Search results for: multi-hazard risk mapping

Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi

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The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.

Keywords: credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment

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Authors: Mustafa Dogru, Ruveyda Komurlu

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Companies and professionals in the construction sector face various risks in every project depending on the characteristics, size, complexity, the location of the projects and the techniques used. Some risks’ effects may increase as the project progresses whereas new risks may emerge. Because of the ever-changing nature of the risks, risk management is a cyclical process that needs to be repeated throughout the project. Since the risks threaten the success of the project, risk management is an important part of the entire project management process. The aims of this study are to emphasize the importance of risk management in construction projects, summarize the risk identification process, and introduce a number of methods for preventing risks such as alternative design, checklists, prototyping and test-analysis-correction technique etc. Following the literature review conducted to list the techniques for preventing risks, case studies has been performed to compare and evaluate the success of the techniques in a number of completed projects with the same typology, performed domestic and international. Findings of the study suggest that controlling and minimizing the level of the risks in construction projects, taking optimal precautions for different risks, and mitigating or eliminating the effects of risks are important in order to prevent additional costs for the project. Additionally, focusing on the risks that have highest impact is the most rational way to minimize the effects of the risks on projects.

Keywords: construction projects, construction management, project management, risk management

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Authors: Lesa A. Thompson, Yoshinori Ikenaka, Victor Wepener, Mayumi Ishizuka

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One method for controlling malaria in endemic regions is the killing of vector mosquitoes using pesticides such as DDT in indoor residual spraying (IRS). This study was carried out to investigate the presence of and human health risk due to DDT and its metabolites (collectively, DDTs) contaminating human food sources in areas where DDT is used for IRS. Free-range chicken products (meat and eggs) were collected from homesteads in KwaZulu-Natal Province in the northeast of South Africa, and fish meat samples from Maputo Bay in neighbouring Mozambique. Samples were analysed for DDTs (o,p’-DDT, p,p’-DDT, o,p’-DDD, p,p’-DDD, o,p’-DDE and p,p’-DDE) using a gas chromatograph with electron capture detector (GC-ECD). DDTs were detected in all food types, with the predominant congener being p,p’-DDE. The presence of p,p’-DDT confirmed recent release of DDT into the environment. By using concentration levels detected in foods and national consumption levels, the risk to human health through consumption of such food products was calculated. In order of risk level, these were: chicken eggs > chicken meat > fish meat. Human risk (carcinogenic) values greater than one suggest there is an increased health risk through consumption of these foods.

Keywords: DDT, food contamination, human health risk, Mozambique, South Africa

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Authors: P. Serpytis, K. Azukaitis, U. Gargalskaite, R. Navickas, J. Badariene, V. Dzenkeviciute

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Purpose: Total longitudinal displacement (tLoD) of the common carotid artery (CCA) wall is a novel ultrasound marker of vascular function that can be evaluated using modified speckle tracking techniques. Decreased CCA tLoD has already been shown to be associated with diabetes and was shown to predict one year cardiovascular outcome in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) . The aim of our study was to evaluate if CCA tLoD differ between patients with moderate or high cardiovascular (CV) risk and patients after recent acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods: 49 patients (54±6 years) with moderate or high CV risk and 42 patients (58±7 years) after recent AMI were included. All patients were non-diabetic. CCA tLoD was evaluated using GE EchoPAC speckle tracking software and expressed as mean of both sides. Data on systolic blood pressure, total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) level, smoking status and family history of early CV events was evaluated and assessed for association with CCA tLoD. Results: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after MI (0.265±0.128 mm vs. 0.237±0.103 mm, p>0.05). Lower tLoD was associated with lower HDL cholesterol levels (r=0.211, p=0.04) and male sex (0.228±0.1 vs. 0.297±0.134, p=0.01). Conclusions: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after AMI. However, lower CCA tLoD was significantly associated with low HDL cholesterol levels and male sex.

