Search results for: laboratory testing

Authors: Brian J. Biroscak

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In the United States (US), “sex trafficking” is defined at the federal level in the Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000 as encompassing a number of processes such as recruitment, transportation, and provision of a person for the purpose of a commercial sex act. It involves the use of force, fraud, or coercion, or in which the person induced to perform such act has not attained 18 years of age. Accumulating evidence suggests that sex trafficking is exacerbated by social and environmental stressors (e.g., pandemics). Given that “provision” is a key part of the definition, “provisioning systems” may offer a useful lens through which to study sex trafficking dynamics. Provisioning systems are the social systems connecting individuals, small groups, entities, and embedded communities as they seek to satisfy their needs and wants for goods, services, experiences and ideas through value-based exchange in communities. This project presents a conceptual framework for understanding sex trafficking dynamics in the context of the COVID pandemic. The framework is developed as a system dynamics simulation model based on published evidence, social and behavioral science theory, and key informant interviews with stakeholders from the Protection, Prevention, Prosecution, and Partnership sectors in one US state. This “4 P Paradigm” has been described as fundamental to the US government’s anti-trafficking strategy. The present research question is: “How do sex trafficking systems (e.g., supply, demand and price) interact with other provisioning systems (e.g., networks of organizations that help sexually exploited persons) to influence trafficking over time vis-à-vis the COVID pandemic?” Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders (n = 19) were analyzed based on grounded theory and combined for computer simulation. The first step (Problem Definition) was completed by open coding video-recorded interviews, supplemented by a literature review. The model depicts provision of sex trafficking services for victims and survivors as declining in March 2020, coincidental with COVID, but eventually rebounding. The second modeling step (Dynamic Hypothesis Formulation) was completed by open- and axial coding of interview segments, as well as consulting peer-reviewed literature. Part of the hypothesized explanation for changes over time is that the sex trafficking system behaves somewhat like a commodities market, with each of the other subsystems exhibiting delayed responses but collectively keeping trafficking levels below what they would be otherwise. Next steps (Model Building & Testing) led to a ‘proof of concept’ model that can be used to conduct simulation experiments and test various action ideas, by taking model users outside the entire system and seeing it whole. If sex trafficking dynamics unfold as hypothesized, e.g., oscillated post-COVID, then one potential leverage point is to address the lack of information feedback loops between the actual occurrence and consequences of sex trafficking and those who seek to prevent its occurrence, prosecute the traffickers, protect the victims and survivors, and partner with the other anti-trafficking advocates. Implications for researchers, administrators, and other stakeholders are discussed.

Keywords: pandemics, provisioning systems, sex trafficking, system dynamics modeling

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Authors: Marian Mihalik, Kornel Csach, Martin Kovalik, Matúš Mihalik, Martina Kubovčíková, Maria Zentková, Martin Vavra, Vladimír Girman, Jaroslav Briančin, Marija Perovic, Marija Boškovic, Magdalena Fitta, Robert Pelka

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Current nanomaterials for use in biomedicine are based mainly on iron oxides and on present knowledge on magnetic nanostructures. Manganites can represent another material which can be used optionally. Manganites and their unique electronic properties have been extensively studied in the last decades not only due to fundamental interest but to possible applications of colossal magnetoresistance, magnetocaloric effect, and ferroelectric properties. It was found that the oxygen-reduction reaction on perovskite oxide is intimately connected with metal ion e.g., orbital occupation. The effect of oxygen deviation from the stoichiometric composition on crystal structure was studied very carefully by many authors on LaMnO₃. Depending on oxygen content, the crystal structure changes from orthorhombic one to rhombohedric for oxygen content 3.1. In the case of hole-doped manganites, the change from the orthorhombic crystal structure, which is typical for La1-xCaxMnO3 based manganites, to the rhombohedric crystal structure (La1-xMxMnO₃ where M = K, Ag, and Sr based materials) results in an enormous increase of the Curie temperature. In our paper, we study the effect of oxygen content on crystal structure, thermal, and magnetic properties (including magnetocaloric effect) of La1-xAgxMnO₃nano particle system. The content of oxygen in samples was tuned by heat treatment in different thermal regimes and in various environment (air, oxygen, argon). Water nanosuspensions based on La0.80Ag0.15MnO₃ magnetic particles with the Curie temperature of about 43oC were prepared by two different approaches. First, by using a laboratory circulation mill for milling of powder in the presence of sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) and subsequent centrifugation. Second nanosuspension was prepared using an agate bowl, etching in citric acid and HNO3, ultrasound homogeniser, centrifugation, and dextran 40 kDA or 15 kDA as surfactant. Electrostatic stabilisation obtained by the first approach did not offer long term kinetic and aggregation colloidal stability and was unable to compensate for attractive forces between particles under a magnetic field. By the second approach, we prepared suspension oversaturated by dextran 40 kDA for steric stabilisation, with evidence of the presence of superparamagnetic behaviour. Low concentration of nanoparticles and not ideal coverage of nanoparticles impacting the stability of ferrofluids was the disadvantage of this approach. Strong steric stabilisation was observable at alcaic conditions under pH = ~10. Application of dextran 15 kDA leads to relatively stable ferrofluid with pH around physiological conditions, but desegregation of powder by HNO₃ was not effective enough, and the average size of fragments was to large of about 150 nm, and we did not see any signature of superparamagnetic behaviour. The prepared ferrofluids were characterised by scanning and transition microscope method, thermogravimetry, magnetization, and AC susceptibility measurements. Specific Absorption Rate measurements were undertaken on powder as well on ferrofluids in order to estimate the potential application of La₀.₈₀Ag₀.₁₅MnO₃ magnetic particles based ferrofluid for hyperthermia. Our complex study contains an investigation of biocompatibility and potential biohazard of this material.

Keywords: manganites, magnetic nanoparticles, oxygen content, magnetic phase transition, magnetocaloric effect, ferrofluid, hyperthermia

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Authors: Reuben Newell, Edward Archer, Alistair McIlhagger, Calvin Ralph

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Modern industry has developed a need for innovative 3D composite materials due to their attractive material properties. Composite materials are composed of a fibre reinforcement encased in a polymer matrix. The fibre reinforcement consists of warp, weft and binder yarns or tows woven together into a preform. The mechanical performance of composite material is largely controlled by the properties of the preform. As a result, the bulk of recent textile research has been focused on the design of high-strength preform architectures. Studies looking at optimisation of the weaving process have largely been neglected. It has been reported that yarns experience varying levels of damage during weaving, resulting in filament breakage and ultimately compromised composite mechanical performance. The weaving parameters involved in causing this yarn damage are not fully understood. Recent studies indicate that poor yarn tension control may be an influencing factor. As tension is increased, the yarn-to-yarn and yarn-to-weaving-equipment interactions are heightened, maximising damage. The correlation between yarn tension variation and weaving damage severity has never been adequately researched or quantified. A novel study is needed which accesses the influence of tension variation on the mechanical properties of woven yarns. This study has looked to quantify the variation of yarn tension throughout weaving and sought to link the impact of tension to weaving damage. Multiple yarns were randomly selected, and their tension was measured across the creel and shedding stages of weaving, using a hand-held tension meter. Sections of the same yarn were subsequently cut from the loom machine and tensile tested. A comparison study was made between the tensile strength of pristine and tensioned yarns to determine the induced weaving damage. Yarns from bobbins at the rear of the creel were under the least amount of tension (0.5-2.0N) compared to yarns positioned at the front of the creel (1.5-3.5N). This increase in tension has been linked to the sharp turn in the yarn path between bobbins at the front of the creel and creel I-board. Creel yarns under the lower tension suffered a 3% loss of tensile strength, compared to 7% for the greater tensioned yarns. During shedding, the tension on the yarns was higher than in the creel. The upper shed yarns were exposed to a decreased tension (3.0-4.5N) compared to the lower shed yarns (4.0-5.5N). Shed yarns under the lower tension suffered a 10% loss of tensile strength, compared to 14% for the greater tensioned yarns. Interestingly, the most severely damaged yarn was exposed to both the largest creel and shedding tensions. This study confirms for the first time that yarns under a greater level of tension suffer an increased amount of weaving damage. Significant variation of yarn tension has been identified across the creel and shedding stages of weaving. This leads to a variance of mechanical properties across the woven preform and ultimately the final composite part. The outcome from this study highlights the need for optimised yarn tension control during preform manufacture to minimize yarn-induced weaving damage.

