Search results for: Poisson generalized linear model

Authors: Sherry Ann Ganase, Sandra Sookram

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This study examines adaptation measures and factors that influence adaptation decisions in Bequia by using multiple linear regression and a structural equation model. Using survey data, the results suggest that households are knowledgeable and concerned about climate change but lack knowledge about the measures needed to adapt. The findings from the SEM suggest that a positive relationship exist between vulnerability and adaptation, vulnerability and perception, along with a negative relationship between perception and adaptation. This suggests that being aware of the terms associated with climate change and knowledge about climate change is insufficient for implementing adaptation measures; instead the risk and importance placed on climate change, vulnerability experienced with household flooding, drainage and expected threat of future sea level are the main factors that influence the adaptation decision. The results obtained in this study are beneficial to all as adaptation requires a collective effort by stakeholders.

Keywords: adaptation, Bequia, multiple linear regression, structural equation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 463

Authors: Jacqueline Y. Thompson, Sam Watson, Lee Middleton, Karla Hemming

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Introduction: The odds ratio (estimated via logistic regression) is a well-established and common approach for estimating covariate-adjusted binary treatment effects when comparing a treatment and control group with dichotomous outcomes. Its popularity is primarily because of its stability and robustness to model misspecification. However, the situation is different for the relative risk and risk difference, which are arguably easier to interpret and better suited to specific designs such as non-inferiority studies. So far, there is no equivalent, widely acceptable approach to estimate an adjusted relative risk and risk difference when conducting clinical trials. This is partly due to the lack of a comprehensive evaluation of available candidate methods. Methods/Approach: A simulation study is designed to evaluate the performance of relevant candidate methods to estimate relative risks to represent conditional and marginal estimation approaches. We consider the log-binomial, generalised linear models (GLM) with iteratively weighted least-squares (IWLS) and model-based standard errors (SE); log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and model-based SEs; log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and permutation tests; modified-Poisson GLM IWLS and robust SEs; log-binomial generalised estimation equations (GEE) and robust SEs; marginal standardisation and delta method SEs; and marginal standardisation and permutation test SEs. Independent and identically distributed datasets are simulated from a randomised controlled trial to evaluate these candidate methods. Simulations are replicated 10000 times for each scenario across all possible combinations of sample sizes (200, 1000, and 5000), outcomes (10%, 50%, and 80%), and covariates (ranging from -0.05 to 0.7) representing weak, moderate or strong relationships. Treatment effects (ranging from 0, -0.5, 1; on the log-scale) will consider null (H0) and alternative (H1) hypotheses to evaluate coverage and power in realistic scenarios. Performance measures (bias, mean square error (MSE), relative efficiency, and convergence rates) are evaluated across scenarios covering a range of sample sizes, event rates, covariate prognostic strength, and model misspecifications. Potential Results, Relevance & Impact: There are several methods for estimating unadjusted and adjusted relative risks. However, it is unclear which method(s) is the most efficient, preserves type-I error rate, is robust to model misspecification, or is the most powerful when adjusting for non-prognostic and prognostic covariates. GEE estimations may be biased when the outcome distributions are not from marginal binary data. Also, it seems that marginal standardisation and convex optimisation may perform better than GLM IWLS log-binomial.

Keywords: binary outcomes, statistical methods, clinical trials, simulation study

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Deepshikha Verma, V. N. Rajasekharan Pillai

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The present study reports the synthesis of cyclic PNC-28 peptides with solid-phase peptide synthesis method. In the first step, we synthesize the linear PNC-28 Peptide and in the second step, we cyclize (N-to-C or head-to-tail cyclization) the linear PNC-28 peptide. The molecular formula of cyclic PNC-28 peptide is C64H88N12O16 and its m/z mass is ≈1233.64. Elemental analysis of cyclic PNC-28 is C, 59.99; H, 6.92; N, 13.12; O, 19.98. The characterization of LC-MS, CD, FT-IR, and 1HNMR has been done to confirm the successful synthesis and cyclization of linear PNC-28 peptides.

