Search results for: urban growth prediction

Authors: Shogo Kato, Daisuke Okamoto, Satoko Tsuru, Yoshinori Iizuka, Ryoko Shimono

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Healthcare safety has been perceived important. It is essential to prevent troubles in healthcare processes for healthcare safety. Trouble prevention is based on trouble prediction using accumulated knowledge on processes, troubles, and countermeasures. However, information on troubles has not been accumulated in hospitals in the appropriate structure, and it has not been utilized effectively to prevent troubles. In the previous study, though a detailed knowledge acquisition process for trouble prediction was proposed, the knowledgebase for countermeasures was not involved. In this paper, we aim to propose the structure of the knowledgebase for countermeasures in the knowledge acquisition process for trouble prediction in healthcare process. We first design the structure of countermeasures and propose the knowledge representation form on countermeasures. Then, we evaluate the validity of the proposal, by applying it into an actual hospital.

Keywords: trouble prevention, knowledge structure, structured knowledge, reusable knowledge

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Authors: Oluwaponmile David Alao

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Due to an increase in the death rate as a result of heart attack. There is need to develop a system that can be useful in the diagnosis of the disease at the medical centre. This system will help in preventing misdiagnosis that may occur from the medical practitioner or the physicians. In this research work, heart disease dataset obtained from UCI repository has been used to develop an intelligent prediction diagnosis system. The system is modeled on a feedforwad neural network and trained with back propagation neural network. A recognition rate of 86% is obtained from the testing of the network.

Keywords: heart disease, artificial neural network, diagnosis, prediction system

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Authors: Joy Ghosh, Debasmita Biswas

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The road network of any area is the most important indicator of regional planning. For proper utilization of urban road networks, the structural parameters such as connectivity and accessibility should be analyzed and evaluated. This paper aims to explain the application of GIS on urban road network connectivity and accessibility analysis with a case study of Chandannagar City. This paper has been made to analyze the road network connectivity through various connectivity measurements like the total number of nodes and links, Cyclomatic Number, Alpha Index, Beta Index, Gamma index, Eta index, Pi index, Theta Index, and Aggregated Transport Score, Road Density based on existing road network in Chandannagar city in India. Accessibility is measured through the shortest Path Matrix, associate Number, and Shimbel Index. Various urban services, such as schools, banks, Hospitals, petrol pumps, ATMs, police stations, theatres, parks, etc., are considered for the accessibility analysis for each ward. This paper also highlights the relationship between urban land use/ land cover (LULC) and urban road network and population density using various spatial and statistical measurements. The datasets were collected through a field survey of 33 wards of the Chandannagar Municipal Corporation area, and the secondary data were collected through an open street map and satellite image of LANDSAT8 OLI & TIRS from USGS. Chandannagar was actually once a French colony, and at that time, various sort of planning was applied, but now Chandannagar city continues to grow haphazardly because that city is facing some problems; the knowledge gained from this paper helps to create a more efficient and accessible road network. Therefore, it would be suggested that some wards need to improve their connectivity and accessibility for the future growth and development of Chandannagar.

Keywords: accessibility, connectivity, transport, road network

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Authors: Monika Yadav

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The incorporation of a healthy lifestyle significantly contributes to the advancement of economic development. Urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth have enhanced living conditions, promoting sedentary behaviours among individuals with elevated socio-economic statuses. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased globally, along with the rise in living standards, posing a growing health risk. Overweight and obesity are known to be precursors to a range of modifiable and metabolic risk factors, contributing to the increase in lifestyle diseases. Unhealthy dietary choices and lifestyle practices primarily drive these diseases. Lifestyle diseases refer to chronic and non-communicable illnesses, encompassing conditions such as hypertension, heart disease, kidney disorders, infertility, polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOD), diabetes, respiratory diseases, and certain forms of cancer. This study examines the prevalence of lifestyle diseases among urban Indian women, explicitly differentiating between individuals with normal weight and those classified as obese. The main aim of this study is to investigate whether there is a correlation between a higher body mass index (BMI) in women and an increased vulnerability to lifestyle diseases when compared to women with a normal BMI. This research provides insights into the intricate relationship between lifestyle, health, and economic development within urban areas.

