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Search results for: tomato yield prediction

13 Multimodal Integration of EEG, fMRI and Positron Emission Tomography Data Using Principal Component Analysis for Prognosis in Coma Patients

Authors: Denis Jordan, Daniel Golkowski, Mathias Lukas, Katharina Merz, Caroline Mlynarcik, Max Maurer, Valentin Riedl, Stefan Foerster, Eberhard F. Kochs, Andreas Bender, Ruediger Ilg

Abstract:

Introduction: So far, clinical assessments that rely on behavioral responses to differentiate coma states or even predict outcome in coma patients are unreliable, e.g. because of some patients’ motor disabilities. The present study was aimed to provide prognosis in coma patients using markers from electroencephalogram (EEG), blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET). Unsuperwised principal component analysis (PCA) was used for multimodal integration of markers. Methods: Approved by the local ethics committee of the Technical University of Munich (Germany) 20 patients (aged 18-89) with severe brain damage were acquired through intensive care units at the Klinikum rechts der Isar in Munich and at the Therapiezentrum Burgau (Germany). At the day of EEG/fMRI/PET measurement (date I) patients (<3.5 month in coma) were grouped in the minimal conscious state (MCS) or vegetative state (VS) on the basis of their clinical presentation (coma recovery scale-revised, CRS-R). Follow-up assessment (date II) was also based on CRS-R in a period of 8 to 24 month after date I. At date I, 63 channel EEG (Brain Products, Gilching, Germany) was recorded outside the scanner, and subsequently simultaneous FDG-PET/fMRI was acquired on an integrated Siemens Biograph mMR 3T scanner (Siemens Healthineers, Erlangen Germany). Power spectral densities, permutation entropy (PE) and symbolic transfer entropy (STE) were calculated in/between frontal, temporal, parietal and occipital EEG channels. PE and STE are based on symbolic time series analysis and were already introduced as robust markers separating wakefulness from unconsciousness in EEG during general anesthesia. While PE quantifies the regularity structure of the neighboring order of signal values (a surrogate of cortical information processing), STE reflects information transfer between two signals (a surrogate of directed connectivity in cortical networks). fMRI was carried out using SPM12 (Wellcome Trust Center for Neuroimaging, University of London, UK). Functional images were realigned, segmented, normalized and smoothed. PET was acquired for 45 minutes in list-mode. For absolute quantification of brain’s glucose consumption rate in FDG-PET, kinetic modelling was performed with Patlak’s plot method. BOLD signal intensity in fMRI and glucose uptake in PET was calculated in 8 distinct cortical areas. PCA was performed over all markers from EEG/fMRI/PET. Prognosis (persistent VS and deceased patients vs. recovery to MCS/awake from date I to date II) was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) including bootstrap confidence intervals (CI, *: p<0.05). Results: Prognosis was reliably indicated by the first component of PCA (AUC=0.99*, CI=0.92-1.00) showing a higher AUC when compared to the best single markers (EEG: AUC<0.96*, fMRI: AUC<0.86*, PET: AUC<0.60). CRS-R did not show prediction (AUC=0.51, CI=0.29-0.78). Conclusion: In a multimodal analysis of EEG/fMRI/PET in coma patients, PCA lead to a reliable prognosis. The impact of this result is evident, as clinical estimates of prognosis are inapt at time and could be supported by quantitative biomarkers from EEG, fMRI and PET. Due to the small sample size, further investigations are required, in particular allowing superwised learning instead of the basic approach of unsuperwised PCA.

Keywords: coma states and prognosis, electroencephalogram, entropy, functional magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning, positron emission tomography, principal component analysis

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12 Evaluation of Coal Quality and Geomechanical Moduli Using Core and Geophysical Logs: Study from Middle Permian Barakar Formation of Gondwana Coalfield

Authors: Joyjit Dey, Souvik Sen

Abstract:

Middle Permian Barakar formation is the major economic coal bearing unit of vast east-west trending Damodar Valley basin of Gondwana coalfield. Primary sedimentary structures were studied from the core holes, which represent majorly four facies groups: sandstone dominated facies, sandstone-shale heterolith facies, shale facies and coal facies. Total eight major coal seams have been identified with the bottom most seam being the thickest. Laterally, continuous coal seams were deposited in the calm and quiet environment of extensive floodplain swamps. Channel sinuosity and lateral channel migration/avulsion results in lateral facies heterogeneity and coal splitting. Geophysical well logs (Gamma-Resistivity-Density logs) have been used to establish the vertical and lateral correlation of various litho units field-wide, which reveals the predominance of repetitive fining upwards cycles. Well log data being a permanent record, offers a strong foundation for generating log based property evaluation and helps in characterization of depositional units in terms of lateral and vertical heterogeneity. Low gamma, high resistivity, low density is the typical coal seam signatures in geophysical logs. Here, we have used a density cutoff of 1.6 g/cc as a primary discriminator of coal and the same has been employed to compute various coal assay parameters, which are ash, fixed carbon, moisture, volatile content, cleat porosity, vitrinite reflectance (VRo%), which were calibrated with the laboratory based measurements. The study shows ash content and VRo% increase from west to east (towards basin margin), while fixed carbon, moisture and volatile content increase towards west, depicting increased coal quality westwards. Seam wise cleat porosity decreases from east to west, this would be an effect of overburden, as overburden pressure increases westward with the deepening of basin causing more sediment packet deposited on the western side of the study area. Coal is a porous, viscoelastic material in which velocity and strain both change nonlinearly with stress, especially for stress applied perpendicular to the bedding plane. Usually, the coal seam has a high velocity contrast relative to its neighboring layers. Despite extensive discussion of the maceral and chemical properties of coal, its elastic characteristics have received comparatively little attention. The measurement of the elastic constants of coal presents many difficulties: sample-to-sample inhomogeneity and fragility and velocity dependence on stress, orientation, humidity, and chemical content. In this study, a conclusive empirical equation VS= 0.80VP-0.86 has been used to model shear velocity from compression velocity. Also the same has been used to compute various geomechanical moduli. Geomech analyses yield a Poisson ratio of 0.348 against coals. Average bulk modulus value is 3.97 GPA, while average shear modulus and Young’s modulus values are coming out as 1.34 and 3.59 GPA respectively. These middle Permian Barakar coals show an average 23.84 MPA uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) with 4.97 MPA cohesive strength and 0.46 as friction coefficient. The output values of log based proximate parameters and geomechanical moduli suggest a medium volatile Bituminous grade for the studied coal seams, which is found in the laboratory based core study as well.

