Search results for: risk prediction model

Authors: Yousuf N. Al Khamisi, Eduardo M. Hernandez, Khurshid M. Khan

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Purpose: This paper presents a model of a Knowledge-Based (KB) using Lean Six Sigma (L6σ) principles to enhance the performance of healthcare leadership. Design/methodology/approach: Using L6σ principles to enhance healthcare leaders’ performance needs a pre-assessment of the healthcare organisation’s capabilities. The model will be developed using a rule-based approach of KB system. Thus, KB system embeds Gauging Absence of Pre-requisite (GAP) for benchmarking and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for prioritization. A comprehensive literature review will be covered for the main contents of the model with a typical output of GAP analysis and AHP. Findings: The proposed KB system benchmarks the current position of healthcare leadership with the ideal benchmark one (resulting from extensive evaluation by the KB/GAP/AHP system of international leadership concepts in healthcare environments). Research limitations/implications: Future work includes validating the implementation model in healthcare environments around the world. Originality/value: This paper presents a novel application of a hybrid KB combines of GAP and AHP methodology. It implements L6σ principles to enhance healthcare performance. This approach assists healthcare leaders’ decision making to reach performance improvement against a best practice benchmark.

Keywords: Lean Six Sigma (L6σ), Knowledge-Based System (KBS), healthcare leadership, Gauge Absence Prerequisites (GAP), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: Zhengyi Kong, Seung-Eock Kim

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Single angle connections, which are bolted to the beam web and the column flange, are studied to investigate moment-rotation behavior. Elastic–perfectly plastic material behavior is assumed. ABAQUS software is used to analyze the nonlinear behavior of a single angle connection. The same geometric and material conditions with Yanglin Gong’s test are used for verifying finite element models. Since Kishi and Chen’s Power model and Lee and Moon’s Log model are accurate only for a limited range, simpler and more accurate hyperbolic function models are proposed. The equation for calculating rotation at ultimate moment is first proposed.

Keywords: finite element method, moment and rotation, rotation at ultimate moment, single-web angle connections

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Authors: Darius Danesh, Michael J. Ryan, Alireza Abbasi

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Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible option to improve the decision-making outcomes in the organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision making, project portfolio management

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Authors: Hassan Alsada

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Tank overfill accidents are major concerns for industries handling large volumes of hydrocarbons. Buncefield, Jaipur, Puerto Rico, and West Virginia are just a few accidents with catastrophic consequences. Thus, it is very important for any industry to take the right safety measures for overfill prevention. Moreover, one of the main causative factors in the overfill accidents was inadequate risk analysis and, subsequently, inadequate design. This study aims to provide a full assessment in accordance with the Functional safety standard: “IEC 615 11 – Safety instrumented systems for the process industry” to the tank overfill scenario according to the standard’s Safety Life Cycle (SLC), which includes: the analysis phase, the implementation phase, and the operation phase. The paper discusses in depth the tank overfills Independent Protection Layers (IPLs) with systematic analysis to avoid the safety risks of under-design and the financial risk of facility overdesign. The result shows a clear and systematic assessment in compliance with the standards that can help to assist existing tank overfilling setup or a guide to support designing new storage facilities overfill protection.

Keywords: IEC 61511, PHA, LOPA, process safety, safety, health, environment, safety instrumented systems, safety instrumented function, functional safety, safety life cycle

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Authors: Rafika Bayu Kusumandari, Istyarini, Ispen Safrel

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Character education will be more meaningful if carried out since early childhood. This is because early childhood education is the foundation of the formation of character. This study intends to find a model of character education in early childhood based on Javanese culture. In keeping with the focus of the study, long-term goals to be achieved through this research is to find once described the development of a model of character education in early childhood Javanese culture based in Semarang are then applied across early childhood education institutions in Semarang City. The specific objective of the study is: Describe the character models and management education in early childhood Java-based culture in Semarang City. The benefits of this research are; Provide an overview of the model and describe the management of character education in early childhood Java-based culture in Semarang City. Referring to the objectives of the research program was designed with a "Research and Development", meaning that a program of research followed by development programs for improvement or refinement. To produce a prototype model of character education in early childhood Java-based culture in the city, taken systematic measures in the form of the action, reflection, evaluation and innovation by applying qualitative research methods, descriptive, development, experimentation, and evaluation. This study aims to gain in-depth description of the model of character education in early childhood Java-based culture in the city of Semarang. The reason for the use of the use of qualitative methods researcher's knowledge, no study results and empirical research specifically about the model of character education in early childhood Java-based culture in the city of Semarang. On the implementation of character education early childhood adapted to the characteristics of each school and the emphasis of each agency arrangements for early childhood education, culture-based Java. Javanese culture should be introduced early in order not to erode the cultural lost outside the entrance as the era of globalization. In addition, Java is promoting a culture of courtesy and manners are very appropriate for the character formation of children of early age.

