Search results for: climatic risk management

Authors: Mohammed Saif Al-Saidi, John P. T. Mo

Abstract:

Modern engineering assets are complex and very high in value. They are expected to function for years to come, with ability to handle the change in technology and ageing modification. The aging of an engineering asset and continues increase of vendors and contractors numbers forces the asset operation management (or Owner) to design an asset system which can capture these changes. Furthermore, an accurate performance measurement and risk evaluation processes are highly needed. Therefore, this paper explores the nature of the asset management system performance evaluation for an engineering asset based on the System Support Engineering (SSE) principles. The research work explores the asset support system from a range of perspectives, interviewing managers from across a refinery organisation. The factors contributing to complexity of an asset management system are described in context which clusters them into several key areas. It is proposed that SSE framework may then be used as a tool for analysis and management of asset. The paper will conclude with discussion of potential application of the framework and opportunities for future research.

Keywords: asset management, performance, evaluation, modern engineering, System Support Engineering (SSE)

Procedia PDF Downloads 678

Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

Abstract:

There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Eakarat Boonreang, Anothai Harasarn

Abstract:

The objectives of this study are to investigate the flood disaster management capacity of communities in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand, and to recommend the sustainable flood management approaches of communities in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand. The selected population consisted of the community leaders and committees, the executives of local administrative organizations, and the head of Ubon Ratchathani provincial office of disaster prevention and mitigation. The data was collected by in-depth interview, focus group, and observation. The data was analyzed and classified in order to determine the communities’ capacity in flood disaster management. The results revealed that communities’ capacity were as follows, before flood disaster, the community leaders held a meeting with the community committees in order to plan disaster response and determined evacuation routes, and the villagers moved their belongings to higher places and prepared vehicles for evacuation. During flood disaster, the communities arranged motorboats for transportation and villagers evacuated to a temporary evacuation center. Moreover, the communities asked for survival bags, motorboats, emergency toilets, and drinking water from the local administrative organizations and the 22nd Military Circle. After flood disaster, the villagers cleaned and fixed their houses and also collaborated in cleaning the temple, school, and other places in the community. The recommendation approaches for sustainable flood disaster management consisted of structural measures, such as the establishment of reservoirs and building higher houses, and non-structural measures such as raising awareness and fostering self-reliance, establishing disaster management plans, rehearsal of disaster response procedures every year, and transferring disaster knowledge among younger generations. Moreover, local administrative organizations should formulate strategic plans that focus on disaster management capacity building at the community level, particularly regarding non-structural measures. Ubon Ratchathani provincial offices of disaster prevention and mitigation should continually monitor and evaluate the outcomes of community based disaster risk management program, including allocating more flood disaster management-related resources among local administrative organizations and communities.

Keywords: capacity building, community based disaster risk management, flood disaster management, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: F. Allag, S. Bouharati, M. Belmahdi, R. Zegadi

Abstract:

The rapid expansion of deserts in recent decades as a result of human actions combined with climatic changes has highlighted the necessity to understand biological processes in arid environments. Whereas physical processes and the biology of flora and fauna have been relatively well studied in marginally used arid areas, knowledge of desert soil micro-organisms remains fragmentary. The objective of this study is to conduct a diversity analysis of bacterial communities in unvegetated arid soils. Several biological phenomena in hot deserts related to microbial populations and the potential use of micro-organisms for restoring hot desert environments. Dry land ecosystems have a highly heterogeneous distribution of resources, with greater nutrient concentrations and microbial densities occurring in vegetated than in bare soils. In this work, we found it useful to use techniques of artificial intelligence in their treatment especially artificial neural networks (ANN). The use of the ANN model, demonstrate his capability for addressing the complex problems of uncertainty data.