Keywords: urbanization, economic development, BMI, NCDs, urban, women, lifestyle practices

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Authors: Ali Cheshmehzangi, Ayotunde Dawodu

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In urban planning, Floor Area Ratio (FAR) of the site plays a major role in the multiplicity of performances, from humane living environments to energy performance. When one considers the astounding volume of new housing that is going to be constructed across the globe during the next few decades due to growing urbanisation (e.g. particularly in developing world), it is imperative that we have an empirically grounded grasp of which building configurations are more energy efficient. As a common planning metric, it would be helpful to know exactly how managing FAR connects with energy efficiency. Hence, this study puts together a set of modelling of various FARs for a typical residential compound and address the considerations of energy planning integration in the practice of building configuration and urban planning. Such decision makings at the planning and design stage enable us to provide pathways of optimising urban climate at mesoscale of the built environment, i.e. the neighbourhood or community level. In this study, a comparative study is conducted using Eco-Tect Software, using a case study in the City of Ningbo, China. Findings of the study contribute to identifying scenarios of various FAR use and energy planning at mesoscale. The final results contribute to studies in urban climate, from the perspectives of urban planning, energy planning, and urban modelling.

Keywords: China, energy planning, FAR, floor-area-ratio, mesoscale, urban climate, urban modelling

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Authors: Ruan Yi-Chen, Li Wang-Ming, Fang Yuan

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With the rapid growth of urbanization in China in recent years, public services are in short supply because of expanding population and limitation of financial support, which makes delicate configuration of public service facilities to become a trend in urban planning. Besides, the facility configuration standard implemented in China is equal to the whole the urban area without considering internal differences in it. Therefore, this article focuses on population Spatial disparities analysis in order to optimize facility configuration in communities of main city district. The used data, including population of 93 communities during 2010 to 2015, comes from GongShu district, Hangzhou city, PRC. Through the analysis of population data, especially the age structure of those communities, the communities finally divided into 3 types. Obviously, urban public service facilities allocation situation directly affect the quality of residents common lives, which turns out that deferent kinds of communities with deferent groups of citizens will have divergences in facility demanding. So in the end of the article, strategies of facility configuration will be proposed based on the population analysis in order to optimize the quantity and location of facilities with delicacy.

Keywords: delicacy, facility configuration, population spatial disparities, urban area

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Authors: Jingqian Xiao

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The rapid wave of urbanization triggered by China’s economic growth over the past few decades has inevitably impacted the country’s educational landscape. Educational spaces in China shifted during the 1990s when, due to the government’s tax reforms, large numbers of rural schools were abolished or merged with urban schools, resulting in an “urbanization” of school content and values. While urbanized education is now the status quo, there is as yet no literature review, to our best knowledge, that comprehensively summarizes academic work on this phenomenon. Besides, most research on Chinese educational urbanization relies on basic policy deductions, and there is room for improvement in both the quality and quantity of empirical research on this topic. This paper, therefore, reviews relevant literature on educational urbanization in China from three interrelated factors that shape educational inequality between urban and rural China, namely the urbanization in educational space, school content, and educational values. Results find that the main discussion on Chinese educational urbanization often addresses how Chinese rural education can be improved by reforming the urbanization model to revitalize rural society. While the complete urbanization of Chinese education does not seem feasible, the rapidly changing nature of China’s development patterns and political landscape means the course of Chinese education may shift at any time. When the government does decide to fulfill its intentions to improve the countryside, many formerly dilapidated rural schools may be revived, but for the moment, both rural and urban education in China suffers from governmental neglect. In addition, the breakout of COVID-19, which led to a sudden spread of online education that reopened the gap between the educational conditions and the cultural capital of families in rural and urban areas, has also posed new challenges for China’s attempts to resolve conflicting interests between urban and rural schools and promote educational equality.

Keywords: Chinese education, educational inequality, rural and urban education, urbanization in education

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Authors: JingWei Yu, Hong Yang Yu

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At present, the increasingly serious air pollution in various cities of China has made people pay more attention to the air quality index(hereinafter referred to as AQI) of their living areas. To face this situation, it is of great significance to predict air pollution in heavily polluted areas. In this paper, based on the time series model of LSTM, a spatiotemporal prediction model of PM2.5 concentration in Mianyang, Sichuan Province, is established. The model fully considers the temporal variability and spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5 concentration. The spatial correlation of air quality at different locations is based on the Air quality status of other nearby monitoring stations, including AQI and meteorological data to predict the air quality of a monitoring station. The experimental results show that the method has good prediction accuracy that the fitting degree with the actual measured data reaches more than 0.7, which can be applied to the modeling and prediction of the spatial and temporal distribution of regional PM2.5 concentration.