Keywords: education character, Javanese culture, childhood, character

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Authors: Alexis Aldo Mendoza Villarroel, Ademir Clemente Villena Zevallos, Cristian Jose Lopez Del Alamo

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With the advancement of technology it is now possible to scan entire objects and obtain their digital representation by using point clouds or polygon meshes. However, some objects may be broken or have missing parts; thus, several methods focused on this problem have been proposed based on Geometric Deep Learning, such as GCNN, ACNN, PointNet, among others. In this article an approach from a different paradigm is proposed, using metric data structures to index global descriptors in the spectral domain and allow the recovery of a set of similar models in polynomial time; to later use the Iterative Close Point algorithm and recover the parts of the incomplete model using the geometry and topology of the model with less Hausdorff distance.

Keywords: 3D reconstruction method, point cloud completion, shape completion, similarity search

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Authors: Ramona Moldovan, Doina Cosman, Sebastian Moldovan, Radu Popp, Victor Pop

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MENTALICA is a project aimed at developing and evaluating a platform that can assist individuals diagnosed with severe mental disorders and their families in managing the consequences associated with severe mental disorders, recurrence risks, prevention strategies and treatment options. MENTALICA is a platform based on guidance issued by some of the most prominent scientific organizations in the world. In order to personalize the information provided, the program explores details about the personal and family history of mental disorders. MENTALICA summarizes the answers and gives respondents a personal assessment. This includes personalized information and support about schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and schizoaffective disorder. MENTALICA includes several modules: Family history tools, Risk assessment tools and Risk factor sheets, Practical guides for patients, Practical guides for families, Guidelines for clinicians. Currently, there are no available guidelines for genetic counselling for mental disorders. Respondents can print out their reports and discuss them with family members or their doctors. We will briefly present the current status of MENTALICA and its implications for patients, professionals and the community.

Keywords: genetic counseling, mental disorders, platform

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Authors: Sirilak Areerachakul, Nat Ployong, Supayothin Na Songkla

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This research’s objective is to select the model with most accurate value by using Neural Network Technique as a way to filter potential students who enroll in IT course by electronic learning at Suan Suanadha Rajabhat University. It is designed to help students selecting the appropriate courses by themselves. The result showed that the most accurate model was 100 Folds Cross-validation which had 73.58% points of accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural network, classification, students, e-learning

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Authors: Johnson Audu, Faisal Fairag

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In a bounded subset of R^d, d=2 or 3, we consider the Darcy-Forchheimer power model with the exponent 1 < m ≤ 2 for a single-phase strong-inertia fluid flow in a porous medium. Under necessary compatibility condition, and some mild regularity assumptions on the interior and the boundary data, we prove the existence and uniqueness of solution (u, p) in L^(m+1 ) (Ω)^d X (W^(1,(m+1)/m) (Ω)^d ⋂L_0^2 (Ω)^d) and its stability.

Keywords: porous media, power law, strong inertia, nonlinear, monotone type

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Authors: Ekaterina Artiukhina, Panagiotis Grammelis

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Torrefaction of biomass pellets is considered as a useful pretreatment technology in order to convert them into a high quality solid biofuel that is more suitable for pyrolysis, gasification, combustion and co-firing applications. In the course of torrefaction the temperature varies across the pellet, and therefore chemical reactions proceed unevenly within the pellet. However, the uniformity of the thermal distribution along the pellet is generally assumed. The torrefaction process of a single cylindrical pellet is modeled here, accounting for heat transfer coupled with chemical kinetics. The drying sub-model was also introduced. The non-stationary process of wood pellet decomposition is described by the system of non-linear partial differential equations over the temperature and mass. The model captures well the main features of the experimental data.

Keywords: torrefaction, biomass pellets, model, heat, mass transfer

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Authors: Ala Hanetite

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The purpose of this article is to present, by means of a model, the determinants of organisational culture which influence creativity and innovation. A literature study showed that a model, based on the open systems theory and the work of Schein, can offer a holistic approach in describing organisational culture. The relationship between creativity, innovation and culture is discussed in this context. Against the background of this model, the determinants of organisational culture were identified. The determinants are strategy, structure, support mechanisms, behaviour that encourages innovation, and open communication. The influence of each determinant on creativity and innovation is discussed. Values, norms and beliefs that play a role in creativity and innovation can either support or inhibit creativity and innovation depending on how they influence individual and group behaviour. This is also explained in the article.