Keywords: optimisation of preform manufacture, tensile testing of damaged tows, variation of yarn weaving tension, weaving damage

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Authors: J. C. Colmenares, M. Paszkiewicz-Gawron, D. Lomot, S. R. Pradhan, A. Qayyum

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This work is a report of recent selected experiments of photocatalysis intensification using flow microphotoreactors (fabricated by an ultrasound-based technique) for photocatalytic selective oxidation of benzyl alcohol (BnOH) to benzaldehyde (PhCHO) (in the frame of the concept of lignin valorization), and the proof of concept of intensifying a flow selective photocatalytic oxidation process by acoustic cavitation. The synthesized photocatalysts were characterized by using different techniques such as UV-Vis diffuse reflectance spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, nitrogen sorption, thermal gravimetric analysis, and transmission electron microscopy. More specifically, the work will be on: a Design and development of metal-containing TiO₂ coated microflow reactor for photocatalytic partial oxidation of benzyl alcohol: The current work introduces an efficient ultrasound-based metal (Fe, Cu, Co)-containing TiO₂ deposition on the inner walls of a perfluoroalkoxy alkanes (PFA) microtube under mild conditions. The experiments were carried out using commercial TiO₂ and sol-gel synthesized TiO₂. The rough surface formed during sonication is the site for the deposition of these nanoparticles in the inner walls of the microtube. The photocatalytic activities of these semiconductor coated fluoropolymer based microreactors were evaluated for the selective oxidation of BnOH to PhCHO in the liquid flow phase. The analysis of the results showed that various features/parameters are crucial, and by tuning them, it is feasible to improve the conversion of benzyl alcohol and benzaldehyde selectivity. Among all the metal-containing TiO₂ samples, the 0.5 at% Fe/TiO₂ (both, iron and titanium, as cheap, safe, and abundant metals) photocatalyst exhibited the highest BnOH conversion under visible light (515 nm) in a microflow system. This could be explained by the higher crystallite size, high porosity, and flake-like morphology. b. Designing/fabricating photocatalysts by a sonochemical approach and testing them in the appropriate flow sonophotoreactor towards sustainable selective oxidation of key organic model compounds of lignin: Ultrasonication (US)-assitedprecipitaion and US-assitedhydrosolvothermal methods were used for the synthesis of metal-oxide-based and metal-free-carbon-based photocatalysts, respectively. Additionally, we report selected experiments of intensification of a flow photocatalytic selective oxidation through the use of ultrasonic waves. The effort of our research is focused on the utilization of flow sonophotocatalysis for the selective transformation of lignin-based model molecules by nanostructured metal oxides (e.g., TiO₂), and metal-free carbocatalysts. A plethora of parameters that affects the acoustic cavitation phenomena, and as a result the potential of sonication were investigated (e.g. ultrasound frequency and power). Various important photocatalytic parameters such as the wavelength and intensity of the irradiated light, photocatalyst loading, type of solvent, mixture of solvents, and solution pH were also optimized.

Keywords: heterogeneous photo-catalysis, metal-free carbonaceous materials, selective redox flow sonophotocatalysis, titanium dioxide

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Authors: Jatziri Y. Moreno-Martinez, Arturo Galvan, Xavier Chavez Cardenas, Hiram Arroyo

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Several methods have been utilized to study the prediction of cracking of concrete structural under loading. The finite element analysis is an alternative that shows good results. The aim of this work was the numerical study of the width crack in reinforced concrete beams with dapped ends, these are frequently found in bridge girders and precast concrete construction. Properly restricting cracking is an important aspect of the design in dapped ends, it has been observed that the cracks that exceed the allowable widths are unacceptable in an aggressive environment for reinforcing steel. For simulating the crack width, the discrete crack approach was considered by means of a Cohesive Zone (CZM) Model using a function to represent the crack opening. Two cases of dapped-end were constructed and tested in the laboratory of Structures and Materials of Engineering Institute of UNAM. The first case considers a reinforcement based on hangers as well as on vertical and horizontal ring, the second case considers 50% of the vertical stirrups in the dapped end to the main part of the beam were replaced by an equivalent area (vertically projected) of diagonal bars under. The loading protocol consisted on applying symmetrical loading to reach the service load. The models were performed using the software package ANSYS v. 16.2. The concrete structure was modeled using three-dimensional solid elements SOLID65 capable of cracking in tension and crushing in compression. Drucker-Prager yield surface was used to include the plastic deformations. The reinforcement was introduced with smeared approach. Interface delamination was modeled by traditional fracture mechanics methods such as the nodal release technique adopting softening relationships between tractions and the separations, which in turn introduce a critical fracture energy that is also the energy required to break apart the interface surfaces. This technique is called CZM. The interface surfaces of the materials are represented by a contact elements Surface-to-Surface (CONTA173) with bonded (initial contact). The Mode I dominated bilinear CZM model assumes that the separation of the material interface is dominated by the displacement jump normal to the interface. Furthermore, the opening crack was taken into consideration according to the maximum normal contact stress, the contact gap at the completion of debonding, and the maximum equivalent tangential contact stress. The contact elements were placed in the crack re-entrant corner. To validate the proposed approach, the results obtained with the previous procedure are compared with experimental test. A good correlation between the experimental and numerical Load-Displacement curves was presented, the numerical models also allowed to obtain the load-crack width curves. In these two cases, the proposed model confirms the capability of predicting the maximum crack width, with an error of ± 30 %. Finally, the orientation of the crack is a fundamental for the prediction of crack width. The results regarding the crack width can be considered as good from the practical point view. Load-Displacement curve of the test and the location of the crack were able to obtain favorable results.

Keywords: cohesive zone model, dapped-end beams, discrete crack approach, finite element analysis

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Authors: Thi Phuong Pham

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This paper explores the intricate relationships between Sustainable Supply Chain Management (SSCM) practices, digital transformation (DT), and enterprise performance within the context of Vietnam. Over the past two decades, there has been a paradigm shift in supply chain management, with sustainability gaining prominence due to increasing concerns about climate change, labor practices, and the environmental impact of business operations. In the ever-evolving realm of global business, sustainability and digital transformation (DT) intersecting dynamics have become pivotal catalysts for organizational success. This research investigates how integrating SSCM with DT can enhance enterprise performance, a subject of significant relevance as Vietnam undergoes rapid economic growth and digital transformation. The primary objectives of this research are twofold: (1) to examine the effects of SSCM practices on enterprise performance in three critical aspects: economic, environmental, and social performance in Vietnam and (2) to explore the mediating role of DT in this relationship. By analyzing these dynamics, the study aims to provide valuable insights for policymakers and the academic community regarding the potential benefits of aligning SSCM principles with digital technologies. To achieve these objectives, the research employs a robust mixed-method approach. The research begins with a comprehensive literature review to establish a theoretical framework that underpins the empirical analysis. Data collection was conducted through a structured survey targeting Vietnamese enterprises, with the survey instrument designed to measure SSCM practices, DT, and enterprise performance using a five-point Likert scale. The reliability and validity of the survey were ensured by pre-testing with industry practitioners and refining the questionnaire based on their feedback. For data analysis, structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to quantify the direct effects of SSCM on enterprise performance, while mediation analysis using the PROCESS Macro 4.0 in SPSS was conducted to assess the mediating role of DT. The findings reveal that SSCM practices positively influence enterprise performance by enhancing operational efficiency, reducing costs, and improving sustainability metrics. Furthermore, DT acts as a significant mediator, amplifying the positive impacts of SSCM practices through improved data management, enhanced communication, and more agile supply chain processes. These results underscore the critical role of DT in maximizing the benefits of SSCM practices, particularly in a developing economy like Vietnam. This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by highlighting the synergistic effects of SSCM and DT on enterprise performance. It offers practical implications for businesses that enhance their sustainability and digital capabilities, providing a roadmap for integrating these two pivotal aspects to achieve competitive advantage. The study's insights can also inform governmental policies designed to foster sustainable economic growth and digital innovation in Vietnam.

Keywords: sustainable supply chain management, digital transformation, enterprise performance, Vietnam

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Authors: A. Peyvan, D. Li, J. Komperda, F. Mashayek

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Turbulence can be observed in a variety fluid motions in nature and industrial applications. Recent investment in high-speed aircraft and propulsion systems has revitalized fundamental research on turbulent flows. In these systems, capturing chaotic fluid structures with different length and time scales is accomplished through the Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) approach since it accurately simulates flows down to smallest dissipative scales, i.e., Kolmogorov’s scales. The discontinuous spectral element method (DSEM) is a high-order technique that uses spectral functions for approximating the solution. The DSEM code has been developed by our research group over the course of more than two decades. Recently, the code has been improved to run large cases in the order of billions of solution points. Running big simulations requires a considerable amount of RAM. Therefore, the DSEM code must be highly parallelized and able to start on multiple computational nodes on an HPC cluster with distributed memory. However, some pre-processing procedures, such as determining global element information, creating a global face list, and assigning global partitioning and element connection information of the domain for communication, must be done sequentially with a single processing core. A separate code has been written to perform the pre-processing procedures on a local machine. It stores the minimum amount of information that is required for the DSEM code to start in parallel, extracted from the mesh file, into text files (pre-files). It packs integer type information with a Stream Binary format in pre-files that are portable between machines. The files are generated to ensure fast read performance on different file-systems, such as Lustre and General Parallel File System (GPFS). A new subroutine has been added to the DSEM code to read the startup files using parallel MPI I/O, for Lustre, in a way that each MPI rank acquires its information from the file in parallel. In case of GPFS, in each computational node, a single MPI rank reads data from the file, which is specifically generated for the computational node, and send them to other ranks on the node using point to point non-blocking MPI communication. This way, communication takes place locally on each node and signals do not cross the switches of the cluster. The read subroutine has been tested on Argonne National Laboratory’s Mira (GPFS), National Center for Supercomputing Application’s Blue Waters (Lustre), San Diego Supercomputer Center’s Comet (Lustre), and UIC’s Extreme (Lustre). The tests showed that one file per node is suited for GPFS and parallel MPI I/O is the best choice for Lustre file system. The DSEM code relies on heavily optimized linear algebra operation such as matrix-matrix and matrix-vector products for calculation of the solution in every time-step. For this, the code can either make use of its matrix math library, BLAS, Intel MKL, or ATLAS. This fact and the discontinuous nature of the method makes the DSEM code run efficiently in parallel. The results of weak scaling tests performed on Blue Waters showed a scalable and efficient performance of the code in parallel computing.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, direct numerical simulation, spectral element, turbulent flow