Keywords: desert soil, climatic changes, bacteria, vegetation, artificial neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

Abstract:

Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Matthew P. Mancini, Vincent Ribiere

Abstract:

Today’s workers face more numerous and complex challenges and are required to be increasingly interdependent and faster learners. Knowledge sharing activities between people have been understood as a significant element affecting organizational innovation performance. While they do have the potential to spark cognitive conflict, disagreement is important from an organizational perspective because it can stimulate the development of new ideas and perhaps pave the way for creativity, innovation, and competitive advantage. How teams cope with the cognitive conflict dimension of knowledge sharing and the associated interpersonal risk is what captures our attention. Specifically, assertive conflict management strategies have a positive influence on knowledge sharing behaviors, and team psychological safety has a positive influence on knowledge sharing intention. This paper focuses on explaining the impact that these factors have on the shaping of an individual’s decision to engage or not in knowledge sharing activities. To accomplish this, we performed an empirical analysis on the results of our questionnaire about knowledge-sharing related conflict management and team psychological safety in pharmaceutical enterprises located in North America, Europe, and Asia. First, univariate analysis is used to characterize behavior regarding conflict management strategy into two groups. Group 1 presents assertive conflict management strategies and group 2 shows unassertive ones. Then, by using SEM methodology, we evaluated the relationships between them and the team psychological safety construct with the knowledge sharing process. The results of the SEM analysis show that assertive conflict management strategies affect the knowledge sharing process the most with a small, but significant effect from team psychological safety. The findings suggest that assertive conflict management strategies are just as important as knowledge sharing intentions for encouraging knowledge sharing behavior. This paper provides clear insights into how employees manage the sharing of their knowledge in the face of conflict and interpersonal risk and the relative importance of these factors in sustaining productive knowledge sharing activities.

Keywords: cognitive dissonance, conflict management, knowledge sharing, organizational behavior, psychological safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: Kais Ben-Ahmed, Mhamed Ali-El-Aroui

Abstract:

This paper develops a Local Generalized Linear Spatial Model (LGLSM) to describe the spatial variation of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) infection risk in northern and central Tunisia. The response from each region is a number of affected children less than five years of age recorded from 1996 through 2006 from Tunisian pediatric departments and treated as a poison county level data. The model includes climatic factors, namely averages of annual rainfall, extreme values of low temperatures in winter and high temperatures in summer to characterize the climate of each region according to each continentality index, the pluviometric quotient of Emberger (Q2) to characterize bioclimatic regions and component for residual extra-poison variation. The statistical results show the progressive increase in the number of affected children in regions with high continentality index and low mean yearly rainfull. On the other hand, an increase in pluviometric quotient of Emberger contributed to a significant increase in VL incidence rate. When compared with the original GLSM, Bayesian locally modeling is improvement and gives a better approximation of the Tunisian VL risk estimation. According to the Bayesian approach inference, we use vague priors for all parameters model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Keywords: generalized linear spatial model, local model, extra-poisson variation, continentality index, visceral leishmaniasis, Tunisia

Procedia PDF Downloads 397

Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

Abstract:

Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: A. A. AlRasheed, A. Atkins, R. Campion

Abstract:

This paper focuses on using knowledge management and visualisation concepts to improve the patients and hospitals employee’s workflow. Hospitals workflow is a complex and complicated process and poor patient flow can put both patients and a hospital’s reputation at risk, and can threaten the facility’s financial sustainability. Healthcare leaders are under increased pressure to reduce costs while maintaining or increasing patient care standards. In this paper, a framework is proposed to help improving patient experience, staff satisfaction, and operational efficiency across hospitals by using knowledge management based visualisation concepts. This framework is using real-time visibility to track and monitor location and status of patients, staff, rooms, and medical equipment.

Keywords: knowledge management, improvements, visualisation, workflow

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: Farnaz Nazem

Abstract:

The aim of sustainable architecture is to design buildings with the least adverse effects on the environment and provide better conditions for people. What building forms make the best use of land? This question was addressed in the late 1960s at the center of Land Use and Built Form Studies in Cambridge. This led to a number of influential papers which had a great influence on the practice of urban design. This paper concentrates on the results of sustainability caused by climatic conditions in Iranian traditional architecture in hot-arid regions. As people spent a significant amount of their time in houses, it was very important to have such houses to fulfill their needs physically and spiritually as well as satisfying their cultural and religious aspects of their lifestyles. In a vast country such as Iran with different climatic zones, traditional builders have presented series of logical solutions for human comfort. These solutions have been able to response to the environmental problems for a long period of time. As a result, by considering the experience in traditional architecture of hot–arid climate in Iran, it is possible to attain sustainable architecture.