Keywords: CD, FTIR, 1HNMR, cyclic peptide

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Yiyuan Tao

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Under the impact of global warming together with the intensification of human activities, the hydrological regimes may be altered, and the traditional stationary assumption was no longer satisfied. However, most of the current design standards of water infrastructures were still based on the hypothesis of stationarity, which may inevitably result in severe biases. Many critical impacts of climate on ecosystems, society, and the economy are controlled by extreme events rather than mean values. Therefore, it is of great significance to identify the non-stationarity of precipitation extremes and model the precipitation extremes in a nonstationary framework. The Wei River Basin (WRB), located in a continental monsoon climate zone in China, is selected as a case study in this study. Six extreme precipitation indices were employed to investigate the changing patterns and stationarity of precipitation extremes in the WRB. To identify if precipitation extremes are stationary, the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettitt test, which is used to examine the occurrence of abrupt changes are adopted in this study. Extreme precipitation indices series are fitted with non-stationary distributions that selected from six widely used distribution functions: Gumbel, lognormal, Weibull, gamma, generalized gamma and exponential distributions by means of the time-varying moments model generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS), where the distribution parameters are defined as a function of time. The results indicate that: (1) the trends were not significant for the whole WRB, but significant positive/negative trends were still observed in some stations, abrupt changes for consecutive wet days (CWD) mainly occurred in 1985, and the assumption of stationarity is invalid for some stations; (2) for these nonstationary extreme precipitation indices series with significant positive/negative trends, the GAMLSS models are able to capture well the temporal variations of the indices, and perform better than the stationary model. Finally, the differences between the quantiles of nonstationary and stationary models are analyzed, which highlight the importance of nonstationary modeling of precipitation extremes in the WRB.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, GAMLSSS, non-stationary, Wei River Basin

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Gram Y. Rivas Sanchez

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The seismic design codes in the world allow the analysis of structures considering an elastic-linear behavior; however, against earthquakes, the structures exhibit non-linear behaviors that induce damage to their elements. For this reason, it is necessary to use non-linear methods to analyze these structures, being the dynamic methods that provide more reliable results but require a lot of computational costs; on the other hand, non-linear static methods do not have this disadvantage and are being used more and more. In the present work, the nonlinear static analysis (pushover) of RC frame buildings of three, five, and seven stories is carried out considering models of concentrated plasticity using plastic hinges; and the seismic performance points are determined using ATC-40, FEMA 356, and FEMA 440 guidelines. Using this last standard, the highest inelastic displacements and basal shears are obtained, providing designs that are more conservative.

Keywords: pushover, nonlinear, RC building, FEMA 440, ATC 40

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Nisa Özge Önal, Kamil Karaçuha, Göksu Hazar Erdinç, Banu Bahar Karaçuha, Ertuğrul Karaçuha

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The study aims to use a mathematical approach with the fractional calculus which is developed to have the ability to continuously analyze the factors related to the children’s height development. Until now, tracking the development of the child is getting more important and meaningful. Knowing and determining the factors related to the physical development of the child any desired time would provide better, reliable and accurate results for childcare. In this frame, 7 groups for height percentile curve (3th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 97th) of Turkey are used. By using discrete height data of 0-18 years old children and the least squares method, a continuous curve is developed valid for any time interval. By doing so, in any desired instant, it is possible to find the percentage and location of the child in Percentage Chart. Here, with the help of the fractional calculus theory, a mathematical model is developed. The outcomes of the proposed approach are quite promising compared to the linear and the polynomial method. The approach also yields to predict the expected values of children in the sense of height.

Keywords: children growth percentile, children physical development, fractional calculus, linear and polynomial model

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Barenten Suciu

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In order to explain the damping mechanism, related to the hunting motion of the wheel axle of a high-speed railway vehicle, a generalized dynamic model is proposed. Based on such model, analytic expressions for the damping coefficient and damped natural frequency are derived, without imposing restrictions on the ratio between the lateral and vertical creep coefficients. Influence of the travelling speed, wheel conicity, dimensionless mass of the wheel axle, ratio of the creep coefficients, ratio of the track span to the yawing diameter, etc. on the damping coefficient and damped natural frequency, is clarified.

Keywords: high-speed railway vehicle, hunting motion, wheel axle, damping, creep, vibration model, analysis.

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Mohammad Pourmohammadi Fallah, Maziar Salahi

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In the literature, a mixed-integer linear programming model for the integrated production planning and warehouse layout problem is proposed. To solve the model, the authors proposed a Lagrangian relax-and-fix heuristic that takes a significant amount of time to stop with gaps above 5$\%$ for large-scale instances. Here, we present two heuristic algorithms to solve the problem. In the first one, we use a greedy approach by allocating warehouse locations with less reservation costs and also less transportation costs from the production area to locations and from locations to the output point to items with higher demands. Then a smaller model is solved. In the second heuristic, first, we sort items in descending order according to the fraction of the sum of the demands for that item in the time horizon plus the maximum demand for that item in the time horizon and the sum of all its demands in the time horizon. Then we categorize the sorted items into groups of 3, 4, or 5 and solve a small-scale optimization problem for each group, hoping to improve the solution of the first heuristic. Our preliminary numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed heuristics.