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Authors: Sahar El Shair, Laura Greco, William Reay, Murray Cairns

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Background: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, systematic, inflammatory, autoimmune disease that involves damages to joints and erosions to the associated bones and cartilage, resulting in reduced physical function and disability. RA is a multifactorial disorder influenced by heterogenous genetic and environmental factors. Whilst different medications have proven successful in reducing inflammation associated with RA, they often come with significant side effects and limited efficacy. To address this, the novel pharmagenic enrichment score (PES) algorithm was tested in self-reported RA patients from the UK Biobank (UKBB), which is a cohort of predominantly European ancestry, and identified individuals with a high genetic risk in clinically actionable biological pathways to identify novel opportunities for precision interventions and drug repurposing to treat RA. Methods and materials: Genetic association data for rheumatoid arthritis was derived from publicly available genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary statistics (N=97173). The PES framework exploits competitive gene set enrichment to identify pathways that are associated with RA to explore novel treatment opportunities. This data is then integrated into WebGestalt, Drug Interaction database (DGIdb) and DrugBank databases to identify existing compounds with existing use or potential for repurposed use. The PES for each of these candidates was then profiled in individuals with RA in the UKBB (Ncases = 3,719, Ncontrols = 333,160). Results A total of 209 pathways with known drug targets after multiple testing correction were identified. Several pathways, including interferon gamma signaling and TID pathway (which relates to a chaperone that modulates interferon signaling), were significantly associated with self-reported RA in the UKBB when adjusting for age, sex, assessment centre month and location, RA polygenic risk and 10 principal components. These pathways have a major role in RA pathogenesis, including autoimmune attacks against certain citrullinated proteins, synovial inflammation, and bone loss. Encouragingly, many also relate to the mechanism of action of existing RA medications. The analyses also revealed statistically significant association between RA polygenic scores and self-reported RA with individual PES scorings, highlighting the potential utility of the PES algorithm in uncovering additional genetic insights that could aid in the identification of individuals at risk for RA and provide opportunities for more targeted interventions. Conclusions In this study, pharmacologically annotated genetic risk was explored through the PES framework to overcome inter-individual heterogeneity and enable precision drug repurposing in RA. The results showed a statistically significant association between RA polygenic scores and self-reported RA and individual PES scorings for 3,719 RA patients. Interestingly, several enriched PES pathways were targeted by already approved RA drugs. In addition, the analysis revealed genetically supported drug repurposing opportunities for future treatment of RA with a relatively safe profile.

Keywords: rheumatoid arthritis, precision medicine, drug repurposing, system biology, bioinformatics

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Authors: Naoko Ono, Junko Kato

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According to the Ministry of Justice, 9,044,000 foreigners visited Japan in 2010. The number of foreign residents in Japan was over 2,134,000 at the end of 2010. Further, medical tourism has emerged as a new area of business. Against this background, language barriers put the health of foreigners in Japan at risk, because they have difficulty in accessing health care and communicating with medical professionals. Medical interpreting training is urgently needed in response to language problems resulting from the rapid increase in the number of foreign workers in Japan over recent decades. Especially, there is a growing need in medical settings in Japan to speak international languages for communication, with Tokyo selected as the host city of the 2020 Summer Olympics. Due to the limited number of practical activities on medical interpreting, it is difficult for learners to acquire the interpreting skills. In order to eliminate the shortcoming, a web-based English-Japanese medical interpreting training system was developed. We conducted a literature review to identify learning contents, core competencies for medical interpreters by using Pubmed, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar. Selected papers were investigated to find core competencies in medical interpreting. Eleven papers were selected through literature review indicating core competencies for medical interpreters. Core competencies in medical interpreting abstracted from the literature review, showed consistency in previous research whilst the content of the programs varied in domestic and international training programs for medical interpreters. Results of the systematic review indicated five core competencies: (a) maintaining accuracy and completeness; (b) medical terminology and understanding the human body; (c) behaving ethically and making ethical decisions; (d) nonverbal communication skills; and (e) cross-cultural communication skills. We developed an e-leaning program for training medical interpreters. A Web-based Medical Interpreter Training Program which cover these competencies was developed. The program included the following : online word list (Quizlet), allowing student to study online and on their smartphones; self-study tool (Quizlet) for help with dictation and spelling; word quiz (Quizlet); test-generating system (Quizlet); Interactive body game (BBC);Online resource for understanding code of ethics in medical interpreting; Webinar about non-verbal communication; and Webinar about incompetent vs. competent cultural care. The design of a virtual environment allows the execution of complementary experimental exercises for learners of medical interpreting and introduction to theoretical background of medical interpreting. Since this system adopts a self-learning style, it might improve the time and lack of teaching material restrictions of the classroom method. In addition, as a teaching aid, virtual medical interpreting is a powerful resource for the understanding how actual medical interpreting can be carried out. The developed e-learning system allows remote access, enabling students to perform experiments at their own place, without being physically in the actual laboratory. The web-based virtual environment empowers students by granting them access to laboratories during their free time. A practical example will be presented in order to show capabilities of the system. The developed web-based training program for medical interpreters could bridge the gap between medical professionals and patients with limited English proficiency.

Keywords: e-learning, language education, moodle, medical interpreting

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Authors: Cristina Diaz, Lucia Perez, Simone Visigalli, Giuseppe Di Florio, Gonzalo Fuentes, Roberto Canziani, Paolo Gronchi

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During the last 50 years, the selection of materials is one of the main decisions in machine design for different industrial applications. It is due to numerous physical, chemical, mechanical and technological factors to consider in it. Corrosion effects are related with all of these factors and impact in the life cycle, machine incidences and the costs for the life of the machine. Corrosion affects the deterioration or destruction of metals due to the reaction with the environment, generally wet. In food industry, dewatering industry, concrete industry, paper industry, etc. corrosion is an unsolved problem and it might introduce some alterations of some characteristics in the final product. Nowadays, depending on the selected metal, its surface and its environment of work, corrosion prevention might be a change of metal, use a coating, cathodic protection, use of corrosion inhibitors, etc. In the vast majority of the situations, use of a corrosion resistant material or in its defect, a corrosion protection coating is the solution. Stainless steels are widely used in machine design, because of their strength, easily cleaned capacity, corrosion resistance and appearance. Typical used are AISI 304 and AISI 316. However, their benefits don’t fit every application, and some coatings are required against corrosion such as some paintings, galvanizing, chrome plating, SiO₂, TiO₂ or ZrO₂ coatings, etc. In this work, some coatings based in a bilayer made of Titanium-Tantalum, Titanium-Niobium, Titanium-Hafnium or Titanium-Zirconium, have been developed used magnetron sputtering configuration by PVD (Physical Vapor Deposition) technology, for trying to reduce corrosion effects on AISI 304, AISI 316 and comparing it with Titanium alloy substrates. Ti alloy display exceptional corrosion resistance to chlorides, sour and oxidising acidic media and seawater. In this study, Ti alloy (99%) has been included for comparison with coated AISI 304 and AISI 316 stainless steel. Corrosion tests were conducted by a Gamry Instrument under ASTM G5-94 standard, using different electrolytes such as tomato salsa, wine, olive oil, wet compost, a mix of sand and concrete with water and NaCl for testing corrosion in different industrial environments. In general, in all tested environments, the results showed an improvement of corrosion resistance of all coated AISI 304 and AISI 316 stainless steel substrates when they were compared to uncoated stainless steel substrates. After that, comparing these results with corrosion studies on uncoated Ti alloy substrate, it was observed that in some cases, coated stainless steel substrates, reached similar current density that uncoated Ti alloy. Moreover, Titanium-Zirconium and Titanium-Tantalum coatings showed for all substrates in study including coated Ti alloy substrates, a reduction in current density more than two order in magnitude. As conclusion, Ti-Ta, Ti-Zr, Ti-Nb and Ti-Hf coatings have been developed for improving corrosion resistance of AISI 304 and AISI 316 materials. After corrosion tests in several industry environments, substrates have shown improvements on corrosion resistance. Similar processes have been carried out in Ti alloy (99%) substrates. Coated AISI 304 and AISI 316 stainless steel, might reach similar corrosion protection on the surface than uncoated Ti alloy (99%). Moreover, coated Ti Alloy (99%) might increase its corrosion resistance using these coatings.