Keywords: attitudes, creativity, innovation, organisational culture

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Authors: Pawinee Sorawech

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The purpose of this study was to investigate the quality improvement of painting assignments for grade 4-6 students by using PDCA cycle. This study employed a qualitative technique. Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University and its demonstration school were selected as the area of study. An in-depth interview was utilized. The findings revealed that model of PDCA cycle was a proper model to increase the quality of painting assignments for grade 4-6 students. The six steps of improvement included: studying the PDCA model, setting up a plan, determining the scope of work, creating a strategy, developing a quality for painting assignment, and coming up with a handbook for a quality improvement of painting assignment.

Keywords: quality, painting assignments, PDCA cycle, grade 4-6 students

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Authors: Trupti Meher, Harihar Sahoo

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Premature menopause refers to the occurrence of menopause before the age of 40 years. Women who experience premature menopause either due to biological or induced reasons have a longer duration of exposure to severe symptoms and adverse health consequences when compared to those who undergo menopause at a later age, despite the fact that premature menopause has a profound effect on the health of women. This study attempted to determine the prevalence and predictors of premature menopause among women aged 25-39 years, using data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) conducted during 2015–16 in India. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression were used to carry out the result. The results revealed that the prevalence of premature menopause in India was 3.7 percent. Out of which, 2.1 percent of women had experienced natural premature menopause, whereas 1.7 percent had premature surgical menopause. The prevalence of premature menopause was highest in the southern region of India. Further, results of the multivariate model indicated that rural women, women with higher parity, early age at childbearing and women with smoking habits were at a greater risk of premature menopause. A sizeable proportion of women in India are attaining menopause prematurely. Unless due attention is given to this matter, it will emerge as a major problem in India in the future. The study also emphasized the need for further research to enhance knowledge on the problems of premature menopausal women in different socio-cultural settings in India.

Keywords: India, natural menopause, premature menopause, surgical menopause

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Authors: Wael Elsaady, S. Olutunde Oyadiji, Adel Nasser

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The non-linear flow characteristics of magnetorheological (MR) fluids in MR dampers are studied via a coupled numerical approach that incorporates a two-phase flow model. The approach couples the Finite Element (FE) modelling of the damper magnetic circuit, with the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the flow field in the damper. The two-phase flow CFD model accounts for the effect of fluid compressibility due to the presence of liquid and gas in the closed domain of the damper. The dynamic mesh model included in ANSYS/Fluent CFD solver is used to simulate the movement of the MR damper piston in order to perform the fluid excitation. The two-phase flow analysis is studied by both Volume-Of-Fluid (VOF) model and mixture model that are included in ANSYS/Fluent. The CFD models show that the hysteretic behaviour of MR dampers is due to the effect of fluid compressibility. The flow field shows the distributions of pressure, velocity, and viscosity contours. In particular, it shows the high non-Newtonian viscosity in the affected fluid regions by the magnetic field and the low Newtonian viscosity elsewhere. Moreover, the dependence of gas volume fraction on the liquid pressure inside the damper is predicted by the mixture model. The presented approach targets a better understanding of the complicated flow characteristics of viscoplastic fluids that could be applied in different applications.

Keywords: viscoplastic fluid, magnetic FE analysis, computational fluid dynamics, two-phase flow, dynamic mesh, user-defined functions

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Authors: Nasib Zaman, Maneesha Kour, Muhammad Rizwan, Fazal Akbar

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Abstract: Chikungunya fever is a re-emerging rapidly spreading mosquito-borne disease cause by Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti mosquito vectors. Currently, it is affecting millions of people globally. Objective: This study's main objective was to find the incidence of chikungunya fever in the Swat region and the factors associated with the spread of this infection. Method: This study was carried out in different areas of Swat. Blood samples and data were collected from selected patients, and a questionnaire was filled for each patient. 3-5ml of the specimen was taken from the patient's vein and serum, or plasma was separated by centrifugation. Chikungunya tests were performed for IgG and IgM antibodies. The data was analyzed by SPSS and Graph Paid Prism 5. Results: A total of 169 patients were included in this study, out of which 103 (60.9%) having age less than 30 years were positive for chikungunya infection and 66 (39.1%) having more than 30 years were negative for this infection. Only 1 (0.6%) were positive for both IgG and IgM antibody. About 15 (8.9%) patients have diagnosed with positive IgG antibodies, and 25 (26.6%) patients were positive for IgM positive antibodies. The infection rate was significantly higher in males compared to females 71 (59.6%) vs. 14 (38%) P value=0.088, OR=1.7. Conclusion: This study concludes clinical knowledge and awareness that are necessary for a diagnosis of chikungunya infection properly. Therefore it is important to educate people for the eradication of this infection. Recommendation: This study also recommends investigating the other risk factors associated with this infection.

