associated with poor survival with HR = 4.79 (4.49 - 5.09) for hypertensive cases relative to non-hypertensive controls, though the detrimental effect of hypertension has not reached significance for hypertensive controls, HR = 1.19(0.82-1.56). This study of English primary care data showed that between 2008 and 2015, the rates of prescriptions of stroke preventive treatments increased, and a short-term all-cause mortality after IS stroke declined. However, stroke resulted in poor long-term survival. Hypertension, a modifiable risk factor, was found to be associated with poor survival outcomes in IS patients. Antiplatelet drugs were found to be protective to survival. Better efforts are required to reduce the burden of stroke through health service development and primary prevention.

Keywords: general practice, hazard ratio, health improvement network (THIN), ischaemic stroke, multiple imputation, Weibull-Cox model.

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Authors: N. Naga Subrahmanyeswara Rao, Parag Arvind Deshpande

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Understanding nucleotide synthesis reaction of any organism is beneficial to know the growth of it as in Mycobacterium tuberculosis to design anti TB drug. One of the reactions of de novo pathway which takes place in all organisms was considered. The reaction takes places between phosphoribosyl pyrophosphate and orotate catalyzed by orotate phosphoribosyl transferase and divalent metal ion gives orotdine monophosphate, a nucleotide. All the reaction steps of three experimentally proposed mechanisms for this reaction were considered to develop kinetic rate expression. The model was validated using the data for four organisms. This model could successfully describe the kinetics for the reported data. The developed model can serve as a reliable model to describe the kinetics in new organisms without the need of mechanistic determination. So an organism-independent model was developed.

Keywords: mechanism, nucleotide, organism, tuberculosis

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Authors: Sherry Ann Ganase, Sandra Sookram

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In this paper, the vulnerability level to climate change is analysed using a comprehensive index, consisting of five pillars: human, social, natural, physical, and financial. A structural equation model is also applied to determine the indicators and relationships that exist between the observed environmental changes and the quality of life. Using survey data to model the results, a value of 0.382 is derived as the vulnerability level for San Pedro, where values closer to zero indicates lower vulnerability and values closer to one indicates higher vulnerability. The results showed the social pillar to be most vulnerable, with the indicator ‘participation’ ranked the highest in its cohort. Although, the environmental pillar is ranked as least vulnerable, the indicators ‘hazard’ and ‘biodiversity’ obtained scores closer to 0.4, suggesting that changes in the environment are occurring from natural and anthropogenic activities. These changes can negatively influence the quality of life as illustrated in the structural equation modelling. The study concludes by reporting on the need for collective action and participation by households in lowering vulnerability to ensure sustainable development and livelihood.

Keywords: climate change, participation, San Pedro, structural equation model, vulnerability index

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Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

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Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling. In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence, in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code (UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel radius and joint spacing.

Keywords: water inflow, tunnel, discontinues rock, numerical simulation

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Authors: Muhammed Ordu, Eren Demir, Chris Tofallis

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Over the past decade, the non-elective admissions in the UK have increased significantly. Taking into account limited resources (i.e. beds), the related service managers are obliged to manage their resources effectively due to the non-elective admissions which are mostly admitted to inpatient specialities via A&E departments. Geriatric medicine is one of specialities that have long length of stay for the non-elective admissions. This study aims to develop a discrete event simulation model to understand how possible increases on non-elective demand over the next 12 months affect the bed occupancy rate and to determine required number of beds in a geriatric medicine speciality in a UK hospital. In our validated simulation model, we take into account observed frequency distributions which are derived from a big data covering the period April, 2009 to January, 2013, for the non-elective admission and the length of stay. An experimental analysis, which consists of 16 experiments, is carried out to better understand possible effects of case studies and scenarios related to increase on demand and number of bed. As a result, the speciality does not achieve the target level in the base model although the bed occupancy rate decreases from 125.94% to 96.41% by increasing the number of beds by 30%. In addition, the number of required beds is more than the number of beds considered in the scenario analysis in order to meet the bed requirement. This paper sheds light on bed management for service managers in geriatric medicine specialities.