Keywords: hot-arid climate, Iran, sustainable traditional architecture, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 472

Authors: Mehrnoosh Mirzaei

Abstract:

Children are among the most vulnerable at the occurrence of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Most of the management and measures which are considered for both before and during an earthquake are neither suitable nor efficient for this age group and cannot be applied. On the other hand, due to their age, it is hard to educate and train children to learn and understand the concept of earthquake risk mitigation as matters like earthquake prevention and safe places during an earthquake are not easily perceived. To our knowledge, children’s awareness of such concepts via their own world with the help of games is the best training method in this case. In this article, the researcher has tried to consider the child an active element before and during the earthquake. With training, provided by adults before the incidence of an earthquake, the child has the ability to learn disaster risk reduction (DRR). The focus of this research is on learning risk reduction behavior and regarding children as an individual element. The information of this article has been gathered from library resources, observations and the drawings of 10 children aged 5 whose subject was their conceptual definition of an earthquake who were asked to illustrate their conceptual definition of an earthquake; the results of 20 questionnaires filled in by preschoolers along with information gathered by interviewing them. The design of the suitable educational game, appropriate for the needs of this age group, has been made based on the theory of design with help of the user and the priority of children’s learning needs. The final result is a package of a game which is comprised of a learning table and matching cards showing sign marks for safe and unsafe places which introduce the safe behaviors and safe locations before and during the earthquake. These educational games can be used both in group contexts in kindergartens and on an individual basis at home, and they help in earthquake risk reduction.

Keywords: disaster education, earthquake sign marks, learning table, matching card, risk reduction behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Giovanni Menichini, Salvatore Giacomo Morano, Gloria Terenzi, Luca Salvatori, Maurizio Orlando

Abstract:

The “Guidelines for Risk Classification, Safety Assessment, and Structural Health Monitoring of Existing Bridges” were recently approved by the Italian Government to define technical standards for managing the national network of existing bridges. These guidelines provide a framework for risk mitigation and safety assessment of bridges, which are essential elements of the built environment and form the basis for the operation of transport systems. Within the guideline framework, a workflow based on three main points was proposed: (1) risk-based, i.e., based on typical parameters of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure; (2) multi-level, i.e., including six assessment levels of increasing complexity; and (3) multirisk, i.e., assessing structural/foundational, seismic, hydrological, and landslide risks. The paper focuses on applying the Italian Guidelines to specific case studies, aiming to identify the parameters that predominantly influence the determination of the “class of attention”. The significance of each parameter is determined via sensitivity analysis. Additionally, recommendations for enhancing the process of assigning the class of attention are proposed.

Keywords: bridge safety assessment, Italian guidelines implementation, risk classification, structural health monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: S. Anastasiou, C. Nathanailides, S. Logothetis, G. Kanlis

Abstract:

The Greek aquaculture industry is second most important economic sector for the growth of the Greek Economy. The purpose of the present work is to present some data for the management challenges that the Aquaculture industry in Greece is currently facing. Currently the Greek aquaculture industry is going through a series of mergers and restructure. The financial status of the different aquaculture companies, the working conditions and management practices may vary according to lending exposure, market mix, company size, and technological parameters of the different fish farm units and rearing systems. Frequently, the aquaculture personnel are exposed to harsh environmental conditions and to occupational risk. Furthermore, there is pressure on the personnel of fish farms to constantly improve their production efficiency and to enhance their work skills to the new methods and practices which are adopted by the aquaculture industry. There is some data to suggest the existence of gender inequality in the workforce of Greek fish farms. Women are paid less, frequently absent higher managerial positions and most of the male workmates consider the job to harsh for women. Nevertheless, high level of job satisfaction was observed in both men and women. This high level of job satisfaction of the aquaculture personnel can be attributed, at least partially, to the nature of the work which has a very distinct working environment but most of the staff has very positive experiences with the interaction with their workmates and the satisfaction of being in a business which always exceeds its production target. Indeed, there is some evidence to suggest that the Greek aquaculture industry is always exceeding its production targets, while it is rapidly adopting and improving new technology, constantly improving of human resources management practices, which include constant training of the staff, very good communication channels between management and the personnel and reducing the risk of occupational hazard to the aquaculture personnel. All these parameters of management may have a determining role for the volume and quality of the production and future of this sector in Greece.