Keywords: core analysis, coal characterization, geophysical log, geo-mechanical moduli

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11 The Development of the Geological Structure of the Bengkulu Fore Arc Basin, Western Edge of Sundaland, Sumatra, and Its Relationship to Hydrocarbon Trapping Mechanism

Authors: Lauti Dwita Santy, Hermes Panggabean, Syahrir Andi Mangga

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The Bengkulu Basin is part of the Sunda Arc system, which is a classic convergent type margin that occur around the southern rim of the Eurasian continental (Sundaland) plate. The basin is located between deep sea trench (Mentawai Outer Arc high) and the volvanic/ magmatic Arc of the Barisan Mountains Range. To the northwest it is bounded by Padang High, to the northest by Barisan Mountains (Sumatra Fault Zone) to the southwest by Mentawai Fault Zone and to the southeast by Semangko High/ Sunda Strait. The stratigraphic succession and tectonic development can be broadly divided into four stage/ periods, i.e Late Jurassic- Early Cretaceous, Late Eocene-Early Oligocene, Late Oligocene-Early Miocene, Middle Miocene-Late Miocene and Pliocene-Plistocene, which are mainly controlled by the development of subduction activities. The Pre Tertiary Basement consist of sedimentary and shallow water limestone, calcareous mudstone, cherts and tholeiitic volcanic rocks, with Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous in age. The sedimentation in this basin is depend on the relief of the Pre Tertiary Basement (Woyla Terrane) and occured into two stages, i.e. transgressive stage during the Latest Oligocene-Early Middle Miocene Seblat Formation, and the regressive stage during the Latest Middle Miocene-Pleistocene (Lemau, Simpangaur and Bintunan Formations). The Pre-Tertiary Faults were more intensive than the overlying cover, The Tertiary Rocks. There are two main fault trends can be distinguished, Northwest–Southwest Faults and Northeast-Southwest Faults. The NW-SE fault (Ketaun) are commonly laterally persistent, are interpreted to the part of Sumatran Fault Systems. They commonly form the boundaries to the Pre Tertiary basement highs and therefore are one of the faults elements controlling the geometry and development of the Tertiary sedimentary basins.The Northeast-Southwest faults was formed a conjugate set to the Northwest–Southeast Faults. In the earliest Tertiary and reactivated during the Plio-Pleistocene in a compressive mode with subsequent dextral displacement. The Block Faulting accross these two sets of faults related to approximate North–South compression in Paleogene time and produced a series of elongate basins separated by basement highs in the backarc and forearc region. The Bengkulu basin is interpreted having evolved from pull apart feature in the area southwest of the main Sumatra Fault System related to NW-SE trending in dextral shear.Based on Pyrolysis Yield (PY) vs Total Organic Carbon (TOC) diagram show that Seblat and Lemau Formation belongs to oil and Gas Prone with the quality of the source rocks includes into excellent and good (Lemau Formation), Fair and Poor (Seblat Formation). The fine-grained carbonaceous sediment of the Seblat dan Lemau Formations as source rocks, the coarse grained and carbonate sediments of the Seblat and Lemau Formations as reservoir rocks, claystone bed in Seblat and Lemau Formation as caprock. The source rocks maturation are late immature to early mature, with kerogen type II and III (Seblat Formation), and late immature to post mature with kerogen type I and III (Lemau Formation). The burial history show to 2500 m in depthh with paleo temperature reached 80oC. Trapping mechanism occur during Oligo–Miocene and Middle Miocene, mainly in block faulting system.

Keywords: fore arc, bengkulu, sumatra, sundaland, hydrocarbon, trapping mechanism

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10 Investigation of Delamination Process in Adhesively Bonded Hardwood Elements under Changing Environmental Conditions