Keywords: coatings, corrosion, PVD, stainless steel

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Authors: Seungsik Yu, Minho Kang

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As the threat of terrorism to nuclear facilities is increasing globally after the attacks of September 11, we are striving to recognize the physical protection system and strengthen the emergency response system. Since 2015, Korea has implemented physical protection security exercise for nuclear facilities. The exercise should be carried out with full cooperation between the operator and response forces. Performance testing of the physical protection system should include appropriate exercises, for example, force-on-force exercises, to determine if the response forces can provide an effective and timely response to prevent sabotage. Significant deficiencies and actions taken should be reported as stipulated by the competent authority. The IAEA(International Atomic Energy Agency) is also preparing force-on-force exercise program documents to support exercise of member states. Currently, ROK(Republic of Korea) is implementing exercise on the force-on-force exercise evaluation system which is developed by itself for the nuclear power plant, and it is necessary to establish the exercise procedure considering the use of the force-on-force exercise evaluation system. The purpose of this study is to establish the work procedures of the three major organizations related to the force-on-force exercise of nuclear power plants in ROK, which conduct exercise using force-on-force exercise evaluation system. The three major organizations are composed of licensee, KINAC (Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control), and the NSSC(Nuclear Safety and Security Commission). Major activities are as follows. First, the licensee establishes and conducts an exercise plan, and when recommendations are derived from the result of the exercise, it prepares and carries out a force-on-force result report including a plan for implementation of the recommendations. Other detailed tasks include consultation with surrounding units for adversary, interviews with exercise participants, support for document evaluation, and self-training to improve the familiarity of the MILES (Multiple Integrated Laser Engagement System). Second, KINAC establishes a force-on-force exercise plan review report and reviews the force-on-force exercise plan report established by licensee. KINAC evaluate force-on-force exercise using exercise evaluation system and prepare training evaluation report. Other detailed tasks include MILES training, adversary consultation, management of exercise evaluation systems, and analysis of exercise evaluation results. Finally, the NSSC decides whether or not to approve the force-on-force exercise and makes a correction request to the nuclear facility based on the exercise results. The most important part of ROK's force-on-force exercise system is the analysis through the exercise evaluation system implemented by KINAC after the exercise. The analytical method proceeds in the order of collecting data from the exercise evaluation system and analyzing the collected data. The exercise application process of the exercise evaluation system introduced in ROK in 2016 will be concretely set up, and a system will be established to provide objective and consistent conclusions between exercise sessions. Based on the conclusions drawn up, the ultimate goal is to complement the physical protection system of licensee so that the system makes licensee respond effectively and timely against sabotage or unauthorized removal of nuclear materials.

Keywords: Force-on-Force exercise, nuclear power plant, physical protection, sabotage, unauthorized removal

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Authors: Tshimangadzo Jeanette Raedani, Edgar Musie, Afsatou Traore

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Background: Street-vended meats, including chicken, pork, and beef, are popular in urban areas worldwide due to their convenience and affordability. However, these meats often pose a significant risk of foodborne diseases. The high water activity, protein content, and nearly neutral pH of meat create conditions conducive to the growth of pathogenic bacteria. Street foods, particularly meats, are frequently linked to outbreaks of foodborne illnesses due to potential contamination from improper handling and preparation. This study aimed to assess the microbial quality and safety of street-vended ready-to-eat meat sold in the Thohoyandou area. Method: The study involved collecting 168 samples of street-vended meat, split evenly between chicken (n=84) and beef (n=84), from various vendors around Thohoyandou. The samples were randomly selected and transported in sterile conditions to the Department of Food Microbiology at the University of Venda for analysis. Each 10-gram sample was cultured in selective media: MSA for Staphylococcus aureus, EMB for E. coli O157, XLD agar for Salmonella, and Sorbitol McConkey for Shigella. After initial culturing, the presumptive colonies were sub-cultured for purification and identified through Gram staining and biochemical tests, including Catalase, API 20E, Klingler Iron Agar Test, and Vitek 2 system. Antibiotic susceptibility was tested using agents such as Ampicillin, Chloramphenicol, Penicillin, Neomycin, Tetracycline, Streptomycin, and Amoxicillin. Molecular characterization was performed to identify E. coli pathotypes using multiplex PCR. Results: Out of 168 samples tested, 32 (19%) were positive for Staphylococcus spp., with the highest prevalence found in cooked chicken meat. The most common staphylococcus species identified were S. xylosus (13.2%) and S. saprophyticus (10.5%). E. coli was present in 29 (19.3%) of the samples, with the highest prevalence in fried chicken. Antibiotic susceptibility testing showed that 100% of E. coli isolates were resistant to Ampicillin, Tetracycline, and Penicillin, but 100% were susceptible to Neomycin. Staphylococcus spp. isolates were also 100% resistant to Ampicillin and 100% susceptible to Neomycin. The study detected a range of virulence genes in E. coli, with prevalence rates from 13.33% to 86.67%. The identified pathotypes included EPEC, EHEC, ETEC, EAEC, and EIEC, with many isolates showing mixed pathotypes. Conclusion: The study highlighted that the microbial quality and safety of street-vended meats in Thohoyandou are inadequate, rendering them unsafe for consumption. The presence of pathogenic microorganisms in both beef and chicken samples indicates significant risks associated with poor personal hygiene and food preparation practices. This underscores the need for improved monitoring and stricter food safety measures to prevent foodborne diseases and ensure consumer safety.

Keywords: meat, microbial analysis, street vendors, E. coli

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Authors: Sebastian Kehne, Alexander Epple, Werner Herfs

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A new method for optimal selection of components for multi-axes forward-feed drive systems is proposed in which the choice of motors, gear boxes and ball screw drives is optimized. Essential is here the synchronization of electrical and mechanical frequency behavior of all axes because even advanced controls (like H∞-controls) can only control a small part of the mechanical modes – namely only those of observable and controllable states whose value can be derived from the positions of extern linear length measurement systems and/or rotary encoders on the motor or gear box shafts. Further problems are the unknown processing forces like cutting forces in machine tools during normal operation which make the estimation and control via an observer even more difficult. To start with, the open source Modelica Feed Drive Library which was developed at the Laboratory for Machine Tools, and Production Engineering (WZL) is extended from one axis design to the multi axes design. It is capable to simulate the mechanical, electrical and thermal behavior of permanent magnet synchronous machines with inverters, different gear boxes and ball screw drives in a mechanical system. To keep the calculation time down analytical equations are used for field and torque producing equivalent circuit, heat dissipation and mechanical torque at the shaft. As a first step, a small machine tool with a working area of 635 x 315 x 420 mm is taken apart, and the mechanical transfer behavior is measured with an impulse hammer and acceleration sensors. With the frequency transfer functions, a mechanical finite element model is built up which is reduced with substructure coupling to a mass-damper system which models the most important modes of the axes. The model is modelled with Modelica Feed Drive Library and validated by further relative measurements between machine table and spindle holder with a piezo actor and acceleration sensors. In a next step, the choice of possible components in motor catalogues is limited by derived analytical formulas which are based on well-known metrics to gain effective power and torque of the components. The simulation in Modelica is run with different permanent magnet synchronous motors, gear boxes and ball screw drives from different suppliers. To speed up the optimization different black-box optimization methods (Surrogate-based, gradient-based and evolutionary) are tested on the case. The objective that was chosen is to minimize the integral of the deviations if a step is given on the position controls of the different axes. Small values are good measures for a high dynamic axes. In each iteration (evaluation of one set of components) the control variables are adjusted automatically to have an overshoot less than 1%. It is obtained that the order of the components in optimization problem has a deep impact on the speed of the black-box optimization. An approach to do efficient black-box optimization for multi-axes design is presented in the last part. The authors would like to thank the German Research Foundation DFG for financial support of the project “Optimierung des mechatronischen Entwurfs von mehrachsigen Antriebssystemen (HE 5386/14-1 | 6954/4-1)” (English: Optimization of the Mechatronic Design of Multi-Axes Drive Systems).

Keywords: ball screw drive design, discrete optimization, forward feed drives, gear box design, linear drives, machine tools, motor design, multi-axes design

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: Abdalla Ahmed Abdrabou Emam Eldeib

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For more than a century, the Hague Conference has tackled issues in the most challenging areas of private international law, including family law. Its actions in the realm of international child abduction have been remarkable in two ways during the last two decades. First, on October 25, 1980, the Hague Convention on the Civil Aspects of International Child Abduction (the Convention) was promulgated as an unusually inventive and powerful tool. Second, the Convention is rapidly becoming more prominent in the development of international child law. By that time, overseas travel had grown more convenient, and more couples were marrying or travelling across national lines. At the same time, parental separation and divorce have increased, leading to an increase in international child custody battles. The convention they drafted avoids legal quagmires and addresses extra-legal issues well. It literally restores the kid to its place of usual residence by establishing that the youngster was unlawfully abducted from that position or, alternatively, was wrongfully kept abroad after an allowed visit. Legal custody of a child of a contested parent is usually followed by the child's abduction or unlawful relocation to another country by the non-custodial parent or other persons. If a child's custodial parent lives outside of Egypt, the youngster may be kidnapped and brought to Egypt. It's natural to ask what laws should apply and what legal norms should be followed while hearing individual instances. This study comprehensively evaluates and estimates the relevant Hague Child Abduction Convention and the current situation in Egypt and which law is applicable for child custody. In addition, this research emphasis, detail, and focus on the position of Cross-border parental child abductions in Egypt. Moreover, examine the Islamic law compared to the Hague Convention on Child Custody in detail, as well as mentioning the treatment of Islamic countries in this matter in general and Egypt's treatment of this matter in particular, as well as the criticism directed at Egypt regarding the application and implementation of child custody issues. The present research backs up this method by using non-doctrinal techniques, including surveys, interviews, and dialogues. An important objective of this research is to examine the factors that contribute to parental child abduction. In this case, family court attorneys and other interested parties serve as the target audience from whom data is collected. A survey questionnaire was developed and sent to the target population in order to collect data for future empirical testing to validate the identified critical factors on Parental Child Abduction. The main finding in this study is breaking the reservations of many Muslim countries to join the Hague Convention with regard to child custody., Likewise, clarify the problems of implementation in practice in cases of kidnapping a child from one of the parents and traveling with him outside the borders of the country. Finally, this study is to provide suggestions for reforming the current Egyptian Family Law to make it an effective and efficient for all dispute's resolution mechanism and the possibility of joining The Hague Convention.