Keywords: aquaculture, fish quality, management, production targets

Procedia PDF Downloads 442

Authors: Jieh-Jiuh Wang

Abstract:

Disasters happen frequently due to the global climate changes today. The cultural heritage conservation should be considered from the perspectives of surrounding environments and large-scale disasters. Most current thoughts about the disaster prevention of cultural heritages in Taiwan are single-point thoughts emphasizing firefighting, decay prevention, and construction reinforcement and ignoring the whole concept of the environment. The traditional conservation cannot defend against more and more tremendous and frequent natural disasters caused by climate changes. More and more cultural heritages are confronting the high risk of disasters. This study adopts the perspective of risk identification and takes flood as the main disaster category. It analyzes the amount and categories of cultural heritages that might suffer from disasters with the geographic information system integrating the latest flooding potential data from National Fire Agency and Water Resources Agency and the basic data of cultural heritages. It examines the actual risk of cultural heritages confronting floods and serves as the accordance for future considerations of risk measures and preparation for reducing disasters. The result of the study finds the positive relationship between the disaster affected situation of national cultural heritages and the rainfall intensity. The order of impacted level by floods is historical buildings, historical sites indicated by municipalities and counties, and national historical sites and relics. However, traditional settlements and cultural landscapes are not impacted. It might be related to the taboo space in the traditional culture of site selection (concepts of disaster avoidance). As for the regional distribution on the other hand, cultural heritages in central and northern Taiwan suffer from more shocking floods, while the heritages in northern and eastern Taiwan suffer from more serious flooding depth.

Keywords: cultural heritage, flood, preventive conservation, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Linda Kauškale, Ineta Geipele

Abstract:

Due to the rapidly changing external environment, portfolio management strategies became closely interconnected with real estate industry development and macroeconomic development tendencies. The aim of the research is to analyze sustainable real estate market development influencing factors, with particular focus on its economic and management aspects that influences real estate investment decisions as well. Scientific literature and article analysis, data analysis, expert evaluation, and other quantitative and qualitative research methods were used in the research. Developed real estate market sustainability model and index analysis approach can be applied by investors and real estate companies in real estate asset management and can help in risk minimization activities in international entrepreneurship. Future research directions have been identified in the research as well.

Keywords: indexes, investment decisions, real estate market, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 360

Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

Abstract:

Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: ebola, epidemic risk, medical ethics, medical humanities

Procedia PDF Downloads 450

Authors: Mohamed Abdalla Elamein Boshara, Peter Charles Woods, Nour Eldin Mohamed Elshaiekh

Abstract:

Knowledge Management has become very important for Disaster Management response and planning. This paper proposes the implementation of a Knowledge Management System with a sustainable data collection mechanism for reliable and timely information management to support decision makers in making the right decisions in the timely manner.