Authors: M. M. Hassani, S. Ammann, F. K. Wittel, P. Niemz, H. J. Herrmann

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Application of engineered wood, especially in the form of glued-laminated timbers has increased significantly. Recent progress in plywood made of high strength and high stiffness hardwoods, like European beech, gives designers in general more freedom by increased dimensional stability and load-bearing capacity. However, the strong hygric dependence of basically all mechanical properties renders many innovative ideas futile. The tendency of hardwood for higher moisture sorption and swelling coefficients lead to significant residual stresses in glued-laminated configurations, cross-laminated patterns in particular. These stress fields cause initiation and evolution of cracks in the bond-lines resulting in: interfacial de-bonding, loss of structural integrity, and reduction of load-carrying capacity. Subsequently, delamination of glued-laminated timbers made of hardwood elements can be considered as the dominant failure mechanism in such composite elements. In addition, long-term creep and mechano-sorption under changing environmental conditions lead to loss of stiffness and can amplify delamination growth over the lifetime of a structure even after decades. In this study we investigate the delamination process of adhesively bonded hardwood (European beech) elements subjected to changing climatic conditions. To gain further insight into the long-term performance of adhesively bonded elements during the design phase of new products, the development and verification of an authentic moisture-dependent constitutive model for various species is of great significance. Since up to now, a comprehensive moisture-dependent rheological model comprising all possibly emerging deformation mechanisms was missing, a 3D orthotropic elasto-plastic, visco-elastic, mechano-sorptive material model for wood, with all material constants being defined as a function of moisture content, was developed. Apart from the solid wood adherends, adhesive layer also plays a crucial role in the generation and distribution of the interfacial stresses. Adhesive substance can be treated as a continuum layer constructed from finite elements, represented as a homogeneous and isotropic material. To obtain a realistic assessment on the mechanical performance of the adhesive layer and a detailed look at the interfacial stress distributions, a generic constitutive model including all potentially activated deformation modes, namely elastic, plastic, and visco-elastic creep was developed. We focused our studies on the three most common adhesive systems for structural timber engineering: one-component polyurethane adhesive (PUR), melamine-urea-formaldehyde (MUF), and phenol-resorcinol-formaldehyde (PRF). The corresponding numerical integration approaches, with additive decomposition of the total strain are implemented within the ABAQUS FEM environment by means of user subroutine UMAT. To predict the true stress state, we perform a history dependent sequential moisture-stress analysis using the developed material models for both wood substrate and adhesive layer. Prediction of the delamination process is founded on the fracture mechanical properties of the adhesive bond-line, measured under different levels of moisture content and application of the cohesive interface elements. Finally, we compare the numerical predictions with the experimental observations of de-bonding in glued-laminated samples under changing environmental conditions.

Keywords: engineered wood, adhesive, material model, FEM analysis, fracture mechanics, delamination

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9 Optimum Irrigation System Management for Climate Resilient and Improved Productivity of Flood-based Livelihood Systems

Authors: Mara Getachew Zenebe, Luuk Fleskens, Abdu Obieda Ahmed

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This paper seeks to advance our scientific understanding of optimizing flood utilization in regions impacted by climate change, with a focus on enhancing agricultural productivity through effective irrigation management. The study was conducted as part of a three-year (2021 to 2023) USAID-supported initiative aimed at promoting Economic Growth and Peace in the Gash Agricultural Scheme (GAS), situated in Sudan's water-stressed Eastern region. GAS is the country's largest flood-irrigated scheme, covering 100,800 hectares of cultivable land, with a potential to provide the food security needs of over a quarter of a million agro-pastoral community members. GAS relies on the Gash River, which sources its water from high-intensity rainfall events in the highlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea. However, climate change and variations in these highlands have led to increased variability in the Gash River's flow. The study conducted water balance analyses based on a ten-year dataset of the annual Gash River flow, irrigated area; as well as the evapotranspiration demand of the major sorghum crop. Data collection methods included field measurements, surveys, remote sensing, and CropWat modelling. The water balance assessment revealed that the existing three-year rotation-based irrigation system management, capping cultivated land at 33,000 hectares annually, is excessively risk-averse. While this system reduced conflicts among the agro-pastoral communities by consistently delivering on the land promised to be annually cultivated, it also increased GAS's vulnerability to flood damage due to several reasons. The irrigation efficiency over the past decade was approximately 30%, leaving significant unharnessed floodwater that caused damage to infrastructure and agricultural land. The three-year rotation resulted in inadequate infrastructural maintenance, given the destructive nature of floods. Additionally, it led to infrequent land tillage, allowing the encroachment of mesquite trees hindering major sorghum crop growth. Remote sensing data confirmed that mesquite trees have overtaken 70,000 hectares in the past two decades, rendering them unavailable for agriculture. The water balance analyses suggest shifting to a two-year rotation, covering approximately 50,000 hectares annually while maintaining risk aversion. This shift could boost GAS's annual sorghum production by two-thirds, exceeding 850,000 tons. The scheme's efficiency can be further enhanced through low-cost on-farm interventions. Currently, large irrigation plots that range from 420 to 756 hectares are irrigated with limited water distribution guidance, leading to uneven irrigation. As demonstrated through field trials, implementing internal longitudinal bunds and horizontal deflector bunds can increase adequately irrigated parts of the irrigation plots from 50% to 80% and thus nearly double the sorghum yield to 2 tons per hectare while reducing the irrigation duration from 30 days to a maximum of 17 days. Flow measurements in 2021 and 2022 confirmed that these changes sufficiently meet the sorghum crop's water requirements, even with a conservative 60% field application efficiency assumption. These insights and lessons from the GAS on enhancing agricultural resilience and sustainability in the face of climate change are relevant to flood-based livelihood systems globally.