Keywords: capacitated lot-sizing, warehouse layout, mixed-integer linear programming, heuristics algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Sadia Arshad

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The new coronavirus disease or COVID-19 still poses an alarming situation around the world. Modeling based on the derivative of fractional order is relatively important to capture real-world problems and to analyze the realistic situation of the proposed model. Weproposed a mathematical model for the investigation of COVID-19 dynamics in a generalized fractional framework. The new model is formulated in the Caputo sense and employs a nonlinear time-varying transmission rate. The existence and uniqueness solutions of the fractional order derivative have been studied using the fixed-point theory. The associated dynamical behaviors are discussed in terms of equilibrium, stability, and basic reproduction number. For the purpose of numerical implementation, an effcient approximation scheme is also employed to solve the fractional COVID-19 model. Numerical simulations are reported for various fractional orders, and simulation results are compared with a real case of COVID-19 pandemic. According to the comparative results with real data, we find the best value of fractional orderand justify the use of the fractional concept in the mathematical modelling, for the new fractional modelsimulates the reality more accurately than the other classical frameworks.

Keywords: fractional calculus, modeling, stability, numerical solution

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Obaid Algahtani

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An interval may be defined as a convex combination as follows: I=[a,b]={x_α=(1-α)a+αb: α∈[0,1]}. Consequently, we may adopt interval operations by applying the scalar operation point-wise to the corresponding interval points: I ∙J={x_α∙y_α ∶ αϵ[0,1],x_α ϵI ,y_α ϵJ}, With the usual restriction 0∉J if ∙ = ÷. These operations are associative: I+( J+K)=(I+J)+ K, I*( J*K)=( I*J )* K. These two properties, which are missing in the usual interval operations, will enable the extension of the usual linear system concepts to the interval setting in a seamless manner. The arithmetic introduced here avoids such vague terms as ”interval extension”, ”inclusion function”, determinants which we encounter in the engineering literature that deal with interval linear systems. On the other hand, these definitions were motivated by our attempt to arrive at a definition of interval random variables and investigate the corresponding statistical properties. We feel that they are the natural ones to handle interval systems. We will enable the extension of many results from usual state space models to interval state space models. The interval state space model we will consider here is one of the form X_((t+1) )=AX_t+ W_t, Y_t=HX_t+ V_t, t≥0, where A∈ 〖IR〗^(k×k), H ∈ 〖IR〗^(p×k) are interval matrices and 〖W 〗_t ∈ 〖IR〗^k,V_t ∈〖IR〗^p are zero – mean Gaussian white-noise interval processes. This feeling is reassured by the numerical results we obtained in a simulation examples.

Keywords: interval analysis, interval matrices, state space model, Kalman Filter

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Authors: Soltani Amir, Wang Xuan

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The advantage of using non-linear passive damping system in vibration control of two adjacent structures is investigated under their base excitation. The base excitation is El Centro earthquake record acceleration. The damping system is considered as an optimum and effective non-linear viscous damper that is connected between two adjacent structures. A Matlab program is developed to produce the stiffness and damping matrices and to determine a time history analysis of the dynamic motion of the system. One structure is assumed to be flexible while the other has a rule as laterally supporting structure with rigid frames. The response of the structure has been calculated and the non-linear damping coefficient is determined using optimum LQR algorithm in an optimum vibration control system. The non-linear parameter of damping system is estimated and it has shown a significant advantage of application of this system device for vibration control of two adjacent tall building.

Keywords: active control, passive control, viscous dampers, structural control, vibration control, tall building

Procedia PDF Downloads 513

Authors: F. Rahimi Dehgolan, S. E. Khadem, S. Bab, M. Najafee

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Nowadays, using rotating systems like shafts and disks in industrial machines have been increased constantly. Dynamic stability is one of the most important factors in designing rotating systems. In this study, linear frequencies and stability of a coupled continuous flexible rotor-disk-blades system are studied. The Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is utilized to model the blade and shaft. The equations of motion are extracted using the extended Hamilton principle. The equations of motion have been simplified using the Coleman and complex transformations method. The natural frequencies of the linear part of the system are extracted, and the effects of various system parameters on the natural frequencies and decay rates (stability condition) are clarified. It can be seen that the centrifugal stiffening effect applied to the blades is the most important parameter for stability of the considered rotating system. This result highlights the importance of considering this stiffing effect in blades equation.