Keywords: knowledge management, disaster management, incident tracking, web application

Procedia PDF Downloads 780

Authors: Faith Eweluegim Enahoro-Ofagbe

Abstract:

Worldwide, every nation is experiencing the effects of global warming. In developing countries, due to the heavy reliance on agriculture for socioeconomic growth and security, among other things, these countries are more affected by climate change, particularly with the availability of water. Floods, droughts, rising temperatures, saltwater intrusion, groundwater depletion, and other severe environmental alterations are all brought on by climatic change. Life depends on water, a vital resource; these ecological changes affect all water use, including agriculture and household water use. Therefore adequate and adaptive water usage strategies for sustainability are essential in developing countries. Therefore, this paper investigates Nigeria's challenges due to climate change and adaptive techniques that have evolved in response to such issues to ensure water management and sustainability for irrigation and provide quality water to residents. Questionnaires were distributed to respondents in the study area, central Nigeria, for quantitative evaluation of sustainable water resource management techniques. Physicochemical analysis was done, collecting soil and water samples from several locations under investigation. Findings show that farmers use different methods, ranging from intelligent technologies to traditional strategies for water resource management. Also, farmers need to learn better water resource management techniques for sustainability. Since more residents obtain their water from privately held sources, the government should enforce legislation to ensure that private borehole construction businesses treat water sources of poor quality before the general public uses them.

Keywords: developing countries, irrigation, strategies, sustainability, water resource management, water usage

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Malihe Motiei, Nor Hidayati Zakaria, Davide Aloini

Abstract:

This study aims to present a method to develop the failure measurement model for ERP post-implementation. To achieve this outcome, the study firstly evaluates the suitability of Technology-Organization-Environment framework for the proposed conceptual model. This study explains how to discover the constructs and subsequently to design and evaluate the constructs as formative or reflective. Constructs are used including reflective and purely formative. Then, the risk dimensions are investigated to determine the instruments to examine the impact of risk on ERP failure after implementation. Two construct as formative constructs consist inadequate implementation and poor organizational decision making. Subsequently six construct as reflective construct include technical risks, operational risks, managerial risks, top management risks, lack of external risks, and user’s inefficiency risks. A survey was conducted among Iranian industries to collect data. 69 data were collected from manufacturing sectors and the data were analyzed by Smart PLS software. The results indicated that all measurements included 39 critical risk factors were acceptable for the ERP post-implementation failure model.

Keywords: critical risk factors (CRFs), ERP projects, ERP post-implementation, measurement instruments, ERP system failure measurement model

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Niyanta Mehra, Aakriti Khurania, Kshitij Rastogi, S. K. Garg

Abstract:

There is plenty of literature available that accounts for complexity management in a supply chain. A major fraction of this literature considers a large number of parameters in order to devise management techniques. However, multiple such parameters do not directly affect the result, and incorporating these can make the analyses overly complicated. Most of the causes of supply chain inefficiencies are due to the interconnectedness and interdependencies in the structure, processes, and environment of the supply chains. The level of complexity varies across industries in terms of intensity and ease of management. After a review of the literature related to complexities in supply chains, the paper attempts to build a framework to study the relative significance of these complexities. This paper aims to identify critical complexities for the garment industry. Understanding and controlling these complexities open avenues for better supply chain management and also assist decision-makers in the garment industry in formulating risk mitigation strategies.

Keywords: complexity dimensions, garment industry, supply chain complexity, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

Abstract:

Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

Procedia PDF Downloads 557

Authors: Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

Abstract:

Drought is a complicated natural phenomenon that creates significant economic, social, and environmental problems. An analysis of paleoclimatic data indicates that severe and extended droughts are inevitable part of natural climatic circle. This study characterised drought in Lejweleputswa using both Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and neural networks (NN) to quantify and predict respectively. Monthly 37-year long time series precipitation data were obtained from online NASA database. Prior to the final analysis, this dataset was checked for outliers using SPSS. Outliers were removed and replaced by Expectation Maximum algorithm from SPSS. This was followed by both homogeneity and stationarity tests to ensure non-spurious results. A non-parametric Mann Kendall's test was used to detect monotonic trends present in the dataset. Two temporal scales SPI-3 and SPI-12 corresponding to agricultural and hydrological drought events showed statistically decreasing trends with p-value = 0.0006 and 4.9 x 10⁻⁷, respectively. The study area has been plagued with severe drought events on SPI-3, while on SPI-12, it showed approximately a 20-year circle. The concluded the analyses with a seasonal analysis that showed no significant trend patterns, and as such NN was used to predict possible SPI-3 for the last season of 2018/2019 and four seasons for 2020. The predicted drought intensities ranged from mild to extreme drought events to come. It is therefore recommended that farmers, agri-business owners, and other relevant stakeholders' resort to drought resistant crops as means of adaption.