Keywords: egyptian family law, Hague child abduction convention, child custody, cross-border parental child abductions in egypt

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Alla Ovsyannikova, Oksana Rymar, Elena Shakhtshneider, Mikhail Voevoda

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In Siberia endocrinologists increasingly noted young patients with the course of diabetes mellitus differing from 1 and 2 types. Therefore we did a molecular genetic study for this group of patients to verify the monogenic forms of diabetes mellitus in them and researched the characteristics of this pathology. When confirming the monogenic form of diabetes, we performed a correction therapy for many patients (transfer from insulin to tablets), prevented specific complications, examined relatives and diagnosed their diabetes at the preclinical stage, revealed phenotypic characteristics of the pathology which led to the high significance of this work. Materials and Methods: We observed 5 patients (4 families). We diagnosed MODY (Maturity Onset Diabetes of the Young) during the molecular genetic testing (direct automatic sequencing). All patients had a full clinical examination, blood samples for biochemical research, determination of C-peptide and TSH, antibodies to b-cells, microalbuminuria, abdominal ultrasound, heart and thyroid ultrasound, examination of ophthalmologist. Results: We diagnosed 3 rare types of MODY: two women had MODY8, one man – MODY6 and man and his mother - MODY12. Patients with types 8 and 12 had clinical features. Age of onset hyperglycemia ranged from 26 to 34 years. In a patient with MODY6 fasting hyperglycemia was detected during a routine examination. Clinical symptoms, complications were not diagnosed. The patient observes a diet. In the first patient MODY8 was detected during first pregnancy, she had itchy skin and mostly postprandial hyperglycemia. Upon examination we determined glycated hemoglobin 7.5%, retinopathy, non-proliferative stage, peripheral neuropathy. She uses a basic bolus insulin therapy. The second patient with MODY8 also had clinical manifestations of hyperglycemia (pruritus, thirst), postprandial hyperglycemia and diabetic nephropathy, a stage of microalbuminuria. The patient was diagnosed autoimmune thyroiditis. She used inhibitors of DPP-4. The patient with MODY12 had an aggressive course. In the detection of hyperglycemia he had complaints of visual impairment, intense headaches, leg cramps. The patient had a history of childhood convulsive seizures of non-epileptic genesis, without organic pathology, which themselves were stopped at the age of 12 years. When we diagnosed diabetes a patient was 28 years, he had hypertriglyceridemia, atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid artery, proliferative retinopathy (lacerocoagulation). Diabetes and early myocardial infarction were observed in three cases in family. We prescribe therapy with sulfonylureas and SGLT-2 inhibitors with a positive effect. At the patient's mother diabetes began at a later age (30 years) and a less aggressive course was observed. She also has hypertriglyceridemia and uses oral hypoglycemic drugs. Conclusions: 1) When young patients with hyperglycemia have extrapancreatic pathologies and diabetic complications with a short duration of diabetes we can assume they have one of type of MODY diabetes. 2) In patients with monogenic forms of diabetes mellitus, the clinical manifestations of hyperglycemia in each succeeding generation are revealed at an earlier age. Research had increased our knowledge of the monogenic forms of diabetes. The reported study was supported by RSCF, research project No. 14-15-00496-P.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus, MODY diabetes, monogenic forms, young patients

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

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Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Muhammad Fayyaz Nazir, Ellen Wayenberg, Shahzadaah Faahed Qureshi

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Introduction: The study is based on the Contextual Interaction Theory (CIT) constructs to explore the role of policy actors in implementing the COVID-19 Disease Prevention and Control (DP&C) Policy. The study analyzes the role of healthcare workers' contextual factors, such as cognition, motives, and resources, and their interactions in implementing Social Distancing (SD). In this way, we test a two actors policy implementation theory, i.e., the CIT in a three-actor context. Methods: Data was collected through document analysis and semi-structured interviews. For a qualitative study design, interviews were conducted with questions on cognition, motives, and resources from the healthcare workers involved in implementing SD in the local context in Multan – Pakistan. The possible interactions resulting from contextual factors of the policy actors – healthcare workers were identified through framework analysis protocol guided by CIT and supported by trustworthiness criterion and data saturation. Results: This inquiry resulted in theory application, addition, and enrichment. The theoretical application in the three actor's contexts illustrates the different levels of motives, cognition, and resources of healthcare workers – senior administrators, managers, and healthcare professionals. The senior administrators working in National Command and Operations Center (NCOC), Provincial Technical Committees (PTCs), and Districts Covid Teams (DCTs) were playing their role with high motivation. They were fully informed about the policy and moderately resourceful. The policy implementors: healthcare managers working on implementing the SD within their respective hospitals were playing their role with high motivation and were fully informed about the policy. However, they lacked the required resources to implement SD. The target medical and allied healthcare professionals were moderately motivated but lack of resources and information. The interaction resulted in cooperation and the need for learning to manage the future healthcare crisis. However, the lack of resources created opposition to the implementation of SD. Objectives of the Study: The study aimed to apply a two actors theory in a multi actors context. We take this as an opportunity to qualitatively test the theory in a novel situation of the Covid-19 pandemic and make way for its quantitative application by designing a survey instrument so that implementation researchers can apply CIT through multivariate analyses or higher-order statistical modeling. Conclusion: Applying two actors' implementation theory in exploring a complex case of healthcare intervention in three actors context is a unique work that has never been done before, up to the best of our knowledge. So, the work will contribute to the policy implementation studies by applying, extending, and enriching an implementation theory in a novel case of the Covi-19 pandemic, ultimately fulfilling the gap in implementation literature. Policy institutions and other low or middle-income countries can learn from this research and improve SD implementation by working on the variables with weak significance levels.

Keywords: COVID-19, disease prevention and control policy, implementation, policy actors, social distancing

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: R. Yuan, S. Sivasankaran, N. Dutta, K. Ebrahimi

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This paper investigates the software capability and computer-aided engineering (CAE) method of modelling transient heat transfer process occurred in the vehicle underhood region during vehicle thermal soak phase. The heat retention from the soak period will be beneficial to the cold start with reduced friction loss for the second 14°C worldwide harmonized light-duty vehicle test procedure (WLTP) cycle, therefore provides benefits on both CO₂ emission reduction and fuel economy. When vehicle undergoes soak stage, the airflow and the associated convective heat transfer around and inside the engine bay is driven by the buoyancy effect. This effect along with thermal radiation and conduction are the key factors to the thermal simulation of the engine bay to obtain the accurate fluids and metal temperature cool-down trajectories and to predict the temperatures at the end of the soak period. Method development has been investigated in this study on a light-duty passenger vehicle using coupled aerodynamic-heat transfer thermal transient modelling method for the full vehicle under 9 hours of thermal soak. The 3D underhood flow dynamics were solved inherently transient by the Lattice-Boltzmann Method (LBM) method using the PowerFlow software. This was further coupled with heat transfer modelling using the PowerTHERM software provided by Exa Corporation. The particle-based LBM method was capable of accurately handling extremely complicated transient flow behavior on complex surface geometries. The detailed thermal modelling, including heat conduction, radiation, and buoyancy-driven heat convection, were integrated solved by PowerTHERM. The 9 hours cool-down period was simulated and compared with the vehicle testing data of the key fluid (coolant, oil) and metal temperatures. The developed CAE method was able to predict the cool-down behaviour of the key fluids and components in agreement with the experimental data and also visualised the air leakage paths and thermal retention around the engine bay. The cool-down trajectories of the key components obtained for the 9 hours thermal soak period provide vital information and a basis for the further development of reduced-order modelling studies in future work. This allows a fast-running model to be developed and be further imbedded with the holistic study of vehicle energy modelling and thermal management. It is also found that the buoyancy effect plays an important part at the first stage of the 9 hours soak and the flow development during this stage is vital to accurately predict the heat transfer coefficients for the heat retention modelling. The developed method has demonstrated the software integration for simulating buoyancy-driven heat transfer in a vehicle underhood region during thermal soak with satisfying accuracy and efficient computing time. The CAE method developed will allow integration of the design of engine encapsulations for improving fuel consumption and reducing CO₂ emissions in a timely and robust manner, aiding the development of low-carbon transport technologies.