Keywords: Chikungunya, risk factor, Incidence, antibodies, mosquito

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Authors: Rituparna Nath, Shawn J. Marshall

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Glaciers are one of the main sensitive climatic indicators, as they respond strongly to small climatic shifts. We develop a flow line model of glacier dynamics to simulate the past and future extent of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with the aim of coupling this model within larger scale regional climate models of glacier response to climate change. This paper will focus on glacier-climate modeling and reconstructions of glacier volume from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present for Athabasca Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Glacier thickness, volume and mass change will be constructed using flow line modelling and examination of different climate scenarios that are able to give good reconstructions of LIA ice extent. With the availability of SPOT 5 imagery, Digital elevation models and GIS Arc Hydro tool, ice catchment properties-glacier width and LIA moraines have been extracted using automated procedures. Simulation of glacier mass change will inform estimates of meltwater run off over the historical period and model calibration from the LIA reconstruction will aid in future projections of the effects of climate change on glacier recession. Furthermore, the model developed will be effective for further future studies with ensembles of glaciers.

Keywords: flow line modeling, Athabasca Glacier, glacier mass balance, Remote Sensing, Arc hydro tool, little ice age

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Authors: Rafal Sochaczewski, Ksenia Siadkowska, Tytus Tulwin

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The paper describes the modeling of a fuel injector for common rail systems. A one-dimensional model of a solenoid-valve-controlled injector with Valve Closes Orifice (VCO) spray was modelled in the AVL Hydsim. This model shows the dynamic phenomena that occur in the injector. The accuracy of the calibration, based on a regulation of the parameters of the control valve and the nozzle needle lift, was verified by comparing the numerical results of injector flow rate. Our model is capable of a precise simulation of injector operating parameters in relation to injection time and fuel pressure in a fuel rail. As a result, there were made characteristics of the injector flow rate and backflow.

Keywords: common rail, diesel engine, fuel injector, modeling

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Authors: S. Ilahi, M. Baira, F. Saidi, N. Yacoubi, L. Auvray, H. Maaref

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Photo-thermal deflection technique (PTD) is used to study the nonradiative recombination process in BGaAs/GaAs alloy with boron composition of 3% and 8% grown by metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD). A two layer theoretical model has been developed taking into account both thermal and electronic contribution in the photothermal signal allowing to extract the electronic parameters namely electronic diffusivity, surface and interface recombination. It is found that the increase of boron composition alters the BGaAs epilayers transport properties.

Keywords: photothermal defelction technique, two layer model, BGaAs/GaAs alloys, boron composition

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Authors: Wendy Flory, Kazi Czarnecki, Matthijs Mercy, Mark Joswiak, Mary Beth Seasholtz

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Polyurethane Materials are present in a wide range of industrial segments such as Furniture, Building and Construction, Composites, Automotive, Electronics, and more. Dow is one of the leaders for the manufacture of the two main raw materials, Isocyanates and Polyols used to produce polyurethane products. Dow is also a key player for the manufacture of Polyurethane Systems/Formulations designed for targeted applications. In 1990, the first analytical chemometric models were developed and deployed for use in the Dow QC labs of the polyols business for the quantification of OH, water, cloud point, and viscosity. Over the years many models have been added; there are now over 140 models for quantification and hundreds for product identification, too many to be reasonable for support. There are 29 global models alone for the quantification of OH across > 70 products at many sites. An attempt was made to consolidate these into a single model. While the consolidated model proved good statistics across the entire range of OH, several products had a bias by ASTM E1655 with individual product validation. This project summary will show the strategy for global model updates for OH, to reduce the number of models for quantification from over 140 to 5 or less using chemometric methods. In order to gain an understanding of the best product groupings, we identify clusters by reducing spectra to a few dimensions via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP). Results from these cluster analyses and a separate validation set allowed dow to reduce the number of models for predicting OH from 29 to 3 without loss of accuracy.