Keywords: LSTM, PM2.5, neural networks, spatio-temporal prediction

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Authors: An-Shik Yang, Chih-Yung Wen, Chiang-Ho Cheng, Yu-Hsuan Juan

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The objective of this study is to conduct computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations for evaluating the cooling efficacy from vegetation implanted in a public park in the Taipei, Taiwan. To probe the impacts of park renewal by means of adding three pavilions and supplementary green areas on urban microclimates, the simulated results have revealed that the park having a higher percentage of green coverage ratio (GCR) tended to experience a better cooling effect. These findings can be used to explore the effects of different greening modifications on urban environments for achieving an effective thermal comfort in urban public spaces.

Keywords: CFD simulations, Green Coverage Ratio, Urban heat island, Urban Public Park

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Authors: Sadaf Sahar, Usman Qamar, Sadaf Ayaz

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In the software development lifecycle, the quality prediction techniques hold a prime importance in order to minimize future design errors and expensive maintenance. There are many techniques proposed by various researchers, but with the increasing complexity of the software lifecycle model, it is crucial to develop a flexible system which can cater for the factors which in result have an impact on the quality of the end product. These factors include properties of the software development process and the product along with its operation conditions. In this paper, a neural network (perceptron) based software quality prediction technique is proposed. Using this technique, the stakeholders can predict the quality of the resulting software during the early phases of the lifecycle saving time and resources on future elimination of design errors and costly maintenance. This technique can be brought into practical use using successful training.

Keywords: software quality, fuzzy logic, perception, prediction

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Authors: Yun Ma, Jiajun Lu

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President Xi Jinping has clearly stated the need to more effectively advance the process of urbanization centered on people, striving to shape cities into spaces that are healthier, safer, and more livable. However, during the development and construction of mountainous cities, numerous uncertain disruptive factors have emerged, one after another, posing severe challenges to the city's overall development. Therefore, building resilient cities and creating high-quality urban ecosystems and safety systems have become the core and crux of achieving sustainable urban development. This paper takes the central urban area of Chongqing as the research object and establishes an urban resilience assessment indicator system from four dimensions: society, economy, ecology, and infrastructure. It employs the entropy weight method and TOPSIS model to assess the urban resilience level of the central urban area of Chongqing from 2019 to 2022. The results indicate that i. the resilience level of the central urban area of Chongqing is unevenly distributed, showing a spatial pattern of "high in the middle and low around"; it also demonstrates differentiation across different dimensions; ii. due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the overall resilience level of the central urban area of Chongqing has declined significantly, with low recovery capacity and slow improvement in urban resilience. Finally, based on the four selected dimensions, this paper proposes optimization strategies for urban resilience in mountainous cities, providing a basis for Chongqing to build a safe and livable new city.

Keywords: mountainous urban areas, central urban area of chongqing, entropy weight method, TOPSIS model, ArcGIS

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Authors: Wen Liu, Errol Haarhoff, Lee Beattie