Keywords: ATCT/WLTC driving cycle, buoyancy-driven heat transfer, CAE method, heat retention, underhood modeling, vehicle thermal soak

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: James Cairns, Marco Vezza, Richard Green, Donald MacVicar

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Significant legislative changes are set to revolutionise the commercial shipping industry. Upcoming emissions restrictions will force operators to look at technologies that can improve the efficiency of their vessels -reducing fuel consumption and emissions. A device which may help in this challenge is the Ship Wind-Assisted Propulsion system (SWAP), an actively controlled aerofoil mounted vertically on the deck of a ship. The device functions in a similar manner to a sail on a yacht, whereby the aerodynamic forces generated by the sail reach an equilibrium with the hydrodynamic forces on the hull and a forward velocity results. Numerical and experimental testing of the SWAP device is presented in this study. Circulation control takes the form of a co-flow jet aerofoil, utilising both blowing from the leading edge and suction from the trailing edge. A jet at the leading edge uses the Coanda effect to energise the boundary layer in order to delay flow separation and create high lift with low drag. The SWAP concept has been originated by the research and development team at SMAR Azure Ltd. The device will be retrofitted to existing ships so that a component of the aerodynamic forces acts forward and partially reduces the reliance on existing propulsion systems. Wind tunnel tests have been carried out at the de Havilland wind tunnel at the University of Glasgow on a 1:20 scale model of this system. The tests aim to understand the airflow characteristics around the aerofoil and investigate the approximate lift and drag coefficients that an early iteration of the SWAP device may produce. The data exhibits clear trends of increasing lift as injection momentum increases, with critical flow attachment points being identified at specific combinations of jet momentum coefficient, Cµ, and angle of attack, AOA. Various combinations of flow conditions were tested, with the jet momentum coefficient ranging from 0 to 0.7 and the AOA ranging from 0° to 35°. The Reynolds number across the tested conditions ranged from 80,000 to 240,000. Comparisons between 2D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and the experimental data are presented for multiple Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models in the form of normalised surface pressure comparisons. These show good agreement for most of the tested cases. However, certain simulation conditions exhibited a well-documented shortcoming of RANS-based turbulence models for circulation control flows and over-predicted surface pressures and lift coefficient for fully attached flow cases. Work must be continued in finding an all-encompassing modelling approach which predicts surface pressures well for all combinations of jet injection momentum and AOA.

Keywords: CFD, circulation control, Coanda, turbo wing sail, wind tunnel

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Sunil Chandra, Himanshu Rawat, Vikas Gusain, Triparna Barman

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Forest fires are a recurrent phenomenon in the Himalayan region owing to the presence of vulnerable forest types, topographical gradients, climatic weather conditions, and anthropogenic pressure. The present study focuses on the identification of forest fire-affected areas in a small part of the West Himalayan region using a differential normalized burnt ratio method and spectral unmixing methods. The study area has a rugged terrain with the presence of sub-tropical pine forest, montane temperate forest, and sub-alpine forest and scrub. The major reason for fires in this region is anthropogenic in nature, with the practice of human-induced fires for getting fresh leaves, scaring wild animals to protect agricultural crops, grazing practices within reserved forests, and igniting fires for cooking and other reasons. The fires caused by the above reasons affect a large area on the ground, necessitating its precise estimation for further management and policy making. In the present study, two approaches have been used for carrying out a burnt area analysis. The first approach followed for burnt area analysis uses a differenced normalized burnt ratio (dNBR) index approach that uses the burnt ratio values generated using the Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR) band and Near Infrared (NIR) bands of the Sentinel-2 image. The results of the dNBR have been compared with the outputs of the spectral mixing methods. It has been found that the dNBR is able to create good results in fire-affected areas having homogenous forest stratum and with slope degree <5 degrees. However, in a rugged terrain where the landscape is largely influenced by the topographical variations, vegetation types, tree density, the results may be largely influenced by the effects of topography, complexity in tree composition, fuel load composition, and soil moisture. Hence, such variations in the factors influencing burnt area assessment may not be effectively carried out using a dNBR approach which is commonly followed for burnt area assessment over a large area. Hence, another approach that has been attempted in the present study utilizes a spectral mixing method where the individual pixel is tested before assigning an information class to it. The method uses a neural network approach utilizing Sentinel-2 bands. The training and testing data are generated from the Sentinel-2 data and the national field inventory, which is further used for generating outputs using ML tools. The analysis of the results indicates that the fire-affected regions and their severity can be better estimated using spectral unmixing methods, which have the capability to resolve the noise in the data and can classify the individual pixel to the precise burnt/unburnt class.

Keywords: categorical data, log linear modeling, neural network, shifting cultivation

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Vladimir Berezin, Aizhan Turmagambetova, Andrey Bogoyavlenskiy, Pavel Alexyuk, Madina Alexyuk, Irina Zaitceva, Nadezhda Sokolova

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Introduction: Influenza viruses could infect approximately 5% to 10% of the global human population annually, resulting in serious social and economic damage. Vaccination and etiotropic antiviral drugs are used for the prevention and treatment of influenza. Vaccination is important; however, antiviral drugs represent the second line of defense against new emerging influenza virus strains for which vaccines may be unsuccessful. However, the significant drawback of commercial synthetic anti-flu drugs is the appearance of drug-resistant influenza virus strains. Therefore, the search and development of new anti-flu drugs efficient against drug-resistant strains is an important medical problem for today. The aim of this work was a study of four phenolic acids of plant origin (Gallic, Syringic, Vanillic, and Protocatechuic acids) as a possible tool for treatment against influenza virus. Methods: Phenolic acids; gallic, syringic, vanillic, and protocatechuic have been prepared by extraction from plant tissues and purified using high-performance liquid chromatography fractionation. Avian influenza virus, strain A/Tern/South Africa/1/1961 (H5N3) and human epidemic influenza virus, strain A/Almaty/8/98 (H3N2) resistant to commercial anti-flu drugs (Rimantadine, Oseltamivir) were used for testing antiviral activity. Viruses were grown in the allantoic cavity of 10 days old chicken embryos. The chemotherapeutic index (CTI), determined as the ratio of an average toxic concentration of the tested compound (TC₅₀) to the average effective virus-inhibition concentration (EC₅₀), has been used as a criteria of specific antiviral action. Results: The results of study have shown that the structure of phenolic acids significantly affected their ability to suppress the reproduction of tested influenza virus strains. The highest antiviral activity among tested phenolic acids was detected for gallic acid, which contains three hydroxyl groups in the molecule at C3, C4, and C5 positions. Antiviral activity of gallic acid against A/H5N3 and A/H3N2 influenza virus strains was higher than antiviral activity of Oseltamivir and Rimantadine. gallic acid inhibited almost 100% of the infection activity of both tested viruses. Protocatechuic acid, which possesses 2 hydroxyl groups (C3 and C4) have shown weaker antiviral activity in comparison with gallic acid and inhibited less than 10% of virus infection activity. Syringic acid, which contains two hydroxyl groups (C3 and C5), was able to suppress up to 12% of infection activity. Substitution of two hydroxyl groups by methoxy groups resulted in the complete loss of antiviral activity. Vanillic acid, which is different from protocatechuic acid by replacing of C3 hydroxyl group to methoxy group, was able to suppress about 30% of infection activity of tested influenza viruses. Conclusion: For pronounced antiviral activity, the molecular of phenolic acid must have at least two hydroxyl groups. Replacement of hydroxyl groups to methoxy group leads to a reduction of antiviral properties. Gallic acid demonstrated high antiviral activity against influenza viruses, including Rimantadine and Oseltamivir resistant strains, and could be used as a potential candidate for the development of antiviral drug against influenza virus.

Keywords: antiviral activity, influenza virus, drug resistance, phenolic acids

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Claire Limoge Schraen, Philippe Gueguen, Cedric Giry, Cedric Desprez, Frédéric Ragueneau

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Mediterranean area is characterized by numerous monumental or vernacular masonry structures illustrating old ways of build and live. Those precious buildings are often poorly documented, present complex shapes and loadings, and are protected by the States, leading to legal constraints. This area also presents a moderate to high seismic activity. Even moderate earthquakes can be magnified by local site effects and cause collapse or significant damage. Moreover the structural resistance of masonry buildings, especially when less famous or located in rural zones has been generally lowered by many factors: poor maintenance, unsuitable restoration, ambient pollution, previous earthquakes. Recent earthquakes prove that any damage to these architectural witnesses to our past is irreversible, leading to the necessity of acting preventively. This means providing preventive assessments for hundreds of structures with no or few documents. In this context we want to propose a general method, based on hierarchized numerical models, to provide preliminary structural diagnoses at a regional scale, indicating whether more precise investigations and models are necessary for each building. To this aim, we adapt different tools, being developed such as photogrammetry or to be created such as a preprocessor starting from pictures to build meshes for a FEM software, in order to allow dynamic studies of the buildings of the panel. We made an inventory of 198 baroque chapels and churches situated in the French Alps. Then their structural characteristics have been determined thanks field surveys and the MicMac photogrammetric software. Using structural criteria, we determined eight types of churches and seven types for chapels. We studied their dynamical behavior thanks to CAST3M, using EC8 spectrum and accelerogramms of the studied zone. This allowed us quantifying the effect of the needed simplifications in the most sensitive zones and choosing the most effective ones. We also proposed threshold criteria based on the observed damages visible in the in situ surveys, old pictures and Italian code. They are relevant in linear models. To validate the structural types, we made a vibratory measures campaign using vibratory ambient noise and velocimeters. It also allowed us validating this method on old masonry and identifying the modal characteristics of 20 churches. Then we proceeded to a dynamic identification between numerical and experimental modes. So we updated the linear models thanks to material and geometrical parameters, often unknown because of the complexity of the structures and materials. The numerically optimized values have been verified thanks to the measures we made on the masonry components in situ and in laboratory. We are now working on non-linear models redistributing the strains. So we validate the damage threshold criteria which we use to compute the vulnerability curves of each defined structural type. Our actual results show a good correlation between experimental and numerical data, validating the final modeling simplifications and the global method. We now plan to use non-linear analysis in the critical zones in order to test reinforcement solutions.

