Search results for: VARMA models

Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Forensic DNA analysis has received much attention over the last three decades, due to its incredible usefulness in human identification. The statistical interpretation of DNA evidence is recognised as one of the most mature fields in forensic science. Peak heights in an Electropherogram (EPG) are approximately proportional to the amount of template DNA in the original sample being tested. A stutter is a minor peak in an EPG, which is not masking as an allele of a potential contributor, and considered as an artefact that is presumed to be arisen due to miscopying or slippage during the PCR. Stutter peaks are mostly analysed in terms of stutter ratio that is calculated relative to the corresponding parent allele height. Analysis of mixture profiles has always been problematic in evidence interpretation, especially with the presence of PCR artefacts like stutters. Unlike binary and semi-continuous models; continuous models assign a probability (as a continuous weight) for each possible genotype combination, and significantly enhances the use of continuous peak height information resulting in more efficient reliable interpretations. Therefore, the presence of a sound methodology to distinguish between stutters and real alleles is essential for the accuracy of the interpretation. Sensibly, any such method has to be able to focus on modelling stutter peaks. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide increased flexibility in applied statistical modelling. Mixture models are frequently employed as fundamental data analysis tools in clustering and classification of data and assume unidentified heterogeneous sources for data. In model-based clustering, each unknown source is reflected by a cluster, and the clusters are modelled using parametric models. Specifying the number of components in finite mixture models, however, is practically difficult even though the calculations are relatively simple. Infinite mixture models, in contrast, do not require the user to specify the number of components. Instead, a Dirichlet process, which is an infinite-dimensional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution, is used to deal with the problem of a number of components. Chinese restaurant process (CRP), Stick-breaking process and Pólya urn scheme are frequently used as Dirichlet priors in Bayesian mixture models. In this study, we illustrate an infinite mixture of simple linear regression models for modelling stutter ratio and introduce some modifications to overcome weaknesses associated with CRP.

Keywords: Chinese restaurant process, Dirichlet prior, infinite mixture model, PCR stutter

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Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam

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Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: S. A. Al-Qallaf, S. A. Al-Mawsawi, A. Haider

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Among all FACTS devices, the unified power flow controller (UPFC) is considered to be the most versatile device. This is due to its capability to control all the transmission system parameters (impedance, voltage magnitude, and phase angle). With the growing interest in UPFC, the attention to develop a mathematical model has increased. Several models were introduced for UPFC in literature for different type of studies in power systems. In this paper a novel comparison study between two dynamic models of UPFC with their proposed control strategies.

Keywords: FACTS, UPFC, dynamic modeling, PWM, fundamental frequency

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Authors: Xiaobo Liu, Rakesh Mishra, Yun Zhang

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Continuous monitoring of forest canopy height with large coverage is essential for obtaining forest carbon stocks and emissions, quantifying biomass estimation, analyzing vegetation coverage, and determining biodiversity. LiDAR can be used to collect accurate woody vegetation structure such as canopy height. However, LiDAR’s coverage is usually limited because of its high cost and limited maneuverability, which constrains its use for dynamic and large area forest canopy monitoring. On the other hand, optical satellite images, like Sentinel-2, have the ability to cover large forest areas with a high repeat rate, but they do not have height information. Hence, exploring the solution of integrating LiDAR data and Sentinel-2 images to enlarge the coverage of forest canopy height prediction and increase the prediction repeat rate has been an active research topic in the environmental remote sensing community. In this study, we explore the potential of training a Random Forest Regression (RFR) model and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model, respectively, to develop two predictive models for predicting and validating the forest canopy height of the Acadia Forest in New Brunswick, Canada, with a 10m ground sampling distance (GSD), for the year 2018 and 2021. Two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models, one for 2018 and one for 2021, are used as ground truth to train and validate the RFR and CNN predictive models. To evaluate the prediction performance of the trained RFR and CNN models, two new predicted canopy height maps (CHMs), one for 2018 and one for 2021, are generated using the trained RFR and CNN models and 10m Sentinel-2 images of 2018 and 2021, respectively. The two 10m predicted CHMs from Sentinel-2 images are then compared with the two 10m airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height models for accuracy assessment. The validation results show that the mean absolute error (MAE) for year 2018 of the RFR model is 2.93m, CNN model is 1.71m; while the MAE for year 2021 of the RFR model is 3.35m, and the CNN model is 3.78m. These demonstrate the feasibility of using the RFR and CNN models developed in this research for predicting large-coverage forest canopy height at 10m spatial resolution and a high revisit rate.