Keywords: climate change, irrigation management and productivity, variable flood flows, water balance analysis

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8 Location3: A Location Scouting Platform for the Support of Film and Multimedia Industries

Authors: Dimitrios Tzilopoulos, Panagiotis Symeonidis, Michael Loufakis, Dimosthenis Ioannidis, Dimitrios Tzovaras

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The domestic film industry in Greece has traditionally relied heavily on state support. While film productions are crucial for the country's economy, it has not fully capitalized on attracting and promoting foreign productions. The lack of motivation, organized state support for attraction and licensing, and the absence of location scouting have hindered its potential. Although recent legislative changes have addressed the first two of these issues, the development of a comprehensive location database and a search engine that would effectively support location scouting at the pre-production location scouting is still in its early stages. In addition to the expected benefits of the film, television, marketing, and multimedia industries, a location-scouting service platform has the potential to yield significant financial gains locally and nationally. By promoting featured places like cultural and archaeological sites, natural monuments, and attraction points for visitors, it plays a vital role in both cultural promotion and facilitating tourism development. This study introduces LOCATION3, an internet platform revolutionizing film production location management. It interconnects location providers, film crews, and multimedia stakeholders, offering a comprehensive environment for seamless collaboration. The platform's central geodatabase (PostgreSQL) stores each location’s attributes, while web technologies like HTML, JavaScript, CSS, React.js, and Redux power the user-friendly interface. Advanced functionalities, utilizing deep learning models, developed in Python, are integrated via Node.js. Visual data presentation is achieved using the JS Leaflet library, delivering an interactive map experience. LOCATION3 sets a new standard, offering a range of essential features to enhance the management of film production locations. Firstly, it empowers users to effortlessly upload audiovisual material enriched with geospatial and temporal data, such as location coordinates, photographs, videos, 360-degree panoramas, and 3D location models. With the help of cutting-edge deep learning algorithms, the application automatically tags these materials, while users can also manually tag them. Moreover, the application allows users to record locations directly through its user-friendly mobile application. Users can then embark on seamless location searches, employing spatial or descriptive criteria. This intelligent search functionality considers a combination of relevant tags, dominant colors, architectural characteristics, emotional associations, and unique location traits. One of the application's standout features is the ability to explore locations by their visual similarity to other materials, facilitated by a reverse image search. Also, the interactive map serves as both a dynamic display for locations and a versatile filter, adapting to the user's preferences and effortlessly enhancing location searches. To further streamline the process, the application facilitates the creation of location lightboxes, enabling users to efficiently organize and share their content via email. Going above and beyond location management, the platform also provides invaluable liaison, matchmaking, and online marketplace services. This powerful functionality bridges the gap between visual and three-dimensional geospatial material providers, local agencies, film companies, production companies, etc. so that those interested in a specific location can access additional material beyond what is stored on the platform, as well as access production services supporting the functioning and completion of productions in a location (equipment provision, transportation, catering, accommodation, etc.).

Keywords: deep learning models, film industry, geospatial data management, location scouting

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7 Structural Characteristics of HPDSP Concrete on Beam Column Joints

Authors: Hari Krishan Sharma, Sanjay Kumar Sharma, Sushil Kumar Swar

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Inadequate transverse reinforcement is considered as the main reason for the beam column joint shear failure observed during recent earthquakes. DSP matrix consists of cement and high content of micro-silica with low water to cement ratio while the aggregates are graded quartz sand. The use of reinforcing fibres leads not only to the increase of tensile/bending strength and specific fracture energy, but also to reduction of brittleness and, consequently, to production of non-explosive ruptures. Besides, fibre-reinforced materials are more homogeneous and less sensitive to small defects and flaws. Recent works on the freeze-thaw durability (also in the presence of de-icing salts) of fibre-reinforced DSP confirm the excellent behaviour in the expected long term service life.DSP materials, including fibre-reinforced DSP and CRC (Compact Reinforced Composites) are obtained by using high quantities of super plasticizers and high volumes of micro-silica. Steel fibres with high tensile yield strength of smaller diameter and short length in different fibre volume percentage and aspect ratio tilized to improve the performance by reducing the brittleness of matrix material. In the case of High Performance Densified Small Particle Concrete (HPDSPC), concrete is dense at the micro-structure level, tensile strain would be much higher than that of the conventional SFRC, SIFCON & SIMCON. Beam-column sub-assemblages used as moment resisting constructed using HPDSPC in the joint region with varying quantities of steel fibres, fibre aspect ratio and fibre orientation in the critical section. These HPDSPC in the joint region sub-assemblages tested under cyclic/earthquake loading. Besides loading measurements, frame displacements, diagonal joint strain and rebar strain adjacent to the joint will also be measured to investigate stress-strain behaviour, load deformation characteristics, joint shear strength, failure mechanism, ductility associated parameters, stiffness and energy dissipated parameters of the beam column sub-assemblages also evaluated. Finally a design procedure for the optimum design of HPDSPC corresponding to moment, shear forces and axial forces for the reinforced concrete beam-column joint sub-assemblage proposed. The fact that the implementation of material brittleness measure in the design of RC structures can improve structural reliability by providing uniform safety margins over a wide range of structural sizes and material compositions well recognized in the structural design and research. This lead to the development of high performance concrete for the optimized combination of various structural ratios in concrete for the optimized combination of various structural properties. The structural applications of HPDSPC, because of extremely high strength, will reduce dead load significantly as compared to normal weight concrete thereby offering substantial cost saving and by providing improved seismic response, longer spans, and thinner sections, less reinforcing steel and lower foundation cost. These cost effective parameters will make this material more versatile for use in various structural applications like beam-column joints in industries, airports, parking areas, docks, harbours, and also containers for hazardous material, safety boxes and mould & tools for polymer composites and metals.