Keywords: rotating shaft, flexible blades, centrifugal stiffness, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Robert Caulk

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A generalized framework for adaptive machine learning deployments in algorithmic trading is introduced, tested, and released as open-source code. The presented software aims to test the hypothesis that recent data contains enough information to form a probabilistically favorable short-term price prediction. Further, the framework contains various adaptive machine learning techniques that are geared toward generating profit during strong trends and minimizing losses during trend changes. Results demonstrate that this adaptive machine learning approach is capable of capturing trends and generating profit. The presentation also discusses the importance of defining the parameter space associated with the dynamic training data-set and using the parameter space to identify and remove outliers from prediction data points. Meanwhile, the generalized architecture enables common users to exploit the powerful machinery while focusing on high-level feature engineering and model testing. The presentation also highlights common strengths and weaknesses associated with the presented technique and presents a broad range of well-tested starting points for feature set construction, target setting, and statistical methods for enforcing risk management and maintaining probabilistically favorable entry and exit points. The presentation also describes the end-to-end data processing tools associated with FreqAI, including automatic data fetching, data aggregation, feature engineering, safe and robust data pre-processing, outlier detection, custom machine learning and statistical tools, data post-processing, and adaptive training backtest emulation, and deployment of adaptive training in live environments. Finally, the generalized user interface is also discussed in the presentation. Feature engineering is simplified so that users can seed their feature sets with common indicator libraries (e.g. TA-lib, pandas-ta). The user also feeds data expansion parameters to fill out a large feature set for the model, which can contain as many as 10,000+ features. The presentation describes the various object-oriented programming techniques employed to make FreqAI agnostic to third-party libraries and external data sources. In other words, the back-end is constructed in such a way that users can leverage a broad range of common regression libraries (Catboost, LightGBM, Sklearn, etc) as well as common Neural Network libraries (TensorFlow, PyTorch) without worrying about the logistical complexities associated with data handling and API interactions. The presentation finishes by drawing conclusions about the most important parameters associated with a live deployment of the adaptive learning framework and provides the road map for future development in FreqAI.

Keywords: machine learning, market trend detection, open-source, adaptive learning, parameter space exploration

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Huazhen Lin, Ruihua Xu, Zhibin Jiang

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In this real-world case, timetabling the LRT network as a whole is rather challenging for the operator: they are supposed to create a timetable to avoid various route conflicts manually while satisfying a given interval and the number of rolling stocks, but the outcome is not satisfying. Therefore, the operator adopts a computerised timetabling tool, the Train Plan Maker (TPM), to cope with this problem. However, with various constraints in the dual-line network, it is still difficult to find an adequate pairing of turnback time, interval and rolling stocks’ number, which requires extra manual intervention. Aiming at current problems, a one-off model for timetabling is presented in this paper to simplify the procedure of timetabling. Before the timetabling procedure starts, this paper presents how the dual-line system with a ring and several branches is turned into a simpler structure. Then, a non-linear programming model is presented in two stages. In the first stage, the model sets a series of constraints aiming to calculate a proper timing for coordinating two lines by adjusting the turnback time at termini. Then, based on the result of the first stage, the model introduces a series of inequality constraints to avoid various route conflicts. With this model, an analysis is conducted to reveal the relation between the ratio of trains in different directions and the possible minimum interval, observing that the more imbalance the ratio is, the less possible to provide frequent service under such strict constraints.

Keywords: light rail transit (LRT), non-linear programming, railway timetabling, timetable coordination

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Golnaz Shahtahmassebi, Jose Maria Sarabia

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In this talk, we introduce a new class of conjugate prior distributions obtained from conditional specification methodology. We illustrate the application of such distribution in Bayesian change point detection in Poisson processes. We obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters using a general bivariate distribution with gamma conditionals. Simulation from the posterior is readily implemented using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. The Gibbs sampling is implemented even when using conditional densities that are incompatible or only compatible with an improper joint density. The application of such methods will be demonstrated using examples of simulated and real data.