Keywords: heritage structures, masonry numerical modeling, seismic vulnerability assessment, vibratory measure

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Authors: Nynne Nørup, Julie Helles Eriksen, Rikke M. Moalem, Else Skjold

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Despite a growing focus on the high environmental impact of textiles, textile waste is only recently considered as part of the waste field. Consequently, there is a general lack of knowledge and data within this field. Particularly the lack of a common perception of textiles generates several problems e.g., to recognize the full material potential the fraction contains, which is cruel if the textile must enter the circular economy. This study aims to qualify a method to make the resources in textile waste visible in a way that makes it possible to move them as high up in the waste hierarchy as possible. Textiles are complex and cover many different types of products, fibers and combinations of fibers and production methods. In garments alone, there is a great variety, even when narrowing it to only undergarments. However, textile waste is often reduced to one fraction, assessed solely by quantity, and compared to quantities of other waste fractions. Disregarding the complexity and reducing textiles to a single fraction that covers everything made of textiles increase the risk of neglecting the value of the materials, both with regards to their properties and economical. Instead of trying to fit textile waste into the current primarily linear waste system where volume is a key part of the business models, this study focused on integrating textile waste as a resource in the design and production phase. The study combined interdisciplinary methods for determining replacement rates used in Life Cycle Assessments and Mass Flow Analysis methods with the designer’s toolbox to hereby activate the properties of textile waste in a way that can unleash its potential optimally. It was hypothesized that by activating Denmark's tradition for design and high level of craftsmanship, it is possible to find solutions that can be used today and create circular resource models that reduce the use of virgin fibers. Through waste samples, case studies, and testing of various design approaches, this study explored how to functionalize the method so that the product after the end-use is kept as a material and only then processed at fiber level to obtain the best environmental utilization. The study showed that the designers' ability to decode the properties of the materials and understanding of craftsmanship were decisive for how well the materials could be utilized today. The later in the life cycle the textiles appeared as waste, the more demanding the description of the materials to be sufficient, especially if to achieve the best possible use of the resources and thus a higher replacement rate. In addition, it also required adaptation in relation to the current production because the materials often varied more. The study found good indications that part of the solution is to use geodata i.e., where in the life cycle the materials were discarded. An important conclusion is that a fully developed method can help support better utilization of textile resources. However, it stills requires a better understanding of materials by the designers, as well as structural changes in business and society.

Keywords: circular economy, development of sustainable processes, environmental impacts, environmental management of textiles, environmental sustainability through textile recycling, interdisciplinary method development, resource optimization, recycled textile materials and the evaluation of recycling, sustainability and recycling opportunities in the textile and apparel sector

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Authors: Merve Begum Terzi, Orhan Arikan, Adnan Abaci, Mustafa Candemir

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Acute myocardial infarction is a major cause of death in the world. Therefore, its fast and reliable diagnosis is a major clinical need. ECG is the most important diagnostic methodology which is used to make decisions about the management of the cardiovascular diseases. In patients with acute myocardial ischemia, temporary chest pains together with changes in ST segment and T wave of ECG occur shortly before the start of myocardial infarction. In this study, a technique which detects changes in ST/T sections of ECG is developed for the early diagnosis of acute myocardial ischemia. For this purpose, a database of real ECG recordings that contains a set of records from 75 patients presenting symptoms of chest pain who underwent elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is constituted. 12-lead ECG’s of the patients were recorded before and during the PCI procedure. Two ECG epochs, which are the pre-inflation ECG which is acquired before any catheter insertion and the occlusion ECG which is acquired during balloon inflation, are analyzed for each patient. By using pre-inflation and occlusion recordings, ECG features that are critical in the detection of acute myocardial ischemia are identified and the most discriminative features for the detection of acute myocardial ischemia are extracted. A classification technique based on support vector machine (SVM) approach operating with linear and radial basis function (RBF) kernels to detect ischemic events by using ST-T derived joint features from non-ischemic and ischemic states of the patients is developed. The dataset is randomly divided into training and testing sets and the training set is used to optimize SVM hyperparameters by using grid-search method and 10fold cross-validation. SVMs are designed specifically for each patient by tuning the kernel parameters in order to obtain the optimal classification performance results. As a result of implementing the developed classification technique to real ECG recordings, it is shown that the proposed technique provides highly reliable detections of the anomalies in ECG signals. Furthermore, to develop a detection technique that can be used in the absence of ECG recording obtained during healthy stage, the detection of acute myocardial ischemia based on ECG recordings of the patients obtained during ischemia is also investigated. For this purpose, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to represent the joint pdf of the most discriminating ECG features of myocardial ischemia. Then, a Neyman-Pearson type of approach is developed to provide detection of outliers that would correspond to acute myocardial ischemia. Neyman – Pearson decision strategy is used by computing the average log likelihood values of ECG segments and comparing them with a range of different threshold values. For different discrimination threshold values and number of ECG segments, probability of detection and probability of false alarm values are computed, and the corresponding ROC curves are obtained. The results indicate that increasing number of ECG segments provide higher performance for GMM based classification. Moreover, the comparison between the performances of SVM and GMM based classification showed that SVM provides higher classification performance results over ECG recordings of considerable number of patients.

Keywords: ECG classification, Gaussian mixture model, Neyman–Pearson approach, support vector machine

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Authors: Agnes Simone

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A 52-year-old male with unknown psychiatric and medical history was brought to the Psychiatric Emergency Room by ambulance directly from jail. He had been detained for three weeks for possession of a firearm while intoxicated. On initial evaluation, the patient was unable to provide a reliable history. He presented with odd jerking movements of his extremities and catatonic features, including mutism and stupor. His vital signs were stable. Patient was transferred to the medical emergency department for work-up of altered mental status. Due to suspicion for opioid overdose, the patient was given naloxone (Narcan) with no improvement. Laboratory work-up included complete blood count, comprehensive metabolic panel, thyroid stimulating hormone, vitamin B12, folate, magnesium, rapid plasma reagin, HIV, blood alcohol level, aspirin, and Tylenol blood levels, urine drug screen, and urinalysis, which were all negative. CT head and chest X-Ray were also negative. With this negative work-up, the medical team concluded there was no organic etiology and requested inpatient psychiatric admission. Upon re-evaluation by psychiatry, it was evident that the patient continued to have an altered mental status. Of note, the medical team did not include substance withdrawal in the differential diagnosis due to stable vital signs and a negative urine drug screen. The psychiatry team decided to check California's prescription drug monitoring program (CURES) and discovered that the patient was prescribed benzodiazepine alprazolam (Xanax) 2mg BID, a sedative-hypnotic, and hydrocodone/acetaminophen 10mg/325mg (Norco) QID, an opioid. After a thorough chart review, his daughter's contact information was found, and she confirmed his benzodiazepine and opioid use, with recent escalation and misuse. It was determined that the patient was experiencing alprazolam withdrawal, given this collateral information, his current symptoms, negative urine drug screen, and recent abrupt discontinuation of medications while incarcerated. After admission to the medical unit and two doses of alprazolam 2mg, the patient's mental status, alertness, and orientation improved, but he had no memory of the events that led to his hospitalization. He was discharged with a limited supply of alprazolam and a close follow-up to arrange a taper. Accompanying this case report, a qualitative review of presentations with alprazolam withdrawal was completed. This case and the review highlights: (1) Alprazolam withdrawal can occur at low doses and within just one week of use. (2) Alprazolam withdrawal can present without any vital sign instability. (3) Alprazolam withdrawal does not respond to short-acting benzodiazepines but does respond to certain long-acting benzodiazepines due to its unique chemical structure. (4) Alprazolam withdrawal is distinct from and more severe than other benzodiazepine withdrawals. This case highlights (1) the importance of physician utilization of drug-monitoring programs. This case, in particular, relied on California's drug monitoring program. (2) The importance of obtaining collateral information, especially in cases in which the patient is unable to provide a reliable history. (3) The importance of including substance intoxication and withdrawal in the differential diagnosis even when there is a negative urine drug screen. Toxidrome of withdrawal can be delayed. (4) The importance of discussing addiction and withdrawal risks of medications with patients.