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In 2010, New Zealand’s central government re-organise the local governments arrangements in Auckland, New Zealand by amalgamating its previous regional council and seven supporting local government units into a single unitary council, the Auckland Council. The Auckland Council is charged with providing local government services to approximately 1.5 million people (a third of New Zealand’s total population). This includes addressing Auckland’s strategic urban growth management and setting its urban planning policy directions for the next 40 years. This is expressed in the first ever spatial plan in the region – the Auckland Plan (2012). The Auckland plan supports implementing a compact city model by concentrating the larger part of future urban growth and development in, and around, existing and proposed transit centres, with the intention of Auckland to become globally competitive city and achieving ‘the most liveable city in the world’. Turning that vision into reality is operatized through the statutory land use plan, the Auckland Unitary Plan. The Unitary plan replaced the previous regional and local statutory plans when it became operative in 2016, becoming the ‘rule book’ on how to manage and develop the natural and built environment, using land use zones and zone standards. Common to the broad range of literature on urban growth management, one significant issue stands out about intensification. The ‘gap’ between strategic planning and what has been achieved is evident in the argument for the ‘compact’ urban form. Although the compact city model may have a wide range of merits, the extent to which these are actualized largely rely on how intensification actually is delivered. The transformation of the rhetoric of the residential intensification model into reality is of profound influence, yet has enjoyed limited empirical analysis. In Auckland, the establishment of the Auckland Plan set up the strategies to deliver intensification into diversified arenas. Nonetheless, planning policy itself does not necessarily achieve the envisaged objectives, delivering the planning system and high capacity to enhance and sustain plan implementation is another demanding agenda. Though the Auckland Plan provides a wide ranging strategic context, its actual delivery is beholden on the Unitary Plan. However, questions have been asked if the Unitary Plan has the necessary statutory tools to deliver the Auckland Plan’s policy outcomes. In Auckland, there is likely to be continuing tension between the strategies for intensification and their envisaged objectives, and made it doubtful whether the main principles of the intensification strategies could be realized. This raises questions over whether the Auckland Plan’s policy goals can be achieved in practice, including delivering ‘quality compact city’ and residential intensification. Taking Auckland as an example of traditionally sprawl cities, this article intends to investigate the efficacy plan making and implementation directed towards higher density development. This article explores the process of plan development, plan making and implementation frameworks of the first ever spatial plan in Auckland, so as to explicate the objectives and processes involved, and consider whether this will facilitate decision making processes to realize the anticipated intensive urban development.

Keywords: urban intensification, sustainable development, plan making, governance and implementation

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Authors: Gonzalez Carlos, Martinez Fransisco

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There are various types of analysis that allow us to involve seismic phenomena that cause strong requirements for structures that are designed by society; one of them is a probabilistic analysis which works from prediction equations that have been created based on metadata seismic compiled in different regions. These equations form models that are used to describe the 5% damped pseudo spectra response for the various zones considering some easily known input parameters. The biggest problem for the creation of these models requires data with great robust statistics that support the results, and there are several places where this type of information is not available, for which the use of alternative methodologies helps to achieve adjustments to different models of seismic prediction.

Keywords: GMPM, 5% damped pseudo-response spectra, models of seismic prediction, PSHA

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Authors: Sisi Xia, Dezhuan Tao, Junyan Yang, Weiting Xiong

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Under the background of Chinese urbanization changing from incremental development to stock development, the completion of urban public service facilities is essential to urban spatial quality. As public services facilities is a huge and complicated system, clarifying the various types of internal rules associated with the land market price is key to optimizing spatial layout. This paper takes Wuxi City as a representative sample location and establishes the digital analysis platform using urban price and several high-precision big data acquisition methods. On this basis, it analyzes the coupling relationship between different public service categories and land price, summarizing the coupling patterns of urban public facilities distribution and urban land price fluctuations. Finally, the internal mechanism within each of the two elements is explored, providing the reference of the optimum layout of urban planning and public service facilities.

Keywords: public service facilities, land price, urban spatial morphology, big data

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Jeremiah Mutamba

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Water is a critical resource for sustainable economic growth and social development. It enables societies to thrive and influences every urban center’s future. Thus, water must always be available in the right quantity and quality. However, in South Africa - a known physically water scarce nation – the future of sustainable urban supply of water may be in jeopardy. The country facing a water crisis influenced by insufficient infrastructure investment and maintenance, recurrent droughts and climate variation, human induced water quality deterioration, as well as growing lack of technical capacity in water institutions, particularly local municipalities. Aside of the eight metropolitan municipalities for the country, most municipalities struggle with provision of reliable water to their citizens. These municipalities contend with having now capable engineers, aging infrastructure with concomitant high system water losses (of 30% and upwards), coupled with growing water demand from expanding industries and population growth. Also, a significant portion (44%) of national water treatment plants are in critically poor condition, requiring urgent rehabilitation. Municipalities also struggle to raise funding to instate projects. All these factors militate against sustainable urban water supply in the country. Urgent mitigation measures are required. This paper seeks to review the extent of the current water supply challenges in South Africa’s urban centers, including searching for practical and cost-effective measures. The study followed a qualitative approach, combining desktop literature research, interviews with key sector stakeholders, and a workshop. Phenomenological data analysis technique was used to study and examine interview data and secondary desktop data. Preliminary findings established the building of technical or engineering capacity, reversal of the high physical water losses, rehabilitation of poor condition and dysfunctional water treatment works, diversification of water resource mix, and water scarcity awareness programs as possible practical solutions. Other proposed solutions include the use of performance-based or value-based contracting to fund initiatives to reduce high system water losses. Out-come based arrangements for revenue increasing water loss reduction projects were considered more practical in funding-stressed local municipalities. If proactively implemented in an integrated manner, these proposed solutions are likely to ensure sustainable urban water supply in South African urban centers in the future.