Keywords: remote sensing, forest canopy height, LiDAR, Sentinel-2, artificial intelligence, random forest regression, convolutional neural network

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Authors: Yan Cheng, Yijun Shao, James Rudolph, Charlene R. Weir, Beth Sahlmann, Qing Zeng-Treitler

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Supervised predictive models require labeled data for training purposes. Complete and accurate labeled data, i.e., a ‘gold standard’, is not always available, and imperfectly labeled data may need to serve as an alternative. An important question is if the accuracy of the labeled data creates a performance ceiling for the trained model. In this study, we trained several models to recognize the presence of delirium in clinical documents using data with annotations that are not completely accurate (i.e., weakly-supervised learning). In the external evaluation, the support vector machine model with a linear kernel performed best, achieving an area under the curve of 89.3% and accuracy of 88%, surpassing the 80% accuracy of the training sample. We then generated a set of simulated data and carried out a series of experiments which demonstrated that models trained on imperfect data can (but do not always) outperform the accuracy of the training data, e.g., the area under the curve for some models is higher than 80% when trained on the data with an error rate of 40%. Our experiments also showed that the error resistance of linear modeling is associated with larger sample size, error type, and linearity of the data (all p-values < 0.001). In conclusion, this study sheds light on the usefulness of imperfect data in clinical research via weakly-supervised learning.

Keywords: weakly-supervised learning, support vector machine, prediction, delirium, simulation

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Authors: Safaa H. Sindi, Michael Roe

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This project divides supply chain (SC) models into seven Eras, according to the evolution of the market’s needs throughout time. The five earliest Eras describe the emergence of supply chains, while the last two Eras are to be created. Research objectives: The aim is to generate the two latest Eras with their respective models that focus on the consumable goods. Era Six contains the Optimal Multidimensional Matrix (OMM) that incorporates most characteristics of the SC and allocates them into four quarters (Agile, Lean, Leagile, and Basic SC). This will help companies, especially (SMEs) plan their optimal SC route. Era Seven creates an Automated Multidimensional Model (AMM) which upgrades the matrix of Era six, as it accounts for all the supply chain factors (i.e. Offshoring, sourcing, risk) into an interactive system with Heuristic Learning that helps larger companies and industries to select the best SC model for their market. Methodologies: The data collection is based on a Fuzzy-Delphi study that analyses statements using Fuzzy Logic. The first round of Delphi study will contain statements (fuzzy rules) about the matrix of Era six. The second round of Delphi contains the feedback given from the first round and so on. Preliminary findings: both models are applicable, Matrix of Era six reduces the complexity of choosing the best SC model for SMEs by helping them identify the best strategy of Basic SC, Lean, Agile and Leagile SC; that’s tailored to their needs. The interactive heuristic learning in the AMM of Era seven will help mitigate error and aid large companies to identify and re-strategize the best SC model and distribution system for their market and commodity, hence increasing efficiency. Potential contributions to the literature: The problematic issue facing many companies is to decide which SC model or strategy to incorporate, due to the many models and definitions developed over the years. This research simplifies this by putting most definition in a template and most models in the Matrix of era six. This research is original as the division of SC into Eras, the Matrix of Era six (OMM) with Fuzzy-Delphi and Heuristic Learning in the AMM of Era seven provides a synergy of tools that were not combined before in the area of SC. Additionally the OMM of Era six is unique as it combines most characteristics of the SC, which is an original concept in itself.

Keywords: Leagile, automation, heuristic learning, supply chain models

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Authors: M. Guen

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A three-dimensional numerical study is used to analyze the behavior of the flow inside a vortex tube. The vortex tube or Ranque-Hilsch vortex tube is a simple device which is capable of dividing compressed air from the inlet nozzle tangentially into two flow with different temperatures warm and cold. This phenomenon is known from literature by temperature separation. The K ω-SST and K-ε turbulence models are used to predict the turbulent flow behaviour inside the tube. The vortex tube is an Exair 708 slpm (25 scfm) commercial tube. The cold and hot exits areas are 30.2 and 95 mm2 respectively. The vortex nozzle consists of 6 straight slots; the height and the width of each slot are 0.97 mm and 1.41 mm. The total area normal to the flow associated with six nozzles is therefore 8.15 mm 2. The present study focuses on a comparison between two turbulence models K ω-SST, K-ε by using a new configuration of vortex tube (Conical Vortex Tube). The performance curves of the temperature separation versus cold outlet mass fraction were calculated and compared with experimental and numerical study of other researchers.