Keywords: change point, bayesian inference, Gibbs sampler, conditional specification, gamma conditional distributions

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Jin Ho Kim, Yujeong Shin, Seong-Jin Cho, Dong-Jin Kim, U-Syn Ha

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Due to the development of the information industry and technologies, cellular phones have must not only function to communicate, but also have functions such as the Internet, e-banking, entertainment, etc. These phones are called smartphones. The performance of smartphones has improved, because of the various functions of smartphones, and the capacity of the battery has been increased gradually. Recently, linear generators have been embedded in smartphones in order to recharge the smartphone's battery. In this study, optimization is performed and an array change of permanent magnets is examined in order to increase efficiency. We propose an optimal design using design of experiments (DOE) to maximize the generated induced voltage. The thickness of the poleshoe and permanent magnet (PM), the height of the poleshoe and PM, and the thickness of the coil are determined to be design variables. We made 25 sampling points using an orthogonal array according to four design variables. We performed electromagnetic finite element analysis to predict the generated induced voltage using the commercial electromagnetic analysis software ANSYS Maxwell. Then, we made an approximate model using the Kriging algorithm, and derived optimal values of the design variables using an evolutionary algorithm. The commercial optimization software PIAnO (Process Integration, Automation, and Optimization) was used with these algorithms. The result of the optimization shows that the generated induced voltage is improved.

Keywords: smartphone, linear generator, design of experiment, approximate model, optimal design

Procedia PDF Downloads 345

Authors: Ming-Jong Tsai, T. M. Wu, R. C. Chu

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The purpose of this study is to develop an Advanced linear calibration Technique for air flow sensing by using CTA-based Hot wire Anemometry. It contains a host PC with Human Machine Interface, a wind tunnel, a wind speed controller, an automatic data acquisition module, and nonlinear calibration model. To improve the fitting error by using single fitting polynomial, this study proposes a Multiple three-order Polynomial Fitting Method (MPFM) for fitting the non-linear output of a CTA-based Hot wire Anemometry. The CTA-based anemometer with built-in fitting parameters is installed in the wind tunnel, and the wind speed is controlled by the PC-based controller. The Hot-Wire anemometer's thermistor resistance change is converted into a voltage signal or temperature differences, and then sent to the PC through a DAQ card. After completion measurements of original signal, the Multiple polynomial mathematical coefficients can be automatically calculated, and then sent into the micro-processor in the Hot-Wire anemometer. Finally, the corrected Hot-Wire anemometer is verified for the linearity, the repeatability, error percentage, and the system outputs quality control reports.

Keywords: flow rate sensing, hot wire, constant temperature anemometry (CTA), linear calibration, multiple three-order polynomial fitting method (MPFM), temperature compensation

Procedia PDF Downloads 416

Authors: A. Fettahoglu

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Theory of viscoelasticity is used by many researchers to represent behavior of many materials such as pavements on roads or bridges. Several researches used analytical methods and rheology to predict the material behaviors of simple models. Today, more complex engineering structures are analyzed using Finite Element Method, in which material behavior is embedded by means of three dimensional viscoelastic material laws. As a result, structures of unordinary geometry and domain like pavements of bridges can be analyzed by means of Finite Element Method and three dimensional viscoelastic equations. In the scope of this study, rheological models embedded in ANSYS, namely, generalized Maxwell elements and Prony series, which are two methods used by ANSYS to represent viscoelastic material behavior, are presented explicitly. Subsequently, a practical problem, which has an analytical solution given in literature, is used to verify the applicability of viscoelasticity tool embedded in ANSYS. Finally, amount of error in the results of ANSYS is compared with the analytical results to indicate the influence of used method and time step size.

Keywords: generalized Maxwell model, finite element method, prony series, time step size, viscoelasticity

Procedia PDF Downloads 369

Authors: Levicatus Mugenyi, Joaniter Nankabirwa, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, John Rek, Niel Hens, Moses Kamya, Grant Dorsey