Keywords: sustainable, water scarcity, water supply, South Africa

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Authors: Veronika Antoniou, Rene Carraz, Yiorgos Hadjichristou

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The Green Urban Lab took the form of public installations that were placed at various locations in four cities in Cyprus. These installations - through which a series of events, activities, workshops and research took place - were the main tools in regenerating a series of urban public spaces in Cyprus. The purpose of this project was to identify issues and opportunities related to public space and to offer guidelines on how design and participatory democracy improvements could strengthen civil society, while raising the quality of the urban public scene. Giant inflatable structures were injected in important urban fragments in order to accommodate series of events. The design and playful installation generated a wide community engagement. The fluid presence of the installations acted as a catalyst for social interaction. They were accessed and viewed effortlessly and surprisingly, creating opportunities to rediscover public spaces.

Keywords: bottom-up initiatives, creativity, public space, social innovation, urban environments

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Authors: Kang-Hyun Leem, Myung-Gyou Kim, Hye Kyung Kim

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Eggs have long been an important contributor to the nutritional quality of the human, and recognized as a very valuable source of proteins for human nutrition. Egg yolk is composed of various important chemical substances for human health. Growth means not only the increase of body weight but also the elongation of height and the enlargement of each organ's anatomical and morphological size. A calcium shortage causes the growth retardation on the body growth. In this study, we examined the therapeutic effects of egg yolk peptide (EYP) on the retardation of the longitudinal bone growth induced by low-calcium diet (0.05%) in adolescent rats. Low calcium diets were administrated for 15 days. During the last five days, calcium and/or vitamin D and/or EYP were administrated. The body weights, longitudinal bone growth rates, the heights of growth plates, and bone morphogenetic protein (BMP)-2 and insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1 expressions were measured using histochemical analysis. Low calcium diets caused the significant reduction in body weight gains and the longitudinal bone growth. The heights of growth plates and the expressions of BMP-2 and IGF-1 showed the impairment of body growth as well. Calcium and/or vitamin D administration could not significantly increase the longitudinal bone growth. However, calcium, vitamin D, and EYP administration significantly increased the bone growth, the growth plate height, and BMP-2 and IGF-1 expressions. These results suggest that EYP enhances the longitudinal bone growth in the calcium and/or vitamin D deficiency and it could be a promising agent for the treatment of children suffering from malnutrition.

Keywords: egg yolk peptide, low-calcium diet, longitudinal bone growth, morphogenetic protein-2, insulin-like growth factor-1, vitamin D

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Authors: Shiva Kumar, G. S. Vijay, Srinivas Pai P., Shrinivasa Rao B. R.

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In the present study RBF neural networks were used for predicting the performance and emission parameters of a biodiesel engine. Engine experiments were carried out in a 4 stroke diesel engine using blends of diesel and Honge methyl ester as the fuel. Performance parameters like BTE, BSEC, Tech and emissions from the engine were measured. These experimental results were used for ANN modeling. RBF center initialization was done by random selection and by using Clustered techniques. Network was trained by using fixed and varying widths for the RBF units. It was observed that RBF results were having a good agreement with the experimental results. Networks trained by using clustering technique gave better results than using random selection of centers in terms of reduced MRE and increased prediction accuracy. The average MRE for the performance parameters was 3.25% with the prediction accuracy of 98% and for emissions it was 10.4% with a prediction accuracy of 80%.

Keywords: radial basis function networks, emissions, performance parameters, fuzzy c means

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Authors: Osama A. Terfas, Abdelhakim A. Hameda, Abdusalam A. Alktiwi

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An investigation on ductile crack growth of shallow semi-elliptical surface cracks with a/w=0.2, a/c=0.33 under bending was carried out, where a is the crack depth, w is the plate thickness and c is the crack length at surface. Finite element analysis and experiments were modelling and the crack growth model were verified with experimental data. The results showed that the initial crack shape was no longer maintained as the crack developed under ductile tearing. The maximum growth at the deepest point at early stages was stopped when the crack depth reached half thickness and growth occurred beneath surface. Excellent agreement in the crack shape patterns was observed between the experiments and the crack growth model.