Keywords: conical vortex tube, temperature separation, cold mass fraction, turbulence

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Authors: Olushola S. Ayanda, Olalekan S. Fatoki, Folahan A. Adekola, Bhekumusa J. Ximba, Cecilia O. Akintayo

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In the present study, the kinetics, equilibrium and thermodynamics of the adsorption of triphenyltin (TPT) from TPT-contaminated water onto nanoSiO2/fly ash/activated carbon composite was investigated in batch adsorption system. Equilibrium adsorption data were analyzed using Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin and Dubinin–Radushkevich (D-R) isotherm models. Pseudo first- and second-order, Elovich and fractional power models were applied to test the kinetic data and in order to understand the mechanism of adsorption, thermodynamic parameters such as ΔG°, ΔSo and ΔH° were also calculated. The results showed a very good compliance with pseudo second-order equation while the Freundlich and D-R models fit the experiment data. Approximately 99.999 % TPT was removed from the initial concentration of 100 mg/L TPT at 80oC, contact time of 60 min, pH 8 and a stirring speed of 200 rpm. Thus, nanoSiO2/fly ash/activated carbon composite could be used as effective adsorbent for the removal of TPT from contaminated water and wastewater.

Keywords: isotherm, kinetics, nanoSiO₂/fly ash/activated carbon composite, tributyltin

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Authors: Aminah Muchdar, Nuraeni, Eddy

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The aims of the research are: (1) to verify the cropsyst plant model of experimental data in the field of soybean plants and (2) to predict planting time and potential yield soybean plant with the use of cropsyst model. This research is divided into several stages: (1) first calibration stage which conducted in the field from June until September 2015.(2) application models stage, where the data obtained from calibration in the field will be included in cropsyst models. The required data models are climate data, ground data/soil data,also crop genetic data. The relationship between the obtained result in field with simulation cropsyst model indicated by Efficiency Index (EF) which the value is 0,939.That is showing that cropsyst model is well used. From the calculation result RRMSE which the value is 1,922%.That is showing that comparative fault prediction results from simulation with result obtained in the field is 1,92%. The conclusion has obtained that the prediction of soybean planting time cropsyst based models that have been made valid for use. and the appropriate planting time for planting soybeans mainly on rain-fed land is at the end of the rainy season, in which the above study first planting time (June 2, 2015) which gives the highest production, because at that time there was still some rain. Tanggamus varieties more resistant to slow planting time cause the percentage decrease in the yield of each decade is lower than the average of all varieties.

Keywords: soybean, Cropsyst, calibration, efficiency Index, RRMSE

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Authors: Rossella Arcucci, Luisa D'Amore, Simone Celestino, Giuseppe Scotti, Giuliano Laccetti

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This work is the first dowel in a rather wide research activity in collaboration with Euro Mediterranean Center for Climate Changes, aimed at introducing scalable approaches in Ocean Circulation Models. We discuss designing and implementation of a parallel algorithm for solving the Variational Data Assimilation (DA) problem on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). The algorithm is based on the fully scalable 3DVar DA model, previously proposed by the authors, which uses a Domain Decomposition approach (we refer to this model as the DD-DA model). We proceed with an incremental porting process consisting of 3 distinct stages: requirements and source code analysis, incremental development of CUDA kernels, testing and optimization. Experiments confirm the theoretic performance analysis based on the so-called scale up factor demonstrating that the DD-DA model can be suitably mapped on GPU architectures.