Keywords: high performance densified small particle concrete (HPDSPC), steel fibre reinforced concrete (SFRC), slurry infiltrated concrete (SIFCON), Slurry infiltrated mat concrete (SIMCON)

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6 Hybrid GNN Based Machine Learning Forecasting Model For Industrial IoT Applications

Authors: Atish Bagchi, Siva Chandrasekaran

Abstract:

Background: According to World Bank national accounts data, the estimated global manufacturing value-added output in 2020 was 13.74 trillion USD. These manufacturing processes are monitored, modelled, and controlled by advanced, real-time, computer-based systems, e.g., Industrial IoT, PLC, SCADA, etc. These systems measure and manipulate a set of physical variables, e.g., temperature, pressure, etc. Despite the use of IoT, SCADA etc., in manufacturing, studies suggest that unplanned downtime leads to economic losses of approximately 864 billion USD each year. Therefore, real-time, accurate detection, classification and prediction of machine behaviour are needed to minimise financial losses. Although vast literature exists on time-series data processing using machine learning, the challenges faced by the industries that lead to unplanned downtimes are: The current algorithms do not efficiently handle the high-volume streaming data from industrial IoTsensors and were tested on static and simulated datasets. While the existing algorithms can detect significant 'point' outliers, most do not handle contextual outliers (e.g., values within normal range but happening at an unexpected time of day) or subtle changes in machine behaviour. Machines are revamped periodically as part of planned maintenance programmes, which change the assumptions on which original AI models were created and trained. Aim: This research study aims to deliver a Graph Neural Network(GNN)based hybrid forecasting model that interfaces with the real-time machine control systemand can detect, predict machine behaviour and behavioural changes (anomalies) in real-time. This research will help manufacturing industries and utilities, e.g., water, electricity etc., reduce unplanned downtimes and consequential financial losses. Method: The data stored within a process control system, e.g., Industrial-IoT, Data Historian, is generally sampled during data acquisition from the sensor (source) and whenpersistingin the Data Historian to optimise storage and query performance. The sampling may inadvertently discard values that might contain subtle aspects of behavioural changes in machines. This research proposed a hybrid forecasting and classification model which combines the expressive and extrapolation capability of GNN enhanced with the estimates of entropy and spectral changes in the sampled data and additional temporal contexts to reconstruct the likely temporal trajectory of machine behavioural changes. The proposed real-time model belongs to the Deep Learning category of machine learning and interfaces with the sensors directly or through 'Process Data Historian', SCADA etc., to perform forecasting and classification tasks. Results: The model was interfaced with a Data Historianholding time-series data from 4flow sensors within a water treatment plantfor45 days. The recorded sampling interval for a sensor varied from 10 sec to 30 min. Approximately 65% of the available data was used for training the model, 20% for validation, and the rest for testing. The model identified the anomalies within the water treatment plant and predicted the plant's performance. These results were compared with the data reported by the plant SCADA-Historian system and the official data reported by the plant authorities. The model's accuracy was much higher (20%) than that reported by the SCADA-Historian system and matched the validated results declared by the plant auditors. Conclusions: The research demonstrates that a hybrid GNN based approach enhanced with entropy calculation and spectral information can effectively detect and predict a machine's behavioural changes. The model can interface with a plant's 'process control system' in real-time to perform forecasting and classification tasks to aid the asset management engineers to operate their machines more efficiently and reduce unplanned downtimes. A series of trialsare planned for this model in the future in other manufacturing industries.

Keywords: GNN, Entropy, anomaly detection, industrial time-series, AI, IoT, Industry 4.0, Machine Learning

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5 Flood Risk Management in the Semi-Arid Regions of Lebanon - Case Study “Semi Arid Catchments, Ras Baalbeck and Fekha”

Authors: Essam Gooda, Chadi Abdallah, Hamdi Seif, Safaa Baydoun, Rouya Hdeib, Hilal Obeid

Abstract:

Floods are common natural disaster occurring in semi-arid regions in Lebanon. This results in damage to human life and deterioration of environment. Despite their destructive nature and their immense impact on the socio-economy of the region, flash floods have not received adequate attention from policy and decision makers. This is mainly because of poor understanding of the processes involved and measures needed to manage the problem. The current understanding of flash floods remains at the level of general concepts; most policy makers have yet to recognize that flash floods are distinctly different from normal riverine floods in term of causes, propagation, intensity, impacts, predictability, and management. Flash floods are generally not investigated as a separate class of event but are rather reported as part of the overall seasonal flood situation. As a result, Lebanon generally lacks policies, strategies, and plans relating specifically to flash floods. Main objective of this research is to improve flash flood prediction by providing new knowledge and better understanding of the hydrological processes governing flash floods in the East Catchments of El Assi River. This includes developing rainstorm time distribution curves that are unique for this type of study region; analyzing, investigating, and developing a relationship between arid watershed characteristics (including urbanization) and nearby villages flow flood frequency in Ras Baalbeck and Fekha. This paper discusses different levels of integration approach¬es between GIS and hydrological models (HEC-HMS & HEC-RAS) and presents a case study, in which all the tasks of creating model input, editing data, running the model, and displaying output results. The study area corresponds to the East Basin (Ras Baalbeck & Fakeha), comprising nearly 350 km2 and situated in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon. The case study presented in this paper has a database which is derived from Lebanese Army topographic maps for this region. Using ArcMap to digitizing the contour lines, streams & other features from the topographic maps. The digital elevation model grid (DEM) is derived for the study area. The next steps in this research are to incorporate rainfall time series data from Arseal, Fekha and Deir El Ahmar stations to build a hydrologic data model within a GIS environment and to combine ArcGIS/ArcMap, HEC-HMS & HEC-RAS models, in order to produce a spatial-temporal model for floodplain analysis at a regional scale. In this study, HEC-HMS and SCS methods were chosen to build the hydrologic model of the watershed. The model then calibrated using flood event that occurred between 7th & 9th of May 2014 which considered exceptionally extreme because of the length of time the flows lasted (15 hours) and the fact that it covered both the watershed of Aarsal and Ras Baalbeck. The strongest reported flood in recent times lasted for only 7 hours covering only one watershed. The calibrated hydrologic model is then used to build the hydraulic model & assessing of flood hazards maps for the region. HEC-RAS Model is used in this issue & field trips were done for the catchments in order to calibrated both Hydrologic and Hydraulic models. The presented models are a kind of flexible procedures for an ungaged watershed. For some storm events it delivers good results, while for others, no parameter vectors can be found. In order to have a general methodology based on these ideas, further calibration and compromising of results on the dependence of many flood events parameters and catchment properties is required.