Keywords: drought, risk, neural networks, agri-businesses, project, Lejweleputswa

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

Abstract:

The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Y. Tahat, T. Dunne, S. Fifield, D. Power

Abstract:

Information about a firm’s usage of Financial Instruments (FIs) plays a very important role in determining its financial position and performance. Yet accounting standard-setters have encountered problems when deciding on the FI-related disclosures which firms must make. The primary objective of this paper is to review the extant literature on FI disclosure. This objective is achieved by surveying the literature on: the corporate usage of FIs; the different accounting standards adopted concerning FIs; and empirical studies on FI disclosure. This review concludes that the current research on FI disclosure has generated a number of useful insights. In particular, the paper reports that: FIs are a very important risk management mechanism in ensuring that companies have the cash available to make value-enhancing investments, however, without a clear set of risk management objectives, using such instruments can be dangerous; accounting standards concerning FIs have resulted in enhanced transparency about the usage of these instruments; and FI-related information is a key input into investors’ decision-making processes. Finally, the paper provides a number of suggestions for future research in the area.

Keywords: financial instruments, financial reporting, accounting standards, value relevance, corporate disclosure

Procedia PDF Downloads 412

Authors: Kirti Tewari, Rahul Dev

Abstract:

Solar water heating is a thermodynamic process of heating water using sunlight with the help of solar water heater. Thus, solar water heater is a device used to harness solar energy. In this paper, a modified solar water heating system (MSWHS) has been proposed over flat plate collector (FPC) and Evacuated tube collector (ETC). The modifications include selection of materials other than glass, and glass wool which are conventionally used for fabricating FPC and ETC. Some modifications in design have also been proposed. Its collector is made of double layer of semi-cylindrical acrylic tubes and fibre reinforced plastic (FRP) insulation base. Water tank is made of double layer of acrylic sheet except base and north wall. FRP is used in base and north wall of the water tank. A concept of equivalent thickness has been utilised for calculating the dimensions of collector plate, acrylic tube and tank. A thermal model for the proposed design of MSWHS is developed and simulation is carried out on MATLAB for the capacity of 200L MSWHS having collector area of 1.6 m2, length of acrylic tubes of 2m at an inclination angle 25° which is taken nearly equal to the latitude of the given location. Latitude of Allahabad is 24.45° N. The results show that the maximum temperature of water in tank and tube has been found to be 71.2°C and 73.3°C at 17:00hr and 16:00hr respectively in March for the climatic data of Allahabad. Theoretical performance analysis has been carried out by varying number of tubes of collector, the tank capacity and climatic data for given months of winter and summer.

Keywords: acrylic, fibre reinforced plastic, solar water heating, thermal model, conventional water heaters

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

Abstract:

Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: risk, control, banking, FMECA, criticality

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: Imtiaz Ali, Imam Mansoor

Abstract:

Investigations as a part of the academic study were undertaken to identify and evaluate the significant risks associated with the construction of K-span buildings in the region of UAE. Primary field data was collected through questionnaires obtaining specific open and close-ended questions from carefully selected construction firms, civil engineers and, construction manager regarding risks associated to K-span building construction. Historical data available for other regions of the same construction technique was available which was compared for identifying various non-critical and critical risk parameters by comparative evaluation techniques to come up with important risks and potential sources for their control and minimization in K-Span buildings that is increasing in the region. The associated risks have been determined with their Relative Importance Index (RII) values of which Risk involved in Change of Design required by Owners carries the highest value (RII=0.79) whereas, Delayed Payment by Owner to Contractor is one of the least (RII=0.42) value. The overall findings suggest that most relative risks as quantified originate or associated with the contractors. It may be concluded that project proponents undertaking K-span projects in planning and budgeting the cost and delays should take into account of risks on high account if changes in design are also required any delays in the material by the supplier would then be a major risk in K-span project delay. Since projects are, less costly, so owners have limited budgets, then they hire small contractors, which are not highly competent contractors. So study suggests that owner should be aware of these types of risks associated with the construction of K-span buildings in order to make it cost effective.