Keywords: data assimilation, GPU architectures, ocean models, parallel algorithm

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Authors: Abdullah E. Al-Mazrooei

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In this paper, we present a new kind of the bilinear systems in the form of state space model. The evolution of this system depends on the product of state vector by its self. The well known Lotak Volterra and Lorenz models are special cases of this new model. We also present here a generalization of Kalman filter which is suitable to work with the new bilinear model. An application to real measurements is introduced to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: bilinear systems, state space model, Kalman filter, application, models

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Authors: A. Bahmanpour, I. Eames, C. Klettner, A. Dimakopoulos

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We develop a new set of diagnostic tools to analyze inundation into a model district using three-dimensional CFD simulations, with a view to generating a database against which to test simpler models. A three-dimensional model of Oregon city with different-sized groups of building next to the coastline is used to run calculations of the movement of a long period wave on the shore. The initial and boundary conditions of the off-shore water are set using a nonlinear inverse method based on Eulerian spatial information matching experimental Eulerian time series measurements of water height. The water movement is followed in time, and this enables the pressure distribution on every surface of each building to be followed in a temporal manner. The three-dimensional numerical data set is validated against published experimental work. In the first instance, we use the dataset as a basis to understand the success of reduced models - including 2D shallow water model and reduced 1D models - to predict water heights, flow velocity and forces. This is because models based on the shallow water equations are known to underestimate drag forces after the initial surge of water. The second component is to identify critical flow features, such as hydraulic jumps and choked states, which are flow regions where dissipation occurs and drag forces are large. Finally, we describe how future tsunami inundation models should be modified to account for the complex effects of buildings through drag and blocking.Financial support from UCL and HR Wallingford is greatly appreciated. The authors would like to thank Professor Daniel Cox and Dr. Hyoungsu Park for providing the data on the Seaside Oregon experiment.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, extreme events, loading, tsunami

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Authors: The Danh Phan

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House price forecasting is a main topic in the real estate market research. Effective house price prediction models could not only allow home buyers and real estate agents to make better data-driven decisions but may also be beneficial for the property policymaking process. This study investigates the housing market by using machine learning techniques to analyze real historical house sale transactions in Australia. It seeks useful models which could be deployed as an application for house buyers and sellers. Data analytics show a high discrepancy between the house price in the most expensive suburbs and the most affordable suburbs in the city of Melbourne. In addition, experiments demonstrate that the combination of Stepwise and Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the Mean Squared Error (MSE) measurement, consistently outperforms other models in terms of prediction accuracy.

Keywords: house price prediction, regression trees, neural network, support vector machine, stepwise

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Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

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Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed-length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models changes as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based Transformer models, which have had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (RNN, LSTM, GRU, and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the UCI website, which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean Average Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window

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Authors: Jose Juan Peña, J. Morales, J. García-Ravelo

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In the search of potential models applied in the theoretical treatment of diatomic molecules, some of them have been constructed by using standard hyperbolic functions as well as from the so-called q-deformed hyperbolic functions (sc q-dhf) for displacing and modifying the shape of the potential under study. In order to transcend the scope of hyperbolic functions, in this work, a kind of generalized q-deformed hyperbolic functions (g q-dhf) is presented. By a suitable transformation, through the q deformation parameter, it is shown that these g q-dhf can be expressed in terms of their corresponding standard ones besides they can be reduced to the sc q-dhf. As a useful application of the proposed approach, and considering a class of exactly solvable multi-parameter exponential-type potentials, some new q-deformed quantum interactions models that can be used as interesting alternative in quantum physics and quantum states are presented. Furthermore, due that quantum potential models are conditioned on the q-dependence of the parameters that characterize to the exponential-type potentials, it is shown that many specific cases of q-deformed potentials are obtained as particular cases from the proposal.

Keywords: diatomic molecules, exponential-type potentials, hyperbolic functions, q-deformed potentials

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Authors: Tobias Beyer, Christoph Friedrich

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Modern simulation methodology using finite element models is nowadays a recognized tool for product design/optimization. Likewise, manufacturing process design is increasingly becoming the focus of simulation methodology in order to enable sustainable results based on reduced real-life tests here as well. In this article, two process simulations -radial riveting and roller burnishing- used for mechanical joining of components are explained. In the first step, the required boundary conditions are developed and implemented in the respective simulation models. This is followed by process space validation. With the help of the validated models, the interdependencies of the input parameters are investigated and evaluated by means of sensitivity analyses. Limit case investigations are carried out and evaluated with the aid of the process simulations. Likewise, a comparison of the two joining methods to each other becomes possible.