Keywords: hydroxyl, global model, model maintenance, near infrared, polyol

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Authors: Javad Abdi, Azam Famil Khalili

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Modeling emotions have attracted much attention in recent years, both in cognitive psychology and design of artificial systems. However, it is a negative factor in decision-making; emotions have shown to be a strong faculty for making fast satisfying decisions. In this paper, we have adapted a computational model based on the limbic system in the mammalian brain for control engineering applications. Learning in this model based on Temporal Difference (TD) Learning, we applied the proposed controller (termed BELBIC) for a simple model of a submarine. The model was supposed to reach the desired depth underwater. Our results demonstrate excellent control action, disturbance handling, and system parameter robustness for TDBELBIC. The proposal method, regarding the present conditions, the system action in the part and the controlling aims, can control the system in a way that these objectives are attained in the least amount of time and the best way.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, temporal difference, brain emotional learning based intelligent controller, heating- ventilating and air conditioning

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Authors: Danielle A. Walker, Kyle L. Johnson, Patrick J. Fox, Jacen S. Moore

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The HIV Continuum of Care has become a universal model to provide context for the process of HIV testing, linkage to care, treatment, and viral suppression. HIV testing is the first step in moving toward community viral suppression. Countries with a lower socioeconomic status experience the lowest rates of testing and access to care. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is located in the heart of sub-Saharan Africa, where testing and access to care are low and women experience higher HIV prevalence compared to men. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo there is only a 21.6% HIV testing rate among women. Because a critical gap exists between a woman’s risk of contracting HIV and the decision to be tested, this study was conducted to obtain a better understanding of the relationship between factors that could influence HIV testing among women. The datasets analyzed were from the 2013-14 Democratic Republic of the Congo Demographic and Health Survey Program. The data was subset for women with an age range of 18-49 years. All missing cases were removed and one variable was recoded. The total sample size analyzed was 14,982 women. The results showed that there did not seem to be a difference in HIV testing by mean age. Out of 11 religious categories (Catholic, Protestant, Armee de salut, Kimbanguiste, Other Christians, Muslim, Bundu dia kongo, Vuvamu, Animist, no religion, and other), those who identified as Other Christians had the highest testing rate of 25.9% and those identified as Vuvamu had a 0% testing rate (p<0.001). There was a significant difference in testing by religion. Only 0.7% of women surveyed identified as having no religious affiliation. This suggests partnerships with key community and religious leaders could be a tool to increase testing. Over 60% of women who had never been tested for HIV did not know where to be tested. This highlights the need to educate communities on where testing facilities can be located. Almost 80% of women who believed HIV could be transmitted by supernatural means and/or witchcraft had never been tested before (p=0.08). Cultural beliefs could influence risk perception and testing decisions. Consequently, misconceptions need to be considered when implementing HIV testing and prevention programs. Location by province, years of education, and wealth index were also analyzed to control for socioeconomic status. Kinshasa had the highest testing rate of 54.2% of women living there, and both Equateur and Kasai-Occidental had less than a 10% testing rate (p<0.001). As the education level increased up to 12 years, testing increased (p<0.001). Women within the highest quintile of the wealth index had a 56.1% testing rate, and women within the lowest quintile had a 6.5% testing rate (p<0.001). This study concludes that further research is needed to identify culturally competent methods to increase HIV education programs, build partnerships with key community leaders, and improve knowledge on access to care.

Keywords: Democratic Republic of the Congo, cultural beliefs, education, HIV testing

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Authors: Firas Gerges, Frank Y. Shih

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Malignant melanoma, known simply as melanoma, is a type of skin cancer that appears as a mole on the skin. It is critical to detect this cancer at an early stage because it can spread across the body and may lead to the patient's death. When detected early, melanoma is curable. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model (convolutional neural networks) in order to automatically classify skin lesion images as malignant or benign. Images underwent certain pre-processing steps to diminish the effect of the normal skin region on the model. The result of the proposed model showed a significant improvement over previous work, achieving an accuracy of 97%.