Keywords: total longitudinal displacement, carotid artery, cardiovascular risk, acute myocardial infarction

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Authors: Bouba Oumarou Aboubakar, HongXia Li, Sardar Annes Farooq

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The Belt and Road Initiative’s success strongly depends on the safety of all the million workers on construction projects sites. As the new BRI is directed toward Africa and meets a completely different culture from the Chinese project managers, maintaining low risk for workers risks shall be closely related to cultural sharing and mutual understanding. This is why this work introduces a cultural-wise safety management framework for Chinese Construction projects in Africa. The theoretical contribution of this paper is an improved risk assessment framework that integrates language, culture and difficulty of controlling risk factors into one approach. Practically, this study provides not only a useful tool for project safety management practitioners but the full understanding of all risks that may arise in the BRI projects in Africa.

Keywords: cultural-wise, safety culture, risk assessment, Chinese construction, BRI projects, Africa

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Authors: Deniz A. Apostol, Denyl A. Apostol, Oliver T. Macapinlac, George S. Katigbak

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Ang lupa ay buhay at ang buhay ay lupa (land is life and life is land). Based on the 2015 census, the Indigenous Peoples (IPs) population in the Philippines is estimated to be 11.3-20.2 million. They hail from various regions, possess distinct cultures, but encounter shared struggles in territorial disputes. Itogon, the largest Benguet municipality, is home to the Ibaloi, Kankanaey, and other Igorot tribes. Despite having three (3) Ancestral Domains (ADs), Itogon is predominantly labeled as timberland or forest. These overlapping land classifications highlight the presence of inconsistencies in national laws and jurisdictions. This study aims to analyze surveying procedures used by the Igorots, NCIP, and DENR in mapping the Itogon AD Boundaries, show land boundary delineation conflicts, propose surveying guidelines, and recommend 3D Participatory Mapping as geomatics solution for updated AD reference maps. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA), Comparative Legal Analysis (CLA), and Map Overlay Analysis (MOA) were utilized to examine the interviews, compare land policies and surveying procedures, and identify differences and overlaps in conflicting land boundaries. In the IPA, master themes identified were AD Definition (rights, responsibilities, restrictions), AD Overlaps (land classifications, political boundaries, ancestral domains, land laws/policies), and Other Conflicts (with other agencies, misinterpretations, suggestions), as considerations for mapping ADs. CLA focused on conflicting surveying procedures: AD Definitions, Surveying Equipment, Surveying Methods, Map Projections, Order of Accuracy, Monuments, Survey Parties, Pre-survey, Survey Proper, and Post-survey procedures. MOA emphasized the land area percentage of conflicting areas, showcasing the impact of misaligned surveying procedures. The findings are summarized through a Land Administration Domain Model (LADM) Conflict, for AD versus AD and Political Boundaries. The products of this study are identification of land conflict factors, survey guidelines recommendations, and contested land area computations. These can serve as references for revising survey manuals, updating AD Sustainable Development and Protection Plans, and making amendments to laws.

Keywords: ancestral domain, gis, indigenous people, land policies, participatory mapping, surveying, survey procedures

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Authors: Joanne F. Hayek

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This study explores the use of gamification to promote citizen e-participation in urban planning. The research departs from a case study: the ‘Shape Your City’ web app designed and programmed by the author and presented as part of the 2021 Dubai Design Week to engage citizens in the co-creation of the future of their city through a gamified experience. The paper documents the design and development methodology of the web app and concludes with the findings of its pilot release. The case study explores the use of mobile interactive mapping, real-time data visualization, augmented reality, and machine learning as tools to enable co-planning. The paper also details the user interface design strategies employed to integrate complex cross-sector e-planning systems and make them accessible to citizens.

Keywords: gamification, co-planning, citizen e-participation, mobile interactive mapping, real-time data visualization

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Authors: Nabil Mekaoui, Nacer Jabour, Abdelhamid Allaoui, Abderahim Oulidi

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The reliability of several insurance indexes of the seismic risk is evaluated and compared for an efficient seismic risk coverage of buildings in Morocco, thus, reducing the basic risk. A large database of earthquake ground motions is established from recent seismic events in Morocco and synthetic ground motions compatible with the design spectrum in order to conduct nonlinear time history analyses on three building models representative of the building stock in Morocco. The uninhabitability index is evaluated based on the simulated damage index, then correlated with preselected insurance indexes. Interestingly, the commonly used peak ground acceleration index showed poor correlation when compared with other indexes, such as spectral accelerations at low periods. Recommendations on the choice of suitable insurance indexes are formulated for efficient seismic risk coverage in Morocco.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, damage, earthquake, reinsurance, seismic hazard, trigger index, vulnerability