Keywords: FEM, model-based process development, process simulation, radial riveting, roller burnishing, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, J. O. Adekunle

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The incubation period is defined as the time from infection with a microorganism to development of symptoms. In this research, two disease models: one with incubation period and another without incubation period were studied. The study involves the use of a  mathematical model with a single incubation period. The test for the existence and stability of the disease free and the endemic equilibrium states for both models were carried out. The fourth order Runge-Kutta method was used to solve both models numerically. Finally, a computer program in MATLAB was developed to run the numerical experiments. From the results, we are able to show that the endemic equilibrium state of the model with incubation period is locally asymptotically stable whereas the endemic equilibrium state of the model without incubation period is unstable under certain conditions on the given model parameters. It was also established that the disease free equilibrium states of the model with and without incubation period are locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, results from numerical experiments using empirical data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) showed that the overall population of the infected people for the model with incubation period is higher than that without incubation period. We also established from the results obtained that as the transmission rate from susceptible to infected population increases, the peak values of the infected population for the model with incubation period decrease and are always less than those for the model without incubation period.

Keywords: asymptotic stability, Hartman-Grobman stability criterion, incubation period, Routh-Hurwitz criterion, Runge-Kutta method

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Authors: John Deely, Stephen Hynes, Mary Cawley, Sarah Hogan

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Domestic marine and coastal tourism have increased in importance over the last number of years due to the impacts of international travel, environmental concerns, associated health benefits and COVID-19 related travel restrictions. Consequently, this paper conceptualizes domestic marine and coastal tourism within an economic framework. Two logit models examine the factors that influence participation in the coastal day trips and overnight stays markets, respectively. Two truncated travel cost models are employed to explore trip duration, one analyzing the number of day trips taken and the other examining the number of nights spent in marine and coastal areas. Although a range of variables predicts participation, no one variable had a significant and consistent effect on every model. A division in access to domestic marine and coastal tourism is also observed based on variation in household income. The results also indicate a vibrant day trip market and large consumer surpluses.

Keywords: domestic marine and coastal tourism, day tripper, participation models, truncated travel cost model

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Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

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The volatility of the oil market, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, presents significant challenges for stakeholders in predicting trends and demand. This article explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in developing robust forecasting models to anticipate changes in the oil market more accurately. We delve into various AI techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis, that have been adapted to analyze historical data and current market conditions to forecast future trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex patterns and dependencies in market data, which traditional forecasting methods often miss. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of external variables such as political events, economic policies, and technological advancements that influence oil prices and demand. By leveraging AI, stakeholders can achieve a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, enabling better strategic planning and risk management. The article concludes with a discussion on the potential of AI-driven models in enhancing the predictive accuracy of oil market forecasts and their implications for global economic planning and strategic resource allocation.

Keywords: AI forecasting, oil market trends, machine learning, deep learning, time series analysis, predictive analytics, economic factors, geopolitical influence, technological advancements, strategic planning

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Authors: Hafizuddin W. Yussof, Syamsutajri S. Bahri, Adam P. Harvey

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Strong anion exchange resins with QN+OH-, have the potential to be developed and employed as heterogeneous catalyst for transesterification, as they are chemically stable to leaching of the functional group. Nine different SIERs (SIER1-9) with QN+OH- were prepared by suspension polymerization of vinylbenzyl chloride-divinylbenzene (VBC-DVB) copolymers in the presence of n-heptane (pore-forming agent). The amine group was successfully grafted into the polymeric resin beads through functionalization with trimethylamine. These SIERs are then used as a catalyst for the transesterification of triacetin with methanol. A set of differential equations that represents the Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson (LHHW) and Eley-Rideal (ER) models for the transesterification reaction were developed. These kinetic models of LHHW and ER were fitted to the experimental data. Overall, the synthesized ion exchange resin-catalyzed reaction were well-described by the Eley-Rideal model compared to LHHW models, with sum of square error (SSE) of 0.742 and 0.996, respectively.

Keywords: anion exchange resin, Eley-Rideal, Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson, transesterification

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Authors: E. Al Daoud

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In many cases, theoretical treatments are available for models for which there is no perfect physical realization. In this situation, the only possible test for an approximate theoretical solution is to compare with data generated from a computer simulation. In this paper, Monte Carlo tools are used to study and compare the elementary particles models. All the experiments are implemented using 10000 events, and the simulated energy is 13 TeV. The mean and the curves of several variables are calculated for each model using MadAnalysis 5. Anomalies in the results can be seen in the muons masses of the minimal supersymmetric standard model and the two Higgs doublet model.