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Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) reduces vector densities and malaria transmission, however, the most effective spraying intervals for IRS have not been well established. We aim to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using a modeling approach. Methods: We use a generalized additive model to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using the predicted malaria incidence. The model is applied to post IRS cohort clinical data from children aged 0.5–10 years in selected households in Tororo, historically a high malaria transmission setting in Uganda. Six rounds of IRS were implemented in Tororo during the study period (3 rounds with bendiocarb: December 2014 to December 2015, and 3 rounds with actellic: June 2016 to July 2018). Results: Monthly incidence of malaria from October 2014 to February 2019 decreased from 3.25 to 0.0 per person-years in the children under 5 years, and 1.57 to 0.0 for 5-10 year-olds. The optimal time interval for IRS differed between bendiocarb and actellic and by IRS round. It was estimated to be 17 and 40 weeks after the first round of bendiocarb and actellic, respectively. After the third round of actellic, 36 weeks was estimated to be optimal. However, we could not estimate from the data the optimal time after the second and third rounds of bendiocarb and after the second round of actellic. Conclusion: We conclude that to sustain the effect of IRS in a high-medium transmission setting, the second rounds of bendiocarb need to be applied roughly 17 weeks and actellic 40 weeks after the first round, and the timing differs for subsequent rounds. The amount of rainfall did not influence the trend in malaria incidence after IRS, as well as the IRS timing intervals. Our results suggest that shorter intervals for the IRS application can be more effective compared to the current practice, which is about 24 weeks for bendiocarb and 48 weeks for actellic. However, when considering our findings, one should account for the cost and drug resistance associated with IRS. We also recommend that the timing and incidence should be monitored in the future to improve these estimates.

Keywords: incidence, indoor residual spraying, generalized additive model, malaria

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: A. Abdikian

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A quantum breathing mode has been theatrically studied in quantum dusty plasma. By using linear quantum hydrodynamic model, not only the quantum dispersion relation of rotation mode but also void structure has been derived in the presence of an external magnetic field. Although the phase velocity of the magnetized quantum breathing mode is greater than that of unmagnetized quantum breathing mode, attenuation of the magnetized quantum breathing mode along radial distance seems to be slower than that of unmagnetized quantum breathing mode. Clearly, drawing the quantum breathing mode in the presence and absence of a magnetic field, we found that the magnetic field alters the distribution of dust particles and changes the radial and azimuthal velocities around the axis. Because the magnetic field rotates the dust particles and collects them, it could compensate the void structure.

Keywords: the linear quantum hydrodynamic model, the magnetized quantum breathing mode, the quantum dispersion relation of rotation mode, void structure

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Authors: L. Q. Yuan, J. Yang, A. Siddiqui

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A new regression uncertainty analysis methodology was applied to determine the uncertainties of the critical heat flux (CHF) power correlation for an advanced 43-element bundle design, which was developed by Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) to achieve improved economics, resource utilization and energy sustainability. The new methodology is considered more appropriate than the traditional methodology in the assessment of the experimental uncertainty associated with regressions. The methodology was first assessed using both the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) and the Taylor Series Method (TSM) for a simple linear regression model, and then extended successfully to a non-linear CHF power regression model (CHF power as a function of inlet temperature, outlet pressure and mass flow rate). The regression uncertainty assessed by MCM agrees well with that by TSM. An equation to evaluate the CHF power regression uncertainty was developed and expressed as a function of independent variables that determine the CHF power.

Keywords: CHF experiment, CHF correlation, regression uncertainty, Monte Carlo Method, Taylor Series Method

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Authors: Lamia Bourdache, Amar Djema

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The effect of non-Newtonian property (power law index n) on traveling waves of thin layer of power law fluid flowing over an inclined plane is investigated. For this, a simplified second-order two-equation model (SM) is used. The complete model is second-order four-equation (CM). It is derived by combining the weighted residual integral method and the lubrication theory. This is due to the fact that at the beginning of the instability waves, a very small number of waves is observed. Using a suitable set of test functions, second order terms are eliminated from the calculus so that the model is still accurate to the second order approximation. Linear, spatial, and temporal stabilities are studied. For travelling waves, a particular type of wave form that is steady in a moving frame, i.e., that travels at a constant celerity without changing its shape is studied. This type of solutions which are characterized by their celerity exists under suitable conditions, when the widening due to dispersion is balanced exactly by the narrowing effect due to the nonlinearity. Changing the parameter of celerity in some range allows exploring the entire spectrum of asymptotic behavior of these traveling waves. The (SM) model is converted into a three dimensional dynamical system. The result is that the model exhibits bifurcation scenarios such as heteroclinic, homoclinic, Hopf, and period-doubling bifurcations for different values of the power law index n. The influence of the non-Newtonian parameter on the nonlinear development of these travelling waves is discussed. It is found at the end that the qualitative characters of bifurcation scenarios are insensitive to the variation of the power law index.