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma

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Authors: H. Majour, L. Djabri

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Many methods in the groundwater vulnerability have been developed in the world (methods like PRAST, DRIST, APRON/ARAA, PRASTCHIM, GOD). In this study, our choice dealt with two recent complementary methods using category mapping of index with weighting criteria (Point County Systems Model MSCP) namely the standard DRASTIC method and SI (Susceptibility Index). At present, these two methods are the most used for the mapping of the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater. Two classes of groundwater vulnerability in the Biskra sandy aquifer were identified by the DRASTIC method (average and high) and the SI method (very high and high). Integrated analysis has revealed that the high class is predominant for the DRASTIC method whereas for that of SI the preponderance is for the very high class. Furthermore, we notice that the method SI estimates better the vulnerability for the pollution in nitrates, with a rate of 85 % between the concentrations in nitrates of groundwater and the various established classes of vulnerability, against 75 % for the DRASTIC method. By including the land use parameter, the SI method produced more realistic results.

Keywords: DRASTIC, SI, GIS, Biskra sandy aquifer, Algeria

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Authors: Mani Venkatesh, Catarina Delgado, Purvishkumar Patel

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The sustainable supply chain is gaining popularity among practitioners because of increased environmental degradation and stakeholder awareness. On the other hand supply chain, risk management is very crucial for the practitioners as it potentially disrupts supply chain operations. Prediction and addressing the risk caused by social issues in the supply chain is paramount importance to the sustainable enterprise. More recently, the usage of Big data analytics for forecasting business trends has been gaining momentum among professionals. The aim of the research is to explore the application of big data, predictive analytics in successfully mitigating supply chain social risk and demonstrate how such mitigation can help in achieving sustainability (environmental, economic & social). The method involves the identification and validation of social issues in the supply chain by an expert panel and survey. Later, we used a case study to illustrate the application of big data in the successful identification and mitigation of social issues in the supply chain. Our result shows that the company can predict various social issues through big data, predictive analytics and mitigate the social risk. We also discuss the implication of this research to the body of knowledge and practice.

Keywords: big data, sustainability, supply chain social sustainability, social risk, case study

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Authors: Jamal A. Gledan, Akrm H. Algnin

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The Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite-based technology has been utilized extensively in the last few years in a wide range of Geomatics and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) applications. One of the main challenges dealing with GPS-based heights consists of converting them into Mean Sea Level (MSL) heights which is used in surveys and mapping. In this research work, differences in heights of 50 points, in northern part of Libya were carried out using both ordinary levelling (in which Geoid is the reference datum) and GPS techniques (in which Ellipsoid is the reference datum). In addition, this study has utilized the EGM2008 model to obtain the undulation values between the ellipsoidal and orthometric heights. From these values with ellipsoidal heights which can be obtained from GPS observations to compute the orthomteric heights. This research presented a suitable alternative, from an economical point of view, to substitute the expensive traditional levelling technique particularly for topographic mapping.

Keywords: geoid undulation, GPS, ordinary and geodetic levelling, orthometric height

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Authors: Azizah M. Nahari, Peter Doerner