Keywords: Feynman rules, hadrons, Lagrangian, Monte Carlo, simulation

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Authors: Aadityaa Singla

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The big five personality traits are as follows: openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism. In order to get an insight into their personality, many flocks to these categories, which each have different meanings/characteristics. This information is important not only to individuals but also to career professionals and psychologists who can use this information for candidate assessment or job recruitment. The links between AI and psychology have been well studied in cognitive science, but it is still a rather novel development. It is possible for various AI classification models to accurately predict a personality question via ten input questions. This would contrast with the hundred questions that normal humans have to answer to gain a complete picture of their five personality traits. In order to approach this problem, various AI classification models were used on a dataset to predict what a user may answer. From there, the model's prediction was compared to its actual response. Normally, there are five answer choices (a 20% chance of correct guess), and the models exceed that value to different degrees, proving their significance. By utilizing an MLP classifier, decision tree, linear model, and K-nearest neighbors, they were able to obtain a test accuracy of 86.643, 54.625, 47.875, and 52.125, respectively. These approaches display that there is potential in the future for more nuanced predictions to be made regarding personality.

Keywords: machine learning, personally, big five personality traits, cognitive science

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall-runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15–May 18 2014). The prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: flood, HEC-HMS, prediction, rainfall, runoff

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Authors: Moulana Mohammed

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Topic models are widely used in building clusters of documents for more than a decade, yet problems occurring in choosing optimal number of topics. The main problem is the lack of a stable metric of the quality of topics obtained during the construction of topic models. The authors analyzed from previous works, most of the models used in determining the number of topics are non-parametric and quality of topics determined by using perplexity and coherence measures and concluded that they are not applicable in solving this problem. In this paper, we used the parametric method, which is an extension of the traditional topic model with visual access tendency for visualization of the number of topics (clusters) to complement clustering and to choose optimal number of topics based on results of cluster validity indices. Developed hybrid topic models are demonstrated with different Twitter datasets on various topics in obtaining the optimal number of topics and in measuring the quality of clusters. The experimental results showed that the Visual Non-negative Matrix Factorization (VNMF) topic model performs well in determining the optimal number of topics with interactive visualization and in performance measure of the quality of clusters with validity indices.

Keywords: interactive visualization, visual mon-negative matrix factorization model, optimal number of topics, cluster validity indices, Twitter data clustering

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Authors: M. Pepe, S. Ackermann, L. Fregonese, C. Achille

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3D models obtained with advanced survey techniques such as close-range photogrammetry and laser scanner are nowadays particularly appreciated in Cultural Heritage and Archaeology fields. In order to produce high quality models representing archaeological evidences and anthropological artifacts, the appearance of the model (i.e. color) beyond the geometric accuracy, is not a negligible aspect. The integration of the close-range photogrammetry survey techniques with the laser scanner is still a topic of study and research. By combining point cloud data sets of the same object generated with both technologies, or with the same technology but registered in different moment and/or natural light condition, could construct a final point cloud with accentuated color dissimilarities. In this paper, a methodology to uniform the different data sets, to improve the chromatic quality and to highlight further details by balancing the point color will be presented.

Keywords: color models, cultural heritage, laser scanner, photogrammetry

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Authors: Bhavita S. Dave, Jaimin Vaidya, Chandresh H. Solanki, Atul K.

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To measure the permeability of a soil specimen, one of the basic assumptions of Darcy's law is that the soil sample should be saturated. Unlike saturated soils, the permeability of unsaturated soils cannot be found using conventional methods as it does not follow Darcy's law. Many empirical models, such as the Van Genuchten Model and Fredlund-Xing Model were suggested to predict permeability value for unsaturated soil. Such models use data from the soil-freezing characteristic curve to find fitting parameters for frozen unsaturated soils. In this study, soil specimens were subjected to 0, 1, 3, and 5 freezing-thawing (F-T) cycles for different degrees of saturation to have a wide range of suction, and its soil freezing characteristic curves were formulated for all F-T cycles. Changes in fitting parameters and relative permeability with subsequent F-T cycles are presented in this paper for both models.