Keywords: crack growth, ductile tearing, mean stress, surface cracks

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Authors: Messis A., Adjebli A., Ayeche R., Talbi M., Tighilet K., Louardiane M.

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Cancers are the second cause of death worldwide. Prevalence and incidence of cancers is getting increased by aging and population growth. This study aims to predict and modeling the evolution of breast, Colorectal, Lung, Bladder and Prostate cancers over the period of 2014-2019. In this study, data were analyzed using time series analysis with double exponential smoothing method to forecast the future pattern. To describe and fit the appropriate models, Minitab statistical software version 17 was used. Between 2014 and 2019, the overall trend in the raw number of new cancer cases registered has been increasing over time; the change in observations over time has been increasing. Our forecast model is validated since we have good prediction for the period 2020 and data not available for 2021 and 2022. Time series analysis showed that the double exponential smoothing is an efficient tool to model the future data on the raw number of new cancer cases.

Keywords: cancer, time series, prediction, double exponential smoothing

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Authors: Vidya Yadav

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Migration is the demographic process that links rural to urban areas, generating or spurring the growth of cities. Evidence shows the role of the city as a production processes. It looks the city as a power of centre, and a centre of change. It has been observed that not only the professionals want to settle down in an urban area but rural labourers are also coming to cities for employment. These are the people who are compelled to migrate to metropolises because of lack of employment opportunities in their place of residence. However, the cities also fail to provide adequate employment because of limited job opportunity creation and capital-intensive industrialization. So these masses of incoming migrants are force to take up whatever employment absorption is available to them particularly in urban informal activities. Ultimately with this informal job they are compelled to stay in the slum areas, which is another form of deprived housing colonies. The paper seeks to examine the evidences of poverty induced migration from rural to urban areas (particularly in urban agglomeration). The present paper utilizes an abundant rich source of census migration data (D-Series) of 1991-2001. Result shows that Mumbai remain as the most attractive place to migrate. The migrants are mainly from the major states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Rajasthan. Male dominated migration is related mostly for employment and females due to marriages. The picture of occupational absorption of migrants who moved for employment, cross classified with educational status. Result shows that illiterate males are primarily engaged in low grade production processing work. Illiterate’s females engaged in service sectors; but these are actually very low grade services in urban informal sectors in India like maid servants, domestic help, hawkers, vendors or vegetables sellers. Among the higher educational level, a small percentage of males and females got absorbed in professional or clerical work but the percentage has been increased in the period 1991-2001.

Keywords: informal, job, migration, urban

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Authors: Javed Mallick

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In metropolitan areas, rapid changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have ecological and environmental consequences. Saudi Arabia's cities have experienced tremendous urban growth since the 1990s, resulting in urban heat islands, groundwater depletion, air pollution, loss of ecosystem services, and so on. From 1990 to 2020, this study examines the variance and heterogeneity in land surface temperature (LST) caused by LULC changes in Abha-Khamis Mushyet, Saudi Arabia. LULC was mapped using the support vector machine (SVM). The mono-window algorithm was used to calculate the land surface temperature (LST). To identify LST clusters, the local indicator of spatial associations (LISA) model was applied to spatiotemporal LST maps. In addition, the parallel coordinate (PCP) method was used to investigate the relationship between LST clusters and urban biophysical variables as a proxy for LULC. According to LULC maps, urban areas increased by more than 330% between 1990 and 2018. Between 1990 and 2018, built-up areas had an 83.6% transitional probability. Furthermore, between 1990 and 2020, vegetation and agricultural land were converted into built-up areas at a rate of 17.9% and 21.8%, respectively. Uneven LULC changes in built-up areas result in more LST hotspots. LST hotspots were associated with high NDBI but not NDWI or NDVI. This study could assist policymakers in developing mitigation strategies for urban heat islands

Keywords: land use land cover mapping, land surface temperature, support vector machine, LISA model, parallel coordinate plot