Keywords: addiction risk of benzodiazepines, alprazolam withdrawal, altered mental status, benzodiazepines, drug monitoring programs, sedative-hypnotics, substance use disorder

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Authors: Brian Bacia, Esther Githaiga, Teresia Kabucho, Paul Moses Ndegwa, Lucy Gichohi

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Purpose: The aim of the study is to ensure an appropriate mix of evidence-based prevention strategies geared towards the reduction of new HIV infections and the incidence of Sexually transmitted Illnesses Background: In Nakuru County, more than 90% of all HIV-infected patients are adults and on a single-dose medication-one pill that contains a combination of several different HIV drugs. Nakuru town has been identified as the hardest hit by HIV/Aids in the County according to the latest statistics from the County Aids and STI group, with a prevalence rate of 5.7 percent attributed to the high population and an active urban center. Method: 2 key studies were carried out to provide evidence for the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) when used optimally on preventing sexual transmission of HIV. Discussions based on an examination, assessments of successes in planning, program implementation, and ultimate impact of prevention and treatment were undertaken involving health managers, health workers, community health workers, and people living with HIV/AIDS between February -August 2021. Questionnaires were carried out by a trained duo on ethical procedures at 15 HIV treatment clinics targeting patients on ARVs and caregivers on ARV prevention and treatment of pediatric HIV infection. Findings: Levels of AIDS awareness are extremely high. Advances in HIV treatment have led to an enhanced understanding of the virus, improved care of patients, and control of the spread of drug-resistant HIV. There has been a tremendous increase in the number of people living with HIV having access to life-long antiretroviral drugs (ARV), mostly on generic medicines. Healthcare facilities providing treatment are stressed challenging the administration of the drugs, which require a clinical setting. Women find it difficult to take a daily pill which reduces the effectiveness of the medicine. ART adherence can be strengthened largely through the use of innovative digital technology. The case management approach is useful in resource-limited settings. The county has made tremendous progress in mother-to-child transmission reduction through enhanced early antenatal care (ANC) attendance and mapping of pregnant women Recommendations: Treatment reduces the risk of transmission to the child during pregnancy, labor, and delivery. Promote research of medicines through patients and community engagement. Reduce the risk of transmission through breastfeeding. Enhance testing strategies and strengthen health systems for sustainable HIV service delivery. Need exists for improved antenatal care and delivery by skilled birth attendants. Develop a comprehensive maternal reproductive health policy covering equitability, efficient and effective delivery of services. Put in place referral systems.

Keywords: evidence-based prevention strategies, service delivery, human management, integrated approach

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Authors: Ayesha Mushtaq

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Asthma is a pulmonary disease in which blockade of the airway takes place due to inflammation as a response to certain allergens. Breathing troubles, cough, and dyspnea are one of the few symptoms. Several studies have indicated a significant effect on asthma due to changes in dietary routines. Certain food items, such as oily foods and other materials, are known to cause an increase in the symptoms of asthma. Low dietary intake of fruits and vegetables may be important in relation to asthma prevalence. The objective of this study is to assess and compare the nutritional status of asthmatic and non-asthmatic patients. The significance of this study lies in the factor that it will help nutritionists to arrange a feasible dietary routine for asthmatic patients. This research was conducted at the Pulmonology Department of the Pakistan Institute of Medical Science Islamabad. About thirty hundred thirty-four million people are affected by asthma worldwide. Pakistan is on the verge of being an uplifted urban population and asthma cases are increasingly high these days. Several studies suggest an increase in the Asthmatic patient population due to improper diet. Other studies conducted at different institutions have conducted research on similar topics. These studies have suggested that there is a substantial alteration in the nutritional status of asthmatic and non-Asthmatic patients. This is a cross-sectional study aimed at assessing the nutritious standing of Asthmatic and non-asthmatic patients. This research took place at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS), Islamabad, Pakistan. The research included asthmatic and non-asthmatic patients coming to the pulmonology department clinic at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS). These patients were aged between 20-60 years. A questionnaire was developed for these patients to estimate their dietary plans in these patients. The methodology included four sections. The first section was the Socio-Demographic profile, which included age, gender, monthly income and occupation. The next section was anthropometric measurements which included the weight, height and body mass index (BMI) of the individual. The next section, section three, was about the biochemical attributes, such as for biochemical profiling, pulmonary function testing (PFT) was performed. In the next section, Dietary habits, which were assessed by using a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) through food habits and consumption pattern, was assessed. The next section life style data, in which the person's level of physical activity, sleep and smoking habits were assessed. The next section was statistical analysis. All the data obtained from the study were statistically analyzed and assessed. Most of the asthma Patients were females, with weight more than normal or even obese. Body Mass Index (BMI) was higher in asthma Patients than those in non-Asthmatic ones. When the nutritional Values were assessed, we came to know that these patients were low on certain nutrients and their diet included more junk and oily food than healthy vegetables and fruits. Beverages intake was also included in the same assessment. It is evident from this study that nutritional status has a contributory effect on asthma. So, patients on the verge of developing asthma or those who have developed asthma should focus on their diet, maintain good eating habits and take healthy diets, including fruits and vegetables rather than oily foods. Proper sleep may also contribute to the control of asthma.

Keywords: NUTRI, BMI, asthma, food

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Authors: Andres Nieto-Leal, Victor N. Kaliakin, Tania P. Molina

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The nature of most engineering materials is quite complex. It is, therefore, difficult to devise a general mathematical model that will cover all possible ranges and types of excitation and behavior of a given material. As a result, the development of mathematical models is based upon simplifying assumptions regarding material behavior. Such simplifications result in some material idealization; for example, one of the simplest material idealization is to assume that the material behavior obeys the elasticity. However, soils are nonhomogeneous, anisotropic, path-dependent materials that exhibit nonlinear stress-strain relationships, changes in volume under shear, dilatancy, as well as time-, rate- and temperature-dependent behavior. Over the years, many constitutive models, possessing different levels of sophistication, have been developed to simulate the behavior geomaterials, particularly cohesive soils. Early in the development of constitutive models, it became evident that elastic or standard elastoplastic formulations, employing purely isotropic hardening and predicated in the existence of a yield surface surrounding a purely elastic domain, were incapable of realistically simulating the behavior of geomaterials. Accordingly, more sophisticated constitutive models have been developed; for example, the bounding surface elastoplasticity. The essence of the bounding surface concept is the hypothesis that plastic deformations can occur for stress states either within or on the bounding surface. Thus, unlike classical yield surface elastoplasticity, the plastic states are not restricted only to those lying on a surface. Elastoplastic bounding surface models have been improved; however, there is still need to improve their capabilities in simulating the response of anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils, especially the response in extension tests. Thus, in this work an improved constitutive model that can more accurately predict diverse stress-strain phenomena exhibited by cohesive soils was developed. Particularly, an improved rotational hardening rule that better simulate the response of cohesive soils in extension. The generalized definition of the bounding surface model provides a convenient and elegant framework for unifying various previous versions of the model for anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils. The Generalized Bounding Surface Model for cohesive soils is a fully three-dimensional, time-dependent model that accounts for both inherent and stress induced anisotropy employing a non-associative flow rule. The model numerical implementation in a computer code followed an adaptive multistep integration scheme in conjunction with local iteration and radial return. The one-step trapezoidal rule was used to get the stiffness matrix that defines the relationship between the stress increment and the strain increment. After testing the model in simulating the response of cohesive soils through extensive comparisons of model simulations to experimental data, it has been shown to give quite good simulations. The new model successfully simulates the response of different cohesive soils; for example, Cardiff Kaolin, Spestone Kaolin, and Lower Cromer Till. The simulated undrained stress paths, stress-strain response, and excess pore pressures are in very good agreement with the experimental values, especially in extension.

Keywords: bounding surface elastoplasticity, cohesive soils, constitutive model, modeling of geomaterials

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Jane Oliver, Angeline Ferdinand, Jessica Kaufman, Peta Edler, Nicole Allard, Margie Danchin, Katherine B. Gibney

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Background: The cohealth Health Concierge program operated in Melbourne, Australia, from July 2020 to 30 June 2022. The program was designed to provide place-based peer-to-peer COVID-19 education and support to culturally and linguistically diverse residents of high-rise public housing estates. During this time, the COVID-19 public health response changed frequently. We conducted a mixed-methods evaluation to determine the program’s impact on residents’ trust, engagement and communication with health services and public health activities. Methods: The RE-AIM model was used to assess program reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation and maintenance and the evaluation was informed by a Project Reference Group including end-users. Data were collected between March and May 2022 in four estates where the program operated. We surveyed 301 residents, conducted qualitative interviews with 32 stakeholders and analyzed data from 20,901 forms reporting interactions between Health Concierges and residents collected from August 2021 to May 2022. These forms outlined the support provided by Health Concierges during each interaction. Results: Overall, the program was effective in guiding residents to testing and vaccination services and facilitating COVID-19 safe practices. Nearly two-thirds (191; 63.5%) of the 301 surveyed participants reported speaking with a Health Concierge in the previous six months, and some described having meaningful conversations with them. Despite this, many of the interactions residents described having with Health Concierges were superficial. When considering surveyed participants’ responses to the adapted Public Health Disaster Trust Scale, the mean score across all estates was 2.3 (or slightly more than ‘somewhat confident’) in public health authorities’ ability to respond to a localized infectious disease outbreak. While the program was valued during the rapidly changing public health response, many felt it had failed to evolve in the ‘living with COVID’ phase. Some residents expressed frustration with Health Concierges’ having perceived inactive, passive roles - although other residents felt Health Concierges were helpful and appreciated them. A perception that the true impact of Health Concierges’ work was underrecognized was widely voiced by health staff. All 20,901 Interaction Forms identified COVID-19-related supports provided to residents; almost all included provision of facemasks and/or hand sanitiser and 78% identified additional supports that were also provided, most frequently provision of other health information. Conclusions: The program disseminated up-to-date information to a diverse population within a rapidly changing public health setting. Health Concierges were able promote COVID-19-safe behaviours, including vaccine uptake, and link residents with support services. We recommend the program be revised and continued. New programs that draw on the Health Concierge model may be valuable in supporting future pandemic responses and should be considered in preparedness planning.

Keywords: community health, COVID-19 pandemic, infectious diseases, public health, community health workers

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