Keywords: deep learning, skin cancer, image processing, melanoma

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Authors: Lívia Pinheiro Carvalho, Luciana Di Thommazo-Luporini, Rafael Luís Luporini, José Carlos Bonjorno Junior, Renata Pedrolongo Basso Vanelli, Manoel Carneiro de Oliveira Junior, Rodolfo de Paula Vieira, Renata Trimer, Renata G. Mendes, Mylène Aubertin-Leheudre, Audrey Borghi-Silva

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Rationale: Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and functional capacity in young obese and normal-weight people are associated with metabolic and cardiovascular diseases and mortality. However, it remains unclear whether their metabolically healthy (MH) or at risk (AR) phenotype influences cardiorespiratory fitness in this vulnerable population such as obese adults but also in normal-weight people. HOMA insulin resistance index (HI) and leptin-adiponectin ratio (LA) are strong markers for characterizing those phenotypes that we hypothesized to be associated with physical fitness. We also hypothesized that an easy and feasible exercise test could identify a subpopulation at risk to develop metabolic and related disorders. Methods: Thirty-nine sedentary men and women (20-45y; 18.530 kg.m-2) underwent a clinical evaluation, including the six-minute step test (ST), a well-validated and reliable test for young people. Body composition assessment was done by a tetrapolar bioimpedance in a fasting state and in the folicular phase for women. A maximal cardiopulmonary exercise testing, as well as the ST, evaluated the oxygen uptake at the peak of the test (VO2peak) by an ergospirometer Oxycon Mobile. Lipids, glucose, insulin were analysed and the ELISA method quantified the serum leptin and adiponectin from blood samples. Volunteers were divided in two groups: AR or MH according to a HI cutoff of 1.95, which was previously determined in the literature. T-test for comparison between groups, Pearson´s test to correlate main variables and ROC analysis for discriminating AR from up-and-down cycles in ST (SC) were applied (p<0.05). Results: Higher LA, fat mass (FM) and lower HDL, SC, leg lean mass (LM) and VO2peak were found in AR than in MH. Significant correlations were found between VO2peak and SC (r= 0.80) as well as between LA and FM (r=0.87), VO2peak (r=-0.73), and SC (r=-0.65). Area under de curve showed moderate accuracy (0.75) of SC <173 to discriminate AR phenotype. Conclusion: Our study found that at risk obese and normal-weight subjects showed an unhealthy metabolism as well as a poor CRF and functional daily activity capacity. Additionally, a simple and less costly functional test associated with above-mentioned aspects is able to identify ‘at risk’ subjects for primary intervention with important clinical and health implications.

Keywords: aerobic capacity, exercise, fitness, metabolism, obesity, 6MST

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Authors: Hajar Hajmohammadi, Paul Pfeffer, Anna De Simoni, Jim Cole, Chris Griffiths, Sally Hull, Benjamin Heydecker

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Background: There is strong interest in the relationship between short-term air pollution exposure and human health. Most studies in this field focus on serious health effects such as death or hospital admission, but air pollution exposure affects many people with less severe impacts, such as exacerbations of respiratory conditions. A lack of quantitative analysis and inconsistent findings suggest improved methodology is needed to understand these effectsmore fully. Method: We developed a time series regression model to quantify the relationship between daily NOₓ concentration and Asthma exacerbations requiring oral steroids from primary care settings. Explanatory variables include daily NOₓ concentration measurements extracted from 8 available background and roadside monitoring stations in east London and daily ambient temperature extracted for London City Airport, located in east London. Lags of NOx concentrations up to 21 days (3 weeks) were used in the model. The dependent variable was the daily number of oral steroid courses prescribed for GP registered patients with asthma in east London. A mixed distribution model was then fitted to the significant lags of the regression model. Result: Results of the time series modelling showed a significant relationship between NOₓconcentrations on each day and the number of oral steroid courses prescribed in the following three weeks. In addition, the model using only roadside stations performs better than the model with a mixture of roadside and background stations.

Keywords: air pollution, time series modeling, public health, road transport

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Authors: Daniel C. Bonzo

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Practical considerations lead to the use of unit of analysis within subjects, e.g., bleeding episodes or treatment-related adverse events, in rare disease settings. This is coupled with data augmentation techniques such as extrapolation to enlarge the subject base. In general, one can think about extrapolation of data as extending information and conclusions from one estimand to another estimand. This approach induces hierarchichal clustered data with varying cluster sizes. Extrapolation of clinical trial data is being accepted increasingly by regulatory agencies as a means of generating data in diverse situations during drug development process. Under certain circumstances, data can be extrapolated to a different population, a different but related indication, and different but similar product. We consider here the problem of estimation (point and interval) using a mixed-models approach under an extrapolation. It is proposed that estimators (point and interval) be constructed using weighting schemes for the clusters, e.g., equally weighted and with weights proportional to cluster size. Simulated data generated under varying scenarios are then used to evaluate the performance of this approach. In conclusion, the evaluation result showed that the approach is a useful means for improving statistical inference in rare disease settings and thus aids not only signal detection but risk-benefit evaluation as well.