Keywords: k-span buildings, k-span construction, risk management, relative improvement index (RII)

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Abhijit Trailokya

Abstract:

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD’s) are the major cause of morbidity and mortality in both developed and developing countries. Many clinical trials have demonstrated that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering, reduces the incidence of coronary and cerebrovascular events across a broad spectrum of patients at risk. Guidelines for the management of patients at risk have been established in Europe and North America. The guidelines have advocated progressively lower LDL-C targets and more aggressive use of statin therapy. In Indian patients, comprehensive data on dyslipidemia management and its treatment outcomes are inadequate. There is lack of information on existing treatment patterns, the patient’s profile being treated, and factors that determine treatment success or failure in achieving desired goals. Purpose: The present study was planned to determine the lipid control status in high-risk dyslipidemic patients treated with lipid-lowering therapy in India. Methods: This cross-sectional, non-interventional, single visit program was conducted across 483 sites in India where male and female patients with high-risk dyslipidemia aged 18 to 65 years who had visited for a routine health check-up to their respective physician at hospital or a healthcare center. Percentage of high-risk dyslipidemic patients achieving adequate LDL-C level (< 70 mg/dL) on lipid-lowering therapy and the association of lipid parameters with patient characteristics, comorbid conditions, and lipid lowering drugs were analysed. Results: 3089 patients were enrolled in the study; of which 64% were males. LDL-C data was available for 95.2% of the patients; only 7.7% of these patients achieved LDL-C levels < 70 mg/dL on lipid-lowering therapy, which may be due to inability to follow therapeutic plans, poor compliance, or inadequate counselling by physician. The physician’s lack of awareness about recent treatment guidelines also might contribute to patients’ poor adherence, not explaining adequately the benefit and risks of a medication, not giving consideration to the patient’s life style and the cost of medication. Statin was the most commonly used anti-dyslipidemic drug across population. The higher proportion of patients had the comorbid condition of CVD and diabetes mellitus across all dyslipidemic patients. Conclusion: As per the European Society of Cardiology guidelines the ideal LDL-C levels in high risk dyslipidemic patients should be less than 70%. In the present study, 7.7% of the patients achieved LDL-C levels < 70 mg/dL on lipid lowering therapy which is very less. Most of high risk dyslipidemic patients in India are on suboptimal dosage of statin. So more aggressive and high dosage statin therapy may be required to achieve target LDLC levels in high risk Indian dyslipidemic patients.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, LDL-C, lipid lowering drug, statins

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

Abstract:

Climate change is continuously affecting the ecosystem, species distribution as well as global biodiversity. The assessment of the species potential distribution and the spatial changes under various climate change scenarios is a significant step towards the conservation and mitigation of habitat shifts, and species' loss and vulnerability. In this context, the present study aimed to predict the influence of current and future climate on an ecologically vulnerable medicinal species, Garcinia gummi-gutta, of the southern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. The future projections were made for the period of 2050 and 2070 with RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario of 4.5 and 8.5 using 84 species occurrence data, and climatic variables from three different models of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment. Climatic variables contributions were assessed using jackknife test and AOC value 0.888 indicates the model perform with high accuracy. The major influencing variables will be annual precipitation, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest quarter. The model result shows that the current high potential distribution of the species is around 1.90% of the study area, 7.78% is good potential; about 90.32% is moderate to very low potential for species suitability. Finally, the results of all model represented that there will be a drastic decline in the suitable habitat distribution by 2050 and 2070 for all the RCP scenarios. The study signifies that MaxEnt model might be an efficient tool for ecosystem management, biodiversity protection, and species re-habitation planning under climate change.

Keywords: Garcinia gummi gutta, maximum entropy modeling, medicinal plants, climate change, western ghats, MaxEnt

Procedia PDF Downloads 392