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Phosphate (Pi) is one of the essential macronutrients in plant growth and development, and it plays a central role in metabolic processes in plants, particularly photosynthesis and respiration. Limitation of crop productivity by Pi is widespread and is likely to increase in the future. Applications of Pi fertilizers have improved soil Pi fertility and crop production; however, they have also caused environmental damage. Therefore, in order to reduce dependence on unsustainable Pi fertilizers, a better understanding of phosphate use efficiency (PUE) is required for engineering nutrient-efficient crop plants. Enhanced Pi efficiency can be achieved by improved productivity per unit Pi taken up. We aim to identify, by using association mapping, general features of the most important loci that contribute to increased PUE to allow us to delineate the physiological pathways involved in defining this trait in the model plant Arabidopsis. As PUE is in part determined by the efficiency of uptake, we designed a hydroponic system to avoid confounding effects due to differences in root system architecture leading to differences in Pi uptake. In this system, 18 parental lines and 217 lines of the MAGIC population (a Multiparent Advanced Generation Inter-Cross) grown in high and low Pi availability conditions. The results showed revealed a large variation of PUE in the parental lines, indicating that the MAGIC population was well suited to identify PUE loci and pathways. 2 of 18 parental lines had the highest PUE in low Pi while some lines responded strongly and increased PUE with increased Pi. Having examined the 217 MAGIC population, considerable variance in PUE was found. A general feature was the trend of most lines to exhibit higher PUE when grown in low Pi conditions. Association mapping is currently in progress, but initial observations indicate that a wide variety of physiological processes are involved in influencing PUE in Arabidopsis. The combination of hydroponic growth methods and genome-wide association mapping is a powerful tool to identify the physiological pathways underpinning complex quantitative traits in plants.

Keywords: hydroponic system growth, phosphate use efficiency (PUE), Genome-wide association mapping, MAGIC population

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Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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Authors: Daniel Pastor, Hyo-Sang Shin

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This paper presents a novel method to use optical flow navigation for long-term navigation. Unlike standard SLAM approaches for augmented reality, OFLAAM is designed for Micro Air Vehicles (MAV). It uses an optical flow camera pointing downwards, an IMU and a monocular camera pointing frontwards. That configuration avoids the expensive mapping and tracking of the 3D features. It only maps these features in a vocabulary list by a localization module to tackle the loss of the navigation estimation. That module, based on the well-established algorithm DBoW2, will be also used to close the loop and allow long-term navigation in confined areas. That combination of high-speed optical flow navigation with a low rate localization algorithm allows fully autonomous navigation for MAV, at the same time it reduces the overall computational load. This framework is implemented in ROS (Robot Operating System) and tested attached to a laptop. A representative scenarios is used to analyse the performance of the system.

Keywords: vision, UAV, navigation, SLAM

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Authors: Sri Yusnita Irda Sari, Deni Kurniadi Sunjaya, Ardini Saptaningsih Raksanagara

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Water is one of the fundamental basic needs for human life, particularly drinking water sources. Although water quality is getting better, fecal-contamination of water is still found around the world, especially in the slum area of mid-low income countries. Drinking water source contamination in urban slum dwellers increases the risk of water borne diseases. Low level of sanitation and poor drinking water supply known as risk factors for diarrhea, moreover bacteria-contaminated drinking water source is the main cause of diarrhea in developing countries. This study aimed to assess risk infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination in various drinking water sources in urban area by applying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA). A Cross-sectional survey was conducted in a period of August to October 2015. Water samples were taken by simple random sampling from households in Cikapundung river basin which was one of urban slum area in the center of Bandung city, Indonesia. About 379 water samples from 199 households and 15 common wells were tested. Half of the households used treated drinking water from water gallon mostly refill water gallon which was produced in drinking water refill station. Others used raw water sources which need treatment before consume as drinking water such as tap water, borehole, dug well and spring water source. Annual risk to get infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination from highest to lowest risk was dug well (1127.9 x 10-5), spring water (49.7 x 10-5), borehole (1.383 x 10-5) and tap water (1.121 x 10-5). Annual risk infection of refill drinking water was 1.577 x 10-5 which is comparable to borehole and tap water. Household water treatment and storage to make raw water sources drinkable is essential to prevent risk of water borne diseases. Strong regulation and intense monitoring of refill water gallon quality should be prioritized by the government; moreover, distribution of tap water should be more accessible and affordable especially in urban slum area.