Keywords: clustered data, estimand, extrapolation, mixed model

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Authors: Yindi Zhao, Yun Zhang, Silu Xia, Lixin Wu

Abstract:

The contours and areas of water surfaces, especially lakes, often change due to natural disasters and construction activities. It is an effective way to extract and update water contours from satellite images using image processing algorithms. However, to produce optimal water surface contours that are close to true boundaries is still a challenging task. This paper compares the performances of three different level set models, including the Chan-Vese (CV) model, the signed pressure force (SPF) model, and the region-scalable fitting (RSF) energy model for extracting lake contours. After experiment testing, it is indicated that the RSF model, in which a region-scalable fitting (RSF) energy functional is defined and incorporated into a variational level set formulation, is superior to CV and SPF, and it can get desirable contour lines when there are “holes” in the regions of waters, such as the islands in the lake. Therefore, the RSF model is applied to extracting lake contours from Landsat satellite images. Four temporal Landsat satellite images of the years of 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014 are used in our study. All of them were acquired in May, with the same path/row (121/036) covering Xuzhou City, Jiangsu Province, China. Firstly, the near infrared (NIR) band is selected for water extraction. Image registration is conducted on NIR bands of different temporal images for information update, and linear stretching is also done in order to distinguish water from other land cover types. Then for the first temporal image acquired in 2000, lake contours are extracted via the RSF model with initialization of user-defined rectangles. Afterwards, using the lake contours extracted the previous temporal image as the initialized values, lake contours are updated for the current temporal image by means of the RSF model. Meanwhile, the changed and unchanged lakes are also detected. The results show that great changes have taken place in two lakes, i.e. Dalong Lake and Panan Lake, and RSF can actually extract and effectively update lake contours using multi-temporal satellite image.

Keywords: level set model, multi-temporal image, lake contour extraction, contour update

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Authors: Hassan Karimi, Fred Piercy, Ruoxi Chen, Ana L. Jaramillo-Sierra, Wei-Ning Chang, Manjushree Palit, Catherine Martosudarmo, Angelito Antonio

Abstract:

Background: The two psychotherapy camps, the randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and the common factors model, have competitively claimed specific explanations for therapy effectiveness. Recently, scholars called for empirical evidence to show the role of common factors in therapeutic outcome in marriage and family therapy. Purpose: This cross-national study aims to explore how clinicians, across different nations and theoretical orientations, attribute the contribution of common factors to therapy outcome. Method: A brief common factors questionnaire (CFQ-with a Cronbach’s Alpha, 0.77) was developed and administered in seven nations. A series of statistical analyses (paired-samples t-test, independent sample t-test, ANOVA) were conducted: to compare clinicians perceived contribution of total common factors versus model-specific factors, to compare each pair of common factors’ categories, and to compare clinicians from collectivistic nations versus clinicians from individualistic nation. Results: Clinicians across seven nations attributed 86% to common factors versus 14% to model-specific factors. Clinicians attributed 34% of therapeutic change to client’s factors, 26% to therapist’s factors, 26% to relationship factors, and 14% to model-specific techniques. The ANOVA test indicated each of the three categories of common factors (client 34%, therapist 26%, relationship 26%) showed higher contribution in therapeutic outcome than the category of model specific factors (techniques 14%). Clinicians with psychology degree attributed more contribution to model-specific factors than clinicians with MFT and counseling degrees who attributed more contribution to client factors. Clinicians from collectivistic nations attributed larger contributions to therapist’s factors (M=28.96, SD=12.75) than the US clinicians (M=23.22, SD=7.73). The US clinicians attributed a larger contribution to client’s factors (M=39.02, SD=1504) than clinicians from the collectivistic nations (M=28.71, SD=15.74). Conclusion: The findings indicate clinicians across the globe attributed more than two thirds of therapeutic change to CFs, which emphasize the training of the common factors model in the field. CFs, like model-specific factors, vary in their contribution to therapy outcome in relation to specific client, therapist, problem, treatment model, and sociocultural context. Sociocultural expectations and norms should be considered as a context in which both CFs and model-specific factors function toward therapeutic goals. Clinicians need to foster a cultural competency specifically regarding the divergent ways that CFs can be activated due to specific sociocultural values.