Keywords: frozen unsaturated soil, Fredlund Xing model, soil-freezing characteristic curve, Van Genuchten model

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Authors: O. Behar, A. Khellaf, K. Mohammedi, S. Ait Kaci

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Up to now, most validation studies have been based on the MBE and RMSE, and therefore, focused only on long and short terms performance to test and classify solar radiation models. This traditional analysis does not take into account the quality of modeling and linearity. In our analysis we have tested 22 solar radiation models that are capable to provide instantaneous direct and global radiation at any given location Worldwide. We introduce a new indicator, which we named Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI) to examine the linear relationship between the measured and predicted values and the quality of modeling in addition to long and short terms performance. Note that the quality of model has been represented by the T-Statistical test, the model linearity has been given by the correlation coefficient and the long and short term performance have been respectively known by the MBE and RMSE. An important founding of this research is that the use GAI allows avoiding default validation when using traditional methodology that might results in erroneous prediction of solar power conversion systems performances.

Keywords: solar radiation model, parametric model, performance analysis, Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI)

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Authors: E. Harrer, M. Mauerhofer, T. Werginz

Abstract:

As a result of intensive competition, the building sector is suffering from a high degree of rivalry. Furthermore, there can be observed an unbalanced distribution of project risks. Clients are aimed to shift their own risks into the sphere of the constructors or planners. The consequence of this is that the number of conflicts between the involved parties is inordinately high or even increasing; an alternative approach to counter on that developments are cooperative project forms in the construction sector. This research compares conventional contract models and models with partnering agreements to examine the influence on project risks by an early integration of the involved parties. The goal is to show up deviations in different project stages from the design phase to the project transfer phase. These deviations are evaluated by a survey of experts from the three spheres: clients, contractors and planners. By rating the influence of the participants on specific risk factors it is possible to identify factors which are relevant for a smooth project execution.

Keywords: building projects, contract models, partnering, project risks

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Authors: Peter Kress, Alexander Pflaum, Ulrich Loewen

Abstract:

The number of Internet-of-Things (IoT) platforms is steadily increasing across various industries, especially for smart factories, smart homes and smart mobility. Also in the manufacturing industry, the number of Industrial-IoT platforms is growing. Both IT players, start-ups and increasingly also established industry players and small-and-medium-enterprises introduce offerings for the connection of industrial equipment on platforms, enabled by advanced information and communication technology. Beside the offered functionalities, the established ecosystem of partners around a platform is one of the key differentiators to generate a competitive advantage. The key question is how platform operators design the business model around their platform to attract a high number of customers and partners to co-create value for the entire ecosystem. The present research tries to answer this question by determining the key characteristics of business models of successful platforms in the manufacturing industry. To achieve that, the authors selected an explorative qualitative research approach and created an inductive comparative case study. The authors generated valuable descriptive insights of the business model elements (e.g., value proposition, pricing model or partnering model) of various established platforms. Furthermore, patterns across the various cases were identified to derive propositions for the successful design of business models of platforms in the manufacturing industry.

Keywords: industrial-internet-of-things, business models, platforms, ecosystems, case study

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Authors: Hazel Pettifor, Charlie Wilson, David Mccollum, Oreane Edelenbosch

Abstract:

Vehicle purchase is a technology adoption decision that will strongly influence future energy and emission outcomes. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide valuable insights into the medium and long terms effects of socio-economic development, technological change and climate policy. In this paper we present a unique and transparent approach for improving the behavioural representation of these models by incorporating social influence effects to more accurately represent consumer choice. This work draws together strong conceptual thinking and robust empirical evidence to introduce heterogeneous and interconnected consumers who vary in their aversion to new technologies. Focussing on vehicle choice, we conduct novel empirical research to parameterise consumer risk aversion and how this is shaped by social and cultural influences. We find robust evidence for social influence effects, and variation between countries as a function of cultural differences. We then formulate an approach to modelling social influence which is implementable in both simulation and optimisation-type models. We use two global integrated assessment models (IMAGE and MESSAGE) to analyse four scenarios that introduce social influence and cultural differences between regions. These scenarios allow us to explore the interactions between consumer preferences and social influence. We find that incorporating social influence effects into global models accelerates the early deployment of electric vehicles and stimulates more widespread deployment across adopter groups. Incorporating cultural variation leads to significant differences in deployment between culturally divergent regions such as the USA and China. Our analysis significantly extends the ability of global integrated assessment models to provide policy-relevant analysis grounded in real-world processes.

Keywords: behavioural realism, electric vehicles, social influence, vehicle choice

Procedia PDF Downloads 166