Keywords: inclined plane, nonlinear stability, non-Newtonian, thin film

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Authors: Leonardo A. Ambrosio, Carlos. H. Silva Santos, Ivan E. L. Rodrigues, Ayumi K. de Campos, Leandro A. Machado

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In this work, we propose an algorithm developed under Python language for the modeling of ordinary scalar Bessel beams and their discrete superpositions and subsequent calculation of optical forces exerted over dielectric spherical particles. The mathematical formalism, based on the generalized Lorenz-Mie theory, is implemented in Python for its large number of free mathematical (as SciPy and NumPy), data visualization (Matplotlib and PyJamas) and multiprocessing libraries. We also propose an approach, provided by a synchronized Software as Service (SaaS) in cloud computing, to develop a user interface embedded on a mobile application, thus providing users with the necessary means to easily introduce desired unknowns and parameters and see the graphical outcomes of the simulations right at their mobile devices. Initially proposed as a free Android-based application, such an App enables data post-processing in cloud-based architectures and visualization of results, figures and numerical tables.

Keywords: Bessel Beams and Frozen Waves, Generalized Lorenz-Mie Theory, Numerical Methods, optical forces

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Cheng Zhang, James Marco, Walid Allafi, Truong Q. Dinh, W. D. Widanage

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Equivalent circuit models (ECMs) are widely used in battery management systems in electric vehicles and other battery energy storage systems. The battery dynamics and the model parameters vary under different working conditions, such as different temperature and state of charge (SOC) levels, and therefore online parameter identification can improve the modelling accuracy. This paper presents a way of online ECM parameter identification using a continuous time (CT) estimation method. The CT estimation method has several advantages over discrete time (DT) estimation methods for ECM parameter identification due to the widely separated battery dynamic modes and fast sampling. The presented method can be used for online SOC estimation. Test data are collected using a lithium ion cell, and the experimental results show that the presented CT method achieves better modelling accuracy compared with the conventional DT recursive least square method. The effectiveness of the presented method for online SOC estimation is also verified on test data.

Keywords: electric circuit model, continuous time domain estimation, linear integral filter method, parameter and SOC estimation, recursive least square

Procedia PDF Downloads 383

Authors: Wenliang Song, Yu Zhang, Hua Jin, Il Kim

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The self-assembly of the polypeptide (PP) into well-defined structures at different length scales is both biomimetic relevant and fundamentally interesting. Although there are various reports of nanostructures fabricated by the self-assembly of various PPs, directed self-assembly of PP into three-dimensional (3D) hierarchical structure has proven to be difficult, despite their importance for biological applications. Herein, an efficient method has been developed through living polymerization of phenylalanine N-Carboxy anhydride (NCA) towards the linear and cyclic polyphenylalanine, and the new invented swelling methodology can form diverse hierarchical polypeptide crystals. The solvent-dependent self-assembly behaviors of these homopolymers were characterized by high-resolution imaging tools such as atomic force microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, scanning electron microscope. The linear and cyclic polypeptide formed 3D nano hierarchical shapes, such as a sphere, cubic, stratiform and hexagonal star in different solvents. Notably, a crystalline packing model was proposed to explain the formation of 3D nanostructures based on the various diffraction patterns, looking forward to give an insight for their dissimilar shape inflection during the self-assembly process.

Keywords: self-assembly, polypeptide, bio-polymer, crystalline polymer

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Abdelaziz Rabhi, Mohamed Amrani, Abderrazek Ziane, Nabil Belkadi, Abdelraouf Hocini

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In this paper, a bedimensional simulation program of the electric characteristics of reverse biased lateral polysilicon PIN diode is presented. In this case we have numerically solved the system of partial differential equations formed by Poisson's equation and both continuity equations that take into account the effect of impact ionization. Therefore we will obtain the current-voltage characteristics (I-V) of the reverse-biased structure which may include the effect of breakdown.The geometrical model assumes that the polysilicon layer is composed by a succession of defined mean grain size crystallites, separated by lateral grain boundaries which are parallel to the metallurgic junction.

Keywords: breakdown, polycrystalline silicon, PIN, grain, impact ionization

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Yen-Luan Chen

Abstract:

Maintenance has a great impact on the capacity of production and on the quality of the products, and therefore, it deserves continuous improvement. Maintenance procedure done before a failure is called preventive maintenance (PM). Sequential PM, which specifies that a system should be maintained at a sequence of intervals with unequal lengths, is one of the commonly used PM policies. This article proposes a generalized sequential PM policy for a system subject to shocks with imperfect maintenance and random working time. The shocks arrive according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with varied intensity function in each maintenance interval. As a shock occurs, the system suffers two types of failures with number-dependent probabilities: type-I (minor) failure, which is rectified by a minimal repair, and type-II (catastrophic) failure, which is removed by a corrective maintenance (CM). The imperfect maintenance is carried out to improve the system failure characteristic due to the altered shock process. The sequential preventive maintenance-last (PML) policy is defined as that the system is maintained before any CM occurs at a planned time Ti or at the completion of a working time in the i-th maintenance interval, whichever occurs last. At the N-th maintenance, the system is replaced rather than maintained. This article first takes up the sequential PML policy with random working time and imperfect maintenance in reliability engineering. The optimal preventive maintenance schedule that minimizes the mean cost rate of a replacement cycle is derived analytically and determined in terms of its existence and uniqueness. The proposed models provide a general framework for analyzing the maintenance policies in reliability theory.

Keywords: optimization, preventive maintenance, random working time, minimal repair, replacement, reliability

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Authors: Kayijuka Idrissa

Abstract:

This work investigates a mathematical study for traffic flow and traffic density in Kigali city roads and the data collected from the national police of Rwanda in 2012. While working on this topic, some mathematical models were used in order to analyze and compare traffic variables. This work has been carried out on Kigali roads specifically at roundabouts from Kigali Business Center (KBC) to Prince House as our study sites. In this project, we used some mathematical tools to analyze the data collected and to understand the relationship between traffic variables. We applied the Poisson distribution method to analyze and to know the number of accidents occurred in this section of the road which is from KBC to Prince House. The results show that the accidents that occurred in 2012 were at very high rates due to the fact that this section has a very narrow single lane on each side which leads to high congestion of vehicles, and consequently, accidents occur very frequently. Using the data of speeds and densities collected from this section of road, we found that the increment of the density results in a decrement of the speed of the vehicle. At the point where the density is equal to the jam density the speed becomes zero. The approach is promising in capturing sudden changes on flow patterns and is open to be utilized in a series of intelligent management strategies and especially in noncurrent congestion effect detection and control.

Keywords: statistical methods, traffic flow, Poisson distribution, car moving technics

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Authors: Muhammed Ordu, Eren Demir, Chris Tofallis

Abstract:

The number of inpatient admissions in the UK has been significantly increasing over the past decade. These increases cause bed occupancy rates to exceed the target level (85%) set by the Department of Health in England. Therefore, hospital service managers are struggling to better manage key resource such as beds. On the other hand, this severe demand pressure might lead to confusion in wards. For example, patients can be admitted to the ward of another inpatient specialty due to lack of resources (i.e., bed). This study aims to develop a simulation-optimization model to reallocate the available number of beds in a mid-sized hospital in the UK. A hospital simulation model was developed to capture the stochastic behaviours of the hospital by taking into account the accident and emergency department, all outpatient and inpatient services, and the interactions between each other. A couple of outputs of the simulation model (e.g., average length of stay and revenue) were generated as inputs to be used in the optimization model. An integer linear programming was developed under a number of constraints (financial, demand, target level of bed occupancy rate and staffing level) with the aims of maximizing number of admitted patients. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was carried out by taking into account unexpected increases on inpatient demand over the next 12 months. As a result, the major findings of the approach proposed in this study optimally reallocate the available number of beds for each inpatient speciality and reveal that 74 beds are idle. In addition, the findings of the study indicate that the hospital wards will be able to cope with 14% demand increase at most in the projected year. In conclusion, this paper sheds a new light on how best to reallocate beds in order to cope with current and future demand for healthcare services.

Keywords: bed occupancy rate, bed reallocation, discrete event simulation, inpatient admissions, integer linear programming, projected usage

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Authors: Soulayma Smirani, Mourad Aidi, Taoufik Aguili

Abstract:

Energy harvesting has arisen as a prominent research area for low power delivery to RF devices. Rectennas have become a key element in this technology. In this paper, electromagnetic modeling of a rectenna system is presented. In our approach, a hybrid technique was demonstrated to associate both the method of auxiliary sources (MAS) and MoM-GEC (the method of moments combined with the generalized equivalent circuit technique). Auxiliary sources were used in order to substitute specific electronic devices. Therefore, a simple and controllable model is obtained. Also, it can easily be interconnected to form different topologies of rectenna arrays for more energy harvesting. At last, simulation results show the feasibility and simplicity of the proposed rectenna model with high precision and computation efficiency.

Keywords: computational electromagnetics, MoM-GEC method, rectennas, RF energy harvesting

Procedia PDF Downloads 171