Keywords: flood risk management, flash flood, semi arid region, El Assi River, hazard maps

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4 Hydrocarbon Source Rocks of the Maragh Low

Authors: Elhadi Nasr, Ibrahim Ramadan

Abstract:

Biostratigraphical analyses of well sections from the Maragh Low in the Eastern Sirt Basin has allowed high resolution correlations to be undertaken. Full integration of this data with available palaeoenvironmental, lithological, gravity, seismic, aeromagnetic, igneous, radiometric and wireline log information and a geochemical analysis of source rock quality and distribution has led to a more detailed understanding of the geological and the structural history of this area. Pre Sirt Unconformity two superimposed rifting cycles have been identified. The oldest is represented by the Amal Group of sediments and is of Late Carboniferous, Kasimovian / Gzelian to Middle Triassic, Anisian age. Unconformably overlying is a younger rift cycle which is represented the Sarir Group of sediments and is of Early Cretaceous, late Neocomian to Aptian in age. Overlying the Sirt Unconformity is the marine Late Cretaceous section. An assessment of pyrolysis results and a palynofacies analysis has allowed hydrocarbon source facies and quality to be determined. There are a number of hydrocarbon source rock horizons in the Maragh Low, these are sometimes vertically stacked and they are of fair to excellent quality. The oldest identified source rock is the Triassic Shale, this unit is unconformably overlain by sandstones belonging to the Sarir Group and conformably overlies a Triassic Siltstone unit. Palynological dating of the Triassic Shale unit indicates a Middle Triassic, Anisian age. The Triassic Shale is interpreted to have been deposited in a lacustrine palaeoenvironment. This particularly is evidenced by the dark, fine grained, organic rich nature of the sediment and is supported by palynofacies analysis and by the recovery of fish fossils. Geochemical analysis of the Triassic Shale indicates total organic carbon varying between 1.37 and 3.53. S2 pyrolysate yields vary between 2.15 mg/g and 6.61 mg/g and hydrogen indices vary between 156.91 and 278.91. The source quality of the Triassic Shale varies from being of fair to very good / rich. Linked to thermal maturity it is now a very good source for light oil and gas. It was once a very good to rich oil source. The Early Barremian Shale was also deposited in a lacustrine palaeoenvironment. Recovered palynomorphs indicate an Early Cretaceous, late Neocomian to early Barremian age. The Early Barremian Shale is conformably underlain and overlain by sandstone units belonging to the Sarir Group of sediments which are also of Early Cretaceous age. Geochemical analysis of the Early Barremian Shale indicates that it is a good oil source and was originally very good. Total organic carbon varies between 3.59% and 7%. S2 varies between 6.30 mg/g and 10.39 mg/g and the hydrogen indices vary between 148.4 and 175.5. A Late Barremian Shale unit of this age has also been identified in the central Maragh Low. Geochemical analyses indicate that total organic carbon varies between 1.05 and 2.38%, S2 pyrolysate between 1.6 and 5.34 mg/g and the hydrogen index between 152.4 and 224.4. It is a good oil source rock which is now mature. In addition to the non marine hydrocarbon source rocks pre Sirt Unconformity, three formations in the overlying Late Cretaceous section also provide hydrocarbon quality source rocks. Interbedded shales within the Rachmat Formation of Late Cretaceous, early Campanian age have total organic carbon ranging between, 0.7 and 1.47%, S2 pyrolysate varying between 1.37 and 4.00 mg/g and hydrogen indices varying between 195.7 and 272.1. The indication is that this unit would provide a fair gas source to a good oil source. Geochemical analyses of the overlying Tagrifet Limestone indicate that total organic carbon varies between 0.26% and 1.01%. S2 pyrolysate varies between 1.21 and 2.16 mg/g and hydrogen indices vary between 195.7 and 465.4. For the overlying Sirt Shale Formation of Late Cretaceous, late Campanian age, total organic carbon varies between 1.04% and 1.51%, S2 pyrolysate varies between 4.65 mg/g and 6.99 mg/g and the hydrogen indices vary between 151 and 462.9. The study has proven that both the Sirt Shale Formation and the Tagrifet Limestone are good to very good and rich sources for oil in the Maragh Low. High resolution biostratigraphical interpretations have been integrated and calibrated with thermal maturity determinations (Vitrinite Reflectance (%Ro), Spore Colour Index (SCI) and Tmax (ºC) and the determined present day geothermal gradient of 25ºC / Km for the Maragh Low. Interpretation of generated basin modelling profiles allows a detailed prediction of timing of maturation development of these source horizons and leads to a determination of amounts of missing section at major unconformities. From the results the top of the oil window (0.72% Ro) is picked as high as 10,700’ and the base of the oil window (1.35% Ro) assuming a linear trend and by projection is picked as low as 18,000’ in the Maragh Low. For the Triassic Shale the early phase of oil generation was in the Late Palaeocene / Early to Middle Eocene and the main phase of oil generation was in the Middle to Late Eocene. The Early Barremian Shale reached the main phase of oil generation in the Early Oligocene with late generation being reached in the Middle Miocene. For the Rakb Group section (Rachmat Formation, Tagrifet Limestone and Sirt Shale Formation) the early phase of oil generation started in the Late Eocene with the main phase of generation being between the Early Oligocene and the Early Miocene. From studying maturity profiles and from regional considerations it can be predicted that up to 500’ of sediment may have been deposited and eroded by the Sirt Unconformity in the central Maragh Low while up to 2000’ of sediment may have been deposited and then eroded to the south of the trough.