Keywords: bed management, bed occupancy rate, discrete event simulation, geriatric medicine, non-elective admission

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

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This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: Surya R. Niraula, Devendra B Chhetry, Girish K. Singh, S. Nagesh, Frederick A. Connell

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Background: Although random sampling is generally considered to be the gold standard for population-based research, the majority of drug abuse research is based on non-random sampling despite the well-known limitations of this kind of sampling. Method: We compared the statistical properties of two surveys of drug abuse in the same community: one using snowball sampling of drug users who then identified “friend controls” and the other using a random sample of non-drug users (controls) who then identified “friend cases.” Models to predict drug abuse based on risk factors were developed for each data set using conditional logistic regression. We compared the precision of each model using bootstrapping method and the predictive properties of each model using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: Analysis of 100 random bootstrap samples drawn from the snowball-sample data set showed a wide variation in the standard errors of the beta coefficients of the predictive model, none of which achieved statistical significance. One the other hand, bootstrap analysis of the random-sample data set showed less variation, and did not change the significance of the predictors at the 5% level when compared to the non-bootstrap analysis. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves using the model derived from the random-sample data set was similar when fitted to either data set (0.93, for random-sample data vs. 0.91 for snowball-sample data, p=0.35); however, when the model derived from the snowball-sample data set was fitted to each of the data sets, the areas under the curve were significantly different (0.98 vs. 0.83, p < .001). Conclusion: The proposed method of random sampling of controls appears to be superior from a statistical perspective to snowball sampling and may represent a viable alternative to snowball sampling.

Keywords: drug abuse, matched case-control study, non-probability sampling, probability sampling

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Authors: B. N. Asare, O. A. Ajigini

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Information systems (IS) are highly important in the operation of private and public organisations in developing and developed countries. Developing countries are saddled with many project failures during the implementation of information systems. However, successful information systems are greatly needed in developing countries in order to enhance their economies. This paper is highly important in view of the high failure rate of information systems in developing countries which needs to be reduced to minimum acceptable levels by means of recommended interventions. This paper centres on a review of IS development in developing countries. The paper presents evidences of the IS successes and failures in developing countries and posits a model to address the IS failures. The proposed model can then be utilised by developing countries to reduce their IS project implementation failure rate. A comparison is drawn between IS development in developing countries and developed countries. The paper provides valuable information to assist in reducing IS failure, and developing IS models and theories on IS development for developing countries.

Keywords: developing countries, information systems, IS development, information systems failure, information systems success, information systems success model

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Authors: John Adebayo Oloyhede

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This paper examines effect of financial liberalization on the stability of the demand for money function and its implication for exchange rate behaviour of three African countries. As the demand for money function is regarded as one of the two main building blocks of most exchange rate determination models, the other being purchasing power parity, its stability is required for the monetary models of exchange rate determination to hold. To what extent has the liberalisation policy of these countries, for instance liberalised interest rate, affected the demand for money function and what has been the consequence on the validity and relevance of floating exchange rate models? The study adopts the Autoregressive Instrumental Package (AIV) of multiple regression technique and followed the Almon Polynomial procedure with zero-end constraint. Data for the period 1986 to 2011 were drawn from three developing countries of Africa, namely: Gambia, Ghana and Nigeria, which did not only start the liberalization and floating system almost at the same period but share similar and diverse economic and financial structures. Its findings show that the demand for money was a stable function of income and interest rate at home and abroad. Other factors such as exchange rate and foreign interest rate exerted some significant effect on domestic money demand. The short-run and long-run elasticity with respect to income, interest rates, expected inflation rate and exchange rate expectation are not greater than zero. This evidence conforms to some extent to the expected behaviour of the domestic money function and underscores its ability to serve as good building block or assumption of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. This will, therefore, assist appropriate monetary authorities in the design and implementation of further financial liberalization policy packages in developing countries.

Keywords: financial liberalisation, exchange rates, demand for money, developing economies

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Authors: Boulis M. Ibrahim, Iordanis A. Kalaitzoglou

Abstract:

A micro structural pricing model is proposed in which price components account for learning by incorporating changing expectations of the trading intensity and the risk level of incoming trades. An analysis of European carbon futures transactions finds expected trading intensity to increase the information component and decrease the liquidity component of price changes, but at different rates. Among the results, the expected persistence in trading intensity explains the majority of the auto correlations in the level and the conditional volatility of price changes, helps predict hourly patterns in the bid–ask spread and differentiates between the impact of buy versus sell and continuing versus reversing trades.