Keywords: drinking water, quantitative microbiological risk assessment, slum, urban

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Authors: Mariam Ismail, Kazeem Rufai, Jeremiah Balogun

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A study was conducted to apply fuzzy logic to the development of a monitoring model for child pornography based on associated risk factors, which can be used by forensic experts or integrated into forensic systems for the early detection of child pornographic activities. A number of methods were adopted in the study, which includes an extensive review of related works was done in order to identify the factors that are associated with child pornography following which they were validated by an expert sex psychologist and guidance counselor, and relevant data was collected. Fuzzy membership functions were used to fuzzify the associated variables identified alongside the risk of the occurrence of child pornography based on the inference rules that were provided by the experts consulted, and the fuzzy logic expert system was simulated using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox available in the MATLAB Software Release 2016. The results of the study showed that there were 4 categories of risk factors required for assessing the risk of a suspect committing child pornography offenses. The results of the study showed that 2 and 3 triangular membership functions were used to formulate the risk factors based on the 2 and 3 number of labels assigned, respectively. The results of the study showed that 5 fuzzy logic models were formulated such that the first 4 was used to assess the impact of each category on child pornography while the last one takes the 4 outputs from the 4 fuzzy logic models as inputs required for assessing the risk of child pornography. The following conclusion was made; there were factors that were related to personal traits, social traits, history of child pornography crimes, and self-regulatory deficiency traits by the suspects required for the assessment of the risk of child pornography crimes committed by a suspect. Using the values of the identified risk factors selected for this study, the risk of child pornography can be easily assessed from their values in order to determine the likelihood of a suspect perpetuating the crime.

Keywords: fuzzy, membership functions, pornography, risk factors

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Authors: Yukinori Fuse, Masato Kawaguchi

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A quantitative risk assessment method was developed for fiber emissions from sprayed asbestos-containing materials (ACMs). In Japan, instead of being quantitative, these risk assessments have relied on the subjective judgment of skilled engineers, which may vary from one person to another. Therefore, this closed sampling method aims at avoiding any potential variability between assessments. This method was used to assess emissions from ACM sprayed in eleven buildings and the obtained results were compared with the subjective judgments of a skilled engineer. An approximate correlation tendency was found between both approaches. In spite of existing uncertainties, the closed sampling method is useful for public health protection. We firmly believe that this method may find application in the management and renovation decisions of buildings using friable and sprayed ACM.

Keywords: asbestos, renovation, risk assessment, maintenance

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Authors: Abdullah Alsayeqh

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The burden of foodborne diseases in Saudi Arabia is currently unknown. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with these diseases among women in Riyadh. A cross-sectional study was carried out from March to July, 2013 where participants’ responses indicated that they were at risk of these diseases through improper food-holding temperature (45.28%), inadequate cooking (35.47%), cross-contamination (32.23%), and food from unsafe sources (22.39%). The claimed food safety knowledge by 22.04% of participants was not evidenced by their reported behaviors (p > 0.05). This is the first study to identify the gap in food safety knowledge among women in Riyadh which needs to be addressed by the concerned authorities in the country by engaging women more effectively in food safety educational campaigns.

Keywords: foodborne diseases, risk factors, knowledge, women, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: S. Alyami, S. Mohammad

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These Risk management practices have a significant impact on construction SMEs. The effective utilisation of these practices depends on culture change in order to optimise decision making for critical activities within construction projects. Thus, successful implementation of empowerment strategies would enhance operational employees to participate in effective decision making. However, there remain many barriers to individuals and organisations within empowerment strategies that require empirical investigation before the industry can benefit from their implementation. Gaps in understanding the relationship between employee empowerment and risk management practices still exist. This research paper aims to examine the impact of the structural empowerment on risk management practices in construction SMEs. The questionnaire has been distributed to participants (162 employees) that involve projects and civil engineers within a case study from Saudi construction SMEs. Partial least squares based structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was utilised to perform analysis. The results reveal a positive relationship between empowerment and risk management practices. The study shows how structural empowerment contributes to operational employees in risk management practices through involving activities such as decision making, self-efficiency, and autonomy. The findings of this study will contribute to close the current gaps in the construction SMEs context.

Keywords: construction SMEs, culture, decision making, empowerment, risk management

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Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

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Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Yeongyu Choi, Ju H. Park, Ho-Youl Jung

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In this paper, we propose labeling based RANSAC algorithm for lane detection. Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) have been widely researched to avoid unexpected accidents. Lane detection is a necessary system to assist keeping lane and lane departure prevention. The proposed vision based lane detection method applies Canny edge detection, inverse perspective mapping (IPM), K-means algorithm, mathematical morphology operations and 8 connected-component labeling. Next, random samples are selected from each labeling region for RANSAC. The sampling method selects the points of lane with a high probability. Finally, lane parameters of straight line or curve equations are estimated. Through the simulations tested on video recorded at daytime and nighttime, we show that the proposed method has better performance than the existing RANSAC algorithm in various environments.