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Authors: P. S. Van Staden, M. M. Campbell

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Vacant City of Cape Town-owned land lying un-utilized and -productive could be developed for land uses such as urban agriculture that may improve the livelihoods of low income families. The new City of Cape Town zoning scheme includes an Urban Agriculture zoning for the first time. Unstructured qualitative interviews among town planners revealed their optimism about this inclusion as it will provide low-income residents with opportunities to generate an income. An existing farming community at Philippi, located within the municipal boundary of the city, was approached and empirical data obtained through questionnaires provided proof that urban agriculture could be viable in a coastal metropolitan city such as Cape Town even if farmers only produce for their own households. The lease method proposed for urban agriculture is a usufruct agreement conferring the right to another party, other than the legal owner, to enjoy the use and advantages of the property.

Keywords: land uses, urban agriculture, agriculture, food engineering

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Authors: R. A. Retno Hastijanti, David Agus Sagita, Arum Lintang Cahyani, Tectona Radike, Andreas Suluh Putra

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Surabaya, is one of the oldest cities in Indonesia. Most of the old quarter city of Surabaya is an ancient Kampong. Ketandan is one ancient Kampong in the center of Surabaya, surrounded by a thriving trade area. These conditions make Kampong vulnerably degraded of environmental quality and tended to lose their cultural identity. Norms and values eroded by the rapid development of its local surroundings. Through Kampong conservation programs, Surabaya city government established Ketandan as one of the urban heritage. To achieve the ideal condition of urban heritage, public participation is required. One thing that can generate a motivation for Kampong Ketandan community participation is to rediscover the identity of Kampong Ketandan. This research aims to explore the appropriate method to rediscover the identity of Kampong Ketandan. Through qualitative research methods, based on observations and focus group discussions, it was concluded that mural mentoring program was the best method that can be accepted by the Kampong community to rediscover their identity. Mural as one of the urban art form, able to motivate Kampong community to express their self and bring an icon to their Kampong. The benefits of this research are to provide input to the city government and the private sector to preserve urban heritage, moreover, to transform an urban heritage into a productive space in urban areas in order to enhance city revenues.

Keywords: Kampong, Kampong Ketandan, mural, Surabaya, urban, urban heritage, urban art

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Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

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The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

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Authors: Abubakar Sadiq Mensah

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The Knowledge of the population growth of a nation is paramount to national planning. The population of a place is studied and a model developed over a period of time, Matrices is used to form model for population growth. The eigenvalue ƛ of the matrix A and its corresponding eigenvector X is such that AX = ƛX is calculated. The stable age distribution of the population is obtained using the eigenvalue and the characteristic polynomial. Hence, estimation could be made using eigenvalues and eigenvectors.

Keywords: eigenvalues, eigenvectors, population, growth/stability

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Authors: Ayşen Edirneligil, Mehmet Mucuk

Abstract:

In developing countries, one of the most important restrictions about the economic growth is the lack of national savings which are supposed to finance the investments. In order to overcome this restriction and achieve the higher rate of economic growth by increasing the level of output, countries choose the external borrowing. However, there is a dispute in the literature over the correlation between external debt and economic growth. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of external debt on Turkish economic growth by using VAR analysis with the quarterly data over the period of 2002:01-2014:04. In this respect, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse- Response Function and Variance Decomposition Tests will be used for analyses. Empirical findings show that there is no cointegration in the long run.

Keywords: external debt, economic growth, Turkish economy, time series analysis

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Authors: Raziyeh Teimouri, Sadasivam Karuppannan, Alpana Sivam, Ning Gu

Abstract:

Urban Green Space (UGS) is one of the most critical components of urban systems to create sustainable cities. UGS has valuable social benefits that closely correlate with people's life quality. Studying social sustainability factors that can be achieved by green spaces is required for optimal UGS planning to increase urban social sustainability. This paper aims to identify key factors that enhance urban social sustainability through UGS planning. To reach the goal of the study international experts’ survey has been conducted. According to the results of the survey analysis, factors of proper distribution, links to public transportation, walkable access, sense of place, social interactions, public education, safety and security, walkability and cyclability, physical activity and recreational facilities, suitability for all ages, disabled people, women, and children are among the key factors that should consider in UGS planning programs to promote urban social sustainability.

Keywords: UGS, planning, social sustainability, key factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 79