Keywords: common factors, model-specific factors, cross-national survey, therapist cultural competency, enhancing therapist efficacy

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Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Yi-Shiuan Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, a new concept of closed-loop design model is presented. The closed-loop design model is developed by integrating forward design and reverse design. Based on this new concept, a closed-loop design model for sustainable manufacturing by integrated evaluation of forward design, reverse design, and green manufacturing using a fuzzy analytic network process is developed. In the design stage of a product, with a given product requirement and objective, there can be different ways to design the detailed components and specifications. Therefore, there can be different design cases to achieve the same product requirement and objective. Thus, in the design evaluation stage, it is required to analyze and evaluate the different design cases. The purpose of this research is to develop a model for evaluating the design cases by integrated evaluation of forward design, reverse design, and green manufacturing models. A fuzzy analytic network process model is presented for integrated evaluation of the criteria in the three models. The comparison matrices for evaluating the criteria in the three groups are established. The total relational values among the three groups represent the total relational effects. In application, a super matrix can be created and the total relational values can be used to evaluate the design cases for decision-making to select the final design case. An example product is demonstrated in this presentation. It shows that the model is useful for integrated evaluation of forward design, reverse design, and green manufacturing to achieve a closed-loop design for sustainable manufacturing objective.

Keywords: design evaluation, forward design, reverse design, closed-loop design, supply chain management, closed-loop supply chain, fuzzy analytic network process

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Authors: Azza A. Ali, Asmaa Abdelaty, Mona G. Khalil, Mona M. Kamal, Karema Abu-Elfotuh

Abstract:

Background: Aluminium (Al) is known as a neurotoxin environmental pollutant that can cause certain diseases as Dementia, Alzheimer's disease, and Parkinsonism. It is widely used in antacid drugs as well as in food additives and toothpaste. Stresses have been linked to cognitive impairment; Social isolation (SI) may exacerbate memory deficits while protein malnutrition (PM) increases oxidative damage in cortex, hippocampus and cerebellum. The risk of cognitive decline may be lower by maintaining social connections. Epigallocatechin-3-gallate (EGCG) is the most abundant catechin in green tea and has antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and anti-atherogenic effects as well as health-promoting effects in CNS. Objective: To study the influence of different stressful conditions as social isolation, electric shock (EC) and inadequate Nutritional condition as PM on neurotoxicity induced by Al in rats as well as to investigate the possible protective effect of EGCG in these stressful and PM conditions. Methods: Rats were divided into two major groups; protected group which was daily treated during three weeks of the experiment by EGCG (10 mg/kg, IP) or non-treated. Protected and non-protected groups included five subgroups as following: One normal control received saline and four Al toxicity groups injected daily for three weeks by ALCl3 (70 mg/kg, IP). One of them served as Al toxicity model, two groups subjected to different stresses either by isolation as mild stressful condition (SI-associated Al toxicity model) or by electric shock as high stressful condition (EC- associated Al toxicity model). The last was maintained on 10% casein diet (PM -associated Al toxicity model). Isolated rats were housed individually in cages covered with black plastic. Biochemical changes in the brain as acetyl cholinesterase (ACHE), Aβ, brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), inflammatory mediators (TNF-α, IL-1β), oxidative parameters (MDA, SOD, TAC) were estimated for all groups. Histopathological changes in different brain regions were also evaluated. Results: Rats exposed to Al for three weeks showed brain neurotoxicity and neuronal degenerations. Both mild (SI) and high (EC) stressful conditions as well as inadequate nutrition (PM) enhanced Al-induced neurotoxicity and brain neuronal degenerations; the enhancement induced by stresses especially in its higher conditions (ES) was more pronounced than that of inadequate nutritional conditions (PM) as indicated by the significant increase in Aβ, ACHE, MDA, TNF-α, IL-1β together with the significant decrease in SOD, TAC, BDNF. On the other hand, EGCG showed more pronounced protection against hazards of Al in both stressful conditions (SI and EC) rather than in PM .The protective effects of EGCG were indicated by the significant decrease in Aβ, ACHE, MDA, TNF-α, IL-1β together with the increase in SOD, TAC, BDNF and confirmed by brain histopathological examinations. Conclusion: Neurotoxicity and brain neuronal degenerations induced by Al were more severe with stresses than with PM. EGCG can protect against Al-induced brain neuronal degenerations in all conditions. Consequently, administration of EGCG together with socialization as well as adequate protein nutrition is advised especially on excessive Al-exposure to avoid the severity of its neuronal toxicity.

Keywords: environmental pollution, aluminum, social isolation, protein malnutrition, neuronal degeneration, epigallocatechin-3-gallate, rats

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