Keywords: Geochemical analysis of the source rocks from wells in Eastern Sirt Basin.

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3 Light Sensitive Plasmonic Nanostructures for Photonic Applications

Authors: Istvan Csarnovics, Attila Bonyar, Miklos Veres, Laszlo Himics, Attila Csik, Judit Kaman, Julia Burunkova, Geza Szanto, Laszlo Balazs, Sandor Kokenyesi

Abstract:

In this work, the performance of gold nanoparticles were investigated for stimulation of photosensitive materials for photonic applications. It was widely used for surface plasmon resonance experiments, not in the last place because of the manifestation of optical resonances in the visible spectral region. The localized surface plasmon resonance is rather easily observed in nanometer-sized metallic structures and widely used for measurements, sensing, in semiconductor devices and even in optical data storage. Firstly, gold nanoparticles on silica glass substrate satisfy the conditions for surface plasmon resonance in the green-red spectral range, where the chalcogenide glasses have the highest sensitivity. The gold nanostructures influence and enhance the optical, structural and volume changes and promote the exciton generation in gold nanoparticles/chalcogenide layer structure. The experimental results support the importance of localized electric fields in the photo-induced transformation of chalcogenide glasses as well as suggest new approaches to improve the performance of these optical recording media. Results may be utilized for direct, micrometre- or submicron size geometrical and optical pattern formation and used also for further development of the explanations of these effects in chalcogenide glasses. Besides of that, gold nanoparticles could be added to the organic light-sensitive material. The acrylate-based materials are frequently used for optical, holographic recording of optoelectronic elements due to photo-stimulated structural transformations. The holographic recording process and photo-polymerization effect could be enhanced by the localized plasmon field of the created gold nanostructures. Finally, gold nanoparticles widely used for electrochemical and optical sensor applications. Although these NPs can be synthesized in several ways, perhaps one of the simplest methods is the thermal annealing of pre-deposited thin films on glass or silicon surfaces. With this method, the parameters of the annealing process (time, temperature) and the pre-deposited thin film thickness influence and define the resulting size and distribution of the NPs on the surface. Localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) is a very sensitive optical phenomenon and can be utilized for a large variety of sensing purposes (chemical sensors, gas sensors, biosensors, etc.). Surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) is an analytical method which can significantly increase the yield of Raman scattering of target molecules adsorbed on the surface of metallic nanoparticles. The sensitivity of LSPR and SERS based devices is strongly depending on the used material and also on the size and geometry of the metallic nanoparticles. By controlling these parameters the plasmon absorption band can be tuned and the sensitivity can be optimized. The technological parameters of the generated gold nanoparticles were investigated and influence on the SERS and on the LSPR sensitivity was established. The LSPR sensitivity were simulated for gold nanocubes and nanospheres with MNPBEM Matlab toolbox. It was found that the enhancement factor (which characterize the increase in the peak shift for multi-particle arrangements compared to single-particle models) depends on the size of the nanoparticles and on the distance between the particles. This work was supported by GINOP- 2.3.2-15-2016-00041 project, which is co-financed by the European Union and European Social Fund. Istvan Csarnovics is grateful for the support through the New National Excellence Program of the Ministry of Human Capacities, supported by the ÚNKP-17-4 Attila Bonyár and Miklós Veres are grateful for the support of the János Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences.

Keywords: light sensitive nanocomposites, metallic nanoparticles, photonic application, plasmonic nanostructures

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2 A Comprehensive Study of Spread Models of Wildland Fires

Authors: Manavjit Singh Dhindsa, Ursula Das, Kshirasagar Naik, Marzia Zaman, Richard Purcell, Srinivas Sampalli, Abdul Mutakabbir, Chung-Horng Lung, Thambirajah Ravichandran

Abstract:

These days, wildland fires, also known as forest fires, are more prevalent than ever. Wildfires have major repercussions that affect ecosystems, communities, and the environment in several ways. Wildfires lead to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss, affecting ecosystems and causing soil erosion. They also contribute to poor air quality by releasing smoke and pollutants that pose health risks, especially for individuals with respiratory conditions. Wildfires can damage infrastructure, disrupt communities, and cause economic losses. The economic impact of firefighting efforts, combined with their direct effects on forestry and agriculture, causes significant financial difficulties for the areas impacted. This research explores different forest fire spread models and presents a comprehensive review of various techniques and methodologies used in the field. A forest fire spread model is a computational or mathematical representation that is used to simulate and predict the behavior of a forest fire. By applying scientific concepts and data from empirical studies, these models attempt to capture the intricate dynamics of how a fire spreads, taking into consideration a variety of factors like weather patterns, topography, fuel types, and environmental conditions. These models assist authorities in understanding and forecasting the potential trajectory and intensity of a wildfire. Emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of wildfire dynamics, this research explores the approaches, assumptions, and findings derived from various models. By using a comparison approach, a critical analysis is provided by identifying patterns, strengths, and weaknesses among these models. The purpose of the survey is to further wildfire research and management techniques. Decision-makers, researchers, and practitioners can benefit from the useful insights that are provided by synthesizing established information. Fire spread models provide insights into potential fire behavior, facilitating authorities to make informed decisions about evacuation activities, allocating resources for fire-fighting efforts, and planning for preventive actions. Wildfire spread models are also useful in post-wildfire mitigation strategies as they help in assessing the fire's severity, determining high-risk regions for post-fire dangers, and forecasting soil erosion trends. The analysis highlights the importance of customized modeling approaches for various circumstances and promotes our understanding of the way forest fires spread. Some of the known models in this field are Rothermel’s wildland fuel model, FARSITE, WRF-SFIRE, FIRETEC, FlamMap, FSPro, cellular automata model, and others. The key characteristics that these models consider include weather (includes factors such as wind speed and direction), topography (includes factors like landscape elevation), and fuel availability (includes factors like types of vegetation) among other factors. The models discussed are physics-based, data-driven, or hybrid models, also utilizing ML techniques like attention-based neural networks to enhance the performance of the model. In order to lessen the destructive effects of forest fires, this initiative aims to promote the development of more precise prediction tools and effective management techniques. The survey expands its scope to address the practical needs of numerous stakeholders. Access to enhanced early warning systems enables decision-makers to take prompt action. Emergency responders benefit from improved resource allocation strategies, strengthening the efficacy of firefighting efforts.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, deep learning, forest fire management, fire risk assessment, fire simulation, machine learning, remote sensing, wildfire modeling

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1 Tackling the Decontamination Challenge: Nanorecycling of Plastic Waste

Authors: Jocelyn Doucet, Jean-Philippe Laviolette, Ali Eslami

Abstract:

The end-of-life management and recycling of polymer wastes remains a key environment issue in on-going efforts to increase resource efficiency and attaining GHG emission reduction targets. Half of all the plastics ever produced were made in the last 13 years, and only about 16% of that plastic waste is collected for recycling, while 25% is incinerated, 40% is landfilled, and 19% is unmanaged and leaks in the environment and waterways. In addition to the plastic collection issue, the UN recently published a report on chemicals in plastics, which adds another layer of challenge when integrating recycled content containing toxic products into new products. To tackle these important issues, innovative solutions are required. Chemical recycling of plastics provides new complementary alternatives to the current recycled plastic market by converting waste material into a high value chemical commodity that can be reintegrated in a variety of applications, making the total market size of the output – virgin-like, high value products - larger than the market size of the input – plastic waste. Access to high-quality feedstock also remains a major obstacle, primarily due to material contamination issues. Pyrowave approaches this challenge with its innovative nano-recycling technology, which purifies polymers at the molecular level, removing undesirable contaminants and restoring the resin to its virgin state without having to depolymerise it. This breakthrough approach expands the range of plastics that can be effectively recycled, including mixed plastics with various contaminants such as lead, inorganic pigments, and flame retardants. The technology allows yields below 100ppm, and purity can be adjusted to an infinitesimal level depending on the customer's specifications. The separation of the polymer and contaminants in Pyrowave's nano-recycling process offers the unique ability to customize the solution on targeted additives and contaminants to be removed based on the difference in molecular size. This precise control enables the attainment of a final polymer purity equivalent to virgin resin. The patented process involves dissolving the contaminated material using a specially formulated solvent, purifying the mixture at the molecular level, and subsequently extracting the solvent to yield a purified polymer resin that can directly be reintegrated in new products without further treatment. Notably, this technology offers simplicity, effectiveness, and flexibility while minimizing environmental impact and preserving valuable resources in the manufacturing circuit. Pyrowave has successfully applied this nano-recycling technology to decontaminate polymers and supply purified, high-quality recycled plastics to critical industries, including food-contact compliance. The technology is low-carbon, electrified, and provides 100% traceable resins with properties identical to those of virgin resins. Additionally, the issue of low recycling rates and the limited market for traditionally hard-to-recycle plastic waste has fueled the need for new complementary alternatives. Chemical recycling, such as Pyrowave's microwave depolymerization, presents a sustainable and efficient solution by converting plastic waste into high-value commodities. By employing microwave catalytic depolymerization, Pyrowave enables a truly circular economy of plastics, particularly in treating polystyrene waste to produce virgin-like styrene monomers. This revolutionary approach boasts low energy consumption, high yields, and a reduced carbon footprint. Pyrowave offers a portfolio of sustainable, low-carbon, electric solutions to give plastic waste a second life and paves the way to the new circular economy of plastics. Here, particularly for polystyrene, we show that styrene monomer yields from Pyrowave’s polystyrene microwave depolymerization reactor is 2,2 to 1,5 times higher than that of the thermal conventional pyrolysis. In addition, we provide a detailed understanding of the microwave assisted depolymerization via analyzing the effects of microwave power, pyrolysis time, microwave receptor and temperature on the styrene product yields. Furthermore, we investigate life cycle environmental impact assessment of microwave assisted pyrolysis of polystyrene in commercial-scale production. Finally, it is worth pointing out that Pyrowave is able to treat several tons of polystyrene to produce virgin styrene monomers and manage waste/contaminated polymeric materials as well in a truly circular economy.

Keywords: nanorecycling, nanomaterials, plastic recycling, depolymerization

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