Keywords: Canny edge detection, k-means algorithm, RANSAC, inverse perspective mapping

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

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In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique

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Authors: P. Krachangthong, N. Limsumalee, L. Sawatdipon, A. Sasipongpreecha, S. Pisailert, J. Thongta, N. Hongkarnjanakul, C. Thipyopas

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The design and development of new UAV are detailed in this paper. The mission requirement is setup for enhancement of flight endurance of a fixed wing UAV. The goal is to achieve flight endurance more than 60 minutes. UAV must be able launched by hand and can be equipped with the Sony A6000 camera. The design of sizing and aerodynamic analysis is conducted. The XFLR5 program and wind tunnel test are used for determination and comparison of aerodynamic characteristics. Lift, drag and pitching moment characteristics are evaluated. Then Kreno-V UAV is designed and proved its better efficiency compared to the Heron UAV who is currently used for mapping mission of Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (Public Organization), Thailand. The endurance is improved by 19%. Finally, Kreno-V UAV with a wing span of 2meters, the aspect ratio of 7, and V-tail shape is constructed and successfully test.

Keywords: UAV design, fixed-wing UAV, wind tunnel test, long endurance

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Authors: Azzouzi Fadoua

Abstract:

This study focuses on the diagnosis of the dynamics of natural resources in a semi-arid mountainous weakened by natural vulnerability and anthropogenic action. This is evident in the forms of hydraulic erosion and degradation of agricultural land. The rate of this damaged land is 53%, with a strong presence of concentrated erosion; this shows that balanced and semi-balanced environments are less apparent to the Watershed, representing 47%. The results revealed the crucial role of the slopes and the density of the hydraulic networks to facilitate the transport of fine elements, at the level of the slopes with low vegetation intensity, to the lake of the dam. Something that endangers the siltation of the latter. After the study of natural and anthropogenic elements, it turned out that natural vulnerability is an integral part of the current dynamic, especially when it coincides with the overexploitation of natural resources, in this case, the exploitation of steep slopes for the cultivation of cereals and overgrazing. This causes the soil to pile up and increase the rate of runoff.

Keywords: watershed, erosion, natural vulnerability, anthropogenic

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

Abstract:

Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

Abstract:

This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: M. Sanjarani, A. Danehkar, A. Mashincheyan, A. H. Javid, S. M. R. Fatemi

Abstract:

The oil spill in marine water has direct impact on coastal resources and community. Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) map is the first step to assess the potential impact of an oil spill and minimize the damage of coastal resources. In order to create Environmental Sensitivity Maps for the Chabahar bay (Iran), information has been collected in three different layers (Shoreline Classification, Biological and Human- uses resources) by means of field observations and measurements of beach morphology, personal interviews with professionals of different areas and the collection of bibliographic information. In this paper an attempt made to prepare an ESI map for sensitivity to oil spills of Chabahar bay coast. The Chabahar bay is subjected to high threaten to oil spill because of port, dense mangrove forest,only coral spot in Oman Sea and many industrial activities. Mapping the coastal resources, shoreline and coastal structures was carried out using Satellite images and GIS technology. The coastal features classified into three major categories as: Shoreline Classification, Biological and Human uses resources. The important resources classified into mangrove, Exposed tidal flats, sandy beach, etc. The sensitivity of shore was ranked as low to high (1 = low sensitivity,10 = high sensitivity) based on geomorphology of Chabahar bay coast using NOAA standards (sensitivity to oil, ease of clean up, etc). Eight ESI types were found in the area namely; ESI 1A, 1C, 3A, 6B, 7, 8B,9A and 10D. Therefore, in the study area, 50% were defined as High sensitivity, less than 1% as Medium, and 49% as low sensitivity areas. The ESI maps are useful to the oil spill responders, coastal managers and contingency planners. The overall ESI mapping product can provide a valuable management tool not only for oil spill response but for better integrated coastal zone management.

Keywords: ESI, oil spill, GIS, Chabahar Bay, Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 349