Keywords: CO2 emission allowances, market microstructure, duration, price discovery

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Authors: Ogan Karabas, Suleyman Yigit

Abstract:

Number of blade and blade type of centrifugal fans are the most decisive factor on the field of application, noise level, suction pressure and outlet mass flow rate. Nowadays, in order to determine these effects on centrifugal fans, numerical studies are carried out in addition to experimental studies. In this study, it is aimed to numerically investigate the changes of suction pressure and outlet mass flow rate values of a centrifugal fan according to the number of blade and blade type. Centrifugal fans of the same size with forward, backward and straight blade type were analyzed by using a simulation program and compared with each other. This analysis was carried out under steady state condition by selecting k-Ɛ turbulence model and air is assumed incompressible. Then, 16, 32 and 48 blade centrifugal fans were again analyzed by using same simulation program, and the optimum number of blades was determined for the suction pressure and the outlet mass flow rate. According to the results of the analysis, it was obtained that the suction pressure in the 32 blade fan was twice the value obtained in the 16 blade fan. In addition, the outlet mass flow rate increased by 45% with the increase in the number of blade from 16 to 32. There is no significant change observed on the suction pressure and outlet mass flow rate when the number of blades increased from 32 to 48. In the light of the analysis results, the optimum blade number was determined as 32.

Keywords: blade type, centrifugal fan, cfd, outlet mass flow rate, suction pressure

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Authors: Huimin Liu, Li Xiang, Yue Liu, Jing Wang

Abstract:

Background: As one of typical case for the developing countries who are stepping into the aging times globally, more and more older people in China might face the problem of which they could not maintain normal life due to the functional disability. While the government take efforts to build long-term care system and further carry out related policies for the core concept, there is still lack of strong evidence to evaluating the profile of disability states in the elderly population and its transition rate. It has been proved that disability is a dynamic condition of the person rather than irreversible so it means possible to intervene timely on them who might be in a risk of severe disability. Objective: The aim of this study was to depict the picture of the disability transferring status of the older people in China, and then find out individual characteristics that change the state of disability to provide theory basis for disability prevention and early intervention among elderly people. Methods: Data for this study came from the 2011 baseline survey and the 2013 follow-up survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Normal ADL function, 1~2 ADLs disability,3 or above ADLs disability and death were defined from state 1 to state 4. Multi-state Markov model was applied and the four-state homogeneous model with discrete states and discrete times from two visits follow-up data was constructed to explore factors for various progressive stages. We modeled the effect of explanatory variables on the rates of transition by using a proportional intensities model with covariate, such as gender. Result: In the total sample, state 2 constituent ratio is nearly about 17.0%, while state 3 proportion is blow the former, accounting for 8.5%. Moreover, ADL disability statistics difference is not obvious between two years. About half of the state 2 in 2011 improved to become normal in 2013 even though they get elder. However, state 3 transferred into the proportion of death increased obviously, closed to the proportion back to state 2 or normal functions. From the estimated intensities, we see the older people are eleven times as likely to develop at 1~2 ADLs disability than dying. After disability onset (state 2), progression to state 3 is 30% more likely than recovery. Once in state 3, a mean of 0.76 years is spent before death or recovery. In this model, a typical person in state 2 has a probability of 0.5 of disability-free one year from now while the moderate disabled or above has a probability of 0.14 being dead. Conclusion: On the long-term care cost considerations, preventive programs for delay the disability progression of the elderly could be adopted based on the current disabled state and main factors of each stage. And in general terms, those focusing elderly individuals who are moderate or above disabled should go first.

Keywords: Markov model, elderly people, disability, transition intensity

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Authors: Yalda Zarnegarnia, Shari Messinger

Abstract:

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have been widely used in medical research to illustrate the performance of the biomarker in correctly distinguishing the diseased and non-diseased groups. Correlated biomarker data arises in study designs that include subjects that contain same genetic or environmental factors. The information about correlation might help to identify family members at increased risk of disease development, and may lead to initiating treatment to slow or stop the progression to disease. Approaches appropriate to a case-control design matched by family identification, must be able to accommodate both the correlation inherent in the design in correctly estimating the biomarker’s ability to differentiate between cases and controls, as well as to handle estimation from a matched case control design. This talk will review some developed methods for ROC curve estimation in settings with correlated data from case control design and will discuss the limitations of current methods for analyzing correlated familial paired data. An alternative approach using Conditional ROC curves will be demonstrated, to provide appropriate ROC curves for correlated paired data. The proposed approach will use the information about the correlation among biomarker values, producing conditional ROC curves that evaluate the ability of a biomarker to discriminate between diseased and non-diseased subjects in a familial paired design.

Keywords: biomarker, correlation, familial paired design, ROC curve

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